Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Regional radar mosaic shows thunderstorms stretching from parts of
eastern Montana into southern Saskatchewan. Short term models
still have varying solutions regarding convective evolution
tonight. Some still show a few thunderstorms moving into parts of
western North Dakota, while others are basically dry. Have opted
to keep the forecast on track with chances of thunderstorms
generally confined to the northwest part of the forecast area.
HRRR updraft helicity tracks still suggest the potential for at
least some storm organization, and with the latest SPC Outlook
still carrying a marginal risk for severe weather, opted to hold
onto an isolated severe mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the northwest corner tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Did not make any large scale changes to the going forecast for
tonight. Blended in short term model pop solutions which still
brings the main chances of showers / thunderstorms to the
northwest part of the state later tonight. Will have to keep an
eye on any convection that may try to fire farther south, with
the last couple of HRRR iterations suggesting the potential for
convection developing around Miles City, moving east into
southwest North Dakota. Did not add that with this update, but if
a consistent signal develops, could see having to add pops farther
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
A severe weather threat will develop late Friday afternoon and
continue into the overnight hours for western and central North
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main
threats.
This afternoon, a midlevel ridge axis was placed over the
northern plains with a surface high centered over southern
Manitoba. Ongoing lee cyclogenesis over central Montana, due to
an upstream amplified trough over the northwest, was increasing
southeasterly flow at the surface over western North Dakota. A few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in the
upslope regime of southwest North Dakota under the southeasterly
flow. Otherwise skies remain mostly sunny through the afternoon
with the midlevel ridging in place.
Tonight, the amplified trough with attendant 500mb height falls over
the northern Rockies develops an 850mb 50 kt jet over western North
Dakota. Convection will be possible overnight over northwest North
Dakota on the nose of this jet. With steep midlevel lapse rates in
the region and elevated CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg, a severe
hail risk does exist for the northwest with SPC highlighting this in
a Day 1 Marginal risk.
Friday, the surface low is forecast to track into southern
Saskatchewan with a trailing cold front moving into eastern Montana
by the morning hours. A conditionally unstable sector develops over
western and central North Dakota through the day with modest surface
layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Initially,
convection may develop along a pre-frontal surface trough over
central North Dakota Friday afternoon. Effective bulk layer shear
values in the vicinity of this front are marginal, ranging from 20-
30 kts with vectors oriented generally orthogonal to the boundary.
Though shear values are on the lower side of the severe parameter
envelope, MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg will still bring an
isolated chance for severe hail and wind along this front Friday
afternoon.
Additional development is expected late Friday afternoon
off the higher terrain of southeast Montana and will move into North
Dakota through the evening. Guidance indicates the bulk of this
convection moving along the front draped from southwest North Dakota
to the northeast. Uncertainty lies in how much access this
convection will have to surface based parcels as high-resolution
guidance places the convection along the western periphery or behind
the frontal boundary. Additionally, increased ascent thanks to an
intensifying 850mb jet Friday evening should trigger additional
convection in southwest to south-central North Dakota. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible if storms can stay
discrete, thanks to higher effective bulk layer shear values in the
southwest and a well-mixed boundary layer with steep low level lapse
rates. Given the abundant ascent from 00Z to 06Z tomorrow evening,
convective modes will likely turn to multi-cell clusters with
embedded and lower magnitude severe threats. The overall tornado
threat with this setup is low given relatively higher LCL`s and
uncertainty in how discrete cells will be...though there is the
obligatory non- zero risk with the possibility of discrete
supercells.
Regarding other sensible weather Friday, a solid low-level
thermal ridge axis in the pre-frontal region will lead to
seasonably warm highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Additionally,
southerly winds within the warm sector will be breezy given
efficient momentum transfer with sustained winds of 20-30 mph
expected.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Cooler temperatures with mainly dry conditions will prevail in the
extended forecast.
An upper level trough extends into the northern plains starting
Saturday behind a cold front. The trough will bring cooler
temperatures to the area, with highs in the 60s and 70s through
mid week, under northwesterly flow aloft. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into early Wednesday associated
with cooler air aloft tied to a shortwave trough passage. The
GFS/ECMWF are in agreement with a trough moving through in this
time frame. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time
due to a lack of moisture and instability. Temperatures are
forecast to return to the 80s towards the end of the week with
ridging returning to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Have gone with a VFR forecast for the 00Z TAFs, but there will be
a few things to watch over the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible later tonight in northwest North
Dakota. Those are expected to mainly be north of KISN, but it
could be close. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again late
Friday afternoon, but was there was not enough confidence in them
reaching a terminal location to introduce those chances just yet.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...CJS/BRM
AVIATION...CK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across
Pennsylvania the next few days. The remnants of a cut off upper
low over the Miss Valley will merge with an approaching trough
and bring some showers to the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
boundary, likely dry line, is pushing through the central mtns
and made some radar returns as it passed. Showers in the SE
dies, but new RAP and HRRR redevelop some isolated showers along
the MD border in York and Lancaster Cos within a couple of
hours. Will keep just a 20 PoP there thru 06Z. High clouds a
little more thick than thought, so temps may not bottom out, and
have nudged them up a deg or two, more so in the south.
Prev...
Small showers which popped over South Mountain and adjacent
hill tops continue to drift slowly SSE. Sticky m60 dewpoints
still around in the southeastern counties and even here locally
in Happy Valley. 50s are coming south into the area. It might
take all night for the sub-60 dewpoints to work south of the
Turnpike. Sunset should kill off the taller cu and a chilly
night is in store for the nrn tier where m40s are likely. The
deeper, darker valleys in the north will probably get some fog
in them by morning, but the temps will be chasing the dewpoints
down, and may not catch up. The stream water temp vs air temp
difference should make for fog, though.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
After areas of morning valley fog Friday morning, high pressure
provides the first of at least 2.5 dry days across central PA.
Model soundings are well mixed to 850mb, supporting max temps
Friday afternoon between 75-80F. Still expecting variable high
cloudiness as moisture from convective blowoff induced north of
the slow moving central plains upper low streams overhead.
Humidity will be comfortable, and highs range from the low 70s
north to the lower to mid 80s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance continues to be in good agreement. Latest medium range
models now have that large upper level low over the plains this
weekend. That low and the Upper level ridge building over
southern Canada will dominate the weekend. Expect dry weather
through Saturday.
However the low will begin to push the ridge to the east and
the overrunning moisture will bring some mid to high clouds
which should stifle daytime maximums. The high pressure parked
over New England and associated easterly flow off the Atlantic
Ocean will hold temperatures near average this weekend, despite
building warmth aloft.
Have ramped up POPs early next week. The remnants of the cut
off low should merge with an approaching northern stream trough
and should push through the region Sunday into Monday. At this
point, the best chance of rain looks to be late Monday/early
Tuesday associated with the passage of surface the cold front.
Anomalous pwats are progged to accompany this system and GEFS
plume data indicate that locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled
out.
The bulk of model guidance supports a brief period of dry
weather Tuesday PM into Wed, as ridging builds in ahead of
anomalous upper trough diving into the Grt Lks, which could
bring us our next round of showers late Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Minor adjustments made to the TAFS late this evening.
Earlier discussion below.
00Z TAFS sent.
Looking at mainly VFR conditions overnight. There could be some
fog for a brief time, as temperatures near the cross over point,
but the airmass is fcst to dry more later tonight into Friday.
Overall the best shot of dry weather we have seen lately. The
next chc of showers is not to later on Sunday.
.Outlook...
Sat...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.
Sun...Chance of PM showers/t-storms along south/west edge of
airspace.
Sun night-Mon...Increasing coverage of showers/t-storms with
heavy rain possible.
Tue...Chc shra early...then improving conditions.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Just a bit of convection so far this afternoon. Latest HRRR still
increases it a bit for the rest of the afternoon then dissipates
it early this evening. Should stay fairly close to the mtns and
have trended pops in that direction. Quiet later this evening into
Friday morning. Warm Friday afternoon with more widespread
showers and tstms expected. A few strong to possibly severe storms
possible mainly over the Panhandle though modest shear looks to
limit it some. A pretty strong cold front for this time of year
will pass across later Friday night bringing much colder
temperatures for Saturday. Upper trough axis passes by Saturday
night with some showers likely associated with it. Chilly Saturday
night with GFS still looking too warm so maintained favor towards
the cooler NAM.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Significant cool down for Sunday as unseasonable cold system moves
through the area. By SUnday afternoon...upper trough overhead
moving pretty quickly east. 700mb temperatures on the ECMWF fall
to -4C across southeast Wyoming. Fortunately...looks like most if
not all QPF will be east as well...so precip likely to be minimal.
Could see lingering snow flurries/isolated snow showers over the
Laramie Range...though confidence is pretty low on that happening.
With the departure of that upper low...we slowly begin to warm up
once again with 700mb temperatures climbing to +4 to +7C over the
area Monday.
Clipper system on Tuesday could bring some shower potential to
eastern portion of the CWFA...including the Panhandle...while
western sections stay dry.
Trending towards a drier forecast after Tuesday as high pressure
builds into the area from the west. 700mb temperatures again up
near +7 to +10C...so warmer temperatures looking more likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
VFR conditions expected through tonight and early Friday. Evening
thunderstorm activity has been generally located near KLAR and west
of KCYS. Kept VCSH over the next few hours, but generally expect the
activity to dissipate around sunset. Another round of thunderstorms
are possible Friday which will likely be more widespread and extend
into the Nebraska panhandle terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Fire weather concerns expected to remain low into at least early next
week with non-critical conditions continuing. It will be warm
across the area Friday with scattered showers and storms Friday
afternoon and evening especially over the plains. A strong cold
front will pass across later Friday night bringing much cooler air
for the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Rivers and streams west of the Laramie Range will slowly rise over
the next 24-48 hours, but all forecast points are expected to stay
below flood stage. Much cooler temperatures this weekend will lead
to slower mountain snow melt and ease near-term flooding concerns.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...CLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
954 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows broad 1004mb low from NE TX/N LA/N MS this evening,
with high pressure ridging across the Gulf. This is keeping light
to moderate SW winds, likely to pick up after 06z across the
coastal waters. Satellite & Radar showing clusters of TSRA (that
was severe earlier in the evening across Houston`s area) has
diminished, but still producing some light to moderate showers
over coastal Jefferson county into the coastal waters.
As far as convection initiation after 06z, still less confident,
as the latest HRRR shows nothing until after daybreak. However,
the 00z NAM12 initialized the TX convection fairly well, also the
convection developing across the ArkLaTex now. Thus, additional
convection likely overnight across the region as the shortwave
vort lobe rotates around the larger upper low over OK. Elected to
leave the pops at 40% already in the forecast, which essentially
yields scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
For this evening`s and overnight dewpoints and temperatures,
observations and updated guidance shows about a 2 degree increase,
especially along and south of I-10 where the SW winds expected to
stay up ~10 mph overnight. No other changes to the forecast.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/
AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period,
however showers and storms are expected to move into the region
late tonight and remain around through the end of Friday. This may
cause periodic lower vis and ceilings, but mainly on the second
half of the period. Winds will remain southwest to west.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/
DISCUSSION...
EWD departure of convection earlier today led to a rather benign
afternoon of fair weather cu and high temperatures climbing into
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Forecast tonight is a bit uncertain in
regard to convective potential, though it appears that the evening
will at least start off quiet amid dry air aloft and net
subsidence. There is some potential that upstream convection
already underway across east central TX could spread into the area
from west by mid to late evening, though the more likely scenario
is for new/additional scattered convection to develop during the
overnight hours as a lobe of energy pinwheels around the upper
low over ERN OK/WRN AR.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and
Friday night as the upper low slowly meanders EWD into WRN TN,
with most of the activity focused ahead of a weak SFC front. SPC
has outlined the area within a marginal risk of SVR TSTMS, with
large hail and/or damaging winds the primary hazards. While the
atmospheric MSTR content is progged to be lower than the past few
days, already saturated soils will yield rapid run-off, so there
is at least some potential for localized flooding, though not
organized/widespread enough to warrant a watch.
Small rain chances were retained over extreme ERN zones SAT to
account for any PCPN within the wrap around MSTR envelope, with
a steady intrusion of dry continental air expected to otherwise
keep most of the area dry.
Aside from small PoPs associated with a reinforcing front on MON,
the rest of the forecast looks dry, with near or below normal
temperatures amid deep N/NW flow aloft.
13
MARINE...
Southwest flow will prevail through Friday, with a light westerly
winds expected over the weekend. A light to modest offshore flow
will develop Monday as a cool front pushes through the area.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 88 70 89 / 40 60 30 30
LCH 77 90 74 91 / 40 50 40 10
LFT 77 90 73 91 / 40 70 50 30
BPT 77 90 73 92 / 40 50 20 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Only real short term concern is convective threat over part of
central MN this evening and overall temperature trends.
Latest SPC mesoscale analysis showing decreasing threat of
isolated thunder over central MN late this afternoon/evening.
MLCAPE forecast has decreased considerably from this morning for
this afternoons forecast. Still, HRRR paints some ISOLD convection
along weak surface convergence line over the northwest CWA. We
will hold onto the slight chance PoP for that activity, but should
dissipate quickly through about 7-8PM. Then mainly clear
overnight with patchy fog possible in low lying areas mainly over
west central WI where winds will be light.
Warmer conditions into Friday afternoon with 85-90 across MN
portion of the CWA and mid 80s for high temperatures into west
central WI. Surface winds expected to increase, especially to the
west ahead of the next incoming surface front developing over the
Dakotas. Could see gusts around 20kts far west in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
One more warm day Saturday, before a pattern change brings a stretch
of cooler weather as broad troughing dominates the eastern US.
The upper level ridge currently overhead begins moving east of the
area on saturday, but still expect another warm day with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Precipitation chances increase Saturday
evening across western Minnesota as a cold front from the surface
low well of to the north approaches the area. This front moves east
overnight into Sunday, but precipitation chances look to decrease
through the day on Sunday as the system weakens begins to weaken.
Eastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin may only see widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms by the time the front
approaches later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, so have
lowered PoPs to the 20-30% range. The heavy rainfall potential
does not look as impressive as it once did given the progressive
nature of the front and overall weakening of the system. Could see
amounts around an inch Saturday evening across western Minnesota,
with potentially nothing at all across eastern Minnesota and
west- central Wisconsin. The strong/severe thunderstorm potential
looks low with the front coming through well-ahead of the stronger
wind shear associated with the trough axis. Temperatures will be
cooler on Sunday with most areas in the low 70s behind the front,
except for portions of west- central Wisconsin that will not see
the front pass until Sunday afternoon.
A cool and dry day is expected Monday before precipitation chances
return Tuesday into Wednesday as another shortwave pivots around the
base of the trough. Overall, nothing much stands out from this
system with no signals pointing towards an appreciable severe
weather or heavy rain threat. Temperatures are expected to remain
five to ten degrees below normal through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
Isolated showers/thunder is possible at KSTC through sunset.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected tonight with light
south/southeast winds. Southerly winds increase by Friday
afternoon with gusts to between 17 and 25 knots developing.
KMSP...
Diurnally-drive showers in west central MN are expected to
diminish this eve prior to reaching the site.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW at 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
806 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening sounding from OHX shows a very moist, modestly unstable
and weakly-sheared environment in place. Surface-based CAPE is 571
J/kg and the lifted index sits at -2. Precipitable water is 1.89",
and there is no pronounced dry layer from the surface through the
mid levels. Mid-level lapse rate is only 5.7 C/km, so it`s going
to be difficult to get any strong updrafts through that. At 00Z,
the most significant meteorological features affecting Middle
Tennessee are a 1004 mb surface low situated near Jackson, MS and
a closed 500 mb low centered over eastern OK. So copious moisture
is already being advected into Middle Tennessee. The HRRR keeps
scattered cells in the area overnight and tomorrow morning. At
this time, the hourly forecast grids are holding up well and there
is no reason to make changes to the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact all terminals,
with dropping cigs and vis likely overnight. MVFR cigs/vis can be
expected overnight, with IFR cigs possible during the morning
hours as rain continues. Models back off rain chances a bit late
morning into the afternoon, where more scattered showers and
storms will be possible. Cigs may get to VFR during the afternoon,
along with improving visibility as more widespread showers move
northward. Easterly winds around 5 to 10 knots will move in
overnight and continue during the day Friday.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Barnwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
758 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south tonight across the Virginias and
move into North Carolina Friday before stalling across the
southern Appalachians. This front, in addition to an area of low
pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Mid
Mississippi Valley will be the focus for unsettled weather
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 243 PM EDT Thursday...
A cold front to our north along the Ohio River will move south
this afternoon and pass across the Virginias late tonight and into
North Carolina Friday. Outflow boundaries from Wednesday`s
convection were across the region. There are many mechanisms to
create showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight
including thermodynamic lift from the daytime heating,
convergence along surface boundaries, and orographic lift over
the mountains. Surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg and
pwats around 1.25 to 1.50 inches are forecasted this afternoon
into this evening. This could result in some robust updrafts.
Shear profiles are expected to be relatively weak, wind fields
diminishing aloft, thus expecting convective mode to be pulse
storms which can still produce strong localized wind gusts and
heavy rains.
As the front sags south tonight, convergence along this boundary
will generate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms that will
persist into the day Friday. There is the potential for back-
building deep convection as the shallow north winds behind the
front encounter the opposing southwesterly winds aloft. This may
create very slow to near stationary movement of some of the
thunderstorms, yeilding localized excessive rainfall. Also added
areas of fog for tonight into Friday morning. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to the
upper 60s in the piedmont.
A stacked upper low will slowly travel through the Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, while high pressure wedges down into
the Appalachians. The deep moisture transport continues into
the region Friday with good isentropic lift over the wedge. The
highest QPF will fall across the southern portion of the
forecast areas. High temperatures on Friday will vary from the
upper 60s in the west to the upper 70s in the east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 PM EDT Thursday...
A damp and gloomy weekend is ahead as a stalled frontal boundary
remains draped over Virginia and North Carolina, while high pressure
wedges southward along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. An area
of low pressure slowly tracking eastward over the lower Mississippi
River Valley should continue to funnel moisture northward from the
Gulf of Mexico toward this stalled frontal boundary. Northeast flow
within the cool wedge should also aid in supplying additional marine
air. As a result, copious amounts of cloud cover and occasional
showers will persist through this period. Any chance of afternoon to
evening thunderstorms should be confined to far southwest Virginia
and northwest North Carolina where instability is not dampened by
the cool wedge. The only notable change for this part of the
forecast compared to previous renditions is the increasing of POPs
due to added confidence and continuity in the models.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...
Although high pressure should depart offshore and allow the cool
wedge to weaken over the CWA, remnant tropical moisture will linger
in place. By Monday afternoon, a cold front will arrive from the
Ohio River Valley to spark more showers and thunderstorms that
should persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the same area of low
pressure responsible for all the tropical moisture should ride
northward along the frontal boundary during Tuesday night into
Wednesday, which could slow the forward progress of the cold front.
Furthermore, uncertainty exists on how much the convection can
generate enough momentum to push the cold front forward. Given the
competing factors at work here, any hope of drier weather will have
to wait until the cold front can finally head offshore, but
confidence is too low to specify when that will exactly happen.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Thursday...
Multiple outflow boundaries and an unstable air mass across
southern Virginia, northern North Carolina and southern West
Virginia were triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
overnight. HRRR and wrf guidance suggested coverage of
precipitation will increase toward morning across the area. A
cold front approaching the region from the north will push into
at least northern North Carolina by morning which will prolong
the low level convergence and put the region on the cooler side
of the front for Friday.
Ceilings outside of the thunderstorms will be VFR this evening
but will drop to IFR on the north side of the front and will
remain low on Friday. With any of the thunderstorms MVFR
ceilings are likely as well as MVFR visibility due to heavy
rain. Wind gusts near storms may be up to 30 knots.
MVFR fog will develop overnight in areas that had rain this
afternoon and evening. Ridges in southwest Virginia and
northwest North Carolina will be obscured with IFR or lower
ceilings and visibilities.
Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, precipitation
forecast.
Above average confidence for winds.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
The front/baroclinic zone will linger near or just south of the
area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure aloft
through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result in an
extended period showers/thunderstorms through Monday. Periods
of fog/low clouds will also persist into early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK