Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/19
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Winds will taper off after sunset under clear skies. The main focus
overnight will be low level moisture return and potential low cigs in
the area from KROW to KCVS and KTCC aft 06Z. Near-term hi-res model
guidance shows SHRA/TSRA in this same area btwn 06Z and 14Z, thus
convective development will likely aid low cigs in its wake. Dry
south-southwest winds will increase again at all terminals late
Saturday morning with gusts in the 20-30 kt range by the afternoon.
There is a better chance for strong to perhaps severe SHRA/TSRA over
far eastern NM Saturday aft 20Z.
Guyer
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
While many locations within New Mexico enjoyed a break from the
strong winds today, some breezy to windy conditions were still
impacting portions of the northeastern highlands and northeastern
plains this afternoon. These breezes will subside around sunset this
evening with mild to seasonable overnight temperatures expected.
Through the evening and into Saturday and Sunday, a few thunderstorms
will periodically impact far eastern New Mexico near the Texas and
Oklahoma borders with some storms occasionally turning strong to
severe with gusty outflow winds, hail, and heavy downpours.
Otherwise, temperatures will rise a few more degrees Saturday. Little
temperature change is anticipated on Sunday, but readings will begin
falling a few degrees in western and central New Mexico on the
Memorial Day holiday as a low pressure system lifts over the Four
Corners region. This system will bring strengthening winds to New
Mexico each day of the long holiday weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A multitude of weather features will remain in the picture through
the long holiday weekend. Currently, as one upper low begins
crossing the Canadian border with North Dakota, additional areas of
pressure falls have already taken shape along the western ConUS in
the form of a deep, longwave trough near/west of the Baja and a low
near WA/OR. While southwesterlies aloft are still fairly stiff in
northeastern NM, they have reduced considerably from 24 hours ago,
hence less windy conditions across the forecast area. The vertical
mixing will subside and decouple around sunset, allowing the stronger
surface winds to diminish in the northeastern zones. The main
concern overnight will be watching the dryline bulge back into
southeastern and east central NM. As is typically the case, the GFS
is the most bullish with this return of low level moisture and also
is quite aggressive with overnight QPF in the southeastern to east
central zones. While other synoptic models and the HRRR are not
enthused about storm chances, the RAP and HREF are indicating
convective initiation along the moisture/surface convergence in this
area. If any storms fire, they could turn strong to severe before
dawn Saturday. Extensive low stratus clouds would also be possible
in the moisture Saturday morning.
The dryline will be the primary weather hazard to be concerned about
Saturday, although it is once again forecast to mix east toward the
NM-TX border in the afternoon. This should leave a narrow corridor of
far eastern NM with potential for storm development, but again any
storms that develop could pose severe hazards. The secondary concern
on Saturday will be strengthening winds as the longwave trough over
southern CA and the Baja remains intact, shedding a weak shortwave
inland over the southwestern states. This will strengthen the
gradient and flow aloft while a lee side cyclone takes shape in the
northeastern corner of NM. Breezy to windy conditions will turn more
widespread Saturday afternoon across NM with the strongest speeds
found in the highlands near and just east of the central mountain
chain, but at this time it appears we will be just beneath wind
advisory criteria.
Fairly similar trends will persist into Sunday with the west coast
features getting set into motion. The southern CA/Baja trough will
translate toward NM as a progressing short wave trough while the
upper low over WA/OR drops into central CA. This will strengthen the
south southwesterlies aloft over NM while the lee side surface
cyclone deepens a few millibars. The dryline would have sloshed
westward early Sunday morning, only to mix back toward the eastern
tier of NM counties by the afternoon. Again, storms will be possible
in the deeper boundary layer moisture, and this could remain better
anchored in the eastern plains of NM Sunday due to the pressure falls
west of the state that could act to stunt the dryline mix eastward.
Into Monday, the pattern will turn dry, but more dynamic as the
upstream CA low swings just north of the Four Corners. This will
shove any semblance of the dryline eastward out of NM while winds
aloft stay strong and the lee side cyclone deepens to about 988 mb
and relocates over northeastern CO. If any precipitation were to
develop on the Memorial Day holiday it would be confined to the far
northwestern zones where upper level dynamics would be strongest, but
the scant moisture will be the limiting factor. Another wind
advisory could also be in the cards for the holiday. Cooler
temperatures will also spill into the western two thirds of the state
Monday.
Into Tuesday and the remainder of next week, the forecast models are
attempting to become better aligned, but the details are still fuzzy
on a few items. Overall, the westerly flow will slacken and one short
wave will cross NM on Wednesday with another longer wave trough
slowly approaching toward the end of next week. This pattern will
hopefully keep winds from getting too high, and the slow approach of
the late week trough could induce a moist return flow into eastern
and central NM.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
While isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far eastern New
Mexico this weekend, the rest of the state will remain dry with
breezy to windy conditions. Models continue to trend wind speeds up,
especially on Sunday. These strong southwest winds, long duration
single digit humidities, and high Haines will contribute to critical
fire weather conditions this weekend.
The strongest winds on Saturday will be focused along and east of
the central mountain chain. Minimum humidity values are forecast to
be at around 15 percent, and with Haines Indices of 5 and 6, some
locally critical fire weather conditions immediately lee of the
central mountain chain and possibly the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Confidence was not high enough with this forecast package to issue a
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon, and thus will leave it up
to the midnight shift to consider any highlights.
Sunday looks to be a more widespread critical fire weather day.
Southwest winds will strengthen in response to an approaching storm
system, and single digit humidity values will persist west and
central. One limiting factor on fire growth potential for Sunday
could be the near to slightly below average temperatures, however a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the lower Rio Grande Valley
and neighboring zones where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined
possible critical fire weather conditions. Strong southwest winds and
low humidity look to continue on Memorial Day, however, a limiting
factor may be well below normal temperatures for the holiday.
15
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ106-107-109.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
At 2 PM, currently monitoring a warm sector across central Iowa. The
RAP continues to bring this warm sector northward into northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. As this occurs, the surface-based
CAPE is expected to climb into the 2-3K range by late afternoon.
There will be sufficient deep shear for the potential develop of
supercells between 4 PM this afternoon and 10 PM tonight. With 0-1
km shear of 30 knots and 0-1 km ML CAPE of 100 to 200 J/kg, there
will be the potential of isolated tornadoes to go along with the
threat for damaging winds and large hail. This is assuming that we
are able to break the cap which exists between 1.5 and 2.5 km.
The CAMs are struggling with this. One model run will break this
cap and then in its next model run it will not.
For Saturday, the models are in fairly good agreement that the
surface front will be far enough south during the day that we should
remain dry. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower
80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
A quasi-stationary front will stretch from an area of low pressure
centered on the TX/OK Panhandles to another surface low departing
into Quebec Saturday night. Locally, this boundary will sag just
south of the WI/IL border Saturday night with dewpoints pooling in
the 60s to the south. Considerably drier air will settle in north of
the front as surface high pressure builds over the Upper Mississippi
Valley. A shortwave is progged to ride along this boundary Saturday
night, passing by just south of our forecast area Sunday morning.
While the bulk of convective activity triggered by this feature is
expected to remain to our south, it may brush a portion of northeast
IA and southwest WI with some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder. Weak ridging aloft then slides overhead Sunday evening.
The next system arrives late Sunday night into Memorial Day as a
potent shortwave rides the ridge top with a developing surface low
reflection crossing into central WI. This will occur in conjunction
with an increase in deep layer moisture as PWATs climb to around 1.5
inches. Looks like only limited elevated instability initially, but
enough to support some embedded thunder within a large complex of
showers through Monday morning. Rainfall of a half inch to an inch
will be possible, heaviest across the northwestern portion of our
forecast area. The question then becomes whether the atmosphere can
recover for some convective activity in the afternoon-evening.
Models seem somewhat optimistic this far out that at least our
southwestern counties may clear out partially. However, they`re also
calling for dewpoints to reach the low 70s there Monday evening,
which is likely overdone and is thus inflating potential
instability. At this point looks like decent deep layer shear of 35-
50 knots to promote some storm organization, and SPC has our
northeast IA and southwest WI counties highlighted in their Day 4
outlook. Of course the severe threat is very conditional this far
out, but worth keeping a close eye on with lots of outdoor holiday
festivities.
An amplifying trough/ridge pattern over the CONUS towards the middle
of the week will remain conducive for continued unsettled weather.
An open Gulf and strong moisture transport will interact with low
pressure organizing over the Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday to
bring another round of widespread rainfall, with potentially
significant amounts. A cold front will then push south through the
area Wednesday night, with quieter/cooler weather the second half of
the week as high pressure skirts by to our west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Watching a cold front over western Minnesota and Iowa that will
move through both airports during the overnight hours. Some
showers and storms should get going ahead of this front in the
warm sector this evening, but the latest runs of the RAP and HRRR
suggest the warm sector and best chances for showers/storms to
remain southeast of both airports. Any remaining MVFR ceilings are
expected to move past the area very early this evening and will
start with a VFR ceiling that will scatter out slowly from west to
east tonight. Quiet conditions expected for Saturday with just
some high clouds and west/southwest winds under 10 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
With the models not showing much training across the area tonight
and the next round of heavy rain not expected until Sunday night
through Tuesday, opted to just keep the ESF going. With this said,
any storms that do develop tonight will have the potential of
producing hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, so we
will have to watch them closely.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Isolated snow shower coverage over the mountains is coming to an
end with the loss of daytime heating. Skies over northeast
Colorado have become mostly clear except for an area of altcumulus
over the Denver area. Low level moisture is beginning to move in
from western Kansas, as evidenced by satellite imagery. This
moisture is forecast by the HRRR to remain east of the Denver
metro area. Although dew points are surging into the mid and upper
40s over Lincoln County, the HRRR and other models drop the dew
points back into the 30s overnight, which will keep fog and
stratus from developing. There must be enough veritcal mixing of
the westerly flow aloft allowing the airmass to absorb the influx
of moisture. Current forecast package captured all of the current
trends, so will not be making any changes to the forecast at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
An upper level trough can be seen on water vapor moving NNE out of
central Utah. Some height falls and lift associated with the upper
jet will bring isolated to scattered convection over the higher
terrain by the afternoon, mainly over the northern mountains where
better moisture exists. With the subsident side of the jet lifting
to the NE, winds have decreased over the higher terrain, however
some gusting up to 55 mph will still be possible into the early
evening hours over the higher passes. At lower elevations,
moderate westerly flow has helped to dry out the eastern plains
with mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures back closer to
seasonal normals. Some mid level clouds will move in by the
evening as the upper disturbance moves over, which will help to
keep overnight temperatures warming than the past few days.
For Saturday, Colorado will continue to be in southwesterly flow
aloft as another trough over the West coast moves inland. Dry mid
level flow will push in keeping skies mostly sunny through most of
the day. Surface flow will mainly be from the SSE that will help
to usher in some weak moisture through the day. By the late
afternoon there is a slight chance of some isolated convection
over the central mountains, but most of the higher chances of
convection lie further South and East. Temperatures will continue
to rebound with highs on the plains expected to be in the mid
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
For Saturday night and Sunday, the next storm system will be
dropping southward across California with a strong southwest flow
aloft over Colorado. At the surface, increasing southeast winds
will bring in a moist low level flow Saturday night which will
increase low clouds and possible fog across portions of northeast
plains of Colorado. Low confidence on how far west the low
clouds/fog make but for now will keep the clouds/fog north and
east of the Denver area.
From late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, the upper low
begins to move eastward into Nevada Utah with continued strong
southwest flow aloft over Colorado. With strong southerly flow,
temperatures will approach 80 degrees on the plains as 700mb
temperatures rise to around +10c. Could see a potential dry line
set up over the far northeast plains with a potential for severe
storms with over 2000k/kg of available CAPE and sufficient shear
profile for super cells. Best chances would be east and north of a
line from from Anton to Sterling. SPC also has most of far
eastern Colorado under a slight chance for severe storms for
Sunday afternoon/evening.
On Monday, the Great Basin upper low will be lifting northeast
across northwest Colorado and into Wyoming and Nebraska Monday
evening with moderate QG upward forcing over our northern mountains.
The European solution is further south and slower with the track
of the low (more across central Colorado) which would give much
of the northern portions of our CWA better chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. 700mb temperatures drop to around 0C so
certainly more snowfall can be expected over the mountains and
higher foothills above 7500 feet or so.
Tuesday will remain unsettled with continue cool conditions and lingering
showers, especially over northeast Colorado if the European track
verifies. There will be continued weak troughiness across much
of the west through the week, so there will still be some moisture
and limited instability over Colorado for mainly isolated late
day showers and storms. Temperatures will climb back towards
seasonal normals by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
No aviation impacts expected overnight as skies become mostly
clear and winds gradually return to typical drainage patterns.
tomorrow morning will also see mostly clear skies along with
southeasterly winds. During the afternoon there may be a slight
chance of thunderstorm activity developing. Coverage of showers
should be very spotty, so will leave the mention of showers out of
the TAF products until there is a stronger indication that enough
moisture will be present to support better shower coverage.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1016 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
The mesocale environment for tornadoes has now transitioned to
mainly an elevated shower and thunderstorm threat tonight. Our
southern 2/3rds is most favored for heavy rain, but the far
northwest may see a narrow training line as well, thus keeping the
flash flood watch going for now, though the amounts may average
much lower than earlier forecast tonight.
A storm survey team will be leaving in the morning to access the
Johnson County/Frytown-Iowa City tornado event.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Atmosphere continues to destabilize with clearing in the wake of
the earlier storms. Latest analysis shows low pressure over
North Dakota with occluded front into triple point over central
Iowa, with warm front extending near an Ottumwa to Fort Madison
to Macomb line. Surface dew points are climbing through the 60s
and lower 70s with the lifting warm front, with SPC RAP analysis
showing MLCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg south of the boundary and 0-6km
bulk shear of 50-60 kts over the region supportive of additional
severe storms. As for storms do anticipate more tonight, with
next round of warm/theta-e advection and weak energy in SW flow
aloft... currently attendant to convection from Kansas into
Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Anticipate storms to redevelop tonight, perhaps initially isolated
to scattered surface based moving in/developing from central Iowa
then further expansion in coverage with warm/theta-e advection
attendant to LLJ. Shear/instability favorable for severe storms
this evening potentially supercells with full range of hazards,
including tornadoes especially with any interaction of warm front
where more pronounced low level SRH and looping hodographs in
0-1km will exist. Flash flooding will also remain a concern and a
growing one, especially in areas that received heavy rain already
last night and earlier today.
On Saturday, in similar fashion to today, expect bulk of any
showers and storms favoring the first half of the day before
waning LLJ and warm/theta-e advection. Highs should recover to
around 80 or lower 80s most locations and with dew points into the
upper 60s will feel quite summery.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Blocking pattern looks to persist through the middle of next week,
with stagnant heat dome over the southeast states and broad
troughing out west. This will result in continuation of the active
pattern featuring periodic bouts of showers and storms with
potential for some severe weather and heavy rain through Tuesday.
Latter half of the week medium range models show a break down
of the blocking pattern, and returning to NW flow aloft being
more under influence of Hudson Bay low. This should lead to
cooler and drier conditions by Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
A storm system will move across the region tonight with periods of
showers and thunderstorms. The TAF period will be mainly VFR with
periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities in showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage of the storms will increase this evening
before diminishing after 06 UTC Saturday. Winds will diminish this
evening after a gusty day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Heavy rain fell over the last 24 hours across the region, with the
heaviest amounts of an inch or more north of a line from
Sigourney, IA through Freeport, IL. There was a narrower strip of
amounts up to 3.50 inches from about Dysart, IA through Potosi,
WI. With this rain and expected rains still through 12Z Saturday
morning most river forecasts this morning saw rises, some quite
significant rises.
This continues to be a concerning situation with more rain in the
forecast every day. With the ground conditions saturated, and
accounting for little vegetation to pull any water out as the
majority of farm fields are either not yet planted, or have very
new plants emerging runoff amounts will be high with quicker
responses in the rivers likely than would normally occur.
Numerous flood warnings were issued this morning for tributary
rivers. Many of these forecasts to show crests over the weekend,
with falling levels next week. We would express caution with these
forecasts as more rain is expected through the weekend and into
next week which will likely either raise the crest forecasts or
prolong the time the rivers remain high.
On the Mississippi, significant rises were sent out in this
morning`s forecasts. NOTE: these crest forecasts will likely
change and rise further as more of the forecast rain gets utilized
in the forecasts in the coming days.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Benton-Buchanan-
Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Carroll-
Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...Brooks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Aloft: Highly-amplified longwave flow was over the CONUS per RAP
tropopause analyses/WV imagery/aircraft winds...with a trof over
the W and the ridge over the E. SW flow was over NEB/KS and the
flow will remain SW thru tomorrow. The flow will become more
anticyclonic Sat with some modest 30-40 m height rises at 500 mb.
Surface: Occluded low pres was over the Dakota`s with a cool
front extending W into WY/MT. As this low heads into ON tonight
...this cool front will mv S into NEB/KS. It will mv into the CWA
after 06Z and by 12Z it is fcst to bisect the CWA from NW-SE.
Tomorrow AM it will exit the CWA and become then stationary just S
and E of the CWA with wk high pres overtaking the Nrn Plns.
Tonight: M/clear before midnight. Tstms will erupt over Ern KS
late this aftn/eve. There is an outside chance a tstm could brush
the extreme SE fringe of the CWA. It probably won`t happen. SREF
MUCAPE is fcst 1000-1500 J/kg. So can`t completely rule out a
strong or low- end svr tstm if anything meanders into the CWA.
Incrsg clds after midnight.
Some mdls are indicating sct tstms will dvlp at the nose of the
low- lvl jet over NW KS/SW NEB after midnight...with this activity
mvg ENE into the CWA. This potential seems reasonable as the low-
lvl jet advects rich mstr N...resulting in instability...and the
aprchg front providing additional lift. MUCAPE is fcst to incrs to
1500- 2000 J/kg S of I-80 with 30 kt of deep lyr shr.
Sat: A few shwrs/tstms will probably linger into the AM hrs...
espcly E of Hwy 183. Expect the aftn will be dry...but did leave a
low 20% POP acrs the SE 1/2 of the CWA due to mdl uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Aloft: The last 2 runs of global mdls remain tightly clustered on
the SW flow remaining over NEB/KS thru Tue...maintaining the Wrn
trof/Ern ridge over the CONUS. A low will be diving down the W
coast into the Wrn trof Sat-Sun. This will force a shrtwv trof off
Baja CA to accelerate NE and cross NEB/KS around 12Z/Mon. The low
fcst to be over Srn NV is then fcst to mv thru UT/CO and into NEB
by Tue. Cyclonic NW flow is expected Wed with the low weakening
on its way to the GtLks. Heights should rise a bit Thu as a shrtwv
ridge is fcst to build over NM/CO/WY.
Surface: As low pres makes its way thru the Wrn USA Sun...the
stalled front should lift back N as a warm front. Low pres is fcst
to mv acrs NEB late Sun night thru Mon AM in association with the
shrtwv trof. The front will become stationary across NEB Mon in
the wake of the low. Meanwhile...the next low be forming over CO
in response to the aprchg upr low. The CO low is fcst to mv into
NEB Mon night into Tue and as it crosses the state...so will its
associated cool front. There is still some spread in the position
of the low...and that will affect the sensible wx that results.
The CWA will be in the cool sector Wed. Disagreement Thu...even
btwn the 00Z and 12Z EC...precludes providing any details.
Temps: Near normal Sun-Mon and probably Tue. Then cooler Wed-Thu
but still very comfortable.
Rain/Svr: With the stalled longwave pattern aloft...the wet
pattern will cont. Sct tstms are possible every day thru Tue. Some
storms will be svr.
Sat night the chance for sct tstms will increase as the low-lvl
jet dvlps strengthens in response to the RRQ of a 100 kt upr-level
jet streak...and intersects the front. Low-lvl mstr advection
will result in MUCAPE incrsg to 1500-3000 J/kg with deep lyr shr
around 40 kts. This would support very large svr hail and isolated
G60 mph.
Late Sun aftn/eve...sct tstms will erupt over Wrn KS and
expand/mv the CWA associated with the shrtwv trof. Again...shr/
instability will be strong enough for very large svr hail and
isolated G60 mph and possibly a tornado or two.
Mon is looking quiet during the day...but Mon ngt more tstms could
erupt at intersection of the low-lvl jet with the front.
Tue...uncertainty. But more tstms are psbl.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
This forecast could be a bit tricky. VFR conditions are expected
initially, but MVFR or near-MVFR visibility is possible for
several hours as some stratus may develop. Also thunderstorms are
possible overnight, but coverage would not enough do much more
than VCTS for the time being. South wind will become variable
tonight and eventually become light form the north/east for
Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Soil conds are wet acrs the entire CWA from 2-3" of rain that has
fallen over most of the CWA. Parts of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell/
Jewell counties hv received 3 to almost 5". The S Fork of the
Solomon Rvr is currently in minor flood acrs Osborne county...and
downstream of Glen Elder Reservoir...the rvr spiked to action
stage today. More hvy rain is psbl the next few days...and that
could not only lead to localized flash flooding...but additional
rises in creeks/rivers...espcly over N-cntrl KS and the Little
Blue Rvr in S-cntrl NEB.
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein
HYDROLOGY...Kelley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
630 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight regarding
chances for rainfall. Confidence is still on the low side
regarding storms developing after midnight. However, given the
latest near term data, decided to increase chances for rainfall a
bit.
Storms, if they do form, should develop around 2 AM CT over the
central part of the forecast area where a LLJ nose moves up and an
upper level short wave trough moves in. The RAP and NAM both
suggest that elevated CAPE above 850mb becomes available.
Effective shear and 0-3 KM helicity both are supportive of
rotating updrafts developing. The storm activity will remain on
the low side, shifting east. The window for activity will be
roughly 1-4 AM CT. Hail up to ping-pong ball size will be the main
threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Tonight-Saturday...low confidence in isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing around or shortly after midnight as some
elevated instability develops ahead of a weak weather disturbance
moving across from the southwest. Primary area of concern is
northeast of a line from Haigler to Hill City. Low temperatures
range from the low to mid 40s in far eastern Colorado to the mid
50s from Norton to Hill City. On Saturday afternoon temperatures
warm into the mid 70s to low 80s under a sunny to mostly sunny
sky. A strong weather disturbance with good upper jet divergence
moves north out of the Texas panhandle and into the southern half
or so of the area by 00z (Sunday) sparking strong to severe
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Saturday night-Sunday...MCS type signature noted in upper level
divergence fields as the expected cluster of storms across our far
south moves northeast through early Sunday morning. Post frontal low
clouds and some fog possible. Low temperatures look to range from
the upper 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 50s in
the east. For Sunday some fog possible in the morning otherwise we
wait for the next weather disturbance thats expected to move into
the area from the south by early afternoon, interacting with a
dryline near the CO/KS border. Location of the greatest pops still
in question but for now mainly along and south of the interstate.
Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. High
temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Sunday night-Monday...thunderstorm activity moves off to the
northeast during the night with high chance and low likely pops over
much of the area. Dry weather expected for much of Monday. Cant
completely rule out a few thunderstorms along the NAM model depicted
dryline over a small part of our eastern counties. Confidence is
low. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s west to low 60s east.
High temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Upper low will track from the Great Basin Monday night to the
northern Plains by Tuesday night. It will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. However,
that track would place the central Plains under the dry slot, and
as a result some question over moisture/instabilty. Severe
parameters appear unfavorable at this time. After that system
exits, will see zonal flow on Wednesday transition to shortwave
ridging on Thursday then southwest flow reestablished for Friday.
So will have a dry forecast on Thursday then only slight chances
for thunderstorms on Friday to account for any weak disturbance in
the southwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly below normal at
the beginning of the period, then gradually return to near or
slightly above normal by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at McCook and
Goodland terminals, with the possible exception of a passing
isolated thunderstorm at MCK. There is a chance for an isolated
thunderstorm near the McCook terminal after 06Z tonight, around
08Z. IFR ceiling conditions will be possible with a passing
thunderstorm. Winds are expected to decrease over the next 1 to 2
hours at both TAF sites.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...NEWMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
931 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
Evening satellite imagery indicated mostly clear skies over southern
IN and central KY. A remnant convective complex was noted just
south and west of Nashville TN with some of the cloud debris moving
northward into KY. Temperatures remained quite mild with reading in
the mid to upper 70s. A few locations were still close to 80, while
some of the valley locations had dropped into the lower 70s.
For the overnight period, the HRRR has been long advertising the
convective complex over TN to move northward into central KY
overnight. Looking at various analysis and water vapor imagery
suggest that perhaps a weak mid-level vort lobe is responsible for
the activity. The HRRR runs redevelop convection later this evening
and mainly toward sunrise over portions of central KY. Right now,
the best chances for any storms, look to be in a corridor from
Bowling Green northeast toward Lexington. Given the insistence from
the HRRR run, have opted to continue isolated PoPs for the overnight
period across central KY with the evening update. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Urban corridors may
remain warmer with readings in the mid 70s.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
...Warm and humid this Memorial Day weekend...
Strong high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the
southeastern U.S. in the short term. The main axis of convection
tonight and Saturday will arc from parts of the southern and central
Plains E and NE across the mid MS and OH Valleys on the northern
periphery of this ridge, but mostly remain north of our area.
Currently, GOES-16 VIS imagery shows plenty of diurnal cumulus
clouds across central KY and southern IN, but mostly with subdued
vertical development. However, there is some cloud enhancements over
TN and northern MS associated with scattered showers/storms.
Although water vapor imagery does not show much upper support
(perhaps a very subtle shortwave), various models pick up on this
area well, and lift it north into central KY tonight. As this
occurs, diurnal instability will wane, so this feature may just be
associated with clouds but no precip. Nevertheless, will carry
isolated chances tonight along its path as lapse rates aloft should
remain steep enough to support isolated nocturnal showers late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Lows Saturday morning will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s (perhaps slightly cooler in valleys and
slightly warmer in urban cores).
Saturday should be a dry day for the most part. Showers and storms
may be ongoing well to our west over parts of MO and perhaps IL. As
this activity works east with new diurnal development ahead of it,
much of this will remain to our north given the persistent ridge to
our south. However, any outflow boundaries could cause a couple
storms to sneak into southern IN during the afternoon, so slight
chance carried there. Expect afternoon highs from 87-91.
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
Saturday Night - Tuesday...
Amplified pattern continues to prevail for much of the long term
period. Models indicate a shortwave ejecting out of the western
trough on Sunday, flattening the ridge over our area. With moderate
instability in place (SBCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg), showers and storms will
be possible throughout the day. A similar pattern is expected to
occur again on Monday, with another shortwave riding across the top
of the ridge bringing renewed chances for daytime showers and
storms. By Tuesday, the ridge is able to strengthen back across the
Ohio Valley, keeping us dry and hot. Temperatures will remain on the
warmer side Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s each day.
Wednesday - Friday...
On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move out of the Central
Plains and up across the Great Lakes region, bringing an elongated
cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. This will bring chances for showers and storms Wednesday
and Thursday, some of which may be severe. Behind the cold front,
temperatures will be much closer to normals, with highs in the low
80s on Thursday and Friday. High pressure will build over the area
Friday, resulting in a dry and warm day.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 700 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
VFR conditions along with sustained southwesterly breezes are
expected this evening and into the overnight period at the
terminals. Some of the high resolution models suggest convective
complex over west-central TN will move northeast this evening and we
may see some additional development overnight across central KY. For
now, have inserted a PROB30 group in at KLEX between 25/10-16Z to
account for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period at the TAF sites for Saturday with breezy
southwest winds continuing through at least sunset Saturday evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update.......MJ
Short Term...TWF
Long Term....JMB
Aviation.....MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
612 PM PDT Fri May 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions are forecast through Saturday,
along with continued cooler than normal temperatures.
Unseasonably cool and unsettled conditions are forecast to develop
later in the weekend as a system drops in from the north, with
scattered showers maybe a stray thunderstorm possible on Sunday.
Dry weather should return by Memorial Day, but temperatures will
remain cool into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 1:32 PM PDT Friday...Visible satellite
imagery shows some areas of low clouds lingering over parts of the
San Francisco and Monterey Bay areas this early afternoon. These
low clouds are preventing efficient solar heating thus far this
afternoon for some locations. For example, the Sonoma County
Airport (KSTS) is running 12 degrees cooler than this time 24
hours ago as a consequence to the marine stratus. The most recent
satellite trends reveal that clearing is occurring in the North
Bay Valleys, but with the delayed sunshine, have gone ahead and
dropped afternoon maximum temperatures for most North Bay
locations by several degrees. The East Bay south of the Bay Bridge
as well as the South Bay have been mostly sunny since mid-
morning, and are actually running several degrees warmer than 24
hours ago. By the time the afternoon wraps up, high temperatures
along the coast will warm to the upper 50s to 60s while interior
locations will warm to the middle/upper 60s to middle 70s. These
values equate to about 3 to 9 degrees below late May
climatological normal values.
If you`re looking for warm weather in the Bay Area for the
holiday weekend, I do not have good news for you. There is high
confidence of continued below normal temperatures through Memorial
Day as another upper level low drops south from the Pacific
Northwest by the second half of the weekend. This upper low will
bring a reinforced shot of cooler air, as well as another
opportunity of rain showers on Sunday. Snow levels will drop to
around 5,000 ft, per the official forecast and the National Blend
of Models (NBM); however, the 12Z run of our local in-house WRF
drops snow levels to 4,200 to 4,500 ft for some locations. Just to
quantify how anomalous this upper low is -- the 850 mb
geopotential height levels over our area are forecast to
correspond to about -3 to -4 sigma (standard deviations) with
respect to the 1979-2009 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
(CFSR). At the surface, these temperatures will translate to about
10 to 20 degrees below normal. Hikers, campers, and outdoor
enthusiasts with plans to head to the higher elevations on Sunday
should plan accordingly for cold temperatures and rain showers, as
well as the possibility of isolated snow showers if snow levels
drop lower than the present official forecast. Will also have to
keep a close eye on the possibility of thunder for parts of the
area, but for now think the best odds will be to our east in the
Sierra.
For Memorial Day, temperatures should begin to rebound as the
upper low exits the area with highs in the 50s and 60s along the
coast and middle 60s to near 70 for inland communities. Can`t rule
out some lingering showers in the mountains during the day, but
think most locations will be dry for the holiday itself. Temperatures
will continue to moderate through the middle of next week with
the NBM bringing back some 80 degree readings returning to the
warmest locations by Wednesday or Thursday. With that said, though,
both the GFS and ECMWF are keeping a trough over the West Coast, so
temperatures will likely just return back to near normal values.
There is hope for those waiting for warmer weather -- the Climate
Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook does begin to favor the
likelihood of experiencing above normal temperatures for the June
1 to 7 period.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 6:12 PM PDT Friday...It`s VFR inland except for
a few brief isolated late day showers over easternmost Santa Clara
county and a group of showers and thunderstorms over Lake county
entering northernmost Napa county. Convective potential diminishes
with the loss of daytime warming, but a few showers and lingering
lightning strikes may reach into northern Napa county for a couple
more hours.
Coastal low clouds with an embedded surface to lower level cyclonic
eddy circulation seen per visible imagery will fill in along the
coast and spread MVFR ceilings inland this evening. A fairly rapid
succession of lower level thermal ridging to a mainly dry cool front
approx 300 miles NW of San Francisco will accelerate southeast to
approx 30 mph per GFS and ECMWF theta-e forecasts later tonight into
Saturday morning. Forecast is MVFR ceilings trending lower to IFR
ceilings as cloud ceilings become increasingly compressed under
temporary subsidence and prefrontal convergence; latest NAM also
forecasts pockets of light drizzle/rain, the HRRR also similarly
showing smaller pocket of qpf on the San Mateo Coast. GFS and
ECMWF theta-e show the cool front clearing well to our south later
Saturday. Post cool frontal winds in the spring season are often
breezy to gusty thus decided to bump up Saturday`s winds in the
tafs up over statistical guidance at least for KSFO, KOAK, KSJC.
Statistical guidance then showing increasing winds arriving Saturday
night.
Model differences in boundary layer RH lowers confidence as to how
quickly low clouds may clear Saturday, for now tafs lean toward sct-
bkn MVFR cloud coverage for much of the day. Pilots should plan on
gusty winds, lowering freezing levels over the cwa over the holiday
weekend and convection some of which could be borderline isolated
severe with the arrival of a deep cold core mid to upper low Sunday.
Vicinity of KSFO...Low clouds converging along the coast with lower
level cooling forecast by the NAM through mid-late evening. Tempo
MVFR 03z-05z then prevailing MVFR tonight. West winds generally up
over 12 knots tonight then increasingly gusty around cool frontal
passage Saturday morning, cool frontal passage occurs by 15z. Gusty
post frontal winds Saturday lasting into Saturday night. Sct-bkn
MVFR ceilings Saturday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...W-NW winds near 10 knots with low clouds
developing early this evening. MVFR locally IFR ceilings tonight,
coastal drizzle or light rain possible later tonight into Saturday
morning, not in tafs presently, will amend as needed. Winds likely
becoming gusty Saturday, may need to bump up winds a bit more than
presently advertised in 00z tafs.
&&
.MARINE...as of 5:07 PM PDT Friday...Gusty northerly flow will
develop tonight as a low pressure moves into the Great Basin.
Gusty winds will continue into the upcoming weekend. Moderate
northwest swell will continue through the weekend with steep fresh
swell generated by the gusty winds.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 PM until 3 AM
GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 AM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: MM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
601 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Ran a quick update to remove precipitation chances for the far
Eastern Plains tonight into the morning. The latest guidance keeps
things dry over our CWA. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
The upper level flow will be from the southwest during the short
term forecast period (6PM today through 6PM Saturday). The response
will be dry conditions across most of the region for the entirety of
the forecast period, but there will be a chance for isolated severe
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon over the far eastern Plains.
Low temperatures tonight will be right around seasonal for this
time of year. Expect lows over the Plains to be in the mid-40s, the
San Luis Valley (SLV) to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, the upper
Arkansas River Valley (Upper Ark) to be in the mid-30s, and the
mountains to be in the 20s to 30s.
Saturday will be another predominantly dry day in response to the
upper level southwesterly flow. There will be a dryline forming
over the far eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, which will form
isolated thunderstorms, some likely severe. The SPC`s outlook
indicates an "enhanced" risk for severe thunderstorms near the
Kansas and Colorado border. A forecast sounding point, resolved by
the NAM, over Baca County reveals around 3000 to 3500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, around 1500 J/kg of DCAPE, LCL heights around 1500 meters,
lapse rates around the dry adiabatic rate, and SRH values around
175 m2/s2. All of that leads to the outcome of having an isolated
supercell thunderstorms developing over the far eastern Plains
during the afternoon hours. The LCLs are a little high for
favorable tornadogenesis, but tornados are possible. Large hail,
up to two inches, is possible underneath the strongest storms and
wind gusts around 70 mph are possible. Convective initiation
timing will be around the 3PM MDT hour, plus or minus an hour. The
experimental 18Z HRRR has discrete supercellular storms and
helicity swaths developing around the 3PM MDT time period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
Initially, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing across the southeastern Colorado plains(please review
short-term discussion above), especially far eastern locations
into later Saturday afternoon and possibly Saturday evening, with
decreasing storm activity after midnight. Further west, generally
dry conditions in combination with near seasonal later May
temperatures are anticipated Saturday night.
For Sunday, another round of strong to possibly severe dryline
thunderstorms are projected from Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening(again favoring far eastern locations), which is well
depicted by the recent Sunday SPC Severe Thunderstorm outlook.
Near to above seasonal temperatures are anticipated across southern
Colorado from Sunday into Memorial Day Monday in combination with
gusty winds. At this time, will continue to refrain from issuing
fire weather highlights during this time-frame as land management
agencies continue to indicate that fuels are not favorable for
larger-scale fire activity. Also, the warm temperatures will
continue to increase snow melt into southern Colorado`s streams
and rivers from this weekend into Monday.
Next system is tracking a bit further north than earlier longer
term models depicted, however will continue with theme of cooler
temperatures in combination with increased pops favoring the
western 2/3rds of the CWA from Tuesday into Wednesday.
Then, passing upper disturbances interacting with adequate
atmospheric moisture will allow for primarily afternoon into
evening showers and thunderstorms over several locations from
Thursday into next Friday in combination with temperatures
running near to slightly above late May climatological averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019
VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the
forecast period. Gusty southwesterly winds are anticipated to
develop over KALS and KCOS during the afternoon hours tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY