Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/24/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across the area this evening. High pressure from the northern Plains will build east across the region on Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday then sink south again on Sunday keeping the weather across the region warm but unsettled through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The sky cleared out nicely with sunset and cold front is just about through the forecast area at this time. Temperatures dipped into the 60s across the north but remain in the 70s in the south. Cooler temperatures will follow through the night. Since thunderstorm threat moved south and east of the area, removed chance for precipitation overnight. Otherwise, no other major changes. Previous Discussion... Mixed layer CAPES running 500-1000J/kg across the area with the most unstable air just to our southwest. High resolution forecasts show this instability growing northeast into the southern and southeastern counties and then shifting southeast as the front moves through. Also watching the area of cu development which so far has been capped but shows the most unstable air. The HRRR continues its trend of not really developing convection in the area through the evening. Don`t completely trust it however so for the late afternoon and early evening will continue with chance pops there. Dry elsewhere. Overnight and Friday high pressure builds in. Friday night models show the front returning as a warm front, driven north by low pressure moving into the western lakes. Models show increasing mid level rh across the area in the isentropic lift of moist southwest flow. Will have chance pops showers developing/drifting into the area from the north, mainly after midnight. Highs friday from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... We will have a very Spring like day on Saturday and most of the weekend with a deep southwesterly flow both at the surface and alot up to 500 mb. A mid level shortwave will move across the upper Great Lakes region and an embedded impulse will be move through the west- southwest flow at 500 mb Saturday afternoon. Moderate instablilty along with plenty of low level moisture and deep shear through the mid levels will support at least the potential for some severe weather. Given the uniform shear wind profile, linear form of storm development with strong damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards expected. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area in a Day 3 slight risk outlook which looks reasonable at this time. It appears the greatest threat time for active weather will be late Saturday afternoon through mid evening. Storms will lose their punch later Saturday evening and Saturday night. A frontal boundary will sag southward into Ohio late on Sunday. South of the boundary will destabilized with a warm and humid airmass. Additional strong to maybe some severe storms could be possible again south of the boundary Sunday afternoon given the westerly shear and instability. The front clears through the area Sunday night with slightly cooler and drier air late Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The frontal boundary drifts back northward as a warm front Monday night with a risk for scattered showers and isolated storms if we get a little low level trying to nose in across western Ohio. Mid level heights rise on Tuesday with warm southwest winds. Warmer and humid air moves back in with highs in the middle 80s and the threat for some scattered convection in the late afternoon and evening. A stout looking mid level shortwave will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Region sometime Wednesday or mid week. Timing on this feature will make a difference if we have a severe weather threat or not for Wednesday or Wednesday evening. At this time, we will mention at least the threat for more stormy weather mid week and warm and breezy weather. An upper level trough will try to start building across the Great Lake Region by the end of the week with slightly cooler weather. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A cold front continues to push east across the area at this time and will move east of the area overnight. A couple thunderstorms developed south of Youngstown but they will continue to move east away from the area. Cumulus cloud field appears to be diminishing as more stable air from Lake Erie moves south over the region. This should keep threat for showers or thunderstorms at a minimum. Once front moves through the area, VFR will prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will diminish as well with the passage of the cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Westerly winds increased this afternoon over the lake and Small Craft Advisories were issued for 20 to 25 knots winds and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds will shift to more northwesterly late this evening and over night with a decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Weak high pressure will move over the lake Friday morning with light and variable winds. Southeasterly winds will return Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front moving across the lake. Winds will shift and increase Saturday afternoon up to 20 or 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories may be needed again on Saturday. A cold front will drift southward across the lake on Sunday and shift the wind to northwesterly. High pressure will give a break in the weather for the lake on Monday with lighter winds and waves. Strong low pressure will move across the upper Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday with gusty winds for Lake Erie. South-southwesterly winds may approach 20 to 25 knots again and Small Craft Advisory conditions may be needed again Tuesday into Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1107 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Plentiful moisture, frontal boundary and upper level disturbance will lead to widespread thunderstorms, some severe, through the midnight hour. Surface based storms, which may be tornadic, will be confined to the warm front zone over south central Kansas, with elevated hailers to the north and west. On Friday the effective frontal boundary will be undergoing frontolysis, but there should still be enough convergence for surface based storms in south central Kansas; and some of these will likely be severe with large hail and damaging winds. These storms may be south and east of Barber county depending on the exact location of the front. South central Kansas will have to be watched for additional flooding given the heavy rains expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 The pattern will remain active through at least Monday as another shortwave trough slowly approaches. There will be chances for severe storms somewhere across the plains each day. Mesoscale boundaries will likely play an increasing role in storm mode as often happens as we get deeper into the warm season. A break in the wet weather can be expected from late Tuesday into early Thursday in the wake of the upper level disturbance. This system will push a cold front through western Kansas with drier air. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Scattered convection will continue for a few more hours, with locally heavy rain and reduced cig/vis. HRRR model shows convection ending and/or exiting eastward out of SW KS by 12z Fri, with dry conditions returning to the airports. Outside of convection, winds will trend light NW overnight, before becoming light and variable around sunrise Friday. After 18z Fri, modestly gusty south/southeast winds will resume at all airports, averaging 10-20 kts. VFR will prevail daylight Friday, with afternoon convection favoring areas south and east of DDC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 54 76 61 81 / 80 10 30 40 GCK 47 78 58 82 / 60 10 20 40 EHA 46 78 53 81 / 30 10 10 50 LBL 50 77 56 80 / 60 20 20 40 HYS 54 79 61 82 / 80 10 30 20 P28 63 75 65 82 / 70 50 40 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ066-079>081- 088>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Aloft: 12Z RAOB data/WV imagery and RAP dynamic tropopause analyses cont to show the persistent Wrn trof/Ern ridge pattern that has been locked-in for the last wk. This was maintaining SW flow over the NEB/KS that will remain so thru tomorrow. A low was over UT with a shrtwv trof mvg NE thru CO/NM. Spaghetti plots of the last 2 runs of mdls are tightly clustered on this low heading NE acrs WY into MT by 12Z/Fri...and then acrs ND into Srn MB tomorrow. The shrtwv trof will head NNE acrs Wrn NEB into the Dakota`s tonight. Surface: The prvs cool front that mvd thru here was stationary from MO-OK-NM. High pres was over SD. Wk low pres will form along the front and move NE acrs NEB/KS tonight...forcing the front to move back N as a warm front. A stronger low will form over WY and move into the Dakota`s. A cool front will be associated with this low...but it will remain over SD tomorrow...leaving the CWA in the warm sector. Today: persistent WAA has been occurring atop the cool air mass in place...basically along the 850 mb front in Wrn/Cntrl KS. This has resulted in persistent shwrs and a few tstms here and there. The low-lvl jet will incrs to 45-50 kt tonight resulting in the plume of rich 850 mb dwpts of +15C to advect N into the CWA... along with strong WAA/convergence. This will support cont`d tstm formation. There is uncertainty on the Nrn extent on the Nrn extent of the instability/CAPE sufficient to support svr hail. We already had 1" hail reported near Lovewell Reservoir. So it appears we hv what we need. Svr tstm watch 220 is in effect for 5 of our 6 KS counties until 03Z. Hail will be the primary threat. Tonight: Cldy with periods of shwrs/tstms. Can`t rule out some svr hailers mainly over our KS counties. There are considerable diff`s among the CAMs as to how tstms over KS might unfold...but all of them hv multiple tstms and/or periods of tstms mvg NE acrs KS. The Nrn extent of this activity could result in hvy rain amts. Will maintain Flash Flood Watch for Jewell/Mitchell/Osborne counties. The 18Z NAM nest suggests enough tstms could initiate over KS to form a sqln. Rain/tstms will end from W-E after midnight. Fri: Any lingering low clds at dawn will quickly exit. Sunny and much warmer. Highs around 80F. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Pattern: The last 2 runs of global mdls are in good agreement with the EC and GFS ensemble means that the persistent Wrn trof/Ern ridge will cont thru Tue. Wed-Thu considerable spread dvlps as the mdls suggest some chgs...with less of a Wrn trof ...more of a NE USA trof which would suppress the SE USA subtropical high. The EC runs and the 00Z ens mean form a cut-off low over CA with SW flow cont over NEB/KS. Due to the uncertainty...fcst confidence decreases after Tue. Aloft: Heights in SW flow will rise a bit over NEB/KS Sat-Sun and become anticyclonic in response to a deep low dropping down the W coast and into the Wrn trof. SW flow will cont thru Tue. The low will round the base of the trof thru the Desert SW Mon-Mon night. The mdl consensus is that it weakens into a trof as it crosses NEB/KS Tue night. Present indications are that low heights will cont into Wed in the wake of the trof. Surface: The low over the Dakota`s Fri eve will mv into ON Fri night...allowing the cool front to sink into NEB/KS. This front will become quasi-stationary acrs KS Sat-Sun...but as pres begins falling in the lee of the Rckys...this front should lift N as a warm front late Sun. This front will become stationary from SW-NE Mon as one or more lows mv NE along the front. This front should finally mv E of the CWA by Tue with wk high pres building over the Cntrl Plns Wed. Temps: Near to slightly abv normal Sat-Mon. Then cooler than normal Tue-Wed. Rain: Can`t rule out a few shwrs/tstms each day thru Tue...but the best chance will currently appears to be Sun night. Too much convective uncertainty and too many tstm chances to get into the details this far in advance. Please follow SPC outlook for more. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the terminals for the next few hours. Ceilings will be IFR and even LIFR as some of the precipitation moves through the area. Later tonight the clouds will start to clear out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Precip amts hv been hvy acrs N-cntrl KS over the last 7 days... with 2-4". More hvy rain is psbl tonight. Flash Flood Watch will cont as posted. The S Fork of the Solomon Rvr is running high... at or abv action stage. It will not take much to result in Flash Flooding or minor river flooding. .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ007-018-019. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ007-018-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...JCB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
605 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 548 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 As was indicated earlier, storm intensity has increased from earlier as elevated CAPE has also increased. This should last for another hour or two before the storm intensity begins to weaken as the next round of storms begin to develop. Water vapor imagery continues to show a corridor of moisture in the same location as earlier in the day, lowering confidence that storms will spread over the forecast area from the west. What may be more likely is storm activity increases east of the CO border, forming more of a line that spreads east. Effective shear will be even stronger this evening, which gives concern that the hail threat will be even greater for the next couple of hours before declining. && .UPDATE... Issued at 439 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 So far hail reports have been on the low side of the severe spectrum. As the afternoon progresses, effective shear will remain the same however the elevated CAPE will increase. Therefore have expanded the severe thunderstorm watch north to the Nebraska line. Latest radar imagery is showing the next round of storm activity already moving over Southern Colorado. This storm activity will move into the forecast area around 6 PM MT. Storms should be in a broken, if not solid, line as they move into the forecast area. Storms will then spread east, exiting the Norton/Graham counties around midnight. Once the storms form more of a squall line the threat for the larger hail should diminish (golf ball size). Confidence of flooding occurring is not quite high enough at this time to issue a watch. Storms will continue to be moving quickly through the evening. In addition there is a vary narrow swath of rainfall amounts close to 1.5", while 6 hour flash flood guidance is 2.2-2.4". && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 18Z Water Vapor Imagery, RAP analysis indicated large closed low circulation centered near the four corners region, with 1.5 pvu fields indicating several smaller amplitude troughs moving through the flow around it. At the surface, frontal zone was well to the south of the area and generally ran parallel to the KS and OK state line and then southwest through the Texas panhandle. Main short term forecast concerns will center around thunderstorms and precipitation amounts through tonight, followed by fog and near freezing conditions tonight. Thunderstorms have continued to redevelop in broad area of isentropic ascent/WAA to the north of frontal zone. With persistent moist flow over the front, storms continue to redevelop and should continue to do so through the evening. Expect periods of precipitation to continue through the evening hours, before short wave trough moves over area, shifting winds to the west aloft and ending any forced ascent around 06Z. Elevated instability as per MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG are expected across southeastern zones through the evening will help drive stronger storms in this area. While storms not rooted in surface, elevated shear profiles around 40 kts and aforementioned instability will support a few severe hail storms south of a Weskan to Norton line tonight. With saturated ground and several rounds of storms, am a little concerned about flooding. However storms have been moving fast enough to limit accumulations to under 0.2 of an inch each round. While there is a high likelihood standing water may become an issue tonight, quick storm motions should limit the flash flooding threat and do not anticipate a watch at this point. Persistent, near saturated easterly flow will maintain a low cloud deck that should gradually lower into fog before midnight. As system clears out storms, think there will be a 3 or 4 hour window where a few pockets of dense fog may occur, before surface winds shift to the west and airmass dries. With potential for thunderstorms for a good part of this period, confidence too low to issue any kind of fog highlight at this point in time. As skies clear out around sunrise, expect to see temperatures dip into eastern Colorado to around 34 bringing at least a small threat for frost to form. Think there are a lot of things that will have to be timed just right for this to become a widespread problem, but this should be monitored. On Friday, expect dry conditions, westerly winds and temperatures rebounding to near 80 at many locations behind todays system. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 Overview: An active pattern characterized by a persistent upper level ridge over the Deep South/Southeast and troughing aloft over the Intermountain West/Rockies will prevail through early next week. Long range guidance suggests that the ridge over the eastern CONUS will relent /break down/ mid-week as an upper level low digs southeast from the Northwest Territories/Nunavut to the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. Sat-Tue: A series of shortwaves will round the base of the trough over the Intermountain West and eject northeast across the High Plains in this period. Meanwhile -- southerly flow on the western periphery of the ridge over the Southeast/Deep South will maintain rich low-level moisture advection from the western GOMEX into portions of the Southern/Central Plains. In such a pattern, expect above normal chances for convection and episodic severe weather. Although the greatest potential for convection will likely be during the aft/eve hours (climatology) -- convection will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours. Wed-Thu: At this time, long range guidance indicates that confluent flow aloft will prevail over the Rockies/High Plains by mid-week -- suggesting at or below normal chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 548 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main concern will be timing the ceiling category changes during the first 6 hours of the TAF. At this point, looks like KGLD will raise to VFR after the second round of storms move east of the site. However KMCK will fall to IFR then raise back to MVFR behind the second round of storms. What is concerning is that there is not a clear distinction of whether the ceiling will increase to MVFR for KMCK or remain at IFR. Due to a lack of confidence as far as which way to go, decided to remain with the consensus for the TAF. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...JTL UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
908 PM PDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions are forecast through Saturday, along with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Unseasonably cool and unsettled conditions are forecast to develop later in the weekend as a system drops in from the north, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible on Sunday. Dry weather should return by Memorial Day, but temperatures will remain cool into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...As of 9:05 PM PDT Thursday...An upper low is centered over the Great Basin this evening while a vort lobe rotates around the west side of the low and across Eastern California. This vorticity lobe has been triggering isolated shower activity over mainly the eastern edge of our forecast area since mid afternoon. Showers recently developed over far eastern Contra Costa County and are moving south into eastern Alameda County. There have been reports of lightning and thunder, but based on lightning detection networks, it appears that thunderstorms are farther to the east over San Joaquin County. Based on latest HRRR and the 00Z NAM, all shower activity should end by late evening. The upper low is forecast to move quickly off the the northeast tonight and Friday. Thus, Friday is expected to be a dry day under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain cooler than average. A couple of weather systems lurking well to our north are forecast to drop south late in the week and through the weekend. The first, currently over British Columbia, is expected to move into northeastern California by Friday night. Models keep precipitation with this system to our north and east. A second, stronger, system, currently located near the south coast of Alaska, is forecast to follow closely behind the first. The models agree that a cold upper low will dig south along or near the California coast late Saturday night and Sunday, and perhaps directly over the SF Bay Area on Sunday. This unseasonably cool and robust system will likely generate scattered showers across our area on Sunday and Sunday evening (showers could start as early as Saturday night). In addition, there may be sufficient instability for isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Models indicate the best potential for thunderstorms on Sunday will be across the southern half of our forecast area, primarily from the South Bay southward. Rainfall totals with this weekend`s system will depend on the exact track of the system. The 00Z NAM shows the upper low center tracking just offshore, and thus gives the system move over-water trajectory compared to the 12Z ECMWF. Thus, the NAM generates more than twice the precipitation compared to the ECMWF. The 18Z GFS QPF is similar to the wetter NAM. If the ECMWF were to verify, precipitation totals would mostly be below a quarter inch, but the 00Z NAM shows precipitation totals close to an inch in some sections of Monterey and San Benito Counties. All models agree that the heavier rainfall totals with the Sunday system will be over our the southern portion of our area - mainly Monterey and San Benito Counties. The Sunday system is forecast to be unseasonably cold, with the NAM forecasting snow levels to drop as low as 4000 feet. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is more conservative with snow levels, maintaining levels above 5000 feet on Sunday. Once again, much will depend on the exact track of the upper low. If the low`s cold core tracks over or very close to our area, we could see snow accumulation on the higher peaks in the Santa Lucia Mountains of Monterey County on Sunday. And it`s not out of the question that snow could fall as low as the highest peaks in the Bay Area (e.g., Mount Hamilton). Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be as much as 20 degrees below normal. The upper low is forecast to move well off to the southeast of our area by Monday. Thus, dry weather is expected to return by Memorial Day. Temperatures will warm slightly on Monday, but still remain well below normal. Although temperatures are forecast to climb close to normal by the middle of next week, there doesn`t appear much evidence from the longer range models of any significant warming trend. In fact, some longer range model solutions show an upper low retrograding from the Great Basin over California and bringing more shower chances later next week. && of 4:44 PM PDT Thursday...Low clouds have stayed in along the coast south of San Francisco including the MRY Bay Area terminals. Some afternoon cumulus was forming in the SFO Bay Area with convection limited to the higher terrain of the East Bay and the Santa Lucias. Less winds tonight will allow low clouds to spread into SFO and OAK and the North Bay valleys tonight but well after the airport evening rush. Vicinity of KSFO...Becoming MVFR after 09Z. West to southwest winds 12-14 kt through 04Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Possibly less clouds late tonight compare to KSFO and KOAK. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clearing not expected this afternoon. MVFR cigs lowering to IFR after 05Z. && .MARINE...As of 8:39 PM PDT Thursday...Gusty winds gradually decrease late tonight and early Friday as low pressure over the Nevada moves east. Gusty northwest winds will redevelop over the coastal waters Friday night through the weekend as another low moves inland over the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. A large northwest swell will subside but remain moderate through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar until 3 AM SCA...SF Bay from 9 PM until 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: W Pi MARINE: W Pi Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Evening) Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 This afternoon, the mid level trough was observed across northern Utah with a notable perturbation on water vapor lifting across western Kansas. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is beginning to expand across western Kansas at the current hour with the anticipation of these cells organizing into line segments as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable further eastward into south central and portions of north central Kansas. In addition to our focus out west, we are also monitoring a warm front positioned from the Kansas and Oklahoma border through southeast KS to south central MO. While models are vary some on the northward progression this afternoon, most short term guidance lift the front in the Ottawa, Dickinson, and Morris county area by 6 PM this evening. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP are indicating the potential for some initial cell development ahead of the western Kansas convection within the warm sector south of the front or in vicinity during the late afternoon and early evening. These supercells may be more discrete and given the low level effective helicity increasing to near 200 m2/s2 at this time, the threat for a few tornadoes is possible in addition to large hail and damaging wind gusts. These cells are expected to lift north and east during the early evening, merging with the line of convection entering north central Kansas after 9 PM. The strong low level southerly jet coupled with >2000 J/KG of MUCAPE suggest the strongest updrafts within the line may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storm mergers should deter the tornado threat later in the evening, however cannot be completely ruled out. Latest several runs of the RAP, HRRR, and HREF are hinting at minimal forward progression overnight with the heaviest concentration of rainfall remaining over north central Kansas. These areas may be subject to the highest rainfall amounts with forecast totals from 2 to 3 inches through Friday morning. Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible. Further south and east towards much of northeast and east central areas, storms are expected to gradually weaken in these areas, therefore 1 to 2 inches is the more likely scenario. Based on the 2 to 3 inches stretching towards far northeast areas, have decided to expand the Flood Watch to include areas near the Nebraska border, Jackson, and Pottawatomie counties for tonight. Overall trends have the convection clearing north and east Friday morning with a break in precip expected during the afternoon. As the warm front reaches the Nebraska border tomorrow, much of the area warms to the lower 80s with dewpoints potentially reaching 70 degrees by late afternoon. As the upper trough shifts towards the North Dakota area by late afternoon, a mid level jet max lifts over the plains with focus for development along a southwest to northeast oriented boundary. Given the high instability and strong bulk shear values up to 50 kts, severe storms are likely with all modes possible, especially heavy rainfall through the overnight hours. For tomorrow afternoon and evening, the focus area for heaviest rainfall appears to bisect the CWA, from Dickinson county through Marshall county, along with areas south and east. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Focus in the extended remains in the heavy rainfall and severe storm potential from Saturday through Tuesday. Mean southwesterly flow aloft coupled with several perturbations ejecting into the central plains enhances the flooding potential, especially given that some areas have received in upwards of 10 inches of rain since the beginning of the month. On Saturday, a boundary is progged to be positioned somewhere over the state with indications for development along the boundary in the afternoon, becoming more widespread in coverage in the evening hours. Models are still differing on position of the boundary and therefore where the heaviest rainfall axis occurs is still in question. Confidence however remains moderate that portions of central Kansas will see the best chance for scattered severe storms and the heaviest rainfall. Surface based convection is more probable given the lack of inhibition and expansive instability. Effective bulk shear is not as high, but still supportive of supercells with all hazards being possible. As storms congeal overnight, a line of storms is likely as they progress across over most of the CWA late Saturday night. A similar scenario occurs Sunday night with the best pops currently over north central Kansas. Activity spreads eastward over much of northeast Kansas Memorial Day afternoon and evening as the main cold front arrives. As the cold front surges through Tuesday morning, there is finally a break in precip with a cooler and drier airmass in place on Tuesday. Thereafter, upper ridge tries to build over the Pacific Northwest with another closed low turning across the southwest. Models differ on the strength of the upper ridge and whether the closed low has an impact on the central plains after Wednesday. Kept low chances throughout the week given the GFS is still showing scattered storms in the area. Temps during the extended are near normal in the mid and upper 70s for highs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 MVFR cigs are expected until the frontal boundary moves to the north of the terminals and winds shift to the south which will occur in the 09Z-13Z time period. Scattered tsra is also expected at MHK after 02Z and at TOP and FOE around 06Z. LLWS still expected with southeast surface winds and them winds from the southwest near 1500 ft increasing to 40 kts through 12Z. Scattered showers and tsra are expected through 18Z. Additional development possible near the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prieto LONG TERM...Prieto AVIATION...53