Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
957 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will stall across North Carolina through the weekend before lifting north by Monday. Unsettled weather with clouds, showers and thunderstorms is expected through the middle of next week with the possibility of localized flooding. May see a brief break on Tuesday as cold front drops south. Drier high pressure will finally build in behind another cold front late Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Saturday...Shower activity has remained subdued over the past three hours, mainly affecting the Georgetown, Conway, and Carolina Beach areas. New convective developing is ongoing north of Charleston ahead of the large line of storms moving north from the Savannah River. Despite the later start, I still feel confidence rain chances remain high for the overnight period and I`ve made few changes to forecast PoPs after midnight. Convective activity appears to be forward-propagating which spells lesser opportunity for excessive rainfall amounts to occur. Discussion from 730 PM follows... A slow moving cold front is situated across central North Carolina extending along a line from the northern Pamlico Sound across Little Washington to just north of Kinston, Southern Pines, Salisbury, to Hickory. An extremely moist and weakly unstable airmass exists south of the front, perfect for generating slow moving showers and storms with heavy rainfall. RAP analysis soundings show over 2.0 inches of precipitable water with warm-cloud depth near 14kft. After a day of heavy rainfall that saw rainfall over 2 inches on Topsail Island, 3 inches near Conway, and over 5 inches near Little River, radar shows we`re in a relative lull currently. More showers are developing in the Georgetown vicinity and offshore, and radar loops show another impressive convective band organizing along the Savannah River that is moving northward. I`m maintaining high Pops around 70 percent overnight. Rainfall should average an additional 1/3rd inch through daybreak although with convection there will undoubtedly be spots that pick up an additional 2 inches. Other changes to the forecast include bumping temperatures up slightly given the warm and humid onshore flow and dense clouds expected to continue overnight. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Main concern through Sunday includes slow moving thunder showers that could bring potential for flooding. Latest upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system over the southeast with plenty of moisture rotating into the Cape Fear region. Latest model profiles show a very moist atmosphere along a stationary front positioned through the coastal plain region, which will bring chances for rainfall today through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with a few lightning strikes and gusty winds at times, but main concern with the abundant moisture and little to no wind aloft is slow moving heavy rain producing storms. Flooding is possible, especially for low lying streams or poor drainage areas in Wilmington and surrounding communities. Latest model projections have scattered thunder showers moving westward through the afternoon with a brief break for many locations this evening. Another round of scattered rain likely to push into the region Sunday morning through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Lingering mid to upper trough located down the East coast will get pushed east and south as another trough extending down from the Upper Great Lakes marches eastward. This will push a surface cold front east and south, but this boundary may not make it past our local forecast area before stalling over SC. As it looks now, it may end up stalling right along the Southeast coast. It should nudge the deep plume of moisture far enough south to give some relief to a portion of our forecast area, especially heading toward the I-95 corridor where pcp water values will possibly drop down below an inch. The GFS is the most aggressive with the southern push of cold front and therefore not that confident as to how much drier air will actually make it this far south. Moisture will pool ahead of this front on Monday with pcp water values continuing up over 2 inches. Decent shortwave energy running up the east side of the trough will support good coverage of convection just ahead and along this cold front Mon aftn into the evening. Looks like line of thunderstorms should develop Mon aftn with strong storms possible inland and most probably will diminish in intensity as it reaches the coast later Mon night. Best chance of convection on Tues should be right along the coast where the boundary may linger. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Low pressure will develop along lingering front located along the Southeast coast, as shortwave digs down merging with lingering mid level trough. This low will track northeast across the Eastern Carolinas on Wed and will produce another active day with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Pcp water values will be back up to 2 inches. By Thursday, another front will follow behind this one pushing east as the mid to upper trough broadens with best shortwave energy lifting off to the north and pushing east over the waters. Looks like drier high pressure will finally build into the Carolinas late Thursday into Fri with a break in convection for much of next weekend. Pcp water values will be down near an inch on Fri and will rebound to more normal values for this time of year, near 1.5 inches over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0z...A very cloudy and wet TAF period with a slow moving low pressure system to our west and front draped across our area. Overcast cirrus deck majority of TAF period with an intermittent lower cloud deck around 5 kft, mostly associated with scattered showers. Precipitation coverage should be limited for the next few hours before picking up again overnight through tomorrow. Difficult to pin down where and when rain/thunderstorms will occur, but have mention of light showers at all terminals for most of forecast period. Steady MVFR ceilings most likely to develop at LBT overnight into morning, but brief/intermittent MVFR can`t be ruled out at other terminals given ample moisture in the area. Expect reduced visibilities in heavy rain areas. Winds from the west/southwest throughout the period. Extended Outlook...Scattered to numerous convection will become the mainstay thru the extended. Looking at MVFR/IFR conditions associated with the pcpn, cloudiness and occasionally night-time fog. Will see periodic VFR conditions outside of the pcpn. && .MARINE... As of 730 PM Saturday...A slow-moving cold front across central North Carolina may settle a bit southward overnight but should remain north of our coastal waters. East to southeast winds 10-15 kt should veer more southerly south of Cape Fear late tonight. The bigger story should be waves of showers and thunderstorms which are expected to redevelop across the area tonight. Seas currently 2-3 feet should change little through the night. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Main concern offshore will be developing thunderstorms that could bring lightning, gusty shifting winds, and locally high seas. Otherwise, fair prevalent conditions outside of offshore storms are expected through Sunday as stationary front remains draped across the region. Expect wave heights between 2 and 3 feet through Sunday with main direction from the south between 4 and 6 seconds and a swell from the southeast between 8 and 10 seconds. Southerly flow around 10 to 15 kts will continue across the waters on Mon, but Tue night into Wed a front will reach down and stall either near or just south of local waters. This will shift winds around to the N-NE on Tues. May see winds pick up a bit Tues into early Wed as low pressure develops along this lingering front before lifting off to the NE late Wed into Thurs. The onshore push and slight rise in winds will push seas up from 2 to 4 ft on Mon and Tues up to 3 to 5 ft by Tues night through Wed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...TRA/MCK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...VAO MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Rain chances increase tonight and continue through Monday with thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible. Cooler and drier by Tuesday before rain chances return during the second half of the work week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Showers slowly begin to work their way into the southern zones this evening as the high pressure that has been in place over the last few days moves northeastward. Bulk of heavy rain should remain south of our area until the overnight hours. Heavy rain at times on Sunday with the approaching system from the south. Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing moisture plume from both the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs around 1.5 inches which should make storms pretty efficient for heavy rainfall. Biggest uncertainty is the location of heavier rain bands as short range guidance generally keeping heaviest rain axis along US 31. However, compared to previous model runs heaviest rain axis is slowly shifting eastward. Regardless of exact location for the heaviest rain, widespread 0.5" to 0.75" total qpf through Monday with locally heavier amounts possible. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Rain and thunderstorms still persisting through the day Monday before upper level trough from the northwest kicks this system out to the east. Minor flooding possible given recent precip over the last few weeks. Behind the front late Monday, cooler and drier air settles into the area on Tuesday. Another trough mid week develops across the northern plains putting our area on the southern side of the axis. This will result in more rain chances second half of next && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Upper low over the TN valley this evening will slowly drift north into Ohio valley region by Sunday evening. Energy rotating around this low with increasing moisture advection will lead to more shra development overnight and especially on Sunday. Difficult to time showers but latest HRRR indicates some rain into KFWA toward sunrise and then into KSBN after 12z. Cigs expected to slowly fall with MVFR likely Sunday. Some guidance suggest IFR possible but little confidence in that category right now. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for INZ003. MI...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lashley SHORT TERM...Heidelberger LONG TERM...Heidelberger AVIATION...Lashley Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low over the Tennessee Valley with a trough extending south into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low was south of a ridge of high pressure which extended from the upper midwest to Hudson Bay in Canada. Further west, a deep trough of low pressure extended from northeastern Alberta, south into northern portions of Nevada and Utah. Ht. falls of 50 meters were noted from Salt Lake City to Riverton WY this morning. H5 temperatures in association with the trough very very cold with readings around -25 from Washington state east and southeast to Idaho and Montana. A nice 50 to 70 KT mid level jet streak extended from Nevada into northern Utah and northeast to Glasgow MT. At the surface, a strong cold front was located roughly from Ainsworth to Ogallala as of 2 PM CDT. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop well ahead of the front across the northeastern forecast area this morning into the early afternoon hours. So far as of 2 PM CDT, activity along and ahead of the front has been quiet. Skies were mostly cloudy as of 2 PM CDT and temperatures ranged from 61 at Gordon, to 85 at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 In the near term, the main forecast challenges are precipitation chances tonight, then temperatures for Sunday night. For tonight, based on the latest HRRR and 4KM NAM solns, the cold front will be oriented from Naper, to Arnold, to Hayes Center around 7 PM CDT. Thunderstorms will develop and continue INVOF the front through mid evening as the front clears the forecast area by 10 PM CDT. The severe threat will be limited behind the front, however, the threat for thunderstorms will continue through the late evening hours as mid level instability continues across the eastern half of the forecast area. The threat for showers will continue beyond this evening into Sunday morning as the mid level trough of low pressure lifts into the Panhandle and western Dakotas. By midday Sunday, good subsidence develops across the forecast area in the wake of the exiting mid level trough. Dry conditions are expected with highs forecast in the middle 60s. High pressure will build into southeastern Colorado Sunday night. This will lead to light westerly winds across the forecast area. This typically is a good cool air drainage setup. With clear skies and dry air in place, lows will fall quickly after sunset. There is some differences in forecast lows noted with the latest 12z MET and MAV guidance. The MAV guidance is running 2 to 5 degrees warmer compared to the MET guidance. Given the wind setup Sunday night and expected dry air in place, trended the forecast toward the cooler MET guidance. This led to forecast lows ranging from the middle 30s in the western Sandhills, to around 40 in the western forecast area to the lower 40s in the east. ATTM, the coolest lows are 36 at Antioch and 37 at Gordon with 39 at North Platte and 41 at Valentine. The record lows Monday morning for North Platte and Valentine are 38 and 37 respectively. As for frost potential, will leave it out of this forecast package as my coolest low is 36 for Antioch. If this trends lower, may need to insert frost in the forecast and possibly issue a frost advisory. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 High pressure will build east into Kansas. Southerly winds will increase northwest of the high and in advance of an approaching cold front. After highs in the 60s Sunday, highs will reach into the 70s for Monday. This will be followed by a cold front and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Ridging will build into the western CONUS midweek. Moisture will be limited Wednesday and Thursday and a dry forecast will be continued. Highs Wednesday will be around 70 behind the exiting front, while highs in the upper 70s to near 80 are forecast for Thursday. The next threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Friday as the ridge across the CONUS weakens and a more zonal pattern develops. Low level moisture will return to the forecast area as well, lending support for increased precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 The thunderstorm complex across scntl, swrn and ncntl Nebraska is expected to move east of this region around 03z. The area of thunderstorms across northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming is expected to spread through swrn Nebraska 03z-09z tonight and ncntl Nebraska 09z-15z Sunday morning. VFR is expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska 18z-00z Sunday afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
822 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 239 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-upper trough over sw Canada and the Pacific NW/northern Rockies, a ridge extending from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay and a trough over eastern Canada and New England. South of the ridge, a broad mid-level low was centered over TN. At the sfc, high pressure ridging extends from southern Quebec back thru the Great Lakes region while to the w, a cold front associated with the western trough is over the eastern Dakotas/nw MN where showers/t-storms are collocated with the front. Main weather story for this afternoon has been the very warm and very dry conditions under sunny skies. Very dry air mass sampled by 00z/12Z DTX soundings has advected nw into Upper MI today in the circulation around 850-700mb high centered over northern Lake Huron. Given high temps this afternoon in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints dropping down into the the upper 30s over the interior w has resulted in min RHs at or blo 20 percent this afternoon. Southerly wind gusts have been up around 20 mph, shy of red flag warning criteria, but given the very warm and dry conditions a SPS is still in effect into early evening for elevated fire danger today across all of west and central Upper MI. Cooler conditions along the east side of the Keweenaw and along Lake MI where temps have been in the mid 60s to mid 70s has limited the wildfire threat somewhat over these locations today. Cold front currently over the eastern Dakotas will move across MN tonight, but will remain too far w to bring us any pcpn concerns. Meanwhile, energy from the southern mid-level low will begin to be pulled north in response to the trough moving from the nw CONUS toward the northern Plains, but any associated showers will not advance far enough north to reach the U.P. tonight. Another dry, mild night is expected tonight with only some increase in high clouds. Low temps tonight should be fairly similar to last night with readings generally in the 50s, except perhaps upper 40s for a few locations near Lake Mi. Showers from the TN mid-level low will lift up over central and eastern Upper Mi Sunday afternoon. Some elevated instability of up to 200 j/kg at nose of 35-40 kt low-level jet max could result in isolated t-storms over the eastern counties. Some convection along and behind cold front approaching from the northern Plains will likely move into the far western U.P. late afternoon or toward evening. Between these two areas of convection, much of west and central Upper Mi could remain dry for a good portion of the day on Sunday. Given increasing moisture, more clouds, lower max temps in the 70s to lower 80s, and lighter winds, wildfires won`t be as much of a concern on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019 The synoptic pattern Sunday evening will feature an upper-level long wave trough over the Northern Plains and ridging downstream of it over northern New England. At the surface, a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will be pushing across Upper Michigan from west to east. As the upper level pattern amplifies Sunday evening, deeper moisture will surge northward across the eastern U.P. with both the NAM and GFS showing PW values in excess of 1.5", and jet-level divergence will increase, supporting heavier showers. Two caveats though: first, the southerly flow off of still-cool Lake Michigan will keep instability effectively nil, and second, the cold front is rather progressive, so for both of these reasons prolonged heavy rain and flooding are not anticipated despite these abnormally high moisture values. Monday`s forecast hinges on how quickly that system gets out of here. In the more progressive NAM and GFS, the parent short wave moves overhead Monday morning followed by mid-level subsidence causing cloud cover to decrease from west to east by during the day and leading to a rather pleasant afternoon. The EC was trying to hang precip back longer with its 00z run but came more into line with the American models at 12z. Still, looks pretty wet Monday morning over the east, but that rain will taper off in the afternoon. Regardless of any precip, with cool air aloft (850 mb temps only about 3-4 C) and a deepening low pressure system to the NE, expect blustery NW winds on Monday, with gusts on land likely greater than 20 mph, and perhaps approaching 30 mph if the quicker models verify in giving us clear skies/surface heating to further steepen the lapse rates. Tuesday looks dry, sunny, and seasonably warm with highs in the 70s all the way to the Superior shoreline as broad surface high pressure passes by to our south and we find ourselves in warm WSW flow. With deep mixing to perhaps 2.5 km, will have to keep an eye on fire wx, albeit contingent on how wet fuels remain from the rain in the short term. Relied on a blend of our local mixed Td tool and bias- corrected MOS guidance for dew points on Tuesday which results in Min RH as low as 25% over the interior west. The next short wave dives down across the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday, and with an amplifying attendant surface low, will likely see significant rain (0.5" or more) Wednesday. The trend with today`s 12z guidance has been to amplify the system more than in previous model runs, making Wednesday look like an all-day soaker. With the pattern slowing down and multiple vort lobes rotating around the main short wave Thursday into Friday, looks like we`ll remain unsettled through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 819 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019 Under a very dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through early Sunday afternoon. There will be an increase in mid-level clouds at KSAW later Sunday morning. Showers associated with a low pressure system and front may reach KSAW and KIWD in the afternoon. Upslope flow into KSAW and the proximity to the greater low level moisture will be more likely to drop cigs into the MVFR category by late afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 239 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2019 Winds across Lake Superior will mostly be under 20kt thru Sun. However, high obs platforms over the e half of Lake Superior (like Stannard Rock) will see some sse wind gusts into the 20-30kt range today. A cold front will move across Lake Superior Sun and Sun night. As the front continues eastward on Mon, a low pressure system will lift n and ne along the front. As a result, may end up seeing nw winds increase to 20-30kt on Mon over the e half of Lake Superior. Winds will be lighter, mostly under 20kt over the w. Winds will diminish blo 20 knots for Tue. A low pres trough will then drop se across the Upper Lakes on Wed. Depending on the strength of the trof, another period of stronger nw winds will be possible, especially after it passes in the Wed night into Thu time frame. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Cold front sliding south across the Palmer Divide at mid-afternoon, while low level moisture has mixed out ahead of the boundary, leaving only a narrow ribbon of higher CAPE in place along the Kansas border. Latest HRRR and most mesoscale models keep almost all deep convection north and east of the area this evening, with perhaps a slight chance for a weaker storm or two across nrn El Paso county as post frontal air mass will be moderately unstable. Cold front then quickly drops south through the plains overnight, with increasing north winds along and east of the mountains, especially after midnight. Could see some gusts toward 40 kts along the Arkansas River as boundary accelerates and gradient tightens late. In general, precip chances overnight look rather low across most of the region, with perhaps a weak tsra possible near the KS border, and some light shra over upslope favored areas along the Palmer Divide, across the eastern mountains, and over the higher terrain south of the Arkansas River. On Sunday, eastern mountains and plains will stay mainly cloudy, with a 20f-30f drop in max temps versus Saturday`s hot readings. Air mass looks fairly stable, with only some weak instability developing by afternoon, mainly over the eastern mountains. Will keep some low pops for tsra over the mountains and a chance for a shower or two on the plains in place, though odds for measurable precip look fairly low. Farther west, front will have minor impact, with warm and dry air mass continuing to aid in widespread snowmelt along the Continental Divide overnight and through the day on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 Models in decent agreement through much of the extended period. There are differences in the early part in regards to storm coverage between the NAM and GFS. Ensembles tend to support an active weather pattern with several disturbances moving across the Rockies. Ensemble spreads increase into the later half of the week. Sunday night and Monday...expect ongoing showers and thunderstorms on Sunday evening across much of the region. The primary focus should be over the Eastern Mountains, with more isolated activity over the Plains. This activity should dissipate by midnight. Overnight lows will be cool with generally 40s across the region. The biggest discrepancies between the NAM and GFS occur Monday and Monday evening. The GFS has much wetter conditions than the almost dry NAM. The GFS has more scattered showers over the mountain areas by the afternoon, which prevails into the evening hours before dying off. For now trended with the GFS, but this may be well overdone in regards to pops. Afternoon highs on Monday will reach into the 70s across the region. Tuesday...weak energy moving across the area on Tuesday afternoon will likely lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the Eastern Mountains. Model guidance is also suggesting isolated thunderstorms may be possible out near the Kansas border during the evening hours. All activity should dissipate with sunset. A cold front should drop south across the Plains during the afternoon, however, highs will still manage to reach into the 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast by the afternoon hours on Wednesday, mainly over the Eastern Mountains. More isolated activity is expected elsewhere over the mountains. The roller coaster of temperatures will continue with 70s across the region on Wednesday for highs. By Thursday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. Areas over Teller County and the Southern Sangre de Cristo range have the greatest potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms. Locations in and around the Spring burn scar will need to be monitored for the potential for flash flooding on Thursday afternoon and evening. Highs will once again warm into the 80s across the region for Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday...temperatures are expected to remain warm with mid to upper 80s for highs. Friday once again has the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. This time the focus will be from the Central Mountains, into the Palmer Divide region. Flash flooding on Waldo may be of concern on Friday. On Saturday, another round of showers will slide across the region on Saturday. Again the focus appears to be the Central Mountains into the Palmer Divide. This is a long ways out, but will need to be monitored. A note about hydrologic conditions. After a couple of cooler days early in the extended period, a continuation of warmer highs will lead to more snowmelt over the mountains, especially the La Garitas, the San Juans, into the San Luis Valley. Areas along the Arkansas River including the Royal Gorge area are seeing high flows as well. Even though flows may subside a briefly, rises are expected again by early next week. Any additional precipitation will only add to the runoff. We will continue to monitor flooding conditions, but if you have reports of flooding, please contact the NWS in Pueblo. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Gusty sw winds will subside this evening and overnight. On Sunday, south winds will increase in the afternoon with a few gusts to 20 kts after 18z-20z. At KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Strong cold front will arrive around 00z, with a shift to north winds gusting to 30-40 kts through the evening and overnight. Low chance of a vcsh from late tonight into Sun morning behind the front, though threat for any vcts looks low. Cigs will fall behind the front, though downsloping north winds should keep any MVFR cigs mainly north of the terminal near the Palmer Divide from 04z onward. On Sunday, VFR cigs with a very low chance of a vcsh/vcts, as better odds for precip will be back over the higher terrain. At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Winds will switch to the north and gust 30-40 kts after 02z as strong cold front passes. Low chance of a vcsh from late tonight into Sun morning as a few sprinkles may develop behind the front, better chances south over rising terrain south of the Arkansas River. Cigs will fall behind the front as well, though downsloping north winds should keep any MVFR cigs mainly south of the terminal from 04z-06z onward. On Sunday, VFR cigs with threat for shra mainly west of terminal closer to the higher terrain. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for COZ065>068-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak stationary front will remain stalled just south of the region tonight. This front, in addition to an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Mid Mississippi Valley will be the focus for unsettled weather through the weekend. Another stronger cold front will arrive from the west for early next week bringing another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Saturday... No changes to the flash flood watch. Main area of deep convection and heavy rainfall rates is lined up across west- central NC west-northwest into the TN Valley southwest of Abingdon, VA. Heavier rains with embedded thunderstorms looks likely mainly across the NC mountains/foothills through this evening, with light to at times moderate showers further north in the stable air. High-res 18z NAM and latest HRRR have a decent handle showing main area of concern over our southern area along/south of US 58 from Whitetop, VA east to about Stuart/Martinsville through the night. May need to lower pops further north as this area is in a lull between vorts and lack of support in the lower levels, except for some upslope winds. Previous discussion from early this afternoon... Flash flood watch remains in effect along the southern Blue Ridge into Sunday. The frontal boundary remains stalled to our south tonight into Sunday. Several shortwaves will rotate around the upper trough into Sunday. The 850 mb southeasterly flow will add orographic lift enhancement to the rainfall along and east of the southern Appalachians. With PWATS around 1.6 inch, storms will be efficient rain producers. Heavier rain rates over a saturated ground (over 3 inches fell in some places see PNS) will result in potential flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and along creeks and streams. Bands of showers will develop within instability to the south and lift north this evening into tonight as the upper low lifts by to the west. With the wedge in place, uncertainty remains to how far north heavier rainfall coverage can make it. The flood watch may be expanded depending on the evolution of the storms, their position and movement. Areas of fog and drizzle will form tonight into Sunday morning. Shaped the pops towards a blend of HiresW East, HRRR and NAMnest. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains to mid 60s in the piedmont. A slow-evolving upper low over the Tennessee Valley will deamplify and merge with the stronger northern branch of the jet on Sunday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move northward across our region. Model soundings show a number of favorable parameters for heavy rainfall/localized downpours, including rich moisture through a deep depth of atmosphere, warm cloud depths between 11-12 kft and tall, skinny instability profiles. High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the mid 60s in the west to the upper 70s in the east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... A piece of the upper low over the Tennessee Valley gets absorbed and picked up in the northern stream trough with the long wave trough crossing over the northeast by late Monday. This will keep the region in a very moist air mass. Have continued to highlight heavy rain and flooding potential ahead of the front through Monday night. Rain exits the foothills and piedmont by Tuesday evening, which is somewhat faster than past few runs of the guidance. Behind the front there will be significant change in air mass with surface dew points crashing into the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... Deep upper trough developing Wednesday with a closed low forming over the Great Lakes Thursday. This long wave trough moves off the east coast on Saturday. At the surface high pressure will cover the northeast United States Wednesday. Low pressure over the Gulf Coast region moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic region by Thursday. This will bring the chance of the rain back into the area and will push a cold front off the east coast by Friday. Dry weather is expected behind the front for Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 723 PM EDT Saturday... Southeast flow and a stalled boundary will keep showers/few thunderstorms around through this period, with most of our area remaining socked in with low ceilings and at times vsbys due to fog and/or rain. The heavier showers through this evening into overnight look to stay south of a BLF-DAN line. Nonetheless, poor flying conditions are expected most of the this period for our terminals. At times, east-southeast winds may gust to 20kts or so. Forecast confidence in the above aviation scenario is above average. Extended Aviation Discussion... The front/baroclinic zone will linger near or just south of the area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure aloft through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result in an extended period of rain/showers/thunderstorms through Monday. Periods of fog/low clouds will also persist into early next week. The unsettled weather will continue into Thursday with scattered MVFR mainly diurnal storms. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Pockets of heavier showers will continue across the region this afternoon into Sunday. This may result in another 1 to 3 inches of rain with the heavier rates likely along the Blue Ridge mountains, espcly north of the VA/NC border. Flash flood watch remains in effect through Sunday. With PWATS around 1.6 inches, showers will be efficient rain producers with higher than normal rain rates. Another cold front arrives on Monday with the potential for another round of showers and storms including higher rates as the cool wedge departs. Therefore additional watches may be needed over the weekend with any river flooding likely not occurring until early next week and mainly along the Dan River at this point. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ014>017-022- 032-033-043. NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ001>005- 018>020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...KK/WP HYDROLOGY...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening...mostly clear conditions with light variable winds were common. the northwest...ongoing convection across Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas was moving east southeast with increasing cirrus clouds approaching Northeast Oklahoma. Overnight tonight...ongoing convection is forecast to develop into a MCS and push southeastward toward the CWA within a strengthening low level jet. Latest CAM solutions continue to indicate a weakening MCS possibly reaching the CWA just after 12z Sunday...while the majority of the precip remains just west of the CWA where the low level jet looks to be during the morning hours Sunday. HRRR runs have shifted the precip back and forth around the CWA border slightly the past few runs and will thus...leave pops for after 12z and mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma after 12z Sunday. Cloud cover should increase across much of the CWA overnight as the MCS approaches which may hold temps up a degree or so compared to this mornings lows. However...still think lows tonight in the 60s will be possible as dewpoints remain in the low/mid 60s. Thus for the evening update...have adjusted the timing of incoming cloud cover and added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoints grids. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 87 61 79 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 67 90 66 81 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 65 88 65 77 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 62 85 58 78 / 10 10 20 0 FYV 60 84 61 76 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 61 86 60 78 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 65 87 62 78 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 62 86 59 77 / 0 10 10 0 F10 66 87 62 77 / 0 10 10 0 HHW 67 90 67 80 / 0 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20