Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Evening analysis reveals a subtle short-wave impulse in the Upper Midwest moving southeastward toward the northern Great Lakes. Attending surface low pressure is over western Minnesota with a warm front that extends eastward through northern Michigan and apparently cutting through the tip of the mitt. Plume of instability spans the central CONUS into the Upper Midwest ahead of the low and is largely contained west of Lake Michigan although some moisture/instability has/is trying to edge eastward across the lake...evidenced by a thin "warm advection wing" of showers/thunder extending through eastern Wisconsin and crossing into central Lower Michigan. But upstream, several clusters of strong- severe thunderstorms are ongoing and beginning to cross Wisconsin within the much more unstable air. Rest of tonight: Convective trends remain the main forecast issue. Surface low will slowly make it`s way into northern Wisconsin tonight. HiRes and rapid refresh guidance continue to suggest upstream instability plume will advect eastward into Lower Michigan although substantially weaken in time as it does. Ongoing storm clusters will follow the instability and also continue to move eastward across Wisconsin and likely make a run at northern Lower Michigan after 05Z per current radar timing. Meanwhile, we will probably also see an expansion of showers and a few storms along that "warm advection wing" over the next several hours as well. Severe weather threat: With diminishing instability and marginal supporting shear profiles downstream into Michigan, severe weather potential appears fairly low. SPC DAY ONE still has a sliver of the SW counties in a marginal risk through 12Z, which is probably fine. But again, I think the overall severe weather risk is low. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 ...Marginal Risk of Severe Overnight... High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms are expected to be strong overnight, with a marginal risk of severe storms. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure on the North Dakota/Minnesota border with a warm front that stretches across E Upper, is producing more showers and thunderstorms upstream of the forecast area. Closer to home, the showers over E Upper, associated with the warm front attached to the sfc low, are diminishing and moving slowly north. This has allowed us to get into the warm sector and achieve some above normal heat for a change. Cloud cover will remain scattered to broken over the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and this evening, before the storms near the sfc low push into the region later. In the mean time, the moisture has been increasing with the sfc dewpoints now around 55F. With temperatures expected to fall to below the dewpoints this afternoon, there is an expectation of fog as well, under the inversion. It looks like it would be patchy, but some of it could be dense. Otherwise, winds will remain light until the line of thunderstorms approaches by early Wednesday morning (around 10z or 11z/Wed). Primary Forecast Concerns...The fog isn`t a major concern as the low temperatures are only a couple of degrees lower than the cross over temperatures. So it is possible, but not a major fog event. The other is the thunderstorms...SPC in their discussion, have said that there is uncertainty in how far east the severe thunderstorms reach. We would concur with that. There is elevated instability (showalter index about -1c to -2c), but there is little LLJ and the 500 mb wind speeds don`t get much over 25 knots. So the idea that we would get severe thunder is low, but if the current thunderstorms can keep it together by early morning, it is possible that some could spit out some wind gusts, as it is dying. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 ...Showers and a few t-storms Wed then dryer and warmer... High Impact Weather Potential: Chances for non-svr thunder and locally heavy rainfall south of M-32 on Wednesday. Low pressure will move from central WI, across central lower MI, and on to southern Ontario on Wednesday. Convection and latent heat release will help maintain somewhat stronger/more compact system than it appeared at this time yesterday. Best chance of showers will be left/north of the track of the low, while the best chance for thunder will be along and south. Precip trends Wed are the main concern. Even keeping in mind the convection/latent heat trends mentioned above, the Nam appears to go a bit overboard with convective feedback. This also interacts with nocturnal MCS timing; the Nam is slower that recent HRRR runs, whose depiction of late night convection is preferred. So something organized, or at least originally organized, should be working into or across nw lower MI at 8 am. This occurs immediately in advance of the surface low, which will help keep the low-level jet more backed. We will be at the nose of the instability plume Wed morning, but at that time of day Cape will be smaller, MuCape values perhaps approaching 1k J/kg. Instability and forcing is such that the incoming morning MCS should be losing organization as and after it reaches us. That said, the entire convective scenario tomorrow is based on the idea that a weakening MCS moves into and across northern lower MI early on. So pops were boosted early. That is shortly followed by the actual surface low crossing central lower MI. Slow moving showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, will occur just north of this feature, from midday thru late afternoon, near ans especially south of M-32. Recent Rap runs are illustrative of my expectations here. Locally heavy rain is possible, as these will be slow-moving at times. High pops remain in order in much of northern lower MI as the surface low crosses. Activity should end in nw and far northern lower MI by 4-5 pm, and ne lower MI by 8 pm. A generally cloudy day, though perhaps eastern upper MI breaks out into partial sunshine late. That means the coldest max temps will be over far northern lower MI, from PLN to APN, with highs around 60f. Eastern upper MI will be in the 60-65f range, while the south half of the forecast area reaches 70-75f. The rest of the short term period is uneventful and pleasant. A relatively small area of high pressure settles overhead, in advance of 500mb ridging over s central Canada that forms the top of a vague rex block. This definitely slows down the overall w-to-e translation of wx systems for a few days. Guidance max temps are trending higher late this week, and will steer the forecast a little ahead of that trend. With plenty of sunshine, highs should be in the 70s on Thursday, and in the lower 70s to around 80f on Friday. Lake breezes will keep the coastlines cooler each day. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 High Impact Weather Potential...Warm/dry should definitely persist into Saturday, with much of northern lower taking another run at 80f. However, northern stream energy will get the flow more progressive again, and the 500mb ridge axis should slide downstream by the end of the weekend. Some small chances for showers may work in as soon as Sunday afternoon. The highest pops (though they aren`t terribly high) are featured on Monday and Monday night. The ECMWF is more organized in the northern stream, with a stronger surface low emerging to our east. This would potentially favor a rather windy day Monday, though again model spread is considerable looking that far out. After another quasi- toasty day Sunday, cooler readings are likely Mon-Tue. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Low pressure in Minnesota will slowly move ESE through Lower Michigan late tonight through Wednesday. Ongoing showers and storms accompanying this system will make a run at Lower Michigan later tonight through Wednesday morning. VFR weather currently will hold into the overnight hours. But with passage of showers, lowering cloud cover is still anticipated late overnight into Wednesday morning with MVFR to IFR CIGS likely. Cloud cover will improve some on Wednesday, but still remain MVFR to low VFR. Drier air returns Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Tonight through Thursday...Winds will diminish in the evening as an area of low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes overnight. The pressure gradient is expected to remain slack overnight as the system moves in and produces thunderstorms overnight, mainly in Lake Michigan, by Wednesday morning, as the low moves east, the winds will veer to the north and then to the east as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will become variable at less than 10 knots Wednesday night with the high building in. Thursday expect lake breezes as high pressure starts a prolonged stay over the region through the weekend. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BA NEAR TERM...JL SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...BA MARINE...JL
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system moving across the lakes will bring rain showers to NY and PA tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return to the region beginning Thursday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the evening updates, we decreased the rain chances for most locations south of the NY Thruway for the mid and late evening based on trends from the latest Hi-res NAM and HRRR model runs. Some scattered showers are still expected to continue through the overnight further north. Showers have also resulted in rain- cooled air this evening so some adjustments were made with the temperatures for the next couple of hours. Temperatures may actually rise in a few spots overnight. 245 PM update... A weak frontal system across Northern NY will keep the threat for showers over the region overnight, especially north of the NY/PA border. Temperatures will fall into the middle-50s. Instability will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage during the afternoon hours, with a few storms producing heavy downpours per 1.50 inch PWATs and 500 j/kg CAPEs. It will be milder with temperatures climbing into the middle and upper- 70s. Thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday night with the precipitation finishing the night as mainly rain showers. Temperatures will fall to around 60 degrees. In total, storm total rainfall of 0.60 to 0.90 inches is forecast across the region. 1045 AM update.. A few returns are showing up on radar to the north this morning, but it doesn`t appear the precipitation is reaching the ground yet. Showers will increase in activity this afternoon across the Finger Lakes and Western Mohawk Valley, then spread into the Twin Tiers. We adjusted today`s temperatures upward over the Western Mohawk Valley where reading were within a few degrees of the projected maxes. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thursday...Mid level short wave moves through the region during the morning hours as a surface cold front continues moving through the southeast forecast area. The GFS/ECMWF are faster with the surface boundary than the NAM and generally followed. Will continue with chance POPs during the morning and just slight chance by afternoon primarily east of I81. Will continue to mention thunder only in the far southeast where some destabilzation may occur before frontal passage. Thursday night/Friday...A dry period with northwest cyclonic flow aloft but high pressure at the surface. Lows Thursday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Friday in the 70s under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The beginning part of the extended forecast starts fairly quiet with surface high pressure in the vicinity and upper level ridging. Friday night through Sunday will advertise dry weather with near normal temperatures. Both the GFS/ECMWF are now dry for Sunday as upper level ridge holds tuff. Monday through Tuesday will carry chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms as moisture from an upper level system in the Tennessee Valley is entrained in a northern stream wave and associated surface cold front. The best chance for precipitation will be on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR tonight through tomorrow morning for all terminals except RME, where lingering rain showers will drop ceilings to around 1500 to 2500 feet and visibilities to 4 to 6 SM. Also low level wind shear around 35 kts is likely in the 0300 to 0900 UTC window tonight. A brief break in any shower activity is expected after sunrise, then showers and possibly some thunder returns tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with MVFR ceilings possible in showers. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Friday through Sunday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...HLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from the Upper Midwest will move southeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front trailing the low will move through the local area Wednesday night. High pressure will build in across the Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Raised pops 10-20 percent from Cleveland eastward where scattered showers are ongoing. These showers are falling out of a high based cloud deck. Removed the mention of any thunder from the forecast for the evening hours with instability starting to increase from west to east late tonight. We will also be monitoring the progress of the thunderstorms moving across Wisconsin overnight. This activity is expected to move east southeast as moisture advection continues to be focused in advance of it. Expecting an expansion of showers with scattered thunderstorms across Northwest Ohio towards sunrise then spreading east through the morning. Could potentially see a break in precipitation during the early afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms arriving late afternoon and evening with the better upper level forcing. Otherwise raised min temperatures by about a degree or so except locally around 2 degrees along portions of the lakeshore that will see downsloping flow increase later tonight. Previous discussion...High pressure is now off the Virginia coast and low pressure is moving toward the western lakes. Warm advection ahead of the low has allowed mid/high level clouds to advect into the area from the west but so far it has remained dry with fairly dry air in the lower levels. Radar however shows showers moving east across southern Lake Michigan and into southwest lower MI this afternoon. A due east motion would keep the activity north of the area perhaps moving it across Lake Erie, however the HRRR does show this clipping the northern counties and even develops showers into nern OH. So for the evening will carry a small chance pop and move it west to east across the northern half of the area. Will have a slight chance of thunder. Otherwise models show moisture increasing from the southwest after midnight with flow into the area out of the GLFMX. CAPE values also increase to over 1000 j/kg in the west pre-dawn. WIll increase pops west half of the area after midnight into the chance category with likely pops by dawn west. Low pressure will move into the lower Great Lakes just north of the region on Wednesday. With deep moisture across the region will continue with likely pops through the day. We should dry out from the northwest behind a cold front Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday mostly 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Maybe a few lingering showers across the east on Thursday but then high pressure will take control and keep the region dry into Friday night. Highs in the short term will be in the 70s. Lows mostly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will begin to move east on Saturday as low pressure approaches from the middle Mississippi River Valley. Models are differing on how fast the lift and moisture will return ahead of this low. For now will begin to introduce slight chance POP`s Saturday night increasing to low chance Pop`s on Monday. If this low moves eastward as indicated by the models there may be a brief lull between storm systems on Tuesday. Highs near 80s Saturday through Monday then cooling slightly on Tuesday. $$ .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Watching clouds increase across northern Ohio this afternoon in warm advection/overrunning. CIGS were around 10kft and lower levels remained fairly dry. Expect VFR conditions to persist through the evening and overnight. Towards morning however CIGS will lower to 3500 to 5kft from the west with scattered showers spreading in west to east through the morning. Expect MVFR conditions in wx. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Non-VFR possible on Thursday behind a cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions expected to continue into Wednesday morning. Cloud deck overnight will generally be above 7000 feet as moisture increases across the region. Scattered showers are ongoing at the start of the TAF period from near TOL extending east along the lakeshore and may clip portions of NE Ohio/NW Pennsylvania. Showers are expected to expand in NW Ohio after 09Z then continue eastward through the day on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms possible in NW Ohio late tonight then in all areas after 17Z Wednesday. Confidence is low in timing thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and will need to refine timing moving forward. South to southwest winds will increase on Wednesday with gusts to 20-25 knots at times after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible on Thursday behind a cold front. && .MARINE... A warm front will lift north of the lake and will become the track for low pressure to move along Tuesday night into Wednesday. So expect to see a slight increase in south to southwest winds tonight into Wednesday. Cold front will move across the lake wednesday night with northwest winds developing but speeds should not exceed 15 knots. High pressure will take control of the region Thursday night then persist into Saturday with light winds. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KEC/TK SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...KEC MARINE...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
635 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Southeastward moving MCS producing severe weather in southeast MN is on track to reach the highway 20 corridor around 9 pm. Ahead of this, the environment over the forecast area is capped, as confirmed by early data from the 00Z KDVN sounding and evident by the current lack of cloud cover over east central IA. There is a field of strato cu over central and southeast IA, roughly associated with a warm front nearly bisecting the forecast area. With an upper level disturbance moving into the area early this evening, will still need to watch trends early on, but the system to the north appears to be taking over the mesoscale environment. Most high res convective allowing models have latched onto the MN system, maintaining dry conditions early, with the focus being on the outflow boundary diving S-SE and triggering storms across the area later this evening. This could present a threat for severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging wind, with a secondary threat of large hail and at least locally heavy rainfall. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 18Z surface data has an inferred warm front from southwest Minnesota south through central Iowa into Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes with 60s and some 70s over the remainder of the Midwest and Plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Diurnal convection will be slow to develop through sunset across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. RAP trends support the development of convection but at the same time has large areas of sinking air aloft that would tend to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms. Thus through sunset expected isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms but many areas will remain dry. Right now the overall severe risk looks very low through sunset. However if a storm does become strong then localized damaging wind and large hail would be the primary severe risks. After sunset and through sunrise Wednesday there is a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area. Said feature in combination with unstable air aloft should allow showers and thunderstorms to persist through the night. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing hail. Of more interest will be what happens with the organized storm complex that develops over MN/WI and moves southeast. This complex will initially be severe and how long it will remain severe tonight is not known. Said complex will move southeast and reach southern Wisconsin in the hours prior to sunrise Wednesday. On Wednesday the better feed of moisture will be coming from a west wind about a mile above the ground. Trends from the RAP and other models suggest the storm complex will move more easterly once it gets to southern Wisconsin and miss the area. However boundaries produced by this storm complex will move into the area during the morning and should be sufficient to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas along and east of the Mississippi will have the better chances of seeing rain. Wednesday afternoon high pressure will begin to build into the upper Midwest and push a boundary through the area. Said boundary will then push any showers and thunderstorms to the south and east of the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Wednesday night through Friday: Split flow with a deep trough in the Pacific Northwest and a cut-off upper level trough/upper low in the southern Plains. Meanwhile, ridging builds from the southern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Other than a slight chance for showers in our far southern counties, much of the cwa will be dry. Temperatures will be about normal for early June with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. This weekend: Cutoff low will move slowly eastward across the mid/lower MS Valley. Models have backed off on heavy rainfall in the cwa, keeping the bulk of the rain south of the dvn cwa. However, our southern counties will be on the northern fringe so national blended models will have only a chance pop. Temperatures will remain about normal for this time of year. (The broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized. This system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico later today or tonight and the chances of development into a tropical depression have decreased). Early next week: A mainly dry period with pleasant June temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 A storm complex over southern MN will progress south into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois late this evening and overnight. This is likely to impact the DBQ site, but confidence of thunderstorms reaching CID, MLI and BRL is lower. These storms are thus brought into the DBQ TAF, but utilized prob30 groups at the other sites. Otherwise, conditions will be VFR outside thunderstorms with a cold front changing the initial southwest winds to westerly Wednesday morning, then northwest by Wednesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Most tributary rivers and the Mississippi River were steady or falling as runoff and routed flow from the recent prolonged stretch of excessive rainfall is working its way through the system. On the Mississippi, flooding remains at Moderate levels from Dubuque to Fulton and Major levels from Camanche to Gregory Landing. On the tributaries, Major flooding was limited to the Rock River at Moline. All other sites had minor to moderate flooding. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through Wednesday but heavy rain would be localized. This weekend a storm system is expected to remain south of the area across MO and into the lower MS Valley. There is still the potential for scattered thunderstorms in the dvn cwa which would produce locally heavy rainfall. Confidence in this scenario is low and will depend on the track of low pressure to our south. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Sheets SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Sheets HYDROLOGY...Haase
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Thunderstorm cluster over west central MN and isolated storms north of Highway 2 in northwest MN slowly migrating east generally matching up with timing from CAMs. ML CINh increasing and storms tending to become more elevated and weaker in nature as this front continues its progress E-SE. Adjustments made to reflect current trends, mainly to increase coverage for the next few hours in west central MN. Expect most activity to exit our CWA within the next hour, though a few showers or weak thunderstorms may linger thorugh 1AM. UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to impact our CWA migrating eastward. Outflow boundary merged with cold front in our norther CWA near Hwy 2 corridor just south of GFK) and should continue to move east and southeast with much more stable air overspreading our CWA this evening. Timing for window for thunderstorm activity still favored by CAMs to be through 9PM in our CWA with drier conditions after. Adjustments made to reflect current coverage/trends. Also, on Wed afternoon/evening (while not severe at this time) potential is there for thunderstorms as MU CAPE axis 500-1000 J/KG along/ahead of frontal passage migrates through our CWA. Thunder mention was added with this update to areas when have slight chance/chance PoPs during those periods. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 The severe weather threat tonight is the main forecast challenge. At 3 pm the surface low was located over the northern Red River Valley, with a cold front arcing back to the southwest from it. Showers and thunderstorms are trying to form along this boundary, mainly from central Cass County down toward south central North Dakota. In this area, temperatures are in the upper 80s with dew points in the middle 60s. Not a ton of bulk shear to work with and the overnight convection did work the area over earlier. Some of the latest HRRR runs show thunderstorms breaking out over southeast North Dakota, but quickly exiting the FA by 6 to 7 pm. So confidence continues to decrease that much activity will form in this FA tonight. Once convection moves out of the area this evening, there could be a brief period of breezy northwest winds, but these should begin to decrease again after dark. In the wake of the cold front Wednesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler and humidity levels will be drier. Wind speeds also look quite a bit more variable. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Will remain in split flow Wednesday night into Thursday, with the northern stream branch driving short wave energy into the FA late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. At the surface, it appears that convection will initiate over western North Dakota, then move east late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Models seem to show more activity over central North Dakota, potentially holding together but weakening as it shifts into this FA. Less certain about any precipitation in the Thursday through Friday time frame. Since the northern stream ridge axis crests over the FA, a dry scenario is more likely. Temperatures in the lower 80s on Thursday should jump more into the middle 80s on Friday. Moving ahead into the upcoming weekend and into early next week, change is in order. A deep upper trough over the western United States pushes east, bringing cooler weather to the area. Similar to the past couple of days, there have been model differences on how fast any precipitation would work into the FA in this period. At this point, best agreement looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday. It looks a little drier Sunday night into Monday, but with the cold temperatures aloft and cyclonic flow, there could be some Monday afternoon instability showers around again. Like mentioned, it looks quite a bit cooler, with highs in the 70s by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Isolated to scattered clusters of strong to occasionally severe higher based (8-10kft AGL) thunderstorms are migrating across eastern ND and northwest MN, with potential impacts at terminals through 04Z. KDVL is already in the clear. Thunderstorms look to miss GFK to the east. KTVF should have cluster moving over terminal, and while upstream activity has history of hail/wind, it hard to anticipate if it will weaken before arrival or not. Most activity at KFAR is remaining within vicinity but not passing over terminal at this time. Showers/thunderstorm should move within vicinity of KBJI before ending 04Z. Cold front/outflow resulting in quick increase in winds at KGFK (gusts 30-35kt) will arrive at KTVF and eventually at other terminals (though winds should be less as it moves further south and east). Sporadically strong wind gusts due to convective activity can`t be ruled out, but will be hard to anticipate. Winds eventually become light and variable overnight with VFR conditions prevailing. Additional high based cumulus (10kft agl) should develop across northeast ND Wednesday afternoon and a few showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as another front moves thorugh the region (mainly after 00Z). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Uncertainty continues with respect to convective evolution this evening and tonight, though confidence in anything widespread over the local CWA is diminishing. Early evening visible satellite imagery shows boundary layer stabilization already occurring over portions of the region, especially south of I-72 where thickening cirrus is overspreading the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of Missouri near St Louis and area south/southwest. This presents the best chance for anything reaching the local CWA this evening if its able to fester across counties in central Illinois south of I-70 late this evening, though there has already been some weakening trends on the northern end of the line noted on IR imagery with warming cloud tops as well as diminishing lightning trends. Given the orientation of these storms southwest of the CWA, have concerns that models such as the RAP showing a modest 25-30kt LLJ focused over portions of central Illinois may be overdoing the convective potential this far north with ongoing convection cutting off this potential. Meanwhile, storms over far southeast MN this evening should propagate into northern Illinois, though couldn`t rule out a back-building portion of this line of storms sagging south into central Illinois late tonight into early Wednesday. Have updated PoPs to reflect a blend of the HRRR and NAMNest, keeping highest PoPs in the chance category along and south of I-70 while the remainder of the forecast area only has a slight chance of precip. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Short-term convective forecast remains numerous subtle short-waves embedded within zonal flow pattern trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. 19z/2pm regional radar mosaic features a cluster of severe storms across central Minnesota in conjunction with a surface low. Meanwhile further south, only isolated convection is noted along the leading edge of an increasingly unstable airmass poised to the west across Iowa/Missouri. Model solutions vary greatly, with some showing thunderstorms blossoming across central Illinois this evening and others indicating virtually nothing. Given presence of weak warm front crossing the Mississippi River and an 850mb jet increasing to 25-30kt, think scattered storms will develop this evening and continue through much of the night. Overall severe threat will be limited, but cannot rule out a few stronger cells capable of producing strong winds and hail. The warm front will shift east of Illinois by Wednesday morning, followed by a lull in precip chances through early afternoon. With temperatures climbing well into the 80s and dewpoints reaching the lower 70s in the wake of the front, SBCAPEs will exceed 3000J/kg by afternoon. Despite the highly unstable environment, 0-6km bulk shear remains quite weak at less than 30kt. A cold front dropping southward out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will interact with the warm/humid airmass to produce a round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model consensus suggests the storms will develop along the I-72 corridor by early afternoon...then drop south of I-70 by early evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 12z Jun 4 models all push the cold front further south than previously thought...resulting in lowered rain chances Wednesday night through Friday. In fact, have kept areas along/north of I-74 dry through Friday night...with just low chance PoPs further south across the remainder of the area. Closed upper low currently over the Desert Southwest will gradually meander E/NE into the Ohio River Valley this weekend. As this feature approaches, increasing synoptic lift will lead to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the entire area Saturday into Sunday. With the main belt of the westerlies well to the north across Canada, the low will be very slow to a few showers may linger into Monday as well before dry weather returns by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 There are a couple possible windows for showers and thunderstorms across central Illinois, but confidence in placement and coverage is too low in both instances to include any mention in the TAFs. This evening, thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central and southern Missouri and are expected to spread east across downstate Illinois. These storms should stay south of the terminals, though cannot rule out a few isolated to widely scattered storms developing farther north. In general, models have been backing off on coverage across central Illinois overnight, so have opted to pull mention of VCTS at this time. The next possibility will be with passage of a cold front during the day Wednesday. Winds will veer from the southwest to the northwest as this occurs and cannot rule out scattered storms near the front. Again, guidance is mixed on the coverage and placement and many of the models keep initiation south of the terminals, so will hold off on mention in the TAFs for now. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
901 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return overnight tonight. A brief lull in the greater rain chances is possible Wednesday morning, but additional showers and storms are expected Wednesday afternoon into early evening as a cold front drops into the area. A few of the storms Wednesday afternoon and early evening may be strong to severe. Conditions will dry out later Wednesday evening. High temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday before slightly cooling to the mid and upper 70s for Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 A disjointed upper level pattern will remain in place tonight, with several smaller scale and possibly convectively enhanced short waves to keep track of. Main convective complex this afternoon has been located across far northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Downstream environment does not appear to be overly supportive of maintaining vigorous convective system, although near term model guidances does continue to indicate potential of redevelopment during overnight hours along associated southward advancing outflow boundary. Another area of convection has affected southern Missouri. May need to watch for some northeast propagation of potential smaller scale mesoscale convective vortex lifting northeast from this convection possibly helping to initiate some elevated storms overnight across local area. In addition, broad low level positive low level theta-e advection will continue overnight with eastward migration of decent MUCAPE gradient just to west of local area. Given above factors will maintain chance to lower end likely PoPs for the overnight hours. Confidence remains low on any potential for a highly organized MCS, but if storms are able to develop along remnant outflow boundary, may have some training of cells. Otherwise, some isolated wind/hail risk cannot be completely ruled out based on magnitude of elevated instability overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Pesky cloud cover will continue to slowly lift northward this afternoon with a few light showers possible especially in NW IN. As skies begin to clear, temperatures will quickly rise into the upper 70s. Dry weather continues through the evening into the overnight hours before remnants of an upstream MCS to our NW pushes through the area just before sunrise. Biggest uncertainty in this forecast is the strength of the morning MCS, which in turn will determine strength of the afternoon convection. NAM3K shows organized MCS moving through around 12z whereas the extended HRRR indicates a few rounds of precip in the morning and then clearing out for a stronger round of storms in the afternoon. Increased POPs after midnight tonight through the day tomorrow to reflect several rounds of storms. If the atmosphere can recover, CAMs showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE and marginal shear which should maintain some potential for strong to severe storms. Heavy rain and damaging winds would be main severe threats with minor flooding possible especially in areas that were hit hard from weekend rain. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Mild and dry Thursday through first half of Saturday, Ridge develops overhead as REX block ridge remains out along the west CONUS. Biggest change from previous forecast is a delays onset of system for the middle of the weekend into the start of next week. Kept blended chance POPs, but still uncertainty in the timing and progression of the system. Drying out once again middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Several smaller scale disturbances will be rippling across northern Indiana through Wed afternoon. One disturbance tonight has initiated complex of storms across southern Minnesota. This complex should tend to weaken late evening/overnight as it drops east-southeast. However, additional storms may develop along an outflow boundary with this storm, or in advance of this outflow boundary as strong instability gradient across the Mid MS Valley shifts eastward. Still some question as to how organized convection will be overnight given elevated nature of instability and overall modest nature of forcing. Scattered-numerous showers/storms late tonight may shift east of the region Wednesday morning before primary upper level short wave and cool front become the main players for Wed afternoon allowing for potential redevelopment. Best chance of thunderstorms Wed afternoon based on timing of these features appears to be at KFWA. Conditions should dry out toward end or just after this forecast valid period as the cool front slips south of the terminals. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Heidelberger LONG TERM...Heidelberger AVIATION...Marsili Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 A remnant MCV lasted through the morning and was reinvigorated by late morning as it encountered an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Since, thunderstorms have intensified and expanded across the area with strong winds produced by the strongest storms. For the remainder of the evening, this first round of showers and thunderstorms will continue working through southern MN and western WI over the next few hours. Despite modest shear profiles in the area, a very unstable airmass has developed strong cold pools with the strongest cells, which has lead to strong downburst winds. New development is already underway across the eastern Dakotas and far western MN, in response to destabilization along the surface trough/frontal boundary. So, expect the second round of showers and thunderstorms to move through mainly from 8PM through 1AM from west to east, with a few showers lingering across eastern MN and western WI overnight. Dry high pressure from the north will move in overnight through tomorrow morning, meaning dry and pleasant weather will set in for tomorrow and tomorrow night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 The longer term trends continue to focus warmer conditions early in the period with sharp cooling following a trough later in the weekend and early next week. Upper level ridging will provide generally warm and dry conditions to the region, Thursday and lingering through Friday night. Large area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Great Lakes allowing for rather pleasant conditions. Temperatures are expected to range some 5 degrees above normal for a change. Later Saturday and Sunday, a southern stream trough will lift northeast ahead a deeper western CONUS trough across the central Mississippi River valley. This should lift deeper moisture north ahead of the trough and surface front over the Dakotas. This front will move east and move through the region Sunday into Monday. Clouds and shower threat will hold temperatures in the 70s for Sunday. Northwest flow becomes established once again into early next week with even cooler temperatures expected, trending about 5 degrees below normal. The deterministic models draw in another trough and surface cold front through the region around Tuesday of next week, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Hi-res models have done a poor job of depicting the convective scenario, but the HRRR seems to be catching on. Looks like southern sites (KRWF-KMKT) will continue to be under the gun for storms from 00-03Z, with another (weaker) round affecting sites as far north/east as KMSP between 03-06Z. The threat for severe storms is diminishing, but strong winds and hail could still occur with storms this evening. Clouds scatter out overnight, but models indicate some sct-bkn MVFR level clouds developing on Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the northwest tonight and increase to 10G20KTs late Wednesday morning. KMSP... Mainly showers are expected this eve, but another round of thunder is possible between 03Z-06Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 428 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal mid/upper level flow through the northern CONUS with several weak upstream shortwaves over nrn MN and the central Dakotas. At the surface, a trough extended from nw MN into ern SD resulting in srly flow through ern MN and WI into Upper Michigan. However, the gradient was weak enough to allow the Lake Superior breeze boundary to push through much of north central Upper Michigan. The strongest convection over the region was moving from central into se MN while additional tsra over far nrn MN was associated with the MCV that moved out of ND. The area of showers through Lake Superior into ern Upper Michigan supported by 850-700 fgen isentropic lift had weakened. Tonight, several CAMs suggest that the convection over ne MN will expand this evening and slide through nw WI. Uncertainty remains with how the tsra will evolve as the MLCAPE gradient alignment would favor a southeastward progression of convection with the stronger storms brushing the west and south. However, the potential remains that the and MCV like features may bring a period of rain and embedded tsra through the north late tonight into Wed morning. With MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/Kg and 0-6km shear values into the 30-35 knots some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds with bowing segments as the main hazard. However, the higher potential should still remain over WI. Wednesday, there may be some leftover showers over the east half through mid morning. Otherwise, leftover low level moisture combined with weak northerly flow will bring low clouds across the north with the some drizzle possible north near Lake Superior. Partial clearing during the mid and later afternoon should still allow temps to climb into the mid 60s to around 70 inland with temps in the 50s near Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019 Ridging progged to build across the Great Lakes later this week will ushering in dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures look to easily climb 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. While air temperatures are expected to warm significantly later this week/weekend, beach-goers are urged to remember that lake waters will be significantly cooler! As high pressure pivots over the region through early Friday morning, diurnal fluctuations in the wind will be driven mostly by the Great Lakes and afternoon mixing. With ample mixing, RHs inland from the Great Lakes should drop into the 30-40% range each day. With temperatures will into the 70s and lower 80s inland from the Great Lakes, will need to keep an eye on diurnal mixing and how much remnant enhanced flow aloft will be able to mix down to the surface. Some model sounding suggest much breezier winds compared to the blend. With RHs dropping to around 30%, we could see elevated fire weather concerns develop if the wind gusts are strong enough. Friday through the weekend, high pressure settles east of the region and we will get back into southerly, return flow. With this will come increasing humidity and continued warmth. There is an outside chance showers/storms could develop late Friday, but have left mentions out as chance look slim this far north. The next best chance for widespread rain arrives late weekend/early next week as strong shortwave tracks east across the northern Rockies, eventually pushing a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes. Depending on the timing of this front, we could certainly see some thunderstorms as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 733 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019 Showers and some thunderstorms are likely to affect portions of Upper Michigan tonight, especially at KIWD where a period of tsra will occur this evening. TSRA are not expected at KCMX, and there is a very low probability that tsra will affect KSAW during the night. Upslope easterly winds will likely maintain IFR conditions at KCMX thru Wed morning, though these low clouds may scatter out at times this evening. KIWD will see VFR conditions fall to MVFR this evening then LIFR overnight under a light upslope northerly wind. At KSAW, VFR conditions will prevail this evening, then conditions will likely to fall to LIFR overnight under a light upsloping nne wind. Slow improvement is expected at all terminals on Wed aftn with KCMX most likely to improve to VFR. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 428 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019 No strong systems are expected to move through the Upper Great Lakes through the end of the week with winds less than 20 knots through the entire forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Forecast was updated to remove PoPs this evening and to make adjustments to the overnight as well. See discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Convection developed on the eastern fringe of the forecast area this afternoon and has shifted well off to the east late this afternoon. The latest CAM solutions...including the HRRR and NAMNest...suggest that a quiet night is in store as potential for an MCS to our west to affect our region is very low. Therefore, PoPs/thunder have been removed for the evening and for most of the area after midnight except for the south where some hint of convection is possible toward dawn. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Light south or southwest winds will continue overnight, with high clouds moving across the area. There is some chance for some light fog for a couple of the AR terminals, if winds drop off enough. Otherwise, only other concern is afternoon thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. Best chance for storms will be for KFSM and KMLC on Wednesday afternoon and will leave thunder out of the forecast for the other sites for now. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/ DISCUSSION... Most of the convection this afternoon has remained confined to the far eastern part of our forecast area. Will keep low pops overnight given what has transpired the last couple nights, and the poor model precipitation forecasts as of late. The majority of any precipitation Wednesday is expected to be across the southern part of our forecast area, with shower and thunderstorm coverage expected to increase area wide Thursday and Thursday night as an upper low moves slowly east across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, although the trend in the models has been down with total rainfall amounts, which is good news given the recent and ongoing flooding. Rain chances will taper off from the west by Friday night and Saturday. 1 to 2 inches of rain still seems likely in most locations, with locally higher amounts. A cold front will move across the area Sunday, but is likely to come through dry given limited low level convergence along the boundary. Cooler and drier weather will then prevail for the first part of next week. Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 88 68 82 / 10 20 20 60 FSM 71 87 69 84 / 10 40 40 70 MLC 71 83 67 82 / 10 40 40 70 BVO 70 88 66 83 / 10 20 20 60 FYV 68 85 65 81 / 10 30 30 70 BYV 70 87 65 81 / 10 20 20 70 MKO 70 86 67 81 / 10 30 30 70 MIO 70 88 66 83 / 10 20 20 60 F10 70 85 66 80 / 10 30 30 70 HHW 71 83 68 83 / 20 50 50 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ LONG TERM....30