Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/15/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will away from the region overnight
with the spotty light rain and mountain snow showers ending,
followed by partial clearing for some areas. As this system finally
moves away, some breaks of sunshine are expected on Wednesday, along
with a minor improvement in temperatures. However, some additional
showers are possible for late Wednesday afternoon through Friday as
fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. Drier weather
with more seasonable temperatures may return for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM EDT..Cut-off low continues to drift
east/northeast of the region over upstate VT and NH based on the
latest RAP and water vapor imagery. Precipitation associated
with the cyclonic vorticity advection with the cut-off has
started to shift south and east of the Capital Region with just
a few showers north and west over the southern Dacks. POPs in
the likely to low categorical range were kept in for a few more
hours from Albany south and east before tapering to scattered
showers with a few snow showers especially over the southern
Greens and northern Berkshires above 2500 ft.
The showers should diminish between midnight and 3 AM across
the entire region based on the latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest, and
then the skies could become partly cloudy especially north and
west of the Capital Region. If temps drop into the mid 30s, then
some patchy or isolated frost could be possible with lows
mainly in the mid to upper 30s across most of the region. A few
lower 30s are possible across the southern Adirondack/southern
Greens.
Patchy fog is more likely, with a very moist boundary layer
remaining in place from recent rainfall and persistent
clouds, if breaks in the clouds develop, areas of fog will most
likely form and may limit extent of frost formation, but trends
will need to be watched closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, weak shortwave ridging should translate
east/southeast across the region during the morning hours, ahead
of the next upper level shortwave approaching from the Great
Lakes region. This should allow for at least some breaks in the
clouds through the morning hours. However, as the upper level
system approaches later in the day, some forcing combined with
low level instability should lead to isolated to scattered rain
showers to form, with best chances across western areas. Can not
rule out isolated thunder, especially across the SE Catskills
and mid Hudson Valley region where low level instability is
slightly greater. If any taller showers develop, they could
contain small hail and perhaps gusty winds.
Wednesday night, scattered showers will persist well into the
evening hours as the aforementioned upper level disturbance
crosses the region. Still could be isolated thunder early across
the mid Hudson Valley. Showers should decrease in coverage later
at night, with some clearing possible. Lows mainly in the upper
30s to lower/mid 40s.
Thursday-Thursday night, yet another upper level impulse may
bring some showers to the region Thursday morning, before weak
ridging builds across Thursday afternoon and evening. This
should reduce shower chances, although still can not rule out
isolated afternoon showers/sprinkles due to lingering cold air
aloft and some instability. This possibility would be greatest
across higher elevations. Later Thursday night, increasing
isentropic lift ahead of the next fast moving impulse may bring
some showers to the region toward daybreak Friday. Highs
Thursday should be milder than recent days, reaching the 60s
for most valley areas, with 50s across higher elevations. Lows
Thursday night mainly in the 40s.
Friday, occluded frontal system looks to pass across the region
during the day, bringing showers or perhaps a period of steady
rain to the region. Some weak elevated instability could allow
for a few rumbles of thunder across central and southern areas.
High temperatures for Friday are tricky and highly dependent on
exact timing of when showers pass through and end. If showers
move through more quickly, a late day spike in temps could allow
for some 60s to lower 70s in valley areas, but if showers pass
through during the middle of the day and persist, max temps may
be held in the 50s to lower 60s. Have utilized blended approach
at this time, with mainly lower/mid 60s for lower elevations,
and 50s across higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Seems we are trending toward a drier forecast period as a global
ensemble forecasts (GFS, FV3, ECWMF, GGEM) are all suggesting the
wave that departs off the New England coast will push the frontal
zone further south toward the I80 corridor and remain quasi-
stationary through this weekend. This suggests our region will be
on the north side and keep our weather dry and close to seasonable
temperatures.
Later Sunday into Monday, confidence diminishes as models suggest a
break down of the blocked pattern across Canada as deepening central
Plains storm takes shape. Warm frontal zone, the aforementioned
frontal zone near I80, begins to lift northward. Does some showers
develop upstream and track along the frontal zone as suggested by
the ECMWF, GFS and GGEM or delay the onset of precipitation per the
FV3. For consistency, we will retain the slight chance PoPs for
areas along and north of I90 later Sunday then increase PoPs into
the chance/scattered category into Monday. The FV3 appears to be in
the middle of the other operational guidance with the warm front
becoming stuck across upstate New York (GGEM too aggressive and the
operational GFS too slow). Temperature forecast will be equally
challenging as we will favor a blended approach by the GFS/ECMWF MOS
values with 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low will slowly move away from the region tonight
with the light rain diminishing. Weak ridging aloft will build
in tomorrow briefly before another disturbance brings some
scattered showers into the region late in the afternoon into the
night-time period.
MVFR conditions continue at most of the TAF sites early this
evening. KGFL has some light rain with VFR cigs but they should
lower to MVFR levels, and a TEMPO group was used. KPOU has a cig
at 1000 ft AGL and we placed some IFR conditions there until
midnight. We also believe some IFR cigs could form at KPSF
tonight, as the light rain moves into that location between
01Z-05Z/WED.
The next question is if any clearing occurs between 08Z-12Z/WED
with the upper low moving away. It is tricky with the low-level
moisture still in place. We placed some patchy MVFR mist in at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU with vsbys in the 3-5SM with some MVFR stratus,
as our confidence was not great enough to go with IFR mist.
MVFR and spotty IFR conditions at TAF sites should improve to
VFR levels in the late morning between 12Z-16Z with the weak
ridging in place.
Expect cigs in the 4-6 kft AGL range ahead of the next short-
wave by 20Z-22Z with some showers getting close to KGFL where a
VCSH was added.
The winds will be north/northwest at 5 kts or less tonight, and
may become overnight. Expect northwest winds of 7-12 kts in the
late morning into the early/mid afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Damp and cool conditions will prevail tonight. Some slight
drying is possible Wednesday morning, before additional
scattered showers develop late in the day through Thursday
morning. Another threat for widespread showers is possible for
Friday.
RH values will climb to 90-100 percent tonight and again
Wednesday night, with areas of dew formation likely. Wednesday
afternoon RH values should fall to 40-60 percent.
Northeast to north winds will become northwest at 5-10 mph
tonight. Winds will become west to northwest Wednesday and
increase to 5-15 mph by afternoon, with some gusts of 20-25 mph
possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Upper level low will move across the region tonight. Some
additional rain will occur through this evening, with most
amounts remaining below one quarter of an inch. The recent
rainfall has caused some minor rises on rivers and streams, but
this additional rainfall won`t be enough to have a big impact.
As a result, streams and rivers should start to fall for
tonight and no flooding is anticipated.
After a brief break in the weather early in the day on
Wednesday, some additional showers are possible for late
Wednesday through at least Friday. Rainfall generally will be
spotty and fairly light in intensity. This rainfall shouldn`t
have a big hydrologic impact on the region and drier weather is
expected over the weekend.
Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
844 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019
Current radar pictures indicated the only convective showers
remaining are over the Cheyenne and Palmer ridges at this time.
They are decreasing. Models keep the upper ridge over the CWA
tonight and Wednesday. Models seem to show a little increase in
the precipitable water amounts for late day Wednesday compared to
today`s values. Wednesday`s convection should be similar to
today`s. Will make a few cosmetic changes to the grids this
update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019
KFTG radar shows isolated showers and storms continuing to move
across the high country and set up over the Cheyenne Ridge with
the moisture plume over southern Wyoming/northern Colorado.
Integrated precipitable water trends indicate PW values have
dropped 0.25 inched in 12 hours as the airmass mixed out. Upstream
stations indicate lower dew points so trending moisture and
convection toward the HRRR because the RAP seems to be keeping the
dewpoints too high. Locations near the Kansas border will see
more moisture overnight into Wednesday with southeast Gulf flow.
Looking into Wednesday, the 700 mb temperatures will again be 1 to 3
degrees warmer, leading to another warm Spring day. High
temperatures on the plains should be in the mid 70s to 80s,
remaining several degrees above normal. Late in the day, there will
be isolated high based thunderstorms over the plains with less
coverage than today due to lower moisture availability.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019
Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as downslope,
subsident flow will increase over the CWA. Denver will reach the
mid 80s with a few areas reaching 90 degrees across the far
eastern plains. Convective temperatures will be reached mainly
over the mountains with isolated showers and storms developing in
the afternoon. With very dry air throughout the troposphere,
these showers will produce brief, gusty winds and very little
wetting rainfall.
On Friday, a strong trough will move over Colorado with
cyclogenesis developing over the South Platte River Valley.
Increased moisture along with ascent from the left exit region of
a mid to upper level jet will create more widespread showers and
storms over the Cheyenne Ridge and northern mountains. North or
northeast flow on the north side of the surface low pressure will
have better moisture associated with it which will allow for
instability to form during the afternoon. With surface to 500mb
shear around 50 knots near the Cheyenne Ridge, there is potential
for a couple marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty
winds. On Friday night, a cold front will sweep through the
eastern plains of Colorado with showers and weak storms behind the
front extending as far south as the Palmer Divide.
Models are now coming into better agreement that a secondary,
stronger shortwave trough will move out of New Mexico onto the
southern plains on Saturday. It appears the bulk of the
precipitation from this system will end up being east of Colorado
but lingering cold air in the mid to upper levels will allow for
steep lapse rates and showers and storms should form over the
mountains and foothills during the afternoon and evening. Ridging
will move over Colorado on Sunday and should confine any chance
for precipitation to the mountains. Global models indicate a
vigorous trough will move over the Desert Southwest on Monday
potentially bringing a good chance of showers and storms to
Colorado Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 840 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019
Earlier this afternoon and evening there were several outflow
boundaries playing havoc with the TAF`s winds. Just recently a
boundary came up from the south and started the normal drainage
patterns at DIA a bit earlier than normal. However, there is
boundary moving southward right now. They are colliding over the
Adams/Weld county border currently. It appears the northerly
boundary will make it to DIA, so it looks like the normal drainage
winds won`t come back until about 05Z? There should be no ceiling
issues.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE........RJK
SHORT TERM....Sullivan
LONG TERM.....Danielson
AVIATION......RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1157 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool weather pattern will gradually moderate
through the end of the week, with above normal temperatures
expected this weekend. Scattered showers will continue to
threaten daily through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Heights aloft will continue to rise slowly as the upper low near
BTV continues to crawl NEWD toward the Canadian Maritimes
tomorrow. A weak ridge aloft will provide for a mainly dry
overnight. We have a Frost Advisory for our Warren county where
they have officially entered the growing season. Skies are
scattering out so the confidence in a widespread frost is high.
Lows will range from near freezing over the north to low and
mid 40s over the SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high on Wed will bring a dry start to the day, but
a shortwave will slide across the Great Lakes for the afternoon
and overnight, bringing mention of showers back into the
forecast. Best prob for rain will be Wed night. Temps begin to
recover, topping out in the 60s, which is less than 10F below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic model and ensemble guidance continue to show
above normal forecast spread with respect to the downstream
northeastern U.S./Mid-Atlantic flow through the weekend, as a
series of potent Canadian upper systems progress within an
energetic northern stream. These upper systems and surface
system reflections have trended stronger into the weekend. This
puts central PA near the low level baroclinic/frontal zone
separating cooler cyclonic flow aloft (to the north) and warmer
upper ridging (to the south). The more pronounced warm-up with
above normal temps may have to wait until next week.
Confidence in the precipitation pattern also remains low due to
uncertainty associated with shortwave disturbances embedded in
the mean flow aloft. That said, there appears to be a decent
rain signal on Friday with t-storms possible on the southwest
periphery of the cyclonic/northwest flow aloft. Convection may
modulate the sfc boundary position and could lead to tight
temperature gradients or large differences from southwest to
northeast. The unsettled precip pattern shows no signs of
trending drying out with another system likely arriving early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR cigs and vsbys are dominating with only MVFR cigs at IPT. Current IR
shows clouds weakening and dissipating as low moves eastward. This clearing
will continue overnight at most TAF sites.
However, IFR cigs are possible at BFD due to the clearing and weak
upslope flow in the mtns. Latest HRRR shows cigs possible below
1kft and BUFKIT soundings support this possibility. So have
added IFR cigs from 09Z to 12Z Wed. These will lift and
dissipate after the inversion breaks and the west winds mix down
with speeds of 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. A shortwave
will slide across the Great Lakes for the afternoon and
overnight, bringing mention of showers back into the forecast.
Best prob for rain will be Wednesday night, with ceiling
restrictions confined mainly to NW areas.
.Outlook...
Wed...Patchy AM fog/frost possible NW Mtns.
Thu...Early AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.
Fri...No sig wx expected.
Sat...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Isolated PM tsra impacts
possible.
Sun...Showers possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019
.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019
Agitated cu field from far southeast NE through north central MO
starting to show signs of glaciation in day cloud phase RGB, and
while robust deep convection has struggled to develop thus far, it
appears forcing from the shortwave trough has been enough to break
the cap and allow CI to occur. Updrafts are moving into higher
instability (RAP analyzed 2000+ J/kg), but dry air entraining into
the developing updrafts and a lack of super-supportive deep layer
shear may keep most storms sub-severe even as storm coverage
increases. May be looking at a few hour window of scattered storms
capable of producing small hail or a brief damaging wind gust,
mainly along and east of a line from STJ to Sedalia, beginning
within the next 30 mins.
&&
.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019
Today`s setup for afternoon and evening convection is a complex
situation as there is not strong forcing in the lower or upper
levels. This pattern is more reminiscent of a June/July pattern with
NW flow aloft and then surface heating with a weak surface boundary
running W-E over the area. The uncertainty really comes into play on
the location of where modified cumulus and eventual thunderstorms
will form up. CAMs were going with northern Missouri in earlier runs
but the HRRR has started to back off on that and forms storms along
the boundary after sunset. Performing a current analysis of the
surface observations, satellite, and SPC Mesoanalysis page we feel
the most likely initiation point would be over northwest Missouri
down into the Lake of the Ozarks late this afternoon. This would be
more in line with the Nam 3km solution (12z and newest 18z run).
Dewpoints are expected to rise through sunset and this should help
initiate what is needed at the surface for convective temperatures
as we are already into the low 80s in places. A weak mid level
shortwave is observable on RAP 700hPa temperatures will move into
northern Missouri late this afternoon which may be the trigger to
weaken the capping inversion. This area is also co-located with the
highest area of surface convergence which will help develop the
cumulus. If all this comes together and the cap does break storms
should form late this afternoon (5-6pm)over northwest Missouri and
then slowly propagate to the SE firing along the warm frontal
boundary after sunset if enough convergence is still there. The
severe potential will be there at that time with MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and
steep mid level lapse rates. The main threats with these storms will
be damaging winds with large hail also being a possibility. This
window is very small though as by 8-9pm all the instability will
begin to dissipate.
Wednesday and Thursday look to be rather quite precipitation wise
with a strong mid and upper level ridge moving into the area. This
ridge and subsequent strong southerly flow will cause WAA in the low
levels and bring the hottest day of the year on Thursday with highs
near 90s degrees and heat index values into the 90s. This ridge will
hold up one more day on Friday keeping us precip free and hot and
humid before the faucet turns back on Saturday.
Saturday through next Tuesday look very active as a deep shortwave
trough pushes into the southern plains with southwest flow
persisting into the week. The main activity looks to be on Saturday
and Tuesday with long range guidance. Severe weather looks possible
late Saturday afternoon when the shear and instability match up, but
the main threat looks to be high rates of precipitation and
potential flooding as that boundary moves through slowly. GFS
indicates Tuesday could be a possible severe weather pattern, but
the ECMWF is quite a bit different so PoPs remain low until that
uncertainty is resolved.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. A few isolated storms
may develop in the vicinity of KSTJ, but most thunderstorm
activity should remain east of the terminals. Light winds will
become variable in direction overnight, and a brief period of
patchy fog is possible around sunrise.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...Laflin
Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Main updates are to remove thunder wording for this evening over
land areas and to also increase sky cover for tonight. Weak
frontal boundary currently across the Treasure Coast will continue
to push south through tonight. Behind the boundary some drier air
will filter into the area, especially from Orlando to Titusville
northward. Evidence of this can already be seen with dewpoints in
the mid 60s at many locations as of 8 pm. For locations farther
south, where some higher moisture lingers, will keep in a slight
showers chance overnight as the HRRR and local WRF are trying to
develop some showers overnight...although confidence is pretty
low. Lows have been bumped a degree or two with all the cloud
cover in place, but it will still be the "coolest" night in quite
some time. Mid to upper 60s can be expected across the interior
and the Volusia Coast into northern Brevard (maybe some low 60s
across northern Lake and NW Volusia). Locations along the coast
from Melbourne southward will see temperatures in the upper 60s to
near 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Extensive cloudiness associated with a frontal boundary pushing
through central and south Florida will stick around through
tonight, but conditions are expected to remain VFR. Models are not
showing any ceiling restrictions tonight, but due to the
proximity of the front still could see few020/sct020 from MCO-TIX
southward. VFR continuing on Wednesday with only mentionable
shower/storm chances confined to the VRB-FPR-SUA vicinity.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight (previous)...The surface frontal boundary will move south
across the waters overnight with onshore winds behind the boundary
around 10-15 knots for the nrn/central waters. Seas mainly 2 ft
near shore to around 3 ft offshore. Could see a few showers and
storms overnight mainly south of Cape Canaveral.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 0 10
MLB 70 83 69 84 / 20 10 0 10
VRB 71 83 69 84 / 20 30 10 10
LEE 66 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 67 86 66 88 / 10 10 0 10
ORL 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 0 10
FPR 69 84 68 84 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Combs/Negron
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
820 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019
Per RAP analysis, Upper Michigan sits between sfc high pressure over
southern Lake Michigan and points south and sfc low pressure near
James Bay. A trough extends west-southwestward through northern MN,
but associated cloud cover terminates near the ND/MN border at
current. Here, widespread diurnal cumulus have prevailed across all
but the northwest and far eastern UP where lake breezes have
contributed to stability.
High temperatures have reached 70 degrees across much of the
interior today with ample convective mixing and winds have been
relatively light except on the Keweenaw Peninsula where some 30 mph
gusts have been observed. As the trough begins to slide across the
area tonight, some light shower activity will be possible,
translating from west to east. However, with limited moisture and
weak forcing, most high resolution models indicate that coverage and
intensity will be diminishing as the trough and associated diffuse
cold front cross the region.
Lowered low temps out west tonight by a couple degrees to near 40
with clouds clearing earlier than initially expected. There are some
indications in high-res models and RAP/NAM soundings that
onshore/upslope drizzle is possible in Marquette/Alger Counties
tomorrow morning after sunrise. Given the NAM`s propensity to overdo
low level moisture, POPs are capped at slight chance. Otherwise,
expect decreasing clouds and a cooler day tomorrow with northerly
flow keeping highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s near Lake Superior
and mid to upper 60s inland. Could be some breeziness over the east
with gusts as high as 20 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019
There will be an upper level trough off the west coast and one in
the Canadian Maritimes 00z Thu with a ridge across the plains. A
shortwave will top the ridge over the Canadian Prairies and affect
the upper Great Lakes late Wed night. The west coast trough moves
into the Rockies on Fri with the ridge getting pinched off, but
staying over the Mississippi valley. Nam shows some deeper moisture
and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving into the area on Thu
before both move out Thu night. Overall, did not make too many
changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
Rockies and a ridge over the ern U.S. 12z Sat. This trough moves
into the plains 12z Sun and then into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon
before another trough moves onto the west coast. The west coast
trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue. Still looks cold and wet for
this forecast period as we stay in the north side of a stalled out
front to the south of us.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019
Despite a frontal boundary traversing through this evening, VFR
conditions look to prevail at the three terminals. However, behind
the front, northerly winds off of the lake could allow for a LL
cloud deck to build in, accompanied by drizzle at KSAW. With much
drier air filtering in from the west, KIWD and KCMX look to clear
out fairly quickly, but it`s not entirely out of the question that
LL moisture could also pool in and impact these two terminals in
the morning as well. Around midday tomorrow, look for clearing
skies at all three terminals.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019
Winds will remain below 20 knots through most of this week, with the
best chance for 20-25 knot winds Thursday morning. There will be a
few fronts passing along the lake bringing light showers. On Sunday,
a low pressure system will approach Lake Superior, again increasing
winds towards 20 to 30 knots. However, there is significant
uncertainty with the evolution of the low at this time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KCW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...KCW