Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will cross the area tonight, proceeded and accompanied by showers with localized heavy rain. High pressure will build east across the area on Tuesday accompanied by clearing, breezy and mild weather. Wednesday will be a dry, sunny and seasonably warm day, then the next chance of rain will be Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west and south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1000 PM EDT...00Z local sounding reveals a fast reversal from the weekend as it appears we hit a new PWAT record for the 00Z/11th of 1.94". So while the atmosphere is quite moist, overall precip rates remain between one and two tenths of an inch per hour with slightly higher values into the Catskills. Main issue is lack of deeper instability, main upper jet dynamics are way displaced and a rather progressive nature of upstream trough. H2O vapor imagery is equally impressive with the subsidence upstream in the wake of the upper trough passage as evident from KDTX sounding. So main update was to remove thunder from the grids, enhance PoPs per regional radar and forecast trends per HRRR and temperatures per observations. Temperatures not changing too much overnight as well. Prev Disc... A large area of light to moderate overrunning rain will overspread eastern NY and western New England late this afternoon as high pressure retreats off the east coast and a cold front approaches from the west. Low-level south- southeasterly flow will increase to 30-35 kts this evening bringing a rapid increase in deep-layer moisture across the area with precipitable water values approaching 2.0 inches. These winds aloft could also translate into some gusty surface winds with speeds as high as 25 mph over favored locations along the west slopes of the Taconics and Greens. The rapid increase in moisture and isentropic lift will result in a first batch of rain moving across the area late this afternoon through early evening with rainfall amounts averaging between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. There could be a break in the steadier rain later this evening, then another area of showers associated with the cold front will move across the area after midnight. These showers may be a bit move convective than the first showers with instability mainly elevated above surface as Showalters fall to around -1. There should be no severe risk with these showers, however they will be associated with plenty of deep-layer moisture and deep warm cloud depths so localized heavy rain will be a possibility as the low-level southerly jet increases to around 40 kts shortly after midnight. Area rainfall will average around an inch for much of the area with the best chance for more than inch south and east of the Capital District, as well as over south facing slopes in the southern Adirondacks and southeast facing slopes in the eastern Catskills. Some localized areas could see as much as 2.0 inches given the unusually large precipitable water values expected with the passage of the front. Dry weather over the past few days has resulted in rather dry antecedent conditions and at this point it appears that any flood risk will be confined to localized poor drainage flooding, so no flood watch will be issued at this time. Will continue to mention localized heavy rain and minor poor drainage flooding concerns in the hazardous weather outlook. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers will be over early Tuesday morning as the front moves east of the area. High pressure will build across the area during the day with westerly breezes gusting to 20 to 25 mph and clearing. Temperatures will be a bit below normal for mid June with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be quiet and calm with high pressure moving east of the area. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be near normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The next chance of rain will be Thursday as an unseasonably strong mid-level trough approaches from the west. At the surface, low pressure will be deepening over the eastern Great lakes while a secondary area of low- pressure will form near the mid-Atlantic coast and will track northeast toward New England. This pattern is far more typical for early spring or late fall than early mid June and will likely result in a period of rain on Thursday with unseasonably cool temperatures. Have lowered temperatures a few degrees below model blends for Thursday afternoon with many places out of the Hudson Valley probably not getting out of the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term forecast period synoptic flow pattern will be dominated by anomalous long wave troughing over the eastern CONUS with multiple chances for shortwave troughs to interact and produce unsettled weather across eastern New York and western New England. An unseasonably deep upper trough and surface double barrel low will be lifting northeastward across the region as we begin the long term period Thursday night. Rain will linger across the region through the first half of Friday before mid level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic region and tries to dry conditions up. There are signals from the latest deterministic global model runs that keep rain along and north of I-90 for the entire day, but there has been little run-to-run consistency and there is a large amount of spread resolved in ensemble guidance on the eastern side of the mid level trough, suggesting low confidence in the placement and timing of the tangible weather at the surface. Have gone with slight chance to chance PoPs for the region on Friday as of now. There will be a strong pressure gradient in place with the low to the north and a high building in from the south, as well as good mixing potential into a strong low level jet, as suggested by forecast soundings, so conditions will likely be breezy with winds out of the west on Friday. This flow pattern combined with the favorable forecast soundings provided confidence to go above the blended guidance and increase wind speeds/gusts for the Friday afternoon time period. Beyond Friday, deterministic guidance differs greatly with respect to the general flow pattern and how that impacts low level features and our tangible weather. Some guidance continues to build the high pressure into the region for Saturday followed by multiple cold fronts progressing across the region throughout the weekend into next week, while other guidance resolves a quasi-stationary east-west oriented boundary across the region over which multiple pieces of short wave energy traverse throughout the weekend into early next week. Have kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast for Saturday due to the low confidence nature of the forecast, followed by chance PoPs for just about the entire region for the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures for the long term period will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year with high temps over the high terrain being stuck in the mid-to-upper 60s and the valley regions seeing highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s, with the high terrain dipping into the 40s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR to MVFR flight conditions expected through the early evening hours as periods of rain and showers impact the region. Aloft, strong wind magnitudes from the south-southeast warrant the continuation of LLWS in the TAFs. A period of IFR conditions are possible toward and after midnight with deeper moisture and showers, especially into KPSF. Cold front is expected to sweep across the region from west to east between 09-11Z. Winds will quickly shift from the southerly to westerly direction and increase in magnitudes. In fact, gusts occasionally over 20kts are expected through most of the day Tuesday as skies and visibility improve to VFR. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... West to northwest winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph on Tuesday... Showers will fall ahead of a frontal system tonight, with localized heavy rain possible. High pressure will build back in with breezy, drier and cooler conditions Tuesday. Dry and seasonably mild weather is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Relative humidity will increase to maximum values of around 90 to 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values will be around 40 to 55 percent Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 15 mph tonight with localized higher gusts especially along the west slopes of the Greens and Taconics. Winds on Tuesday will shift to the north- northwest behind a cold front, and will increase to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... An increasingly moist air mass will return tonight, with an upper level trough and a frontal boundary bringing a widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early morning hours Tuesday. Some deeper, tropical moisture from the Southeast CONUS will get drawn north into our region, as a very strong upper-level disturbance and cold front track through our region tonight into Tuesday morning. This is expected to result in isolated thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall with some urban and small stream flooding possible. Current forecast rainfall amounts are close to an inch across most of the hydro service area, with localized 2 inch amounts. At this time, it appears that the heaviest rains could produce localized minor flooding in poor drainage areas, but flooding will not be significant enough or widespread enough to warrant a watch at this time. Dry weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A coastal low may bring another widespread soaking rainfall to the region late Wednesday night through Thursday, which may cause some increased flows on the rivers. Their is still some uncertainty on the track of the wave and the amount of rainfall it will bring to the Hydro Service Area. Overall, the latest MMEFS guidance does not show any flooding on the main stem rivers at this time. Some isolated to scattered showers will bring light rainfall amounts on Friday before dry weather may briefly return on Saturday. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE/BGM SHORT TERM...MSE/JPV LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Minor adjustments were made with this update, again primarily to PoPs based on radar trends. In general convection is decreasing with the onset of boundary layer cooling and related reduction in already-weak MLCAPE, though upstream radar imagery suggests that isolated showers could continue moving into western ND overnight. Thus, while we foresee a relative lull in precipiation coverage before the next upstream shortwave trough moves into the area on Tuesday, we have chosen to keep relatively broad-brushed and low PoPs in place over western ND most of tonight in a collaborative move with NWS Glasgow. Otherwise, we did forego any thunderstorm mention the rest of the night based on recent trends and a lack of CAPE. UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Only minor changes were made with this update, and were focused on hourly PoP adjustments through the evening -- namely to increase coverage of isolated showers/storms over western ND based on radar trends through 2245 UTC, and to increase PoP values into the 30 to 50 percent range downstream of the more concentrated convective cluster centered on Kidder and Logan Counties as of this writing. Time-lagged HRRR guidance also captured these trends well and our hourly forecast fields were weighted toward it through 03 UTC. The environment is characterized by weak bouyancy -- though a shallow moist layer with dewpoints in the 40s F south central is yielding SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, MLCAPE, which may be more reflective of what updrafts have access to, is limited around 250 J/kg. This will continue to limit updraft intensity despite steep low- and midlevel lapse rates and modest flow aloft, which will nonetheless continue to support occasional small hail or gusts with stronger convective cores. Finally, lightning production has been limited in southwestern ND, and may continue to be, as objective analysis data suggests equilibrium levels are only near the -15 C altitude there, not quite cold enough for significant charge separation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be showers and thunderstorms This afternoon through Tuesday within a northwest flow pattern. Showers, and isolated thunder has developed over portions of the northwest and south central where daytime heating and low level moisture were maximized. Do expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to expand this afternoon. Northwest into central ND would be a favored area for some stronger cells this afternoon with around 1000 J/Kg MUCape and 35 knots of bulk shear. We could see some locally gusty winds and small hail with the stronger cells. Another wave moves through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, which will probably keep some isolated to scattered showers around through the night, but the threat for thunder should drop rather quickly by early to mid evening. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A shortwave moves through during the morning with another dropping south closer to eastern North Dakota, which will be accompanied by a surface cold front. The areal coverage of convection is expected to be more widespread than the last couple of days, thus pops are high chance into the likely category. The threat of severe weather is a bit higher than the last couple of days, over south central into southeast North Dakota. Although the instability is expected to be greater, bulk shear is rather weak. A few stronger to possibly severe storms can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, but overall, think the potential is pretty low. The SREF calibrated severe parameter is pretty low and has been trending lower the past couple of runs. Will separate out south central for increased severe potential compared to the rest of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 As this activity slides off to the east, surface high pressure will begin to build over North Dakota as northwest flow aloft persists Tuesday night through Thursday. Think that most areas will remain dry these two days, but at this time, don`t think you can completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm either day. Long range guidance is struggling to come to a consensus for Friday into the weekend. There are signs that a closed upper low will either park itself over Ontario, or even retrograde back farther to the west. It still appears there would be some sort of northwest flow over the area, with occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms. However uncertainty at this time is high. Temperatures appear to moderate some by the weekend, but it does not look as warm as previous forecast cycles suggested with highs now forecast to mainly be in the 70s Friday through Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 954 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 VFR conditions will generally prevail through the 00 UTC TAF cycle. Isolated showers remain possible overnight, but coverage will likely be limited between 06 and 12 UTC. Otherwise, on Tuesday a more widespread area of showers and storms will develop, especially by afternoon, with coverage highest central and south. Local MVFR conditions are not out of the question with the more intense cells after 18 UTC Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
858 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Another quiet evening across Northern Colorado with a mainly dry and stable airmass in place with no changes to evening forecast. Colorado remains under northwest flow while a upper trof will sweep across the northern plains later tonight and Tuesday. An associated cold front will push into northeast Colorado during the morning with increasing north to northeast low level flow developing. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon with possible isolated showers over the plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Quiet weather day across the area. Gusty south winds will linger through the afternoon hours across eastern Colorado around a surface high over the Southern Plains. Airmass is quite stable today, even cumulus clouds are having a hard time forming. Not surprising though, the 12Z sounding showed a strong cap near 600 mb. The HRRR shows a weak shower/storm forming over the Palmer Divide and then tracking southeast and clipping southern Lincoln county. Because of the cap and dry airmass, think it will be tough for convection to form. Will keep very low PoPs in the forecast for this. For the rest of the evening and tonight, expect skies to be mostly clear. It will be cool again with lows in the 40s across eastern Colorado. For Tuesday, a cold front will push south through the area 12-15Z. Gusty north winds will prevail behind the front across the plains. Highs will be cooler with readings in the lower to mid 70s over northeast Colorado. A short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft may trigger isolated convection Tuesday afternoon. Best chance for this looks to be over northern Colorado and across the eastern plains. Moisture is limited, so will keep PoPs in the 10 to 20 percent range. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Tuesday night through Wednesday, a large upper trough will be centered over the central U.S. with an upper level ridge of high pressure over the western states. Colorado will lie between these two systems under the influence a moderate northwesterly flow aloft. Models are showing a weak cool front moving across the northeastern plains Tuesday night which should result in another relatively cool June day on Wednesday. The atmosphere behind the front should generally be dry and stable. Therefore, only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected mainly over the higher terrain. On Thursday, the upper flow over Colorado becomes more westerly as the large upper trough moves into the eastern U.S. and a weak upper ridge of high pressure moves into western Colorado. This pattern should allow temperatures to warm to near normal values. There may be some return in low level moisture across the far northeast plains during the day with both the NAM and GFS showing capes over 1500 J/KG by afternoon. The instability combined with a weak shortwave could result in a few late afternoon and evening severe storms across far eastern sections of the CWA. Friday and Saturday look to be cooler and wetter across north central and northeastern Colorado as the weak upper level trough of low pressure, embedded upper level disturbances and associated weak frontal surges move across the state. GFS forecast soundings show limited CAPE and shear which could limit severe potential. However, can`t rule anything out especially for the middle of June. Models are also showing PW values gradually rising to over an inch across of the plains. Therefore, any storms that form will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. On Sunday, the upper trough moves into the Central Plains States, with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. Models show an increase in southeasterly surface flow across the plains resulting in higher dewpoints, CAPE and directional shear during the afternoon. If this verifies, could see a few severe severe storms during the afternoon and evening. With PW`s still at or above an inch, the storms will still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A similar pattern continues on Monday with continued active weather and below temperatures expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2019 VFR with varying amounts of mid and high level cloudiness expected through the period. Denver cyclone in place as winds have shifted northwest at BJC and just now at BJC. Weak cold front will shift winds northerly Tuesday morning and continue through the afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Kalina AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
650 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR will generally prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Convection will occasionally impact BRO/HRL/MFE also. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Mid-level high pressure centered over Deep South Texas will continue to gradually slide south and west, allowing for a couple weak shortwave impulses to move through the flow. This combining with weak surface boundaries and deep-layer moisture will lead to increasing rain chances this afternoon and through the short term period. Surface flow will continue to be light and out of the north with a weak cold front, which should help reinforce seabreeze potential and rain chances along the coast today and Tuesday. Convective-allowing models are going pretty high on coverage, particularly the HRRR for this afternoon and Tuesday morning, so may have to increase rain chances on the next update. For now, have maintained 40 to 50%, with a stronger impulse expected early Tuesday afternoon. With precipitable water values ranging from 2.00 to 2.25", any showers or storms have the potential to produce torrential rainfall rates of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour. This would lead to minor flooding of poor drainage and low-lying areas. Models indicate a slight lull in activity overnight tonight with another round of development along the coast Tuesday morning and spreading westward through the day. The main trough axis will move off the Texas coast overnight into Wednesday morning, which would potentially be another good shot of precipitation before heading into the long term. Increased rain chances and cloud cover through the period should keep temperatures down in the lower 90s for most areas. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): The big picture of the forecast hasn`t changed over the past couple of days...but the focus for precipitation is a bit more clear cut. The last of the fairly vigorous short waves diving down the back side of developing Mississippi Valley 500 mb trough slides through South Texas and the western Gulf on Wednesday, which should activate the continued moisture pool at least for the morning hours. GFS/ECMWF trends favor the short wave moving farther into the Gulf by evening, which should taper off/end precipitation. This should happen by afternoon...but due to uncertainty in timing at 48 to 60 hours elected to run a 12 hour precipitation forecast in case the situation slows a bit. Favored locations for the day will be the lower Valley where likely PoP (60 percent) was added, with isolated (20 percent) across the Rio Grande Plains. Rainfall totals and rates are always difficult...but could be locally big due to light winds/slow cell movement and any slight enhancement due to the sea breeze. So while QPF is generally on the light side (~0.25 inch or so), as we saw today, locally 2+ inches in stronger cells is never far away from reality...which can cause brief nuisance flooding but is still welcome in the long run as dryness from last weekend`s heat wave needs a break before what is expected at the end of the short term. Thereafter, the 500 mb ridge builds back east and the eastern edge reaches the classic "La Canicula" position (though weaker than what we just saw and what we will see in July) over Chihuahua to Coahuila by the weekend and into Monday. Eastward extension of the ridge into the central/eastern Gulf help strengthen surface high over the eastern Gulf a bit, while short wave energy passing through the southern/central Plains develops the quasi-permanent west Texas through Sierra Madre trough. This situation will both end precipitation and quickly return heat and higher heat index values beginning Friday and continuing through Sunday, with levels possibly approaching advisory (111) along and east of US 281/IH 69C as temperatures approach 100...likely reaching 100+ from McAllen through Starr/Zapata Saturday or Sunday through next Monday. Unlike last weekend, however, the "Valley Wind Machine" will pick up as well, with 20 to 25 mph and gusty winds in these same areas...a little lower along the coast...for the weekend. Building seas/swell/surf with a southeast component will kick up the south to north longshore which will make swimming difficult to dangerous for those who cool off in the water at the beach...something to keep in mind for the next weekend of heat relief. MARINE: A light surface gradient will maintain low seas and light winds outside of convection through the period. Deep-layer moisture combining with a couple upper-level disturbances will increase rain chances offshore, with a few storms capable of producing gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning. Wednesday through Saturday Night: Slight seas and light winds prevail early as pressure systems remain weak at the continue through early Friday. Conditions deteriorate fairly quick as the winds increase and long fetch does as well...with seas quickly increasing to 5 to 7+ feet Friday night through Saturday night in the Gulf. Mix-down of 30-35 knot low level winds should reach 20 knots sustained over the open Gulf overnight Friday and Saturday, with just a touch drop back Saturday as marine layer won`t do much to reduce speeds. Laguna winds will also threaten 20 knots and gusty, especially Saturday and Saturday evening. While winds are light Wednesday and perhaps into early Thursday, mariners will need to keep an eye on convection as the aforementioned short wave slides through the waters and keeps the threat of thunderstorms going. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
National Weather Service Burlington VT
959 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A moisture-laden frontal system approaching from the eastern Great Lakes will bring developing overcast skies and periods of moderate rainfall overnight. Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch up to an inch, with the higher amounts expected across south-central and eastern Vermont, and across the Adirondack high peaks. Gradual drying and developing partly sunny skies are expected by Tuesday afternoon, along with breezy conditions with west to northwesterly winds. High pressure will then return for Tuesday night with patchy fog, followed by dry and sunny conditions for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 955 PM EDT Monday...Forecast is playing out well. Light precipitation barely reaching the surface across the Champlain Valley, where deeper low-level moisture still has not quite worked its way into the forecast area. This should quickly change as lee side trough and cold front begin to interact over the next few hours. Thus, continued to spend time refining the PoPs. Wet bulb cooling from evaporative processes has brought temps down quickly across Northern New York, and have refined temps with latest hourly hi-res guidance and wet-bulb tools for when it occurs across Vermont. Previous discussion below. Have a great night. Previous Discussion... Finally seeing a breakdown of the mid-level ridging as upstream shortwave trough migrates ewd across the Great Lakes region. Meridional and increasingly cyclonic flow in advance of the trough and PW values near 1.8-1.9" from BUF southward into the upper Ohio valley, resulting in well-defined precipitation axes across central/sern NY at 18Z, and also across Lake Erie and ern Ohio very near the surface front position. Appears there will be sufficient forcing for increasing clouds and developing rain showers across St. Lawrence and Franklin counties by 21-22Z, with rather sharp moisture gradient and resulting moisture advection per 850mb RAP analyses. From the Champlain Valley ewd, appears most of the precipitation will hold off until around 00Z this evening. PoPs at 23Z range from 21% at MPV, to 24% at BTV, to 60% at SLK. As we head through the overnight hours, will see upstream surface cold front and best QG forcing moving from W-E across the North Country. Expecting some periods of moderate rainfall given axis of PW values between 1.8" and 1.9" translating ewd across the North Country in advance of the bndry. Consistent with previous runs, 12Z NWP modeling suite again not showing much in the way of instability (saturated, moist neutral profiles), so will continue to leave out any mention of thunderstorms with this system. Total rainfall amounts generally 0.5" to locally around 1" with highest totals likely with best moisture advection into the Adirondack high peaks and across south-central and eastern VT. Fortunately, the frontal zone is progressive enough that we will preclude any significant hydro threat; 6-hrly flash flood guidance is generally 2-2.5", so we should be well below that in terms of precipitation totals. Will see rain ending rather quickly 11-15Z Tuesday morning as front shifts ewd into NH. Gradual clearing and drying is expected through the day Tuesday. Gradient flow is moderately strong from the W-NW, so looking for winds 15-20 mph with some gusts 25-30 mph once sunny breaks develop around mid-day. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed for Lake Champlain for the late morning through afternoon hours on Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds in rapidly during Tuesday night, allowing winds to diminish quickly around sunset. With good radiational cooling conditions, appears favorable to reach crossover temperatures. Also, moist soil conditions from the rain early Tuesday will contribute to favorable conditions for nocturnal fog development during Tuesday night. Have included mention of patchy fog at this time for the favored valleys. In terms of temperatures, lows tonight mainly 57-63F across the Champlain Valley and central/ern VT, and in the 50s across nrn NY with earlier passage of cold front. Will see moderate CAA yield highs only in the 65-70F range for Tuesday afternoon, with dewpoints again falling into the 40s. Cool and tranquil for Tuesday night with lows 40-50F, coldest in Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom and within the normally colder spots in the northern Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday will be the nicest day of the upcoming week with weak ridging aloft and a surface high transiting the region. Subsidence associated with this feature will help keep skies mostly clear through the day on Wednesday with no chances for precipitation. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Wednesday afternoon as the next storm system begins to approach from the southwest but temperatures will easily warm into the low to mid 70s region wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Monday...The forecast gets a little tricky on Thursday as models still continue to struggle with the evolution of the next storm system. The NAM/ECMWF/BTV4 all are pointing at a weak surface low developing near Cape Cod on Thursday. The GFS and Canadian show more of a surface trough and no closed surface low. Regardless of the solution, however, it seems that the main axis of moisture will shift well east of the area with precipitable water values increasing to near an inch across the North Country. Models continue to hint at a nice negatively tilted trough swinging through on Thursday which supports good upper level dynamics. This should help to increase PoPs to the 70% to 90% range by Thursday afternoon. With the moisture axis well to the east, it looks like a widespread quarter to third of an inch of rainfall will be possible but higher amounts seem unlikely at this time due to the lack of instability and moisture. The front responsible for the rainfall will exit east on Friday morning but the surface low will lag behind. As the low track just north of the international border, some recycled maritime air will wrap around the low and bring additional showers to northern New York and northern Vermont. These showers should exit the region by late Friday afternoon. However, unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into next Monday as we remain in fast zonal flow with a strong upper level low to our north. Scattered showers will be possible through the weekend but it doesn`t look like any particular day will be any wetter than any other day. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Widespread light rain and MVFR conditions expected overnight as frontal system passes through the area. Initial VFR to lower to MVFR in the 02-06Z time frame as steadier rains arrive under light south to southeast flow generally less than 10 kts. Rains taper off west to east in the 09-14Z time frame as front clears east. Occnl IFR possible at KSLK during this period and possibly at KMSS/KMPV but confidence lower at these latter terminals. MVFR lifts to VFR at all terminals in the 14 to 18Z time frame with post-frontal winds shifting to west/northwesterly 8-14 kts and occasionally gusty to 20 kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1132 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving through now will clear the region shortly. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures will return for Tuesday and Wednesday. More wet weather will be possible later in the week, as another strong cold front moves across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Cold front through the wrn counties and wind gusting into the 20s there. Not much fanfare as these showers come through. Nobody has even picked up 0.5" of rain at the METARs to the west of I-99. Current fcst timing pretty good for ending of showers, perhaps just a hour or two too slow. But, some parallel banded showers dropping into the Laurels at this time. Prev... Lightning dropping off as the line of showers assocd with the cold front is nearing the CWA. Meager CAPE still avbl, and RAP still paints >1000J over SWrn PA. Gusts with the front seem to be under 30kts. The threat of flooding has diminished as well, with the showers moving steadily and few spots of >1" of precip over wrn PA. Refined timing of precip entry/exit using recent CAMs as they seem to have a decent handle on the current location and forward speed. Prev... A chilly damp day is in progress over the CWA with clouds and periods of light rain and drizzle. The guidance suggests we will maintain the warm season cool-air damming scenario into the evening hours, with temperatures likely holding fairly steady unto the cold front passes and we start to see cooler and drier air advect into the area after midnight. The various flavors of the HREF agree in marching an area of more organized showers across the forecast area between about 5PM and 2AM. Lifted indices are forecast to fall to below zero along and just ahead of the frontal trough, so there is the mention of a chance of thunder. However with the falling sun and the cool air damming, CAPE is forecast to dwindle rapidly as the convection enters the central counties. Regardless, there could be a few embedded heavier short-lived downpours with the fairly sharp frontal boundary. Cell movement will be rather fast and that combined with the recent extended stretch of dry weather will limit the threat of flash flooding. Showers will diminish from west to east during the middle of tonight as a cold front sweeps across central PA. Temps will dip to lows in the upper 40s across our far NW zones and ridgetops of the Laurels early Tuesday, and settle into the 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tuesday will be bright and breezy with very comfortable humidity. A gusty NW wind of 15-25mph will make it feel a tad chillier than the 5-10 deg below normal that it will end up being. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Winds will slacken Tuesday night and skies will clear out as the center of high pressure drifts overhead. A progressive upper pattern will bring several chances for showers/thunderstorms during the long term period. A front will brings a renewed chance for showers Thursday into Friday. At this point, dry weather pushes into the area next weekend. Another frontal system, a bit ill defined at this point will approach late in the weekend into next Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal boundary will cross the Susquehanna Valley during the early overnight hours, accompanied by rain showers. Behind the front, the showers will end and winds will shift to the west- northwest and become a bit gusty. The west-northwest flow should maintain low cigs over the western high terrain /KBFD and KJST/. A breezy west-northwest wind will continue into Tuesday. Reduced cigs across the west will improve during the morning hours, with VFR conds elsewhere. .Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Otherwise VFR. Wed night-Thu...AM rain/low cigs possible. PM showers/t-storms. Fri...Isolated showers possible over northern tier. Sat...Mainly VFR, with PM showers possible west. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Evanego
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
757 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 .UPDATE... Convection was able to fire , mainly due to outflow boundaries from Central Florida and a weak sea breeze boundary moving north from the southern tip of Florida. Storms are generally isolated at this time, except for near the Lake. However, these storms are beginning to move out of the area at this time. However, still can not rule out any other convective initiation this evening, at least for another couple of hours. Models indicate tonight convection should diminish, with a slight chance in the eastern interior for some showers through late this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 734 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019/ AVIATION... Scattered SHRA/TSRA should continue this evening, potentially impacting the eastern terminals with brief sub-VFR conditions. VCSH returns later tonight with VCTS possible by morning, but more likely during the afternoon. Light winds overnight with southerly flow developing tomorrow afternoon. Kept the eastern TAF sites mostly SSE, but a period of SSW is possible during the afternoon/evening as well. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... Today has been quieter than the last couple of days, mainly due to a debris cloud cover that has kept temperatures cooler than if there was more insolation. However, the cloud cover is thinning, and temperatures are climbing this afternoon, and may be enough to allow some initiation of convection over South Florida. The HRRR shows a few convective cells through the evening hours, but not very much coverage. Given this uncertainty, have kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tonight and tomorrow, models are indicating a drier air mass will move across the area, dropping PWATs to around 1.5 inches, maybe slightly lower. However, PWATs do seem to creep back up over the eastern half of the CWA. Given this, have kept chance PoPs and a chance of thunder for mainly tomorrow afternoon and evening. Convection may be aided by the 500mb trough finally progressing eastward as a very weak short wave, ahead of a more vigorous 500 mb trough digging over the central US. After tomorrow, PWATs climb back to around 2 inches each afternoon, along with temperatures in the 90s each day. Also, the 500mb trough is slow to progress across the eastern US, allowing for additional favorable dynamics for the latter half of the week. Models indicate a surface low developing, with a cold front moving further south than previously showing in the models, but still stalls over Central Florida. This would provide even more instability, and if the front get closer, it will just increase chances of showers and storms. By the weekend, high pressure builds well to the north, bringing the easterly flow back to South Florida for the weekend. This will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to dominate. This means convective initialization will probably occur along the Atlantic coast, as the sea breeze develops, then progress to the interior and then to the Gulf coast. So, in summary, wet season is here, and daily showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. It will be more daily mesoscale features that will be the ultimate trigger for convection as well as where and when. MARINE... No significant marine concerns through the week, with seas generally running up to 2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the weekend, which may bring locally hazardous marine conditions. AVIATION... The short range models are still showing the development of SHRA and TS over the east coast TAF sites this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS will continue over the east coast taf sites through 00Z. The weather should then dry out tonight over the east coast taf sites, with VCSH after 06Z for KAPF TAF site. the ceiling and vis will remain in VFR condition, but could drop into MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of the showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 76 88 76 90 / 20 30 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 87 78 89 / 20 20 20 40 Miami 78 88 78 90 / 20 20 20 40 Naples 77 88 77 90 / 10 10 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && UPDATE...13 DISCUSSION...13 MARINE...13 AVIATION...34/SPM