Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/25/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
920 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will cross the region tonight, then linger
along the coast Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area from Tuesday
night through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 845 PM EDT Monday...
Latest analysis indicating a sfc trough of low pressure over the
region with an upper level ridge axis along the coast and
progged to move offshore overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough
is situated across the western Great Lakes region, and is
progged by the models to weaken overnight while moving ENE.
Earlier tstm activity over the northern zones has generally
diminished, but there is a lot of ongoing convection upstream
over western VA/western NC/SC. Little in the way of precipitation
is expected through the next few hrs, then following fairly
close to the past few runs of the HRRR and HREF means yields
showers and tstms advancing E into the Piedmont close to
midnight and shifting E/NE with time before diminishing between
06-09Z. Have raised PoPs to likely (~60%) for a few hrs over
the northern Piedmont counties, with high chance (40-50%) for
scattered showers/tstms into metro RIC and most of the I-95
corridor, tapered to just a slight chance over most of SE VA and
NE NC where heights aloft look to keep conditions a little more
capped and stable (though not completely so). This overnight
activity is not expected to be severe, but some locally heavy
rain will likely accompany some of the storms given Precipitable
Water values from 1.70" to nearly 2.00". There is just enough
shear and remaining instability that a few storms could contain
some strong gusty winds to around 40 mph. Currently very warm
and humid across the area with areas that did not receive any
rain from earlier this evening still mostly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with dew pts in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows
will be primarily from 70 to 75F, with a few upper 60s in the
Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Models show the boundary lingering along the coast Tue with high
pressure building east across the mts. A weak impulse may add an
additional trigger for aftn convection along the sern coastal
areas (inducing local seabreezes). Thus will keep slight chance/low
chc PoPs mainly from the Ches Bay east towards the coast. Otw,
pt to mostly sunny. Highs upr 80s-lwr 90s, cooler at the beaches.
High pressure builds into the region Tues night, moves across
the area Wed, the settles off the coast Wed night/Thu. Dry
through this period, although there may be a lingering
convection across the coastal waters Tue eve. Lows Tue night mid
60s-lwr 70s. Highs both Wed/Thu upr 80s-lwr 90s, cooler at the
beaches. Lows Wed night upr 60s-lwr 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Very warm-hot/mainly dry wx expected through Fri as an upper ridge
remains near the SE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure
remains anchored just off the Carolina coast from Thu-Fri. Cannot
rule out isolated late aftn/evening tstms across the Piedmont on
Fri, but kept PoPs aob 14%. Blend of the models continues to suggest
that an upper low/trough aloft drops SSE from Ontario/Quebec to the
Northeast CONUS coast late Sat-Mon. This may result in better tstm
chances on Sat/Sun (highest during the late aftn-evening) before a
cold front crosses the region Sun night. Still does not look like a
lot of tstm coverage on this weekend (even w/ the cold FROPA late
Sun-Sun night), so have kept PoPs in the 15-30% range.
Highs Fri-Sun mainly in the 90-95F range...with morning lows mainly
in the low 70s (w/ mid 70s across portions of coastal SE VA/NE NC).
Slightly cooler behind the front on Mon, with highs in the mid-upper
80s (and morning lows mainly in the upper 60s)
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions are expected thru most of the forecast period.
While there are a few SHRAs invof SBY right now, a broken line
of SHRAs/tstms has developed from WV southward to the mountains
of VA/NC. This line of SHRAs/tstms (associated w/ a trough of
low pressure) will move toward the terminals during the next few
hours, but is expected to weaken as it does so. RIC stands the
best chc of seeing a tstm, while mainly SHRAs are possible at
SBY. The chc of pcpn is low (~20%) across the southeastern
terminals, so have left any mention of pcpn out of the TAFs.
CIGS remain VFR even as the aforementioned line of SHRAs/tstms
moves through (in a weakened state). Brief IFR VSBYs are likely
in the heavier SHRAs/tstms. Have a TEMPO group for SHRAs at RIC
from 02-05z, but only mentioned VCSH at SBY for now. Pcpn
chances end from W to E later tonight as the trough of low
pressure crosses the area. Southerly winds turn to the NW by Tue
AM at all sites, but remain around 10 kt. Local sea breezes
will dominate Tue PM with respect to wind. There is a slight chc
of aftn SHRAs near the coast Tue PM. Otherwise, dry on Tue w/
SCT CU (4-6k ft) during the aftn.
OUTLOOK...Expect mainly VFR (dry) conditions Tue night thru
Fri.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast
coast leading to southerly flow across the region. Winds have
increased to 10-15 knots and backed a bit to southeasterly as a
surface trough approaches from the west. Waves and seas are
generally around 2 ft but will increase to 2-3 ft this evening under
continued SSE flow. While a few gusts nearing SCA levels will be
possible this evening into the overnight, opted not to issue any
headlines with sustained winds topping out around 15 knots. There is
a chance for a few showers and storms later this evening but trends
in hi-res models today have been toward lesser coverage and
intensity across the marine zones tonight.
A weak, convectively-enhanced, trough will cross the area on Tuesday
with winds veering around to the west and northwest in the Bay for a
period before southerly flow briefly resumes ahead of a weak cold
front. The front crosses the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but
with little to no airmass change behind the front, winds will become
NNE but remain aob 10 knots in its wake, becoming SSE by Wed night.
The remainder of the week will see generally quiet marine conditions
with prevailing southerly flow, ~10-15 knots, and waves/seas 1-2 ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/MPR
MARINE...RHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Cold front has swept east of the local area, but scattered
convective firing just behind it, in a ribbon of instability and
increasing low/mid level lapse rates. RAP suggests 1500 J/kg in
SBCAPE although wind shear is weak at best. That said, could be
enough for a few stronger storms. Threat leans toward hail, but with
drying in the low levels post the front, inverted-v sounding would
support enhanced downdrafts. This strong storm potential should exit
east between 21-23z (isolated severe can`t be ruled out) but a few
more showers/storms will be found behind that, associated with an
upper level piece of energy slipping in from the northwest. These
will linger into late evening before diminishing/ending.
On Tue, another bit of upper level energy will drive eastward across
the region, pushing another sfc front ahead of it. Drier air mass to
work on and most models aren`t very enthusiastic with rain potential
(smattering of chances). That said, could see upwards of 1500-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE develop across northeast IA/southwest WI for the
afternoon. The NAM and GFS are more aggressive with CAPE, but also
more robust with dewpoints - overly so. Low 60s more reasonable in
those areas. That said, rather dry sub cloud layer per bufkit
soundings would promote mixing, drying out the dewpoints across the
area and carving away the instability. Shear is decent and would
support storm development, but mostly in the 0-3 km layer (+30 kts).
Low level moisture transport mostly progged to feed the southern
extended of the front, across southern/eastern IA. So, some
potential for a few stronger (severe?) storms if storms can fire -
and that is the bigger question. Convergence is weak along the
norhtern front as it moves through, better across southern IA.
Shortwave energy is there, but farther north, even more removed from
the more favorable atmosphere. Front could/will probably be enough
to fire up a few storms, but think the higher threat/better chances
will be across southern IA...maybe eastern WI.
Wednesday looks similar to Tue although perhaps without the small
rain chances. Various weak perturbations in the quick moving upper
level flow, but not much saturation to work on, nor much agreement
between/within the models.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
It`s all about the heat and humidity for the end of the week.
Models remain in favor of upper level ridge amplification across the
plains as the week wears on. The hottest air (mid 20s C 850mb temps)
looks to hold across the plains - but NAEFS anomalies point to
around +1 for 850mb temps locally. Highs in the mid 80s to around 90
should result. Steady southerly fetch also means a tap into gulf
moisture. Sfc dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 look reasonable.
So for those hankering for some summer heat and humidity
- here it is. Don`t think we will move into heat advisory criteria,
but it`s definitely going to be a period of very warm/humid
conditions and the appropriate precautions should be taken (moreso
having not dealt with this kind of airmass this summer yet).
While the region is coming under the influence of the upper level
ridge to the west, the GFS and EC suggest ripples in the flow will
ride across the ridge bringing sporadic shower/storm chances. In
addition, mcs activity over the northern plains could track mcvs
through the Upper Mississippi River Valley - another potential focus
for shower/storm development. Trying to pinpoint timing/location of
any of these features is an exercise in futility this far out...so
will let the model blend dictate rain chances for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
VFR expected at the TAF sites. Will monitor for a late night
chance /KRST and KLSE/ and Tuesday afternoon /KLSE only/ chance
for a TSRA as weather impulses move out of the Dakotas overnight.
Confidence and probabilities are too low to include into the TAF
at this time.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1054 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through central Pennsylvania tonight and
early Tuesday. Building heights are expected across the Mid
Atlantic region during the second half of the week. A cold front
will likely push south across the region by early next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The lines entering central PA continue to weaken as they are
entering a cooler, more stable air mass. The ridge, though
weakening as it moves east, continues to stifle the approaching
convection. The setting sun has deprived the showers and storms
of its heating so expect these storms to continue to weaken as
it moves through PA. Still don`t rule out isolated thunder
embedded in the line overnight. The strongest convection is
currently south of the Mason Dixon and making its way into
Somerset county. expect these storms to move NW into the region
overnight. Have adjusted timing to the latest HRRR and the
radar. However the timing is very consistent to previous
thinking, and have only tweaked to get slightly finer timing
using the HRRR and RAP as basis. The cold front is back in Ohio
and will moving through the region overnight into Tuesday
morning. not expecting any flooding as the storms are not
training over the same region and are moving fairly fast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers should be exiting the eastern part of the forecast area
early Tuesday, as cold front pushes east. Surface ridging
building into the state should translate to fair weather for the
rest of the day over most of central Pa. However, cooling temps
aloft, combined with diurnal heating, could result in a few
afternoon sprinkles across the NW mountains.
With the upper trough lifting out, the post cold frontal airmass
will be drier but not significantly cooler. Highs will range
from the mid 70s NW to mid 80s SE, which will be a few deg
either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A summertime pattern will arrive right on schedule with above
average temperatures and humid/muggy conditions to close out the
month of June. A theme of drier weather is also expected through
most of the week with just an isolated shower or thunderstorm
possible. A digging upper trough over the Northeast US will
bring the most likely period of t-storms to the area over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Line of showers and storms is currently moving into eastern PA.
These storms have reached the east central TAF sites of BFD JST
and AOO. Have removed VCTS from most TAFS, the thunder along
the lines are becoming more isolated but given that some exists
have gone with VCTS for BFD and JST. These storms will weaken
as they move eastward. Latest HRRR continues to bring them
through central PA through the first half of the overnight
period. Showers could linger though the NW into early tomorrow
morning. MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible mainly after 09Z. BFD
could see showers linger until around 10Z.
MVFR cigs, with periods of IFR cigs possible at BFD and IPT,
will improve slowly until around 15Z. As the SFC mixes out
expect gusty west winds upwards of 25kts.
.Outlook...
Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.
Thu...No sig wx.
Fri...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.
Sat...Chance of mainly PM showers and T-storms.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Challenges: With the airmass over the region still recovering
from MCS-washout(stabilization) the past 24 hours and weak 925mb
flow expected, timing MVFR cigs into all airports by daybreak
Tuesday is a bit problematic. Low confidence TS chances beyond
21z Tuesday also a concern.
Right now, an expansive cirrostratus canopy remains overhead,
particularly over Waco and Central Texas. Scattered severe TS have
developed well to the west on the old MCS outflow, but are not
expected to impact terminals and should remain well west tonight.
925mb flow is expected to recover overnight from the S at 20-25
knots. RAP/NAM model guidance/soundings are struggling a bit on
timing of MVFR cigs on this modest 925mb flow, but have maintained
a time either side of 12z for arrival into airports. Waco 10z-11z,
DFW airports likely 12z-13z. There are signs on RAP soundings that
at least scattered clouds BLO FL010 or some MVFR/BR may be
possible with light ESE winds. At this time, with 925mb flow on
the weak side and uncertainty on the cirrostratus canopy, I will
only introduce scattered clouds in the IFR layer and just maintain
prevailing MVFR cigs BLO FL015.
All airports will see MVFR cigs throughout the post daybreak
hours, with low level warming allowing a slow rise into low MVFR
by 17z-18z Tuesday. TTU WRF does show some low TS potential in the
22z Tues-01z Wed period and scattering of cigs, but confidence was
too low at this time to introduce into the forecast. Otherwise,
light E/SE winds less than 10 knots, will veer southerly 10-12
knots by Tuesday afternoon.
05/
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
/Tonight/
Abundant cloud cover and cool thunderstorm outflows are
keeping below normal temperatures across the region this
afternoon. The cloud cover will linger through the night and
dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Therefore,
overnight lows should be on the warm side with lower and middle
70s in most locations.
The only other concern tonight will be the potential for
thunderstorms. The atmosphere will remain moderately unstable
tonight and a shortwave is progged to move east out of West
Texas. Storms will likely develop west and southwest of the region
this evening and weaken as they move east into a more capped
environment across North Texas. Therefore, we will only keep
slight chance PoPs through the night.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
/Tuesday through Monday/
The weather pattern will change over the next week as we shift
from upper level westerlies to easterlies in response to a
subtropical high building over northern Mexico and moving into
the Central Plains. Before this occurs we`ll have one more weak
shortwave slowly trough track through the region Tuesday, which
when combined with a moist and unstable airmass, should spark off
scattered showers and storms. Most of the activity will be in the
afternoon and early evening hours and to the east of the I-35
corridor where PoPs will be near 50%. These PoPs will taper off
to 20% in the western zones. Low temperatures will be in the low
to mid 70s and highs will be held down by the increased cloud
cover ranging from mid 80s in the east to near 90 elsewhere.
On Wednesday very weak northerly upper level flow will become
established over the region and this could allow an MCS that
develops in Kansas Tuesday night to drop south into northeast
Texas during the day. Since the model guidance is split on
whether this will even survive the trip through Oklahoma will keep
PoPs at just 20-30% over the northeastern zones. Otherwise with
the increased sunshine, temperatures will warm a couple degrees,
but still near normal for late June.
By Thursday and Friday upper level ridging looks to be close
enough for subsidence to dominate and keep the region dry. High
temperatures will tick upwards into the low to possibly mid 90s.
Lows will remain near normal in the mid 70s as light winds and
clear skies will prevail at night.
By the weekend the upper level high will have moved into the
Plains and an inverted weakness aloft will develop over the
region. This combined with adequate moisture over the eastern
zones likely will lead to some generic isolated afternoon showers
and storms. High temperatures may cool a degree or two as the low
level fetch becomes southerly off of the "cooler" Gulf of Mexico.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 90 72 91 73 / 20 30 20 10 10
Waco 74 89 72 92 71 / 20 30 30 10 5
Paris 71 86 68 86 70 / 20 40 20 30 10
Denton 72 89 71 91 72 / 20 30 20 10 10
McKinney 73 88 71 89 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
Dallas 74 90 72 91 73 / 20 30 20 10 10
Terrell 73 88 71 89 72 / 20 40 30 10 10
Corsicana 71 87 70 88 70 / 20 40 30 10 10
Temple 74 90 72 91 71 / 20 30 30 10 5
Mineral Wells 70 89 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will approach the Carolinas from the west weakening as
it moves toward the coast tonight. High pressure will build
slowly into the Carolinas behind it leading to hot and drier
weather through mid-week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
increase Friday through the weekend as high pressure shifts off
shore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Monday...Tstorm activity approaching from the west
continues to weaken. Models indifferent in handling
this activity but given real time tendencies, will continue the
weakening trend with activity likely isolated in coverage by the
time it pushes east into our western portions of the ILM CWA.
Pcpn will generally be under 0.05 inches. Have updated sky
conditions by increasing low and mid-level clouds with majority
of these being convective debris clouds. Eventually high level
debris ci/cs will dominate bkn/ovc into daylight Tue. Have
tweaked temps a degree or 2 but no categorical changes.
Previous.................................................
As of 3 PM Monday...Mid level ridge moves off the coast tonight
allowing for shortwave trough to approach from the west.
Agreement is poor between various models as to whether or not
the associated precip makes it into the area. The wet outlier
solution of the GFS appears to be suffering from convective
feedback upstream and seems to have energy too far south. The
WRF has no precipitation whatsoever. The HRRR has a line that
moves into mainly inland SC counties before dissipates. This
solution not only appears the most plausible but also seems to
match well with previous thinking. The trough axis doensn`t move
offshore until about 18Z Tuesday but with the diurnal lack of
instability beforehand the morning will be dry. The afternoon
will then remain rain-free compliments of downward vertical
motion associated with the progression of the trough and the
associated NVA. Highs tomorrow will be similar today save for a
much lessened oceanic influence as surface wind turns offshore
and the seabreeze remains pinned. Heat index values will be
lower however as this windshift brings slightly lower dewpoints.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Expansion of elongated mid-level ridge over
the Southeast through mid-week and weak high pressure at the
surface will likely keep most of the region dry through Thu
night. Weak cold front will be just offshore Wed morning with
the front expected to linger through Wed night before
dissipating Thu. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm
along the sea breeze/Piedmont trough cannot be ruled out.
However, coverage would be limited given the unfavorable
environment, mainly an abundance of mid-level dry air.
Temperatures will run a little above climo with highs in the low
to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Mid-level ridge weakens and shifts southeast
late in the week as surface high consolidates offshore. The increase
in moisture along with the decrease in subsidence aloft will lead to
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage for the weekend. Early
next week a 5h cutoff develops over Nova Scotia with broad 5h trough
over the East coast pushing a cold front into the area.
-Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Fri through Mon.
Storms may lingering into the evening hours.
-Temperatures slightly above to above climo through the weekend.
-Cold front will drop temperatures back near climo for Mon.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...A cold front currently over GA will track eastward
overnight tonight. Ongoing convection will move over western SC and
diminish with a stabilizing BL and entraining dry air ahead of the
front. By the time the boundary reaches our area, there could be a
few residual showers, but mostly, expect a BKN mid-level deck.
Thereafter, westerly winds 5-10 knots and mostly clear skies will
prevail; VFR conditions throughout the period.
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR through the period with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from afternoon convection and early morning fog and/or,
low stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight
As of 1015 PM Monday...Not much if any tweaking needed other
than blending current wind trends into the overall fcst scheme.
Sig. seas will run 1 to 3 ft with the 3 footers mainly off Cape
Fear and Romain respectively.
Tonight thru Tuesday Night:
As of 3 PM Monday...Southwesterly flow cause by west Atlantic
high pressure tonight will give way to increasingly westerly and
then northwesterly wind Tuesday into Tuesday night as a very
weak front pushes through. The gradient never really picks up as
this occurs so a wind speed forecast of 10kt will hold
throughout. Waves will remain capped at 2 ft, possibly running a
tad lower near shore due to coastal wave shadowing especially
by Tuesday night.
Weak gradient through the end of the week with surface high overhead
slowly shifting offshore will keep east to southeast winds 10 kt or
less into the weekend. Might be a slight bump in speeds Sat
afternoon as the Piedmont trough becomes a little better defined.
Seas around 2 ft through the end of the work week increase to 2 to 3
ft Sat.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1042 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
A few showers and storms are progressing over southeastern
Indiana and central Kentucky. However, the HRRR shows these
dissipating by the time they would enter eastern Kentucky.
Therefore, have kept our area dry tonight based on this model
guidance. The main concern for the overnight will be areas of
patchy fog and river valley fog, especially since clouds are
clearing a bit faster than originally expected. Have updated Sky
Cover to better reflect these trends as well. Since showers and
storms are no longer a threat tonight, sent an updated HWO as well
as a new ZFP. Other than this, ingested the latest observations
and blended into the overnight hours. Current temperatures across
eastern Kentucky are in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in
spots. Lows are still on track to dip into the mid 60s by tomorrow
morning. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web.
UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
The lines of strong to severe thunderstorms have moved into VA
and WV. The atmosphere across East KY has stabilized and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 439 has thus been cancelled. Expecting what
remains of the shower activity to move out of the state next hour
or so, along with thunder chances. Have updated PoPs to reflect
these trends and have also removed thunder after 9PM. Due to
recent rains and sufficient moisture still present, some river
valley fog as well as areas of patchy fog are possible during the
overnight. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, with
lows tonight in the mid 60s expected. A new ZFP was recently sent.
All updates have also been sent to the web and to NDFD as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 453 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
An MCV continues to progress east across the Commonwealth within a
mid level trough approaching from the west but well in advance of
a cold front entering the Lower OH Valley. Convection is ongoing
over the region with strongest cells just southwest of JKL at
present. Base velocities in excess of 60kt have been noted with
the line segment west of JKL within a reflectivity nub, indicative
of QLCS tornado potential and hence the recently issued tornado
warnings.
The MCV will continue moving east northeast across the region
through early this evening with the axis of the 500 mb trough
approaching the area tonight and moving east of the region on
Tuesday morning. Height rises should follow for Tuesday and into
much of Tuesday night as ridging over the Southeast builds into
the area. The cold front associated with the mid level trough will
move across the area late this evening into the overnight hours
moving into VA by dawn. Sfc high pressure will build into the
Appalachians to end the period.
The main period of concern weatherwise is through around 7 PM as
the MCV continues moving east northeast and thunderstorms work
across the remainder of the area. The southeast portion of the
area has received sunshine so at least strong to damaging wind
gusts will remain a hazard with small hail and heavy rain
possible. An isolated brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out. Chances for showers and storms will diminish through the
evening, though a shower will remain possible until the cold front
moves through during the predawn hours of Tuesday. Some fog will
also be possible, especially late as winds should diminish,
particularly behind the front.
High pressure at the surface and aloft should bring gradually
decreasing clouds and dry weather on Tuesday. Dry weather should
continue through Tuesday night and into the start of the Long Term
period. Temperatures will be close to early summer normals.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 422 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
Broad zonal flow will transition Thursday and Friday as a southern
stream shortwave trough cuts off across the lower Mississippi Valley
and Dixie Alley, competing with ridging attempting to build in from
both the Midwest and western Atlantic. Surface ridging across the
Appalachians will help to keep the main storm track north of the
Bluegrass region through Thursday, with convection also confined
farther south near the above mentioned upper wave.
Friday afternoon/evening may bring a few showers/storms to the
higher terrain near the Tennessee/Virginia borders as a northern
stream impulse rotates through the upper Ohio Valley south of the
parent low positioned near Hudson Bay. This will help suppress the
surface high southeast and allow for enough moisture return to spark
a couple of storms. Showers and storms will continue to be a
possibility through the weekend as the Hudson Bay low slides
southeast across Quebec with cyclonic flow fighting to break down
the western Atlantic ridge.
Despite the uncertainties in the exact evolution of the synoptic
pattern, higher heights and relatively drier air look to bring a
return to warmer temperatures with highs in the mid-upper 80s and
lows in the mid-upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
Most of the shower and storm activity has moved east of Kentucky
thanks to a passing cold front over the eastern portion of the
Commonwealth. Mainly VFR conditions were observed at issuance, but
some instances of MVFR were reported as well. Not expecting any
more showers or storms for the rest of the TAF period, but some
river valley fog is possible overnight tonight. This is primarily
due to recent rains and lingering moisture. Have included mention
of lowering CIG and VIS to MVFR for all TAF sites tonight.
However, the fog is expected to dissipate with the sunrise
tomorrow morning. Clouds will decrease through tomorrow morning as
well, with mostly sunny skies the main story tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will generally be light and variable tonight, but increase
to be between 5 and 10 knots from the west tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...CGAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
A weak disturbance operating on a cold front dropping through wrn
and ncntl Nebraska could produce a small batch of showers and
thunderstorms this evening. The HRRR, HREF, RAP and model blend
appear to be in very good agreement for scattered showers and
thunderstorms affecting the Sheridan county, the Sandhills and ncntl
Nebraska.
A small cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop Tuesday
afternoon on the Cheyenne Divide. These storms will affect swrn
Nebraska Tuesday evening, mainly south of Interstate 80. The NAM,
HREF and GFS are in very good agreement for this event. POPs are
capped at 30 percent given the compact nature of the convection
shown by the models. Winds aloft are still strong Tuesday (30-40kts
at h500mb) and this could support strong or isolated severe storms.
A rich batch of instability will be lifting northwest through KS
(4000+ J/KG MLCAPE) and this could fuel the storms throughout the
evening as they move through swrn Neb.
The temperature forecast tonight uses the straight guidance blend
which is the coolest solution. Bias correction was added to the
guidance blend Tuesday and Tuesday night as warmer temperatures and
south winds will develop, especially Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
The thunderstorm chances (30-40 percent) Wednesday evening are a bit
more widespread for this forecast as instability has advanced north
into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Winds aloft at 500 mb are weak at 20-
25kts and the cap is still relatively weak (12C at h700mb). This
would support a multicell outflow dominant storm environment perhaps
lasting well into the evening as a modest 30-35kt low level jet
develops. The NAM develops eastward moving storm complexes over nern
Colo, the Laramie Range and Pine Ridge.
The rest of the thunderstorm forecast is generally isolated as
temperatures at h700mb warm to around 14C. Winds aloft weaken
further to less than 20 kts at h500mb. Stronger winds, around 30kts,
are available at h300mb if storm updrafts become sufficiently deep.
A weak cold front may move through next Monday. The models suggest a
chance of thunderstorms ahead of the front Sunday night.
The model blended forecast concept has nudged high temperatures
Thursday through Sunday a degree or two higher with more highs in
the 90s. Sfc low pressure will remain anchored on the nrn high
Plains and this should provide a more or less continuous moisture
feed from the South. The NAM suggests dew points in the mid 60s to
lower 70s Thursday which could become common Friday through
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
VFR will continue through the forecast period for western Nebraska
terminals. A few rain showers or thunderstorms will cross north
central Nebraska late this evening, possibly affecting KGRN,
KVTN, KANW, KONL. Winds turn light and variable overnight as the
sky returns to mostly clear lasting through the day on Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Upper level trough moving overhead today as evident by afternoon
satellite imagery paired with RAP 500mb heights. Scattered showers
with isolated thunder were working eastward along and to the east of
the trough axis this afternoon. In western MN, showers had ended
skies were beginning to clear, with mainly just high clouds left,
along with some scattered cumulus.
The trough axis will continue to swing east as it takes on a
negative tilt with time over WI. The showery activity across eastern
MN and western WI will come to an end by this evening as the trough
axis moves east of our area, leaving us with dry northwesterly flow.
Zonal flow will develop in the wake of the departing trough
tomorrow, so partly cloudy skies with temperatures likely warming
into the lower 80s is expected. A shortwave trough is expected to
move east across North Dakota overnight, and affect northern MN
tomorrow. There could be increased cloud cover for parts of central
MN from this, but most of the area will see mostly sunny skies
tomorrow. Clear skies continue tomorrow night as a surface ridge
axis moves through the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Not much change to the forecast in the long term with the main focus
being the return of more summer-like warm and humid temperatures, as
strong ridging builds into the upper midwest beginning midweek. Heat
will build through the week as the ridging amplifies overhead, with
850 mb temperatures increasing to around 25 C by the weekend.
Widespread highs in the 90s are expected by Friday, with the upper
end of guidance showing the potential for some mid-upper 90s across
western Minnesota over the weekend. Overnight lows look to be quite
warm as well, in the mid 60s to low 70s, and look to be even warmer
in the core of the Twin Cities metro with the urban heat island
effect. Dewpoints will also be on the increase as well, with much
muggier air advecting dewpoints near 70 degrees into the region by
Thursday. Model show dewpoints increasing even higher into the mid-
upper 70s over the weekend, and in in a typical summer we would see
a boost to this gulf moisture due to evapotranspiration from mature
crops in the fields. However, believe these more extreme dewpoints
are overdone after accounting for the very late planting season.
Still, dewpoints around 70 and temperatures in the 90s will still
allow for heat indices to approach 100 this weekend so heat
precautions should be considered for any outdoor activities.
Confidence in the precipitation forecast still remains low, but a
couple periods stand out as our better chances. The first comes
Wednesday night into Thursday as the low-level jet ramps up and
brings our first surge of warm advection into the region. Forcing
aloft remains limited to a weak shortwave which may only skirt
southern Minnesota, so PoPs remain in the lower 30-40% range. MUCAPE
values increase to 2000-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values
look to approach 30 kts so some more organized and stronger storms
look possible. Instability will remain high through the weekend, but
strong capping aloft and the jet nosing well north into Canada
should limit our precipitation chances overall for Friday/Saturday.
Can`t rule out an overnight MCS developing and riding mesoscale
boundaries into the area as well, but predictability is too low at
this range. Finally, precipitation chances look to increase again
Sunday into early next week as the ridge flattens and drops the the
jet stream back over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Storms coming in on a shortwave over the Dakotas have run out of
instability and expect this showers to be mostly dissipated by 6z,
with nothing more than accas expected as this wave pushes east
tonight. Still anticipate deep mixing Tuesday, with west winds
gusting up around 25 kts, with the strongest winds in central MN.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/tsra. Winds SSE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
843 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous shortwave
beginning to take on a negative tilt as it lifts thru the Upper
Mississippi Valley. At the sfc, low pres trof extends across western
Upper MI from e side of the Keweenaw Peninsula s to around
Watersmeet. Increasing deep layer forcing ahead of the shortwave
is beginning to support an expansion of shra and some isold
thunder ne from WI into central Upper MI. Fortunately, abundant
low-level moisture and resulting cloud cover has kept instability
in check today. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPES up to around
500j/kg and MUCAPE into the 500-1000j/kg range. Upstream, next
shortwave of interest is over MT, and this feature will play a
role in the weather here on Tue as it may lead to strong to svr
storms.
Expect shra to continue expanding over the next several hrs and
spread e and ne in association with shortwave lifting across the
Upper Great Lakes. Expect some locally hvy rainfall. After the
overall dry conditions that have prevailed this month across the
fcst area (month to date pcpn is running under 50% of normal over
the w half of Upper MI with a good portion under 25% of normal), the
rainfall is needed to alleviate the short term dryness.
Unfortunately, heavier rainfall will miss some of the driest areas
over the w. Svr risk appears to be very limited based on current
instability and widespread cloud cover limiting any additional
buildup of instability. In addition, deep layer shear has fallen off
to under 25kt this aftn. Shra will wind down overnight, but may
linger for most of the night over the e in cyclonic flow immediately
following passage of the low-level trof. Fog is likely present over
western Lake Superior after the rainfall of the last 24hrs, and this
fog will affect areas near the lake thru the evening under wnw
winds. Fog may expand inland for a time toward and after sunset.
Active late aftn is likely on the way Tue. Shortwave currently over
MT will move across northern MN Tue aftn and will reach Upper MI Tue
evening. W and WNW mid-level flow are the most favorable regimes for
warm season strong to svr storms in Upper MI, and westerly flow will
be present on Tue. In addition, low-level wind fields will be
westerly, supporting better low-level convergence as aftn winds
develop a lake breeze component off the Lakes. This is especially so
over the e half of the fcst area. Consensus of 12z guidance is for
MLCAPES to increase to around 1000j/kg in an environment of 30-40kt
of deep layer shear. Expect sct shra/tstms to develop after 18z.
However, Keweenaw likely won`t see any shra under stabilizing
westerly winds off Lake Superior. Hail will be the main risk with
wetbulb zero heights favorably positioned in the 8-10ft layer. Dry
mid-levels are missing to enhance wind risk, but strong winds still
a possibility. Will be warm, summer day with highs mostly in the
upper 70s/lwr 80s. Will also be breezy with mixed layer winds
supporting gusts to 20-25mph and at times 30mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 433 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
The active convective weather continues into this forecast period,
with a brief break likely for most in Upper Michigan on Wednesday,
save a slight chance of thunderstorms in the east (low confidence in
this coming to fruition). From Thursday into the weekend, the U.P.
will linger in an unsettled pattern that consists of weak shortwaves
riding along the periphery of mid- to upper-level ridging,
increasingly amplifying by the end of this weekend. Given this type
of setup, longer-range models are struggling to come into agreement
on the finer details, as is typical, yielding nearly daily PoPs, but
only due to the sporadic nature of the expected activity.
Summer has finally arrived (and not just officially) as temperatures
steadily rise and linger in the 70s (near the lakeshores) and 80s
(more widespread, inland) for highs each day. Lows will respond
accordingly, with widespread 50s to around the 60 degree mark
closest to the WI border. As already alluded to, instability will
become increasingly available as well, allowing for those
aforementioned thunderstorm chances to ramp up throughout this
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 833 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
A low pres system lifting thru the Upper Great Lakes produced shra
and a few tsra this evening/early evening, mainly impacting
KSAW. Coverage of shra will be more isolated to the w, so only
VCSH was mentioned in fcst at KIWD/KCMX. At KIWD conditions have
already improved to VFR as somewhat drier air has worked into the
area. KCMX will see LIFR to possibly VLIFR conditions into the
evening as cool/moist marine layer upslopes to that terminal under
wnw winds, but then influx of drier air will allow for improvement
to VFR late tonight. KSAW should see prevailing MVFR conditions
into this evening with the pcpn, but as winds shift to downslope
westerly direction overnight drier air will result in rapid
improvement to VFR overnight. Breezy w winds gusting to 20-30kt
are expected at all terminals on Tue. VFR conditions will likely
prevail thru the day on Tuesday but an upper disturbance moving in
late afternoon will bring an increasing chance for shra and tsra
at KIWD and KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 427 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019
Sfc low pres will lift ne of Lake Superior tonight. Until the low
passes, se winds over the e half of Lake Superior will continue to
gust to 15-25kt, and up to 30kt at high obs platforms. As the low
lifts ne, westerly winds gusting to around 20kt will develop from w
to e. High obs platforms could see gusts to 25-30kt. Westerly
winds will continue Tue, mostly in the 10-20kt range though gusts
to 20- 25kt are expected across the w half of the lake, especially
around the w and n side of the Keweenaw. Winds will be slightly
weaker on Wed, then light on Thu as high pres ridging arrives.
Light winds will continue on Fri.
Areas of fog have developed on Lake Superior. This fog may be
locally dense tonight, but the fog will clear out from w to e late
tonight and Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson