Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Winds will taper off after sunset under clear skies. The main focus overnight will be low level moisture return and potential low cigs in the area from KROW to KCVS and KTCC aft 06Z. Near-term hi-res model guidance shows SHRA/TSRA in this same area btwn 06Z and 14Z, thus convective development will likely aid low cigs in its wake. Dry south-southwest winds will increase again at all terminals late Saturday morning with gusts in the 20-30 kt range by the afternoon. There is a better chance for strong to perhaps severe SHRA/TSRA over far eastern NM Saturday aft 20Z. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019... .SYNOPSIS... While many locations within New Mexico enjoyed a break from the strong winds today, some breezy to windy conditions were still impacting portions of the northeastern highlands and northeastern plains this afternoon. These breezes will subside around sunset this evening with mild to seasonable overnight temperatures expected. Through the evening and into Saturday and Sunday, a few thunderstorms will periodically impact far eastern New Mexico near the Texas and Oklahoma borders with some storms occasionally turning strong to severe with gusty outflow winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Otherwise, temperatures will rise a few more degrees Saturday. Little temperature change is anticipated on Sunday, but readings will begin falling a few degrees in western and central New Mexico on the Memorial Day holiday as a low pressure system lifts over the Four Corners region. This system will bring strengthening winds to New Mexico each day of the long holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A multitude of weather features will remain in the picture through the long holiday weekend. Currently, as one upper low begins crossing the Canadian border with North Dakota, additional areas of pressure falls have already taken shape along the western ConUS in the form of a deep, longwave trough near/west of the Baja and a low near WA/OR. While southwesterlies aloft are still fairly stiff in northeastern NM, they have reduced considerably from 24 hours ago, hence less windy conditions across the forecast area. The vertical mixing will subside and decouple around sunset, allowing the stronger surface winds to diminish in the northeastern zones. The main concern overnight will be watching the dryline bulge back into southeastern and east central NM. As is typically the case, the GFS is the most bullish with this return of low level moisture and also is quite aggressive with overnight QPF in the southeastern to east central zones. While other synoptic models and the HRRR are not enthused about storm chances, the RAP and HREF are indicating convective initiation along the moisture/surface convergence in this area. If any storms fire, they could turn strong to severe before dawn Saturday. Extensive low stratus clouds would also be possible in the moisture Saturday morning. The dryline will be the primary weather hazard to be concerned about Saturday, although it is once again forecast to mix east toward the NM-TX border in the afternoon. This should leave a narrow corridor of far eastern NM with potential for storm development, but again any storms that develop could pose severe hazards. The secondary concern on Saturday will be strengthening winds as the longwave trough over southern CA and the Baja remains intact, shedding a weak shortwave inland over the southwestern states. This will strengthen the gradient and flow aloft while a lee side cyclone takes shape in the northeastern corner of NM. Breezy to windy conditions will turn more widespread Saturday afternoon across NM with the strongest speeds found in the highlands near and just east of the central mountain chain, but at this time it appears we will be just beneath wind advisory criteria. Fairly similar trends will persist into Sunday with the west coast features getting set into motion. The southern CA/Baja trough will translate toward NM as a progressing short wave trough while the upper low over WA/OR drops into central CA. This will strengthen the south southwesterlies aloft over NM while the lee side surface cyclone deepens a few millibars. The dryline would have sloshed westward early Sunday morning, only to mix back toward the eastern tier of NM counties by the afternoon. Again, storms will be possible in the deeper boundary layer moisture, and this could remain better anchored in the eastern plains of NM Sunday due to the pressure falls west of the state that could act to stunt the dryline mix eastward. Into Monday, the pattern will turn dry, but more dynamic as the upstream CA low swings just north of the Four Corners. This will shove any semblance of the dryline eastward out of NM while winds aloft stay strong and the lee side cyclone deepens to about 988 mb and relocates over northeastern CO. If any precipitation were to develop on the Memorial Day holiday it would be confined to the far northwestern zones where upper level dynamics would be strongest, but the scant moisture will be the limiting factor. Another wind advisory could also be in the cards for the holiday. Cooler temperatures will also spill into the western two thirds of the state Monday. Into Tuesday and the remainder of next week, the forecast models are attempting to become better aligned, but the details are still fuzzy on a few items. Overall, the westerly flow will slacken and one short wave will cross NM on Wednesday with another longer wave trough slowly approaching toward the end of next week. This pattern will hopefully keep winds from getting too high, and the slow approach of the late week trough could induce a moist return flow into eastern and central NM. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... While isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far eastern New Mexico this weekend, the rest of the state will remain dry with breezy to windy conditions. Models continue to trend wind speeds up, especially on Sunday. These strong southwest winds, long duration single digit humidities, and high Haines will contribute to critical fire weather conditions this weekend. The strongest winds on Saturday will be focused along and east of the central mountain chain. Minimum humidity values are forecast to be at around 15 percent, and with Haines Indices of 5 and 6, some locally critical fire weather conditions immediately lee of the central mountain chain and possibly the lower Rio Grande Valley. Confidence was not high enough with this forecast package to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon, and thus will leave it up to the midnight shift to consider any highlights. Sunday looks to be a more widespread critical fire weather day. Southwest winds will strengthen in response to an approaching storm system, and single digit humidity values will persist west and central. One limiting factor on fire growth potential for Sunday could be the near to slightly below average temperatures, however a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the lower Rio Grande Valley and neighboring zones where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined possible critical fire weather conditions. Strong southwest winds and low humidity look to continue on Memorial Day, however, a limiting factor may be well below normal temperatures for the holiday. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones... NMZ106-107-109. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 At 2 PM, currently monitoring a warm sector across central Iowa. The RAP continues to bring this warm sector northward into northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. As this occurs, the surface-based CAPE is expected to climb into the 2-3K range by late afternoon. There will be sufficient deep shear for the potential develop of supercells between 4 PM this afternoon and 10 PM tonight. With 0-1 km shear of 30 knots and 0-1 km ML CAPE of 100 to 200 J/kg, there will be the potential of isolated tornadoes to go along with the threat for damaging winds and large hail. This is assuming that we are able to break the cap which exists between 1.5 and 2.5 km. The CAMs are struggling with this. One model run will break this cap and then in its next model run it will not. For Saturday, the models are in fairly good agreement that the surface front will be far enough south during the day that we should remain dry. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 A quasi-stationary front will stretch from an area of low pressure centered on the TX/OK Panhandles to another surface low departing into Quebec Saturday night. Locally, this boundary will sag just south of the WI/IL border Saturday night with dewpoints pooling in the 60s to the south. Considerably drier air will settle in north of the front as surface high pressure builds over the Upper Mississippi Valley. A shortwave is progged to ride along this boundary Saturday night, passing by just south of our forecast area Sunday morning. While the bulk of convective activity triggered by this feature is expected to remain to our south, it may brush a portion of northeast IA and southwest WI with some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Weak ridging aloft then slides overhead Sunday evening. The next system arrives late Sunday night into Memorial Day as a potent shortwave rides the ridge top with a developing surface low reflection crossing into central WI. This will occur in conjunction with an increase in deep layer moisture as PWATs climb to around 1.5 inches. Looks like only limited elevated instability initially, but enough to support some embedded thunder within a large complex of showers through Monday morning. Rainfall of a half inch to an inch will be possible, heaviest across the northwestern portion of our forecast area. The question then becomes whether the atmosphere can recover for some convective activity in the afternoon-evening. Models seem somewhat optimistic this far out that at least our southwestern counties may clear out partially. However, they`re also calling for dewpoints to reach the low 70s there Monday evening, which is likely overdone and is thus inflating potential instability. At this point looks like decent deep layer shear of 35- 50 knots to promote some storm organization, and SPC has our northeast IA and southwest WI counties highlighted in their Day 4 outlook. Of course the severe threat is very conditional this far out, but worth keeping a close eye on with lots of outdoor holiday festivities. An amplifying trough/ridge pattern over the CONUS towards the middle of the week will remain conducive for continued unsettled weather. An open Gulf and strong moisture transport will interact with low pressure organizing over the Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday to bring another round of widespread rainfall, with potentially significant amounts. A cold front will then push south through the area Wednesday night, with quieter/cooler weather the second half of the week as high pressure skirts by to our west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Watching a cold front over western Minnesota and Iowa that will move through both airports during the overnight hours. Some showers and storms should get going ahead of this front in the warm sector this evening, but the latest runs of the RAP and HRRR suggest the warm sector and best chances for showers/storms to remain southeast of both airports. Any remaining MVFR ceilings are expected to move past the area very early this evening and will start with a VFR ceiling that will scatter out slowly from west to east tonight. Quiet conditions expected for Saturday with just some high clouds and west/southwest winds under 10 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 With the models not showing much training across the area tonight and the next round of heavy rain not expected until Sunday night through Tuesday, opted to just keep the ESF going. With this said, any storms that do develop tonight will have the potential of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, so we will have to watch them closely. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Kurz AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Isolated snow shower coverage over the mountains is coming to an end with the loss of daytime heating. Skies over northeast Colorado have become mostly clear except for an area of altcumulus over the Denver area. Low level moisture is beginning to move in from western Kansas, as evidenced by satellite imagery. This moisture is forecast by the HRRR to remain east of the Denver metro area. Although dew points are surging into the mid and upper 40s over Lincoln County, the HRRR and other models drop the dew points back into the 30s overnight, which will keep fog and stratus from developing. There must be enough veritcal mixing of the westerly flow aloft allowing the airmass to absorb the influx of moisture. Current forecast package captured all of the current trends, so will not be making any changes to the forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 An upper level trough can be seen on water vapor moving NNE out of central Utah. Some height falls and lift associated with the upper jet will bring isolated to scattered convection over the higher terrain by the afternoon, mainly over the northern mountains where better moisture exists. With the subsident side of the jet lifting to the NE, winds have decreased over the higher terrain, however some gusting up to 55 mph will still be possible into the early evening hours over the higher passes. At lower elevations, moderate westerly flow has helped to dry out the eastern plains with mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures back closer to seasonal normals. Some mid level clouds will move in by the evening as the upper disturbance moves over, which will help to keep overnight temperatures warming than the past few days. For Saturday, Colorado will continue to be in southwesterly flow aloft as another trough over the West coast moves inland. Dry mid level flow will push in keeping skies mostly sunny through most of the day. Surface flow will mainly be from the SSE that will help to usher in some weak moisture through the day. By the late afternoon there is a slight chance of some isolated convection over the central mountains, but most of the higher chances of convection lie further South and East. Temperatures will continue to rebound with highs on the plains expected to be in the mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 For Saturday night and Sunday, the next storm system will be dropping southward across California with a strong southwest flow aloft over Colorado. At the surface, increasing southeast winds will bring in a moist low level flow Saturday night which will increase low clouds and possible fog across portions of northeast plains of Colorado. Low confidence on how far west the low clouds/fog make but for now will keep the clouds/fog north and east of the Denver area. From late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, the upper low begins to move eastward into Nevada Utah with continued strong southwest flow aloft over Colorado. With strong southerly flow, temperatures will approach 80 degrees on the plains as 700mb temperatures rise to around +10c. Could see a potential dry line set up over the far northeast plains with a potential for severe storms with over 2000k/kg of available CAPE and sufficient shear profile for super cells. Best chances would be east and north of a line from from Anton to Sterling. SPC also has most of far eastern Colorado under a slight chance for severe storms for Sunday afternoon/evening. On Monday, the Great Basin upper low will be lifting northeast across northwest Colorado and into Wyoming and Nebraska Monday evening with moderate QG upward forcing over our northern mountains. The European solution is further south and slower with the track of the low (more across central Colorado) which would give much of the northern portions of our CWA better chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. 700mb temperatures drop to around 0C so certainly more snowfall can be expected over the mountains and higher foothills above 7500 feet or so. Tuesday will remain unsettled with continue cool conditions and lingering showers, especially over northeast Colorado if the European track verifies. There will be continued weak troughiness across much of the west through the week, so there will still be some moisture and limited instability over Colorado for mainly isolated late day showers and storms. Temperatures will climb back towards seasonal normals by late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 845 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 No aviation impacts expected overnight as skies become mostly clear and winds gradually return to typical drainage patterns. tomorrow morning will also see mostly clear skies along with southeasterly winds. During the afternoon there may be a slight chance of thunderstorm activity developing. Coverage of showers should be very spotty, so will leave the mention of showers out of the TAF products until there is a stronger indication that enough moisture will be present to support better shower coverage. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Dankers SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1016 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 The mesocale environment for tornadoes has now transitioned to mainly an elevated shower and thunderstorm threat tonight. Our southern 2/3rds is most favored for heavy rain, but the far northwest may see a narrow training line as well, thus keeping the flash flood watch going for now, though the amounts may average much lower than earlier forecast tonight. A storm survey team will be leaving in the morning to access the Johnson County/Frytown-Iowa City tornado event. ERVIN && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Atmosphere continues to destabilize with clearing in the wake of the earlier storms. Latest analysis shows low pressure over North Dakota with occluded front into triple point over central Iowa, with warm front extending near an Ottumwa to Fort Madison to Macomb line. Surface dew points are climbing through the 60s and lower 70s with the lifting warm front, with SPC RAP analysis showing MLCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg south of the boundary and 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60 kts over the region supportive of additional severe storms. As for storms do anticipate more tonight, with next round of warm/theta-e advection and weak energy in SW flow aloft... currently attendant to convection from Kansas into Oklahoma. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Anticipate storms to redevelop tonight, perhaps initially isolated to scattered surface based moving in/developing from central Iowa then further expansion in coverage with warm/theta-e advection attendant to LLJ. Shear/instability favorable for severe storms this evening potentially supercells with full range of hazards, including tornadoes especially with any interaction of warm front where more pronounced low level SRH and looping hodographs in 0-1km will exist. Flash flooding will also remain a concern and a growing one, especially in areas that received heavy rain already last night and earlier today. On Saturday, in similar fashion to today, expect bulk of any showers and storms favoring the first half of the day before waning LLJ and warm/theta-e advection. Highs should recover to around 80 or lower 80s most locations and with dew points into the upper 60s will feel quite summery. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Blocking pattern looks to persist through the middle of next week, with stagnant heat dome over the southeast states and broad troughing out west. This will result in continuation of the active pattern featuring periodic bouts of showers and storms with potential for some severe weather and heavy rain through Tuesday. Latter half of the week medium range models show a break down of the blocking pattern, and returning to NW flow aloft being more under influence of Hudson Bay low. This should lead to cooler and drier conditions by Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 A storm system will move across the region tonight with periods of showers and thunderstorms. The TAF period will be mainly VFR with periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities in showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of the storms will increase this evening before diminishing after 06 UTC Saturday. Winds will diminish this evening after a gusty day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Heavy rain fell over the last 24 hours across the region, with the heaviest amounts of an inch or more north of a line from Sigourney, IA through Freeport, IL. There was a narrower strip of amounts up to 3.50 inches from about Dysart, IA through Potosi, WI. With this rain and expected rains still through 12Z Saturday morning most river forecasts this morning saw rises, some quite significant rises. This continues to be a concerning situation with more rain in the forecast every day. With the ground conditions saturated, and accounting for little vegetation to pull any water out as the majority of farm fields are either not yet planted, or have very new plants emerging runoff amounts will be high with quicker responses in the rivers likely than would normally occur. Numerous flood warnings were issued this morning for tributary rivers. Many of these forecasts to show crests over the weekend, with falling levels next week. We would express caution with these forecasts as more rain is expected through the weekend and into next week which will likely either raise the crest forecasts or prolong the time the rivers remain high. On the Mississippi, significant rises were sent out in this morning`s forecasts. NOTE: these crest forecasts will likely change and rise further as more of the forecast rain gets utilized in the forecasts in the coming days. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Benton-Buchanan- Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa- Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa- Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington. IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Carroll- Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer- Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside. MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Cousins HYDROLOGY...Brooks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Aloft: Highly-amplified longwave flow was over the CONUS per RAP tropopause analyses/WV imagery/aircraft winds...with a trof over the W and the ridge over the E. SW flow was over NEB/KS and the flow will remain SW thru tomorrow. The flow will become more anticyclonic Sat with some modest 30-40 m height rises at 500 mb. Surface: Occluded low pres was over the Dakota`s with a cool front extending W into WY/MT. As this low heads into ON tonight ...this cool front will mv S into NEB/KS. It will mv into the CWA after 06Z and by 12Z it is fcst to bisect the CWA from NW-SE. Tomorrow AM it will exit the CWA and become then stationary just S and E of the CWA with wk high pres overtaking the Nrn Plns. Tonight: M/clear before midnight. Tstms will erupt over Ern KS late this aftn/eve. There is an outside chance a tstm could brush the extreme SE fringe of the CWA. It probably won`t happen. SREF MUCAPE is fcst 1000-1500 J/kg. So can`t completely rule out a strong or low- end svr tstm if anything meanders into the CWA. Incrsg clds after midnight. Some mdls are indicating sct tstms will dvlp at the nose of the low- lvl jet over NW KS/SW NEB after midnight...with this activity mvg ENE into the CWA. This potential seems reasonable as the low- lvl jet advects rich mstr N...resulting in instability...and the aprchg front providing additional lift. MUCAPE is fcst to incrs to 1500- 2000 J/kg S of I-80 with 30 kt of deep lyr shr. Sat: A few shwrs/tstms will probably linger into the AM hrs... espcly E of Hwy 183. Expect the aftn will be dry...but did leave a low 20% POP acrs the SE 1/2 of the CWA due to mdl uncertainty. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Aloft: The last 2 runs of global mdls remain tightly clustered on the SW flow remaining over NEB/KS thru Tue...maintaining the Wrn trof/Ern ridge over the CONUS. A low will be diving down the W coast into the Wrn trof Sat-Sun. This will force a shrtwv trof off Baja CA to accelerate NE and cross NEB/KS around 12Z/Mon. The low fcst to be over Srn NV is then fcst to mv thru UT/CO and into NEB by Tue. Cyclonic NW flow is expected Wed with the low weakening on its way to the GtLks. Heights should rise a bit Thu as a shrtwv ridge is fcst to build over NM/CO/WY. Surface: As low pres makes its way thru the Wrn USA Sun...the stalled front should lift back N as a warm front. Low pres is fcst to mv acrs NEB late Sun night thru Mon AM in association with the shrtwv trof. The front will become stationary across NEB Mon in the wake of the low. Meanwhile...the next low be forming over CO in response to the aprchg upr low. The CO low is fcst to mv into NEB Mon night into Tue and as it crosses the will its associated cool front. There is still some spread in the position of the low...and that will affect the sensible wx that results. The CWA will be in the cool sector Wed. Disagreement Thu...even btwn the 00Z and 12Z EC...precludes providing any details. Temps: Near normal Sun-Mon and probably Tue. Then cooler Wed-Thu but still very comfortable. Rain/Svr: With the stalled longwave pattern aloft...the wet pattern will cont. Sct tstms are possible every day thru Tue. Some storms will be svr. Sat night the chance for sct tstms will increase as the low-lvl jet dvlps strengthens in response to the RRQ of a 100 kt upr-level jet streak...and intersects the front. Low-lvl mstr advection will result in MUCAPE incrsg to 1500-3000 J/kg with deep lyr shr around 40 kts. This would support very large svr hail and isolated G60 mph. Late Sun aftn/eve...sct tstms will erupt over Wrn KS and expand/mv the CWA associated with the shrtwv trof. Again...shr/ instability will be strong enough for very large svr hail and isolated G60 mph and possibly a tornado or two. Mon is looking quiet during the day...but Mon ngt more tstms could erupt at intersection of the low-lvl jet with the front. Tue...uncertainty. But more tstms are psbl. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 This forecast could be a bit tricky. VFR conditions are expected initially, but MVFR or near-MVFR visibility is possible for several hours as some stratus may develop. Also thunderstorms are possible overnight, but coverage would not enough do much more than VCTS for the time being. South wind will become variable tonight and eventually become light form the north/east for Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Soil conds are wet acrs the entire CWA from 2-3" of rain that has fallen over most of the CWA. Parts of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell/ Jewell counties hv received 3 to almost 5". The S Fork of the Solomon Rvr is currently in minor flood acrs Osborne county...and downstream of Glen Elder Reservoir...the rvr spiked to action stage today. More hvy rain is psbl the next few days...and that could not only lead to localized flash flooding...but additional rises in creeks/rivers...espcly over N-cntrl KS and the Little Blue Rvr in S-cntrl NEB. .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Heinlein HYDROLOGY...Kelley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
630 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 618 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight regarding chances for rainfall. Confidence is still on the low side regarding storms developing after midnight. However, given the latest near term data, decided to increase chances for rainfall a bit. Storms, if they do form, should develop around 2 AM CT over the central part of the forecast area where a LLJ nose moves up and an upper level short wave trough moves in. The RAP and NAM both suggest that elevated CAPE above 850mb becomes available. Effective shear and 0-3 KM helicity both are supportive of rotating updrafts developing. The storm activity will remain on the low side, shifting east. The window for activity will be roughly 1-4 AM CT. Hail up to ping-pong ball size will be the main threat. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Tonight-Saturday...low confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing around or shortly after midnight as some elevated instability develops ahead of a weak weather disturbance moving across from the southwest. Primary area of concern is northeast of a line from Haigler to Hill City. Low temperatures range from the low to mid 40s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 50s from Norton to Hill City. On Saturday afternoon temperatures warm into the mid 70s to low 80s under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. A strong weather disturbance with good upper jet divergence moves north out of the Texas panhandle and into the southern half or so of the area by 00z (Sunday) sparking strong to severe thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Saturday night-Sunday...MCS type signature noted in upper level divergence fields as the expected cluster of storms across our far south moves northeast through early Sunday morning. Post frontal low clouds and some fog possible. Low temperatures look to range from the upper 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 50s in the east. For Sunday some fog possible in the morning otherwise we wait for the next weather disturbance thats expected to move into the area from the south by early afternoon, interacting with a dryline near the CO/KS border. Location of the greatest pops still in question but for now mainly along and south of the interstate. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. High temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night-Monday...thunderstorm activity moves off to the northeast during the night with high chance and low likely pops over much of the area. Dry weather expected for much of Monday. Cant completely rule out a few thunderstorms along the NAM model depicted dryline over a small part of our eastern counties. Confidence is low. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s west to low 60s east. High temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Upper low will track from the Great Basin Monday night to the northern Plains by Tuesday night. It will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, that track would place the central Plains under the dry slot, and as a result some question over moisture/instabilty. Severe parameters appear unfavorable at this time. After that system exits, will see zonal flow on Wednesday transition to shortwave ridging on Thursday then southwest flow reestablished for Friday. So will have a dry forecast on Thursday then only slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday to account for any weak disturbance in the southwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly below normal at the beginning of the period, then gradually return to near or slightly above normal by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at McCook and Goodland terminals, with the possible exception of a passing isolated thunderstorm at MCK. There is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm near the McCook terminal after 06Z tonight, around 08Z. IFR ceiling conditions will be possible with a passing thunderstorm. Winds are expected to decrease over the next 1 to 2 hours at both TAF sites. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...NEWMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
931 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .Forecast Update... Issued at 931 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 Evening satellite imagery indicated mostly clear skies over southern IN and central KY. A remnant convective complex was noted just south and west of Nashville TN with some of the cloud debris moving northward into KY. Temperatures remained quite mild with reading in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations were still close to 80, while some of the valley locations had dropped into the lower 70s. For the overnight period, the HRRR has been long advertising the convective complex over TN to move northward into central KY overnight. Looking at various analysis and water vapor imagery suggest that perhaps a weak mid-level vort lobe is responsible for the activity. The HRRR runs redevelop convection later this evening and mainly toward sunrise over portions of central KY. Right now, the best chances for any storms, look to be in a corridor from Bowling Green northeast toward Lexington. Given the insistence from the HRRR run, have opted to continue isolated PoPs for the overnight period across central KY with the evening update. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Urban corridors may remain warmer with readings in the mid 70s. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 ...Warm and humid this Memorial Day weekend... Strong high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southeastern U.S. in the short term. The main axis of convection tonight and Saturday will arc from parts of the southern and central Plains E and NE across the mid MS and OH Valleys on the northern periphery of this ridge, but mostly remain north of our area. Currently, GOES-16 VIS imagery shows plenty of diurnal cumulus clouds across central KY and southern IN, but mostly with subdued vertical development. However, there is some cloud enhancements over TN and northern MS associated with scattered showers/storms. Although water vapor imagery does not show much upper support (perhaps a very subtle shortwave), various models pick up on this area well, and lift it north into central KY tonight. As this occurs, diurnal instability will wane, so this feature may just be associated with clouds but no precip. Nevertheless, will carry isolated chances tonight along its path as lapse rates aloft should remain steep enough to support isolated nocturnal showers late tonight/early Saturday morning. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s (perhaps slightly cooler in valleys and slightly warmer in urban cores). Saturday should be a dry day for the most part. Showers and storms may be ongoing well to our west over parts of MO and perhaps IL. As this activity works east with new diurnal development ahead of it, much of this will remain to our north given the persistent ridge to our south. However, any outflow boundaries could cause a couple storms to sneak into southern IN during the afternoon, so slight chance carried there. Expect afternoon highs from 87-91. .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 Saturday Night - Tuesday... Amplified pattern continues to prevail for much of the long term period. Models indicate a shortwave ejecting out of the western trough on Sunday, flattening the ridge over our area. With moderate instability in place (SBCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg), showers and storms will be possible throughout the day. A similar pattern is expected to occur again on Monday, with another shortwave riding across the top of the ridge bringing renewed chances for daytime showers and storms. By Tuesday, the ridge is able to strengthen back across the Ohio Valley, keeping us dry and hot. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each day. Wednesday - Friday... On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move out of the Central Plains and up across the Great Lakes region, bringing an elongated cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. This will bring chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, some of which may be severe. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be much closer to normals, with highs in the low 80s on Thursday and Friday. High pressure will build over the area Friday, resulting in a dry and warm day. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 700 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 VFR conditions along with sustained southwesterly breezes are expected this evening and into the overnight period at the terminals. Some of the high resolution models suggest convective complex over west-central TN will move northeast this evening and we may see some additional development overnight across central KY. For now, have inserted a PROB30 group in at KLEX between 25/10-16Z to account for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period at the TAF sites for Saturday with breezy southwest winds continuing through at least sunset Saturday evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update.......MJ Short Term...TWF Long Term....JMB Aviation.....MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
612 PM PDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions are forecast through Saturday, along with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Unseasonably cool and unsettled conditions are forecast to develop later in the weekend as a system drops in from the north, with scattered showers maybe a stray thunderstorm possible on Sunday. Dry weather should return by Memorial Day, but temperatures will remain cool into early next week. && of 1:32 PM PDT Friday...Visible satellite imagery shows some areas of low clouds lingering over parts of the San Francisco and Monterey Bay areas this early afternoon. These low clouds are preventing efficient solar heating thus far this afternoon for some locations. For example, the Sonoma County Airport (KSTS) is running 12 degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago as a consequence to the marine stratus. The most recent satellite trends reveal that clearing is occurring in the North Bay Valleys, but with the delayed sunshine, have gone ahead and dropped afternoon maximum temperatures for most North Bay locations by several degrees. The East Bay south of the Bay Bridge as well as the South Bay have been mostly sunny since mid- morning, and are actually running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. By the time the afternoon wraps up, high temperatures along the coast will warm to the upper 50s to 60s while interior locations will warm to the middle/upper 60s to middle 70s. These values equate to about 3 to 9 degrees below late May climatological normal values. If you`re looking for warm weather in the Bay Area for the holiday weekend, I do not have good news for you. There is high confidence of continued below normal temperatures through Memorial Day as another upper level low drops south from the Pacific Northwest by the second half of the weekend. This upper low will bring a reinforced shot of cooler air, as well as another opportunity of rain showers on Sunday. Snow levels will drop to around 5,000 ft, per the official forecast and the National Blend of Models (NBM); however, the 12Z run of our local in-house WRF drops snow levels to 4,200 to 4,500 ft for some locations. Just to quantify how anomalous this upper low is -- the 850 mb geopotential height levels over our area are forecast to correspond to about -3 to -4 sigma (standard deviations) with respect to the 1979-2009 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). At the surface, these temperatures will translate to about 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Hikers, campers, and outdoor enthusiasts with plans to head to the higher elevations on Sunday should plan accordingly for cold temperatures and rain showers, as well as the possibility of isolated snow showers if snow levels drop lower than the present official forecast. Will also have to keep a close eye on the possibility of thunder for parts of the area, but for now think the best odds will be to our east in the Sierra. For Memorial Day, temperatures should begin to rebound as the upper low exits the area with highs in the 50s and 60s along the coast and middle 60s to near 70 for inland communities. Can`t rule out some lingering showers in the mountains during the day, but think most locations will be dry for the holiday itself. Temperatures will continue to moderate through the middle of next week with the NBM bringing back some 80 degree readings returning to the warmest locations by Wednesday or Thursday. With that said, though, both the GFS and ECMWF are keeping a trough over the West Coast, so temperatures will likely just return back to near normal values. There is hope for those waiting for warmer weather -- the Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook does begin to favor the likelihood of experiencing above normal temperatures for the June 1 to 7 period. && of 6:12 PM PDT Friday...It`s VFR inland except for a few brief isolated late day showers over easternmost Santa Clara county and a group of showers and thunderstorms over Lake county entering northernmost Napa county. Convective potential diminishes with the loss of daytime warming, but a few showers and lingering lightning strikes may reach into northern Napa county for a couple more hours. Coastal low clouds with an embedded surface to lower level cyclonic eddy circulation seen per visible imagery will fill in along the coast and spread MVFR ceilings inland this evening. A fairly rapid succession of lower level thermal ridging to a mainly dry cool front approx 300 miles NW of San Francisco will accelerate southeast to approx 30 mph per GFS and ECMWF theta-e forecasts later tonight into Saturday morning. Forecast is MVFR ceilings trending lower to IFR ceilings as cloud ceilings become increasingly compressed under temporary subsidence and prefrontal convergence; latest NAM also forecasts pockets of light drizzle/rain, the HRRR also similarly showing smaller pocket of qpf on the San Mateo Coast. GFS and ECMWF theta-e show the cool front clearing well to our south later Saturday. Post cool frontal winds in the spring season are often breezy to gusty thus decided to bump up Saturday`s winds in the tafs up over statistical guidance at least for KSFO, KOAK, KSJC. Statistical guidance then showing increasing winds arriving Saturday night. Model differences in boundary layer RH lowers confidence as to how quickly low clouds may clear Saturday, for now tafs lean toward sct- bkn MVFR cloud coverage for much of the day. Pilots should plan on gusty winds, lowering freezing levels over the cwa over the holiday weekend and convection some of which could be borderline isolated severe with the arrival of a deep cold core mid to upper low Sunday. Vicinity of KSFO...Low clouds converging along the coast with lower level cooling forecast by the NAM through mid-late evening. Tempo MVFR 03z-05z then prevailing MVFR tonight. West winds generally up over 12 knots tonight then increasingly gusty around cool frontal passage Saturday morning, cool frontal passage occurs by 15z. Gusty post frontal winds Saturday lasting into Saturday night. Sct-bkn MVFR ceilings Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...W-NW winds near 10 knots with low clouds developing early this evening. MVFR locally IFR ceilings tonight, coastal drizzle or light rain possible later tonight into Saturday morning, not in tafs presently, will amend as needed. Winds likely becoming gusty Saturday, may need to bump up winds a bit more than presently advertised in 00z tafs. && of 5:07 PM PDT Friday...Gusty northerly flow will develop tonight as a low pressure moves into the Great Basin. Gusty winds will continue into the upcoming weekend. Moderate northwest swell will continue through the weekend with steep fresh swell generated by the gusty winds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 PM until 3 AM GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: MM Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
601 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 554 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Ran a quick update to remove precipitation chances for the far Eastern Plains tonight into the morning. The latest guidance keeps things dry over our CWA. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 The upper level flow will be from the southwest during the short term forecast period (6PM today through 6PM Saturday). The response will be dry conditions across most of the region for the entirety of the forecast period, but there will be a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon over the far eastern Plains. Low temperatures tonight will be right around seasonal for this time of year. Expect lows over the Plains to be in the mid-40s, the San Luis Valley (SLV) to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, the upper Arkansas River Valley (Upper Ark) to be in the mid-30s, and the mountains to be in the 20s to 30s. Saturday will be another predominantly dry day in response to the upper level southwesterly flow. There will be a dryline forming over the far eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, which will form isolated thunderstorms, some likely severe. The SPC`s outlook indicates an "enhanced" risk for severe thunderstorms near the Kansas and Colorado border. A forecast sounding point, resolved by the NAM, over Baca County reveals around 3000 to 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, around 1500 J/kg of DCAPE, LCL heights around 1500 meters, lapse rates around the dry adiabatic rate, and SRH values around 175 m2/s2. All of that leads to the outcome of having an isolated supercell thunderstorms developing over the far eastern Plains during the afternoon hours. The LCLs are a little high for favorable tornadogenesis, but tornados are possible. Large hail, up to two inches, is possible underneath the strongest storms and wind gusts around 70 mph are possible. Convective initiation timing will be around the 3PM MDT hour, plus or minus an hour. The experimental 18Z HRRR has discrete supercellular storms and helicity swaths developing around the 3PM MDT time period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 Initially, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the southeastern Colorado plains(please review short-term discussion above), especially far eastern locations into later Saturday afternoon and possibly Saturday evening, with decreasing storm activity after midnight. Further west, generally dry conditions in combination with near seasonal later May temperatures are anticipated Saturday night. For Sunday, another round of strong to possibly severe dryline thunderstorms are projected from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening(again favoring far eastern locations), which is well depicted by the recent Sunday SPC Severe Thunderstorm outlook. Near to above seasonal temperatures are anticipated across southern Colorado from Sunday into Memorial Day Monday in combination with gusty winds. At this time, will continue to refrain from issuing fire weather highlights during this time-frame as land management agencies continue to indicate that fuels are not favorable for larger-scale fire activity. Also, the warm temperatures will continue to increase snow melt into southern Colorado`s streams and rivers from this weekend into Monday. Next system is tracking a bit further north than earlier longer term models depicted, however will continue with theme of cooler temperatures in combination with increased pops favoring the western 2/3rds of the CWA from Tuesday into Wednesday. Then, passing upper disturbances interacting with adequate atmospheric moisture will allow for primarily afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms over several locations from Thursday into next Friday in combination with temperatures running near to slightly above late May climatological averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019 VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the forecast period. Gusty southwesterly winds are anticipated to develop over KALS and KCOS during the afternoon hours tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY