Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
At 3 PM, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms was located
across southeast Minnesota. This cluster was moving northeast and
it is expected to continue to move through west-central Wisconsin
and potentially through north-central Wisconsin through this
evening. With downdraft CAPES between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, there is
a potential for some strong, gusty winds in areas where a core
collapses. In addition, maybe some hail in the half to 1 inch
range.
Further to the east and southeast, there are isolated to
scattered showers extending from northern Houston County through
Madison. With weak convergence, expect not much change in this
activity as it moves northeast though Central Wisconsin.
Elsewhere, there are scattered showers and storms in western Iowa.
This is associated with a MCV. The ESSRL HRRR seems to have a good
handle on this activity and it shows that this precipitation will
move northeast across northeast Iowa and central and southwest
Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. With very weak shear,
not anticipating any organized severe weather. However, would not
be too surprised to see some gusty winds from them.
On the 4th, a shortwave trough will be moving slowly east through
the area. Like today, ML CAPES will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg
and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km will remain weak. The CAMs continue to
show multiple lines of storms moving through the area. The first
line moves through from mid to late morning into the early
afternoon. The second line moves through from mid to to late
afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms could be
potentially strong in either of these lines.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
On Friday afternoon and evening, another shortwave trough will
move east through the region. ML CAPES will range from 1500 to
3000 J/kg. The 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear is stronger than this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon, but still is not strong enough
for organized convection. However, there is still the potential
for a couple of pulse storms. The main threat would be gusty
winds.
It still looks like high pressure will build across the area for
the upcoming weekend. This high will provide mainly dry conditions
for much of the forecast area. If showers and storms were to
develop, they would be located near Interstate 35.
For early next week, the front will move back north into the area.
This will bring a return of showers and storms to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Dry conditions expected at both TAF sites overnight. With plenty
of residual low level moisture from high humidity and recent
rainfall, there will once again be fog potential late tonight, but
the setup does not look quite as favorable as last night. MVFR
visibilities will be possible, with perhaps a dip into IFR for a
short time.
Main concern on Thursday will be a disturbance pushing through
the area in the afternoon, which is expected to pop scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Still some lingering
uncertainty with timing and coverage of this convection, so have
left thunder out of this TAF issuance and have gone with tempo
showers. Locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds will be
possible with any storms that develop, and this activity should
diminish towards sunset.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
WV imagery indicates a weak southwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of low pressure
is located across southeast Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
The main focus for this evening is if there will be storms in the FA
or not. An increasing cumulus field is seen on visible satellite across
the far eastern zones. There will be plenty of CAPE for storm development.
Wind shear is non-existent so storms are not expected to be severe.
Will carry some pops across the eastern zones this afternoon and evening.
The latest HRRR keeps the entire area storm free while other meso models
do have isolated storms. The main threat from the storms will be heavy
rainfall as PWATs remain over an inch across the greater region. Some
marginal wind may be possible as well as there is some DCAPE present.
Otherwise, the rest of the FA will remain dry tonight with lows in
the 60s and 70s. For tomorrow, a hot one is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Will keep a dry forecast going as any convection
looks to remain well north of the FA. Temperatures around firework
time look to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a light SE/S wind
of 5 to 15 mph. Overall, tomorrow and tomorrow night looks like your
typical Summer day/night across SW Kansas with no serious weather impacts
for those outside.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
The extended period will be marked by your typical summer-time Kansas
weather. Warm to hot and mainly dry, except for perhaps a storm or
two. Speaking of storms, the EC is indicating an MCS moving through
Saturday evening into Sunday. THE NBM higher pops and slightly lower
temps look on track for now. SW Kansas will be at the tail end of the
westerlies, so overall this does make sense. Beyond that, a slightly
drier pattern and warm to hot temps are expected to resume.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
A small cluster of redeveloping thunderstorms will remain in the
vicinity of the HYS terminals through at least sunset. If a storms
can develop or back build toward the terminal, gusts up to 40
knots could be possible with heavy rain, and small hail. Other
than that, there is little chance any of the other terminals will
be impacted by convection for the remainder of the evening based
on the recent short term model output and recent radar trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 95 70 96 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 66 97 68 96 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 66 97 68 96 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 67 96 68 96 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 68 96 71 96 / 20 10 10 30
P28 72 96 73 98 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
907 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.UPDATE...
