Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/20/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
815 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward along the northern Gulf Coast through this week. A diffuse front will sink southward and be close to the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. The ridging will keep moisture limited and bring above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Dry and warm mid-levels will prevent showers through the near term. A 25 kt low level jet and a few convective debris clouds from upstream should keep overnight temperatures slightly warmer than would otherwise be. Expect lows generally in the mid 60s. Fog is unlikely due to the low level jet but a few low clouds may form overnight, lingering into the early morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface High pressure will ridge from the Atlantic westward along the northern Gulf Coast. There will be lee-side troughing in the forecast area. The cold front sinking southward and toward the forecast area is forecast to become diffuse under the upper ridging. Convergence into the surface trough and seabreeze front plus a little upper support with a mid-level shortwave trough brushing the northern periphery of the upper ridge will be the main support for thunderstorms mainly late Monday afternoon and evening. Still, with general upper ridging and little moisture we believe thunderstorm coverage will be low. The ARW along with the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS indicate very little coverage. We maintained the forecast of just slight chance pops. Instability associated with intense heating and dry air in the middle levels aiding downdrafts indicates a potential for strong wind with any thunderstorms. The temperature guidance was close with continued hot conditions. Expect highs in the lower and middle 90s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main concern is hot conditions during the medium-range period. The models indicate general high pressure at the surface with some troughing, mainly thermal. The models have been consistent with strong upper ridging. The pattern indicates hot conditions with thunderstorms mainly suppressed. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 with pops less than 20 percent. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level ridge axis will continue to slowly shift east of the area overnight while at the surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to circulate boundary layer moisture into the region. Models are forecasting another low level jet (20-25 knots) although not quite as strong as last night which should help inhibit fog formation. Some lingering diurnal cumulus clouds will persist early but should diminish with only some passing high cirrus expected overnight through around 08z. Bufkit time heights and HRRR show abundant low level moisture and forecast stratus developing after 08z with support from the SREF, although the MOS guidance is not indicating any restrictions. Will introduce prevailing MVFR cigs at CAE/CUB/OGB at 08z with tempo IFR cigs 09z-13z. Slightly lower confidence in restrictions at AGS/DNL so will keep the tempo group for MVFR cigs there 09z-13z. An approaching weak front, along with some increase in atmospheric moisture, may provide some convective coverage Monday afternoon and evening, mainly across northern areas with the front, and near southern areas along a sea breeze boundary after 18Z. However, coverage is expected to be isolated and will not be included in this forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some late night/early morning fog/stratus potential, along with isolated diurnal thunderstorms possible, through the period. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 .UPDATE... I have went ahead and removed late afternoon-early evening slight chances of storms across Central Texas. GOES visible satellite has shown cumulus field struggling to get going along and south of our stalled surface front. A couple of factors are likely playing into this: 1. Subsidence behind yesterdays storms and disturbance. 2. LAPS and RAP soundings showing an EML(likely from the aforementioned residual subsidence) strengthening between 700mb-800mb. Also, southwest flow aloft is amplifying in advance of a the next upper system dropping south across CA/NV. and finally... 3. Dry-air entrainment -- (moisture is minuscule thin both above and below the EML). Otherwise, the front should lift back northward toward the Red River Valley after midnight and through daybreak Monday in response to increasing 925mb-850mb to between 20-30 knots, especially west of I-35. As such, patchy fog/drizzle remains possible across Central Texas overnight with the increasing low level warm advection. 05/ && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 337 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/ /Tonight/ There will be a low risk for showers and an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon mainly across the Brazos Valley. While the CU field looks a little less than impressive. This may be in response to to lingering subsidence. However...the instability---thanks to 90 degree temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s---remains quite robust at this hour. There will still remain a risk for convective initiation through the late afternoon to early evening hours southeast of a Temple to Mexia to Palestine line. A strong or severe storm capable of strong to possibly damaging winds will remain possible if a storm can mature. The aformentioned front should lift northward tonight in response to a deepening surface low to the northwest. Moisture will slosh northward with the aid of southerly winds. The subsequent WAA/isentropic upglide could result in some sprinkles or light rain showers, but widespread measurable rain appears unlikely. There will be a risk for some patchy drizzle or perhaps light fog...especially south of I-20. At this time, winds aloft (around 925mb) may be too strong to preclude a more appreciable fog episode across the region. Should these winds aloft underachieve, then increasing low level moisture coupled with recent rainfall could set the stage for a hybrid advection/radiation fog scenario across the area. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 337 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/ /Monday through Sunday/ A low pressure system will gather strength across the western U.S. on Monday, resulting in a warm, humid and breezy day. Increasing southerly surface winds will lift the cold front north of the Red River quickly Monday morning while southwesterly flow aloft draws warm air off of the Mexican Plateau, reinforcing the cap. Therefore, storms are not expected for most areas during the day Monday, but a few brief storms may develop on the retreating front across the northwest zones in the morning along with a few warm air advection sprinkles farther south. Isolated to scattered storms are possible across the northwest zones during the afternoon/early evening on outflows from West Texas/Southwestern Oklahoma storms, but the cap may hold until stronger forcing arrives. Additional storms are expected to develop across the Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin Monday evening as the powerful upper low pivots northeast towards the Central High Plains. The storms should organize into a linear complex as large scale lift, mid level instability and deep layer shear increase. The line of storms will enter into western North Texas late in the evening and spread eastward through the night/Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but some storms may contain hail. An overall decrease in storm strength is anticipated as the line moves east of the I-35 corridor from mid morning through early afternoon Tuesday. However, storm intensification is likely during the heat of the afternoon, but this should occur east of the forecast area. We will have to watch the speed of the line closely since a slower progression would result in a better chance for strong to severe storms across the eastern zones Tuesday afternoon. We were considering a Flash Flood Watch for portion of the area for Monday night/Tuesday since most areas received appreciable rainfall yesterday. However, moisture should remain confined below 850 mb with this system and the progressive nature of the anticipated line should keep rainfall totals generally less than an inch. If future guidance suggests slightly deeper moisture or slower speed of the storms, later shifts may need to issue a Flash Flood Watch. Rain/storm chances will end Tuesday night once the lead upper low moves toward the Northern Plains and an amplified ridge begins to nudge in from the east. Although the upper ridge axis should remain east of the region, its presence should keep North and Central Texas warm and generally rain free the second half of the week through the weekend. It will remain humid, however, with low pressure in the west keeping a constant influx of Gulf moisture. It does look like storms will remain a possibility across West Texas and western Oklahoma the second half of the week as a series of weak disturbances move through southwest flow aloft. These storms may send some outflows toward the northwest zones during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, we will maintain some low PoPs in that area generally Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures next week will be near or above seasonal normals with highs generally in the middle and upper 80s and lows ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 116 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/ /18 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Gradual wind shift and ceiling trends. VFR currently prevails at all TAFs this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may develop to the south and east of ACT where activity should remain late this afternoon and into the evening. The cold front will stall and lift northward---as a warm front---through the overnight hours. East winds will accompany the warm frontal passage along with the potential for MVFR and occasional IFR cigs starting just after midnight and continuing through the Monday morning push. There is a chance for BR or even FG...but breezy winds should preclude this threat. Trends will need to be monitored, however, as weaker low level winds could result in IFR or LIFR vsby. Confidence in MVFR cigs occurring at at all terminals is high...with medium confidence in IFR cigs. There does appear to be weak ascent associated with the front, so I cannot rule out a period or two of showers...but this potential looks greatest to the west of I-35. Otherwise, increasing southerly flow is anticipated from mid-morning Monday through Monday evening as surface winds crank to near 20 knots. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 86 70 81 67 / 5 10 40 70 10 Waco 72 88 72 83 68 / 10 10 30 60 10 Paris 66 84 70 78 64 / 0 10 30 60 10 Denton 68 86 67 79 64 / 5 20 40 70 10 McKinney 67 85 69 79 64 / 5 20 30 70 10 Dallas 72 87 71 81 68 / 5 10 30 70 10 Terrell 70 87 71 79 66 / 5 10 30 60 10 Corsicana 73 88 71 80 69 / 10 10 30 60 10 Temple 73 88 72 82 68 / 10 10 30 60 10 Mineral Wells 67 86 65 81 62 / 10 20 60 50 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1201 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 A cold front will move through central Indiana tonight. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front. Much cooler weather moves in for the start of the work week. A front will meander across the area mid to late week, bringing chances for rain at times mid-week into next weekend. Temperatures will rebound to above normal mid-week and then remain there. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Early this afternoon a dry slot was moving into central Indiana, ending the widespread rainfall. However, a line of storms had developed in central Illinois ahead of a cold front. The line of storms will move across central Indiana during the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening hours before 00Z. Will handle with a pre-first period in the text products to cover this. Severe storms remain possible with building instability and some decent shear, but at the moment am not expecting widespread severe weather. HRRR and some other models indicate still some shower or thunderstorm potential with the front itself as it moves across the area after 00Z. Will have some low PoPs this evening. Colder air will move in overnight, and some stratocumulus will accompany it. Will keep skies partly cloudy. The model blend looks reasonable for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The colder air and stratocumulus will stick around on Monday, keeping skies partly cloudy and high temperatures only in the 60s most areas. Dry and cool conditions will continue into Tuesday with some upper ridging briefly working into the area. A large upper system across the western part of the country will send some energy just to the northwest of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will also bring a warm front through the area. Forcing isn`t that impressive with the strongest forcing remaining out of central Indiana. Will go with mainly chance category PoPs. The warm front will allow temperatures to return into the 80s for highs on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Thursday/... Issued at 312 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Accepted the initialization. An upper level high will sit over the deep south for much of long term range. Models are showing a couple of short waves that may affect the area during that time so there are a couple chances for rain. The best chance looks to be Memorial Day weekend as models are in agreement that there will be precipitation but exact timing and location are still to be seen. Temperatures will be above normal as highs are anticipated to be in the 80s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/06Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 VFR will be the predominant flight category for the TAF period, but will not rule out some MVFR stratocu from Mon 14-16Z. Current southwest winds will continue to veer to the northwest today and will generally be in the 5 to 11 kt range with some occasional gusts to 22 kts at times in the wake of cold front. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....KH AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
858 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 856 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 A cold front will continue to work across the area tonight, bringing rain chances to an end and also sending overnight lows into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. It will be notably cooler on Monday with highs shy of 60 degrees. Looking ahead, the next opportunity for rain is Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Convective event quickly winding down with most of the watch cancelled except far southern Michigan which will either be cancelled or allowed to expire on time at 10 pm EDT. Grids have been cleaned up to remove pops as cold front continues to sweep across the area. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 First round of convection has moved over the area and is starting to move off to the east with time. While there has been a few embedded enhanced echos the main impacts have been periods of heavy rain and a few wind gusts into the 40mph range. Weak updraft strength with this first round have been easily sheared apart. Clearing line of clouds is quickly encroaching into the far western counties. This should result in a quick jump in temps of 3-5 degrees. Looking across eastern IL, dewpoints have remained in the mid-60s as temperatures have risen into the mid-70s. Further south and west into southern IL, lower dewpoints in the upper 50s have been able to mix to the surface. Ongoing convection across southeastern IL developed on the intersection of these dewpoints. This development also correlate with the left exit region of a jet rounding the base of the upper trough. Trajectory of this jet region would bring it across our western/central zones over the next few hours. This, coupled with any destabilization from the clearing line, will help to support renewed/reinvigorate convection. Radar VAD profiles across IL show mostly unidirectional flow within this area of developing/ongoing convection. Will have to watch influence of the clearing line as the KIWX VAD profile does show some veering in the lowest 1000m. If this veering persists despite mixing, then a non-zero chance for a tornado would exist. Greater confidence is with a quick jump in temperatures, low level mixing, and VAD winds quickly becoming unidirectional. Primary hazard with storms remains damaging wind. As mentioned above, strongly sheared storms are unlikely to result in much of a large hail risk. Front starts to push into the area late this afternoon/early evening. There is a window where the lifting jet exit region and the front overlap to strengthen convection. The best area for this overlapping would be along and north of I-80. This is well reflected in the HRRR with a progressive line of convection. This line moves across the northern zones before exiting around 03Z. && .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Focus of the forecast is on the near term, but the general theme for the remainder of the forecast remains unchanged. Dry and cool conditions Monday into Tuesday, next chance for precipitation Tuesday night/Wednesday, warmer Thurs and Friday. Location of the building sub-tropical high over the southeastern US will dictate if Thurs/Fri have chances for precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Main line of storms just passing through FWA at the onset of the TAF period with clearing skies to the west behind it. Shortwave moving across Lake Michigan, hence leaving a tempo tsra at SBN. VFR overnight before dropping down to MVFR by morning as front passes through the region. Improving conditions by the afternoon tomorrow. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher SYNOPSIS...Brown/Fisher SHORT TERM...CM LONG TERM...CM AVIATION...Heidelberger Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
944 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .Forecast Update... Issued at 935 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Surface cold front currently lies from SW IN to SE MO and will move to SE across our forecast area overnight. To this point, showers and storms have been most prevalent and strongest over parts of central IN, with limited activity to our west. Latest radar now shows showers and isolated thunder have developed farther to the SW along the convective axis into SW IN, along and just ahead of the front. The latest couple runs of the hi-res HRRR model suggest this narrow axis of showers will continue to progress into and across our area into the overnight hours, with even some new development possible farther south along the line in central KY. Mesoscale analysis shows instability just starting to diminish a tad as slow boundary layer cooling will reduce low-level lapse rates. Would expect mainly showers overnight (with brief downpours possible) and only isolated thunder. Expect some clearing behind this line and the surface cold front with lows Monday morning in the mid-upper 50s in south-central IN to the lower 60s in our eastern counties of central KY. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Strong Storms Still Possible Into This Evening... Upper-level impulse ejecting into the Great Lakes ahead of a complex cyclone over the Upper Midwest, with a sfc cold front now bisecting Illinois just west of the Interstate 57 corridor. Main challenge will be the timing and impact of any convection, and that is made even more difficult by the showers that have affected west-central Kentucky and southern Indiana today, at least temporarily limiting instability. Even the hi-res models are struggling to initialize ongoing convection, so confidence in the details of this forecast is low. We are fairly confident that there will be multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms especially during the early evening hours as the front progresses eastward. If the clearing that has taken place over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky can expand eastward in time, that could generate at least some marginal instability, and open the door for a damaging wind threat. Believe the best opportunity for strong/severe storms will be in west-central Indiana and could clip a few of our Indiana counties. The main thunderstorm hazard will be damaging winds. As the front pushes eastward, the window of opportunity for strong or severe storms will close fairly quickly around or just after sunset with the loss of heating. Any storms that are ongoing should weaken and eventually dissipate, so POPs will be lower south and east of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. A cooler and drier air mass will come in behind the front, with pleasant late spring weather in store late tonight through Monday. Expect plenty of sunshine and temps near normal for mid/late May. .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Monday night - Sunday High pressure has parked over the southeastern United States and is securely in place over the CWA with an upper ridge axis sitting west of the CWA through western Kentucky. Skies remain mostly clear with temperatures ranging from the low 70s in Indiana to the low 80s closer to Tennessee. On Tuesday into Tuesday night, the ridge inches east as a cold front follows behind the ridge towards the CWA. The cold front quickly bows from Texas through the Hoosier state with the front setting up along the Ohio River on Wednesday, but at this time the moisture feed to the front dries and precipitation along the front fades. Southern Indiana could see some isolated precipitation that could extend into central Kentucky, but believe this will trend drier in future model runs/forecasts. However, the front will likely bring clouds overhead to most except possibly the Lake Cumberland area. This won`t limit temperatures as strong warm advection from a stiff south wind will drive temperatures to the upper 80s. The parked high over the Southeast continues to shield moisture from getting across the Ohio River into the CWA. Minor disturbances will continue to ride the flow around the north side of the high. Thursday could bring our most northern areas in southern Indiana some minor precipitation. A better chance of rain exists on Saturday according to GFS, but the Euro keeps us much drier. Believing the models have been more saturated than reality lately. Believe drier conditions are more likely through the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected from Wednesday through Sunday. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 The chance for showers/storms near the TAF sites will continue through late evening. HNB/BWG have the best chance at VCTS. Think that convection should weaken as it approaches SDF so went with VCSH. LEX is already experiencing -SHRA and may see another late evening round of showers ahead of the cold front. Reduced flight conditions will be possible in any t-storm or heavier showers. After 5Z, all convection should diminish with VFR conditions expected. Wind gusts should diminish this evening with south winds turning SWW behind the fropa late this evening. Winds will be predominantly W tomorrow between 8-12 kts. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update.......TWF Short Term...RAS Long Term....KDW Aviation.....AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
914 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar imagery this evening shows scattered showers continue across eastern zones, but the rest of the area is currently dry albeit quite humid with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Latest HRRR shows some isolated to widely scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two developing along the cold front as it moves across the area tonight, mainly along and north of I-40. However, coverage looks to be much less than previously thought, so have lowered pops for tonight especially across the south. Rest of forecast looks good and only made minor tweaks. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions are expected at airports this TAF period except for a few hours of MVFR visibility at CSV Monday morning. -SHRA will impact CSV this evening, but just VCSH anticipated at the other airports until a fropa arrives between 09-13Z Monday. South to southwest winds this evening will veer to west and northwest after fropa. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
459 PM PDT Sun May 19 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS...Conditions ranged from VFR to MVFR across the TAF sites and this is expected to continue through the evening, with RDM and BDN most likely to be the MVFR locations. Latest radar imagery showed some showers and thunderstorms moving into southeastern Washington and KALW just reported thunder, so have introduced TSRA for a few hours there. Otherwise, most locations will remain VFR. Gradual improvement is expected later tonight and on Monday ahead of the next low. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM PDT Sun May 19 2019/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...A stationary front is currently in a line from Goldendale to John Day down to the Lower Treasure Valley. Rainfall amounts over the past 6 hours in the forecast area have been 0.25-0.5 inch throughout the John Day Basin and surrounding mountains with lesser amounts over north central and northeast Oregon and south central Washington. The front will be oriented more west-east over northern Oregon this evening. Although the Blue Mountains north of Ukiah and Wallowa County north of the Eagle Caps have seen little rain today, precipitation will increase in these areas this evening. Flood Watches are in effect for a large portion of northeast Oregon down to the John Day-Ochoco Highlands. Based on latest radar trends and rainfall amounts, the area of most concern at this point is in Grant County, including along HWY 395, where rock and mudslides are a possibility. A small thunderstorm developed near North Powder this afternoon, and there is a potential for isolated thunderstorms over northeast Oregon and southeast Washington this evening. Visible satellite shows clearing or breaks in the overcast in this area, and the HRRR indicates a few cells this evening. The front will stretch apart as the upper flow splits, and precipitation will taper off after midnight. The Flood Watch may be cancelled earlier depending on rainfall amounts this evening. Another closed upper low will quickly follow and dive southeast along the eastern Pacific tonight and Monday then over the corner of southwest Oregon on Monday night. Therefore, more precipitation is on the way. The east slopes of the WA/OR Cascades and central Oregon will have scattered to numerous showers Monday afternoon then the remainder of the area on Tuesday. The Blues and Wallowas will likely receive most precipitation with 0.3-0.6 in the forecast. There will also be light snow accumulations above 5000 feet and at least several inches along the peaks of the Eagle Caps, Elkhorns, and Strawberries. The low will move into Nevada late Tuesday, leaving scattered showers in a cyclonic flow aloft Tuesday night and Wednesday. An interesting pattern will set up by Wednesday with the Nevada low pinwheeling around another low over the northern Great Plains. This leaves a very large elongated trough across the U.S. west of the Mississippi, including the Pacific NW. Northerly winds at the surface and aloft will increase Wednesday and will be breezy in many areas. Wister LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...Models in good agreement in showing Great Basin upper low finally moving off to the northeast resulting in northerly flow across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in a very short-lived break in the precipitation. The next upper level low drops down from BC on Friday. The GFS is a little stronger with this system than the ECMWF. Despite this fact, showers should develop over the CWA Friday afternoon, especially the mountains. The activity will decrease Friday night as the system heads into northern California. Models begin to diverge on their solution to this system on Saturday as it hangs out over California. The GFS keeps the aforementioned low over northern California while the ECMWF moves it into central California. Given the differences, will keep scattered showers over our southern forecast area, primarily mountains. By Sunday, the low has moved far enough to the south that most of the CWA should remain dry. However, an isolated shower may be seen over Deschutes county. Daytime highs will begin near normal but warm to above normal by the weekend. Earle AVIATION...Previous discussion...18z TAFs...A storm system over northern California will bring areas of rain through the period, but mainly over Oregon. VFR conditions will prevail, except MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBY are likely, especially during periods of rain, at KRDM and KBDN. Winds will be 10-15 kts with higher afternoon gusts, but are expected to decrease overnight. Earle && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 46 68 47 61 / 60 10 70 60 ALW 47 70 48 64 / 60 10 70 60 PSC 51 76 52 70 / 10 0 60 40 YKM 50 69 48 69 / 10 20 60 40 HRI 48 72 49 67 / 30 0 60 40 ELN 47 64 47 64 / 10 20 70 40 RDM 39 61 39 60 / 90 40 70 40 LGD 44 62 42 54 / 90 10 80 80 GCD 43 59 41 54 / 100 30 80 60 DLS 49 65 47 67 / 50 30 50 40 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ORZ049-050-502-503-505- 506-508. WA...None. && $$ 85/81/77
National Weather Service Charleston WV
908 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front Monday. Then, high pressure builds to provide plenty of sunshine and a gradually warming through Friday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 905 PM Sunday... Will increase pops in the western counties and attempt to better time that band of showers. As of 745 PM Sunday... Updated pops to better handle convection in the mountains this evening. As of 150 PM Sunday... Isolated to scattered convection has indeed developed along the mountain ridges as of 18Z. The lift for these storms is primarily due to orographics from strengthening southerly flow, though not an ideal direction. Latest run of RAP indicates ML CAPE values are in the 1200 to 1400 J/kg range. The approach of a mid level trof and associated increase in mid level flow should allow coverage to increase a bit across these locations in the thru 21Z. Outside of the high terrain, convection chances diminish rapidly for the remainder of the afternoon with no real forcing to lift parcels. Some of the mountain convection may spill over into the adjacent lowland counties, however steering flow should motion storms to NNE. Confidence is not high on this occurring ATTM. Having said that, the best adjacent lowland locations to see any convection later this afternoon would be say from Sutton to Clarksburg. SPC continues to highlight the northern mountains with a slight risk this afternoon. Shear values are marginal for overall organization, however surface to mid level delta theta e values and DCAPE do support a damaging wind potential...primarily with the stronger collapsing cores. Mountain/adjacent convective activity will diminish in intensity and coverage with sunset. The upper trof and associated cold front will move thru the area tonight. However, with little in the way instability, I have only low chances for a prefrontal band of showers moving thru. A secondary front looks to cross on Monday, however with moisture confined to the low levels, thinking any precip would be in the afternoon across the mountains and void of thunder. CAA and lower dewpoints will arrive across SE OH late in the afternoon on a refreshing breeze, taking until the evening to arrive east of the OH River. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 PM Sunday... A surface high pressure system builds from the northwest to provide dry and about normal temperatures under light northerly flow Monday night into Tuesday night. Lows will range from the lower 50s lowlands to the low 40s highest elevations. Highs Tuesday will stay a around 70 degrees lowlands ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday... On Wednesday morning, a warm front develops south of the area and should gradually lift north under increasing southwest flow into early Thursday. Then, the area will remain in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Model`s consensus indicate warm air and moisture advection will gradually increase through the end of the week. Temperatures will increase from the mid 80s Wednesday, to around 90 degrees Thursday and Friday. Showers and storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 PM Sunday... Some scattered convection this evening should gradually tapper off. A cold front will then push across the region late tonight and early Monday. Some MVFR clouds are possible along the cold front, along with a chance of some showers producing some restrictions. A cumulus deck can be expected on Monday, with some afternoon showers possible in the lingering moisture. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some showers along the cold front could cause restrictions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/20/19 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/30 SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY