Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
709 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure well off the East Coast and low pressure west of the area will keep southerly flow over the region through the weekend and into early next week. Moisture will reach a peak this weekend with showers and thunderstorms...possible heavy at times...likely through the weekend. Drier air is expected to return to the area in the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The strongest instability early this evening appears to be along the Savannah river north into the central Midlands. Convection moving east-northeast out of the CSRA into the south Midlands early this evening. Laps soundings support marginal severe winds and hail along with locally heavy rain with precipitable water near 2 inches and effective shear near 30 knots. Lowered pops in the Piedmont and north Midlands as moisture more limited and short wave energy mainly north of the region into NC...convection in the Upstate limited and HRRR not indicating advection southeast. Pops diminish late evening through the overnight hours with loss of heating and passing of the shortwave energy but with abundant low level moisture in place will continue to hold a slight chance of rain through morning. Convective debris clouds will limit radiational cooling and conditions are favorable for stratus to redevelop late tonight which will support lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday and Thursday night...Upper level trough in the southwestern US will be slowly progressing eastward across the southern Plains during the day and into the lower MS River Valley Thursday night. At the surface weak low pressure over eastern TX will keep southerly low level flow in place and combine with the southerly turning mid and upper level flow to continue pumping Gulf moisture northward. On Friday the upper level trough will develop into an upper low with the surface low tracking into the central Gulf States. This will strengthen the southerly flow with reinforcing moisture overtaking the area. With the southerly flow a warm front is expected to develop Friday and slowly move northward across the area. Friday night the upper low will continue moving toward the area with the surface low becoming nearly stationary near the AL/TN border. Couple of concerns through the short term all around convective activity and potential for heavy rain. Models indicate moderate instability through the period and with divergence aloft increasing Friday into Friday night expect the highest potential for strong...possibly severe...thunderstorms during that time frame. Heavy rain will also be possible especially Friday and Friday night when models continue indicating pwat values near 2 inches plus a difluent upper pattern. Localized flooding may occur. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for daytime highs with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper low will remain nearly stationary over the weekend then slowly eject eastward early next week with ample moisture from the Gulf over the region through Monday. Have increased pops through the period with with likely pops through the weekend then slowly decreasing Tuesday through Wednesday. Main concern remains heavy rain potential and localized flooding over the weekend and early next week with a lower potential for damaging wind. Temperatures through the long term will be near normal. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered convection early this evening with focus across the CSRA and south Midlands. Brief restrictions possible at all terminals through about 02z associated with thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible 25 to 30 knots with convection otherwise light and variable winds. Abundant low-level moisture and south flow overnight will will likely result in MVFR/IFR ceilings toward morning. Strong low level jet suggests stratus and lower threat for fog. Highest confidence of restrictions overnight at AGS and DNL. Morning ceilings should improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again late in the day. Winds mainly southwest 5 to 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning stratus potential, and increasing chance for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, through the period. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1027 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An isolated shower is still possible Thursday over the south and east. Then, an extended period of dry weather will arrive and last through the weekend. We are monitoring a potential risk for heavy rain early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Can`t find anything over 25 dbZ over the CWA right now. Stuff really fell apart. Even the convection to the NW is diving into CLE and only the anvil rain is headed our way. Have dropped PoPs to chcs at most for the rest of the night. Front still coming, so can`t remove it. Only a minor tweak to very near term temps, but mins look on track for a mild and slightly muggy night as the dewpoints don`t drop much, even in the NW. Will leave fog out for now as it shouldn`t be widespread with lots of clouds around. Prev... Lightning far off to our west at 00Z. Just weak and weakening showers over north-central PA, and further weakening is forecast. TSRA across LE is along the good wind shift and right underneath a healthy vort max/trough aloft. At this point, it appears like taht stuff would be our best chc to get thunder. The heating is gone and even that area of convection is moving into a depression of CAPE on the sfc plots from SPC mesoanalysis and RAP fcsts. Have removed thunder for most of the area for most of the night. Nudged PoPs downward in the SE as well. Prev... Broken line of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms crossed the Alleghenies and is moving through central portions of the CWA at mid afternoon. Brief downpours are accompanying the northern portion of the line crossing the North Central mountains, but little else as CAPEs are limited to a few hundred J/Kg. A trailing line of showers and embedded thunderstorms along the lake breeze will move into western areas later this afternoon, and with PW in the 1.5 to 2" range, there can be brief downpours from these as well. The cold front will slowly track southeastward overnight, bisecting central PA by morning. Upward vertical motions quite weak with the front by that time, with only isolated shra along and ahead of it early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across far southern and southeastern zones through early afternoon before the front exits to the southeast. Despite the chance of showers, most areas will be dry on Thursday, beginning the trend of a several day stretch of dry weather, an unusual occurrence over the past 18 months in central PA. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The cold front will push slowly southeast across the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of CPA during the day on Thursday. There will be a limited chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as drier/lower PW air starts to arrive from the northwest. The drying trend will continue Thursday night into Friday, as high pressure migrates eastward from the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models are in good agreement entering the long term period. Dry air and a building ridge over the northern half of the central US will dominate the weather pattern through the Mid Atlantic this weekend. This will keep the region dry and temperatures around normal. An upper level low moving underneath the ridge will shift southward into the Gulf states. A northward moving ripple of moisture will bring a decent chance for showers Sunday night into Monday. Following this there will be an upper level trough moving through the Great lakes that will bring another chance for showers Monday into Tuesday. There is some discrepancy as far as placement and timing but POPS through early next work week will continue to increase. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Minor adjustments made to the TAFS late this evening. Not much left on the radar. Isolated showers and storms did fire up here a short time ago across Somerset County and far southeastern Lancaster County. Otherwise the main area of showers and isolated storms over the southern tier of NY. Earlier discussion below. For the 00Z TAF package, main change was to adjust for current and fcst showers and isolated thunderstorms. Conditions will lower later tonight into Thursday morning. Other change was to add some groups later in the period. The cold front will drop southeast of PA later Thursday aft. Some showers will linger into the afternoon across the south. Overall some dry weather for several days after today. .Outlook... Fri-Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...A slight chance of showers and storms, mainly south and west. Mon...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Clouds are slow to diminish over northeast Minnesota and the RAP has a reasonable handle on them and does eventually clear most areas out. However, we expect stratus to redevelop over and near Lake Superior, possibly making it into the Iron Range and inland in northern Wisconsin as well. Fog will again be possible and it may be dense in spots. We`ve been watching an area of showers and a few thunderstorms moving through northern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Most of the northern portion of this complex has weakened. Guidance is mixed on whether or not it will hold together by the time it gets to our western zones. At this time we did keep the forecast dry for tonight but will watch over the next 1 to 2 hours. We may have to add a small POP but we expect any rainfall to be light. We did expand on the mention of showers on Thursday as a low level frontal boundary makes its way into the Northland. There isn`t great agreement on where it will end up so we have a generous area of low POPs for now and we`ll update once we have a better idea on how far southeast it will make it. There could be a thunderstorm as well as there is sufficient CAPE. The lack of forcing will be a limiting factor so we kept just showers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 334 CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 A weak area of low pressure was moving over northern Minnesota at 19Z/2pm. A vorticity maxima was also moving through the same area and this was enough lift to generates a few showers from Hibbing to Ely. This vort max will continue to move across northeast Minnesota through the afternoon. Since the showers are diffuse in nature, will carry small pops for the rest of the afternoon along the north shore of Lake Superior and inland. The surface low departs tonight as does the upper level support, allowing high pressure to build over the region. The sky will clear in the evening and combine with light winds to allow fog to develop. The bulk of the fog should be found over the eastern two thirds of the forecast area. Clouds will spread in from Lake Superior tonight and may keep fog from becoming too deep. With the cloud cover and fog, expect some cool temps tonight, generally in the 40s, with lower 50s from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls. On Thursday, one more piece of vorticity is progged to move over the region in the afternoon. However, there are some model differences with the strength of the forcing and the amount of moisture to work with. Forecast soundings indicate a dry profile below 5K ft. Will have some small pops in the afternoon where indications are the best moisture source will be, albeit sparse. Max temps will be in the 80s, 70s in the Arrowhead, and cooler near Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Upper level ridging builds across the area Thursday night, while a warm, southwest flow at the surface is expected ahead of a developing area of low pressure in the Northern Plains. Minimum temps will be in the upper 40s near bodies of water, to the upper 50s. Friday and Friday night to be quiet across the area today, with increasing southerly winds and above normal temperatures. Have increased Max T`s slightly so the west and southwest fringes of the forecast area are in the mid 80s, with 80s and upper 70s most other inland areas. The north shore remains cooler yet with mid 60s near Lake Superior. Saturday through Monday an upper low moves across the area, bringing a narrow plume of moisture and lift across the area, mainly in the Saturday night and Sunday time frame. The system moves somewhat slowly at first, so we may have a period of training/repeat storms. The PW values will be higher than normal but nothing extreme, so the storms should produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Considering the southwest upper flow at 20-30kts, individual storms may not be particularly slow moving, but the repeat storms could be an issue, and may produce localized flooding. Saturday appears to be another warm one, and while I do not have it quite as warm as Friday right now, if the storm slows down any more it may be closer to the Friday temperatures. Sunday will definitely be cooler though, with highs only in the mid 60s-mid 70s. Monday we will be on the back side of this system, with northwest flow and chances for diurnally driven showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday as well. Tuesday and Wednesday it appears to have another chance of showers and thunderstorms as yet another shortwave moves through the area. There is very poor agreement between models, so have maintained a blended approach with small pops both days, but I expect to be able to refine this before too much longer. Temperatures will be cooler both days as well with the northwest flow over the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Low VFR and MVFR ceilings over northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin this evening will gradually diminish this evening. However, MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop around and a but inland from Lake Superior later tonight. Fog will also form, especially around Lake Superior. A low level frontal boundary will move into northwest Minnesota late tonight. There may be some broken mid clouds associated with and ahead of the front. We left the forecast dry tonight as most of the models suggest the showers and thunderstorms occurring along it this evening will diminish as they move east. However, we expect at least a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to form Thursday afternoon along the front. There isn`t good agreement on the position of the front in the afternoon so we only included VCSH in a couple of the TAF sites for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 The wind will be light tonight, mainly at or below 10 knots. This will cause the direction to be variable at times. We expect fog to expand and for the visibility to drop tonight so we will maintain the Dense Fog Advisory. The wind will at or below 10 knots Thursday into Thursday night with the direction becoming east to northeast Thursday night. Strong winds are not expected into this weekend but there could be thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday which could cause locally higher winds and waves. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 80 52 77 / 10 20 10 0 INL 50 76 53 84 / 10 10 10 0 BRD 51 85 59 87 / 10 20 10 0 HYR 45 83 55 85 / 0 10 10 0 ASX 43 80 53 77 / 0 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Scattered showers/thunderstorms weakening some as the slowly migrate south and southeast. Cold front still the the west while warm front has lifted north of Hwy 2. Main instabiility axis still further west, but short range guidance still shows this moving father east maybe as far as MN with 200-500 J/KG of MU CAPE (a little higher further west). Light/spotty precip signal still on CAMs in our eastern CWA, but hard to say if measurable will occur outside of eastern ND and even there current coverage would be max (likely decreasing from this point on). Minor adjustments made, but overall forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Scattered showers/embedded thunderstorms are currently moving into the Devils Lake Basin. As front migrates east-southeast overnight axis of elevated instabiility and forcing are shown by RAP (and CAMs) to support isolated to scattered activity migrating across our CWA (mainly in ND). Previous forecast reflected this and only minor adjustments were made to PoPs/thunder coverage/sky cover. Due to dry layer, high bases, coverage, and progressive nature of activity rainfall amounts should be low. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Surface high pressure passing through the Red River Valley will continue to yield light winds and abundant sunshine early this evening. High pressure is pushed eastward this evening as a sfc low and associated cold front traverse ridging aloft. Initially scattered showers and storms will develop across this northeast to southwest oriented cold front from southern MB to southwest ND this evening. This activity is expected to dissipate in coverage and intensity as instability weakens, propagating eastward overnight. This does bring a chance for isolated showers and storms to portions of the eastern ND, the Red River Valley, and the northwest quarter of MN overnight with the greatest chance of rain over the Devils Lake basin, but most locations will likely stay dry. This boundary is expected to continue to weaken as it moves through the region, lingering over north central MN to southeast ND during the day Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, warm air advection yields dew points in the 60s lingering south of the boundary in portions of the southern RRV and MN lakes country. While this set up supports a small chance for isolated storm development, instability and forcing will be greatly limited under dominant upper level ridging. While chances for isolated storms cannot be entirely ruled out, a dry scenario is much more likely so stuck with a dry consensus of short term models. The primary result of this setup will be increasingly warmer weather by Friday. Most locations will see highs reaching the 80s Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 An upper ridge will slide east of the region Thursday night and set up a SW flow pattern aloft for the northern tier on Friday. This will bring an active Friday/Saturday with potential for severe storms across central North Dakota on well as a stiff southerly wind ushering in a hot airmass with afternoon highs in the 90s. The strongest CAPE Friday will be over central North Dakota, however a 10-12 deg H700 cap will be the main challenge for our western zones. A strong severe storm or two is certainly possible west of the Red River Valley as the cap erodes. The accompanying cold front moves across the FGF CWA on Saturday, entering the eastern zones near peak heating. Although CAPE will not be as strong as on Friday, 1K to 3K J/Kg CAPE values ahead of the front will combine with about 30-kts of deep layer shear...and a few strong or severe storms are certainly possible as the front moves across the eastern zones near peak heating. The strongest shear, generally 40 to 50-kts, trails the instability axis. The upper air pattern then shifts to NW flow by Sunday. The departing front will bring a refreshingly cooler airmass for the Sun through Wed timeframe, when afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s to mid-70s. The NW flow pattern will persist through mid- week, with a wave moving across the area Tue-Wed. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area from Tue aftn through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN. Thunderstorm potential most likely early in TAF period at KDVL. Radar/satellite/lighting all show this activity progressing towards the vicinity of the terminals at issuance, so VCTS was added at KDVL. Less confidence in thunder at other terminals, but VCSH seemed reasonable late this evening/early Thu morning at KGFK and KFAR based on signal in guidance. Winds should shift to the south and prevail 5-10kt at most terminals this evening before cold front moves through Thursday morning and winds shift back to the northwest. Due to weak surface gradient associated with surface high pressure, some terminals may tend to be variable in wind speed around 5-6kt between frontal passages through the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...BP LONG TERM...BP/Speicher AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
719 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Humid and unsettled weather is expected much of the upcoming week, as tropical moisture and strong June heating work in concert. Because of the moisture and clouds, daytime highs will reach near normal for early June, but overnight lows will remain mild and well above normal. The slow moving nature of the wet system, could bring excessive rainfall in spots early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 650 PM Wednesday...Upper support increasing west of I-95 as noted by secondary line of re-lit convection, but lower support is being lost, with lousy SBCAPEs in rain-cooled air and surface temperatures in the low 70s over portions of Marlboro, Dillon, and Robeson counties, so a struggle, but good heavy rain ongoing still, with winds up to 50 kt at 7000 feet measured recently inside the bulbous CB towers there. The `severe` wording has been removed from the gridded-based products but we will need to keep isolated to scattered pop values in overnight, due to boundaries, moisture, and upper ripples involved, especially as the air mass takes on a deeper tropical character. Temperatures not to drop a great deal overnight, but several degrees, while dewpoints continue a steady ascent, like a shallow incline walker. Upper CAPE to creep up a bit overnight, another sign to keep mentionable pops in for the night period, and 10 meter winds will level off at 8-11 mph overnight through Thursday, on average. The breezes and clouds should prevent widespread fog, but wet ground from rain and partial clearing may lead to pockets of variably dense mist. As of 300 PM Wednesday...Atmosphere destabilizing as strong June sun providing ample insolation even though filtered by scattered cu and hazy mid level cloud. ML CAPES now ranging from 1000J/Kg along the NC coast to 2500 J/Kg in the Pee Dee according to RUC analysis (already exceeding most model guidance). Deep convection has been failing to materialize until now due to lack of lift. Increasingly with additional heating thunderstorm development is expected early this afternoon and some storms could be strong to severe. The bigger threat will come late afternoon/evening however as shortwave crosses the mountains and gives rise to a squall line that will move in from the west, likely by about 21Z. Hi resolution guidance differs with the track of the squall line and thus which parts of the area stand to see highest QPF and severe weather potential. Have leaned slightly more towards the more northern solutions as this matches up well with the path of the vort center and stronger mid level flow. Would not be surprised however if the threat is relatively equal area-wide however as storms may backbuild southwestward into the higher instability/lower LFCs. After a fairly typical diurnal waning of activity overnight showers and thunderstorms will once again merit at least scattered coverage as another, possibly healthier shortwave crosses the region. At this time the WRF appears to be a northerly/deeper outlier with this feature. Should it`s solution gain some momentum however then another severe threat could materialize. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM upper-level low will be over eastern Oklahoma and will only drift to eastern Arkansas by sunrise Saturday. This low and the southwest flow on it`s south flank in low to mid-levels will stream in the tropical moisture that has been over Texas and Gulf of Mexico. Chances of showers and thunderstorm begin increasing late Thursday night with likely pops Friday into Friday night. Minimum temperatures are expected to be in the lower 70s with mid 70s at the beaches. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s inland to the middle 80s on the coast Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...the upper-level low located near Memphis will meander over the Southeast United States before slowly opening up and merging with a large scale trough over the eastern United States. As this larger trough develops a cold front from the north will drop down across the area on Saturday and finally stall along and parallel to the coast. A stronger fast moving cold front will sweep in from the northwest early next week and will stall along the coast on Wednesday. What this means is that the extended period will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This will be the best chance of precipitation for the area in the last month. Maximum temperatures are expected to mainly be in the middle 80s with minimum temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s closer to the coast. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...Another round of evening convection is winding down across inland NC/SC. As it moves eastward, it will lose convective characteristics and become mainly stratiform rain and should clear all terminals by 06Z. Some low-level MVFR/IFR CIGs could remain with the increased surface moisture. By morning, only a mid-level deck and thick cirrus will remain. This will persist throughout the day on Thursday with southerly winds around 10 knots. VFR during the day with thunderstorms developing after 18Z, again, inland areas will see the bulk of activity. Extended Outlook...Scattered diurnal convection will increase in probability throughout the end of the week and into the weekend. Expect VFR during the day with periodic MVFR/IFR conditions likely from the pcpn. && .MARINE... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly flow generally remaining in the 15-20kt range for most of the near term/through Thursday. Initially this will largely be due to west Atlantic high pressure but by Thursday a developing piedmont trough will make its own contribution. South to southwesterly wind waves will be the dominant wave along with a minor southeasterly swell component. A cold front will approach from the north and cross the waters Friday before stalling just to the south and then front will shift northward and parallel our coast. The front will sit over the near shore waters through Monday. The winds will be southwest at 10 to 15 knots Thursday night and will weaken and slowly back to the east around 5 to 10 knots Friday through Sunday. Winds on Monday will shift to the north and increase to 15 knots as a cold front to the west will move to the coast on Tuesday just after this forecast period. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet Thursday evening and will settle out to 2 to 3 feet on Friday through Sunday. the seas will increase to 3 to 4 feet On Monday with the increased southerly winds due to an approaching cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...Bacon/Colby SHORT TERM...Hawkins LONG TERM...Keebler/RH AVIATION...21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Updated the forecast a couple times this evening, with lowering chances of showers/thunderstorms south of I-72 rest of tonight, and ending the severe thunderstorm watch in southeast IL at 730 pm. Did have some severe storms with heavy rains too from Lincoln south since late morning into early evening, and these storms have shifted south of CWA by 730 pm. Lows overnight in the lower 60s from I-74 ne and mid 60s sw half of CWA, with upper 60s by Lawrenceville. Radar mosaic shows brunt of showers and thunderstorms have shifted south of a Pittsfield to Taylorville to Terre Haute line, with heaviest rains south of CWA over southern IL near or south of I-64 closer to outflow boundaries and unstable air mass. Latest CAM models continue to show showers and thunderstorms diminishing over southern CWA rest of tonight, with just isolated convection far southern CWA by late tonight and early Wed morning. The latest few hourly runs of the HRRR model and NAM nest models are showing some fog development late tonight over sw CWA, sw of a Peoria to Lincoln to Decatur line, especially over areas that received rainfall today. Another patchy of fog from marine layer off Lake MI to drift ssw overnight, but stay along and ne of Dwight and Kankakee. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Multiple surface boundaries in an unstable airmass is resulting in several small areas of thunderstorms this afternoon. A trough axis draped across Central Illinois has offered some focus for the convection, but the actual colder temps are a little further north, with more of dewpoint discontinuity between. Forecast issues in the short term surround the outflow boundaries and the frontal position through the next 24 hrs. 18Z NAMNest at least keying in on rather broad E/W orientation to convection from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio River Valley tonight. SPC SVR Watches line up nicely with the same presentation. Eventually the storms in sim reflectivity take on a segmented look before surging southward, looking more like a weakening QLCS with bowing segments, into southern IL around midnight. Expect the severe threat to last a little while, but expect maybe a little loss of steam after sunset. However, a significantly more stable airmass is not moving into the region, even with a trough and/or the front to the north. Tomorrow is as complex...with the trough axis shifting south and high pressure trying to build into the northern half of the state. However, mid levels are still warm, as well as the expected sfc temperatures. SBCAPE tomorrow still in the 2000-2500 J/kg range by the afternoon, with the axis across the southern third of the state. But that location varies with models, and given how much the models struggled with today... expect thunderstorms being influenced by multiple outflow remnants will not show up with any confidence this early either way. Going with a pretty generic chance of thunderstorms across the southern portion of the state. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Tomorrow night will rely highly on the evolution of the day, but expect an increasing influence from the high building in behind the front. Models are relatively dry after 00z, but little to no confidence in that ultimately, particularly in the south, given the trend this evening. A very slow moving upper low will drift across the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the weekend. Through Friday night, the majority of the precipitation remains south of ILX CWA...but by Saturday, start to see the impact of that storm as shortwaves pivot around that low and into the region. Varied amounts of coverage in the models given the difference in location of the upper low varies from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf Coast. As a result, forecast through the weekend and into the first of the week is dominated by chance pops and continued warm temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Broken mid/high clouds remain behind convection this evening. Have mainly VFR conditions... with a tempo for MVFR vis in the predawn hours. Llvl moisture enhanced by the recent rainfall has the dewpoints in the 60-65F range, and close to the overnight mins. Highest RH hits as well as a weak ridge axis and winds will not only be light and variable... will likely see calm for a few hours. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...HJS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1041 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 The line of storms across the northern portion of the CWA has bowed out or had stronger winds on the lowest couple of scans at times as it moves southeast. However, observed winds have been closer to 30 to 40 mph range with few reports of wind damage received so far. There still remains a chance of strong to severe gusts or possibly marginal hail over the next hour or two as the line moves southeast. However, the thunderstorms have cleared the 4 northwest counties and the watch as been dropped for those locations. Grids have been updated for this and to account for the latest observations. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 Bowing line segment moving from northern KY into portions of East KY remains the main concern this evening. This line should continue moving southeast into the area, but with instability decreasing toward the VA border it may tend to weaken over time especially considering loss of daytime heating. Other thunderstorms with supercell structures remain a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts across the KY Coalfield counties for the next couple of hours. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for most of the CWA. UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 Grids were updated for radar trends and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334. Recently, the intensity of the cells is to weaken as they move toward lower instability in locations further east that have lower instability. Additional upstream convection is also being monitored. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 The forecast for the short term period was challenging. Several different forecast models that were looked at were producing different solutions with regards to timing of new convective development and evolution to the north of and across eastern Kentucky, especially through around 0Z tonight. That being said, liked the HRRR solution the best for the rest of this afternoon and this evening, so that model was used for that portion of the forecast. Some adjustments were made to match up better with neighboring offices. The HRRR and NAM12 models both had much higher probabilities of rain for the late evening and overnight periods, which was the preferred solution. So, ultimately it was decided to go with a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms through early this evening, before ramping up the chances overnight. The possibility still exists for a few storms to produce damaging wind gusts this evening, especially north of the Mountain Parkway and along and north of the I-64. Rain chances will last through the end of the week and beyond, as a frontal boundary stalls out over the area. We will also be closely monitoring the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding to end the week, as the front stalls out and a steady stream of Gulf of Mexico moisture flows into the region. Temperatures in general will be above normal for the next couple of days. Lows the next two nights are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday should max out in the lower 80s across the area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 442 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 The models are in decent agreement with the upper level pattern for the extended. A closed low aloft located over the ARKLATEX region will slowly make its way eastward, progressing over the Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley into early next week. It will then start to phase into the northern stream flow, becoming an amplified trough. By Tuesday afternoon, this trough will span to be the length of the entire east coast. Zonal flow will then take hold briefly early on Wednesday over eastern Kentucky before another shortwave trough is expected to advance towards the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a stalled front over the southern portion of the state will continue to weaken Friday. Another low pressure system over the ARKLATEX region will then move over the Tennessee Valley, clipping southern Kentucky, through the weekend into Monday. A cold front will quickly follow and progress over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, this front is expected to pass to the south of the Commonwealth and high pressure will begin to take hold over the central CONUS. The upper level and surface patterns mentioned above will lead to daily chances of showers through Monday. With slow storm motions expected as well as PWATs from GFS model soundings between 1.6 to 2.0 inches through Monday, the potential for localized flooding continues to be a concern. At this time, between 0.25 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected during this time as well. Furthermore, thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through Monday. The better instability, according to the GFS, looks to be on Friday and Monday. With FROPA and surface high pressure taking hold, showers will begin tapering off early Tuesday and drier conditions are expected to return midweek. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s and lower 80s through the extended period. The exception to this will be Tuesday, where highs are expected to be in the mid 70s due to FROPA. Low temperatures will be in the 60s through Monday morning. FROPA Tuesday will lead to cooler lows into midweek, with mid to upper 50s expected by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019 Scattered showers and storms will affect the TAF sites initially with a line of storms moving into the far NW portion of the area between 0Z and 1Z. This line of storms with possible bowing segments and gusts upwards of 30 kt should affect KSYM and may persist further south and southeast to affect KJKL and KSJS as well around 2Z to 4Z timeframe. The line of storms should also affect KLOZ and KSME though only thunder on station was included for KSYM as confidence in it holding together further south was not high enough just yet. IFR or MVFR vis and CIGS will occur briefly in direct hits from thunderstorms. An overall downward trend in CIGS into the MVFR range prevailing is expected for a few hours between 10Z and 17Z as the lower levels saturate. Improvements back into the VFR range should occur in all areas around 18Z. Based on current trends in radar and model data, only isolated showers or storms are expected to occur this afternoon into early this evening. The main push of rain in the near term is expected to occur from late this evening through the overnight hours, as a frontal boundary sinks slowly southward and eventually stalls over the area. VFR conditions will prevail until more widespread showers and storms form this evening and tonight. Once that happens, any given TAF site that experiences a storm or intense shower could see brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. This pattern should persist through the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Even the strongest convection is now becoming elevated, with 30-40 mph gusts in the outflow getting to be the worst case scenario. Will allow WW 332 to expire on schedule, but will leave 334 in place south of I-64 as there are still at least a few storms to go through. Not expecting SVR in the pure sense, but marginally gusty winds are still possible. Thanks to JKL and SPC for coord. Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Trimming back WW 332 as the last bit of strong convection is right along the Ohio River from Louisville west to near Tell City. Not going to write these storms off just yet as the downdraft CAPE remains impressive, but the window seems to be closing on severe potential. Will let 334 ride across the Bluegrass region, taking care not to get too far out of sync with PAH or JKL. Have refined hourly POPs and QPF, and if the weakening trend can continue that should mitigate the heavy rain and flood threat. Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 A couple east-west bands of thunderstorms now situated just north of the I-64 corridor and extending well back into Missouri, with a general ESE track on most of the cells. Every now and then a segment tries to drop harder SE and that is where we have been seeing stronger winds as the storms try to move into very strong DCAPE exceeding 1200 J/kg. WW 332 continues until 03Z and WW 334 over the Bluegrass until 05Z. Our main SVR concern is with the leading line of storms, but will not yet clear the watch with additional convection yet to move through. Another developing issue as the night goes on will be the potential for flash flooding, especially as some locations get a second or third round of heavy rain. Not enough confidence to pin down what will be a narrow corridor of heavy rain, as the line will likely be progressive in many locations and hang up in others. Therefore will handle it with short-fuse warnings as the general heavy rain threat is already messaged. Issued at 415 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Atmosphere has destabilized and storms have initiated over Illinois and Indiana. Decent focus from just north of Vincennes to near Seymour. Strong instability in place with sfc-based CAPE over 3000 J/kg, and well over 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE across all of southern Indiana and most of north central Kentucky. Main threat will be damaging winds, primarily of the pulse variety, but there is just enough shear that we can`t rule out enough organization for storms to develop a cold pool and start diving southward. Southern boundary of WW 332 may be generous by a row of counties to cover that possibility. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Current synoptic setup has a cut-off low over New Mexico with weak upper ridging to the north and zonal upper-level flow over the Ohio Valley. Isolated afternoon pop up showers and thunderstorms are still a possibility today as we sit within a moist and unstable air mass with CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. Deep level shear is less impressive, which would suggest that any storms that do develop would be pulsey in nature. Hazards associated with any isolated afternoon/early evening storms would be brief heavy rain, local gusty winds and possible hail. Surface winds from the southwest will continue to gust into the low 20mph range until near sunset. A 500 mb shortwave, currently over the Great Lakes, will travel east throughout the evening. Models are in fair agreement with a line of storms moving south into southern Indiana later this evening into the overnight hours. The 05/17Z HRRR brings this line into southern Indiana by 06/00Z, but shows a weakening trend as it moves into central KY. The 3K NAM is a bit slower with a showtime of 06/02Z, but agrees with the weakening trend. SPC has placed a portion of our western southern Indiana counties with an Enhanced Risk and the rest of our forecast area within a Slight Risk with the most likely hazard being damaging winds. Short range models show most of this activity moving out of our area by Thursday morning. We`ll remain in an unstable environment Thursday as the cut-off low edges closer from the west bringing continued chances of showers and thunderstorms enhanced by diurnal instability. Forecast soundings show a drastic decrease in wind speed aloft, with speeds less than 20 knots up to 400mb. This will result in slow moving storms, which could pose localized flooding issues anywhere heavy rain should occur. Expect to see broken to overcast skies with max temps reaching into the low 80s with dewpoints sitting uncomfortably in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Thursday Night... Scattered showers and storms will likely continue into at least the first part of the Thursday night time frame, until instability is lost. The pulse severe threat will likely be diminishing, however the localized Flash Flooding threat will likely linger a bit as storms will be nearly stationary and should be quite efficient rainfall producers. Friday - Monday... The well-advertised cutoff low will move into and wobble around the TN Valley through the weekend. This feature will provide focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend as waves of energy rotate around the parent low. Waves of deeper moisture will also rotate into the region at times, providing precipitable water values up around 2" at times. A localized Flash Flooding threat is expected to continue during this time, and may increase with each round of storms, especially for areas that see repeated instances of heavy rain. Given extensive cloud cover and plenty of precipitation, look for small diurnal temperature ranges through the weekend. Highs should mostly be in the upper 70s and low 80s, while lows should mostly be in the 65 to 70 degree range. Monday Night - Wednesday... The parent low will be over the Gulf Coast region by this time, and will likely be swept by a northern stream shortwave trough. This will help to push the deep moisture out of our region, and will also swing a notable cold front through our region Monday night. As a result, we`ll see a return to dry and pleasant conditions through mid week. Highs are expected to run a bit below normal in the upper 70s to around 80. Meanwhile, lows will drop into the upper 50s and low 60s as dew points trend lower in the Canadian origin airmass. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 Convection over southern Indiana will drop southward into HNB, SDF, and LEX over the next few hrs. Have included TEMPO for MVFR vis, as we expect any IFR restrictions to be very short-lived and the ceilings will stay VFR. Expect storms to die down late this evening, with light winds and mid-level ceilings. Enough trapped moisture by daybreak to drop ceilings into MVFR, with a very close call for fuel- alternate. Will only take SDF into fuel-alternate, keeping LEX and HNB just above 2000 feet for the morning. Ceilings should lift to VFR early in the afternoon, with enough of a storm chance near a quasi-stationary boundary to support VCTS. BWG should remain high and dry this evening, and VFR on Thu morning, but will get in on the possible convection in the afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Mesoscale...RAS Short Term...CG Long Term...BJS Aviation...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
850 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Convection over the mid state earlier in the evening has dissipated with the loss of diurnal support, but we may not be out of the woods just yet. Ongoing strong to severe convection has crossed the OH River Valley to our north, and is heading south/southeast towards the area. CAMs continue to show rapid weakening once storms approach the TN border, and this is supported by a instability gradient in southern KY with dropping values into north central TN. Most of the better MLCAPE above 1000 J/kg sits north of the mid state, along with better deep layer shear as well. Convection is slightly ahead of CAM timing, so there may be a few stronger storms that sneak across the border around midnight. But, have largely stuck with CAM consensus with only chance pops in the northern zones this evening/early overnight. May need to adjust again later this evening should convection hold together in KY and model support ramps up as well. For now, left pops and the previous forecast largely unchanged, but adjusted slightly to account for possible showers and thunderstorms getting into northern zones around midnight. Will continue to monitor trends and update as needed. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Earlier cells are gradually dissipating as we head into the evening, and the HRRR only shows widely scattered echoes continuing overnight and Thursday morning. Our rain chances will increase during the afternoon tomorrow as a weak surface boundary to our north edges closer to Middle Tennessee. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1039 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic as low pressure with an associated cold front moves through the Great Lakes. The cold front is forecast to pass through our region on Thursday, followed by high pressure for Friday into the weekend. Broad low pressure and another cold front are expected to approach slowly from the west early in the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 9:30 Update... Convection remains fairly isolated and generally low in intensity. Small cells have occasionally been developing in the southern half of the region. Radar rainfall estimates have locally exceeded 1.5 inches for training cells in Burlington County. There is still a chance of locally heavy rainfall the next few hours as the cells that have developed, while small, have shown some training characteristics. The main area to watch for this will be near and along the I95 corridor where a couple of cells have developed recently over northeast MD and northern DE, moving northeast. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, the severe weather threat largely appears to have passed. We will also have to watch for patchy fog development tonight with plenty of residual low level moisture. 6:30 Update... The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to PoPs to account for recent trends. Bulk of activity so far has been over southern Delmarva. From a hydro perspective, this is not too problematic as FFG values in that area are very high. In terms of severe weather, we have seen one area of storms become borderline severe in southern DE and into far southern NJ. Expecting most convection from here to generally be sub-severe, however a few stronger storms are possible with still a chance for one or two to approach severe limits with gusty winds. Also noting some guidance such as the HRRR shows activity filling in further north quite a bit later tonight, so we will have to watch for this as heavy rainfall tolerance levels drop dramatically towards the more urban parts of the area. It does not appear that much if any of a nocturnal inversion will develop this evening, so with dew points remaining high and forcing becoming a little better, it is possible we could get new convective initiation even as temperatures cool off a little after dark. Previous discussion follows. High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly pass to the north tonight. This will drag a cold front towards the region this evening, but the cold front itself will not cross through until Thursday. Out ahead of the front, some mid-level shortwave energy will spawn a secondary low over the southern Appalachians, and this low will pass through Delmarva and southern New Jersey this evening. A hot, humid, and unstable airmass is over the region, with surface dewpoints well in the 60s throughout, and in the upper 60s to around 70 in southern New Jersey and Delmarva. This is resulting in upwards of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and SBCAPE across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and 500-1000 J/kg across the northern half of New Jersey and into southeast Pennsylvania. PWATs are generally 1.5-1.7 inches in the southern portions of the forecast area, but should climb up to around 2 inches this evening. This sets the stage for a round of potential severe thunderstorms, as well as locally heavy rain. Based on latest trends, the area of heaviest rain would affect Delmarva and southeast New Jersey, where the highest instability and highest dewpoints are. However, latest Flash Flood Guidance values suggests it would take 2-3" of rain in 1 hour; and 3-4 inches of rain in both 3 hours and 6 hours for Flash Flooding to occur. Since storm total QPF is generally on the order of 1-2" (though locally higher amounts are possible), do not think this will lead to flash flooding, so will not issue a Flash Flood Watch. Models are also indicating a potential swath of heavy rain just north of Philadelphia, so it is possible for some urban flooding this evening. Convection is possible in northern new Jersey (north of I-195), the Lehigh Valley, and the southern Poconos, but does not look to be as organized as the convection down south. With loss of diurnal heating after sunset, instability drops off fairly quickly. Heavy rain still possible, but the severe threat drops off. Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly the southern half of the forecast area through midnight or so. Once the precip ends, it remains warm and humid into Thursday morning. Fog and stratus likely to develop. Lows tonight in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Surface cold front slowly works it way across the region on Thursday. However, there does not appear to be much upper level support with its passage. Although it remains quite warm and humid ahead of the front, there may not be much energy with which to work to fire off much convection. Will keep PoPs capped at slight chance to low end chance. Going through the day, cooler and dryer air filters into the region behind the front, but pretty much only for the northern half of the CWA. Highs once again in the mid and upper 80s south and east of I-95, and in the lower 80s north and west. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Thursday night through Sunday... High pressure will build in to our north through Friday leading to a continuing drying of the airmass with a sky that will generally be mainly clear to partly cloudy. Highs Friday will mostly be in the low 80s however an E/NE flow around the high will keep it a bit cooler along the coast and it will also be a bit cooler over the southern Poconos. Surface high pressure builds S/E from Ontario/Quebec into New England through the course of Friday night and Saturday with an upper level ridge setting up over Ontario. These features should continue to dominate our weather through Saturday leading to plenty of sunshine with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. However we will have to keep an eye on a large upper level low with associated tropical moisture and rainfall over the southeastern states but at this point forecast models continue to indicate this should stay suppressed to our south through at least Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday, the upper low over the SE opens up with the upper ridge over the Great Lakes starting to slowly weaken and shift east...becoming centered just off the coast by late Sunday. Expect the area should still remain largely protected by the ridge through with mainly dry weather through the weekend. That said, latest guidance does bring the moisture over the SE a little farther north by late Sunday so will maintain the mention of chance POPs over the Delmarva. Sunday night through Wednesday... In the big picture, the weather pattern becomes more unsettled once again next week as a large upper level trough digs S/E from Canada towards the northeastern US and also interacts with the upper trough and tropical moisture over the SE. Depending on exactly how these features interact, which is currently uncertain, will determine the more specific details of the forecast in terms of how much rain falls and when. However expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by Monday across the area as extensive moisture is advected northward up the coast in a deep layer southerly flow. Still many days out but the concern is the moisture will be of tropical origins with PWATS potentially exceeding 2 inches so any showers/storms could be heavy. Showery/stormy weather has a good chance of continuing Monday night into Tuesday as a frontal zone moving in from the west associated with the Canadian upper level trough interacts with the extensive moisture along the east coast. Main question will be how quickly this moves through and again this will depend, among other things, on the interaction of the digging Canadian / northern stream upper trough with the SE CONUS upper trough. If a wave develops along the front near or just south of the area a more prolonged period of heavy rainfall will be possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as opposed to if it sweeps through faster as a more progressive cold front. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next several hours, however, the thunder should remain fairly isolated. Low stratus and patchy fog will likely develop tonight due to residual moisture. Confidence is low, however, on the coverage and extent of ceiling and visibility reductions. SW winds around 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt or less. Thursday...Morning fog/stratus gives way to VFR conditions. Scattered SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon, but confidence is low. West winds 10 kt or less, becoming NW in the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots becoming NE late at night. Friday...VFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots. Friday night...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots or less. Saturday...VFR. East to southeast wind around 10 knots. Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...Mainly VFR. East wind around 10 knots. Sunday night through Monday...Increasing clouds with showers and storms possible by Monday along with associated restrictions. SE winds 5-10 knots. && .MARINE... Late evening update to expand the Small Craft Advisory to include the Delaware Bay. Observations show gusts above 25 kt even on the upper Delaware Bay. This portion of the SCA will continue through 7 AM when winds look to diminish. SCA remains in effect for the coastal ocean waters for tonight and into Thursday afternoon, as southerly winds range from 15-20 kt with 25- 30 kt gusts. Showers and thunderstorms continue to be possible overnight, with thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 34 kt possible, as well as torrential rainfall. Winds shift to the W-SW at 10-15 kt late Thursday, and seas subside to 3-4 feet. OUTLOOK... Thursday night through Monday...Wave heights could reach near 5 feet Saturday night into Sunday as E/NE winds increase with gusts to near or just over 20 knots. Otherwise, no marine headlines expected. RIP CURRENTS... There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents continues through Thursday at the New Jersey and Delaware beaches due to the strong southerly flow. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Fitzsimmons Near Term...MPS/O`Brien Short Term...MPS Long Term...Fitzsimmons Aviation...Fitzsimmons/MPS/O`Brien Marine...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will diminish overnight before a frontal boundary approaches from the north Thursday. The weak cold front will drop south into the area by the end of the week resulting in a continuation of unsettled weather into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Wednesday... Showers and some still fairly strong thunderstorms persisting across the eastern OH valley, mainly northeastern KY late this evening. Question is how far east will they survive and in what form. CAMS (HRRR, RAP and NAM Nest) do not have a good handle on current activity with a much weaker (nearly non-existent on the HRRR) cluster of storms than what is out there now. But all are generally suggesting a more southeast then east trajectory of any activity overnight, possibly affecting our southwestern counties by 06z or 07z. SPC not seeming to be too concerned with strengthening with no MCD for a further expansion of the Watch over eastern KY as of this time. With CAPES falling off rapidly it makes good sense. Did not make many changes to the grids leaving chance pops in the west but may need updating if trends do persist. Previous valid discussion... As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday... On Thursday, the baroclinic zone will move slowly southward through the region as a wave of low pressure move east along the boundary. While the instability and shear profiles are not impressive, there will be enough convergence with the boundary to create scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly west of the Blue Ridge and south of route 460. The SPC Day 2 convective outlook keeps the entire forecast area in general thunderstorms. High temperatures on Thursday will vary from the lower 70s in the northern mountains to the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday... A stalled frontal boundary will be draped over Virginia and North Carolina throughout this forecast period, while high pressure over the Northeast wedges southward along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. An area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to funnel moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico toward this stalled frontal boundary. As a result, a wet and unsettled period with plentiful clouds and occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms should persist across the Mid Atlantic. The best chance of thunderstorms will likely be along and south of the cool wedge boundary during the afternoon and evening hours. Although the wind shear profiles indicate some severe potential, instability is more questionable given the prevalent cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday... The wet and unsettled conditions will continue through the early portion of the week as an area of low pressure slowly trudges eastward toward the Southeast. The stalled frontal boundary will remain over the Mid Atlantic, which will continue to focus the Gulf moisture. The cool wedge should weaken as high pressure moves offshore by Sunday night. Plentiful cloud cover and waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as a cold front arrives from the Ohio River Valley. Models disagree on how quickly this cold front will cross over the Mid Atlantic and shove all the tropical moisture and the stalled frontal boundary offshore. The latest GFS ends the rain by Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF does not end the rain until Wednesday. Due to the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the threat for localized flooding will be maintained in the HWO. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... An upper level disturbance will move east across the region tonight. An MCS moved through the CWA this morning and resulted in relatively stable conditions during normal peak heating/insolation, thus resulting in redevelopment of thunderstorms all east of our CWA. A mesoscale bubble high has dominated our region most of the afternoon and evening leaving VFR conditions for the most part. Embedded disturbances in a near zonal mid-level flow will keep the threat for disturbances and additional thunderstorms/showers in the region overnight. Currently watching a developing convective complex across Kentucky, which some of the short range models bring into the western part of our CWA around or shortly after midnight. Have included VCTS at KBLF, KBCB, and KLWB in the 05Z-08Z time frame to account for this possibility. MVFR BR may develop in areas that see rain overnight. Low clouds showers spread into western areas with a light upslope west to southwest flow along with VCSH or -SHRA during the morning hours. Aviation conditions Thursday should be rather poor in the west, somewhat better east of the Blue Ridge. Winds will remain west to southwest through the period at 5-10kts. /Confidence in Forecast Parameters/ Ceilings - Moderate, Visibilities - Moderate, Winds - Moderate to High, Thunderstorm Threat - Low. Extended Aviation Discussion... A stalled front/baroclinic zone lingering near or just south of the area, combined with a slow moving area of low pressure aloft through the TN Valley, and abundant moisture will result in an extended period of unsettled weather - with sub- VFR conditions likely in/near associated areas of showers/storms. Periods of fog/low clouds will also persist into the weekend. Overall, aviation conditions will be highly variable in both time and space into/through the upcoming weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK/PC SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...KK/PM/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ A few showers and thunderstorms linger this evening across parts of the Big Country southeast of Abilene, but these are not expected to affect the KABI terminal. Other showers and thunderstorms, developing from eastern New Mexico across west and northwest Texas, will move east into our area after 03Z, and linger across the area into the overnight hours. The highest coverage is expected mainly across the northern half of our area. Carrying Tempo groups at KABI and KSJT for TSRA between 03Z and 06Z. Brief reductions in visibility and ceiling are possible in locally heavy rain accompanying the showers and storms. Will monitor for potential gust front development at the leading edge of the convection, and add wind gusts if needed. Some cloud debris from the overnight convection will linger into Thursday morning. Additional development of scattered thunderstorms could occur on Thursday afternoon across the southeastern part of our area. Carrying a VCTS mention at KJCT after 20Z. Outside of convective activity, winds will be primarily from the southeast at 5-8 knots tonight. Light winds on Thursday morning should become west to northwest in the afternoon. 19 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) A few storms developing along an old outflow boundary draped across the Big Country this afternoon, with visible satellite loops showing a little cu field developing along another boundary from San Angelo to Junction. Meanwhile, the main upper level trough axis finally shifting northeast across New Mexico. best lift will be associated to the northwest where the best upper level support will be. Latest HRRR and TTU_WRF showing the same basic concept, with the most widespread activity developing and moving across mainly the Big Country, perhaps as far south as San Angelo. More scattered activity is likely farther south. Will run the highest POPs tonight across the north and slightly less south towards the I-10 corridor. Storms exit to the east overnight, with some chance of redevelopment across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland on Thursday afternoon in a continued unstable air mass. Otherwise, temperatures are not changing a whole lot, with lows in the mid/upper 60s and highs in the mid/upper 80s. 07 LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) An upper level disturbance will move east and on out of the region on Thursday night. This will drag the remainder of the shower and thunderstorm activity off to the east with it. Then, high pressure builds across the region allowing sunny skies and warmer temperatures to develop. West Central Texas will be in the mid 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Then, on Sunday, the ridge recedes and showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for the early part of next week. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 64 85 64 87 / 70 30 20 5 San Angelo 64 89 65 90 / 50 20 5 0 Junction 68 92 68 93 / 40 20 5 5 Brownwood 66 86 66 87 / 60 30 20 5 Sweetwater 63 84 64 87 / 70 20 5 0 Ozona 63 89 66 91 / 30 5 5 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$