Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/23/19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

 940 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remaining in control will yield dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures through the weekend. A cold front
associated with an area of low pressure tracking across Ontario
will move into the region Monday night and Tuesday. This front
likely stalls along the eastern seaboard through at least
midweek. Periods of showers and storms are in the forecast for
much of the week with the boundary nearby. Another cold front
approaches from the northwest by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 AM update...
Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass has allowed
temperatures to fall quickly this evening. Made some short term
temperature adjustments to account for this although overnight
lows still look reasonable. No other changes.

230 PM Update...

High pressure currently over the Great Lakes will build
southeastward into the region tonight. The high will remain
overhead Sunday and Sunday night.

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows a narrow plume of smoke from
the Manitoba-Ontario wildfires being advecting around the
upstream ridge, then around downstream trough and into Upstate
NY. The latest HRRR smoke model shows the smoke continuing to
move overhead at high levels through the weekend. A hazy sky may
be even more notable on Sunday with smoke concentrations
forecast to increase, especially across our eastern zones.

Remainder of the afternoon... Adjusted temperatures for this
afternoon up by 2-4 degrees in most places based on hourly
temperature trends over the past few hours. The end result is
highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Tonight... Winds will subside toward sunset, becoming light
overnight. Despite good radiational cooling conditions under
clear skies and light winds, the fog potential will be limited
by the dry airmass in place. Considering fog was confined to the
river valleys last night and dewpoints will be about 5 degrees
lower tonight, the coverage of fog should be patchy and once
again confined to these sheltered valleys.

Sunday... A gorgeous weather day for outdoor summer activities
with sunny (but hazy from the smoke) skies, a light breeze
(6-12 mph) and high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Sunday night... High clouds from upstream convection look to
overspread portions of the area, especially Finger Lakes-
Southern Tier-NEPA. The high clouds shouldn`t have much of an
impact on temperatures. Accordingly, with high pressure
overhead, calm winds will allow the airmass to radiate
effectively and temperatures to bottom out in the lower to
middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will pull
warm, unstable air into NY and PA. Scattered showers or
thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon.
Temperatures will reach the upper-70s or lower-80s.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase Monday night and Tuesday as
the cyclone spins into Lower Ontario Province, though low CAPE and
shear levels point toward weak, disorganized convection. Highs
around 80 are forecast Tuesday afternoon.

The storm will slide northeastward on Tuesday night with isolated
showers tapering off from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM Update...
Models are in good agreement in the big picture, of shifting the
belt of westerlies more into Canada during the second half of
the week. We will still be in the periphery enough for the
trailing edges of passing waves to skim by our area. There is
somewhat higher confidence for one of those waves Wednesday, but
beyond then more uncertainty. The waves late in the week also
appear weak and further north. So after a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday, beyond then it cannot be ruled out yet
it should be dry most of the time.

With very little if any opportunity for cool air advection
behind the waves, and higher upper level heights, temperatures
will be near or even a touch above climatology through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast this TAF period with just scattered
cirrus. Fog is not expected at the TAF sites due to dry airmass
and good mixing this afternoon which lead to surface drying.

Northwest winds this evening around 5-7 knots becoming light
overnight. Northwest winds on Sunday at 7-10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night/Monday morning...VFR.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms
possible (highest chances Monday night into Tuesday). This could
result in occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 921 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Shower activity is decreasing early this evening as expected. West
to southwest winds were decreasing gradually. Clouds will be slow to
decrease northwest and north central tonight in the vicinity of the
upper low. The low was centered over southeastern Saskatchewan, and
is forecast to continue lifting northward into central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba by daybreak Sunday morning. Otherwise current
forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Increased area of mention of slight chances of showers for the early
evening hours, mainly south/east of Bismarck and northward to Minot
and the Turtle Mountains area. Latest radar loops indicating showers
have built up along an area of enhanced CAPE shown on SPC
mesoanalysis...extending from Sioux/Emmons county in south central
ND to the Minot/Turtle Mountain area of north central ND. This
energy has been realized in cumulus building and actually producing
virga and precipitation in these areas. Expect that towards sunset
the showers will wane as daytime heating decreases.

Otherwise current forecast on track regarding winds and
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low circulating
near Regina, Saskatchewan. Mid/upper level shortwaves pivoting
around the low continue to result in showers across northeastern
Montana. These showers will migrate into northwestern North
Dakota. Some concern for funnels as a few elongated regions of
stronger surface vorticity located within the northeastern
Montana, northwestern North Dakota and southeastern Saskatchewan
corridor, is forecast to eventually become overlapped with enough
Mixed Layer CAPE 1000 J/Kg (0-3km) this afternoon per RAP/GFS.
Although the RAP Non-Supercell Tornado Parameter (NST)is weak
here, (as of this writing 0.5 to 1 in northeastern Montana), will
still need to monitor for funnels given the other parameters and
any increase in the NST values greater than 1 throughout the
afternoon. Also, the forecast NST from the RAP is slightly
stronger in the James River Valley, but mixed layer CAPE is weak,
less than 500 J/Kg and the tightest surface vorticity as of now
per SPC mesoanalysis resides east of the James River Valley. Will
monitor this area as well. Otherwise, gusty southwesterly winds
to 35kt will continue across the west into early evening, then
wane towards sunset. Showers will diminish overnight as the upper
low slowly shifts farther north into Canada. Sunday will be a
mostly dry day, with the exception for a shower/thunderstorm north
and west, where weak cyclonic flow will continue and coincide
with weak instability during max heating/afternoon hours. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, and highs Sunday will
be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Quasi-zonal flow Sunday night through Tuesday will give way to
a rising height field  through the column as an amplifying
mid/upper ridge develops over North Dakota Wednesday through
Friday. A trend toward an active precipitation pattern remains on
track during this time. It would appear at this time that nocturnal
or night-time convection will be the favored period for the most
intense convection.

For Sunday night and into Monday morning, other than a slight
chance for a shower/thunderstorm in the far west, the next chance
for showers and thunderstorms across western and central ND will
be Monday afternoon/evening. This will be in response to a
transient mid level shortwave shifting from northern Montana
across northern North Dakota. Strongest forcing resides across the
north into southern Canada. However, a weak surface cold front is
reflected with this shortwave and will slide from west to east
Monday evening/night. This will aid in low level lift for
showers/thunderstorms across central ND. Tuesday will be a
transition day as heights begin to rise while at the same time an
active southwesterly flow will also begin to brew across the
intermountain west, ahead of an upper low positioned off the
Pacific northwest coast. Expect a generally dry and pleasant
Tuesday with highs 75F-80F. Heights continue to rise Wednesday
with BUFKIT GFS soundings showing a solid Elevated Mixed Layer in
place across all of western/central ND. The capping layer associated
with it may become disrupted Wednesday night as a decent shortwave/ridge
topper is forecast to move through southwestern and south central ND.
Per GFS/ECMWF, enough lift and cooling aloft will likely occur as
heights are briefly suppressed Wednesday night leading to elevated
convection, possibly evolving into a MCS/mesoscale convective
system. The height field quickly rebounds Thursday and Friday and
increase even further as the ridge axis becomes sharper and pushes
well into south central Canada. Additional shortwaves in the
southwest flow aloft will be shunted into the far western and
northerly periphery of the ridge axis, which would favor northwest
and north central North Dakota for mainly night-time showers and
thunderstorms. Will continue to address the potential of severe
weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as moisture, temperature,
and instability all increase Wednesday into the early part of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Although vfr cigs/vsbys expected most terminals, there will be
intermittent -shra at KISN-KMOT with cigs around 3500ft agl through
03z. A line of showers developed east of KBIS, but are not
expected to maintain as they approach KJMS, so no mention of VCSH
at KJMS for early evening. Gusty southwest winds to 25kt or 30kt
will continue for KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS until around 01z-02z this
evening, then wane through sunset. On Sunday, winds are forecast
to be westerly at 10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon with VFR
ceilings.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Current water vapor imagery from GOES East along with 12Z upper
air analysis showing closed low just north of the MT/ND border
moving ever so slowly to the north. The western half of the CONUS
under the influence of a large amplitude trough that extends from
the low into the desert southwest. Subtle shortwaves rotating into
the Plains and currently resulting in isolated showers/tstms for
much of the day. Marginal instability has kept these below severe
limits. At the surface low pressure continues to be vertically
stacked to the north with a cold front extending SSE through the
eastern Dakotas and then SW to a low on the central KS/OK border.
Dewpoints in the area range from the mid 40s in the Neb panhandle
to the mid 70s in southeast KS.

Most of the CWA has been free from showers/tstms all morning and
early this afternoon in spite of several CAM models popping sct
activity for most of that time. Extensive low and mid cloud cover
for much of the CWA has kept instability at bay thus far but the
eastern areas are starting to heat up with breaks in clouds.

Question for late this afternoon and evening is whether or not
the convection along the front initiates in our CWA or just to
the east. Few runs of the HRRR have it along or just east starting
between 4 and 6 pm and then pushing off to the east during the
evening. All this seems reasonable given current frontal position
and latest parameters off the SPC meso page. The 18Z parameters
had 250-750 J/kg of mlCAPE for much of our CWA with higher values
in the SE. Bottom line is we could see a few severe storms in our
eastern KS counties.

As noted above, the upper trough is still west and we will
continue to be influenced by it through Sunday. Later tonight,
the CAMs bring another round of tstms in from the western KS. It
appears to keep the heavier precip to the south of our CWA
although affecting our KS counties. This in contrast to the 12Z
operational NAM that dumps plenty of QPF throughout the CWA. Will
keep pops fairly high overnight everywhere but highest south.

Sunday could be similar to today with areas of off and on
showers/tstms pushing across throughout the day and into the
evening. Most of the CWA should be in the cool sector so would not
expect severe, except possibly south.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Moving on to the upcoming work week.  By 12Z Monday, models in good
agreement that the 500 mb trough axis should be east of our CWA,
somewhere near I-29. It then appears we will be in more of a zonal
flow for the next 24-36 hours, and then transition into ridging over
the heartland as a closed low digs south along the Pacific NW coast,
building heights over the Rockies and Plains. Current temps at 850
mb are running 12-18C during the late afternoon across the CWA.
These should rise by 6 to 10 degrees by the middle of next week. A
quick look at 700 mb temps show it should be close to a capping
situation but perhaps not quite warm enough to preclude tstms
completely. For now will continue with the idea of hot temps and
slight chances for late day/overnight storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Significant Wx: MVFR CIGs lower to IFR.

Tonight: MVFR CIGs will decay to IFR. VSBY is highly uncertain.
There is potential that fog could dvlp...but confidence is not
high enough yet to include in the TAFs. Sct SHRAs. N-NNW winds
around 10 kt. Confidence: Medium

Sun: IFR CIGs lift to MVFR around midday. Uncertainty in how much
rain will fall and this will impact VSBYs. Sct SHRAs will be
around with the greatest coverage in the mrng. N-NNW winds around
10 kt. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Kelley




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 930 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Update issued to cancel the remaining counties that were in the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the area with the slow moving line...but best
instability well south of the CWA for any potential severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Overview: SW flow aloft over the Tri-State area will strengthen
and back to the SSW tonight as an upper level low presently
situated over northern UT tracks east into central CO by 12Z
Sunday. A SFC-H85 ridge extending southward from NE into eastern
CO and western KS is expected to persist through tonight. As of
18Z, northerly low-level flow and pervasive cloud cover east of
the CO/KS border have maintained a relatively cool/stable airmass
across the Tri-State area -- characterized by little or no mlcape
and mucape values ranging from 100 J/kg (west) to 500 J/kg
(east). Mid-level lapse rates ranged from 5.5 C/km in eastern CO
to 8.5 C/km along and east of Hwy 83 in western KS.

Today-Tonight: Strengthening SW-SSW flow aloft, transient DPVA
attendant small amplitude waves rounding the base of the upper low
invof the 4-Corners, and differential heating in the immediate
lee of the Rockies will aid in the development of scattered
convection along the CO Front Range between 19-22Z. Although low-
level moisture will remain more or less as-is across the Tri-State
area, mostly clear skies /unimpeded insolation/ and steeper mid-
level lapse rates advecting NNE from the Raton Mesa will result in
marginal destabilization (~500 J/kg mlcape) in eastern CO late
this afternoon -- enough to support/maintain convection
progressing east of the Rockies. HRRR and NAM NEST simulated
reflectivity forecasts suggest that convection will approach the
CO/KS border in the 00-03Z time frame, and that activity may grow
upscale into a forward propagating MCS that traverses western
Kansas in the 03-09Z time frame.

The severe weather potential this evening is not straight-forward,
to say the least. The thermodynamic environment will be on the
marginal end of the spectrum (for the High Plains), with mid-
level lapse rates on the order of 6.5-7.5 C/km, 500-1000 J/kg
mucape, and 700-1200 J/kg dcape. Although deep-layer shear will
certainly be sufficient for organized convection, weak low/mid-
level flow suggests that downward momentum transport will be less
than optimal. Given that an isolated, long-lived supercell
developed in a similar environment and persisted well past sunset
yesterday evening -- it stands to reason that a similar potential
may exist this evening. Alternately, if convection progressing
from southeast CO into southwest KS grows upscale into an MCS late
this evening (as the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest), a greater
potential for damaging winds may be present over portions of
southwest and south-central KS (largely outside of the GLD CWA).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Synopsis... Showers and thunderstorms are expected through most of
the day Sunday. There is a marginal risk of severe weather Sunday
afternoon and evening with the greatest threats being wind gusts up
to 60 mph and up to quarter size hail, but widespread severe weather
is not expected at this time. Drier conditions are expected for much
of the remaining long term forecast period with clearing skies
Monday and Tuesday. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be
possible late in the day on Wednesday, but beyond that more dry
conditions are expected through next weekend. While Sunday will be
relatively cool with highs in the mid 60s, much warmer temperatures
are expected next week with highs soaring into the low 90s by
Wednesday and staying there through next weekend. Similarly, lows
will increase from the 40s Sunday morning to the 50s and 60s
Wednesday morning.

Discussion... A significant longwave upper-level trough will
progress eastward across the Central High Plains on Sunday leading
to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area until Sunday evening. Upper-level ridging is expected
to move into the forecast area by Monday leading to decreased
precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday.

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave upper-level trough
develops on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains with southwest flow
aloft. However, these precipitation chances will be short lived as
increased upper-level ridging develops over the southern United
States leading to weak upper-level winds. With this upper-level
ridging, stagnant air, and clearing skies, much warmer surface
temperatures are expected for the Tri-State area later next week as
highs soar into the mid 90s for some. No heat records are expected
to broken, but it will be uncomfortably hot for most through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Low pressure moving off the central Rockies will trigger some
precipitation/convection this evening. Chances are better for
KGLD versus KMCK based on the low track. While KGLD has better
chances for any precipitation...low probability due to timing.

For KGLD...VFR skies thru 05z Sunday and after 15z...otherwise
MVFR with ceilings OVC020-025 and tempo VCTS from 01z-05z Sunday.
For winds...NE around 10-20kts thru 05z...then NNW around 10kts.
From 01z-05z some TSRA could have VRB25g40kts.

For KMCK...mainly VFR skies with some MVFR around OVC025 from
04z-08z Sunday. Some light shower activity possible as well that
could lower visibility to 5sm at times. For winds...NE around
10kts thru 11z Sunday...then NNW around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...JN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1036 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Mostly sunny skies prevailed across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase. Continued the trend
to slow down the arrival of rain until after midnight. The latest
HRRR model is even slower with rain not arriving until 09z across
central and north-central Wisconsin. Elevated instability will
arrive late tonight, with 850 mb LI`s approaching 0 C around
12z Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 50s
to lower 60s.

The severe threat appears to be limited on Sunday due to expected
cloud cover and ongoing rainfall. The best chance of stronger
storms would be across central Wisconsin where 850 LI`s drop to
-2 C Sunday afternoon. 0-6 km shear values only 20 to 25 knots,
thus the risk of severe weather is low. Did lower high temps on
Sunday a few degrees due to expected cloud cover and rain. Highs
will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Main concerns in the extended will be the chances for showers and
thunderstorms through much of the period along with steadily warming
temperatures across the area. This will also come with an increase in
humidity, making it feel more like summer across the area.

Sunday night through Monday night: A weak surface low is progged to
slide from the Upper Mississippi Valley northeastward through
Wisconsin Monday and into Ontario by Monday night. At the same time,
the ridge that has been in place over the past few days will slide
off to the east of the area as a 500mb negatively-tilted trough axis
slides through the area during the same time period. Increased
moisture and forcing associated with these features will lead to
increased chances of widespread rainfall across northeast Wisconsin.
The best chance of rain through this time period will be from Monday
afternoon into Tuesday evening as the trough axis and better upper-
level energy rotates through northeast WI. The trough axis will help
to steepen lapse rates, allowing instability values to jump up to or
around 500-1000 J/kg Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Shear
values are expected to be around 30 to 40kts across the area during
the afternoon and evening hours, so there is some potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms. This will largely remain conditional
as deeper moisture is expected to be across the area, which will
likely cut back on insolation, possibly limiting the instability
that can be realized. The main threat from any storms will be heavy
rainfall, hail and gusty winds. PWAT values are expected to jump up
to around 1.5 inches through Monday evening, which is about 150% of
normal for this time of year. Again, this would point to heavier
rainfall under any storms that form. Model guidance suggest up to an
inch of rain may fall across the area, with heavier totals possible
under any thunderstorms.

Rest of the extended: The flow is expected to flatten for the day
Tuesday into Tuesday night; however, there are some indications that
a subtle shortwave will slide across the area. This could lead to at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms for that time period.
Otherwise, several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible through much of the week as multiple shortwaves
approach from the west/northwest. The best chance of more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity will be along and ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave and pops will need to be increased ahead of
these as timing becomes better defined. Currently, the best chances
look to be late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening and again Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening, but this is rough timing at this
point. At the same time, overall heights are expected to steadily
rise across the area as a ridge builds in by next weekend. This will
lead to a steady increase in temperatures across the area, which
will definitely feel more summer-like for much of the work week and
especially into next weekend. High temperatures will warm into at
least the mid 80s by the middle and end of the work week. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Clouds and eventually precipitation will overspread the area
during the period. Will delay the onset of the precipitation a
little from earlier forecasts, as it is still pretty far away
based on the radar mosaic. The slower arrival also supports
pulling back a little on how quickly/far ceilings drop overnight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

 821 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 821 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

A couple of clusters of deep convection continue to track southeast
across north central into northeast AL. Trailing stratiform also
continues across southern TN into far northern AL. Successive HRRR
runs have shown a rapid decay of this MCS as the evening wears on,
but given the areal extent of rain in southern TN and north AL, will
carry higher PoP a bit later. Also not convinced of additional
redevelopment in our southeastern counties yet this evening. However,
with loss of daytime heating, the threat of severe weather appears to
have diminished considerably.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast to start a
new week, as a moisture atmosphere continues. Precip coverage from
the models does not look as widespread. However, another complex was
being picked up by the models, that will bring widespread convection
on Monday. Some of the storms during this period could become strong,
with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Between the
clouds and storms, slightly warmer than seasonable norms, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. Better rain chances will
bring more clouds, and slightly cooler conditions with highs in the
upper 80s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Surface high pressure anchored off of the southeast coast will help
to maintain a southerly flow, keeping a feed of moisture from the
Gulf for much of next week. This moist and unstable flow, along with
strong daytime heating will bring daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the period. Stayed with a diurnal trend
regarding rain chances (higher in the day, lesser to "nill" at
night). Daily high/low temperature for much of next week should
average at to maybe a tad above seasonable norms, with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90, and low temperatures near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Line of thunderstorms in southern TN will slowly migrate southeast
through the KMSL and KHSV areas through 04Z. +TSRA and gusty winds
are likely. Then, as the thunderstorms diminish or move south, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday morning. Additional
thunderstorms may be possible Sunday afternoon, but will keep out for
now due to low confidence.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...RSB
AVIATION...17


For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 858 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Have moved pcpn into forecast area faster than package as bow-like
cluster over northeast missouri may reach into areas west of the
IL River by midnight. The environment it is moving into is quite
different than the genesis area over northeast KS and northwest
MO. Moisture transport and instability drop off with eastern
extent so strength and speed will likely drop off as well as the
evening proceeds. However, it is already further along than any of
the CAMs so felt we needed to alter PoPs to reflect an increased
chance late this evening - particularly in the area west of the IL
river.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Extended the flash flood watch for Sugar Creek below the
Spaulding Dam in central Sangamon county through tonight.
Otherwise areal flash flood watches are posted just west of CWA
from late this evening into Sunday.

Radar mosaic this afternoon shows convection over sw KY into west
TN and tracking ESE away from southern IL. Mostly cloudy skies
prevailed over CWA at mid afternoon with muggy dewpoints in the
upper 60s to around 70F. Temps ranged from 75-80F with se winds
5-15 mph and few gusts to 20 mph. Surface map shows a warm front
over sw IL into central MO/KS to 1002 mb low pressure in central
NM. Aloft a 500 mb ridge was over the MS river valley including IL
with a stronger upper level trof in the Rockies (567 dm 500 mb low
in ne UT and 552 dm 500 mb low in southern Saskatchewan) and in
the Canadian Maritimes.

Latest CAMs continue to show fairly quiet wx over CWA through mid
evening, then increasing chances of convection from sw to ne
during late evening and overnight with low level jet influence and
nearby warm front. Have ramped up pops from sw to ne in response
later this evening and overnight with heaviest rains over the IL
river valley/west central IL. SPC day1 outlook update continues to
show slight risk of severe storms over central and sw CWA and
marginal risk ne CWA for tonight with 15% risk of damaging winds
and large hail in slight risk area. Muggy lows tonight around 70F
to lower 70s.

Somewhat of a lull in convection early to mid Sunday morning, then
expect more convection to develop late Sunday morning and
especially Sunday afternoon. This in response to short wave trof
lifting ne toward the mid MS river valley by early Sunday
afternoon. SPC day2 outlook has a marginal to slight risk of
severe storms Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening until
sunset, with greatest threat over sw half of CWA. WPC day2 has
slight risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday afternoon/evening
across area. Highs Sunday range from the lower 80s over the IL
river valley, to the upper 80s in southeast IL where heat indices
peak in the mid 90s Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Weakening upper level trof moves into the Midwest/western great
lakes by Monday afternoon, bringing good chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms to CWA. SPC day3 outlook has marginal risk of
severe storms east of IL over parts of IN on Mon afternoon. Cooler
highs Monday in the upper 70s nw of IL river and lower 80s east of
the IL river. Isolated showers possible Mon evening mainly early
in eastern/ne CWA then a welcome stretch of dry weather returning
to CWA overnight Mon night through Wed morning as weak high
pressure builds into the area. Highs Tue in the low to mid 80s.

The 12Z forecast models and their ensembles continue to show a
large subtropical upper level ridge building into the area from
Wed thru Saturday with 500 mb heights rising above 588 dm. This
will return tropical heat and humidity with highs in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees and muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. This strong upper level ridge should help provide a
cap, and only isolated thunderstorms possible Wed afternoon and
Fri north of I-70 and over the area overnight Fri night into
Saturday. Models still do not show any organize convection under
the upper ridge during mid to late week with deeper tropical
moisture south of CWA late this week and disturbances ridging
overtop of ridge passing north of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

MVFR clouds have become isolated across central Illinois this
evening and the rest of the evening should be Quiet. Convective
complex developing over northwest mo will advect eastward reaching
KPIA and KSPI after midnight. Not sure how widespread storms will
be at this point as the 18z 3km NAM and 22z HRRR both show complex
weakening significantly as it moves into IL. Unlike last night,
best moisture transport vectors are further west with little
moisture advection east of the Mississippi River. Will generally
follow with tempo MVFR cigs and vsbys during the early morning for
I-55 terminals and west and indicate the weakeniung trend by only
going VCTS at KCMI and KDEC.

Next chance of significant reductions will likely develop Sunday
afternoon as convection develops. Given differences in model
timing and coverage will just go with VCTS mid to late afternoon
throughout central Illinois. Later packages should be able to tune
the timing, coverage, and intensity.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 1038 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

Did a quick update to ingest the latest observations and then
blended them into the overnight hours. As seen on the satellite
Nighttime Microphysics imagery, valley fog has already begun to
develop in the far east. This was a bit earlier than originally
forecast, so the forecast was adjusted slightly to account for
this. A new ZFP was not needed. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 945 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

All shower activity has either moved to the south of Kentucky or
dissipated this evening. Not expecting any resurgence in activity
until tomorrow morning. The HRRR has also been consistent showing
dry weather for the overnight. Therefore, have removed thunder for
the overnight. Updated the HWO to account for this. Also adjusted
minimum temperatures down slightly based on satellite imagery
showing some clearing skies. Currently, temperatures are in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Expecting lows tomorrow morning to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s; however, areas in south-
central Kentucky could see lows in the upper 60s. Furthermore, fog
will be a concern for the overnight and thus have included patchy
fog as well as river valley fog for most of eastern Kentucky.
Expecting fog development around or after midnight tonight,
persisting into the early morning hours. A new ZFP was sent.
Updates have also been sent to the web and to NDFD.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

Updated PoPs based on latest radar trends showing most of the
shower activity occurring in southeastern Kentucky. Not expecting
any more showers in the north for the overnight. The HRRR agrees
with this thinking as well. With limited instability present,
minimal lightning has been observed over eastern Kentucky in the
past hour. Will keep thunder in the grids for now, but plan to
revisit this for the next update. Other than this, merely
ingested the latest observations and blended them into the evening
hours. In general, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A new
ZFP was sent. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that moved across the area
this morning has moved southeast into North Carolina. The next MCS
is over western KY. While this system will push southeast and miss
our area for the most part, convection is developing eastward from
the main MCS in an area of deep layer moisture flux convergence
that extends into the southern part of our forecast area. Some of
this shower and thunderstorm activity will affect the
southwestern part of the forecast area this afternoon. The HRRR is
not handling this convection approaching the southwest part of the
forecast area very well. The HRRR is showing some unorganized
convection developing in parts of the forecast area later this
afternoon and evening. It has been consistent in keeping the area
dry overnight. Short range guidance is pointing towards
development of yet another MCS upstream over the mid MS Valley
this evening and into the overnight. Any additional MCS
development to our west tonight should not affect eastern KY. With
all that being said will keep the forecast dry over the northern
part of the forecast area tonight, and carry chance probability in
the central and southern part of the area. The passage of the
past two MCS`s has helped to reinforce the surface boundary to our
southwest over central TN. This boundary will lift to the
northeast as a warm front on Sunday, and will continue the chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

There continues to be good model agreement with the evolution of the
mean upper air pattern during the coming week. We`ll transition from
the active wet pattern of the past couple of weeks, to a drier and
warmer pattern as upper level ridging builds over the center of the
country during the latter part of the forecast period.

At the start of the period mid/upper level ridging will extend from
the Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay with the axis of the ridge east of
our area. Troughing will be over the eastern plains, with a short
wave that will be moving from the plains on Monday to the Great
Lakes Monday night. At the surface a cold front will move eastward
from the MS valley on Monday, with a surface trough preceding the
front. The surface trough should serve as a focus for convection
Monday afternoon. With 850 mb winds increasing to around 40 knots
ahead of the surface trough and CAPES around 2000 J/kg could see
some organized convection Monday afternoon. SPC currently has
eastern KY in the marginal risk area for severe storms on Monday.
With precipitable water potentially near 2 inches Monday afternoon
some heavy rain will also be possible. However, storms should be
progressive with any heavy rain short lived. At this time WPC keeps
the marginal risk area for excessive rains off to our northeast on
Monday.  The cold front will pass through eastern KY Monday night.

After the frontal passage surface high pressure will build into the
area. The upper air pattern will transition from nearly zonal on
Tuesday to a building upper ridge in the center of the country by
the end of the week. With the building upper ridge and rising
heights, we`ll see a gradual warming trend for the last part of the
week. After the frontal passage Monday night, mainly dry weather
should prevail for the coming week. However, as heat and humidity
build into next weekend, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will become possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

A stationary front draped over central Kentucky and down into
eastern Tennessee led to showers in the Cumberland Basin region,
with a few isolated showers in east-central and far eastern
Kentucky as well, late this afternoon. Most of this activity has
dissipated so far this evening, with only a few showers currently
in the far southeast. Current Hi-Res model guidance suggests that
the overnight will then mainly be dry for eastern Kentucky. Thus,
the concern for the overnight will be lowering VIS and CIGs to IFR
or MVFR due to the development of patchy fog and river valley
fog. Have included mention of this in the TAFs, with SME and LOZ
being the most affected due to recent rains. However, the fog will
dissipate with the sunrise tomorrow morning. Chances of showers
will then return for late morning and into the afternoon as the
surface boundary lifts north over the state. Lastly, winds will
generally be light and variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...CGAL




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Weather and pops updated as scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms move northeast through north central Nebraska. Next
round of convection will move into far southwest Nebraska by 11
pm CT tonight then moves northeast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The primary forecast challenges through the weekend revolve around
precipitation chances and thunder potential. Temperatures will also
remain well below normal due to cloud cover and an upper trough
digging into the southern Plains.

This evening and tonight... Progress chc-lkly PoP eastward in
response to the approaching upper trough (and developing closed
low?) and a weak surface trough/moisture convergence axis bisecting
the forecast area. Relied heavily on NAMnest and blended in HRRR and
HREF as they have been most accurately portraying thundershowers so
far today. Despite mesoanalysis indicating very little MUCAPE (up to
500 j/kg) and essentially no SB/ML CAPE, cu fields have been
agitated and intermittent lightning has been observed. Lapse rates
are also nearly moist adiabatic. Not concerned about severe weather
due to the limited instability and relatively weak shear (20-35 kts
effective), but small hail is possible due to low freezing levels.
The current band of thunder slowly spreads east tonight, while the
next batch of moisture spreads into the panhandle and southwest
Nebraska overnight. Much of the forcing comes above H7 in the form
of increasing frontogenesis and broad isentropic upglide. Depending
if the weak surface feature exists tonight, precip coverage may be
greater. A general MAV/MET/ECS blend for min temps results in upper
40s panhandle to lower 50s north central.

Sunday and Sunday night... The H5-7 trough crosses the state during
the day, helping to provide forcing for continued thundershowers.
Forecast soundings suggest somewhat steep lapse rates, while a
surface low and trough remain parked over the Lower Missouri Valley.
Cloud cover, northerly low level flow, and H85 temps around 10C will
limit highs to the upper 60s for most. Gradually wane PoP after 00z
as the strongest forcing moves east, instability decreases, and
downsloping H85 winds bring in drier air. Sunday night is setting up
to be rather cool, especially with the sky clearing and surface
winds relaxing. Lows should dip into the mid/upper 40s west of Hwy
83 and lower 50s east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The workweek weather pattern for Nebraska can be characterized as a
return to summer. An upper ridge sets up over the Plains and builds
throughout the week with the 590dm isopleth reaching the Sandhills
on Thursday. In the low levels, H85 flow is primarily downsloping or
southerly and weak 25C+ thermal ridges cross the area. The mixed
layer also deepens to around H7. Guidance is consistent with highs
rebounding to the mid 80s Tuesday and around 90F Wednesday and
beyond. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wed and Thu
evenings as a surface front/trough cuts through the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Expect mainly cloudy skies across western and north central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will range from 8000 to
12000 FT AGL for both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Isolated
showers will be possible in the vicinity of the KLBF terminal
overnight tonight and then again on Sunday afternoon.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Keck
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Buttler



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

 942 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...

Another busy night on radar at MEG. Storms have finally
dissipated across the entire area with the loss of daytime heating.
The main focus is now on an MCS out to our west. The HRRR seems
to have a decent handle on it moving to the north and west of our
area overnight. If any storm outflow can outpace the mean storm
motion, a few showers and thunderstorms may move into the
extreme northeast Arkansas overnight. However, confidence remains
low.

Elsewhere, prepare for a quiet and partly cloudy night with lows
in the lower 70s. South winds will stay up around 8-12 mph
overnight, negating the issue of fog. Things will warm up quickly
again tomorrow morning, with triple digit heat indices possible by
the noon hour tomorrow. We`re hoping for a mostly quiet shift
tomorrow night, but the weather pattern says otherwise. Another
round of strong to severe storms may occur again tomorrow night as
a front and mesoscale influences combine with a humid and
unstable airmass. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

UPDATE...

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Storms are scattering across the region this afternoon.  High
cape/low shear environment with many of the storms pulsing.  The
limping along complex over MO/KY is slowly entering our area.  There
is concern that as this complex churns south into a favorable
environment that more widespread damaging winds could occur through
this evening.

Models are consistent with a change in the pattern beginning Sunday
night as a cold front approaches the area in association with a
fairly vigorous, for late June, shortwave moving through the Central
US. Thunderstorms are expected regionwide as this front moves
through the area beginning Sunday night through Monday. The best
forcing with this system is farther north, however with the
airmass in place there is plenty of instability, so expect strong
to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind as the main threat.

Thereafter, precipitation will be hit and miss and generally
diurnally driven as temperatures cool to a bit below average.
Although a surface ridge is evident through much of next week the
upper flow has relatively low heights which contribute to favorable
lapse rates rates for late day convection as the core of the upper
ridge remains over the intermountain west.

Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Ongoing convection near all sites should end by 01Z. The exception
may be MEM where an outflow boundary may spawn new thunderstorms
in the short term. Surface winds will shift back around to the
south and remain between 8-10 kts overnight. Winds are expected to
pick up from the southwest tomorrow and become gusty. There is
still uncertainty with respect to thunderstorm coverage during the
day tomorrow. The better chance for storms will be just after this
TAF set as a cold front approaches from the west.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 714 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The short term period will be dominated by clouds and occasional
chances for showers and storms tonight through Sunday night. This
afternoon we are stuck between sources of forcing in an MCV over IA
and a north/south oriented front over the eastern Dakotas that has
been stationary today. Tonight, we are finally starting to see
models come to some form of agreement on us getting more widespread
precipitation. The Dakotas front will drift into MN tonight, and as
it does so, we`ll see a weak sfc and h85 wave work north along it.
The 12z NAM/GFS/ECMWF along with the HRRR and HopWRF show a cluster
of storms developing over western IA this afternoon, that track
north toward western Lake Superior. There are still timing
differences and with the way we have struggled to get precip in here
the last couple of days, trended timing of likely and higher pops
closer to the slower HRRR, which has been trending slower through
the day by itself. From the severe perspective, it looks unlikely.
The strong instability (3000+ j/kg of CAPE will remain south of I-80
as widespread thunderstorms across IA/northern MO should limit how
much instability makes it up this way. Instead, it looks like the
activity coming tonight will be showers with embedded thunderstorms,
with some small hail possible with one or two rogue updrafts.

For Sunday and Sunday night, the precip forecast is rife with
uncertainty. The boundary that comes into western MN tonight, will
be stalled out over eastern MN/western WI Sunday/Sunday night.
Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s and this moist airmass with
the front in the region will likely result in scattered showers much
of Sunday and Sunday night. We may see a more concentrated area of
showers/storms move into southern MN late Sunday night as a strong
shortwave moves into Iowa. Given the uncertainty in timing/coverage
of precip Sunday/Sunday night, have pretty widespread and prolonged
30s-50s pops this period, with about the only area we have any
confidence in being dry is in western MN where some drier low level
air will filter in behind the front. Given the extensive cloud
cover, we`ll again see highs held up in the mid 70s, though with the
front overhead, we will see light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

All signs continue to point towards summer arriving midweek, as
riding builds into the upper midwest and ushers in much higher
temperatures and humidity through next weekend. Before this ridge
builds into the region, we`ll have some precipitation to deal with
on Monday as the trough responsible for active weather this weekend
lingers over the region. Expect the bulk of this activity to remain
constrained to eastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin as the
vort max to our south begins to pull northeast out of central
Iowa. The best instability/shear should remain off to our
southeast so the threat for strong/severe storms should remain
low. After this trough departs, Tuesday and Wednesday look to
remain mostly dry with any impulses in the weak flow aloft looking
to stay either north or south of the area.

Upper level ridging really begins to build into the region
Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures steadily rising through the
weekend when the ridge axis looks to peak over our area. Just how
warm we get will depend on cloud cover and any potential
precipitation, but 850 mb temperatures suggest the potential for
highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Wednesday/Thursday, and upper
80s to 90s this weekend. Humidity will be increasing as well, with
muggy dewpoints in the mid- upper 60s expected to advect into the
area. Some guidance is showing the potential for dewpoints well
into the 70s by the weekend, but believe these are likely overdone
given the lack of mature crops so far this summer to aid in
evapotranspiration. At least a few chances at precipitation look
possible during this period, likely as nocturnal thunderstorm
complexes riding along the periphery of the ridge, but guidance is
all over the place regarding the track and timing of these
complexes. Strong instability and high PW values will be in place
for any of these systems to work with, so will have to monitor the
severe/heavy rain potential later in the week and over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Main concerns are thunder potential later tonight and also low
ceilings late tonight into midday Sunday.

A variety of short term models continue to suggest a weak short
wave late tonight arriving from the southwest. Timing varies a
little bit, but in general, thunder looks possible after 05Z in
southwest and south central MN and 10Z north of the metro and
into Wisconsin. The best low level winds, moisture and instability
appear to avoid west central MN, so have kept thunder out of KAXN
for now. Maybe not even thunder near KRWF and KSTC, but that is
too close to call for now so have continued the mention of thunder
there.

As showers and the boundary creep eastward, ceilings should drop
as winds diminish to calm or nearly calm. There is some potential
for IFR ceilings late tonight into Sunday forenoon, but low level
moisture is not all that significant so have opted for low end
MVFR ceilings.

KMSP...most short term models continue to show SHRA and maybe TSRA
impacting MSP, with a start time ranging from 07Z to 10Z. Have
decided to indicate thunder from 08Z-11Z, but there is some chance
it could start a little earlier or linger to 12Z or so. MVFR
ceilings do appear likely, but the chance for IFR ceilings is
rather low since the weak boundary will still be well west of KMSP
through the morning. The only other matter is possible thunder
later Sunday afternoon and evening, but there are too many
unknowns for now to include thunder at that point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds W 10G20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds WNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...TDK




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 808 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a trof extending from
Saskatchewan thru the Rockies. Within the trof, a well-defined mid-
level low was over southern Saskatchewan, and a well-defined
shortwave was over ne UT. The latter wave will be an important
feature to affect the weather here on Mon. Other shortwaves are
noted in the sw flow across the Plains. Downstream, a a mid-level
ridge extends from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Hudson Bay. At
the sfc, the associated high pres ridge extends from Hudson Bay into
the Great Lakes. Dry air mass associated with the sfc thru mid-level
ridging has provided a pleasant, sunny, dry day across the fcst area
today. Temps have pushed well into the 70s in the interior. Lake
breezes are keeping conditions cooler along the Lakes. Dwpts are
comfortably low in the 40s.

After several days of constantly pushing back rain in the fcst due
to more persistent ridging over the area, it finally looks like shra
will enter the picture very late tonight and Sun as slight
progression of the pattern brings sw mid-level flow into the area,
accompanied by shortwaves. With the slight pattern progression,
drier e to se winds at 850mb will veer around to the ssw tonight,
leading to a notable increase in moisture/theta-e adv, especially
late tonight. With a shortwave moving ne from the Plains and
reaching Upper MI Sun morning, expect some shra to arrive over far
western Upper MI around sunrise and then spread ne thru the day Sun.
However, winds blo 850mb maintain more of a se component over the
eastern fcst area Sun which will likely help hold in drier low-level
air. Given the recent days steady pushing back of rain arrival in
the fcst, will hold off pops over the e until evening and only
include schc pops. With plenty of cloud cover spreading over the
area and a gradual increase in sfc dwpts, there is little or no
MLCAPE/SBCAPE across the area on Sun. There is some instability for
parcels lifted from aoa 3kft, but even that is limited (mostly under
100j/kg). If there is any thunder, better potential may be thru the
morning hrs over the w as models suggest maybe a few hundred j/kg of
MUCAPE with the initial push of shra thru western Upper MI.
Otherwise, thunder potential is minimal on Sun. Maintained a schc
mention, but wouldn`t be surprised if no thunder occurs, especially
after the morning hrs.

As for temps, with sfc high pres ridge shifting e, it will be a
warmer night, especially over the w where there will be a little
more wind with clouds/moisture also on the increase. Expect mins to
range from the low/mid 40s interior e to the mid/upper 50s far w.
Highs on Sun will range from the upper 60s/lwr 70s w under thicker
clouds/some shra to the mid or even upper 70s e where there will be
some sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

Upper Michigan will finally see more rain to start the work week
following a dry spell that has now lasted a little over a month,
especially prevalent over the west half. An upper trough and
associated surface low that`s been blocked well to our west will
begin to finally translate northeastward. Multiple rounds of
precipitation are expected Sunday night through Tuesday, including
the potential for some thunder mainly in the afternoon/evening
Monday and Tuesday. But there is plenty of model inconsistency in
the location of greatest forcing and subsequent precipitation still,
thus it is difficult to nail down any specifics at this time and
general chance to low end likely pops are maintained through this
period.

In terms of QPF, the possibility exists for widespread rainfall
nearing 1" and local totals up to 2" are not out of the question
either. It is equally possible that some locations only pick up a
few tenths. Per GEFS plumes, both the 00Z and 06Z deterministic GFS
was at the low end of the range of ensemble member QPF at KMQT and
KCWA. (It`s closer to the mean at KANJ and KDLH). Over the past
couple of days, moisture return in the north central US has been
pretty slow owing to multiple MCSs from NE to IL. Although
convection to our south may not be as vigorous Monday and Tuesday,
there could still be some effect on how much moisture will be
transported into the UP and so details will have to be ironed out in
the short term.

After the trough finally exits north and east towards midweek,
conditions will begin to dry out Tuesday night. A few lake-
breeze/subtle PVA induced showers/storms may be possible Wednesday
afternoon, then ridging amplifying over the central CONUS should
keep us mainly dry Wednesday night and Thursday morning before
shortwave activity begins to increase precip chances once again.
Flow will be pretty consistently out of the SW much of this week,
allowing a warmer airmass to dominate the region with inland highs
into the mid 80s by Thursday. By then, even locations near Lake
Superior should see highs near 70, a rarity over the past month.
Some breeziness can be expected in the afternoons this week, but
nothing too concerning is on the horizon. Slight chances for
showers and storms will return to the forecast Friday into next
weekend as additional shortwaves embedded within the ridge attempt
to propagate through Upper Michigan, but predictability is low
for this time period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

With a dry air mass lingering into tonight, VFR conditions will
continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Increasing moisture and an approaching
disturbance may bring shra to KIWD after sunrise on Sun and to KCMX
early Sun aftn. Cigs will likely fall to MVFR at KIWD after daybreak
and at KCMX and KSAW in the afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

For the most part, easterly winds will mostly be in the 10-20kt
range into Mon. Winds will have more of a ne component over the
western part of the lake and more of a se component over the eastern
part of the lake. With low pres lifting ne toward the Upper Lakes on
Mon, there could be some locally stronger winds Sun night/Mon at
high obs platforms. Also, in the wake of the low on Tue, there may
be stronger westerly winds, perhaps into the 20-30kt range for a
time, depending on the strength of the low pres. Winds will remain
rather brisk on Wed before high pres ridge brings light winds for
Thu.

Finally, with a warmer/more humid air mass spreading into the Upper
Lakes Sun and Mon, fog may develop on Lake Superior once showers
occur over the lake. If any fog does develop, it will clear out for
Tue.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...KCW
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 944 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Just finished a mid-evening forecast update/adjustment for the
upcoming convective activity late tonight and during the day on
Sunday. Gridded, tabular, and text forecasts have been updated and
issued to reflect this change.

Although surface-based insolation and theta-e advection has been a
contributor to translating moisture into the serial linear MCS`s
the last 36 plus hours, the moisture advection depicted by the
GOES Differential Water Vapor the past few days has been a good
indicator for the replenishment/recharging of the atmosphere for
the initiation and maintenance of these MCS`s as they interact
with the stronger wind fields/shear zones in the northwest flow
aloft.

For tonight into Sunday there will be interesting situations that
will impact the shower and thunderstorm forecast for tonight and
Sunday.

The first has somewhat lesser forecast confidence, but could be a
marginal player for overnight convection prior to 11z (6am CDT).
The disorganized MCS over southwest MO and northern AR is being
fueled by a smaller and less robust plume of moisture stretching
from MS, southwest TN and into northeast AR along a shear zone in
a shortwave ridge axis. Storms may struggle to persist and
translate into western sections of southeast Missouri during the
evening and early overnight hours. However, as eastern edge of the
differential water vapor plume interacts with the sharper
northwest flow over the eastern part of the WFO PAH forecast area
after midnight, we may see elevated convection blossom in a NNW to
SSE fashion, slowly moving east through 8 am CDT. This convection
may be the primary focus through the overnight hours.

The second has higher forecast confidence and falls in line with
radar and satellite trends this afternoon and this evening. The
differential water vapor shows a very sharp ridge orientation of
drier air running south to north from the western Gulf of Mexico,
just west of the KS/MO and OK/AR borders. The eastward translation
of the upper level ridge axis would move the plume of moisture to
the southeast Missouri border by 11z. This is most in line with
the HRRR model depiction of the aforementioned MCS in KS/northern
MO and its translation into the WFO PAH forecast area.

There may be some variation of timing on the speed and scope of
this feature moving through the WFO PAH forecast area, but
anticipate that this MCS could be through the whole area (from
west to east) by 22z Sunday (5 pm CDT). Peak insolation may
accelerate the forward speed by 1-2 hours, if enough surface-based
instability can be in place to add additional buoyancy to the
approaching thunderstorm complex.

Given the very rapid changes in the upper air moisture flow, it is
difficult for the longer range guidance to react quickly to the
the "fire hose" deep layer moisture advection (usually at speeds
of 30 knots or more) moving in behind each MCS this weekend. In
the meantime, we could see at least 8-10 hours of convective
activity in one part or another of our CWA during the daytime
hours on Sunday. Given the saturated grounds, localized flooding
potential will be elevated to say the least.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

One the third MCC in less than 24 hour moves away late this
afternoon, many locations should be in store for a quiet night
for the most part as a H50 ridge of high pressure drifts east into
the area. Exception could be just east of the ridge over the sw
IN and Pennyrile KY regions where some of the CAMS and the 12Z
Euro suggest more activity could get going. For now will play it
with chance pops do to the amount of uncertainty involved. It
should be noted however that it would not take much to cause
flooding issues as much of the four state region is now completely
soaked.

Unfortunately for many, yet another round of thunderstorms, some
possibly strong to severe, will be possible again on Sunday, most
likely afternoon hours into the night time hours as the mid level
ridge drifts to the east of the region. Short wave energy is
expected to lift northeast within the developing swly flow regime
to support organized convection coming east from the southern
Plains during the morning hours. In fact, there is some potential
for multiple rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday night. A
Flash flood watch may need to be considered in the near future,
but uncertainty in both timing and areal coverage precludes one
with this package.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Lingering mid level shortwave energy will be in the process of
departing the PAH forecast area to the east on Mon. Thus, shower and
tstm activity will be on the wane west-to-east throughout the day,
and may be completely gone by midnight.

Into midweek, general high pressure at the surface will combine with
quasi-zonal mid level flow, and rising heights, to provide a dry
period and a warming trend under partly cloudy skies. There may be
more clouds and/or a sprinkle or two near the the AR/TN state lines
on Tue, due to possible disturbances aloft and deeper moisture.

Toward the end of the week, the upper flow is progged by the models
to become weak and diffuse as heights aloft continue to build. The
medium range current model consensus suggested that no significant
pcpn should occur until perhaps the weekend as lower trop
instability may overcome warmer air aloft. Outside of any convective
activity, expect warm and humid conditions under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

With the 00z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance, VFR conditions will
dominate all TAF sites for at least the first eight to ten hours
following in the wake of successive linear MCS`s this morning and
afternoon.

Some initial elevation convection over the KEVV and KOWB TAF sites
between 06z-12z will yield some lowering of VFR visibilities. This
may extend into KMVN as well, but forecast confidence is lower at
this time.

There is some concern that the boundary over southern MO/northern
AR may stall and move back northeast before 12z for the KPAH,
KCGI. Added a mention of vicinity thunderstorms with MVFR cloud
bases and VFR ceilings during the morning hours.

The variation in timing of these MCS`s (Mesoscale Convective
Systems) through the WFO PAH TAF sites may necessitate adjustments
for the 06z Sunday TAF issuance...stay tuned.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

 205 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures remain a few degrees below normal this
weekend, gradually turning hotter next week as high pressure builds
over the region. Expect dry weather until Friday and Saturday next
week as moisture increases along the border with New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery currently shows high-level clouds
streaming west to east generally over the International Border.
Smoke from the Woodbury Fire is also starting to become a bit more
active early this afternoon. The HRRR smoke model indicates the
plume will shift into northern Graham/Greenlee Counties this evening
as winds turn more westerly. Expect skies north of Safford to become
a bit hazy with patchy smoke.

Otherwise, an upper trough continues to slide across the
Intermountain West this weekend, suppressing thicknesses and
associated high temperatures. This makes for several days in a row
of temps below triple digits in Tucson, an atypical occurrence for
late June. Afternoon breezes also increase under influence of this
pattern, particularly today.

By Monday the trough exits the area, leaving Arizona under gradually
increasing H5 heights. Temperatures follow suit, warming a couple
degrees each day. By the middle of the week, a deepening trough will
extend over the Pacific Northwest, held off by the strengthening
subtropical-high that pushes up to our southeast. It`s that time of
year where the the monsoon ridge is trying to establish position and
hints of moisture may sneak into the far eastern edge of our
forecast area by next weekend. A few high based thunderstorms could
develop, with the White Mountains being the favored location. The
National Hurricane Center also shows a 60% chance of a Pacific
tropical cyclone developing in the next 5 days, but the strong high
should block any moisture from reaching our region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru 23/06Z, then generally clear
skies thru the remainder of the forecast cycle. SFC wind SWLY/WLY at
12-18 kts with gusts to around 25 kts thru 23/02Z, then diminishing
SFC wind. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru the remainder of
the period and favoring a WLY/NWLY direction Sunday afternoon. The
exception will be in the Gila River Valley near KSAD, with a NWLY
SFC wind at 12-18 kts Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast
Arizona this upcoming week. The exception will be along the New
Mexico border and in the White Mountains Friday and Saturday, where
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists. Expect gusty
southwest to west winds through early this evening and then some
elevated northwest winds in the Gila River Valley on Sunday. Lighter
winds will then be on tap Monday into Wednesday, although occasional
afternoon and early evening breezes can be expected due to strong
solar heating. Increasing wind speeds are expected the latter half
of the upcoming week into next weekend, generally from a southwest
to west direction. Haines 6 conditions are forecast east of Benson
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Discussion...Howlett
Aviation/Fire Wx...Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

 522 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Persistent upper low is drifting just north of the MT/ND/Canadian
border, with a secondary low crossing the Great Salt Lake region. A
series of weak waves are crossing the CWA. Surface obs and KUDX
radar show a surface boundary from KD07 to KRAP toward the southern
Hills. KUDX also shows showers developing over the last couple hours
from Union Center to Newell to the northern Hills. The latest HRRR
shows showers continuing to develop near the surface boundary
extending into portions of northeast WY. A few may become
thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. Showers will
dissipate this evening followed by dry weather through Sunday
morning. The Utah surface low will cross the central Plains
tomorrow. The best chances for precipitation will be south of the
CWA, but chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon through the Black Hills region through southwest
SD...perhaps into south central SD as well. Weak cape and weak shear
will hinder any severe weather development. Active zonal flow will
set up aloft for Monday and Tuesday, with chances for afternoon and
evening showers continuing. A gradual warming in temps is expected
with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Strong ridging is then expected
for the second half of next week. Deep thermal ridge will cross the
region, with temps expected to reach into the 90s through the end of
the week. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day, but
most areas will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 521 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, are
expected mainly this evening. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...JC