Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
944 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south of the region tonight with
the scattered showers and thunderstorms ending. A drier and less
humid air mass will be over the region tomorrow with seasonable
temperatures. High pressure will be in control Sunday night into
the middle of next week with dry weather, moderating temperatures
back above normal and fairly comfortable humidity levels.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Updated at 945 pm. Have tweaked the grids to cover for a line
of showers located near the cold front from western
Massachusetts through the Capital District to the northern
Catskills as of 930 pm. This batch of showers will sag
southeastward with the front during the next few hours, with
scattered showers getting down into the mid-Hudson valley and
northwest Connecticut by around midnight. Dewpoints are still in
the lower 70s immediately behind the front, but have fallen
into the 50s over northern NY. This dryer air will gradually be
working southward overnight, with dew points falling to the 50s
as far south as the I-90 corridor by daybreak.
Updated at 745 pm. Most of the showers have moved south and east
of the area as of mid-evening, however the surface cold front is
still located along a line from southern Vermont to near Albany
down I-88 toward northeast Pa and is moving slowly southeastward.
Dew points remain rather high across most of area, with
readings mainly near or just above 70. Lower dew points are
working southward across far northern NY and will overspread the
area from the Capital District northward overnight.
A few scattered showers will persist along and just behind the
front through the rest of this evening, with coverage shrinking
to below 30 percent area- wide by late evening, and to none by
around midnight. Skies will clear north and west of the Capital
District by midnight, and to the southeast during the early
morning hours Sunday. Previous discussion is below.
As of 406 PM EDT...A humid and tropical air mass will be over
the region late this afternoon with sfc dewpts in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Prefrontal lines of showers and thunderstorms
continue to form from the Capital Region and Berkshires north
and west. The PWAT was 1.90" on the 12Z KALY sounding, as well
as WFO OKX. WFO BUF upstream was 2.02", so we are looking at
PWATS +2 to +3 STD DEVS above normal based on the GEFS. So some
enhanced hourly rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible. The
steering flow is a bit stronger limiting widespread flash flood
threat. Observational data shows over the models, west to
southwest winds in the 700-500 hPa layer of 20-30 kts, so any
convection should be moving along, and there is a small risk of
training. Our thinking remains the same and isolated flash
flooding is possible. Antecedent conditions are dry and
1-,3-,6-hr gridded FFG values are high. The severe threat
continues to be contingent on maximizing CAPE, pcpn loading, and
a few wet microbursts potentially forming. Mid-level lapse
rates are poor. DCAPE values per the latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis
are 400-600 J/kg, and MLCAPE values are in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range due to the high dewpts. 0-6 km bulk shear is 20-25 kts, so
loosely organized deep convection is possible organizing into a
line or two with some gusty or borderline damaging winds. A few
severe thunderstorms may be possible.
FQT lighting was kept in the forecast grids with any
thunderstorms. We will monitor for an isolated severe threat.
Hail does not look like a threat due to freezing levels around
15 kft AGL, weak lapse rates and taller and skinny sounding
profiles.
Based the latest CAMS the showers and thunderstorms should end
quickly between 6-9 pm EDT from the Capital Region/Berkshires/Mohawk
Valley north and west, and then between 9 pm - midnight south
and east. A few showers may linger, shortly before or just after
06Z as the dewpt boundary lingers upstream of the main cold
front. These showers will be near the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT.
Sfc dewpts will fall into the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s from
the Capital Region north and west by daybreak, and upper 50s to
mid 60s south and east. There may be some patchy fog around the
area with the greatest possibility along the CT River Valley in
southeast VT. In the cold advection in the wake of front, lows
will fall back into the 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...A splendid and delightful finish to the 4th of July
holiday weekend is expected with a drier air mass continuing to
build into the region from southeast Canada and the Great Lakes
Region. Low-level cold advection will continue with H850 temps
dipping into the +12C to +15C range from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area. The subsidence from the ridge building
in should yield mostly sunny conditions. Sfc dewpts will be
mainly in the 50s. Highs will be near seasonal normals in the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain. North winds will generally be 5 to 10
mph.
Sunday night...A beautiful early July night with mostly
clear/clear and cool conditions. Some radiational cooling is
expected with clear skies and the winds becoming calm. Lows will
drop to the mid 40s to lower 50s over the southern Adirondacks,
Lake George/Glens Falls area, and southern VT, and mid to upper
50s from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region south and east.
Monday-Monday Night...A great stretch of fair weather continues
for early July with the sfc anticyclone ridging eastward from
the central/eastern Great Lakes Region over NY and New England.
Heights will begin to rise aloft by Mon night. Temps will be
near seasonal normals with 70s to lower 80s for highs, and 50s
for lows will very comfortable humidity levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at the surface with ridging building aloft will
bring mostly clear skies for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will start out near normal for Tuesday, but warm slightly under
the influence of the upper level ridge for Wednesday. Humidity
levels will be fairly comfortable both days, although Tuesday
gets the nod as the drier day.
A short wave trough riding the northern border will approach the
region on Thursday and cross over the area on Friday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase to likely levels on Thursday,
pulling back to the chance category for Friday. With clouds,
showers, and cooler temperatures about, temperatures both days will
edge back to near normal. Some indications that precipitable water
values could increase to about one standard deviation above normal
with the passage of the trough. So some heavier
showers/thunderstorms possible, mainly creating minor ponding issues.
From the vantage point of one week out, next Saturday looks dry with
weak high pressure building in.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front located near ALB this evening and will sag
southward to the south of POU by daybreak Sunday. Scattered
showers will persist near ALB/PSF/POU through the rest of this
evening near the front, before ending overnight. Conditions will
be mostly VFR tonight, except for brief periods of MVFR
conditions near any showers this evening. Skies will clear late
tonight with sunny VFR conditions expected during the day
Sunday. Winds will be light and variable, becoming light north-
northwesterly overnight, then north-northwest at 5 to 10 kts on
Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move south of the region tonight with
the scattered showers and thunderstorms ending. A drier and less
humid air mass will be over the region tomorrow with seasonable
temperatures. High pressure will be in control Sunday night into
the middle of next week with fair and dry weather.
The maximum RH values tonight will be in the 85 to 100 percent
range, and then lower to 30 to 50 percent Sunday afternoon.
Expect the RH values to recover the 75 to 100 percent Monday
morning.
The winds will shift to the northwest or north at 5 to 15 mph
tonight, and will continue to be northerly at 5 to 10 mph Sunday
afternoon. The winds will become light to calm Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The cold front late this afternoon into tonight will interact
with a very humid and moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with PWAT values +2 to +3 STD DEVs
above normal in the 1.7-2.0+ inch range. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the early evening ahead of the
front.
There is a threat for urban and poor-drainage flooding, as well
as isolated flash flooding if multiple rounds of convection
occur repeatedly over one location. Basin average QPF of 0.25 to
0.75 inches are possible with locally higher amounts ranging
from 1 to 2+ inches. The flash flooding threat will be lessened
tremendously by the dry antecedent conditions.
A period of dry weather will occur Sunday through Wednesday.
Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...MSE/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...OKeefe
AVIATION...MSE/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Eliminated pops for the rest of this evening. Did keep some small
pops far southwest and south central late tonight into Sunday
morning as warm advection increases late. Made some minor
adjustments to sky cover, increasing low clouds southwest late
tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise no significant changes to
the going forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
No significant changes for the late afternoon update. Isolated
convection remains just north of the border, over southern
Saskatchewan. Latest CAMS continue to show isolated convection
over the west and central through early evening. Looking at
forecast soundings, it appears areas north of Minot and Williston
would have the best chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm,
with enough of a cap to inhibit convection over most of western
and central ND. Can`t completely rule out a shower or two so will
maintain the slight chance pops through early evening.
Otherwise, populated latest sensible weather elements and blended
to early evening values. We did bump up sky cover a little
overnight as there are some indications of lower stratus
developing after midnight, but little agreement on where. RAP
forecast soundings indicate elevated CAPE remaining over western
into north central ND through the night, but with no shortwave to
spark convection, and not sure increasing warm advection will be
enough to start convection either. For now will leave the forecast
as is, dry after midnight, after evening convection ends. The
exception being a slight chance in the far southwest and south
central late, closest to the increasing warm advection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Afternoon satellite imagery across the region shows cumulus has
developed across much of western and central North Dakota. So far,
it has not had too much vertical development, though short term
models still hint at the potential for at least isolated showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. Will continue to mention a
slight chance in the forecast, especially in the western half of
the forecast area. Rain chances should wane tonight as we lose
heating.
Fog has developed over the past couple of nights, so took a close
look at that potential for tonight again. The HRRR doesn`t show
much in the way of visibility restrictions, and with the surface
high moving to our east, wasn`t confident enough to add a mention
yet.
