Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/23/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1040 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will thicken and lower overnight with some isolated to scattered showers possible with a weak disturbance this morning mainly from the Capital Region south, as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region. A frontal system associated with this low will bring humid conditions for Thursday along with some showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions will return for Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system approaching from the west could bring some showers by late Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1040 PM EDT...The sfc anticyclone continues to move east/southeast of Long Island at 02Z. The mid-level ridge axis is over NY and New England border based on the latest RAP13. Mid and high clouds have increased across the region ahead of a weak disturbance running into the ridge. Some light pcpn echoes continue on the KENX radar mainly north and west of Albany. Most of this is virga due to the dry low-levels with dewpts in the 20s to lower 40s and the very dry 00Z KALY sounding below 700 hPa. The best warm advection ahead of the weak short-wave rounding the ridge is approaching the Tug Hill Plateau and western NY. We retooled the PoPs based on the latest 3-km HRRR and NamNest with the best forcing settling south and east of the I-90 corridor in the early morning hours. Most of western New England and the Lake George Region/Capital Region may remain dry. The isold- scattered showers will likely be the most persistent over the eastern Catskills/mid-Hudson Valley. A rumble of thunder may graze the Catskills, but the probability looks low with a pocket of elevated instability. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to lower to mid 50s, and temps may steady or slightly rise in the early to mid morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Morning showers across southern areas should depart by mid morning, with a relative lull in precipitation until early afternoon. However, models suggest quite a bit of mid level clouds persisting in most areas during this time, limiting heating, and also dewpoints are forecast to only slowly rise into/through the 50s. By afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western/central NYS, closer to greater mid level height falls and low level forcing ahead of an approaching cold/occluded front. Mid level wind fields are expected to increase dramatically Thursday afternoon, with H700-H500 winds reaching 50-60 KT or slightly higher by late afternoon. So, kinematics will be very strong, but it remains questionable whether enough thermodynamics will be present to create sufficient updrafts to work in tandem with the strong deep layered shear and allow for any discrete storms to become supercellular. It appears that instability will remain weak, with MU CAPES likely only reaching several hundred J/kg across the western Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks, and less farther south and east. The weaker instability may not be enough to overcome the strong mid level wind fields, and could result in highly tilted updrafts with any discrete cells that can form. Showers and some thunderstorms will likely move into the region from the west during the mid to late afternoon, some of which could contain strong wind gusts if they become tall enough and/or organize into a line. The best chances for this may be if discrete cells upstream of our region form into a QLCS, which could then propagate into the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondack region and possibly points immediately south and east, potentially mixing down strong winds from aloft due to momentum transfer. Again, this is a possibility, but not certain, but should this mode develop, then a better chance for damaging wind gusts would occur across the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondack region and perhaps as far S/E as the greater Capital Region of NY and into southern VT. As for any discrete cells, this potential, albeit small, would mainly be areas west of the Hudson River across the SE Catskills and perhaps western mid Hudson Valley region. SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk area westward from earlier issuances (now only covering extreme western Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks) with Marginal Risk also trimmed back farther west, extending to just east of the Hudson River. High temperatures Thursday may reach the lower/mid 70s in some valley areas, especially across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and Capital Region, with mainly 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Gusty south winds will also develop later in the day, with some gusts possibly reaching 25-35 mph in some north/south valleys including portions of the Capital Region. For Thursday night, showers and scattered thunderstorms may linger into the evening hours, before ending from west to east before midnight. Breezy and cooler conditions will then filter into the region behind an occluded front, with some spotty showers/sprinkles possible across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible across higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. Strong west/northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph later at night behind the front, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Friday-Friday night, breezy and cool for Friday, with clouds and some showers/sprinkles possible across northern areas due to the passage of main upper level trough/cold pool. Better chances for clearing will be across southern areas. Highs mainly in the 60s, although some lower 70s could occur late in the day in some valley areas, while some higher elevations across the Adirondacks and southern VT remain in the 50s. Gusty west/northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph. Clearing for Friday night, and cool with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. Some 30s could occur across the SW Adirondacks and eastern Catskills if skies remain clear long enough. Saturday, the next fast moving frontal system will approach from the Great Lakes region later in the day or at night. Expect increasing clouds during Saturday, with chances for showers increasing in the afternoon. Some thunder could also occur, although initial instability parameters look fairly limited through sunset. Highs mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s, although could be warmer if more sunshine occurs through the morning hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended forecast period begins unsettled for the middle portion of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but high pressure looks to build in late Sunday pm into Monday. If the ridge holds on, then fair weather may continue into early Tuesday before unsettled weather returns for the mid-week. Saturday Night into Sunday...A prefrontal sfc trough and a cold front will bring an increase of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area Saturday night. The better instability looks to be from the Capital Region north and west early in the evening. A slight to low chance of thunderstorms was kept in until midnight. The higher PoPS were maintained from roughly the Capital Region north and west. Lows Sat night will be on the mild side with 50s to around 60F. The latest medium range guidance has the cold front moving through the forecast area in the late morning into the early