Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 At 3 PM, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms was located across southeast Minnesota. This cluster was moving northeast and it is expected to continue to move through west-central Wisconsin and potentially through north-central Wisconsin through this evening. With downdraft CAPES between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, there is a potential for some strong, gusty winds in areas where a core collapses. In addition, maybe some hail in the half to 1 inch range. Further to the east and southeast, there are isolated to scattered showers extending from northern Houston County through Madison. With weak convergence, expect not much change in this activity as it moves northeast though Central Wisconsin. Elsewhere, there are scattered showers and storms in western Iowa. This is associated with a MCV. The ESSRL HRRR seems to have a good handle on this activity and it shows that this precipitation will move northeast across northeast Iowa and central and southwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. With very weak shear, not anticipating any organized severe weather. However, would not be too surprised to see some gusty winds from them. On the 4th, a shortwave trough will be moving slowly east through the area. Like today, ML CAPES will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km will remain weak. The CAMs continue to show multiple lines of storms moving through the area. The first line moves through from mid to late morning into the early afternoon. The second line moves through from mid to to late afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms could be potentially strong in either of these lines. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 On Friday afternoon and evening, another shortwave trough will move east through the region. ML CAPES will range from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. The 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear is stronger than this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, but still is not strong enough for organized convection. However, there is still the potential for a couple of pulse storms. The main threat would be gusty winds. It still looks like high pressure will build across the area for the upcoming weekend. This high will provide mainly dry conditions for much of the forecast area. If showers and storms were to develop, they would be located near Interstate 35. For early next week, the front will move back north into the area. This will bring a return of showers and storms to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Dry conditions expected at both TAF sites overnight. With plenty of residual low level moisture from high humidity and recent rainfall, there will once again be fog potential late tonight, but the setup does not look quite as favorable as last night. MVFR visibilities will be possible, with perhaps a dip into IFR for a short time. Main concern on Thursday will be a disturbance pushing through the area in the afternoon, which is expected to pop scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Still some lingering uncertainty with timing and coverage of this convection, so have left thunder out of this TAF issuance and have gone with tempo showers. Locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop, and this activity should diminish towards sunset. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 WV imagery indicates a weak southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is located across southeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 The main focus for this evening is if there will be storms in the FA or not. An increasing cumulus field is seen on visible satellite across the far eastern zones. There will be plenty of CAPE for storm development. Wind shear is non-existent so storms are not expected to be severe. Will carry some pops across the eastern zones this afternoon and evening. The latest HRRR keeps the entire area storm free while other meso models do have isolated storms. The main threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall as PWATs remain over an inch across the greater region. Some marginal wind may be possible as well as there is some DCAPE present. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will remain dry tonight with lows in the 60s and 70s. For tomorrow, a hot one is expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Will keep a dry forecast going as any convection looks to remain well north of the FA. Temperatures around firework time look to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a light SE/S wind of 5 to 15 mph. Overall, tomorrow and tomorrow night looks like your typical Summer day/night across SW Kansas with no serious weather impacts for those outside. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 The extended period will be marked by your typical summer-time Kansas weather. Warm to hot and mainly dry, except for perhaps a storm or two. Speaking of storms, the EC is indicating an MCS moving through Saturday evening into Sunday. THE NBM higher pops and slightly lower temps look on track for now. SW Kansas will be at the tail end of the westerlies, so overall this does make sense. Beyond that, a slightly drier pattern and warm to hot temps are expected to resume. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A small cluster of redeveloping thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of the HYS terminals through at least sunset. If a storms can develop or back build toward the terminal, gusts up to 40 knots could be possible with heavy rain, and small hail. Other than that, there is little chance any of the other terminals will be impacted by convection for the remainder of the evening based on the recent short term model output and recent radar trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 95 70 96 / 10 0 10 10 GCK 66 97 68 96 / 0 0 10 20 EHA 66 97 68 96 / 0 10 10 10 LBL 67 96 68 96 / 0 0 10 10 HYS 68 96 71 96 / 20 10 10 30 P28 72 96 73 98 / 30 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
907 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .UPDATE... After a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, things have settled down this evening. Temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s at most locations, with the radar picking up only a little ground clutter here and there. With the absence of diurnal heating, and weak synoptic scale descent in the wake of a departing shortwave trough (as seen on 500 mb 00Z analysis), not expecting much in the way of precipitation during the overnight. The HRRR does hint at the possibility of a stray shower or two down in Central Texas, but nothing some quiet 10 percent PoPs can`t cover. For Independence Day, look for a day similar to today with highs in the 90s along with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. We are not expecting any storms to result in an all-day washout, but any storms that do manage to develop will certainly be capable of producing brief heavy downpours, occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and gusty winds in excess of 30 mph. The weather should be quiet for most locations, but keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, just in case, and be prepared to move inside if skies threaten and/or thunder is heard, but again, any storms should be fairly brief at a given location. Have a fun and safe Fourth of July! 37 && .AVIATION... /Issued 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns -- Waning evening convection...MVFR Thursday morning...renewed convective chances Thursday afternoon. Regional 88Ds continue to show isolated to widely scattered convection across parts of North and Central TX...with the greatest coverage being found about 50 nm either side of a KLHB- KMNZ line. For this reason...VCTS will continue at KACT for another couple of hours. To the north...lightning activity has been sparse to non-existent with convection in and around the D10 TRACON...thus will cover with VCSH for another couple of hours...but would not be entirely surprised if we saw a lightning strike or two before all is said and done. After the convection dissipates this evening...model guidance is in strong agreement that the forecast area will receive a poleward surge of low-level moisture...likely dropping cigs to MVFR a little before daybreak. MVFR will persist through mid-morning before giving way to VFR in the afternoon once again. Speaking of the afternoon...renewed diurnally-driven convection can be expected once again with coverage expected to be isolated to widely scattered...thus VCTS will be carried at all TAF sites during the late afternoon hours. Any TS that do manage to impact area terminals will be capable of brief +RA...occasional CG...and gusty and erratic winds of 20-30 KT. 37 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ /Through Tonight/ Persistent morning clouds kept temperatures in check today, with afternoon highs remaining a few degrees shy of normal. With a weak upper trough parked overhead, diurnal shower and storm activity has been percolating since noon, and will continue into the early evening hours. The greatest coverage will be east of I-35 and south of I-30, but an isolated shower or storm could creep farther northwestward into the DFW area as well. While severe storms generally aren`t expected, lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain can be expected with more robust cells. Those with Independence Day-related outdoor activities should keep an eye on the radar through the evening. Even if storms do not directly impact a given location, thunderstorm outflow and associated wind shifts may also be of concern. Activity is expected to dissipate by 8 or 9pm as heating wanes. Overnight, a lull in rain chances can be expected with temperatures falling into the low 80s by 10pm and upper 70s around midnight. Another round of low stratus will invade much of the forecast area after midnight and persist into Thursday morning. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ /Independence Day through next Wednesday/ In true summer style, mid-level ridging will assert itself across the Central CONUS through the course of this forecast period, delivering daytime temperatures that will steadily approach the century mark across North and Central Texas by early next week. The mid-level trough which has lingered over North Texas through midweek will remain organized on Thursday, providing one more elevated opportunity for diurnal convection. With the axis oriented more or less from Sherman to Lampasas, we`ll maintain chance PoPs for the afternoon hours Thursday, primarily east of the I-35 corridor. Most of these cells should dissipate prior to sunset, but isolated activity **may** linger long enough to temporarily impact any fireworks shows or other evening activities across the region. By Friday, the upper trough will have largely dissipated, replaced by upper ridging that will continue to intensify through early next week. The obvious net effect will be an absence of PoPs, more sunshine, and increasing daytime temps from the weekend into next week. Have maintained very low PoPs Saturday and Sunday across the Red River counties, for the remote possibility of convective complexes dropping southward out of Oklahoma. Otherwise, daytime temps will be rising into the upper 90s by Monday/Tuesday, with some spots reaching the century mark in our western zones by early next week. Some model discrepancies do emerge by the middle of next week, with the Euro, GFS and Canadian depicting the upper ridge sliding either west or north away from our region. Depending on the orientation of the upper flow, we may see a slight increase in PoPs from mid week onward to next weekend, as well as some minor relief in daytime temperatures. Didn`t add any PoPs for next Wednesday, but did depict a slight decrease in highs for that day, owing to the retrograding ridge. Bradshaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 76 95 76 / 20 20 5 10 10 Waco 75 92 74 94 73 / 20 20 5 5 5 Paris 72 87 73 90 74 / 20 30 10 10 10 Denton 76 91 75 95 76 / 10 20 5 10 10 McKinney 75 90 75 94 76 / 20 20 10 10 10 Dallas 76 92 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10 Terrell 75 91 74 94 74 / 20 30 10 10 5 Corsicana 74 91 73 91 72 / 20 30 5 5 5 Temple 74 92 73 94 73 / 20 20 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 74 92 73 95 74 / 10 20 5 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 37/30
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
931 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has decreased since earlier this evening with loss of daytime heating. Expect this trend to continue into the overnight hours. Will continue with chance PoPS for additional showers and thunderstorms over northeast and central MO into west central IL late tonight with the approach of the remnant MCV collocated where the RAP is showing increased low level moisture convergence. The most recent runs of the CAMS reflectivity continue to show development in these areas. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Thunderstorm activity, like the past couple of days, should weaken and eventually dissipate by late this evening due to the loss of daytime instability. The remnant MCV currently near the MO/KS border will continue to heat slowly to the east/northeast and this feature may have to be watched for possible additional activity overnight tonight. CAMs keep it fairly quiet associated with this feature overnight, but yet another MCV is expected to develop associated with overnight convection in eastern Kansas. This feature will propagate eastward through the day on Thursday, and could help provide a bit more focus for storms just downstream of it tomorrow across the northwestern half of the CWA. Given that this feature does not exist yet, the confidence in this scenario is not particularly high. Regardless, additional scattered storms are likely areawide due to moderate instability in an uncapped atmosphere. These storms, like today and the previous couple of days, should weaken and eventually dissipate during the evening hours on Thursday. This should provide a window of dry weather for 4th of July festivities. Little to no change in expected temperatures through the short-term forecast period. Persistence remains a very good forecast, with lows tonight and Thursday night mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and highs for the 4th in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Humidity will also remain high, so look for maximum heat index values to be in the mid to upper 90s during the afternoon. All in all, a very typical 4th of July is forecast for the bi-state area with seasonably hot/humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Summertime weather pattern will remain in place heading into early this weekend with seasonably hot/humid conditions and a chance of thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. The mid/upper level ridge begins to breakdown late this weekend allowing a slow-moving cold front to move through the CWA. This frontal passage will provide another chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday night through early Sunday. A brief period drier and slightly cooler weather is likely to conclude the upcoming holiday week heading into possibly early next week. Flow aloft becomes more zonal however thereafter so expect temperatures to moderate back to near or just above normal along with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east of the terminals and are expected to dissipate in the next few hours. Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected late this evening into the overnight hours. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area by late morning into Thursday afternoon. Will continue with VCSH at all the terminals with low VFR ceilings, though MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with the heavier storms. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Expect showers and thunderstorms to move away from the terminal by 01Z. Then mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through at least late morning before additional scattered showers and thunderstorms move into eastern Missouri. Will continue with VCSH with low VFR ceilings, though MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with the heavier storms. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details
on Independence Day weather and expected weekend conditions...and
beyond. Keene && .AVIATION...For the 04/00Z TAFS...VFR will continue through the evening. There is a chance for thunderstorms form the Cascades east, and any heavier showers could result in periods of localized MVFR and areas of terrain obscuration. Patchy MVFR/IFR will redevelop tonight along the coast and the Umpqua Valley, with clearing expected by late morning or early afternoon. All other areas should remain VFR through the TAF period. -BPN && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, 3 July 2019... A relatively weak thermal trough pattern will persist into the weekend. North winds and seas will increase a bit more each afternoon and evening in areas south of Cape Blanco, where small craft advisory conditions will persist. Winds may weaken a bit Saturday. -BTL/BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ DISCUSSION...The 2:00 PM water vapor satellites are continuing to show dry air in the low levels largely west of the Cascades with some deeper moisture in some clouds positioned over eastern Klamath and western Lake Counties. Meanwhile, moisture levels in the mid to upper atmosphere are showing a bit more water vapor. This is in part of a larger trough, or low pressure system moving through the Pacific Northwest with a shortwave disturbance moving through the area from the north and west. This is showing some more widespread cumulus clouds across the east side as well as along the terrain of the Umpqua Divide, Siskiyous and the Cascades. This shortwave will be the cause of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Cascades and for areas of Modoc County. The day cloud phase is beginning to show some glaciation (or liquid cloud drops turning to ice) east of the Cascades. So far, these ice and water clouds have no amounted to anything, but this will change soon, and we could expect thunderstorms to start in the next hour or two. Thunderstorms will generally end this evening as soon as the sun sets and cuts off energy for instability, and tonight should be mainly be cloud free, with the exception of areas at the coast where the marine stratus deck could push inland. For tomorrow, things start to dry out and warm up across southern Oregon and northern California. The July 4th holiday should be rain and mainly cloud free for any afternoon and evening revelry. Of course the marine layer could bring in some stratus at the coast, but am being optimistic that the deck will wait until after any holiday displays before returning. This warming and drying period will continue through Saturday with things returning to normal or slightly above normal. Then on Sunday, another short-wave is expected to come through. It`s unsure whether or not we`ll have enough moisture on Sunday to promote thunderstorms east of the Cascades and in Modoc County, and ensemble guidance is not showing a whole lot, so did raise the rain chances for a silent 10% chance in these areas on Sunday. For Monday, another short-wave will come through and chances are that moisture will be abundant enough for Thunderstorms to occur, especially if you believe the ECMWF and Canadian models. Have gone with the ensemble forecast and blended toward slightly higher rain chances to put in an actual mention of thunderstorms for areas east of the Cascades and Modoc County in northern California. After that, things start to become even more murky as the models are debating whether or not the troughing pattern continues or if we have a start to another significant warming and drying trend-- coincident with the Jackson County Fair. For now, am going with the ensemble guidance which is showing the ridge (indicative of hot and dry), but confidence is low, and will have to continue to evaluate as the models struggle in the extended. -Schaaf FIRE WEATHER...2:30 PM PDT Wednesday, July 3, 2019...Radar shows isolated cells developing this afternoon east of the Cascades and latest HRRR supports only isolated activity over the next several hours as short wave drops south. Warmer/drier weather expected on the 4th and into Friday. Breezier and a bit cooler under digging upper trough this weekend. Some slim chance on Sun aftn/eve for thunder across the east, but not yet to mentionable probability. Continued shortwave activity likely Monday in base of upper trough and have sided with the NBM pops here so more thunder in the forecast. Fair spread in model solutions thereafter Tues- Thurs, but latest ensemble means are pointing toward a cooler Tuesday than previously thought. Fair uncertainty remains into Wed- Thu. Stavish && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 438 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep mid-level low over northern Manitoba. To its s, lower amplitude flow across the northern CONUS features a trof over the nw CONUS and then broad ridging extending e across the Great Lakes region. In the resulting wsw flow into the northern Great Lakes, a shortwave has moved from the eastern Dakotas this morning to ne MN. Some shra/tsra are accompanying this wave just nw of Lake Superior. Closer to home, it`s been a mostly sunny, very warm day. Temps have risen well into the 80s to near 90F in the interior. Generally where temps are warmest, deep mixing has resulted in dwpts falling back into the 50s to make conditions not too uncomfortable. Dwpt has even fallen to 47F at KLNL. Where temps are lower, dwpts are higher in the low to mid 60s (even upper 60s near Lake MI), making for a more uncomfortable aftn. Lake breezes are the rule across the board, so lakeside conditions are coolest. Fog persists on the Great Lakes. Fog was especially widespread on Lake MI, but it has surprisingly diminished rapidly this aftn. Fog on Lake Superior is mainly over the e half, but it has shown some expansion on the w half. This fog will likely hang around until a cold fropa occurs. Tonight, a shortwave is fcst to eject from the western trof and lift out across the Dakotas during the night and into MN Thu morning. With little response to the low-level jet ahead of this feature and no waa into the northern Great Lakes, any shra/tsra activity that might develop toward Upper MI will be very limited. Theta-e ridging does build into far western Upper MI toward 12z, and that might support some shra toward/after sunrise. Also of note is the cluster of tsra over se MN. If this convection is tied to a subtle shortwave, then some shra/tsra may arrive overnight, earlier than currently expected. Trends on this convection will need to monitored thru the evening. Otherwise, expect a mild night tonight with min temps in the mid 50s to mid, even upper, 60s, coolest in the interior. Could be some patchy fog over the s central and near Lake MI overnight. Unfortunately, for Independence Day, the approaching shortwave is likely lead to sct shra/tsra over the w half of Upper MI, mainly in the aftn. The e half will remain dry. MLCAPE is generally fcst to reach 1500 to perhaps 2000j/kg. With deep layer shear of 25 to near 30kt, will likely see a few stronger storms with the potential of gusty winds/small hail. In addition, with precipitable water up to 1.75 inches, 200+pct of normal, torrential rainfall will accompany some of the storms. Provided there isn`t too much cloud cover, high temps will again be well into the 80s to near 90F. The w should be cooler than today with more clouds and sct shra/tsra. Compared to today, lake breeze cooling near Lake Superior will be much more limited on Thu due to an increase in southerly gradient winds. For most locations, dwpts will edge up a little from today, so it will feel more uncomfortable for outdoor activities. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019 Quasi-zonal flow and subtle shortwaves tracking east across the Upper Great Lakes will bring chance for showers and thunderstorms to close out the work week. Then, high pressure moving from Canada will bring a welcome break from the heat and humidity this weekend. Early to mid next week, the upper-air pattern becomes a bit more amplified across the heart of the country, bringing back warm and humid conditions, along with precipitation chances. Thursday night, the main concern is showers and thunderstorms pushing west to east across the Upper Peninsula. With the shortwave tracking east across the area being rather subtle aloft and a rather weak cold front, the models are struggling a bit with the timing or better chance for thunderstorm activity. Right now, the best chances appear to be across the west and portions of central Upper Michigan between 8pm and 11pm EDT. While we will lose diurnal heating as we progress through the evening hours, there does appear to be enough surface based instability transitioning to elevated instability, between 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, for thunderstorms to work with. However, deep layer shear doesn`t look terribly impressive so thinking that thunderstorm activity will be more pulse-type, making them even more difficult to forecast a place/time as there could be multiple boundaries floating around for initiation. If a stronger storm can maintain an organized updraft, small hail and strong, gusty downdraft winds will be possible, along with locally heavy rain. As we progress through the overnight and early morning hours on Friday, any lingering showers/storms should weaken and/or dissipate. Another weather concern to keep an eye on is the marine layer/fog. With continued humid conditions and additional precipitation possible over the lake, once winds switch around to the west-northwest behind the front, models are picking up on the marine layer pushing inland along the shoreline of Lake Superior. A few of the high-res models are depicting upslope lift allowing the depth of the marine layer to grow deep enough for mist/drizzle to develop over the west, and especially the Keweenaw. Friday, towards daybreak the front will continue to exit the area switching wind around to the west-northwest. This will push the marine layer in on the Lake Superior shoreline, primarily east of Marquette. Another shortwave is expected to lift across the region, bringing with it renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily across the south central late in the day. Deep layer shear is a bit more impressive Friday afternoon, so it will depend on how far north the instability axis can build during the afternoon as to whether or not we see any strong storms across the south central. Elsewhere, locations near the Lake Superior shoreline will likely continue to deal with marine layer/fog issues until we start to get some significantly drier air into the region Friday night/Saturday morning. The upcoming weekend is shaping up to be a beautiful one, with less humidity, more-seasonable temperatures and dry weather! Unfortunately, this trend will be short-lived as the upper-air pattern becomes more amplified across the heart of the country early/mid next week. This amplified pattern will bring back the warmth and humidity, along with increased chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 736 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the overnight period, with light winds. As a disturbance approaches the Upper Great Lakes tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase across Upper Michigan from west to east, leaving KIWD the first terminal to perhaps see some storms in its vicinity, followed by KCMX, and toward the very end of this forecast period, KSAW. Uncertainty still exists with respect to exact timing and direct impacts, so have left mention as VC for now. Look for southerly winds to pick up, with the lake breeze potentially shifting winds around in the afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 438 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2019 Under a weak pres gradient, winds thru the weekend will mostly be 15kt or less. Strongest winds will probably occur Fri night into Sat as high pres builds se toward the northern Great Lakes. There may be some gusts in excess of 20kt during that time. Areas of fog are still lingering across portions of Lake Superior, especially the e half. There has also been some expansion of fog over the w half. Until a cold front passes, this fog will likely linger, moving around with the prevailing winds. A cold front will pass across the lake Thu night/Fri, so if fog continues to linger, it should clear out Fri/Fri night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...lg MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Influx of drier air over the mountains and lack of much upper level forcing has led to a significant decrease in convective activity over srn CO versus yesterday at this time. Still some pockets of modest surface instability available, with a few weak cells forming over the nrn San Luis Valley and along the Palmer Divide at 21z, while remaining high terrain/Raton Mesa see some areas of moderate cumulus. For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, kept mention of isolated tsra in place for the eastern mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, where cu looks healthiest and last few runs of the HRRR highlight for possible convection. Most storms should be weak and short-lived, with brief gusty outflow winds and lightning the main threats. Activity ends quickly during the evening with skies becoming mostly clear by midnight. Forecast for the Fourth (Thursday) looks hot and mainly dry as upper level ridge builds slightly across the srn plains and dry w-sw flow continues across the area. Still tough to go with a completely convection-free forecast, as models occasionally hint at some weak tsra over Teller County and along the Palmer Divide very late in the afternoon, though anything that forms will likely be more of a brief gusty wind/sprinkle/lightning producer than anything else. Will keep the low pops in place for Teller/nrn El Paso Counties, but eliminate them elsewhere as atmosphere looks too dry to support much more the some flat cumulus. Max temps will continue to climb as heights rise and low/mid level winds become more w-sw, and a few 100f readings will likely reappear across the lower Ark. Valley by late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A ridge of high pressure aloft will persist over the southern US through the extended period. What occurs at the surface, however, will dictate the realized weather across the forecast area. Fourth of July night...Save for an isolated storm over the Palmer Divide or Rampart Range through the early evening, skies should be mostly clear across the region. Any storms that do develop will likely create gusty outflow winds, but again should be very isolated in nature. Look for overnight lows in the 40s to near 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Friday through Sunday...A disturbance rolling across the Northern Rockies late Thu night will push a cold front south into Colorado Fri morning. As the front pushes south through the morning and into the afternoon, frontal passage will tap into the resulting higher dewpoint and lift to initiate showers and storms along the eastern mts and eastern plains. The resulting easterly upslope flow at the surface will continue this through the night and through Sat, with slightly cooler temps and more widespread convection coverage expected. Surface winds finally swing around to a more southerly direction on Sun, easing up on pcpn chances and allowing temps to warm back up. However, there will still be plenty of moisture to tap into for convection again Sun aftn and eve. So, for Fri plan on highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains with scattered convection along the eastern mts and plains, and storms likely over the Palmer Divide. On Sat, increased cloud cover and pcpn chances will keep high temps in the mid 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and in the 80s for the plains. Convection will be likely over the eastern mts and adjacent plains and scattered elsewhere, and this will be the most probable day for a flash flood threat for area burn scars. For Sun temps warm into the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Convection will be more scattered along the eastern mts, with isolated activity for the plains. Monday through Wednesday...Hot temps and diurnal mt convection will be the likely pattern for the next work week, as moisture trapped under the upper ridge gets recirculated. Expect highs around 80F for the high valleys each day, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains. Plan on scattered storms over the higher terrain each aftn and evening, with isolated convection elsewhere. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very isolated thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and early evening over the mountains and Palmer Divide, ending quickly by sunset. Convection should stay away from all terminals, though gusty/erratic outflow winds from Palmer Divide convection could impact KCOS 22z-02z. Even less thunderstorm activity expected on Thursday, with VFR conditions continuing. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...PETERSEN
National Weather Service Charleston WV
838 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid weather stays with us for much of the rest of the week, with the daily chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 835 PM Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley became numerous enough to generate a gust front, which was moving southeast through the center of the forecast area this evening. This may cause convection to fire along and behind it into the early overnight hours. As of 200 PM Wednesday... Latest satellite and radar imagery show convection developing along low level theta-e gradient across central/northern KY, with another area of convection in central OH. Expect this to advect into eastern KY and southern OH later this afternoon, as the gradient migrates eastward. This should continue to be the focus for loosely organized convection through the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, convection in OH should continue to expand in coverage this afternoon, eventually affecting our southeast OH counties. I have likely POPs blossoming over northeast KY/southeast OH/and western WV late afternoon thru dusk. This is in agreement with the past several runs of the RAP and the latest HREF. Elsewhere, while I cannot rule out a an isolated shower or storm, organized convection should remain across aforementioned areas. The caveat being if any additional development occurs along outflow boundaries. All the parameters for heavy rain remain in place with a respectable warm cloud depth, weak flow through the column, and corfidi vectors 5 kts or less. Thus, expect efficient slow moving downpours capable of localized flash flooding into early evening. The severe threat should be less than yesterday given the overall decrease in dry air aloft to tap and weak flow. However, any collapse of a stout core aloft could still be capable of localized damaging winds due to precip loading...especially in southeast OH. Convection will wane by late evening with areas of dense valley fog developing, especially in areas that receive rain. For Thursday, models have backed off on POPs a bit. I foresee two areas to focus for initial development. One being the central/northern mountains on developing light southeast flow and the other being across southeast OH and northeast KY which may expand into WV late afternoon. Heavy rain threat will continue with the parameters discussed below remaining in place. Given the rains this morning and the latest FFG, I elected to expand the Flash Flood Watch a few counties which runs through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday and Saturday across the area, as a series of shortwaves move through the area. Storms will continue to be slow movers during the period, and with high moisture content air, flash flooding will continue to be a possibility, particularly in areas that receive repetitive storms. Instability will increase across the area on Saturday out ahead of an approaching cold front, and although overall dynamics/shear is weak, with high cape, on the order of around 3000J/KG, could see a few storms become strong to severe with downburst/wind damage potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Cold front will move through the region over the weekend, with somewhat drier air gradually trying to work its way into the region to start the next week. There will still be a potential for diurnally driven showers and storms however during the period, particularly across the higher terrain counties. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 836 PM Wednesday... Thunderstorms will slowly diminish overnight, with dense valley fog developing b early Thursday morning. An upper level disturbance may keep a shower or thunderstorm around overnight through Thursday morning, and is likely to cause afternoon thunderstorms to fire relatively early on Thursday. Flow will continue to be light southwest surface and aloft, except gusty in heavy thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms will vary. Extent of dense fog overnight remains in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/04/19 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H L M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M M L L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ006>008-014. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ066-067-075- 083>087. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM