Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
956 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
No more big changes to the forecast this evening as a few
additional showers appear to forming over central Weld County.
Previous update had isolated-scattered showers continuing over
northern Weld and Logan Counties through about midnight. Staellite
imagery shows clouds tops over northeast Colorado gradually
warming, so showers should dissipate in the next hour or so.
UPDATE Issued at 651 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Most of the afternoon and evening convection has moved out over
the plains with more stable conditions developing along the
foothills and adjacent plains. Have dropped the severe
thunderstorm watch since storms have moved out of Lincoln County
entirely and will be out of Washington County very soon. The
strongest winds from the afternoon storms were up along the
Wyoming border, but these storms are now losing their strength as
well. Have updated the forecast to remove most of the evening and
overnight shower and thunderstorm activity. Cloud cover should
hang around for a few more hours. Gusty winds due to outflow
boundaries from the afternoon convection will last for another
hour or two and then diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Lift associated with a shortwave upstream will continue to push
through Colorado late afternoon and evening helping to spread
convection across the region. Moderate westerly winds have created
downsloping over the Front Range into Denver with dewpoints
registering in the 35-38 in range. Some mixing out east has dropped
moisture into the 40s, but still expect strong to potentially severe
storms east and south of a Limon to Akron line for late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Best areas for convection will
be over the higher elevation of the Palmer Divide and east toward
Kansas. Lapse rates are decent in the Lincoln county area with lower
levels near dry adiabatic with decent shear through the mid levels.
Main hazards with these storms will be strong to severe wind gusts
and 1 inch hail. For this evening, storms will gradually come to an
end from West to East. Higher mid and lower level moisture will
continue bringing increased cloud cover for the overnight hours.
This will help moderate overnight lows a bit with temperatures in
the 50s.
For Saturday, the shortwave will push across CO through the evening
hours with some stability behind it. Upper level flow will
transition to the West, then NW through the morning hours. Models
show a weak disturbance moving through around noon time with a
surface front increasing NNE winds at the surface. This will help
with storm initiation along the foothills and Palmer divide region
by early Saturday afternoon. Upper level steering flow is weaker but
mainly WSW that will help to push storms towards the East. PW values
continue to be elevated with values above 0.85 to an inch over the
East. The areas that appear to have the best chance for convection
will be over the higher terrain of the northern mountains pushing
South into the central mountains and southern foothills south of I-
70. PW values are not as high as across the plains, but some storms
could drop some moderate rain showers and lightning. Storms will
stretch eastward into the evening hours with the bigger storms
expected to stay South of our CWA. Storms could bring moderate to
heavy rain as well as gusty winds and the possibility for 1 inch
hail with the stronger cells. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front with highs in the 70s on the plains and 50s to 60s
for the higher elevations.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Colorado will be characterized with a more unsettled weather
pattern from Saturday through next Tuesday with cooler than normal
temperatures and a good chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
For Saturday night, an upper trof will be moving across Colorado
with weak upward ascent in the evening then weak drying and
subsidence towards Sunday morning. Still a fair amount of moisture
and shallow upslope to keep a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast at least through Saturday evening with
the trof. Flow aloft is rather weak so severe threat is minimal but
could be some heavy rainers with PW values 3/4 to close to an inch
on the plains.
On Sunday, there is weak ridging with light westerly flow aloft
early in the day, then a cold front is expected to drop southward on
the plains during the late afternoon and evening which will likely
focus showers and thunderstorms into Sunday evening. There is
better directional/speed shear in the atmosphere so a few storms
could be severe with also potential for heavy rain with the
stronger storms.
For Monday and Tuesday, there will still be a few weak disturbances
that will move through the west to northwest flow, and these days
expected to be the coolest days of the week. The shear is
marginal but could see a few strong to severe storms late Monday
with modest south to southeast low level flow. There will be
considerable drying and more subsident airmass moving in later
Tuesday night, and this drier, stronger northwest flow pattern
will continue through Thursday. Temperatures will be warmer again
with only a slight chance of late day showers, mainly mountains
and higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Cloudiness over the Denver area should decrease over the next few
hours, and winds should turn to southerly after 06z, according to
the HRRR model. A surge of northerly winds is forecast to move
through by about 15z with north to northeast winds continuing
through the day. The latest HRRR, RAP and NAM model runs show most
of Saturday`s shower activity remaining over the higher terrain to
the west of Denver. By late afternoon or evening, there may be a
few storms that develop on the outflow boundaries generated by the
foothills shower activity.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Increased pops into the likely category for most zones through
midnight. The supercell potential is decreasing rapidly, as MCS
generation begins, a bit further west than expected. Damaging bow
echo entering Scott county at 7:15 pm will thrive and accelerate
through the northern and northeast zones for the next several
hours. Given dewpoints well into the 60s ahead of this bowing
complex, damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are a real
threat as the complex encounters increasing instability. A new
severe thunderstorm watch is expected to be needed for the
remaining eastern zones eventually this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Instability will continue to increase rapidly through this
afternoon as moisture advection continues, with surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s at most locations. Expect CAPE to continue
to mount beneath a warm elevated mixed layer through this
afternoon. As such, expect SW KS to remain convection free through
about 4 pm, when storms will enter the western zones. With CAPE
already cresting 3000 J/kg across the SW zones as of 11 am, values
of 4000-5000 are expected late this afternoon prior to
convection.
SPC has upgraded wind/hail probabilities to an enhanced risk as of
the late morning update. All indications suggest that scattered
supercells will initiate near the CO/KS border near 4 pm. Shear
and CAPE will support supercells during the first hours of
convective evolution, with large hail likely. High instability
will support hail to the size of baseballs with any discrete
supercell through 7 pm, primarily west of US 83. Starting around 7
pm, MCS genesis will begin across the central CWA, with hail size
diminishing and the wind threat increasing. Damaging wind gusts
of 60-70 mph are likely from any line segments across
central/eastern zones through this evening. Storms should proceed
quick enough to avoid significant hydrology issues, but will watch
closely with moist topsoils at many locations. Included large
hail and damaging wind in the grids for all zones this evening.
Being a Friday night in the early summer, there are many outdoor
recreational activities that will likely be impacted by these
storms this afternoon and evening. Remember, you don`t need a
tornado for a thunderstorm to threaten life and property. Large
hail, damaging winds and lightning are very real threats to those
without available indoor shelter.
Subsidence behind the expected thunderstorm complex will clear the
sky and supply a light northerly wind shift by sunrise Saturday.
Much of daylight Saturday will be dry, as the atmosphere recovers
from the thunderstorm complex. Eventually CAPE will rebuild by
late afternoon, particularly south and east of Dodge City, with
CAPE as high as 5000 J/kg near Medicine Lodge. Again, much of this
energy will likely remained capped through at least 4 pm. If a
storm can initiate in this SE zone environment 4-7 pm Sat, then
supercells with very large hail are likely. 12z NAM and model
consensus shows convection redeveloping west of SW KS by 7 pm
Saturday, before progressing into the western zones as another MCS
with heavy rain and damaging winds Saturday evening. ECMWF has
shown great consistency showing strong MCS generation across the
southern/SE zones late Saturday, and now shorter range models are
showing similar solutions. Strong winds and flooding issues will
be concerns through Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Active convective pattern will continue Sunday through Tuesday
night, with periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Shortwave that will help initiate and organize Saturday`s severe
thunderstorms is progged to be east of SW KS, or at least
progressing east of SW KS, by late Sunday. Subsidence behind this
feature should induce a relative minimum in convective coverage
Sunday afternoon/night, with most activity east of SW KS. 12z
ECMWF suggests this, with support from extended 12z NAM. Still,
at least chance category pops are warranted, especially SE zones.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday
through Tuesday night. At least chance category pop grids from the
NBM are warranted and accepted. Temperatures will change little
Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
12z ECMWF shows rain chances dwindling late next week, Thursday
and Friday, along with warmer afternoon temperatures. This follows
the NBM trends and the 12z MEX guidance, with high temperatures by
Friday afternoon near 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
VFR will continue for the majority of this TAF cycle. That said, a
round of thunderstorms is still expected this evening. Satellite
and radar trends in Colorado suggest the HRRR model has a good
handle on convective timing, so little change was made to the
convective TEMPO groups as seen in the 18z TAFs. Expect storms to
be near GCK/LBL by 00z Sat, DDC by 01z, and HYS by 02z. Some
storms will reach severe limits, with outflow wind gusts as high
as 60 kts. The expected thunderstorm complex will move quickly,
with VFR and a light northerly wind shift through 12z Sat. VFR/SKC
and light winds will prevail early Saturday, with more convection
expected Saturday afternoon/night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 88 61 80 / 70 20 40 30
GCK 59 88 58 81 / 70 20 50 30
EHA 58 86 57 77 / 30 30 50 30
LBL 60 87 59 78 / 20 20 40 30
HYS 61 88 61 81 / 70 20 30 20
P28 65 89 64 84 / 70 10 40 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
912 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
...Overnight Mesoscale Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Still monitoring the potential for overnight thunderstorms across
mainly southern Iowa tonight. 00Z RAOB data indicated a plume of
moderate moisture just to our west with the KOAX/KTOP soundings
showing 850mb dwpts increasing to 12C/13C respectively...with sfc
dewpoints now in the low-mid 60s west of I-35.
As of 02Z /9pm CDT/ seeing a few storms flare up over SE Nebraska
with a couple severe thunderstorms warnings being issued.
Although southern Iowa will remain on the northern fringe of an
increasing LLJ, still believe adequate moisture convergence and
isentropic ascent will lead to scattered tstorms developing after
05Z /midnight CDT/ mainly south of I-80. MUCAPE values will range
from 500-1500 J/KG, but effective shear will remain modest. Thus,
could see a strong storm or two - but widespread severe wx is not
anticipated.
MF
&&
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Initial push of moisture/theta-e advection produced light showers
across central Iowa into mid afternoon. Most amounts remained under
one tenth of an inch as moisture was still somewhat limited with the
deeper moisture to the west of the state. This will change into the
evening and overnight as decent low level flow from the southwest
will transport the moisture into the state. The CAMs and in
particular the HRRR indicate some development by mid to late evening
across east central portions of the forecast area with some back
building - back towards the instability axis that lies to the west.
The isolated to scattered convection will persist overnight before
gradually ending as the LLJ points more into Illinois. There is
little threat of severe weather overnight with main concerns from
localized heavy downpours.
Weak surface low will move into western Iowa on Saturday with a
boundary extending eastward near Highway 20 to Highway 30 corridor.
Dewpoints will return back into the 60s in the warm sector and
instability values are expected to climb above 3000 J/KG along and
south of this boundary. While instability is quite strong, overall
shear is rather weak with 0-1KM values of around 5knots with deeper
layer shear (0-6KM) rising to around 25kts or so. While
organization will likely be difficult to sustain in the weakly
sheared environment, the high CAPE values will support strong
updrafts. Large hail appears to be the main threat along with
damaging winds. The weak surface flow/shear should limit any
tornado potential with only threat near the boundary where low level
shear will be maximized. Convection will move south and east
through the forecast area during the early evening with the bulk of
precipitation east of the area after midnight as the system pulls to
the east.
Weather will be relatively quiet on Sunday into Monday with
seasonable temperatures. However, the weather appears unsettled
thereafter as moisture returns and a series of system drop out of
the Pacific Northwest and into the Midwest from the middle of the
week into the following weekend.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through this
evening with CIGs currently aoa 4k feet. Low level south/southwest
winds will continue to push additional moisture into Iowa
overnight leading to the development of low stratus with CIGS
falling to borderline VFR or more likely MVFR. Additionally,
latest short range models continue to indicate shower/thunderstorm
development after 06Z as the low level jet strengthens. Most
likely impacts would be at KOTM - with KDSM on the northern edge
of this activity. At this time, included only VCSH at KOTM/KDSM until
confidence increases. There will likely be a break in the
thunderstorm activity from mid-morning until early afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms are likely after 21Z Saturday - some of
which could be strong to severe.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fowle
DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Fowle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Aloft: Aircraft obs/WV imgry and RAP tropopause analyses showed
WNW flow over the CONUS with a rdg just off the W coast and a trof
along the E coast. A weak trof extended from MT-UT-Srn CA. This
trof will cont mvg ESE and cross NEB/KS tomorrow.
Surface: High pres was over the SE USA while a wavy front
extended acrs the Nrn USA to low pres over Srn SA. A wk cool front
extended SW from this low thru the Nrn Rckys. This low will mv
into ND by 12Z/Sat to near ABR by 00Z/Sun. As this occurs the wk
cool front will mv into NEB/KS tomorrow and dissipate. This front
will hv no effect other than to shift winds from S to NW.
Rest of this aftn: M/sunny over N-cntrl KS. P/sunny over S-cntrl
NEB as there are extensive patches of thick cirrostratus overhead
...plus a few stratocu.
Tonight: The aprchg trof will aid in initiating sct tstms over
the high plns of WY/CO once again this afternoon. The 12Z/HREF
indicates the most aggressive tstm dvlpmt will be over Wrn KS.
These storms should grow upscale into an MCS that mvs E...mostly
along and S of I-70. However...sct tstms will be psbl N of this
complex...all the way up to I-80. Interestingly...the 09Z/SREF
suggests higher rain probs over S-cntrl NEB than KS.
So basically we`re expecting isold-sct tstms mainly before
midnight then dcrsg clds toward dawn. There are a cpl HRRR
ensemble members that keep a few tstms going after midnight over
S-cntrl NEB.
These storms will be mvg into an corridor of mdt instability with
SREF MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep lyr shr will be 25-30 kt. With
the aprchg trof...this environment will be supportive of
tstms...some of which could be svr. Gvn that tstms will dvlp in
the deeply-mixed air to the W...the storms will be outflow
dominant and quickly form cold pools that will result in multicell
convective mode and the greatest potential for svr downburst
winds. Hail will be a secondary threat.
Sat: Probably dry and partly cldy. I do hv a very low 20% POP
from late morning thru afternoon just in case an isold tstm pops
up per the few mdls that output some QPF. There really isn`t much
lift/forcing.
SREF MLCAPE is fcst to range from 1500-3500 J/kg from NW-SE acrs
the CWA. Deep lyr shr will be 30-35 kt. So if something does dvlp
it could be svr...but the chance is very low that anything
actually forms.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Aloft: The last 2 runs of global mdls and the EC ens mean are in
good agreement that WNW flow will cont thru Wed before
transitioning to SW flow. The longwave flow will retrograde during
this time period as the low currently near the Aleutians is fcst
to mv thru SW Canada into the Nrn Rckys by next Thu-Fri.
Surface: A cool front will cross the CWA Sun followed by wk high
pres. Wk Canadian high pres will then take over Mon. It is fcst to
slide into the upr Midwest Tue. This means 3 days of upslope low-
lvl flow. A low pres will mv into SW Canada Wed with a warm front
dvlpg from MT-CO. This front will mv thru here Wed night...putting
the CWA into the warm sector of a deep low over the Canadian
Prairies. The associated cool front is then slated to mv thru
NEB/KS Fri.
Temps: Heights/thicknesses will average below normal resulting in
a continuation of very comfortable early summer wx (more
springlike than summerlike). Temps will be cooler than normal Sun-
Wed...with one day (probably Tue) much cooler than normal. Most
mdls are fcstg that parts of the CWA could see temps jammed in the
60s Tue. Our fcst is not indicating that yet...but it`s within
the realm of possibility.
Rain: Sct tstms will dvlp daily ovr the high plains of WY/CO and
the NEB panhandle. Some of these storms will survive and mv E into
the CWA. Tue into Tue night appears to be the best chance for
widespread rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
SHRAs and TSRAs are expected to develop across the area over the
next couple of hours and transition east overnight. Expect CIGS to
lower to near MVFR levels with this activity for a period of time,
although due to uncertainty in timing left a SCT 3KFT deck in the
TAFs for now and will amend as necessary based on CU development.
Otherwise, activity should come to an end before daybreak with
VFR conditions and winds shifting and becoming more westerly by
early afternoon when additional small chances for thunderstorms
will be possible - albeit very low probability.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
642 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Thunderstorm chances this evening and again Saturday are the primary
forecast concerns.
South to southwest flow that began Thursday has continued today, and
has pumped lower 60s dew points back into the region. Weak wave that
brought rain to our area this morning had pushed well into Iowa this
afternoon, but ripples in the mainly west-northwest mid level flow
were noted in western Nebraska and Wyoming. And aside from southwest
winds gusting over 25 mph, not too much to talk about on the surface
map. However there is an area of cumulus that appears to be becoming
more congestus-y looking in southeast Nebraska, curiously in the
same area a couple of hi-res models develop thunderstorms this
evening.
Instability is rather low across eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa, but a relative maximum near 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE was noted on
RAP analysis extending from central into southeast Nebraska.
Moisture convergence was minimal as well, but the congestus cu field
suggests otherwise. A couple of convection-allowing models develop
convection in this same area after 00Z this evening, and with weak
mid level shortwave riding overhead, will certainly keep a chance
for thunderstorms there, generally near and south of the Omaha
Metro. Continued development to the east overnight is possible as
well, and this could linger into the morning Saturday, especially
across southwest Iowa.
A stronger mid level wave dropping southeast into the Northern
Plains on Saturday will drive a cold front into our CWA by mid day.
There is decent consensus for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along this front and spread southeast through the afternoon. Strong
to severe storms are possible given 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30kt of
bulk shear, however convergence along frontal zone is weak. And the
exact evolution/propagation of convection is in question as models
are offering varied frontal boundary movements. Would expect most
activity to be where maximum low level convergence will reside
across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by late afternoon, but
lingering instability behind the front will keep some chance for
thunder across much of eastern Nebraska into the evening.
Shortwave and front move well east of our area overnight Saturday,
taking rain chances with it through Sunday and Sunday night. Then
return flow under cyclonic mid level flow suggests showers and
isolated thunder will be possible Monday, especially across
northeast Nebraska. Temperatures will drop a category or two each
day through Monday, from the middle 80s Saturday to the middle 70s
by Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Looks like upper flow pattern through next week will favor cooler
than normal temperatures and occasional shower and thunderstorm
chances just about every day. Of course timing of any convection
will be highly dependent on day-to-day smaller-scale features, so
confidence in naming any one 24-hour rain-free period is low at this
point. However, it appears Tuesday and Thursday are the most likely
days when afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will be at
their lowest.
Broad cyclonic flow is forecast from the Northern Rockies through
the Mid Atlantic the first half of the week as deep mid level low
remains anchored east of Hudson Bay. A second mid level low
originating in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to spread east into
northern British Columbia by Wednesday, then drop south and
southeast into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains by late
week. Models are fairly consistent with the first half of this
scenario, but diverge late in the week with handling of British
Columbia low. GFS ejects a piece of energy into the Northern Plains
on Thursday, which would maintain a cool and rainy forecast. The
ECMWF drops the low into the Northern Rockies which pumps up heights
ahead of it in the Central Plains, suggesting a warmer and mainly
dry forecast for Thursday.
Earlier in the week, surface high pressure should be in control of
the weather in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa on Tuesday, which
would normally mean a dry forecast. However mid level flow riding
over the cooler surface high may result in scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, as per GFS. The ECMWF is less aggressive
with this overrunning precipitation, waiting until later Tuesday
night and Wednesday when more ample returning moisture is in place
and a mid level wave rides through the flow.
Otherwise expect temperatures generally in the 70s most of the week,
but we could be a bit warmer Thursday if ECMWF scenario plays out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
Scattered thunderstorms are possible later this evening as well as
again on Saturday afternoon. In between, there are hints that some
lower cigs will move into the area toward sunrise so did hint a
bit at this. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Kern
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
254 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon and evening through
Monday. High pressure re-intensifies Tuesday through Thursday
bringing hot temperatures and low humidity. Breezy winds are
possible late next week as low pressure moves into the region.
Rivers and streams will remain full with fast moving cold water
through next week. Minor flooding is possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM (through Saturday Night)...
* No substantive changes made as latest guidance is similar to
ongoing forecast.
* Chances for t-storms continue through this evening and again
Saturday afternoon-evening. Airmass today is comparatively more
stable vs Thursday therefore expecting mainly isolated coverage.
Latest HRRR and SPC HREF guidance paints best chances today
along the Sierra from around Tahoe/Truckee southward to near
Mammoth. NW steering flow aloft would push cells into far W
Nevada valleys mainly south of Reno.
* For Saturday slight cooling aloft with passing shortwave
coupled with slight increase in precipitable water helps
increase instability some. This will lead to a broader risk of
t-storms. W flow aloft would allow terrain driven storms to
potentially impact W Nevada cities late afternoon into the
evening. With that said, best risks for t-storms based on HREF
guidance are over the typical areas of Mono, Alpine, Mineral,
and S Lyon Counties.
-Chris
.LONG TERM...Sunday onward.
No major changes to the long term forecast today. Weak trough
over the region will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday, and to a lesser extent Monday. Thunderstorms will
be confined mostly to the Sierra with a few storms possible in
extreme western Nevada from about the Pine Nut Mountains to around
Hawthorne.
Ridge of high pressure strengthens off the west coast going into
next week. Although the ridge axis remains well offshore, this
will bring even warmer temperatures to the region, with
temperature around +10 degrees above normal. The warmest days are
expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday when daytime highs in the
valleys will likely reach well into the mid 90s.
By the end of next week, ensemble models are in good agreement of
another trough deepening over the Great Basin. This should help
bring temperatures back down to around average for this time of
year. As the trough approaches Nevada around the end of the week,
we can also expect a day or two of breezy afternoon winds. -Zach
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
the area, but coverage will be more isolated than what occurred
yesterday.
All terminals have at least a chance to see a storm or two,
especially in the Sierra. However, pinpointing timing and an exact
location is not possible at this time. Nevertheless, any terminal
that does happen to be near or under a cell should expect gusty,
erratic winds, brief heavy rainfall, and small hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and generally light winds will prevail, with a few
gusts in W Nevada reaching 20kts. Storm chances and fairly light
westerly winds will continue for the next several days. Cassie
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Clusters of strong/severe storms ongoing across western KS will
continue to propagate east overnight, with some tendency to build
on the southern flank noted in recent radar trends. CAM solutions
remain fairly consistent in these storms moving into parts of
northeast OK between 06-09z, with forecast instability and low
level jet maintaining at least a limited severe threat perhaps as
far east as US 75. The above mentioned scenario is covered well
by the going forecast and will not issue an update this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Latest model guidance / CAM solutions indicate the potential for
MCS, currently forming over western Kansas, to move into northeast
Oklahoma after midnight. Highest thunderstorm chances expected at
BVO and to a lesser extent TUL/RVS. Otherwise, gusty south winds
will persist into the day Saturday with VFR conditions expected.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Gusty southerly winds remained common this afternoon across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. These winds were
transporting low level moisture back into the region with upper 60
to 70 degree dewpoints now being observed across Southeast
Oklahoma. Southerly flow will continue overnight and help to keep
overnight lows in the upper 60s/low 70s for most locations across
the CWA.
Also overnight tonight...ongoing convection across Eastern
Colorado is forecast to spread eastward and develop into another
MCS within the strengthening low level jet. This cluster of storms
looks to push east southeast this evening and could reach
Northeast Oklahoma after midnight tonight. Thus...will continue
shower and thunderstorm chances across Northeast Oklahoma into
far Northwest Arkansas...with the greater potential along the
Oklahoma Kansas border. There remains a potential for some pockets
of strong to near marginally severe wind gusts as the MCS moves
into the CWA...with the latest HRRR indicating stronger winds
along the leading edge across parts of Northeast Oklahoma.
During the day Saturday...gusty southerly winds lifting moisture
into the region are expected to continue ahead of a low pressure
system currently dropping southeast into the Desert Southwest.
These conditions will aid in afternoon temperatures warming into
the mid 80s/near 90 degrees with heat index values in the low/mid
90s across much of the CWA.
The wave out west is forecast to lift northeast into the Oklahoma
Texas Panhandles by Saturday evening with a surface frontal
boundary stalling just northwest of the CWA. This will allow for
the warm sector to set up across the region and remain over the
CWA with low level moisture vectors pumping moisture into the
region. This is not forecast to shut off until the slow moving low
finally exits the region Monday night/Tuesday. In
response...thunderstorm chances will become possible Saturday
night...increase Sunday/Sunday night and continue into Tuesday
before the wave exits. Increasing instability will help to create
at least limited severe weather potentials each day through Monday
with Sunday afternoon/evening looking to be the greater severe
potential time frame...with large hail and damaging winds being
the main threats.
Also...with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
forecast...periods of heavy rainfall will be possible across the
CWA through Monday. Uncertainty remains with the exact location
of where the heavy rainfall axis sets up...though widespread 2-4
inches could be possible. This will allow for flash flooding
concerns to return over parts of the CWA.
Precip chances taper off Tuesday as the wave gets a push eastward
from another low pressure system forecast to drop southeast
through the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thus...additional
thunderstorm chances become possible through mid week with the
potential for more heavy rainfall and also the possibility of
severe weather. Continue to monitor latest forecasts and updates
through the weekend as the rainfall amounts/locations as well as
severe weather potentials are refined with latest data.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 89 71 85 / 20 10 50 60
FSM 70 90 72 85 / 10 10 40 60
MLC 72 89 73 86 / 10 10 50 50
BVO 69 88 69 85 / 40 10 50 60
FYV 68 85 69 80 / 20 20 50 60
BYV 68 84 69 83 / 20 20 40 60
MKO 71 88 71 83 / 10 10 50 60
MIO 69 85 69 83 / 40 20 50 60
F10 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 50 50
HHW 71 89 73 87 / 10 10 40 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14