pm. We kept a slight chance of showers with perhaps a thunderstorm over the higher terrain in the pm especially over the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks. Overall, we will favor a clearing trend for the afternoon and lean towards the latest 12Z ECMWF and WPC guidance. Highs will be close to normal with mid 70s to around 80F in the lower elevations, and mid 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns. Sunday night into Monday...High pressure builds in from the southeast Ontario and the central and eastern Great Lakes Region with west to northwest flow aloft. A cool and pleasant night is expected with lows in the upper 40 to upper 50s. The weak sfc high settles over NY and New England by Memorial Day. H850 temps will be near normal based on the latest GEFS guidance, and will be in the +13C to +15C range with highs in the mid and upper 70s over the valley locations, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. A weak warm front starts to move towards the region late in the day ahead of a quick moving short-wave trough. The latest 12Z EC keeps the sfc ridge in control, while the latest GFS has a few showers over the southern Adirondacks. We placed a slight chance of showers from the Hudson River Valley eastward for the afternoon, and a very low chance to west. This short-wave does not have a lot of low- level moisture to work with, so an increase of clouds may be all that occurs during the day. Monday night into Tuesday...A weak sfc anticyclone may settles back in across the region in the wake of the short-wave trough and weak cold front late Mon night. A low chance of showers was kept in the forecast early in the evening. The question will be how quickly a warm front and strong low pressure system approaches from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. The 12Z GFS is more aggressive than the latest 12Z ECMWF, with some spread in the Ensemble guidance brining showers back into the region by Tue pm. Low confidence forecast here with the better chance of showers from the Capital Region north and east. Lows Monday night will be in the 40s north and west of Albany, and upper 40s to lower 50s south and east. Highs Tuesday will depend on the amount of sunshine and placement of the warm front. We did not stray too far from the superblend with 60s to lower 70s over most the region. Tuesday night into Wednesday...A strong subtropical ridge attempts to build in centered over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Mid and upper level heights try to increase over NY and New England. If the warm front lifts through the entire area quickly, then we could be in a warm and more humid air mass that the latest 12Z ECMWF MOS/MEXMOS, as well as the 12Z GEFS /850 hPa temps +1 to +2 STD DEVs above normal/ are indicating. We kept a slight or low chance of showers in across the region with the highest PoPs over the northern most zones. We went a little higher than the Superblend with upper 70s to around 80F in many of the valley areas, and mid/upper 60s to lower/mid 70s over the higher terrain. Sfc dewpts increase into the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure continues to drift east of NJ tonight. A warm front will be approaching from the lower Great Lakes Region and the Mid Atlantic States overnight into tomorrow morning. The warm front and a mid level disturbance will bring some showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon before the cold front moves quickly through in the early evening. VFR conditions are expected most of the night time period as mid and high clouds continue to increase and lower. A weak disturbance ahead of a warm front may bring some isolated to scattered showers from KALB/KPSF south and west to KPOU between 09Z-14Z. We placed some VCSH groups in with the greatest threat for KPOU and lowered clouds bases to 3.5-5 kft AGL. The low- levels remain very dry, so we did not include MVFR cigs at this time. The warm front struggles to move through the region, and an increased threat of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms is possible by the afternoon. The instability looks limited due to lack of sfc heating with abundant cloud cover. We placed PROB30 groups in from 19Z/THU to 00Z/FRI for all the TAF sites, and we included a thunderstorm threat for KALB/KPOU. Conditions were lowered to MVFR in terms of cigs/vsbys with the threat of showers/thunderstorms. MVFR cigs were include at KPSF during the mid afternoon with the increasing low-level southerly flow. The winds will become light and variable in direction at 3 or 4 kts early this evening, and then calm. They will increase first at KALB from the south at 5-10 kts between 09Z-12Z/THU, and then expect southerly winds of 10-15 kts at all the sites by the late morning through the afternoon. The winds may gust around 20-25 kts at KALB during the afternoon due to the funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. Some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Memorial Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts of 25-35 mph possible Thursday... Clouds will increase tonight with some showers possible late as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region. A frontal system associated with this low will bring humid conditions for Thursday along with some showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions will return for Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system approaching from the west could bring some showers by late Saturday afternoon. RH values will climb to 70-90 percent tonight, then fall to 55-65 percent Thursday afternoon. Winds will become light/variable after sunset, then become south to southwest and increase to 10-20 mph by Thursday afternoon, with some gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Spotty showers will develop after midnight, with a better chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening as a frontal system moves across. && .HYDROLOGY... Some showers will develop late tonight, with showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening as a frontal system moves across. Total rainfall amounts for late tonight through Thursday night are expected to range from one quarter to one half inch for most areas, except up to three quarters of an inch across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks. Rainfall amounts may remain under one quarter of an inch across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. This rainfall should not have significant impacts on rivers/streams. However, brief heavy downpours could lead to temporary ponding of water in poor drainage/urban and low lying areas. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Saturday night with another fast moving frontal system passing through. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1101 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Latest 19z surface analysis shows low over Minnesota and South Dakota border. With tight pressure gradient and winds mixing down aloft out ahead of the low pressure system has produced windy conditions across the area. Latest metars over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa are indicating wind gusting up to 30 to around 40 knots with wind speeds 20 to 25 knots. Tonight into Thursday...upper level/surface low lifts north into southern Ontario Canada and the Upper Great Lakes Region tonight. Then...upper level/surface ridge builds into the Northern Plain states Thursday. Due to daytime loss of heating and gradient slackening over the area this evening...winds will diminish across the area this evening and tonight. The 22.12z GFS/NAM suggest stratocumulus deck of clouds advect into the northern half of the forecast area Thursday morning...with ridging building over the area...these clouds will erode late morning to early afternoon. With partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon across much of the forecast area...high temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 60s to middle 70s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 For Thu night thru Sat night: main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances Thu night/Fri and potential rain amounts. Model runs of 22.12z in good agreement for the shortwave ridging aloft from Thu to be rather transient. This as the mid level low over the Rockies lifts into the northern plains as a strong piece of shortwave energy rotates around its east side Thu night, then toward Man/western Ont Fri. Overall trend is a bit slower than the earlier runs with these features Thu night/Fri. Good agreement for the trough to continue filling/weakening as it passes north of Lk Superior Fri night with rising hgts/westerly flow over the region Sat/Sat night. Thu night thru Sat night fcst confidence is generally good this cycle. Slowing trend of the models Thu night/Fri delays the arrival of the deeper moisture/saturation and lift into the overnight hours of Thu night, with Thu evening continuing to trend dry across most if not all of the fcst area. PW values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches (around 2 std deviations above normal - NAEFS) progged to spread across the area late Thu night/Fri morning as deeper layered forcing/lift and some MUCAPE spreads in as well. Most if not all models spreading some SHRA/TSRA NE into/across the fcst area later Thu night/Fri morning, just differing on the details of where the stronger, more persistent convection may be during the period. Consensus rain chances in the 50- 80% range spreading NE across the fcst area later Thu night/Fri are reasonable. See hydro section below for the rain/QPF details. Models hold the moisture plume over the SE side of the fcst area late Fri/Fri evening. This as hgts aloft would be falling, the sfc front would be approaching and some sfc-700mb thermo-dynamic forcing continues. Models differ on the NW extent of convection Fri afternoon/evening, with GFS further NW than the others. If GFS is more correct, SWODY3 may have to be shifted to the NW as CAPE/shear over the SE side of the fcst area may well support a few strong/ severe storms a few hours either side of 00z Sat. Consensus is for the sfc front to be south of the area Sat/Sat night with quiet westerly flow aloft and weak high pressure building in. GFS again slower with front and brings a weak impulse or 2 thru the flow for Sat and would spread precip chances across the south half of the fcst area. Some small consensus SHRA/TSRA chances across NE IA/far SW WI Sat afternoon/evening OK until the details sort themselves out. Blend of guidance highs closer to normal Fri then even above normal for Sat appear well trended for now. For Sunday thru Wednesday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances Mon thru Wed and potential rain amounts. Medium range model runs of 22.00z/22.12z in reasonable agreement for one shortwave trough to pass north of Lk Superior Sun/Sun night while troughing/a mid level low deepen over the southwest CONUS. Detail difference increase for Mon/Wed but overall trend is for the southwest CONUS troughing to lift NE into/across the central CONUS Mon into Wed, potentially phasing with northern stream energy over the mid/upper MS valley by mid-week. Day 4-7 fcst confidence is generally average this cycle. Area to be between systems Sun, one north and one well west. Sunday trends quiet under westerly flow aloft and weak sfc high pressure drifting across the region. By Mon (Memorial Day) lead energy out of the western CONUS troughing develops low pressure into the central plains with increasing lower level moisture/lift ahead of it quickly spreading NE into the Upper Midwest and SHRA/TSRA chances back in the fcst already by Sun night. This wave/energy to pass Mon, with the main portion of the trough, sfc low and its SHRA/TSRA chances to lift toward/across the region Mon night/Tue. Potential phasing of this troughing and northern stream energy dropping out of CAN would drive a stronger cold front across the region Wed, for continued SHRA/TSRA chances. Blend of the guidance highs near the late May normals for Sun, then below normal with more clouds and the SHRA/TSRA chances Mon-Wed reasonable at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 The main concern with this set of forecasts is whether MVFR ceilings are going to move in late tonight or not. The area of low pressure at the surface has moved into north-central Minnesota and still has some MVFR ceilings around it. However, on the south and west side of the low, some improvement in the ceilings has occurred with primarily VFR conditions now. The RAP through the evening has trended toward the ceilings being VFR for both airports when the clouds come in late tonight and have moved both forecasts that way as well. These clouds are still expected to scatter out by late morning/early afternoon. Still enough gradient to produce some wind gusts to around 20 knots for much of the day Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY...(Thursday night/Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Area shaping up to get another round of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Thu night/Fri. This on top of soils already wet/saturated from the recent rains of Sat night/Sun and Tue night, with potential for this round of rain to produce more runoff and rises on area streams and rivers. Models at odds on where the heaviest rains may fall, some north of I-90, some south, but with PW values progged into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range, potential is certainly there for any TSRA to be efficient rain makers. Will issue an ESF for the more widespread rains and river rise threat late in the week into the weekend. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY....RRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/ Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Broad upper level low is spinning near west central Minnesota as seen on GOES-East Clean IR imagery early this afternoon. The pressure gradient remains tight across the state between the upper low`s associated surface low over northeast South Dakota and high pressure over the Southeast US. This has resulted in sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts topping 40 mph in a few spots over northern Iowa late this morning and early this afternoon. Otherwise, in the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB, scattered cumulus clouds denoted by the cyan/blueish coloring are rotating cyclonically around this low over northwest Iowa. Farther south, thin areas of high clouds denoted by a pinkish color extend from the Four Corners Region into northern Illinois. This lines up well with the jet location per hand analysis of the 12z 250mb upper air map that had a 130 knot jet over southwest Kansas. This jet is over southeast Nebraska and entering southern Iowa early this afternoon per GOES- East derived motion winds between the 250mb and 350mb level. As this jet continues to lift northeastward, Iowa will be under the right entrance region of this jet. With a weak baroclinic boundary over southeast Iowa and warm air advection passing over the area late this afternoon into this evening, this phasing of thermodynamic and kinematic forcing will foster thunderstorms to develop. Morning trends in high resolution guidance suggest that the best chance will be over our far southeast forecast area such as Davis County and less so with Appanoose and Wapello Counties. This is where the best instability will lie and points to the south with 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE and deep layer shear at or above 60 knots from a variety of CAMs such as recent runs of the HRRR, the 12z Texas Tech 42 member WRF ensemble, and the 00z NCAR Ensemble. HRRR updraft helicity tracks have trended out of our forecast area with the 00z NCAR ensemble and the 00z and 12z runs of the HREF having updraft helicity tracks over just far southeast Davis county. Given the instability and shear, if storms do develop and track over our southeast forecast area, they will have the potential of large hail and gusty winds primarily. As a weak ridge axis passes over the the region, this will provide a quiet day across the state. This will be short-lived as the baroclinic zone south of the state begins to lift northward as a warm front late Thursday into Thursday night as a shortwave trough lifts northeast out of the western US trough. As the low level jet strengthens mid-evening and overnight and instability bumps up slightly, will see storms spread northeastward across the state. Moisture will also return back to the state with the warm front lifting into Iowa with the precipitable water values peaking between 1.5 to 2 inches from Thursday night through Friday night. Severe storms in the way of hail and gusty winds Thursday night are possible given the strong deep layer shear. In addition, heavy rainfall is likely with 1 to 2 inches and locally 3 inches of rain possible Thursday night into Friday morning in a narrow corridor. Models at this juncture do not have a good handle on exact location with the NAM/GFS favoring central into northern Iowa, the CMC regional over southern Iowa, and CMC hemispheric and ECMWF over northwest Iowa. While flash flood guidance at 3 hours and 6 hours is 2 and 2.5 inches respectively, isolated flash flood is possible if higher end amounts come quickly. More concerning is that this will further prime corridors for flash flooding in the coming days. Instability and deep layer shear will remain sufficient on Friday into Friday night for storms including strong to severe ones, especially over the southeastern 2/3rds of the states that are in the warm sector. This will also be the location where the heaviest rainfall is expected Friday afternoon and night. The boundary will push through the state on Saturday, but hang up just south of Iowa later this weekend into next week. Instability and deep layer shear will continue to be over the region so there will be chances for thunderstorms in the favored later afternoon and overnight hours through early next week. While locations may change depending on the location of the boundary, southern Iowa at this point looks most favored for thunderstorms chances through early next week. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/ Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Gusty winds to diminish this evening and turn more westerly tonight into Thursday. Winds will pick up a bit Thursday before becoming more northwesterly late in the forecast period. Clouds likely to diminish this evening as well with some mid/high clouds possible Thursday. An shower or storm may impact KOTM this evening. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Beerends
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1158 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 .AVIATION... Right entrance region dynamics will support a zone of frontogenesis that will lift out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and into the Central Great Lakes Thursday morning. Frontogenesis aided by nocturnal low level jet will lead to significant 875-575mb theta e advection directly through Southeast Michigan in the 09-13Z time window. High degree of warm air and moisture advection will support MVFR to potential IFR cig during the precipitation. Given VWP, added a time period of non convective low level wind shear. Hi res consensus continues to highlight a potential for thunderstorm activity, some of which could be robust given impressive forecast of 900-700mb lapse rates. Strong convection is not guaranteed because of very dry air in the 7000-12000ft layer and likely active subsidence at and below 5000 ft agl. Projected warm temperatures off of the deck ensures very stable conditions in the lowest 2000 ft agl. Well mixed west winds are forecasted Thursday afternoon 25 to 30 knots. For DTW...Shower and potential thunderstorm time window at DTW is set for 09-13Z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low to moderate confidence in thunderstorms impacting terminal Thursday morning. * Medium confidence in cigs aob 5000 overnight * Low potential to reach crosswind thresholds Thursday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 DISCUSSION... Mid level drying has been expanding across Se Mi in the wake of the earlier showers. Some afternoon destabilization may occur along the back edge of the mid level moist axis. Recent hi res guidance suggests that any convective initiation off this will be comfortably south and east of the forecast area. Otherwise, the mid level dry air advection this evening will continue to support full to partial clearing. Strengthening low level southwest flow during the night will help drive the surface warm front now lifting toward NW Indiana across Srn Mi. Ongoing low level warm air advection and clearing skies will support late day max temperatures in the 60s, pushing low 70s across the south. Low level warm air advection within the southwest gradient tonight will limit the degree of boundary layer de coupling, leading to a relatively mild night with mins in the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper low and associated sfc low now rotating into Minnesota will traverse Lake Superior late tonight/Thurs morning, driving a cold front into Lower Mi late Thurs morning. A strengthening low level southerly jet (near 60 knots) will transport a plume of mid level moisture and elevated instability into nrn Illinois and Lake Mi/wrn Lower Mi overnight. This is expected to result in convective initiation in these regions. There is actually fairly good agreement that this convection will support development of a meso scale convective vorticity max(s) set to traverse Se Mi early Thurs morning. This will also allow the low level jet to veer toward Se Mi, transporting the mid level theta e plume and instability axis into Se Mi. This will warrant a good chance for showers/thunderstorms in the 09Z to 14Z time frame Thurs. Although any storms early Thurs morning are not expected to be rooted in the boundary layer, steep mid level lapse rates will support fairly good cape density aloft. The RAP actually brings 0-3km MU CAPE up to 1500 j/kg in by 12Z Thurs. So can not rule out the possibility of a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail. The passage of the sfc cold front by early Thurs afternoon will drive the better instability to the east, with slightly colder and drier air advecting in from the west during the afternoon. A deepening daytime mixed layer will offset the cold air advection to a degree, supporting high temps well into the 70s; possibly a few low 80s. 30+ knot winds within the mixed layer will support a rather windy afternoon on Thursday, gusts likely topping 30 MPH at times. A building mid level ridge across the Great Lakes will drive sfc high pressure into Se Mi Thurs night into Friday, supporting cooler and dry conditions. A cold front moving through the Great Lakes on Saturday will lead to a likely chance for showers and storms through much of the day. Ahead of frontal passage which currently looks to occur during the evening, gusty southwest winds will develop given a decent gradient in place between low pressure over Ontario and high pressure over the SE CONUS. A deep mixed layer and 850mb temps around 15C will elevate highs to the upper 70s and lower 80s. There will be a chance of strong storms in the afternoon and evening with just enough shear and instability in place. The front will stall over the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. There will be a chance of showers and storms over the southern counties as a series of weak shortwaves moves over the frontal surface, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected. The better chance for rain across all of SE Michigan comes late Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure system lifts through just northwest of us and pushes the front back northward as a warm front. Another chance for rain on Wednesday as another low lifts through. The early to mid week will see highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. MARINE... Southeasterly to southerly flow to hold through the afternoon and evening as a warm front continues to push across the Great Lakes. Wind direction to veer overnight through Thursday afternoon, turning southerly and eventually southwesterly as strong low-level winds and diurnal mixing acts to bring breezy conditions to the marine areas. As a result, a series of small craft advisories will be in effect for tonight and tomorrow. Small craft advisories for outer Saginaw Bay and the northern Thumb start tonight, tied to the southeasterly flow which will act to increase wave heights towards the three foot mark. The advisory is then expanded for all of the Saginaw Bay and all of the Lake Huron shoreline as the increased mixing depths allow wind gusts up to 25-30 knots to persist late Thursday morning into the evening, the strongest of which will be seen over the Saginaw Bay. In addition to the small craft advisories, showers and thunderstorms tied to the cold front are expected overnight into daybreak, which has the potential to produce gusty winds. High pressure will then expand across the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday which will relax wind speeds and will allow the advisories to drop-off. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ422-442- 443. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SC/TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
934 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Area of storms continuing to develop and move into Central IL mostly NW of the IL River valley this evening. Ongoing potential severe weather the main concern, and only minor updates to the forecast are required at this point. To the severe threat, an area of instability out ahead of the advancing storms providing a little bit of fuel...when able to lift through the mixed layer cap. Plenty of shear in place, bulk shear in the 50-60kts, to assist in the development and counter any suppression of the storm genesis. Threat will remain in place for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes through the evening in the watch area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Although not much evidence in wind field, nice moisture discontinuity evident across northwest Missouri into western Wisconsin with dew points generally in the 50s and temps in the 70s to the southeast and 40s to near 50 dewpoints and temps in the 50s and 60s northwest. This boundary will shift southeast in response to surface low over southwest Minnesota pulling quickly out to the northeast. As the boundary moves southeast it will encounter an increasing unstable environment. One missing factor that is currently not evident is convergence along the discontinuity. 12z models suggest a low-level jet will develop this evening and the interaction of the jet with the boundary will be sufficient to focus moisture and enable the development of convection which will tap into the instability. The LLJ will also provide a good source of shear producing effective SRH around 300 m2/s2 this evening. The intensity of the convection and the speed at which the boundary can move southeast overnight depends on the strength and organization of the cold pool. Initial threat this evening to the northwest of the Illinois River will likely be large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. As the system becomes better organized the main threat of straight-line damaging winds will become the primary threat. Late tonight the instability should diminish and the storms should weaken. Models do differ on the level of organization and therefore how far the line gets overnight. This will have a bearing on whether any residual threat remains for Thursday. If the front stalls as expected in the southeast forecast area some threat of storms refiring in the afternoon south of I-70 will be possible. If a cold pool doesn`t push the storms southeast, development on Thursday could be further north across the heart of the forecast area. Location of the boundary will also have implications as to the temperatures tomorrow. May be a significant gradient between upper 70s north to approaching 90 in the southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Overall pattern changes little into next week with occasional waves riding along the downstream side of the long-wave trough over the Great Basin and southwest U.S. Models in decent agreement with the general pattern. With the boundary oscillating across the area in response to the waves. Blend of medium-range models keep at least a chance of rain in some part of the forecast area through the period. WPC 7-day QPF suggests highest rain threat will be in the Illinois Valley where 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible between now and mid-week next week. With split flow and northern stream remaining mostly north of the Canadian border, temps should be above normal for the end of May. There is some indication that phasing may be possible by the end of the period and some cooler air may advect into Illinois, but the solution envelope is all over the place as evidenced by the latest 12z GEFS suite showing anything from mid-80s to mid-60s next Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Scattered thunderstorms have developed from east of KMLI southwestward to near KMCI early this evening. Models have been consistently showing the cells forming into a line this evening, then shifting toward the I-55 corridor by midnight. Based on radar trends and latest HRRR forecast, have included TEMPO group for thunder at KPIA between 03z and 06z...and further southeast at KDEC/KCMI between 07z and 09z. Once the convection exits, a period of showers will persist for a couple of hours before the precip comes to an end from northwest to southeast overnight. Winds will initially be S/SW with gusts of 20-25kt early this evening, then will veer to the W by Thursday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Barker LONG TERM...Barker AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
711 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 711 PM CDT A few showers and storms developed a bit earlier across portions of northeastern Missouri, but have struggled to maintain intensity as they progressed into northern Illinois, likely as they outran a narrow plume of increased low-mid level moisture. With limited instability present across our region, think the severe threat in the immediate term (over the next hour or two) appears fairly low although a stronger storms will be possible across our northwest. However, strong flow in the 850-700 mb layer will continue to transport a higher theta-e airmass into the region over the next several hours along with an associated uptick in elevated instability. Based on the most recent guidance, it appears as if the most favorable axis of moisture and instability will develop essentially across the southeastern half of the CWA (perhaps from a La Salle to Midway line). Farther to the north and west of this line, increased westerly flow aloft should drive a drier airmass eastward, reducing the amount of instability available to support more robust thunderstorm development. The kinematic environment will be favorable for severe storms, with deep layer shear values pushing 50-55 kts at times. Recent point soundings reveal a lingering layer of warm air in the mid- levels centered around 500 mb, which will limit the overall amount of instability this evening, but steep lapse rates do exist in narrow layers under 500 mb which, when combined with the aforementioned robust deep layer shear, will support rotating thunderstorms with a potential for large hail (quarter to golf ball sized based on SHIP parameters). In addition, recent CAM guidance suggests a propensity for storms to quickly grow upscale into a surging MCS later tonight, which could deliver an increasing threat for strong to locally damaging wind gusts potentially for locales along and east of I-55 later tonight. Current thinking is the main window for severe weather across our region will be during the 9 PM to 3 AM timeframe or so. While plenty of clockwise curvature is noted in regional hodographs this evening, we believe the tornado threat will remain tempered somewhat by a lack of truly surface-based instability as the low-levels begin to decouple with the loss of daytime heating. That said, if a surging line of storms can get going, any segments that orient in a more NW to SE manner would have access to ample low-level shear for a spin-up QLCS tornado, once again mainly for locales east and south of I-55. Finally, while a threat for heavy rainfall exists, the push of westerly momentum aloft should keep things moving along tonight-- especially if a MCS materializes as many of the CAMs indicate. As a result, while locally heavy rainfall will be possible but this threat should remain fairly localized and there are no plans to hoist a Flash Flood Watch at this point. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... 206 PM CDT Through tonight... Massive long wave trough covering about the western 2/3rd of the U.S. has multiple smaller scale circulation pivoting within the broad upper trough. Pronounced upper low evident on water vapor imagery is beginning to shear out over the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Plains early this afternoon. Water vapor imagery does show jet streak nosing east from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley early this afternoon, which is resulting in strong kinematic fields for mid-late May over the region. At the surface, warm and moist air is surging north on gusty southerly winds across the region with a cold front laid out from Iowa south to southeast Kansas. On GOES-16 differential water vapor imagery, there does appear to be a subtle shortwave trough on the southern periphery of this jet. Numerical guidance seems to be keying in on this relatively subtle looking disturbance as the impetus for widespread convective development, initially over Ozarks, then continuing to develop northeastward ahead of the cold front into northern and central IL this evening. Convective allowing models are forecasting a fairly high coverage of storms, however, this activity is progged to be well ahead of the front, so given the somewhat nebulous forcing could see more discrete or semi-discrete convection initially before activity likely begins to congeal into a more linear feature late this evening into the overnight hours. There could be a short window early in the event where we could see a supercellular tornado threat in our southwest CWA before boundary layer cooling leads to convection becoming rooted above the boundary layer. However, the greater threat will likely be from large hail and damaging winds. Given the very strong shear profiles (0-6k bulk shear values 50-60kt) and MUCAPES progged to increase to over 2000 j/Kg, am quite concerned with the large hail and damaging wind threat tonight. While storm motion tonight should be such that there doesn`t look to be a threat for training cells, RAP and NAM forecast PWATS approaching the 99th percentile for mid-late May with values progged to approach 2". In addition, high freezing levels (>13kft) should allow for deep warm rain processes, meaning storms tonight could be very efficient rain producers. One and three hour flash flood guidance is generally between and inch to an inch and half, which storms tonight potentially reaching those values. Considered a flash flood watch, particularly for southern and eastern portions of the area, but given the threat for training not looking particularly high, opted to hold off for now. Thinking any flash flood threat tonight will be on the lower end of the spectrum and fairly localized, with greater chance of urban & small stream flood advisory type minor flooding. Convection should begin to weaker overnight as low level jet veers and atmosphere slowly stabilizes, with storms likely moving out toward or just past 12z Thursday morning. - Izzi && .LONG TERM... 250 PM CDT Thursday through Tuesday... The theme of the extended will be several days of more spring/early summer-like temperatures, occasional periods of showers or storms (though not a total wash out), then a return to seasonal or slightly cooler conditions to wrap up the holiday weekend. We should be able to wring out a pretty nice day on Thursday. Most of the convective activity will be finished by daybreak tomorrow, possibly a few lingering showers east of the Chicago area. In spite of having a frontal boundary clip the area, fairly warm airmass will remain in place across the region and we should have plenty of sunshine. Therefore expect another warm day with readings in the lower to mid 70s north to low 80s north. An upper ridge will slide overhead tomorrow night, and this will shift surface high pressure off to our east. The effective front will lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Friday. This will bring convective chances back to the lower Great Lakes. The stronger low level jet will focus along the Mississippi Valley and points east, but the warm front will not completely clear the area, some of this activity will sneak into our area, especially for areas north and west. With the frontal position fairly close by, there could be at least showers with this initial wave Friday morning. The ridge will flatten Friday night into Saturday and place the effective front, and northern periphery of the ridge, in a more precarious position for increased shower and thunderstorm concerns. While it does not appear it will be raining all the time, those with outdoor plans should keep an eye of the weather as the airmass will be fairly moist (PWATs above 1.5" at times) and subtle waves can easily produce heavy rainfall and lightning and may be tough to time, through most of the holiday weekend. The first period of concern will come late Friday into Saturday where severe storms may be possible upstream toward the Mississippi River, but could still pose some risk in our area Friday night. Corfidi vectors suggest some training storms in a very high PWAT airmass again of 2" or more, or near highest values for late May, will pose a heavy rainfall/flooding threat before the forcing weakens. After this, model placement of the effective front is a bit more nebulous, but this will play a significant role in precip chances through the weekend. It will also remain mild through Saturday, though Sunday model guidance does shove the front a bit farther south leading to a likely cooler day Sunday with more of a northerly wind, and cooler onshore flow at the lakefront also. Challenging to get into specifics, but this same theme of seasonal temperatures and chances of storms still hold for Memorial Day and even into mid week. KMD && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Main concern is thunderstorms this evening/tonight, which will affect all the terminals eventually. South-southwest winds are still gusting to around 30 kt approaching 00z, but gust magnitude should come down with sunset. Regarding TSRA trends, SHRA and isolated TSRA over northwest IL should affect RFD over the next few hours. Coverage of actual lightning activity is quite low right now, so held with a VCTS and temporary SHRA at RFD for the first couple hours of the TAF. Instability is expected to increase with time this evening, with a corresponding increase in coverage of TSRA, including the potential for strong to severe storms. Did not make any changes to timing for the Chicago area terminals, with best window appearing to be between 05z and 09z, latest at GYY. Latest thinking is that best chance for severe criteria storms capable of large hail and/or damaging winds is approximately south of a VYS to MDW line. The risk is certainly not zero north of that line, with near severe storms still possible. Maintained mention of gusty southwest winds in the TEMPO TSRA and if trends suggest likelihood of higher speeds than that at any of the sites, will update as needed. After the TSRA exit east later tonight, cold front will approach the area. Can`t rule out a small window of MVFR CIGs in the early morning, but it would be brief if it occurs, with VFR the rest of this 24-30 hour TAF cycle. Cold front will move across the area by mid to late morning Thursday, shifting winds to west and then west- northwest with time. Soundings support gusts into the 20-25 kt range during daytime hours, and possibly briefly higher at times. On Thursday evening, winds will shift to northeast in response to low pressure lifting north over the Plains and a backdoor front. Will have to monitor for any earlier timing of this northeast wind shift. After the end of the ORD/MDW 30-hour TAFs, there may be low clouds and/or FG/BR drifting in off Lake Michigan. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 9 PM Wednesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
840 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 A large mesoscale convective system is organizing over western and northern Missouri. Once this system acquires an organized cold pool as it moves into central and northern Illinois, there will be at least a small southward component of motion. Corfidi vectors are directed almost due southeast after midnight, however speeds become less than 10 knots by morning. The hrrr model brings the leading edge of the mcs nearly to Interstate 64 by morning, with isolated activity developing along the Ohio River Valley. Given the large reservoir of very moist and unstable air feeding northward into these storms on a 30 to 40 knot flow at 850 mb, the convective system should remain fully intact through the early morning hours. The forecast will maintain chance pops after midnight for much of southern IL and sw Indiana, with slight chances down to the Ohio Valley and parts of se Missouri. Some strong or even possibly severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out in association with the leading edge of the convective outflow. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Convection across the KHOP area will continue to shift east late this afternoon. Upper air model data indicates subsidence across the rest of the area, that should generally suppress any additional development into this evening. Meanwhile strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected to our west and north into tonight. Later in the night, remnant activity could make its way into the northern 1/2 of our area as it weakens. We will have some low PoPs in to account for this. In whatever form this takes on, any boundaries left over into Thursday could serve as a focal point for convection. Again, best chances seems to be central and northern sections, north of the Ohio, though isolated activity cannot be ruled out any location. A few strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out. But this is highly conditional on development. The NAM shows little if any activity, while other CAM`s models and the GFS are more bullish on convection. For now, we do not have any PoPs lingering into the evening. But the mid shift might want to consider lingering a chance longer as the latest data is trending that direction. Thursday night through Friday night should be mainly free of convection. With the area well in the warm sector, only convection will have a potential impact on temps in the short term. Otherwise it will be quite warm and muggy, more typical of mid July norms vs. what we should see approaching the Memorial Day Weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 The forecast confidence associated with this forecast package is higher than average(60-65%), despite the complex interplay among the 1)multi-low western U.S. trough and timing of systems from the eastern Pacific injecting into the trough, 2) the closed lows and transformation of systems across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, and 3) the broad southeast U.S. ridge. The WFO PAH remains along the gradient between the thermal/pressure ridge to the southeast and the baroclinic zone to the north and northwest. The ECMWF since earlier this week has been keeping the ridges influence more dominant over the WFO PAH forecast area versus other numerical models in recent days. However, latest runs tend to support a dryer (PoP-wise) solutions for most of the WFO PAH forecast area with the wettest time periods Sunday and then again late Tuesday night and Wednesday. With most of the precipitation expected to fire as MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) along a stationary front (embedded in a narrow baroclinic zone along the periphery of the southeast U.S. ridge ("ring of fire") to the north and western quadrants outside the WFO PAH forecast area. Anticipate any convection that moves into the WFO PAH forecast area will be along the edges of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (along the I-64 corridor) from decaying MCS and outflow dominated thunderstorm clusters that move tangential from the mean propagation pathways of the MCS`s. The time of day, as well as cloud cover, differential heating, and storm scale thermal/vorticity eddies aloft will determine the southward extent of convection into the WFO PAH forecast area. On days where the southeast U.S. retrogrades northwest in response to the movement of the western trough and Great Lakes lows, some showers and thunderstorms may track southeast over parts of southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky. For Memorial Day weekend there will be higher than normal chances for southern counties of the WFO PAH forecast area (especially those counties along the TN/AR/MO/KY borders to remain drier versus further north. Temperatures will remain normal through the extended period. Heat indexes during the warmest time period should not rise much above the lower 90s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Southerly surface winds less than 12 knots overnight are forecast to shift to a more southwesterly direction on Thu, and possibly gust above 20 knots in the early afternoon. Meanwhile, cigs/vsbys are forecast to remain VFR through the 24 hour TAF period, although there is a small possibility of vsby restrictions with showers or thunderstorms that may creep into the i-64 corridor overnight as part of a decaying mesoscale convective system. VCSH was mentioned at KMVN for now. Much like Wed, there should be a scattered to broken cumulus deck during the daylight hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...MY AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
610 PM MST Wed May 22 2019 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .UPDATE...Fire Weather Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Another unusually cool weather disturbance will pass through the region today and Thursday resulting in temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees below normal along with light showers affecting portions of southern California and Arizona. Winds will also continue to be breezy to windy at times, especially near higher terrain features. Temperatures will rapidly warm into the coming weekend, though readings will still remain slightly below seasonal normals. Yet another weather system will move into the area early next week providing the next bout of cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... A blocked hemispheric flow pattern will persist into early next week ensuring deep negative height anomalies and unsettled weather remain entrenched over the western Conus through at least the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Even beyond the weekend, some measure of troughing may linger over the region into late next week further extending the string of cool weather. While scattered showers will be common over parts of the forecast area later today into tonight, the anomalously cool weather will be one of the more obvious impacts with afternoon highs today 20F below normal and 15F below normal on Thursday. Outside of the temperature anomalies, winds will be the other primary impact from this stalled pattern. With one shortwave lifting through the Central Plains and another diving south along the Sierra ridge, a pronounced quasi-zonal jet core has settled across the Southwest. Wind advisories continue over portions of SE California into this evening, focused across the western half of Imperial County. Elsewhere, winds today will be markedly lighter then yesterday, but still quite breezy. Latest high-res HRRR and NAM 3km model output continues to show a vorticity lobe moving into the region ahead of the main upper low, as it moves across SE CA into SW AZ. The combination of lift ahead of the vort lobe, very cold air aloft (500mb temps in the -20C to - 23C range, which is very close to record low values for this time of year), and decent moisture (PWAT`S in the 0.50 to 0.5 inch range) is expected to produce some light shower activity across northern Riverside county in SE CA this afternoon/evening and across south- central AZ later this evening/overnight. A few thunderstorms are possible as mid-level lapse rates steepen, but TS development will likely be limited by the fact that the coldest air aloft will lag behind the area of best lift/moisture. Most locations that do receive rain will only see very light amounts (less than 0.10 inch), but areas that do get TS could see a bit more. Any thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally gusty winds as well. The deep closed low will quickly shift north-northeastward on Thursday leaving behind a very pleasant air mass. The low center is forecast to be over northern Utah by Thursday afternoon, but the trough axis will become stretched well to the southwest keeping upper level heights over the Desert Southwest well below climatological normals. Although the trough axis will persist through Friday, heights aloft will gradually rise allowing decent warming. Highs by Friday will warm back into the upper 80s, before topping out in the lower 90s on Saturday. The next deep trough is shown diving down the West Coast Saturday into Sunday before taking an eastward turn through the Desert Southwest late Sunday into Monday. This will bring another cool down for our area into early next week, but little if any chance of rainfall. Thereafter, the synoptic pattern looks to become a bit more normalized allowing a gradual increase in temperatures through next week. By late next week, temperatures look to be back to around seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0100 UTC. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Cloud coverage has increased, with BKN-OVC around 8-9 kft, and wind gusts have subsided in response. Though, W/SW winds aob 10 kts will continue through most of the night. Scattered showers are expected to spread east into Maricopa county this evening, reaching the metro area after 3Z-4Z. Evaporative cooling in the vicinity of showers should lower CIGs to around 6 kft with FEW possible to 5 kft. The showers may also lead to some gusts up to 20 kts. An isolated storm with gustier winds and a few flashes of lightning cannot be ruled out between 8Z- 12Z. As showers exit after 11Z- 12Z, winds may see a brief shift to the E or SE and then return to the SW by late Thursday morning, with speeds still aob 10 kts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: A weather system pivoting through the Desert SW will keep westerly winds breezy at KIPL, with gusts up to 30 kts for the next few hours before dropping off and becoming more isolated around 20-25 kts through tonight. Winds will be lighter at KBLH, around 12 kts or less sustained. Vicinity showers to KBLH are expected through 5Z, with a few flashes of lightning possible, before shifting off to the east. Clouds scatter through early Thursday morning and winds will be lighter Thursday at both terminals, sustained around 10-14 kts with gusts up to 20-24 kts in the afternoon. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will warm closer to normal over the weekend before another weather disturbance moves across the districts during the first half of next week providing another period of cooler, unsettled weather. Winds will be fairly typical early in the weekend with typical upslope gustiness while locally windy conditions develop during the latter half of the holiday weekend. Wetting rains are very unlikely, though a scattered passing light shower is possible late in the weekend. Afternoon humidity levels in a 10-20% range early in the weekend will increase towards a 15-25% level later in the weekend with the cooler airmass while overnight recovery will be fair to good. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will then return during the middle part of next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard operating procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ562-566. Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563>565-567. && $$ DISCUSSION...MO/Kuhlman/Percha AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...MO/Percha