Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/29/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
655 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
The convective complex that rolled through the area Thursday night
into early this morning continues to roll south through northern
Missouri. This has pushed the moisture pool well to the south while
the main synoptic boundary still resides over northern Iowa into
southern Wisconsin. If any new convection forms along the front, it
would likely be in the Missouri River Valley as the main cape axis
resides over western Iowa into eastern Nebraska. The moisture
transport is not very strong this afternoon with the RAP showing
what there is to line up with the cape axis. Based on this, will
essentially have a dry forecast for tonight. An area of high
pressure will try to build in from the north overnight. This should
allow for some clearing and with light winds, would expect to see
some fog form late tonight and persist into Saturday morning.
Saturday then looks to be quiet but warm as the area of high
pressure sinks southeast across the Great Lakes. Warmer air will
start to return on the backside of this high pushing surface
temperatures into the 85 to 90 degree range. It will still be rather
humid, which will help to push the heat indices in the middle to
upper 90s for most locations southwest of Interstate 94.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
A hot and humid Sunday is expected under the influence of mid-level
ridging with 925 mb temps climbing to 25-27C in the thermal ridge
axis ahead of an approaching cold front. High temps will likely
be near or above 90 in many locations with heat indices up to
around 100 possible in the afternoon, especially in the warmer
valley locations, assuming little interference from
clouds/convection. It`s possible, however, that weakening
convection developing on Saturday over the northern plains could
sneak into parts of the area Sunday morning along the periphery of
the ridge. Chances for convection may increase as a weak front
attempts to sag south into the area by late Sunday or Sunday night.
The environment will remain favorable for heavy rain given the
deep moisture present. Plenty of instability will be available,
but the stronger deep layer shear may be mostly post-frontal. That
said, the environment would support strong to potentially severe
storms, depending on timing.
A typical low predictability summer pattern is expected for much
of next week with fairly zonal flow aloft and a seasonably warm,
moist airmass residing across the area. Occasional chances for
showers/storms are expected as weak upper waves move across the
region at times, but confidence in timing of these waves and
mesoscale detail of surface boundary placement is very low. Highs
will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible at the TAF sites tonight into
mid morning Saturday. A moist airmass over the region will result
in low stratus and possible fog at times, if skies clear.
Confidence is low on the development of IFR stratus given a
persistent MVFR to VFR cloud deck over the TAF sites, that will
be slow to clear tonight. Will continue to monitor cloud trends
closely this evening. If more clearing occurs, then IFR stratus
development is likely.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1149 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level Low will move across the region over the weekend
keeping unsettled weather in place. High pressure is expected to
ridge across the region on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1135 PM Update...
Increased pops overnight for northern areas as latest radar
reflectivity imagery shows showers and isolated thunderstorms
beginning to move into far northwest areas in association with
an approaching short wave from Quebec. Also adjusted QPF
through the overnight hours for the same area. Patchy fog will
also be possible overnight, especially in areas that received
rainfall today. No significant changes to overnight low temps.
previous discussion
Widely scattered showers will be diminishing by the evening
w/the loss of the heating. Another round of shower are expected
later tonight as trof of low pres lifts across the region.
Decided to follow a blend of the HRRR/NAM and RAP for precip
placement w/some adjustments. Model guidance especially the NAM
and RAP look to be expanding the QPF too given the lack of
significant forcing. There does appear to enough llvl
convergence ahead of the boundary and a 30 kt mid level jet
streak to set up some showers after midnight. Activity is
expected to set up across the western areas and then expand east
overnight through early Saturday. Instability does not look to
be all that impressive but there does appear to be enough
elevated CAPE overnight to allow for some tstms. Decided to go
w/isolated wording attm. Decided to include fog too as
temp/dewpoints close in on each other and winds become light
from the sse.
For Saturday, expecting showers and possible tstms again on
Saturday w/the trof slowly lifting across the region. There
looks to be more coverage on Saturday as the upper trof
interacts w/the sfc trof. Once again, there does appear to be
enough instability for tstms, but limited in coverage.
T Weak storm motion and PWATS of at 1.25 inches will allow for
some heavy downpours. The NAM is more robust with its CAPE
showing potential of 700-1000 joules by the afternoon. This
looks a bit overdone as the GFS is not that unstable. Therefore,
decided on isolated tstm wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
At the start of the period, a low pressure system will be
tracking east along the SW Coast of Maine with an associated
front extending back across New England and a trough extending
north into central Quebec. This system will produce showers
across the area, possible thunderstorms mainly Downeast. The low
will move east to near Eastport by early Sunday morning. It
will continue to track east Sunday morning into Central Nova
Scotia. The associated trough will move into SW Maine, then into
the rest of the state by afternoon. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will develop and continue into early evening.
Early Monday morning the trough will clear the area, higher
pressure will build in through then end of the period, providing
Mostly sunny conditions for Monday.
The models they were in good agreement overall through the short
term of the forecast period. Loaded a blend of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the
models.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unstable conditions continue through the extended period of the
forecast. An upper level low over northern Quebec will continue
to spin off troughs through the period. A high pressure ridge
over the area at the start of the period will move east early
Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into NW Maine, the front
will spread across the state Tuesday morning bringing another
round of showers to the area. Early Wednesday the front will
move east of the area. Wednesday and Thursday will generally be
partly cloudy with widely scattered showers. Another cold front
will move into NW Maine Friday evening and will remain across
the area through the end of the period.
Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR into tonight w/tempo conditions of MVFR for
showers overnight and fog. MVFR with periods of IFR for Saturday
especially n of KBGR.
SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR dropping to IFR conditions in
showers through the period with unsettle weather conditions.
Periods of MVFR to VFR conditions between troughs, Late Sunday
evening through Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening to early
Wednesday morning. Conditions on Thursday will be MVFR with
widely scattered showers, cigs and VSBY will fall to Low MVFR
during pcpn.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines. Light southerly winds at 5-10 kts and
seas 2-3 ft. Could be seeing some fog develop late tonight into
Saturday.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Hewitt/Norton
Marine...Hewitt/Norton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1152 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle south through the forecast area
Saturday. Expect a brief period of cooler temperatures and
comfortable humidity for Sunday into Monday before another fast
moving cold front moves our way.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Radar trends continue to be toward fading activity, but
convection over western PA continues to linger in an area of
weak positive Theta-E advection. The HRRR keeps most of the
CWA dry through morning, and we lowered POPs as a result.
It will be rather muggy overnight with lows in the mid to upper
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
An east-west cold front will be sagging south through the lower
Lakes Saturday. As this settles across the forecast area, expect
it to move into a moderately unstable airmass. Deep layer shear
will be weak and mean layer winds will be westerly, tending to
downslope and dry. The GFS indicates that that mid levels will
actually be warming during the second half of the day which
could tend to be a hindrance to severe storm potential. Still
with CAPEs forecast between 1500-2000J, we could see some
locally strong storms, and SPC has a MARGINAL/SLIGHT for the
entire CWA.
Highs will range from around 80 over the north, to the lower 90s
over the Lower Susq. Right now the Heat Indices are forecast in
the mid 90s, but if the dewpoints end up underestimated, we
will see Heat Advisory criteria for a few hours over the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and storms should fade over the southern tier of CPA
Saturday night as the frontal boundary pushes south of the
Mason Dixon line by Sunday morning.
Slightly cooler and much drier/less humid air will arrive on
Sunday into Sunday night associated with area of below normal
PW. Heat and humidity quickly return and build through the 4th
of July. Expect above average temperatures next week with
increasingly humid conditions. Forecast max heat index values
should peak in the mid-upper 90s around Independence Day.
Low confidence in the precip pattern which will be dominated by
episodic convection tied to individual shortwaves - which offer
very limited predictability at this range.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions across central Pennsylvania tonight.
Convection for the most part is over across the region as of
04z.
Generally VFR conditions will persist overnight, but there will
still be a risk of some isolated restrictions in BR/HZ. Batch of
showers, and maybe some embedded thunder, may encroach on the
northwest mountains (aka KBFD) during the overnight. Have
included a VCSH group in the TAF after 05z.
There will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms and
local impacts associated with a cold front Saturday. Coverage of
the convection still in question. Have added VCTS to most
forecasts. Central areas (KAOO, KUNV) might be in a general
minimum for thunderstorms tomorrow, so for the time being have
left thunder out of these terminals. Later shifts can reassess
for possible VCTS inclusion here too.
.Outlook...
Sun-Mon...No Sig Wx.
Tue-Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung/La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.DISCUSSION...
The northern Gulf coast remains under a rather unsettled weather
pattern, thanks to a weak upper-level disturbance slowly
retrograding to the south and west across the lower MS valley
region. This feature has introduced just enough dynamic support to
enhance summertime shower/storm coverage in the afternoon hours,
and extend storm possibilities well into the early night time
hours. Latest RAP Mesoanalysis continues to illustrate sufficient
surface based instability across the area with ample diurnal fuel
for storm development. Additionally, the KLIX 12Z sounding did
show a bit of a change into the vertical wind profile, with much
more prominent northerly winds in the low to mid troposphere as H5
mid-level winds have cranked up slightly up to 20 to 25 knots
with temperatures around -10 to -11C. Main storm mode will
continue to be cellular through the early night time hours, with
damaging straight line winds/wet microbursts and hail the main
threats.
By tomorrow, the upper-level disturbance opens up a bit as an
open trough, extending well into the central Gulf. Latest CAM
guidance picks up on the additional dynamic support by keeping
increased shower/storm chances through tomorrow, possibly
beginning earlier in the morning hours and lasting through the
evening. As we reside on the upstream/eastward portion of this
weak open inverted trough, low to mid-level winds will shift more
from the E to ESE, but remain light. Having said this, the entire
vertical column will be much more moist than the previous few
days, with PW increasing to 1.8 to 1.9 inches owing to a limited
damaging wind potential. While a few strong gusts cannot be ruled
out, the severe risk should be lower tomorrow.
Eventually, as the inverted trough continues to parade west
underneath a large-scale blocking pattern across the US, we will
evolve into a much more moist, southerly return flow. We will jump
back into a typical hit-or-miss summertime pattern through next
week. Long-range guidance does hint at a steady change to the
upper-level pattern by late next week, with low-amplitude
troughing setting up across the eastern 1/3rd of the US, as
ridging amplifies across the Rockies. This may send weak cold
fronts near the area and increase storm chances, especially by
next weekend, but the main idea is there are no significant storm
systems that may lead to notable hazards/impacts through the next
7 days. KLG
.MARINE...
Persistent easterly to northeasterly winds continue across Marine
zones tonight, with a few areas of showers/storms extending into
tonight, especially for near coastal areas. By tomorrow, a passing
upper-level disturbance/inverted trough will transition surface
winds more from the southeast, and slightly increase in speed. Not
expecting any small craft advisory-level criteria Saturday or
Sunday, however showers/storm chances will remain elevated with
gusty, erratic wind gusts and a few stronger storms reaching
special marine criteria. As this trough continues west early next
week, rain chances will nudge back down slightly, with better
chances remaining near coastal areas while the rest of the week
looks relatively calm with no significant impacts/hazards
expected. KLG
.AVIATION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed over the western
portions of the forecast area. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
hail have all been reported this afternoon with these storms. Will
have to amend KHDC for a TEMPO group to cover incoming
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should slowly diminish after 3Z. Outside
of the thunderstorms expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF
period. 13/MH
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River flood warnings
Marginal Risk for Severe
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 89 70 91 / 30 60 30 50
BTR 71 90 72 90 / 30 60 20 60
ASD 72 90 73 91 / 30 60 30 50
MSY 76 89 75 90 / 30 60 30 60
GPT 73 88 74 89 / 40 60 40 50
PQL 70 89 73 91 / 40 60 40 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/
DISCUSSION...
RAP IR satellite analysis shows high pressure is firmly in place
over the Lone Star State. This will be the dominating feature of
our weather throughout the weekend, so it`ll be a great time to
spend some time outdoors (Disclaimer: that`s if you wear
sunscreen, drink plenty of water and follow other heat safety
rules). It will be warm...hot in some places. Thicknesses increase
slightly from today, and H850 temps will be on the rise as well.
Sounding profiles signal deep mixing tomorrow, so temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer. It won`t be surprising if a few
spots on the Rolling Plains hit the triple digit mark sometime
during the weekend, though Saturday appears to be more likely.
Passing clouds on Sunday could keep temps a degree or two cooler.
Our next major change will be a westward moving tropical wave along
the Gulf Coast. This feature may start pushing moisture this way
beginning Tuesday with showers/thunderstorms continuing each day
after that through the Independence Day Holiday. Don`t panic yet
about your outdoor celebrations, though. This is only a passing
wave, and it could shift track or even stall well before reaching
us. We`ll watch this feature closely, as models do currently agree
on its existence.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
952 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019
.DISCUSSION...Current forecast on track with just a few minor
adjustments. Went ahead and added some patchy dense fog to the
forecast to areas that saw precipitation today as they will
likely see patchy dense fog overnight. Did adjust overnight lows
by a degree or two up across SWVA as LNP is already at their
previously forecasted low. Don`t expect the temp to drop too much
more though as the temps is currently 64 and so is the dewpoint.
Will send out new zones for the aforementioned low temp adjustment
and addition of patchy dense fog.
Lastly, one lone storm remains near CHA but expect it to diminish
soon as neither the RAP or HRRR show activity past 02Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 71 90 / 20 20 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 90 70 88 / 20 20 10 30
Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 70 90 / 20 20 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 66 85 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SR