After a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, things have settled down this evening. Temperatures are
running in the low to mid 80s at most locations, with the radar
picking up only a little ground clutter here and there. With the
absence of diurnal heating, and weak synoptic scale descent in the
wake of a departing shortwave trough (as seen on 500 mb 00Z
analysis), not expecting much in the way of precipitation during
the overnight. The HRRR does hint at the possibility of a stray
shower or two down in Central Texas, but nothing some quiet 10
percent PoPs can`t cover.
For Independence Day, look for a day similar to today with highs
in the 90s along with isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. We are not expecting any storms to result in an
all-day washout, but any storms that do manage to develop will
certainly be capable of producing brief heavy downpours,
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and gusty winds in
excess of 30 mph. The weather should be quiet for most locations,
but keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, just in case, and be
prepared to move inside if skies threaten and/or thunder is heard,
but again, any storms should be fairly brief at a given location.
Have a fun and safe Fourth of July!
37
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/
/00Z TAFs/
Concerns -- Waning evening convection...MVFR Thursday morning...renewed
convective chances Thursday afternoon.
Regional 88Ds continue to show isolated to widely scattered
convection across parts of North and Central TX...with the
greatest coverage being found about 50 nm either side of a KLHB-
KMNZ line. For this reason...VCTS will continue at KACT for
another couple of hours. To the north...lightning activity has
been sparse to non-existent with convection in and around the D10
TRACON...thus will cover with VCSH for another couple of
hours...but would not be entirely surprised if we saw a lightning
strike or two before all is said and done.
After the convection dissipates this evening...model guidance is
in strong agreement that the forecast area will receive a poleward
surge of low-level moisture...likely dropping cigs to MVFR a
little before daybreak. MVFR will persist through mid-morning
before giving way to VFR in the afternoon once again. Speaking of
the afternoon...renewed diurnally-driven convection can be
expected once again with coverage expected to be isolated to
widely scattered...thus VCTS will be carried at all TAF sites
during the late afternoon hours. Any TS that do manage to impact
area terminals will be capable of brief +RA...occasional CG...and
gusty and erratic winds of 20-30 KT.
37
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/
/Through Tonight/
Persistent morning clouds kept temperatures in check today, with
afternoon highs remaining a few degrees shy of normal. With a
weak upper trough parked overhead, diurnal shower and storm
activity has been percolating since noon, and will continue into
the early evening hours. The greatest coverage will be east of
I-35 and south of I-30, but an isolated shower or storm could
creep farther northwestward into the DFW area as well. While
severe storms generally aren`t expected, lightning, gusty winds,
and brief heavy rain can be expected with more robust cells. Those
with Independence Day-related outdoor activities should keep an
eye on the radar through the evening. Even if storms do not
directly impact a given location, thunderstorm outflow and
associated wind shifts may also be of concern. Activity is
expected to dissipate by 8 or 9pm as heating wanes.
Overnight, a lull in rain chances can be expected with
temperatures falling into the low 80s by 10pm and upper 70s
around midnight. Another round of low stratus will invade much of
the forecast area after midnight and persist into Thursday
morning.
-Stalley
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/
/Independence Day through next Wednesday/
In true summer style, mid-level ridging will assert itself across
the Central CONUS through the course of this forecast period,
delivering daytime temperatures that will steadily approach the
century mark across North and Central Texas by early next week.
The mid-level trough which has lingered over North Texas through
midweek will remain organized on Thursday, providing one more
elevated opportunity for diurnal convection. With the axis
oriented more or less from Sherman to Lampasas, we`ll maintain
chance PoPs for the afternoon hours Thursday, primarily east of
the I-35 corridor. Most of these cells should dissipate prior to
sunset, but isolated activity **may** linger long enough to
temporarily impact any fireworks shows or other evening
activities across the region.
By Friday, the upper trough will have largely dissipated,
replaced by upper ridging that will continue to intensify through
early next week. The obvious net effect will be an absence of
PoPs, more sunshine, and increasing daytime temps from the weekend
into next week. Have maintained very low PoPs Saturday and Sunday
across the Red River counties, for the remote possibility of
convective complexes dropping southward out of Oklahoma.
