Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/17/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
622 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to
track to the east and southeast this evening with the best chances
from north central to east central areas. Another round of scattered
to isolated showers and storms are expected on Monday, when numerous
coverage will be possible across the northeast near the CO border.
Both this evening and Monday there will be a mix of wet and dry
microbursts with drier cells favoring locations west of the central
mountain chain. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern plains, especially Monday. Areas of low clouds may
produce MVFR and locally IFR conditions on the eastern plains
tonight into early Monday morning.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will plague northern and
central New Mexico this evening, with some of the activity in the
west capable of gusty and erratic winds. Precipitation chances are
expected to be slightly higher across north central and northeast
New Mexico for Monday, with a few strong to severe storms capable
of strong winds, hail and heavy rain. The threat of severe weather
may extend as far south as Quay to Roosevelt counties. Chances for
precipitation start to diminish over the west on Tuesday with one
more day of locally strong to severe storms along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storm chances will likely dwindle even
further for Wednesday with the best chances from the Sangres into
the northeast highlands. Temperatures start to climb above average
statewide on Thursday, with several areas experiencing the warmest
day of the year.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low has shifted east of New Mexico; however, enough moisture
and instability has allowed a few storms to erupt across the higher
terrain with 850-300mb steering flow taking activity on an eastward
trajectory. HRRR continues to show inverted-V soundings and DCAPE
values of 750-1000 J/kg in the west, maintaining a threat for gusty
and erratic outflow winds. Severe winds are not expected given the
degree of instability.
West-northwest flow aloft will shift to more of a west-southwest
component on Monday as a baggy trough/weak closed low evolves over
the far southwest U.S. This should allow return flow to develop in
eastern New Mexico as diffluent flow is noted in the upr atmosphere.
Scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms will be favored
across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the northeast-east central
plains. Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE should support the threat for robust updrafts. Activity will
likely be messy as 0-6km bulk shear values of 15-25kts will likely
favor multi-cellular activity. Storm motions will be slow initially
then gradually increase by late afternoon/evening. With PWAT values
approaching one inch near the OK/TX state border, activity will be
capable of heavy rainfall. NAM-3km depicts storms congealing into a
line of convection from Union to Roosevelt counties, and this seems
reasonable.
Drier zonal flow is forecast on Tuesday; however, an upper level
shortwave will clip northern-northeast NM. A strong storm may form
across Union County where the best instability sets up. Risk should
be lower compared to Monday. Further drying and warmer readings can
be expected for Wednesday. Maintained scattered coverage of showers
and thunderstorms along/near eastern slopes of Sangres; however, it
may be a bit aggressive with both NAM/GFS nearly void of QPF. Even
warmer conditions are expected for Thursday with upper 90s and 100s
common across the east central and southeast plains. KABQ could hit
95F, 102F at KTCC and 105F at KROW... all hitting the warmest temp
for the season.
Stronger west-southwest winds appear more likely on Fri as models
suggests a more amplified trough swinging through the Great Basin.
Given a transition out of a wetter pattern, finer fuels will start
to dry out, introducing a more bonafide risk for critical fire wx
conditions in the eastern plains. Certainly something to monitor a
bit more closely in the coming days. DPorter
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A mixture of wet and dry tstms will continue over western and
central NM this afternoon and Mon, with more wetting storms
developing over the northern high terrain then moving into mainly
east-central and northeastern NM. Southerly flow and increased wind
shear will allow for some storms to become severe over eastern NM
Mon afternoon and evening.
A drying and warming trend begins Tue with a disturbance keeping
storms going across the north one more day Tue. Winds turn westerly
Wed with poor to fair recoveries expanding from west to east each
night for the latter half of the week. Winds turn sw Fri and into
the weekend as a large feature trough moves into the NW CONUS,
widespread Haines 6 starting Thu. Winds have trended up Wed-Fri,
increasing the chances for critical fire weather developing,
notably on Fri across eastern NM. 24/RJH
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
955 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front remains over the area this evening. Several weak low
pressure systems will move through the region along the front before
it is pushed south of the area on Tuesday. High pressure will
attempt to build in from the north on Tuesday into Wednesday.
However, another low pressure system enters the region on Wednesday
night for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No major changes with this update. Showers are weakening as
expected and possibility for redevelopment is expected later
tonight as depicted by the latest HRRR model run. Some
consistency in this trend has been noted.
Previous Discussion...
A stalled front over the region will be the source for future
shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon and
evening. Have kept the Flash Flood Watch for the US 30 corridor
and the Akron and Youngstown areas as Flash Flood Guidance
remains low and any heavier shower or thunderstorm development
will quickly allow for flooding. Not entirely out of the woods
for severe weather this evening as some clearing has allowed
for some instability to enter the region. The best areas appears
to be south and east in the forecast area.
As the front lingers over the area on Monday, showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue over the region with the
best chance for wet weather on the warm side of the front. Will
keep likely PoPs south and east with lesser chances north,
especially north of the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow will persist across the area except shortwave
pulls out to the east for a brief break in the precipitation
developing by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The next in
a series of shortwaves will move northeast toward the area and
bring yet another round of precipitation into the western
portions of the area by Wednesday afternoon. This next round of
precipitation will likely cause more flooding issues as the
ground remains saturated from the current rainfall. With front
oscillating back and forth across the area, no strong shifts in
air mass will take place and looking at highs in the lower 70s
each day and lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A potent positive vorticity maximum is progged to move east
along with a fast moving trough of low pressure aloft Tuesday.
The combination of the two features will cause surface low
pressure to move east across the area as well. Copious amounts
of moisture will reside over the area and another round of
locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday and
then exiting to the east Thursday night. Unfortunately, the
front will continue to linger around the local area through the
end of the week with supporting mean relative humidity.
Therefore, will need a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
day through the period. The overall upper level pattern begins
to shift by the weekend as an upper level low pressure system
and trough dive into the western United States causing
amplification of an upper level ridge over the Mississippi River
valley region. This will cause low pressure to develop east of
the Rocky Mountains forcing the front to lift north as a fairly
descent warm front Saturday. This will bring a return to some
warmer air over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front slipped south across the area producing some strong
to severe thunderstorms across the east central portions of the
area. These storms moved east of the area. The front continues
to spawn thunderstorms across the southern tier counties. Low
stratus to VFR ceilings will be the rule through the night with
the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms to
move back north into the area tomorrow afternoon as front lifts
north again. Not sure exactly on the extent and timing of the
showers at this time. Some fog will occur near the lake but
expecting that to be MVFR category.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible through Tuesday. Non-VFR returns on
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light north to northeast flow will persist across the
lake through this period as a stationary front lingers south of
the lake. Not expecting any headlines through this period with
the relatively light flow.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ017-020>023-
027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
726 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
Confidence: Medium
Main concern will be the redevelopment of any stratus tonight as
well as onset time of showers late Monday. Weak surface trough and
reflection at H850 continues to be situated over Iowa with an area
of surface convergence in northwest Iowa back into South Dakota.
Earlier a few light showers/light drizzle had occurred over
Minnesota. GOES 16 VISSAT shows some additional cumuliform clouds
over northwest Iowa. Models have been attempting to produce light
sprinkles northwest yet by late afternoon, but confidence remains
low due to lack of forcing and surface convergence. Most of the west
and southwest and portions of central have seen the stratus deck
lift into this afternoon, as had been progged by the high res models
yesterday. Despite this, a more significant patch of low level
stratus is hanging on over the northeast and east. There continues a
trend for the area to expand again overnight into central Iowa with
a repeat for a lower cloud deck by Monday morning. There is also
some risk of patchy fog overnight with boundary layer moisture still
on the upswing from Saturday night`s rainfall. On Monday a return of
thetae advection over the Central Plains is likely to increase
chances for some showers/iso thunder by the afternoon hours over the
west/northwest. Despite being aided by a weak wave at H500, the
showers are expected to weaken through the day and initially be
confined to the western/northwest areas of the state. Lows tonight
will fall back to the mid 50s northeast tot he lower 60s south with
highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s regionwide. By Monday night
another boundary to the west and northwest will help initiate some
convection as warm air advection returns over Nebraska/South Dakota
in response to a trough of low pressure over the Western Plains.
.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
Confidence: Medium
The Monday system will continue to slowly edge east Tuesday with
persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during the
period. A quick look at precipitable water Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with warm cloud depths suggest that the southern Iowa
or northern Missouri may see some efficient rainfall processes in
place once any convection gets going. Rainfall totals late Monday
night through Tuesday night could easily reach 2 to 3 inch totals
near the track of the H850 low with much lighter amounts elsewhere.
Confidence remains low to modest on the expected track, however...
with the GFS farther north into Iowa while the Euro takes the
bulk of the forcing/H850 low just south of the forecast area
through northern Missouri. This difference has been evident for
several model runs and we will need to evaluate this the next
couple of model forecasts to reach a better consensus. At this
time, the NAM also hints at a more southerly track and would tend
to favor the southern solutions given the weaker synoptic features
in play earlier in the week compared to the system expected
Friday into Friday night.
Despite the model differences on the track of the early to midweek
system, both the GFS/Euro bring a break in the action from Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with a northern stream shortwave
approaching the region again on Thursday; though timing differences
are pointing toward a lower confidence forecast into Thursday night.
There remains good agreement between the models with the upcoming
transition to H500 southwest flow by late week and into next
weekend. Both the GFS/Euro suggest a rather vigorous system tracking
into the Central Plains by Friday with a resurgence of moisture,
instability and also accompanied by increasing wind fields and
shear. All of this points to an active weekend with chances for
severe weather on the rise. By late Friday afternoon/evening, a
warm front near the region will be the focus of an overnight MCS.
Fueled by strong instability during the day and an H700 cap just
south of the area, along and just north of the cap there should be a
robust convective response Friday afternoon and night. Today`s 12z
forecast models are continuing to indicate a warm front over Iowa
Friday evening with minor differences on placement through 12z
Saturday. Warm cloud depths are well above 12kft by Friday night
into Saturday and even though wind fields would favor faster storm
motion, any complex of storms that becomes rooted along the warm
front is likely to bring a significant amount of rain to the region
in a short period of time. Obviously, some questions remain about
the location/exact timing but the pattern and forcing suggests an
above average chance of a stronger mesoscale event during the 24
hour period leading into Saturday. Typically, these systems produce
most modes of severe weather with wind and hail the most likely. By
Saturday both the GFS/Euro shift the warm front into northeast Iowa
with a death cap at H700 of +13 to 15C by midday to afternoon over
most of our area. At this point in the weekend the most likely area
of convection will extend northeast into Wisconsin/Illinois then
southeast along the boundary later in the day. Back in our area,
convection will still be possible Saturday if backbuilding storms
can break the cap during the afternoon/evening hours. With the
return of southwest flow by mid to late week, our highs will begin
to creep into the lower to upper 80s on the weekend compared to our
current 70s to lower 80s regime. Lows will also be on the upswing
with overnight readings likely to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
by Saturday morning with a more tropical airmass in place. The
system is expected to mainly be east of the area by Sunday with
slightly cooler and drier conditions returning. The current forecast
is somewhat shaded toward storms lingering into Sunday and it is
anticipated that some adjustments may be made in the next few days
for Sunday and the end of the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
The main challenge for the 00Z terminals focus on the timing and
extent of potential fog later on tonight. Satellite imagery shows
low stratus eroding west-east across central IA leaving a few
pockets of dissipating stratocu and high-clouds streaming
overhead. SREF and HRRR output depict lower probabilities compared
to last night, but it does signal to the potential. For now, have
retained the inherited fog generally 08-13z Monday morning.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at airfields along
with generally light wind conditions. KFOD may get into some
shower activity after 21z Monday, though confidence is too low at
this time to introduce to the TAF.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Hahn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry west to southwest flow aloft will persist through this week to
next weekend. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacramento
Mountains Monday could produce a few thunderstorms. Otherwise
expect very few clouds and above normal temperatures over the next
week. Triple digit high temperatures are possible across desert
areas Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looks like typical early summer weather for the CWA over the next
week as main storm track remains well north of the area. This
means we remain in weak flow from the southern branch of the jet
over our area, resulting in dry west to southwest flow. For the
week ahead as a whole, this will give us very few clouds and above
normal temperatures.
In the short term, satellite imagery shows considerable CU
development over the mountains and Sierra County. Some virga and a
few light rain showers are likely with these over the next 3 to 5
hours. RAP and HRRR continue to show modest cells over this area
into early evening hours, so kept low POPs in for the northern
tier of zones. Low DCAPE values would suggest not much downburst
potential, but dewpoint depressions suggest winds of 40-50 mph
possible this evening, even under just light showers.
For tomorrow, models continue to show just a bit higher dewpoints
over the northern zones and especially the Sac Mtns. So left a
low POP in for the Sacs Monday afternoon. High DCAPE values show
some potential for near severe wind gusts if any storms can
generate. Both NAM12/GFS show dryline just east of CWA Monday
afternoon and drifting back in late Monday night for a few
showers. Ignored this for now but will have to continue to watch
that situation.
Otherwise, the remainder of the week should be dry with very few
clouds. Slightly above normal temperatures through Wednesday will
warm further Thursday into the weekend, with triple digit highs
likely for many of the lowland sites.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 with some isolated -TSRA BKN060-080 over area
mountains and possibly near KTCS through 02Z. Afterwards, skies
becoming SKC-SCT250. Winds generally west to southwest 5-15KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally a west to southwest flow over the region will keep
temperatures near to slightly above normal with low relative
humidities in the 5 to 15 percent range, slightly higher in the
highest elevations. Almost every day for the upcoming week will have
breezy conditions, but looks like critical speeds will not be met,
at least not for 3 hours any day. Besides some isolated showers and
thunderstorms into the early evening, little to no precipitation is
expected. Vent rates with the breezy west to southwest winds will
remain very good to excellent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 72 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 64 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 65 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 65 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 73 45 71 / 20 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 67 96 64 95 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 60 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 62 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 62 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 71 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 66 100 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 68 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 66 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 71 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 66 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 70 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 67 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 67 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 47 86 52 83 / 20 10 0 0
Mescalero 46 85 50 82 / 20 10 0 0
Timberon 45 83 49 81 / 10 10 0 0
Winston 48 91 47 89 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 61 93 59 95 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 62 95 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 49 91 51 91 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 58 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 45 93 46 91 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 91 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 60 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 61 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 60 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 62 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 59 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Hefner/Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Convective precipitation is slowly winding down over east
central/southeast MS this evening. Have adjusted rain chances and
overnight weather elements to reflect latest trends and expect
mostly quiet conditions overnight per recent HRRR guidance. /EC/
Prior discussion below:
Through Monday:
Tonight we will again see a substantial decrease in convection
with waning instability. There will be a mix of mid/high blow-off
clouds and developing low clouds closer to daybreak. The shortwave
mid/ upper trough that has been instigating convection to our
west over the past few days will move toward the Mid South
tomorrow, providing better chances for rain across much of the
area. Though there will be some synoptic support for development,
it is most likely that coverage will still be mostly diurnally
driven, with the highest rain chances during the afternoon hours.
/DL/
Tuesday through Sunday;
Overall, no major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Main
adjustments were to tweak timing and confidence of precip chances
throughout the week with the latest trends in guidance. A couple
of shortwave troughs being carried along in the westerly flow
aloft will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms across
our forecast area throughout the week. Primarily driven by daytime
heating, abundant instability will allow for some robust storms to
develop at times. Deep layer wind shear will be mostly on the
weaker side throughout the week, but a shortwave moving over the
region Wednesday night into Thursday may help to instigate a more
organized system and steer some stronger (possibly severe)
thunderstorms into our forecast area. For now however, confidence
in the finer details is too low to include any mention of severe
weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
In the wake of this shortwave, increased mid-level ridging
downstream of a deepening western CONUS trough will favor
increasing potential for heat across our forecast area Friday into
the weekend. Warm, humid air should continue to circulate into the
region on the western periphery of the Bermuda High, while flow
aloft becomes more southwesterly in the amplifying upper-air
pattern. Heat index values falling out of the temperature and
dewpoint forecast, suggest an increased chance for 100+ (possibly
near 105 degree) heat index across parts of the area by Friday or
Saturday afternoon. Given there may still be some afternoon
convection around the region, will hold off on mentioning in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but a Limited threat for
dangerous heat may be outlined in further outlooks if the forecast
pattern plays out. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
The synoptic pattern with southerly low level flow around the
periphery of an anticyclone is relatively unchanged and will there
follow a forecast close to persistence regarding potential for
early morning stratus formation. Otherwise, expect SHRA/TSRA
activity to wane this evening and then peak again tomorrow
afternoon as the remnants of another convective system approaching
from the west interact with a hot and humid airmass. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 69 90 72 88 / 23 67 38 60
Meridian 71 92 72 89 / 71 51 34 61
Vicksburg 68 89 73 88 / 15 72 39 58
Hattiesburg 70 90 72 89 / 58 61 26 64
Natchez 68 88 71 87 / 14 71 29 62
Greenville 69 87 72 87 / 28 72 60 52
Greenwood 69 88 72 86 / 25 66 58 58
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.UPDATE...
The surface high ridge has shifted slightly to the south, but the
wind flow remains predominately out of the east which allowed for
east coast storms to develop earlier in the day and progress
westward. As these storms marched west, some showers and storms
developed along the west coast sea breeze around 18Z. As the
west coast sea breeze and multiple outflow boundaries collided
with the east coast sea breeze, storm coverage increased with
some moderate to strong storms forming along the coastal counties.
Wind gusts were in the 20-30 knot range with rainfall amounts
between 0.5 - 1.0 inch region wide with some higher amounts approaching
1.5 - 2.5 inches in heavier storms. Conditions are quieting down
now with a tranquil night expected. Made some minor adjustments
with POPs coverage based on latest radar and HRRR guidance. No
other changes needed to the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
The weather has been a little quieter today than yesterday, but most
of the terminals did see some TSRA move through the stations this
afternoon with some MVFR/IFR conditions reported for VIS/CIG
restrictions. Radar is quieting down now with only sporadic showers
over the area, so will keep all stations weather free through the
night with light winds 6 knots or less. Tomorrow will be very
similiar to today with VCTS and TSRA starting between 15-18Z. No
other aviation impacts expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most of our
coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Monday morning will
likely feature even more widespread showers/storms over the waters.
Otherwise, southeast winds will continue for the next couple of
days, shifting onshore during the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops each afternoon. High pressure will eventually sink south by
Tuesday with prevailing southwest winds returning. No marine
headlines expected through the period, although any thunderstorms
will produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher waves.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 75 86 75 88 / 30 70 40 50
FMY 73 84 74 88 / 40 70 40 50
GIF 73 86 72 89 / 30 80 30 70
SRQ 73 85 75 88 / 40 70 40 50
BKV 72 87 71 87 / 30 70 40 50
SPG 76 86 76 86 / 30 70 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis