Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/08/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Precipitation efficiency should be even greater this evening as the
Precipitable water values in the layer have increased considerably
from last night, to as much as 1 inch as far west as the Colorado
line. The unstable airmass will continue to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the entire forecast area, before
stronger forcing arrives this evening - spreading excessive rainfall
over the central Kansas counties, to the north of the surface warm
front. Severe weather threat will mainly hinge on the northward
surge of warm air, if any as the forcing increases this evening. If
the front doesn`t lift north, the main threats might be limited to
heavy rain and hail, but become more of wind or even tornado threat
with any northward lift of the frontal zone. At a minimum, the region
around Comanche Barber and Pratt counties should logically have the
highest severe risk. RAP and HRRR produce widespread 2 to 3 inches
rainfall amounts across portion s of the central Kansas counties
(fairly regulated to the areas with the current flash flood watch).
The southwest upper low lifts into Kansas as a damped out wave in
the base of a progressive trough, lifting to the northeast Wednesday
night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
A cooler period is expected with temperatures limited to the 50s
(maybe as cold as upper 40s in west central Kansas) for Thursday.
Lows will plummet into the 40s Thursday morning and 30s by Friday
morning. Only a slow recovery in temperatures is expected through
the weekend with highs reaching normal mid may high values of the
mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast across
southwest and central Kansas tonight affecting KHYS and KDDC and
possibly as far west as KGCK and KLBL. MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys are
expected in the vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning as low level stratus persists along and north of a near
stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Oklahoma northeast
into south central Kansas. East-northeast winds 10 to 20kt will
persist north of the aforementioned frontal boundary through late
this evening with winds becoming more light and variable overnight
as a surface low lifts northeast across southwest and central
Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 68 40 52 / 100 30 20 20
GCK 50 61 40 51 / 90 40 20 20
EHA 50 63 39 51 / 70 30 30 30
LBL 52 66 41 53 / 90 20 20 20
HYS 51 64 40 53 / 90 60 30 20
P28 58 73 45 55 / 100 30 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ046-064>066-
078>081-087>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 407 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Tonight into Thursday...Main forecast concern remained focused on
this period with a strong surface low pressure and associated
warm frontal boundary providing an increase in the potential for
severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. On the contrary,
this has decreased the flooding potential with the bulk of the
rain pushing further north.
The latest model runs continue to trend further north with the
surface low track tomorrow placing a good portions of the CWA
within the warm sector. A nice slug of theta-e advection within
the WAA regime brings in a large rain shield overnight tonight
through the morning hours Wednesday. From the latest HRRR/ESRL
HRRR runs and even the 07.12z HREF, the rain looks to be as far
north as Highway 20 by around 15-17z Wednesday. Certainly plenty
of time for destabilizing to occur across southern Iowa into the
afternoon hours. Redevelopment looks to be between 19-23z, mainly
along and east of I-35 in the southeast portion of the forecast
area.
Severe weather type looks be mainly damaging wind and tornadoes in
the aforementioned location in southeast Iowa where strong deep
layer shear, impressive low-level SRH (150-300 m2/s2), and LCLs
lowering to under 500-750 feet by the afternoon. Plus, the
surface dew points increase into the lower to middle 60s over
southern Iowa as the warm front surges northward tomorrow.
Forecast soundings suggest good backing winds through the profile
(i.e. OTM), especially in the vicinity of the warm front.
Certainly the threat (of tornadoes) is conditional if southeast
Iowa can destabilize just enough to get updrafts to develop.
Agreed with the further north extent of the Slight Risk.
Thursday through Friday...surface high pressure builds into the
region during this time and even though the time frame for
radiational cooling is limited early Friday morning, have
introduced mention for frost.
Saturday into Tuesday...fairly quiet weather over the weekend
with only a weak clipper system to bring light rain showers
Saturday night into Sunday. A gradual warming trend during this
period and the state looks to be back near normal by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Cigs to become MVFR with local IFR aft 04Z. Expect SHRA to develop
aft 09Z with isold to sct TSRA aft 12Z. Should get a break in
precip and possibly cigs aft 17Z through 21Z then TSRA and lowering
cigs should redevelop along/east of I-35.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1005 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
.UPDATE...
The inherited short term forecast is in really good shape, with
just a few changes needed. At this time, I still expect a robust
line of thunderstorms to move through most of North and Central
Texas. Accompanying this line of storms will be a threat for
damaging winds and severe caliber hail (perhaps to 1"). The
potential for a couple of QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but
there are some questions regarding this threat. There will be the
potential for some gusty to strong non-convective winds ahead of
the squall line tonight...especially across the Big Country and
parts of Central Texas.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across Central Texas have
persisted this evening as WAA/moist advection---manifest by
increasing stratus in the GOES nighttime RGB---continues. Given
the paltry deep layer shear, this activity is largely
unorganized, and these showers/storms will pose more of a heavy
rain and gusty wind threat. Convection across western Oklahoma
continues to organize some and will spread eastward with time.
There will be the potential for backbuilding as strong 925mb low
level flow--- already AOA 35 knots per area VWP--ramps up. A new
batch of convection will likely develop in western North Texas and
as this feature unzips southward through the Hill Country, the
increasing shear and sufficient instability should foster a large
line of showers and thunderstorms. The better overlap of
shear/instability will be near and north of I-20 and near and west
of I-35. Damaging straight line winds will be the main hazard as
0-1 km flow increases and should provide some decent momentum to
transfer down to the surface. 700-500mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km
will promote some marginally severe hail risk as well. 0-1 km
shear vector magnitudes are forecast to be on the order of 20 to
30 knots which would support QLCS tornadoes...however...flow in
the 2 to 3 km layer drops substantially and this casts some doubt
on the overall QLCS tornado risk. IF the 2 to 3 km flow can
increase some and/or low level flow backs...the QLCS tornado
threat may increase. There will be a risk for Flooding/Flash
flooding...especially for water-logged areas along and north of
the US HWY 380 corridor. At this time, I feel that the speed of
the convective complex will mitigate the necessity for a Flash
Flood/Flood Watch. IF the complex slows, there could be a more
appreciable Flood/Flash flood risk. Main stem river flooding will
likely continue given the status of area lakes. Given the
confidence in the probability that storms will occur, I`ve nudged
PoPs upward with 100 PoPs north of I-20 after 0600 UTC Wednesday.
With the 0-1 km flow increasing, we will need to monitor the
potential for strong to possibly severe pre-squall winds around
the 0800-1200 UTC time frame west of I-35. I`ve increased the
winds and wind gusts areawide as the latest HRRR and NAM NEST
explicit wind gusts forecasts suggest near High Wind Warning
criteria (again mainly across the Big Country). For now, I`m not
inclined to go with any NPWs after discussion given these models
tendency to inflate wind speeds/gusts, but it`s not out of the
realm of possibility to see non-convective wind gusts to near 50
knots ahead of the main line.
The convective forecast remains largely unchanged after 12 UTC
Wednesday with the expectation that by this time a large line of
showers/storms (some storms may be severe) will be nearing the
I-35 corridor. Areas east of this line during the mid-morning to
early afternoon hours on Wednesday will have the potential for a
slightly greater threat for severe weather thanks to additional
moisture advection and daytime heating. More details on this will
be forthcoming with the overnight forecast package.
Bain
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 716 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/
Concerns---Convection across D10 TRACON at current time...return
of MVFR stratus...and TS during the Wednesday AM push (likely
substantial impacts to D10 airspace).
Isolated convection continued to briefly develop along a
northwestward moving outflow boundary across the Metroplex TAFs.
While I cannot rule out an isolated lightning strike or two, this
potential is too low to continue to mention VCTS in the TAFs and
have replaced this with VCSH for through 0200 UTC. The outflow
boundary may kick up some winds...with gusty winds to near 25
knots. Waco resides southeast of this boundary and the risk for
any rain/storms this evening remains very low.
MVFR stratus will surge northward overnight, though I have
delayed the onset by a couple of hours. Though the complex of
storms across the Gulf of Mexico will decay by midnight, the wind
field associated with this may change moisture trajectories into
North and Central Texas. As such, MVFR stratus likely won`t make
it into Waco until around 0500 UTC and into the Metroplex closer
to 0700 UTC. The IFR potential (outside of thunderstorms) is low,
but non-zero...especially at Waco. For now, I`ll abstain from
mentioning this and examine it in subsequent TAFs.
