Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/14/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Removed thunder wording for the rest of tonight. Main embedded impulse exiting the region with surface high pressure slowly building south overnight, so will see shower activity slowly decrease here on out. UPDATE Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Quick update to remove thunder from the north as that area has stabilized. POPs continue this evening, but were refined a bit based on latest guidance and trends. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Incoming mid level S/WV this evening will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms pretty much area wide through 06Z, with chances decreasing afterwards. Models have had a hard time depicting the convection the last two hours, so kept a broadbrush chance across western and central ND. Latest ESRL HRRR may finally be catching up with its simulation of radar returns this evening, so will keep watching for an opportunity to further refine POPs now through 05Z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast. Warm air advection in the wake of a warm front swinging through has boosted high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. This diurnal heating, coupled with a frontal boundary currently to the northwest of the forecast area, will provide some instability to help scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms move through. High-resolution models have these showers moving through beginning this evening and continuing through most of tonight. Severe weather is not expected with any of the isolated thunderstorms. Upper-level ridging will continue to bring above-average temperatures on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the low 70s and no precipitation expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 The long term forecast is highlighted by marginal severe weather possible on Wednesday before a gradual cool down and a gloomy weekend. Upper-level ridging continues on Wednesday, with the warmest day of the forecast period as high temperatures will reach the low 80s in most of western and parts of central North Dakota. A cold front is expected to sweep eastward through the area late morning through early afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. At 00Z, the GFS/Euro show the cold front draped north-south across central North Dakota, with an area of surface-based CAPE between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This instability is collocated with 0-6 km bulk shear values between 35 and 40 knots. A discrete storm mode is favored given the orientation of the shear vectors to the boundary. Therefore, marginally severe hail is possible. Heavy rainfall is also possible given the highly anomalous precipitable water values. After Wednesday`s cold front, temperatures begin a steady decline through the rest of the forecast period. As an upper-level trough begins to move through North Dakota on Friday, precipitation chances increase and continue for most of the weekend. Uncertainty exists where the GFS has the ridge from this week moving out faster, dropping temperatures into the 60s and keeping precipitation limited to rain showers, while the Euro slows the ridge propagation and keeps temperatures warmer, where isolated thunderstorms could not be ruled out. In general, expect a rather gloomy weekend with many chances for precipitation and temperatures lower than the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 00Z TAF period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across most of western and central North Dakota through this evening, with chances decreasing afterwards. As low pressure moves through western and central North Dakota, winds will slowly shift from the south, becoming calm, and transitioning to northerly at all terminals by tomorrow afternoon. This transition has already occurred at KISN-KMOT-KDIK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
809 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Surface obs from the region show that MVFR conditions are currently in place with sct conv firing south of the Rio Grande with only slow movement. The latest NAM forecast soundings for the RGV indicate that a fairly moist and shallow atms layer will persist throughout the night into Tues morning. So expect MVFR ceilings to prevail throughout the short term with light easterly surface winds. The 00z BRO sounding shows a pretty unstable airmass with an MUCAPE of 2842 J/KG. Will maintain a mention of t-storms later in the current TAF period as the latest HRRR indicates some potential for conv overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): After several days of model differences in handling the precipitation...and more importantly...precipitation intensity...situation for the Monday night through Tuesday night period, it appears that at least the global solutions are coming into agreement today. The US GFS has come around to a bit more precipitation later tonight through midday Tuesday, favoring areas along/east of US 281 but especially along the coast and into the Gulf waters. ECMWF on the other hand has backed off its prodigious convective feedback in eastern/southeastern Nuevo Leon by midnight or so, and now has a better handle on said development some of which bleeds across the river into at least the lower and perhaps mid Valley toward daybreak, but with primary heavier precipitation into the Gulf where static instability is highest. With this in mind, general confidence in the forecast has risen. The culprit for the confusion has been the handling of weak diffluence to the south of opening up 500 mb short wave now moving into west Texas, with the ECMWF overdoing intense convection while the GFS may have been a bit too tame over recent days given surface moisture/old front to help convergence. In any event, the moisture only deepens to around 700 mb overnight, favoring the lower/mid Valley and especially the Gulf, which is enough to support some decent rain to remain from whatever convection forms due south of the RGV. As for whether the convection remains with intense lightning...not expected at this point, rather a "bleed" of the initial activity into mainly rain/showers with any embedded stronger cells containing occasional to perhaps frequent cloud to ground lightning. By Wednesday noon or early afternoon, the main batch of convection will have shifted into the Gulf and soon after out of the Lower Texas waters outright as upper level northwest flow arrives and slow developing ridging follows overnight. Lingering boundaries and light easterly flow in still warm/humid air mass still argue for shower/storm (isolated to scattered) mention through the afternoon, but trimmed mentionable precip back to mainly east of US 281 for Tuesday night...and this may be generous with even less forcing and no daytime heating. Bottom line? Main timing for more coverage of precipitation will be generally from midnight to noon, favoring the lower Valley and Gulf waters with some hangback toward the mid Valley, especially around daybreak Tuesday. Blended WPC QPF with higher (likely) PoP area over the southeast third of the area to push an "expected" 0.5 to 1" of rainfall there, though a reasonable worse case scenario in any stronger clusters could push totals to 2" or higher, which would include areas from Brownsville to just south of Port Mansfield east. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): As the trough swings further east over the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure builds in from the west, expect rain chances to diminish through Wednesday. Fairly stable conditions return through the rest of the week with drier westerly flow aloft. Have kept POPs insignificant through Friday. The ECMWF has doubled down on the weekend system, now bringing a rather robust mid level trough further southeast into north Texas. This would boost rain chances for the weekend. GFS has remained more in line with current thinking, keeping the trough into the Central and Southern Plains, while having a tough time getting a front to push all the way through South Texas. This makes more sense based on climatology. That being said, will still keep mention of streamer activity on Saturday, just tweaked the POPs slightly, and have leaned toward a drier solution for Sunday. Summer like high pressure begins to build on Monday, have kept POPs low. Temperatures continue to warm to near normal Wednesday and gain a few degrees each afternoon into the weekend. Locations across the upper RGV and western border portions of the brush country may reach near triple digit heat through the weekend. No break in the summer like temperatures in the extended models to this point. MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): Moderate winds and slight to moderate seas continue this afternoon, and this will be the story through Tuesday night as modest gradient between east Texas ridge and trough/low setting up over the southwest portions of Gulf keep decent winds and some potential for seas building to 4 feet or so through the period. There could be periods of background flow that touches caution (15 to 20 knot) levels over the Gulf but overall expect ~15 to be the main value. That said, with some potential for an organized cluster/system of thunderstorms from late tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday, boaters should keep close eye on the situation, as both persistent outflows can be a problem (and easily reach small craft levels at 25 knots) as well as choppy to locally rough waves and seas/swell building a few feet above forecast. Such a situation could also create a coastal flood issue from enhanced easterlies...but that bridge can be crossed on Tuesday if the situation warrants. Wednesday through Monday: Light and favorable seas are expected Wednesday into early Friday with high pressure in control over the lower Texas coast and western Gulf of Mexico. As low pressure develops and deepens across north Texas and the Plains, the pressure gradient will strengthen and increase onshore flow Friday through the weekend, agitating seas through Sunday. Small Craft Caution conditions are likely through the weekend, with advisory conditions possible across the bay Friday and Saturday, and potentially offshore waters Saturday night. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term/Aviation...60 Long Term/Graphicast/Upper Air...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1112 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the southern New England will track south of the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday then toward western Nova Scotia Tuesday night. Low pressure will continue across Nova Scotia Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1055 PM Update... High clouds have spread all the way into northern areas. The lower clouds will reside back across southern Maine into NH. Radar showed leading edge of precip trying to move into southern Maine. Dry air holding in strong as high pres anchored in the Gulf of St. Lawrence wedges down into the region. Temps for the most part have been in the 40s and slowly cooling off. Coolest temps down across interior Washington County into swrn areas. The latest model guidance including the RAP and 00Z NAM show continued cooling in these areas overnight. Precip is expected to lift across southern and central areas to start out as rain interacting w/the inverted trof in place. The rain could mix w/or perhaps change to snow across the interior Washington County and across portions of the Central Highlands due to dynamic and evaporative cooling. Some of the higher terrain could even see some light accumulation by morning. sw to ne across the state. Previous Discussion... Chilly high pressure will be over the Maritimes tonight as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast tracks south of New England. Some rain will spread into southwestern areas late tonight then across the rest of the southern part of our region on Tuesday. Both the NAM and the GFS are maintaining their forecast that low level thickness will be cold enough to support snow well inland across the south Tuesday morning, central areas midday Tuesday then closer to the north Tuesday afternoon. Forecasting snow amounts during the day in May is very tricky because the high sun angel produces some solar radiation, even through the clouds, and this will warm the ground limiting accumulation. The best chance for accumulations will be over the higher terrain in northern Washington and northern Hancock counties, and the central highlands, especially the Katahdin region where a few inches are possible. Elsewhere, amounts will likely be limited to a slushy coating on grassy surfaces. Temperatures will make a run for 40 over interior Downeast but drop into the 30s during any rain/snow mix. Across the north temperatures may reach the upper 40 with precipitation not expected to reach north until late in the day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There will be a low pressure system tracking through the southern Gulf of Maine with an occluded front extending across Maine at the start of the period. The low will slowly track east to eastern Nova Scotia by Wednesday evening. The occluded front will move east into New Brunswick. Higher pressure will briefly build across the region as a new low will its associated frontal system moves east across the eastern Great Lakes region. This low will track southeast entering the Atlantic across Long Island then track northeast into the southwestern Gulf of Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NWPSCG1CAR for seas in the coastal waters. Used GFS for wind to better maintain consistence with previous forecast. Used GYX Wnd Gust tool for Gusts Used consall for QPF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The start of the period will find a low tracking across the southern Gulf of Maine. Higher pressure will be in place across the state. This low will track harmlessly east into the Atlantic. Another low will move across the Great Lakes will bring a cold front into NW Maine Saturday afternoon, crossing the area Sunday afternoon. Higher pressure will ridge across. The GFS shows a front moving through Maine Monday through the end of the period. The GEM and EC maintain the high pressure across the state. The blended grids maintains the high pressure ridge across the region. Stuck with the blend. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight will lower to MVFR then IFR Downeast Tuesday morning and lower to MVFR across the north Tuesday afternoon then IFR late Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: IFR to low MVFR conditions at all sites Tuesday night and Wednesday with an occluded frontal system extended across the region. The occlusion will move east into New Brunswick Wednesday night. Improving conditions to MVFR then to VFR by Thursday morning. Higher pressure will build across the area MVFR to VFR conditions all sites Thursday through Saturday afternoon when the next frontal system moves into northwestern Maine. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning is up for the offshore waters and a SCA for the intracoastal waters from late tonight through Tuesday. This will be for northeast winds as the low center tracks just south of the Gulf of Maine. SHORT TERM: A Gale warning for the outer waters, SCA for the inner waters, will likely be in affect at the start of the period as a low pressure system tracks across the southern Gulf of Maine waters. The Gale will likely be down graded to an SCA early in the period as the low moves into Canadian waters. The SCA may transition to an SCA for seas Wednesday morning, then winds and seas will fall below SCA Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain below SCA from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
932 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .UPDATE... GOES-16 Water Vapor still shows the upper level low spinning across far west Texas, centered just north of Fort Davis. The low has kicked off a weak line of storms from Sonora to Eldorado and a few Serranias del Burro supercells. With the storms under-performing in general SPC has dropped the slight risk from our area and replaced it with a marginal risk of severe storms for the rest of the night. CAMs have really backed off on precipitation during the overnight hours and the 00z DRT Sounding came in with a weak capping inversion around 700mb which probably helped inhibit more widespread convection. The greatest risk of any strong to possibly severe storms will be along the Rio Grande river over the next 2-3 hours as these SdB supercells try to make it into Maverick County. There has been a general weakening trend with the storms as they work southeast off of the mountains, and the first storm to try to make it into Quemado quickly dissipated. As of 9:20pm there is another storm approaching the Eagle Pass area which will need to be monitored. If a storm does make it into Maverick County hail and damaging thunderstorm winds will be the main threats. The storms headed from Sutton into Kimble County (just north of our area) appear to be weakening as well, with outflow from the storms racing ahead of them in the last few scans from the KSJT radar. In general have reconfigured PoPs for the night to reflect the greatest chance of precipitation across Maverick County and far northern Edwards/Kerr County through midnight. For the midnight through Tuesday morning timeframe have also pulled back PoPs to slight chance along the I-35 corridor, and chance PoPs west of I-35. Per recent runs of the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF there could be a few isolated showers, and maybe a thunderstorm across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country through the early morning hours as the upper low continues to slowly move east and continues to weaken/fill. The outflow from the storms over Sutton/Kimble Counties could also aid in the development of non-severe isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the Hill Country through the early morning hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track with only minor retrending of the hourly grids done. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Low amounts of CAPE by mid May standards has left our chance for strong storms curbed with most of convective lift being elevated or generated on mountain slopes. Only DRT has some activity that might generate a clap of thunder, but do not see any direct impacts going forward. Toward midnight, the SAT/SSF areas could see some of the elevated Edwards Plateau activity work into the area as it weakens. We`re only expecting scattered showers and isolated storms so will keep out the VCTS for this update. Then as the upper disturbance gets directly overhead of the I-35 corridor terminals by midday Tuesday, will allocate for another chance of storms as VCTS. coverage for thunder will probably be around 20 percent, so do not see a need for any TEMPO or PROB30 groups until will see a more definitive trend. The abundance of mid level clouds will have us going conservative with low cloud coverage, only showing mvfr cigs at or above 2000 ft from midnight through around 17Z Tuesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... The main concern for this afternoon and evening will be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of south central Texas. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 on a scale of 5) for areas generally along and west of a Fredericksburg to San Antonio to Pleasanton line. For areas along and west of a Llano to Lockhart to Shiner line, there is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 5). The main severe weather concerns are large hail and damaging winds. In addition, some locally backed winds in the low-levels along the Rio Grande plains may boost the concern for an isolated tornado. Surface-based CAPE values are fairly modest as of late this afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of the Rio Grande plains. Despite the low end CAPE values, we should see enough shear and afternoon heating to help sustain convection coming in from the lower Trans Pecos or help initiate new convection, including supercells, across the Rio Grande plains. Mid-level lapse rates (700-500mb of 8.4 C/km) from the 12Z sounding along with some drier air in the 850-550 mb layer favors hail production. At this time, it appears hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. However, LCLs are not terribly high and with some locally backed flow, we can`t rule out an isolated tornado near the Rio Grande plains. If convection manages to sustain itself, we could see a MCS develop across the Rio Grande plains by late evening. This system would then move east-southeast and could approach the San Antonio area either very late tonight or early Tuesday morning. Weak cyclonic flow remains across the region on Tuesday as the upper low begins to weaken and fill while moving slowly eastward. Scattered showers and storms are expected across most of the region and we will continue to mention a decent chance of rainfall for most areas. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated across our region given the weak flow aloft. However, given slow moving storms and precipitable water values near 1.5" across our eastern areas, we could see some locally heavy rainfall near the coastal plains. On Wednesday, the models continue to suggest some shower and thunderstorm activity will develop, especially in the afternoon. For now it appears rain chances should be favored east of I-35. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... For Thursday and Friday, dry weather appears in the offing for most of the region as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west. While the global models are now showing precipitation across much of the area, we will only show a low chance near the coastal plains on Thursday at this time. For the remainder of south central Texas, we are not yet confident enough to add a mention of rain to the forecast just yet. For Saturday and Sunday, the weather pattern is expected to trend a little more active as an upper level trough approaches from the west. The medium range models continue to differ with the strength of this system, with the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the main region of lift within the trough axis. The ECMWF also shows the trough axis trying to take on a more neutral or even slightly negative tilt as it moves through. Negative-tilt troughs moving through in the Spring typically result in active weather. In addition, a Pacific front may move in from the west and provide additional support for shower and thunderstorm development. The current forecast with regards to rain chances appears to be in good shape and we will not make many changes through the upcoming weekend. We should trend back to dry weather early next week as a subtropical ridge axis builds in from the south. Temperatures should rise to at or above normal Sunday and especially Monday as the low-level thermal ridge to our west begins to amplify. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 61 81 64 83 65 / 20 30 10 10 - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 82 63 83 65 / 10 30 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 81 63 82 64 / 30 30 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 60 79 62 81 64 / 30 40 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 83 66 86 67 / 40 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 80 63 83 64 / 10 30 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 63 83 65 85 65 / 40 30 10 20 - San Marcos Muni Airport 61 82 63 83 65 / 20 30 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 83 64 83 66 / 10 40 10 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 82 65 83 66 / 40 30 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 64 81 66 83 67 / 40 30 10 20 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...Oaks Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1044 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form around the Devils Lake basin with mid to high clouds over much of the CWA. Minor adjustments to PoPs, otherwise the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 Challenge for the short term will be shower coverage along prefrontal trough this afternoon and evening. Then again shower chances and coverage Tuesday as weak cold front pushes across the area. Afternoon heating along prefrontal trough across the western edge of the Devils Lake basin has allowed a line of CU to develop. HRRR solns in the near term continue to increase coverage across the Devils Lake basin in the late afternoon and evening. Will go ahead and mention an isolated shower even though mid level lapse rates remain weak along the prefrontal trough. As the wind shift or cold front drops south overnight shower chances continue into NW MN. The cloud cover and relatively warm airmass will help keep temps in the to low 50s and upper 40s tonight. With daytime heating Tuesday increasing instability will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to increase in coverage across the MN lakes region. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 For the extended period an overall dry pattern will give way to increasing rain chances for the weekend. Will see another low chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another weak cold front pushes across the northern plains. After a dry Thursday and Friday ensemble solutions continue to paint a wet weekend for the area as southwest flow aloft develops with moisture streaming northward into the region. Widespread rain is expected with two or three areas of lift moving through the mean flow with the strongest associated with the upper low though the exact track of this feature remains suspect at this time range. Will continue to monitor potential precip amounts and placement. As of current guidance there is clustering of solns, 25 to 75 percent probability, between 0.50" to 1.50" amounts for the valley and subsequently the region, of course the outliers exist below and above that range. Generally max temps will be in the 70s Wednesday and then cooling back into the 60s for Thursday and Friday and potentially cooler Saturday or Sunday depending on the timing and placement of aforementioned precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 A few showers continue to move across the region this evening. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours with increasing rain chances for KBJI and KTVF as we head through the day on Tuesday. Occasional MVFR CIGs are possible during periods of shower activity, otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Added LLWS to the early hour forecast. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Lynch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
831 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019 GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis show a low pressure system moving through Lower Michigan this morning, which is stretching some clouds across eastern UP. Under a broad area of high pressure, the UP will experience sunny skies through Tuesday, with periods of afternoon cumulus development via diabatic heating in the afternoons. A low pressure system seen on the RAP this morning north of Lake Winnipeg is progressing east. An associated trough and cold front extending to the south is creating some mid-level clouds across north central Minnesota this afternoon. No precipitation seen so far with this trough as MPX and INL 12Z soundings show plenty of dry air in the lowest levels. Typical diurnal CU field seen this afternoon with Lake Superior lake breeze will continue tomorrow afternoon as well. For tonight, clearing skies and light winds will lead to a cooler night. Moisture feeding into Upper Michigan with SW flow will likely keep temperatures above freezing at least. On Tuesday, temperatures inland will approach 70 degrees in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Lake Michigan lake breeze will cut down temperatures slightly out east, as a breeze of Lake Superior does the same for northern and western portions of the UP. Ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening, rain showers will begin in the far western portions of the CWA. Prob thunder was left out of this forecast as models were trending away from that solution, however there is a chance for some thunder towards Ironwood Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019 Upper air pattern will have a ridge in the Rockies and a closed 500 mb low in New England 00z Wed. There will also be a shortwave moving into the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu while a trough moves onto the west coast and is on the east coast which lasts through 00z Fri. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and a narrow band of moisture move through the area Tue night and then the moisture and dynamics return again for Thu. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the western U.S. and a broad 500 mb ridge across the ern half of the U.S. 12z Fri with a sfc front hung up along the WI/IL border. The ridge amplifies a bit on Sat and keeps the sfc front stalled out to the south. The GFS is less amplified from 12z Sat through 12z Mon than the ECMWF is as the ECMWF keeps a 500 mb ridge across the upper Great Lakes while the GFS moves a shortwave through the area. The ECMWF solution would be a slow solutions with the sfc front remaining stationary along the WI/IL border through the period which sets up the area on the north side of the frontal boundary with overrunning setting up across the area. The highest pops would be in the southern cwa. Looks like a return to cool and wet for this forecast period. Temperatures will stay below normal for this forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 732 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019 VFR conditions will continue to dominate through at least midday tomorrow at all three terminals. Southwest winds will prevail tomorrow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By later in the day, KIWD and KCMX could see some showers developing in the terminal areas, with the higher precip chances looking to hold off until just beyond this TAF period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 340 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019 Winds will remain below 20 knots through this week. There will be a few fronts passing along the lake bringing light showers. On Saturday into Sunday, a low pressure system will approach Lake Superior increasing winds towards 25 to 30 knots. However, there is uncertainty with this model solution so stay tuned. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...lg MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .AVIATION... With the exception of a few linger showers and storms from this evening, most of the convection has dissipated. RAP soundings indicate some potential for elevated showers/storms near PNC between 6-9Z. This seems possible given the amount of mid-level clouds (ACCAS) over south central Kansas and north central/eastern Oklahoma. After the overnight period, mainly dry conditions will prevail with a breezy southerly wind. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/ AVIATION... 00Z TAFs... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across parts of northwest and north-central Oklahoma through about 02z this evening but should mostly avoid the TAF sites with the exception of KWWR. After these storms dissipate, expect VFR conditions through the overnight and during the day tomorrow with winds mainly from the south. Ware PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/ DISCUSSION... A few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along an apparent warm front in northwest Oklahoma. Additional development along and near the surface boundary seems probable (the boundary extends from near Woodward to Guthrie to east- central Oklahoma). The large dewpoint depressions in the far northwest may help a few storms produce strong winds, while marginally severe hail will be the main risk elsewhere. The storms should diminish toward sunset. The next significant weather feature is a large storm system that is expected to approach the southern Plains on Friday. This system will likely produce severe storms over parts of our forecast area both Friday and Saturday. The higher risk will be in the west on Friday, and over the entire region on Saturday. There is still a lot of difference in the details according to the models, but the overall pattern is supportive of severe storms and very heavy rain...which probably will cause additional flooding in areas that just dealt with flooding from previous storms...and will prolong flooding on those rivers still above flood stage this weekend. CmS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 57 81 61 84 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 57 81 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 58 82 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 84 58 86 / 20 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 57 82 61 85 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 57 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$