Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/18/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure crosses the area late this evening, with
a backdoor cold front dropping south into southern Virginia and
northeast North Carolina on Saturday. The boundary lifts back
north as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday as high
pressure becomes anchored off the southeast and mid Atlantic
coast through early next week. The next cold front crosses the
region Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 pm EDT Friday...
Isolated to widely sct showers continuing to fire NW of Richmond
along and just south of I-64. Locally heavy rainfall is the
primary concern at this point, but a few stronger (sub-svr) wind
gusts and small hail possible.
Majority of convective potential lies to the west with
developing MCS dropping across WV and far W VA. Threat will
continue to steadily taper off as MCS decays overnight, but will
hang on to shower chance into the early morning hours late
tonight, with showers clearing out late.
Previous discussion...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...
Latest analysis indicating WNW flow aloft, with a weak sfc
trough over the region. Earlier clouds from the morning
decaying MCS have scattered out. Thus far, nothing developing on
the radar, though an area of BKN cloud cover has developed over
south central VA.
Models continue to differ with respect to timing and the
strength of the next projected shortwave energy aloft into early
this evening, but the overall theme remains unchanged in that a
synoptic NW flow aloft is often a signal for strong to severe
tstms this time of year provided that adequate instability is
present. The CAMs also show conflicting coverage of tstms into
this evening, with the HRRR generally only suggesting about a
20-30% coverage, while the NAM and the ARW is a little more
robust. SPC Day 1 outlook continues to have areas from FVX to
RIC to the northern Neck in a slight risk (mainly due to
effective shear to around 40 kt) with a bordering area of
marginal risk for southern VA (where shear is a little lower to
30-35 kt). The primary risk is highest for damaging wind gusts
but won`t rule out some large hail as well.
(a little cooler on the
eastern shore).
Will have highest PoPs (still capped in the 30-40% range) from
21Z- 00Z over the NW, then transitioning through the heart of
the CWA during the evening. The highest severe threat will be
through around 02Z, with less of a threat thereafter. Convection
will slowly weaken later this evening and overnight as the
shortwave moves east. A weak/backdoor cold front is then progged
to sag S across the local area overnight switching the winds to
the NE (especially along the coast). Partly/mostly cloudy skies
this evening become partly cloudy after midnight. Warm with
lows mostly in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...
Models show the front washing out over the area Sat before
lifting back north as a warm front by Sat night/Sun. Low level
flow becomes onshore near the coast Sat with a weak pressure
gradient as high pressure becoming centered off the mid Atlc
coast. Data rather sporadic wrt the amount of moisture, but did
keep ~20% PoPs across portions of the SE inland from the coast
(given wind convergence ivof the boundaries) and nw Piedmont
(ivof the advancing warm front wrt convection drifting se from
off the Blue ridge). Winds shift back to the SSE allows for the
summer heat to overspread areas west of the bay. Skies pt sunny
with highs mid/upper 80s (around 90 F far SW) west of the bay
but lingering onshore flow (lcl sea- breezes) keep areas near
the water in the mid 70s-lwr 80s.
Slight chc to chc PoPs Sat night across the north ivof the
northward lifting warm front. Lows in the 60s.
Sunday appears to be the hottest day as the warm front finally lifts
north of the local area with the Bermuda ridge taking control. Any PoPs
limited to the extreme nrn zones. Highs in the upr 80s/around
90f except 80-85 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sun night with
lows in the 60s, then partly/mostly sunny again Mon with highs
into the upper 80s/around 90F most areas (just as warm at the
coast due to a stronger SW wind).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
Upper-level ridge will remain centered over the SE states throughout
next week. The Mid-Atlantic will be on the edge of the ridge with a
few frontal system moving across the area. There`s more confidence
that the southern VA Piedmont will remain hot and dry throughout the
extended with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
A cold front will move through Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Slight chance of Pops and isolated tstrm with the front (20-
30%) on Tuesday morning east of I-95. Temperatures will be cooler
with highs in the mid 80s along I-64 and 70s at the beaches and MD
eastern shore. The heat will begin to build back northeast
Wednesday. GFS has the ridge building back north earlier on
Wednesday than most guidance. With 850 mb temps rising to 16-19C and
with downsloping, highs may get to the upper 80s to near 90 west of
Richmond. With a onshore flow at the surface temps will remain in
the 70s at the beaches and eastern shore.
Thursday and Friday the ridge will amplify over that area with hot
and mostly dry conditions. Highs will reach in the low 90s inland
and mid 80s at the beaches. Shortwaves will be moving along the edge
of the ridge just to the north of the area. That may bring
showers/tstms to the MD eastern shore.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 925 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions across area terminals, with isolated to
scattered showers/tstms in the vicinity of KRIC from 02Z
through 04Z inland, shifting to the coast (PHF-ORF) from
04-06Z. Not enough coverage to go with prevailing showers or
tstms at any of the main terminals. Generally drying out after
midnight, with winds shifting to the NNE towards 12Z/Sat
morning. There could be a few hrs worth of low clouds/patchy fog
early Sat but that will be dependent upon where the rain falls
tonight so did not include in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR with NE
winds up to 10 kt on Sat and mainly dry conditions. An isolated
shower/tstm possible by late Sat aftn.
Outlook:
The weak frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front Sat
night into Sun, with some isolated to widely scattered showers
and tstms Sat night. Sun will generally see winds turning more
to the SSW inland and to the SSE along the coast with mainly VFR
conditions. A little bit stronger SW wind for Mon with late day
tstms possible.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...
Surface high pressure off the Southeast coast will continue to
produce SSW winds 5-15 knots over the marine area through this
evening. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft.
A cold front will drop south across the waters from late tonight
into Saturday morning, turning winds to the N and NE by Saturday
morning, then eventually E and SE Saturday afternoon as the front
continues south. The front then returns north and east on Sunday as
a warm front, with winds veering to the SSE. The pressure gradient
will tighten a bit late Sunday and into Monday with south/southwest
winds increasing to 10-15 knots, with 15-20 knots possible offshore
for a brief time Monday evening. Another low passing to the north
Tuesday morning will send a cold front southeastward, allowing winds
to become northwesterly 10-15 knots, then becoming NE in the
afternoon. Waves in the bay will generally run 1-2 ft and seas 2-4
ft through the period. As of now, sub-SCA conditions are expected
through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels on the Bayside of the lower MD Eastern Shore
(specifically around Bishops Head) will continue to run
above normal with the next high tide cycle tonight. Water levels
may touch or just exceed minor flooding thresholds at Bishops
head. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
643 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Main impactful weather concerns through Saturday are on the
potential for periods of heavy rainfall, which could lead to some
flooding, and the possibility for a few storms capable of producing
large hail and maybe gusty winds. This activity arrives in a few
rounds, potentially three.
Round 1: A trough lifts into the Upper Midwest tonight pushing an
elevated warm front north into the forecast area. This front will be
the focus for thunderstorms development and the potential for heavy
rain and localized flooding. Latest convective allowing models
suggest thunderstorms get going along the elevated warm front in the
5 to 8 Z timeframe over southeast Minnesota into west central
Wisconsin. This activity should continue to increase and
potentially drift north as 850 mb moisture transport focuses into
the front. With ongoing convection along this front, it may be
difficult for the front to make northward progress, increasing the
potential for repeated rounds of rain and possible flooding. Will
have to monitor the evolution and movement of the thunderstorms
activity closely tonight.
Round 2: A line of storms looks to move across the area from west to
east Saturday morning. Latest HRRR models show the line moving into
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa by 12 Z then progressing
eastward through the morning, moving into western Wisconsin around
13Z then finally exiting the forecast area by 16Z. These storms
appear to riding on the leading edge of the strongest 850 mb
moisture transport, so the HRRR model solutions make sense. These
storms will likely produce a quick round of heavy rainfall but the
heavy rain environment isn`t overly impressive with warm cloud
depth of around 3.5 km and precipitable water values of 1.2 to
1.4. But this rain on top of saturated soils may cause additional
localized flooding, following any potentially heavy rainfall from
Friday night into early Saturday morning. This line of storms may
also produce some large hail with the RAP indicating elevated CAPE
values approaching 1300 J/kg when lifting from 850 mb.
Round 3: We should then see a brief break in the activity between
mid morning and early afternoon before more thunderstorms develop in
the 3 to 4 pm timeframe as the main trough starts to lift north out
of the Central Plains. Will have to keep a very close eye on the
position of the warm front and tipple point as the surface low
moves into northeast Iowa. There is a window for surface based
storms over northeast Iowa Saturday afternoon with the potential
for a Supercell or two. Also, north of the front there is the
possibility for elevated storms capable of producing large hail.
If surface bases storms develop, main potential for this will be
over northeast Iowa, there could be a window for an isolated
tornado however 0-1 km Shear isn`t overly strong, 15 to perhaps 25
kts closer to the warm front. Convection then becomes widespread
by late afternoon into Saturday evening as the trough continues to
lift north producing broad lift across the area. The threat then
transitions over to heavy rainfall Saturday evening into the
overnight. With saturated ground and potentially higher rainfall
rates, there could be flash flooding concerns starting Saturday
afternoon and continuing into Saturday night. A Flood Watch may be
needed from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Rain then tapers off during the day on Sunday as the low lifts off
to the northeast. If the GFS solution holds, there could be another
shot at strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon as the surface low
lifts northeast across the area, but confidence is low on this.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Focus in the long term turns to thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
Another vigorous low pressure system lifts northeast out of the
Central Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Depending on the timing
of this system through the region, there is the potential for strong
to severe storms. Confidence is too low at this point to nail down
details on potential storm threats. The active pattern will continue
through the end of next week as southwest flow aloft continues
across the region. The next potential round of showers and storms
could impact the area Thursday into Friday. The good news is that
temperatures look to warm a bit for the last half of next week with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, possibly warming into
the low to mid 70s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
An axis of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
lift north through the region this evening and overnight,
impacting LSE and RST through roughly 06Z before lifting
sufficiently far north to end any thunder risk. Another line of
showers and storms is then expected to arrive from the west
roughly in the 12-15Z time range Saturday morning, with another
break following into the afternoon, before yet more widespread
rain and storms redevelop through the late afternoon and evening
hours. Overall, conditions will remain MVFR at RST and primarily
VFR at LSE through the evening, but should briefly improve for
many areas to VFR overnight as drier air works in from the east.
However, a return to MVFR or even IFR ceilings is likely through
the day Saturday, with even some hints that widespread IFR
conditions will envelop the entire area, north of a warm front
stuck just to our south. Will have to monitor conditions closely
to see if that develops, but overall, looking like a very active
stretch of weather the next 24-36 hours, with winds pretty much
steady-state from the southeast 8-15 knots through midday Saturday
before gradually diminishing later in the day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Through Sunday.
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area
mainly tonight through Sunday night. The heaviest rain is expected
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. If thunderstorms repeat over
areas, flash flooding could develop. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are possible. River flooding will also become a growing
concern. Will continue with a hydrologic outlook for much of the
area, but confidence is increasing that a flood watch may be needed
from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Those living in areas
prone to flooding, especially along rivers and streams, should be
prepared to move to higher ground if heavy rainfall develops.
Continue to monitor forecasts closely.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Lawrence
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
934 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Showers should continue to decrease during the remainder of the
evening into the overnight. Could still see a few showers develop
along the northern sections of the forecast area as a mid level
trof moves into that region. Otherwise, most areas should begin
to dry out overnight as the isentropic lift weakens.
UPDATE Issued at 715 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Latest mesoanalysis was showing the bulk of the instability east
in central Nebraska with limited convective development in
northern Colorado. As a result, we have decided to cancel the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the southern Nebraska panhandle.
UPDATE Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Currently issuing warnings on the cluster of storms moving
northeast through Cheyenne county Nebraska...with large hail
being the primary threat. We were able to bring down Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 171 for Scottsbluff and Banner counties as
MUCAPES and SBCAPES remain low due to cloudcover and rain, however
the Sidney NE area remains unstable enough to sustain strong
updrafts and hail potential...and elevated storms could persist
with large hail up into southeastern Morrill county. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 171 continues for Kimball, Cheyenne and Morrill
counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri May 17 2019
.Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected Today...
Morning objective analysis showed a classic post frontal upslope
flow regime across far northern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming,
and western Nebraska. The wavy front was analyzed near the
Colorado Nebraska kansas border along with an attendant 998 mb
surface cyclone and a southward developing dryline. Rich boundary
layer moisture, with dewpoints in the middle 50s, was pooled
along and north of the front. Mid 60s dewpoints were located further
south and east across the warm sector. Morning satellite showed
the beginnings of a low stratus deck taking shape across the
panhandle in response to upslope moistening. Surface pressure
falls near 0.3 mb/hour have been noted, and will continue this
morning as the lee low gradually lifts north and east along the
front in response to downstream DPVA from the large west coast
trough moving onshore. This will set the stage for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
High resolution guidance continues to paint an interesting picture
this afternoon and evening as the lee low and front begin to move
to the north and east. The rich moisture in place will underlay
steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 c/km from the cold upper
trough. This will allow sufficient destabilization to shape up
this afternoon. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg is likely along the front
and through the southern panhandle. Low level easterly upslope
flow should continue as mass response form the lee low accelerates
this morning and afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles with
sufficient vertical shear, in combination with the ample
instability should support robust thunderstorm development from
1700-2300z. Hi-res guidance shows two primary areas of activity
this afternoon. One area along the laramie range and a second area
of more discrete convection along the I-80 corridor and the WY/NE
border region. The latter of the two areas is the primary concern
for more significant severe weather.
.East Central Wyoming...
The stalled front currently lying along the laramie range will
serve as focus for convection early this afternoon and evening.
Moisture is not as great here with dewpoints in the mid 40s
expected. Regardless, SBCAPE near 500 /kg should allow scattered
to numerous storms to develop around 1700z. Strong winds and
large hail will be the primary threat with these storms, as most
models show a linear structure developing and moving to the northeast.
An isolated tornado is not out of the question along the front.
However, low level shear is not as strong. SPC slight risk lines
up well with current thinking. Flash Flooding is also a concern in
this area with training storms and the lift from the stalled
front. QPF values near 0.5 to 0.75 inches are forecast which could
cause some flooding problems. The stalled front will push through
as a cold front later this evening ending the severe threat as
temperatures drop.
.I-80 corridor and the WY/NE border...
The combination of ingredients suggests a robust severe threat
early this afternoon and evening. Low level shear will be
maximized along the front roughly along a line from Carpenter to
Bridgeport. Model soundings show bulk shear near 70 kts with low
level shear in the 10 to 20 kt range. Models have not had a good
handle on the low level wind fields and the low level jet this
evening. Latest CYS VWP data showed very large low level
hodographs with 0-1km SRH near 350 m2/s2 compared to the HRRR
which showed very poor low level winds. The difference in 700 mb
flow is significant, and could signal a greater tornado threat
than some models currently anticipate. Regardless, most hi-res
guidance shows a corridor of strong UH tracks across the southern
panhandle this evening. Supercells are likely given the magnitude
of vertical shear and favorable parameter space. Strong winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes look likely with these storms.
Development timing is tricky, but is expected to take place
across northern colorado near 1900z. Storms will exit and weaken
by this evening as a cold front pushes through from the west
ending the severe threat.
Saturday is shaping up to be wetter and cooler as the main 500 mb
wave transits overhead. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below
average and stuck in the mid to low 50s. Further west, much colder
air is expected to filter in, meaning potential for high
elevation snow. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected through the afternoon and evening hours before the trough
shifts west and brings temporarily relief from the Saturday
evening. Chilly overnight lows near freezing are expected for most
Saturday evening. This trend is expected to continue with an
active storm track through next week.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Not many changes made to the extended portion of the forecast
since all models continue to show a prolonged period of cool and
unsettled weather late this weekend through late next week. Matter
of fact, models are trending even more aggressive with the
Pacific storm system forecast to impact the area late Sunday
through Tuesday of next week. Some models are hinting to the
potential of some snowfall as well across southeast Wyoming with
snowlevels lowering to 5500 feet Monday night and Tuesday night.
Lowering snow levels and increasing POP were the only changes made
to the previous forecast to reflect current model trends.
Models have trended further south with the main storm system on
Monday and Tuesday, with a slow moving upper level low somewhere
across east central Colorado and west central Nebraska. With
ample llvl moisture and very good dynamic support at all levels of
the atmosphere, there is a good potential for moderate to heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms. Will have to closely monitor the
amount of cold air that enters this system on the backside, as
snowfall may become more of a concern. The ECMWF and the Canadian
are the coldest, showing 700mb temperatures between -4c to -6c,
which is enough to support some snowfall down to about 5500 feet
and accumulating snow above 6500 feet. Temperatures from Sunday
night through Tuesday night will be key as current guidance
suggests highs in the 40s across most of the area, which is a good
20 degrees below normal and trending colder each day. Low
temperatures will likely be in the 30s with several areas below
freezing across southeast Wyoming.
Models show the storm system finally moving east of the area by
Wednesday. However, another system will be quick to follow as
another round of thunderstorms and rainfall is forecast by late
Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins. Wind gusts to 30 knots until 03Z,
then gusts to 25 knots after 15Z Saturday.
Occasional MVFR at Laramie until 01Z, otherwise VFR. Wind gusts to
30 knots after 15Z Saturday.
Occasional IFR at Cheyenne until 03Z, then VFR. Wind gusts to 28
knots until 03Z, then wind gusts to 30 knots after 15Z Saturday.
Nebraska TAFS...Occasional IFR at Chadron and Alliance until 03Z,
then MVFR until 15Z, then VFR. Wind gusts to 25 knots after 15Z
Saturday.
MVFR at Scottsbluff until 03Z, then VFR until 06Z, then
MVFR until 15Z, then VFR. Wind gusts to 30 knots until 03Z, then
gusts to 30 knots after 15Z Saturday.
Isolated thunderstorms producing IFR with gusts to 45 knots at
Sidney until 03Z, then MVFR until 15Z, then VFR. Wind gusts to 30
knots after 15Z Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Fire weather concerns are low over the next several days as a
cool and wet weather pattern develop. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are possible limiting fire weather conditions
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...Rubin
FIRE WEATHER...AL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1021 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Well, clearly the cap eroded. Long track tornadic supercells have
caused widespread damage across SW Kansas (refer to the latest
LSRs issued by DDC). The most impressive supercell has tracked
from the Oklahoma state line near Meade, and is still producing a
dangerous tornado approaching Lewis. Tornado damage has occurred
occasionally all along this track.
Cancelled tornado watch behind the supercells.
Cold front/dry line combination is now progressing through US 83
corridor, with new thunderstorms expected to develop along this
boundary as it intersects moisture/instability. These are not
expected to be supercellular, but still large hail/damaging wind
may occur with this activity into the early morning hours.
UPDATE Issued at 536 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Capping inversion of warm air aloft appears to be winning the
battle across SW Kansas. HRRR has been one of the last holdouts
calling for supercell initiation, originating from the Oklahoma
panhandle. A recent attempt at initiation in Beaver county,
Oklahoma on radar/satellite has failed. Pronounced dryline is
clearly visible on radar, from just west of Scott City, to just
west of Liberal. Its eastward momentum is ending, and will begin
retreating soon. With the loss of convergence and strong capping,
reduced pop grids for the next several hours. Kept a 20% mention
out of respect for the extremely unstable airmass east of the
dryline, but it appears convection will struggle or fail to
initiate. Towards midnight, HRRR shows a rapid explosion of
convection from near Dodge City to near Hays, as the cold
front/dryline combination collide with the moisture/instability
axis. This seems reasonable, and large hail is possible from this
activity overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Depending on the strength of a capping inversion, thunderstorms will
be possible this evening as short range models continue to show a
strengthening field of southwesterlies aloft spreading eastward
across the Western High Plains downstream of a negatively tilted
upper level trough shifting across the Great Basin. As an upper
level shortwave perturbation lifts northeast across the Colorado
Rockies into western Nebraska, a deepening surface low in eastern
Colorado will begin to lift northeast into southwest Nebraska.
Meanwhile, a sharpening attendant dryline near and along the
Colorado border will edge slowly eastward across west central and
southwest Kansas. Ahead of the dryline, a prevailing southerly
flow will draw ample moisture into the area with surface dewpoints
climbing up into the lower/mid 60s(F), providing substantial
instability as low/mid level lapse rates steepen. Although the
strength of the cap remains an issue in regards to timing of
initiation and coverage, isolated to potentially widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible early this evening in vicinity of
the dryline as it advances across western Kansas. The better
chance for development looks to be further north toward the I-70
corridor. Based on model soundings, favorable deep layer shear and
instability with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg suggest a
significant severe potential with any storm that develops. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threats initially with
isolated tornadoes also possible.
The focus for thunderstorm chances shifts east late Saturday
afternoon as the main upper level trough axis moves out of the
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains, nudging the dryline
further east into central Kansas by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile,
there is fair agreement betweent the NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF of a
secondary surface low developing generally across extreme southwest
Kansas into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas by early afternoon
with a convergence zone setting up along a developing attendant
boundary extending northeast into central/north central Kansas.
Dependent on recovery time from any convection the previous 12-24
hours, thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of a surface
trough/dryline more toward central Kansas, then later Saturday
evening in west central and portions of southwest Kansas as a
cold front begins to push southeast into the area out of
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.
As for temperatures, a drier and slightly cooler air mass will
spread southeast into western Kansas tonight in wake of the
advancing surface trough/dryline. Look for lows well down into
the 50s(F) by early Saturday morning with a few 60s(F) still
possible in south central Kansas. Expect highs only up into the
70s(F) Saturday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Drier conditions will prevail Sunday as an upper level trough
quickly lifts northeast out of the Central Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Drier and cooler air will filter into the high plains
behind a departing cold front limiting highs to the 70s(F) across
much of the area Sunday afternoon. A few upper 60s(F) will be
possible further north in west central and central Kansas.
Rain chances return Monday into early Tuesday as an easterly upslope
flow sets up across the Western High Plains ahead of yet another
upper level low pushing eastward across the Intermountain West. With
sufficient lift and moisture present, showers/thunderstorms will be
possible by late Monday afternoon as a series of H5 vort maxima
begin to eject out of the Desert Southwest into the high plains of
western Kansas. Medium range models are in fair agreement showing
stronger QFP signals, more specifically across central Kansas where
the ground remains fairly saturated from heavy rainfall in the last
week or so, resulting in potential flooding impacts.
Easterly upslope winds will do little to erode a cooler air mass
settled across the high plains to kick off the work week.
Considering likely increased cloud cover and potential areas of
rain, highs are expected to remain well below normal Monday before
beginning to slowly recover through the middle part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 453 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Strong south winds gusting 35-40 kts late this afternoon will
diminish rapidly this evening as the pressure gradient collapses.
A capping inversion of warm air aloft is expected to prevent
thunderstorm development this evening, and will remove all mention
of convection from the TAFs, but will continue to monitor. Surface
winds will trend light NW overnight, behind the passage of a cold
front/dryline. VFR with variable amounts of cirrus will continue
through tonight, with SKC by 12z Sat. Broken/overcast mid layer
clouds will increase by 18z Sat as main shortwave energy arrives.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely from HYS to
DDC Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 79 49 72 / 20 30 30 0
GCK 49 76 46 71 / 20 30 20 0
EHA 50 75 46 75 / 0 20 10 10
LBL 52 77 47 74 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 56 77 49 69 / 30 30 50 0
P28 64 79 53 74 / 30 40 50 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
958 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
While CAMS models have depicted strong evening convection moving into
Val Verde County, convective inhibition has won for the evening, with
only the Fort Stockton supercell cluster forming in the watch area.
The watch was cancelled for Val Verde County, but we are still
anticipating scattered storms redeveloping over West Central TX into
the southern Edwards Plateau in the predawn hours Saturday. PoP
values may look a bit high for the time being, but will maintain the
values as the effects of the low level jet shower should be
sufficient enough with the moisture levels to generate some showers
beneath the cap in the next few hours. A transition from showers to
storms looks more likely to occur after 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
AVIATION...
Breezy southeasterly winds will continue through much of the period
as a surface low deepens well to our northeast. Think much of the
overnight period will be rain free for the TAF sites outside of the
possibility of a streamer shower. Will have to watch for any
convection in Mexico that could move east into the vicinity of DRT.
Otherwise, MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions can be expected. The CAP
strength will have a big impact on what happens tomorrow. Until a
clearer picture comes into view with how things will develop tonight,
opted to go with VCSH with a PROB30 for TSRA in the afternoon hours
for the I35 sites. Any convection should clear to the east by the
evening hours with VFR expected then.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Convective development is initiating late this afternoon just to the
northwest of the CWA due to boundary layer de-stabilization and
orographic and dry line forcing. Isolated super cells could develop,
and there is a small chance of one or two of these discrete storms
reaching Val Verde county. Very steep mid level lapse rates, yielding
MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, combined with deep layer shear
values of 30-40 kts will support a severe threat across western Val
Verde country through the evening, with large hail the primary
threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 11PM to
cover Val Verde County.
An upper level trough will lift out of the Rockies and into the
Plains overnight and Saturday. Round two begins overnight with storms
initiating to the northwest of the CWA. Many global and convective
allowing models allow a complex of storms to develop across the SJT
CWA. This complex could reach portions of the northern Hill Country
and southern Edwards Plateau during the early morning hours on
Saturday. The threat is expected to transition to more of a damaging
wind threat during this time. Farther east overnight, isolated
streamer showers may occur beneath the cap as 40kt low level jet
develops.
The convective forecast and severe potential beyond early Saturday
morning is highly conditional on the cap, as is often the case with
late Spring events where the main upper level support is to the north
of the area. 12Z BUFR forecast soundings from the NAM12 and GFS tell
the story, with the NAM12 partially eroding the cap across northern
areas of the CWA while maintaining the cap the further south and east
you go into the CWA. The could help explain why the NAM-3km quickly
decays the squall line midday Saturday as it reaches the I-35
corridor. GFS soundings are a little more optimistic with eroding
the cap farther south and east. A wide range of scenarios is depicted
by 12Z CAMs, with the ARW and NSSL WRF farther south with the
convective line, while the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF not showing much
of anything across the CWA.
Overall the PoP forecast will remain similar to the previous package,
showing the highest potential for the complex of storms reaching the
I-35 corridor across the northern CWA. We have included a severe
potential in the grids and zones to line up with SPC Day 2 convective
outlook. But again, this is all highly conditional on the cap mentioned
above. A severe threat will continue through the midday and into the
afternoon if the cap does erode, or forcing from the complex or line
segments is able to overcome the weaker portion of the cap. Damaging
winds and hail are the primary threats, although an isolated tornado
threat could occur across portions of the northeast CWA. Rainfall
amounts of 1/2 to 2 inches are forecast across the northern CWA and
less than 1/2 inch are forecast across southern areas of the CWA,
again cap conditional. There is a small threat isolated convection
could linger into Saturday night as the dry line remains retreats
slightly back to the west and the front never clears the area.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The next upper level trough will dig through the Great Basin and
Four Corners Sunday and Monday and eject northeast into the Central
Plains Tuesday. There is a slight signal in the models of precip
chances across western areas of the CWA Sunday night into Monday.
The tail end of the forcing comes across Monday night into Tuesday.
However, once again South Central Texas will be well removed from the
main forcing. Thus PoPs remain relatively low at this time.
An amplified upper level pattern will develop Wednesday through
Friday, with a large ridge across the Southeast U.S. and Gulf and
upstream trough across the western U.S. South Central Texas will
remain between the two features, resulting in breezy conditions and
low level moisture trapped beneath the cap, possibly producing some
isolated streamer showers. With the upper level trough far enough to
the west, dry line convection should remain mainly west of the area,
possible exception being Val Verde county.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 82 72 91 73 / 30 70 20 - -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 83 71 90 73 / 20 70 20 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 82 72 91 73 / 20 60 20 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 72 80 68 90 70 / 50 80 10 0 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 74 92 69 95 75 / 40 30 0 0 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 81 71 90 72 / 30 80 20 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 75 87 71 93 75 / 30 50 20 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 82 71 90 73 / 20 60 20 - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 85 74 90 75 / 20 60 40 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 83 73 92 75 / 20 50 20 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 75 83 73 92 75 / 20 50 20 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Challenges and Concerns: Arrival of MVFR cigs/-SHRA after 06z,
then timing window for strong-severe convection at all airports
and when to improve conditions by 00z Sunday.
Made only minor adjustments to both timing MVFR stratus northward
across all airports between 04z-07z Saturday. With surface
temperatures expected to remain relatively warm due to strong and
occasionally gusty S/SE winds overnight and the surging stratus,
cigs levels may straddle FL020 for several hours. This is due to
the surface-boundary layer remaining semi-coupled.
As for timing SHRA and TS, pick your poison on the CAMs with the
first signs of large-scale ascent and storms occurring across the
Permian Basin as of this writing. I only made slight delayed
timing at DFW airports with the bulk of storms occurring between
13z-19z. Timing at Waco will be 1-2 hours delayed. I did add
brief gusty westerly winds 25-40 knots in mid-late morning window
of strong-severe TS TEMPO groups, along with IFR VSBY with the
off and on heavier convective rainfall. Depending on whether
runways at DFW are wet or not, some crosswind issues on
N-S-oriented runways may occur for a few hours in the 15z-18z
Saturday window at DFW International Airport.
As Saturday progresses beyond 19z, it`s hard to say if new
isolated-scattered TS will be able to develop with another
shortwave rotating across the region. Our atmosphere will have
been worked over quite well and CAMs will likely struggle to
diagnose what our thermodynamic environment(instability) will
actually be. I kept VCTS in through late afternoon with VFR cigs
and SSW winds 20-25 knots remaining through early evening. Surface
winds will back slightly and slacken to around 15 knots after 00z
Sunday.
05/
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
/Tonight through Saturday Night/
An active weather pattern is currently taking shape across the
west with a developing upper trough centered near the Great Basin.
This trough will push steadily east across the Rockies
overnight/Monday, resulting in increasing large scale lift and mid
level destabilization from West Texas northward to the Central
Plains. North and Central Texas will remain in warm southwest
flow aloft which should keep a cap in place and limit convective
development through the evening. However, storms should develop
over the Concho Valley during the evening as a fast moving
shortwave ejects northeast from the main upper trough and
interacts with a moist and unstable environment. These storms will
likely become organized late this evening/overnight once a 40+
knot southeasterly low level jet develops. The high res models
have been in fairly good agreement overall with regards to storm
development and organization into a linear MCS overnight/Saturday
morning. Given this scenario, storms would enter the western zones
in the pre-dawn hours, reach the I-35 corridor by mid morning and
progress eastward through the afternoon. This still is the most
likely scenario, although the 18Z HRRR is now showing a much
slower evolution with storms not organizing until midday Saturday.
Although this solution is certainly not out of the realm of
possibilities, we will maintain a model consensus forecast for
now. Some strong to severe storms will be possible as the line
marches eastward with damaging winds and large hail the primary
hazards. Severe storms will become more likely Saturday afternoon
as line moves to the east, especially if some surface heating and low
level destabilization can occur. Hail and damaging wind will
remain the primary threats, but there will be some tornado risk
if some storms can develop out ahead of the main line (especially
south of I-20 and east of I-35).
Although storm chances should end from west to east through the
day, there is some potential for redevelopment across the
northwest zones late in the afternoon, but it will all depend on
how early the line of storms comes through and how long clouds
linger behind it. Therefore, we will maintain some low PoPs in
all zones through the afternoon.
Storms should finally end across the southeast zones Saturday
night as a ridge begins to build in behind the departing upper
low and a weak cold front enters the region.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
/Sunday through Friday/
Much quieter weather is expected on Sunday with a building ridge
aloft and drier air near the surface behind a weak cold front. The
cold front will likely not push through the entire CWA on Sunday
with the bulk of the cold air advection remaining well to the
northeast. The front will likely stall near the I-20 corridor,
resulting in cooler temperatures across the northern half of the
region. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s near the Red
River to the upper 80s in the south.
The upper ridge will not take up residence long across the Lone
Star State with another low pressure system progged to gather
strength across the Great Basin Sunday night and Monday. Low level
moisture will surge back to the north in response to the
intensifying system with warmer, breezy and more humid air
returning to the region. Thunderstorm chances will also return
Monday as one lobe of energy pivots northeast towards the Central
High Plains and the dryline mixes to the east. Thunderstorms will
be slow to develop during the day Monday due to a cap of warm air
streaming in from the Mexican Plateau. However, a few storms may
develop across the northwest Monday afternoon where the cap will
be most likely to break. Storm chances will increase Monday night
as the lead lobe of energy lifts towards the Central Plains and
the dryline moves farther east. Storms will likely organize on the
dryline Monday night due to strong deep layer shear, abundant
moisture and moderate instability. Severe storms will be likely
given the expected variables with all modes of severe weather
possible. Storms will move east across the remainder of the
region Tuesday, but they should lose some of their intensity with
decreasing upper dynamics and veering low level winds.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail the second half of next week
with a building ridge across the eastern half of the nation and a
longwave trough in the west. This will keep moist southeast low
level flow in place, resulting in warm weather Wednesday through
Friday with highs in the mid and upper 80s and lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. Scattered storms will be possible across the
most of the region during the afternoon and evening, but the
general weather pattern will keep a cap of warm air in place in
the mid levels of the atmosphere. We will keep the highest PoPs in
the western zones where the cap will be the weakest and the
dryline will approach each afternoon.If any storms do manage to
develop, they should have enough instability and shear to become
strong/severe. The good news is that coverage of storms Wednesday
through Friday (should they develop) will be very limited.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 79 66 88 70 / 30 80 20 0 10
Waco 72 82 69 89 71 / 40 80 20 0 10
Paris 69 77 67 84 65 / 10 80 80 0 10
Denton 70 79 61 86 68 / 30 80 20 0 10
McKinney 71 78 64 85 68 / 20 80 30 0 10
Dallas 73 80 68 89 72 / 20 80 20 0 10
Terrell 71 80 68 87 69 / 20 80 50 0 10
Corsicana 72 82 70 88 71 / 20 80 50 5 10
Temple 71 82 69 89 71 / 40 80 20 0 10
Mineral Wells 68 82 58 87 67 / 60 80 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
914 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Just completed an update due to the expiration of the tornado
watch. Had earlier made adjustments to add blowing dust and adjust
other hourly grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Overview: A lee cyclone in eastern Colorado -- associated with
strengthening SW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level low progressing from NV into UT -- will track northeast into
central Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
Diffluent flow aloft, DPVA attendant small amplitude waves in SW
flow aloft, and low-level convergence invof the aforementioned lee
cyclone -- focused along a N-S oriented dryline along the CO/KS
border and a WSW-ENE oriented station Scattered thunderstorms may
develop during the afternoon and evening hours this weekend and
early next week. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible.nary front extending from Washington/Yuma counties in
Colorado to Dundy/Hitchcock counties in Nebraska -- will aid in
the development of scattered convection across the Tri-State area
this afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR
continue to indicate that isolated convection will develop along
the dryline invof Goodland ~20Z and track northeast to McCook by
~23Z. HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts suggest (albeit with
less run-to-run continuity) that isolated convection may develop
invof the intersection of the stationary front and dryline over
central Yuma county ~21-22Z. At this time, the greatest potential
for severe weather is expected along a SW-NE corridor from Sharon
Springs/GoodlaScattered thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon and evening hours this weekend and early next week.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible.nd to
Atwood/Oberlin/McCook between 20-02Z, with the most favorable
environmental conditions in northeast portions of the GLD CWA
where H85 dewpoints are ~16C and MLCAPE values will approach 3500
J/kg at peak heating. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong
instability, and 40-50 knots of effective deep layer shear suggest
that established updrafts will quickly become robust supercells
capable of producing very large hail (2-4") and damaging wind
gusts up to 80 mph. Convection is initially anticipated to be
high-based with relatively little tornado potential, however,
tornado potential will increase with north/east extent from
Goodland -- where rich low-level moisture is less likely to
decrease mix-out in association with the eastward advancing dry-
line -- particularly between 00-02Z as low- level shear increases
in association with strengthening southerly flow /onset of the
nocturnal LLJ/.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
The closed low is expected to be situated over Rockies by tomorrow.
As the low moves northeast, a weak ridge moves across the central
Plains Sunday and Sunday night. Another trough associated with an
upper level closed low begins to move back into the central U.S.
Monday. As the low moves north, another low builds in behind over
the west-central U.S. Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF both have the
closed low over the west-central U.S. stalling and weakening over
that region as high pressure builds west from the southeastern U.S.
through Friday. The GFS has the high pressure begin to weaken over
the southeast U.S. Friday while the ECMWF does not show the high
pressure weakening until next Saturday.
A series of surface lows are expected to move across the Tri-State
region throughout the extended forecast period. These lows will
brings chances for rain and thunderstorms throughout much of the
extended forecast period. Temperatures will warm through Thursday
with a slight cooling Friday ranging from the 50s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019
Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld,
southwest winds 22 to 27 knots with gusts of 30 to 39 knots will
occur through 08z. At 08z the winds will be west at 7 knots. That
will continue until 18z when they will shift to the north at 9
knots.
For Kmcks, thunderstorms will quickly exit the area by 01z. South
winds near 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots will shift to the
west from 02z to 03z. From 06z to 07z those winds will decrease to
9 knots from the west. Those winds will continue until 22z when
they shift to the north at 9 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
754 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
...Aviation Section Updated...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Multiple chances for strong to severe storms from tonight through
tomorrow night.
A strong upper trough continues to push northeast out of the four
corners region. A surface low over eastern CO will continue to
strengthen and slowly shift toward the NE/KS/CO region this
afternoon. A dryline will sharpen through the afternoon and extend
south from the low from northeast Kansas to Texas. Discrete
storms are progged to develop along the dryline in western KS with
perpendicular deep layer shear across the dryline. However
backing occurs from 700mb to 500mb would suggest storms may be
less organized. Storm development in western Kansas could glance
by Central Kansas late this evening but a stronger cap in the area
suggests storms may struggle to make it into the CWA.
The approaching cold front with synoptic scale lift with weak CIN
across Central KS could produce some strong to severe storms
overnight. Likely mode is more linear overnight as deep layer flow
parallels the front. Severe hail up to half dollar size with
gusts up to 65 mph may be possible across Central KS and dime to
quarter size hail possible across South Central and Southeast KS.
Lift increases into the early morning hours from the approaching
trough. This, combined with lift from the right entrance region of
an upper jet and weak CIN over the area, may spark early
convection across much of the area. Backing in the 700mb flow will
likely hinder well organized convection in the morning, so
thinking mainly strong to marginally severe storms possible.
Throughout the day Saturday, enhanced lift from the trough with a
stalled cold front will continue to weaken any cap across the entire
area and will likely result in widespread convection. The RAP is the
most aggressive with this idea. Storm mode seems the most
challenging-although with such large forcing for ascent a widespread
clusters seem the most plausible. Model differences exist in the
strength/ position of the frontal boundary as well as the strength
of the CAP. If the CAP persists more explosive convection may be
possible. Main hazards that are expected with afternoon convection
will be mainly severe hail up to golf ball to lime size and severe
wind gusts. Messy congealing storm modes may limit even larger
severe hail.
However early on if a any discrete storms are able to organize all
severe hazards will be possible across south central KS. Significant
hail to near tennis ball size, a couple of tornadoes, and severe
winds will be possible. RAP soundings indicate decent ESRH with 0-
3km CAPE near 220 j/kg and very low LCLs across south central KS.
Hodographs show decent low level curvature but are rather chaotic
aloft with some backing above 750mb, this does lessen the confidence
in widespread sig hail/tornadoes some but the possibility does exist.
Sunday is looking quiet behind the front and in a large scale
subsidence pattern.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
The next period of concern is Monday. Yet another upper level
trough will be influencing the area Monday with a strengthening
sfc low off the east. Potential for very heavy rain exists Monday
into Tuesday as PW anomalies approach 3 standard deviations above
normal, mainly confined to South Central and Southeast KS. Higher
confidence is in the concern for flooding during this period.
Large differences remain in model output of the warm front and
associated instability. Further model runs will help the resolve
the severe weather potential. Another shot of weather looks to hit
the area mid-next week. Stay tuned for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 754 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Primary aviation concerns: Gusty winds, LLWS, TSRA
Deepening low pressure over the High Plains will allow gusty south
winds to continue well into the night, along with a continued risk
of LLWS as the low level jet increases. TSRA have begun developing
along the dryline over western Kansas and these storms may clip
portions of central KS later this evening. Given the potential, I
have added a VCTS mention for that area. Storms may wane some
overnight, although with the dryline/frontal boundary nearby, we
cannot completely rule out SHRA/TSRA at anytime overnight.
Regardless, the coverage of TSRA is expected to increase on
Saturday, with a continued threat of strong to severe storms.
Significant reductions in visibility are likely due to heavy rain.
Which terminals will see the greatest impact is still a bit
unclear, and we`ll continue to refine this area in later TAF
cycles.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 69 77 55 72 / 40 60 70 0
Hutchinson 65 76 53 71 / 40 50 70 0
Newton 68 75 53 70 / 40 60 70 10
ElDorado 69 76 54 71 / 40 70 70 10
Winfield-KWLD 70 76 55 73 / 30 70 70 0
Russell 56 77 48 69 / 40 30 60 0
Great Bend 56 77 50 70 / 30 30 60 0
Salina 65 76 52 70 / 50 60 70 10
McPherson 65 76 53 70 / 40 60 70 10
Coffeyville 70 75 57 76 / 40 80 80 10
Chanute 69 75 56 74 / 30 80 80 10
Iola 69 75 56 73 / 20 80 80 20
Parsons-KPPF 70 74 56 75 / 30 80 80 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2019
Did a quick update to drop PoPs and convection through the rest of
the night. Also added in the latest obs/trends to the T and Td
grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2019
23z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging up from the south
through most of Kentucky. A wavy frontal boundary if found near
the Ohio River to the north and this has proven to be the genesis
for many thunderstorms late in the afternoon and early this
evening with several of them severe. A couple of these cut through
extreme northern parts of the JKL CWA and a severe thunderstorm
watch was in effect until they passed. Luckily they all stayed
below severe limits for our counties affected with mainly
lightning, gusty winds, and possibly small hail the worst of the
effects. So now the storms have ended for our area and the severe
watch has been dropped. A stray shower or storm will still be
possible in the north and east through the rest of the evening,
but most will see dry and quiet weather through the night. Again
some patchy river valley fog can be anticipated late tonight -
especially if the sky is able to become mostly clear as expected.
This has been detailed in the forecast for the rest of the night.
Some rain cooled temps and lower dewpoints, post-storm, were
added to the north where readings are in the lower 70s and
dewpoints in the low 60s compared to upper 70s and mid 60s
elsewhere. Winds have settled now approaching sunset so that light
and variable conditions will ensue tonight. These updated
forecast grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshened set of zones and HWO - sans SVR watch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2019
With afternoon heating are beginning to see a few showers develop
across far northern KY. Have continued to carry a small chance
for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the far north
and far eastern part of the forecast area which is hinted out
with some of the CAMS, including the ARW and latest HRRR runs. Do
expect any showers and thunderstorms to be short lived in our
area, with some support for overnight convection remaining off to
our north.
On Saturday upper ridging will build over the southeast U.S., and
support for convection in our our area looks very limited. Appears
any convection may likely be tied to terrain over the higher
terrain of the Appalachians. SPC only shows a sliver of our area,
right along the VA border, in the general thunder area for
Saturday. Based on consistency with previous forecast will
continue to carry a small chance of afternoon thunder for most of
the forecast area for Saturday afternoon. Once again any shower
or thunderstorm activity on Saturday will be short lived.
Fairly high dewpoints in the 60s will limit ridge valley
temperature differences the next two nights, but should still see
minimum temperatures a little lower in the valleys, and have
included this in the NDFD. With the building upper ridge we will
see maximum temperatures on Saturday several degrees higher than
today`s highs.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2019
There is good model agreement in the overall mean upper air pattern
through the long term portion of the forecast, with troughing in the
western U.S. and a building upper ridge over the southeast part of
the country. Any ejecting short waves from the mean western trough
will track to our west and north, thus keeping our chance of shower
and thunderstorm activity minimal during the coming work week.
Temperatures will trend to well above normal during the second half
of the forecast period with the building southeast U.S. ridge
dominating our weather.
On Sunday a mid/upper level short wave trough and associated surface
low will shift from the east central Plains into the western Great
Lakes. This will result in a cold front pushing into eastern
Kentucky Sunday night or Monday morning. This front will be shearing
out as it approaches us, and wind fields that would support more
organized convection look to stay to our west before shifting
northeast. While we`ll see thunderstorm chances with this front, the
severe threat is expected to remain to our west and north per the
SPC Day 3 Thunderstorm Outlook.
On Monday the weak front should continue to push east, working its
way across the Appalachians. The shower and storm threat will
continue on Monday mainly in the southeast, with the focus for
significant thunderstorm activity shifting back to the southern
plains with the next system emerging from the southern Rockies. This
system coming out of the Rockies will again track northeast, with
the heavy rain and severe weather threat once again staying to our
west. The associated cold front will also once again approach our
area, but will likely stall to our northwest or north, and then
shift north late in the week as the southeast upper ridge builds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at the
TAF sites. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over far
northeastern and far eastern portions of the forecast area through
the evening, but the chances are too low to include in the only
potential TAF site - SJS - to be affected. Winds will be light and
variable through the night before picking up from the southwest at
5 kts or so during the day Saturday. Again some river valley fog
is expected overnight, but the TAF sites should not be affected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
749 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Confidence is high that rain and thunderstorms will develop later
this evening and overnight along an elevated warm front that will
lift northward across the region. The question remains as to where
exactly this front will become active, and how far north the
heaviest axis of precipitation will be. RAP13 H925 FGEN keeps the
best low-level frontogenesis over northern Iowa and southern
Minnesota, and usually this is a good proxy for where thunderstorms
will train across the region. However, in this case there is a very
strong inversion, and forecast soundings indicate that air parcels
won`t become freely convective until they reach 800mb, so that would
lead one to think that the thunderstorms will develop a bit farther
north, as indicated by the recent runs of the HiRes models, in
particular the 12Z HRRR.
Was considering a flood watch with the heavy precipitation forecast
overnight. PWAT values are on the order of 1.50 inches which is near
record for mid-May, and usually warm fronts have the potential to
over-achieve in terms of precipitation. It only takes a few
thunderstorms tracking over the same area to get 2, 3, and even
greater precipitation amounts. In this case, all the HiRes models
are showing a pretty wide swath of precipitation. This is likely two-
fold. The first is owing to the progressive nature of the northward
advancing warm front, but perhaps the second more important reason
is the steering winds, that is the winds north of the on top of the
inversion, are nearly unidirectional from the southwest, so that
should push the storms to the north quite quickly. This can be seen
in the elevated storms that formed in northeast Nebraska early this
afternoon. For these reasons, we might not have the potential for
the higher-end rainfall amounts, so did not go forward with a flood
watch at this time.
Confidence is lower in the forecast for Saturday. Once the storms
move out Saturday morning, we`ll have overcast skies. The surface
low is forecast to track eastward along I-90, and instability will
build ahead of it so by the late afternoon we could see MUCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg. If this scenario ends up, we could have
a legitimate threat for severe storms in the afternoon and evening.
The elevated mixed layer with this setup is quite impressive, on the
order of 8C/km, and this type of setup leads to fat CAPE soundings,
which results in strong updrafts and severe hail. SPC has lifted the
slight risk of severe weather to account for this. There is still a
slight inversion, so might not have the surface-based potential for
tornadoes, but this could change across southeast Minnesota if we
end up heating the boundary layer above what the models are
forecasting. Continued the previous shift`s trend of warming highs
along I-90. Meanwhile the rest of the forecast area will be cool,
windy, and cloudy with occasional showers and drizzle.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
In the wake of the heavier rainfall through Saturday night, Sunday
will see periods of showers, especially in the morning, but the
intensity will be lighter. Models are now nearly consistent on
the evolution of the upper features, and the same on the surface
low by Sunday morning. This area of low pressure will be near
southeast Minnesota with heavier bands of rain along, and north of
the track of this surface low across west central Wisconsin
Sunday morning. Farther to the west, and southwest, the rainfall
will gradually decrease to scattered showers by the afternoon,
before ending. It will be very cool for the middle of May with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s. There could even be some
record low maximums on Sunday if highs only reach the mid 40s.
The current records for Sunday are 43 degrees (1971) in
Minneapolis/St. Paul, 43 degrees (1971) in St. Cloud, and 49
degrees (1963) in Eau Claire, Wisconsin respectfully. In addition
to the temperatures, a raw north/northeast wind gusting up to 30
to 40 mph, will accompany this cool temperatures. Once this system
departs Sunday night, there is a potential of frost in central
Minnesota where temperatures fall into the 30s. This is dependent
on the amount of wind, and cloud cover, but something to keep in
mind Monday morning.
As with previous discussions, the upper level pattern will remain
very active for the Upper Midwest through next week. There could be
a window of 36-48 hours (dry weather) before the next system ejects
out of the Rockies and into the Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday.
There still remains uncertainties for next week system as to whether
it will be cool (GFS), or warmer (EC/GEM), as the system ejects out
of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. The
differences in the models are related to the strength of the ridge
building across the southeastern CONUS. The 5-day 500MB average mean
heights continue to support a very strong ridge forming in the
southeast CONUS. If models continue to support this stronger
scenario, the system ejecting out of the Rockies will likely move
farther to the west, and allow for warmer air over our region. It
doesn`t mean we won`t get precipitation, it means that instead of
cool and showery, it will be humid and unstable. Due to the
anomalous type of pattern, and the strength of the system, I
wouldn`t be surprised to see severe weather in the Upper Midwest
sometime the middle of next week.
The is still another storm system moving out of the Rockies late
next week. Due to the strong ridge over the southeastern CONUS, this
system will likely be farther to the west than the current models
indicate.
Overall, Sunday will be cool, wet and windy. Monday and early
Tuesday will be dry, and a good chance of precipitation redevelops
by Tuesday night, and into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 749 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
Dry east winds have kept rain and MVFR cigs at bay today, but as
the storm system to our west has begun lifting north across
Nebraska, we`re finally starting to see lower level moisture
expand north, as seen in the rapid expansion of cigs in the 4-6k
foot range. Generally agree with what the HRRR shows in that an
E-W band of showers with embedded Tstorms develops around 3z near
the MN river and lifts northeast, with a N-S line of thunderstorms
coming out of SoDak and moving across the area late tonight.
Behind this line of storms, forecast soundings show the mid/upper
levels really drying out, with copious amounts of moisture trapped
beneath a strong inversion. This will result in IFR or lower
stratus much of the day, but likely very little in the way of
precip outside of drizzle. For MKT, will have to watch how far
north the warm front makes it in MN. Right now, have MKT remaining
north of the warm front, but they could sneak on the other side
briefly in the afternoon, which would result in VFR conditions and
southerly winds there for a time.
KMSP...Showers with occasional TSRA expected to start around 5z,
with a line of storms arriving around 11z. By 14z, precip chances
look minimal outside of drizzle, with a more concentrated area of
rain not arriving until closer to 00z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...IFR/MVFR. -SHRA. Wind NE 20G30 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. MVFR and IFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind E at 15G25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1021 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will moves east of the area during tonight,
followed by building high pressure into Saturday. The high moves
offshore Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. High pres
remains over the Atlantic on Sun, with a cold frontal passage
late Mon night into Tuesday. A weak frontal system may impact
the area during the middle of the weak.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cluster of showers moves from WNW to ESE to along a cold front
which slides across far eastern portions of the CWA towards,
and just after midnight. Therefore by 4-5z the entire region
should by dry. Upped temps slightly from previous due to drier
air lagging behind the front slightly as the RAP analysis shows.
Therefore the much lower humidity / dewpoint readings come in
closer to daybreak. Before then the drier air will move in
gradually. We should get enough of a NW flow right behind the
front to preclude fog, but cannot rule out some patchy fog where
a few showers occurred where the ground is damp. In any event,
skies will clear nicely for the overnight and into Saturday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Deep layered ridging builds across the area Saturday as surface
high pressure builds into the region. The ridge begins to weaken
toward 21Z Saturday and through Saturday night as the next
longwave trough digs into the central plains. A warm front will
be strengthening Saturday night, with the best lift well to the
west and north by late Saturday night. Ridging should hold off
the progression of the front Saturday night and will leave
Saturday night dry at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sly onshore flow keeps much of the cwa cooler than upr temp
potential on Sun. Areas w of the Hudson however should approach
80 or abv. The limiting factor there will be a sea breeze that
will likely arc nwwd thru the day. The models hint at some weak
pockets of energy rotating thru the flow. While these could
produce a stray shwr, the prob and coverage is too low to
include in the fcst attm.
Heights fall Sun ngt thru Mon ahead of a cold front. The fropa
looks to be 6-12z Tue attm. Until then, sct shwrs and tstms are
expected. Timing will dictate any severe threat, but activity
Sun ngt lingering into Mon could limit instability and work over
the atmosphere too much ahead of the approaching h5 trof. If
activity holds off til Mon aftn, some severe is more likely.
Some fog is also possible till the fropa, with the possibility
of a fog bank developing over the ocean which could have a huge
impact on s shore LI weather and temps should it form and hug
the coast.
Tue is a dry fcst with hipres quickly drifting thru.
Thereafter, the ECMWF remains a much drier soln, with the high
suppressing rainfall chances til Thu ngt with a strong shrtwv
rounding the ridge. The GFS is more active, with waa shwrs and
perhaps tstms ahead of this next feature. Pops were limited to
40 percent as a result.
The NBM was used for temps, although highs were raised slightly
abv for Sun.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will pass through the terminals the next few hours
with perhaps a passing shower.
Winds shift to the NW at 5-10 kt behind the front. There could
be a few gusts 15-20kt right behind the cold front. There is
also some uncertainty Saturday afternoon with the timing of the
wind shift to the S-SW and local seabreezes. This could vary by
several hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.
.Sunday night through Monday....MVFR conds possible at times,
with chance of showers/tstms.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...MVFR conds possible at times, with chance of
showers and possibly a tstm.
&&
.MARINE...
The southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front has not
been as strong as expected with both winds and gusts remaining
below 25 kt. There may be occasional gusts approaching 20-25 kt
early this evening as storms and the cold front move into the
forecast waters. Also, ocean seas remained below 5 feet.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight through
Saturday night as high pressure builds into the waters, and
then moves east Saturday night.
Winds and seas are expected to stay blw sca lvls Sun, then sca
conditions are possible Mon into Tue, especially on the ocean. Winds
and seas are likely to fall blw sca lvls Wed and Thu.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Significant rainfall is not expected through midweek.
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through next
Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will be running astronomically high the next couple of
days due to a full moon on the 18th. Minor coastal flooding
will be a possibility for southwest CT shorelines. A Coastal
Flood Statement is in effect for Southern Westchester and
Southern Fairfield shorelines 10PM-1AM tonight.
Another minor coastal flooding event is possible for Saturday
evening during high tide as well for the same area with the
continuation of southerly flow.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/19
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/19
HYDROLOGY...JMC/19
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
EQUIPMENT...//
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.UPDATE...
IR Satellite Imagery this evening showing building low level
cumulus across SE TX and that moisture will be spreading and
expanding north and eastward overnight into Saturday Morning.
Taking a look at regional radar mosaics, convection across the TX
Hill Country which was supposed to be expanding and growing in
coverage is instead, confined to a lone supercell thunderstorm
southwest of San Angelo, Tx. The new 00z NAM output has a good
handle on this attm, but does indicate convection beginning to
develop after midnight somewhere in the San Angelo/Midland area
and vicinity with this convection growing in coverage and
intensity as it moves northeastward into NC TX and much of Central
and Northeast OK by 18z on Saturday. This is quite a bit different
than the latest HRRR and HREF output which suggests that a
strengthening MCS to our west would begin moving into our far
northwest zones as early as Noon on Saturday. The earlier arrival
of storms across our area on Saturday would play a big role in us
not destabilizing as much as if the storms were to begin entering
our northwest zones later in the afternoon or early evening as
a host of other model suites suggest.
For the update this evening, did remove slight chance pop mention
after midnight across our extreme west as just don`t see anything
approaching our far western counties through sunrise in the
morning, even if we see increased coverage across far West Texas
later tonight. Temperatures are in the ballpark so made no changes
in this department.
Given the uncertainty in timing of the convection addressed
above, chose not to issue a Lake Wind Advisory with this update
but a later arrival of storms would allow for even more mixing
down of stronger winds in the lower levels with Lake Wind Advisory
likely being met, at least across our western half for Sat.
Update out shortly...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
AVIATION...
Scattered cu field across our airspace this afternoon affecting
all terminal locations with the exception of the ELD and MLU
terminals. This is the leading edge of low level moisture return
that will turn into MVFR ceilings late tonight. A tight pressure
gradient will result in SSE winds overnight ranging from near 5kts
across NE LA to near 12kts at the TYR terminal. With sufficient
mixing in the 14z-16z timeframe on Saturday, look for these winds
to increase with sustained SSE winds near 12-18kts with gusts
upwards of 30kts across our NE TX terminal locations. Look for
MVFR ceilings by late morning into the afternoon on Saturday to
either scatter out across our eastern terminals or lift to near
35hdft to 45hdft across our western terminals.
Did introduce VCTS at the TYR/TXK terminals with this 00z TAF
package at 18/21z with additional mentions further east and later
in time with our remaining terminal locations. This will be
addressed with the 06z TAF package later tonight.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 85 70 87 / 0 40 60 20
MLU 67 86 72 86 / 0 40 70 60
DEQ 67 82 67 85 / 10 60 70 20
TXK 67 83 69 86 / 10 50 70 20
ELD 65 86 70 86 / 0 40 70 30
TYR 69 84 70 86 / 10 70 70 10
GGG 69 85 70 87 / 10 50 70 20
LFK 69 87 70 87 / 10 50 50 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
13/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions and gusty south and southeast winds will continue
across West Central Texas terminals into the early morning hours.
However, most models suggest a squall line of storms to develop
and sweep across the area overnight and into sunrise Saturday
morning. Once the timing becomes a little more certain, amendments
will be made to pin down the timing. Otherwise, MVFR cigs may
briefly reach the southern terminals before the convection
arrives, with all areas seeing improving conditions once the
storms exit to the east.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
..Strong to severe storms expected tonight...
Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated west of the area and
extended from near Lubbock, southwest to near Midland and then just
west of a Ft Stockton. Visible satellite imagery as of 2 PM shows
some enhanced cumulus developing just east of the dryline over Pecos
county. Hi resolution models continue to show some isolated storms
developing over this region between 3 PM and 6 PM, due to strong
surface heating and a weakening CAP along the dryline. Most of the
hi-res models weaken the storms through early evening as they
encounter a stronger capping inversion to the east. The latest HRRR
is the most bullish and brings storms into western portions of the
Northern Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley through 8 PM,
before weakening. If storms develop, they will likely become severe,
given MLCAPES around 3500 J/Kg and deep layer shear between 30 and
40 Kt. The main hazards should storms develop, would be large hail
in excess of 2 inches and possibly an isolated tornado.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase along the dryline to our west
by mid to late evening as lift increases with the approach of an
upper level trough and wind fields strengthen aloft. Models
generally agree that storms will increase in coverage across western
portions of the forecast area around midnight, then move east as a
line or broken line of storms through the overnight hours into early
Saturday morning. Storms may initially be discrete across western
sections, with large hail (in excess of 2 inches) possible, along
with isolated tornadoes. The severe threat will gradually transition
into a damaging wind hazard across eastern sections by early
Saturday morning. In addition, very heavy rainfall will accompany
some of the storms, which may result in localized flash flooding
given the already moist soils from recent rains.
Thunderstorms are expected to end across eastern sections by late
morning or early afternoon as a Pacific front moves through,
bringing drier air and gusty southwest to west winds by afternoon.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday)
The upper level low responsible for our severe weather Friday
night/Saturday morning will lift off into the Great Lakes region
by Sunday morning. Warm and dry conditions will prevail during the
afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The next upper level low pressure system will set up across the
Great Basin by Monday. Meanwhile, the dry line will sharpen near
or along our western CWA border during the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dry line by Monday
afternoon and then spread eastward across our area Monday evening
and into Tuesday morning. Instability/shear parameters still look
favorable for another bout of severe weather, and we will
continue to monitor this portion of the forecast closely.
Otherwise, expect highs on Monday in the mid 80s under mostly
cloudy skies. Dry line/Pacific front sweeps across the region
Tuesday afternoon brining rain chances to an end. Expect highs
again in the 80s.
Wednesday and beyond, our area will be positioned between an
upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and a broad upper
trough over the western U.S. This will maintain southwesterly flow
aloft across west Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon depending on the position of the dry line
and subtle disturbances aloft in the southwesterly flow. Thus, will
keep a slight chance of PoPs going in the extended forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 83 57 88 / 80 60 0 0
San Angelo 67 85 56 90 / 80 40 0 0
Junction 71 85 60 92 / 70 70 0 0
Brownwood 69 82 56 88 / 80 80 0 0
Sweetwater 65 83 57 87 / 70 30 0 0
Ozona 67 85 56 89 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
07/99/99
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visit...
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