Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/24/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Low
pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Monday, with the
trailing cold front coming through early Tuesday. Surface
ridging is likely to build into the region during the second
half of the week. A weak cold front will move across the region
on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MCS moving into WV is dying and dropping south. Not even the
blowoff from it should make a sprinkle in Central PA. HRRR and
RAP are still dry thru sunrise holding the next wave (central IN
and KY) off as it loses punch. May take the fog back out as 10
PM temp at KN38 (Wellsboro) is 68F. Air is still dry in the NE
(45F dewpoint), but dropping 20F in 8 hours might be tough to
do. Will just nudge mins up a couple of degs there and maybe a
deg elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Moisture continues to slowly increase across western and central
PA on Monday, with low shower chances limited to the western
third to half of central PA in the morning as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio Valley. The warm front is slower to
move NE than previous runs, and likely only reaches the Laurels
by evening. Clouds will increase from SW to NE throughout the
day, with most areas averaging mostly cloudy. Eastern areas
should stay dry, but as already mentioned, best shower chances
indicated ahead of the approaching warm front. Better chance of
rain will accompany the cold front later Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After the Monday night FROPA and improvement on Tuesday, building
heights are expected across the Mid Atlantic region late Tuesday
into Wednesday will bring a return to dry weather.
Another weak cold front will move across the region on Thursday.
Much of the week will be dry with temperatures typical for late
June.
Made some minor changes. Looks like the cold front on Tuesday moves
east of the area a little sooner now.
Still maybe a shower or storm at some point on Thursday, but
the next cold front is weak, more like a weak wind shift line.
Some variation for later next weekend with the upper lvl system.
Models show an abnormally deep upper lvl trough, similar to what
we had here late Friday. At the current time, just have a chc
in for showers and storms, as the upper lvl trough looks like it
lags the sfc cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure ridge remains over the area into Monday. This will
bring minimal clouds and widespread VFR conditions. Last night
there was only brief periods of IFR at BFD and not much more is
expected this evening either.
Showers and few thunderstorms will move into the area Monday
afternoon and exit off to the east later Tuesday, as a cold
front moves east of the area by Tuesday evening. Periods of MVFR
to IFR are possible after 15Z west to east.
.Outlook...
Mon...Ceiling restrictions poss in rain showers western half.
Tue...Scattered showers. Restrictions poss mainly NW half.
Wed...No sig wx expected.
Thu...Chance of showers and storms.
Fri...No sig wx expected.
Sat...Chance of showers and storms.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue west of Maverick County west of
the Rio Grande. Convection allowing models continue to show these
weakening further as they gradually drift eastward toward the border
before dying shortly after crossing into southern Maverick County.
Meanwhile, a complex of thunderstorms are ongoing across North Texas
and are heading southward into Central Texas. Convection allowing
models suggest this should be reaching the county warning area
(Llano, Burnet, Williamson Counties) in the 2 to 3 AM time frame.
Primary hazards will be strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe
criteria hail will also be possible, but given the fact that it
should be a fairly well defined linear system, this should temper the
hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for Llano,
Burnet, Williamson, and Lee Counties through 4 am this morning. Some
pockets of locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. The line of
showers/storms should continue to weaken as it heads into a less
favorable convective environment as we head toward the 4 am to 7 am
time frame, at which point it should be east of Interstate 35. A few
models then indicate the possibility of another MCS moving south out
of north-central Texas and into the northern portions of the region
around 10 am, with it continuing to move south through the rest of
the morning and into the early to mid afternoon hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all sites with MVFR ceilings expected to build in
overnight. Line of thunderstorms currently over North Central TX
will track SE and is anticipated to clip our NE counties. Current
thinking is that only AUS will be impacted by these storms late
tonight. Convection is also firing over the Mexican Mountains which
is tracking close to the Rio Grande. VCTS is in for DRT for the next
few hours to account for this activity.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Area radars showing mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the far east part of south central Texas this afternoon. This
activity is expected to linger around through late this afternoon
before a break occurs or comes to an end for a short period. HiRes
models are having some disagreement on the tonight and overnight
forecast period as couple of complexes of storms develop over
central and west Texas and push into the Hill Country and Rio
Grande. The more aggressive is the ARW solution which brings first
complex of storms around 7 pm/ 8 pm time frame and moves to the
southeast into the coastal plains. The HRRR and RAP models do not
show a whole lot with this feature. Now, even global models pick up
on the northern complex forecast to develop over central Texas
ahead of a weak frontal boundary and the passage of an upper level
trough over the Southern Plains.
