Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
709 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure well off the East Coast and low pressure west of
the area will keep southerly flow over the region through the
weekend and into early next week. Moisture will reach a peak
this weekend with showers and thunderstorms...possible heavy at
times...likely through the weekend. Drier air is expected to
return to the area in the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The strongest instability early this evening appears to be
along the Savannah river north into the central Midlands.
Convection moving east-northeast out of the CSRA into the south
Midlands early this evening. Laps soundings support marginal
severe winds and hail along with locally heavy rain with
precipitable water near 2 inches and effective shear near 30
knots. Lowered pops in the Piedmont and north Midlands as
moisture more limited and short wave energy mainly north of the
region into NC...convection in the Upstate limited and HRRR not
indicating advection southeast.
Pops diminish late evening through the overnight hours with
loss of heating and passing of the shortwave energy but with
abundant low level moisture in place will continue to hold a
slight chance of rain through morning. Convective debris clouds
will limit radiational cooling and conditions are favorable for
stratus to redevelop late tonight which will support lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night...Upper level trough in the
southwestern US will be slowly progressing eastward across the
southern Plains during the day and into the lower MS River
Valley Thursday night. At the surface weak low pressure over
eastern TX will keep southerly low level flow in place and
combine with the southerly turning mid and upper level flow to
continue pumping Gulf moisture northward. On Friday the upper
level trough will develop into an upper low with the surface low
tracking into the central Gulf States. This will strengthen the
southerly flow with reinforcing moisture overtaking the area.
With the southerly flow a warm front is expected to develop
Friday and slowly move northward across the area. Friday night
the upper low will continue moving toward the area with the
surface low becoming nearly stationary near the AL/TN border.
Couple of concerns through the short term all around convective
activity and potential for heavy rain. Models indicate moderate
instability through the period and with divergence aloft
increasing Friday into Friday night expect the highest potential
for strong...possibly severe...thunderstorms during that time
frame. Heavy rain will also be possible especially Friday and
Friday night when models continue indicating pwat values near 2
inches plus a difluent upper pattern. Localized flooding may
occur. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for daytime
highs with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper low will remain nearly stationary over the weekend
then slowly eject eastward early next week with ample moisture
from the Gulf over the region through Monday. Have increased
pops through the period with with likely pops through the
weekend then slowly decreasing Tuesday through Wednesday. Main
concern remains heavy rain potential and localized flooding over
the weekend and early next week with a lower potential for
damaging wind. Temperatures through the long term will be near
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered convection early this evening with focus across the
CSRA and south Midlands. Brief restrictions possible at all
terminals through about 02z associated with thunderstorms. Gusty
winds possible 25 to 30 knots with convection otherwise light
and variable winds. Abundant low-level moisture and south flow
overnight will will likely result in MVFR/IFR ceilings toward
morning. Strong low level jet suggests stratus and lower threat
for fog. Highest confidence of restrictions overnight at AGS and
DNL. Morning ceilings should improve to VFR by late morning or
early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
again late in the day. Winds mainly southwest 5 to 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning stratus
potential, and increasing chance for scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms, through the period.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1027 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated shower is still possible Thursday over the south
and east. Then, an extended period of dry weather will arrive
and last through the weekend. We are monitoring a potential
risk for heavy rain early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Can`t find anything over 25 dbZ over the CWA right now. Stuff
really fell apart. Even the convection to the NW is diving into
CLE and only the anvil rain is headed our way. Have dropped PoPs
to chcs at most for the rest of the night. Front still coming,
so can`t remove it. Only a minor tweak to very near term temps,
but mins look on track for a mild and slightly muggy night as
the dewpoints don`t drop much, even in the NW. Will leave fog
out for now as it shouldn`t be widespread with lots of clouds
around.
Prev...
Lightning far off to our west at 00Z. Just weak and weakening
showers over north-central PA, and further weakening is
forecast. TSRA across LE is along the good wind shift and right
underneath a healthy vort max/trough aloft. At this point, it
appears like taht stuff would be our best chc to get thunder.
The heating is gone and even that area of convection is moving
into a depression of CAPE on the sfc plots from SPC mesoanalysis
and RAP fcsts. Have removed thunder for most of the area for
most of the night. Nudged PoPs downward in the SE as well.
Prev...
Broken line of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms
crossed the Alleghenies and is moving through central portions
of the CWA at mid afternoon. Brief downpours are accompanying
the northern portion of the line crossing the North Central
mountains, but little else as CAPEs are limited to a few hundred
J/Kg. A trailing line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
along the lake breeze will move into western areas later this
afternoon, and with PW in the 1.5 to 2" range, there can be
brief downpours from these as well.
The cold front will slowly track southeastward overnight,
bisecting central PA by morning. Upward vertical motions
quite weak with the front by that time, with only isolated
shra along and ahead of it early Thursday morning. Scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across far
southern and southeastern zones through early afternoon before
the front exits to the southeast. Despite the chance of showers,
most areas will be dry on Thursday, beginning the trend of a
several day stretch of dry weather, an unusual occurrence over
the past 18 months in central PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The cold front will push slowly southeast across the southern
1/2 to 1/3 of CPA during the day on Thursday. There will be a
limited chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as
drier/lower PW air starts to arrive from the northwest. The
drying trend will continue Thursday night into Friday, as high
pressure migrates eastward from the Great Lakes into southern
Ontario.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement entering the long term period. Dry
air and a building ridge over the northern half of the central
US will dominate the weather pattern through the Mid Atlantic
this weekend. This will keep the region dry and temperatures
around normal. An upper level low moving underneath the ridge
will shift southward into the Gulf states. A northward moving
ripple of moisture will bring a decent chance for showers Sunday
night into Monday. Following this there will be an upper level
trough moving through the Great lakes that will bring another
chance for showers Monday into Tuesday. There is some
discrepancy as far as placement and timing but POPS through
early next work week will continue to increase.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Minor adjustments made to the TAFS late this evening.
Not much left on the radar. Isolated showers and storms
did fire up here a short time ago across Somerset County
and far southeastern Lancaster County. Otherwise the main
area of showers and isolated storms over the southern tier
of NY.
Earlier discussion below.
For the 00Z TAF package, main change was to adjust for
current and fcst showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Conditions will lower later tonight into Thursday morning.
Other change was to add some groups later in the period.
The cold front will drop southeast of PA later Thursday aft.
Some showers will linger into the afternoon across the south.
Overall some dry weather for several days after today.
.Outlook...
Fri-Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...A slight chance of showers and storms, mainly south and
west.
Mon...Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Clouds are slow to diminish over northeast Minnesota and the RAP
has a reasonable handle on them and does eventually clear most
areas out. However, we expect stratus to redevelop over and near
Lake Superior, possibly making it into the Iron Range and inland
in northern Wisconsin as well. Fog will again be possible and it
may be dense in spots.
We`ve been watching an area of showers and a few thunderstorms
moving through northern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota.
Most of the northern portion of this complex has weakened.
Guidance is mixed on whether or not it will hold together by the
time it gets to our western zones. At this time we did keep the
forecast dry for tonight but will watch over the next 1 to 2
hours. We may have to add a small POP but we expect any rainfall
to be light.
We did expand on the mention of showers on Thursday as a low level
frontal boundary makes its way into the Northland. There isn`t
great agreement on where it will end up so we have a generous area
of low POPs for now and we`ll update once we have a better idea on
how far southeast it will make it. There could be a thunderstorm
as well as there is sufficient CAPE. The lack of forcing will be a
limiting factor so we kept just showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
A weak area of low pressure was moving over
northern Minnesota at 19Z/2pm. A vorticity maxima was also moving
through the same area and this was enough lift to generates a few
showers from Hibbing to Ely. This vort max will continue to move
across northeast Minnesota through the afternoon. Since the
showers are diffuse in nature, will carry small pops for the rest
of the afternoon along the north shore of Lake Superior and
inland.
The surface low departs tonight as does the upper level support,
allowing high pressure to build over the region. The sky will clear
in the evening and combine with light winds to allow fog to develop.
The bulk of the fog should be found over the eastern two thirds of
the forecast area. Clouds will spread in from Lake Superior tonight
and may keep fog from becoming too deep. With the cloud cover and
fog, expect some cool temps tonight, generally in the 40s, with
lower 50s from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls.
On Thursday, one more piece of vorticity is progged to move over the
region in the afternoon. However, there are some model differences
with the strength of the forcing and the amount of moisture to work
with. Forecast soundings indicate a dry profile below 5K ft. Will
have some small pops in the afternoon where indications are the best
moisture source will be, albeit sparse. Max temps will be in the
80s, 70s in the Arrowhead, and cooler near Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Upper level ridging builds across the area Thursday night, while a
warm, southwest flow at the surface is expected ahead of a
developing area of low pressure in the Northern Plains. Minimum
temps will be in the upper 40s near bodies of water, to the upper
50s.
Friday and Friday night to be quiet across the area today, with
increasing southerly winds and above normal temperatures. Have
increased Max T`s slightly so the west and southwest fringes of the
forecast area are in the mid 80s, with 80s and upper 70s most other
inland areas. The north shore remains cooler yet with mid 60s near
Lake Superior.
Saturday through Monday an upper low moves across the area, bringing
a narrow plume of moisture and lift across the area, mainly in the
Saturday night and Sunday time frame. The system moves somewhat
slowly at first, so we may have a period of training/repeat storms.
The PW values will be higher than normal but nothing extreme, so the
storms should produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Considering the
southwest upper flow at 20-30kts, individual storms may not be
particularly slow moving, but the repeat storms could be an issue,
and may produce localized flooding. Saturday appears to be another
warm one, and while I do not have it quite as warm as Friday right
now, if the storm slows down any more it may be closer to the Friday
temperatures. Sunday will definitely be cooler though, with highs
only in the mid 60s-mid 70s. Monday we will be on the back side of
this system, with northwest flow and chances for diurnally driven
showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be
cooler on Monday as well.
Tuesday and Wednesday it appears to have another chance of showers
and thunderstorms as yet another shortwave moves through the area.
There is very poor agreement between models, so have maintained a
blended approach with small pops both days, but I expect to be able
to refine this before too much longer. Temperatures will be cooler
both days as well with the northwest flow over the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Low VFR and MVFR ceilings over northeast Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin this evening will gradually diminish this evening.
However, MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop around
and a but inland from Lake Superior later tonight. Fog will also
form, especially around Lake Superior. A low level frontal
boundary will move into northwest Minnesota late tonight. There
may be some broken mid clouds associated with and ahead of the
front. We left the forecast dry tonight as most of the models
suggest the showers and thunderstorms occurring along it this
evening will diminish as they move east. However, we expect at
least a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to form Thursday
afternoon along the front. There isn`t good agreement on the
position of the front in the afternoon so we only included VCSH in
a couple of the TAF sites for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The wind will be light tonight, mainly at or below 10 knots. This
will cause the direction to be variable at times. We expect fog to
expand and for the visibility to drop tonight so we will maintain
the Dense Fog Advisory. The wind will at or below 10 knots
Thursday into Thursday night with the direction becoming east to
northeast Thursday night.
Strong winds are not expected into this weekend but there could be
thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday which could cause
locally higher winds and waves.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 80 52 77 / 10 20 10 0
INL 50 76 53 84 / 10 10 10 0
BRD 51 85 59 87 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 45 83 55 85 / 0 10 10 0
ASX 43 80 53 77 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Scattered showers/thunderstorms weakening some as the slowly
migrate south and southeast. Cold front still the the west while
warm front has lifted north of Hwy 2. Main instabiility axis still
further west, but short range guidance still shows this moving
father east maybe as far as MN with 200-500 J/KG of MU CAPE (a
little higher further west). Light/spotty precip signal still on
CAMs in our eastern CWA, but hard to say if measurable will occur
outside of eastern ND and even there current coverage would be
max (likely decreasing from this point on). Minor adjustments
made, but overall forecast is on track.
UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Scattered showers/embedded thunderstorms are currently moving into
the Devils Lake Basin. As front migrates east-southeast overnight
axis of elevated instabiility and forcing are shown by RAP (and
CAMs) to support isolated to scattered activity migrating across
our CWA (mainly in ND). Previous forecast reflected this and only
minor adjustments were made to PoPs/thunder coverage/sky cover.
Due to dry layer, high bases, coverage, and progressive nature of
activity rainfall amounts should be low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Surface high pressure passing through the Red River Valley will
continue to yield light winds and abundant sunshine early this
evening. High pressure is pushed eastward this evening as a sfc low
and associated cold front traverse ridging aloft.
Initially scattered showers and storms will develop across this
northeast to southwest oriented cold front from southern MB to
southwest ND this evening. This activity is expected to dissipate
in coverage and intensity as instability weakens, propagating
eastward overnight. This does bring a chance for isolated showers
and storms to portions of the eastern ND, the Red River Valley,
and the northwest quarter of MN overnight with the greatest
chance of rain over the Devils Lake basin, but most locations will
likely stay dry. This boundary is expected to continue to weaken
as it moves through the region, lingering over north central MN
to southeast ND during the day Thursday.
By Thursday afternoon, warm air advection yields dew points in
the 60s lingering south of the boundary in portions of the
southern RRV and MN lakes country. While this set up supports a
small chance for isolated storm development, instability and
forcing will be greatly limited under dominant upper level
ridging. While chances for isolated storms cannot be entirely
ruled out, a dry scenario is much more likely so stuck with a dry
consensus of short term models. The primary result of this setup
will be increasingly warmer weather by Friday. Most locations will
see highs reaching the 80s Thursday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
An upper ridge will slide east of the region Thursday night and
set up a SW flow pattern aloft for the northern tier on Friday.
This will bring an active Friday/Saturday with potential for
severe storms across central North Dakota on Friday...as well as a
stiff southerly wind ushering in a hot airmass with afternoon
highs in the 90s.
The strongest CAPE Friday will be over central North Dakota, however
a 10-12 deg H700 cap will be the main challenge for our western
zones. A strong severe storm or two is certainly possible west of
the Red River Valley as the cap erodes. The accompanying cold front
moves across the FGF CWA on Saturday, entering the eastern zones
near peak heating. Although CAPE will not be as strong as on Friday,
1K to 3K J/Kg CAPE values ahead of the front will combine with about
30-kts of deep layer shear...and a few strong or severe storms are
certainly possible as the front moves across the eastern zones near
peak heating. The strongest shear, generally 40 to 50-kts, trails
the instability axis.
The upper air pattern then shifts to NW flow by Sunday. The
departing front will bring a refreshingly cooler airmass for the Sun
through Wed timeframe, when afternoon highs will range from the
upper 60s to mid-70s. The NW flow pattern will persist through mid-
week, with a wave moving across the area Tue-Wed. This will bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area from Tue aftn
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN.
Thunderstorm potential most likely early in TAF period at KDVL.
Radar/satellite/lighting all show this activity progressing
towards the vicinity of the terminals at issuance, so VCTS was
added at KDVL. Less confidence in thunder at other terminals, but
VCSH seemed reasonable late this evening/early Thu morning at KGFK
and KFAR based on signal in guidance. Winds should shift to the
south and prevail 5-10kt at most terminals this evening before
cold front moves through Thursday morning and winds shift back to
the northwest. Due to weak surface gradient associated with
surface high pressure, some terminals may tend to be variable in
wind speed around 5-6kt between frontal passages through the TAF
period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...BP/Speicher
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
719 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Humid and unsettled weather is expected much of the upcoming
week, as tropical moisture and strong June heating work in
concert. Because of the moisture and clouds, daytime highs will
reach near normal for early June, but overnight lows will remain
mild and well above normal. The slow moving nature of the wet
system, could bring excessive rainfall in spots early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 650 PM Wednesday...Upper support increasing west of I-95
as noted by secondary line of re-lit convection, but lower
support is being lost, with lousy SBCAPEs in rain-cooled air and
surface temperatures in the low 70s over portions of Marlboro,
Dillon, and Robeson counties, so a struggle, but good heavy rain
ongoing still, with winds up to 50 kt at 7000 feet measured
recently inside the bulbous CB towers there.
The `severe` wording has been removed from the gridded-based
products but we will need to keep isolated to scattered pop
values in overnight, due to boundaries, moisture, and upper
ripples involved, especially as the air mass takes on a deeper
tropical character.
Temperatures not to drop a great deal overnight, but several
degrees, while dewpoints continue a steady ascent, like a
shallow incline walker. Upper CAPE to creep up a bit overnight,
another sign to keep mentionable pops in for the night period,
and 10 meter winds will level off at 8-11 mph overnight through
Thursday, on average. The breezes and clouds should prevent
widespread fog, but wet ground from rain and partial clearing
may lead to pockets of variably dense mist.
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Atmosphere destabilizing as strong June sun
providing ample insolation even though filtered by scattered cu and
hazy mid level cloud. ML CAPES now ranging from 1000J/Kg along the
NC coast to 2500 J/Kg in the Pee Dee according to RUC analysis
(already exceeding most model guidance). Deep convection has been
failing to materialize until now due to lack of lift. Increasingly
with additional heating thunderstorm development is expected early
this afternoon and some storms could be strong to severe. The bigger
threat will come late afternoon/evening however as shortwave crosses
the mountains and gives rise to a squall line that will move in from
the west, likely by about 21Z. Hi resolution guidance differs with
the track of the squall line and thus which parts of the area stand
to see highest QPF and severe weather potential. Have leaned
slightly more towards the more northern solutions as this matches up
well with the path of the vort center and stronger mid level flow.
Would not be surprised however if the threat is relatively equal
area-wide however as storms may backbuild southwestward into the
higher instability/lower LFCs. After a fairly typical diurnal waning
of activity overnight showers and thunderstorms will once again
merit at least scattered coverage as another, possibly healthier
shortwave crosses the region. At this time the WRF appears to be a
northerly/deeper outlier with this feature. Should it`s solution
gain some momentum however then another severe threat could
materialize.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...an upper-level low will be over eastern
Oklahoma and will only drift to eastern Arkansas by sunrise
Saturday. This low and the southwest flow on it`s south flank in low
to mid-levels will stream in the tropical moisture that has been
over Texas and Gulf of Mexico. Chances of showers and thunderstorm
begin increasing late Thursday night with likely pops Friday into
Friday night. Minimum temperatures are expected to be in the lower
70s with mid 70s at the beaches. Maximum temperatures will reach
the upper 80s inland to the middle 80s on the coast Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...the upper-level low located near Memphis will
meander over the Southeast United States before slowly opening up
and merging with a large scale trough over the eastern United
States. As this larger trough develops a cold front from the north
will drop down across the area on Saturday and finally stall along
and parallel to the coast. A stronger fast moving cold front will
sweep in from the northwest early next week and will stall along the
coast on Wednesday. What this means is that the extended period
will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This will
be the best chance of precipitation for the area in the last month.
Maximum temperatures are expected to mainly be in the middle 80s
with minimum temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower to
mid 70s closer to the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...Another round of evening convection is winding down
across inland NC/SC. As it moves eastward, it will lose convective
characteristics and become mainly stratiform rain and should clear
all terminals by 06Z. Some low-level MVFR/IFR CIGs could remain with
the increased surface moisture. By morning, only a mid-level deck
and thick cirrus will remain. This will persist throughout the day
on Thursday with southerly winds around 10 knots. VFR during the day
with thunderstorms developing after 18Z, again, inland areas will
see the bulk of activity.
Extended Outlook...Scattered diurnal convection will increase in
probability throughout the end of the week and into the weekend.
Expect VFR during the day with periodic MVFR/IFR conditions likely
from the pcpn.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly flow generally remaining in
the 15-20kt range for most of the near term/through Thursday.
Initially this will largely be due to west Atlantic high pressure
but by Thursday a developing piedmont trough will make its own
contribution. South to southwesterly wind waves will be the dominant
wave along with a minor southeasterly swell component.
A cold front will approach from the north and cross the waters
Friday before stalling just to the south and then front will
shift northward and parallel our coast. The front will sit over
the near shore waters through Monday. The winds will be
southwest at 10 to 15 knots Thursday night and will weaken and
slowly back to the east around 5 to 10 knots Friday through
Sunday. Winds on Monday will shift to the north and increase to
15 knots as a cold front to the west will move to the coast on
Tuesday just after this forecast period.
Seas will be 3 to 4 feet Thursday evening and will settle out to 2
to 3 feet on Friday through Sunday. the seas will increase to 3 to 4
feet On Monday with the increased southerly winds due to an
approaching cold front.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...Bacon/Colby
SHORT TERM...Hawkins
LONG TERM...Keebler/RH
AVIATION...21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Updated the forecast a couple times this evening, with lowering
chances of showers/thunderstorms south of I-72 rest of tonight,
and ending the severe thunderstorm watch in southeast IL at 730
pm. Did have some severe storms with heavy rains too from Lincoln
south since late morning into early evening, and these storms have
shifted south of CWA by 730 pm. Lows overnight in the lower 60s
from I-74 ne and mid 60s sw half of CWA, with upper 60s by
Lawrenceville.
Radar mosaic shows brunt of showers and thunderstorms have shifted
south of a Pittsfield to Taylorville to Terre Haute line, with
heaviest rains south of CWA over southern IL near or south of I-64
closer to outflow boundaries and unstable air mass. Latest CAM
models continue to show showers and thunderstorms diminishing over
southern CWA rest of tonight, with just isolated convection
far southern CWA by late tonight and early Wed morning. The latest
few hourly runs of the HRRR model and NAM nest models are showing
some fog development late tonight over sw CWA, sw of a Peoria to
Lincoln to Decatur line, especially over areas that received
rainfall today. Another patchy of fog from marine layer off Lake
MI to drift ssw overnight, but stay along and ne of Dwight and
Kankakee.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Multiple surface boundaries in an unstable airmass is resulting in
several small areas of thunderstorms this afternoon. A trough axis
draped across Central Illinois has offered some focus for the
convection, but the actual colder temps are a little further
north, with more of dewpoint discontinuity between. Forecast
issues in the short term surround the outflow boundaries and the
frontal position through the next 24 hrs. 18Z NAMNest at least
keying in on rather broad E/W orientation to convection from the
Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio River Valley tonight.
SPC SVR Watches line up nicely with the same presentation.
Eventually the storms in sim reflectivity take on a segmented
look before surging southward, looking more like a weakening QLCS
with bowing segments, into southern IL around midnight. Expect
the severe threat to last a little while, but expect maybe a
little loss of steam after sunset. However, a significantly more
stable airmass is not moving into the region, even with a trough
and/or the front to the north. Tomorrow is as complex...with the
trough axis shifting south and high pressure trying to build into
the northern half of the state. However, mid levels are still
warm, as well as the expected sfc temperatures. SBCAPE tomorrow
still in the 2000-2500 J/kg range by the afternoon, with the axis
across the southern third of the state. But that location varies
with models, and given how much the models struggled with today...
expect thunderstorms being influenced by multiple outflow
remnants will not show up with any confidence this early either
way. Going with a pretty generic chance of thunderstorms across
the southern portion of the state.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Tomorrow night will rely highly on the evolution of the day, but
expect an increasing influence from the high building in behind
the front. Models are relatively dry after 00z, but little to no
confidence in that ultimately, particularly in the south, given
the trend this evening. A very slow moving upper low will drift
across the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the weekend.
Through Friday night, the majority of the precipitation remains
south of ILX CWA...but by Saturday, start to see the impact of
that storm as shortwaves pivot around that low and into the
region. Varied amounts of coverage in the models given the
difference in location of the upper low varies from the Ohio River
Valley to the Gulf Coast. As a result, forecast through the
weekend and into the first of the week is dominated by chance pops
and continued warm temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Broken mid/high clouds remain behind convection this evening. Have
mainly VFR conditions... with a tempo for MVFR vis in the predawn
hours. Llvl moisture enhanced by the recent rainfall has the
dewpoints in the 60-65F range, and close to the overnight mins.
Highest RH hits as well as a weak ridge axis and winds will not
only be light and variable... will likely see calm for a few
hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1041 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
The line of storms across the northern portion of the CWA has
bowed out or had stronger winds on the lowest couple of scans at
times as it moves southeast. However, observed winds have been
closer to 30 to 40 mph range with few reports of wind damage
received so far. There still remains a chance of strong to severe
gusts or possibly marginal hail over the next hour or two as the
line moves southeast. However, the thunderstorms have cleared the
4 northwest counties and the watch as been dropped for those
locations. Grids have been updated for this and to account for
the latest observations.
UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
Bowing line segment moving from northern KY into portions of East
KY remains the main concern this evening. This line should
continue moving southeast into the area, but with instability
decreasing toward the VA border it may tend to weaken over time
especially considering loss of daytime heating. Other
thunderstorms with supercell structures remain a threat for large
hail and damaging wind gusts across the KY Coalfield counties for
the next couple of hours. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect for most of the CWA.
UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
Grids were updated for radar trends and the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 334. Recently, the intensity of the cells is to weaken as
they move toward lower instability in locations further east that
have lower instability. Additional upstream convection is also
being monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
The forecast for the short term period was challenging. Several
different forecast models that were looked at were producing
different solutions with regards to timing of new convective
development and evolution to the north of and across eastern
Kentucky, especially through around 0Z tonight. That being said,
liked the HRRR solution the best for the rest of this afternoon
and this evening, so that model was used for that portion of the
forecast. Some adjustments were made to match up better with
neighboring offices. The HRRR and NAM12 models both had much
higher probabilities of rain for the late evening and overnight
periods, which was the preferred solution. So, ultimately it was
decided to go with a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms
through early this evening, before ramping up the chances
overnight. The possibility still exists for a few storms to
produce damaging wind gusts this evening, especially north of the
Mountain Parkway and along and north of the I-64. Rain chances
will last through the end of the week and beyond, as a frontal
boundary stalls out over the area. We will also be closely
monitoring the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding to
end the week, as the front stalls out and a steady stream of Gulf
of Mexico moisture flows into the region.
Temperatures in general will be above normal for the next couple
of days. Lows the next two nights are expected to be in the low to
mid 60s. Highs on Thursday should max out in the lower 80s across
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
The models are in decent agreement with the upper level pattern
for the extended. A closed low aloft located over the ARKLATEX
region will slowly make its way eastward, progressing over the
Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley into early next week. It
will then start to phase into the northern stream flow, becoming
an amplified trough. By Tuesday afternoon, this trough will span
to be the length of the entire east coast. Zonal flow will then
take hold briefly early on Wednesday over eastern Kentucky before
another shortwave trough is expected to advance towards the Ohio
Valley.
At the surface, a stalled front over the southern portion of the
state will continue to weaken Friday. Another low pressure system
over the ARKLATEX region will then move over the Tennessee Valley,
clipping southern Kentucky, through the weekend into Monday. A
cold front will quickly follow and progress over the Ohio Valley
through Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, this front is expected to
pass to the south of the Commonwealth and high pressure will begin
to take hold over the central CONUS.
The upper level and surface patterns mentioned above will lead to
daily chances of showers through Monday. With slow storm motions
expected as well as PWATs from GFS model soundings between 1.6 to
2.0 inches through Monday, the potential for localized flooding
continues to be a concern. At this time, between 0.25 to 1.5
inches of rainfall is expected during this time as well.
Furthermore, thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours through Monday. The better
instability, according to the GFS, looks to be on Friday and
Monday. With FROPA and surface high pressure taking hold, showers
will begin tapering off early Tuesday and drier conditions are
expected to return midweek.
High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s and lower
80s through the extended period. The exception to this will be
Tuesday, where highs are expected to be in the mid 70s due to
FROPA. Low temperatures will be in the 60s through Monday morning.
FROPA Tuesday will lead to cooler lows into midweek, with mid to
upper 50s expected by Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019
Scattered showers and storms will affect the TAF sites initially
with a line of storms moving into the far NW portion of the area
between 0Z and 1Z. This line of storms with possible bowing
segments and gusts upwards of 30 kt should affect KSYM and may
persist further south and southeast to affect KJKL and KSJS as
well around 2Z to 4Z timeframe. The line of storms should also
affect KLOZ and KSME though only thunder on station was included
for KSYM as confidence in it holding together further south was
not high enough just yet. IFR or MVFR vis and CIGS will occur
briefly in direct hits from thunderstorms. An overall downward
trend in CIGS into the MVFR range prevailing is expected for a few
hours between 10Z and 17Z as the lower levels saturate.
Improvements back into the VFR range should occur in all areas
around 18Z.
Based on current trends in radar and model data, only isolated
showers or storms are expected to occur this afternoon into early
this evening. The main push of rain in the near term is expected
to occur from late this evening through the overnight hours, as a
frontal boundary sinks slowly southward and eventually stalls over
the area. VFR conditions will prevail until more widespread
showers and storms form this evening and tonight. Once that
happens, any given TAF site that experiences a storm or intense
shower could see brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. This
pattern should persist through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Even the strongest convection is now becoming elevated, with 30-40
mph gusts in the outflow getting to be the worst case scenario.
Will allow WW 332 to expire on schedule, but will leave 334 in place
south of I-64 as there are still at least a few storms to go
through. Not expecting SVR in the pure sense, but marginally gusty
winds are still possible. Thanks to JKL and SPC for coord.
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Trimming back WW 332 as the last bit of strong convection is right
along the Ohio River from Louisville west to near Tell City. Not
going to write these storms off just yet as the downdraft CAPE
remains impressive, but the window seems to be closing on severe
potential. Will let 334 ride across the Bluegrass region, taking
care not to get too far out of sync with PAH or JKL. Have refined
hourly POPs and QPF, and if the weakening trend can continue that
should mitigate the heavy rain and flood threat.
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
A couple east-west bands of thunderstorms now situated just north of
the I-64 corridor and extending well back into Missouri, with a
general ESE track on most of the cells. Every now and then a segment
tries to drop harder SE and that is where we have been seeing
stronger winds as the storms try to move into very strong DCAPE
exceeding 1200 J/kg.
WW 332 continues until 03Z and WW 334 over the Bluegrass until 05Z.
Our main SVR concern is with the leading line of storms, but will
not yet clear the watch with additional convection yet to move
through. Another developing issue as the night goes on will be the
potential for flash flooding, especially as some locations get a
second or third round of heavy rain. Not enough confidence to pin
down what will be a narrow corridor of heavy rain, as the line will
likely be progressive in many locations and hang up in others.
Therefore will handle it with short-fuse warnings as the general
heavy rain threat is already messaged.
Issued at 415 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Atmosphere has destabilized and storms have initiated over Illinois
and Indiana. Decent focus from just north of Vincennes to near
Seymour. Strong instability in place with sfc-based CAPE over 3000
J/kg, and well over 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE across all of
southern Indiana and most of north central Kentucky. Main threat
will be damaging winds, primarily of the pulse variety, but there is
just enough shear that we can`t rule out enough organization for
storms to develop a cold pool and start diving southward. Southern
boundary of WW 332 may be generous by a row of counties to cover
that possibility.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Current synoptic setup has a cut-off low over New Mexico with weak
upper ridging to the north and zonal upper-level flow over the Ohio
Valley. Isolated afternoon pop up showers and thunderstorms are
still a possibility today as we sit within a moist and unstable air
mass with CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. Deep level shear is less
impressive, which would suggest that any storms that do develop
would be pulsey in nature. Hazards associated with any isolated
afternoon/early evening storms would be brief heavy rain, local
gusty winds and possible hail. Surface winds from the southwest will
continue to gust into the low 20mph range until near sunset.
A 500 mb shortwave, currently over the Great Lakes, will travel east
throughout the evening. Models are in fair agreement with a line of
storms moving south into southern Indiana later this evening into
the overnight hours. The 05/17Z HRRR brings this line into southern
Indiana by 06/00Z, but shows a weakening trend as it moves into
central KY. The 3K NAM is a bit slower with a showtime of 06/02Z,
but agrees with the weakening trend. SPC has placed a portion of our
western southern Indiana counties with an Enhanced Risk and the rest
of our forecast area within a Slight Risk with the most likely
hazard being damaging winds. Short range models show most of this
activity moving out of our area by Thursday morning.
We`ll remain in an unstable environment Thursday as the cut-off low
edges closer from the west bringing continued chances of showers and
thunderstorms enhanced by diurnal instability. Forecast soundings
show a drastic decrease in wind speed aloft, with speeds less than
20 knots up to 400mb. This will result in slow moving storms, which
could pose localized flooding issues anywhere heavy rain should
occur. Expect to see broken to overcast skies with max temps
reaching into the low 80s with dewpoints sitting uncomfortably in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Thursday Night...
Scattered showers and storms will likely continue into at least the
first part of the Thursday night time frame, until instability is
lost. The pulse severe threat will likely be diminishing, however
the localized Flash Flooding threat will likely linger a bit as
storms will be nearly stationary and should be quite efficient
rainfall producers.
Friday - Monday...
The well-advertised cutoff low will move into and wobble around the
TN Valley through the weekend. This feature will provide focus for
scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend as
waves of energy rotate around the parent low. Waves of deeper
moisture will also rotate into the region at times, providing
precipitable water values up around 2" at times. A localized Flash
Flooding threat is expected to continue during this time, and may
increase with each round of storms, especially for areas that see
repeated instances of heavy rain.
Given extensive cloud cover and plenty of precipitation, look for
small diurnal temperature ranges through the weekend. Highs should
mostly be in the upper 70s and low 80s, while lows should mostly be
in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Monday Night - Wednesday...
The parent low will be over the Gulf Coast region by this time, and
will likely be swept by a northern stream shortwave trough. This
will help to push the deep moisture out of our region, and will also
swing a notable cold front through our region Monday night. As a
result, we`ll see a return to dry and pleasant conditions through
mid week. Highs are expected to run a bit below normal in the upper
70s to around 80. Meanwhile, lows will drop into the upper 50s and
low 60s as dew points trend lower in the Canadian origin airmass.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
Convection over southern Indiana will drop southward into HNB, SDF,
and LEX over the next few hrs. Have included TEMPO for MVFR vis, as
we expect any IFR restrictions to be very short-lived and the
ceilings will stay VFR. Expect storms to die down late this evening,
with light winds and mid-level ceilings. Enough trapped moisture by
daybreak to drop ceilings into MVFR, with a very close call for fuel-
alternate. Will only take SDF into fuel-alternate, keeping LEX and
HNB just above 2000 feet for the morning. Ceilings should lift to
VFR early in the afternoon, with enough of a storm chance near a
quasi-stationary boundary to support VCTS.
BWG should remain high and dry this evening, and VFR on Thu morning,
but will get in on the possible convection in the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...CG
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
850 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Convection over the mid state earlier in the evening has
dissipated with the loss of diurnal support, but we may not be out
of the woods just yet. Ongoing strong to severe convection has
crossed the OH River Valley to our north, and is heading
south/southeast towards the area. CAMs continue to show rapid
weakening once storms approach the TN border, and this is
supported by a instability gradient in southern KY with dropping
values into north central TN. Most of the better MLCAPE above
1000 J/kg sits north of the mid state, along with better deep
layer shear as well. Convection is slightly ahead of CAM timing,
so there may be a few stronger storms that sneak across the
border around midnight. But, have largely stuck with CAM consensus
with only chance pops in the northern zones this evening/early
overnight. May need to adjust again later this evening should
convection hold together in KY and model support ramps up as well.
For now, left pops and the previous forecast largely unchanged,
but adjusted slightly to account for possible showers and
thunderstorms getting into northern zones around midnight. Will
continue to monitor trends and update as needed.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Earlier cells are gradually dissipating as we
head into the evening, and the HRRR only shows widely scattered
echoes continuing overnight and Thursday morning. Our rain chances
will increase during the afternoon tomorrow as a weak surface
boundary to our north edges closer to Middle Tennessee.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1039 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic as low
pressure with an associated cold front moves through the Great
Lakes. The cold front is forecast to pass through our region on
Thursday, followed by high pressure for Friday into the weekend.
Broad low pressure and another cold front are expected to approach
slowly from the west early in the new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9:30 Update...
Convection remains fairly isolated and generally low in intensity.
Small cells have occasionally been developing in the southern half
of the region. Radar rainfall estimates have locally exceeded 1.5
inches for training cells in Burlington County. There is still a
chance of locally heavy rainfall the next few hours as the cells
that have developed, while small, have shown some training
characteristics. The main area to watch for this will be near and
along the I95 corridor where a couple of cells have developed
recently over northeast MD and northern DE, moving northeast.
While a strong thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, the
severe weather threat largely appears to have passed. We will
also have to watch for patchy fog development tonight with
plenty of residual low level moisture.
6:30 Update...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to PoPs to
account for recent trends. Bulk of activity so far has been over
southern Delmarva. From a hydro perspective, this is not too
problematic as FFG values in that area are very high. In terms of
severe weather, we have seen one area of storms become borderline
severe in southern DE and into far southern NJ. Expecting most
convection from here to generally be sub-severe, however a few
stronger storms are possible with still a chance for one or two to
approach severe limits with gusty winds. Also noting some guidance
such as the HRRR shows activity filling in further north quite a bit
later tonight, so we will have to watch for this as heavy rainfall
tolerance levels drop dramatically towards the more urban parts of
the area. It does not appear that much if any of a nocturnal
inversion will develop this evening, so with dew points remaining
high and forcing becoming a little better, it is possible we could
get new convective initiation even as temperatures cool off a little
after dark. Previous discussion follows.
High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic, and low
pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly pass to the north tonight.
This will drag a cold front towards the region this evening, but the
cold front itself will not cross through until Thursday. Out ahead
of the front, some mid-level shortwave energy will spawn a secondary
low over the southern Appalachians, and this low will pass through
Delmarva and southern New Jersey this evening.
A hot, humid, and unstable airmass is over the region, with surface
dewpoints well in the 60s throughout, and in the upper 60s to around
70 in southern New Jersey and Delmarva.
This is resulting in upwards of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and SBCAPE
across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and 500-1000 J/kg across
the northern half of New Jersey and into southeast Pennsylvania.
PWATs are generally 1.5-1.7 inches in the southern portions of the
forecast area, but should climb up to around 2 inches this evening.
This sets the stage for a round of potential severe thunderstorms,
as well as locally heavy rain. Based on latest trends, the area of
heaviest rain would affect Delmarva and southeast New Jersey, where
the highest instability and highest dewpoints are. However, latest
Flash Flood Guidance values suggests it would take 2-3" of rain in 1
hour; and 3-4 inches of rain in both 3 hours and 6 hours for Flash
Flooding to occur. Since storm total QPF is generally on the order
of 1-2" (though locally higher amounts are possible), do not think
this will lead to flash flooding, so will not issue a Flash Flood
Watch. Models are also indicating a potential swath of heavy rain
just north of Philadelphia, so it is possible for some urban
flooding this evening.
Convection is possible in northern new Jersey (north of I-195), the
Lehigh Valley, and the southern Poconos, but does not look to be as
organized as the convection down south.
With loss of diurnal heating after sunset, instability drops off
fairly quickly. Heavy rain still possible, but the severe threat
drops off.
Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly the
southern half of the forecast area through midnight or so.
Once the precip ends, it remains warm and humid into Thursday
morning. Fog and stratus likely to develop.
Lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface cold front slowly works it way across the region on
Thursday. However, there does not appear to be much upper level
support with its passage. Although it remains quite warm and humid
ahead of the front, there may not be much energy with which to work
to fire off much convection. Will keep PoPs capped at slight chance
to low end chance.
Going through the day, cooler and dryer air filters into the region
behind the front, but pretty much only for the northern half of the
CWA.
Highs once again in the mid and upper 80s south and east of I-95,
and in the lower 80s north and west.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night through Sunday...
High pressure will build in to our north through Friday leading to a
continuing drying of the airmass with a sky that will generally be
mainly clear to partly cloudy. Highs Friday will mostly be in the
low 80s however an E/NE flow around the high will keep it a bit
cooler along the coast and it will also be a bit cooler over the
southern Poconos.
Surface high pressure builds S/E from Ontario/Quebec into New
England through the course of Friday night and Saturday with an
upper level ridge setting up over Ontario. These features should
continue to dominate our weather through Saturday leading to plenty
of sunshine with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. However we will have to keep an eye on a large upper level
low with associated tropical moisture and rainfall over the
southeastern states but at this point forecast models continue to
indicate this should stay suppressed to our south through at least
Saturday.
Saturday night through Sunday, the upper low over the SE opens up
with the upper ridge over the Great Lakes starting to slowly weaken
and shift east...becoming centered just off the coast by late
Sunday. Expect the area should still remain largely protected by the
ridge through with mainly dry weather through the weekend. That
said, latest guidance does bring the moisture over the SE a little
farther north by late Sunday so will maintain the mention of chance
POPs over the Delmarva.
Sunday night through Wednesday...
In the big picture, the weather pattern becomes more unsettled once
again next week as a large upper level trough digs S/E from Canada
towards the northeastern US and also interacts with the upper trough
and tropical moisture over the SE. Depending on exactly how these
features interact, which is currently uncertain, will determine the
more specific details of the forecast in terms of how much rain
falls and when. However expect increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by Monday across the area as extensive moisture is
advected northward up the coast in a deep layer southerly flow.
Still many days out but the concern is the moisture will be of
tropical origins with PWATS potentially exceeding 2 inches so any
showers/storms could be heavy.
Showery/stormy weather has a good chance of continuing Monday night
into Tuesday as a frontal zone moving in from the west associated
with the Canadian upper level trough interacts with the extensive
moisture along the east coast. Main question will be how quickly
this moves through and again this will depend, among other things,
on the interaction of the digging Canadian / northern stream upper
trough with the SE CONUS upper trough. If a wave develops along the
front near or just south of the area a more prolonged period of
heavy rainfall will be possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week as opposed to if it sweeps through faster as a more progressive
cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the next several hours, however, the thunder should remain fairly
isolated. Low stratus and patchy fog will likely develop tonight due
to residual moisture. Confidence is low, however, on the coverage
and extent of ceiling and visibility reductions. SW winds around
10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt or less.
Thursday...Morning fog/stratus gives way to VFR conditions.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon, but confidence is low. West
winds 10 kt or less, becoming NW in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots
becoming NE late at night.
Friday...VFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.
Friday night...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots or
less.
Saturday...VFR. East to southeast wind around 10 knots.
Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. East wind around 10 knots.
Sunday night through Monday...Increasing clouds with showers and
storms possible by Monday along with associated restrictions. SE
winds 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Late evening update to expand the Small Craft Advisory to
include the Delaware Bay. Observations show gusts above 25 kt
even on the upper Delaware Bay. This portion of the SCA will
continue through 7 AM when winds look to diminish. SCA remains
in effect for the coastal ocean waters for tonight and into
Thursday afternoon, as southerly winds range from 15-20 kt with
25- 30 kt gusts. Showers and thunderstorms continue to be
possible overnight, with thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of
34 kt possible, as well as torrential rainfall.
Winds shift to the W-SW at 10-15 kt late Thursday, and seas subside
to 3-4 feet.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Monday...Wave heights could reach near 5 feet
Saturday night into Sunday as E/NE winds increase with gusts to near
or just over 20 knots. Otherwise, no marine headlines expected.
RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents continues through Thursday at the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches due to the strong southerly flow.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Fitzsimmons
Near Term...MPS/O`Brien
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Fitzsimmons
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/MPS/O`Brien
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will diminish overnight before a frontal boundary
approaches from the north Thursday. The weak cold front will
drop south into the area by the end of the week resulting in a
continuation of unsettled weather into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Wednesday...
Showers and some still fairly strong thunderstorms persisting
across the eastern OH valley, mainly northeastern KY late this
evening. Question is how far east will they survive and in what
form. CAMS (HRRR, RAP and NAM Nest) do not have a good handle
on current activity with a much weaker (nearly non-existent on
the HRRR) cluster of storms than what is out there now. But all
are generally suggesting a more southeast then east trajectory
of any activity overnight, possibly affecting our southwestern
counties by 06z or 07z. SPC not seeming to be too concerned with
strengthening with no MCD for a further expansion of the Watch
over eastern KY as of this time. With CAPES falling off rapidly it
makes good sense. Did not make many changes to the grids
leaving chance pops in the west but may need updating if trends
do persist.
Previous valid discussion...
As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday...
On Thursday, the baroclinic zone will move slowly southward
through the region as a wave of low pressure move east along the
boundary. While the instability and shear profiles are not
impressive, there will be enough convergence with the boundary
to create scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly west of the
Blue Ridge and south of route 460. The SPC Day 2 convective
outlook keeps the entire forecast area in general thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will vary from the lower 70s in
the northern mountains to the upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday...
A stalled frontal boundary will be draped over Virginia and North
Carolina throughout this forecast period, while high pressure over
the Northeast wedges southward along the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge. An area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi River
Valley will continue to funnel moisture northward from the Gulf of
Mexico toward this stalled frontal boundary. As a result, a wet and
unsettled period with plentiful clouds and occasional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms should persist across the Mid Atlantic.
The best chance of thunderstorms will likely be along and south of
the cool wedge boundary during the afternoon and evening hours.
Although the wind shear profiles indicate some severe potential,
instability is more questionable given the prevalent cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...
The wet and unsettled conditions will continue through the early
portion of the week as an area of low pressure slowly trudges
eastward toward the Southeast. The stalled frontal boundary will
remain over the Mid Atlantic, which will continue to focus the Gulf
moisture. The cool wedge should weaken as high pressure moves
offshore by Sunday night. Plentiful cloud cover and waves of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as a cold front arrives
from the Ohio River Valley. Models disagree on how quickly this cold
front will cross over the Mid Atlantic and shove all the tropical
moisture and the stalled frontal boundary offshore. The latest GFS
ends the rain by Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF does not end the
rain until Wednesday. Due to the repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, the threat for localized flooding will be maintained
in the HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
An upper level disturbance will move east across the region
tonight. An MCS moved through the CWA this morning and resulted
in relatively stable conditions during normal peak
heating/insolation, thus resulting in redevelopment of
thunderstorms all east of our CWA. A mesoscale bubble high has
dominated our region most of the afternoon and evening leaving
VFR conditions for the most part.
Embedded disturbances in a near zonal mid-level flow will keep
the threat for disturbances and additional thunderstorms/showers
in the region overnight. Currently watching a developing
convective complex across Kentucky, which some of the short
range models bring into the western part of our CWA around or
shortly after midnight. Have included VCTS at KBLF, KBCB, and
KLWB in the 05Z-08Z time frame to account for this possibility.
MVFR BR may develop in areas that see rain overnight. Low clouds
showers spread into western areas with a light upslope west to
southwest flow along with VCSH or -SHRA during the morning
hours. Aviation conditions Thursday should be rather poor in the
west, somewhat better east of the Blue Ridge. Winds will remain
west to southwest through the period at 5-10kts.
/Confidence in Forecast Parameters/
Ceilings - Moderate,
Visibilities - Moderate,
Winds - Moderate to High,
Thunderstorm Threat - Low.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
A stalled front/baroclinic zone lingering near or just south of
the area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure
aloft through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result
in an extended period of unsettled weather - with sub- VFR
conditions likely in/near associated areas of showers/storms.
Periods of fog/low clouds will also persist into the weekend.
Overall, aviation conditions will be highly variable in both
time and space into/through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/PM/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A few showers and thunderstorms linger this evening across parts
of the Big Country southeast of Abilene, but these are not
expected to affect the KABI terminal. Other showers and
thunderstorms, developing from eastern New Mexico across west and
northwest Texas, will move east into our area after 03Z, and
linger across the area into the overnight hours. The highest
coverage is expected mainly across the northern half of our area.
Carrying Tempo groups at KABI and KSJT for TSRA between 03Z and
06Z. Brief reductions in visibility and ceiling are possible in
locally heavy rain accompanying the showers and storms. Will
monitor for potential gust front development at the leading edge
of the convection, and add wind gusts if needed. Some cloud debris
from the overnight convection will linger into Thursday morning.
Additional development of scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Thursday afternoon across the southeastern part of our area.
Carrying a VCTS mention at KJCT after 20Z. Outside of convective
activity, winds will be primarily from the southeast at 5-8 knots
tonight. Light winds on Thursday morning should become west to
northwest in the afternoon.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
A few storms developing along an old outflow boundary draped across
the Big Country this afternoon, with visible satellite loops showing
a little cu field developing along another boundary from San Angelo
to Junction. Meanwhile, the main upper level trough axis finally
shifting northeast across New Mexico. best lift will be associated
to the northwest where the best upper level support will be. Latest
HRRR and TTU_WRF showing the same basic concept, with the most
widespread activity developing and moving across mainly the Big
Country, perhaps as far south as San Angelo. More scattered activity
is likely farther south. Will run the highest POPs tonight across
the north and slightly less south towards the I-10 corridor. Storms
exit to the east overnight, with some chance of redevelopment across
the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland on Thursday afternoon in a
continued unstable air mass. Otherwise, temperatures are not
changing a whole lot, with lows in the mid/upper 60s and highs in
the mid/upper 80s.
07
LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
An upper level disturbance will move east and on out of the
region on Thursday night. This will drag the remainder of the
shower and thunderstorm activity off to the east with it. Then,
high pressure builds across the region allowing sunny skies and
warmer temperatures to develop. West Central Texas will be in the
mid 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Then, on Sunday, the ridge recedes
and showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for the
early part of next week.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 64 85 64 87 / 70 30 20 5
San Angelo 64 89 65 90 / 50 20 5 0
Junction 68 92 68 93 / 40 20 5 5
Brownwood 66 86 66 87 / 60 30 20 5
Sweetwater 63 84 64 87 / 70 20 5 0
Ozona 63 89 66 91 / 30 5 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$