Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Main forecast concerns are on severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through this evening. Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly between 3 PM and 10 PM. The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a brief isolated tornado near the warm front. Latest Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) initiate the bulk of the thunderstorms through 4 PM, with the most concentrated area of storms west of Interstate 35. Additional cells then develop near the warm front over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. By this time, RAP forecast sounding show surface based CAPE values ranging from 1100 to 1500 J/kg. Shear is rather weak near the start of the event with 0-3 km bulk shear values of 10 to 15 kts, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts. The low level shear then increases as the shortwave moves into the region and we may see 0-3 km line normal bulk shear increase to around 30 kts. If this occurs we could see some bowing segments and cannot rule out a very brief QLCS tornado near the warm front. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then linger into the overnight hours as a shortwave continues to edge across the area. The bulk of this activity look to be north of Interstate 90 during the overnight hours. A few showers may linger over the area on Sunday before ending as a very weak ridge moves over region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Forecast highlights for next week are, more sumer-like temperatures, and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. Flow aloft turns zonal Monday night through Thursday with several features to watch bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. The timeframes with the highest confidence for showers and storms at this times are Tuesday night through Wednesday. Flow aloft then looks to turn more southwest going into next weekend with temperatures edging up and the potential for an active weather pattern, especially if the ECMWF solution holds. Will lean heavily toward a model consensus blend from midweek going into next weekend. Plan on high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through much of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 The area of rain has just about moved past KLSE and expect that it will do so by 16.06Z and do not plan to include in the new forecast. Ceilings for the most part have already come down to MVFR/IFR and with the light flow pattern through Sunday, there will be little improvement until afternoon when these will slowly begin to improve. Some VFR ceilings should then start to develop Sunday evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp LONG TERM...Wetenkamp AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1051 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail into next weekend. An inland surface trough will develop early week and will persist over the Southeast into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 1050 PM: Weak showers continue to drift across the Charleston County waters. I will extended SCHC PoPs through most of tonight. In addition, temperatures have been cooling slower that forecast. I will update the forecast to warm low temperatures a degree or two. As of 750 PM: A weak sea breeze was detected on KCLX west of the radar site. In the wake of the sea breeze, sfc dewpoints are forecast to rise to around 70 degrees. HRRR and NAM sfc condensation pressure deficits fall below 5 mbs across a good portion of the SC Lowcountry. I will hold off on adding ground fog to the forecast at this time, but it could be added in a later update. Otherwise, the current forecast appears on track. As of 545 PM: KCLX and visible satellite indicated no seabreeze has formed off the coastline late this afternoon. As a result, Cu across the forecast area remains sct and rather shallow. I will update the forecast to increase sky cover over the next two hours, then cloud cover will decrease after sunset. The update will also feature a headline for a Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM. Previous Discussion: The mid-levels will consist of semi-zonal flow overhead. At the surface, high pressure will move further offshore, allowing a weak trough to form overhead or nearby our area. This will cause clouds and dew points to gradually increase overnight. Though, dry weather will prevail. With all of this factored in, lows will be a few degrees below normal, but much warmer than they were last night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday through Tuesday: As high pressure consolidates offshore, our brief interlude of unusually dry/cool weather will transition to more typical heat and humidity, accompanied by greater chances for diurnal showers/thunderstorms. Sunday, after a cool start temperatures should recover into the upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations inland from the beaches. Onshore flow will push dewpoints into the lower 70s close to the coast/behind the sea breeze, but inland dewpoint should remain in the 60s. As the sea breeze pushes inland, guidance suggests that a few showers/thunderstorms will develop/dissipate, particularly across southeast Georgia. However, a persistent capping inversion around 700 mb suggests that coverage of convection should remain sparse, and potential for brief/pulse severe thunderstorms should remain low. Monday and Tuesday, dewpoints in the 70s will become more widespread, and PWAT values will increase into the 1.75 to 2 inch range. This environment will support greater coverage of convection, especially as the sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon/evening hours. For now, maximum inland PoPs are capped at 45 to 50 percent, but locally greater PoPs could eventually be required. Also, the potential for isolated/brief pulse severe thunderstorms with damaging wet microbursts will be greater as compared with the Thursday through Sunday time frame. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mid level short wave over the mountains Tuesday night is forecast to dampen and shift off the GA/SC coast late Wednesday. Faster flow aloft and a series of mid level short waves will shift over the southeast states Thursday and Friday. The end of the week should feature higher chances for showers and tstms. Dependent on the timing of a significant upper disturbance Thursday/Friday, we could see a potential for organized convection and perhaps a risk for severe weather at some point. We will need a bit more model consolidation before we begin to highlight a possible window with any certainty. The region may see a bit more upper ridging to start off next weekend. Temps each day will be above climo for the most part. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z TAFS: A weak sea breeze was detected on KCLX west of the terminals. In the wake of the sea breeze, sfc dewpoints are forecast to rise to around 70 degrees. HRRR and NAM sfc condensation pressure deficits fall below 5 mbs in and around KCHS and KSAV. I would expect that ground fog will be possible during the pre-dawn hours, highlighted with a TEMPO from 9Z-12Z. South winds should redevelop during the early afternoon hours Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Wednesday. Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms beginning early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure shifting further offshore should allow a weak trough to form overhead or nearby. Winds will be from the SE this evening, veering to the SSE or S by daybreak Sunday and easing. Seas will be 1-2 ft within 20 nm and 2-3 ft for the outer GA waters. Sunday and beyond: South to southeast flow will generally remain light, mainly less than 15 knots, to end the weekend. Then, between high pressure centered offshore and a trough of low pressure developing inland, winds will veer to south/southwest and will increase in speed during the upcoming week. Winds of 15-20 knots will become more common, especially with the afternoon sea breeze near the coast and during periods of nocturnal surging, and gusts to 25 knots cannot be ruled out, especially overnight around midweek. Seas of 1 to 3 ft through Tuesday will build to 3-5 ft mid to late week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the SC coast until 9 PM. With the upcoming full moon and onshore winds, minor coastal flooding is possible along parts of the southeast South Carolina coast (mainly for downtown Charleston) with the high tide again Sunday evening. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 We`ve seen ample convection develop along a stalled out boundary from southeast NoDak to north central IA. This environment has been characterized by mlCAPE of 1k-2k j/kg with virtually no CIN, hence the widespread convection that developed around noon. Bulk shear values have only been around 30 kts at best, hence the multi-cell, mostly non-severe storms that we have seen. RAP shows this instability configuration moving little, so the thunder threat really does`t look to wander much from its current confines through tonight. RAP h5 analysis along with water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still back by Aberdeen. This will work across northern MN to northwest WI tonight and as it does so, it will drive showers across the area, though with the instability not moving much this period, it looks to be just showers along and north of I-94. This wave will push showers through western WI Sunday morning, but after that, we expect a mainly dry Father`s Day, with cloudy conditions and cool east winds. Stayed close to the NBM for highs, which only has low/mid 60s in western WI, where it will remain cloudy. Hard to believe they`ll be much cooler than that given the sun is pretty much at it`s highest point right now. Main reasoning for a dry forecast tomorrow is lack of forcing, capped soundings given cool east winds, and dry mid/upper levels south of the main upper wave along the Canadian border. One area where maybe something could form in the afternoon is west of a Morris to Blue Earth (city) line, where temperatures will warm into the 70s, getting closer to the convective temp, but CAMs keep things dry, so saw no need to bring in a mention of low pops at this point. The lack of forcing/instability will follow us into Sunday night, so expect mainly dry conditions again, with precip chances best across northern MN, closer to the main upper wave. We`ll have light winds, so if skies were to clear out, we would have to be on the lookout for fog potential in eastern MN and western WI. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 It`s a lower confidence forecast in the extended as the northern stream will be setup across the northern CONUS to the south of broad h5 troughing across Canada. This will be a wavy flow and starting Tuesday night, we`ll have periodic chances for thunderstorms. As we normally see with the models in this type of regime, there`s little agreement on timing of any weak waves in this flow, so there`s pretty much non-stop chance pops Wednesday into Saturday. It won`t be raining much of the time, it`s just hard to pin down time periods where precip chances look better. This type of pattern will also lend itself to a continuation of near to a little below normal temperatures. For those wondering, where`s my summer, GEFS mean 500 heights continue to show a pattern shift to the warmer occurring for the end of June as an upper ridge becomes centered near the TX Panhandle with its ridge axis pointing our direction. We will be north of the highest heights, so we could be in ridge rider territory, but at the very least, it`s looking to be warmer and more humid to end the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Most of the rain has ended across the region but could still see a few scattered showers overnight. Confidence was to low to mention anything other than VCSH at this time. Overnight forecast soundings are again in good agreement with MVFR/IFR clouds developing, so have continued that trend in the TAF. There could be some scattered showers again Sunday, mainly at KRNH and KEAU, but overall the forecast is looking drier. Winds will again be light. KMSP... Have removed the mention of precip aside from some VCSH this evening because the forecast is trending drier. Still expect more low clouds overnight, with ceilings less than 1700 ft. These should gradually lift and scatter out by Sunday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR with very small chance for -TSRA. Wind lgt and vrb. Tue...VFR with small chance for MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts. Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 The potential for thunderstorms through the evening, then returning chances for storms Sunday night through Tuesday, are the primary forecast concerns. Northwest mid level flow extended from British Columbia into the Central Plains today. A mid level low was centered in Manitoba with a potent shortwave rotating east across North Dakota, triggering convection there. Farther south, a weak shortwave noted on water vapor satellite loops and RAP analysis was drifting through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa at early afternoon. Between these features was an area of enhanced lift in southern Minnesota into northern Iowa where severe thunderstorms had developed. A weak cold front associated with shortwave was limping southeast through eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon. Lingering showers from overnight MCV were dotting the radar screen across eastern Nebraska into west central Iowa. These showers and associated cloud cover had kept temperatures and thus instability low over most of our CWA, but sun had returned as of mid afternoon. Parts of southeast Nebraska remained cloud-free for a longer period today, and a few thunderstorms had popped there where MUCAPE had topped 3000 J/kg as per RAP analysis. However any weak convergence along front zone will be short-lived as front should exit Nebraska well before 00Z. Therefore it appears there is only a small window of opportunity both in space and time for storms this evening, generally through about 00Z and in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. If any storm maintain themselves, large hail will be possible given instability and modest bulk shear near 35kt. Will end rain chances later this evening as surface high pressure and northerly flow take hold. We should remain under that influence through Sunday afternoon before high slides east allowing return flow to set up. Mid level flow from Sunday night through Tuesday will remain broadly cyclonic across the region as Manitoba low moves across the northern border, merging with persistent deep low just east of Hudson Bay. Several shortwaves rippling through the Plains could trigger convection at just about any time as they interact with increasing moisture profiles. Perhaps the best chance for stronger convection will come on Tuesday as there is model consensus in showing stronger shortwave driving a frontal boundary into our region. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 A fairly active weather pattern will remain in place through the week as cyclonic flow aloft remains over the region through mid week, then a trend toward southwest flow takes hold by late week. Longer range models are generally similar in showing broad cyclonic flow across the Plains through Thursday morning, favoring at least small rain chances and somewhat cooler temperatures. GFS and ECMWF are both showing a more significant wave entering our region Wednesday afternoon, but a drier atmosphere after Tuesday`s cold front will likely limit convection. Beyond Thursday morning, GFS and ECMWF diverge in handling main jet pattern, with GFS maintaining broad cyclonic flow in the Plains south of low extending along the Canadian border. The ECMWF keeps more energy to the west in the Northern Rockies with southwest mid level flow in the Plains, which would promote warmer temperatures and aggressive northward moisture transport. In either case, continuing chances for convection will remain in the forecast, but potentially more potent storms are possible with ECMWF solution. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 VFR conditions through the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dergan LONG TERM...Dergan AVIATION...DeWald
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly return flow will result in warm, moist air advecting into the region through mid-week. A cold front will approach from the north on Wednesday, but stall north of the region through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 PM Saturday... Minor forecast changes. High clouds associated with both a weak mid level wave moving over eastern NC and residual exhaust from earlier Midwest/Ohio Valley convection continues to stream across the state, and this should continue with additional mid and high clouds noted upstream. Also seen on satellite are low clouds off the SC advecting toward the NW, but extrapolation and the latest few HRRR runs suggest that these will stay S of the forecast area. As winds have decreased this evening with fair to mostly clear skies facilitating radiational cooling, we`re seeing the usual wide range of temps from the mid 60s to mid 70s, but still expect lows to be generally around 60 to the mid 60s. -GIH Earlier discussion from 240 PM: Surface high pressure centered offshore and heading further out to sea today will continue to extend westward across NC through tonight. We`ll see scattered mid and high thin clouds through the rest of this afternoon, associated with passage of a weak mid level perturbation. Behind this wave, heights aloft will start a slight rebound late tonight. The cloud shield left over from today`s Midwest convection is likely to brush near or over NC overnight, making for fair skies overall. Dewpoints will continue to climb back up to more seasonable readings, and expect milder lows tonight, in the low-mid 60s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Saturday... Within the steady SW low level flow and brief mid level ridging, temps and dewpoints will continue to warm Sun, surpassing normals. The faster mid level flow will hold just to our N and NW, keeping the surface frontal zone and the path of convective systems largely to our N and NW. Forecast soundings indicate a warm stable layer at 700-800 mb, but lapse rates further aloft are expected to be sufficiently steep to push elevated CAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. With the likely close proximity of MCVs tracking just to our N and the moderate CAPE potential, will include isolated thunder across our far N sections late Sun afternoon and evening. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, as thicknesses climb steadily under partly cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 242 PM Saturday... Near to slightly above normal temperatures and growing precipitation chances will headline the long term period as central NC remains on the western periphery of the strengthening Bermuda High. With best jet dynamics displaced well north of the area closer to the US/Canadian border and generally flat/weak mid-level flow overhead, expect primarily diurnal favored POPs early in the work-week. Coverage is likely to grow each sequential afternoon as surface heating and moistening is maximized through midweek, enhanced additionally on Wednesday afternoon as several weak mid-level perturbation approach the area from the west. With modeled SFC-6km Bulk Shear values expected to remain near to below 20kts and CAPE values struggling to breach 1500 J/KG, thinking the severe threat at this time should remain isolated at best, with single to multicell clusters remaining the primary storm mode during this time frame. By Thursday evening, upper level troughing will intensify to our west, ushering a cold front through the region during the evening/overnight hours, once again igniting some additional showers and Tstorms. Behind the boundary, assuming it`s able to slide all the way through the area before stalling, expect a brief reprieve from the active weather pattern lasting into the first half of the weekend. By saturday evening however, the atmosphere is anticipated to reload rather quickly, marking the return of primarily diurnal precipitation chances back into the forecast. Afternoon high temperatures will settle into the upper-80s (northwest) to low 90s (southeast) with a degree or two shaved off mid to late week thanks to a more plentiful/robust CU field development. Overnight lows will settle into the upper-60s to low- 70s each night. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals over the next 24 hours, however there is a small chance for patchy IFR stratus at INT/GSO early Sun morning 09z-13z. High pressure centered off the NC coast will push further away from land but continue to extend westward across the state through Sun. The resulting low level flow from the SW will strengthen around daybreak Sun, with sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 kts and gusts to 15-20 kts from around 13z until 22z. Borderline LLWS is possible near the VA border late tonight, as a low level 30-35 kt jet from the SW crosses VA, however these conditions appear likely to hold just north of the northernmost terminals (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI). Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will persist through Sun evening, although an isolated storm is possible near the VA border late Sun afternoon into early evening. Weak LLWS is again possible Sun night near INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. We`ll see mostly VFR conditions Mon through Thu, but with an increasing chance for daily (mainly afternoon and evening) showers and storms. There is a slight chance of sub-VFR stratus for a few hours each morning Mon through Thu, with the greatest threat on Wed morning. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM/KCP NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
816 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .UPDATE... It has been a relatively active day across west central and southwest Florida. With the surface high ridge to the north, the wind flow has been predominately out of the east which allowed for east coast storms to develop earlier in the day and progress westward. As these storms marched west, some showers and storms developed along the west coast sea breeze around 20Z with the highest coverage over Lee County. As the west sea breeze and outflow boundaries collided with the east coast sea breeze, storm coverage increased with some moderate to strong storms forming along the coastal counties. Wind gusts were in the 20-30 knot range with rainfall amounts between 0.5 - 1.0 inch region wide with some higher amounts approaching 1.5 - 2.5 inches in heavier storms south of Tampa Bay. Conditions will quiet down over the next couple of hours with a tranquil night expected. Made some minor adjustments with POPs coverage based on latest radar and HRRR guidance. No other changes needed to the forecast. && .AVIATION... Most of the terminals have seen TSRA move through the area this afternoon with some MVFR/IFR conditions reported for VIS/CIG restrictions. Radar is still showing TSRA along the coast so will hold VCTS at all terminals and TEMPO TSRA with gusty winds and lower CIGS at all terminals except LAL through 03Z. Outside of outflow boundaries and thunderstorms, winds will be light at 6 knots or less through the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be very similiar to today with VCTS and TSRA possible after 18Z. No other aviation impacts expected. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build and slide east off the Mid- Atlantic coast, providing east to southeast winds for the next couple of days before winds turn onshore with the sea breeze. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the coast during the afternoons, with development across the offshore waters overnight along the land breeze. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher waves will be possible near thunderstorms. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 76 88 75 87 / 50 60 30 60 FMY 74 87 74 87 / 60 50 30 60 GIF 74 90 74 88 / 20 60 30 70 SRQ 74 88 74 87 / 60 50 30 60 BKV 72 91 72 89 / 50 50 30 60 SPG 77 88 76 87 / 50 50 30 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis