Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/13/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1017 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will increase tonight ahead of low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic States. The low pressure system and its warm front will bring periods of rain and unseasonably cool temperatures on Thursday. As the coastal system moves away from eastern New England Thursday night, an upper level low will approach from the eastern Great Lakes Region with additional isolated to scattered showers for Friday. High pressure briefly ridges in from the south Friday night into Saturday with a period of mainly dry weather and a return to seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM EDT...CI/CS continue to advect in from the south as this will be the trend overnight as seen in our 00Z sounding. Regional radar mosaic shows the leading edge of rainfall near our Nations Capital and per HRRR, would arrive shortly after sunrise for our southern zones. Otherwise, no other changes to the forecast at this time. Prev Disc...High pressure continues to move off the southeast New England coast and Long Island corridor late this afternoon into tonight. Low pressure continues to develop over the lower Mid Atlantic States. A full-latitude longwave trough sets-up over and near the MS River Valley with a northern stream sfc cyclone moving into the Great Lakes Region. Along the southeast periphery the mid and upper trough, the coastal wave lifts north/northeast tonight. In the mid and upper level diffluent region, mid and high clouds will increase and thicken and lower overnight. The column will start out dry, but the isentropic lift will begin to increase ahead of the coastal wave, as it moves from the Mid Atlantic Region towards the Delmarva Corridor. The FV3 model has the wave furthest east with 12Z NAM/ECMWF and several Ensemble members further west. We are going with a track tucked slightly closer to the coast. The latest 3-km NAM and HRRR indicate some light rain spreads north/northeast into the southeast Catskills/Mid Hudson Valley/NW CT shortly before or just after sunrise. We have placed some chance PoPs here. Lows will be on the chilly side with upper 40s to lower 50s in the valley areas, and mainly 40s over the higher terrain primarily due to clearer skies and light to calm winds early on, and then wet bulbing towards daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow...It will be hard to believe it is June 13th tomorrow, and we will be dealing with an early spring type system with temps running 15 to 20 degrees or more cooler than normal. The forecast area will be located on the northwest quadrant of the coastal system with the best low-level jet staying southeast of the region, but still the latest 12Z GEFS indicate H850 -u /easterlies/ and +v-wind /southerlies/ anomalies briefly +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal where some Atlantic moisture will be tapped. The better low-level FGEN lies closer to the coast, with the NAM more so than the FV3 indicating a decent axis of mid- level FGEN in the H500-H700 layer moving across the eastern Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT in the late morning into the early afternoon. The latest 12Z HREFs also show the left front quadrant of a mid and upper jet moving towards the southeast extreme of the forecast. Good low-level forcing coupled with the upper dynamics support a 6-12 hr window of rainfall before a dry slot moves into the region between the upstream cyclone over the Great Lakes Region and the coastal low. We expect the stratiform rainfall with perhaps some convective elements closer to the coast to taper to scattered showers by the afternoon. Total rainfall will likely range from a quarter inch or so over the NW portion of the forecast area with three quarters of an inch closer to the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT. Some spotty higher amounts are possible south and east of the I-90 corridor. Max temps will be held down due to the rain cooled air and low-level N/NE to E boundary layer flow. Highs were shaded to the slightly warmer NAM or MET MOS values with upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations, and 50 over the higher terrain. Thu night....Anomalous low pressure system /995-1000 hPa/ will approach from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario will moves towards the region with the coastal wave departing. The latest 12Z GEFS indicates MSLP anomalies -1 to -3 STDEVs below normal. This is very atypical for mid-June. Some elevated instability is indicated on the latest FV3 and NAM with Showalter indices of 0C to -2C, so a few isolated thunderstorms are possible especially south and east of the Adirondacks prior to midnight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible overnight with patchy fog. Lows will be on the dank side with mid 40s to lower 50s once again. Friday...The stacked upper low will impact the region with isolated to scattered showers. They maybe a bit more numerous over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Lots of cold air aloft with the 12Z GEFS/NAEFS indicating H500 heights/temps 2 to 3 STDEVs lower or colder than normal. Any heating or sunshine will allow for pop-up or instability showers. The cyclonic vorticity advection will focus the showers, and the better forcing looks to be over the northern portion of the forecast area as the core of the upper low wobbles along southern Quebec. It will not likely be wet all day everywhere and the highest PoPs were utilized north and west of the Tri cities with lower values south and east. Temps will still run below normal by at least 10 degrees with mid 50s to mid 60s over the majority of the area and it will be breezy with west to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with some gusts around 30-35 mph. Fri night...A clearing trend is expected with the showers dissipating with the loss of the diurnal heating and the upper low moving away. Some ridging will build in from near the Carolinas. Diminishing winds are expected with some high clouds moving in with heights rising aloft ahead of a weak warm front near the eastern Great Lakes Region. Lows will still be on the cool side with mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The area will remain under the influence of zonal flow as disturbances embedded in the northern stream provide chances for precipitation throughout the long term period, with temperatures near seasonable levels. Partly sunny skies with dry and seasonable conditions will be in place to start the period as high pressure slides by to the south. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. A low pressure system passes by well to our north on Sunday, with a cold front extending through our forecast area. This front gets strung out as it passes through on Sunday but will provide chances for rainfall from early morning into the overnight period. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours. Monday may be dry but global models are indicating that the cold front gets hung up somewhere across central and eastern New York. This would result in continued shower chances Monday into Tuesday as another piece of upper level energy traverses the region. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s each day and cool off into the 50s to low 60s each night. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions through the evening and most of the overnight period as canopy of CI/CS clouds thicken and slowly lower. Eventually, that lowering will lead toward MVFR conditions toward sunrise from south to north with periods of showers/rain to advect into the region. Some IFR conditions at KPOU-KPSF where heavier rainfall could occur. Winds will be south to southeast and decrease to less than 5 KT tonight, although may remain slightly elevated at KALB. On Thursday, southeast winds will gradually back into the east to northeast by midday and increase to 8-12 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Clouds will increase tonight ahead of low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic States. The low pressure system will bring periods of rain and unseasonably cool temperatures on Thursday. As the coastal system moves away from eastern New England Thursday night, an upper level low will approach from the eastern Great Lakes Region with additional isolated to scattered showers for Friday. High pressure briefly ridges in from the south Friday night into Saturday with a period of dry weather. The relative humidity values will increase to 80 to 100 percent tonight, and they will remain high in the moist air mass Thursday afternoon in the 55 to 85 percent range. The max RH values Friday morning will close to 100 percent with patchy fog. The winds will be southeast at 10 mph or less tonight. The winds will increase from the north or northeast to the east at 5 to 15 mph Thursday afternoon with some gusts 20 to 25 mph. The winds will shift to the south to southeast at 10 mph or less Thursday night. A widespread soaking rainfall is expected on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... A coastal low pressure system will approach from the south and bring a widespread soaking rainfall to the Hydro Service Area on Thursday. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from around a quarter to a third of an inch north of the Capital Region, with around a half to three quarters of an inch south. This amount of rainfall will cause just some limited minor rises on area rivers and streams. Rainfall rates will be light to occasionally moderate with this system, but generally under a quarter of an inch in an hour at best. The rain will become more showery Thursday night through Friday as an upper level low moves eastward across the region. A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday night. Additional rainfall from the upper low looks to be light with a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. More unsettled weather is expected from Saturday night through early next week, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of our region, potentially shifting north and south during this time. Thunderstorms will also be possible as humidity levels increase. However, the amount of rainfall and location of the heavier bouts of rain is still very uncertain and chaotic in the guidance. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JLV AVIATION...KL/BGM FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...JPV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite imagery revealed an expanding fair weather cumulus field across Kansas as of midday. A pleasant afternoon with suppressed dewpoints and a gradually diminishing north wind. The wind is forecast to become light and variable by evening, as a weak surface high pressure ridge builds into Kansas. After below normal highs in the 70s, temperatures will fall quickly this evening with a clear sky, light winds, and relatively dry air. Light and variable winds this evening will trend light south overnight. Pronounced warm air advection will spread a mid level overcast over SW Kansas near 10k ft AGL after midnight. Model guidance has backed off on generating elevated convection in this warm air advection regime, and purposely limited pop grids to slight chance/isolated category (<25%). Kept these across the SW zones where HRRR and other models still hint at development. Elevated CAPE is expected to remain below 1000 J/kg, with any convection sub-severe. Despite the clouds and light south winds, temperatures will still fall well back into the 50s tonight. Thursday will be windy, between departing high pressure in the Mississippi valley, and lee troughing along the Front Range. 12z NAM shows 10-11 mb of mslp gradient across the CWA Thursday, which will support south wind gusts of 35-40 mph. Moisture and instability will increase with time Thursday, with models showing consistency developing a CAPE axis of 2000-3000 J/kg near the CO/KS border by evening. Extended HRRR and 12z NAM both show convective development in this region by late afternoon, aligning with the 5% wind/hail probabilities from SPC. A strong to severe storm is most likely west of US 83 Thursday evening, with much more limited instability east of US 83. Various models have shown great consistency and agreement with convective development near/west of Elkhart by 7 pm, with subsequent MCS propagation SE into the panhandles. The new and improved 12z GFS-FV3 continues to show this as well, and am confident the most robust convection late Thursday will be in the Texas panhandle. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Thunderstorm chances are expected every day throughout this long term forecast period. Again, this is not to say it will rain for six days. Rather, periods of occasional showers and thunderstorms will occur as various impulses or disturbances interact with a persistently moist and unstable airmass. Again with this forecast, just broadbrushed chance/scattered category pops in the grids for each day. Details on placement, coverage, and severity will change as the forecast time range decreases. Much warmer temperatures are expected on Friday, in response to flow aloft backing to zonal/westerly, and encouraging a stronger lee trough/dryline. Models crank 850 mb temperatures to the mid 20s C, supporting upper 80s, with lower 90s across the western zones. Dodge City has only reached 90 once so far in 2019 (April 21). We will get close Friday, but green vegetation, boundary layer moisture, and lack of downslope will most likely prevent it. Models improve moisture quality and instability strongly Friday, with CAPE to near 4000 J/kg. As such, strong to severe convection is probable Friday afternoon/evening if a triggering mechanism is successful in getting storms started. ECMWF consistently shows convective initiation in SW KS Friday PM. The new 12z FV3 GFS continues to suggest a strong MCS rolling across the northern zones Friday evening. Widespread marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities from SPC will most likely have to be upgraded and refined as we approach Friday. 12z NAM continues very strong instability Saturday PM, especially the SE zones, with CAPE again over 4000 J/kg. 12z ECMWF shows strong thunderstorms initiating over these SE zones late Saturday, with strong MCS generation along the OK/KS border Saturday evening. Will simply maintain chance pops, but a higher end severe/rainfall event is possible Saturday PM if shortwave timing with instability and time of day is favorable. Various chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday through Tuesday, with little variation in temperatures. Highs in the 80s, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Winds will diminish to less than 10 knots by the beginning of this forecast period at the terminals and then gradually switch to the south by Thursday morning. Mid level cloudiness is expected to spread into southwest Kansas later tonight and Thursday morning. There could be a few showers impacting the terminals during the morning but think chances are low enough to preclude mentioning in the terminals at this time. South winds will increase markedly on Thursday as a surface low pressure trough deepens over eastern Colorado. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 79 60 88 / 10 20 30 10 GCK 50 81 58 90 / 10 10 20 20 EHA 52 82 60 94 / 10 30 30 10 LBL 53 76 59 92 / 10 30 30 10 HYS 49 77 60 86 / 0 10 20 10 P28 51 78 61 87 / 0 10 30 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
909 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift across the area late tonight, bringing a good chance of rain, with isolated thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the coast Thursday night, followed by a drying trend and high pressure this weekend. A warming trend to above normal is expected Sunday and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 827 PM Wednesday...Mosaic radar animations this evening show cohesive moderate and heavy rainfall within the dynamics of an inverted surface trough along eastern SC, rising NNE. This to bring widespread light to moderate rain to the area this evening and overnight, with pockets of downpours, favored over the eastern 1/2 of NE SC and SE NC. Brief flooding may occur in isolated spots, or standing water on roadways following spotty intense rain-rates. The low end flood threat will dwindle after 3am. Latest HRRR shows enhanced 0-1 km helicity lifting over the area between 10pm and 1am, and this will be when the highest chance of a spawning mesocyclone, should convection be robust enough. No significant changes to the forecast at this time. As of 345 PM Wednesday...Latest sfc analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary just south of the area with 1013 mb low pressure centered over southern GA. The front will slide north tonight, as rain continues to overspread the area. For the most part have continued the trend on backing off on the total QPF/PoPs, as dry air (even some dewpoints in the 50s) north of the front has already delayed the onset of precip. Still expect up to one inch of rain tonight especially near coastal areas, but no flash flood watches are necessary. Included slight chance of thunder, with best chance of strong thunderstorms staying offshore where sfc-based instability is greatest. Low temps tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lwr 70s near the coast. Dry then by mid morning Thursday everywhere, continuing through the end of the near term period as high pressure builds in from the west. Only other item of note is a cold fropa Thursday night, with SW winds shifting to NW behind the front. High temps Thursday in the mid 80s, with low temps Thursday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday...The mid level pattern will consist of a very dry zonal flow basically through the period. At the surface this will lead to a nice late spring (officially) respite from the long streak of unsettled warm and humid conditions. High pressure will move from the Tennessee Valley to slowly offshore. No pops in the forecast with essentially a temperature forecast in play. Highs Friday will be in struggle to reach 80 degrees in most areas following lows a couple of degrees either side of 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday...The pattern will slowly shift from dry to very typical (warmer with higher humidity) in a typical kind of a way through the period. Bermuda High Pressure will build in through the period through basically all levels of the atmosphere. There will be little focusing mechanisms for convection other than the Piedmont Trough and sea breeze which are certainly enough. A shortwave ejecting from lower heights late in the period will give things a boost but confidence is low regarding timing and strength of this feature. Along with pops, temperatures will trend upward nearing climatological norms as well. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 0z...Current IFR ceilings inland and MVFR at coastal terminals expected to persist until morning, with possible fluctuations between categories as ceilings hover around 1000 ft. Elevated rain chances into the overnight hours as a front lifts north and surface low exits to the northeast. Winds will be pretty variable overnight as the low exits to the north, with current east-northeast winds becoming southwesterly by morning. Increased southwest winds tomorrow afternoon, sustained around 10-15kts and gusts to around 20kts. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR late Thursday through Monday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM Wednesday... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight. Wave heights are already running 1-2 ft higher than guidance, and expect seas up to 6 ft tonight. As for winds, as low pressure slides up a frontal boundary inland, SW flow will strengthen up to 15-25 kt. Isolated waterspouts are also possible tonight in any convection. Into Thursday, well after the low`s passage, SCA conditions may again materialize late as models tighten the pressure gradient ahead of a cold front with SW winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds then shift to NW behind the front Thursday night. Seas will respond and build back to the 3 to 6 ft range. Significant seas will mainly be driven by locally produced wind waves at 5 to 6 second periods depending on the fetch length associated with progged wind directions. Surface high pressure will move from basically overhead initially to the typical position of the Bermuda Ridge for most of the period. Essentially light and variable winds will acquire an onshore flow later Saturday. This flow will persist through the remainder of the period. I don`t really see anything in the forecast that would drive wind speeds above 10-15 knots. Significant seas will reside mainly in a 2-4 foot range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054. NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...MAS/MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front was roughly along a Pontiac to Taylorville line just before sunset. Latest radar returns show an enhanced line of heavier rain just ahead of the front, though lightning has been sparse. Already seeing a decent clearing trend across the southwest CWA behind the front, with diminishing convection along the Iowa/Illinois border. The front should be near the Indiana border by midnight. A little concerned that the HRRR may be a bit too robust with lingering showers in western Illinois past midnight, so will focus the PoP`s in the pre-midnight time frame there. Updated zones/grids have been sent for the latest rain and cloud trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Shortwave continued to move east over central IA to MO through the day, as seen in satellite imagery. Surface frontal boundary has fired during the past few hours and moving southeast into northwest IL, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on feature. GLM data shows some lightning in most significant storms. Expect this feature to continue to move into region into evening. SPC instability analysis showed some weak CAPE values developed west of the initial showers that moved into central IL, but ahead of the approaching front. As the evening progresses though, expect airmass to stabilize and mostly showers be the rule to move over region overnight with the slow moving shortwave. Gradient behind the front will tighten and so northwest winds to increase and be gusty tonight after frontal passage and winds should continue into through the day. Skies will clear by sunrise behind the front. High pressure in control on Thursday with conditions dry. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Return to southerly low level flow on Friday will bring enough moisture back into the area that the next chance of rain will be Friday night. Weak short wave from Rockies to reach central plains late Friday night, with the next cold front sagging through the Great Lakes into NE to IA to WI to MI area. With the front in the region and unstable air flowing back into the mid MS valley ahead of the short wave, expect scattered storms in the warm section Saturday, and especially Saturday night when the front reaches the central sections of IL. The front will remain in the region through Sunday and early the start of next week. This will keep the chance for periods of heavy rain from storms in the area through the early part of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Wind shift with the cold front roughly extends from KPIA-KPPQ at 23Z, and a trend to the northwest will occur at all TAF sites through the evening. Winds expected to pick up overnight and will be gusting 20-25 knots after 06Z. Bulk of the rain is now over eastern Illinois, with bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms pivoting southeast ahead of the front. Getting further into the evening, concern shifts toward lowering ceilings that are currently seen upstream over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. KPIA/KSPI may scatter out in time, as a larger area of clearing is seen west of the Mississippi River currently, but will continue with MVFR conditions elsewhere a good portion of the night. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Goetsch LONG TERM...Goetsch AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
934 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 .DISCUSSION... Unusually brisk SW flow through mid levels may push a shower or two well inland toward the I-4 corridor overnight. Mentionable rain chcs will re-develop overnight along and near the I-4 corridor with HRRR indicating thunder chcs materializing by mid-morning over the LAke county area as another round of storms are expected to develop during the late morning and spread toward the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. prev disc... Thursday...The low-level ridge axis will remain across south Florida while low pressure trough axis through the mid levels extends from the Great Lake region into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep the deep layer of southwesterly flow in place once again as well as deep moisture (1.8" to 2.0" of precipitable water). As a result, high coverage of showers and storm are expected again. Guidance is hinting at some showers and storms north/west of the I-4 corridor as early as the late morning hours, but primarily early to mid afternoon across this area and also southward into Osceola and Okeechobee counties as the west coast breeze convection moves across the peninsula. Propagation and steering flow will bring the convective activity toward the coast by mid to late afternoon (possibly the Volusia coast and northern Brevard by early afternoon) with showers and storms pushing offshore by early evening. Storms will be moving fairly quick for mid June with motion expected to be to the NE/ENE at around 25 mph. Gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible in stronger storms and also frequent lightning and torrential downpours. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected overnight with some isolated showers more notably as early as the pre-dawn hours near KLEE-KSFB. && .MARINE... Tonight-Thursday...South of southwesterly winds 10-12 kts will continue with seas of 2-3 ft. Another round of offshore-moving storms is expected Thursday afternoon, some of them could be strong once again. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/FJ