Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/01/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
615 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Temperatures have cooled significantly with the line of showers
and storms that moved across the area. Enough cooling to cancel
the heat advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Convection has quickly reformed early this afternoon across
eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin ahead of yet another
short wave trough moving across the top of the upper level ridge.
The lower levels of the atmosphere have not recovered quickly in
the wake of the earlier morning convection, but MUCAPES are in
the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. The latest runs of the HRRR seem to have
a good handle on this activity and continue to move it southeast
along the edge of the MUCAPE gradient and it should clear the
eastern parts of the area by late this afternoon.
This activity should help to reinforce the synoptic front that
looks to extend from southwest Minnesota into southern Wisconsin.
This front is not expected to move much, if at all overnight, and
likely will be the focus for additional development overnight.
Several runs of the RAP have been showing a moderate band of
frontogenesis to exist along the front. As the low level jet gets
going and intersects the boundary, the RAP and HRRR all show a
band of convection oriented from central Minnesota into southern
Wisconsin, developing overnight. With precipitable water amounts
near 2 inches and warm cloud depths of 4 km or so, concerned that
this overnight activity will be heavy rain producers with the rain
falling over ground that is already saturated by the rains of the
last couple of days. A flash flood watch is looking more likely
for areas generally along and north of Interstate 90. This
activity should then begin to diminish/move off to the east after
sunrise with the diurnal decay of the low level jet.
Unfortunately, it does not look like the synoptic front is going
to move much and should still be near the vicinity for Monday
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, the RAP is showing the
moisture transport axis redeveloping back into the front over
southern and central Minnesota with another round of convection
forming. Along with the continued heavy rain threat, this activity
could also have a damaging wind threat. ML CAPES may recover back
into the 2000-3000 J/Kg range with the potential of 40 to 50 knots
of shear in the 0-6 km layer.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
No large scale pattern change looks to occur over the upcoming
week. A flat upper level ridge will remain over the central part
of the country with troughing over the western conus and over
central Canada. The two long wave troughs will push several short
wave troughs across the flat ridge and over the Upper Midwest. The
surface boundary will get pushed around some by convective
complexes, but in the big picture, it will remain over the region.
As the short wave troughs cross the region, they will interact
with the front and likely cause additional convective complexes to
form. This will necessitate the inclusion of rain chances everyday
into next weekend. Depending on where the convective complexes
form and how much rain is dropped, the concern for additional
flooding remains elevated.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
The afternoon line of convection has moved well south of both
airports leaving behind VFR conditions. Watching more convection
develop over South Dakota and how this will evolve as it moves
east tonight. Several of the hi-res meso-scale models show this
activity coming into the area during the overnight hours but
differ on the longitudinal placement. Right now, the clustering of
solutions would take this activity north of both airports. The
hi-res ARW keeps bubbling some activity along the edge of the CAPE
gradient through the evening as well. Until trends become clear,
have include a VCSH for both airports starting mid-evening into
Monday morning. Also stayed with VFR conditions for now but this
would have to be taken down to at least MVFR if it looks like any
convection will impact either airport overnight. Overall, a
relatively low confidence forecast.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
724 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
After monitoring the convective activity the past few hours, it
appears there is something lacking for more widespread coverage.
The latest RUC analysis has SBCAPE values around 3000, but the
MLCAPE was only around 1000. The other parameters are similar to
whats mentioned below. Although low level lapse rates are good
with temps into the 90s, mid level lapse rates are poor. The
outflows are just not generating widespread additional
development. Went ahead and decreased rain chances through 7pm
into the 40-54 percent range and made it only isolated thereafter.
With precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, some areas
will receive 1 to 2 inches of rain.
75
Previous short-term discussion:/Issued at 1:45 pm CT/
The main synoptic feature in the region is the upper low that has
moved west over the past few days and now resides over southeast
Texas. A diffuse low-level boundary was identified by the
overnight shift across portions of our northern counties and this
feature is continuing to encourage shower and thunderstorm
development across the northern half of our county warning area
(CWA) early this afternoon.
The 30/12Z BMX sounding contained a fairly moist profile from the
surface aloft to near 250 mb and resulted in a precipitable water
(PWAT) value of 1.77 inches. In typical summertime fashion, winds
in the low to mid levels are generally light and variable with
speeds generally less than 25 kts. Modifying the surface layer of
the sounding for forecast highs today generally yields surface-
based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE) values near
2600 J/kg. Light winds aloft are resulting in very low bulk shear
and helicity values in the low to mid levels.
The absence of substantial dry air below 250 mb will help limit
the microburst/downburst potential, however, some risk for small
hail and gusty winds will remain with the stronger storms. There
is also some limited potential for localized flooding primarily in
low-lying, urban and poor drainage areas due to deep moisture
aloft across the area along with slow storm motions expected to be
generally less than 20 kts. This risk will be more notable in
areas that experience cell mergers or repeated exposure to
multiple storms.
Expect the highest PoP`s to remain across our northern counties
through mid afternoon followed by further convective development
expected across our southern counties later this afternoon and
into the evening hours. Activity will begin to wane after sunset
with a few showers and storms persisting into the mid evening
tonight.
Temperatures will gradually fall through the 80`s after sunset
and will bottom out in the upper 60`s far north while elsewhere
readings in the lower 70`s are expected overnight.
Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast as typical
summertime conditions will persist. Heights aloft will continue to
rise over the next few days with high temperatures expected to
remain slightly above normal. Rich low-level moisture content will
also persist and will contribute to heat index values in the
triple digits for much of the upcoming work week. We will continue
to monitor for the potential for reaching or exceeding heat
advisory criteria in some areas from mid to late in the upcoming
work week.
05
.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 315am CT/
Monday through Sunday.
The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t change much for this
upcoming week with high pressure continuing to build across the
Southeastern CONUS. This will lead to a gradual warming trend with
scattered thunderstorms each afternoon. A few of these
thunderstorms could be on the stronger side, but without any upper
level dynamics, I don`t expect anything severe. The bigger
weather storyline will be the heat indices towards the middle and
later part of the week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal
for this time of year across Central AL, but the more anomalous
temperatures remain just to the south of our area through the
week. However, low level specific humidity will be in the 99th
percentile, which helps give some confidence to the heat index
forecast. Current forecasts have heat indices in the triple digits
for most locations all week, approaching 105 for some areas
Wednesday through Saturday. Considering there will be many outdoor
activities around the 4th of July, I`ll continue mentioning heat
impacts in the hazardous weather outlook Wednesday through Friday.
I will also add heat impacts for Saturday, though confidence is
lower due to the upper level ridge beginning to flatten Saturday
into Sunday, which could bring increased coverage of
thunderstorms.
25/Owen
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
Outside of any convection, the period will be dominated by VFR
conditions. The only blemish to the forecast time frame will be a
brief period of possible fog around sunrise and the scattered
thunderstorms again Monday afternoon.
It appears the convection is on downturn much earlier tonight than
the previous few nights. Kept a mention thunder at EET this
evening the next hour or so and nothing at other terminals. The
best chances on Monday afternoon will be north where the best deep
layer moisture resides. PROB30 for the northern sites suffices for
now. Fog has been tricky to pinpoint at a specific terminal and
what category it drops too. At this time, will mention a brief
period of MVFR at EET/ANB/ASN/MGM/TOI.
Variable winds this evening quickly drop to near calm and become
west northwest around 6kts Monday afternoon.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal
through early in the next work week. Relative humidity values will
bottom out in the 40 to 50 percent ranges each afternoon before
recovery after dark. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop by early afternoon and will persist into the evening each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
next week.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 69 92 71 92 72 / 20 30 10 20 20
Anniston 69 93 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 20
Birmingham 71 93 74 94 75 / 20 30 10 20 20
Tuscaloosa 71 94 74 95 75 / 20 30 10 20 20
Calera 70 92 73 93 74 / 60 20 10 20 20
Auburn 71 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 10 20 20
Montgomery 72 94 74 96 76 / 20 20 10 20 20
Troy 71 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 20 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
So far its quiet across the CWA as convection has to this point remained
to the north, and over the mtns of Colorado. Latest HRRR still showing
convection developing/moving in over the se Wy mtns by late afternoon
and becoming most widespread across EC Wy into the northern Panhandle
early this evening. Some heavy rain potential still exists with
any storms as they will not be moving fast so will have to keep an
eye on that. Activity clears out later tonight. Milder day across
the plains Monday as a sfc front remains banked up against the
mtns with another round of convection initiating over the mtns in
the afternoon. Not as much instability though and shear will be
less so severe potential looks fairly low. Similar setup again for
Tuesday with lee troughing over the high plains helping to focus
convection.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Overall pattern changes little through next weekend with weak
disturbances moving by and allowing for daily chances for showers
and storms. Temperatures look to be a bit below seasonal averages
through the period with a cooler air mass settling southward out
of central Canada into the northern part of the country.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
For the 00Z aviation package, some of the model guidance is still
bringing down ceilings to IFR ranges for Chadron and Alliance
after 09Z. Surface dewpoints still running high that area and
forecast soundings show indications of a low stratus deck towards
morning, so we went with persistence that area and brought
ceilings down again at Chadron toward morning, and think tonight
there is a bit higher probability for Alliance, Scottsbluff and
potentially Sidney. Otherwise, we don`t expect a great coverage of
thunderstorms this evening given instability trends but have kept
vcnty and periods of showers and thunderstorms going for Cheyenne
and Laramie, as well as Sidney unti 05Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low this week with
mild to warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with conditions remaining non-critical.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Still monitoring the North Platte River at Saratoga, but the river
has finally fallen below action stage. Additional rainfall and
snowmelt over the next several days could bring levels back to
action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to stay to the east of
the mountain ranges.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...CW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
701 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Chances for convection, including attendant threats of severe storms
and heavy rain, are the primary focus through the short term. As of
midday, weak convergence/surface boundary was located a bit farther
south than forecast, extending from Lake Andes, to near Madison
SD and Pipestone. By 20Z, an outflow boundary from early morning
MN/WI MCS had pushed to near the Buffalo Ridge, triggering an
isolated severe storm near/just east of Brewster MN. The outflow
is expected to make very little if any further progress as it
encounters the rise of the Buffalo Ridge, and model consensus
shows primary boundary stalling near I-90 through this evening,
before retreating northward again in response to mid-upper wave
approaching central and northeast South Dakota.
Despite the southward shift in the low-level boundary early this
afternoon, models continue to trend greater focus of storms tonight
northward, with aforementioned wave projected to track farther north
than indicated at this time yesterday. Thermal profiles remain at
least weakly capped to surface based activity over our forecast area
prior to approach of the wave this evening, and even then, given the
expected northward track of the wave, storms more likely along the
elevated boundary in our far northern CWA than along the surface
boundary south of Hwy 14. Exception seen in recent HRRR runs, which
indicate potential for surface based storms developing in north
central Nebraska early evening, then tracking north-northeast along
the retreating boundary into our western counties. If this activity
materializes, this should be our greatest threat for severe weather,
as shear begins to increase in our far west this evening with the
approaching wave, and also enhanced by the low level convergence.
Confidence not high in this development, as models not showing a
great deal of run-to-run continuity in how this will play out prior
to 04Z-06Z. Will limit pops to mid-chance range for now, with low
pops across southwest Minnesota near lingering outflow boundary as
well.
Greater chances of rain should come during the overnight hours, as
the upper wave slides east through northeast South Dakota. Decent
model consensus confining the bulk of this nighttime activity along
and north of Highway 14 corridor, along elevated boundary around
800mb or higher based on forecast soundings. Still looking at very
high precipitable water values for overnight storms to work with,
with values nearing 2 inches along that corridor near and north of
Highway 14, so heavy rain will more likely be the greater threat
during the overnight.
For Monday, looking at coverage/intensity diminishing through the
morning as the upper wave slides off to the east, but low level
boundaries will remain behind, of course. Location of boundaries
will be critical to development later in the day, and this is area
of greatest uncertainty. At this time, favored location looks to be
near a Tyndall-Sioux Falls-Tracy MN line, placing some portion of
our CWA in a better location for isolated severe storms. Shear near
and north of the boundary is more favorable than we have seen in our
area in recent days beneath the dominant ridge, and lift should be
enhanced by a stronger wave seen in both the GFS and NAM sliding
into the region in the late afternoon/evening. Although instability
and shear are somewhat disjointed, with greater instability south of
the boundary, and greater shear along and north, cannot argue with
Slight Risk outlined by SPC in Day 2 outlook.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Monday evening will see a continued threat of isolated severe storms
and heavy rain, and although exact location of greatest threat is
uncertain, model consensus favors central to southeast portions of
the area, as an upper wave drags the surface boundary southeast
toward northwest Iowa in the evening. We lose the influence of the
upper wave after 06Z as it slides east of the forecast area, so
would expect intensity and coverage to gradually wane during the
latter half of the night. Isolated strong to severe storms possible
early-mid evening, with MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg south of the
boundary, and marginal shear near the boundary, supportive of large
hail and isolated damaging winds. Deep moisture with precipitable
water values exceeding 2 inches and warm environment also supportive
of heavy rainfall rates with individual storms, and highlight by WPC
in Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook also looks reasonable.
Remainder of the upcoming holiday week continues to look unsettled,
with numerous impulses traversing through quasi-zonal flow aloft,
and potential for boundaries wavering across the region. Nearly
impossible to pinpoint any specific time-frame for more favored
rain/storm chances in this pattern, so will let the broad chance
pops from the blended models continue to ride.
The good news is 850mb temperatures appear to settle back into the
upper teens to near 20C for much of the week ahead, so daytime
temperatures should be closer to seasonal normals in the 80s for
early July, perhaps even a shade on the cool side by next weekend.
Dew points, and likewise overnight lows, will remain on the
humid/warm side in the 60s through at least Thursday/Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Relatively low confidence aviation forecast regarding convective
chances through the next 24 hours. Best chance to impact TAF site
appears to be KHON mid-late hours this evening, 03Z-06Z, which
could be accompanied by strong wind gusts. Isolated thunder is
possible outside this window, but confidence too low to include
in TAF at this time. Chances for thunder at KFSD/KSUX much lower
through tonight, with chances increasing after 18Z Monday.
However, still too much uncertainty in timing/location of Monday
afternoon convection at this range to include in TAF.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-056-060>071.
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ080-089-097-098.
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for a few
showers and thunderstorms developing in northern Yuma County and
extreme northwestern Dundy County. These storms should be short-
lived and no severe weather is expected at this time. Also raised
low temperatures Monday morning slightly as well as lowered high
temperatures Monday slightly. Increasing scattered cloud cover
Monday afternoon leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday evening will help keep temperatures a tad cooler tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a 594 DM H5
ridge remains centered over the Tri State area, leading to
widespread clear skies. At the surface, frontal zone stretches
from northeast Colorado into southeast South Dakota. To the south
of the front, very warm conditions continue with temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s were fairly widespread.
Primary forecast concerns for the next 36 hours will remained
centered on temperatures and precipitation potential.
For late afternoon and evening, area of convergence along front
just to the northwest of Yuma county. While inhibition should be
overcome over the next few hours, storm motion will generally be
along frontal zone so do not have much confidence storms will make
it very far into the area, but think there will be a 3 hour window
where an isolated storm may form, but overall probabilities will
be low.
Precipitation threat will once again increase during the late
afternoon period on Monday as front sags to the south and bisects
the area by 21 UTC. Mixed layer inhibition falls to under 25 J/kg
by afternoon and with persistent convergence along the front
expect this area to be focus area for storms late in the
afternoon. Shear profiles remain fairly weak so expect a somewhat
limited severe threat, but high PW`s and very slow storm motions
will bring an increased flash flood threat. Depending on strength
of convergence along front and slow storm motion, could
potentially see a favorable set up for landspouts late in the
afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow based on cooling
temps aloft, but with the exception of northwestern zones do not
expect any big relief from heat just yet.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
An area of upper level low pressure cuts off the main area of high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. from high pressure over the
southwestern U.S. Monday night. A closed low over south-central
Canada helps sustain the low pressure across the central U.S.
Another trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday. As the
closed low moves eastward, high pressure rebuilds over the U.S.
south of a line from southern California northeast to southern
Maine. The trough over the Pacific Northwest weakens as high
pressure builds over the southeastern U.S. and becomes a shortwave.
The weakening shortwave moves across the northern U.S. Friday
through Sunday as another trough forms over the Pacific Northwest.
Sunday, flow aloft becomes mostly zonal over much of the U.S.
Continuing the trend, surface lows set up along the Front Range in
eastern CO throughout the extended forecast period. These lows will
help contribute to any precipitation received in the Tri-State
area over the next week. Above normal precipitable water values
are expected across much of the Tri-State region as well providing
sufficient moisture to the area. With a weaker ridge,
temperatures should be slightly lower than they have been the last
several days. A cold front is expected to pass through the area
Friday evening aiding in temperature reprieve as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period at both KGLD and KMCK. Gusty southerly or southeasterly winds
to around 25 kts under clear skies are expected through this
evening at both sites. While winds will die down overnight, some
wind gusts to around 18 kts or so will stick around at KGLD. A few
high clouds may spread over both sites overnight, but no major
impacts are expected. Southerly or southeasterly winds around 10
to 15 kts will continue through Monday afternoon with some gusty
winds possible up to almost 20 kts at times. Some shallower
scattered clouds around 10 kft are expected to develop over both
sites in the late afternoon hours Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will become increasingly more likely closer to
Monday evening, but have left any TSRA mention out for 00Z update.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PATTON
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...PATTON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
703 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a couple
areas of thunderstorm activity early this afternoon, namely the
ongoing severe mcs over northern Illinois, and another complex
over western to central Wisconsin. The northern edge of the severe
mcs is exiting east-central Wisconsin while the strongest
convection within the secondary thunderstorm complex remains west
of Marathon and Wood counties. This storm activity is firing north
of a warm front which extends from low pressure over eastern South
Dakota to northeast Illinois early this afternoon. Further to the
northwest, a cold front resides from northwest Minnesota to
central South Dakota. As this cold front moves into northern
Wisconsin tonight, thunderstorm potential remains the main
forecast concern.
Tonight...High resolution models are pointing towards a lull in
the thunderstorm activity this evening as the atmosphere will be
worked over by the couple rounds of convection. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to fire along the cold front over South
Dakota and Minnesota, and possibly along the warm front over
southwest Wisconsin during the overnight hours. Some of these
storms may move into central WI late, but it is possible that
most of the thunderstorm activity will hold off until Monday
morning. A few strong storms are possible if they move into
central WI and elevated instability moves in from the west. Low
temps will mainly fall into the middle to upper 60s.
Monday...The cold front will gradually sink south across northern
Wisconsin. Some indications that ongoing thunderstorms from
overnight will move into north-central WI during the morning
hours. If the precip misses central and east-central WI in the
morning, then instability will have a chance to climb to 1k-2k
j/kg during the afternoon generally south of Hwy 29, where deep
layer shear is estimated to range from 30 to 35 kts. With
convergence via cold front or outflow from morning thunderstorms
and some minor height falls, strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible on Monday afternoon. SPC has central and east-central WI
in a marginal risk. Dropped high temps across far northern WI
where rain is expected early in the day.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Precipitation trends will be the main forecast concerns.
Weak low pressure is expected to track east along a stationary
frontal boundary into central WI Monday night into Tuesday. The
threat of heavy rainfall and possibly severe weather should return
as this occurs. Will carry likely POPs across part of the area
Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, though models offer
varying ideas on where a band of heavy rainfall will set up, so
later adjustments will certainly need to be made.
After the low shifts east, the front is expected to drop south of
the region again Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should result
in a decrease in the precipitation, though confidence is too low
to go with a completely dry forecast.
Precipitation chances will continue at times through late in the
work week, as frontal systems continue to impact the region.
Forecast confidence deteriorates by the weekend, as models
disagree on when a Canadian high pressure system will arrive. Did
not stray from the blended forecast during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
During the past 12 hours, two convective complexes have moved
southeast across central and western Wisconsin and have left
extensive upper-level cirrus debris in their wake. In addition, the
atmosphere has been worked over pretty good by these early
convective systems which has significantly stabilized the
atmosphere and therefore reduced the probabilities for additional
robust thunderstorm redevelopment during the overnight hours
across most of the forecast area. This seems to be supported by
the last short-term model guidance which suggests any additional
shower or thunderstorm activity will likely not return to the
forecast area until after about 12 UTC Monday. Thus, primarily
VFR conditions can be expected overnight. Convective activity now
developing over SE South Dakota and SW Minnesota may eventually
work its way into central Wisconsin, perhaps impacting AUW and CWA
TAFS sites roughly between 12 UTC and 16 UTC but confidence is low
on movement and intensity of this activity Sunday morning.
Otherwise a cold front will slowly drop southward into northern
and central Wisconsin during the day on Monday which will likely
increase the chances for more widespread shower and thundertstorm
activity later on Monday afternoon into the evening as the
atmosphere destabilizes. This activity will likely be associated
with MVFR cigs and vsbys. However, again confidence remains low
on location and timing of this activity later on Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......ESB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
High pressure is expected to remain across the lower Mississippi
River Valley through the middle of the week. This will result in a
warm and humid southwest flow of air to Central Indiana. Meanwhile
aloft...an upper level weather disturbance is expected to spill
across Indiana from the upper midwest Tonight and on Monday. This
will result in chances for shower and storms tonight and through
the start of the Holiday work week.
Chances for showers and storms will persist all week across
Central Indiana as the warm and humid air mass remains in place
and showers and storms will remain possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in
place across Missouri. For the moment this was resulting in NW
flow across Indiana. However the air mass across the area remained
very humid with dew points in the lower 70s SW of I-74. NE of
I-74...dewpoints were mainly in the 60s. GOES16 shows a CU field
developing along and south of the dewpoint boundary.
Forecast soundings late this afternoon reveal a minimal CAP in
place...along with convective temperatures near 90 and CAPE over
3000 J/KG. Pwats appear over 1.6 inches. HRRR shows TSRA
development along and south of the dew point boundary late this
afternoon. Given the isolated storms yesterday and the more
favorable set-up today...shower and storm development late this
afternoon and earl evening seems reasonable. Will include best
pops within the higher dew point area this evening.
Later this evening and overnight the short wave over Wisconsin is
poised to push southeast across Indiana. This upper forcing and
the warm air mass in place results in favorable conditions for
more showers and storms. Time heights shows a wave of lift
followed by quick subsidence overnight...hinting at a wave of
storms. Thus will again ramp up precipitation amounts overnight.
Regarding lows...will stick at or above expected dewpoints...which
cold result in some cooler lows overnight on the NE side of the
dew point boundary than we have seen the past few nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
GFS and NAM suggest the strong ridging aloft to flatten and weaken
on Monday through Wednesday. This will allow the upper pattern to
once again influence Indiana/s weather the next several
days...bringing in a few short waves close to Indiana. The first
looks to slowly passion Monday...before more upper support lingers
in the area on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Daytime heating on
each afternoon also looks to provide an additional support.
Forecast soundings each afternoon show minimal to no CAP in
place...along with CAPE each afternoon over 2000 J/KG and high
pwats over 1.7 inches. Thus will need to include pops each day as
the heating...moist air mass...instability and marginal upper
support all points to afternoon and evening showers and storms
through Wednesday.
Given the little change in air mass...will trend temps toward
persistence through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
ECMWF differs from the GFS in that it keep mid level heights a bit
higher than the GFS. The GFS is trending back to the northern
parts of the southeast ridge which places central IN back into
that occasional rainfall pattern just after the 4th of July
though the weekend. And, it look like that the National Blend
follows along with that idea of keeping chances of thunderstorms
in the forecast from Thursday afternoon on. Looking at the GFS
Ensemble looks similar in only that the ridge retrogrades into the
Plains which opens up that westerly/slight northwest pattern over
the area, again giving the area that chance for occasional
thunderstorms at the end of the week into the weekend.
Averages are mid 60s for lows and mid 80s for highs, and it look
that the area will be just above that through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 01/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
VFR will be the prevailing flight category for most of the TAF
sites through the TAF period. Did insert a tempo for MVFR fog
early this morning at KHUF and KBMG, which both received ample
rainfall Sunday evening. But, confidence is low in fog formation.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms over central Illinois will
have to continue to be monitored over the next several hours, but
current thinking is that the bulk of the activity should stay west
of the TAF sites. Monday afternoon and evening, the threat for
showers and thunderstorms will return, but confidence is still not
high enough to pinpoint exact timing of any storms that could
form. Winds through the period will generally be light and
variable.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift south across the region tonight before
sliding into the Carolinas Monday. High pressure follows the front
resulting in slightly drier weather into Tuesday. The high
should weaken and pass offshore by midweek allowing for a return
of heat, and humidity along with daily rounds of showers or
storms into much of the holiday weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday...
Showers and storms declining as cloud tops warming on IR
satellite, and less instability. Still kept threat of a few
showers til midnight across the NC mountains/Grayson Highlands.
Otherwise, not much change in the forecast from previous one.
Previous discussion from early this evening...
Updated forecast to reflect current radar trends and high-res
models, which deflect most of the storm activity over the
mountains of WV into the NC mountains early this evening with
possible renegade storms firing up in southside VA into the NC
piedmont, but mostly seeing activity waning after 9pm. Expect
clearing skies and fog in the mountains late tonight.
Previous discussion from early this afternoon...
An upper level trough will dig southeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight into Monday. A cold front will drop south across our region
tonight and stall across South Carolina Monday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along this boundary. Some
of the storms could contain gusty winds and heavy rains. SPC Day One
Convective outlook places marginal risk of severe weather across the
southern half of our forecast area. The potential for multicell
clusters with locally damaging winds is the primary hazard.
Both the Namnest and HRRR try to develop convection removed
from downsloping winds in the east with the better instability
which move east southeast tonight. At the same time, better
storm cover in the west is forecasted by the GFS and ECMWF. The
NAM and HiresW-ARW connected the two areas of convection. The
overall general weather is the same, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move southeast across our region this
afternoon into this evening.
Expect most thunderstorms and showers to fade or push south after
sunset as dry/cool advection kicks in behind the front overnight.
With light winds allowed for some river valley fog tonight into
Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s
in the northern mountains to upper 60s in the piedmont. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in across our region on Monday. High
temperatures on Monday will vary from the upper 70s in the mountains
to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...
Southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West
Virginia will be under surface high pressure Monday night then
surface and low level winds winds will gradually become west to
southwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the moves offshore then
weakens.
Probability of showers and thunderstorms will return to the area by
Tuesday afternoon. Larger areal coverage of thunderstorms is
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Air mass warms back up
above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with models showing the
potential for 850MB temperatures to approach +22. Will stay close to
warmer guidance Tuesday through Wednesday for both maximum and
minimum temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Sunday...
Starting this period with broad upper ridging over the southeast
United States. Any short waves around the northern edge of the ridge
would enhance the coverage of thunderstorms but placing the timing
and location at this time frame is low confidence.
By the end of the week a more organized cold front will move south
through the eastern United States. Temperatures will remain above
normal ahead of the front. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will be more extensive ahead of and along the boundary, then a
cooler air mass will cover the area post-frontal. Timing of when
this boundary comes through is questionable. No major changes needed
for this part of the forecast. Will have temperatures trending
cooler through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...
Aside from possible shower at BLF through 01z, expect rest of
the terminals to be rain free. VFR conditions expected this
evening, then a bit of fog at BLF/LWB overnight from about
08-12z.
Good flying conditions under high pressure on tap on Monday
with northwest winds on the order of 5-10 kts during the
afternoon.
Medium confidence on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
Overall VFR conditions expected Monday night into Tuesday with
only isolated afternoon western mountain showers/storms
possible. This followed by an increase in clouds including
showers and storms for Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure exits.
Appears best expanse of convection will be on Thursday when
periods of MVFR/IFR could occur with coverage likely less
Wednesday when only periods of MVFR appear more likely. Otrw
looking at late night/early morning fog/stratus to return by
midweek with possible sub-VFR at a few terminals. The chance for
IFR convection increases Friday and Saturday especially across
the western mountains.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
922 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.UPDATE...
Still dealing with some isolated showers across Deep East Texas
and into the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma. The
convection to our northwest should continue dissipating with the
loss of heating and a stabilizing boundary layer but we may see
the convection continue and increase in coverage after midnight
due in part to a persistent inverted trough axis which as of this
evening was located across S TX into SE TX and NW LA. The latest
00z NAM and HREF output shows renewed development after midnight
towards sunrise across our southwest half while the HRRR is a
little more bullish on this possibility.
For the update, kept slight chance pops going areawide through
midnight and then tapered pops back to slight chance and chance
variety across our southwest half only. Fcst temps are in the
ballpark so did not make any changes otherwise.
Updated package out shortly...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/
AVIATION...
Another day, another afternoon of dealing with pesky afternoon and
evening pop-up convection. For the 00z TAF package, started most
terminal locations off with VCTS, running that for 2 to 4 hours
with some TEMPO groups mixed in at the ELD/MLU/TXK and LFK
terminals for stronger vrb wind gusts, reduced vsbys and lower
ceilings where convection this evening is a pretty good bet based
on current radar trends.
Otherwise, kept VFR conditions prevailing through much of the
evening with the possibility of MVFR or IFR ceilings developing
before sunrise across our NE TX terminal locations along with
possible reduced vsbys. Short term progs, along with the HREF and
HRRR suggest the possibility of convection developing near or
shortly after sunrise in the vicinity of our NE TX terminal
locations with that possibility continuing through the daytime
hours. Thus have prevailed TYR/GGG/LFK and SHV with VCTS
beginning as early as 14-15z with other terminal locations
prevailing VCTS in the 17-18z timeframe.
Look for variable winds mostly below 10kts outside of convection
with variable to southeast winds at or below 10kts on Monday,
again, outside of convection.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 87 71 91 / 20 50 20 30
MLU 72 91 72 92 / 20 20 20 20
DEQ 70 86 70 89 / 20 50 30 20
TXK 70 86 71 90 / 20 50 20 20
ELD 70 89 71 92 / 20 30 20 20
TYR 70 85 71 88 / 20 50 20 20
GGG 70 86 71 89 / 20 50 20 30
LFK 71 87 71 91 / 30 30 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
13/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture and above average heat will keep a
few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast the next couple of
days. This will be followed by a drop in thunderstorm chances until
late in the week and into next weekend when moisture returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued across parts of southeast Arizona this afternoon. Latest
HRRR solution suggested that this activity will dissipate near
sundown and not linger into the late night hours like yesterday.
Models continued to suggest that enough moisture will linger the
next couple of days to support at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm chances drop off
until later in the week and into the next weekend when moisture
returns to far southeast Arizona. In the meantime, high temperatures
will remain a few degrees above normal before lowering to more
seasonable readings by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA, primarily along an axis extending from KOLS
toward the NNE. SCT-BKN cloud bases 10-15k ft MSL through the
period. Precipitation dissipates in the early evening, beginning
again tomorrow afternoon SE of KTUS. Surface winds SWLY-NWLY 8-12
kts with brief gusts to around 30 kts in and around TSRA. Winds
decrease light and variable this evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue this
week, though convection will be high-based resulting in gusty
outflow winds and dry lightning. Aside from the higher terrain,
wetting rains will be hard to come by in the valleys until the
surface moistens up more. Most activity remains southeast of Tucson
and up around the White Mountains. Deeper moisture helps to expand
the areal coverage by next weekend, with increasing thunderstorm
chances. Afternoon breezes strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday,
particularly in the Upper Gila River Valley and western Pima County.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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