Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/01/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
615 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Temperatures have cooled significantly with the line of showers and storms that moved across the area. Enough cooling to cancel the heat advisory. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Convection has quickly reformed early this afternoon across eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin ahead of yet another short wave trough moving across the top of the upper level ridge. The lower levels of the atmosphere have not recovered quickly in the wake of the earlier morning convection, but MUCAPES are in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. The latest runs of the HRRR seem to have a good handle on this activity and continue to move it southeast along the edge of the MUCAPE gradient and it should clear the eastern parts of the area by late this afternoon. This activity should help to reinforce the synoptic front that looks to extend from southwest Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. This front is not expected to move much, if at all overnight, and likely will be the focus for additional development overnight. Several runs of the RAP have been showing a moderate band of frontogenesis to exist along the front. As the low level jet gets going and intersects the boundary, the RAP and HRRR all show a band of convection oriented from central Minnesota into southern Wisconsin, developing overnight. With precipitable water amounts near 2 inches and warm cloud depths of 4 km or so, concerned that this overnight activity will be heavy rain producers with the rain falling over ground that is already saturated by the rains of the last couple of days. A flash flood watch is looking more likely for areas generally along and north of Interstate 90. This activity should then begin to diminish/move off to the east after sunrise with the diurnal decay of the low level jet. Unfortunately, it does not look like the synoptic front is going to move much and should still be near the vicinity for Monday afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, the RAP is showing the moisture transport axis redeveloping back into the front over southern and central Minnesota with another round of convection forming. Along with the continued heavy rain threat, this activity could also have a damaging wind threat. ML CAPES may recover back into the 2000-3000 J/Kg range with the potential of 40 to 50 knots of shear in the 0-6 km layer. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 No large scale pattern change looks to occur over the upcoming week. A flat upper level ridge will remain over the central part of the country with troughing over the western conus and over central Canada. The two long wave troughs will push several short wave troughs across the flat ridge and over the Upper Midwest. The surface boundary will get pushed around some by convective complexes, but in the big picture, it will remain over the region. As the short wave troughs cross the region, they will interact with the front and likely cause additional convective complexes to form. This will necessitate the inclusion of rain chances everyday into next weekend. Depending on where the convective complexes form and how much rain is dropped, the concern for additional flooding remains elevated. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The afternoon line of convection has moved well south of both airports leaving behind VFR conditions. Watching more convection develop over South Dakota and how this will evolve as it moves east tonight. Several of the hi-res meso-scale models show this activity coming into the area during the overnight hours but differ on the longitudinal placement. Right now, the clustering of solutions would take this activity north of both airports. The hi-res ARW keeps bubbling some activity along the edge of the CAPE gradient through the evening as well. Until trends become clear, have include a VCSH for both airports starting mid-evening into Monday morning. Also stayed with VFR conditions for now but this would have to be taken down to at least MVFR if it looks like any convection will impact either airport overnight. Overall, a relatively low confidence forecast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
724 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... After monitoring the convective activity the past few hours, it appears there is something lacking for more widespread coverage. The latest RUC analysis has SBCAPE values around 3000, but the MLCAPE was only around 1000. The other parameters are similar to whats mentioned below. Although low level lapse rates are good with temps into the 90s, mid level lapse rates are poor. The outflows are just not generating widespread additional development. Went ahead and decreased rain chances through 7pm into the 40-54 percent range and made it only isolated thereafter. With precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, some areas will receive 1 to 2 inches of rain. 75 Previous short-term discussion:/Issued at 1:45 pm CT/ The main synoptic feature in the region is the upper low that has moved west over the past few days and now resides over southeast Texas. A diffuse low-level boundary was identified by the overnight shift across portions of our northern counties and this feature is continuing to encourage shower and thunderstorm development across the northern half of our county warning area (CWA) early this afternoon. The 30/12Z BMX sounding contained a fairly moist profile from the surface aloft to near 250 mb and resulted in a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 1.77 inches. In typical summertime fashion, winds in the low to mid levels are generally light and variable with speeds generally less than 25 kts. Modifying the surface layer of the sounding for forecast highs today generally yields surface- based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE) values near 2600 J/kg. Light winds aloft are resulting in very low bulk shear and helicity values in the low to mid levels. The absence of substantial dry air below 250 mb will help limit the microburst/downburst potential, however, some risk for small hail and gusty winds will remain with the stronger storms. There is also some limited potential for localized flooding primarily in low-lying, urban and poor drainage areas due to deep moisture aloft across the area along with slow storm motions expected to be generally less than 20 kts. This risk will be more notable in areas that experience cell mergers or repeated exposure to multiple storms. Expect the highest PoP`s to remain across our northern counties through mid afternoon followed by further convective development expected across our southern counties later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Activity will begin to wane after sunset with a few showers and storms persisting into the mid evening tonight. Temperatures will gradually fall through the 80`s after sunset and will bottom out in the upper 60`s far north while elsewhere readings in the lower 70`s are expected overnight. Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast as typical summertime conditions will persist. Heights aloft will continue to rise over the next few days with high temperatures expected to remain slightly above normal. Rich low-level moisture content will also persist and will contribute to heat index values in the triple digits for much of the upcoming work week. We will continue to monitor for the potential for reaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria in some areas from mid to late in the upcoming work week. 05 .LONG TERM... /Issued at 315am CT/ Monday through Sunday. The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t change much for this upcoming week with high pressure continuing to build across the Southeastern CONUS. This will lead to a gradual warming trend with scattered thunderstorms each afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could be on the stronger side, but without any upper level dynamics, I don`t expect anything severe. The bigger weather storyline will be the heat indices towards the middle and later part of the week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for this time of year across Central AL, but the more anomalous temperatures remain just to the south of our area through the week. However, low level specific humidity will be in the 99th percentile, which helps give some confidence to the heat index forecast. Current forecasts have heat indices in the triple digits for most locations all week, approaching 105 for some areas Wednesday through Saturday. Considering there will be many outdoor activities around the 4th of July, I`ll continue mentioning heat impacts in the hazardous weather outlook Wednesday through Friday. I will also add heat impacts for Saturday, though confidence is lower due to the upper level ridge beginning to flatten Saturday into Sunday, which could bring increased coverage of thunderstorms. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Outside of any convection, the period will be dominated by VFR conditions. The only blemish to the forecast time frame will be a brief period of possible fog around sunrise and the scattered thunderstorms again Monday afternoon. It appears the convection is on downturn much earlier tonight than the previous few nights. Kept a mention thunder at EET this evening the next hour or so and nothing at other terminals. The best chances on Monday afternoon will be north where the best deep layer moisture resides. PROB30 for the northern sites suffices for now. Fog has been tricky to pinpoint at a specific terminal and what category it drops too. At this time, will mention a brief period of MVFR at EET/ANB/ASN/MGM/TOI. Variable winds this evening quickly drop to near calm and become west northwest around 6kts Monday afternoon. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal through early in the next work week. Relative humidity values will bottom out in the 40 to 50 percent ranges each afternoon before recovery after dark. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and will persist into the evening each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next week. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 92 71 92 72 / 20 30 10 20 20 Anniston 69 93 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 20 Birmingham 71 93 74 94 75 / 20 30 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 71 94 74 95 75 / 20 30 10 20 20 Calera 70 92 73 93 74 / 60 20 10 20 20 Auburn 71 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 10 20 20 Montgomery 72 94 74 96 76 / 20 20 10 20 20 Troy 71 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 So far its quiet across the CWA as convection has to this point remained to the north, and over the mtns of Colorado. Latest HRRR still showing convection developing/moving in over the se Wy mtns by late afternoon and becoming most widespread across EC Wy into the northern Panhandle early this evening. Some heavy rain potential still exists with any storms as they will not be moving fast so will have to keep an eye on that. Activity clears out later tonight. Milder day across the plains Monday as a sfc front remains banked up against the mtns with another round of convection initiating over the mtns in the afternoon. Not as much instability though and shear will be less so severe potential looks fairly low. Similar setup again for Tuesday with lee troughing over the high plains helping to focus convection. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Overall pattern changes little through next weekend with weak disturbances moving by and allowing for daily chances for showers and storms. Temperatures look to be a bit below seasonal averages through the period with a cooler air mass settling southward out of central Canada into the northern part of the country. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 For the 00Z aviation package, some of the model guidance is still bringing down ceilings to IFR ranges for Chadron and Alliance after 09Z. Surface dewpoints still running high that area and forecast soundings show indications of a low stratus deck towards morning, so we went with persistence that area and brought ceilings down again at Chadron toward morning, and think tonight there is a bit higher probability for Alliance, Scottsbluff and potentially Sidney. Otherwise, we don`t expect a great coverage of thunderstorms this evening given instability trends but have kept vcnty and periods of showers and thunderstorms going for Cheyenne and Laramie, as well as Sidney unti 05Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low this week with mild to warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, with conditions remaining non-critical. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Still monitoring the North Platte River at Saratoga, but the river has finally fallen below action stage. Additional rainfall and snowmelt over the next several days could bring levels back to action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to stay to the east of the mountain ranges. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...JG FIRE WEATHER...RE HYDROLOGY...CW
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
701 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Chances for convection, including attendant threats of severe storms and heavy rain, are the primary focus through the short term. As of midday, weak convergence/surface boundary was located a bit farther south than forecast, extending from Lake Andes, to near Madison SD and Pipestone. By 20Z, an outflow boundary from early morning MN/WI MCS had pushed to near the Buffalo Ridge, triggering an isolated severe storm near/just east of Brewster MN. The outflow is expected to make very little if any further progress as it encounters the rise of the Buffalo Ridge, and model consensus shows primary boundary stalling near I-90 through this evening, before retreating northward again in response to mid-upper wave approaching central and northeast South Dakota. Despite the southward shift in the low-level boundary early this afternoon, models continue to trend greater focus of storms tonight northward, with aforementioned wave projected to track farther north than indicated at this time yesterday. Thermal profiles remain at least weakly capped to surface based activity over our forecast area prior to approach of the wave this evening, and even then, given the expected northward track of the wave, storms more likely along the elevated boundary in our far northern CWA than along the surface boundary south of Hwy 14. Exception seen in recent HRRR runs, which indicate potential for surface based storms developing in north central Nebraska early evening, then tracking north-northeast along the retreating boundary into our western counties. If this activity materializes, this should be our greatest threat for severe weather, as shear begins to increase in our far west this evening with the approaching wave, and also enhanced by the low level convergence. Confidence not high in this development, as models not showing a great deal of run-to-run continuity in how this will play out prior to 04Z-06Z. Will limit pops to mid-chance range for now, with low pops across southwest Minnesota near lingering outflow boundary as well. Greater chances of rain should come during the overnight hours, as the upper wave slides east through northeast South Dakota. Decent model consensus confining the bulk of this nighttime activity along and north of Highway 14 corridor, along elevated boundary around 800mb or higher based on forecast soundings. Still looking at very high precipitable water values for overnight storms to work with, with values nearing 2 inches along that corridor near and north of Highway 14, so heavy rain will more likely be the greater threat during the overnight. For Monday, looking at coverage/intensity diminishing through the morning as the upper wave slides off to the east, but low level boundaries will remain behind, of course. Location of boundaries will be critical to development later in the day, and this is area of greatest uncertainty. At this time, favored location looks to be near a Tyndall-Sioux Falls-Tracy MN line, placing some portion of our CWA in a better location for isolated severe storms. Shear near and north of the boundary is more favorable than we have seen in our area in recent days beneath the dominant ridge, and lift should be enhanced by a stronger wave seen in both the GFS and NAM sliding into the region in the late afternoon/evening. Although instability and shear are somewhat disjointed, with greater instability south of the boundary, and greater shear along and north, cannot argue with Slight Risk outlined by SPC in Day 2 outlook. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Monday evening will see a continued threat of isolated severe storms and heavy rain, and although exact location of greatest threat is uncertain, model consensus favors central to southeast portions of the area, as an upper wave drags the surface boundary southeast toward northwest Iowa in the evening. We lose the influence of the upper wave after 06Z as it slides east of the forecast area, so would expect intensity and coverage to gradually wane during the latter half of the night. Isolated strong to severe storms possible early-mid evening, with MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg south of the boundary, and marginal shear near the boundary, supportive of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Deep moisture with precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches and warm environment also supportive of heavy rainfall rates with individual storms, and highlight by WPC in Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook also looks reasonable. Remainder of the upcoming holiday week continues to look unsettled, with numerous impulses traversing through quasi-zonal flow aloft, and potential for boundaries wavering across the region. Nearly impossible to pinpoint any specific time-frame for more favored rain/storm chances in this pattern, so will let the broad chance pops from the blended models continue to ride. The good news is 850mb temperatures appear to settle back into the upper teens to near 20C for much of the week ahead, so daytime temperatures should be closer to seasonal normals in the 80s for early July, perhaps even a shade on the cool side by next weekend. Dew points, and likewise overnight lows, will remain on the humid/warm side in the 60s through at least Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Relatively low confidence aviation forecast regarding convective chances through the next 24 hours. Best chance to impact TAF site appears to be KHON mid-late hours this evening, 03Z-06Z, which could be accompanied by strong wind gusts. Isolated thunder is possible outside this window, but confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. Chances for thunder at KFSD/KSUX much lower through tonight, with chances increasing after 18Z Monday. However, still too much uncertainty in timing/location of Monday afternoon convection at this range to include in TAF. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-056-060>071. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ080-089-097-098. IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 505 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for a few showers and thunderstorms developing in northern Yuma County and extreme northwestern Dundy County. These storms should be short- lived and no severe weather is expected at this time. Also raised low temperatures Monday morning slightly as well as lowered high temperatures Monday slightly. Increasing scattered cloud cover Monday afternoon leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday evening will help keep temperatures a tad cooler tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a 594 DM H5 ridge remains centered over the Tri State area, leading to widespread clear skies. At the surface, frontal zone stretches from northeast Colorado into southeast South Dakota. To the south of the front, very warm conditions continue with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s were fairly widespread. Primary forecast concerns for the next 36 hours will remained centered on temperatures and precipitation potential. For late afternoon and evening, area of convergence along front just to the northwest of Yuma county. While inhibition should be overcome over the next few hours, storm motion will generally be along frontal zone so do not have much confidence storms will make it very far into the area, but think there will be a 3 hour window where an isolated storm may form, but overall probabilities will be low. Precipitation threat will once again increase during the late afternoon period on Monday as front sags to the south and bisects the area by 21 UTC. Mixed layer inhibition falls to under 25 J/kg by afternoon and with persistent convergence along the front expect this area to be focus area for storms late in the afternoon. Shear profiles remain fairly weak so expect a somewhat limited severe threat, but high PW`s and very slow storm motions will bring an increased flash flood threat. Depending on strength of convergence along front and slow storm motion, could potentially see a favorable set up for landspouts late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow based on cooling temps aloft, but with the exception of northwestern zones do not expect any big relief from heat just yet. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An area of upper level low pressure cuts off the main area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. from high pressure over the southwestern U.S. Monday night. A closed low over south-central Canada helps sustain the low pressure across the central U.S. Another trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday. As the closed low moves eastward, high pressure rebuilds over the U.S. south of a line from southern California northeast to southern Maine. The trough over the Pacific Northwest weakens as high pressure builds over the southeastern U.S. and becomes a shortwave. The weakening shortwave moves across the northern U.S. Friday through Sunday as another trough forms over the Pacific Northwest. Sunday, flow aloft becomes mostly zonal over much of the U.S. Continuing the trend, surface lows set up along the Front Range in eastern CO throughout the extended forecast period. These lows will help contribute to any precipitation received in the Tri-State area over the next week. Above normal precipitable water values are expected across much of the Tri-State region as well providing sufficient moisture to the area. With a weaker ridge, temperatures should be slightly lower than they have been the last several days. A cold front is expected to pass through the area Friday evening aiding in temperature reprieve as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 505 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period at both KGLD and KMCK. Gusty southerly or southeasterly winds to around 25 kts under clear skies are expected through this evening at both sites. While winds will die down overnight, some wind gusts to around 18 kts or so will stick around at KGLD. A few high clouds may spread over both sites overnight, but no major impacts are expected. Southerly or southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 kts will continue through Monday afternoon with some gusty winds possible up to almost 20 kts at times. Some shallower scattered clouds around 10 kft are expected to develop over both sites in the late afternoon hours Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more likely closer to Monday evening, but have left any TSRA mention out for 00Z update. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PATTON SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...NEWMAN AVIATION...PATTON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
703 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a couple areas of thunderstorm activity early this afternoon, namely the ongoing severe mcs over northern Illinois, and another complex over western to central Wisconsin. The northern edge of the severe mcs is exiting east-central Wisconsin while the strongest convection within the secondary thunderstorm complex remains west of Marathon and Wood counties. This storm activity is firing north of a warm front which extends from low pressure over eastern South Dakota to northeast Illinois early this afternoon. Further to the northwest, a cold front resides from northwest Minnesota to central South Dakota. As this cold front moves into northern Wisconsin tonight, thunderstorm potential remains the main forecast concern. Tonight...High resolution models are pointing towards a lull in the thunderstorm activity this evening as the atmosphere will be worked over by the couple rounds of convection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to fire along the cold front over South Dakota and Minnesota, and possibly along the warm front over southwest Wisconsin during the overnight hours. Some of these storms may move into central WI late, but it is possible that most of the thunderstorm activity will hold off until Monday morning. A few strong storms are possible if they move into central WI and elevated instability moves in from the west. Low temps will mainly fall into the middle to upper 60s. Monday...The cold front will gradually sink south across northern Wisconsin. Some indications that ongoing thunderstorms from overnight will move into north-central WI during the morning hours. If the precip misses central and east-central WI in the morning, then instability will have a chance to climb to 1k-2k j/kg during the afternoon generally south of Hwy 29, where deep layer shear is estimated to range from 30 to 35 kts. With convergence via cold front or outflow from morning thunderstorms and some minor height falls, strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible on Monday afternoon. SPC has central and east-central WI in a marginal risk. Dropped high temps across far northern WI where rain is expected early in the day. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Precipitation trends will be the main forecast concerns. Weak low pressure is expected to track east along a stationary frontal boundary into central WI Monday night into Tuesday. The threat of heavy rainfall and possibly severe weather should return as this occurs. Will carry likely POPs across part of the area Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, though models offer varying ideas on where a band of heavy rainfall will set up, so later adjustments will certainly need to be made. After the low shifts east, the front is expected to drop south of the region again Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should result in a decrease in the precipitation, though confidence is too low to go with a completely dry forecast. Precipitation chances will continue at times through late in the work week, as frontal systems continue to impact the region. Forecast confidence deteriorates by the weekend, as models disagree on when a Canadian high pressure system will arrive. Did not stray from the blended forecast during this period. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 During the past 12 hours, two convective complexes have moved southeast across central and western Wisconsin and have left extensive upper-level cirrus debris in their wake. In addition, the atmosphere has been worked over pretty good by these early convective systems which has significantly stabilized the atmosphere and therefore reduced the probabilities for additional robust thunderstorm redevelopment during the overnight hours across most of the forecast area. This seems to be supported by the last short-term model guidance which suggests any additional shower or thunderstorm activity will likely not return to the forecast area until after about 12 UTC Monday. Thus, primarily VFR conditions can be expected overnight. Convective activity now developing over SE South Dakota and SW Minnesota may eventually work its way into central Wisconsin, perhaps impacting AUW and CWA TAFS sites roughly between 12 UTC and 16 UTC but confidence is low on movement and intensity of this activity Sunday morning. Otherwise a cold front will slowly drop southward into northern and central Wisconsin during the day on Monday which will likely increase the chances for more widespread shower and thundertstorm activity later on Monday afternoon into the evening as the atmosphere destabilizes. This activity will likely be associated with MVFR cigs and vsbys. However, again confidence remains low on location and timing of this activity later on Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......ESB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 High pressure is expected to remain across the lower Mississippi River Valley through the middle of the week. This will result in a warm and humid southwest flow of air to Central Indiana. Meanwhile upper level weather disturbance is expected to spill across Indiana from the upper midwest Tonight and on Monday. This will result in chances for shower and storms tonight and through the start of the Holiday work week. Chances for showers and storms will persist all week across Central Indiana as the warm and humid air mass remains in place and showers and storms will remain possible. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place across Missouri. For the moment this was resulting in NW flow across Indiana. However the air mass across the area remained very humid with dew points in the lower 70s SW of I-74. NE of I-74...dewpoints were mainly in the 60s. GOES16 shows a CU field developing along and south of the dewpoint boundary. Forecast soundings late this afternoon reveal a minimal CAP in place...along with convective temperatures near 90 and CAPE over 3000 J/KG. Pwats appear over 1.6 inches. HRRR shows TSRA development along and south of the dew point boundary late this afternoon. Given the isolated storms yesterday and the more favorable set-up today...shower and storm development late this afternoon and earl evening seems reasonable. Will include best pops within the higher dew point area this evening. Later this evening and overnight the short wave over Wisconsin is poised to push southeast across Indiana. This upper forcing and the warm air mass in place results in favorable conditions for more showers and storms. Time heights shows a wave of lift followed by quick subsidence overnight...hinting at a wave of storms. Thus will again ramp up precipitation amounts overnight. Regarding lows...will stick at or above expected dewpoints...which cold result in some cooler lows overnight on the NE side of the dew point boundary than we have seen the past few nights. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 GFS and NAM suggest the strong ridging aloft to flatten and weaken on Monday through Wednesday. This will allow the upper pattern to once again influence Indiana/s weather the next several days...bringing in a few short waves close to Indiana. The first looks to slowly passion Monday...before more upper support lingers in the area on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Daytime heating on each afternoon also looks to provide an additional support. Forecast soundings each afternoon show minimal to no CAP in place...along with CAPE each afternoon over 2000 J/KG and high pwats over 1.7 inches. Thus will need to include pops each day as the heating...moist air mass...instability and marginal upper support all points to afternoon and evening showers and storms through Wednesday. Given the little change in air mass...will trend temps toward persistence through the period. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 ECMWF differs from the GFS in that it keep mid level heights a bit higher than the GFS. The GFS is trending back to the northern parts of the southeast ridge which places central IN back into that occasional rainfall pattern just after the 4th of July though the weekend. And, it look like that the National Blend follows along with that idea of keeping chances of thunderstorms in the forecast from Thursday afternoon on. Looking at the GFS Ensemble looks similar in only that the ridge retrogrades into the Plains which opens up that westerly/slight northwest pattern over the area, again giving the area that chance for occasional thunderstorms at the end of the week into the weekend. Averages are mid 60s for lows and mid 80s for highs, and it look that the area will be just above that through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 01/06Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1140 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 VFR will be the prevailing flight category for most of the TAF sites through the TAF period. Did insert a tempo for MVFR fog early this morning at KHUF and KBMG, which both received ample rainfall Sunday evening. But, confidence is low in fog formation. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms over central Illinois will have to continue to be monitored over the next several hours, but current thinking is that the bulk of the activity should stay west of the TAF sites. Monday afternoon and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return, but confidence is still not high enough to pinpoint exact timing of any storms that could form. Winds through the period will generally be light and variable. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drift south across the region tonight before sliding into the Carolinas Monday. High pressure follows the front resulting in slightly drier weather into Tuesday. The high should weaken and pass offshore by midweek allowing for a return of heat, and humidity along with daily rounds of showers or storms into much of the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday... Showers and storms declining as cloud tops warming on IR satellite, and less instability. Still kept threat of a few showers til midnight across the NC mountains/Grayson Highlands. Otherwise, not much change in the forecast from previous one. Previous discussion from early this evening... Updated forecast to reflect current radar trends and high-res models, which deflect most of the storm activity over the mountains of WV into the NC mountains early this evening with possible renegade storms firing up in southside VA into the NC piedmont, but mostly seeing activity waning after 9pm. Expect clearing skies and fog in the mountains late tonight. Previous discussion from early this afternoon... An upper level trough will dig southeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight into Monday. A cold front will drop south across our region tonight and stall across South Carolina Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along this boundary. Some of the storms could contain gusty winds and heavy rains. SPC Day One Convective outlook places marginal risk of severe weather across the southern half of our forecast area. The potential for multicell clusters with locally damaging winds is the primary hazard. Both the Namnest and HRRR try to develop convection removed from downsloping winds in the east with the better instability which move east southeast tonight. At the same time, better storm cover in the west is forecasted by the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM and HiresW-ARW connected the two areas of convection. The overall general weather is the same, scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southeast across our region this afternoon into this evening. Expect most thunderstorms and showers to fade or push south after sunset as dry/cool advection kicks in behind the front overnight. With light winds allowed for some river valley fog tonight into Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains to upper 60s in the piedmont. Behind the front, high pressure will build in across our region on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will vary from the upper 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia will be under surface high pressure Monday night then surface and low level winds winds will gradually become west to southwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the moves offshore then weakens. Probability of showers and thunderstorms will return to the area by Tuesday afternoon. Larger areal coverage of thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Air mass warms back up above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with models showing the potential for 850MB temperatures to approach +22. Will stay close to warmer guidance Tuesday through Wednesday for both maximum and minimum temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1210 PM EDT Sunday... Starting this period with broad upper ridging over the southeast United States. Any short waves around the northern edge of the ridge would enhance the coverage of thunderstorms but placing the timing and location at this time frame is low confidence. By the end of the week a more organized cold front will move south through the eastern United States. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the front. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be more extensive ahead of and along the boundary, then a cooler air mass will cover the area post-frontal. Timing of when this boundary comes through is questionable. No major changes needed for this part of the forecast. Will have temperatures trending cooler through the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 710 PM EDT Sunday... Aside from possible shower at BLF through 01z, expect rest of the terminals to be rain free. VFR conditions expected this evening, then a bit of fog at BLF/LWB overnight from about 08-12z. Good flying conditions under high pressure on tap on Monday with northwest winds on the order of 5-10 kts during the afternoon. Medium confidence on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall VFR conditions expected Monday night into Tuesday with only isolated afternoon western mountain showers/storms possible. This followed by an increase in clouds including showers and storms for Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure exits. Appears best expanse of convection will be on Thursday when periods of MVFR/IFR could occur with coverage likely less Wednesday when only periods of MVFR appear more likely. Otrw looking at late night/early morning fog/stratus to return by midweek with possible sub-VFR at a few terminals. The chance for IFR convection increases Friday and Saturday especially across the western mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
922 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 .UPDATE... Still dealing with some isolated showers across Deep East Texas and into the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma. The convection to our northwest should continue dissipating with the loss of heating and a stabilizing boundary layer but we may see the convection continue and increase in coverage after midnight due in part to a persistent inverted trough axis which as of this evening was located across S TX into SE TX and NW LA. The latest 00z NAM and HREF output shows renewed development after midnight towards sunrise across our southwest half while the HRRR is a little more bullish on this possibility. For the update, kept slight chance pops going areawide through midnight and then tapered pops back to slight chance and chance variety across our southwest half only. Fcst temps are in the ballpark so did not make any changes otherwise. Updated package out shortly...13. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ AVIATION... Another day, another afternoon of dealing with pesky afternoon and evening pop-up convection. For the 00z TAF package, started most terminal locations off with VCTS, running that for 2 to 4 hours with some TEMPO groups mixed in at the ELD/MLU/TXK and LFK terminals for stronger vrb wind gusts, reduced vsbys and lower ceilings where convection this evening is a pretty good bet based on current radar trends. Otherwise, kept VFR conditions prevailing through much of the evening with the possibility of MVFR or IFR ceilings developing before sunrise across our NE TX terminal locations along with possible reduced vsbys. Short term progs, along with the HREF and HRRR suggest the possibility of convection developing near or shortly after sunrise in the vicinity of our NE TX terminal locations with that possibility continuing through the daytime hours. Thus have prevailed TYR/GGG/LFK and SHV with VCTS beginning as early as 14-15z with other terminal locations prevailing VCTS in the 17-18z timeframe. Look for variable winds mostly below 10kts outside of convection with variable to southeast winds at or below 10kts on Monday, again, outside of convection. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 87 71 91 / 20 50 20 30 MLU 72 91 72 92 / 20 20 20 20 DEQ 70 86 70 89 / 20 50 30 20 TXK 70 86 71 90 / 20 50 20 20 ELD 70 89 71 92 / 20 30 20 20 TYR 70 85 71 88 / 20 50 20 20 GGG 70 86 71 89 / 20 50 20 30 LFK 71 87 71 91 / 30 30 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture and above average heat will keep a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast the next couple of days. This will be followed by a drop in thunderstorm chances until late in the week and into next weekend when moisture returns. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued across parts of southeast Arizona this afternoon. Latest HRRR solution suggested that this activity will dissipate near sundown and not linger into the late night hours like yesterday. Models continued to suggest that enough moisture will linger the next couple of days to support at least isolated showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm chances drop off until later in the week and into the next weekend when moisture returns to far southeast Arizona. In the meantime, high temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal before lowering to more seasonable readings by Friday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA, primarily along an axis extending from KOLS toward the NNE. SCT-BKN cloud bases 10-15k ft MSL through the period. Precipitation dissipates in the early evening, beginning again tomorrow afternoon SE of KTUS. Surface winds SWLY-NWLY 8-12 kts with brief gusts to around 30 kts in and around TSRA. Winds decrease light and variable this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue this week, though convection will be high-based resulting in gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. Aside from the higher terrain, wetting rains will be hard to come by in the valleys until the surface moistens up more. Most activity remains southeast of Tucson and up around the White Mountains. Deeper moisture helps to expand the areal coverage by next weekend, with increasing thunderstorm chances. Afternoon breezes strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly in the Upper Gila River Valley and western Pima County. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at