Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
957 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stall across North Carolina through the
weekend before lifting north by Monday. Unsettled weather with
clouds, showers and thunderstorms is expected through the middle
of next week with the possibility of localized flooding. May see
a brief break on Tuesday as cold front drops south. Drier high
pressure will finally build in behind another cold front late
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...Shower activity has remained subdued
over the past three hours, mainly affecting the Georgetown,
Conway, and Carolina Beach areas. New convective developing is
ongoing north of Charleston ahead of the large line of storms
moving north from the Savannah River. Despite the later start, I
still feel confidence rain chances remain high for the overnight
period and I`ve made few changes to forecast PoPs after
midnight. Convective activity appears to be forward-propagating
which spells lesser opportunity for excessive rainfall amounts
to occur. Discussion from 730 PM follows...
A slow moving cold front is situated across central North
Carolina extending along a line from the northern Pamlico Sound
across Little Washington to just north of Kinston, Southern
Pines, Salisbury, to Hickory. An extremely moist and weakly
unstable airmass exists south of the front, perfect for
generating slow moving showers and storms with heavy rainfall.
RAP analysis soundings show over 2.0 inches of precipitable
water with warm-cloud depth near 14kft.
After a day of heavy rainfall that saw rainfall over 2 inches on
Topsail Island, 3 inches near Conway, and over 5 inches near
Little River, radar shows we`re in a relative lull currently.
More showers are developing in the Georgetown vicinity and
offshore, and radar loops show another impressive convective
band organizing along the Savannah River that is moving
northward. I`m maintaining high Pops around 70 percent
overnight. Rainfall should average an additional 1/3rd inch
through daybreak although with convection there will undoubtedly
be spots that pick up an additional 2 inches.
Other changes to the forecast include bumping temperatures up
slightly given the warm and humid onshore flow and dense clouds
expected to continue overnight. Discussion from 300 PM
follows...
Main concern through Sunday includes slow moving thunder
showers that could bring potential for flooding.
Latest upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper
level low pressure system over the southeast with plenty of moisture
rotating into the Cape Fear region. Latest model profiles show a
very moist atmosphere along a stationary front positioned
through the coastal plain region, which will bring chances for
rainfall today through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible with a few lightning strikes and gusty winds at times,
but main concern with the abundant moisture and little to no
wind aloft is slow moving heavy rain producing storms. Flooding
is possible, especially for low lying streams or poor drainage
areas in Wilmington and surrounding communities.
Latest model projections have scattered thunder showers moving
westward through the afternoon with a brief break for many locations
this evening. Another round of scattered rain likely to push into
the region Sunday morning through the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Lingering mid to upper trough located
down the East coast will get pushed east and south as another
trough extending down from the Upper Great Lakes marches
eastward. This will push a surface cold front east and south,
but this boundary may not make it past our local forecast area
before stalling over SC. As it looks now, it may end up stalling
right along the Southeast coast. It should nudge the deep plume
of moisture far enough south to give some relief to a portion
of our forecast area, especially heading toward the I-95
corridor where pcp water values will possibly drop down below an
inch. The GFS is the most aggressive with the southern push of
cold front and therefore not that confident as to how much drier
air will actually make it this far south.
Moisture will pool ahead of this front on Monday with pcp water
values continuing up over 2 inches. Decent shortwave energy
running up the east side of the trough will support good
coverage of convection just ahead and along this cold front Mon
aftn into the evening. Looks like line of thunderstorms should
develop Mon aftn with strong storms possible inland and most
probably will diminish in intensity as it reaches the coast
later Mon night. Best chance of convection on Tues should be
right along the coast where the boundary may linger.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Low pressure will develop along
lingering front located along the Southeast coast, as shortwave
digs down merging with lingering mid level trough. This low will
track northeast across the Eastern Carolinas on Wed and will
produce another active day with fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Pcp water values will be back up to 2 inches.
By Thursday, another front will follow behind this one pushing
east as the mid to upper trough broadens with best shortwave
energy lifting off to the north and pushing east over the
waters. Looks like drier high pressure will finally build into
the Carolinas late Thursday into Fri with a break in convection
for much of next weekend. Pcp water values will be down near an
inch on Fri and will rebound to more normal values for this time
of year, near 1.5 inches over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0z...A very cloudy and wet TAF period with a slow moving low
pressure system to our west and front draped across our area. Overcast
cirrus deck majority of TAF period with an intermittent lower cloud
deck around 5 kft, mostly associated with scattered showers.
Precipitation coverage should be limited for the next few hours before
picking up again overnight through tomorrow. Difficult to pin down
where and when rain/thunderstorms will occur, but have mention of
light showers at all terminals for most of forecast period. Steady
MVFR ceilings most likely to develop at LBT overnight into morning, but
brief/intermittent MVFR can`t be ruled out at other terminals given
ample moisture in the area. Expect reduced visibilities in heavy rain
areas. Winds from the west/southwest throughout the period.
Extended Outlook...Scattered to numerous convection will become the
mainstay thru the extended. Looking at MVFR/IFR conditions
associated with the pcpn, cloudiness and occasionally night-time
fog. Will see periodic VFR conditions outside of the pcpn.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 730 PM Saturday...A slow-moving cold front across central
North Carolina may settle a bit southward overnight but should
remain north of our coastal waters. East to southeast winds
10-15 kt should veer more southerly south of Cape Fear late
tonight. The bigger story should be waves of showers and
thunderstorms which are expected to redevelop across the area
tonight. Seas currently 2-3 feet should change little through
the night. Discussion from 300 PM follows...
Main concern offshore will be developing thunderstorms that
could bring lightning, gusty shifting winds, and locally high
seas. Otherwise, fair prevalent conditions outside of offshore
storms are expected through Sunday as stationary front remains
draped across the region. Expect wave heights between 2 and 3
feet through Sunday with main direction from the south between 4
and 6 seconds and a swell from the southeast between 8 and 10
seconds.
Southerly flow around 10 to 15 kts will continue across the
waters on Mon, but Tue night into Wed a front will reach down
and stall either near or just south of local waters. This will
shift winds around to the N-NE on Tues. May see winds pick up a
bit Tues into early Wed as low pressure develops along this
lingering front before lifting off to the NE late Wed into
Thurs. The onshore push and slight rise in winds will push seas
up from 2 to 4 ft on Mon and Tues up to 3 to 5 ft by Tues night
through Wed.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA/MCK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Rain chances increase tonight and continue through Monday with
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible. Cooler and
drier by Tuesday before rain chances return during the second
half of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Showers slowly begin to work their way into the southern zones this
evening as the high pressure that has been in place over the last
few days moves northeastward. Bulk of heavy rain should remain south
of our area until the overnight hours. Heavy rain at times on Sunday
with the approaching system from the south. Water vapor imagery this
afternoon showing moisture plume from both the Atlantic and the Gulf
of Mexico. PWATs around 1.5 inches which should make storms pretty
efficient for heavy rainfall.
Biggest uncertainty is the location of heavier rain bands as short
range guidance generally keeping heaviest rain axis along US 31.
However, compared to previous model runs heaviest rain axis is
slowly shifting eastward. Regardless of exact location for the
heaviest rain, widespread 0.5" to 0.75" total qpf through Monday
with locally heavier amounts possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Rain and thunderstorms still persisting through the day Monday
before upper level trough from the northwest kicks this system out
to the east. Minor flooding possible given recent precip over the
last few weeks. Behind the front late Monday, cooler and drier air
settles into the area on Tuesday. Another trough mid week develops
across the northern plains putting our area on the southern side of
the axis. This will result in more rain chances second half of next
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Upper low over the TN valley this evening will slowly drift north
into Ohio valley region by Sunday evening. Energy rotating around
this low with increasing moisture advection will lead to more shra
development overnight and especially on Sunday. Difficult to time
showers but latest HRRR indicates some rain into KFWA toward
sunrise and then into KSBN after 12z. Cigs expected to slowly fall
with MVFR likely Sunday. Some guidance suggest IFR possible but
little confidence in that category right now.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon for INZ003.
MI...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon for MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Lashley
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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low
over the Tennessee Valley with a trough extending south into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This low was south of a ridge of high
pressure which extended from the upper midwest to Hudson Bay in
Canada. Further west, a deep trough of low pressure extended from
northeastern Alberta, south into northern portions of Nevada and
Utah. Ht. falls of 50 meters were noted from Salt Lake City to
Riverton WY this morning. H5 temperatures in association with the
trough very very cold with readings around -25 from Washington state
east and southeast to Idaho and Montana. A nice 50 to 70 KT mid
level jet streak extended from Nevada into northern Utah and
northeast to Glasgow MT. At the surface, a strong cold front was
located roughly from Ainsworth to Ogallala as of 2 PM CDT. Showers
and thunderstorms have continued to develop well ahead of the front
across the northeastern forecast area this morning into the early
afternoon hours. So far as of 2 PM CDT, activity along and ahead of
the front has been quiet. Skies were mostly cloudy as of 2 PM CDT
and temperatures ranged from 61 at Gordon, to 85 at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
In the near term, the
main forecast challenges are precipitation chances tonight, then
temperatures for Sunday night. For tonight, based on the latest HRRR
and 4KM NAM solns, the cold front will be oriented from Naper, to
Arnold, to Hayes Center around 7 PM CDT. Thunderstorms will develop
and continue INVOF the front through mid evening as the front clears
the forecast area by 10 PM CDT. The severe threat will be limited
behind the front, however, the threat for thunderstorms will
continue through the late evening hours as mid level instability
continues across the eastern half of the forecast area. The threat
for showers will continue beyond this evening into Sunday morning as
the mid level trough of low pressure lifts into the Panhandle and
western Dakotas. By midday Sunday, good subsidence develops across
the forecast area in the wake of the exiting mid level trough. Dry
conditions are expected with highs forecast in the middle 60s. High
pressure will build into southeastern Colorado Sunday night. This
will lead to light westerly winds across the forecast area. This
typically is a good cool air drainage setup. With clear skies and
dry air in place, lows will fall quickly after sunset. There is some
differences in forecast lows noted with the latest 12z MET and MAV
guidance. The MAV guidance is running 2 to 5 degrees warmer
compared to the MET guidance. Given the wind setup Sunday night and
expected dry air in place, trended the forecast toward the cooler
MET guidance. This led to forecast lows ranging from the middle 30s
in the western Sandhills, to around 40 in the western forecast area
to the lower 40s in the east. ATTM, the coolest lows are 36 at
Antioch and 37 at Gordon with 39 at North Platte and 41 at
Valentine. The record lows Monday morning for North Platte and
Valentine are 38 and 37 respectively. As for frost potential, will
leave it out of this forecast package as my coolest low is 36 for
Antioch. If this trends lower, may need to insert frost in the
forecast and possibly issue a frost advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
High pressure will build east into Kansas. Southerly winds will
increase northwest of the high and in advance of an approaching
cold front. After highs in the 60s Sunday, highs will reach into
the 70s for Monday. This will be followed by a cold front and
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. Ridging will build into the western CONUS
midweek. Moisture will be limited Wednesday and Thursday and a dry
forecast will be continued. Highs Wednesday will be around 70
behind the exiting front, while highs in the upper 70s to near 80
are forecast for Thursday. The next threat for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive on Friday as the ridge across the CONUS
weakens and a more zonal pattern develops. Low level moisture will
return to the forecast area as well, lending support for
increased precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
The thunderstorm complex across scntl, swrn and ncntl Nebraska is
expected to move east of this region around 03z. The area of
thunderstorms across northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming is
expected to spread through swrn Nebraska 03z-09z tonight and ncntl
Nebraska 09z-15z Sunday morning. VFR is expected throughout wrn
and ncntl Nebraska 18z-00z Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
822 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-upper trough over sw
Canada and the Pacific NW/northern Rockies, a ridge extending from
the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay and a trough over eastern Canada and
New England. South of the ridge, a broad mid-level low was centered
over TN. At the sfc, high pressure ridging extends from southern
Quebec back thru the Great Lakes region while to the w, a cold front
associated with the western trough is over the eastern Dakotas/nw MN
where showers/t-storms are collocated with the front.
Main weather story for this afternoon has been the very warm and
very dry conditions under sunny skies. Very dry air mass sampled by
00z/12Z DTX soundings has advected nw into Upper MI today in the
circulation around 850-700mb high centered over northern Lake Huron.
Given high temps this afternoon in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints dropping down into the the upper 30s over the interior w
has resulted in min RHs at or blo 20 percent this afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts have been up around 20 mph, shy of red flag
warning criteria, but given the very warm and dry conditions a SPS
is still in effect into early evening for elevated fire danger today
across all of west and central Upper MI. Cooler conditions along the
east side of the Keweenaw and along Lake MI where temps have been in
the mid 60s to mid 70s has limited the wildfire threat somewhat over
these locations today.
Cold front currently over the eastern Dakotas will move across MN
tonight, but will remain too far w to bring us any pcpn concerns.
Meanwhile, energy from the southern mid-level low will begin to be
pulled north in response to the trough moving from the nw CONUS
toward the northern Plains, but any associated showers will not
advance far enough north to reach the U.P. tonight. Another dry,
mild night is expected tonight with only some increase in high
clouds. Low temps tonight should be fairly similar to last night
with readings generally in the 50s, except perhaps upper 40s for a
few locations near Lake Mi.
Showers from the TN mid-level low will lift up over central and
eastern Upper Mi Sunday afternoon. Some elevated instability of up
to 200 j/kg at nose of 35-40 kt low-level jet max could result in
isolated t-storms over the eastern counties. Some convection along
and behind cold front approaching from the northern Plains will
likely move into the far western U.P. late afternoon or toward
evening. Between these two areas of convection, much of west and
central Upper Mi could remain dry for a good portion of the day on
Sunday. Given increasing moisture, more clouds, lower max temps in
the 70s to lower 80s, and lighter winds, wildfires won`t be as much
of a concern on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019
The synoptic pattern Sunday evening will feature an upper-level long
wave trough over the Northern Plains and ridging downstream of it
over northern New England. At the surface, a cold front associated
with the aforementioned trough will be pushing across Upper Michigan
from west to east. As the upper level pattern amplifies Sunday
evening, deeper moisture will surge northward across the eastern
U.P. with both the NAM and GFS showing PW values in excess of 1.5",
and jet-level divergence will increase, supporting heavier showers.
Two caveats though: first, the southerly flow off of still-cool Lake
Michigan will keep instability effectively nil, and second, the
cold front is rather progressive, so for both of these reasons
prolonged heavy rain and flooding are not anticipated despite these
abnormally high moisture values.
Monday`s forecast hinges on how quickly that system gets out of
here. In the more progressive NAM and GFS, the parent short wave
moves overhead Monday morning followed by mid-level subsidence
causing cloud cover to decrease from west to east by during the day
and leading to a rather pleasant afternoon. The EC was trying to
hang precip back longer with its 00z run but came more into line
with the American models at 12z. Still, looks pretty wet Monday
morning over the east, but that rain will taper off in the
afternoon. Regardless of any precip, with cool air aloft (850 mb
temps only about 3-4 C) and a deepening low pressure system to the
NE, expect blustery NW winds on Monday, with gusts on land likely
greater than 20 mph, and perhaps approaching 30 mph if the quicker
models verify in giving us clear skies/surface heating to further
steepen the lapse rates.
Tuesday looks dry, sunny, and seasonably warm with highs in the 70s
all the way to the Superior shoreline as broad surface high pressure
passes by to our south and we find ourselves in warm WSW flow. With
deep mixing to perhaps 2.5 km, will have to keep an eye on fire wx,
albeit contingent on how wet fuels remain from the rain in the short
term. Relied on a blend of our local mixed Td tool and bias-
corrected MOS guidance for dew points on Tuesday which results in
Min RH as low as 25% over the interior west.
The next short wave dives down across the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday, and with an amplifying attendant surface low, will likely
see significant rain (0.5" or more) Wednesday. The trend with
today`s 12z guidance has been to amplify the system more than in
previous model runs, making Wednesday look like an all-day soaker.
With the pattern slowing down and multiple vort lobes rotating
around the main short wave Thursday into Friday, looks like we`ll
remain unsettled through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 819 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019
Under a very dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through early Sunday afternoon. There will be an
increase in mid-level clouds at KSAW later Sunday morning. Showers
associated with a low pressure system and front may reach KSAW and
KIWD in the afternoon. Upslope flow into KSAW and the proximity to
the greater low level moisture will be more likely to drop cigs into
the MVFR category by late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 239 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019
Winds across Lake Superior will mostly be under 20kt thru Sun.
However, high obs platforms over the e half of Lake Superior (like
Stannard Rock) will see some sse wind gusts into the 20-30kt range
today. A cold front will move across Lake Superior Sun and Sun
night. As the front continues eastward on Mon, a low pressure system
will lift n and ne along the front. As a result, may end up seeing
nw winds increase to 20-30kt on Mon over the e half of Lake
Superior. Winds will be lighter, mostly under 20kt over the w. Winds
will diminish blo 20 knots for Tue. A low pres trough will then drop
se across the Upper Lakes on Wed. Depending on the strength of the
trof, another period of stronger nw winds will be possible,
especially after it passes in the Wed night into Thu time frame.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Cold front sliding south across the Palmer Divide at mid-afternoon,
while low level moisture has mixed out ahead of the boundary,
leaving only a narrow ribbon of higher CAPE in place along the
Kansas border. Latest HRRR and most mesoscale models keep almost all
deep convection north and east of the area this evening, with
perhaps a slight chance for a weaker storm or two across nrn El Paso
county as post frontal air mass will be moderately unstable. Cold
front then quickly drops south through the plains overnight, with
increasing north winds along and east of the mountains, especially
after midnight. Could see some gusts toward 40 kts along the
Arkansas River as boundary accelerates and gradient tightens late.
In general, precip chances overnight look rather low across most of
the region, with perhaps a weak tsra possible near the KS border,
and some light shra over upslope favored areas along the Palmer
Divide, across the eastern mountains, and over the higher terrain
south of the Arkansas River. On Sunday, eastern mountains and plains
will stay mainly cloudy, with a 20f-30f drop in max temps versus
Saturday`s hot readings. Air mass looks fairly stable, with only
some weak instability developing by afternoon, mainly over the
eastern mountains. Will keep some low pops for tsra over the
mountains and a chance for a shower or two on the plains in place,
though odds for measurable precip look fairly low. Farther west,
front will have minor impact, with warm and dry air mass continuing
to aid in widespread snowmelt along the Continental Divide overnight
and through the day on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019
Models in decent agreement through much of the extended period.
There are differences in the early part in regards to storm
coverage between the NAM and GFS. Ensembles tend to support an
active weather pattern with several disturbances moving across the
Rockies. Ensemble spreads increase into the later half of the
week.
Sunday night and Monday...expect ongoing showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday evening across much of the region. The
primary focus should be over the Eastern Mountains, with more
isolated activity over the Plains. This activity should dissipate
by midnight. Overnight lows will be cool with generally 40s across
the region. The biggest discrepancies between the NAM and GFS
occur Monday and Monday evening. The GFS has much wetter
conditions than the almost dry NAM. The GFS has more scattered
showers over the mountain areas by the afternoon, which prevails
into the evening hours before dying off. For now trended with the
GFS, but this may be well overdone in regards to pops. Afternoon
highs on Monday will reach into the 70s across the region.
Tuesday...weak energy moving across the area on Tuesday afternoon
will likely lead to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the Eastern Mountains. Model guidance
is also suggesting isolated thunderstorms may be possible out near
the Kansas border during the evening hours. All activity should
dissipate with sunset. A cold front should drop south across the
Plains during the afternoon, however, highs will still manage to
reach into the 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday...isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast by the afternoon hours on Wednesday,
mainly over the Eastern Mountains. More isolated activity is
expected elsewhere over the mountains. The roller coaster of
temperatures will continue with 70s across the region on Wednesday
for highs. By Thursday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the region. Areas over Teller County and the
Southern Sangre de Cristo range have the greatest potential for
heavier showers and thunderstorms. Locations in and around the
Spring burn scar will need to be monitored for the potential for
flash flooding on Thursday afternoon and evening. Highs will once
again warm into the 80s across the region for Thursday afternoon.
Friday and Saturday...temperatures are expected to remain warm
with mid to upper 80s for highs. Friday once again has the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
region. This time the focus will be from the Central Mountains,
into the Palmer Divide region. Flash flooding on Waldo may be of
concern on Friday. On Saturday, another round of showers will
slide across the region on Saturday. Again the focus appears to be
the Central Mountains into the Palmer Divide. This is a long ways
out, but will need to be monitored.
A note about hydrologic conditions. After a couple of cooler days
early in the extended period, a continuation of warmer highs will
lead to more snowmelt over the mountains, especially the La
Garitas, the San Juans, into the San Luis Valley. Areas along the
Arkansas River including the Royal Gorge area are seeing high
flows as well. Even though flows may subside a briefly, rises are
expected again by early next week. Any additional precipitation
will only add to the runoff. We will continue to monitor flooding
conditions, but if you have reports of flooding, please contact
the NWS in Pueblo. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019
At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Gusty sw winds will subside this
evening and overnight. On Sunday, south winds will increase in the
afternoon with a few gusts to 20 kts after 18z-20z.
At KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Strong cold front will arrive around
00z, with a shift to north winds gusting to 30-40 kts through the
evening and overnight. Low chance of a vcsh from late tonight into
Sun morning behind the front, though threat for any vcts looks low.
Cigs will fall behind the front, though downsloping north winds
should keep any MVFR cigs mainly north of the terminal near the
Palmer Divide from 04z onward. On Sunday, VFR cigs with a very low
chance of a vcsh/vcts, as better odds for precip will be back over
the higher terrain.
At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Winds will switch to the north and
gust 30-40 kts after 02z as strong cold front passes. Low chance of
a vcsh from late tonight into Sun morning as a few sprinkles may
develop behind the front, better chances south over rising terrain
south of the Arkansas River. Cigs will fall behind the front as
well, though downsloping north winds should keep any MVFR cigs
mainly south of the terminal from 04z-06z onward. On Sunday, VFR
cigs with threat for shra mainly west of terminal closer to the
higher terrain.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for COZ065>068-070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front will remain stalled just south of the region
tonight. This front, in addition to an area of low pressure in the
upper levels of the atmosphere over the Mid Mississippi Valley will
be the focus for unsettled weather through the weekend. Another
stronger cold front will arrive from the west for early next week
bringing another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Saturday...
No changes to the flash flood watch. Main area of deep
convection and heavy rainfall rates is lined up across west-
central NC west-northwest into the TN Valley southwest of
Abingdon, VA. Heavier rains with embedded thunderstorms looks
likely mainly across the NC mountains/foothills through this
evening, with light to at times moderate showers further north
in the stable air.
High-res 18z NAM and latest HRRR have a decent handle showing
main area of concern over our southern area along/south of US 58
from Whitetop, VA east to about Stuart/Martinsville through the
night.
May need to lower pops further north as this area is in a lull
between vorts and lack of support in the lower levels, except
for some upslope winds.
Previous discussion from early this afternoon...
Flash flood watch remains in effect along the southern Blue Ridge
into Sunday.
The frontal boundary remains stalled to our south tonight into
Sunday. Several shortwaves will rotate around the upper trough into
Sunday. The 850 mb southeasterly flow will add orographic lift
enhancement to the rainfall along and east of the southern
Appalachians. With PWATS around 1.6 inch, storms will be efficient
rain producers. Heavier rain rates over a saturated ground (over 3
inches fell in some places see PNS) will result in potential flash
flooding especially in poor drainage areas and along creeks and
streams.
Bands of showers will develop within instability to the south and
lift north this evening into tonight as the upper low lifts by to
the west. With the wedge in place, uncertainty remains to how far
north heavier rainfall coverage can make it. The flood watch may be
expanded depending on the evolution of the storms, their position
and movement. Areas of fog and drizzle will form tonight into Sunday
morning. Shaped the pops towards a blend of HiresW East, HRRR
and NAMnest. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid
50s in the northern mountains to mid 60s in the piedmont.
A slow-evolving upper low over the Tennessee Valley will deamplify
and merge with the stronger northern branch of the jet on Sunday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
northward across our region. Model soundings show a number of
favorable parameters for heavy rainfall/localized downpours,
including rich moisture through a deep depth of atmosphere, warm
cloud depths between 11-12 kft and tall, skinny instability
profiles. High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the mid 60s in
the west to the upper 70s in the east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...
A piece of the upper low over the Tennessee Valley gets absorbed
and picked up in the northern stream trough with the long wave
trough crossing over the northeast by late Monday. This will keep
the region in a very moist air mass. Have continued to highlight
heavy rain and flooding potential ahead of the front through Monday
night.
Rain exits the foothills and piedmont by Tuesday evening, which is
somewhat faster than past few runs of the guidance. Behind the front
there will be significant change in air mass with surface dew points
crashing into the 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...
Deep upper trough developing Wednesday with a closed low forming
over the Great Lakes Thursday. This long wave trough moves off the
east coast on Saturday. At the surface high pressure will cover the
northeast United States Wednesday. Low pressure over the Gulf Coast
region moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic region by Thursday.
This will bring the chance of the rain back into the area and will
push a cold front off the east coast by Friday. Dry weather is
expected behind the front for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 723 PM EDT Saturday...
Southeast flow and a stalled boundary will keep showers/few
thunderstorms around through this period, with most of our area
remaining socked in with low ceilings and at times vsbys due to
fog and/or rain. The heavier showers through this evening into
overnight look to stay south of a BLF-DAN line.
Nonetheless, poor flying conditions are expected most of the
this period for our terminals.
At times, east-southeast winds may gust to 20kts or so.
Forecast confidence in the above aviation scenario is above
average.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
The front/baroclinic zone will linger near or just south of the
area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure aloft
through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result in an
extended period of rain/showers/thunderstorms through Monday.
Periods of fog/low clouds will also persist into early next
week. The unsettled weather will continue into Thursday with
scattered MVFR mainly diurnal storms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...
Pockets of heavier showers will continue across the region this
afternoon into Sunday. This may result in another 1 to 3 inches
of rain with the heavier rates likely along the Blue Ridge
mountains, espcly north of the VA/NC border. Flash flood watch
remains in effect through Sunday. With PWATS around 1.6 inches,
showers will be efficient rain producers with higher than
normal rain rates. Another cold front arrives on Monday with
the potential for another round of showers and storms including
higher rates as the cool wedge departs. Therefore additional
watches may be needed over the weekend with any river flooding
likely not occurring until early next week and mainly along the
Dan River at this point.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ014>017-022-
032-033-043.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ001>005-
018>020.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this
evening...mostly clear conditions with light variable winds were
common. Meanwhile...to the northwest...ongoing convection across
Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas was moving east southeast
with increasing cirrus clouds approaching Northeast Oklahoma.
Overnight tonight...ongoing convection is forecast to develop into
a MCS and push southeastward toward the CWA within a strengthening
low level jet. Latest CAM solutions continue to indicate a
weakening MCS possibly reaching the CWA just after 12z
Sunday...while the majority of the precip remains just west of
the CWA where the low level jet looks to be during the morning
hours Sunday. HRRR runs have shifted the precip back and forth
around the CWA border slightly the past few runs and will
thus...leave pops for after 12z and mainly west of Highway 75 in
Northeast Oklahoma after 12z Sunday.
Cloud cover should increase across much of the CWA overnight as
the MCS approaches which may hold temps up a degree or so compared
to this mornings lows. However...still think lows tonight in the
60s will be possible as dewpoints remain in the low/mid 60s. Thus
for the evening update...have adjusted the timing of incoming
cloud cover and added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoints
grids. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 87 61 79 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 67 90 66 81 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 65 88 65 77 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 62 85 58 78 / 10 10 20 0
FYV 60 84 61 76 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 61 86 60 78 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 65 87 62 78 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 62 86 59 77 / 0 10 10 0
F10 66 87 62 77 / 0 10 10 0
HHW 67 90 67 80 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20