Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/14/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Removed thunder wording for the rest of tonight. Main embedded
impulse exiting the region with surface high pressure slowly
building south overnight, so will see shower activity slowly
decrease here on out.
UPDATE Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Quick update to remove thunder from the north as that area has
stabilized. POPs continue this evening, but were refined a bit
based on latest guidance and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Incoming mid level S/WV this evening will bring a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms pretty much area wide through
06Z, with chances decreasing afterwards. Models have had a hard
time depicting the convection the last two hours, so kept a
broadbrush chance across western and central ND. Latest ESRL HRRR
may finally be catching up with its simulation of radar returns
this evening, so will keep watching for an opportunity to further
refine POPs now through 05Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short
term forecast.
Warm air advection in the wake of a warm front swinging through
has boosted high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. This
diurnal heating, coupled with a frontal boundary currently to the
northwest of the forecast area, will provide some instability to
help scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms move
through. High-resolution models have these showers moving through
beginning this evening and continuing through most of tonight.
Severe weather is not expected with any of the isolated
thunderstorms.
Upper-level ridging will continue to bring above-average
temperatures on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the low 70s and
no precipitation expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
The long term forecast is highlighted by marginal severe weather
possible on Wednesday before a gradual cool down and a gloomy
weekend.
Upper-level ridging continues on Wednesday, with the warmest day
of the forecast period as high temperatures will reach the low 80s
in most of western and parts of central North Dakota. A cold front
is expected to sweep eastward through the area late morning
through early afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front. At 00Z, the GFS/Euro show the cold front
draped north-south across central North Dakota, with an area of
surface-based CAPE between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This instability is
collocated with 0-6 km bulk shear values between 35 and 40 knots.
A discrete storm mode is favored given the orientation of the
shear vectors to the boundary. Therefore, marginally severe hail
is possible. Heavy rainfall is also possible given the highly
anomalous precipitable water values.
After Wednesday`s cold front, temperatures begin a steady decline
through the rest of the forecast period. As an upper-level trough
begins to move through North Dakota on Friday, precipitation
chances increase and continue for most of the weekend. Uncertainty
exists where the GFS has the ridge from this week moving out
faster, dropping temperatures into the 60s and keeping
precipitation limited to rain showers, while the Euro slows the
ridge propagation and keeps temperatures warmer, where isolated
thunderstorms could not be ruled out. In general, expect a rather
gloomy weekend with many chances for precipitation and
temperatures lower than the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 00Z TAF
period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
across most of western and central North Dakota through this
evening, with chances decreasing afterwards. As low pressure
moves through western and central North Dakota, winds will slowly
shift from the south, becoming calm, and transitioning to
northerly at all terminals by tomorrow afternoon. This transition
has already occurred at KISN-KMOT-KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
809 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Surface obs from the region show that MVFR conditions
are currently in place with sct conv firing south of the Rio
Grande with only slow movement. The latest NAM forecast soundings
for the RGV indicate that a fairly moist and shallow atms layer
will persist throughout the night into Tues morning. So expect
MVFR ceilings to prevail throughout the short term with light
easterly surface winds. The 00z BRO sounding shows a pretty
unstable airmass with an MUCAPE of 2842 J/KG. Will maintain a
mention of t-storms later in the current TAF period as the latest
HRRR indicates some potential for conv overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): After several days of model
differences in handling the precipitation...and more
importantly...precipitation intensity...situation for the Monday
night through Tuesday night period, it appears that at least the
global solutions are coming into agreement today. The US GFS has
come around to a bit more precipitation later tonight through midday
Tuesday, favoring areas along/east of US 281 but especially along
the coast and into the Gulf waters. ECMWF on the other hand has
backed off its prodigious convective feedback in
eastern/southeastern Nuevo Leon by midnight or so, and now has a
better handle on said development some of which bleeds across the
river into at least the lower and perhaps mid Valley toward
daybreak, but with primary heavier precipitation into the Gulf where
static instability is highest. With this in mind, general confidence
in the forecast has risen.
The culprit for the confusion has been the handling of weak
diffluence to the south of opening up 500 mb short wave now moving
into west Texas, with the ECMWF overdoing intense convection while
the GFS may have been a bit too tame over recent days given surface
moisture/old front to help convergence. In any event, the moisture
only deepens to around 700 mb overnight, favoring the lower/mid
Valley and especially the Gulf, which is enough to support some
decent rain to remain from whatever convection forms due south of
the RGV. As for whether the convection remains with intense
lightning...not expected at this point, rather a "bleed" of the
initial activity into mainly rain/showers with any embedded
stronger cells containing occasional to perhaps frequent cloud to
ground lightning.
By Wednesday noon or early afternoon, the main batch of convection
will have shifted into the Gulf and soon after out of the Lower
Texas waters outright as upper level northwest flow arrives and
slow developing ridging follows overnight. Lingering boundaries and
light easterly flow in still warm/humid air mass still argue for
shower/storm (isolated to scattered) mention through the afternoon,
but trimmed mentionable precip back to mainly east of US 281 for
Tuesday night...and this may be generous with even less forcing and
no daytime heating.
Bottom line? Main timing for more coverage of precipitation will be
generally from midnight to noon, favoring the lower Valley and Gulf
waters with some hangback toward the mid Valley, especially around
daybreak Tuesday. Blended WPC QPF with higher (likely) PoP area over
the southeast third of the area to push an "expected" 0.5 to 1" of
rainfall there, though a reasonable worse case scenario in any
stronger clusters could push totals to 2" or higher, which would
include areas from Brownsville to just south of Port Mansfield
east.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): As the trough swings
further east over the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure builds
in from the west, expect rain chances to diminish through
Wednesday. Fairly stable conditions return through the rest of the
week with drier westerly flow aloft. Have kept POPs insignificant
through Friday.
The ECMWF has doubled down on the weekend system, now bringing a
rather robust mid level trough further southeast into north
Texas. This would boost rain chances for the weekend. GFS has
remained more in line with current thinking, keeping the trough
into the Central and Southern Plains, while having a tough time
getting a front to push all the way through South Texas. This
makes more sense based on climatology. That being said, will still
keep mention of streamer activity on Saturday, just tweaked the
POPs slightly, and have leaned toward a drier solution for
Sunday. Summer like high pressure begins to build on Monday, have
kept POPs low.
Temperatures continue to warm to near normal Wednesday and gain a
few degrees each afternoon into the weekend. Locations across the
upper RGV and western border portions of the brush country may
reach near triple digit heat through the weekend. No break in the
summer like temperatures in the extended models to this point.
MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): Moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas continue this afternoon, and this will be the story
through Tuesday night as modest gradient between east Texas ridge
and trough/low setting up over the southwest portions of Gulf
keep decent winds and some potential for seas building to 4 feet
or so through the period. There could be periods of background
flow that touches caution (15 to 20 knot) levels over the Gulf but
overall expect ~15 to be the main value.
That said, with some potential for an organized cluster/system of
thunderstorms from late tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday,
boaters should keep close eye on the situation, as both persistent
outflows can be a problem (and easily reach small craft levels at 25
knots) as well as choppy to locally rough waves and seas/swell
building a few feet above forecast. Such a situation could also
create a coastal flood issue from enhanced easterlies...but that
bridge can be crossed on Tuesday if the situation warrants.
Wednesday through Monday: Light and favorable seas are expected
Wednesday into early Friday with high pressure in control over the
lower Texas coast and western Gulf of Mexico. As low pressure
develops and deepens across north Texas and the Plains, the
pressure gradient will strengthen and increase onshore flow Friday
through the weekend, agitating seas through Sunday. Small Craft
Caution conditions are likely through the weekend, with advisory
conditions possible across the bay Friday and Saturday, and
potentially offshore waters Saturday night.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term/Graphicast/Upper Air...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1112 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the southern New England will track south of
the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday then toward western Nova Scotia
Tuesday night. Low pressure will continue across Nova Scotia
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1055 PM Update...
High clouds have spread all the way into northern areas. The
lower clouds will reside back across southern Maine into NH.
Radar showed leading edge of precip trying to move into southern
Maine. Dry air holding in strong as high pres anchored in the
Gulf of St. Lawrence wedges down into the region. Temps for the
most part have been in the 40s and slowly cooling off. Coolest
temps down across interior Washington County into swrn areas.
The latest model guidance including the RAP and 00Z NAM show
continued cooling in these areas overnight. Precip is expected
to lift across southern and central areas to start out as rain
interacting w/the inverted trof in place. The rain could mix
w/or perhaps change to snow across the interior Washington
County and across portions of the Central Highlands due to
dynamic and evaporative cooling. Some of the higher terrain
could even see some light accumulation by morning. sw to ne
across the state.
Previous Discussion...
Chilly high pressure will be over the Maritimes tonight as low
pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast tracks south of New England.
Some rain will spread into southwestern areas late tonight then
across the rest of the southern part of our region on Tuesday.
Both the NAM and the GFS are maintaining their forecast that low
level thickness will be cold enough to support snow well inland
across the south Tuesday morning, central areas midday Tuesday
then closer to the north Tuesday afternoon. Forecasting snow
amounts during the day in May is very tricky because the high
sun angel produces some solar radiation, even through the
clouds, and this will warm the ground limiting accumulation. The
best chance for accumulations will be over the higher terrain
in northern Washington and northern Hancock counties, and the
central highlands, especially the Katahdin region where a few
inches are possible. Elsewhere, amounts will likely be limited
to a slushy coating on grassy surfaces. Temperatures will make a
run for 40 over interior Downeast but drop into the 30s during
any rain/snow mix. Across the north temperatures may reach the
upper 40 with precipitation not expected to reach north until
late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There will be a low pressure system tracking through the
southern Gulf of Maine with an occluded front extending across
Maine at the start of the period. The low will slowly track east
to eastern Nova Scotia by Wednesday evening. The occluded front
will move east into New Brunswick. Higher pressure will briefly
build across the region as a new low will its associated
frontal system moves east across the eastern Great Lakes region.
This low will track southeast entering the Atlantic across Long
Island then track northeast into the southwestern Gulf of Maine
by the end of the period.
Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Used NWPSCG1CAR for seas in the
coastal waters. Used GFS for wind to better maintain consistence
with previous forecast. Used GYX Wnd Gust tool for Gusts Used
consall for QPF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The start of the period will find a low tracking across the
southern Gulf of Maine. Higher pressure will be in place across
the state. This low will track harmlessly east into the
Atlantic. Another low will move across the Great Lakes will
bring a cold front into NW Maine Saturday afternoon, crossing
the area Sunday afternoon. Higher pressure will ridge across.
The GFS shows a front moving through Maine Monday through the
end of the period. The GEM and EC maintain the high pressure
across the state. The blended grids maintains the high pressure
ridge across the region. Stuck with the blend.
Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight will lower to MVFR then IFR
Downeast Tuesday morning and lower to MVFR across the north
Tuesday afternoon then IFR late Tuesday afternoon.
SHORT TERM: IFR to low MVFR conditions at all sites Tuesday
night and Wednesday with an occluded frontal system extended
across the region. The occlusion will move east into New
Brunswick Wednesday night. Improving conditions to MVFR then to
VFR by Thursday morning. Higher pressure will build across the
area MVFR to VFR conditions all sites Thursday through Saturday
afternoon when the next frontal system moves into northwestern
Maine.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A gale warning is up for the offshore waters and a
SCA for the intracoastal waters from late tonight through
Tuesday. This will be for northeast winds as the low center
tracks just south of the Gulf of Maine.
SHORT TERM: A Gale warning for the outer waters, SCA for the
inner waters, will likely be in affect at the start of the
period as a low pressure system tracks across the southern Gulf
of Maine waters. The Gale will likely be down graded to an SCA
early in the period as the low moves into Canadian waters. The
SCA may transition to an SCA for seas Wednesday morning, then
winds and seas will fall below SCA Wednesday afternoon. Winds
and seas will remain below SCA from Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
932 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
.UPDATE...
GOES-16 Water Vapor still shows the upper level low spinning across
far west Texas, centered just north of Fort Davis. The low has kicked
off a weak line of storms from Sonora to Eldorado and a few Serranias
del Burro supercells. With the storms under-performing in general
SPC has dropped the slight risk from our area and replaced it with a
marginal risk of severe storms for the rest of the night. CAMs have
really backed off on precipitation during the overnight hours and the
00z DRT Sounding came in with a weak capping inversion around 700mb
which probably helped inhibit more widespread convection.
The greatest risk of any strong to possibly severe storms will be
along the Rio Grande river over the next 2-3 hours as these SdB
supercells try to make it into Maverick County. There has been a
general weakening trend with the storms as they work southeast off of
the mountains, and the first storm to try to make it into Quemado
quickly dissipated. As of 9:20pm there is another storm approaching
the Eagle Pass area which will need to be monitored. If a storm does
make it into Maverick County hail and damaging thunderstorm winds
will be the main threats. The storms headed from Sutton into Kimble
County (just north of our area) appear to be weakening as well, with
outflow from the storms racing ahead of them in the last few scans
from the KSJT radar.
In general have reconfigured PoPs for the night to reflect the
greatest chance of precipitation across Maverick County and far
northern Edwards/Kerr County through midnight. For the midnight
through Tuesday morning timeframe have also pulled back PoPs to
slight chance along the I-35 corridor, and chance PoPs west of I-35.
Per recent runs of the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF there could be a few
isolated showers, and maybe a thunderstorm across the Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country through the early morning hours as the upper low
continues to slowly move east and continues to weaken/fill. The
outflow from the storms over Sutton/Kimble Counties could also aid in
the development of non-severe isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm over the Hill Country through the early morning hours.
The rest of the forecast remains on track with only minor retrending
of the hourly grids done.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/
AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Low amounts of CAPE by mid May standards has left our chance for
strong storms curbed with most of convective lift being elevated or
generated on mountain slopes. Only DRT has some activity that might
generate a clap of thunder, but do not see any direct impacts going
forward. Toward midnight, the SAT/SSF areas could see some of the
elevated Edwards Plateau activity work into the area as it weakens.
We`re only expecting scattered showers and isolated storms so will
keep out the VCTS for this update. Then as the upper disturbance gets
directly overhead of the I-35 corridor terminals by midday Tuesday,
will allocate for another chance of storms as VCTS. coverage for
thunder will probably be around 20 percent, so do not see a need for
any TEMPO or PROB30 groups until will see a more definitive trend.
The abundance of mid level clouds will have us going conservative
with low cloud coverage, only showing mvfr cigs at or above 2000 ft
from midnight through around 17Z Tuesday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The main concern for this afternoon and evening will be the chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of south central
Texas. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2
on a scale of 5) for areas generally along and west of a
Fredericksburg to San Antonio to Pleasanton line. For areas along and
west of a Llano to Lockhart to Shiner line, there is a Marginal Risk
(1 on a scale of 5). The main severe weather concerns are large hail
and damaging winds. In addition, some locally backed winds in the
low-levels along the Rio Grande plains may boost the concern for an
isolated tornado.
Surface-based CAPE values are fairly modest as of late this
afternoon with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/kg
across portions of the Rio Grande plains. Despite the low end CAPE
values, we should see enough shear and afternoon heating to help
sustain convection coming in from the lower Trans Pecos or help
initiate new convection, including supercells, across the Rio Grande
plains. Mid-level lapse rates (700-500mb of 8.4 C/km) from the 12Z
sounding along with some drier air in the 850-550 mb layer favors
hail production. At this time, it appears hail and damaging winds
will be the main concern. However, LCLs are not terribly high and
with some locally backed flow, we can`t rule out an isolated tornado
near the Rio Grande plains. If convection manages to sustain itself,
we could see a MCS develop across the Rio Grande plains by late
evening. This system would then move east-southeast and could
approach the San Antonio area either very late tonight or early
Tuesday morning.
Weak cyclonic flow remains across the region on Tuesday as the upper
low begins to weaken and fill while moving slowly eastward. Scattered
showers and storms are expected across most of the region and we will
continue to mention a decent chance of rainfall for most areas. At
this time, severe weather is not anticipated across our region given
the weak flow aloft. However, given slow moving storms and
precipitable water values near 1.5" across our eastern areas, we
could see some locally heavy rainfall near the coastal plains. On
Wednesday, the models continue to suggest some shower and
thunderstorm activity will develop, especially in the afternoon. For
now it appears rain chances should be favored east of I-35.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
For Thursday and Friday, dry weather appears in the offing for most
of the region as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west.
While the global models are now showing precipitation across much of
the area, we will only show a low chance near the coastal plains on
Thursday at this time. For the remainder of south central Texas, we
are not yet confident enough to add a mention of rain to the forecast
just yet.
For Saturday and Sunday, the weather pattern is expected to trend a
little more active as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
The medium range models continue to differ with the strength of this
system, with the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the main
region of lift within the trough axis. The ECMWF also shows the
trough axis trying to take on a more neutral or even slightly
negative tilt as it moves through. Negative-tilt troughs moving
through in the Spring typically result in active weather. In
addition, a Pacific front may move in from the west and provide
additional support for shower and thunderstorm development. The
current forecast with regards to rain chances appears to be in good
shape and we will not make many changes through the upcoming weekend.
We should trend back to dry weather early next week as a subtropical
ridge axis builds in from the south. Temperatures should rise to at
or above normal Sunday and especially Monday as the low-level thermal
ridge to our west begins to amplify.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 61 81 64 83 65 / 20 30 10 10 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 82 63 83 65 / 10 30 10 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 81 63 82 64 / 30 30 10 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 60 79 62 81 64 / 30 40 10 10 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 63 83 66 86 67 / 40 20 10 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 80 63 83 64 / 10 30 10 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 63 83 65 85 65 / 40 30 10 20 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 82 63 83 65 / 20 30 10 20 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 83 64 83 66 / 10 40 10 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 62 82 65 83 66 / 40 30 10 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 64 81 66 83 67 / 40 30 10 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1044 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form around
the Devils Lake basin with mid to high clouds over much of the
CWA. Minor adjustments to PoPs, otherwise the forecast is on
track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Challenge for the short term will be shower coverage along
prefrontal trough this afternoon and evening. Then again shower
chances and coverage Tuesday as weak cold front pushes across the
area. Afternoon heating along prefrontal trough across the western
edge of the Devils Lake basin has allowed a line of CU to
develop. HRRR solns in the near term continue to increase coverage
across the Devils Lake basin in the late afternoon and evening.
Will go ahead and mention an isolated shower even though mid level
lapse rates remain weak along the prefrontal trough.
As the wind shift or cold front drops south overnight shower
chances continue into NW MN. The cloud cover and relatively warm
airmass will help keep temps in the to low 50s and upper 40s
tonight. With daytime heating Tuesday increasing instability will
allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to increase in coverage
across the MN lakes region.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
For the extended period an overall dry pattern will give way to
increasing rain chances for the weekend. Will see another low
chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as another weak cold front pushes across the
northern plains. After a dry Thursday and Friday ensemble
solutions continue to paint a wet weekend for the area as
southwest flow aloft develops with moisture streaming northward
into the region. Widespread rain is expected with two or three
areas of lift moving through the mean flow with the strongest
associated with the upper low though the exact track of this
feature remains suspect at this time range. Will continue to
monitor potential precip amounts and placement. As of current
guidance there is clustering of solns, 25 to 75 percent
probability, between 0.50" to 1.50" amounts for the valley and
subsequently the region, of course the outliers exist below and
above that range.
Generally max temps will be in the 70s Wednesday and then cooling
back into the 60s for Thursday and Friday and potentially cooler
Saturday or Sunday depending on the timing and placement of
aforementioned precip.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
A few showers continue to move across the region this evening. VFR
conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours
with increasing rain chances for KBJI and KTVF as we head through
the day on Tuesday. Occasional MVFR CIGs are possible during
periods of shower activity, otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
through the TAF period. Added LLWS to the early hour forecast.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Lynch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
831 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019
GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis show a low pressure system moving
through Lower Michigan this morning, which is stretching some clouds
across eastern UP. Under a broad area of high pressure, the UP will
experience sunny skies through Tuesday, with periods of afternoon
cumulus development via diabatic heating in the afternoons. A low
pressure system seen on the RAP this morning north of Lake Winnipeg
is progressing east. An associated trough and cold front extending
to the south is creating some mid-level clouds across north central
Minnesota this afternoon. No precipitation seen so far with this
trough as MPX and INL 12Z soundings show plenty of dry air in the
lowest levels. Typical diurnal CU field seen this afternoon with
Lake Superior lake breeze will continue tomorrow afternoon as well.
For tonight, clearing skies and light winds will lead to a cooler
night. Moisture feeding into Upper Michigan with SW flow will likely
keep temperatures above freezing at least. On Tuesday, temperatures
inland will approach 70 degrees in the afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. Lake Michigan lake breeze will cut down
temperatures slightly out east, as a breeze of Lake Superior does
the same for northern and western portions of the UP. Ahead of an
approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening, rain showers
will begin in the far western portions of the CWA. Prob thunder was
left out of this forecast as models were trending away from that
solution, however there is a chance for some thunder towards
Ironwood Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019
Upper air pattern will have a ridge in the Rockies and a closed 500
mb low in New England 00z Wed. There will also be a shortwave moving
into the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed. The ridge moves into the plains
12z Thu while a trough moves onto the west coast and is on the east
coast which lasts through 00z Fri. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence
and a narrow band of moisture move through the area Tue night and
then the moisture and dynamics return again for Thu. Overall, did
not make too many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over
the western U.S. and a broad 500 mb ridge across the ern half of the
U.S. 12z Fri with a sfc front hung up along the WI/IL border. The
ridge amplifies a bit on Sat and keeps the sfc front stalled out to
the south. The GFS is less amplified from 12z Sat through 12z Mon
than the ECMWF is as the ECMWF keeps a 500 mb ridge across the upper
Great Lakes while the GFS moves a shortwave through the area. The
ECMWF solution would be a slow solutions with the sfc front
remaining stationary along the WI/IL border through the period which
sets up the area on the north side of the frontal boundary with
overrunning setting up across the area. The highest pops would be in
the southern cwa. Looks like a return to cool and wet for this
forecast period. Temperatures will stay below normal for this
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 732 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019
VFR conditions will continue to dominate through at least midday
tomorrow at all three terminals. Southwest winds will prevail
tomorrow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By later in the
day, KIWD and KCMX could see some showers developing in the
terminal areas, with the higher precip chances looking to hold off
until just beyond this TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019
Winds will remain below 20 knots through this week. There will be a
few fronts passing along the lake bringing light showers. On
Saturday into Sunday, a low pressure system will approach Lake
Superior increasing winds towards 25 to 30 knots. However, there is
uncertainty with this model solution so stay tuned.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
.AVIATION...
With the exception of a few linger showers and storms from
this evening, most of the convection has dissipated. RAP
soundings indicate some potential for elevated showers/storms
near PNC between 6-9Z. This seems possible given the amount of
mid-level clouds (ACCAS) over south central Kansas and north
central/eastern Oklahoma. After the overnight period, mainly dry
conditions will prevail with a breezy southerly wind.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFs... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
across parts of northwest and north-central Oklahoma through about
02z this evening but should mostly avoid the TAF sites with the
exception of KWWR. After these storms dissipate, expect VFR
conditions through the overnight and during the day tomorrow with
winds mainly from the south.
Ware
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019/
DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along
an apparent warm front in northwest Oklahoma. Additional
development along and near the surface boundary seems probable
(the boundary extends from near Woodward to Guthrie to east-
central Oklahoma). The large dewpoint depressions in the far
northwest may help a few storms produce strong winds, while
marginally severe hail will be the main risk elsewhere. The storms
should diminish toward sunset.
The next significant weather feature is a large storm system that
is expected to approach the southern Plains on Friday. This
system will likely produce severe storms over parts of our
forecast area both Friday and Saturday. The higher risk will be in
the west on Friday, and over the entire region on Saturday. There
is still a lot of difference in the details according to the
models, but the overall pattern is supportive of severe storms and
very heavy rain...which probably will cause additional flooding
in areas that just dealt with flooding from previous storms...and
will prolong flooding on those rivers still above flood stage this
weekend.
CmS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 57 81 61 84 / 20 0 0 0
Hobart OK 57 81 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 58 82 61 85 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 57 84 58 86 / 20 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 57 82 61 85 / 20 10 0 0
Durant OK 57 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$