Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/19
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
929 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Cool and clear night with light winds with surface high pressure.
Lows from 45 to 50 look good.
UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
00z aviation discussion updated below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Evening)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
High pressure is in charge, though there will be weak mid level warm
advection to contend with tonight and again Sunday night. Models
keep chances fairly low but a few CAMs generate weak convection
across south central counties in the morning and again spread across
the west Monday morning. BUFKIT profiles are weakly unstable and
anticipate most areas to remain dry. South winds and warmer air
aloft will allow for milder temperatures Sunday, though what is
uncertain is the degree of smoke that will also be overhead during
the day, with the HRRR suggesting it rotates back to the east though
may be a little better mixed by its return.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
A front will move through the Dakotas late Monday/early Tues
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to
scattered activity will continue Tuesday evening with shortwave
energy ejecting into the Plains from an upper trough in the southern
jet stream. The active pattern will settle a little midweek before
another low moves in at the end of the week.
Highs in the 80s will drop toward climo averages in the upper 70s
for the start of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Sunday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1027 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Forecast remains on target with reality and expectations.
No changes this cycle.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Have updated to remove pops over the northwest part of the
forecast area - Divide County area - as 88D not showing any
returns and with current dewpoint depressions it would be very
hard to get anything more than a few drops to the ground.
Satellite also shows area of cumulus decreasing in coverage
upstream.
Have also updated wind speeds as they were running ahead of
forecast. Temperatures were reaching their max for the day and
based on soundings it looks like we are mixing down an extra few
mph with that. Will interpolate back into the previous forecast
winds in the 9-10 pm time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
A warming trend will begin Sunday, with a slight chance of late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southwestern ND.
Afternoon GOES-east imagery continues to show a plume of thick
smoke emanating from Canadian wildfires that extends from near
Glasgow, MT, to Bowman, ND, and Pierre, SD. Temperatures under
the thickest smoke layer continue to run about 5 F cooler than
surrounding areas through the 19 UTC ASOS/AWOS trends. That is
consistent with research done into the August 2018 smoke events
done by NWS Aberdeen, which revealed that temperatures average
2 to 5 F cooler than MOS guidance expects. HRRR-smoke guidance,
including its 36-hour cycle valid through Sunday afternoon, has
been consistent in simulating a northeastward movement of that
area of smoke tonight and Sunday in response to backing low- and
midlevel flow. Vertically-integrated smoke output from the HRRR
also suggests decreasing concentration of the particulates with
time, and the observed minimum temperatures last night did not
reflect impact from smoke, so we relied on the multi-model blend
to construct tonight`s temperature forecast. That methodology was
used for Sunday`s high temperatures, too, because predictability
of where the thick smoke may be during peak heating is relatively
low, and due to the potential for its concentration to decrease.
Regardless, hazy or smoky skies will continue in many areas.
Otherwise, an area of altocumulus and cumulus from south central
Saskatchewan into northeastern MT likely reflects a weak impulse
aloft which CAMs through the 18 UTC HRRR have been keying on for
production of isolated showers in northwestern ND from late this
afternoon into the evening. Bouyancy will be severely restricted
by surface dewpoints in the 35-40 F range, so any showers will be
high-based and low-topped such that their depth will likely be
insufficient for the charge separation required for lightning.
On Sunday, warm air advection will ensue as southerly flow takes
shape within a broad region of surface pressure resulting from
strengthening lee side troughing. The 12 UTC multi-model blend
supported highs ranging from the mid 70s F at Jamestown to lower
80s in northwestern ND, though some uncertainty exists pending
later trends in smoke aloft. A narrow corridor of greater-quality
return flow moisture with surface dewpoints in the 50s F is also
expected to reach southwestern ND by late afternoon, contributing
to around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms may initiate
along a northward-reaching segment of lee troughing in southeast
MT or northwestern SD, then move into southwestern ND late Sunday
afternoon or Sunday evening, but effective-layer shear is forecast
to be marginal for organized storms given the expected instability,
so the prospects for severe weather are low. Moreover, height
rises are forecast aloft Sunday night, suggesting the probability
of any convection sustaining itself or new, elevated convection
forming in a broad warm air advection regime is low.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
A warm and summerlike period is expected next week, with several
chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
The 12 UTC global deterministic and ensemble model suites concur
that a 500 mb ridge axis will cross the area Monday in advance of
a low-amplitude shortwave trough expected to reach the western
Dakotas by late afternoon. Persistent southerly flow will likely
allow surface dewpoints to reach the lower 60s F along and east
of a north-south-oriented pressure trough by afternoon -- albeit
likely lower than the mid 60s F advertised by the 12 UTC GFS,
which is an outlier. Given steep midlevel lapse rates around 7
C/km, MLCAPE is expected to reach the 2000 J/kg range with minimal
capping in support of thunderstorm development. However, deep-
layer wind fields will be weak with effective-layer shear less
than 30 kt in all of the members composing the 09 UTC SREF, as
well as the 12 UTC GFS, ECMWF, and NAM. That will likely serve as
a mitigating factor to the overall magnitude of any severe-storm
risk, but given the steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE,
isolated marginally-severe storms with large hail and damaging
winds are plausible.
Thereafter, the multi-model consensus supports mean westerly flow
aloft with occasional impulses driving some thunderstorm chances
through the middle and latter part of the week, before a deeper
and more amplified trough moves into the Pacific Northwest by
Friday or Saturday. While instability will likely be present in
advance of any impulses in the flow that can generate a mass-field
response capable of moisture return, deep-layer shear appears to
be relatively lackluster until the more amplified trough begins to
approach the area. Thus, while there is apt to be a non-zero risk
of severe storms on some days this week, a more organized severe
storm threat may hold off until late week or next weekend. Having
said that, predictability of the deeper trough is modest at best
at this juncture, and NAEFS anomalies are not yet anything to
write home about, either. Otherwise, it will be warm through most
of the period with highs mainly in the 80s F, perhaps warmest on
Monday ahead of the surface trough when NAEFS data supports 850 mb
temperatures in the 90th percentile range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
VFR and relatively light winds are expected across western
and central North Dakota through the 06Z TAF cycle. Smoke will
persist aloft over the southwest tonight. Guidance suggests
this smoke aloft will advance north and east on Sunday. Also on
Sunday, isolated thunderstorms will be possible after 02/22Z south
of KDIK as a low pressure trough approaches the MT/ND border.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JPM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
932 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an axis of weak ridging in the
central and southern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of low
pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an attendant
quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending eastward across southwest
and south central Kansas a little north of the Oklahoma border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Small morning MCS was exiting SW KS into NW Oklahoma late this
morning. An outflow boundary eminating from this activity is noted
on satellite, trailing through the northern panhandles and far SW
zones. Mesoanalysis shows instability building strongly and
quickly just south of this outflow boundary, with CAPE already in
excess of 3000 J/kg as of 11 AM. The latest HRRR iterations
redevelop convection along this SW KS/OK border region by 3-4 pm,
with 12z NAM/GFS subsequently spreading a convective complex
across the southern zones overnight tonight. Consensus from models
is pretty clear that convective coverage will favor areas south
of US 50 through tonight, and many northern zones may remain dry.
With broad upper ridging aloft, support aloft is weak/marginal,
but directional shear and abundant CAPE should allow for some
convective organization, at least early in the convective cycle.
Initial risk from early storm development late this afternoon will
be large hail, when CAMs suggest several left- moving supercells
are possible. With the old outflow boundary in the vicinity acting
as a source for additional vorticity, can`t rule out a tornado or
two through this evening, most likely in the Elkhart- Liberal
vicinity through 7 pm. After that, threats will transition to
heavy, flooding rain and strong winds. Slight risk (15% wind/hail,
2% tornado probabilities from SPC) are justified.
Tonight, behind any convective complex, moist easterly upslope
components will encourage stratus and fog development through
Sunday morning. 12z NAM in particular is bullish with fog
development Sunday morning, and with wet soils/standing water will
need to monitor for fog coverage/impact.
After a probable small break in convective coverage early/midday
Sunday, all models regenerate thunderstorms in the region Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. Models all agree on this; the question
is one of mode, placement, severity and hazards. 12z NAM/GFS
seem to fall in line with SPC Day 2, with scattered supercells
from NE New Mexico to SE Colorado initially, growing upscale into
another complex as activity evolves eastward into Kansas Sunday
evening. Broadbrushed chance category pops for all zones Sunday PM
with this expected evolution. With established moist SEly
boundary layer inflow late Sunday, any convective complex may be
more organized/intense, compared to Saturday`s activity.
Through the weekend, will need to keep abreast of the flooding
threat. Will continue to assess the need for a flash flood watch,
with repeated rounds of heavy rain expected through Sunday and
beyond. In this pattern, training heavy rains over wet soils will
likely be the primary hazard, more so than hail/wind.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
A stagnant but convectively active period is expected Monday
through Wednesday. A weak 577 dm upper low and elongated trough
centered in southern California at 7 pm Monday will crawl eastward
to southern Arizona Tuesday, and weakening to an open shortwave
trough as it arrives on the plains Wednesday. Various weak
disturbances embedded in the flow, ahead of this approaching
system, will interact with reservoirs of instability to produce
daily rounds of mainly afternoon/nighttime thunderstorms each day
Monday through Wednesday. Assessing severe potential on each of
these days is largely a futile endeavor more than a day in
advance, as the previous day`s convection will determine coverage
and outcome of the next day`s convection. It`s getting to be that
time of year when, in the absence of stronger synoptic forcing,
mesoscale/outflow influences become more important in convective
evelution. That all said, the clear message is: repeated rounds
of thunderstorms and heavy rain are appearing likely for this
three day period on top of very wet antecedent soil conditions.
Flash flooding will be a concern through Wednesday, and a flash
flood watch may eventually be needed. Pending mesoscale details,
broadbrushed chance category pops for most zones for this three
day period. With the moisture supply remaining high, and no
change in airmass, temperatures will change little on a daily
basis, with highs in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s.
A drier pattern is expected to emerge beginning Thursday. 12z
ECMWF strengthens the upper low a bit to 575 dm over NE Oklahoma
at 7 pm Thursday, which would spread sinking subsidence over SW KS
and put an end to the thunderstorm machine. GFS and the model
blend is a little slower with this, hanging onto chance pops for
the eastern zones for one more day Thursday. Certainly by Friday,
as the upper low migrates into the Mississippi valley, and ridging
builds along the spine of the Rockies, a dry forecast looks
appropriate with drier subsidence in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Still expecting scattered convection near GCK, LBL and DDC over
the next few hours. Using the HRRR as a guide, included convective
TEMPO groups through 04z Sun. Low confidence if any terminal will
be directly impacted, and continued to keep HYS dry. With moist
upslope boundary layer flow tonight, models continue to produce
stratus, but have backed off on forecasting IFR ceilings through
Sunday morning. Consensus is VFR/MVFR stratus will prevail. Outside
of convection, light easterly wind components will prevail through
Sunday morning. After 15z Sun, SE winds increase, gusting in the 20-
25 kt range. Another round of convection is expected Sunday
afternoon and night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 79 61 81 / 40 30 50 30
GCK 58 79 59 84 / 30 20 50 20
EHA 57 82 60 86 / 40 30 60 20
LBL 59 80 63 84 / 40 30 60 20
HYS 57 76 61 79 / 10 10 50 50
P28 61 79 62 80 / 40 40 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Relatively quiet weather pattern sets in the near-term with
surface high pressure building into the region tonight through
Monday. There remains a very low potential for convection to
develop across the far southeast this afternoon as a cold front
continues to exit the forecast area. However, with no evidence of
convective initiation (other than in northeast MO) and the front
likely to exit the forecast area by 22z, the window for storms and
thus any severe threat is limited to a couple southeast counties.
The latest HRRR, RAP, and NAM12 suggest convection further
southeast later this afternoon. Kept with pops through 23z across
the far southeast today. There is smoke over the state this
afternoon and looks to gradually shift south tonight. However, low
confidence this smoke shield will impact temperatures tonight as
it remains very thin.
High pressure dominants the weather Sunday and shifts east of the
state by Monday. The HRRR suggests the smoke to linger across the
state tomorrow, but with the smoke across the state today and not
really impacting the maximum temperatures, trended warmer for
temperatures Sunday. High cloud cover should hinder the max temps
a bit on Monday even though there is some decent southerly flow
throughout the day.
Tuesday through Saturday...warmer temperatures and higher
dewpoints return Tuesday and Wednesday. Dew points look to rise
back into upper 60s to lower 70s and there is a weak shortwave to
provide convection potential Tuesday morning over the south. A
boundary appears to stall out in the vicinity of the MO/IA border
through Thursday and a few additional shortwaves will provide more
storm chances during this time. However, confidence is low with
depicting any sever weather potential due to lack of continuity
with timing of the shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Confidence is high in mostly clear, VFR conditions through the
period with nothing beyond faint smoke aloft tonight and possibly
FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Relatively quiet weekend to kick off June, as surface ridge moves
across the region tonight into Sunday. Seeing some thinning of the
smoke aloft through this evening, with a mostly clear sky and light
winds allowing for comfortable lows in the upper 40s. HRRR indicates
smoke will make a return from the northwest on Sunday. While it has
not seemed to have a tremendous impact on daytime temperatures to
this point, that combined with light low level flow within the ridge
should keep highs a shade on the cool side of normal for Sunday.
Will be warmer than today, though, with mid 70s expected most areas.
Dry conditions will prevail for most locations, however, did add a
chance of showers/storms into our far southwest Sunday afternoon, as
a subtle wave and weak warm advection slide into that area. Expect
this activity would diminish toward evening with loss of heating,
but increasing southerly low level flow and another mid-level wave
will bring a chance back to areas west of the James River late
Sunday night. In neither case are we expecting any severe storms,
nor heavy rain, just spotty light to moderate showers and isolated
lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Breezier southerly winds expected for Monday, though low level
temperatures remain on the cool side, with near normal highs in the
mid 70s for one more day. Warmer air mass then works across the
region Tuesday, and seasonable temperatures are expected to stick
around through the end of the week, with overnight lows largely in
the mid 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Pattern is a bit unsettled through the early part of next week, as
weak jet streak ejects out of southern Rockies upper trough Monday
night. Precipitable water values Monday night-Tuesday night near the
90th percentile of climatology, so while rainfall is expected to be
scattered and generally light, could see some brief heavier rainfall
rates with individual cells.
Wednesday-Friday currently favoring dry conditions, as the southern
stream trough slides east through the southern Plains, while ridging
in the northern stream dominates our weather. Northern stream trough
begins to push across the northern Rockies by next Saturday, but
timing and strength vary greatly among the various models, so will
carry nothing more than a low chance of precipitation for the end of
this forecast period for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with mainly clear
skies and light winds.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
The latest RAP analysis and satellite radar imagery show low
pressure situated over southern Wisconsin and a warm front
extending east across into lower Michigan early this afternoon.
Convection from this morning has moved off into lower Michigan.
But with a shortwave trough moving into southwest WI and minor MU
capes spreading from Wisconsin Rapids to Manitowoc, think
scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to impact
central and east-central WI through the rest of the afternoon.
Skies are mostly clear over northwest WI and central MN, while a
cold front is moving south near International Falls, MN. Forecast
concerns generally revolve around precip and cloud trends,
followed by temps and frost potential.
Tonight...As the low moves away from the region across southern
lower Michigan in the evening, a few spotty showers may linger
over east-central WI through 7-8 pm. Some of the hourly models
are indicating a few showers also developing over far northeast WI
during the evening due to weak surface convergence and
instability. But with ample dry air over far northern WI and the
U.P. (dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s), think the models
are overdoing the precip potential. So will show a general
decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast and a dry forecast
after 8 pm. The cold front near International Falls will likely
move across northern WI late. Temps are quite chilly behind the
front, but the pressure gradient looks a little too tight for
winds to decouple for a significant amount of time. Some frost
appears possible in the cold spots across the northwoods, and will
keep a mention in the HWO. Don`t think it will be widespread
enough for a frost advisory. Lows ranging from the upper 30s in
the north to the upper 40s over the southern Fox Valley.
Sunday...High pressure will build southward behind the cold front.
Although will likely see some diurnal cu build over northern WI by
midday, most areas should see plenty of sunshine. Temps will be
cool by early June standards, and range from the upper 50s in the
far north to the mid 60s over the southern Fox Valley.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Frost is a possibility Sunday night as a big surface high drops
south from still frozen Hudson`s Bay. Winds should be very light
or calm, and precipitable water values near all time lows for this
time of the year. Northcentral and central Wisconsin are the most
likely to have a frost, but low lying areas elsewhere could see
frost too.
Monday will be a couple degrees below normal but sunny. The remainder
of the week should have normal or above average temperatures as a
flat upper ridge slowly moves east from the Plains and low level
temperatures warm.
A shortwave trough moving through the westerlies could bring
showers or thunderstorms Tuesday, but moisture seems lacking for
significant precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
A weak cold front and upper level disturbance continued to produce
some cloud cover and even an isolated shower or two late this
evening, so clearing has been delayed until the overnight hours.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail, as ceilings are mainly
in the 6000-9000 ft AGL range. Good flying conditions will
continue into Sunday with only SCT high-based cumulus clouds and
wind gusts from the northwest at less than 20 kts. The winds will
diminish by early evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
712 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
- Storms ending this evening
- Much cooler Sunday and Monday
- Frost possible northern area Monday morning
- Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
It would seem to me the best instability will remain south of our
CWA for this evening. There is an upstream MCV over WI/IL heading
this way and that in conjunction with the final wave on the front
will bring additional showers and a few thunderstorms to this
area during the evening. However, the latest RAP model shows the
best instability to be south of I-94 and the developing low level
jet ahead of the final wave on the front also stays south of our
CWA this evening. It should also be pointed out nearly all of the
high resolution models did not do well on the strength and
coverage of the convection over Lower Michigan this morning into
early this afternoon. So, once again the MCV will bring some
showers and thunderstorms this evening but the strong storms will
be near and south of I-80.
Once that is done we get the northern stream jet to dig south into
southern Lower Michigan Sunday. We are on the cyclonic side of
the polar jet too. This means we will be in deep cold air Sunday
so I would imagine it will be cooler day than today with mostly
clear skies. The treat of frost continues over our northern CWA
inland of Lake Michigan Monday night due to light to calm surface
winds and clear skies.
Beyond that we get another Pacific system coming at us on the
upper jet in the Tuesday evening into Wednesday time frame. It
does not look all that organized so at this point I expect
limited impacts in our area from that system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Showers and thunderstorms will continue at GRR/LAN/AZO/BTL/JXN
through about 03Z/11PM with mainly showers at MKG. Clearing skies
are then expected overnight making way for VFR conditions for much
of the day Sunday. Northwest winds will become predominant through
the day on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
I do not see much in the way of marine issues in the short term.
We do get that strong north flow in the cold air Sunday, this
could be one of those events where winds and waves are higher than
the models suggest even so at this point I do not plan on issuing
a small craft advisory for Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Borchardt
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1003 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
...Overnight Mesoscale Update...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
The SFC cold front appears to have stalled over the past few hours,
per SFC obs and radar, and now stretches from southern Missouri to
southeast Colorado. Along the portion of the front that resides over
eastern Colorado/western Kansas, clusters of thunderstorms have been
ongoing for several hours. At the same time, an MCS is ongoing
across the TX Panhandle. The Texas storms are likely being
maintained by modest, elevated moisture transport, and these may
actually limit/delay the better moisture return further north into
Kansas.
The storms in CO/WRN KS appear to be aided by a zone of weak WAA. As
storms move/build east, there may be a tendency to follow an old
outflow boundary, laid out by convection earlier this morning, that
stretches from SW KS into central OK. Short term model guidance has
struggled with this evolution, although recent RAP runs appear to
have a decent handle. With the front/outflow boundary in the area
and some lingering instability, I decided to keep some low-end pops
in through Sunday morning, but it does appear the better chance of
storms will remain south of our CWA, where the better lift/moisture
convergence will reside. Should any storms make it into our area, it
appears gusty winds and perhaps some hail will be the primary
threats.
Martin
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Despite rather weak surface convergence, isolated to widely
scattered convection is still expected to develop by early this
evening along the southward sagging weak cold front as it moves
across southern Kansas. Initial updrafts will move into east
central Kansas with development further west into south central
Kansas, though perhaps more isolated initially with a large hail
risk. Rather modest low and mid-level flow should tend to favor
multi-cell clusters later this evening with a damaging wind
threat as storms push toward the Oklahoma border. Localized heavy
rainfall could also result in isolated flash flooding this
evening. Expect the bulk of convection to push south into northern
Oklahoma by late evening/overnight, though will keep modest
chances near the Oklahoma border. While we will maintain chances
for convection through early this week, it appears the better
chances/coverage may evolve during the late night and morning
hours, as the central high Plains will be favored for late day
convection with the mean westerly flow moving the storm
clusters/potential mesoscale systems across portions of the
forecast area. This looks especially so late Sunday night through
Monday morning as better moisture flux in the return southerly
flow should maintain convection moving into the area, perhaps
festering into midday Monday. A more northerly track may be
favored late Monday night across north central Kansas in concert
with the better moisture flux and elevated baroclinic zone.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
It still looks periodically wet and stormy for the mid-week
periods, as the upper trof/low over the northern Baja/southwest
CONUS moves eastward into the central/southern Plains by Wednesday
night/Thursday. There may be support developing for decreasing
precip chances by the end of the week, if trends continue to
move the upper low/trof eastward into the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Primary aviation concern: TSRA
A cold front continues to slowly sag south across Kansas at this
time, but is beginning to slow down/stall. Initially, the main
TSRA threat will be over southeast KS (mainly in the vicinity of
KCNU). Storms there will pose a large hail and gusty wind threat.
Beyond that area, the TSRA risk is less certain. Storms have been
developing from eastern Colorado into western Kansas, but with not
much movement. With time, there may be a tendency for storms to
build further east, potentially impacting portions of central and
south-central KS later tonight or early SUN AM. Hail will continue
to be a threat with those storms. Should this occur, CIGs would
lower, potentially into the low VFR or high MVFR range.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 63 79 64 78 / 30 20 40 60
Hutchinson 62 78 62 78 / 30 20 40 50
Newton 62 77 62 76 / 20 20 40 60
ElDorado 62 78 62 77 / 20 20 30 50
Winfield-KWLD 63 79 63 78 / 30 20 40 60
Russell 59 77 61 79 / 30 20 40 50
Great Bend 59 77 61 80 / 30 20 50 50
Salina 60 79 61 79 / 10 10 30 50
McPherson 61 78 62 78 / 20 20 40 50
Coffeyville 65 80 63 78 / 30 20 30 50
Chanute 63 79 61 76 / 40 20 30 50
Iola 62 79 61 76 / 40 10 20 50
Parsons-KPPF 64 80 62 77 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RM
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
922 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight into
Sunday morning, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will then build into the
region for the first part of the week. More seasonable
temperatures will return through mid week, along with the next
chance for precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Finally just now starting to get a few updrafts along outflow
boundary which has settled south into Hardin/Union/Delaware
Counties from large nrn OH thunderstorm complex. This boundary
will continue to fester with convection for the next few hours
as moist southwesterly flow impinges on it.
Stronger forcing for ascent was spreading into Indiana per water
vapor imagery and thunderstorms over cntl/nrn Indiana were on
the slow uptick. This has been well-advertised by numerous HRRR
runs this afternoon and evening so expect storms to fill in a
bit to the west and enter the northwestern part of the forecast
area around 1030 PM. Think there`s about a 2-3 hour window
across Mercer/Darke counties east through Delaware County from
11P-1A or so that some strong to severe storms could be seen
with wind the primary threat. The shear per the 02.00Z KILN
sounding is paltry through the depth of the sounding, but as the
night wears on further north, shear will increase somewhat to
the point that a small scale bowing segment could have some
longevity as it crosses the far northern CWA. This is especially
true with the strong outflow boundary now draped across these
counties and seemingly not going anywhere given weakening
convection further north. There`s plenty of instability and
enough warm/moist flow in the boundary layer to keep activity
near- surface based well into the overnight up there, so the
maintenance of MRGL/SLGT risks particularly on the northern part
of the forecast area seems the right call.
Think the best coverage of showers and storms overnight will be
across the north - thus highest rain chances there - and more
focused in the first part of the overnight before slow loss of
instability causes a gradual weakening of storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into Sunday morning
across our southeast but we should see an overall drying trend
as the trough axis pivots off to our east. Surface high pressure
will then build in across the region Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, leading to a decreasing cloud trend. Some cooler
air filtering in on the backside of the trough will lead to
highs on Sunday ranging from just the upper 60s northwest to
the low to mid 70s across the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large and deep upper trough will be positioned along the East
Coast to start the period. Surface high pressure forming under
the confluent flow along the western flank of the upper trough
will push across ILN, providing dry weather conditions Monday
and Tuesday.
Once the large upper trough moves east by Wednesday, a surface
boundary developing along a more zonal flow aloft, enhanced by short
wave undulations, will provide the focus for convection. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon, and
strong storms will be possible beneath the rather potent mid level
flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible Thursday
through Saturday when low pressure is forecast to lift to the
Great Lakes while the frontal boundary meanders over the region.
Temperatures are forecast to start below normal under cold advection
in the circulation around the surface high, with readings reaching
the 60s Monday afternoon. A modest amount of warm advection will
allow highs in the near normal upper 70s to around 80 for the
remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAF cycle continues previous trends in prior forecast, with
shower/thunderstorm chances on the increase this evening for
DAY/CMH/LCK, and a little less so at ILN. Least chances down at
CVG later in the night but still can`t rule out some brief
visibility and/or ceiling restrictions with any activity tonight
as the cold front drives showers and storms across the forecast
area. Highest chance of an abrupt wind shift with gusty winds
this evening will be at DAY/CMH - with these sites also in line
for the highest threat of brief IFR or MVFR restrictions.
In the wake of the cold front on Sunday morning, expect a large
area of MVFR ceilings and potentially some light fog in the
moist/cooling airmass in the wake of the front. This should lift
slowly through the morning as heating and mixing commence. Think
clouds will be a little more stubborn than usual for early June
given strong cold advection and breezy northwest winds. Expect
CVG/LUK to break out first during the late morning or early
afternoon, but northern sites /DAY...CMH...LCK/ may stay in VFR
clouds well into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Binau
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
751 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch across the southwest KILX
CWA...as the convection has shifted well S/SW into the St. Louis
metro. 00z/7pm mesoanalysis shows a regional minimum of MLCAPE and
increasing amounts of convective inhibition across central
Illinois, so am only expecting an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this evening as the cold front passes. Cooler/drier conditions are
expected overnight with lows ranging from the middle 50s far
northwest near Galesburg...to the lower 60s south of I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
19z/2pm mesoanalysis shows a moderately unstable/weakly sheared
environment across central Illinois ahead of a cold front nearing
the Mississippi River. SBCAPE values are currently in the
2500-3000J/kg range, while 0-6km bulk shear remains quite weak at
less than 30kt. Wind shear will increase slightly over the next
couple of hours as a short-wave trough evident on water vapor over
Iowa pivots into Illinois. The added synoptic lift from this
feature should be enough to trigger a broken line of convection
along the advancing cold front. HRRR has not been initializing
very well this afternoon, so its short-term forecast featuring
nearly zero convection this evening is suspect. Visible satellite
imagery is showing enhanced Cu along the front across eastern Iowa
and think this will develop further south as the afternoon
progresses. Given steep low-level lapse rates, think any storms
that develop will have the capability of producing damaging wind
gusts and large hail. Exact areal coverage still remains in
question, but will maintain likely PoPs for thunder everywhere
west of the I-55 corridor late this afternoon...then further
southeast to I-70 by mid-evening. After that, daytime instability
will wane and convection will tend to diminish as it drops toward
the Ohio River Valley by midnight. Once the front passes, skies
will gradually clear from northwest to southeast overnight...with
low temperatures ranging from the middle 50s far northwest around
Galesburg to the lower 60s along/south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
With a deep upper trough dominating eastern Canada into New
England, northwesterly flow will ensure cool/dry conditions for
central Illinois Sunday through Monday night. High temperatures
will only reach the lower to middle 70s on Sunday, with overnight
lows dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Temps will
moderate toward midweek, but are expected to remain in the 70s
through Tuesday.
Once the trough begins to break down, heights will rise across the
Midwest by the middle and end of next week as a zonal flow pattern
takes hold. A cold front will drop into the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday, then will become parallel to the upper flow and
essentially stall through the remainder of the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will become likely Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of the front...then will stick around for the rest of the
week. While not a complete washout, periods of showers/thunder are
expected through next Saturday. While it is still too early to
pinpoint any specific severe weather threat, locally heavy
rainfall may become an issue. Current projections suggest rain
amounts of 2 to 3 inches across central/southeast Illinois next
week, which will likely aggravate ongoing river flooding.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Radar trends continue to suggest the central Illinois terminals
will be missed by convection this evening. Have therefore removed
TEMPO groups in favor of a period of VCTS between 00z and 04z. The
cold front responsible for widely scattered showers/thunder is
currently just east of the Mississippi River and will push
steadily eastward this evening. Once the front passes, SW winds
will veer to NW and skies will become clear late this evening
through the overnight hours. Skies will initially be clear Sunday
morning: however, NAM Cu rule and forecast soundings indicate SCT
diurnal cloud development with bases around 5000ft from late
morning through the afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1036 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Mostly clear skies earlier this evening have given way to a BKN
cirrus shield from Missouri convection. This complex, the eastern
extent of which has been producing damaging winds in the St. Louis
metro, is forecast to move southeast and weaken over the next couple
of hours. The SW forecast area, including Bowling Green and
Russellville, stands the best chance at seeing some shower and
thunderstorm activity between Midnight-2 AM CDT.
Further northeast, thunderstorm coverage has increased a bit along
the cold front in central IL/IN. But compared to the southern MO
environment, central KY and southern IN is a bit drier with a
strengthening nocturnal inversion. Isolated thunder still looks
possible as the cold front sags south late tonight into the early
morning hours of Sunday. The severe weather threat is low.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat June 1 2019
The Ohio Valley sits under deep northwest flow while situated
between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a pair of deep
closed lows in Canada. A shortwave trough with an associated surface
cold front will swing southeastward today bringing showers and
storms to our area this evening through Sunday.
Current visible satellite shows convection under way near the
surface low centered over the IA/MO/IL border as of 01/16Z. Models
indicate showers and possible storms entering into our southern
Indiana counties as early as midnight, but the line weakens
substantially as we lose diurnal instability. Some disagreement
between short range models exists as to where the line will break
and where showers/storms will occur. NAM 3K shows the line degrade
substantially with a small cluster of activity moving south through
Scott and Clark Counties in Indiana and Jefferson through Washington
Counties in Kentucky between 02/06Z to 02/09Z before fizzling out;
whereas the HRRR has been trending towards drying the northern
portion of the line completely and bringing a weak line of showers
through our southwestern counties by around 02/08Z. In any case,
these showers and possible storms appear to be rather innocuous and
any storms that do prevail will be elevated. The only threat
associated with stronger cells will be locally gusty winds as Bufkit
soundings show close to 30kts at 1000 ft and DCAPE values pushing
800 J/kg.
Sunday looks to be a beautiful day starting off with temperatures in
the low to mid 60s and reaching highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
under mostly sunny skies. The only caveat is possible diurnally
produced showers that could pop up in the afternoon, but these would
be very isolated and brief if they occur at all.
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Sunday Night through Tuesday Night...
Combination of high pressure at the surface and a northwesterly flow
aloft will allow cool conditions Sunday Night. Places across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region will see temps drop into
the mid-upper 40s, though some of our traditional cool spots could
go into the lower 40s. Elsewhere, upper 40s to the lower 50s are
expected. Quiet weather is expected on Monday with highs generally
in the 70-75 degree range. However, some of our northeastern
Bluegrass areas may stay in the upper 60s. Lows Monday night will
be a little milder with upper 40s and lower 50s expected.
Dry weather looks to continue into Tuesday with milder temperatures
expected. Highs should average between 75 and 80 in most places,
through southern KY may warm into the lower 80s. Clouds will be on
the increase during the day and into overnight. Lows Tuesday night
look to only drop into the lower-mid 60s.
Wednesday through Saturday...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
Warm upper ridge over the Gulf looks to flatten out as a fast belt
of westerlies continue across the northern half of the US. An upper
low within the southern belt of the westerly flow is forecast to
move into the Plains by mid-week and then close off and slowly move
through the Midwest and eventually the Ohio Valley by the end of the
week. As this upper low slowly moves toward the Ohio Valley, a
fetch of tropical moisture (remnants of 91L) could be pulled
northward on the western side of the Gulf ridge and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. This will bring abnormally high moisture values
to our region setting the stage for very unsettled weather along
with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Severe threat is
certainly there in the later part of the period as we`ll have strong
westerlies aloft combined with a decent low-level flow, daytime
instability, and plenty of moisture. Some of the global model data
points to the possibility of one or more MCS type systems that could
occur. However, the temporal and spatial aspects to any certain kind
of severe weather hazard remain quite variable within the ensemble
envelope.
The bottom line here is that cloudy and unsettled weather is likely
from Wednesday through the weekend. Given the possible amount of
convection expected, several inches of rainfall will be possible
through the period. This will not be good news for the southern
Plains and into the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley where flooding
issues are ongoing. Locally, we could start to see hydro issues if
multiple bouts of MCS activity bring rounds of heavy rainfall to our
region. This will be something to watch very closely over the next
several days.
Temperatures through the period will be in the 80s with overnight
lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 755 PM EDT Sat June 1 2019
Prevailing VFR weather is anticipated through this TAF period. Skies
are currently mostly clear, but mid and high cloud cover will
increase tonight as a cold front sags southeast toward the region.
This front, along with a shortwave trough aloft, has resulted in
robust convection over Missouri, Illinois, and northern Indiana.
Expect any lingering thunderstorms to weaken when this activity
moves into southern Indiana between 03-06z tonight. Coverage of
showers and storms is very much in question overnight due to a
stabilizing airmass. Isolated storms will be possible, mainly after
midnight. But confidence in coverage/location is too low to include
in the TAF at this time. Most of the night will be dry at any one
terminal.
Southwest winds will increase ahead of this front toward dawn and
veer westerly Sunday morning. Winds will then veer NW behind the
frontal passage and become breezy with gusts to 15-20 kts in the
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...EBW
Short Term...CG
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico this afternoon are
expected to make it into or near all the terminals late this
evening. Ceilings in the MVFR category may try to make their way
into the region again on Sunday morning. However, confidence again
is low so have not included mention in the TAF at the moment.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/
DISCUSSION...
The outflow boundary that began its day in the Panhandles of
Oklahoma and northeast Texas is working its way south toward our
CWA. H50 height falls by sunset along with increased moisture
convergence and surface pressure falls in southeast New Mexico
should lead to showers and thunderstorms developing along the ridge
axis and slowly moving into the southern Texas Panhandle and South
Plains this evening and later tonight. One caveat, if the outflow
holds together and makes into the northern South Plains by early
this evening, it would increase convergence out ahead of the
expected convection and also increase low level helicity further
adding energy to any isolated updrafts. The HRRR is having
difficulty picking up on the feature unfortunately.
These storms should eventually organize enough to produce a line of
storms that will move off the Caprock into the Rolling Plains by
early tomorrow morning. The SPC has our CWA in a Slight Risk for
storms for the remainder of today and the overnight. The strongest
of these storms may become marginally severe with wind gusts up to
65 MPH and hail up to the size of quarters. The best chance for
severe wind gusts will be later tonight when the storm activity
becomes slightly more organized and moves off to the east. Tomorrow
will unfold very similar to today, except a little farther east.
With that in mind, we can expects showers and thunderstorms to
develop closer to, or in our CWA. The impacts for tomorrow will be
similar as today, large hail and strong wind gusts, but instead of
storms initiating to our west and impacting us later in the day,
we`ll see new initiation by late morning Sunday on the Caprock.
Another line segment is possible overnight tomorrow into Monday, but
that should occur farther north and move into western Oklahoma, but
may clip the northern Rolling Plains on its way east after midnight.
Not much change in the pattern as we head into the new work week, as
storms are expected to develop Monday evening near the NM/TX state
line and gradually progress through our CWA as we go through the
night. Given the persistent troughing to the west, the forecast is
similar into the middle of the week before the trough finally lifts
and moves east late in the week. Daytime highs will remain at or
slightly below seasonal norms between now and the end of the
week, given the moisture and cloud cover, with mild overnight lows.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
730 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019
Current RAP surface analysis shows a low pressure system just north
of Lake Superior with a trough and association cold front stretching
to the south across northern Minnesota and Lake Superior. This
trough will initially pass into Upper Michigan this afternoon with a
secondary trough passing through Sunday morning. As this trough
passes through Sunday, colder air will push into the UP, limiting
daytime highs to the 50s. A few spots in Menominee county may see a
60 or two tomorrow. Brisk NW winds will push through tomorrow
morning through the afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 knots across the
UP, especially central, east, and the Keweenaw Peninsula. There is a
chance for some isolated frost tonight, but with clear skies and a
cold front, but suspect winds to remain high enough to limit the
frost factor substantially.
This will be a dry cold front, with gusty conditions, and current
NAM forecast soundings show mixing through 800mb. This mixing would
bring dewpoints into the low 20s and RHs into the mid 20s along the
WI border. Despite the dry and windy conditions, high temperatures
tomorrow in NW flow from Lake Superior will stay near 50 degrees as
areas near the WI border may reach to 60 degrees. This will lead to
some elevated fire weather concerns, but temperatures remain too low
for anything more than an elevated risk. Check back in for evening
forecast for updates to RH and winds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 421 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019
Well, looks like frost could be a concern after all tomorrow night,
thanks to surface high pressure and generally clear skies allowing
for plenty of radiational cooling. Temperatures will dip down into
the low to mid 30s in interior locations, upper 30s along the
lakeshores. Otherwise, with said high pressure hanging around
through Monday, quiet conditions are anticipated to prevail.
By Tuesday, high pressure will have exited and left the door open
for a weak shortwave to traverse through, riding along the periphery
of an upper-level ridge well to the south. Decent instability looks
to be available for thunderstorm development, especially with
diurnal heating. Once the associated surface low pushes through late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, relatively benign weather returns to Upper
Michigan, with perhaps just some sporadic shower chances. The next
chance for widespread mentionable precip looks to hold off through
the end of the week.
Widespread 70s for highs look to dominate throughout this forecast
period, with the coolest day occurring on Monday. Lows will respond
accordingly, lingering near normal for early June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019
Although a cold front will pass tonight, low-levels will remain
relatively dry, allowing VFR conditions to prevail thru this fcst
period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. In the wake of the front on Sun, daytime
heating and resulting building of the mixed layer will result in
gusty nw to n winds, mainly at KCMX/KSAW where gusts to around 20kt
are expected.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019
NW winds will ramp up to 25 knots by Sunday morning behind a cold
front crossing the lake. Winds will relax by Sunday evening and
remain below 20 knots through the forecast period with generally
benign weather.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1104 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control tonight. A cold front
moves across the area late Sunday followed by high pressure
Monday into Tuesday. A series of fronts will then move across
the region through the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Convection over Orange County in New York continues to weaken as
it works east into more stable environment. Latest HRRR supports
this trend as well as the dissipation of the activity farther to
the west across eastern PA.
There remains some uncertainty with convective activity
overnight as some of the guidance maintains enough lift and
instability to allow some of the weakening convection upstream
to work into the area. While this scenario seems unlikely with
a stable, weakly sheared environment in place, will maintain a
low chance of showers across the western two thirds of the area
overnight.
Lows tonight will be similar to those of the previous night and
with some extra moisture in the boundary layer for those
locations that get any showers or thunderstorms and from another
night of onshore flow, fog will develop again, and it could be
dense in spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper weak shortwave, and sfc wave move east in the morning.
Then longwave upper trough will deepen as the trough axis pivots
east across the Great Lakes region. Individual vorticity maxima
rotate through the mean trough. Surface low pressure develops
and deepens as it tracks across southern Quebec during the
afternoon. A trailing cold front will approach from the west and
pass by late afternoon/evening. With cooling temps aloft along
with warming boundary layer and increasing low level moisture,
moderate instability should develop in advance of the cold
front during the afternoon. Effective shear of 35-45 kt should
support strong to severe storms with the main focus along the
cold front. A few strong cells may develop along a pre-frontal
trough, but in general, a dry morning will give way to
increasing shower/thunderstorm chances in the afternoon, west
to east. Per SPC, damaging wind will likely be the primary
threat, though any discrete storms will also have some potential
for large hail as well.
With expected strengthening southerly flow, temps should range
from the upper 70s/around 80 west of the Hudson River, to the
upper 60s near the coast of LI and SE CT.
Showers and thunderstorms end from west to east Sunday night
but could linger across eastern sections as the front will still
be just offshore by early Monday.
Sunshine Monday will likely give way to a few more clouds in
the afternoon as the upper trough axis and lowering heights
move through. Drier air though should preclude high coverage of
showers during the afternoon. Temps will be cooler, remaining
in the 60s to near 70 across the region.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development on the
Atlantic beaches Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds south of the area on Tuesday and then offshore
on Wednesday. The next cold front and chance for showers and
thunderstorms comes late Wednesday and Thursday. This will all
depend on the speed of the shortwave trough and its associated
frontal system. With the frontal boundary remaining near the local
area Friday, will continue to carry at least some chance POPs in the
forecast as the threat of any showers will continue.
Temperatures will be seasonable on Tuesday, followed by above normal
temperatures for the middle and end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the terminals
tonight. A cold front moves across late Sunday.
Mostly VFR, however some MVFR in showers probably reaching the
city after midnight. Stratus and/or fog develops tonight for
ISP and CT terminals. Any lower conditions improve back to VFR
by 14-16z. Showers and thunderstorms Sunday are expected to
develop after 18z and moves from west to east across the area.
Best chance for storms in the NYC terminals appears to be
between 20z-00Z.
Light winds tonight bcmg southerly on Sunday 10-15kt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sun night...Chc sub-VFR in shra/tstm early evening, otherwise
VFR.
.Mon...Mainly VFR, slight chance of a shower NW of NYC.
.Tue...VFR.
.Wed...Chance of MVFR in showers late in the day.
.Thu...Chance of Sub-VFR in showers and possible thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Light southeasterly winds are forecast tonight as weak high
pressure remains in control. A tightening pressure gradient
Sunday ahead of a cold front will result in increasing
southerly flow by afternoon. Winds shift behind the front Sunday
night and Monday, but should remain below 25 kt through this
time frame.
Seas build Sunday, but should remain under 5 ft on the ocean and
2 ft or less elsewhere.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely to continue into Tuesday with high
pressure. An approaching cold front Wednesday may build ocean seas
to near 5 ft and bring marginal SCA gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flash flooding possible Sunday into Sunday night with
any strong to severe thunderstorms that may develop along and
ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides on Sunday bring the possibility of
localized minor coastal flooding. This potential exists for the
south shore back bays of Long Island and Western Long Island Sound
locations in southwest Connecticut. At this time, it appears minor
coastal flooding benchmarks will just be touched. A coastal flood
statement may be needed for the Sunday evening high tide cycle.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
The first order of business tonight is the cold front moving
southeast toward the Ohio Valley. As of 19z, very little
convection was occurring near the front, but isolated
thunderstorms were forming in the Ozark foothills of southeast
Missouri. The high-res models such as the hrrr and 3 km nam from
12z this morning are right on track. These models bring isolated
storms across the Ozark foothills through sunset.
The more significant convection will likely form along the cold
front over northern Missouri and central Illinois by 00z. The
high-res models develop a broken line of storms along the front,
which reaches the kstl area around 03z. Most guidance brings this
line into southern IL, southwest IN, and parts of se Missouri by
midnight. There could be enough lingering instability for a few
severe storms north and west of the Ohio River. After midnight,
most of the model guidance depicts a weakening trend. The 3 km nam
dissipates the line entirely. The forecast will contain chance
pops for the whole area, mainly in the evening nw of the Ohio
River and after midnight to the southeast.
In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier air will arrive on
Sunday. Other than some diurnal cumulus clouds, expect mostly
sunny skies. Northwest breezes will limit highs to around 80.
Surface high pressure will pass east across the Great Lakes on
Monday, resulting in a dry northeast wind. With 850 mb temps only
around 10, high temps will be hard pressed to reach 80. As winds
veer more into the east-southeast Monday night, moisture levels
will increase a bit. There may be a few showers or storms over the
Ozark foothills after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
Medium confidence in the extended with models in fairly good
agreement.
Surface high pressure will be off to our east as we start the day
Tuesday. While there could be some widely scattered showers and
storms in western and northern parts of the forecast area, a
majority of the region will stay dry. The high will move off the
east coast on Wednesday as an area of low pressure starts to develop
in the Southern Plains. Chances for showers and storms will quickly
overspread the region on Wednesday. The cutoff low will linger in
the Southern and Central Plains through the rest of the week,
keeping chances for showers and storms. The best chances for
stronger storms appears to be Thursday and Thursday night with CAPES
aoa 2000 j/kg2 and LIs of -4 to -6 during the heating of the day.
Heavy rain re-enters the picture late in the week with PWs
increasing to greater than 2" for much of the area Thursday and into
Friday.
Models begin to diverge at this point with the GFS wanting to carry
the low on to the northeast next weekend while the ECMWF keeps the
low down in northern MS until it finally washes out. Either way,
precip chances begin to diminish late on Saturday.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will top out in the middle 80s with
clouds and precipitation keeping highs down the rest of the week in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the middle and
upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.
A broken line of thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a
cold front northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight.
Included VCTS at all local forecast terminals for a few hours as a
result. Southwest winds around 5 knots will become northwest
behind the front late tonight, then increase from the north at 5
to 10 knots on Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Sent out a quick update to increase PoPs across much of the
northern and eastern Big Country as thunderstorms move southeast
across the region. This activity is forecast to move east of the
area and weaken over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional convection
has developed across the Panhandle.. A few of the CAMs move this
convection south and east into the Big Country after 1 AM, so
have increased PoPs slightly across these areas. Some of this
convection could make it into the northern Concho Valley around
daybreak, so expanded slight chance PoPs south into portions of
the Concho Valley and Heartland after midnight. Otherwise, no
other changes are needed at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/
AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/
Thunderstorms over northwest Texas continue to develop and move
southward near an stationary front and retreating dryline. Storms
should decrease after sunset, but still can not rule out a few
storms over the I-20 area overnight. Have continued with VCTS for
KABI overnight. Confidence is lower that storms could survive all
the way south to KSJT, so will not include in TAFS at this time.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings expected to redevelop later tonight and
dissipate by mid morning tomorrow. Winds generally southeast at 20
kt or less, except stronger and gusty near thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Early this afternoon, a shortwave ridge was in place across much of
West Central Texas. Skies were partly cloudy, with temperatures
around 90 degrees. A cold front was located across the Central
Plains, while a complex of thunderstorms was diving southward
through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This complex was
producing an outflow boundary which is expected to progress
southward into the Big Country later this afternoon and evening. New
showers and thunderstorms were initiating along and ahead of this
boundary, as they were helped along by a weak impulse going over the
top of the ridge. For tonight, a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but should diminish after sunset.
However, a couple of the hi-resolution models are showing a new
cluster of thunderstorms forming over the Texas Panhandle, then
dropping southeast across the Big Country by late tonight. Multiple
runs of the HRRR model have performed well thus far and indicate
this scenario unfolding. As a result, PoPS have been increased after
midnight for areas along and north of Interstate 20. Elsewhere,
clouds should increase across the entire region overnight as the
boundary layer decouples.
For tomorrow, conditions should start off similar to Saturday
morning, with lows around 70 and mostly cloudy skies. Clouds should
clear out by mid morning with ample sunshine. The 500mb ridge is
expected to hold firm across the region. By tomorrow afternoon, a
few shortwave impulses will start to intrude from the west over the
Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley. CAPE values of 2000-
3000J/kg, and LIs of -7 degrees C should give ample opportunity for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon.
Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected. Otherwise,
high temperatures should once again reach the upper 80s to around 90.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Upper level ridge extending across West Central Texas on Sunday
evening will gradually shift east through the start of the week,
placing West Central Texas in better southwest flow aloft. With
the deep upper trough over the western US moving slowly to the
east as well, rain chances will increase across the area. As the
trough finally approaches by Tuesday night and Wednesday, models
show convection becoming more widespread. Upper trough passes to
the east by Thursday or Thursday night, and will take the rain
chances with it. Strong upper level ridge and hotter temperatures
look to be arriving for next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 88 70 89 70 / 20 30 20 20
San Angelo 90 70 91 70 / 20 20 10 20
Junction 90 71 92 70 / 5 0 5 10
Brownwood 87 70 90 70 / 10 20 20 10
Sweetwater 86 69 87 69 / 20 30 40 30
Ozona 87 70 87 69 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Daniels