Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Evening analysis reveals a subtle short-wave impulse in the Upper
Midwest moving southeastward toward the northern Great Lakes.
Attending surface low pressure is over western Minnesota with a
warm front that extends eastward through northern Michigan and
apparently cutting through the tip of the mitt. Plume of
instability spans the central CONUS into the Upper Midwest ahead
of the low and is largely contained west of Lake Michigan although
some moisture/instability has/is trying to edge eastward across
the lake...evidenced by a thin "warm advection wing" of
showers/thunder extending through eastern Wisconsin and crossing
into central Lower Michigan. But upstream, several clusters of
strong- severe thunderstorms are ongoing and beginning to cross
Wisconsin within the much more unstable air.
Rest of tonight: Convective trends remain the main forecast
issue. Surface low will slowly make it`s way into northern
Wisconsin tonight. HiRes and rapid refresh guidance continue to
suggest upstream instability plume will advect eastward into Lower
Michigan although substantially weaken in time as it does.
Ongoing storm clusters will follow the instability and also
continue to move eastward across Wisconsin and likely make a run
at northern Lower Michigan after 05Z per current radar timing.
Meanwhile, we will probably also see an expansion of showers and
a few storms along that "warm advection wing" over the next
several hours as well.
Severe weather threat: With diminishing instability and marginal
supporting shear profiles downstream into Michigan, severe weather
potential appears fairly low. SPC DAY ONE still has a sliver of
the SW counties in a marginal risk through 12Z, which is probably
fine. But again, I think the overall severe weather risk is low.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...Marginal Risk of Severe Overnight...
High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms are expected to be
strong overnight, with a marginal risk of severe storms.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure on the North
Dakota/Minnesota border with a warm front that stretches across E
Upper, is producing more showers and thunderstorms upstream of
the forecast area. Closer to home, the showers over E Upper,
associated with the warm front attached to the sfc low, are
diminishing and moving slowly north. This has allowed us to get
into the warm sector and achieve some above normal heat for a
change.
Cloud cover will remain scattered to broken over the Upper
Great Lakes this afternoon and this evening, before the storms
near the sfc low push into the region later. In the mean time, the
moisture has been increasing with the sfc dewpoints now around
55F. With temperatures expected to fall to below the dewpoints
this afternoon, there is an expectation of fog as well, under the
inversion. It looks like it would be patchy, but some of it could
be dense. Otherwise, winds will remain light until the line of
thunderstorms approaches by early Wednesday morning (around 10z or
11z/Wed).
Primary Forecast Concerns...The fog isn`t a major concern as the
low temperatures are only a couple of degrees lower than the cross
over temperatures. So it is possible, but not a major fog event.
The other is the thunderstorms...SPC in their discussion, have
said that there is uncertainty in how far east the severe
thunderstorms reach. We would concur with that. There is elevated
instability (showalter index about -1c to -2c), but there is
little LLJ and the 500 mb wind speeds don`t get much over 25
knots. So the idea that we would get severe thunder is low, but if
the current thunderstorms can keep it together by early morning,
it is possible that some could spit out some wind gusts, as it is
dying.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...Showers and a few t-storms Wed then dryer and warmer...
High Impact Weather Potential: Chances for non-svr thunder and
locally heavy rainfall south of M-32 on Wednesday.
Low pressure will move from central WI, across central lower MI, and
on to southern Ontario on Wednesday. Convection and latent heat
release will help maintain somewhat stronger/more compact system
than it appeared at this time yesterday. Best chance of showers will
be left/north of the track of the low, while the best chance for
thunder will be along and south. Precip trends Wed are the main
concern.
Even keeping in mind the convection/latent heat trends mentioned
above, the Nam appears to go a bit overboard with convective
feedback. This also interacts with nocturnal MCS timing; the Nam is
slower that recent HRRR runs, whose depiction of late night
convection is preferred.
So something organized, or at least originally organized, should be
working into or across nw lower MI at 8 am. This occurs immediately
in advance of the surface low, which will help keep the low-level
jet more backed. We will be at the nose of the instability plume Wed
morning, but at that time of day Cape will be smaller, MuCape values
perhaps approaching 1k J/kg. Instability and forcing is such that
the incoming morning MCS should be losing organization as and after
it reaches us. That said, the entire convective scenario tomorrow is
based on the idea that a weakening MCS moves into and across
northern lower MI early on. So pops were boosted early.
That is shortly followed by the actual surface low crossing central
lower MI. Slow moving showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of
thunder, will occur just north of this feature, from midday thru
late afternoon, near ans especially south of M-32. Recent Rap runs
are illustrative of my expectations here. Locally heavy rain is
possible, as these will be slow-moving at times. High pops remain in
order in much of northern lower MI as the surface low crosses.
Activity should end in nw and far northern lower MI by 4-5 pm, and
ne lower MI by 8 pm.
A generally cloudy day, though perhaps eastern upper MI breaks out
into partial sunshine late. That means the coldest max temps will be
over far northern lower MI, from PLN to APN, with highs around 60f.
Eastern upper MI will be in the 60-65f range, while the south half
of the forecast area reaches 70-75f.
The rest of the short term period is uneventful and pleasant. A
relatively small area of high pressure settles overhead, in advance
of 500mb ridging over s central Canada that forms the top of a vague
rex block. This definitely slows down the overall w-to-e translation
of wx systems for a few days. Guidance max temps are trending higher
late this week, and will steer the forecast a little ahead of that
trend. With plenty of sunshine, highs should be in the 70s on
Thursday, and in the lower 70s to around 80f on Friday. Lake breezes
will keep the coastlines cooler each day.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
High Impact Weather Potential...Warm/dry should definitely persist
into Saturday, with much of northern lower taking another run at
80f. However, northern stream energy will get the flow more
progressive again, and the 500mb ridge axis should slide
downstream by the end of the weekend. Some small chances for
showers may work in as soon as Sunday afternoon. The highest pops
(though they aren`t terribly high) are featured on Monday and
Monday night. The ECMWF is more organized in the northern stream,
with a stronger surface low emerging to our east. This would
potentially favor a rather windy day Monday, though again model
spread is considerable looking that far out. After another quasi-
toasty day Sunday, cooler readings are likely Mon-Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Low pressure in Minnesota will slowly move ESE through Lower
Michigan late tonight through Wednesday. Ongoing showers and
storms accompanying this system will make a run at Lower Michigan
later tonight through Wednesday morning. VFR weather currently
will hold into the overnight hours. But with passage of showers,
lowering cloud cover is still anticipated late overnight into
Wednesday morning with MVFR to IFR CIGS likely.
Cloud cover will improve some on Wednesday, but still remain MVFR
to low VFR. Drier air returns Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Tonight through Thursday...Winds will diminish in the evening as
an area of low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes
overnight. The pressure gradient is expected to remain slack
overnight as the system moves in and produces thunderstorms
overnight, mainly in Lake Michigan, by Wednesday morning, as the
low moves east, the winds will veer to the north and then to the
east as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will become
variable at less than 10 knots Wednesday night with the high
building in. Thursday expect lake breezes as high pressure starts
a prolonged stay over the region through the weekend.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving across the lakes will bring rain showers
to NY and PA tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return to the
region beginning Thursday afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the evening updates, we decreased the rain chances for
most locations south of the NY Thruway for the mid and late
evening based on trends from the latest Hi-res NAM and HRRR
model runs. Some scattered showers are still expected to
continue through the overnight further north. Showers have also
resulted in rain- cooled air this evening so some adjustments
were made with the temperatures for the next couple of hours.
Temperatures may actually rise in a few spots overnight.
245 PM update...
A weak frontal system across Northern NY will keep the threat
for showers over the region overnight, especially north of the
NY/PA border. Temperatures will fall into the middle-50s.
Instability will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage during the afternoon hours, with a few storms producing
heavy downpours per 1.50 inch PWATs and 500 j/kg CAPEs. It will
be milder with temperatures climbing into the middle and upper-
70s.
Thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday night with the
precipitation finishing the night as mainly rain showers.
Temperatures will fall to around 60 degrees. In total, storm
total rainfall of 0.60 to 0.90 inches is forecast across the
region.
1045 AM update..
A few returns are showing up on radar to the north this morning,
but it doesn`t appear the precipitation is reaching the ground
yet.
Showers will increase in activity this afternoon across the
Finger Lakes and Western Mohawk Valley, then spread into the
Twin Tiers.
We adjusted today`s temperatures upward over the Western Mohawk
Valley where reading were within a few degrees of the projected
maxes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday...Mid level short wave moves through the region during
the morning hours as a surface cold front continues moving
through the southeast forecast area. The GFS/ECMWF are faster
with the surface boundary than the NAM and generally followed.
Will continue with chance POPs during the morning and just
slight chance by afternoon primarily east of I81. Will continue
to mention thunder only in the far southeast where some
destabilzation may occur before frontal passage.
Thursday night/Friday...A dry period with northwest cyclonic
flow aloft but high pressure at the surface. Lows Thursday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Friday in the 70s
under mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The beginning part of the extended forecast starts fairly quiet
with surface high pressure in the vicinity and upper level
ridging. Friday night through Sunday will advertise dry weather
with near normal temperatures. Both the GFS/ECMWF are now dry
for Sunday as upper level ridge holds tuff.
Monday through Tuesday will carry chance POPs for showers and
thunderstorms as moisture from an upper level system in the
Tennessee Valley is entrained in a northern stream wave and
associated surface cold front. The best chance for precipitation
will be on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR tonight through tomorrow morning for all terminals except
RME, where lingering rain showers will drop ceilings to around
1500 to 2500 feet and visibilities to 4 to 6 SM. Also low level
wind shear around 35 kts is likely in the 0300 to 0900 UTC
window tonight.
A brief break in any shower activity is expected after sunrise,
then showers and possibly some thunder returns tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with MVFR
ceilings possible in showers.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday...restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.
Friday through Sunday...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...HLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the Upper Midwest will move southeast across
the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front trailing
the low will move through the local area Wednesday night. High
pressure will build in across the Great Lakes Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Raised pops 10-20 percent from Cleveland eastward where
scattered showers are ongoing. These showers are falling out of
a high based cloud deck. Removed the mention of any thunder
from the forecast for the evening hours with instability
starting to increase from west to east late tonight. We will
also be monitoring the progress of the thunderstorms moving
across Wisconsin overnight. This activity is expected to move
east southeast as moisture advection continues to be focused in
advance of it. Expecting an expansion of showers with scattered
thunderstorms across Northwest Ohio towards sunrise then
spreading east through the morning. Could potentially see a
break in precipitation during the early afternoon with another
round of showers and thunderstorms arriving late afternoon and
evening with the better upper level forcing.
Otherwise raised min temperatures by about a degree or so
except locally around 2 degrees along portions of the lakeshore
that will see downsloping flow increase later tonight.
Previous discussion...High pressure is now off the Virginia
coast and low pressure is moving toward the western lakes. Warm
advection ahead of the low has allowed mid/high level clouds to
advect into the area from the west but so far it has remained
dry with fairly dry air in the lower levels. Radar however shows
showers moving east across southern Lake Michigan and into
southwest lower MI this afternoon. A due east motion would keep
the activity north of the area perhaps moving it across Lake
Erie, however the HRRR does show this clipping the northern
counties and even develops showers into nern OH. So for the
evening will carry a small chance pop and move it west to east
across the northern half of the area. Will have a slight chance
of thunder. Otherwise models show moisture increasing from the
southwest after midnight with flow into the area out of the
GLFMX. CAPE values also increase to over 1000 j/kg in the west
pre-dawn. WIll increase pops west half of the area after
midnight into the chance category with likely pops by dawn west.
Low pressure will move into the lower Great Lakes just north of
the region on Wednesday. With deep moisture across the region
will continue with likely pops through the day. We should dry
out from the northwest behind a cold front Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday mostly 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Maybe a few lingering showers across the east on Thursday but
then high pressure will take control and keep the region dry
into Friday night. Highs in the short term will be in the 70s.
Lows mostly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will begin to move east on Saturday as low
pressure approaches from the middle Mississippi River Valley.
Models are differing on how fast the lift and moisture will
return ahead of this low. For now will begin to introduce
slight chance POP`s Saturday night increasing to low chance
Pop`s on Monday. If this low moves eastward as indicated by the
models there may be a brief lull between storm systems on
Tuesday.
Highs near 80s Saturday through Monday then cooling slightly on
Tuesday.
$$
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Watching clouds increase across northern Ohio this afternoon in
warm advection/overrunning. CIGS were around 10kft and lower
levels remained fairly dry. Expect VFR conditions to persist
through the evening and overnight. Towards morning however CIGS
will lower to 3500 to 5kft from the west with scattered showers
spreading in west to east through the morning. Expect MVFR
conditions in wx.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon. Non-VFR possible on Thursday behind a cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected to continue into Wednesday morning.
Cloud deck overnight will generally be above 7000 feet as
moisture increases across the region. Scattered showers are
ongoing at the start of the TAF period from near TOL extending
east along the lakeshore and may clip portions of NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania. Showers are expected to expand in NW Ohio after
09Z then continue eastward through the day on Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms possible in NW Ohio late tonight then in
all areas after 17Z Wednesday. Confidence is low in timing
thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and will need to refine
timing moving forward.
South to southwest winds will increase on Wednesday with gusts
to 20-25 knots at times after 16Z.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible on Thursday behind a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
A warm front will lift north of the lake and will become the
track for low pressure to move along Tuesday night into
Wednesday. So expect to see a slight increase in south to
southwest winds tonight into Wednesday. Cold front will move
across the lake wednesday night with northwest winds developing
but speeds should not exceed 15 knots. High pressure will take
control of the region Thursday night then persist into Saturday
with light winds.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
635 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Southeastward moving MCS producing severe weather in southeast MN
is on track to reach the highway 20 corridor around 9 pm. Ahead of
this, the environment over the forecast area is capped, as
confirmed by early data from the 00Z KDVN sounding and evident by
the current lack of cloud cover over east central IA. There is a
field of strato cu over central and southeast IA, roughly
associated with a warm front nearly bisecting the forecast area.
With an upper level disturbance moving into the area early this
evening, will still need to watch trends early on, but the system
to the north appears to be taking over the mesoscale environment.
Most high res convective allowing models have latched onto the MN
system, maintaining dry conditions early, with the focus being on
the outflow boundary diving S-SE and triggering storms across the
area later this evening. This could present a threat for severe
weather, primarily in the form of damaging wind, with a secondary
threat of large hail and at least locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
18Z surface data has an inferred warm front from southwest Minnesota
south through central Iowa into Missouri. Dew points were in the 50s
from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes with 60s and some 70s over
the remainder of the Midwest and Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Diurnal convection will be slow to develop through sunset across
eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. RAP trends support the
development of convection but at the same time has large areas of
sinking air aloft that would tend to suppress the development of
showers and thunderstorms.
Thus through sunset expected isolated to perhaps scattered showers
and thunderstorms but many areas will remain dry.
Right now the overall severe risk looks very low through sunset.
However if a storm does become strong then localized damaging wind
and large hail would be the primary severe risks.
After sunset and through sunrise Wednesday there is a weak upper
level disturbance moving through the area. Said feature in
combination with unstable air aloft should allow showers and
thunderstorms to persist through the night. Some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing hail.
Of more interest will be what happens with the organized storm
complex that develops over MN/WI and moves southeast. This complex
will initially be severe and how long it will remain severe tonight
is not known. Said complex will move southeast and reach southern
Wisconsin in the hours prior to sunrise Wednesday.
On Wednesday the better feed of moisture will be coming from a west
wind about a mile above the ground. Trends from the RAP and other
models suggest the storm complex will move more easterly once it
gets to southern Wisconsin and miss the area.
However boundaries produced by this storm complex will move into the
area during the morning and should be sufficient to produce isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas along and east of the
Mississippi will have the better chances of seeing rain.
Wednesday afternoon high pressure will begin to build into the upper
Midwest and push a boundary through the area. Said boundary will
then push any showers and thunderstorms to the south and east of the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Wednesday night through Friday: Split flow with a deep trough in the
Pacific Northwest and a cut-off upper level trough/upper low in the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, ridging builds from the southern Rockies
into the Upper Midwest. Other than a slight chance for showers in
our far southern counties, much of the cwa will be dry. Temperatures
will be about normal for early June with highs in the mid 70s to
around 80 and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
This weekend: Cutoff low will move slowly eastward across the
mid/lower MS Valley. Models have backed off on heavy rainfall in the
cwa, keeping the bulk of the rain south of the dvn cwa. However, our
southern counties will be on the northern fringe so national blended
models will have only a chance pop. Temperatures will remain about
normal for this time of year. (The broad area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized.
This system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
later today or tonight and the chances of development into a
tropical depression have decreased).
Early next week: A mainly dry period with pleasant June
temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
A storm complex over southern MN will progress south into eastern
Iowa and northwest Illinois late this evening and overnight. This
is likely to impact the DBQ site, but confidence of thunderstorms
reaching CID, MLI and BRL is lower. These storms are thus brought
into the DBQ TAF, but utilized prob30 groups at the other sites.
Otherwise, conditions will be VFR outside thunderstorms with a
cold front changing the initial southwest winds to westerly
Wednesday morning, then northwest by Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Most tributary rivers and the Mississippi River were steady or
falling as runoff and routed flow from the recent prolonged
stretch of excessive rainfall is working its way through the
system. On the Mississippi, flooding remains at Moderate levels
from Dubuque to Fulton and Major levels from Camanche to Gregory
Landing. On the tributaries, Major flooding was limited to the
Rock River at Moline. All other sites had minor to moderate flooding.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
Wednesday but heavy rain would be localized. This weekend a storm
system is expected to remain south of the area across MO and into
the lower MS Valley. There is still the potential for scattered
thunderstorms in the dvn cwa which would produce locally heavy
rainfall. Confidence in this scenario is low and will depend on
the track of low pressure to our south.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Haase
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Thunderstorm cluster over west central MN and isolated storms
north of Highway 2 in northwest MN slowly migrating east generally
matching up with timing from CAMs. ML CINh increasing and storms
tending to become more elevated and weaker in nature as this
front continues its progress E-SE. Adjustments made to reflect
current trends, mainly to increase coverage for the next few hours
in west central MN. Expect most activity to exit our CWA within
the next hour, though a few showers or weak thunderstorms may
linger thorugh 1AM.
UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to impact our CWA
migrating eastward. Outflow boundary merged with cold front in
our norther CWA near Hwy 2 corridor just south of GFK) and should
continue to move east and southeast with much more stable air
overspreading our CWA this evening. Timing for window for
thunderstorm activity still favored by CAMs to be through 9PM in
our CWA with drier conditions after. Adjustments made to reflect
current coverage/trends.
Also, on Wed afternoon/evening (while not severe at this time)
potential is there for thunderstorms as MU CAPE axis 500-1000
J/KG along/ahead of frontal passage migrates through our CWA.
Thunder mention was added with this update to areas when have
slight chance/chance PoPs during those periods.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The severe weather threat tonight is the main forecast challenge.
At 3 pm the surface low was located over the northern Red River
Valley, with a cold front arcing back to the southwest from it.
Showers and thunderstorms are trying to form along this boundary,
mainly from central Cass County down toward south central North
Dakota. In this area, temperatures are in the upper 80s with dew
points in the middle 60s. Not a ton of bulk shear to work with and
the overnight convection did work the area over earlier. Some of
the latest HRRR runs show thunderstorms breaking out over
southeast North Dakota, but quickly exiting the FA by 6 to 7 pm.
So confidence continues to decrease that much activity will form
in this FA tonight. Once convection moves out of the area this
evening, there could be a brief period of breezy northwest winds,
but these should begin to decrease again after dark. In the wake
of the cold front Wednesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler
and humidity levels will be drier. Wind speeds also look quite a
bit more variable.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Will remain in split flow Wednesday night into Thursday, with the
northern stream branch driving short wave energy into the FA late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. At the surface, it appears
that convection will initiate over western North Dakota, then move
east late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Models seem to
show more activity over central North Dakota, potentially holding
together but weakening as it shifts into this FA. Less certain about
any precipitation in the Thursday through Friday time frame.
Since the northern stream ridge axis crests over the FA, a dry
scenario is more likely. Temperatures in the lower 80s on Thursday
should jump more into the middle 80s on Friday.
Moving ahead into the upcoming weekend and into early next week,
change is in order. A deep upper trough over the western United
States pushes east, bringing cooler weather to the area. Similar to
the past couple of days, there have been model differences on how
fast any precipitation would work into the FA in this period. At
this point, best agreement looks to be Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. It looks a little drier Sunday night into Monday, but with
the cold temperatures aloft and cyclonic flow, there could be some
Monday afternoon instability showers around again. Like mentioned,
it looks quite a bit cooler, with highs in the 70s by Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Isolated to scattered clusters of strong to occasionally severe
higher based (8-10kft AGL) thunderstorms are migrating across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with potential impacts at terminals
through 04Z. KDVL is already in the clear. Thunderstorms look to
miss GFK to the east. KTVF should have cluster moving over
terminal, and while upstream activity has history of hail/wind,
it hard to anticipate if it will weaken before arrival or not.
Most activity at KFAR is remaining within vicinity but not
passing over terminal at this time. Showers/thunderstorm should
move within vicinity of KBJI before ending 04Z.
Cold front/outflow resulting in quick increase in winds at KGFK
(gusts 30-35kt) will arrive at KTVF and eventually at other
terminals (though winds should be less as it moves further south
and east). Sporadically strong wind gusts due to convective
activity can`t be ruled out, but will be hard to anticipate.
Winds eventually become light and variable overnight with VFR
conditions prevailing. Additional high based cumulus (10kft agl)
should develop across northeast ND Wednesday afternoon and a few
showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as another front moves
thorugh the region (mainly after 00Z).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Uncertainty continues with respect to convective evolution this
evening and tonight, though confidence in anything widespread
over the local CWA is diminishing. Early evening visible satellite
imagery shows boundary layer stabilization already occurring over
portions of the region, especially south of I-72 where thickening
cirrus is overspreading the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are ongoing across portions of Missouri near St Louis and area
south/southwest. This presents the best chance for anything
reaching the local CWA this evening if its able to fester across
counties in central Illinois south of I-70 late this evening,
though there has already been some weakening trends on the
northern end of the line noted on IR imagery with warming cloud
tops as well as diminishing lightning trends. Given the
orientation of these storms southwest of the CWA, have concerns
that models such as the RAP showing a modest 25-30kt LLJ focused
over portions of central Illinois may be overdoing the convective
potential this far north with ongoing convection cutting off this
potential. Meanwhile, storms over far southeast MN this evening
should propagate into northern Illinois, though couldn`t rule out
a back-building portion of this line of storms sagging south into
central Illinois late tonight into early Wednesday. Have updated
PoPs to reflect a blend of the HRRR and NAMNest, keeping highest
PoPs in the chance category along and south of I-70 while the
remainder of the forecast area only has a slight chance of precip.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Short-term convective forecast remains tricky...as numerous subtle
short-waves embedded within zonal flow pattern trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight. 19z/2pm regional radar mosaic
features a cluster of severe storms across central Minnesota in
conjunction with a surface low. Meanwhile further south, only
isolated convection is noted along the leading edge of an
increasingly unstable airmass poised to the west across
Iowa/Missouri. Model solutions vary greatly, with some showing
thunderstorms blossoming across central Illinois this evening and
others indicating virtually nothing. Given presence of weak warm
front crossing the Mississippi River and an 850mb jet increasing
to 25-30kt, think scattered storms will develop this evening and
continue through much of the night. Overall severe threat will be
limited, but cannot rule out a few stronger cells capable of
producing strong winds and hail.
The warm front will shift east of Illinois by Wednesday morning,
followed by a lull in precip chances through early afternoon. With
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and dewpoints reaching the
lower 70s in the wake of the front, SBCAPEs will exceed 3000J/kg
by afternoon. Despite the highly unstable environment, 0-6km bulk
shear remains quite weak at less than 30kt. A cold front dropping
southward out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will interact with
the warm/humid airmass to produce a round of strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model consensus
suggests the storms will develop along the I-72 corridor by early
afternoon...then drop south of I-70 by early evening. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
12z Jun 4 models all push the cold front further south than
previously thought...resulting in lowered rain chances Wednesday
night through Friday. In fact, have kept areas along/north of I-74
dry through Friday night...with just low chance PoPs further
south across the remainder of the area.
Closed upper low currently over the Desert Southwest will
gradually meander E/NE into the Ohio River Valley this weekend. As
this feature approaches, increasing synoptic lift will lead to
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the entire area
Saturday into Sunday. With the main belt of the westerlies well to
the north across Canada, the low will be very slow to depart...so
a few showers may linger into Monday as well before dry weather
returns by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
There are a couple possible windows for showers and thunderstorms
across central Illinois, but confidence in placement and coverage
is too low in both instances to include any mention in the TAFs.
This evening, thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central
and southern Missouri and are expected to spread east across
downstate Illinois. These storms should stay south of the
terminals, though cannot rule out a few isolated to widely
scattered storms developing farther north. In general, models
have been backing off on coverage across central Illinois overnight,
so have opted to pull mention of VCTS at this time. The next
possibility will be with passage of a cold front during the day
Wednesday. Winds will veer from the southwest to the northwest as
this occurs and cannot rule out scattered storms near the front.
Again, guidance is mixed on the coverage and placement and many of
the models keep initiation south of the terminals, so will hold
off on mention in the TAFs for now.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
901 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return overnight
tonight. A brief lull in the greater rain chances is possible
Wednesday morning, but additional showers and storms are expected
Wednesday afternoon into early evening as a cold front drops into
the area. A few of the storms Wednesday afternoon and early
evening may be strong to severe. Conditions will dry out later
Wednesday evening. High temperatures will warm into the upper 70s
to lower 80s for Wednesday before slightly cooling to the mid and
upper 70s for Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
A disjointed upper level pattern will remain in place tonight,
with several smaller scale and possibly convectively enhanced
short waves to keep track of. Main convective complex this
afternoon has been located across far northern Iowa into southern
Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Downstream
environment does not appear to be overly supportive of maintaining
vigorous convective system, although near term model guidances
does continue to indicate potential of redevelopment during
overnight hours along associated southward advancing outflow
boundary. Another area of convection has affected southern
Missouri. May need to watch for some northeast propagation of
potential smaller scale mesoscale convective vortex lifting
northeast from this convection possibly helping to initiate some
elevated storms overnight across local area. In addition, broad
low level positive low level theta-e advection will continue
overnight with eastward migration of decent MUCAPE gradient just
to west of local area. Given above factors will maintain chance to
lower end likely PoPs for the overnight hours. Confidence remains
low on any potential for a highly organized MCS, but if storms
are able to develop along remnant outflow boundary, may have some
training of cells. Otherwise, some isolated wind/hail risk cannot
be completely ruled out based on magnitude of elevated instability
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Pesky cloud cover will continue to slowly lift northward this
afternoon with a few light showers possible especially in NW IN.
As skies begin to clear, temperatures will quickly rise into the
upper 70s. Dry weather continues through the evening into the
overnight hours before remnants of an upstream MCS to our NW
pushes through the area just before sunrise. Biggest uncertainty
in this forecast is the strength of the morning MCS, which in turn
will determine strength of the afternoon convection. NAM3K shows
organized MCS moving through around 12z whereas the extended HRRR
indicates a few rounds of precip in the morning and then clearing
out for a stronger round of storms in the afternoon. Increased
POPs after midnight tonight through the day tomorrow to reflect
several rounds of storms. If the atmosphere can recover, CAMs
showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE and marginal shear which should
maintain some potential for strong to severe storms. Heavy rain
and damaging winds would be main severe threats with minor
flooding possible especially in areas that were hit hard from
weekend rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Mild and dry Thursday through first half of Saturday, Ridge develops
overhead as REX block ridge remains out along the west CONUS.
Biggest change from previous forecast is a delays onset of system
for the middle of the weekend into the start of next week. Kept
blended chance POPs, but still uncertainty in the timing and
progression of the system. Drying out once again middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Several smaller scale disturbances will be rippling across
northern Indiana through Wed afternoon. One disturbance tonight
has initiated complex of storms across southern Minnesota. This
complex should tend to weaken late evening/overnight as it drops
east-southeast. However, additional storms may develop along an
outflow boundary with this storm, or in advance of this outflow
boundary as strong instability gradient across the Mid MS Valley
shifts eastward. Still some question as to how organized
convection will be overnight given elevated nature of instability
and overall modest nature of forcing. Scattered-numerous
showers/storms late tonight may shift east of the region Wednesday
morning before primary upper level short wave and cool front
become the main players for Wed afternoon allowing for potential
redevelopment. Best chance of thunderstorms Wed afternoon based
on timing of these features appears to be at KFWA. Conditions
should dry out toward end or just after this forecast valid
period as the cool front slips south of the terminals.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Marsili
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
A remnant MCV lasted through the morning and was reinvigorated by
late morning as it encountered an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass. Since, thunderstorms have intensified and expanded across
the area with strong winds produced by the strongest storms.
For the remainder of the evening, this first round of showers and
thunderstorms will continue working through southern MN and
western WI over the next few hours. Despite modest shear profiles
in the area, a very unstable airmass has developed strong cold
pools with the strongest cells, which has lead to strong downburst
winds. New development is already underway across the eastern
Dakotas and far western MN, in response to destabilization along
the surface trough/frontal boundary. So, expect the second round
of showers and thunderstorms to move through mainly from 8PM
through 1AM from west to east, with a few showers lingering across
eastern MN and western WI overnight.
Dry high pressure from the north will move in overnight through
tomorrow morning, meaning dry and pleasant weather will set in for
tomorrow and tomorrow night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The longer term trends continue to focus warmer conditions early
in the period with sharp cooling following a trough later in the
weekend and early next week.
Upper level ridging will provide generally warm and dry conditions
to the region, Thursday and lingering through Friday night. Large
area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Great
Lakes allowing for rather pleasant conditions. Temperatures are
expected to range some 5 degrees above normal for a change.
Later Saturday and Sunday, a southern stream trough will lift
northeast ahead a deeper western CONUS trough across the central
Mississippi River valley. This should lift deeper moisture north
ahead of the trough and surface front over the Dakotas. This
front will move east and move through the region Sunday into
Monday. Clouds and shower threat will hold temperatures in the 70s
for Sunday. Northwest flow becomes established once again into
early next week with even cooler temperatures expected, trending
about 5 degrees below normal. The deterministic models draw in
another trough and surface cold front through the region around
Tuesday of next week, along with the chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
Hi-res models have done a poor job of depicting the convective
scenario, but the HRRR seems to be catching on. Looks like
southern sites (KRWF-KMKT) will continue to be under the gun for
storms from 00-03Z, with another (weaker) round affecting sites as
far north/east as KMSP between 03-06Z. The threat for severe
storms is diminishing, but strong winds and hail could still occur
with storms this evening. Clouds scatter out overnight, but models
indicate some sct-bkn MVFR level clouds developing on Wednesday
morning. Winds shift to the northwest tonight and increase to
10G20KTs late Wednesday morning.
KMSP...
Mainly showers are expected this eve, but another round of thunder
is possible between 03Z-06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal mid/upper level
flow through the northern CONUS with several weak upstream
shortwaves over nrn MN and the central Dakotas. At the surface, a
trough extended from nw MN into ern SD resulting in srly flow
through ern MN and WI into Upper Michigan. However, the gradient was
weak enough to allow the Lake Superior breeze boundary to push
through much of north central Upper Michigan. The strongest
convection over the region was moving from central into se MN while
additional tsra over far nrn MN was associated with the MCV that
moved out of ND. The area of showers through Lake Superior into ern
Upper Michigan supported by 850-700 fgen isentropic lift had
weakened.
Tonight, several CAMs suggest that the convection over ne MN will
expand this evening and slide through nw WI. Uncertainty remains
with how the tsra will evolve as the MLCAPE gradient alignment would
favor a southeastward progression of convection with the stronger storms
brushing the west and south. However, the potential remains that the
and MCV like features may bring a period of rain and embedded tsra
through the north late tonight into Wed morning. With MLCAPE values
into the 1000-1500 J/Kg and 0-6km shear values into the 30-35 knots
some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds with
bowing segments as the main hazard. However, the higher potential
should still remain over WI.
Wednesday, there may be some leftover showers over the east half
through mid morning. Otherwise, leftover low level moisture combined
with weak northerly flow will bring low clouds across the north with
the some drizzle possible north near Lake Superior. Partial clearing
during the mid and later afternoon should still allow temps to climb
into the mid 60s to around 70 inland with temps in the 50s near Lake
Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019
Ridging progged to build across the Great Lakes later this week will
ushering in dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures.
Temperatures look to easily climb 10 to 20 degrees above normal for
this time of year. While air temperatures are expected to warm
significantly later this week/weekend, beach-goers are urged to
remember that lake waters will be significantly cooler!
As high pressure pivots over the region through early Friday
morning, diurnal fluctuations in the wind will be driven mostly by
the Great Lakes and afternoon mixing. With ample mixing, RHs inland
from the Great Lakes should drop into the 30-40% range each day.
With temperatures will into the 70s and lower 80s inland from the
Great Lakes, will need to keep an eye on diurnal mixing and how much
remnant enhanced flow aloft will be able to mix down to the surface.
Some model sounding suggest much breezier winds compared to the
blend. With RHs dropping to around 30%, we could see elevated fire
weather concerns develop if the wind gusts are strong enough.
Friday through the weekend, high pressure settles east of the region
and we will get back into southerly, return flow. With this will
come increasing humidity and continued warmth. There is an outside
chance showers/storms could develop late Friday, but have left
mentions out as chance look slim this far north. The next best
chance for widespread rain arrives late weekend/early next week as
strong shortwave tracks east across the northern Rockies, eventually
pushing a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes. Depending on the
timing of this front, we could certainly see some thunderstorms as
well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019
Showers and some thunderstorms are likely to affect portions of
Upper Michigan tonight, especially at KIWD where a period of tsra
will occur this evening. TSRA are not expected at KCMX, and there is
a very low probability that tsra will affect KSAW during the night.
Upslope easterly winds will likely maintain IFR conditions at KCMX
thru Wed morning, though these low clouds may scatter out at times
this evening. KIWD will see VFR conditions fall to MVFR this evening
then LIFR overnight under a light upslope northerly wind. At KSAW,
VFR conditions will prevail this evening, then conditions will
likely to fall to LIFR overnight under a light upsloping nne wind.
Slow improvement is expected at all terminals on Wed aftn with KCMX
most likely to improve to VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 428 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2019
No strong systems are expected to move through the Upper Great Lakes
through the end of the week with winds less than 20 knots through
the entire forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.UPDATE...
Forecast was updated to remove PoPs this evening and to make
adjustments to the overnight as well. See discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Convection developed on the eastern fringe of the forecast area
this afternoon and has shifted well off to the east late this
afternoon. The latest CAM solutions...including the HRRR and
NAMNest...suggest that a quiet night is in store as potential for
an MCS to our west to affect our region is very low. Therefore,
PoPs/thunder have been removed for the evening and for most of
the area after midnight except for the south where some hint of
convection is possible toward dawn.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Light south or southwest winds will continue overnight, with high
clouds moving across the area. There is some chance for some light fog
for a couple of the AR terminals, if winds drop off enough.
Otherwise, only other concern is afternoon thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday. Best chance for storms will be for KFSM and KMLC on
Wednesday afternoon and will leave thunder out of the forecast
for the other sites for now.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Most of the convection this afternoon has remained confined to
the far eastern part of our forecast area. Will keep low pops
overnight given what has transpired the last couple nights, and
the poor model precipitation forecasts as of late.
The majority of any precipitation Wednesday is expected to be
across the southern part of our forecast area, with shower and
thunderstorm coverage expected to increase area wide Thursday and
Thursday night as an upper low moves slowly east across the area.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, although the trend in
the models has been down with total rainfall amounts, which is
good news given the recent and ongoing flooding. Rain chances will
taper off from the west by Friday night and Saturday. 1 to 2
inches of rain still seems likely in most locations, with locally
higher amounts.
A cold front will move across the area Sunday, but is likely to
come through dry given limited low level convergence along the
boundary. Cooler and drier weather will then prevail for the first
part of next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 88 68 82 / 10 20 20 60
FSM 71 87 69 84 / 10 40 40 70
MLC 71 83 67 82 / 10 40 40 70
BVO 70 88 66 83 / 10 20 20 60
FYV 68 85 65 81 / 10 30 30 70
BYV 70 87 65 81 / 10 20 20 70
MKO 70 86 67 81 / 10 30 30 70
MIO 70 88 66 83 / 10 20 20 60
F10 70 85 66 80 / 10 30 30 70
HHW 71 83 68 83 / 20 50 50 70
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30