Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/15/19


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will away from the region overnight with the spotty light rain and mountain snow showers ending, followed by partial clearing for some areas. As this system finally moves away, some breaks of sunshine are expected on Wednesday, along with a minor improvement in temperatures. However, some additional showers are possible for late Wednesday afternoon through Friday as fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. Drier weather with more seasonable temperatures may return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 1005 PM EDT..Cut-off low continues to drift east/northeast of the region over upstate VT and NH based on the latest RAP and water vapor imagery. Precipitation associated with the cyclonic vorticity advection with the cut-off has started to shift south and east of the Capital Region with just a few showers north and west over the southern Dacks. POPs in the likely to low categorical range were kept in for a few more hours from Albany south and east before tapering to scattered showers with a few snow showers especially over the southern Greens and northern Berkshires above 2500 ft. The showers should diminish between midnight and 3 AM across the entire region based on the latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest, and then the skies could become partly cloudy especially north and west of the Capital Region. If temps drop into the mid 30s, then some patchy or isolated frost could be possible with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s across most of the region. A few lower 30s are possible across the southern Adirondack/southern Greens. Patchy fog is more likely, with a very moist boundary layer remaining in place from recent rainfall and persistent clouds, if breaks in the clouds develop, areas of fog will most likely form and may limit extent of frost formation, but trends will need to be watched closely. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday, weak shortwave ridging should translate east/southeast across the region during the morning hours, ahead of the next upper level shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes region. This should allow for at least some breaks in the clouds through the morning hours. However, as the upper level system approaches later in the day, some forcing combined with low level instability should lead to isolated to scattered rain showers to form, with best chances across western areas. Can not rule out isolated thunder, especially across the SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region where low level instability is slightly greater. If any taller showers develop, they could contain small hail and perhaps gusty winds. Wednesday night, scattered showers will persist well into the evening hours as the aforementioned upper level disturbance crosses the region. Still could be isolated thunder early across the mid Hudson Valley. Showers should decrease in coverage later at night, with some clearing possible. Lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s. Thursday-Thursday night, yet another upper level impulse may bring some showers to the region Thursday morning, before weak ridging builds across Thursday afternoon and evening. This should reduce shower chances, although still can not rule out isolated afternoon showers/sprinkles due to lingering cold air aloft and some instability. This possibility would be greatest across higher elevations. Later Thursday night, increasing isentropic lift ahead of the next fast moving impulse may bring some showers to the region toward daybreak Friday. Highs Thursday should be milder than recent days, reaching the 60s for most valley areas, with 50s across higher elevations. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 40s. Friday, occluded frontal system looks to pass across the region during the day, bringing showers or perhaps a period of steady rain to the region. Some weak elevated instability could allow for a few rumbles of thunder across central and southern areas. High temperatures for Friday are tricky and highly dependent on exact timing of when showers pass through and end. If showers move through more quickly, a late day spike in temps could allow for some 60s to lower 70s in valley areas, but if showers pass through during the middle of the day and persist, max temps may be held in the 50s to lower 60s. Have utilized blended approach at this time, with mainly lower/mid 60s for lower elevations, and 50s across higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Seems we are trending toward a drier forecast period as a global ensemble forecasts (GFS, FV3, ECWMF, GGEM) are all suggesting the wave that departs off the New England coast will push the frontal zone further south toward the I80 corridor and remain quasi- stationary through this weekend. This suggests our region will be on the north side and keep our weather dry and close to seasonable temperatures. Later Sunday into Monday, confidence diminishes as models suggest a break down of the blocked pattern across Canada as deepening central Plains storm takes shape. Warm frontal zone, the aforementioned frontal zone near I80, begins to lift northward. Does some showers develop upstream and track along the frontal zone as suggested by the ECMWF, GFS and GGEM or delay the onset of precipitation per the FV3. For consistency, we will retain the slight chance PoPs for areas along and north of I90 later Sunday then increase PoPs into the chance/scattered category into Monday. The FV3 appears to be in the middle of the other operational guidance with the warm front becoming stuck across upstate New York (GGEM too aggressive and the operational GFS too slow). Temperature forecast will be equally challenging as we will favor a blended approach by the GFS/ECMWF MOS values with 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level low will slowly move away from the region tonight with the light rain diminishing. Weak ridging aloft will build in tomorrow briefly before another disturbance brings some scattered showers into the region late in the afternoon into the night-time period. MVFR conditions continue at most of the TAF sites early this evening. KGFL has some light rain with VFR cigs but they should lower to MVFR levels, and a TEMPO group was used. KPOU has a cig at 1000 ft AGL and we placed some IFR conditions there until midnight. We also believe some IFR cigs could form at KPSF tonight, as the light rain moves into that location between 01Z-05Z/WED. The next question is if any clearing occurs between 08Z-12Z/WED with the upper low moving away. It is tricky with the low-level moisture still in place. We placed some patchy MVFR mist in at KGFL/KALB/KPOU with vsbys in the 3-5SM with some MVFR stratus, as our confidence was not great enough to go with IFR mist. MVFR and spotty IFR conditions at TAF sites should improve to VFR levels in the late morning between 12Z-16Z with the weak ridging in place. Expect cigs in the 4-6 kft AGL range ahead of the next short- wave by 20Z-22Z with some showers getting close to KGFL where a VCSH was added. The winds will be north/northwest at 5 kts or less tonight, and may become overnight. Expect northwest winds of 7-12 kts in the late morning into the early/mid afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Damp and cool conditions will prevail tonight. Some slight drying is possible Wednesday morning, before additional scattered showers develop late in the day through Thursday morning. Another threat for widespread showers is possible for Friday. RH values will climb to 90-100 percent tonight and again Wednesday night, with areas of dew formation likely. Wednesday afternoon RH values should fall to 40-60 percent. Northeast to north winds will become northwest at 5-10 mph tonight. Winds will become west to northwest Wednesday and increase to 5-15 mph by afternoon, with some gusts of 20-25 mph possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Upper level low will move across the region tonight. Some additional rain will occur through this evening, with most amounts remaining below one quarter of an inch. The recent rainfall has caused some minor rises on rivers and streams, but this additional rainfall won`t be enough to have a big impact. As a result, streams and rivers should start to fall for tonight and no flooding is anticipated. After a brief break in the weather early in the day on Wednesday, some additional showers are possible for late Wednesday through at least Friday. Rainfall generally will be spotty and fairly light in intensity. This rainfall shouldn`t have a big hydrologic impact on the region and drier weather is expected over the weekend. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
844 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019 Current radar pictures indicated the only convective showers remaining are over the Cheyenne and Palmer ridges at this time. They are decreasing. Models keep the upper ridge over the CWA tonight and Wednesday. Models seem to show a little increase in the precipitable water amounts for late day Wednesday compared to today`s values. Wednesday`s convection should be similar to today`s. Will make a few cosmetic changes to the grids this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019 KFTG radar shows isolated showers and storms continuing to move across the high country and set up over the Cheyenne Ridge with the moisture plume over southern Wyoming/northern Colorado. Integrated precipitable water trends indicate PW values have dropped 0.25 inched in 12 hours as the airmass mixed out. Upstream stations indicate lower dew points so trending moisture and convection toward the HRRR because the RAP seems to be keeping the dewpoints too high. Locations near the Kansas border will see more moisture overnight into Wednesday with southeast Gulf flow. Looking into Wednesday, the 700 mb temperatures will again be 1 to 3 degrees warmer, leading to another warm Spring day. High temperatures on the plains should be in the mid 70s to 80s, remaining several degrees above normal. Late in the day, there will be isolated high based thunderstorms over the plains with less coverage than today due to lower moisture availability. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019 Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as downslope, subsident flow will increase over the CWA. Denver will reach the mid 80s with a few areas reaching 90 degrees across the far eastern plains. Convective temperatures will be reached mainly over the mountains with isolated showers and storms developing in the afternoon. With very dry air throughout the troposphere, these showers will produce brief, gusty winds and very little wetting rainfall. On Friday, a strong trough will move over Colorado with cyclogenesis developing over the South Platte River Valley. Increased moisture along with ascent from the left exit region of a mid to upper level jet will create more widespread showers and storms over the Cheyenne Ridge and northern mountains. North or northeast flow on the north side of the surface low pressure will have better moisture associated with it which will allow for instability to form during the afternoon. With surface to 500mb shear around 50 knots near the Cheyenne Ridge, there is potential for a couple marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds. On Friday night, a cold front will sweep through the eastern plains of Colorado with showers and weak storms behind the front extending as far south as the Palmer Divide. Models are now coming into better agreement that a secondary, stronger shortwave trough will move out of New Mexico onto the southern plains on Saturday. It appears the bulk of the precipitation from this system will end up being east of Colorado but lingering cold air in the mid to upper levels will allow for steep lapse rates and showers and storms should form over the mountains and foothills during the afternoon and evening. Ridging will move over Colorado on Sunday and should confine any chance for precipitation to the mountains. Global models indicate a vigorous trough will move over the Desert Southwest on Monday potentially bringing a good chance of showers and storms to Colorado Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 840 PM MDT Tue May 14 2019 Earlier this afternoon and evening there were several outflow boundaries playing havoc with the TAF`s winds. Just recently a boundary came up from the south and started the normal drainage patterns at DIA a bit earlier than normal. However, there is boundary moving southward right now. They are colliding over the Adams/Weld county border currently. It appears the northerly boundary will make it to DIA, so it looks like the normal drainage winds won`t come back until about 05Z? There should be no ceiling issues. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE........RJK SHORT TERM....Sullivan LONG TERM.....Danielson AVIATION......RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1157 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cool weather pattern will gradually moderate through the end of the week, with above normal temperatures expected this weekend. Scattered showers will continue to threaten daily through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Heights aloft will continue to rise slowly as the upper low near BTV continues to crawl NEWD toward the Canadian Maritimes tomorrow. A weak ridge aloft will provide for a mainly dry overnight. We have a Frost Advisory for our Warren county where they have officially entered the growing season. Skies are scattering out so the confidence in a widespread frost is high. Lows will range from near freezing over the north to low and mid 40s over the SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Weak surface high on Wed will bring a dry start to the day, but a shortwave will slide across the Great Lakes for the afternoon and overnight, bringing mention of showers back into the forecast. Best prob for rain will be Wed night. Temps begin to recover, topping out in the 60s, which is less than 10F below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deterministic model and ensemble guidance continue to show above normal forecast spread with respect to the downstream northeastern U.S./Mid-Atlantic flow through the weekend, as a series of potent Canadian upper systems progress within an energetic northern stream. These upper systems and surface system reflections have trended stronger into the weekend. This puts central PA near the low level baroclinic/frontal zone separating cooler cyclonic flow aloft (to the north) and warmer upper ridging (to the south). The more pronounced warm-up with above normal temps may have to wait until next week. Confidence in the precipitation pattern also remains low due to uncertainty associated with shortwave disturbances embedded in the mean flow aloft. That said, there appears to be a decent rain signal on Friday with t-storms possible on the southwest periphery of the cyclonic/northwest flow aloft. Convection may modulate the sfc boundary position and could lead to tight temperature gradients or large differences from southwest to northeast. The unsettled precip pattern shows no signs of trending drying out with another system likely arriving early next week. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR cigs and vsbys are dominating with only MVFR cigs at IPT. Current IR shows clouds weakening and dissipating as low moves eastward. This clearing will continue overnight at most TAF sites. However, IFR cigs are possible at BFD due to the clearing and weak upslope flow in the mtns. Latest HRRR shows cigs possible below 1kft and BUFKIT soundings support this possibility. So have added IFR cigs from 09Z to 12Z Wed. These will lift and dissipate after the inversion breaks and the west winds mix down with speeds of 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. A shortwave will slide across the Great Lakes for the afternoon and overnight, bringing mention of showers back into the forecast. Best prob for rain will be Wednesday night, with ceiling restrictions confined mainly to NW areas. .Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog/frost possible NW Mtns. Thu...Early AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Isolated PM tsra impacts possible. Sun...Showers possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019 .Mesoscale Discussion... Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019 Agitated cu field from far southeast NE through north central MO starting to show signs of glaciation in day cloud phase RGB, and while robust deep convection has struggled to develop thus far, it appears forcing from the shortwave trough has been enough to break the cap and allow CI to occur. Updrafts are moving into higher instability (RAP analyzed 2000+ J/kg), but dry air entraining into the developing updrafts and a lack of super-supportive deep layer shear may keep most storms sub-severe even as storm coverage increases. May be looking at a few hour window of scattered storms capable of producing small hail or a brief damaging wind gust, mainly along and east of a line from STJ to Sedalia, beginning within the next 30 mins. && .Discussion... Issued at 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019 Today`s setup for afternoon and evening convection is a complex situation as there is not strong forcing in the lower or upper levels. This pattern is more reminiscent of a June/July pattern with NW flow aloft and then surface heating with a weak surface boundary running W-E over the area. The uncertainty really comes into play on the location of where modified cumulus and eventual thunderstorms will form up. CAMs were going with northern Missouri in earlier runs but the HRRR has started to back off on that and forms storms along the boundary after sunset. Performing a current analysis of the surface observations, satellite, and SPC Mesoanalysis page we feel the most likely initiation point would be over northwest Missouri down into the Lake of the Ozarks late this afternoon. This would be more in line with the Nam 3km solution (12z and newest 18z run). Dewpoints are expected to rise through sunset and this should help initiate what is needed at the surface for convective temperatures as we are already into the low 80s in places. A weak mid level shortwave is observable on RAP 700hPa temperatures will move into northern Missouri late this afternoon which may be the trigger to weaken the capping inversion. This area is also co-located with the highest area of surface convergence which will help develop the cumulus. If all this comes together and the cap does break storms should form late this afternoon (5-6pm)over northwest Missouri and then slowly propagate to the SE firing along the warm frontal boundary after sunset if enough convergence is still there. The severe potential will be there at that time with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and steep mid level lapse rates. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds with large hail also being a possibility. This window is very small though as by 8-9pm all the instability will begin to dissipate. Wednesday and Thursday look to be rather quite precipitation wise with a strong mid and upper level ridge moving into the area. This ridge and subsequent strong southerly flow will cause WAA in the low levels and bring the hottest day of the year on Thursday with highs near 90s degrees and heat index values into the 90s. This ridge will hold up one more day on Friday keeping us precip free and hot and humid before the faucet turns back on Saturday. Saturday through next Tuesday look very active as a deep shortwave trough pushes into the southern plains with southwest flow persisting into the week. The main activity looks to be on Saturday and Tuesday with long range guidance. Severe weather looks possible late Saturday afternoon when the shear and instability match up, but the main threat looks to be high rates of precipitation and potential flooding as that boundary moves through slowly. GFS indicates Tuesday could be a possible severe weather pattern, but the ECMWF is quite a bit different so PoPs remain low until that uncertainty is resolved. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. A few isolated storms may develop in the vicinity of KSTJ, but most thunderstorm activity should remain east of the terminals. Light winds will become variable in direction overnight, and a brief period of patchy fog is possible around sunrise. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Mesoscale...Laflin Discussion...Barham Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 .UPDATE... Main updates are to remove thunder wording for this evening over land areas and to also increase sky cover for tonight. Weak frontal boundary currently across the Treasure Coast will continue to push south through tonight. Behind the boundary some drier air will filter into the area, especially from Orlando to Titusville northward. Evidence of this can already be seen with dewpoints in the mid 60s at many locations as of 8 pm. For locations farther south, where some higher moisture lingers, will keep in a slight showers chance overnight as the HRRR and local WRF are trying to develop some showers overnight...although confidence is pretty low. Lows have been bumped a degree or two with all the cloud cover in place, but it will still be the "coolest" night in quite some time. Mid to upper 60s can be expected across the interior and the Volusia Coast into northern Brevard (maybe some low 60s across northern Lake and NW Volusia). Locations along the coast from Melbourne southward will see temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70s. && .AVIATION... Extensive cloudiness associated with a frontal boundary pushing through central and south Florida will stick around through tonight, but conditions are expected to remain VFR. Models are not showing any ceiling restrictions tonight, but due to the proximity of the front still could see few020/sct020 from MCO-TIX southward. VFR continuing on Wednesday with only mentionable shower/storm chances confined to the VRB-FPR-SUA vicinity. && .MARINE... Tonight (previous)...The surface frontal boundary will move south across the waters overnight with onshore winds behind the boundary around 10-15 knots for the nrn/central waters. Seas mainly 2 ft near shore to around 3 ft offshore. Could see a few showers and storms overnight mainly south of Cape Canaveral. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 66 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 70 83 69 84 / 20 10 0 10 VRB 71 83 69 84 / 20 30 10 10 LEE 66 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 67 86 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 69 84 68 84 / 20 30 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Combs/Negron
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
820 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019 Per RAP analysis, Upper Michigan sits between sfc high pressure over southern Lake Michigan and points south and sfc low pressure near James Bay. A trough extends west-southwestward through northern MN, but associated cloud cover terminates near the ND/MN border at current. Here, widespread diurnal cumulus have prevailed across all but the northwest and far eastern UP where lake breezes have contributed to stability. High temperatures have reached 70 degrees across much of the interior today with ample convective mixing and winds have been relatively light except on the Keweenaw Peninsula where some 30 mph gusts have been observed. As the trough begins to slide across the area tonight, some light shower activity will be possible, translating from west to east. However, with limited moisture and weak forcing, most high resolution models indicate that coverage and intensity will be diminishing as the trough and associated diffuse cold front cross the region. Lowered low temps out west tonight by a couple degrees to near 40 with clouds clearing earlier than initially expected. There are some indications in high-res models and RAP/NAM soundings that onshore/upslope drizzle is possible in Marquette/Alger Counties tomorrow morning after sunrise. Given the NAM`s propensity to overdo low level moisture, POPs are capped at slight chance. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and a cooler day tomorrow with northerly flow keeping highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s near Lake Superior and mid to upper 60s inland. Could be some breeziness over the east with gusts as high as 20 mph. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 259 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019 There will be an upper level trough off the west coast and one in the Canadian Maritimes 00z Thu with a ridge across the plains. A shortwave will top the ridge over the Canadian Prairies and affect the upper Great Lakes late Wed night. The west coast trough moves into the Rockies on Fri with the ridge getting pinched off, but staying over the Mississippi valley. Nam shows some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving into the area on Thu before both move out Thu night. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the ern U.S. 12z Sat. This trough moves into the plains 12z Sun and then into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon before another trough moves onto the west coast. The west coast trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue. Still looks cold and wet for this forecast period as we stay in the north side of a stalled out front to the south of us. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019 Despite a frontal boundary traversing through this evening, VFR conditions look to prevail at the three terminals. However, behind the front, northerly winds off of the lake could allow for a LL cloud deck to build in, accompanied by drizzle at KSAW. With much drier air filtering in from the west, KIWD and KCMX look to clear out fairly quickly, but it`s not entirely out of the question that LL moisture could also pool in and impact these two terminals in the morning as well. Around midday tomorrow, look for clearing skies at all three terminals. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2019 Winds will remain below 20 knots through most of this week, with the best chance for 20-25 knot winds Thursday morning. There will be a few fronts passing along the lake bringing light showers. On Sunday, a low pressure system will approach Lake Superior, again increasing winds towards 20 to 30 knots. However, there is significant uncertainty with the evolution of the low at this time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...lg MARINE...KCW