Otherwise, daytime temps will be rising into the upper 90s by
Monday/Tuesday, with some spots reaching the century mark in our
western zones by early next week.
Some model discrepancies do emerge by the middle of next week,
with the Euro, GFS and Canadian depicting the upper ridge sliding
either west or north away from our region. Depending on the
orientation of the upper flow, we may see a slight increase in
PoPs from mid week onward to next weekend, as well as some minor
relief in daytime temperatures. Didn`t add any PoPs for next
Wednesday, but did depict a slight decrease in highs for that day,
owing to the retrograding ridge.
Bradshaw
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 76 95 76 / 20 20 5 10 10
Waco 75 92 74 94 73 / 20 20 5 5 5
Paris 72 87 73 90 74 / 20 30 10 10 10
Denton 76 91 75 95 76 / 10 20 5 10 10
McKinney 75 90 75 94 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
Dallas 76 92 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
Terrell 75 91 74 94 74 / 20 30 10 10 5
Corsicana 74 91 73 91 72 / 20 30 5 5 5
Temple 74 92 73 94 73 / 20 20 5 5 0
Mineral Wells 74 92 73 95 74 / 10 20 5 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
37/30
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
931 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has decreased since earlier
this evening with loss of daytime heating. Expect this trend to
continue into the overnight hours. Will continue with chance PoPS
for additional showers and thunderstorms over northeast and
central MO into west central IL late tonight with the approach of
the remnant MCV collocated where the RAP is showing increased low
level moisture convergence. The most recent runs of the CAMS
reflectivity continue to show development in these areas.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Thunderstorm activity, like the past couple of days, should weaken
and eventually dissipate by late this evening due to the loss of
daytime instability. The remnant MCV currently near the MO/KS border
will continue to heat slowly to the east/northeast and this feature
may have to be watched for possible additional activity overnight
tonight. CAMs keep it fairly quiet associated with this feature
overnight, but yet another MCV is expected to develop associated
with overnight convection in eastern Kansas. This feature will
propagate eastward through the day on Thursday, and could help
provide a bit more focus for storms just downstream of it tomorrow
across the northwestern half of the CWA. Given that this feature
does not exist yet, the confidence in this scenario is not
particularly high. Regardless, additional scattered storms are
likely areawide due to moderate instability in an uncapped
atmosphere. These storms, like today and the previous couple of
days, should weaken and eventually dissipate during the evening
hours on Thursday. This should provide a window of dry weather for
4th of July festivities.
Little to no change in expected temperatures through the short-term
forecast period. Persistence remains a very good forecast, with lows
tonight and Thursday night mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and
highs for the 4th in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Humidity will
also remain high, so look for maximum heat index values to be in the
mid to upper 90s during the afternoon. All in all, a very typical
4th of July is forecast for the bi-state area with seasonably
hot/humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening hours.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Summertime weather pattern will remain in place heading into early
this weekend with seasonably hot/humid conditions and a chance of
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. The mid/upper level ridge
begins to breakdown late this weekend allowing a slow-moving cold
front to move through the CWA. This frontal passage will provide
another chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday night
through early Sunday. A brief period drier and slightly cooler
weather is likely to conclude the upcoming holiday week heading into
possibly early next week. Flow aloft becomes more zonal however
thereafter so expect temperatures to moderate back to near or just
above normal along with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east of the
terminals and are expected to dissipate in the next few hours.
Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected late this evening into
the overnight hours. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms will
move into the area by late morning into Thursday afternoon. Will
continue with VCSH at all the terminals with low VFR ceilings,
though MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with the
heavier storms.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Expect showers and thunderstorms to move away from the terminal by
01Z. Then mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through at
least late morning before additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms move into eastern Missouri. Will continue with VCSH
with low VFR ceilings, though MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible with the heavier storms.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details
on Independence Day weather and expected weekend conditions...and
beyond. Keene
&&
.AVIATION...For the 04/00Z TAFS...VFR will continue through the
evening. There is a chance for thunderstorms form the Cascades east,
and any heavier showers could result in periods of localized MVFR
and areas of terrain obscuration. Patchy MVFR/IFR will redevelop
tonight along the coast and the Umpqua Valley, with clearing
expected by late morning or early afternoon. All other areas should
remain VFR through the TAF period. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, 3 July 2019...
