Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Main forecast concerns are on severe thunderstorm potential late
this afternoon through this evening.
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly between 3 PM and 10
PM. The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds, large
hail, and possibly a brief isolated tornado near the warm front.
Latest Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) initiate the bulk of the
thunderstorms through 4 PM, with the most concentrated area of
storms west of Interstate 35. Additional cells then develop near
the warm front over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. By
this time, RAP forecast sounding show surface based CAPE values
ranging from 1100 to 1500 J/kg. Shear is rather weak near the
start of the event with 0-3 km bulk shear values of 10 to 15 kts,
with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts. The low level shear
then increases as the shortwave moves into the region and we may
see 0-3 km line normal bulk shear increase to around 30 kts. If
this occurs we could see some bowing segments and cannot rule out
a very brief QLCS tornado near the warm front. Showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms will then linger into the overnight hours as
a shortwave continues to edge across the area. The bulk of this
activity look to be north of Interstate 90 during the overnight
hours. A few showers may linger over the area on Sunday before
ending as a very weak ridge moves over region.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Forecast highlights for next week are, more sumer-like temperatures,
and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Flow aloft turns zonal Monday night through Thursday with several
features to watch bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. The timeframes with the highest confidence for showers and
storms at this times are Tuesday night through Wednesday. Flow aloft
then looks to turn more southwest going into next weekend with
temperatures edging up and the potential for an active weather
pattern, especially if the ECMWF solution holds. Will lean heavily
toward a model consensus blend from midweek going into next weekend.
Plan on high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through much of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
The area of rain has just about moved past KLSE and expect that it
will do so by 16.06Z and do not plan to include in the new
forecast. Ceilings for the most part have already come down to
MVFR/IFR and with the light flow pattern through Sunday, there
will be little improvement until afternoon when these will slowly
begin to improve. Some VFR ceilings should then start to develop
Sunday evening.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1051 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail into next weekend. An
inland surface trough will develop early week and will persist
over the Southeast into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1050 PM: Weak showers continue to drift across the
Charleston County waters. I will extended SCHC PoPs through most
of tonight. In addition, temperatures have been cooling slower
that forecast. I will update the forecast to warm low
temperatures a degree or two.
As of 750 PM: A weak sea breeze was detected on KCLX west of
the radar site. In the wake of the sea breeze, sfc dewpoints
are forecast to rise to around 70 degrees. HRRR and NAM sfc
condensation pressure deficits fall below 5 mbs across a good
portion of the SC Lowcountry. I will hold off on adding ground
fog to the forecast at this time, but it could be added in a
later update. Otherwise, the current forecast appears on track.
As of 545 PM: KCLX and visible satellite indicated no seabreeze
has formed off the coastline late this afternoon. As a result,
Cu across the forecast area remains sct and rather shallow. I
will update the forecast to increase sky cover over the next two
hours, then cloud cover will decrease after sunset. The update
will also feature a headline for a Coastal Flood Advisory until
9 PM.
Previous Discussion:
The mid-levels will consist of semi-zonal flow overhead. At the
surface, high pressure will move further offshore, allowing a
weak trough to form overhead or nearby our area. This will cause
clouds and dew points to gradually increase overnight. Though, dry
weather will prevail. With all of this factored in, lows will
be a few degrees below normal, but much warmer than they were
last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday: As high pressure consolidates offshore, our
brief interlude of unusually dry/cool weather will transition to
more typical heat and humidity, accompanied by greater chances for
diurnal showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday, after a cool start temperatures should recover into the
upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations inland from the beaches.
Onshore flow will push dewpoints into the lower 70s close to the
coast/behind the sea breeze, but inland dewpoint should remain in
the 60s. As the sea breeze pushes inland, guidance suggests that a
few showers/thunderstorms will develop/dissipate, particularly
across southeast Georgia. However, a persistent capping inversion
around 700 mb suggests that coverage of convection should remain
sparse, and potential for brief/pulse severe thunderstorms should
remain low.
Monday and Tuesday, dewpoints in the 70s will become more
widespread, and PWAT values will increase into the 1.75 to 2 inch
range. This environment will support greater coverage of convection,
especially as the sea breeze pushes inland during the
afternoon/evening hours. For now, maximum inland PoPs are capped at
45 to 50 percent, but locally greater PoPs could eventually be
required. Also, the potential for isolated/brief pulse severe
thunderstorms with damaging wet microbursts will be greater as
compared with the Thursday through Sunday time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid level short wave over the mountains Tuesday night is forecast
to dampen and shift off the GA/SC coast late Wednesday. Faster flow
aloft and a series of mid level short waves will shift over the
southeast states Thursday and Friday. The end of the week should
feature higher chances for showers and tstms. Dependent on the
timing of a significant upper disturbance Thursday/Friday, we could
see a potential for organized convection and perhaps a risk for
severe weather at some point. We will need a bit more model
consolidation before we begin to highlight a possible window with
any certainty. The region may see a bit more upper ridging to start
off next weekend. Temps each day will be above climo for the most
part.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFS: A weak sea breeze was detected on KCLX west of the
terminals. In the wake of the sea breeze, sfc dewpoints are
forecast to rise to around 70 degrees. HRRR and NAM sfc
condensation pressure deficits fall below 5 mbs in and around
KCHS and KSAV. I would expect that ground fog will be possible
during the pre-dawn hours, highlighted with a TEMPO from 9Z-12Z.
South winds should redevelop during the early afternoon hours
Sunday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Wednesday. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms
beginning early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure shifting further offshore should allow a
weak trough to form overhead or nearby. Winds will be from the
SE this evening, veering to the SSE or S by daybreak Sunday and
easing. Seas will be 1-2 ft within 20 nm and 2-3 ft for the
outer GA waters.
Sunday and beyond: South to southeast flow will generally remain
light, mainly less than 15 knots, to end the weekend. Then, between
high pressure centered offshore and a trough of low pressure
developing inland, winds will veer to south/southwest and will
increase in speed during the upcoming week. Winds of 15-20 knots
will become more common, especially with the afternoon sea breeze
near the coast and during periods of nocturnal surging, and gusts to
25 knots cannot be ruled out, especially overnight around midweek.
Seas of 1 to 3 ft through Tuesday will build to 3-5 ft mid to
late week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the SC coast until 9
PM.
With the upcoming full moon and onshore winds, minor coastal
flooding is possible along parts of the southeast South Carolina
coast (mainly for downtown Charleston) with the high tide again
Sunday evening.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
We`ve seen ample convection develop along a stalled out boundary
from southeast NoDak to north central IA. This environment has been
characterized by mlCAPE of 1k-2k j/kg with virtually no CIN, hence
the widespread convection that developed around noon. Bulk shear
values have only been around 30 kts at best, hence the multi-cell,
mostly non-severe storms that we have seen. RAP shows this
instability configuration moving little, so the thunder threat
really does`t look to wander much from its current confines through
tonight. RAP h5 analysis along with water vapor imagery shows the
main shortwave still back by Aberdeen. This will work across
northern MN to northwest WI tonight and as it does so, it will drive
showers across the area, though with the instability not moving much
this period, it looks to be just showers along and north of I-94.
This wave will push showers through western WI Sunday morning, but
after that, we expect a mainly dry Father`s Day, with cloudy
conditions and cool east winds. Stayed close to the NBM for highs,
which only has low/mid 60s in western WI, where it will remain
cloudy. Hard to believe they`ll be much cooler than that given the
sun is pretty much at it`s highest point right now. Main reasoning
for a dry forecast tomorrow is lack of forcing, capped soundings
given cool east winds, and dry mid/upper levels south of the main
upper wave along the Canadian border. One area where maybe
something could form in the afternoon is west of a Morris to Blue
Earth (city) line, where temperatures will warm into the 70s,
getting closer to the convective temp, but CAMs keep things dry, so
saw no need to bring in a mention of low pops at this point.
The lack of forcing/instability will follow us into Sunday night, so
expect mainly dry conditions again, with precip chances best across
northern MN, closer to the main upper wave. We`ll have light winds,
so if skies were to clear out, we would have to be on the lookout
for fog potential in eastern MN and western WI.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
It`s a lower confidence forecast in the extended as the northern
stream will be setup across the northern CONUS to the south of
broad h5 troughing across Canada. This will be a wavy flow and
starting Tuesday night, we`ll have periodic chances for
thunderstorms. As we normally see with the models in this type of
regime, there`s little agreement on timing of any weak waves in
this flow, so there`s pretty much non-stop chance pops Wednesday
into Saturday. It won`t be raining much of the time, it`s just
hard to pin down time periods where precip chances look better.
This type of pattern will also lend itself to a continuation of
near to a little below normal temperatures.
For those wondering, where`s my summer, GEFS mean 500 heights
continue to show a pattern shift to the warmer occurring for the
end of June as an upper ridge becomes centered near the TX
Panhandle with its ridge axis pointing our direction. We will be
north of the highest heights, so we could be in ridge rider
territory, but at the very least, it`s looking to be warmer and
more humid to end the month.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Most of the rain has ended across the region but could still see a
few scattered showers overnight. Confidence was to low to mention
anything other than VCSH at this time. Overnight forecast
soundings are again in good agreement with MVFR/IFR clouds
developing, so have continued that trend in the TAF. There could
be some scattered showers again Sunday, mainly at KRNH and KEAU,
but overall the forecast is looking drier. Winds will again be
light.
KMSP...
Have removed the mention of precip aside from some VCSH this
evening because the forecast is trending drier. Still expect more
low clouds overnight, with ceilings less than 1700 ft. These
should gradually lift and scatter out by Sunday evening.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR with very small chance for -TSRA. Wind lgt and vrb.
Tue...VFR with small chance for MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
The potential for thunderstorms through the evening, then returning
chances for storms Sunday night through Tuesday, are the primary
forecast concerns.
Northwest mid level flow extended from British Columbia into the
Central Plains today. A mid level low was centered in Manitoba with
a potent shortwave rotating east across North Dakota, triggering
convection there. Farther south, a weak shortwave noted on water
vapor satellite loops and RAP analysis was drifting through eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa at early afternoon. Between these features
was an area of enhanced lift in southern Minnesota into northern
Iowa where severe thunderstorms had developed.
A weak cold front associated with shortwave was limping southeast
through eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon.
Lingering showers from overnight MCV were dotting the radar screen
across eastern Nebraska into west central Iowa. These showers and
associated cloud cover had kept temperatures and thus instability
low over most of our CWA, but sun had returned as of mid afternoon.
Parts of southeast Nebraska remained cloud-free for a longer
period today, and a few thunderstorms had popped there where
MUCAPE had topped 3000 J/kg as per RAP analysis. However any weak
convergence along front zone will be short-lived as front should
exit Nebraska well before 00Z. Therefore it appears there is only
a small window of opportunity both in space and time for storms
this evening, generally through about 00Z and in far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. If any storm maintain themselves,
large hail will be possible given instability and modest bulk
shear near 35kt.
Will end rain chances later this evening as surface high pressure
and northerly flow take hold. We should remain under that influence
through Sunday afternoon before high slides east allowing return
flow to set up.
Mid level flow from Sunday night through Tuesday will remain broadly
cyclonic across the region as Manitoba low moves across the northern
border, merging with persistent deep low just east of Hudson Bay.
Several shortwaves rippling through the Plains could trigger
convection at just about any time as they interact with increasing
moisture profiles.
Perhaps the best chance for stronger convection will come on Tuesday
as there is model consensus in showing stronger shortwave driving a
frontal boundary into our region.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
A fairly active weather pattern will remain in place through the
week as cyclonic flow aloft remains over the region through mid
week, then a trend toward southwest flow takes hold by late week.
Longer range models are generally similar in showing broad cyclonic
flow across the Plains through Thursday morning, favoring at least
small rain chances and somewhat cooler temperatures. GFS and ECMWF
are both showing a more significant wave entering our region
Wednesday afternoon, but a drier atmosphere after Tuesday`s cold
front will likely limit convection.
Beyond Thursday morning, GFS and ECMWF diverge in handling main jet
pattern, with GFS maintaining broad cyclonic flow in the Plains
south of low extending along the Canadian border. The ECMWF keeps
more energy to the west in the Northern Rockies with southwest
mid level flow in the Plains, which would promote warmer
temperatures and aggressive northward moisture transport. In
either case, continuing chances for convection will remain in the
forecast, but potentially more potent storms are possible with
ECMWF solution.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...DeWald
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly return flow will result in warm, moist air advecting into
the region through mid-week. A cold front will approach from the
north on Wednesday, but stall north of the region through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 PM Saturday...
Minor forecast changes. High clouds associated with both a weak mid
level wave moving over eastern NC and residual exhaust from earlier
Midwest/Ohio Valley convection continues to stream across the state,
and this should continue with additional mid and high clouds noted
upstream. Also seen on satellite are low clouds off the SC advecting
toward the NW, but extrapolation and the latest few HRRR runs
suggest that these will stay S of the forecast area. As winds have
decreased this evening with fair to mostly clear skies facilitating
radiational cooling, we`re seeing the usual wide range of temps from
the mid 60s to mid 70s, but still expect lows to be generally around
60 to the mid 60s. -GIH
Earlier discussion from 240 PM: Surface high pressure centered
offshore and heading further out to sea today will continue to
extend westward across NC through tonight. We`ll see scattered mid
and high thin clouds through the rest of this afternoon, associated
with passage of a weak mid level perturbation. Behind this wave,
heights aloft will start a slight rebound late tonight. The cloud
shield left over from today`s Midwest convection is likely to brush
near or over NC overnight, making for fair skies overall. Dewpoints
will continue to climb back up to more seasonable readings, and
expect milder lows tonight, in the low-mid 60s. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...
Within the steady SW low level flow and brief mid level ridging,
temps and dewpoints will continue to warm Sun, surpassing normals.
The faster mid level flow will hold just to our N and NW, keeping
the surface frontal zone and the path of convective systems largely
to our N and NW. Forecast soundings indicate a warm stable layer at
700-800 mb, but lapse rates further aloft are expected to be
sufficiently steep to push elevated CAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. With
the likely close proximity of MCVs tracking just to our N and the
moderate CAPE potential, will include isolated thunder across our
far N sections late Sun afternoon and evening. Expect highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, as thicknesses climb steadily under partly
cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM Saturday...
Near to slightly above normal temperatures and growing precipitation
chances will headline the long term period as central NC remains on
the western periphery of the strengthening Bermuda High. With best
jet dynamics displaced well north of the area closer to the
US/Canadian border and generally flat/weak mid-level flow overhead,
expect primarily diurnal favored POPs early in the work-week.
Coverage is likely to grow each sequential afternoon as surface
heating and moistening is maximized through midweek, enhanced
additionally on Wednesday afternoon as several weak mid-level
perturbation approach the area from the west. With modeled SFC-6km
Bulk Shear values expected to remain near to below 20kts and CAPE
values struggling to breach 1500 J/KG, thinking the severe threat at
this time should remain isolated at best, with single to multicell
clusters remaining the primary storm mode during this time frame.
By Thursday evening, upper level troughing will intensify to our
west, ushering a cold front through the region during the
evening/overnight hours, once again igniting some additional showers
and Tstorms. Behind the boundary, assuming it`s able to slide all
the way through the area before stalling, expect a brief reprieve
from the active weather pattern lasting into the first half of the
weekend. By saturday evening however, the atmosphere is anticipated
to reload rather quickly, marking the return of primarily diurnal
precipitation chances back into the forecast.
Afternoon high temperatures will settle into the upper-80s
(northwest) to low 90s (southeast) with a degree or two shaved off
mid to late week thanks to a more plentiful/robust CU field
development. Overnight lows will settle into the upper-60s to low-
70s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals over the next 24
hours, however there is a small chance for patchy IFR stratus at
INT/GSO early Sun morning 09z-13z. High pressure centered off the NC
coast will push further away from land but continue to extend
westward across the state through Sun. The resulting low level flow
from the SW will strengthen around daybreak Sun, with sustained
speeds increasing to 10-15 kts and gusts to 15-20 kts from around
13z until 22z. Borderline LLWS is possible near the VA border late
tonight, as a low level 30-35 kt jet from the SW crosses VA, however
these conditions appear likely to hold just north of the
northernmost terminals (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI).
Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will persist through Sun
evening, although an isolated storm is possible near the VA border
late Sun afternoon into early evening. Weak LLWS is again possible
Sun night near INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. We`ll see mostly VFR conditions Mon
through Thu, but with an increasing chance for daily (mainly
afternoon and evening) showers and storms. There is a slight chance
of sub-VFR stratus for a few hours each morning Mon through Thu,
with the greatest threat on Wed morning. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJM/KCP
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
816 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.UPDATE...
It has been a relatively active day across west central and
southwest Florida. With the surface high ridge to the north, the
wind flow has been predominately out of the east which allowed for
east coast storms to develop earlier in the day and progress
westward. As these storms marched west, some showers and storms
developed along the west coast sea breeze around 20Z with the
highest coverage over Lee County. As the west sea breeze and outflow
boundaries collided with the east coast sea breeze, storm coverage
increased with some moderate to strong storms forming along the
coastal counties. Wind gusts were in the 20-30 knot range with
rainfall amounts between 0.5 - 1.0 inch region wide with some higher
amounts approaching 1.5 - 2.5 inches in heavier storms south of
Tampa Bay. Conditions will quiet down over the next couple of hours
with a tranquil night expected. Made some minor adjustments with
POPs coverage based on latest radar and HRRR guidance. No other
changes needed to the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the terminals have seen TSRA move through the area this
afternoon with some MVFR/IFR conditions reported for VIS/CIG
restrictions. Radar is still showing TSRA along the coast so will
hold VCTS at all terminals and TEMPO TSRA with gusty winds and lower
CIGS at all terminals except LAL through 03Z. Outside of outflow
boundaries and thunderstorms, winds will be light at 6 knots or less
through the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be very similiar to today
with VCTS and TSRA possible after 18Z. No other aviation impacts
expected.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build and slide east off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, providing east to southeast winds for the next
couple of days before winds turn onshore with the sea breeze.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the coast during the
afternoons, with development across the offshore waters overnight
along the land breeze. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher
waves will be possible near thunderstorms.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 76 88 75 87 / 50 60 30 60
FMY 74 87 74 87 / 60 50 30 60
GIF 74 90 74 88 / 20 60 30 70
SRQ 74 88 74 87 / 60 50 30 60
BKV 72 91 72 89 / 50 50 30 60
SPG 77 88 76 87 / 50 50 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis