Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
A quasi-zonal flow is set up over the forecast area with embedded
pieces of short wave energy progged to move through the area this
afternoon through early evening. Some showers and a few
thunderstorms will accompany this energy from the Brainerd Lakes,
east through northwest Wisconsin. Thermodynamic profiles are weak,
therefore, the threat for strong to severe storms is low.
This activity will diminish from west to east through the evening,
with all mention of thunder removed by 04Z/11pm. High pressure is in
charge over the rest of the region tonight through Saturday. Cooler
min temps tonight with 50s common, to around 60. Max temps Saturday
will be in the 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
The period will start out relatively quiet with an upper ridge
through the central part of the CONUS. A surface high will be over
the Northland and will slide east Sunday into Sunday night. We
expect dry conditions Saturday night into Sunday night, and it will
be quite cool Saturday night with lows in the forties over much of
the Northland.
There may be some some showers/storms over our western areas Monday
as warmer air moves in along with increasing moisture and decreasing
stability. Differences remain between the models with a shortwave
and cold front in the Monday night to Wednesday period. The GFS
remains faster than the ECMWF and Canadian...although the GFS has
slowed slightly and the ECMWF is a bit quicker than their previous
runs. The Canadian is an outlier compared to the GFS/ECMWF and a
blend of the GFS/ECMWF is preferred. PWAT values will rise to around
1.6 inches ahead of the front on Tuesday and MUCAPE values will be
1500 to around 2500 J/KG. The timing of the front is still in
question, but there will at least be a low threat for severe storms
Tuesday into Tuesday night with a greater chance if the front moves
through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The shortwave will exit the region Wednesday and even the slower
ECMWF suggests most areas of the Northland will be dry by afternoon
lasting into Thursday. An upper ridge will build over the west
Wednesday and only move slowly east toward the Northern Plains by
Friday. The Northland will be in a west/northwest flow aloft mid to
late week with a couple shortwaves moving through the region.
Instability will build back into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
late in the week with chances for showers/storms returning Friday.
High temperatures through most of the week will be a couple degrees
either side of normal, with Wednesday being the coolest day of the
week with highs in the mid to upper seventies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Overall, VFR with fairly light winds overnight and then an
increase in winds off of Lake Superior Saturday. While writing the
discussion, could not explain HZ at KINL, but finally figured out
that it`s smoke from a fire north of the border near Lake Winnipeg
slowly drifting south per the HRRR smoke model. So dropped vsbys
there overnight and tomorrow, but perhaps not low enough given the
humid air mass.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Winds will be 10 knots or less into tonight, but will increase out
of the northeast on Saturday as a broad area of high pressure builds
over Lake Superior. Northeast winds of 10 to around 15 knots are
possible across western Lake Superior, especially at the head of the
lake. This will lead to building waves with wave heights as high as
2 to 3 feet from Two Harbors to Duluth and Duluth to Port Wing.
Winds will diminish Saturday night and Sunday and are expected to be
10 knots or less. There may an isolated thunderstorm tonight, mainly
over the South Shore to the Twin Ports area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 71 51 76 / 60 0 10 10
INL 50 77 47 81 / 0 0 10 0
BRD 60 78 55 79 / 50 0 10 10
HYR 58 78 49 79 / 50 0 10 10
ASX 57 71 47 76 / 40 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
MCS that crossed the area overnight has weakened and shifted east of
the area this afternoon. A meso high has built in across the
forecast area in the wake of the system, and that is helping to keep
conditions stable. There has been some recovery across the Panhandle
due to moist southeast upslope low-level flow and partial sunshine.
Expect storms that are developing across the higher terrain to push
eastward into the Panhandle this evening. The Hi-Res model consensus
is to congeal the storms and dive them southeast through portions of
southwest Nebraska later this evening. This makes sense with
central/north central Nebraska recovering from earlier MCS. As far
as severe potential, overall shear profiles do support some stronger
storm potential. Damaging winds would be the main concern as the
storms dive southeast. We`ll keep the highest pops south of I-80
tonight with lesser chances to the north/northeast.
Quite a bit in the way of cloud cover is expected Saturday, but
expect at least some destabilization of the atmosphere during the
afternoon. The better instability looks to reside across western
Nebraska and the Panhandle. Expect scattered storms to once again
initiate across the higher terrain of WY during the afternoon. These
storms will track east into the Panhandle and far western NE
Saturday evening. HRRR model shows some potential for development
across portions of northwest NE as well. This scenario is more
uncertain with the lack of a low-level boundary to focus
development. Effective shear is ample for at least some storm
organization.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Upper ridging will remain across the Southern Plains through the
middle of next week. Meanwhile a strong shortwave will slowly move
east across southern Canada. General west to southwest flow aloft
can be expected across our region in between these two features.
Several weak pertubations within the flow will yield in scattered
thunderstorms from time to time. Hard to nail down the higher
chances at this point. Overall expect a decrease in pops as we
head toward the last of the week. Upper level ridging begins to
expand northward with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F by weeks
end. Mostly 80s can be expected the early to mid parts of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Thunderstorms a possible this evening into the overnight.
At this time thunderstorms are expected to be scattered. MVFR
conditions are possible after midnight across north central
Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
855 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Showers and thunderstorms have become isolated across the area
with loss of daytime heating. Will maintain a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms tonight as RAP maintains 1000+ J/kg of
MUCAPE as a weak vort max moves across the CWA. Otherwise, may see
some patchy fog late tonight, particularly in river valleys given
high moisture content in the boundary layer under a weak
inversion.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
An MCV was driving areas of SHRA/TSRA across the region late this
afternoon. As the MCV continues to drift to the south and east,
the most active areas of convection should follow suit and begin
moving out of the LSX CWA. In addition, lingering SHRA/TSRA will
also begin to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Taken
together, the overall SHRA/TSRA chances should be diminishing from
northwest to southeast this evening, although isolated SHRA/TSRA
could still percolate among any of the residual boundaries.
Overnight lows tonight should be comparable to last night with
temperatures falling into the upper 60s to mid-70s. The higher
overnight temperatures (mid-70s) are expected across parts of SE
MO and SW IL where the cloud cover should be greatest.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
With little change in the upper air pattern over the next few
days, the forecast will also change very little from what has been
observed over the past few days. The LSX CWA remains along the
periphery of an upper ridge axis, and numerous PV anomalies and/or
MCVs will continue to bring periods of SHRA/TSRA to the region.
It is difficult to pinpoint any one location as more likely to
receive rain than any other location, partly because the entire
region is unstable and partly because of the influence of
mesoscale boundaries whose positions cannot yet be accurately
predicted far enough in advance to justify making significant
changes to the PoP forecast for one geographical area instead of
another. That said, a weak cold front on Saturday could provide
the focus for SHRA/TSRA across the northeastern CWA, assuming that
mesoscale processes do not change the location of the effective
boundary. High PW values suggest that locally heavy rainfall is
also possible, but the aforementioned uncertainty regarding TSRA
locations each day precludes any Flood or Flash Flood Watch
headlines at this time.
Models seem to show that the upper ridge axis shifts westward and
builds across the western CONUS by the end of the upcoming work
week, allowing a PV anomaly to first dive down the eastern side
of the ridge and then move into the Great Lakes. However, the
latest model guidance suggests that this feature is too far north
and east to affect the LSX CWA.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s over
the next several days, with the caveat that thunderstorm activity
will locally suppress daily highs across parts of the area on any
given day. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s
to low/mid- 70s.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Evening showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate early
this evening. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight and
affect KCPS and KSUS with MVFR visibilities between 09-13Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on
Saturday afternoon, though coverage will be too low to go with
any more than VCSH at this time. MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected with the stronger storms.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through Saturday
morning as any remaining showers and thunderstorms are expected to
be isolated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop on Saturday afternoon, though coverage will be too low
to go with any more than VCSH at this time. MVFR/possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities can be expected with the stronger
storms. Any remaining storms will dissipate on early Saturday
evening.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR expected through the TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Here we are, July 5th, the time of year when we should be relaxing
into the summer high pressure bubble of no trouble, but this year
has proven that the rules do not apply. RAP IR Satellite analysis
shows a messy ridge over the central U.S. with several weaknesses.
Models are having a slightly difficult time resolving these
weaknesses over the next few days as the high retrogrades west into
NM. Either way, unsettled weather appears likely through the weekend
until the high finds its final residence west of us next week. A
weak frontal boundary tries to push through Saturday night, though
this round of model runs isn`t as keen on it sweeping too far south.
Again, this is a year that isn`t following rules, so it`s likely
this one will push well into the Lubbock FA, and it will serve as a
focus for convective activity Saturday night into Sunday.
The real question is what happens after the weekend. One take keeps
the dirty ridge, trapping moisture and giving us a shot at spotty
afternoon convection each day. The other take presents the
traditional high pressure, clean bubble to our west, keeping us
dry...and hot. Attm, would like to see another round or two of model
runs before siding with either, and honestly, tending to think we`ll
see a blend of the two...hot with late afternoon pop-up
thunderstorms. Again, want to see another round, though.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wsw mid/upper level flow
through the Northern Great Lakes between a ridge through the mid
Atlantic and southeast CONUS and a trough over Hudson Bay. Another
MCV/shrtwv supporting shra and a few ts over cntrl MN was slowly
drifting to the east. Otherwise, sfc ridging from southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba and nw Ontario was building toward the
area with partly cloudy skies and drying into ne MN. MLCAPE values
in the 500-1000 J/Kg away from the stabilizing influence of Lake
Superior has supported some isold shra over nrn Menominee county.
Tonight, expect the showers over the south to slowly drift to the
south and weaken this evening. Model trends and short range models
suggest that the shra associated with the MCV will remain mainly
south of Upper Michigan. However, some lighter rain may extend
northeast into western Lake Superior and possibly far western Upper
Michigan as upper level div with the right entrance of the jet over
nw Ontario and associated mid level fgen supports northeastward
expansion of the pcpn. Light northerly winds continue to bring in
slightly drier air and reduce potential for fog development.
Saturday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into Upper
Michigan with much drier air finally moving in. Mixing should help
drop dewpoints into the 40s over much of the area as temps climb
into the 70s to around 80 inland. Onshore flow will keep readings in
the 60s near Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019
A -NAO and -AO have prevailed since late Apr and early May,
respectively, supporting the overall blo normal temp regime across
Upper MI during May and Jun. The NAO has stayed consistently in the
negative phase, though only weakly at times, and the AO has briefly
shifted to the positive phase just a couple of times. Overall, it`s
an impressive duration for both being negative/predominately
negative. The AO/NAO have trended more strongly negative recently,
but the GEFS indicates both to weaken, and perhaps go to the
positive phase in the next week or two. We`ll see. Until the high
latitude anomalies breakdown for a significant period of time, seems
unlikely that any long duration, abnormally warm periods will be in
the offing for Upper MI as some degree of troffing will be favored
in eastern Canada more often than not, allowing for cold fropas from
time to time. Overall, temps over the next week or so should mostly
be around normal to above normal given the positive 500mb height
anomalies that will generally prevail. Coolest weather of the next 7
days should occur over the weekend. As for pcpn, the w half of Upper
MI was becoming abnormally dry after a very dry June. Fortunately,
needed rainfall occurred for much of that area in recent days,
yesterday in particular, though there were some exceptions, such as
the Keweenaw. Dry weather will dominate early next week as broad
ridging over the Plains sharpens up thru the western Great Lakes in
response to a shortwave trof moving inland from the W Coast. As this
trof continues eastward, it will bring the only meaningful chc of
pcpn for the next 7 days during the midweek period.
Beginning Sat night/Sun, quiet, dry weather will be the rule with
broad ridging upstream supporting sfc high pres over the Upper Great
Lakes. Will be a cool night Sat night under calm winds and
precipitable water as low as around 0.4 inches, 40pct of normal.
Favored the lower side of guidance for mins. Most of the interior
will be down into the 40s. A few of the traditional cold spots could
dip just blo 40F. Sun will be a pleasant day with dwpts comfortably
low, ranging from the 40s west to the low/mid 50s closer to the
Lakes. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80F, but lake breezes will
rule the day.
Although high pres drifts off to the e on Mon, dry weather will
continue under rising heights with sharpening mid-level ridge
approaching. Temps overall will be 3 to 5F higher than Sun. Dwpts
will edge up into the 50s...some 60s near the Lakes.
Shortwave trof moving across the northern Rockies Mon will reach the
Northern Plains Tue night and the western Great Lakes on Wed. With
main zone of waa ahead of this trof displaced well off to the n,
pcpn will probably hold off until closer approach of the shortwave
and associated cold front. So, dry weather will probably linger thru
Tue aftn. If any shra develop, the far w would be affected. Will be
a little warmer and more humid Tue with dwpts rising to mostly above
60F.
Expect some shra/tsra Tue night/Wed as shortwave/associated cold
front pass. Dry/slightly cooler and more comfortable weather will
follow for Thu. Early indications are for another cold front to
approach on Fri. So, there may be some shra at that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 732 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019
Other than some stray showers attempting to make their way into
the vicinity of KIWD this evening from MN, high pressure building
in is expected to keep VFR conditions prevailing at all three
terminals through this TAF period. N to NE winds will dominate
through the period, with them light/calm overnight.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 416 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019
Under a weak pressure gradient, winds thru the entire forecast
period will be 20kt or less. Patchy to areas of fog could still
linger across portions of Lake Superior, especially the e half until
drier air moves in tonight.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
LSZ241>243-250-251-263-264-266-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1011 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across parts
of the area tonight. These should gradually come to an end.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to low 80s with light
winds. Convection this afternoon and evening seems to be driven
primarily from an upper level disturbance located across the
Midsouth and outflow interactions. The rest of the night should
feature decreasing PoPs. The HRRR and RAP are both in agreement
with this, however the RAP has been indicating precipitation to
move into the area around the early to mid morning time frame.
While confidence in this is low, the upper level disturbance will
drift closer to the area and this supports keeping slight chance
PoPs in the forecast. Made updates to hourly temperatures and
dewpoints to better fit latest trends. These updated grids have
been published.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 73 90 / 30 30 30 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 70 88 / 40 40 40 60
Oak Ridge, TN 73 86 70 88 / 30 50 60 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 84 / 60 50 50 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
Diegan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
659 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
MCV over Missouri will continue to move slowly ESE toward the area,
with a another circulation on 6.19 channel wvapor imagery moving
toward west TN. End result is another day with scattered storms,
some of which may produce downburst winds and isolated instances of
flooding due to very heavy rain. One slow moving more linear area
is just west of our SEMO counties, with more random convection
over west KY. The convection may diminish slightly this evening or
become more consolidated closer to the mid level support moving
into and across the area, with expansion Saturday, especially over
west KY. Used a blend of the HRRR/NAMNest in the near term for
PoPs, and some HRRR incorporation into the going temperature grids.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Models are coming into better agreement in the extended so medium
confidence in the extended.
Most of the models including some of CAMS show a wind shift to the
north by Saturday evening. The ECMWF is a little slower with the
cold front passage and tries to hang up over the area during the max
heating of the day. This would not be out of the question at all for
this time of year and considering how weak the cold front will be...
cant rule that scenario out at this time. For the night time hours
chances of rain drop off considerably and we should have a north
wind across the area with front moving into TN. WPC as even held
fropa back until Sunday. We will have to monitor this closely to
adjust pops accordingly. Will linger post frontal pops into Sunday
but we really start to drop off Sunday night and Monday. The models
have finally dried out the forecast Monday night which previously
had pops. It will also be slightly cooler with slightly lower dew
points but not by very much. We will start to warm back up Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of front with temperatures climbing back to
around 90 and dew points in the 70s. By Wednesday night into
Thursday another cold front will sweep through the area. High
pressure will begin to build in toward the end of next week. This
should cool us back into the upper 80s for highs by Friday. However
at 7 days out I would expect the timing of that last front to
meander with successive model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
A weak disturbance over eastern Missouri will move east across the
Mississippi River into western Kentucky by Saturday. As it does,
it will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms. Expect a diminishing trend in precipitation
coverage this evening, with possible redevelopment of a compact
area of showers in closer proximity to the disturbance overnight
into Saturday morning. An overall diminishing trend from west to
east is expected by Saturday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions
will be predominant, but may be temporarily reduced with shower
and storm activity. Winds will be light and variable.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1012 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An Appalachian-lee surface trough will remain over the Carolinas
through the weekend, beneath weak westerly and occasionally
perturbed flow aloft.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...
00Z upr air data depict weak wly mid to upr-lvl flow from the TN
Valley to the srn middle Atlantic states, at the base of a
persistent and compact upr lvl vort max/circulation over nrn WV.
Within that weak flow, an MCV from a small convective cluster from
near TNB to ROA this evening will likely advect slowly, in the
foregoing wly steering flow (5-10 kts in the 500-700 mb layer per
00Z RAOB data) across srn VA/nrn NC through Sat afternoon.
At the surface, nwwd-moving composite outflow/sea breeze was evident
in TCLT data from near IPJ to INT, and this feature will provide a
lingering focus for a few showers and storms across the nw Piedmont
for another hour or so, with rain-cooled stability behind it over
cntl NC.
It should otherwise be a mainly dry night, with perhaps a few
showers with glancing MCV forcing over the nrn Piedmont overnight.
That feature may then prove influential in convective development/
maintenance from near HNZ to IXA with diurnal heating during the
midday-afternoon hours Sat. Muggy with lows mostly in the lwr 70s,
with low stratus likely to again envelop the region owing to rich
low-lvl moisture characterized by surface dewpoints in the lwr-mid
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Friday...
As opposed to recent days where convection has migrated from
southeast to northwest, Sunday looks like a different story where
convection forms off of the mountains in response to a sharpening
850 trough during the afternoon and advects eastward into the NW
Piedmont by mid to late afternoon and slowly work across the CWA
through the evening and overnight hours. At the same time, some
convection forming off of the seabreeze will march northwestward but
likely remain southeast of the forecast area. Looking at areas west
of the Triangle during the mid to late afternoon,2000+ J/Kg of ML
CAPE will provide plenty of instability and be accompanied by 15-20
kts of shear. As a result storm mode may take on some resemblance of
multicell clusters and may loosely form a linear feature by evening.
This is depicted well on the WRF but coverage on the HRRR is much
less after 00z Sunday. Would expect the best chance for any severe
weather to be in the NW during the better heating and decreasing
thereafter. There isn`t much upper level support for supporting
convection, but with 15-20 kts of shear, storms may be moving a
little more than in previous days which will hopefully mitigate the
flooding threat. SPC maintains general thunder across the area with
the better dynamics off to the north. High temperatures around 90
with lows in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
The upper level ridge will be anchored in place over the Southwest,
with a trough over the eastern U.S. Similarly at the surface the Mid-
Atlantic region will be influenced by a persistent trough/low
through the extended forecast period. The airmass will remain warm
and moist as well, resulting in daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across central NC and much of the Mid-Atlantic region.
There may be a brief period where the upper level ridge builds into
the area between a couple of upper level troughs. The first trough
should swing through Sunday through Monday night. The second, deeper
trough will dive toward the region out of central Canada Wednesday
night or Thursday, swinging through the Great Lakes region by the
weekend. More interestingly is the low the medium-range models
indicated may develop along the Gulf Coast on Friday/Saturday. This
is a system that will bear watching in the coming days, but for now
its a bit far out to be confident in its development and evolution.
As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the mid 80s to low
90s and lows fluctuating between mid 60s and mid 70s. There`s a
chance we could be a bit of a backdoor cold front sliding into
northeast portions of the area early in the week, which could result
in a brief "cool down" Monday and Tuesday across the north and
northeast. However, confidence in the southward migration of that
front is still somewhat low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM Friday...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to propagate
northwestward with time Friday evening, leaving only VCSH and a
broken mid level deck at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. VCTS has been retained at
both KINT/KGSO through 03z at the latest, however, uncertainty on
whether or not TS/precipitation will register remains high, with
storm coverage expected to lessen drastically after sunset.
Overnight, expect CIGs to lower and become more dense, with all TAF
sites likely to dip at least into MVFR CATs, with possible stints at
IFR at KRDU/KINT/KGSO. VSBYs could also dip briefly in the triad
between 09z/12z with only minor inconveniences expected. After
daybreak, improvement will likely be slow, similar to what was
experienced on Friday. For now, I have retained MVFR CIGs through
18z where stratus should finish lifting, being replaced by a
building CU field by mid to late afternoon. Storm chances remain
uncertain, but likely ISO/SCT convection tomorrow afternoon and
evening spreading east of the Blue Ridge after 18z. Have included
VCTS for now to account for this. Winds will remain relatively light
and variable overnight, becoming primarily southwesterly after
sunrise between 04 - 08kts with only seldom gusts.
Long term: Daily convection is expected through Monday and possibly
beyond as a wet pattern continues over central NC. Early morning
fog/low stratus will also remain a possibility each morning.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JJM
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
For tonight, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the
forecast mainly with what the surface boundary will do. The RAP
continues to suggest the outflow boundary will become less defined
through the afternoon while the synoptic boundary remains across
some part of the forecast area. Most of the 12Z model guidance
showed a weak 850MB boundary setting up near the NEB state line
overnight as a 20 to 30KT low level jet developed over
southwestern KS. So the expectation is for another round of
thunderstorms to move across the area, either developing along the
850MB boundary or moving in from from the west. Confidence in the
forecast is below normal because there is a lack of consensus in
the models with location and coverage of storms. However with
models still indicating precipitable waters around 2 inches storms
are likely to remain efficient rain producers. Because of this
think there is a high enough probability for flash flooding that I
went ahead and issued a flash flood watch for the entire forecast
area. Areas across north central KS appear to have the better
chance for storms overnight, but I didn`t feel confident enough to
split up the counties since a slow moving storm could still
produce impressive rain totals. Have not strayed to far from the
model consensus and persistence for lows tonight, and think
readings should be around 70 once again.
Confidence in the forecast does not get any better for Saturday or
Saturday night. There could be morning storms once again and the GFS
doesn`t push the synoptic boundary very far south for Saturday
night. So it wants to redevelop storms with heavy rain across parts
of east centrals KS into Sunday morning. Needless to say the
forecast continues to carry a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
But this forecast is more of a broad brush chance as trying to be
very specific with the details is somewhat futile. Models indicate
temps should remain relatively cool with a northerly component to
surface winds progged and cooler temps at 850. Have highs in the mid
and upper 80s. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the upper
60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
For Sunday through Tuesday, the pattern doesn`t change much with
upper ridging centered to the south of the forecast area with
perturbations possibly moving across the state. A warm and moist
airmass is expected to persist across the central plains. So
chances for showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast.
Confidence remains low in the timing and location of storms, but
the potential impacts of heavy rainfall could be more significant
that the forecast lets on. Another relatively cool day is forecast
for Sunday with highs in the 80s. A warming trend is expected
through Tuesday with highs back into the lower 90s. Lows should
remain around 70s.
On Wednesday there is better agreement among the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
solutions for a front to push through the area. This front is
expected to usher in a modified surface ridge for the last half of
the week pushing the deeper moisture south and east of the forecast
area. Upper level ridging is also progged to amplify over the
Rockies with some height rises over the central plains. The dryer
airmass along with rising heights should favor a more dry weather
pattern for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019
Timing of convection continues to be the primary concern. Similar
to the past few days, confidence is low for timing/location of
storms overnight. Have delayed the onset of VCTS at the terminals
by 2 hours with begin time at MHK at 06Z and the Topeka terminals
at 08Z. The bulk of storm activity should be well north of the
terminals by 13Z Saturday morning. Winds will remain light from a
northeasterly direction.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Baerg