The main show will be a line of strong to possibly TS rolling
through area terminals. All indications are that activity should
encroach from the northwest and move eastward across most of North
Texas. This will result in substantial impacts to just about all
cornerposts and departure routes. VCTS at all D10 terminals
is expected between the 12 and 17 UTC....with a 3 hour TEMPO TSRA
group from 13-16 UTC. There will be a risk for a wind shift to
the northwest associated with TS along with wind gusts to near 30
knots...though higher gusts will be possible. A small hail threat
will exist, but confidence to include in the TAF is too low. TS
at Waco will be a few hours later with strong winds expected with
TS. Erratic and variable winds are possible a few hours after
TSRA, but south to southeast surface winds will return in the
afternoon hours. South winds could gusts as high as 25 knots.
Bain
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/
/Tonight/
Main concern through the late afternoon and evening hours will be
thunderstorm potential generally east of I-35 and south of I-20.
Convection across southeast Texas has slowly drifted to the
north this afternoon into southeast parts of the forecast area.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis paints MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg
across the area. As these storms slowly drift to the north, strong
thunderstorms will be possible and can`t completely rule out a few
severe storms through the early evening hours. The main hazards
would be large hail and gusty winds if a severe storm threat were
to materialize. A low, end isolated flooding threat could develop
as well due to higher rainfall rates and/or any training of
storms. Latest CAMs in decent agreement that shower and storms
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating, and will continue
with low pops through 03z.
Attention will turn to the west for tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Thunderstorms have all ready erupted this afternoon across
the Texas Panhandle and South Plains along the front and dryline.
As the evening progresses, thunderstorms will begin to march
eastward and develop into a squall line. These storms will enter
the west and northwest parts of the forecast area overnight,
likely between 3am and 5am. By the end of the period, the complex
may be approaching the Metroplex. Main threat with the storms
will be damaging winds, however a low, non-zero tornado threat
may exist within the squall line. Lastly, some locally heavy rain
will be possible along the Red River overnight which may result
in some minor flooding issues due to the recent rains and saturated
soils.
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/
/Wednesday through Next Week/
A shortwave should be crossing the Texas panhandle on its way into
the Southern Plains at the start of the period. Convection
associated with this feature will have likely already developed
upscale into a QLCS, with recent guidance indicating that these
storms will be encroaching on the I-35 corridor around daybreak.
The pre-storm environment indicates that a severe storm threat
will exist along the line with damaging winds the primary
concern. However, brief spin-up tornadoes will also be a
possibility, particularly if we get any backing of the surface
winds ahead of the line of storms. In addition, even though
activity should be progressive in nature, PWATs in the 1.50 to
1.75 range will make localized flash flooding a possibility due to
recent rains and saturated soils. This would be most problematic
if training storms occur or if the line of storms slows its
forward progress at any point.
A weakening trend may occur as activity pushes farther south and
east due to the better forcing for ascent lifting northeast of the
region as the shortwave heads for the Midwest. That said, due to
better instability in place, strong to severe storms will remain
possible across the southeasternmost counties with large hail and
damaging winds possible.
A second shortwave disturbance is progged to move across
northwest Texas late tomorrow night into Thursday. This may
ignite another round of showers and storms late Wednesday into
early Thursday. Activity will be limited to areas east of the I-35
corridor and should be less coverage than the previous round. A
strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out, though the environment
will be less favorable having recently been scoured by the
Wednesday activity.
A cold front will then push through the region on Thursday as the
shortwave races off to the east. Additional convection along the
front may briefly affect the far southern zones, but most of he
frontal activity will develop south of the region where sufficient
moisture and instability will be in place. A cool-down can be
expected behind the front, with temperatures falling into the 50s
across most of the area (a few upper 40s across the northwest)
Thursday night.
By Friday, the next upper low will be digging over Southern
California. The resulting flow aloft will lead to increasing
isentropic lift above the cool surface layer and additional
chances of showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. The
Friday precipitation should be focused mainly over the southern
half of the region in the vicinity of a weak disturbance embedded
in the southwest flow aloft. A second and stronger shortwave will
pass across the area on Saturday, producing more widespread
precipitation across the region. Thunderstorms will be elevated in
nature above the frontal layer, but still may be capable of
producing quarter size hail. These additional rains will likely
lead to additional river flooding and possible localized flash
flooding in heavier storms. At this time, we do not plan on any
flood watch products, but may need to consider one in future
forecast packages depending on how much rain falls tomorrow.
