Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/17/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
622 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to track to the east and southeast this evening with the best chances from north central to east central areas. Another round of scattered to isolated showers and storms are expected on Monday, when numerous coverage will be possible across the northeast near the CO border. Both this evening and Monday there will be a mix of wet and dry microbursts with drier cells favoring locations west of the central mountain chain. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern plains, especially Monday. Areas of low clouds may produce MVFR and locally IFR conditions on the eastern plains tonight into early Monday morning. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and storms will plague northern and central New Mexico this evening, with some of the activity in the west capable of gusty and erratic winds. Precipitation chances are expected to be slightly higher across north central and northeast New Mexico for Monday, with a few strong to severe storms capable of strong winds, hail and heavy rain. The threat of severe weather may extend as far south as Quay to Roosevelt counties. Chances for precipitation start to diminish over the west on Tuesday with one more day of locally strong to severe storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storm chances will likely dwindle even further for Wednesday with the best chances from the Sangres into the northeast highlands. Temperatures start to climb above average statewide on Thursday, with several areas experiencing the warmest day of the year. && .DISCUSSION... Upper low has shifted east of New Mexico; however, enough moisture and instability has allowed a few storms to erupt across the higher terrain with 850-300mb steering flow taking activity on an eastward trajectory. HRRR continues to show inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values of 750-1000 J/kg in the west, maintaining a threat for gusty and erratic outflow winds. Severe winds are not expected given the degree of instability. West-northwest flow aloft will shift to more of a west-southwest component on Monday as a baggy trough/weak closed low evolves over the far southwest U.S. This should allow return flow to develop in eastern New Mexico as diffluent flow is noted in the upr atmosphere. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms will be favored across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the northeast-east central plains. Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should support the threat for robust updrafts. Activity will likely be messy as 0-6km bulk shear values of 15-25kts will likely favor multi-cellular activity. Storm motions will be slow initially then gradually increase by late afternoon/evening. With PWAT values approaching one inch near the OK/TX state border, activity will be capable of heavy rainfall. NAM-3km depicts storms congealing into a line of convection from Union to Roosevelt counties, and this seems reasonable. Drier zonal flow is forecast on Tuesday; however, an upper level shortwave will clip northern-northeast NM. A strong storm may form across Union County where the best instability sets up. Risk should be lower compared to Monday. Further drying and warmer readings can be expected for Wednesday. Maintained scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms along/near eastern slopes of Sangres; however, it may be a bit aggressive with both NAM/GFS nearly void of QPF. Even warmer conditions are expected for Thursday with upper 90s and 100s common across the east central and southeast plains. KABQ could hit 95F, 102F at KTCC and 105F at KROW... all hitting the warmest temp for the season. Stronger west-southwest winds appear more likely on Fri as models suggests a more amplified trough swinging through the Great Basin. Given a transition out of a wetter pattern, finer fuels will start to dry out, introducing a more bonafide risk for critical fire wx conditions in the eastern plains. Certainly something to monitor a bit more closely in the coming days. DPorter && .FIRE WEATHER... A mixture of wet and dry tstms will continue over western and central NM this afternoon and Mon, with more wetting storms developing over the northern high terrain then moving into mainly east-central and northeastern NM. Southerly flow and increased wind shear will allow for some storms to become severe over eastern NM Mon afternoon and evening. A drying and warming trend begins Tue with a disturbance keeping storms going across the north one more day Tue. Winds turn westerly Wed with poor to fair recoveries expanding from west to east each night for the latter half of the week. Winds turn sw Fri and into the weekend as a large feature trough moves into the NW CONUS, widespread Haines 6 starting Thu. Winds have trended up Wed-Fri, increasing the chances for critical fire weather developing, notably on Fri across eastern NM. 24/RJH && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
955 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled front remains over the area this evening. Several weak low pressure systems will move through the region along the front before it is pushed south of the area on Tuesday. High pressure will attempt to build in from the north on Tuesday into Wednesday. However, another low pressure system enters the region on Wednesday night for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... No major changes with this update. Showers are weakening as expected and possibility for redevelopment is expected later tonight as depicted by the latest HRRR model run. Some consistency in this trend has been noted. Previous Discussion... A stalled front over the region will be the source for future shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Have kept the Flash Flood Watch for the US 30 corridor and the Akron and Youngstown areas as Flash Flood Guidance remains low and any heavier shower or thunderstorm development will quickly allow for flooding. Not entirely out of the woods for severe weather this evening as some clearing has allowed for some instability to enter the region. The best areas appears to be south and east in the forecast area. As the front lingers over the area on Monday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over the region with the best chance for wet weather on the warm side of the front. Will keep likely PoPs south and east with lesser chances north, especially north of the front. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Nearly zonal flow will persist across the area except shortwave pulls out to the east for a brief break in the precipitation developing by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The next in a series of shortwaves will move northeast toward the area and bring yet another round of precipitation into the western portions of the area by Wednesday afternoon. This next round of precipitation will likely cause more flooding issues as the ground remains saturated from the current rainfall. With front oscillating back and forth across the area, no strong shifts in air mass will take place and looking at highs in the lower 70s each day and lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A potent positive vorticity maximum is progged to move east along with a fast moving trough of low pressure aloft Tuesday. The combination of the two features will cause surface low pressure to move east across the area as well. Copious amounts of moisture will reside over the area and another round of locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday and then exiting to the east Thursday night. Unfortunately, the front will continue to linger around the local area through the end of the week with supporting mean relative humidity. Therefore, will need a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day through the period. The overall upper level pattern begins to shift by the weekend as an upper level low pressure system and trough dive into the western United States causing amplification of an upper level ridge over the Mississippi River valley region. This will cause low pressure to develop east of the Rocky Mountains forcing the front to lift north as a fairly descent warm front Saturday. This will bring a return to some warmer air over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... A cold front slipped south across the area producing some strong to severe thunderstorms across the east central portions of the area. These storms moved east of the area. The front continues to spawn thunderstorms across the southern tier counties. Low stratus to VFR ceilings will be the rule through the night with the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms to move back north into the area tomorrow afternoon as front lifts north again. Not sure exactly on the extent and timing of the showers at this time. Some fog will occur near the lake but expecting that to be MVFR category. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible through Tuesday. Non-VFR returns on Thursday. && .MARINE... Generally light north to northeast flow will persist across the lake through this period as a stationary front lingers south of the lake. Not expecting any headlines through this period with the relatively light flow. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ017-020>023- 027>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Lombardy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
726 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/ Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Confidence: Medium Main concern will be the redevelopment of any stratus tonight as well as onset time of showers late Monday. Weak surface trough and reflection at H850 continues to be situated over Iowa with an area of surface convergence in northwest Iowa back into South Dakota. Earlier a few light showers/light drizzle had occurred over Minnesota. GOES 16 VISSAT shows some additional cumuliform clouds over northwest Iowa. Models have been attempting to produce light sprinkles northwest yet by late afternoon, but confidence remains low due to lack of forcing and surface convergence. Most of the west and southwest and portions of central have seen the stratus deck lift into this afternoon, as had been progged by the high res models yesterday. Despite this, a more significant patch of low level stratus is hanging on over the northeast and east. There continues a trend for the area to expand again overnight into central Iowa with a repeat for a lower cloud deck by Monday morning. There is also some risk of patchy fog overnight with boundary layer moisture still on the upswing from Saturday night`s rainfall. On Monday a return of thetae advection over the Central Plains is likely to increase chances for some showers/iso thunder by the afternoon hours over the west/northwest. Despite being aided by a weak wave at H500, the showers are expected to weaken through the day and initially be confined to the western/northwest areas of the state. Lows tonight will fall back to the mid 50s northeast tot he lower 60s south with highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s regionwide. By Monday night another boundary to the west and northwest will help initiate some convection as warm air advection returns over Nebraska/South Dakota in response to a trough of low pressure over the Western Plains. .LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/ Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Confidence: Medium The Monday system will continue to slowly edge east Tuesday with persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during the period. A quick look at precipitable water Tuesday into Wednesday morning along with warm cloud depths suggest that the southern Iowa or northern Missouri may see some efficient rainfall processes in place once any convection gets going. Rainfall totals late Monday night through Tuesday night could easily reach 2 to 3 inch totals near the track of the H850 low with much lighter amounts elsewhere. Confidence remains low to modest on the expected track, however... with the GFS farther north into Iowa while the Euro takes the bulk of the forcing/H850 low just south of the forecast area through northern Missouri. This difference has been evident for several model runs and we will need to evaluate this the next couple of model forecasts to reach a better consensus. At this time, the NAM also hints at a more southerly track and would tend to favor the southern solutions given the weaker synoptic features in play earlier in the week compared to the system expected Friday into Friday night. Despite the model differences on the track of the early to midweek system, both the GFS/Euro bring a break in the action from Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a northern stream shortwave approaching the region again on Thursday; though timing differences are pointing toward a lower confidence forecast into Thursday night. There remains good agreement between the models with the upcoming transition to H500 southwest flow by late week and into next weekend. Both the GFS/Euro suggest a rather vigorous system tracking into the Central Plains by Friday with a resurgence of moisture, instability and also accompanied by increasing wind fields and shear. All of this points to an active weekend with chances for severe weather on the rise. By late Friday afternoon/evening, a warm front near the region will be the focus of an overnight MCS. Fueled by strong instability during the day and an H700 cap just south of the area, along and just north of the cap there should be a robust convective response Friday afternoon and night. Today`s 12z forecast models are continuing to indicate a warm front over Iowa Friday evening with minor differences on placement through 12z Saturday. Warm cloud depths are well above 12kft by Friday night into Saturday and even though wind fields would favor faster storm motion, any complex of storms that becomes rooted along the warm front is likely to bring a significant amount of rain to the region in a short period of time. Obviously, some questions remain about the location/exact timing but the pattern and forcing suggests an above average chance of a stronger mesoscale event during the 24 hour period leading into Saturday. Typically, these systems produce most modes of severe weather with wind and hail the most likely. By Saturday both the GFS/Euro shift the warm front into northeast Iowa with a death cap at H700 of +13 to 15C by midday to afternoon over most of our area. At this point in the weekend the most likely area of convection will extend northeast into Wisconsin/Illinois then southeast along the boundary later in the day. Back in our area, convection will still be possible Saturday if backbuilding storms can break the cap during the afternoon/evening hours. With the return of southwest flow by mid to late week, our highs will begin to creep into the lower to upper 80s on the weekend compared to our current 70s to lower 80s regime. Lows will also be on the upswing with overnight readings likely to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s by Saturday morning with a more tropical airmass in place. The system is expected to mainly be east of the area by Sunday with slightly cooler and drier conditions returning. The current forecast is somewhat shaded toward storms lingering into Sunday and it is anticipated that some adjustments may be made in the next few days for Sunday and the end of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/ Issued at 725 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 The main challenge for the 00Z terminals focus on the timing and extent of potential fog later on tonight. Satellite imagery shows low stratus eroding west-east across central IA leaving a few pockets of dissipating stratocu and high-clouds streaming overhead. SREF and HRRR output depict lower probabilities compared to last night, but it does signal to the potential. For now, have retained the inherited fog generally 08-13z Monday morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at airfields along with generally light wind conditions. KFOD may get into some shower activity after 21z Monday, though confidence is too low at this time to introduce to the TAF. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...Hahn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry west to southwest flow aloft will persist through this week to next weekend. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacramento Mountains Monday could produce a few thunderstorms. Otherwise expect very few clouds and above normal temperatures over the next week. Triple digit high temperatures are possible across desert areas Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Looks like typical early summer weather for the CWA over the next week as main storm track remains well north of the area. This means we remain in weak flow from the southern branch of the jet over our area, resulting in dry west to southwest flow. For the week ahead as a whole, this will give us very few clouds and above normal temperatures. In the short term, satellite imagery shows considerable CU development over the mountains and Sierra County. Some virga and a few light rain showers are likely with these over the next 3 to 5 hours. RAP and HRRR continue to show modest cells over this area into early evening hours, so kept low POPs in for the northern tier of zones. Low DCAPE values would suggest not much downburst potential, but dewpoint depressions suggest winds of 40-50 mph possible this evening, even under just light showers. For tomorrow, models continue to show just a bit higher dewpoints over the northern zones and especially the Sac Mtns. So left a low POP in for the Sacs Monday afternoon. High DCAPE values show some potential for near severe wind gusts if any storms can generate. Both NAM12/GFS show dryline just east of CWA Monday afternoon and drifting back in late Monday night for a few showers. Ignored this for now but will have to continue to watch that situation. Otherwise, the remainder of the week should be dry with very few clouds. Slightly above normal temperatures through Wednesday will warm further Thursday into the weekend, with triple digit highs likely for many of the lowland sites. && .AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 with some isolated -TSRA BKN060-080 over area mountains and possibly near KTCS through 02Z. Afterwards, skies becoming SKC-SCT250. Winds generally west to southwest 5-15KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally a west to southwest flow over the region will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal with low relative humidities in the 5 to 15 percent range, slightly higher in the highest elevations. Almost every day for the upcoming week will have breezy conditions, but looks like critical speeds will not be met, at least not for 3 hours any day. Besides some isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, little to no precipitation is expected. Vent rates with the breezy west to southwest winds will remain very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 73 45 71 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 96 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 60 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 62 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 71 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 100 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 66 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 71 