Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A quasi-zonal flow is set up over the forecast area with embedded pieces of short wave energy progged to move through the area this afternoon through early evening. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this energy from the Brainerd Lakes, east through northwest Wisconsin. Thermodynamic profiles are weak, therefore, the threat for strong to severe storms is low. This activity will diminish from west to east through the evening, with all mention of thunder removed by 04Z/11pm. High pressure is in charge over the rest of the region tonight through Saturday. Cooler min temps tonight with 50s common, to around 60. Max temps Saturday will be in the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The period will start out relatively quiet with an upper ridge through the central part of the CONUS. A surface high will be over the Northland and will slide east Sunday into Sunday night. We expect dry conditions Saturday night into Sunday night, and it will be quite cool Saturday night with lows in the forties over much of the Northland. There may be some some showers/storms over our western areas Monday as warmer air moves in along with increasing moisture and decreasing stability. Differences remain between the models with a shortwave and cold front in the Monday night to Wednesday period. The GFS remains faster than the ECMWF and Canadian...although the GFS has slowed slightly and the ECMWF is a bit quicker than their previous runs. The Canadian is an outlier compared to the GFS/ECMWF and a blend of the GFS/ECMWF is preferred. PWAT values will rise to around 1.6 inches ahead of the front on Tuesday and MUCAPE values will be 1500 to around 2500 J/KG. The timing of the front is still in question, but there will at least be a low threat for severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday night with a greater chance if the front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening. The shortwave will exit the region Wednesday and even the slower ECMWF suggests most areas of the Northland will be dry by afternoon lasting into Thursday. An upper ridge will build over the west Wednesday and only move slowly east toward the Northern Plains by Friday. The Northland will be in a west/northwest flow aloft mid to late week with a couple shortwaves moving through the region. Instability will build back into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late in the week with chances for showers/storms returning Friday. High temperatures through most of the week will be a couple degrees either side of normal, with Wednesday being the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper seventies. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Overall, VFR with fairly light winds overnight and then an increase in winds off of Lake Superior Saturday. While writing the discussion, could not explain HZ at KINL, but finally figured out that it`s smoke from a fire north of the border near Lake Winnipeg slowly drifting south per the HRRR smoke model. So dropped vsbys there overnight and tomorrow, but perhaps not low enough given the humid air mass. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Winds will be 10 knots or less into tonight, but will increase out of the northeast on Saturday as a broad area of high pressure builds over Lake Superior. Northeast winds of 10 to around 15 knots are possible across western Lake Superior, especially at the head of the lake. This will lead to building waves with wave heights as high as 2 to 3 feet from Two Harbors to Duluth and Duluth to Port Wing. Winds will diminish Saturday night and Sunday and are expected to be 10 knots or less. There may an isolated thunderstorm tonight, mainly over the South Shore to the Twin Ports area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 71 51 76 / 60 0 10 10 INL 50 77 47 81 / 0 0 10 0 BRD 60 78 55 79 / 50 0 10 10 HYR 58 78 49 79 / 50 0 10 10 ASX 57 71 47 76 / 40 0 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...Melde AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 MCS that crossed the area overnight has weakened and shifted east of the area this afternoon. A meso high has built in across the forecast area in the wake of the system, and that is helping to keep conditions stable. There has been some recovery across the Panhandle due to moist southeast upslope low-level flow and partial sunshine. Expect storms that are developing across the higher terrain to push eastward into the Panhandle this evening. The Hi-Res model consensus is to congeal the storms and dive them southeast through portions of southwest Nebraska later this evening. This makes sense with central/north central Nebraska recovering from earlier MCS. As far as severe potential, overall shear profiles do support some stronger storm potential. Damaging winds would be the main concern as the storms dive southeast. We`ll keep the highest pops south of I-80 tonight with lesser chances to the north/northeast. Quite a bit in the way of cloud cover is expected Saturday, but expect at least some destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon. The better instability looks to reside across western Nebraska and the Panhandle. Expect scattered storms to once again initiate across the higher terrain of WY during the afternoon. These storms will track east into the Panhandle and far western NE Saturday evening. HRRR model shows some potential for development across portions of northwest NE as well. This scenario is more uncertain with the lack of a low-level boundary to focus development. Effective shear is ample for at least some storm organization. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Upper ridging will remain across the Southern Plains through the middle of next week. Meanwhile a strong shortwave will slowly move east across southern Canada. General west to southwest flow aloft can be expected across our region in between these two features. Several weak pertubations within the flow will yield in scattered thunderstorms from time to time. Hard to nail down the higher chances at this point. Overall expect a decrease in pops as we head toward the last of the week. Upper level ridging begins to expand northward with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F by weeks end. Mostly 80s can be expected the early to mid parts of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Thunderstorms a possible this evening into the overnight. At this time thunderstorms are expected to be scattered. MVFR conditions are possible after midnight across north central Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
855 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Showers and thunderstorms have become isolated across the area with loss of daytime heating. Will maintain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight as RAP maintains 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE as a weak vort max moves across the CWA. Otherwise, may see some patchy fog late tonight, particularly in river valleys given high moisture content in the boundary layer under a weak inversion. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 An MCV was driving areas of SHRA/TSRA across the region late this afternoon. As the MCV continues to drift to the south and east, the most active areas of convection should follow suit and begin moving out of the LSX CWA. In addition, lingering SHRA/TSRA will also begin to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Taken together, the overall SHRA/TSRA chances should be diminishing from northwest to southeast this evening, although isolated SHRA/TSRA could still percolate among any of the residual boundaries. Overnight lows tonight should be comparable to last night with temperatures falling into the upper 60s to mid-70s. The higher overnight temperatures (mid-70s) are expected across parts of SE MO and SW IL where the cloud cover should be greatest. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 With little change in the upper air pattern over the next few days, the forecast will also change very little from what has been observed over the past few days. The LSX CWA remains along the periphery of an upper ridge axis, and numerous PV anomalies and/or MCVs will continue to bring periods of SHRA/TSRA to the region. It is difficult to pinpoint any one location as more likely to receive rain than any other location, partly because the entire region is unstable and partly because of the influence of mesoscale boundaries whose positions cannot yet be accurately predicted far enough in advance to justify making significant changes to the PoP forecast for one geographical area instead of another. That said, a weak cold front on Saturday could provide the focus for SHRA/TSRA across the northeastern CWA, assuming that mesoscale processes do not change the location of the effective boundary. High PW values suggest that locally heavy rainfall is also possible, but the aforementioned uncertainty regarding TSRA locations each day precludes any Flood or Flash Flood Watch headlines at this time. Models seem to show that the upper ridge axis shifts westward and builds across the western CONUS by the end of the upcoming work week, allowing a PV anomaly to first dive down the eastern side of the ridge and then move into the Great Lakes. However, the latest model guidance suggests that this feature is too far north and east to affect the LSX CWA. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s over the next several days, with the caveat that thunderstorm activity will locally suppress daily highs across parts of the area on any given day. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s to low/mid- 70s. Kanofsky && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Evening showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate early this evening. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight and affect KCPS and KSUS with MVFR visibilities between 09-13Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Saturday afternoon, though coverage will be too low to go with any more than VCSH at this time. MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected with the stronger storms. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning as any remaining showers and thunderstorms are expected to be isolated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Saturday afternoon, though coverage will be too low to go with any more than VCSH at this time. MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected with the stronger storms. Any remaining storms will dissipate on early Saturday evening. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .AVIATION... VFR expected through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ DISCUSSION... Here we are, July 5th, the time of year when we should be relaxing into the summer high pressure bubble of no trouble, but this year has proven that the rules do not apply. RAP IR Satellite analysis shows a messy ridge over the central U.S. with several weaknesses. Models are having a slightly difficult time resolving these weaknesses over the next few days as the high retrogrades west into NM. Either way, unsettled weather appears likely through the weekend until the high finds its final residence west of us next week. A weak frontal boundary tries to push through Saturday night, though this round of model runs isn`t as keen on it sweeping too far south. Again, this is a year that isn`t following rules, so it`s likely this one will push well into the Lubbock FA, and it will serve as a focus for convective activity Saturday night into Sunday. The real question is what happens after the weekend. One take keeps the dirty ridge, trapping moisture and giving us a shot at spotty afternoon convection each day. The other take presents the traditional high pressure, clean bubble to our west, keeping us dry...and hot. Attm, would like to see another round or two of model runs before siding with either, and honestly, tending to think we`ll see a blend of the with late afternoon pop-up thunderstorms. Again, want to see another round, though. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 416 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wsw mid/upper level flow through the Northern Great Lakes between a ridge through the mid Atlantic and southeast CONUS and a trough over Hudson Bay. Another MCV/shrtwv supporting shra and a few ts over cntrl MN was slowly drifting to the east. Otherwise, sfc ridging from southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and nw Ontario was building toward the area with partly cloudy skies and drying into ne MN. MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/Kg away from the stabilizing influence of Lake Superior has supported some isold shra over nrn Menominee county. Tonight, expect the showers over the south to slowly drift to the south and weaken this evening. Model trends and short range models suggest that the shra associated with the MCV will remain mainly south of Upper Michigan. However, some lighter rain may extend northeast into western Lake Superior and possibly far western Upper Michigan as upper level div with the right entrance of the jet over nw Ontario and associated mid level fgen supports northeastward expansion of the pcpn. Light northerly winds continue to bring in slightly drier air and reduce potential for fog development. Saturday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into Upper Michigan with much drier air finally moving in. Mixing should help drop dewpoints into the 40s over much of the area as temps climb into the 70s to around 80 inland. Onshore flow will keep readings in the 60s near Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019 A -NAO and -AO have prevailed since late Apr and early May, respectively, supporting the overall blo normal temp regime across Upper MI during May and Jun. The NAO has stayed consistently in the negative phase, though only weakly at times, and the AO has briefly shifted to the positive phase just a couple of times. Overall, it`s an impressive duration for both being negative/predominately negative. The AO/NAO have trended more strongly negative recently, but the GEFS indicates both to weaken, and perhaps go to the positive phase in the next week or two. We`ll see. Until the high latitude anomalies breakdown for a significant period of time, seems unlikely that any long duration, abnormally warm periods will be in the offing for Upper MI as some degree of troffing will be favored in eastern Canada more often than not, allowing for cold fropas from time to time. Overall, temps over the next week or so should mostly be around normal to above normal given the positive 500mb height anomalies that will generally prevail. Coolest weather of the next 7 days should occur over the weekend. As for pcpn, the w half of Upper MI was becoming abnormally dry after a very dry June. Fortunately, needed rainfall occurred for much of that area in recent days, yesterday in particular, though there were some exceptions, such as the Keweenaw. Dry weather will dominate early next week as broad ridging over the Plains sharpens up thru the western Great Lakes in response to a shortwave trof moving inland from the W Coast. As this trof continues eastward, it will bring the only meaningful chc of pcpn for the next 7 days during the midweek period. Beginning Sat night/Sun, quiet, dry weather will be the rule with broad ridging upstream supporting sfc high pres over the Upper Great Lakes. Will be a cool night Sat night under calm winds and precipitable water as low as around 0.4 inches, 40pct of normal. Favored the lower side of guidance for mins. Most of the interior will be down into the 40s. A few of the traditional cold spots could dip just blo 40F. Sun will be a pleasant day with dwpts comfortably low, ranging from the 40s west to the low/mid 50s closer to the Lakes. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80F, but lake breezes will rule the day. Although high pres drifts off to the e on Mon, dry weather will continue under rising heights with sharpening mid-level ridge approaching. Temps overall will be 3 to 5F higher than Sun. Dwpts will edge up into the 50s...some 60s near the Lakes. Shortwave trof moving across the northern Rockies Mon will reach the Northern Plains Tue night and the western Great Lakes on Wed. With main zone of waa ahead of this trof displaced well off to the n, pcpn will probably hold off until closer approach of the shortwave and associated cold front. So, dry weather will probably linger thru Tue aftn. If any shra develop, the far w would be affected. Will be a little warmer and more humid Tue with dwpts rising to mostly above 60F. Expect some shra/tsra Tue night/Wed as shortwave/associated cold front pass. Dry/slightly cooler and more comfortable weather will follow for Thu. Early indications are for another cold front to approach on Fri. So, there may be some shra at that time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 732 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019 Other than some stray showers attempting to make their way into the vicinity of KIWD this evening from MN, high pressure building in is expected to keep VFR conditions prevailing at all three terminals through this TAF period. N to NE winds will dominate through the period, with them light/calm overnight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 416 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019 Under a weak pressure gradient, winds thru the entire forecast period will be 20kt or less. Patchy to areas of fog could still linger across portions of Lake Superior, especially the e half until drier air moves in tonight. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ241>243-250-251-263-264-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...lg MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1011 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .DISCUSSION... A few showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across parts of the area tonight. These should gradually come to an end. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to low 80s with light winds. Convection this afternoon and evening seems to be driven primarily from an upper level disturbance located across the Midsouth and outflow interactions. The rest of the night should feature decreasing PoPs. The HRRR and RAP are both in agreement with this, however the RAP has been indicating precipitation to move into the area around the early to mid morning time frame. While confidence in this is low, the upper level disturbance will drift closer to the area and this supports keeping slight chance PoPs in the forecast. Made updates to hourly temperatures and dewpoints to better fit latest trends. These updated grids have been published. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 73 90 / 30 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 70 88 / 40 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 73 86 70 88 / 30 50 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 84 / 60 50 50 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ Diegan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
659 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 MCV over Missouri will continue to move slowly ESE toward the area, with a another circulation on 6.19 channel wvapor imagery moving toward west TN. End result is another day with scattered storms, some of which may produce downburst winds and isolated instances of flooding due to very heavy rain. One slow moving more linear area is just west of our SEMO counties, with more random convection over west KY. The convection may diminish slightly this evening or become more consolidated closer to the mid level support moving into and across the area, with expansion Saturday, especially over west KY. Used a blend of the HRRR/NAMNest in the near term for PoPs, and some HRRR incorporation into the going temperature grids. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Models are coming into better agreement in the extended so medium confidence in the extended. Most of the models including some of CAMS show a wind shift to the north by Saturday evening. The ECMWF is a little slower with the cold front passage and tries to hang up over the area during the max heating of the day. This would not be out of the question at all for this time of year and considering how weak the cold front will be... cant rule that scenario out at this time. For the night time hours chances of rain drop off considerably and we should have a north wind across the area with front moving into TN. WPC as even held fropa back until Sunday. We will have to monitor this closely to adjust pops accordingly. Will linger post frontal pops into Sunday but we really start to drop off Sunday night and Monday. The models have finally dried out the forecast Monday night which previously had pops. It will also be slightly cooler with slightly lower dew points but not by very much. We will start to warm back up Wednesday and Thursday ahead of front with temperatures climbing back to around 90 and dew points in the 70s. By Wednesday night into Thursday another cold front will sweep through the area. High pressure will begin to build in toward the end of next week. This should cool us back into the upper 80s for highs by Friday. However at 7 days out I would expect the timing of that last front to meander with successive model runs. && .AVIATION... Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A weak disturbance over eastern Missouri will move east across the Mississippi River into western Kentucky by Saturday. As it does, it will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. Expect a diminishing trend in precipitation coverage this evening, with possible redevelopment of a compact area of showers in closer proximity to the disturbance overnight into Saturday morning. An overall diminishing trend from west to east is expected by Saturday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will be predominant, but may be temporarily reduced with shower and storm activity. Winds will be light and variable. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJP AVIATION...RJP
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1012 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An Appalachian-lee surface trough will remain over the Carolinas through the weekend, beneath weak westerly and occasionally perturbed flow aloft. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1010 PM Friday... 00Z upr air data depict weak wly mid to upr-lvl flow from the TN Valley to the srn middle Atlantic states, at the base of a persistent and compact upr lvl vort max/circulation over nrn WV. Within that weak flow, an MCV from a small convective cluster from near TNB to ROA this evening will likely advect slowly, in the foregoing wly steering flow (5-10 kts in the 500-700 mb layer per 00Z RAOB data) across srn VA/nrn NC through Sat afternoon. At the surface, nwwd-moving composite outflow/sea breeze was evident in TCLT data from near IPJ to INT, and this feature will provide a lingering focus for a few showers and storms across the nw Piedmont for another hour or so, with rain-cooled stability behind it over cntl NC. It should otherwise be a mainly dry night, with perhaps a few showers with glancing MCV forcing over the nrn Piedmont overnight. That feature may then prove influential in convective development/ maintenance from near HNZ to IXA with diurnal heating during the midday-afternoon hours Sat. Muggy with lows mostly in the lwr 70s, with low stratus likely to again envelop the region owing to rich low-lvl moisture characterized by surface dewpoints in the lwr-mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Friday... As opposed to recent days where convection has migrated from southeast to northwest, Sunday looks like a different story where convection forms off of the mountains in response to a sharpening 850 trough during the afternoon and advects eastward into the NW Piedmont by mid to late afternoon and slowly work across the CWA through the evening and overnight hours. At the same time, some convection forming off of the seabreeze will march northwestward but likely remain southeast of the forecast area. Looking at areas west of the Triangle during the mid to late afternoon,2000+ J/Kg of ML CAPE will provide plenty of instability and be accompanied by 15-20 kts of shear. As a result storm mode may take on some resemblance of multicell clusters and may loosely form a linear feature by evening. This is depicted well on the WRF but coverage on the HRRR is much less after 00z Sunday. Would expect the best chance for any severe weather to be in the NW during the better heating and decreasing thereafter. There isn`t much upper level support for supporting convection, but with 15-20 kts of shear, storms may be moving a little more than in previous days which will hopefully mitigate the flooding threat. SPC maintains general thunder across the area with the better dynamics off to the north. High temperatures around 90 with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... The upper level ridge will be anchored in place over the Southwest, with a trough over the eastern U.S. Similarly at the surface the Mid- Atlantic region will be influenced by a persistent trough/low through the extended forecast period. The airmass will remain warm and moist as well, resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across central NC and much of the Mid-Atlantic region. There may be a brief period where the upper level ridge builds into the area between a couple of upper level troughs. The first trough should swing through Sunday through Monday night. The second, deeper trough will dive toward the region out of central Canada Wednesday night or Thursday, swinging through the Great Lakes region by the weekend. More interestingly is the low the medium-range models indicated may develop along the Gulf Coast on Friday/Saturday. This is a system that will bear watching in the coming days, but for now its a bit far out to be confident in its development and evolution. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows fluctuating between mid 60s and mid 70s. There`s a chance we could be a bit of a backdoor cold front sliding into northeast portions of the area early in the week, which could result in a brief "cool down" Monday and Tuesday across the north and northeast. However, confidence in the southward migration of that front is still somewhat low at this time. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 750 PM Friday... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to propagate northwestward with time Friday evening, leaving only VCSH and a broken mid level deck at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. VCTS has been retained at both KINT/KGSO through 03z at the latest, however, uncertainty on whether or not TS/precipitation will register remains high, with storm coverage expected to lessen drastically after sunset. Overnight, expect CIGs to lower and become more dense, with all TAF sites likely to dip at least into MVFR CATs, with possible stints at IFR at KRDU/KINT/KGSO. VSBYs could also dip briefly in the triad between 09z/12z with only minor inconveniences expected. After daybreak, improvement will likely be slow, similar to what was experienced on Friday. For now, I have retained MVFR CIGs through 18z where stratus should finish lifting, being replaced by a building CU field by mid to late afternoon. Storm chances remain uncertain, but likely ISO/SCT convection tomorrow afternoon and evening spreading east of the Blue Ridge after 18z. Have included VCTS for now to account for this. Winds will remain relatively light and variable overnight, becoming primarily southwesterly after sunrise between 04 - 08kts with only seldom gusts. Long term: Daily convection is expected through Monday and possibly beyond as a wet pattern continues over central NC. Early morning fog/low stratus will also remain a possibility each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JJM
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 For tonight, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast mainly with what the surface boundary will do. The RAP continues to suggest the outflow boundary will become less defined through the afternoon while the synoptic boundary remains across some part of the forecast area. Most of the 12Z model guidance showed a weak 850MB boundary setting up near the NEB state line overnight as a 20 to 30KT low level jet developed over southwestern KS. So the expectation is for another round of thunderstorms to move across the area, either developing along the 850MB boundary or moving in from from the west. Confidence in the forecast is below normal because there is a lack of consensus in the models with location and coverage of storms. However with models still indicating precipitable waters around 2 inches storms are likely to remain efficient rain producers. Because of this think there is a high enough probability for flash flooding that I went ahead and issued a flash flood watch for the entire forecast area. Areas across north central KS appear to have the better chance for storms overnight, but I didn`t feel confident enough to split up the counties since a slow moving storm could still produce impressive rain totals. Have not strayed to far from the model consensus and persistence for lows tonight, and think readings should be around 70 once again. Confidence in the forecast does not get any better for Saturday or Saturday night. There could be morning storms once again and the GFS doesn`t push the synoptic boundary very far south for Saturday night. So it wants to redevelop storms with heavy rain across parts of east centrals KS into Sunday morning. Needless to say the forecast continues to carry a chance for showers and thunderstorms. But this forecast is more of a broad brush chance as trying to be very specific with the details is somewhat futile. Models indicate temps should remain relatively cool with a northerly component to surface winds progged and cooler temps at 850. Have highs in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 For Sunday through Tuesday, the pattern doesn`t change much with upper ridging centered to the south of the forecast area with perturbations possibly moving across the state. A warm and moist airmass is expected to persist across the central plains. So chances for showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast. Confidence remains low in the timing and location of storms, but the potential impacts of heavy rainfall could be more significant that the forecast lets on. Another relatively cool day is forecast for Sunday with highs in the 80s. A warming trend is expected through Tuesday with highs back into the lower 90s. Lows should remain around 70s. On Wednesday there is better agreement among the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian solutions for a front to push through the area. This front is expected to usher in a modified surface ridge for the last half of the week pushing the deeper moisture south and east of the forecast area. Upper level ridging is also progged to amplify over the Rockies with some height rises over the central plains. The dryer airmass along with rising heights should favor a more dry weather pattern for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Timing of convection continues to be the primary concern. Similar to the past few days, confidence is low for timing/location of storms overnight. Have delayed the onset of VCTS at the terminals by 2 hours with begin time at MHK at 06Z and the Topeka terminals at 08Z. The bulk of storm activity should be well north of the terminals by 13Z Saturday morning. Winds will remain light from a northeasterly direction. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wolters SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...Baerg