Thunderstorm chances for Sunday look rather limited again, but
can`t totally rule isolated development in the afternoon. Models
continue to show a precipitation signal, and with all the subtle
waves in in the upper flow, will hang onto the small pops we
already have in the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
The better rain chances come early in the long term period.
Thunderstorms across northeast Montana are expected to move
towards western North Dakota Sunday night. The latest SPC Day 2
outlook brings the Slight Risk just across the Montana / North
Dakota border. Have gone with the highest pops in the northwest,
with lesser chances in the south central.
The chance for thunderstorms continues Monday as an H5 waves moves
across the Northern Plains. A surface boundary will also be making
its way across the state, with good instability ahead of the
front. Deep layer shear remains a bit in question, but overall the
severe weather threat still remains. Will continue to mention the
possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, and we have already
begun messaging the possibility in our other graphics. Heavy rain
will also be a concern and that is already in our messaging too.
Thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday, especially in eastern parts
of the forecast area. A break in the thunderstorm chances still
appears reasonable mid-week with an H5 ridge building into the
region. Rain chances become a bit more challenging to pin down
later next week with waves running over the top of the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
VFR conditions to begin the forecast period. Expect VFR with
scattered to broken ceilings 6-8k ft this evening. Late tonight
forecast models indicate increasing low level moisture with latest
iterations of the short term models hitting the southwest rather
than south central. For now will keep ceilings VFR but may
introduce some MVFR cigs with the 06Z TAF issuance, most likely
just for KDIK to begin with. If stratus does not develop, there
could still be a period of MVFR ceilings with a developing cumulus
field, most likely at KDIK and/or KBIS. By afternoon expect VFR
conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon,
but too far out to mention at any one TAF site at this time. South
to southeast surface flow is expected through the TAF period,
with gusts up to 25kts Sunday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Storms are rolling east/southeast from Wyoming, but have recently
weakened a little, perhaps because they`re running into slightly
cooler boundary layer air. We still think there is a threat of
severe thunderstorms roughly along/north of a line from Wellington
to Akron, with the highest probabilities of storms over the
northern border area through the midnight hour. The increasing low
level jet could be the kicker of additional storm development
over the northeast plains late this evening. We`ll look at
possible severe thunderstorm watch extension and expansion to the
east. Otherwise, we were able to clear more of the Denver area and
Palmer Divide from the severe thunderstorm watch, as 00Z sounding
shows airmass just a bit too capped to support surface based
strong/severe convection. There is one thing that could still pop
a few strong/severe storms along the Front Range, and that would
be an outflow boundary pushing out of the Wyoming/far northern
Colorado convection. It`s a small chance, but a chance nonetheless
since we did not tap into much if any of the 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon along the Front Range.
UPDATE Issued at 546 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Storms have been paltry so far, and a look at the latest aircraft
data departing DIA shows a pretty strong stable layer near 725 mb
that is effectively capping off the I-25 Corridor. Will be nice to
see the 00Z Denver sounding. There were still a few storms on the
plains and trying to get going over the mountains, but the main
chance of any severe weather is shifting to the north and east.
There is some threat with the storms firing over Morgan county and
spreading eastward, but the main threat of more organized severe
weather appears to be shaping up from the storms dropping
east/southeast from Wyoming. These are severe already, and should
try to organize into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) as they
feed on an intensifying low level jet this evening. Most of these
should remain north of a line from Wellington to Akron, and will
be most likely near the Wyoming border cutting through the
northeast corner of the state. Right moving severe supercells
with very large hail could definitely be in the picture given
existing MLCAPE near 1500-2000 J/kg and stronger shear profile to
the north. We`ll keep higher PoPs and severe risk there, but have
dropped the chance of storms in/around Denver.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Storms developing over southern Jefferson County at this time. Two
separate areas focused on by the High Res models this afternoon
and evening. The first area will around the Denver area including
points mainly south and east. Main concern will focus for severe
will be around this areas. Weak cyclonic circulation as well
around Denver which could enhance the potential for severe
thunderstorms. RAP forecast soundings indicate CAPEs around 1200
j/kg with favorable directional shear as well. Precipitable water
values still close to 0.80 inches as well. Later this evening,
another area of thunderstorms is forecast clip the northeast
corner of the forecast area around 03z. Higher CAPES/greater shear
in this area. Potential for a weak tornado or two there as well.
Most of the cwa has been under a jet max this afternoon which
appears to have capped some thunderstorm development, but this
will shift eastward this evening which aid deep convection. On
Sunday, the flow aloft will remain southwesterly with continued
potential for thunderstorms in the afternoon. CAPE values still
healthy so potential exists for another period of severe
thunderstorms with CAPES 1400 around Denver to 2400 j/kg over the
northeast plains. Higher CAPE and weaker shear, but temperatures
will be warmer with highs around 85. Expect the storms on Sunday
to be more pulse type cells.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Medium range models continue to show a couple more days of moist
southwesterly flow aloft which will set up each afternoon for
rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Monday looks like
it will be the last afternoon of highest coverage of thunderstorms
as the flow aloft turns more westerly on Tuesday that drops the
mid-level moisture a little bit. The GFS is stronger than the
ECMWF with the drying effects, so Tuesday and Wednesday will still
need the mention of at least some afternoon thunderstorms. Cross
sections from the NAM show strong drying Tuesday morning with flow
at mid levels around 20 knots, but by Wednesday night a low level
surge of northeasterlies and increasing moisture appear to be on
their way. The ECMWF backs up this scenario. With all of the
ingredients necessary for storm formation in place over northeast
Colorado through the majority of the week, the cycle of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.
Temperatures will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s each afternoon.
Each day will need to be assessed with regard to the threat of
heavy rainfall. By the end of the week, the upper ridge looks to
be centered over the Four Corners area which typically leads to
weak flow aloft across northern Colorado. Weak flow patterns and
slow moving thunderstorms go hand in hand, so if precipitable
water values increase, then the threat of heavy rainfall will also
increase.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Storm threat is low over the Denver area airports due to a stable
layer noted on the aircraft data moving in/out of Denver and the
00Z Denver sounding. We still see a small chance of thunderstorms
if an outflow boundary from the southern Wyoming/far northern
Colorado convection moves into the Front Range.
Otherwise, low level moisture could slip back into KDEN late
tonight/early Sunday with redevelopment of a Denver cyclone or
convective push from the the north and east. So there`s a risk of
stratus and IFR/MVFR ceilings 11Z-15Z. Scattered thunderstorms
possible Sunday afternoon after 21Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for most of Southeast
Wyoming (minus Carbon County) and entire Nebraska Panhandle
through 9pm. Main hazards will be large hail (upwards of golfball
to baseball size), damaging 60-70 mph winds, and a tornado or two
could be possible. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and storm
training could cause flash flooding concerns. Please stay alert
through the afternoon and evening as storm hazards develop. Storms
will dissipate and shift east through the mid to late evening
hours.
MLCAPE instability continues to grow upwards of 1500-2000 J/Kg
with some slight implied capping in place per mesoanalysis and
latest satellite trends. The first round of storms initially fired
over the higher terrain now have orphaned anvils that are crossing
into the High Plains. Of interesting note is the dissipating anvil
over Laramie County is suppressing the cumulus field below while
forming a localized boundary moving east. This boundary has
cleared out northwest Laramie County well for greater insolation.
However, this also veered the winds almost westerly in this local
area. Will need to see if greater S/SE flow can get re-established
in this area. Farther north and east, low-level winds remain
backed to SSE/SE, especially across the NE Panhandle with some
east winds near Scottsbluff. Effective deep layer shear remains
near 40 knots along the Laramie Range with lower values in NE
Panhandle. However, expect higher amounts of shear over NE
Panhandle next 6 hours. All of these factors combined, deep robust
rotating updrafts will be likely this afternoon and evening supporting
large hail.
Tornado potential continues to look marginal as low-level wind
shear remains below 100 m2/s2 but localized enhancements near
boundaries or isolated supercells could perhaps ingest enough
helicity for low-level vertical stretching. A weak/brief tornado
or two can`t be fully ruled out.
Storm mode should initially be discrete to semi-discrete
supercells that grow upscale into a cluster or possibly into a
cold pool balanced complex as they move east into NE Panhandle.
Risk for localized flooding could be maximized in NE Panhandle due
to clustering and possible training of storms with mixing ratios
of 10-12 in place.
Slightly greater ridging will occur Sunday but a marginal risk for
severe storms is also in place for portions of the area. H5 winds
will be lower along with deep layer shear being weaker. However,
compensating instability could still help decent storm updrafts
for hail and wind hazard risks.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Widely sctd convection ending over the CWA Monday night but
returning again Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave moves east across
the region. A few strong storms possible though better dynamics
look to be more to the north. After that a somewhat drier weather
regime expected to set up over the region as an upper high builds
over the southern Rockys Weds and remains there for the rest of
the week. Weak disturbances riding over the top of the high will
still set off some mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
most days but should be more on an isolated basis. Temps
generally close to seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Thunderstorms have begun across the high terrain between KRWL and
KLAR. Storms will continue to move eastward toward the NE
Panhandle terminals after 00Z. Gusty winds and reduced visibility
can be expected with these storms into this evening with KBFF and
KSNY most at risk for thunderstorm activity. After the storms move
out of the area, lower ceilings may creep into the NE Panhandle
early Sunday morning. The HRRR has been bringing in lower
ceilings and visibility to KCYS after 08Z the last few runs. Will
continue to monitor these trends into this evening in case a
further lowering of flight category in the TAF is needed.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Limited fire weather concerns today with area showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area and higher then normal
relative humidity values. One concern will be localized fire
starts from lightning activity today but most thunderstorms should
have some rain opposed to dry lightning situation.
Isolated elevated fire weather conditions will occur Sunday
into Monday mainly across Carbon County due to elevated winds
and humidity values falling to 20 percent.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JSA
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
652 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Atmosphere again in recovery mode this afternoon in the wake of the
latest MCS that crossed the area last night. A weak surface low is
noted across north central Nebraska, with bands of stratocumulus
clouds in areas of weak convergence across the region. An isolated
weak thunderstorm could develop in one of those areas of weak
convergence, but the better threat of thunderstorms will come later
this evening and overnight. HRRR and several other Hi-Res HREF
members organize thunderstorms into a small complex across the
central and southern Panhandle early this evening. The storms then
track east across portions of the southern Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska late this evening and overnight. Some strong wind potential
with the cluster as well as locally heavy rainfall. Will carry a
swath of likely pops where the system is expected to track with 40
or less pops elsewhere. Similar set up on Sunday with southeast
moist low-level flow aiding in destabilization across the western
High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This should once again
lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development, with the
activity possibly moving into western Nebraska Sunday evening.
Otherwise southeast winds will increase Sunday as pressure falls
across the Western High Plains. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible
across portions of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. The
increased wind will aid in better mixing with highs into the mid 80s
across western Nebraska.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
The start of the upcoming week will be unsettled. Upper level
ridging will be suppressed well south as an upper level trough moves
east across the Central and Northern Plains. This will lead to an
uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday. By
the middle and latter parts of the week, GEFS and ECMWF build
upper level ridging into the four corners region and much of the
Central and Southern Plains. This will spread a warm layer aloft
across much of the region which will limit rain chances. Above
normal temperatures are also expected, with highs climbing into
the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Thunderstorm chances increase later this evening into the
overnight. At this time the greatest chance for thunderstorms will
be across western and southwest Nebraska, mainly south of KVTN.
MVFR conditions are possible mid morning, mostly across southwest
Nebraska, with ceiling heights increasing in the afternoon. Winds
will increase in the afternoon out of the south.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
951 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.UPDATE...
An upper trof remains over the Mid-South this evening. As a
result, showers and thunderstorms have developed over West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River as well a few isolated ones
over Eastern Arkansas. The HRRR shows the convection near the
Tennessee River continuing to sink south into Northeast
Mississippi during the overnight hours. Will update to adjust POPS
accordingly. Rest of the forecast looks good.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019/
Another warm summer day is in progress across the Mid-South. Some
convection has initiated already this afternoon, mainly across
areas east. Anticipate more showers and thunderstorms to pop up
through the evening hours. Feel most of this will remain across
eastern portions of the FA, given the location and orientation of
the upper trof, from NE to SW over the area. The latest H5
analysis also shows the upper ridge currently located over south
Texas. This feature will move east toward the Mid-South, bringing
warmer and slightly drier conditions by midweek.
After a dry night with temperatures down into the mid to lower
70s, Sunday will be another nice day with highs a few degrees
warmer than today. The upper trof moves to the south, so afternoon
thunderstorm activity chances appear more favorable across
southern locales of the FA on Sunday afternoon. Similar
conditions will prevail on Monday as the upper ridge begins to
nose back into the region from the west. As a result, some
locales may not see any rain for a couple of days as chance POPs
will not return areawide until Wednesday afternoon. The big story
from Monday through midweek will be the temperatures. With the
ridge moving back into the region afternoon highs will gradually
warm into the mid 90s by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow for
heat indices in the triple digits, particularly on Wednesday when
values will warrant monitoring for possible Heat Advisory
issuance.
The meandering upper ridge will continue to meander by late in
the week. The feature retrogrades westward yet again on Thursday,
allowing better diurnal convection chances each day through the
weekend as northwest flow returns aloft. Temperatures will be on a
cooling trend by late week as highs return to the lower 90s each
day. Interestingly, at least one of the long term models develops
some tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico next weekend from
the upper trof currently over the Mid-South. While there is very
little agreement between the models at this time, at least one
solution brings rain to the area from this system for next
weekend. This interesting scenario will warrant monitoring as the
week progresses.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the SHRAs and TSRAs are on the periphery of the Mid-South
this evening so the very near term looks fine at the TAF sites.
Later this evening the CAMs are developing convection across West
TN and later moving it into North MS. For now will go with VCSH
at KMEM/KMKL and KTUP and monitor. TSRA chances should diminish
with loss of heating overnight. OTRW expect VFR conds through the
period. Best chance of afternoon TSRAs on Sunday will be at KTUP
so included a VCTS there. Winds will generally be light and
mainly from the west and northwest.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
847 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
For a better set of terms, numerous shwrs with sct tstms "rounding
the bend" across mid state sw counties as mid evening hrs
progress per association with weak upper level low circulation
aloft. Latest HRRR model shows this trend continuing thru
remainder of evening hrs. Updated suite of forecast products to
reflect this. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Per above mentioned unstable wx pattern,
confidence of shwrs forming at terminals not high enough to
mention prevailing, so mentioned VCSH at CKV/BNA/MQY. Not
enough confidence presently to mention even VCSH CSV as
current shwrs are far W of CSV. Confidence of any shwrs even in
vcnty of CKV/BNA/MQY terminals wanes after 07/08Z, 07/05Z CSV, but
terminal MVFR fog formation possible thru 17/12Z. From
17/15Z-17/24Z with convection initiation diurnally driven, iso to
sct shwrs/tstms could once again form, but confidence of formation
at individual terminals not great enough to mention prevailing.
Thus will transition from VCSH 07/15-16Z to VCTS 07/17Z-07/24Z
CKV/BNA/MQY. Per orographic influences and expected deeper overall
low level moisture around CSV, VCSH 07/14Z should transition to
VCTS tstms around 07/16Z. Initial light W sfc winds will veer NW
thru 07/24Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
823 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Latest radar, satellite, and SPC mesoanalysis trends suggest that
only weak instability remains across the forecast area, but
capping is preventing convective growth in most areas. A few
thunderstorms persist in Baca and Prowers Counties where the best
instability is present, but weak shear. Elsewhere, the forecast
area is mostly dry with very isolated rain showers and residual
outflow boundaries. Expect precipitation coverage to remain
isolated before becoming dry by midnight. ~Line
UPDATE Issued at 509 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Updated precipitation forecast for this evening to account for
latest satellite, radar, and hi-res model trends. Much of the area
should only see isolated to scattered coverage, spreading east
through the evening. While cloud cover has limited the development
of instability across much of the area, up to around 1000 j/kg is
analyzed over the Pikes Peak region, where deep layer shear is
also favorable. Therefore, still expect the possibility of a
strong to low-end severe storm there early this evening.
Elsewhere, weak instability and shear will limit activity to
showers and weak thunderstorms this evening. ~Line
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Currently...A number of slow-moving showers and storms across the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains this aftn, as well as across the
central mts in the vicinity of Monarch Pass. This has produced
abundant cloud cover for much of the forecast area save for the far
eastern plains near the KS border, keeping temps somewhat subdued
today. Highs so far as of 3 pm have been in the 60s and 70s for most
locations, though LHX and LAA have seen a good amount of sun and
have warmed up into the lower 80s.
Very little change to the ongoing upper pattern, with a ridge of
high pressure centered over TX and OK, and a broad upper trough over
the western third of the US. This will keep southwest flow aloft in
place over the Four Corners, with moisture pouring into the cwa from
the south.
Tonight...Rather meager storm activity across the region this
afternoon, and the latest runs of the HRRR indicate that although
activity will likely linger until around midnight, it will not be as
widespread as initially thought. There will be a wave that develops
over the southern Front Range and rolls east across the plains
between 6 and 7 pm, but after that things should stabilize and allow
partially clearing skies. Look for lows in the 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.
Tomorrow...With a somewhat stagnant upper pattern, look for a repeat
tomorrow with respect to convection. However, do not feel that there
will be as much lower clouds along the I-25 corridor to start the
day. There will already be a healthy pool of low level moisture to
tap into, and with greater heating expected, tomorrow may be the day
for widespread convection over the higher terrain by midday, then
sweeping across the plains through the afternoon and eve. Once
again, flash flooding will remain a strong concern for area burn
scars. Latest NAM run indicates 1500-2500 j/kg of CAPE over the far
eastern plains between 21z-03z, and SPC has painted all of the
plains within the Marginal category for severe weather. So, little
to no cloud cover tomorrow morning will mean quicker and more
intense heating, which in turn may mean that the potential of the
moisture pool will be realized. Time will tell. Plan on highs in the
70s for the high valleys, and in the 80s across the plains. Moore
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
Precipitable waters remain high across southern CO through Sunday
evening with thunderstorms continuing into the evening across the
mountains and plains. With weaker deep layer shears, threat for
storm organization and severe thunderstorms appears lower, but
threat for burn scar flash flooding will remain elevated. We appear
to lack much of a trigger besides surface heating, as low level flow
becomes more southerly (putting best upslope component into the
eastern San Juans), and PV fields look rather nondescript. However
low level jet across the plains east of the surface trof axis will
also likely provide some convergence for thunderstorms into the
evening with a isolated nocturnal thunderstorms possible past
midnight across far eastern areas.
Next shortwave will be riding up western side of the southern U.S.
upper ridge on Monday. This will bring better forcing for
thunderstorms across the mountains during the afternoon as well as
some drying into southwest portions of the area behind the feature.
Overall, looks like the thunderstorm focus region will shift north
and east this day. Still some healthy CAPE out near the border with
values 1500+ J/kg but deep layer shears are only running around 20-
25 kts, so main thunderstorm risks will be heavy rain and winds,
though some sporadic hail with any initial intense updrafts will be
possible before they become precipitation loaded. Thunderstorms will
push eastward into KS during the evening, with a relatively quiet
night for Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday still look like relatively quiet dry days as
upper high rebuilds northward and establishes itself across southern
CO/northern NM. Pops should decrease quite a bit over the area with
mainly isolated thunderstorms across the mountains. Upper trof
swinging through the northern Rockies into the northern high plains
Tuesday night sends a cold front through the eastern plains Tuesday
night/early Wednesday which will increase moisture and may nudge up
precipitation chances for Wednesday afternoon across the plains and
Pikes Peak region for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Depending on
extent of low level moisture, there could be plenty of CAPE this day
as well as upslope, but shear may be lacking with the upper high
building over the region and there may be a cap to overcome as
well. Either way, convection may not be very widespread this day.
Temperatures will heat up for Thursday and Friday with diurnal
thunderstorm chances both days given residual moisture caught within
the upper high. Another upswing in thunderstorms will be possible
next weekend as Pacific moisture gets drawn up from the south. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019
VFR conditions expected across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain this
aftn, then potentially roll across the adjacent plains areas
affecting the TAF sites between 21-23z. Storms should clear out of
the San Luis Valley by 03z, while showers will linger along the I-25
corridor until around 07z before exiting to the east. Conditions
will become MVFR to at times IFR under heavier showers and storms.
The eastern plains are under a Marginal threat for severe weather,
increasing to Slight over the Palmer Divide and north.
One or two of the storms that develop will be capable of producing
larger hail of an inch or greater in diameter, and wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph. Look for a repeat tomorrow with even more moisture
available and a Marginal threat for severe weather across the
eastern plains.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1023 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather through the weekend, with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
brings relief for early next week. Hot and muggy by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1023 PM Saturday..
Modified POPs through the overnight period to continue
reflecting latest radar and model trends. Temperatures were also
tweaked to mirror observations from around the region this
evening.
As of 745 PM Saturday...
Thunderstorms in the area have tarnished temperatures across the
region, so tweaked them down a few degrees to better align with
current observations. Also touched up POPs for our southeast
Ohio Counties to reflect storms moving in from WFO ILN`s
territory.
As of 200 PM Saturday...
Ribbons of theta-e advection should serve as the primary focus
for convection thru early aftn and have coded POPs based on RAP
depiction of these features. An uptick on storm motion is
expected thru the afternoon with mean flow increasing a hair, as
already evident with the recent radar returns.
Meanwhile, a front will be sagging south this afternoon, taking
until early this evening to slip into southeast OH. This will
eventually take over as the main forcing for ascent, with
convection becoming more numerous along and ahead of the
boundary. PWAT values are progged to reach or eclipse 2" as
deep moisture pools in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone by
late afternoon/early evening. This, combined with a deep warm
cloud layer, would mean for very efficient downpours with very
heavy rain rates. There is the potential for a period of
training this evening from portions of southeast OH and into
northern WV which would further exacerbate the flash flood
threat.
After collaboration with neighboring offices, I have elected to
hoist a Flash Flood watch thru late tonight across the northern
WV Lowlands and northeast WV mountains, where FFG is lowest.
There is concern that, even in portions of southeast OH where
guidance is a bit higher, that isolated high water is possible.
Front will settle into central portions of the CWA late tonight
with coverage of activity gradually decreasing. The front will
gradually settle south on Sunday with convection chances highest
across the southern third of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...
Where the cold front resides at the start of the short term will
be key in terms of PoPs Sunday evening. Guidance suggests rain
tapering off from west to east on Monday as high pressure
expands over the Great Lakes region. Higher elevations will
likely see showers and storms continue through the day on Monday
before beginning to relish in the drier weather associated the
encroaching high on Tuesday.
Temperatures gradually rise through the period, especially by
Tuesday as shortwave ridging and height rises come into play. At
which time, we can expect to see afternoon highs in the upper
80s (lowlands) and low- to mid-70s (mountains).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...
High pressure remains in control on Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures maxing out in the low 90s. This is in response to a
warm front surging northward ahead of the next upper trough
sinking down from the upper Plains. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase by late Wednesday night and remain prominent
overhead through the end of the work week once the cold front is
progged to cross through Central Appalachia. Quiet weather is
then suggested to return for the weekend.
Temperatures remain hot through the long term with no sign of
relief from higher dew points, resulting in continuing muggy
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...
Unsettled weather continues this evening with numerous showers
and storms crossing through the region. As has been the case the
past few days, VFR will hold at all terminals that reside
outside of the storms, while briefly falling to sub-MVFR beneath
any heavy storm. Handled this with TEMPO groups at all TAF sites
from 00-04Z when the best organization of storms are expected.
The overnight period of the forecast will encompass a hodgepodge
of flight restrictions due to low stratus and fog development.
A cold front is progged to sink southward into Central
Appalachia through the night, bringing an end to showers and
storms. However, quickly behind the conclusion of precip, the
likelihood for fog increases, especially at terminals that
encounter TSRA. During the predawn hours, low stratus is
expected to filter into the northern half of the forecast
region, plaguing EKN, CKB, and PKB with IFR and possibly LIFR
cigs.
Low ceilings will struggle to scatter Sunday morning, but should
improve by midday with daytime heating and mixing. Another round
of showers and storms are likely to impact terminals Sunday
afternoon as the front sluggishly pushes southward towards the
Carolinas. VCTS is currently displayed for many of the sites
towards the end of this current TAF period, with refinement to
timing and intensity of storms likely with future forecasts.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of low stratus and
fog may differ from forecast Sunday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/07/19
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H L L M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L H L L L H H M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog and stratus Monday and Tuesday mornings.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ009>011-017>020-
028>032-039-040-521>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/MEK
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected to remain in place for the next 6
hours or so. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will continue
until sunset near KSJT and west of KABI. However, due to little
storm motion, these storms stand little chance of impacting either
terminal unless they develop directly over it. Then, KJCT and
KSOA will drop into the MVFR ceiling categories around 11z. VFR
ceilings will return by late morning and also for the afternoon
hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
..Big Country Rain This Evening...
The potential for Big Country rain will continue into this
evening. Plus, some of our western counties may receive rain
Sunday afternoon. The main convection driver this afternoon,
across our Big Country counties, is an outflow boundary, which
moved into Texas from the north. This type of convection is very
challenging to forecast. Nevertheless, short-term, high-
resolution, models are doing a fairly. The HRRR ends this
convection by 10 PM CDT this evening. Thus, continuing low PoPs,
for the Big Country, looks reasonable. For Sunday, convection to
our west may move into our western counties, during the afternoon.
Thus, 20 PoPs for that area also looks reasonable.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
..Possible Rain Western Counties...
Aside for possible rain, over our western counties, during the
afternoon and early evenings through Monday, the long term
forecast remains dry and hot. Temperatures will likely continue
to warm slightly each day, and by Monday afternoon highs around
100 will likely be common, across West Central Texas. Highs in
this range look likely, at least into mid week. Then, slightly
cooler afternoon highs may occur, as the center of high pressure
aloft moves out of Texas and over northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 10 10
San Angelo 72 96 73 97 / 10 0 10 10
Junction 71 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 72 96 73 97 / 10 0 0 5
Sweetwater 72 94 73 95 / 10 10 20 20
Ozona 71 90 72 93 / 5 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
41