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 66 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 70 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 86 52 83 / 20 10 0 0 Mescalero 46 85 50 82 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 45 83 49 81 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 48 91 47 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 61 93 59 95 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 95 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 91 51 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 58 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 93 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 91 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Hefner/Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Convective precipitation is slowly winding down over east central/southeast MS this evening. Have adjusted rain chances and overnight weather elements to reflect latest trends and expect mostly quiet conditions overnight per recent HRRR guidance. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Through Monday: Tonight we will again see a substantial decrease in convection with waning instability. There will be a mix of mid/high blow-off clouds and developing low clouds closer to daybreak. The shortwave mid/ upper trough that has been instigating convection to our west over the past few days will move toward the Mid South tomorrow, providing better chances for rain across much of the area. Though there will be some synoptic support for development, it is most likely that coverage will still be mostly diurnally driven, with the highest rain chances during the afternoon hours. /DL/ Tuesday through Sunday; Overall, no major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Main adjustments were to tweak timing and confidence of precip chances throughout the week with the latest trends in guidance. A couple of shortwave troughs being carried along in the westerly flow aloft will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms across our forecast area throughout the week. Primarily driven by daytime heating, abundant instability will allow for some robust storms to develop at times. Deep layer wind shear will be mostly on the weaker side throughout the week, but a shortwave moving over the region Wednesday night into Thursday may help to instigate a more organized system and steer some stronger (possibly severe) thunderstorms into our forecast area. For now however, confidence in the finer details is too low to include any mention of severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. In the wake of this shortwave, increased mid-level ridging downstream of a deepening western CONUS trough will favor increasing potential for heat across our forecast area Friday into the weekend. Warm, humid air should continue to circulate into the region on the western periphery of the Bermuda High, while flow aloft becomes more southwesterly in the amplifying upper-air pattern. Heat index values falling out of the temperature and dewpoint forecast, suggest an increased chance for 100+ (possibly near 105 degree) heat index across parts of the area by Friday or Saturday afternoon. Given there may still be some afternoon convection around the region, will hold off on mentioning in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but a Limited threat for dangerous heat may be outlined in further outlooks if the forecast pattern plays out. /NF/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: The synoptic pattern with southerly low level flow around the periphery of an anticyclone is relatively unchanged and will there follow a forecast close to persistence regarding potential for early morning stratus formation. Otherwise, expect SHRA/TSRA activity to wane this evening and then peak again tomorrow afternoon as the remnants of another convective system approaching from the west interact with a hot and humid airmass. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 90 72 88 / 23 67 38 60 Meridian 71 92 72 89 / 71 51 34 61 Vicksburg 68 89 73 88 / 15 72 39 58 Hattiesburg 70 90 72 89 / 58 61 26 64 Natchez 68 88 71 87 / 14 71 29 62 Greenville 69 87 72 87 / 28 72 60 52 Greenwood 69 88 72 86 / 25 66 58 58 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .UPDATE... The surface high ridge has shifted slightly to the south, but the wind flow remains predominately out of the east which allowed for east coast storms to develop earlier in the day and progress westward. As these storms marched west, some showers and storms developed along the west coast sea breeze around 18Z. As the west coast sea breeze and multiple outflow boundaries collided with the east coast sea breeze, storm coverage increased with some moderate to strong storms forming along the coastal counties. Wind gusts were in the 20-30 knot range with rainfall amounts between 0.5 - 1.0 inch region wide with some higher amounts approaching 1.5 - 2.5 inches in heavier storms. Conditions are quieting down now with a tranquil night expected. Made some minor adjustments with POPs coverage based on latest radar and HRRR guidance. No other changes needed to the forecast. && .AVIATION... The weather has been a little quieter today than yesterday, but most of the terminals did see some TSRA move through the stations this afternoon with some MVFR/IFR conditions reported for VIS/CIG restrictions. Radar is quieting down now with only sporadic showers over the area, so will keep all stations weather free through the night with light winds 6 knots or less. Tomorrow will be very similiar to today with VCTS and TSRA starting between 15-18Z. No other aviation impacts expected. && .MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most of our coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Monday morning will likely feature even more widespread showers/storms over the waters. Otherwise, southeast winds will continue for the next couple of days, shifting onshore during the afternoon as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. High pressure will eventually sink south by Tuesday with prevailing southwest winds returning. No marine headlines expected through the period, although any thunderstorms will produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher waves. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 75 86 75 88 / 30 70 40 50 FMY 73 84 74 88 / 40 70 40 50 GIF 73 86 72 89 / 30 80 30 70 SRQ 73 85 75 88 / 40 70 40 50 BKV 72 87 71 87 / 30 70 40 50 SPG 76 86 76 86 / 30 70 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis