Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/02/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Convection that initiated near ESC late this afternoon did eventually grow upscale, crossing portions of far n central and ne lower MI. The associated MCV also helped kick off cellular activity ahead of the primary cluster. These have occasionally had healthy rainfall rates, but all of this convection has been quite squatty. There were a few ltg strikes near and east of ISQ way back around mid-afternoon, but otherwise there has been no lightning/thunder at all. SPC has mercifully pulled the plug on the marginal svr threat. Ongoing activity in ne lower MI will gradually diminish in intensity/coverage as instability wanes, even as it exits as the forcing MCV moves off to the east. Some showers are also poking into the MBL area, the leading edge of a lengthy area of convection that extends back to the MN/IA border. This is north of a surface warm front over northern IA and the WI/IL border. Models not handling this particularly well at all. Will be boosting pops in southern third of the forecast area for the rest of the night, in some cases substantially (especially along our southern border). Activity will still tend to turn to the right as it crosses eastern WI and Lake MI, due to mean 850-300mb winds. Will still mention a small chance for thunder. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 ...Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight... High Impact Weather Potential: Marginal risk for strong storms tonight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure over James Bay with attending front arcing through eastern Ontario and back through the U.P. and across central Minnesota. Low-mid level moisture/instability plume spans much of the Midwest and eastward into Michigan with surface dewpoints spanning the middle 60s to near 70...pretty good for these parts. 18Z SPC mesoanalysis page shows MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/KG in eastern upper and northern Lower Michigan. But the best instability still resides back across Iowa and south. Thus far, there are a few thunderstorms that have popped in central-eastern upper Michigan in the last hour or so ahead of the front...and about to slip into eastern upper Michigan soon. Nothing south of the bridge so far other than a decent build up of CU across NE Lower Michigan earlier. Convective evolution remains the biggest forecast challenge. Most recent high resolution guidance runs have suggested an organizing cluster of showers/storms developing in the U.P. and riding down into northern Lower Michigan as we get into the evening. It appears we have the beginnings of that. But whether or not storms will continue to develop upscale and then survive coming across the lake is another matter. Most recent HRRR runs say no. For now I`ll stick with the idea that some showers/storms will eventually drop down into northern Lower Michigan as we get into the evening hours. Meanwhile, additional shower/storm development is likely back through Wisconsin later this evening and may spread into northern Lower Michigan toward Tuesday morning. Lots of uncertainty remains of course and we will just have to see how it goes. Severe threat: 40 to 50 knots of westerly mid level flow and effective bulk shear values in excess of 35 knots suggest at least a marginal threat for storm organization/severe weather threat through mid evening before instability winds down. SPC Day One outlook was updated a few hours back to put most of the forecast area into a marginal risk...which seems reasonable. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 ...Warm and muggy with showers/storms possible Tuesday... High Impact Weather Potential...Generally low. Primary Forecast Concerns...Potential for strong storms Tuesday. A nearly stationary front is expected to reside in the north central lower Michigan area Tuesday. Warm and muggy air along and south of this boundary in combination with daytime heating may spark a few showers and thunderstorms...though better instability will likely remain to the south of the forecast area. There is a large gradient of precipitable water values across the forecast area with a range from about 0.75 inches across eastern upper to near 1.75 inches across far southern counties. Not a lot of wind aloft with 0-6 Km bulk shear only 20 to 30 knots, even still can not rule out a couple of strong storms south. Highs generally in the lower and middle 80s. Tuesday night into Wednesday night...Drier air settles in from the north and combines with increasing upper level ridging to lead to mainly precipitation free conditions. Remaining warm Wednesday with highs in the middle and upper 80s but at least with less humidity. Lows at night in the cooler upper 50s and lower 60s. Thursday...Very warm and increasingly humid once again as precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches. A possible short wave moving through the upper level ridge may spark a few showers and thunderstorms. There is potential to get pretty toasty with 850 mb temperatures in the +18 or +19 C range. However, uncertainty over cloud cover may inhibit full mixing. Will have highs in the middle and upper 80s but wouldn`t be too surprised if some spots hit 90 or slightly higher. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 ...Turning cooler and less humid... High Impact Weather Potential...Low. Perhaps some lingering heat and humidity along with possible showers and storms Friday. Otherwise, a drying and cooling trend is expected overall in the long term. Highs in the lower and middle 80s Friday will be generally replaced with highs in the middle 70s to around 80 Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1157 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 MVFR at times tonight/Tuesday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in parts of the northern Great Lakes, in the vicinity of an incoming weak cold front. One cluster is departing the ne lower MI/APN area.Another showers, and perhaps a few t-storms, are inbound into nw lower MI, including TVC and MBL. Occasional cig/vsby restrictions are expected with those overnight. Otherwise, a marine layer from the nearby chilly Great Lakes will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys at times tonight and Tue morning. Light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Overall lighter winds/waves anticipated through Wednesday with no marine headlines expected. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact the region tonight through Tuesday and may bring brief locally higher winds and waves. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...BA SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...JZ MARINE...BA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1055 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 At 2 PM, temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. 100 mb mixed layer CAPES were in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. The RAP along with other CAMs are in agreement that these CAPES will climb into the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg range later this afternoon and remain in the range through the early evening. This instability will be growing ahead of a MCV moving east out of southwest Minnesota. There will be sufficient support during the mid to late afternoon for supercell thunderstorms and then as a 700 mb speed moves east of the area. This convection will transition to training and multi linear storm mode. Severe weather will be possible from 4 PM to 10 PM. The main threat will damaging winds and very heavy rain. In addition, there will be the potential for large hail and isolated tornadoes, but these threats would be mainly early in the event. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase along and near the Interstate 90 and 94 corridors. With precipitable water values between 2 and 2.25 inches and warm cloud depths of 4 to 4.5 km, these showers and storms will be highly efficient rain producers. Rainfall rates could be in the excess of 2 inches per hour. With soils already saturated, runoff will quickly run off into area rivers and streams causing rapid rises and potential flooding. In addition, there could be flash flooding in urban areas and other flood prone areas. In bluff country, there will be the possibility of mud and rock slides. Due to this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued. On Tuesday, the front will be located across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. With ML CAPES of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg and weak convergence along the front, there will be a redevelopment of showers and storms. With weak shear, any severe weather will be isolated and short-lived, so the marginal SPC risk looks good. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 It looks like the broken record forecast will continue through at least the end of the work week. The 01.12Z models continue to show the general zonal flow remaining in place across the Upper Midwest with several short wave troughs coming out the western conus troughing. The next of these waves looks to be timed up to come across Wednesday afternoon and evening. With little overall change expected to occur before this wave arrives, there should be ample ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg in place ahead of it. The shear available with this wave looks to be rather limited, as would be expected in a zonal pattern, with maybe 25 to 30 knots in the 0-3 km layer. This would suggest at least some potential for some strong to possibly severe storms again. However, the bigger concern will continue to be with heavy rain and possible flooding/flash flooding. The low level moisture transport should increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching short wave trough and looks to be focused right into the area. Precipitable water values will still be on the order of 2 inches or higher with warm cloud depths of 3.5 to 4.5 km. With this setup, there will likely be the need for additional flash flood watches. The zonal pattern looks to hold tight after the passage of the Wednesday system with pretty good consensus that yet another short wave trough could move over the area Thursday. Some differences then between the models whether the next wave would come in Friday or Friday night into Saturday. The surface boundary still looks to be hanging out across the region and will likely serve as the focus for additional convection as these waves move across the region. After these waves go by the area, there may finally be a pattern change. The upper level ridge looks to build back north and over the Upper Midwest for the last part of the weekend into the start of next week. This may allow a cold front to push across the region and bring in some cooler and drier air. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Scattered showers will linger overnight with a few thunderstorms also possible. Most of this activity will depart from the vicinity of the TAF sites by daybreak. Plenty of residual low level moisture may promote some BR development at LSE towards daybreak, but of more concern will be the likelihood of MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings developing around/after daybreak, perhaps lingering into midday at both TAF sites. Do expect ceilings will begin to lift by afternoon as daytime mixing initiates, and there are signs the cloud deck should also scatter out. Tuesday is shaping up to be a drier day overall, and light winds will gradually veer northerly through the period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
636 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Through Tuesday. Scattered showers have developed this afternoon generally along the Interstate 20 corridor just south of the previously mentioned mesoscale boundary identified this morning. So far, it`s been tough to get enough sustained updrafts for more organized convection to develop. RAP analysis is currently indicating SB CAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/KG. Even though there`s plenty of fuel it appears the warmer 500mb temps and increased upper heights are having the biggest impact on convective development. Still, we`re not going to rule out a stronger storm or two this afternoon that will be capable of producing gusty winds up to 40mph. Similar to yesterday, storms will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating giving way to muggy overnight conditions. The upper ridge will continue to slowly move westward over the Gulf of Mexico through the day on Tuesday. Low-level thicknesses will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon that should support at least mid 90s for highs. I wouldn`t be surprised if a few upper 90s were observed across our far southern counties. In terms of the heat index, tomorrow will be the first of several days this week in which we could hit 105 in a few spots, and we`ll continue to highlight the low confidence mention of heat in the HWO. With heights increasing further tomorrow, we can expect convection to be even more isolated than what we`re observing today. 56/GDG .LONG TERM... /Issued at 330 AM CT/ Tuesday through Monday. Ridging remains in place across the Southeastern CONUS Tuesday as the upper level low gradually dissipates. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the weekend as the high pressure remains overhead. Anomalously high moisture in the lower levels will cause heat indices to trend upward Wednesday through Saturday with triple digits likely. I`ll continue mentioning heat impacts in the hazardous weather outlook, but confidence remains low because of the uncertainty in when and where convection will occur in the afternoons, which could limit the daytime heating. A shortwave trough slides through the Upper Plains and into the Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday, which will flatten the ridge across the Southeast. This could lead to a slight increase in afternoon showers and storms Sunday into Monday as we see relative height falls, though I won`t go much higher than 40% this far in advance. Temperatures do trend downward slightly, but still expect heat indices to be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for much of the area. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions will prevail most of the period. Convection had a hard time developing today to any vertical depth, with most thunder southwest of all terminals. There were a few showers around and added VCSH shower for a few hours this evening. Then, the skies will become mostly clear overnight with light and variable winds. On Tuesday, thunderstorms will have a hard time developing in any number, therefore, have left out of the forecast at this time. There will be some, but chances are too low at any terminal. Surface high pressure remain centered just south and west of the area. This produces winds west to west northwest around 6-8kts by afternoon. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm weather continues today through much of this week. Min RHs remain in the 40-50% range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and will persist into the evening each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 93 72 93 71 / 20 20 10 30 10 Anniston 71 93 73 93 73 / 20 10 10 20 10 Birmingham 73 95 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 30 10 Tuscaloosa 73 96 75 95 75 / 20 10 10 30 10 Calera 72 95 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 30 10 Auburn 74 94 74 93 75 / 20 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 30 20 Troy 73 96 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Convection popping over se Wy currently but not really organizing much as shear is pretty low and only modest instabilities. Could see a few stronger storms at times into this evening, likely brief, with strong wind gusts the main threat. HRRR pretty much keep activity over se Wy with little over the Panhandle. Tuesday pretty much more of the same as the CWA remains under a generally WSW upper flow with weak impulses riding across, with sctd showers and tstms once again in the aftn and evening, a few potentially strong. Activity waning in the evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Fairly stagnant weather pattern over the region through the period with upper troughing over the Pacific northwest and upper ridging over the southern plains keeping a generally swly upper flow over the area. Weak impulses will pass by from time to time keeping sctd mainly aftn and evening showers/tstms through the period. Temperatures remaining around seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 456 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Thunderstorms early this evening impacting airfields along and south of a line from Wheatland to Torrington to Scottsbluff. Looks like storms die off after 03Z or so. Could see low stratus returning to KCDR and KAIA...given forecast wind directions though...not quite confident enough to add. Will continue monitoring for the 06Z TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Concerns expected to stay low with little change expected in the weather over the area this week. Temperatures will be seasonal with scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day, mostly in the afternoons and evenings. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Additional rainfall and snowmelt over the next several days could bring levels back to action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to stay to the east of the mountain ranges. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
731 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .DISCUSSION... Evening update... Did an update to cancel WW 474 and add in WW 476, and adjusted POPs to try to match the radar and a blend of the high- res models (mostly HRRR & RAP13), which looked something like the radar initially. Once the current activity moves out, the overnight hours should be quiet. A few showers could fire up again tomorrow south of the MO River, with some thunder southeast (Prairie, Wibaux, and southern Dawson Counties) late tomorrow afternoon and evening, where SPC has a marginal and slight risk outlooked. Avery Previous discussion... Quiet weather conditions prevailed across Northeast Montana late this morning and early this afternoon. No shower activity was observed over our forecast area. Dew point temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s with some spot observing dew points in the low 60s. Latest sounding data revealed precipitable water running a little high for this time of the year, but forecast sounding indicating PWAT values could reach over an inch late this afternoon. Favorable upper level dynamics, and low level moisture will combined with daytime heating to aid in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. Most of the activity will begin to form across southwestern Petroleum County and it will move east northeast across Valley and Garfield Counties. Latest model guidance indicated scattered thunderstorms will form across Petroleum and Phillips Counties merging together forming a line of strong/severe thunderstorms with severe wind threat spreading across Valley and Garfield Counties later this afternoon/this evening. Most of the aforementioned activity will exit the region by around 10 pm MDT. For the rest of the work week, and unsettled weather is forecast to affect the region, as a series of low pressure areas moves across the region. FGC && .AVIATION... Tempo MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across KGGW and KOLF between 02/00z and 02/02z with TSRA possible. Conditions will improve to VFR conditions by around 02/04z. VFR conditions expected across KSDY and KGDV but an isolated thunderstorms cant be ruled out. Low level winds will be mainly west at 10 kts or less. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
827 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A couple MCSs have organized over southern MN and NW IA late this evening along approximate W-E quasistationary frontal boundary. Latest satellite and radar trends indicate that the most robust convection with the lead system is now working east across the ARX area. This activity should continue to move east/southeast across southern third of the state overnight along the instability gradient, thus the threat for severe weather in the GRB forecast area appears rather minimal for the remainder of the night. It appears the southern portion of the forecast area will primarily be impacted by the more stable stratiform precipitation shield of the lead MCS. It appears Wood, Portage and Waupaca counties stand to see the most rainfall from this MCS overnight with the activity becoming more scattered in nature north of highway 29. An additional 0.50 to perhaps an 1.00 inch of rain is possible in the aforementioned counties overnight which should have minimal impacts given latest 6 hour FF guidance is closer to 2-2.5 inches in these counties. Only some minor cosmetic changes will be made to current forecast for the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over southeast South Dakota, and an associated warm front extending east across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front is draped across northwest Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. Compared to the past few days, the radar is relatively quiet. Scattered showers are moving across the southern half of Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin. Due to widespread mid and upper clouds, instability has been slow to build south of the cold front, with greater than 600 j/kg of surface based cape, and no mixed layer cape analyzed. The latest short range models continue to indicate that storms are possible this afternoon along the cold front and will keep the highest rain chances across northern WI until 00z. A few strong to near severe storms will be possible, capable of producing strong gusty winds. However, the main forecast concern revolves the potential of strong storms and heavy rainfall tonight as low pressure travels across Wisconsin. Tonight...A few storms will likely linger over northern to far northeast WI into the evening hours. Intensity of the storms should quickly wane with loss of daytime heating, but a strong storm or two could linger into the first couple hours of the evening. Then attention turns to thunderstorm activity that is expected to move out of Minnesota. As the warm front lifts into central WI, followed by the weak area of low pressure overnight, the thunderstorms are expected to move east across central and into northeast WI starting mid to late evening. A few strong to severe storms appear possible over central WI as the storms first arrive in the evening. Thereafter, concerns gradually shift to a flooding threat as storms are forecast to train across the same areas - from central to east-central WI, while elevated instability diminishes overnight. Forecast rainfall amounts are not as impressive as further west, probably due to the lower instability over this part of the region. But it appears that over an inch of rain is a definite possibility over parts of central WI tonight. Flash flood guidance estimates that over 2 inches of rain is needed for a flash flooding threat. Given the low probability, and most of the region has missed out on the heavy rainfall of the past few days, will hold off on issuing a flash flood watch. Lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the upper 60s over the southern Fox Valley. Tuesday...Showers and storms will likely continue for much of the area except for the far north during the morning hours as low pressure moves across east-central WI. Then showers and storms will likely exit from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Most of the heavy rain should be diminishing by the start of Tuesday morning, but any storms could create locally heavy downpours. Despite some progged instability upwards of 1000 j/kg, not sure it will be realized due to clouds and precip around. Highs expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Precipitation trends will be the main forecast concerns. The cold front is expected to drop south of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should result in a mainly dry forecast during the midweek period, possibly lingering into Wednesday night. Precipitation chances and humid conditions will return as the front lifts north as a warm front on Thursday. Precipitation details for the 4th of July festivities are still unclear, as models offer different ideas on where the front will reside. The GFS is most aggressive with the precipitation, as it develops a significant band of showers and thunderstorms over central and east central WI, in response to a weak surface wave moving along the front. Other models suggest less organization, with scattered showers and storms across most of the forecast area. Will attempt to iron these details out tomorrow. Confidence is low for the end of the work week and beginning of the weekend. The ECMWF keeps precipitation chances over the forecast area until a cold front clears the region Friday night. It then dries us out as Canadian high pressure dominates from Saturday through Monday. The GFS suggests a mainly dry period from late Thursday night through Friday night, then brings another frontal system through the region later Saturday into Saturday night. Either way, Sunday and Monday look reasonable, with seasonable temperatures and less humidity. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 746 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A slow moving E-W orientated cold front will continue to sag southward across the forecast area overnight and into the day on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms have developed near this boundary across much of southern Minnesota eastward into the central and southwest Wisconsin. The forecast area will be on the northern periphery of stronger thunderstorms that are forecast to move across the southern third of the state overnight. Further to the north, occasional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will most likely impact TAF sites along and south of Highway 29 including AUW,CWA,ATW and GRB. Occasional MFVR cigs and vsbys will accommpany this activity through the overnight hours. Over northcentral Wisconsin only occasional showers are expected with cigs gradually falling from mainly VFR to the MVFR category after midnight. Some pacthy fog is also possible across northern Wiscosnin as well. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue into the morning on Tuesday over the eastcentral Wisconsin,then gradually taper off toward midday. Occasional MVFR cigs will be possible especially south of Highway 29 Tuesday morning. A few more storms may redevelop later Tuesday afternoon along the cold front, but latest model guidance suggests bulk of this activity will likely be south of the forecast area. Most likely area to see renewed convectivity activity if it develops, will be over the southern Fox Valley impacting the ATW and MTW TAF sites toward the end of the TAF period. Forecast confidence however remains low for Tuedsay afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........ESB SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......ESB
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1117 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations. It appears that an isolated shower could still occur late tonight. Overall, no significant changes were needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 824 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent radar, satellite, and short term model trends. Cumulus across the area has mostly dissipate and convection that was occurring in Central KY is also dissipating. With the loss of daytime heating, no activity is expected for the rest of the evening and into the overnight and pops were lowered during the next few hours. Some of the recent runs of convective allowing models have activity developing around or after 4 AM in northeast KY so left slight chance pops in place for late tonight. Valley fog will become a concern again tonight and it could be dense in some of the river valleys. Other than lowering min T a degree or two for some of the typically colder eastern valleys, no changes were made to temperatures overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 Low clouds were slow to burn off over much of the forecast area today, and this initially slowed temperature rises. Temperatures responded quickly under mid afternoon sunshine and have increased into the middle to upper 80s. While satellite showed a cumulus field, the vertical growth has been minimal so far. However, will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms into the evening for the far west and north, which is consistent with the previous forecast. Most model guidance, including the SREF suggests at least a small chance of showers later tonight, possibly associated with a weak short wave moving through the upper ridge. The better chances would appear to be to our northwest, but even the latest HRRR does hint at a couple of showers in the northwest part of the forecast area after 08Z. Will follow this idea and carry a slight chance of showers in the north beginning at 08Z and then gradually bringing that chance south through the early morning. There should be less fog and low low cloud tonight, allowing for quicker heating and destabilization on Tuesday. After a warm night with lows only in the upper 60s temperatures should be a little warmer on Tuesday than today. With deeper moisture in place on Tuesday, daytime heating should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will carry a probability of rain generally from 30 percent in the south and central, to 40 percent in the far north for Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 345 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 The latest model data suggests that an active pattern is setting up in the extended. The primary players will be a developing trough of low pressure aloft that will be ejecting out of the northern and central plains toward the middle of the week along with a slow moving surface frontal boundary. Initial signs are that as the upper trough strengthens and moves east, the surface front will essentially get hung up across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. There will be daily and nightly chances of rain for eastern Kentucky, especially heading into the weekend, when the front is forecast to stall across our area and the upper trough is nearly overhead. Thunderstorms should be most prevalent during the afternoon and early evening hours. We will be on the look out for the potential for locally heavy rain and any flooding issues that it may lead to. Another of concern will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this time, the latest model data is suggesting that a moist and unstable air mass will be in place across the region. This air would then interact with any left over outflow boundaries or instability gradients that may be in place across the area. Any storms that fire late in the day Wednesday will have the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. The SPC currently has all of eastern Kentucky under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday. Temperatures should continue to max out in the mid to upper 80s each day, and bottom out in the upper 60s each night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 High pressure will continue to control the weather across eastern KY. Some fog is expected to develop again by around 5Z in some valley locations, but should not be as extensive as last night as not convection occurred today. Guidance has trended toward less fog at the TAF sites, with recent lamp and consshort guidance keeping vis VFR or MVFR overnight and opted to keep things VFR at all TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail past 12Z, although isolated to scattered convection may develop as early as 15Z to 17Z and affect portions of the area through the end of the period. Breif periods of IFR or MVFR as well as gusty winds will be possible in any activity though no more than VCTS was used at the TAF sites at this time due to relatively low probabilities and timing uncertainty. Outside of any convection late in the period, winds will continue to be light generally less than 10kt in all locations. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 411 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal flow through the northern CONUS with several weak embedded shortwaves. One shrtwv into central Upper Michigan supported sct shra over the southeast half of Upper Michigan. At the surface, a weak trough extended from James Bay to northeast MN. The very warm/humid air with 70s dewpoints remained south of stationary front from srn MN into central WI. Tonight, after the showers move out of the east into this evening, expect little or no pcpn until late tonight. The models have trended farther south with additional shra/tsra, keeping the focus near the stationary boundary to the south. However, some showers and possibly a thunderstorm could still brush the southern portion of Upper Michigan. With abundant low level moisture remaining over the area, patchy fog will also be possible. Tuesday, Any showers that develop into southern Upper Michigan may linger into the morning but should exit the area by early afternoon as weak high pressure builds into the northern Great Lakes and the front sags farther to the south. Abundant sunshine will push inland temps into the mid 80s while prominent lake breezes developing with the weak pressure gradient will keep readings in the lower to mid 70s near the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 333 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 The quasi-zonal upper-level pattern continues for the next few days. With slight height rises Wednesday, it still looks hot and humid away from the lakes with inland highs approaching 90 and dew points in the low to mid 60s, especially south central. With not much wind, should get a refreshing lake breeze off Lake Superior in the afternoon. There could be some patchy ground fog in the morning with drier air aloft, light to near calm winds in the absence of any gradient forcing, and the high humidity. But nothing dense expected. Still watching the cold front Thursday or Friday. The GFS advertises a set up for numerous thunderstorms Fourth of July afternoon, but the 00z EC continues to delay the FROPA until Friday. Due to lingering uncertainty in the timing of the FROPA, will continue to cap POPs at high-end chance rather than likely. However, should note the GFS and NAM (and to a lesser degree the CMC) have more than enough CAPE for numerous thunderstorms. Kinematics with this short wave are a bit lacking so we`re looking at less favorable deep layer shear for more organized severe weather (generally less than 35 kts). Nonetheless, those with outdoor plans for the Fourth will want to keep an eye on the weather. Continued to carry chance showers/storms into Friday to account for the EC`s slower FROPA but basically it`ll be one day or the either, likely not wet both days. The EC`s overall more amplified solution with the slower FROPA also means strong CAA Saturday behind the front, and actually a quite pleasant weekend with 850 mb temps dropping to near or below 10 C and thus daytime highs only in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity. The GFS, on the other hand, quickly develops another wave and reintroduces rain chances to the west on Saturday. Given that that`s a new development, have kept Saturday mostly dry for now except for chance showers along the Wisconsin Line. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 635 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. With lingering abundant low level moisture over the area and light winds, some patchy fog with vsby possibly into the VLIFR range is expected tonight which will burn off Tue morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 411 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2019 Patchy fog will be possible over Lake Superior through most of this week. Winds will remain below 20 knots through the week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening frontal band will bring a few showers and locally breezy conditions tonight as it passes through the region from south to north. Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some slow moving storms may be capable of locally heavy rain. A gradually warming trend is expected Thursday into the weekend with a continuation of scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: A closed low nearing the central Oregon coast this afternoon will move into NW Oregon overnight. As it does so models show showers and thunderstorms developing through early this evening to our south across Central and NE Oregon, as well as the lower Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley. All indications is that the activity will rapidly weaken as it moves north from there towards Wenatchee and Moses Lake, and probably Lewiston as well with just a few high based showers or sprinkles. This is due to the flow aloft stretching this well as the loss of daytime heating. However this band of convection will likely send out a gust front with this being a consistent signal in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR. This gust front should weaken as it moves north this evening, reaching Moses Lake, Ritzville, Pullman, and Lewiston between 8-11pm this evening and then the Spokane area around midnight. Models show 20-30 mph gust potential with local gusts to 40 mph possible in the Columbia Basin. JW Tuesday through Wednesday...Good model agreement exists through this period featuring the slow west to east progression through eastern Washington and north Idaho of the latest upper level low pressure currently visible on satellite just off the Oregon coast. Satellite also indicates a trough digging from the northwest through British Columbia this afternoon. The passage of the the upper low will bring some cooler air aloft to aid in daily destabilization of the afternoon air mass with afternoon surface heating. The air mass is also quite moist with precipitable water values on the order of 3/4 of an inch. Steering flow in this weak circulation will also be light. This is a recipe for slow moving pulse type thunderstorms capable of producing local heavy rain in their cores...and this situation will exist Tuesday afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon. This is a pretty high confidence call given these conditions in this pattern. Areal coverage of this threat is the main forecast challenge. Late tonight and early Tuesday morning some residual sprinkles from the shearing overnight convective band will linger over the northern mountains. This mid level fossil front will then encounter the front associated with the trough dropping out of Canada during the afternoon...and multiple HiRes models suggest this collision boundary will blossom into afternoon convection certainly across the mountains ringing the basin but possibly over the Columbia Basin as well. Tuesday will probably be the most active thunder day of the next week. No severe weather is expected...but some local flooding issues could result from some of the beefier slow movers. It will also take a longer time for convection to decrease during the evening with the presence of this focusing mechanism and substantial debris clouds could remain with some sprinkles of light showers through much of Tuesday night over the region. Similar moisture and instability conditions will exist on Wednesday as well but areal coverage is less certain due to model differences with any subtle boundaries and focusing mechanisms. Expect another active thunderstorm day on Wednesday around the region with the mountain zones most threatened. /Fugazzi Thursday: For the period of the 4th of July, the showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue as the Low exits the region. Models are beginning to come in line with each and bring the Low through Southern WA. The areas expected to be impacted by the most precip are the northern mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Winds are expected to calm. Highs will start to climb into the 80s and low 90s for most locations. Friday through Monday: A flat ridge is expected to build over the region with another Low dropping moving off the coast of WA. Moisture will still be moving along the Canadian Border and leading to continue threat of showers and thunderstorms in that area. The rest of the Inland Northwest will remain precip free. Highs will be in the range upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows will climb into the upper 50s and low 60s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A low pressure system approaching Oregon will kick off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to our south. Models show this activity weakening as it moves north into Washington this evening but this convection should kick up a gust front. Latest HRRR model run as well as NAM soundings show potential for 20-25 KT with locally higher gusts for all TAF sites except KEAT beginning at KPUW/KLWS/KMWH around 05z this evening and then KGEG/KSFF/KCOE near 07-08z. Cloud bases through the period should remain at or above 8K feet AGL with a continuation of VFR conditions. SVH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 57 78 53 75 53 79 / 10 10 30 20 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 73 52 76 / 10 20 30 30 10 10 Pullman 54 73 49 72 50 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 61 80 57 80 58 83 / 20 20 20 20 10 10 Colville 48 82 46 81 45 81 / 10 40 50 30 20 30 Sandpoint 54 75 51 71 52 73 / 10 30 50 40 20 40 Kellogg 57 74 54 70 55 73 / 10 30 50 40 20 20 Moses Lake 58 83 55 82 55 86 / 10 10 30 10 10 10 Wenatchee 61 78 59 79 59 83 / 10 30 30 20 10 10 Omak 58 80 56 82 56 83 / 10 30 40 20 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
803 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .UPDATE...Ongoing widespread rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to lift north through the forecast area and decrease in coverage through 6Z. While instability is limited, a few thunderstorms may linger across portions of the Blue & Wallowa Mountains as well as along the east slopes of the Cascades through 6z tonight. A few wind gusts up to 30 mph as well as heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. Forecast was updated to reflect decreasing chances for rain as well as lower chances for thunderstorms across the area. Richards && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Upper level low along the Oregon coast will move inland and into northern Idaho by Wednesday...though a general troughy pattern will persist through Thursday. Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon is already showing thunderstorms developing along the Oregon Cascade crest...which is likely to be the beginning of a significant thunderstorm episode for the area this afternoon and evening. Latest HRRR shows widespread convection spreading northeast during this time with the heaviest storms likely to be in Oregon. There is some potential for a consolidated line of storms to form and move off the Blue Mountains across the Columbia Basin this evening producing strong wind gusts. Otherwise the stronger storms this afternoon and evening could produce gusty winds and hail. The weather will be quieter on Tuesday but there will be lingering instability along the Washington Cascade east slopes, adjacent valleys and northeast mountains for at least isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A storm or two could drift into the Columbia Basin of Washington during the evening hours Tuesday. Wednesday the thunderstorms in Washington will be confined closer to the crest as well as the northeast mountains in Oregon. On Thursday mainly just Wallowa County will have a chance for a storm or two. It will be a bit breezy at times in the Cascade gaps but winds are expected to remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for this time of year. 78 LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...May see some lingering showers/thunderstorms in the Wallowas Thursday night as an upper level trough exits to the east. Models in reasonable agreement developing yet another upper low near Vancouver Island during the day Friday with mostly dry westerly flow over the forecast area on Friday and Saturday. As the low/trough slowly shift east flow over the bulk of the region will turn southwesterly with a slight chance of mountain showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms near the Wallowas where marginal instability is a little stronger returning by Sunday afternoon/evening. With onshore flow through the extended would expect at least a weak marine layer to develop on the west side of the Cascades resulting in afternoon temperature gradients of 8 to 10 degrees and resulting late afternoon/early evening breezy winds near the Cascades. Afternoon highs Friday and Saturday will be around 5 degrees above normal, falling to near normal Sunday through the remainder of the forecast. Peck AVIATION...00Z TAFs...An area of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an upper level low pressure system over western Oregon. Convection will spread from south to north through the early evening. Brief heavy rain may reduce visibilities to MVFR at KDLS, KPDT, KYKM, KALW, and KPSC. Winds 8-15 kts will decrease overnight, but increase again by late morning/early afternoon to 10- 20 kts with higher gusts. Gusty and erratic winds will also be possible near any evening thunderstorms. Earle && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 54 78 51 77 / 60 10 10 10 ALW 59 83 56 82 / 40 10 10 10 PSC 62 84 58 83 / 40 10 20 0 YKM 57 81 55 82 / 40 20 20 10 HRI 59 84 56 83 / 60 10 10 0 ELN 56 74 54 76 / 30 20 20 10 RDM 47 73 44 74 / 60 10 0 10 LGD 54 74 50 73 / 50 10 10 10 GCD 51 77 47 76 / 40 10 10 10 DLS 59 77 57 79 / 60 10 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 75/74/81
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the region through tonight before sliding to the south and east. A cold front will move into the area on Tuesday, stalling just to our south on Wednesday. The stalled front will push northward as a warm front Thursday into Friday. Another cold front will cross the region over the weekend, followed by a return to high pressure for the start of the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Quiet night tonight as high pressure continues to build eastward into the mid-Atlantic. Forecast on track, so only minor adjustments are needed to the database. Winds will become light and variable as the boundary layer decouples. Lows will be seasonable in the low 60s north to upper 60s in the Philly metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Models are continuing to slow the chances for precipitation tomorrow associated with the shortwave trough that will slip southeastward across the Northeast. Thus, the first part of the day looks relatively similar to today with mostly clear skies in the morning. Temperatures will climb a little further than today, likely reaching or exceeding 90 at most locations. Latest look at several CAMs suggest showers and thunderstorms will begin to form across northeast PA early tomorrow afternoon, eventually forming a broken line. This line is forecast to move southward across southeastern PA and NJ through the afternoon and into the evening. Forecast CAPE values above 2000 J/kg will support thunderstorm development. However, lower shear values generally below 30 knots and lack of large-scale forcing will likely keep storms sub-severe. The chance of a severe storm is definitely non-zero, however. The best chances for thunderstorms look to center along and north of I-76/I-195. Note that there is a great deal of uncertainty in just how far southward the line of convection will reach with the ARW and RAP bringing the line through the Philly metro, while the NAM NEST suggests it may weaken before this. Will need to see if agreement is reached in future model runs. Kept a general chance for thunderstorms in the grids for now mostly along and north of I-76. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms almost daily. A cold front will drop down through the region Tuesday evening before settling just to the south of our area late Tuesday night or Wednesday. The boundary will wobble for a couple of days nearby and with several rounds of shortwaves moving across the Mid-Atlantic, we will see showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Best chances for any showers or thunderstorms looks to be closer to the actual boundary and across our southern areas, but with surface heating across our entire forecast area leading to some instability, we may see isolated ones pop up elsewhere. The stalled boundary starts to push northward on Thursday as a warm front and should push to our north by early Friday. This will put us fully in the warm sector and we will see continued chances for convection, especially as we seeing more warming occur at the surface. Additionally, dew points will also start to rise some more and it will feel a bit more humid, especially on Friday. With increased dew points and low level moisture, PWATs surge back around 2 inches and any storms will be able to produce heavy rainfall. Another front will cross the region later Saturday, bringing with it some more convection. Once the boundary passes offshore, we should have some slightly cooler and drier air arrive for Sunday. The front sags southward and should remain far enough away from the region that we remain dry for Sunday. However, some guidance indicates that the boundary stalls close enough to our area that low pressure forms along it and impacts the region into Monday whereas other guidance shows a return to high pressure for the new week. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight... VFR. Winds light and variable. Tuesday... VFR conditions expected for the morning and early afternoon with winds west-southwesterly at 5 to 10 kt. Tstms are possible in the late afternoon and evening, and have added a mention of thunder at all terminals to account for this, with timing to be refined as the threat becomes more clear. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light winds overnight become northwest around 5 knots or less. MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. South to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Today through Tuesday...sub SCA conditions with southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Outlook... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the outlook period. Tuesday night...Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday...Mainly southerly winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Saturday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rip Currents... With increasing west winds Tuesday afternoon, there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at New Jersey beaches. There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at Delaware beaches as winds will be lighter. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term... Short Term...Davis Long Term...Meola Aviation...Davis/Meola/O`Brien Marine...Davis/Meola/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .UPDATE... Convection has dissipated for the evening but will need to watch for redevelopment along and northwest of the I-30 Corridor which will include the northern third of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR where our inverted trough axis currently resides. The latest 00z NAM as well as the HRRR and HREF all hint at this possibility after midnight. Still dealing with some left over debris cloud cover across the region as well so have adjusted sky grids to account for this. Cannot rule out some patchy fog where rainfall occurred earlier today but nothing widespread is expected overnight towards the predawn hours on Tue. Forecast minimum temperatures are looking pretty good so did not make any changes in this department but did adjust hourly temp and dewpoint grids to mimic current trends. No other changes are necessary attm. Update out shortly...13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ AVIATION... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the LFK/TYR/GGG/SHV/TXK terminals will likely die off after 03z this evening. Handled this with VCTS for these terminal locations with TEMPO groups for TSRA, VSBY reduction, VRB wind gusts and lower ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through much of the evening. Overnight, will need to watch for the development of some fog at the MLU/TYR/GGG/LFK and ELD terminals. Could also see some nocturnal convection late tonight in the vicinity of the TXK terminal so made mention of this as well. In addition to the fog potential, may see MVFR/IFR ceilings develop at the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals through 02/14z. Any low clouds and or reductions in VSBY should lift and or scatter out by mid to late morning on Tue. Introduced VCTS once again by 02/18z at all terminal locations with the development for the development of scattered afternoon convection. South to southeast winds at or below 10kts overnight will prevail through the day Tuesday as well outside thunderstorm activity. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 90 73 88 / 10 20 20 40 MLU 72 92 73 90 / 10 20 10 40 DEQ 70 89 71 89 / 30 30 20 40 TXK 71 89 72 88 / 10 20 20 40 ELD 70 91 72 90 / 10 20 20 40 TYR 71 88 71 87 / 10 40 10 40 GGG 71 88 72 88 / 10 40 20 40 LFK 71 89 73 88 / 10 30 20 50 $$ 13/13