Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/24/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Monday, with the trailing cold front coming through early Tuesday. Surface ridging is likely to build into the region during the second half of the week. A weak cold front will move across the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MCS moving into WV is dying and dropping south. Not even the blowoff from it should make a sprinkle in Central PA. HRRR and RAP are still dry thru sunrise holding the next wave (central IN and KY) off as it loses punch. May take the fog back out as 10 PM temp at KN38 (Wellsboro) is 68F. Air is still dry in the NE (45F dewpoint), but dropping 20F in 8 hours might be tough to do. Will just nudge mins up a couple of degs there and maybe a deg elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Moisture continues to slowly increase across western and central PA on Monday, with low shower chances limited to the western third to half of central PA in the morning as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. The warm front is slower to move NE than previous runs, and likely only reaches the Laurels by evening. Clouds will increase from SW to NE throughout the day, with most areas averaging mostly cloudy. Eastern areas should stay dry, but as already mentioned, best shower chances indicated ahead of the approaching warm front. Better chance of rain will accompany the cold front later Monday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the Monday night FROPA and improvement on Tuesday, building heights are expected across the Mid Atlantic region late Tuesday into Wednesday will bring a return to dry weather. Another weak cold front will move across the region on Thursday. Much of the week will be dry with temperatures typical for late June. Made some minor changes. Looks like the cold front on Tuesday moves east of the area a little sooner now. Still maybe a shower or storm at some point on Thursday, but the next cold front is weak, more like a weak wind shift line. Some variation for later next weekend with the upper lvl system. Models show an abnormally deep upper lvl trough, similar to what we had here late Friday. At the current time, just have a chc in for showers and storms, as the upper lvl trough looks like it lags the sfc cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure ridge remains over the area into Monday. This will bring minimal clouds and widespread VFR conditions. Last night there was only brief periods of IFR at BFD and not much more is expected this evening either. Showers and few thunderstorms will move into the area Monday afternoon and exit off to the east later Tuesday, as a cold front moves east of the area by Tuesday evening. Periods of MVFR to IFR are possible after 15Z west to east. .Outlook... Mon...Ceiling restrictions poss in rain showers western half. Tue...Scattered showers. Restrictions poss mainly NW half. Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu...Chance of showers and storms. Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of showers and storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... Showers and thunderstorms continue west of Maverick County west of the Rio Grande. Convection allowing models continue to show these weakening further as they gradually drift eastward toward the border before dying shortly after crossing into southern Maverick County. Meanwhile, a complex of thunderstorms are ongoing across North Texas and are heading southward into Central Texas. Convection allowing models suggest this should be reaching the county warning area (Llano, Burnet, Williamson Counties) in the 2 to 3 AM time frame. Primary hazards will be strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe criteria hail will also be possible, but given the fact that it should be a fairly well defined linear system, this should temper the hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for Llano, Burnet, Williamson, and Lee Counties through 4 am this morning. Some pockets of locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. The line of showers/storms should continue to weaken as it heads into a less favorable convective environment as we head toward the 4 am to 7 am time frame, at which point it should be east of Interstate 35. A few models then indicate the possibility of another MCS moving south out of north-central Texas and into the northern portions of the region around 10 am, with it continuing to move south through the rest of the morning and into the early to mid afternoon hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ AVIATION... VFR conditions at all sites with MVFR ceilings expected to build in overnight. Line of thunderstorms currently over North Central TX will track SE and is anticipated to clip our NE counties. Current thinking is that only AUS will be impacted by these storms late tonight. Convection is also firing over the Mexican Mountains which is tracking close to the Rio Grande. VCTS is in for DRT for the next few hours to account for this activity. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... Area radars showing mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms across the far east part of south central Texas this afternoon. This activity is expected to linger around through late this afternoon before a break occurs or comes to an end for a short period. HiRes models are having some disagreement on the tonight and overnight forecast period as couple of complexes of storms develop over central and west Texas and push into the Hill Country and Rio Grande. The more aggressive is the ARW solution which brings first complex of storms around 7 pm/ 8 pm time frame and moves to the southeast into the coastal plains. The HRRR and RAP models do not show a whole lot with this feature. Now, even global models pick up on the northern complex forecast to develop over central Texas ahead of a weak frontal boundary and the passage of an upper level trough over the Southern Plains. If everything comes together, the complex of storms is forecast to push across the northern Hill Country close to midnight tonight and into the far east part of south central Texas overnight. SPC Convective Day One Outlook has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms area along and to the north of a Llano, Williamson and Lee counties line but the marginal risk extends for much of the eastern half of the area. The main weather threats for the period are damaging winds and large hail. The complex breaks overnight as it moves into the coastal plains with lingering activity across the southern half of the area at least through mid Monday morning. Another pulse of energy resulting in a complex of storms is forecast for Monday evening into the overnight hours to affect parts of the Hill Country. Same deal with this other complex. Any storms that manage to develop have the potential to become strong and even severe with main weather threats being damaging winds and large hail. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... An upper level ridge builds by Tuesday into the rest of the week with isolated to scattered showers and storms across the coastal plains. Relative dry weather conditions are expected to persist for much of the area through next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 73 90 73 / 50 50 40 40 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 92 72 90 73 / 50 50 40 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 92 72 89 72 / 30 50 40 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 72 90 71 89 71 / 50 50 40 40 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 97 75 92 73 / 20 10 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 92 72 90 72 / 60 50 40 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 78 96 73 92 72 / 20 30 40 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 93 72 90 72 / 40 50 40 40 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 92 74 91 74 / 50 50 40 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 93 73 90 73 / 30 40 40 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 79 93 74 90 73 / 20 30 40 40 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...Hampshire Short-Term/Long-Term...BMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1124 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 -Locally heavy rain possible tonight, especially south of I-96 -More showers and storms Monday; some strong storms possible mainly south and east of Grand Rapids -Summer-like for most of next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 It appears the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain across our area for the remainder of the night has diminished. Instability largely remained off to our south and west this evening and we do not see a change in that the rest of the night. CAPE is nil at this point and is not forecast to crest 500 j/kg the rest of the night. We remain in a high PWAT regime so some locally heavier swaths of rain are possible tonight, but the low level jet only marginally strengthens (to 35 knots) around 06z, but quickly begins to diminish by 09z by both the HRRR and the RAP13. Could see some heavier showers developing on the low level jet, but not expecting widespread heavy rain. The HREF is hinting at a few locations seeing an inch between 06z and 12z, but it certainly doesn`t look likely at this point. A better bet would be areas of light to moderate rain drifting north through the area. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 We will maintain the flood watch. Models continue to show a rapid increase in the pwat values to up around 2 inches. Instability arrives as well. One mid level vort max lifts out of IL this evening and should support considerable shower and thunderstorm activity. The low level jet increases to near 40 knots and is aimed at the I94 corridor from 02z to 07z. Thus a window for focused thunderstorm activity exists and will need to be monitored for potentially excessive amounts of rain. As for the severe potential...local wind gusts look to be the main threat considering the low level jet that will be in the area. Additional storms look likely for Monday into Monday evening. This is when a negatively tilted mid level wave tracks through MI. The existence of a high pwat airmass...instability and lift support the active pattern. If low clouds persist during the day and hold back the heating there is some potential fewer storms could occur. Deep layer shear does increase in the afternoon so organized storms are possible. Locally heavy rain is possible. Another vort max arrives Tuesday night. This could support a few storms as instability will exist. Toward the end of the week additional storms look possible. This is when the warm front will be pushing in from the southwest but may encounter a northwest mid level flow that could support increased storm development. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 815 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A warm front will lift north through the area tonight which will result in lowering ceilings across the entire area. IFR conditions are expected to develop between 06z and 12z. An area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms will lift north through the TAF sites between 00z and 06z. The ceilings will slowly lift on Monday with conditions becoming VFR once again during the afternoon. A chance for showers and thunderstorms exists once again on Monday afternoon. Winds will swing from southeast this evening, to south late tonight and southwest on Monday. Winds will generally be between 5-15 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Gusty southeast winds this evening will weaken somewhat overnight as the flow turns more to the south late at night. Storms will be around that could cause local high wind gusts. The wind will pickup from the southwest then west late Monday and more so Monday night as a front pushes through. Headlines will likely be needed then for small craft and beachgoers. Some fog looks possible tonight into Monday as the high moisture airmass interacts with the cold water of Lake MI. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Several rounds of storms are possible through Monday. A general area of a half inch to an inch of basin averaged rain looks likely for much of the CWA. Localized swaths of heavier precipitation could be much higher...potentially enough to cause flooding. The rain is not expected to cause a significant rise to resume in the rivers. I think Jackson would be most prone tonight if a heavy swath of rain falls over that part of the Grand Basin. It could caused a sharp rise. Close monitoring will be needed as a risk for more rain than forecasted exists which could allow for greater impacts on the basins. The rest of the week will feature storms from time to time but at this time high basin averaged qpf values are not forecasted. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MIZ064>067-071>074. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Duke SYNOPSIS...MJS DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...Duke HYDROLOGY...MJS MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .AVIATION... A cluster of storms over North Texas will race south overnight and will cross area TAF sites between 06-12z. The storms will likely produce gusty winds as they move across the region. Low level convergence will remain strong as the outflow boundary moves south and favorable jet dynamics will also aid in lift. Have maintained mention of wind gusts with the storms. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings this evening will transition to MVFR by 06z. Subsidence in the wake of the overnight storms should allow VFR conditions to develop between 15-18z Monday. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM [Rest of Afternoon through Monday]... Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will tend to die off this evening with loss of daytime heating. Storms have been more clustered and intense ahead of a short wave trough lifting northeast across the area. At this time this slightly more intense deeper convection...with some over northern parts of the forecast area and this trend should continue as the short wave lifts northeast. Tonight all convective allowing models show a band of thunderstorms moving from north to south across the area. NMM and ARW WRF runs most aggressive in holding the line together...all the way to the coast. HRRR and especially TTU WRF tend to break up the line as it progresses through the area. All 4 runs suggest squall line would be entering forecast area...up around Caldwell... Bryan and Madisonville around 06Z or 1 am...give or take...then reaching the coast toward daybreak. 12km NAM a little slower keeping storms in the area into daylight hours Monday morning. Some of these could be strong to severe...especially northern zones...with damaging winds the main threat. SPC has northern third of forecast area in slight risk...remainder just one level down in Marginal. Monday...will likely see a break once the line of storms push through with just some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible after line pushes off the coast. Also not expected to be as hot as recent days. This afternoon we saw several sites exceed heat index levels...and issued a heat advisory for southern half of forecast area. Don`t expect that to be an issue tomorrow. Reilly LONG TERM [Monday Night through Sunday]... We may have to keep an eye on things to the NW once again for Mon night as models are hinting at the possibility of another MCS developing over North Central TX overnight and moving it SSE toward our CWA through early Tue morning. However, there is not a lot of confidence with this as there still a lot of questions concerning how worked over the airmass will be (from Mon`s activity). At any rate, there will be plenty of heating/some lingering moisture for perhaps widely scattered activity by Tue afternoon. With a surface high pressure/upper ridge building into the region from the east by Tue, rain chances should be decreasing Weds/Thur. Any activity will likely be during the afternoon and isolated. By the end of the week, long-range guidance seems to be keeping with the idea of a slightly increased POPs as the Gulf opens up (via a weakness region between the main upper ridge). 41 MARINE... Elevated winds/seas will continue over the coastal waters tonight with slightly lower wind speeds across the bays. Models are still indicating the approach/passage of strong storms into SE TX overnight then reaching the Upper TX coastal waters by early Mon morning. Winds/seas will be higher in and near these thunderstorms. With high pressure building into the region from the east by Tue, we`ll begin to see increasingly decreased winds/seas at that time. This weak surface high is expected to linger over the NW Gulf for much of the week with generally light/moderate onshore winds prevailing over the marine waters. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 91 73 92 73 / 70 50 40 30 20 Houston (IAH) 78 92 77 92 76 / 70 60 30 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 87 80 90 80 / 60 70 30 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend... Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria... Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller... Wharton. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...24 Aviation/Marine...43
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1108 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The first round of showers and storms has diminished and is exiting the state. However, another round of showers and storms is approaching the Cumberland Basin region. Keeping thunder in the forecast since lightning continues to be prominent, especially in the incoming storms in south-central Kentucky. The main threats for this round will be heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning. This line is expected to diminish as it progresses over eastern Kentucky tonight, but with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg still in the south, some gusty winds will continue to be possible. Updated the HWO to better match trends and also updated PoPs to reflect current radar trends as well. A new ZFP was also sent. Current temperatures across our area range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Updates have been sent to the web and to NDFD. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The line of showers and storms that affected west-central Kentucky earlier this evening has progressed further east and is now located over Sandy Hook down through London. Although storms were expected to decrease as the line moved east because of limited shear, the line has persisted so far this evening. DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg in east-central Kentucky have most likely aided in this. Furthermore, the London ASOS reported a wind gust of 43 knots in the past hour. At this point, expecting the showers and storms to continue to persist through the far east for the next few hours, with the main threats gusty winds and heavy rain. However, CAPE and shear are less in this area compared to earlier values in the west. Therefore, the line should begin to decrease somewhat, especially with the loss of daytime heating. Will continue to monitor this evening and update as needed. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 642 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms has entered south- central Kentucky early this evening. A wind gust of 33 knots was reported at Monticello and downed trees have also been reported in this area in the past half hour. The HRRR has not handled the development of this line very well; however, it is expected to gradually weaken as it progresses further eastward due to limited shear and decreasing instability. Have updated PoPs to better account for this. Also monitoring a second round of showers and thunderstorms in western Kentucky. Although, it will remain to be seen if eastern Kentucky can recover from this first round enough to maintain any thunderstorm chances later this evening into tonight. A new ZFP was sent. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 A warm front lifting north across the Commonwealth has brought the return of muggy summertime conditions to eastern Kentucky, with surface dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. This has primed the local airmass to support a surface-based CAPE gradient with values of 1.5-3 kJ/kg. These higher values across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions will support continuation of a line of storms currently progressing eastward west of the I-65 corridor. Local shear values however remain anemic, so this line and any additional development downstream will remain disorganized and be rather pulsy in nature. Nonetheless, could see a few briefly robust updrafts capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. This threat will deteriorate eastward into the Big Sandy region and far southeast Kentucky as instability drops off and distance from an upper impulse, moving through the lower Ohio Valley, increases. Convection will simmer down in intensity later this evening with the best chance for lingering showers being nearer to the Ohio River. Not banking on widespread fog development at this point given persistent low-mid level cloud cover, but could very well see some in eastern river valleys as decoupling occurs later this evening/tonight. Will have to monitor clearing trends in terms of fog potential, especially in areas that receive rain. Increasing southwest flow will take hold to begin the week with eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of a nearly stacked low near the western Great Lakes. This will support 0-6 km bulk shear values of near 40 knots into the afternoon, suggesting genuine storm organization given lingering clouds do not inhibit instability too strongly. Nonetheless, height falls downstream of the western Great Lakes larger scale wave and close proximity of the right entrance region of an upper jet will promote plenty of forcing for ascent along/ahead of a surface trough/front. Any hail that develops should be less than dime size or so given relatively high freezing levels, with the likely greater hazard being damaging wind gusts as storms congeal in a linear fashion. Flooding concerns will be lowered by storm motions of 45-50 mph, but will have to watch for training through the afternoon. Drier air will slowly filter in Monday night behind the departing system as stubborn clouds keep temperatures seasonably mild. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The period is expected to begin with an upper level low over the Great Lakes moving into Ontario and a 500 mb trough axis extending to the south moving east of the region early in the period with westerly somewhat zonal flow from the Plains to the eastern Conus. Heights should rise during the day on Tuesday in the wake of this system as a ridge builds into the Southeast Conus. At the surface, a surface boundary should dissipate near the region Tue to Tuesday night with ridging building over the Southern Appalachians. Another weak shortwave trough should approach the TN and Lower OH Valley area Tue night with the wave passing south of KY and then dissipating over the Southeast while another northern stream wave will move through the Great Lakes leaving the region generally split between the two with sfc high pressure dominating. Locally, height rises are anticipated again from Wed night into Thu as ridging builds over Southern Rockies and Southern Plains and extends into the MS Valley and eventually north through the Plains. Ridging should also build over and remain near Bermuda and into portions of the Southeast. A weakness between the ridges over the Southeast to MS Valley region should persist into the weekend, while a trough moves into the Maritimes and the Northeast. Deeper moisture should return north starting on Thu and linger into the weekend. Surface high pressure should remain in place across the Appalachians into the weekend, though a cold front will drop south of the Great Lakes associated with the trough moving into the Maritimes and Northeast. This boundary may reach the area to end the weekend. Chances for convection will linger into early in the period, but should diminish during the day on Tuesday. Dry weather should prevail from late Tuesday into Thursday night. As moisture increases, daytime heating will lead to isolated convection mainly across the south and southeast for Friday. Chances will return areawide with the trough passing into the Northeast this weekend and a boundary beginning to approach from the north with chances peaking on Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain near normal for early Summer with the warmest days from Thu to Sat with upper 80s common. Overnight lows will range in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 Currently, a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is making its way across eastern Kentucky. This has affected SME, LOZ, and SYM so far, thus VCTS is mentioned at these locations for the next couple of hours. Did not include thunder in the TAFs at JKL or SJS at this time, since most of the activity has been concentrated in the west. However, may need to revisit this for these two sites depending on how the showers and storms evolve as the line progresses eastward. Valley fog is also possible for the overnight after the showers exit. Uncertainty remains if the TAF sites would be affected, but did include low-end MVFR for SME and LOZ. Another concern towards dawn will be LLWS, but mainly for east-central Kentucky. But, this will be short lived. Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms is then expected tomorrow afternoon. Increased sustained winds around 10 knots and some wind gusts are likely tomorrow afternoon as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CGAL SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...CGAL
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
929 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Precipitation thus far this evening has struggled to spread north-northeast from the lower MS Valley. What little has occurred has been light and periodically skirting the far southern CWA. There are indications in the new NAM and HRRR runs that as the central Plains upper trof continues to move east tonight, large scale ascent will increase and the mid level flow will back providing better isentropic ascent/upglide. This will occur after 06z, should result in showers spreading at least into southern parts of the CWA with increasingly scattered coverage with northern extent. The best chances for precipitation after 12z will be from eastern MO into southwest IL. Glass && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 The latest round of mainly showers is exiting our forecast area, mainly affecting areas to the south and east of STL currently. The severe storm threat with this in the forecast area is low. Plenty of cloud cover across the region thanks to ample convective clouds downstream and this, along with the rain, has kept temperatures in check once again with readings only in the 70s. We are still expecting another round of precipitation tonight as the main upper level shortwave approaches and will result in increased broadscale lift ahead of it. Once it gets closer to our area, by late this evening and into the overnight, it will work on what should still be a moist column and should not have too much issue generating new showers with isolated thunderstorms possible due to the limited instability. Maintained likely PoPs for a few hours tonight with the precipitation coverage for much of this period closer to scattered. QPF will be limited as well, and do not see any flooding concerns at this time. The upper TROF axis is expected to be nearly through our region by 12z/Mon and will complete its trek during Monday morning, ending any residual chances for showers at that time. Some deep cyclonic flow will linger in the northern forecast area around Quincy into the early afternoon and held on to PoPs in this area the longest. A much drier airmass is then set to build into our region late Monday and continue into Monday night, finally giving us a period of dry weather. Thanks to better sunshine and a favorable gusty westerly flow that will promote deep mixing, should see max temps on Monday higher than persistence, but still below normal, with readings peaking in the upper 70s and lower 80s most locations. After lows tonight in the 60s, look for another night in the 60s Monday night, although a few spots may even bottom out in the 50s--a rare treat this time of year. TES .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A drier weather pattern consisting of rising heights leading to establishment of a large upper RIDGE over the central CONUS still looks probable for much of this period. However, the main change from 24hrs ago is the delay in the building in of the upper RIDGE by about a day, instead keeping lower mid level heights and a NW flow pattern in place for Tuesday. This delay in the RIDGE should allow a surface cold front to edge into northern MO and central IL late on Tuesday and result in a chance for thunderstorms. The best instability looks lodged back into western MO but some model guidance is suggesting MCS development that could track southeast. For now, have added mentionable PoPs for areas to the N and W of STL metro, mainly Tuesday night. Plenty of instability to initially feed off of, and justifies the Marginal SPC Day 3 risk. Otherwise, the remainder of this period will feature above normal temperatures with mainly below normal PoPs. While MCS potential is there, signals are simply too weak this far out to commit to anything above CLIMO. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Stratocu across the region is not completely uniform which is resulting in anywhere from FEW to BKN coverage across the region early this evening. I think the general trend through the later part of the evening should be for MVFR ceilings to become more uniform. There will also be a threat of scattered showers across the region beginning later this evening and continuing overnight. The coverage of the showers is in question and should be greatest south of the terminals hence I only have VCSH mentioned at this time. A cold front will move through the area on Monday morning resulting in increasing and gusty westerly winds and rising cloud bases and more cumuliform cloud structure. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Stratocu across the region is not completely uniform which is resulting in anywhere from FEW to BKN coverage across the region early this evening. I think the general trend through the later part of the evening should be for MVFR ceilings to become more uniform at KSTL. There will also be a threat of scattered showers later this evening and continuing overnight. The coverage of the showers is in question and should be greatest south of KSTL hence I only have VCSH mentioned at this time. A cold front will move through the area on Monday morning resulting in increasing and gusty westerly winds and rising cloud bases and more cumuliform cloud structure. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a trof extending from Saskatchewan/Manitoba to NM. Within the trof, a well-defined mid- level low was along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, and a well- defined shortwave was over ne CO. This southern wave will affect the weather here on Mon/Mon night. In the sw flow ahead of the trof, one shortwave was lifting out of nw WI across western Lake Superior. Another was moving across western WI. Both are accompanied by more organized shra. There has been very little lightning noted with either shrotwave. A few -shra/sprinkles made it as far e as roughly a Marquette to Menominee line today. Farther e, it`s been another sunny day over the far eastern fcst area under lingering dry air mass. With the sun, temps have risen to near 80F away from local cooling along the Lakes. Clouds and sct shra have held temps to the mid 60s/lwr 70s over the w. Largely utilized satellite/radar trends for the fcst tonight. First aforementioned shortwave is lifting across western Lake Superior with one area of shra. Second wave over WI is lifting n and should bring a more organized area of shra across w and central Upper MI this evening into the early overnight. May not see much in the way of pcpn following this wave later overnight into the morning hrs on Mon given no evident upstream shortwave and the current gap in pcpn upstream of the WI wave. Back to tonight, lingering dry air over the e may erode most of the shra approaching that area during the evening. Overnight into early Mon, dry air is finally pushed out and the tail end of the shortwave may support a better opportunity of shra across the e. Given the lack of thunder so far today and the limited instability, dropped thunder mention tonight, but certainly can`t totally rule a few isold rumbles of thunder. Clouds and increasing moisture will keep temps up tonight. Expect mins in the mid/upper 50s for most locations. On Mon, attention turns to the vigorous shortwave now over ne CO. It will lift ene, taking on a negative tilt and reaching the western Great Lakes Mon evening. As forcing overspreads the area during the aftn, expect an increase in shra coverage and some tsra, especially across the interior w half where some instability builds in the vcnty of low-level sfc troffing. Should be quite a bit of lower clouds to hold down instability, so not expecting any svr storms. Deep layer shear is stronger in the morning (40+kt) to support organized storms, but falls off in the aftn to under 30kt when storms are expected to develop. Still, should there be more heating than anticipated, some strong storms will be a possibility. Locally hvy rainfall will occur with some of the shra. Provided clouds dominate, high temps on Mon should mostly be in the upper 60s/lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 309 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 A trough will be finally pushing through the Upper Great Lakes to begin the long term period Monday night, bringing widespread rain showers and maybe a few embedded, relatively weak thunderstorms. Wet weather will slowly abate on Tuesday as the trough exits to the north and east. Zonal flow then moves in on Wednesday and central CONUS ridging will slowly build Thursday through the weekend. A summery air mass will settle in mid to late week with occasional shower/storm chances returning to the forecast late Thursday through the weekend as shortwave activity traverses the region. Monday night, the upper trough/sfc low will be nearly vertically stacked and pushing north of Lake Superior through the morning. This will quickly bring strengthening westerly flow into the region. If the sfc low pushes far enough north during the day with strong winds aloft mixing to the surface as depicted in the GFS, conditions may become quite breezy in the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 mph, perhaps even as high as 35 mph. Rain will be exiting to the northeast midday Tuesday. From 00Z to 18Z Tuesday, QPF will likely range from a tenth or two over the far west to perhaps a few pockets of 0.5-0.75" over the northeastern UP. Including rainfall from now until 00Z Tuesday, widespread totals near 1" seems likely, except perhaps over the far east. Localized totals of up to 2" are still possible. There is a chance for a few pop-up showers/isolated t-storms to materialize near the WI border in the afternoon, and this may become more likely if clouds clear out quickly in the morning there. Tuesday night through Wednesday night, skies should clear out and temperatures will begin to warm. By Thursday, highs should be in the low to mid 80s inland and low 70s right along Lake Superior. There are some indications of a chance for lake-breeze/weak PVA induced convection over the east on Wednesday afternoon, but precip chances will gradually increase Thursday into the weekend as shortwaves ride down the eastern edge of the building central CONUS ridge. With warm, moist air in place (low 60s dew pts near WI border), thunderstorm chances may finally be more noteworthy, and stronger storms could finally work their way into the forecast if the timing of forcing mechanisms matches with greatest instability. Next weekend, models also depict a trough or even closed low on the eastern flank of the ridge over Quebec. It may extend into the upper Great Lakes region but for now is not expected to have much of an effect on sensible UP weather. Nonetheless, it`ll be worth watching for any westward shifts in future model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 As moisture continues to increase into the Upper Great Lakes and disturbances approach from the sw, bringing periods of shra, expect deteriorating conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through the forecast period. MVFR or near MVFR conditions at KIWD this evening will fall to IFR overnight. At KCMX, VFR conditions this evening will fall to MVFR overnight. At KSAW, VFR conditions will fall to MVFR overnight and to IFR by 12z Mon. IFR conditions may only slowly improve to MVFR Mon afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 Generally, easterly winds will be in the 10-20kt range into Mon. Winds will have more of a ne component over the western part of the lake and more of a se component over the eastern part of the lake. There will be locally stronger winds at times at higher obs platforms, especially in the se flow over the eastern part of the lake. In the wake of low pres lifting ne of Lake Superior Mon night, stronger westerly winds in the 15-25kt range are expected for at least part of Tue. Winds will diminish some for Wed before high pres ridge brings light winds on Thu. Finally, with a warmer/more humid air mass spreading into the Upper Lakes through Mon, the addition of showers will likely lead to fog development on Lake Superior, beginning first over western Lake Superior tonight, then developing over more of the lake on Mon. The fog could become locally dense, especially over western Lake Supeior. Fog will clear out for Tue. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...KCW AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... && .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Line of storms just now pushing into our northwest corner. This line appears to be outrunning the better forcing and it has weakened over the last hour. HPX radar did show some velocity imbound spikes but nothing too strong. Laps data showing a decrease in the directional low level onvergence over the past hour. Sfc capes still appreciable with up to 3,000 j/kg across the mid state. But an examination of the 850mb to 700 mb level shows much lower values over our area compared to earlier values to our west. Too me, Hrrr looks to be in reasonable shape as far as a future depictuion goes. Will continue to monitor for any strengthening. Still a good deal of sfc cape to work with. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED / Scattered showers and thunderstorm have started to develop around Middle TN at forecast time. A few of them could become strong with gusts winds and small hail through about 6 pm. However, this isn`t likely to be the show for today. Upstream, a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach the TN River around 7 pm. As they near Middle TN, they will be passing through an instability axis that should top out around 3000 J/Kg due to environmental temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. A lack of shear and modest mid-level lapse rate around 6.5-7.0 deg/km should keep most of this evening`s activity below severe criteria. However, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a few storms west of I-65 with some damaging wind gusts. By the time storms reach I-65 (maybe just east of there), they should begin losing their punch. I have illustrated this with PoPs falling off in the east prior to midnight. Around sunrise tomorrow, yet another system should be knocking on our door. This is likely going to be more synoptically driven (versus diurnal in nature), which is why we`ll run the risk of at least some strong storms as early as mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will press eastward through the late morning and early afternoon hours and as they do, we`ll run a slightly better chance of strong to severe storms east of I-65, especially in the afternoon. Once again, damaging winds will be the main threat. If there`s any silver lining to tomorrow, models are consistently showing this thunderstorm development getting east of the Cumberland Plateau prior to 7 pm. The passage of tomorrow`s storms will signal an overall pattern change. While we won`t run into a stretch of days where we`re dry, at least we should be looking at more of a diurnal trend to thunderstorms, much more summer-like in nature, bringing an end to what seems to be an endless string of MCSs. On the downside, this pattern change will come with temperatures much more summerish, too. Highs in the low 90s will return on a regular basis, fueling those afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. A rather long but narrow band of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is currently moving into the northwestern portions of the mid state. Omega fields and cape values above the boundary layer not at all as favorable as previous afternoons. Sfc based capes still rather elevated. Storms have trended downward over the last hour, which suggests activity is more momentum driven for now. Hrrr model further suggests weakening. So, for the taf areas, showers and storms for CKV in an hour or so. Convection potential will continue a couple hours later for BNA but not expecting much for CSV. Another system may impact the area toward sunrise from west to east as the primary upper trough axis and front pushes through. However, most of the forcing is pre frontal and that activity looks rather weak. Should be a nice afternoon on Monday as drier air moves in behind the trough axis. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 85 68 88 69 / 80 80 10 20 10 Clarksville 70 84 65 87 67 / 80 80 10 10 10 Crossville 68 81 63 82 63 / 50 80 30 30 10 Columbia 70 84 66 87 67 / 70 80 10 30 20 Lawrenceburg 70 84 67 86 67 / 50 70 20 30 20 Waverly 70 83 65 87 67 / 80 80 10 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .DISCUSSION... The 00Z aviation discussion follows.... && .AVIATION... The storm complex over southern Oklahoma into northern Texas will continue to move south this evening and overnight. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may also affect parts of northwest Oklahoma between 24/0100Z and 24/0600Z. Low clouds are still expected to affect roughly KSPS-KPNC and east Monday morning. Winds will generally be light and highly variable in direction overnight, then turn mainly northwest by mid-morning Monday. Winds will then gradually turn generally clockwise during the afternoon. CmS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ DISCUSSION... Circulation around an upper-level wave over northeast Colorado is helping support thunderstorm development along a surface cold front this afternoon. This convection is forecast to grow into a forward-propagating MCS and begin to shift more rapidly to the southeast late this afternoon into this evening. The HRRR and HRRRX have been handling today`s convection relatively well, and its forecasts look reasonable, so based PoPs for this evening fairly heavily on the HRRR ensemble. Additional isolated storms may occur closer to the upper-level low this evening, but the probability is too low to mention in the forecast. With surface boundaries still in the area, and some remaining instability, low storm chances continue over part of our forecast area tomorrow. Higher chances are in place for Tuesday, as another (much weaker) wave aloft passes over the region. For both Monday and Tuesday afternoons and evenings, instability may be sufficient for isolated (Monday) or scattered (Tuesday) severe thunderstorms. With weak vertical wind shear in place, organized storms are unlikely. As the upper ridge struggles to build over the southern Plains, rain/storm chances dwindle slowly into mid/late week, and temperatures begin a very slow climb. There are hints of a tropical wave or some other circulation (depending on the model) bringing some rain into Oklahoma early next week. Since small features like this in later periods of the forecast don`t usually materialize, this forecast doesn`t include its effects. CmS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 86 68 88 / 20 10 10 20 Hobart OK 64 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 67 88 69 90 / 30 10 20 10 Gage OK 55 86 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 61 85 66 89 / 10 0 10 10 Durant OK 68 86 70 87 / 80 20 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ031-032-039>048- 050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ090. && $$ 10/26/23