Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/10/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 Line of convection expected to develop along/ahead of cold front, fueled partially by a clear slot where +500 J/kg of SBCAPE has developed, roughly north-south from western WI (through LSE) into eastern northeast IA in the next hour or two. RAP soundings point to very skinny CAPE - enough for some rumbles of thunder, but probably not much else. This activity looks to clear central WI by evening. Scattered showers behind this line, associated with parent upper level shortwave. CAMs don`t hang onto this activity very long into the evening - spotty at best. Monday, weak high pressure builds across the south while some hints of a ripple or two in the mid/upper levels moving across northern parts of the region. Much of the saturation clears tonight with the passage of the main shortwave trough, but some hints in a few of the models that there could be some RH to work with. Low/mid level lapse rates fairly hefty for Monday with some CAPE (although rather skinny) for any potential shower/storm to act on. Some hints in the CAMS models along with NAM/GFS that some shower/storms could spark, mostly north of I-94 and favored in the evening. Saturation a bit better in those areas. Given the forcing, at least some small pops are warranted across the north for now - but if better saturation can be found, the isolated pcpn threat could expand southward. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 With the passage of the upper level shortwave trough today, northwest flow looks to settle in for much of the new week. The result is a much cooler weather pattern compared to the past few days, and somewhat active. 1) Temperatures: say goodbye to the summery warmth of last Fri and Sat and hello to temps one might expect for spring. 850 mb temps will fall back into the single digits, with both the GFS and EC dropping in the coldest air on Thu (post a shortwave trough - NAEFS anomalies around -1 850mb temps). The EC suggests some shortwave ridging/zonal flow by the weekend with moderating temps, but the GFS hold firms to cool northwest conditions. Overall, highs will be in the 60s to 70s with 40s/50s for lows. 2) Pcpn chances: with northwest flow will come occasional shortwave troughs and accompanying shower/storm chances. Models currently favoring Tue night/Wed with a good shot for rain, sliding a shortwave trough across the northern plains and through the local area. Agreement a bit more sketchy after that. Severe threat looks low given the current wx setup, but there will be some instability and shear to play with from time to time, so a few storms remain possible - although likely leaning on a more shower dominant regime. The upcoming week will feel a lot more like the spring we missed out on, rather then the early part of summer. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 High pressure will build in from the west overnight behind a departing cold front pushing into eastern WI. The resultant pressure gradient is relaxing overhead, so gusty surface winds are subsiding across the area. While llws criteria won`t be met, it`s worth noting that NW winds will increase rapidly with height through the rest of tonight...from under 10 knots at the surface to around 25-35 kts between 1000-3000 ft AGL. As daytime mixing develops on Monday, NW surface winds will become gusty again by late morning through the afternoon with gusts approaching 25 kts. Winds diminish and back to the SW in the evening. Clearing skies the rest of tonight will give way to perhaps few to sct fair weather cumulus Monday afternoon. Some guidance hints at a weak disturbance bringing a few showers into the area Monday evening, but confidence in these impacting the TAF sites is rather low at this time. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rieck LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
943 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front lingering over the Carolinas will lift north tonight into Monday. Unsettled weather will continue through mid week with the possibility of localized flooding. May see a brief break, mainly inland, on Tuesday as cold front drops south. Drier high pressure will build in behind a second cold front late Thursday into Friday with a sunny and drier start to the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 945 PM Sunday...Expanding arc of showers and t-storms has pushed as far as east as Georgetown, Marion, and Dillon this evening. The line should slow its eastward progress and weaken over the next couple of hours. Although scattered showers can`t be ruled out across the interior portions of South Carolina after midnight, ongoing activity should the biggest event of the night here. Attention will then shift offshore where radar is already picking up showers 50-100 miles east of Charleston. The HRRR appears reasonable showing this activity intensifying as it streaks northward toward Cape Fear after midnight. Some of the recent HRRR runs indicate streaks of 2-3 inches of rain possible late tonight, although my forecast has areal averages closer to 1/3rd of an inch in the Southport/Wilmington area. I`ve bumped overnight PoPs up to 60-70 percent for Brunswick and New Hanover counties. No other significant changes have been made to the forecast. Discussion from 730 PM follows... Shower and thunderstorm activity has been a little less widespread today than yesterday, focused for the past several hours on a line from Conway and Marion north up through Fayetteville. A larger area of storms extending in an arc from Charleston through Columbia is moving northward and promises another rainy evening for the interior Pee Dee region of South Carolina. Along the coast skies are partly cloudy with very few showers noted at the current time. Deep southerly flow with precipitable water values hovering around two inches will continue overnight. Trying to time subtle upper level disturbances within the messy convective pattern across FL/GA/SC is difficult, but it appears a lull in convection may develop late this evening once the current wave of storms entering the Pee Dee region moves north. Then look for scattered showers and t-storms to redevelop along the coast. Forecast PoPs range from 80 percent (mainly this evening) for the Pee Dee to around 50 percent along the coast (mainly after midnight). No significant changes have been made to forecast winds or temperatures. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Main concern through Monday night includes slow moving thunder showers that could bring potential for localized flooding. Latest upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system over the southeast with plenty of moisture rotating into the Cape Fear region. Latest model profiles show a very moist atmosphere along a stationary front portioned through the coastal plain region, which will bring chances for rainfall today through Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with a few lightning strikes and a remote chance for a strong wind gust at times, but main concern with the abundant moisture and little to no wind aloft is slow moving heavy rain producing storms. Storm motions are a bit faster based on radar observations today, but minor flooding is possible, especially for low lying streams or poor drainage areas in Wilmington and surrounding communities. Latest model projections depict a break in the rain action this afternoon into the early evening before chances again late tonight into overnight. Additional chances for widespread rainfall Monday late morning into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A cold front will drop south and east on Tues but will get hung up near or just south of area as wave of low pressure develops along it. The big question is, how far south will the front make it before stalling. GFS and NAM are most aggressive with southern push of front with about a 10 degree drop in dewpoint temps as far south as Myrtle Beach. ECMWF shows drying, but more in the way of a 5 degree drop in dewpoints. Either way, expect drier air to make it into the area with decreasing chc of rain, especially inland toward I-95 corridor. FLO and LBT sounding and moisture profiles just show some lingering moisture between 4 and 7 k ft but overall expect some sunshine through Tues aftn inland. As you head closer to the coast, especially down toward the Grand Strand area, expect greater amount of clouds and potential for some pcp. Temps should be right near 80 for highs on Tues. This will be shortlived as moisture deepens through the column Tues night as low pressure rides up the Southeast coast. Expect clouds to spread back north and increasing chc of showers and thunderstorms heading into Wed. Low temps Tues night will range from near 70 along the SC coast to low 60s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Weak wave of low pressure will track up along lingering front located along the Southeast coast on Wed, as mid to upper trough reaching down from the Upper Great Lakes helps guide it and pushes system off shore by Thurs. With relatively cooler and drier high pressure inland and front/trough along the coast, it resembles more of wedge-like pattern. Therefore, expect best chc of thunderstorms over the coastal plain and off shore on Wed, where pcp water values will still be up near 2 inches. As the mid to upper trough moves farther east, it will push another cold front through Thurs night. Some lingering moisture ahead of this front will maintain a chc of pcp, but a deeper westerly flow will develop veering around to the N-NW by Thurs night as front crosses the area. Dry high pressure will build down behind this front Thurs night into Fri finally bringing a change of air mass and return of sunshine to the Coastal Carolinas. Aside from an isolated shwr or two, expect a basically rain free period with temps running near or below normal for Fri and Sat. High pressure will move off the coast Sat night into Sun with a return of shwrs/tstms Sun aftn and warmer and more humid weather. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 0z...More of the same this TAF period, with upper trough over the southeast and deep southerly flow across the area. A weak front that was across the area has moved off the the NW, with a cold front approaching from the west at end of TAF period. Mostly cloudy skies with predominantly MVFR ceilings overnight across the area, with brief VFR possible. Forecasting mostly VFR tomorrow, but could see a return to MVFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible overnight, with greater coverage in precipitation returning tomorrow afternoon. South winds continue to prevail, sustained around 10kts tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20kt possible at coastal sites. Extended Outlook...Scattered to numerous convection will become the mainstay thru early Thursday. Looking at MVFR/IFR conditions associated with the pcpn, cloudiness and occasionally night-time fog. Will see periodic VFR conditions outside of the pcpn. Conditions clear out with VFR late Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... As of 945 PM Sunday...Steady 15 knot winds continue across the waters this evening, and seas have continued to build. Latest buoy reports show 3.6 foot seas now occurring at the Frying Pan Shoals and CORMP Harbor buoy just south of Southport. I`ve increased forecast sea heights to 3-4 feet overnight mainly based on these current observations. An area of showers developing 50-100 miles east of Charleston is moving northward and should affect the Grand Strand and Cape Fear area coastal waters mainly after midnight. Discussion from 730 PM follows... Latest nearshore and buoy observations show south to southeast winds 12-16 knots across the coastal waters with gusts exceeding 20 kt at the CORMP nearshore Sunset Beach buoy. I`ve accordingly bumped up forecast wind speeds by around 5 knots through the evening hours. These winds appear to be gradient winds unaffected by convective outflow or any significant seabreeze circulation given the fairly even temperatures from land to sea currently. Seas at area buoys are around 3 feet with dominant period around 5 seconds. These wave heights are slightly higher than forecast nearshore, and since dominant periods are short it`s likely just due to winds. Currently there are no showers occurring across the coastal waters, however most models suggest scattered showers and a few t-storms will develop after midnight. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Main concern over the waters will be developing thunderstorms that could bring lightning, gusty shifting winds, and locally high seas. Otherwise, fair prevalent conditions outside of offshore storms are expected through Sunday as stationary front remains draped across the region. Expect wave heights between 2 and 3 feet through Monday with main direction from the south between 4 and 6 seconds and a swell from the southeast between 8 and 10 seconds. A front will reach down and stall either near or just south of local waters Tues into Tues night. This will shift winds around to the N-NE on Tues, reaching up to 10 to 20 kts lat Tues into Tues night. This will drive seas up to 3 to 5 ft. Weak wave of low pressure will develop along this lingering front and move up along the Southeast coast lifting off to the northeast by Thurs. This will bring winds around to the S on Wed and SW by Thurs as another cold front makes its way into the Carolinas. Gradient later Wed through Thu will tighten up as this cold front approaches. Seas dropping slightly on Wed will be back up to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs in S-SW push. High pressure will build down behind this cold front on Fri with winds lightening up as they veer around to N and then NE to E by Fri night as high pressure moves by to the north. Seas will drop down below 3 ft late Fri into Sat. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...TRA/MCK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...VAO
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 A cold front currently over northwest missouri will move southeast tonight through Missouri and Illinois. Isolated showers will continue to be possible along and ahead of the front this evening over much of the area and for a few hours after midnight in east central/southeast Missouri and southwest/south central Illinois. The RAP does have a fair amount of instability (1500+ J/Kg MUCAPE) so a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out either. Once the front moves through, rain chances should come to an end, and Monday continues to look relatively cool and dry with lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s and highs Monday in the mid 70s. Carney .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 Quiet weather continues on Tuesday under the influence of a large surface ridge which extends from central Texas northeast into the Great Lakes region. The ridge will move eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong short wave aloft dips into the Mississippi Valley. GFS and ECMF are in decent agreement with this wave and its surface reflection as it moves across the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. 850mb moisture convergence increases late Tuesday night ahead of the wave over northwest Missouri as the low level jet strengthens, and this area of moisture convergence translates east through Wednesday, and the models correspondingly kick out a few tenths of an inch of QPF. Therefore it looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the surface front on Wednesday with the greatest coverage closest to the best dynamic lift across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Current indications are that Thursday will be a dry day as the high pressure behind Wednesday`s system moves across the Mississippi Valley. However, northwest flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave will escort cooler air aloft into the area which will steepen mid level lapse rates...perhaps enough for afternoon showers to develop over central Missouri which will be furthest away from the center of the high at that time. Medium range guidance shows another wave diving into the northern Plains on Friday, and another reinforcing wave on Saturday. These waves push another cold front into the mid Mississippi Valley with corresponding chances for precipitation. There are timing and position differences between the GFS and ECMWF with respect to this cold front...but generally speaking late Friday night through Saturday night have the most potential for precipitation as the front moves slowly south through the area. There may be some lingering precip on Sunday as well, but current indications are that the front will have pushed south into the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures through the period look near normal to a few degrees below normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019 A cold front is entering the area and will push through the terminals this evening. An area of low VFR cigs upstream is expected to filter into the area behind the front. Have raised cigs at KCOU/KUIN as guidance has backed off suggesting MVFR cigs this evening. Otherwise, clouds should mostly clear out of the region by Mon morning. Winds will increase behind the front and remain strong with gusts around 20 kts thru Mon afternoon. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Guidance has backed off of MVFR cigs behind the front. However, with the low VFR cigs currently upstream of the area, will raise cigs into high MVFR and monitor trends through the evening. Believe that cigs may lower somewhat as cooling occurs. Otherwise, NW winds behind the front with gusts around 20 kts. Tilly && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 61 77 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 Quincy 58 76 55 78 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 57 76 53 79 / 20 0 0 0 Jefferson City 59 78 53 80 / 20 0 0 0 Salem 62 76 54 79 / 20 10 0 0 Farmington 60 76 52 79 / 20 5 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
738 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 423 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from north central Canada into the Plains resulting in sw flow through the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, southerly flow prevailed through Upper Michigan ahead of a cold front from nw Ontario into wrn WI. Weak to moderate 305k-315k isentropic lift ahead of a shrtwv that lifted north from the OH valley supported sct rain showers over central and easter Upper Michigan. Another band of showers extended from ne MN into wrn WI associated with 800-600 mb fgen behind the cold front. Even with MUCAPE values to around 500 J/Kg near KIWD, per RAP analysis over nw WI to near KIWD, so far no tsra were noted. Tonight, with continued moisture transport into eastern Upper Michigan boosting PWAT values above 1.75 inch and increasing 250-300 mb div, expect that the rain over the east will continue to expand and become heavier. Rain will also spread through western and central Upper Michigan as the fgen behind the front advances through the area. Some isold tsra may still be possible over the west early where clearing had boosted instability. Monday, the remaining fgen supported pcpn band will move continue to move through the eastern cwa during the morning. Otherwise, expect clearing from the west through the day with highs into the mid to upper 60s. Northwest winds will become gusty to 20-30 mph as mixing depths increse to around 6k ft. Dewpoints dropping into the mid 30s will also drop RH values to around 30 pct inland. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 The long-term period begins with the predominant mid-level short wave exiting the region to the east. Whereas previously it had looked like we would clear out quickly Monday evening, models now linger enough moisture back behind the main wave along with several much more subtle perturbations in the flow that it looks like Monday evening will stay partly to mostly cloudy, though we do still eventually clear by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. With that clearing, and with winds quickly diminishing after sunset, Tuesday morning looks to be seasonably chilly with morning lows in the 40s and perhaps even upper 30s in the normal cool spots. It does not look like it will be cold enough for frost, however. As high pressure passes by to the south, it still looks most of Tuesday will be sunny except for some afternoon fair weather cumulus. Still looking at fairly deep mixing up to about 750 mb and therefore a warm and dry day Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s. Some guidance is more aggressive than others in bringing rain in Tuesday afternoon already but given how dry the low levels look Tuesday, decided to carve POPs back a bit from the preferred model blend. This resulted in chance POPs for the far west and south- central, and only slight chance for the central and Keweenaw. For what it`s worth, the deterministic EC, which was one of the more aggressive models with rain chances Tuesday afternoon, came back in line/went drier with its 12z run. Though Tuesday looks dry, the same can`t be said for Tuesday night and Wednesday. As a deep short wave dives southeastward across the Northern Plains and then rounds the corner south of Lake Michigan, we`ll be dealing with a winter-like system Wednesday. It`ll feature a cohesive wave of stratiform precip transitioning to a narrower band as the mid-level fgen ramps up midday Wednesday. The amount of rain any given area will see will depend on the exact track and speed of the cyclone, which models still diverge on a bit. There`s still a pretty big gap between the GFS`s 995 mb low over the Mackinac Straits and the EC`s 1002 mb low near Toronto with each model`s 12z run. Regardless of the exact track, the central and eastern U.P. seem likely to get a soaking rain; it is how far west that rain sets up on Wednesday that remains a question. Wednesday also looks unpleasantly chilly given the rain and onshore flow, with MOS guidance capping highs in the mid 50s for most and raw guidance even cooler than that. Showers linger Thursday and Friday as a second upper-level low is progged to pivot around the main vort lobe down across the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. Unlike Wednesday, this won`t be a continuous soaking rain, but rather a couple of cool, cloudy days with frequent showers. Models begin to diverge by next weekend but still have a consensus for continued unsettled weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 731 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 Light showers this evening along and ahead of the passage of a cold front will lead to cigs at all terminals falling to MVFR this evening and perhaps to IFR at times during the night. Winds will also become gusty to around 20-25kt out of the nw after the front passes. Look for improvement to VFR late Monday morning as drier air works in behind the front. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 423 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 A cold front will cross Lake Superior tonight. In the wake of the front, nw winds to 15-25kt will occur for a time over western Lake Superior late aftn into tonight. Winds will be stronger over eastern Lake Superior with 20-30kt expected late tonight and Mon. Winds will diminsh to under 20kt Mon night/Tue. A low pres trof will then drop se across the Upper Lakes early Wed. Depending on the strength of the trof, another period of stronger nw winds to at least 15-25kt will be possible after it passes, especially over eastern Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JLB