A relatively weak thermal trough pattern will persist into the
weekend. North winds and seas will increase a bit more each
afternoon and evening in areas south of Cape Blanco, where small
craft advisory conditions will persist. Winds may weaken a bit
Saturday.
-BTL/BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2019/
DISCUSSION...The 2:00 PM water vapor satellites are continuing to
show dry air in the low levels largely west of the Cascades with
some deeper moisture in some clouds positioned over eastern
Klamath and western Lake Counties. Meanwhile, moisture levels in
the mid to upper atmosphere are showing a bit more water vapor.
This is in part of a larger trough, or low pressure system moving
through the Pacific Northwest with a shortwave disturbance moving
through the area from the north and west. This is showing some
more widespread cumulus clouds across the east side as well as
along the terrain of the Umpqua Divide, Siskiyous and the
Cascades.
This shortwave will be the cause of thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, mainly east of the Cascades and for areas of Modoc
County. The day cloud phase is beginning to show some glaciation
(or liquid cloud drops turning to ice) east of the Cascades. So
far, these ice and water clouds have no amounted to anything, but
this will change soon, and we could expect thunderstorms to start
in the next hour or two.
Thunderstorms will generally end this evening as soon as the sun
sets and cuts off energy for instability, and tonight should be
mainly be cloud free, with the exception of areas at the coast
where the marine stratus deck could push inland.
For tomorrow, things start to dry out and warm up across southern
Oregon and northern California. The July 4th holiday should be
rain and mainly cloud free for any afternoon and evening revelry.
Of course the marine layer could bring in some stratus at the
coast, but am being optimistic that the deck will wait until after
any holiday displays before returning.
This warming and drying period will continue through Saturday with
things returning to normal or slightly above normal. Then on
Sunday, another short-wave is expected to come through. It`s
unsure whether or not we`ll have enough moisture on Sunday to
promote thunderstorms east of the Cascades and in Modoc County,
and ensemble guidance is not showing a whole lot, so did raise the
rain chances for a silent 10% chance in these areas on Sunday. For
Monday, another short-wave will come through and chances are that
moisture will be abundant enough for Thunderstorms to occur,
especially if you believe the ECMWF and Canadian models. Have gone
with the ensemble forecast and blended toward slightly higher rain
chances to put in an actual mention of thunderstorms for areas
east of the Cascades and Modoc County in northern California.
After that, things start to become even more murky as the models
are debating whether or not the troughing pattern continues or if
we have a start to another significant warming and drying trend--
coincident with the Jackson County Fair. For now, am going with
the ensemble guidance which is showing the ridge (indicative of
hot and dry), but confidence is low, and will have to continue to
evaluate as the models struggle in the extended. -Schaaf
FIRE WEATHER...2:30 PM PDT Wednesday, July 3, 2019...Radar shows
isolated cells developing this afternoon east of the Cascades and
latest HRRR supports only isolated activity over the next several
hours as short wave drops south. Warmer/drier weather expected on
the 4th and into Friday. Breezier and a bit cooler under digging
upper trough this weekend. Some slim chance on Sun aftn/eve for
thunder across the east, but not yet to mentionable probability.
Continued shortwave activity likely Monday in base of upper trough
and have sided with the NBM pops here so more thunder in the
forecast. Fair spread in model solutions thereafter Tues- Thurs,
but latest ensemble means are pointing toward a cooler Tuesday
than previously thought. Fair uncertainty remains into Wed- Thu.
Stavish
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 438 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep mid-level low over
northern Manitoba. To its s, lower amplitude flow across the
northern CONUS features a trof over the nw CONUS and then broad
ridging extending e across the Great Lakes region. In the resulting
wsw flow into the northern Great Lakes, a shortwave has moved from
the eastern Dakotas this morning to ne MN. Some shra/tsra are
accompanying this wave just nw of Lake Superior. Closer to home,
it`s been a mostly sunny, very warm day. Temps have risen well into
the 80s to near 90F in the interior. Generally where temps are
warmest, deep mixing has resulted in dwpts falling back into the 50s
to make conditions not too uncomfortable. Dwpt has even fallen to
47F at KLNL. Where temps are lower, dwpts are higher in the low to
mid 60s (even upper 60s near Lake MI), making for a more
uncomfortable aftn. Lake breezes are the rule across the board, so
lakeside conditions are coolest. Fog persists on the Great Lakes.
Fog was especially widespread on Lake MI, but it has surprisingly
diminished rapidly this aftn. Fog on Lake Superior is mainly over
the e half, but it has shown some expansion on the w half. This fog
will likely hang around until a cold fropa occurs.
Tonight, a shortwave is fcst to eject from the western trof and lift
out across the Dakotas during the night and into MN Thu morning.
With little response to the low-level jet ahead of this feature and
no waa into the northern Great Lakes, any shra/tsra activity that
might develop toward Upper MI will be very limited. Theta-e ridging
does build into far western Upper MI toward 12z, and that might
support some shra toward/after sunrise. Also of note is the cluster
of tsra over se MN. If this convection is tied to a subtle
shortwave, then some shra/tsra may arrive overnight, earlier than
currently expected. Trends on this convection will need to monitored
thru the evening. Otherwise, expect a mild night tonight with min
temps in the mid 50s to mid, even upper, 60s, coolest in the
interior. Could be some patchy fog over the s central and near Lake
MI overnight.
Unfortunately, for Independence Day, the approaching shortwave is
likely lead to sct shra/tsra over the w half of Upper MI, mainly in
the aftn. The e half will remain dry. MLCAPE is generally fcst to
reach 1500 to perhaps 2000j/kg. With deep layer shear of 25 to near
30kt, will likely see a few stronger storms with the potential of
gusty winds/small hail. In addition, with precipitable water up to
1.75 inches, 200+pct of normal, torrential rainfall will accompany
some of the storms. Provided there isn`t too much cloud cover, high
temps will again be well into the 80s to near 90F. The w should be
cooler than today with more clouds and sct shra/tsra. Compared to
today, lake breeze cooling near Lake Superior will be much more
limited on Thu due to an increase in southerly gradient winds. For
most locations, dwpts will edge up a little from today, so it will
feel more uncomfortable for outdoor activities.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019
Quasi-zonal flow and subtle shortwaves tracking east across the
Upper Great Lakes will bring chance for showers and thunderstorms to
close out the work week. Then, high pressure moving from Canada will
bring a welcome break from the heat and humidity this weekend. Early
to mid next week, the upper-air pattern becomes a bit more amplified
across the heart of the country, bringing back warm and humid
conditions, along with precipitation chances.
Thursday night, the main concern is showers and thunderstorms
pushing west to east across the Upper Peninsula. With the shortwave
tracking east across the area being rather subtle aloft and a rather
weak cold front, the models are struggling a bit with the timing or
better chance for thunderstorm activity. Right now, the best chances
appear to be across the west and portions of central Upper Michigan
between 8pm and 11pm EDT. While we will lose diurnal heating as we
progress through the evening hours, there does appear to be enough
surface based instability transitioning to elevated instability,
between 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, for thunderstorms to work with.
However, deep layer shear doesn`t look terribly impressive so
thinking that thunderstorm activity will be more pulse-type, making
them even more difficult to forecast a place/time as there could be
multiple boundaries floating around for initiation. If a stronger
storm can maintain an organized updraft, small hail and strong,
gusty downdraft winds will be possible, along with locally heavy
rain. As we progress through the overnight and early morning hours
on Friday, any lingering showers/storms should weaken and/or
dissipate. Another weather concern to keep an eye on is the marine
layer/fog. With continued humid conditions and additional
precipitation possible over the lake, once winds switch around to
the west-northwest behind the front, models are picking up on the
marine layer pushing inland along the shoreline of Lake Superior. A
few of the high-res models are depicting upslope lift allowing the
depth of the marine layer to grow deep enough for mist/drizzle to
develop over the west, and especially the Keweenaw.
Friday, towards daybreak the front will continue to exit the area
switching wind around to the west-northwest. This will push the
marine layer in on the Lake Superior shoreline, primarily east of
Marquette. Another shortwave is expected to lift across the region,
bringing with it renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the south central late in the day. Deep layer shear
is a bit more impressive Friday afternoon, so it will depend on how
far north the instability axis can build during the afternoon as to
whether or not we see any strong storms across the south central.
Elsewhere, locations near the Lake Superior shoreline will likely
continue to deal with marine layer/fog issues until we start to get
some significantly drier air into the region Friday night/Saturday
morning.
The upcoming weekend is shaping up to be a beautiful one, with less
humidity, more-seasonable temperatures and dry weather!
Unfortunately, this trend will be short-lived as the upper-air
pattern becomes more amplified across the heart of the country
early/mid next week. This amplified pattern will bring back the
warmth and humidity, along with increased chance for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the overnight
period, with light winds. As a disturbance approaches the Upper
Great Lakes tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on
the increase across Upper Michigan from west to east, leaving KIWD
the first terminal to perhaps see some storms in its vicinity,
followed by KCMX, and toward the very end of this forecast period,
KSAW. Uncertainty still exists with respect to exact timing and
direct impacts, so have left mention as VC for now. Look for
southerly winds to pick up, with the lake breeze potentially shifting
winds around in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 438 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019
Under a weak pres gradient, winds thru the weekend will mostly be
15kt or less. Strongest winds will probably occur Fri night into Sat
as high pres builds se toward the northern Great Lakes. There may be
some gusts in excess of 20kt during that time.
Areas of fog are still lingering across portions of Lake Superior,
especially the e half. There has also been some expansion of fog
over the w half. Until a cold front passes, this fog will likely
linger, moving around with the prevailing winds. A cold front will
pass across the lake Thu night/Fri, so if fog continues to linger,
it should clear out Fri/Fri night.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Influx of drier air over the mountains and lack of much upper level
forcing has led to a significant decrease in convective activity
over srn CO versus yesterday at this time. Still some pockets of
modest surface instability available, with a few weak cells forming
over the nrn San Luis Valley and along the Palmer Divide at 21z,
while remaining high terrain/Raton Mesa see some areas of moderate
cumulus. For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, kept
mention of isolated tsra in place for the eastern mountains, Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa, where cu looks healthiest and last few runs
of the HRRR highlight for possible convection. Most storms should be
weak and short-lived, with brief gusty outflow winds and lightning
the main threats. Activity ends quickly during the evening with
skies becoming mostly clear by midnight.
Forecast for the Fourth (Thursday) looks hot and mainly dry as upper
level ridge builds slightly across the srn plains and dry w-sw flow
continues across the area. Still tough to go with a completely
convection-free forecast, as models occasionally hint at some weak
tsra over Teller County and along the Palmer Divide very late in the
afternoon, though anything that forms will likely be more of a brief
gusty wind/sprinkle/lightning producer than anything else. Will keep
the low pops in place for Teller/nrn El Paso Counties, but eliminate
them elsewhere as atmosphere looks too dry to support much more the
some flat cumulus. Max temps will continue to climb as heights rise
and low/mid level winds become more w-sw, and a few 100f readings
will likely reappear across the lower Ark. Valley by late
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019
A ridge of high pressure aloft will persist over the southern US
through the extended period. What occurs at the surface, however,
will dictate the realized weather across the forecast area.
Fourth of July night...Save for an isolated storm over the Palmer
Divide or Rampart Range through the early evening, skies should be
mostly clear across the region. Any storms that do develop will
likely create gusty outflow winds, but again should be very isolated
in nature. Look for overnight lows in the 40s to near 50F for the
high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains.
Friday through Sunday...A disturbance rolling across the Northern
Rockies late Thu night will push a cold front south into Colorado
Fri morning. As the front pushes south through the morning and into
the afternoon, frontal passage will tap into the resulting higher
dewpoint and lift to initiate showers and storms along the eastern
mts and eastern plains. The resulting easterly upslope flow at the
surface will continue this through the night and through Sat, with
slightly cooler temps and more widespread convection coverage
expected. Surface winds finally swing around to a more southerly
direction on Sun, easing up on pcpn chances and allowing temps to
warm back up. However, there will still be plenty of moisture to tap
into for convection again Sun aftn and eve. So, for Fri plan on
highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for
the plains with scattered convection along the eastern mts and
plains, and storms likely over the Palmer Divide. On Sat, increased
cloud cover and pcpn chances will keep high temps in the mid 70s to
around 80F for the high valleys, and in the 80s for the plains.
Convection will be likely over the eastern mts and adjacent plains
and scattered elsewhere, and this will be the most probable day for
a flash flood threat for area burn scars. For Sun temps warm into
the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s
for the plains. Convection will be more scattered along the eastern
mts, with isolated activity for the plains.
Monday through Wednesday...Hot temps and diurnal mt convection will
be the likely pattern for the next work week, as moisture trapped
under the upper ridge gets recirculated. Expect highs around 80F for
the high valleys each day, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the
plains. Plan on scattered storms over the higher terrain each aftn
and evening, with isolated convection elsewhere. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very
isolated thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and early
evening over the mountains and Palmer Divide, ending quickly by
sunset. Convection should stay away from all terminals, though
gusty/erratic outflow winds from Palmer Divide convection could
impact KCOS 22z-02z. Even less thunderstorm activity expected on
Thursday, with VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
838 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather stays with us for much of the rest
of the week, with the daily chance for mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 835 PM Wednesday...
Showers and thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley became
numerous enough to generate a gust front, which was moving
southeast through the center of the forecast area this evening.
This may cause convection to fire along and behind it into the
early overnight hours.
As of 200 PM Wednesday...
Latest satellite and radar imagery show convection developing
along low level theta-e gradient across central/northern KY,
with another area of convection in central OH. Expect this to
advect into eastern KY and southern OH later this afternoon, as
the gradient migrates eastward. This should continue to be the
focus for loosely organized convection through the remainder of
the afternoon. Meanwhile, convection in OH should continue to
expand in coverage this afternoon, eventually affecting our
southeast OH counties. I have likely POPs blossoming over
northeast KY/southeast OH/and western WV late afternoon thru
dusk. This is in agreement with the past several runs of the RAP
and the latest HREF. Elsewhere, while I cannot rule out a
an isolated shower or storm, organized convection should remain
across aforementioned areas. The caveat being if any additional
development occurs along outflow boundaries.
All the parameters for heavy rain remain in place with a
respectable warm cloud depth, weak flow through the column, and
corfidi vectors 5 kts or less. Thus, expect efficient slow
moving downpours capable of localized flash flooding into early
evening. The severe threat should be less than yesterday given
the overall decrease in dry air aloft to tap and weak flow.
However, any collapse of a stout core aloft could still be
capable of localized damaging winds due to precip
loading...especially in southeast OH.
Convection will wane by late evening with areas of dense valley fog
developing, especially in areas that receive rain. For Thursday,
models have backed off on POPs a bit. I foresee two areas to
focus for initial development. One being the central/northern
mountains on developing light southeast flow and the other being
across southeast OH and northeast KY which may expand into WV
late afternoon. Heavy rain threat will continue with the
parameters discussed below remaining in place.
Given the rains this morning and the latest FFG, I elected to
expand the Flash Flood Watch a few counties which runs through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday and Saturday
across the area, as a series of shortwaves move through the
area. Storms will continue to be slow movers during the period,
and with high moisture content air, flash flooding will continue
to be a possibility, particularly in areas that receive
repetitive storms. Instability will increase across the area on
Saturday out ahead of an approaching cold front, and although
overall dynamics/shear is weak, with high cape, on the order of
around 3000J/KG, could see a few storms become strong to
severe with downburst/wind damage potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
Cold front will move through the region over the weekend, with
somewhat drier air gradually trying to work its way into the
region to start the next week. There will still be a potential
for diurnally driven showers and storms however during the
period, particularly across the higher terrain counties.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 836 PM Wednesday...
Thunderstorms will slowly diminish overnight, with dense valley
fog developing b early Thursday morning. An upper level
disturbance may keep a shower or thunderstorm around overnight
through Thursday morning, and is likely to cause afternoon
thunderstorms to fire relatively early on Thursday.
Flow will continue to be light southwest surface and aloft,
except gusty in heavy thunderstorms.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms will
vary. Extent of dense fog overnight remains in question.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 07/04/19
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H L M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M M L L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms the
weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ006>008-014.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ066-067-075-
083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM