Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/03/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
937 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Convection has ended over far southwest North Dakota. Although atmosphere aloft remains unstable, with boundary layer stabilization and no forcing mechanism, expect that convection will not fire overnight. Other than adjusting sky cover and pops southwest based on latest satellite and radar imagery, current forecast remains valid. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Only significant changes to the going forecast were to refine pops and sky cover over the southwest where ongoing convection continues. Strong to severe convection continues to drop south from southern Billings and Golden Valley counties into Slope county. The storm over southern Billings has been quite impressive given the marginally sheared environment. The storm to it`s west seems to be struggling as it`s ingesting outflow from the leading storm. Both these storms and other weaker convection are expected to continue a south to southeast motion and dissipate with loss of heating later this evening. Updated text products will be sent shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Thunderstorm chances southwest through this evening, and over all of western and central ND Monday afternoon and evening, highlight the short term forecast period. Through mid afternoon, satellite imagery shows a steady eastward trend of the smoke aloft in tandem with mean winds aloft, with the back edge of the thicker smoke along a line from Minot to Bismarck as of 20 UTC. The smoke layer appears to be more transparent than it was at this time yesterday when it was centered on southwestern ND, which is in line with HRRR-Smoke simulations which have long expected vertically integrated smoke particulates to diminish in time. This is likely why temperatures have been less-impacted by the smoke layer than this time yesterday. HRRR-Smoke guidance is consistent in suggesting the smoke layer will continue moving out of the area tonight, leaving us smoke-free on Monday. Meanwhile, cumulus fields are deepening from southeastern MT north toward the Beach and Wibaux areas as of 20 UTC. Moisture advection is ongoing with 20 UTC dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s F in southwestern ND, in line with guidance expectations and supportive of late afternoon and early evening MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg amid steepening midlevel lapse rates. Background ascent is weak given weak height rises aloft, and surface observations suggest the main convergence feature is the north end of a lee trough and/or Black Hills convergence zone that extends into southeastern MT. Storms that develop near that feature could propagate into southwest ND in the very late afternoon or evening. Otherwise, cumulus has been most notably developing along higher ridgetops across the region and thus topographic influences may play a role in this convective initiation scenario. Some CAMs, such as the 12 UTC 3 km NAM and NSSL WRF-ARW, support convective initiation over west central ND, and indeed visible satellite imagery suggests that is possible in the next few hours. Finding a focus for ascent in that area within the model simulations that focus convective initiation there is difficult, but the 12 UTC 3 km NAM does so immediately following formation of weak boundary layer confluence in wind fields where a more south-southwest wind direction meets a more southeast wind field in the model. Such a meso-gamma-scale feature may be ongoing due to topographic effects or the development of a weak differential mixing boundary near the edge of the northward-returning higher- dewpoint air, but uncertainty exists in whether or not either of these features will be sufficient to sustain parcel ascent long enough to yield thunderstorm development given the background weak-ascent regime. Indeed, ESRL HRRR cycles have been consistent in generating no deep convection in western ND, supporting the opposite end of the potential envelope of scenarios. If storms do occur though, the instability combined with 25 to 30 kt of deep- layer shear supports a marginal risk of severe hail or wind. The 12 UTC HREF calibrated severe probabilistic guidance suggests the wind threat may be the slightly more prominent of the two threats, which is reasonable given the high-based and potentially outflow- dominant nature of convection. Regardless of what occurs through this evening, convection will be diurnally-driven as shortwave ridging crosses the region overnight and the terminus of a modest low-level jet gets focused north into southern Canada. Thus, the opportunity for convective-generating forcing for ascent will be minimal, though with broad and ongoing low-level theta-e advection surmounted by continually-steepening midlevel lapse rates as elevated mixed layer air continues moving to the east, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will exist and is expected to be relatively uncapped for parcels originating around 875 mb. Again, though, forcing for ascent is negligible and so while the chance of elevated convection overnight is non-zero, it is far too low to include in the forecast. Note that even if any storms did form overnight deep-layer shear would be weak, minimizing their organization. On Monday, a surface low will move into central Canada, placing western and central ND in the cyclone`s warm sector ahead of a surface trough that is expected to move into western ND by late afternoon. That trough and its related convergence field should serve as the focus for scattered thunderstorm development in an environment characterized by steep low and midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE over western ND in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Guidance suggests the surface moist axis will be displaced east of the surface trough such that dewpoints in central ND will be around 60 F with MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Where wind fields are concerned, effective-layer shear will be weak, in the 20-25 kt range, supporting multicellular convective modes, though the orientation of cloud-layer mean winds and deep-layer shear vectors orthogonal to the north-south pressure trough suggests discrete cells will be favored after convective initiation. A marginal risk of large hail and wind -- minimized by the magnitude of deep-layer shear -- will exist in western ND along the surface trough, though the potential for a somewhat greater severe-storm threat, albeit still marginal, may exist with any cells that can propagate into the higher-CAPE axis in central ND by Monday evening. Once more the convection may be diurnally driven per the 12 UTC CAMs, and thus could diminish by late Monday evening. Otherwise, highs Monday in the warm sector will be well into the 80s F, with lower 90s possible in the northwest and north central where soil moisture content is lower due to a lack of springtime rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 A summer-like pattern will persist this week with highs mainly in the 80s F and slight chances of storms, before a cooling trend arrives by next weekend along with a greater chance of storms. On the synoptic scale, broad westerly flow aloft will be in place Tuesday through Thursday, with low-amplitude impulses embedded in the flow potentially generating convection as mass fields respond to their passage with return-flow moisture advection then taking place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates occurring thanks to the eastward advection of elevated mixed layer air aloft. Low-grade PoPs dominate the forecast in this time period owing to the low predictability of these impulses, and while instability could be sufficient for a severe-storm risk, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak, with all of the 12 UTC GEFS members calling for 0-6-km bulk wind shear less than 30 kt persisting through Thursday across most of the area. The 12 UTC global model suites remained consistent in advertising a deepening trough moving into the Pacific Northwest by Friday and turning flow aloft southwesterly across the Northern Plains. This will yield a background environment more favorable for organized convection, particularly as the trough passage occurs, though the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles differ in its timing. Deep-layer shear will likely increase with the approach of this trough, too. Finally, warm air advection could yield a period of temperatures which are even warmer than advertised, before a following cold frontal passage results in cooler weather in its wake. The 12 UTC multi-model consensus supported the beginning of that cooldown on Saturday, though several GEFS members and the 12 UTC ECMWF were less progressive with the trough passage and suggested Saturday could remain warm with a greater thunderstorm probability. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. South to southeast surface flow expected to continue through the TAF period. Afternoon convection is possible mainly western ND 20-24 UTC Monday, but at this time to early to mention in either KDIK or KISN TAF. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1026 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will swing through the state tonight bringing a period of rain showers. Cool and mostly cloudy to begin the week with a few afternoon showers on Monday and Tuesday. A warm front will approach Central Maine by mid-week with a slight warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 10:30 PM Update...A new line of moderate to locally heavy showers is approaching our western border with a secondary frontal wave approaching from the west. Latest HRRR guidance is carrying this area of showers northeast through our northwestern and northern areas around and just after midnight before it dissipates and lifts up to the northeast in the predawn hours. Increased shower coverage west and north through midnight to reflect this. Weak pre-frontal trough continues to be a focus area for rain shower activity across the state this afternoon. Models have struggled with this low level convergence zone between the SE and SW flow all day. This area of shower activity will be the focus for the remainder of the afternoon, before the main dynamic forcing shifts to the cold front across the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. The primary upper level low over Ottawa province will move eastward through the night with the surface cold front forecasted to swing through the region from 06-12z. This will be the focus of the rain shower activity with a progressive west to east movement. There is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm this evening across the Quebec border with some marginal instability moving along the higher terrain of the border. Not expecting any lighting activity further east though with no guidance supporting any surface based instability after 00Z. SW onshore flow will develop once again also, so a period of fog and low visibility could return to the Downeast coast. During the day on Monday there could be some brief clearing Monday morning with breaks in the clouds, but clouds will quickly fill back in as the upper level 500mb vort max pivots across the state. Afternoon instability showers are expected to develop once again, especially over eastern sections of the state near the New Brunswick border. It will remain cool again with high temperatures mostly in the 60s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Monday night, a sharp upper trough will cross the area. Afternoon convective activity will die off and exit east into New Brunswick, but showers will remain possible through the night...mostly in northern zones. Cold air advection with the upper trough will ensure lows drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Another shortwave upper trough will cross Tuesday with diurnally driven cu and stratocu for the entire forecast area and chance pops for showers in northern zones. Once this shortwave crosses, a warm front will approach the southwestern corner of the forecast area later Tuesday night with increasing clouds. Northern zones will stay dry and mostly clear. Due to the cold air mass, have introduced patchy frost in the Allagash for Tuesday night. The warm front and an initial shortwave will generate precip in the southern half of the forecast area on Wednesday but northern zones will stay dry. As a result, adjusted the temp forecast to fit with mid 60s in northern Aroostook and readings closer to 60F in the precip area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Wednesday night, the warm front makes some gradual progress northward. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave will phase with the southern stream moisture advecting north with the warm front. As a result, most of the forecast area will experience increasing pops later Wednesday night into Thursday. Fog and low clouds will likely be an issue in the southern half of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Dew points will rise towards 60F in southern zones by Thursday afternoon and convection could be an issue with a little bit of clearing and insolation ahead of the cold front. Once the cold front is through, a cool and mostly dry neg NAO pattern is reestablished under the influence of a cool blocking upper low over eastern Canada. The ECMWF has been most correct in recent days for maintaining this feature through next weekend. Have lowered forecast highs for Friday into Sunday such that most of the area remains stuck in the 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: After a bit of low level clearing across Downeast and eastern sites this afternoon, VFR/MVFR ceilings will again lower this evening and overnight. Brief showers will pass over BGR early this evening. Will drop to IFR ceilings that were observed in WVL with this complex, but also did not see the low level cloud clearing like BGR did this afternoon. Overall, MVFR this evening as showers move in. Fog will develop overnight for inland sites limiting visibility to IFR/LIFR, with BGR and BHB denser as marine layer interacts. Fog will dissipate early morning with improving ceilings to VFR/MVFR through noon. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions in showers will be possible Monday night north of GNR and HUL. Otherwise, all sites will be VFR until Wednesday. Conditions will deteriorate towards IFR south of GNR to MLT during the day. All sites will likely have IFR cigs or vis Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A cold front crossing Thursday will bring a return to predominately VFR conditions Thursday night into Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms with the cold front on Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Light NE winds over the waters will become SW tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers and areas of fog will be possible after midnight into the early morning hours of Monday. Winds will remain out of the SW tomorrow with winds around 10 to 15 kts and seas building close to 5 feet by late afternoon for the outer coastal waters. SHORT TERM: |Continued to adjust winds and seas down for stable conditions over the waters. Fog will return Wednesday night and persist into Thursday evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Dumont Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Dumont/MCW Marine...Dumont/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1027 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure shifting slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across eastern Colorado. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 All is quiet across SW Kansas as of midday, with satellite showing very few clouds over the region. With full sunshine acting on boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, instability will build rapidly this afternoon from the Colorado mountains eastward. With broad ridging and weak forcing aloft, and no discernible surface boundaries to focus convection like yesterday`s outflow boundary, we will have to wait for mountain induced convection to arrive from the west this evening. Models/CAMs all agree on this evolution, with the usual differences in exact timing and placment. 12z NAM is quite bullish with a large MCS and suggests a considerable damaging wind/flooding threat across the western 1/2 of the CWA through tonight. HRRR has consistently shown linear convective systems arriving on the KS/CO line around 6-7 pm, with the HRRR emphasizing a damaging wind threat across the SW zones this evening. Stronger SE boundary layer inflow will tap some of the richer moisture in Oklahoma this evening, and is expected to support a stronger/longer-lived complex through tonight. Severe risk from SPC along and west of US 83 is justified, but with linear modes the hail threat should be relatively minimized. Many models are showing bowing segments as they intersect the moist SE flow, and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible through tonight, especially west of US 283/Dodge City. Convection will diminish or exit across the eastern zones late tonight, with lows in the lower 60s. Monday will feature more of the same, with no change in the synoptic pattern. Western trough centered from Los Angeles to Salt Lake City will move little through Monday, with continued weak vorticity maxima arriving over SW KS. Most of daylight Monday will be dry again, and in response to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado, south winds will increase noticeably, averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts. 12z NAM and extended HRRR/CAMs show convection again focusing on the western zones Monday afternoon and evening. The convective threat of large hail and damaging winds will continue from any storms. Depending on how much rain falls across western zones tonight, will need to watch the flash flooding potential carefully late Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with flash flooding of saturated soils becoming an increasing threat. 12z ECMWF forecasts a weak but persistent closed low to be near Phoenix 7 pm Tuesday, then finally ejects the system to near SW KS Wednesday PM, and then slows down its forward progress again, as it restrengthens some over Oklahoma Thursday PM. Broadbrushed at least chance/scattered category pops for at least the afternoon/evening hours for the entire three day period. Perhaps, the highest coverage and heaviest rain may occur in the Wednesday time frame as the primary trough drifts nearby. Regardless, moisture and instability will continue to support strong to severe convection each afternoon/evening, with flooding possible. Rainfall will transition to more of a wraparound regime late Thursday, favoring the SE zones, as the closed low begins its exit from Oklahoma. The closed upper low only slowly meanders into the Mississippi valley Friday, and even on Friday wraparound deformation zone rain may clip the far eastern zones. But most of SW Kansas will have a chance to dry out, with most of the rain across eastern Kansas. Saturday is expected to be dry areawide, under a passing shortwave ridge axis. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 A weak upper level disturbance will lead to chances for thunderstorms moving from eastern Colorado into western Kansas between 01 and 06z. Gusty winds and hail are possible at KLBL and KGCK between 04 and 08z. Aside from any thunderstorms, winds will be generally from the southeast at 5 to 15 kts, along with VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 63 83 63 86 / 50 30 30 20 GCK 61 87 61 88 / 60 30 30 20 EHA 59 86 59 86 / 60 30 40 30 LBL 61 86 60 86 / 50 30 40 20 HYS 62 82 64 87 / 40 40 40 10 P28 64 81 65 86 / 50 50 30 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... We are still in an active weather pattern with strong to severe storms expected east of the Rio Grande this evening, especially affecting Hudspeth and Otero counties. A stubborn upper level closed low continues to sit over Southern California, while upper level ridge over SE TX/Gulf region puts the Borderland under southwest flow. Rich moisture continues to flow into the area bringing storm chances each day through Tuesday. On Wednesday, the upper low moves northeast, ending the weather pattern we`ve been under, and starting a dry, warm period with temperatures possibly reaching triple digits by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The weather pattern persists today with strong to severe storms possible east of a dryline, located roughly along the Rio Grande. Low level moisture remains entrenched in our eastern zones, with dew points in the 50s this afternoon. However the NAM and HRRR hint at the dryline moving east over the next few hours, possibly relegating most storm development to the eastern counties this evening. Convective allowing models have decent agreement on storms moving northeast from Mexico into Hudspeth and Otero counties early evening. Destabilization will continue to occur this afternoon, with severe parameters reaching 1K-2K J/KG of MUCAPE, 40-50 knots of 0-6KM shear, strong low level lapse rates and PWATS at .8-1", creating the potential for large hail, severe wind and heavy rain for storms that form. Most storm activity will end around midnight. Monday afternoon, the upper level low slowly moves closer, increasing diffluence aloft. The dryline will still be draped across the CWA, but located further west along the Continental Divide. This will allow deep moisture and instability to flow further west, expanding strong to severe thunderstorm chances across the Borderland. The ridge slides east on Tuesday placing upper low in Arizona by the evening. Strong forcing for ascent in a moist, unstable airmass will continue the severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night -- again, east of the Rio Grande. Wednesday, the upper level low moves north of the CWA. This will flush out the moisture, bringing dewpoints down into 20s/30s, thus ending the overall weather pattern we`ll have experienced for roughly a week by this time. As the low lifts north, moisture will go with with it. However, models are hinting at the chance for storms clipping the Gila and Sacramento regions Wednesday evening. On Thursday, upper level ridging moves into the southwest, which will start a dry and warm period through the weekend, with temperatures increasing a few degrees each day. At this time the official forecast does not reflect 100 degree temperatures, but by the weekend, we will be close. The average starting date for triple digits is June 14, so the potential to reach 100 is there. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...Valid 03/00Z-04/00Z... P6SM SKC-FEW150 west of the Rio Grande overnight with FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 and isolated to scattered VRB25G45KTS 1-3SM TSRAGS BKN030-040 east. Most thunderstorm activity should be over by 06Z over the east but moisture will push westward overnight and additional development is expected along and east of the Continental Divide after 18Z. Winds will vary between west to southwest over western half of area to east to southeast at 5-15KTS across the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... The area will continue to deal with dryline moving back and forth across the area through the beginning of the upcoming week. Daily thunderstorm development is expected through Tuesday along and east of the divide with best chances over Otero and Hudspeth counties. These storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. An upper low which is helping force storm development will move over the region by midweek and flush the moisture out. As it does so, temperatures will warm and humidities will fall back into the single digits to lower teens. Could have a couple near critical days Wednesday and Thursday with winds increasing out of the west. High temps over the lowlands could approach the century mark by next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 92 66 91 / 30 30 20 30 Sierra Blanca 63 84 61 85 / 50 30 50 50 Las Cruces 62 90 61 89 / 10 20 20 20 Alamogordo 63 90 61 90 / 30 30 40 30 Cloudcroft 49 66 48 66 / 30 40 50 60 Truth or Consequences 63 91 61 90 / 0 20 20 20 Silver City 57 84 55 82 / 0 10 10 10 Deming 59 92 59 91 / 0 20 10 10 Lordsburg 58 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 92 66 90 / 20 30 20 30 Dell City 64 90 62 90 / 50 30 50 40 Fort Hancock 68 93 66 91 / 40 30 50 40 Loma Linda 65 85 62 84 / 30 30 40 40 Fabens 69 93 66 91 / 30 30 30 30 Santa Teresa 63 91 63 90 / 20 30 20 20 White Sands HQ 69 90 65 90 / 20 30 20 20 Jornada Range 60 90 60 89 / 20 20 20 20 Hatch 60 92 60 91 / 0 20 20 20 Columbus 64 92 62 91 / 0 20 10 10 Orogrande 65 89 63 89 / 30 30 40 30 Mayhill 53 76 52 76 / 40 30 50 60 Mescalero 52 77 51 76 / 30 40 50 50 Timberon 50 74 50 74 / 40 30 50 50 Winston 49 84 49 84 / 0 20 20 20 Hillsboro 58 89 57 88 / 0 20 10 10 Spaceport 58 89 58 89 / 10 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 50 85 50 82 / 0 20 10 10 Hurley 54 86 55 85 / 0 20 10 0 Cliff 48 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 87 57 86 / 0 20 0 10 Animas 57 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 92 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 33/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 A brief rain shower/sprinkle edged into Dawson County early this morning before dissipating and the remaining daytime hours have featured dry and seasonal conditions. The pattern aloft continues to feature an upper trough/closed low pressure system across NV/CA, ridging across the interior CONUS and a closed low pressure system in the northern Great Lakes region with the trough extending through the Ohio Valley. A the surface, high pressure was oriented across eastern Neb this morning and the ridge axis will gradually migrate east through IA today, resulting in easterly winds transitioning southeast. Convection is expected to initiate to our west again later today along the front range/High Plains in the upslope flow regime and as a lead shortwave trough lifts out of the western system. High resolution models are not in complete agreement on how organized convection will be when it reaches our cwa toward 05Z Monday or shortly thereafter. Storms are expected to sustain overnight aided by upper support with the progressing shortwave trough and a 30-40kt low level jet. The instability axis expands into our western cwa tonight and cannot rule out the potential for a few strong/severe storms (western counties) for a few hour during the first part of the night, with wind/hail the main storm threats. While the threat for severe weather should decrease overnight, we are still expecting showers/storms to cross much of our area tonight/Monday morning before departing. Temps Monday will be dependent upon when storms depart and cloud cover with 70s for highs still in the ballpark. South winds will be on the increase during the afternoon with gusts around 20 mph possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 There should be a lull in shower/storm activity Monday afternoon, then in a similar regime to the past couple of days, storms are expected to develop to our west along the high plains and track into our area Monday night. Will also need to monitor location of any outflow boundaries from storms tonight/Monday morning (NAMnest solution interesting with late aftn/eve development along potential outflow boundary in our eastern cwa). Instability is better across our area by late Monday and dynamics are favorable with another progressing perturbation and stronger 40-50kt nocturnal low level jet Monday night. A severe weather threat continues on Monday with wind/hail again the primary storm hazards and SPC Day 2 outlook outlines our cwa in a marginal severe weather risk. In addition, precipitable water values average an inch to an inch and a half Monday and storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, with our entire cwa in a marginal risk for excessive rain. Tuesday daytime should see a break from precipitation and we start to see the results of the warm air settling across our area with temps topping out in the mid 80s for highs. The western upper low pressure system lifts out mid to late/week crossing either the Southern or Central Plains (depending on the model - GFS track KS/MO and ECMWF track OK/AR). Precip chances for the middle/latter part of the week will be dependent upon model track and details will be refined as models come into better agreement. Extended models indicate we should see a break in precipitation in between systems late this week or early next weekend, then attention turns to the next approaching upper trough moving from the Pacific Northwest and then across the northern/central Rockies/Plains. Another round of showers/storms will be associated with this system with cooler air in its wake. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 VFR conditions until thunderstorms arrive. The HRRR shows the potential for thunderstorms at both terminals after 6z tonight. Other guidance keeps the potential for thunderstorms off and on through morning. Decided to keep the prevailing thunderstorm potential until the mid-morning hours before it exits to the east. This may be a bit too long and will allow later shifts to adjust. Ceilings will become MVFR as thunderstorms move through with periods of IFR possible in the heavier rain/storms. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist into the morning and early afternoon hours Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fay LONG TERM...Fay AVIATION...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
624 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching south across central Canada and the northern Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Scattered high based cu popped by late morning over central WI and near the U.P. border, but otherwise, quiet and cool conditions prevail across the region. Temperatures remain stuck in the 50s across much of the northwoods, which sets up a potential frost well for later tonight. Frost and freeze potential remain the main forecast concerns in this part of the forecast. Tonight...High pressure will become centered across the region, which will set up nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Some cirrus may invade the region from the northwest, but models indicate that moisture thins out as it moves into northwest WI. Thinking temps will largely be 4-5 degrees colder than last night across the northwoods, which places low temps in the upper 20s to middle 30s range. Temps are projected to be near the threshold for frost over far northeast WI, like Menominee, northern Oconto, and southern Marinette counties, and will expand the frost advisory to error on the side of caution. Elsewhere, under clear skies once the cu dissipate, should see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Monday...High pressure will shift east of the region and return flow will start to move into the region from the west. Some light rain appears possible over the arrowhead of Minnesota into Lake Superior, but most guidance indicates this precip should remain north of the region. Should see more clouds arrive tomorrow, in general, to accompany the warmer temps. Readings should remain comfortable, however, and mainly range from the middle 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 A relatively benign week of weather is expected, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper level disturbance sweeps through. A chance for light showers will linger into Wednesday, but then surface-based high pressure will invade the region and bring dry conditions at least until the weekend. Expect above-normal high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Near-normal high temperatures in the 70s are expected for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 High pressure will bring VFR conditions to the TAF sites through the TAF period. As the high shifts east Monday afternoon, a gradual increase in clouds is anticipated. Light and variable winds tonight will become southerly on Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ010>013-018- 019-021-073. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for WIZ005. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ML AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
937 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures are expected this week, with a cold front bringing slight cooling and drying briefly, Monday night to Tuesday. Signals of a wetter pattern are beginning to emerge, for late this week and next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 930 PM Sunday...Forecast updated to remove any mention of precip over land for the remainder of the tonight period, as all tstm activity has shifted offshore. Patchy fog also possible, especially over areas that received rainfall this evening. Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sunday...Convection once again starting right on time via HRRR on and east of the seabreeze where richer theta-e air resides. Expect this to continue off and on until loss of daytime heating begins. I have isolated to low chance pops along these areas for the next few hours. Beyond this a decent cold front will move across late tonight with cooler and drier air at least along the coast to advect in. The front should move across quietly as most guidance keeps activity with this feature to the north. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast as the approach and passage of the front should keep the boundary layer somewhat mixed. Cooler Tuesday morning with some upper 50s showing up and highs Monday afternoon in the upper 80s or so. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Cooler than normal start. Atmosphere wise, this period largely marked by deep, dry 750-500 mb dry layer, inhibitive to measurable pcpn hopes until late Wednesday as the mid-level cap erodes on moistening NW trajectories. This coupled with return flow, rising dewpoints, and short-wave energy, will boost notably local rain chances late Wednesday. Perhaps a last chance to `open windows` early Tuesday in wake of a cold frontal passage Monday night, drier, cooler, noticeable. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...`Scent of Rain` on the horizon coming a bit better in focus on the ECMWF/GFS lenses. This relies on a solution that carries a current Baja upper low eastward very slowly, and east across the MS valley next weekend, ushering a wetter air mass into the Carolinas. Short-wave ridge ahead of this feature to bring potentially a hot day Thursday, before increasing rain chances into the weekend. Thus it does appear, there is a chance to decrease rainfall deficits across the region into, and through next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 0Z....As last of convection slowly moves off the coast to the southeast, few to scattered clouds will linger for majority of TAF period. MVFR/IFR fog, possibly stratus is likely at ILM in the early morning hours due to in part to rain received this afternoon. MVFR fog possible at LBT, CRE, and possibly MYR, but confidence is lower at those terminals and have therefore kept fog out of the forecast for now. Dry cold front to pass through the area overnight, veering the current southerly winds to northerly winds by tomorrow. Extended Outlook...Showers or thunderstorms could produce brief flight restrictions Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, mostly VFR. && .MARINE... As of 3 PM Sunday...Very light wind and wave fields currently across the waters. The southeast flow (currently) to southwest flow (a bit later) ahead of the front will increase to 10-15 knots later this evening before an offshore flow develops with the passage of a front Monday morning. The flow will quickly turn to northeast as surface high pressure builds across the Appalachians through late Monday night. Significant seas will increase slightly from the current values but not much really as the post frontal surge is rather weak and the fetch quickly changes from offshore to northeast later Monday. In the period Tuesday through Friday, mainly S-SW winds below advisory levels, minimal sea and wind hazards expected, but, into late week, we do expect an increase in cloud to sea lightning strikes. Remember, winds and seas are almost always higher in and near TSTMs. The sea spectrum will feature a regime similar to a summer pattern, SSW waves 2 ft every 4-5 seconds, and SE waves 1-2 ft every 8-9 seconds, the `Bermuda Swell`. Inshore during afternoon, sea breeze gustiness, or TSTM outflows are possible, mainly Thu/Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Sunday...Guidance has been fairly consistent on meeting coastal flooding criteria certainly at downtown Wilmington and a bit more marginal for Wrightsville Beach. Have issued an advisory for both areas and the threat will continue for several more days. && .CLIMATE... May 2019 is now in the record books and will be remembered for exceptionally hot temperatures. Many daily and monthly records were tied or broken around the area. Wilmington and Lumberton set new records for highest May average temperatures, while Florence and N. Myrtle Beach had 2nd warmest May on record. This was also the first time Wilmington has ever reached 100 degrees in May. Five consecutive days of 100+ temperatures in Florence is the fourth longest string in history, and such an event has never been recorded outside of July or August until now. For additional May 2019 records set across the area, refer to the issued Public Information Statement (PNS). && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...08 NEAR TERM...MAS/SHK SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...VAO MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 PM MST Sun Jun 2 2019 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will fluctuate only slightly through the next week with readings remaining within a few degrees of normal. The heat risk will remain in the low category, meaning those who are extremely sensitive to the heat may be impacted. No rain is expected during the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... A few clouds across central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, associated with a small saturated layer near 600 mb. Quite strong capping exists above that layer though, which is why we are seeing little to no vertical development. The broader weather patterns has changed little over the past day or two, with the cut-off low still meandering over the Mojave Desert basin. This remains a typical Rex block situation and will not change until the low feels the effect of a kicker shortwave in the westerlies to the north. While the circulation is very evident on GOES-17 water vapor channels, the system itself is not particularly cool with 500 mb temperatures only down to around -16C or so per 12Z RAOBs and afternoon RAP analysis. Across our CWA in the "warm" sector, temperatures are topping out in the mid 90s, which is still just a few degrees below normal. This is looking like the coolest day for the next 7-10. There is still an outside chance for a shower/storm over Joshua Tree NP today, but seeing little vertical convective development yet over the nearby larger mountains does not bode well for the park`s lower elevation. This remains in line with the 12Z HREF members and recent HRRR runs. Models continue with the expected forecast evolution of the cut- off low meandering toward Yuma by Tuesday morning, with not much resulting change in our sensible weather. Interestingly, temperatures will likely warm slightly as the low weakens, fills, and relative heights increase. By Thursday, the low will move further east toward the Texas Panhandle, leaving our forecast area under shortwave ridging. Another degree or two of warming is possible. Southeast California and southwest Arizona will likely see their warmest day yet of the year on Wednesday with afternoon temps climbing a few degrees above normal. NWS HeatRisk will remain in the Toward the weekend, a deeper low will move into the Pacific Northwest, which will bring our heights down and induce some very modest cooling. That could be very short lived though as that low lifts into the Canadian Prairie and the high over northern Mexico intensifies and expands a bit northward. Needless to say, lower elevation communities will be adding several triple digit days to their annual count coming up. Typically through June 2, Phoenix will have seen 12 such days already, compared to the two we have had so far (which is the fewest since 1998). Phoenix averages 110 days of triple digit temperatures each year. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2340 UTC. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: A persistent upper low will remain to the west of Arizona through at least Monday afternoon keeping dry south-southwest flow aloft in place across Arizona resulting in little or no change to the weather pattern for the TAF sites. Basically, the TAFs represent a persistence forecast with the next 24 hours looking very much like what occurred over the past couple of days. The greater Phoenix area will continue to see locally breezy southwest winds late this afternoon and early evening, becoming lighter and more westerly after 03z. After midnight, winds will gradually return to the east/southeast before becoming south- southeast by late morning Monday. Winds will favor the south for much of the afternoon tomorrow with a few gusts into the teens possible. Due to restrictions in the use of TEMPO groups, we will keep gusts out of the TAFs Monday afternoon but they will likely occur at least briefly. Winds will eventually turn more to to the southwest by late in the afternoon. Look for FEW-SCT high based cumulus this evening with clearing skies after 03z. May see a few lingering decks near 10k feet overnight, and some more afternoon cumulus on Monday. Out west, skies to be generally clear next 24 hours. Winds to favor the south through the period at KBLH with a few gusts possible during the afternoon on Monday. Speeds should generally stay below 12kt. At KIPL winds to favor the southeast, with a period of west wind possible later this evening into early morning on Monday. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wednesday through Sunday: Very warm temperatures will continue through the period, though will likely be at their warmest early on. Winds will be a bit stronger Wednesday and Thursday as a weather system passes to the north, but otherwise will be typical for early June. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into a 10-15% range following fair overnight recovery. No rain is expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard operating procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Iniguez AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
859 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will gradually slide southeast through the region this evening before exiting overnight. High pressure follows the front with cooler and drier weather for the early part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 900 PM EDT Sunday... Scattered thunderstorm activity likely to continue through about 11pm or midnight before weakening more rapidly, and one or two could still be strong as they move farther into the Piedmont that previously forecast given sustained SBCAPE values in Piedmont of 1500-2000 J/kg and DCAPE still very high. Quite a few reports of trees down from Roanoke to Bedford County but at least that storm weakening a little as it moves into Campbell Co. Other scattered storms moving across far southwest part of CWA along and south of I-77 corridor may not be severe but still could produce very gusty winds and frequent lightning for next couple of hours. More isolated storms still may impact parts of southeast WV through 11pm or midnight. Made some adjustments to keep precip chances up farther east through about midnight before dropping off pretty quickly per all hi res models...and keeping chance pops in far west through about midnight as well. Previous discussion as of 218 PM EDT Sunday... Radar showing clusters of deeper convection developing along the actual cold front near the Ohio River attm with more isolated downstream coverage with a preceding surface trough along the mountains. Best ongoing instability continues across the northwest where the latest short term models slide the more organized storms into southeast West Va mainly after 20z/4PM. Then just how far southeast across the remainder of the area these storms make it remains in question given strong westerly flow in place. NamNest the most robust in bringing a line through the entire CWA while the HRRR weakens the band of storms crossing the ridges, with others having more isolated nature coverage, mainly over the north and west per convergence/upper support. For now will continue with the higher pops in the watch area and reduce chances going southeast although may take until late evening to clear the east. Cold front crosses the area overnight leading to clearing as strong cool advection for June kicks in from the northwest. May see some strato-cu get stuck under the subsidence inversion across the southwest and with upslope across the northwest until the much drier air swings in after midnight. Otrw should be much more comfortable by morning with lows in the 50s to around 60, except for a few 40s in the valleys pending the degree of any fog. Cool high pressure to build in on Monday making for a pleasant almost fall-like day under low humidity and a gusty northwest breeze. With 850 mb temperatures at or below +10 deg/C, looking at highs only in the 60s mountains to mid/upper 70s in the downslope aided warming eastern sections. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Dry cool high pressure will move over the region Monday night. Under good radiational cooling conditions, temperatures will drop into the 40s across the area, possibly some upper 30s in deeper mountain valleys. This surface high will slide off the North Carolina Coast Tuesday afternoon. While remaining under its influence, high temperatures Tuesday will range in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s to lower 80s east. With the high moving further off the coast Tuesday night, southerly flow will introduce warm moist air into the region. Overnight lows will be mild and run from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. A disturbance will move from the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night to the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning. As this system tracks over Pennsylvania in the afternoon, a frontal/outflow boundary will generate convection over the area. Even though the better jet dynamics are just to our north, instabilities and shear profiles are enough to produce some strong to severe storms over the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures for Wednesday will be slightly warmer than normal, ranging from the upper 70s over the mountains to mid 80s out east. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... An upper level ridge over the Gulf and a closed low tracking over the central Plains will combine to bring several shots of strong convection to the region starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend. With little reprieve between systems, repeated rounds of strong storms may lead to flood concerns going into next weekend. Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal through the period. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM EDT Sunday... Very busy with ongoing convection across the area. Strong upper trough/short wave energy with associated cold front moving southeast through the CWA now. Broken line of convection accompanies the front impacting all of the TAF sites this evening. There will be a period of gusty winds, heavy rain, low ceilings, and low visibilities with showers and scattered thunderstorms until 02Z in the west and 04Z in the east. Have included in most TAFs except Danville, but may need to add there based on latest radar trends. Confidence in fog development low at this point, but feel that will likely need to be added and increased with time as winds diminish and moisture from late day rain and wet ground combine to result in radiational fog development. Monday is expected to be VFR with no convection as dry northwest flow overtakes the area with Canadian air lowering dewpoints into the 40s and 50s. Should be VFR remainder of TAF valid period after 14Z Monday. Winds light and variable or light west overnight becoming northwest 10-20kts with low end gusts on Monday after 14ZZ. However will still see a decent northwest breeze with gusts to 20-25 kts on the ridges during the day. /Confidence in Forecast Parameters/ Ceilings - Moderate to High, Visibilities - Moderate until 14Z, then High in VFR Winds - Moderate to High, Thunderstorm Threat - Moderate. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR through Tuesday. Exception may be fog Tuesday morning mainly in the river valleys (KLWB). Moisture along with the threat for showers and storms will return for Wednesday into Thursday. This should bring periods of mainly diurnal sub-VFR each day, followed by patchy late night fog each morning espcly in the valleys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/SK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP EQUIPMENT...WP