Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/02/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Convection that initiated near ESC late this afternoon did
eventually grow upscale, crossing portions of far n central and ne
lower MI. The associated MCV also helped kick off cellular
activity ahead of the primary cluster. These have occasionally
had healthy rainfall rates, but all of this convection has been
quite squatty. There were a few ltg strikes near and east of ISQ
way back around mid-afternoon, but otherwise there has been no
lightning/thunder at all. SPC has mercifully pulled the plug on
the marginal svr threat. Ongoing activity in ne lower MI will
gradually diminish in intensity/coverage as instability wanes,
even as it exits as the forcing MCV moves off to the east.
Some showers are also poking into the MBL area, the leading
edge of a lengthy area of convection that extends back to the
MN/IA border. This is north of a surface warm front over northern
IA and the WI/IL border. Models not handling this particularly
well at all. Will be boosting pops in southern third of the
forecast area for the rest of the night, in some cases
substantially (especially along our southern border). Activity
will still tend to turn to the right as it crosses eastern WI and
Lake MI, due to mean 850-300mb winds. Will still mention a small
chance for thunder.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
...Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight...
High Impact Weather Potential: Marginal risk for strong storms
tonight.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon surface analysis shows low
pressure over James Bay with attending front arcing through
eastern Ontario and back through the U.P. and across central
Minnesota. Low-mid level moisture/instability plume spans much of
the Midwest and eastward into Michigan with surface dewpoints
spanning the middle 60s to near 70...pretty good for these parts.
18Z SPC mesoanalysis page shows MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/KG
in eastern upper and northern Lower Michigan. But the best
instability still resides back across Iowa and south.
Thus far, there are a few thunderstorms that have popped in
central-eastern upper Michigan in the last hour or so ahead of the
front...and about to slip into eastern upper Michigan soon.
Nothing south of the bridge so far other than a decent build up of
CU across NE Lower Michigan earlier.
Convective evolution remains the biggest forecast challenge.
Most recent high resolution guidance runs have suggested an
organizing cluster of showers/storms developing in the U.P. and
riding down into northern Lower Michigan as we get into the
evening. It appears we have the beginnings of that. But whether or
not storms will continue to develop upscale and then survive
coming across the lake is another matter. Most recent HRRR runs
say no. For now I`ll stick with the idea that some showers/storms
will eventually drop down into northern Lower Michigan as we get
into the evening hours. Meanwhile, additional shower/storm
development is likely back through Wisconsin later this evening
and may spread into northern Lower Michigan toward Tuesday
morning. Lots of uncertainty remains of course and we will just
have to see how it goes.
Severe threat: 40 to 50 knots of westerly mid level flow and
effective bulk shear values in excess of 35 knots suggest at least
a marginal threat for storm organization/severe weather threat
through mid evening before instability winds down. SPC Day One
outlook was updated a few hours back to put most of the forecast
area into a marginal risk...which seems reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
...Warm and muggy with showers/storms possible Tuesday...
High Impact Weather Potential...Generally low.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Potential for strong storms Tuesday.
A nearly stationary front is expected to reside in the north central
lower Michigan area Tuesday. Warm and muggy air along and south of
this boundary in combination with daytime heating may spark a few
showers and thunderstorms...though better instability will likely
remain to the south of the forecast area. There is a large gradient
of precipitable water values across the forecast area with a range
from about 0.75 inches across eastern upper to near 1.75 inches
across far southern counties. Not a lot of wind aloft with 0-6 Km
bulk shear only 20 to 30 knots, even still can not rule out a couple
of strong storms south. Highs generally in the lower and middle 80s.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night...Drier air settles in from the
north and combines with increasing upper level ridging to lead to
mainly precipitation free conditions. Remaining warm Wednesday with
highs in the middle and upper 80s but at least with less humidity.
Lows at night in the cooler upper 50s and lower 60s.
Thursday...Very warm and increasingly humid once again as
precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches. A
possible short wave moving through the upper level ridge may spark a
few showers and thunderstorms. There is potential to get pretty
toasty with 850 mb temperatures in the +18 or +19 C range. However,
uncertainty over cloud cover may inhibit full mixing. Will have
highs in the middle and upper 80s but wouldn`t be too surprised if
some spots hit 90 or slightly higher.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
...Turning cooler and less humid...
High Impact Weather Potential...Low.
Perhaps some lingering heat and humidity along with possible showers
and storms Friday. Otherwise, a drying and cooling trend is expected
overall in the long term. Highs in the lower and middle 80s Friday
will be generally replaced with highs in the middle 70s to around 80
Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
MVFR at times tonight/Tuesday morning.
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in parts of the
northern Great Lakes, in the vicinity of an incoming weak cold
front. One cluster is departing the ne lower MI/APN area.Another
showers, and perhaps a few t-storms, are inbound into nw lower MI,
including TVC and MBL. Occasional cig/vsby restrictions are
expected with those overnight. Otherwise, a marine layer from the
nearby chilly Great Lakes will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys at times
tonight and Tue morning.
Light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Overall lighter winds/waves anticipated through Wednesday with no
marine headlines expected. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will
impact the region tonight through Tuesday and may bring brief
locally higher winds and waves.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1055 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
At 2 PM, temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to mid 80s under
mostly cloudy skies. 100 mb mixed layer CAPES were in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and
southwest Wisconsin. The RAP along with other CAMs are in agreement
that these CAPES will climb into the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg range later
this afternoon and remain in the range through the early evening.
This instability will be growing ahead of a MCV moving east out of
southwest Minnesota. There will be sufficient support during the mid
to late afternoon for supercell thunderstorms and then as a 700 mb
speed moves east of the area. This convection will transition to
training and multi linear storm mode. Severe weather will be
possible from 4 PM to 10 PM. The main threat will damaging winds and
very heavy rain. In addition, there will be the potential for large
hail and isolated tornadoes, but these threats would be mainly early
in the event.
For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase along and
near the Interstate 90 and 94 corridors. With precipitable water
values between 2 and 2.25 inches and warm cloud depths of 4 to 4.5
km, these showers and storms will be highly efficient rain
producers. Rainfall rates could be in the excess of 2 inches per
hour. With soils already saturated, runoff will quickly run off
into area rivers and streams causing rapid rises and potential
flooding. In addition, there could be flash flooding in urban
areas and other flood prone areas. In bluff country, there will be
the possibility of mud and rock slides. Due to this, a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued.
On Tuesday, the front will be located across northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin. With ML CAPES of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg and weak
convergence along the front, there will be a redevelopment of
showers and storms. With weak shear, any severe weather will be
isolated and short-lived, so the marginal SPC risk looks good.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
It looks like the broken record forecast will continue through at
least the end of the work week. The 01.12Z models continue to show
the general zonal flow remaining in place across the Upper Midwest
with several short wave troughs coming out the western conus
troughing. The next of these waves looks to be timed up to come
across Wednesday afternoon and evening. With little overall change
expected to occur before this wave arrives, there should be ample
ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg in place ahead of it. The shear
available with this wave looks to be rather limited, as would be
expected in a zonal pattern, with maybe 25 to 30 knots in the 0-3
km layer. This would suggest at least some potential for some
strong to possibly severe storms again. However, the bigger
concern will continue to be with heavy rain and possible
flooding/flash flooding. The low level moisture transport should
increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching short wave
trough and looks to be focused right into the area. Precipitable
water values will still be on the order of 2 inches or higher with
warm cloud depths of 3.5 to 4.5 km. With this setup, there will
likely be the need for additional flash flood watches.
The zonal pattern looks to hold tight after the passage of the
Wednesday system with pretty good consensus that yet another short
wave trough could move over the area Thursday. Some differences
then between the models whether the next wave would come in Friday
or Friday night into Saturday. The surface boundary still looks to
be hanging out across the region and will likely serve as the
focus for additional convection as these waves move across the
region.
After these waves go by the area, there may finally be a pattern
change. The upper level ridge looks to build back north and over
the Upper Midwest for the last part of the weekend into the start
of next week. This may allow a cold front to push across the
region and bring in some cooler and drier air.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Scattered showers will linger overnight with a few thunderstorms
also possible. Most of this activity will depart from the vicinity
of the TAF sites by daybreak. Plenty of residual low level
moisture may promote some BR development at LSE towards daybreak,
but of more concern will be the likelihood of MVFR to perhaps IFR
ceilings developing around/after daybreak, perhaps lingering into
midday at both TAF sites. Do expect ceilings will begin to lift by
afternoon as daytime mixing initiates, and there are signs the
cloud deck should also scatter out. Tuesday is shaping up to be a
drier day overall, and light winds will gradually veer northerly
through the period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
636 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Through Tuesday.
Scattered showers have developed this afternoon generally along
the Interstate 20 corridor just south of the previously mentioned
mesoscale boundary identified this morning. So far, it`s been
tough to get enough sustained updrafts for more organized
convection to develop. RAP analysis is currently indicating SB
CAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/KG. Even though there`s plenty of
fuel it appears the warmer 500mb temps and increased upper
heights are having the biggest impact on convective development.
Still, we`re not going to rule out a stronger storm or two this
afternoon that will be capable of producing gusty winds up to
40mph.
Similar to yesterday, storms will quickly diminish with the loss
of daytime heating giving way to muggy overnight conditions. The
upper ridge will continue to slowly move westward over the Gulf of
Mexico through the day on Tuesday. Low-level thicknesses will be
on the increase by Tuesday afternoon that should support at least
mid 90s for highs. I wouldn`t be surprised if a few upper 90s
were observed across our far southern counties. In terms of the
heat index, tomorrow will be the first of several days this week
in which we could hit 105 in a few spots, and we`ll continue to
highlight the low confidence mention of heat in the HWO. With
heights increasing further tomorrow, we can expect convection to
be even more isolated than what we`re observing today.
56/GDG
.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 330 AM CT/
Tuesday through Monday.
Ridging remains in place across the Southeastern CONUS Tuesday as
the upper level low gradually dissipates. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the weekend
as the high pressure remains overhead. Anomalously high moisture
in the lower levels will cause heat indices to trend upward
Wednesday through Saturday with triple digits likely. I`ll
continue mentioning heat impacts in the hazardous weather outlook,
but confidence remains low because of the uncertainty in when and
where convection will occur in the afternoons, which could limit
the daytime heating.
A shortwave trough slides through the Upper Plains and into the
Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday, which will flatten the
ridge across the Southeast. This could lead to a slight increase
in afternoon showers and storms Sunday into Monday as we see
relative height falls, though I won`t go much higher than 40% this
far in advance. Temperatures do trend downward slightly, but
still expect heat indices to be in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees for much of the area.
25/Owen
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions will prevail most of the period. Convection had a
hard time developing today to any vertical depth, with most
thunder southwest of all terminals. There were a few showers
around and added VCSH shower for a few hours this evening. Then,
the skies will become mostly clear overnight with light and
variable winds. On Tuesday, thunderstorms will have a hard time
developing in any number, therefore, have left out of the forecast
at this time. There will be some, but chances are too low at any
terminal. Surface high pressure remain centered just south and
west of the area. This produces winds west to west northwest
around 6-8kts by afternoon.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm weather continues today through much of this week. Min RHs
remain in the 40-50% range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will develop by early afternoon and will persist into the evening
each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected
through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 70 93 72 93 71 / 20 20 10 30 10
Anniston 71 93 73 93 73 / 20 10 10 20 10
Birmingham 73 95 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 30 10
Tuscaloosa 73 96 75 95 75 / 20 10 10 30 10
Calera 72 95 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 30 10
Auburn 74 94 74 93 75 / 20 10 10 20 10
Montgomery 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 30 20
Troy 73 96 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 20 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Convection popping over se Wy currently but not really organizing
much as shear is pretty low and only modest instabilities. Could
see a few stronger storms at times into this evening, likely
brief, with strong wind gusts the main threat. HRRR pretty much
keep activity over se Wy with little over the Panhandle. Tuesday
pretty much more of the same as the CWA remains under a generally
WSW upper flow with weak impulses riding across, with sctd showers
and tstms once again in the aftn and evening, a few potentially
strong. Activity waning in the evening.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Fairly stagnant weather pattern over the region through the period
with upper troughing over the Pacific northwest and upper ridging
over the southern plains keeping a generally swly upper flow over
the area. Weak impulses will pass by from time to time keeping
sctd mainly aftn and evening showers/tstms through the period.
Temperatures remaining around seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 456 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Thunderstorms early this evening impacting airfields along and
south of a line from Wheatland to Torrington to Scottsbluff. Looks
like storms die off after 03Z or so. Could see low stratus
returning to KCDR and KAIA...given forecast wind directions
though...not quite confident enough to add. Will continue
monitoring for the 06Z TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Concerns expected to stay low with little change expected in the
weather over the area this week. Temperatures will be seasonal
with scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day,
mostly in the afternoons and evenings.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Additional rainfall and snowmelt over the next several days could
bring levels back to action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to
stay to the east of the mountain ranges.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
731 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update...
Did an update to cancel WW 474 and add in WW 476, and adjusted
POPs to try to match the radar and a blend of the high- res models
(mostly HRRR & RAP13), which looked something like the radar
initially.
Once the current activity moves out, the overnight hours should be
quiet. A few showers could fire up again tomorrow south of the MO
River, with some thunder southeast (Prairie, Wibaux, and southern
Dawson Counties) late tomorrow afternoon and evening, where SPC
has a marginal and slight risk outlooked.
Avery
Previous discussion...
Quiet weather conditions prevailed across Northeast Montana late
this morning and early this afternoon. No shower activity was
observed over our forecast area. Dew point temperatures were
mainly in the upper 50s with some spot observing dew points in the
low 60s.
Latest sounding data revealed precipitable water running a little
high for this time of the year, but forecast sounding indicating
PWAT values could reach over an inch late this afternoon.
Favorable upper level dynamics, and low level moisture will
combined with daytime heating to aid in the development of strong
to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening.
Most of the activity will begin to form across southwestern
Petroleum County and it will move east northeast across Valley
and Garfield Counties. Latest model guidance indicated scattered
thunderstorms will form across Petroleum and Phillips Counties
merging together forming a line of strong/severe thunderstorms
with severe wind threat spreading across Valley and Garfield
Counties later this afternoon/this evening. Most of the
aforementioned activity will exit the region by around 10 pm MDT.
For the rest of the work week, and unsettled weather is forecast
to affect the region, as a series of low pressure areas moves
across the region. FGC
&&
.AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across KGGW and KOLF
between 02/00z and 02/02z with TSRA possible. Conditions will
improve to VFR conditions by around 02/04z. VFR conditions
expected across KSDY and KGDV but an isolated thunderstorms cant
be ruled out. Low level winds will be mainly west at 10 kts or
less.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
827 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
A couple MCSs have organized over southern MN and NW IA late this
evening along approximate W-E quasistationary frontal boundary.
Latest satellite and radar trends indicate that the most robust
convection with the lead system is now working east across the ARX
area. This activity should continue to move east/southeast across
southern third of the state overnight along the instability
gradient, thus the threat for severe weather in the GRB forecast
area appears rather minimal for the remainder of the night. It
appears the southern portion of the forecast area will primarily
be impacted by the more stable stratiform precipitation shield of
the lead MCS. It appears Wood, Portage and Waupaca counties stand
to see the most rainfall from this MCS overnight with the activity
becoming more scattered in nature north of highway 29. An
additional 0.50 to perhaps an 1.00 inch of rain is possible in the
aforementioned counties overnight which should have minimal
impacts given latest 6 hour FF guidance is closer to 2-2.5 inches
in these counties.
Only some minor cosmetic changes will be made to current forecast
for the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure centered over southeast South Dakota, and an associated
warm front extending east across southern Minnesota and southern
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front is draped
across northwest Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. Compared to
the past few days, the radar is relatively quiet. Scattered
showers are moving across the southern half of Minnesota and
across northwest Wisconsin. Due to widespread mid and upper
clouds, instability has been slow to build south of the cold
front, with greater than 600 j/kg of surface based cape, and no
mixed layer cape analyzed. The latest short range models continue
to indicate that storms are possible this afternoon along the cold
front and will keep the highest rain chances across northern WI
until 00z. A few strong to near severe storms will be possible,
capable of producing strong gusty winds. However, the main
forecast concern revolves the potential of strong storms and heavy
rainfall tonight as low pressure travels across Wisconsin.
Tonight...A few storms will likely linger over northern to far
northeast WI into the evening hours. Intensity of the storms
should quickly wane with loss of daytime heating, but a strong
storm or two could linger into the first couple hours of the
evening. Then attention turns to thunderstorm activity that is
expected to move out of Minnesota. As the warm front lifts into
central WI, followed by the weak area of low pressure overnight,
the thunderstorms are expected to move east across central and
into northeast WI starting mid to late evening. A few strong to
severe storms appear possible over central WI as the storms first
arrive in the evening. Thereafter, concerns gradually shift to a
flooding threat as storms are forecast to train across the same
areas - from central to east-central WI, while elevated
instability diminishes overnight. Forecast rainfall amounts are
not as impressive as further west, probably due to the lower
instability over this part of the region. But it appears that over
an inch of rain is a definite possibility over parts of central WI
tonight. Flash flood guidance estimates that over 2 inches of rain
is needed for a flash flooding threat. Given the low probability,
and most of the region has missed out on the heavy rainfall of the
past few days, will hold off on issuing a flash flood watch. Lows
tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the upper 60s
over the southern Fox Valley.
Tuesday...Showers and storms will likely continue for much of the
area except for the far north during the morning hours as low
pressure moves across east-central WI. Then showers and storms
will likely exit from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.
Most of the heavy rain should be diminishing by the start of
Tuesday morning, but any storms could create locally heavy
downpours. Despite some progged instability upwards of 1000 j/kg,
not sure it will be realized due to clouds and precip around.
Highs expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
Precipitation trends will be the main forecast concerns.
The cold front is expected to drop south of the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This should result in a mainly dry forecast
during the midweek period, possibly lingering into Wednesday
night. Precipitation chances and humid conditions will return as
the front lifts north as a warm front on Thursday.
Precipitation details for the 4th of July festivities are still
unclear, as models offer different ideas on where the front will
reside. The GFS is most aggressive with the precipitation, as it
develops a significant band of showers and thunderstorms over
central and east central WI, in response to a weak surface wave
moving along the front. Other models suggest less organization,
with scattered showers and storms across most of the forecast
area. Will attempt to iron these details out tomorrow.
Confidence is low for the end of the work week and beginning of
the weekend. The ECMWF keeps precipitation chances over the
forecast area until a cold front clears the region Friday night.
It then dries us out as Canadian high pressure dominates from
Saturday through Monday. The GFS suggests a mainly dry period
from late Thursday night through Friday night, then brings
another frontal system through the region later Saturday into
Saturday night. Either way, Sunday and Monday look reasonable,
with seasonable temperatures and less humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 746 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
A slow moving E-W orientated cold front will continue to sag
southward across the forecast area overnight and into the day on
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms have developed near this
boundary across much of southern Minnesota eastward into the
central and southwest Wisconsin. The forecast area will be on the
northern periphery of stronger thunderstorms that are forecast to
move across the southern third of the state overnight. Further to
the north, occasional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
most likely impact TAF sites along and south of Highway 29
including AUW,CWA,ATW and GRB. Occasional MFVR cigs and vsbys will
accommpany this activity through the overnight hours. Over
northcentral Wisconsin only occasional showers are expected with
cigs gradually falling from mainly VFR to the MVFR category after
midnight. Some pacthy fog is also possible across northern
Wiscosnin as well.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will
continue into the morning on Tuesday over the eastcentral
Wisconsin,then gradually taper off toward midday. Occasional MVFR
cigs will be possible especially south of Highway 29 Tuesday
morning. A few more storms may redevelop later Tuesday afternoon
along the cold front, but latest model guidance suggests bulk of
this activity will likely be south of the forecast area. Most
likely area to see renewed convectivity activity if it develops,
will be over the southern Fox Valley impacting the ATW and MTW TAF
sites toward the end of the TAF period. Forecast confidence
however remains low for Tuedsay afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1117 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations. It
appears that an isolated shower could still occur late tonight.
Overall, no significant changes were needed at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 824 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
Hourly grids have been updated based on recent radar, satellite,
and short term model trends. Cumulus across the area has mostly
dissipate and convection that was occurring in Central KY is also
dissipating. With the loss of daytime heating, no activity is
expected for the rest of the evening and into the overnight and
pops were lowered during the next few hours. Some of the recent
runs of convective allowing models have activity developing around
or after 4 AM in northeast KY so left slight chance pops in place
for late tonight. Valley fog will become a concern again tonight
and it could be dense in some of the river valleys. Other than
lowering min T a degree or two for some of the typically colder
eastern valleys, no changes were made to temperatures overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
Low clouds were slow to burn off over much of the forecast area
today, and this initially slowed temperature rises. Temperatures
responded quickly under mid afternoon sunshine and have increased
into the middle to upper 80s. While satellite showed a cumulus
field, the vertical growth has been minimal so far. However, will
keep a slight chance of thunderstorms into the evening for the far
west and north, which is consistent with the previous forecast.
Most model guidance, including the SREF suggests at least a small
chance of showers later tonight, possibly associated with a weak
short wave moving through the upper ridge. The better chances
would appear to be to our northwest, but even the latest HRRR does
hint at a couple of showers in the northwest part of the forecast
area after 08Z. Will follow this idea and carry a slight chance of
showers in the north beginning at 08Z and then gradually bringing
that chance south through the early morning. There should be less
fog and low low cloud tonight, allowing for quicker heating and
destabilization on Tuesday. After a warm night with lows only in
the upper 60s temperatures should be a little warmer on Tuesday
than today. With deeper moisture in place on Tuesday, daytime
heating should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will
carry a probability of rain generally from 30 percent in the south
and central, to 40 percent in the far north for Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
The latest model data suggests that an active pattern is setting up
in the extended. The primary players will be a developing trough of
low pressure aloft that will be ejecting out of the northern and
central plains toward the middle of the week along with a slow
moving surface frontal boundary. Initial signs are that as the upper
trough strengthens and moves east, the surface front will
essentially get hung up across the Ohio and Tennessee valley
regions. There will be daily and nightly chances of rain for
eastern Kentucky, especially heading into the weekend, when the
front is forecast to stall across our area and the upper trough is
nearly overhead. Thunderstorms should be most prevalent during
the afternoon and early evening hours. We will be on the look out
for the potential for locally heavy rain and any flooding issues
that it may lead to. Another of concern will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. At
this time, the latest model data is suggesting that a moist and
unstable air mass will be in place across the region. This air
would then interact with any left over outflow boundaries or
instability gradients that may be in place across the area. Any
storms that fire late in the day Wednesday will have the potential
for a few damaging wind gusts. The SPC currently has all of
eastern Kentucky under a marginal risk of severe weather on
Wednesday. Temperatures should continue to max out in the mid to
upper 80s each day, and bottom out in the upper 60s each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
High pressure will continue to control the weather across eastern
KY. Some fog is expected to develop again by around 5Z in some
valley locations, but should not be as extensive as last night as
not convection occurred today. Guidance has trended toward less
fog at the TAF sites, with recent lamp and consshort guidance
keeping vis VFR or MVFR overnight and opted to keep things VFR at
all TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail past 12Z, although
isolated to scattered convection may develop as early as 15Z to
17Z and affect portions of the area through the end of the period.
Breif periods of IFR or MVFR as well as gusty winds will be
possible in any activity though no more than VCTS was used at the
TAF sites at this time due to relatively low probabilities and
timing uncertainty. Outside of any convection late in the period,
winds will continue to be light generally less than 10kt in all
locations.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal flow through the
northern CONUS with several weak embedded shortwaves. One shrtwv
into central Upper Michigan supported sct shra over the southeast
half of Upper Michigan. At the surface, a weak trough extended from
James Bay to northeast MN. The very warm/humid air with 70s
dewpoints remained south of stationary front from srn MN into
central WI.
Tonight, after the showers move out of the east into this evening,
expect little or no pcpn until late tonight. The models have trended
farther south with additional shra/tsra, keeping the focus near the
stationary boundary to the south. However, some showers and possibly
a thunderstorm could still brush the southern portion of Upper
Michigan. With abundant low level moisture remaining over the area,
patchy fog will also be possible.
Tuesday, Any showers that develop into southern Upper Michigan may
linger into the morning but should exit the area by early
afternoon as weak high pressure builds into the northern Great Lakes
and the front sags farther to the south. Abundant sunshine will push
inland temps into the mid 80s while prominent lake breezes
developing with the weak pressure gradient will keep readings in the
lower to mid 70s near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
The quasi-zonal upper-level pattern continues for the next few days.
With slight height rises Wednesday, it still looks hot and humid
away from the lakes with inland highs approaching 90 and dew points
in the low to mid 60s, especially south central. With not much wind,
should get a refreshing lake breeze off Lake Superior in the
afternoon. There could be some patchy ground fog in the morning with
drier air aloft, light to near calm winds in the absence of any
gradient forcing, and the high humidity. But nothing dense expected.
Still watching the cold front Thursday or Friday. The GFS advertises
a set up for numerous thunderstorms Fourth of July afternoon, but
the 00z EC continues to delay the FROPA until Friday. Due to
lingering uncertainty in the timing of the FROPA, will continue to
cap POPs at high-end chance rather than likely. However, should note
the GFS and NAM (and to a lesser degree the CMC) have more than
enough CAPE for numerous thunderstorms. Kinematics with this short
wave are a bit lacking so we`re looking at less favorable deep layer
shear for more organized severe weather (generally less than 35
kts). Nonetheless, those with outdoor plans for the Fourth will want
to keep an eye on the weather. Continued to carry chance
showers/storms into Friday to account for the EC`s slower FROPA but
basically it`ll be one day or the either, likely not wet both days.
The EC`s overall more amplified solution with the slower FROPA also
means strong CAA Saturday behind the front, and actually a quite
pleasant weekend with 850 mb temps dropping to near or below 10 C
and thus daytime highs only in the mid to upper 70s with low
humidity. The GFS, on the other hand, quickly develops another wave
and reintroduces rain chances to the west on Saturday. Given that
that`s a new development, have kept Saturday mostly dry for now
except for chance showers along the Wisconsin Line.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. With lingering
abundant low level moisture over the area and light winds, some
patchy fog with vsby possibly into the VLIFR range is expected
tonight which will burn off Tue morning.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 411 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019
Patchy fog will be possible over Lake Superior through most of
this week. Winds will remain below 20 knots through the week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening frontal band will bring a few showers and locally
breezy conditions tonight as it passes through the region from
south to north. Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some slow moving storms may
be capable of locally heavy rain. A gradually warming trend is
expected Thursday into the weekend with a continuation of
scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A closed low nearing the central Oregon coast this
afternoon will move into NW Oregon overnight. As it does so models
show showers and thunderstorms developing through early this
evening to our south across Central and NE Oregon, as well as the
lower Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley. All indications is that
the activity will rapidly weaken as it moves north from there
towards Wenatchee and Moses Lake, and probably Lewiston as well
with just a few high based showers or sprinkles. This is due to
the flow aloft stretching this band...as well as the loss of
daytime heating. However this band of convection will likely send
out a gust front with this being a consistent signal in the NAM,
GFS, and HRRR. This gust front should weaken as it moves north
this evening, reaching Moses Lake, Ritzville, Pullman, and
Lewiston between 8-11pm this evening and then the Spokane area
around midnight. Models show 20-30 mph gust potential with local
gusts to 40 mph possible in the Columbia Basin. JW
Tuesday through Wednesday...Good model agreement exists through
this period featuring the slow west to east progression through
eastern Washington and north Idaho of the latest upper level low
pressure currently visible on satellite just off the Oregon
coast. Satellite also indicates a trough digging from the
northwest through British Columbia this afternoon. The passage of
the the upper low will bring some cooler air aloft to aid in daily
destabilization of the afternoon air mass with afternoon surface
heating. The air mass is also quite moist with precipitable water
values on the order of 3/4 of an inch. Steering flow in this weak
circulation will also be light. This is a recipe for slow moving
pulse type thunderstorms capable of producing local heavy rain in
their cores...and this situation will exist Tuesday afternoon and
again on Wednesday afternoon. This is a pretty high confidence
call given these conditions in this pattern.
Areal coverage of this threat is the main forecast challenge. Late
tonight and early Tuesday morning some residual sprinkles from
the shearing overnight convective band will linger over the
northern mountains. This mid level fossil front will then
encounter the front associated with the trough dropping out of
Canada during the afternoon...and multiple HiRes models suggest
this collision boundary will blossom into afternoon convection
certainly across the mountains ringing the basin but possibly over
the Columbia Basin as well. Tuesday will probably be the most
active thunder day of the next week. No severe weather is
expected...but some local flooding issues could result from some
of the beefier slow movers. It will also take a longer time for
convection to decrease during the evening with the presence of
this focusing mechanism and substantial debris clouds could remain
with some sprinkles of light showers through much of Tuesday
night over the region.
Similar moisture and instability conditions will exist on
Wednesday as well but areal coverage is less certain due to model
differences with any subtle boundaries and focusing mechanisms.
Expect another active thunderstorm day on Wednesday around the
region with the mountain zones most threatened. /Fugazzi
Thursday: For the period of the 4th of July, the showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue as the Low exits the region.
Models are beginning to come in line with each and bring the Low
through Southern WA. The areas expected to be impacted by the most
precip are the northern mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Winds
are expected to calm. Highs will start to climb into the 80s and
low 90s for most locations.
Friday through Monday: A flat ridge is expected to build over the
region with another Low dropping moving off the coast of WA.
Moisture will still be moving along the Canadian Border and
leading to continue threat of showers and thunderstorms in that
area. The rest of the Inland Northwest will remain precip free.
Highs will be in the range upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows will climb
into the upper 50s and low 60s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system approaching Oregon will kick off
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to our south. Models show
this activity weakening as it moves north into Washington this
evening but this convection should kick up a gust front. Latest
HRRR model run as well as NAM soundings show potential for 20-25
KT with locally higher gusts for all TAF sites except KEAT
beginning at KPUW/KLWS/KMWH around 05z this evening and then
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE near 07-08z. Cloud bases through the period should
remain at or above 8K feet AGL with a continuation of VFR
conditions. SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 78 53 75 53 79 / 10 10 30 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 73 52 76 / 10 20 30 30 10 10
Pullman 54 73 49 72 50 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 61 80 57 80 58 83 / 20 20 20 20 10 10
Colville 48 82 46 81 45 81 / 10 40 50 30 20 30
Sandpoint 54 75 51 71 52 73 / 10 30 50 40 20 40
Kellogg 57 74 54 70 55 73 / 10 30 50 40 20 20
Moses Lake 58 83 55 82 55 86 / 10 10 30 10 10 10
Wenatchee 61 78 59 79 59 83 / 10 30 30 20 10 10
Omak 58 80 56 82 56 83 / 10 30 40 20 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
803 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.UPDATE...Ongoing widespread rain showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will continue to lift north through the forecast
area and decrease in coverage through 6Z. While instability is
limited, a few thunderstorms may linger across portions of the
Blue & Wallowa Mountains as well as along the east slopes of the
Cascades through 6z tonight. A few wind gusts up to 30 mph as
well as heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest
thunderstorms. Forecast was updated to reflect decreasing chances
for rain as well as lower chances for thunderstorms across the
area. Richards
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Upper level low along the
Oregon coast will move inland and into northern Idaho by
Wednesday...though a general troughy pattern will persist through
Thursday. Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon is
already showing thunderstorms developing along the Oregon Cascade
crest...which is likely to be the beginning of a significant
thunderstorm episode for the area this afternoon and
evening. Latest HRRR shows widespread convection spreading
northeast during this time with the heaviest storms likely to be
in Oregon. There is some potential for a consolidated line of
storms to form and move off the Blue Mountains across the
Columbia Basin this evening producing strong wind gusts. Otherwise
the stronger storms this afternoon and evening could produce
gusty winds and hail. The weather will be quieter on Tuesday but
there will be lingering instability along the Washington Cascade
east slopes, adjacent valleys and northeast mountains for at
least isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A storm or two
could drift into the Columbia Basin of Washington during the
evening hours Tuesday. Wednesday the thunderstorms in Washington
will be confined closer to the crest as well as the northeast
mountains in Oregon. On Thursday mainly just Wallowa County will
have a chance for a storm or two. It will be a bit breezy at times
in the Cascade gaps but winds are expected to remain below
advisory levels. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal for this time of year. 78
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...May see some lingering
showers/thunderstorms in the Wallowas Thursday night as an upper
level trough exits to the east. Models in reasonable agreement
developing yet another upper low near Vancouver Island during the
day Friday with mostly dry westerly flow over the forecast area on
Friday and Saturday. As the low/trough slowly shift east flow over
the bulk of the region will turn southwesterly with a slight chance
of mountain showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms near
the Wallowas where marginal instability is a little stronger
returning by Sunday afternoon/evening. With onshore flow through the
extended would expect at least a weak marine layer to develop on the
west side of the Cascades resulting in afternoon temperature
gradients of 8 to 10 degrees and resulting late afternoon/early
evening breezy winds near the Cascades. Afternoon highs Friday and
Saturday will be around 5 degrees above normal, falling to near
normal Sunday through the remainder of the forecast. Peck
AVIATION...00Z TAFs...An area of showers and thunderstorms will
develop ahead of an upper level low pressure system over western
Oregon. Convection will spread from south to north through the
early evening. Brief heavy rain may reduce visibilities to MVFR at
KDLS, KPDT, KYKM, KALW, and KPSC. Winds 8-15 kts will decrease
overnight, but increase again by late morning/early afternoon to 10-
20 kts with higher gusts. Gusty and erratic winds will also be
possible near any evening thunderstorms. Earle
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 54 78 51 77 / 60 10 10 10
ALW 59 83 56 82 / 40 10 10 10
PSC 62 84 58 83 / 40 10 20 0
YKM 57 81 55 82 / 40 20 20 10
HRI 59 84 56 83 / 60 10 10 0
ELN 56 74 54 76 / 30 20 20 10
RDM 47 73 44 74 / 60 10 0 10
LGD 54 74 50 73 / 50 10 10 10
GCD 51 77 47 76 / 40 10 10 10
DLS 59 77 57 79 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
75/74/81
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region through tonight before sliding
to the south and east. A cold front will move into the area on
Tuesday, stalling just to our south on Wednesday. The stalled front
will push northward as a warm front Thursday into Friday. Another
cold front will cross the region over the weekend, followed by a
return to high pressure for the start of the new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Quiet night tonight as high pressure continues to build
eastward into the mid-Atlantic. Forecast on track, so only minor
adjustments are needed to the database.
Winds will become light and variable as the boundary layer
decouples. Lows will be seasonable in the low 60s north to upper
60s in the Philly metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Models are continuing to slow the chances for precipitation
tomorrow associated with the shortwave trough that will slip
southeastward across the Northeast. Thus, the first part of
the day looks relatively similar to today with mostly clear
skies in the morning. Temperatures will climb a little further
than today, likely reaching or exceeding 90 at most locations.
Latest look at several CAMs suggest showers and thunderstorms
will begin to form across northeast PA early tomorrow afternoon,
eventually forming a broken line. This line is forecast to move
southward across southeastern PA and NJ through the afternoon
and into the evening. Forecast CAPE values above 2000 J/kg will
support thunderstorm development. However, lower shear values
generally below 30 knots and lack of large-scale forcing will
likely keep storms sub-severe. The chance of a severe storm is
definitely non-zero, however. The best chances for thunderstorms
look to center along and north of I-76/I-195. Note that there is
a great deal of uncertainty in just how far southward the line
of convection will reach with the ARW and RAP bringing the line
through the Philly metro, while the NAM NEST suggests it may
weaken before this. Will need to see if agreement is reached in
future model runs. Kept a general chance for thunderstorms in
the grids for now mostly along and north of I-76.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the week with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms almost daily.
A cold front will drop down through the region Tuesday evening
before settling just to the south of our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday. The boundary will wobble for a couple of days nearby and
with several rounds of shortwaves moving across the Mid-Atlantic, we
will see showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Best chances
for any showers or thunderstorms looks to be closer to the actual
boundary and across our southern areas, but with surface heating
across our entire forecast area leading to some instability, we may
see isolated ones pop up elsewhere.
The stalled boundary starts to push northward on Thursday as a warm
front and should push to our north by early Friday. This will put us
fully in the warm sector and we will see continued chances for
convection, especially as we seeing more warming occur at the
surface. Additionally, dew points will also start to rise some more
and it will feel a bit more humid, especially on Friday. With
increased dew points and low level moisture, PWATs surge back around
2 inches and any storms will be able to produce heavy rainfall.
Another front will cross the region later Saturday, bringing with it
some more convection. Once the boundary passes offshore, we should
have some slightly cooler and drier air arrive for Sunday. The front
sags southward and should remain far enough away from the region
that we remain dry for Sunday. However, some guidance indicates that
the boundary stalls close enough to our area that low pressure forms
along it and impacts the region into Monday whereas other guidance
shows a return to high pressure for the new week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight... VFR. Winds light and variable.
Tuesday... VFR conditions expected for the morning and early
afternoon with winds west-southwesterly at 5 to 10 kt. Tstms are
possible in the late afternoon and evening, and have added a mention
of thunder at all terminals to account for this, with timing to be
refined as the threat becomes more clear.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Light winds overnight become northwest around 5 knots or less. MVFR
or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. South to
southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. MVFR or lower conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds
around 5 to 10 knots. MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday...sub SCA conditions with southwesterly winds
10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Outlook...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the outlook
period.
Tuesday night...Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3
feet.
Wednesday...Mainly southerly winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Rip Currents...
With increasing west winds Tuesday afternoon, there is a
moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
New Jersey beaches. There is a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents at Delaware beaches as winds will be
lighter.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...
Short Term...Davis
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Davis/Meola/O`Brien
Marine...Davis/Meola/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Convection has dissipated for the evening but will need to watch
for redevelopment along and northwest of the I-30 Corridor which
will include the northern third of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR where
our inverted trough axis currently resides. The latest 00z NAM as
well as the HRRR and HREF all hint at this possibility after
midnight. Still dealing with some left over debris cloud cover
across the region as well so have adjusted sky grids to account
for this. Cannot rule out some patchy fog where rainfall occurred
earlier today but nothing widespread is expected overnight towards
the predawn hours on Tue.
Forecast minimum temperatures are looking pretty good so did not
make any changes in this department but did adjust hourly temp and
dewpoint grids to mimic current trends.
No other changes are necessary attm. Update out shortly...13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/
AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
LFK/TYR/GGG/SHV/TXK terminals will likely die off after 03z this
evening. Handled this with VCTS for these terminal locations with
TEMPO groups for TSRA, VSBY reduction, VRB wind gusts and lower
ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through much of
the evening.
Overnight, will need to watch for the development of some fog at
the MLU/TYR/GGG/LFK and ELD terminals. Could also see some
nocturnal convection late tonight in the vicinity of the TXK
terminal so made mention of this as well. In addition to the fog
potential, may see MVFR/IFR ceilings develop at the TYR/GGG and
LFK terminals through 02/14z. Any low clouds and or reductions in
VSBY should lift and or scatter out by mid to late morning on Tue.
Introduced VCTS once again by 02/18z at all terminal locations
with the development for the development of scattered afternoon
convection.
South to southeast winds at or below 10kts overnight will prevail
through the day Tuesday as well outside thunderstorm activity.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 90 73 88 / 10 20 20 40
MLU 72 92 73 90 / 10 20 10 40
DEQ 70 89 71 89 / 30 30 20 40
TXK 71 89 72 88 / 10 20 20 40
ELD 70 91 72 90 / 10 20 20 40
TYR 71 88 71 87 / 10 40 10 40
GGG 71 88 72 88 / 10 40 20 40
LFK 71 89 73 88 / 10 30 20 50
$$
13/13