If everything comes together, the complex of storms is forecast to
push across the northern Hill Country close to midnight tonight and
into the far east part of south central Texas overnight.
SPC Convective Day One Outlook has a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms area along and to the north of a Llano, Williamson and
Lee counties line but the marginal risk extends for much of the
eastern half of the area. The main weather threats for the period are
damaging winds and large hail.
The complex breaks overnight as it moves into the coastal plains
with lingering activity across the southern half of the area at
least through mid Monday morning.
Another pulse of energy resulting in a complex of storms is forecast
for Monday evening into the overnight hours to affect parts of the
Hill Country. Same deal with this other complex. Any storms that
manage to develop have the potential to become strong and even
severe with main weather threats being damaging winds and large hail.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
An upper level ridge builds by Tuesday into the rest of the week with
isolated to scattered showers and storms across the coastal plains.
Relative dry weather conditions are expected to persist for much of
the area through next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 73 90 73 / 50 50 40 40 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 92 72 90 73 / 50 50 40 40 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 92 72 89 72 / 30 50 40 40 30
Burnet Muni Airport 72 90 71 89 71 / 50 50 40 40 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 97 75 92 73 / 20 10 10 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 92 72 90 72 / 60 50 40 40 20
Hondo Muni Airport 78 96 73 92 72 / 20 30 40 40 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 93 72 90 72 / 40 50 40 40 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 92 74 91 74 / 50 50 40 40 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 79 93 73 90 73 / 30 40 40 40 30
Stinson Muni Airport 79 93 74 90 73 / 20 30 40 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...BMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1124 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
-Locally heavy rain possible tonight, especially south of I-96
-More showers and storms Monday; some strong storms possible
mainly south and east of Grand Rapids
-Summer-like for most of next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
It appears the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain across our
area for the remainder of the night has diminished. Instability
largely remained off to our south and west this evening and we do
not see a change in that the rest of the night. CAPE is nil at
this point and is not forecast to crest 500 j/kg the rest of the
night.
We remain in a high PWAT regime so some locally heavier
swaths of rain are possible tonight, but the low level jet only
marginally strengthens (to 35 knots) around 06z, but quickly
begins to diminish by 09z by both the HRRR and the RAP13. Could
see some heavier showers developing on the low level jet, but not
expecting widespread heavy rain. The HREF is hinting at a few
locations seeing an inch between 06z and 12z, but it certainly
doesn`t look likely at this point. A better bet would be areas of
light to moderate rain drifting north through the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
We will maintain the flood watch. Models continue to show a rapid
increase in the pwat values to up around 2 inches. Instability
arrives as well. One mid level vort max lifts out of IL this
evening and should support considerable shower and thunderstorm
activity. The low level jet increases to near 40 knots and is
aimed at the I94 corridor from 02z to 07z. Thus a window for
focused thunderstorm activity exists and will need to be monitored
for potentially excessive amounts of rain. As for the severe
potential...local wind gusts look to be the main threat
considering the low level jet that will be in the area.
Additional storms look likely for Monday into Monday evening. This
is when a negatively tilted mid level wave tracks through MI. The
existence of a high pwat airmass...instability and lift support
the active pattern. If low clouds persist during the day and hold
back the heating there is some potential fewer storms could occur.
Deep layer shear does increase in the afternoon so organized
storms are possible. Locally heavy rain is possible.
Another vort max arrives Tuesday night. This could support a few
storms as instability will exist. Toward the end of the week
additional storms look possible. This is when the warm front will
be pushing in from the southwest but may encounter a northwest mid
level flow that could support increased storm development.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
A warm front will lift north through the area tonight which will
result in lowering ceilings across the entire area. IFR conditions
are expected to develop between 06z and 12z. An area of showers
with some embedded thunderstorms will lift north through the TAF
sites between 00z and 06z.
The ceilings will slowly lift on Monday with conditions becoming
VFR once again during the afternoon. A chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists once again on Monday afternoon.
Winds will swing from southeast this evening, to south late
tonight and southwest on Monday. Winds will generally be between
5-15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
Gusty southeast winds this evening will weaken somewhat overnight
as the flow turns more to the south late at night. Storms will be
around that could cause local high wind gusts. The wind will
pickup from the southwest then west late Monday and more so Monday
night as a front pushes through. Headlines will likely be needed
then for small craft and beachgoers.
Some fog looks possible tonight into Monday as the high moisture
airmass interacts with the cold water of Lake MI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019
Several rounds of storms are possible through Monday. A general
area of a half inch to an inch of basin averaged rain looks
likely for much of the CWA. Localized swaths of heavier
precipitation could be much higher...potentially enough to cause
flooding. The rain is not expected to cause a significant rise to
resume in the rivers. I think Jackson would be most prone tonight
if a heavy swath of rain falls over that part of the Grand Basin.
It could caused a sharp rise. Close monitoring will be needed as a
risk for more rain than forecasted exists which could allow for
greater impacts on the basins.
The rest of the week will feature storms from time to time but at
this time high basin averaged qpf values are not forecasted.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MIZ064>067-071>074.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.AVIATION...
A cluster of storms over North Texas will race south overnight
and will cross area TAF sites between 06-12z. The storms will
likely produce gusty winds as they move across the region. Low
level convergence will remain strong as the outflow boundary moves
south and favorable jet dynamics will also aid in lift. Have
maintained mention of wind gusts with the storms. A mix of
VFR/MVFR ceilings this evening will transition to MVFR by 06z.
Subsidence in the wake of the overnight storms should allow VFR
conditions to develop between 15-18z Monday. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM [Rest of Afternoon through Monday]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will tend to
die off this evening with loss of daytime heating. Storms have
been more clustered and intense ahead of a short wave trough
lifting northeast across the area. At this time this slightly more
intense deeper convection...with some lightning...now over
northern parts of the forecast area and this trend should continue
as the short wave lifts northeast.
Tonight all convective allowing models show a band of
thunderstorms moving from north to south across the area. NMM and
ARW WRF runs most aggressive in holding the line together...all
the way to the coast. HRRR and especially TTU WRF tend to break up
the line as it progresses through the area. All 4 runs suggest
squall line would be entering forecast area...up around
Caldwell... Bryan and Madisonville around 06Z or 1 am...give or
take...then reaching the coast toward daybreak. 12km NAM a little
slower keeping storms in the area into daylight hours Monday
morning. Some of these could be strong to severe...especially
northern zones...with damaging winds the main threat. SPC has
northern third of forecast area in slight risk...remainder just
one level down in Marginal.
Monday...will likely see a break once the line of storms push
through with just some isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible after line pushes off the coast. Also not expected to be
as hot as recent days. This afternoon we saw several sites exceed
heat index levels...and issued a heat advisory for southern half
of forecast area. Don`t expect that to be an issue tomorrow.
Reilly
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Sunday]...
We may have to keep an eye on things to the NW once again for Mon
night as models are hinting at the possibility of another MCS
developing over North Central TX overnight and moving it SSE
toward our CWA through early Tue morning. However, there is not a
lot of confidence with this as there still a lot of questions
concerning how worked over the airmass will be (from Mon`s
activity). At any rate, there will be plenty of heating/some
lingering moisture for perhaps widely scattered activity by Tue
afternoon.
With a surface high pressure/upper ridge building into the region
from the east by Tue, rain chances should be decreasing Weds/Thur.
Any activity will likely be during the afternoon and isolated. By
the end of the week, long-range guidance seems to be keeping with
the idea of a slightly increased POPs as the Gulf opens up (via a
weakness region between the main upper ridge). 41
MARINE...
Elevated winds/seas will continue over the coastal waters tonight
with slightly lower wind speeds across the bays. Models are still
indicating the approach/passage of strong storms into SE TX
overnight then reaching the Upper TX coastal waters by early Mon
morning. Winds/seas will be higher in and near these
thunderstorms.
With high pressure building into the region from the east by Tue,
we`ll begin to see increasingly decreased winds/seas at that time.
This weak surface high is expected to linger over the NW Gulf for
much of the week with generally light/moderate onshore winds
prevailing over the marine waters. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 91 73 92 73 / 70 50 40 30 20
Houston (IAH) 78 92 77 92 76 / 70 60 30 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 87 80 90 80 / 60 70 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller...
Wharton.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1108 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
The first round of showers and storms has diminished and is
exiting the state. However, another round of showers and storms is
approaching the Cumberland Basin region. Keeping thunder in the
forecast since lightning continues to be prominent, especially in
the incoming storms in south-central Kentucky. The main threats
for this round will be heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning.
This line is expected to diminish as it progresses over eastern
Kentucky tonight, but with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg still in the
south, some gusty winds will continue to be possible. Updated the
HWO to better match trends and also updated PoPs to reflect
current radar trends as well. A new ZFP was also sent. Current
temperatures across our area range from the upper 60s to lower
70s. Updates have been sent to the web and to NDFD.
UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
The line of showers and storms that affected west-central
Kentucky earlier this evening has progressed further east and is
now located over Sandy Hook down through London. Although storms
were expected to decrease as the line moved east because of
limited shear, the line has persisted so far this evening. DCAPE
values over 1000 J/kg in east-central Kentucky have most likely
aided in this. Furthermore, the London ASOS reported a wind gust
of 43 knots in the past hour. At this point, expecting the showers
and storms to continue to persist through the far east for the
next few hours, with the main threats gusty winds and heavy rain.
However, CAPE and shear are less in this area compared to earlier
values in the west. Therefore, the line should begin to decrease
somewhat, especially with the loss of daytime heating. Will
continue to monitor this evening and update as needed. Updates
have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 642 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms has entered south-
central Kentucky early this evening. A wind gust of 33 knots was
reported at Monticello and downed trees have also been reported in
this area in the past half hour. The HRRR has not handled the
development of this line very well; however, it is expected to
gradually weaken as it progresses further eastward due to limited
shear and decreasing instability. Have updated PoPs to better
account for this. Also monitoring a second round of showers and
thunderstorms in western Kentucky. Although, it will remain to be
seen if eastern Kentucky can recover from this first round enough
to maintain any thunderstorm chances later this evening into
tonight. A new ZFP was sent. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to
the web.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
A warm front lifting north across the Commonwealth has brought the
return of muggy summertime conditions to eastern Kentucky, with
surface dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. This has primed the
local airmass to support a surface-based CAPE gradient with values
of 1.5-3 kJ/kg. These higher values across the Bluegrass and Lake
Cumberland regions will support continuation of a line of storms
currently progressing eastward west of the I-65 corridor. Local
shear values however remain anemic, so this line and any additional
development downstream will remain disorganized and be rather pulsy
in nature. Nonetheless, could see a few briefly robust updrafts
capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. This threat
will deteriorate eastward into the Big Sandy region and far
southeast Kentucky as instability drops off and distance from an
upper impulse, moving through the lower Ohio Valley, increases.
Convection will simmer down in intensity later this evening with the
best chance for lingering showers being nearer to the Ohio River.
Not banking on widespread fog development at this point given
persistent low-mid level cloud cover, but could very well see some
in eastern river valleys as decoupling occurs later this
evening/tonight. Will have to monitor clearing trends in terms of
fog potential, especially in areas that receive rain.
Increasing southwest flow will take hold to begin the week with
eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of a nearly stacked low near the
western Great Lakes. This will support 0-6 km bulk shear values of
near 40 knots into the afternoon, suggesting genuine storm
organization given lingering clouds do not inhibit instability too
strongly. Nonetheless, height falls downstream of the western Great
Lakes larger scale wave and close proximity of the right entrance
region of an upper jet will promote plenty of forcing for ascent
along/ahead of a surface trough/front. Any hail that develops should
be less than dime size or so given relatively high freezing
levels, with the likely greater hazard being damaging wind gusts
as storms congeal in a linear fashion. Flooding concerns will be
lowered by storm motions of 45-50 mph, but will have to watch for
training through the afternoon.
Drier air will slowly filter in Monday night behind the departing
system as stubborn clouds keep temperatures seasonably mild.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
The period is expected to begin with an upper level low over
the Great Lakes moving into Ontario and a 500 mb trough axis
extending to the south moving east of the region early in the
period with westerly somewhat zonal flow from the Plains to the
eastern Conus. Heights should rise during the day on Tuesday in
the wake of this system as a ridge builds into the Southeast
Conus. At the surface, a surface boundary should dissipate near
the region Tue to Tuesday night with ridging building over the
Southern Appalachians.
Another weak shortwave trough should approach the TN and
Lower OH Valley area Tue night with the wave passing south of KY
and then dissipating over the Southeast while another northern
stream wave will move through the Great Lakes leaving the region
generally split between the two with sfc high pressure dominating.
Locally, height rises are anticipated again from Wed night into
Thu as ridging builds over Southern Rockies and Southern Plains
and extends into the MS Valley and eventually north through the
Plains. Ridging should also build over and remain near Bermuda and
into portions of the Southeast. A weakness between the ridges
over the Southeast to MS Valley region should persist into the
weekend, while a trough moves into the Maritimes and the
Northeast. Deeper moisture should return north starting on Thu and
linger into the weekend. Surface high pressure should remain in
place across the Appalachians into the weekend, though a cold
front will drop south of the Great Lakes associated with the
trough moving into the Maritimes and Northeast. This boundary may
reach the area to end the weekend.
Chances for convection will linger into early in the period, but
should diminish during the day on Tuesday. Dry weather should
prevail from late Tuesday into Thursday night. As moisture
increases, daytime heating will lead to isolated convection
mainly across the south and southeast for Friday. Chances will
return areawide with the trough passing into the Northeast this
weekend and a boundary beginning to approach from the north with
chances peaking on Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will remain near normal for early Summer with the
warmest days from Thu to Sat with upper 80s common. Overnight lows
will range in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
Currently, a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
making its way across eastern Kentucky. This has affected SME,
LOZ, and SYM so far, thus VCTS is mentioned at these locations for
the next couple of hours. Did not include thunder in the TAFs at
JKL or SJS at this time, since most of the activity has been
concentrated in the west. However, may need to revisit this for
these two sites depending on how the showers and storms evolve as
the line progresses eastward. Valley fog is also possible for the
overnight after the showers exit. Uncertainty remains if the TAF
sites would be affected, but did include low-end MVFR for SME and
LOZ. Another concern towards dawn will be LLWS, but mainly for
east-central Kentucky. But, this will be short lived. Another
round of showers and potential thunderstorms is then expected
tomorrow afternoon. Increased sustained winds around 10 knots and
some wind gusts are likely tomorrow afternoon as well.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CGAL
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
929 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
Precipitation thus far this evening has struggled to spread
north-northeast from the lower MS Valley. What little has occurred
has been light and periodically skirting the far southern CWA.
There are indications in the new NAM and HRRR runs that as the
central Plains upper trof continues to move east tonight, large
scale ascent will increase and the mid level flow will back
providing better isentropic ascent/upglide. This will occur after
06z, should result in showers spreading at least into southern
parts of the CWA with increasingly scattered coverage with
northern extent. The best chances for precipitation after 12z will
be from eastern MO into southwest IL.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
The latest round of mainly showers is exiting our forecast area,
mainly affecting areas to the south and east of STL currently. The
severe storm threat with this in the forecast area is low. Plenty
of cloud cover across the region thanks to ample convective clouds
downstream and this, along with the rain, has kept temperatures in
check once again with readings only in the 70s.
We are still expecting another round of precipitation tonight as the
main upper level shortwave approaches and will result in increased
broadscale lift ahead of it. Once it gets closer to our area, by
late this evening and into the overnight, it will work on what
should still be a moist column and should not have too much issue
generating new showers with isolated thunderstorms possible due to
the limited instability. Maintained likely PoPs for a few hours
tonight with the precipitation coverage for much of this period
closer to scattered. QPF will be limited as well, and do not see
any flooding concerns at this time.
The upper TROF axis is expected to be nearly through our region by
12z/Mon and will complete its trek during Monday morning, ending any
residual chances for showers at that time. Some deep cyclonic flow
will linger in the northern forecast area around Quincy into the
early afternoon and held on to PoPs in this area the longest.
A much drier airmass is then set to build into our region late
Monday and continue into Monday night, finally giving us a period of
dry weather.
Thanks to better sunshine and a favorable gusty westerly flow that
will promote deep mixing, should see max temps on Monday higher than
persistence, but still below normal, with readings peaking in the
upper 70s and lower 80s most locations. After lows tonight in the
60s, look for another night in the 60s Monday night, although a few
spots may even bottom out in the 50s--a rare treat this time of
year.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
A drier weather pattern consisting of rising heights leading to
establishment of a large upper RIDGE over the central CONUS still
looks probable for much of this period. However, the main change
from 24hrs ago is the delay in the building in of the upper RIDGE by
about a day, instead keeping lower mid level heights and a NW flow
pattern in place for Tuesday.
This delay in the RIDGE should allow a surface cold front to edge
into northern MO and central IL late on Tuesday and result in a
chance for thunderstorms. The best instability looks lodged back
into western MO but some model guidance is suggesting MCS
development that could track southeast. For now, have added
mentionable PoPs for areas to the N and W of STL metro, mainly
Tuesday night. Plenty of instability to initially feed off of, and
justifies the Marginal SPC Day 3 risk.
Otherwise, the remainder of this period will feature above normal
temperatures with mainly below normal PoPs. While MCS potential is
there, signals are simply too weak this far out to commit to
anything above CLIMO.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
Stratocu across the region is not completely uniform which is
resulting in anywhere from FEW to BKN coverage across the region
early this evening. I think the general trend through the later
part of the evening should be for MVFR ceilings to become more
uniform. There will also be a threat of scattered showers across
the region beginning later this evening and continuing overnight.
The coverage of the showers is in question and should be greatest
south of the terminals hence I only have VCSH mentioned at this
time. A cold front will move through the area on Monday morning
resulting in increasing and gusty westerly winds and rising cloud
bases and more cumuliform cloud structure.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Stratocu across the region is not completely uniform which is
resulting in anywhere from FEW to BKN coverage across the region
early this evening. I think the general trend through the later
part of the evening should be for MVFR ceilings to become more
uniform at KSTL. There will also be a threat of scattered showers
later this evening and continuing overnight. The coverage of the
showers is in question and should be greatest south of KSTL
hence I only have VCSH mentioned at this time. A cold front will
move through the area on Monday morning resulting in increasing
and gusty westerly winds and rising cloud bases and more
cumuliform cloud structure.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a trof extending from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba to NM. Within the trof, a well-defined mid-
level low was along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, and a well-
defined shortwave was over ne CO. This southern wave will affect the
weather here on Mon/Mon night. In the sw flow ahead of the trof, one
shortwave was lifting out of nw WI across western Lake Superior.
Another was moving across western WI. Both are accompanied by more
organized shra. There has been very little lightning noted with
either shrotwave. A few -shra/sprinkles made it as far e as roughly
a Marquette to Menominee line today. Farther e, it`s been another
sunny day over the far eastern fcst area under lingering dry air
mass. With the sun, temps have risen to near 80F away from local
cooling along the Lakes. Clouds and sct shra have held temps to the
mid 60s/lwr 70s over the w.
Largely utilized satellite/radar trends for the fcst tonight. First
aforementioned shortwave is lifting across western Lake Superior
with one area of shra. Second wave over WI is lifting n and should
bring a more organized area of shra across w and central Upper MI
this evening into the early overnight. May not see much in the way
of pcpn following this wave later overnight into the morning hrs on
Mon given no evident upstream shortwave and the current gap in pcpn
upstream of the WI wave. Back to tonight, lingering dry air over the
e may erode most of the shra approaching that area during the
evening. Overnight into early Mon, dry air is finally pushed out and
the tail end of the shortwave may support a better opportunity of
shra across the e. Given the lack of thunder so far today and the
limited instability, dropped thunder mention tonight, but certainly
can`t totally rule a few isold rumbles of thunder. Clouds and
increasing moisture will keep temps up tonight. Expect mins in the
mid/upper 50s for most locations.
On Mon, attention turns to the vigorous shortwave now over ne CO. It
will lift ene, taking on a negative tilt and reaching the western
Great Lakes Mon evening. As forcing overspreads the area during the
aftn, expect an increase in shra coverage and some tsra, especially
across the interior w half where some instability builds in the
vcnty of low-level sfc troffing. Should be quite a bit of lower
clouds to hold down instability, so not expecting any svr storms.
Deep layer shear is stronger in the morning (40+kt) to support
organized storms, but falls off in the aftn to under 30kt when
storms are expected to develop. Still, should there be more heating
than anticipated, some strong storms will be a possibility. Locally
hvy rainfall will occur with some of the shra. Provided clouds
dominate, high temps on Mon should mostly be in the upper 60s/lower
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
A trough will be finally pushing through the Upper Great Lakes to
begin the long term period Monday night, bringing widespread rain
showers and maybe a few embedded, relatively weak thunderstorms. Wet
weather will slowly abate on Tuesday as the trough exits to the
north and east. Zonal flow then moves in on Wednesday and central
CONUS ridging will slowly build Thursday through the weekend. A
summery air mass will settle in mid to late week with occasional
shower/storm chances returning to the forecast late Thursday through
the weekend as shortwave activity traverses the region.
Monday night, the upper trough/sfc low will be nearly vertically
stacked and pushing north of Lake Superior through the morning. This
will quickly bring strengthening westerly flow into the region. If
the sfc low pushes far enough north during the day with strong winds
aloft mixing to the surface as depicted in the GFS, conditions may
become quite breezy in the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 mph,
perhaps even as high as 35 mph.
Rain will be exiting to the northeast midday Tuesday. From 00Z to
18Z Tuesday, QPF will likely range from a tenth or two over the far
west to perhaps a few pockets of 0.5-0.75" over the northeastern UP.
Including rainfall from now until 00Z Tuesday, widespread totals
near 1" seems likely, except perhaps over the far east. Localized
totals of up to 2" are still possible. There is a chance for a few
pop-up showers/isolated t-storms to materialize near the WI border
in the afternoon, and this may become more likely if clouds clear
out quickly in the morning there.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, skies should clear out and
temperatures will begin to warm. By Thursday, highs should be in the
low to mid 80s inland and low 70s right along Lake Superior. There
are some indications of a chance for lake-breeze/weak PVA induced
convection over the east on Wednesday afternoon, but precip chances
will gradually increase Thursday into the weekend as shortwaves ride
down the eastern edge of the building central CONUS ridge. With
warm, moist air in place (low 60s dew pts near WI border),
thunderstorm chances may finally be more noteworthy, and stronger
storms could finally work their way into the forecast if the timing
of forcing mechanisms matches with greatest instability.
Next weekend, models also depict a trough or even closed low on the
eastern flank of the ridge over Quebec. It may extend into the upper
Great Lakes region but for now is not expected to have much of an
effect on sensible UP weather. Nonetheless, it`ll be worth watching
for any westward shifts in future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
As moisture continues to increase into the Upper Great Lakes and
disturbances approach from the sw, bringing periods of shra, expect
deteriorating conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through the forecast
period. MVFR or near MVFR conditions at KIWD this evening will fall
to IFR overnight. At KCMX, VFR conditions this evening will fall to
MVFR overnight. At KSAW, VFR conditions will fall to MVFR overnight
and to IFR by 12z Mon. IFR conditions may only slowly improve to
MVFR Mon afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019
Generally, easterly winds will be in the 10-20kt range into Mon.
Winds will have more of a ne component over the western part of the
lake and more of a se component over the eastern part of the lake.
There will be locally stronger winds at times at higher obs
platforms, especially in the se flow over the eastern part of the
lake. In the wake of low pres lifting ne of Lake Superior Mon night,
stronger westerly winds in the 15-25kt range are expected for at
least part of Tue. Winds will diminish some for Wed before high pres
ridge brings light winds on Thu.
Finally, with a warmer/more humid air mass spreading into the Upper
Lakes through Mon, the addition of showers will likely lead to fog
development on Lake Superior, beginning first over western Lake
Superior tonight, then developing over more of the lake on Mon. The
fog could become locally dense, especially over western Lake
Supeior. Fog will clear out for Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...KCW
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.UPDATE...
FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
&&
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Line of storms just now pushing into our northwest corner. This
line appears to be outrunning the better forcing and it has
weakened over the last hour. HPX radar did show some velocity
imbound spikes but nothing too strong. Laps data showing a
decrease in the directional low level onvergence over the past
hour.
Sfc capes still appreciable with up to 3,000 j/kg across the mid
state. But an examination of the 850mb to 700 mb level shows much
lower values over our area compared to earlier values to our west.
Too me, Hrrr looks to be in reasonable shape as far as a future
depictuion goes. Will continue to monitor for any strengthening.
Still a good deal of sfc cape to work with.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED /
Scattered showers and thunderstorm have started to develop around
Middle TN at forecast time. A few of them could become strong with
gusts winds and small hail through about 6 pm. However, this isn`t
likely to be the show for today. Upstream, a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach the TN River
around 7 pm. As they near Middle TN, they will be passing through an
instability axis that should top out around 3000 J/Kg due to
environmental temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. A
lack of shear and modest mid-level lapse rate around 6.5-7.0 deg/km
should keep most of this evening`s activity below severe criteria.
However, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a few storms west of I-65
with some damaging wind gusts. By the time storms reach I-65 (maybe
just east of there), they should begin losing their punch. I have
illustrated this with PoPs falling off in the east prior to midnight.
Around sunrise tomorrow, yet another system should be knocking on
our door. This is likely going to be more synoptically driven
(versus diurnal in nature), which is why we`ll run the risk of at
least some strong storms as early as mid-morning. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system will press eastward
through the late morning and early afternoon hours and as they do,
we`ll run a slightly better chance of strong to severe storms east
of I-65, especially in the afternoon. Once again, damaging winds
will be the main threat. If there`s any silver lining to tomorrow,
models are consistently showing this thunderstorm development
getting east of the Cumberland Plateau prior to 7 pm.
The passage of tomorrow`s storms will signal an overall pattern
change. While we won`t run into a stretch of days where we`re dry,
at least we should be looking at more of a diurnal trend to
thunderstorms, much more summer-like in nature, bringing an end to
what seems to be an endless string of MCSs. On the downside, this
pattern change will come with temperatures much more summerish, too.
Highs in the low 90s will return on a regular basis, fueling those
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances each day this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A rather long but narrow band of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms is currently moving into the northwestern portions
of the mid state. Omega fields and cape values above the boundary
layer not at all as favorable as previous afternoons. Sfc based
capes still rather elevated. Storms have trended downward over the
last hour, which suggests activity is more momentum driven for
now. Hrrr model further suggests weakening.
So, for the taf areas, showers and storms for CKV in an hour or
so. Convection potential will continue a couple hours later for
BNA but not expecting much for CSV. Another system may impact the
area toward sunrise from west to east as the primary upper trough
axis and front pushes through. However, most of the forcing is
pre frontal and that activity looks rather weak. Should be a nice
afternoon on Monday as drier air moves in behind the trough axis.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 71 85 68 88 69 / 80 80 10 20 10
Clarksville 70 84 65 87 67 / 80 80 10 10 10
Crossville 68 81 63 82 63 / 50 80 30 30 10
Columbia 70 84 66 87 67 / 70 80 10 30 20
Lawrenceburg 70 84 67 86 67 / 50 70 20 30 20
Waverly 70 83 65 87 67 / 80 80 10 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....
&&
.AVIATION...
The storm complex over southern Oklahoma into northern Texas will
continue to move south this evening and overnight. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA may also affect parts of northwest Oklahoma between
24/0100Z and 24/0600Z. Low clouds are still expected to affect
roughly KSPS-KPNC and east Monday morning. Winds will generally be
light and highly variable in direction overnight, then turn mainly
northwest by mid-morning Monday. Winds will then gradually turn
generally clockwise during the afternoon.
CmS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Circulation around an upper-level wave over northeast Colorado is
helping support thunderstorm development along a surface cold
front this afternoon. This convection is forecast to grow into a
forward-propagating MCS and begin to shift more rapidly to the
southeast late this afternoon into this evening. The HRRR and
HRRRX have been handling today`s convection relatively well, and
its forecasts look reasonable, so based PoPs for this evening
fairly heavily on the HRRR ensemble.
Additional isolated storms may occur closer to the upper-level
low this evening, but the probability is too low to mention in the
forecast.
With surface boundaries still in the area, and some remaining
instability, low storm chances continue over part of our forecast
area tomorrow. Higher chances are in place for Tuesday, as another
(much weaker) wave aloft passes over the region.
For both Monday and Tuesday afternoons and evenings, instability
may be sufficient for isolated (Monday) or scattered (Tuesday)
severe thunderstorms. With weak vertical wind shear in place,
organized storms are unlikely.
As the upper ridge struggles to build over the southern Plains,
rain/storm chances dwindle slowly into mid/late week, and
temperatures begin a very slow climb. There are hints of a
tropical wave or some other circulation (depending on the model)
bringing some rain into Oklahoma early next week. Since small
features like this in later periods of the forecast don`t usually
materialize, this forecast doesn`t include its effects.
CmS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 63 86 68 88 / 20 10 10 20
Hobart OK 64 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 67 88 69 90 / 30 10 20 10
Gage OK 55 86 63 91 / 10 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 61 85 66 89 / 10 0 10 10
Durant OK 68 86 70 87 / 80 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ031-032-039>048-
050>052.
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ090.
&&
$$
10/26/23