Either way, the presence of clouds and rain will keep temperatures
on the cool side both Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Precipitation will exit to the east late Saturday as the
shortwave swings across the Mississippi Valley. Sunday will
therefore be relatively dry and pleasant as a shortwave ridge
develops overhead, with lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid
to upper 70s. The West Coast low will finally advance east,
reaching West Texas Monday or next Tuesday. This will bring yet
another round of showers and storms during the first half of next
week.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 79 66 76 53 / 60 80 20 10 20
Waco 70 77 67 78 54 / 30 60 30 20 50
Paris 68 74 66 77 51 / 40 80 50 20 20
Denton 69 79 63 73 50 / 80 80 20 5 10
McKinney 69 76 66 75 51 / 60 80 30 10 20
Dallas 70 79 67 78 53 / 60 80 30 10 20
Terrell 70 76 66 79 52 / 40 80 40 20 30
Corsicana 69 77 66 79 54 / 30 70 50 20 50
Temple 70 78 68 80 54 / 30 70 40 30 60
Mineral Wells 68 82 58 72 50 / 70 80 10 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
24/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
831 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Showers so far this evening have been limited to areas from about
Quincy to Danville northward, with skies partly cloudy at times
across areas south of I-72. Main cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is out over Kansas this evening, though some recent
development has been taking place over northern Missouri. This
latter activity will keep likely showers over the northern CWA
through much of the night. Further south, there has also some
recent thunderstorm development over south central Missouri, a bit
faster than recent HRRR runs alluded to, though in the correct
location. The HRRR expands this activity as it lifts northeast,
and will be a threat to the western CWA after 3-4 am.
Forecasts were recently updated to update these precip trends. A
little downward adjustment in temperatures was needed north of
I-74, where temperatures did not get quite as high this afternoon
as earlier expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
The stationary boundary remains planted over south central
Illinois this afternoon, allowing a wave system to ride on the
northern fringe. This is bringing rain showers to locations north
of the I-72 corridor this afternoon, and will continue to bring
showers over the next couple of hours. This wave will shift
northeast of the area this evening, bringing a brief break in wet
weather. Additional rainfall in central Kansas will continue to
track northeast, brushing the NWern CWA, mostly impacting northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin overnight.
High pressure situated over the northern Great Lakes, will
continue to slowly shift out of the region overnight, allowing a
Low pressure system in the Rockies to finally start ejecting out
into the Plains. This will lift the stationary boundary through
central Illinois on Wednesday, as a warm front. Strong southerly
winds will return, Wednesday along with an increase in
temperatures well ahead of the Low core.
As the warm front lifts north, and destabilization of the lower
atmosphere occurs, storms are expected to develop along a north-
south line and shift through the Midwest Wednesday afternoon and
evening. SPC recently upgraded the NWern CWA and west central
Illinois into a SLGT Risk for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Later forecasts will monitor for the potential of an
eastward movement of the SLGT, but that will depending on any
potential breaks in clouds that provide sunshine, and how much WAA
arrives into the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
A line of storms is expected to push through the region Wednesday
afternoon/evening, as moisture is lifted into the region from the
Gulf of Mexico. Once this slides eastward overnight, the Low core
will rush into northern Illinois. Winds will remain elevated ahead
of the cold front Wednesday night, and continue to gust from the
south into Thursday morning for locations in central and southeast
Illinois. A second line of storms is expected to slide into
southern Illinois early Thursday morning. This line could bring
strong storms into southeastern locations, however this will also
be a line to watch as diurnal effects could play a substantial
role in the strength. As the frontal passage occurs Thursday
afternoon, more storms should develop as the atmosphere remains
unstable, but the strength of these storms will once again depend
on the available destabilization of the low levels.
After the front finally pushes east of the region Thursday night,
High pressure from Canada will quickly drop into the central US.
This will overspread drier conditions across much of the region to
end the week, and begin the weekend. Temperatures behind the front
will be cooler, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
As the High dominates the Midwest weather, it will also hold a wet
weather pattern across the southeast US through the first half of
the weekend. Then another Low pressure system will slide from
Canada into the Great Lakes region, sinking a cold front with it
into the Midwest. Model uncertainty exists with respect to the
amount of available moisture for any chance of shower activity on
Mother`s Day. This will be monitored with later model runs. High
pressure returns at the start of next week and will last through
the beginning of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Main concern in the short term is with a band of MVFR ceilings
north of a stationary front, primarily impacting KPIA/KBMI.
Ceilings below 2,000 feet will prevail in this area a good portion
of the night, but some improvement will begin late at KBMI as the
front begins a northward push. By about 15Z, all sites should be
VFR, and winds will be turning to the southeast/south and becoming
gusty by midday. Later in the period, a line of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and push into western Illinois. Have
only included VCTS at KPIA/KSPI at the moment, with areas further
east more likely to see this arrive toward 00Z or later.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Geelhart
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
As of 20Z Tuesday afternoon, an upper low was centered across
eastern AZ with cyclonic flow overspreading the Plains. Similar to
the previous days, a stationary front is positioned across the
forecast area. At this hour, the front extended from east-central
NM, northeastward to near ICT, continuing northeastward to just
north of EMP and eastward to central MO. An outflow boundary has
become diffuse across northeastern OK and latest satellite depicts
low-level moisture surging northward into southeastern KS. Two areas
of thunderstorm activity have developed with the first across the TX
panhandle -- near the triple point, and the second across south-
central KS -- along the stationary boundary.
To this point, the activity across southern KS has remain elevated
and relatively unorganized. RAP forecast soundings depict over the
next 1-2 hours that storms should become surface-based as they
slowly progress east-northeastward. The biggest question mark over
the next 4-6 hours is whether storms can remain surface-based into
the area. Latest mesoanalysis suggests upwards of 500 J/kg MLCAPE
with little inhibition exists south of the aforementioned boundary
across portions of Lyon, Coffey, and Anderson counties. RAP forecast
soundings predict continued sfc heating will increase MLCAPE to 1000-
1500 J/kg by 22-23Z across these counties. Albeit weak midlevel
winds, sufficient veering through the profile will contribute to 30-
40 kts of effective shear which could poise a damaging wind and hail
threat. While effective SRH is progged to near 200 m2/s2 along the
boundary this afternoon/evening, surging cold-pools should should
largely limit the tornado threat. As nocturnal cooling ensues this
evening, these storms should weaken.
Our attention then turns to the TX panhandle region where
thunderstorms have developed. Short term solutions progress this
thunderstorm activity east-northeastward along the aforementioned
surface boundary into portions of southern KS. In addition, an MCV
is progged to develop as the MCS progresses eastward. This MCV
combined with a strengthening LLJ should allow for MCS maintenance
into the CWA late this evening into the overnight. Generally MUCAPE
is progged to range from 800 to 1100 J/kg, from north to south
across the forecast area. Effective shear within the elevated layer
is forecast to range from 40-50 kts, which should limit the ability
for cold-pools to surge well-ahead of updrafts. Forecast soundings
are progged to remain largely coupled through the evening/overnight,
as a result damaging winds are possible with the MCS through the
night, especially along and south of I-70. Flash-flooding could
become a concern with most areas having 1 hour flash-flood guidance
near 1" and 3 hour guidance near 1.5". Using a persistence forecast
from the past 2 days, the strongest storms were producing hourly
rainfall rates exceeding 1". Subsidence behind the MCS/MCV will
likely decrease shower/storm coverage by mid/late Wednesday morning.
Transitioning into Wednesday afternoon, the main upper low is
progged to eject into the southern and central Plains. Deepening of
the lee cyclone will lift the front back northward with its position
from the TX panhandle northeastward into far northeast KS. By mid to
late afternoon, guidance suggests 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
reside along and southeast the boundary. Effective shear values near
40 kts will foster organized updrafts. Initial convective mode
should be supercellular with eventual upscale growth into an MCS.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with the
strongest storms. Furthermore, the flood/flash-flood threat will
persist through Wednesday night with an additional round of heavy
rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Beyond Wednesday, a much quieter weather patter will ensue with
surface and midlevel ridging overspreading the central Plains.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the remainder of the week
with highs on Thursday only in the 50s. Temperatures are likely to
return to the 70s by the weekend. Friday morning temperatures will
be quite cold with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The next
chance for rainfall arrives Sunday as a northern stream trough
traverses the northern Plains and drags and attendant surface cold
front through the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019
Low end VFR to MVFR conditions expected before the main wave lifts
out into central Kansas, developing a swath of TSRA. Short term
models prog this activity to bring IFR conditions to terminals in
the 04Z-06Z time frame. Gusty easterly winds veer towards the
south at KTOP/KFOE with more vrb winds at KMHK as the sfc low
passes overhead. Activity gradually ends west to east by 15Z.
Additional scattered TSRA is possible towards the end of the
forecast period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto