Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019
Satellite imagery shows widespread stratus completely covering SW
Kansas at midday. A tricky temperature forecast was anticipated
today, but it appears the cold air and stratus will win the battle
today. 12z NAM and various CAMs show the frontal boundary
strengthening along a Boise City-Guymon-Perryton line through late
this afternoon, and it appears the warm sector will fail to reach
even far SW Kansas. Already reduced afternoon temperatures north,
but will need to do the same soon for the southern zones. North of
the boundary, stratus will hold through sunset, with temperatures
struggling through the 50s. Models show consistency developing
scattered convection developing across eastern Colorado this
afternoon, and subsequently spreading east through SW Kansas this
evening. Have high confidence in this evolution, and continued
with pop grids in the likely category through this evening.
Another beneficial rain of 0.10-0.25 inch appears probable for
many zones. Other models are wetter (such as the ECMWF) but appear
unrealistic considering how quickly forcing will spread across
tonight.
With the cold sector and stable boundary layer holding tough,
surface-based severe convection is not expected in SW Kansas
through this evening. Where stratus is eroding across SE Colorado,
initiating convection will have a chance to root at least near the
boundary layer late this afternoon/early this evening. Convection
will move eastward, but become elevated/undercut by the surging
cold front this evening. As such, the primary risk from any
strong to severe convection would be marginally severe hail, and
the 5% hail probabilities from SPC look appropriate. At the time
of this discussion, the latest HRRR iteration is back to
developing a discrete (but elevated) supercell across the SW zones
around 7 pm this evening. Any such cell would try to ride the
boundary, but with the boundary surging south this evening, the
severe threat would be limited to hail.
North winds will increase sharply this evening, in response to
1025 mb surface high building into Nebraska/NW Kansas through
sunrise Thursday. Gusts to 40 mph are expected per the stronger,
preferred MAV guidance. The strongest winds are expected along the
GCK-LBL (US 83) corridor. Post- frontal showers/isolated thunder
will be exiting the SE zones around sunrise Thursday.
Cool stable surface high pressure ridge axis will be in control
Thursday, with zero threat of thunderstorms during the daylight
hours. Temperatures will clearly be below normal Thursday, but how
far below is the question. Post-frontal morning stratus will
again prevail, and temperatures will be a function of how fast the
stratus can erode through the afternoon. With early May solar
angles now, optimistically selected the warmer MAV guidance in the
lower 60s. At any rate, winds will be relatively light beneath
the surface ridge.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
A pronounced warming trend is expected Friday through Monday, with
both morning lows and afternoon highs warming up through the
period. Much more spring-like conditions will result, with lows in
the 50s and highs in the 80s by Sunday and Monday.
A weak passing shortwave is consistently progged by the models to
pass early Friday, offering another round of beneficial rain
showers. Instability will be slim to none, so did not include
thunder in the grids.
Guidance also remains consistent, developing WNW flow aloft over
the weekend, in response to another strong/cold cyclone near
Hudson Bay, and broad ridging up the spine of the Rockies. Weak
convection from the higher terrain/Colorado may arrive in the
western counties late Saturday, and retained pops for this. Most
of Saturday will be dry and pleasant for most locations. Rising
heights/thickness will send us into the 80s Sunday afternoon. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible along the developing dryline
late Sunday, but the early estimate is that this is more likely
in the Texas panhandle.
Southwest flow aloft develops aloft on Monday, in response to a
strong closed low near Los Angeles. The dryline will be
established by Monday, and it appears we will hang onto the warm
sector in SW Kansas through Monday afternoon. As such, severe
thunderstorms are possible mainly eastern counties Monday
afternoon.
12z medium range models including ECMWF develop a broad western
trough over the western/SW U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday.
Diffluence/divergence aloft and strong lift will increase with
time as shortwaves from this trough approach. Increased rain and
thunderstorm coverage early next week is a given. However, the
threat of severe weather in Kansas is much more subdued. 12z ECMWF
drives another cold front through Tuesday, with the cold stable
sector progged to prevail in SW KS through Wednesday. Early in the
game, this favors rain and elevated thunder in SW KS, and
surface-based severe across Texas and Oklahoma. Models are still
debating how to handle this ejecting upper low, and
mesoscale/convective details will have a lot to do with day-to-day
frontal position. 12z ECMWF suggests cool stable air will hold on
in Kansas even through Thursday and Friday, despite persistent
troughing to the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
Widespread IFR and even LIFR conditions will continue tonight
behind the latest cold front. Winds will be out of the north-
northeast, increasing in speed to 18 to 23 knots sustained at
times with higher gusts. The best time frame for thunderstorms
will be a 3-5 hour period from roughly 02Z to 06Z later this
evening. Scattered showers are then expected thereafter through
roughly daybreak. The ceiling will hover near the IFR/MVFR
threshold tomorrow morning through midday with the greater chance
for IFR being LBL terminal.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 61 46 69 / 80 10 40 30
GCK 40 63 45 71 / 70 0 30 20
EHA 40 61 45 71 / 40 0 20 20
LBL 41 61 47 70 / 70 10 40 30
HYS 41 61 44 68 / 60 0 50 20
P28 49 62 50 68 / 70 20 40 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
919 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Loss of heating has allowed for convection over the higher terrain
of Mexico to wane this evening along the Rio Grande with attention
for rain chances tonight remaining focused across Central Texas into
the Hill Country. Aircraft soundings out of Austin and San Antonio
showed a gradual weakening/lifting capping inversion late this
afternoon, but latest soundings have shown very little overall change
in the cap the past 1-2 hours across the metro areas. Ongoing
convection across Hamilton/Bosque Counties does indicate the cap is
weaker just north of the Austin metro though. Have maintained a
mention of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the remainder
of the evening across the Central Texas counties as a broad vorticity
maxima evident on SPC Mesoanalysis continues to lift across the
Edwards Plateau.
Farther north, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) draped roughly
along the Interstate 20 corridor has produced a series of outflow
boundaries evident on both the KDYX and KFWS radars. Simple
extrapolation of these boundaries` current movements would place them
into the Hill Country/Central Texas between 3-5 AM (but modification
of their associated cold pools may result in a slower arrival... or
keep these boundaries from reaching the forecast area entirely). Will
have to watch the southward progress of these features as they may
serve as a potential focus for additional rain development overnight
and possibly result in a brief wind shift/slightly cooler
temperatures than presently forecast across Central Texas.
Regardless, strong southerly flow will mean a few streamer type
showers develop east of the Interstate 35 corridor ahead of these
boundaries overnight tonight. High resolution guidance has
intermittently shown the outflow or possibly the MCS reaching the
Central Texas counties before sunrise and should this solution pan
out, another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may clip areas generally north of a Mason to San Marcos
to Eagle Lake line during the pre-dawn hours. Have kept a mention of
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for these areas
overnight with generally dry conditions expected farther west.
Forecast soundings indicate that the cap persists overnight across
the region and expect this to temper the intensity of any activity
that is able to move into the region from North Texas, but stronger
cells may still be capable of a brief hail or gusty wind threat with
observed mid-level lapse rates on both the FWD and DRT 00Z soundings
in excess of 8 C/km.
Persistent southerly flow will also allow lower clouds to fill in
across the region, keeping evening and overnight temperatures warm.
Austin Bergstrom, Austin Mabry, and San Antonio all have the
potential to set or tie record high minimums for May 1 should their
temperatures not fall below 74 degrees through the remainder of today.
Overnight temperatures are only expected to fall into the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/
AVIATION...
Overcast clouds are currently bisecting the area with SCT/BKN VFR
ceilings at AUS and OVC VFR skies at SAT/SSF. DRT has waffled back
and forth between VFR and MVFR through the evening, but generally VFR
skies are forecast into the early evening hours at all terminals.
The greatest chances for precipitation and especially thunderstorms
will be at DRT and AUS through the evening hours with isolated storms
currently ongoing west of DRT. While rain chances should end by 06z
at all terminals ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR and possibly
IFR levels in a few spots. Have kept prevailing MVFR cigs with SCT
IFR mentioned due to uncertainty in how far ceilings will drop and
based on a persistence forecast due to the MVFR ceilings the last
few mornings. Ceilings will be slow to improve during the day
Thursday but VFR should return late in the afternoon. Tomorrow should
only see a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm, not
warranting a mention in the TAFs at this point. Precipitation
chances do begin to increase tomorrow evening so VCTS has been
included in the AUS TAF. Winds will generally be out of the southeast
around 10 knots through this TAF period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Forecast this afternoon and evening looks to be drier than expected
with the cap holding on. Most of the convection over the last couple
of hours has initiated well north of the area. CAMs continue to
develop convection over west central Texas into this evening but are
pessimistic on rain chances for our area. The ARW is the outlier
which develops a robust line of storms through the northeastern
parts of the region, but is doubtful with current development. The
last few model runs of the HRRR develops a supercell type complex and
moves it into Val Verde County just after 22Z, but confidence is low
on this actually materializing.
Rain chances hang around for Thursday but remain relatively low for
the period with broad troughing off to the west and in between
pulses of energy that are ejected out over the state from Mexico.
Have kept 30 PoP in for the northern portion of CWA for the day
Thursday. Late Thursday night, the next upper level shortwave
disturbance translates out of Mexico.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Friday is looking like the best chances for rain in the forecast
period. Persistent southeast flow off the Gulf has primed the region
with elevated moisture and sufficient available energy with forecast
sounding throughout the region holding 2500+ CAPE. The shortwave
disturbance moving over the state Friday looks to put forcing farther
south than previous ones. Timing of convection is highly dependent
on the timing of the shortwave but elevated rain chances exist all
day Friday.
Rain chances push into the eastern CWA and out of the region heading
into Saturday. Shortwave ridging tries to establish itself over south
central Texas late Saturday and into early next week but rain
chances look to make a return Monday as an embedded shortwave moves
over the state once again. Both GFS and ECMWF has this occurring
Monday but may need to reassess PoP chances as this time period gets
closer. Another upper level low approaches from the Pacific toward
the end of the period bringing chances for rain once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 85 68 80 64 / 30 30 40 70 70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 30 30 40 70 70
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 20 20 30 60 60
Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 65 77 61 / 30 30 50 70 60
Del Rio Intl Airport 71 89 68 85 65 / 20 20 50 50 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 83 67 79 63 / 40 30 40 70 70
Hondo Muni Airport 72 90 68 83 63 / 10 20 40 50 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 30 20 30 60 70
La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 87 70 83 66 / 30 20 30 60 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 69 81 65 / 20 20 40 60 60
Stinson Muni Airport 73 87 70 82 66 / 20 20 30 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
841 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Early area of showers which persisted longer than expected has
moved east and well offshore this evening. Models in agreement
that shower chances remain slim in the wake of this activity until
late tonight with pronounced cap between h85-h7 at CRP at 00z
/which is much less but still present around h7 at LCH/ under 8
c/km mid level lapse rates.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about later tonight/Thu
morning with regards to linear MCS sliding south as it shifts
eastward across nrn/nern TX tonight. Latest Texas Tech WRF and
HRRR both trend towards weakening this activity as it approaches
far northern counties early Thu morning and very well may stay
north of sern TX altogether. Have adjusted rain chances downwards
until well after midnight with chance wording over the far north
and slight chance elsewhere towards morning.
Winds over Galveston Bay increased with gusts over 30 mph this
evening and we added Advisory wording to the forecast there.
Expect these will diminish some, but winds will remain breezy
through the night.
Evans
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/
AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR and possible IFR ceilings are expected tonight.
Could see some lingering SHRA early this evening, and possible
TSRA overnight through maybe early tomorrow morning mainly up
north (models are offering a wide variety of scenarios). Have
VFR conditions developing tomorrow, but some MVFR ceilings might
linger around. Will also need to watch for possible SHRA/TSRA
development tomorrow afternoon. Not a whole lot of forecaster
confidence with the 00Z TAF package. 42
SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]...
The main concern for the forecast looks to be Friday as a frontal
boundary pushes into the region and jet streak/vorticity maximum
work in tandem to cause quite a bit of lift thus eroding the cap.
Precip Water values get up to 1.8 to 2.0 inches to along with
stronger moisture transport due to a decent low level jet. All of
the synoptic models hit SE Texas with heavy rainfall and rainfall
totals in the 1 to 2 inch range. With that there could be some
isolated 3-4 inch amounts. WPC has put the northwest part of SE
Texas in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. It looks like the
main area for heavy rainfall will be north of I-10. While we
cannot rule out some severe weather like hail/damaging winds, this
looks like a decent set up for heavy rainfall across the area.
Antecedent conditions do not look to bad and most of the area has
been dry. At a minimum, the area has dried out between rain events
such that the ground can handle a decent amount of rainfall
before runoff makes conditions worse. This means there will be
more than anything just a typical urban/street flood threat with
flash flooding in the typical low areas if higher rain rates are
achieved. It is possible for some thunderstorm activity to linger
into Saturday afternoon but the model trends have been for most of
the activity to be out of the area.
LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...
Weak ridging aloft is expected Sunday into Monday so kept the
forecast on the dry side. Monday into Tuesday may be another
period of thunderstorm activity. GFS and Canadian are showing a
strong short wave trough coming out of Mexico and producing
thunderstorm activity. ECMWF is not as strong with the trough so
does not produce as much rainfall. Still this will be another
system to monitor. Systems coming out of Mexico have a habit of
over-producing and sneaky systems. This will all depend upon how
the models resolve features out over the Pacific and move across
Mexico. Models can very easily lose these features from run to
run. For now we will go with 40/50 PoPs mainly Monday night into
Tuesday but the timing could very well change quite a bit
depending upon model initialization from run to run.
Overpeck
MARINE...
Weak low pressure over the central U.S. and high pressure over
the southeast U.S. will maintain a moderate to occasionally strong
onshore wind into Thursday. Seas well offshore will remain right
at SCA criteria at 6 to 7 feet, so have extended the SCA and
caution statements into Thursday morning. High pressure will build
into the central plains on Thursday and this will push a cold
front into the state. The front will stall well north of the
coastal waters and onshore winds will persist. A secondary surge
of high pressure will push the front further south on Saturday
afternoon. It is still unclear if the weak front will clear the
coast on Saturday afternoon, however the pressure gradient will
relax significantly as the front nears with lighter winds next
weekend. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 85 69 81 65 / 40 30 30 80 80
Houston (IAH) 74 86 71 83 68 / 30 10 10 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 74 79 71 / 20 10 10 20 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Galveston Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
Low confidence forecast this evening predicated on mesoscale
convective complex ongoing to our west. Thinking there is
potential for TSRA overnight, especially western/central
terminals in the 02/06-14Z time frame, so tried to handle with
TEMPO groups. SHRA with embedded TS increase in coverage area wide
after 02/15Z with increasing likelihood of at least intermittent
MVFR cigs.
Cooper
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 526 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019)
UPDATE...
Updated forecast based on observed trends so far this afternoon.
Hi-res CAMs are still struggling to resolve the mesoscale pattern
with ongoing convection across portions of OK and TX. That said,
still think there is a sensible shot that at least the remnants
of this mesoscale complex will push in from the west overnight.
As mentioned earlier, point forecast soundings do show capping
with convection likely remaining elevated through tonight.
Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible where
capping is weaker and/or precip loading can provide enough
downward force to overcome near-surface static stability. Flooding
will also be possible with heavier storms as well as areas that
see any convective training.
Cooper
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night
Thunderstorms and showers moved through the state today and
severely limited high temperatures today. Showers and
thunderstorms pushed south and east of the state shortly after
noon. Started to see breaks in the clouds across the western
half of the state and will see temperatures begin to warm
across this area. 12z models have done a poor job with
afternoon high temperatures today...which will likely have
trickle down effects to the forecast during the overnight hours.
HRRR has consistently been showing future development across NW
Arkansas shortly after 06z...with a stronger storm system
approaching SW Arkansas shortly before 12z. Model soundings around
12z do show that a cap will be in place which would somewhat
limit severe weather chances. However, if the cap is able to
erode...severe weather could be possible. With this storm system,
the main threat would be damaging straight line winds. Thursday
afternoon should be fairly similar to what was seen today with
precipitation coming to an end from west to east.
Yet another round of precipitation will be seen on Friday as
another upper level disturbance moves through the area and keeps
rain chances in the area to round out the short term.
65
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
The long term portion of the forecast will remain unsettled for the
majority of the period. Rain chances will linger through the
early portion of the weekend as a shortwave trough advances
eastward through the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. This storm system should pass through the state on Saturday,
bringing with it a surface cold front. Although the frontal boundary
is expected to stall just south of the state, we`ll
see a few days of quieter weather as more zonal flow aloft takes
over. This will provide westerly flow aloft as weak ridging begins
to build over the Southwest US.
Unfortunately, rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday
through Wednesday as quasi-stationary boundaries around the
area provide a focus for convection initiation, and southerly winds
help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Due to the warm
and moist air in place resulting in instability across the Natural
State, have included thunderstorms in the forecast.
Despite mostly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms through
the majority of the period, expect warm temperatures each day with
highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.
Cross
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Conway-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...COOPER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
Main concerns in the near term will be with storm development late
this afternoon and tonight.
Atmosphere recovering from big cold pool push from last night`s
convection. Shortwave ridge aloft is keeping things quiet in our
area. However, another upper level impulse/shortwave will move
northeast from the Red River reaching northeast OK by early evening.
Most guidance breaks out scattered convection over southeast
KS/northeast OK toward 00z/7pm. By this time, 2000-3000 j/kg cape
and around 30kts m/l 0-6km shear (KJLN vcnty from the HRRR) will
support either multicells or supercells this evening and overnight
as the shortwave continues to lift northeast through the region. In
general storm development will be more favored in/near the
convergence/frontal zone that extends from northeast OK into
southwest and central MO. While hail/wind will be the main
potential hazards, couldn`t rule out a tornado if the cells can
remain rooted near the sfc. Unlike yesterday, it looks the
convection will be more scattered in nature. Relying somewhat on the
HRRR for the near term fcst mixed with some consensus short term
guidance.
The frontal boundary is progged to shift south on Thursday and
overall better chances for shower/tstms will be more confined to
our southern cwfa. Another upper level impulse or remnant MCV will
move through southern MO during the afternoon with scattered
storms. Progged cape/instability is not expected to be as strong,
but mucape over 1000 j/kg will support hail and potentially a wind
threat if some sfc based cape can be realized.
Will extend the flash flood watch through the day Thursday. We have
watches and warnings everywhere along with most of our river
forecast points under warnings. It doesn`t look like the precip will
be as widespread over the next couple of days, but we will have some
locally heavy rain with storm clusters.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
Friday-Saturday: A shortwave over the eastern Rockies now will lift
northeast, and another now moving into the Pacific northwest will
move into the central/northern Rockies Thu night and into the
Midwest and MO Fri night. The sfc front will lift back to the north
Fri. Showers/tstms will develop ahead of the shortwave before ending
Fri night. Progged instability doesn`t look too impressive at this
point, but we don`t need the additional rainfall. Will continue to
monitor hydro through this period. The precip should finally exit
off to the east Sat. Total rainfall in the forecast through
Sat generally ranges one inch in the northwest cwfa to two inches
in the southeast.
Sunday: Looks quiet with sfc high pressure.
Sunday night-Wednesday: Sfc low pressure moves into the western
Plains w/moisture return into the Plains. Flat ridging aloft will
amplify over the central CONUS as a closed upper low develops over
the southwest. Convective coverage may be more limited but will
continue rain chances through this period with above normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening
and through the overnight hours. A storm system will spread
across the region bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities
with moderate to heavy rainfall. Slowly improving flight
conditions are expected late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
952 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Line of elevated storms will be moving out of LeFlore Co in the
next half hour. These storms have left a fairly stable airmass in
their wake and will thus cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
SE OK counties prior to 10 PM. Trailing area of moderate rain with
some embedded lightning will also persist south of I-40 for a few
more hours before gradually moving east. Additional storms have
developed over western KS this evening along a cold front which
will push into northeast OK later tonight. Earlier runs of HRRR
were much more bullish with expanding convection along the
boundary overnight, but latest runs have trended in keeping the
bulk of the significant rainfall back to the west and north. POPS
will be trended down some across parts of northeast OK in the
06-12z time frame, but will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect
through 12z given the uncertainty and the highly saturated ground
from recent rainfall.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR overnight tonight. A complex
of showers and thunderstorms this evening is most likely to affect
KFSM. MVFR ceilings will prevail at all sites Thursday, with
another complex of showers and storms likely to affect all sites
from late tonight until around midday Thursday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Currently keeping a close eye on the clusters of strong/severe
thunderstorms ongoing across south central OK. This activity has
developing in an area of very unstable air just ahead of a surface
front draped from southwest OK into north central OK. Available
instability drops off significantly across eastern OK, so the
storms have shown signs of weakening and becoming less organized
at they move rather slowly north and northeast. This is also
supported by recent HRRR output. Still not out of the question to
see a few storms move into parts of the area this evening, with
the best potential of any severe storms being across parts of far
southeast OK.
Short term guidance also suggests that additional
showers/thunderstorms may develop overnight near the frontal
boundary across northeast OK, with the activity shifting east
into northwest AR later tonight. Southwesterly low/mid level flow
could encourage some training of storms, so have opted to expand
the flash flood watch through the night for the entire forecast
area. Most locations saw around 2"-4" inches of rain from
yesterdays convection (with locally higher amounts of 4"-6") any
additional rainfall could result in further flooding.
Precipitation will gradually shift east and southeast by Thursday
afternoon.
By Friday, another upper wave will move from the Rockies into the
Plains by the afternoon. Chances of showers/storms will continue,
with the atmosphere remaining uncapped/weakly unstable and moist
(PWATs around 1.5"). Took a broadbrush approach for PoPs by
Friday, although these numbers may tick upward with subsequent
forecasts.
Aside from some early rain chances Saturday, the weekend is
looking mostly dry at this time. The patter becomes a bit more
active next week, with storm chances returning by Tue/Wed as
surface boundary potentially nudges into the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 73 59 73 / 50 30 30 50
FSM 65 78 64 75 / 80 70 20 50
MLC 64 79 62 73 / 80 50 20 50
BVO 57 71 54 72 / 60 30 30 50
FYV 63 75 59 71 / 40 70 30 50
BYV 63 74 59 71 / 30 70 30 50
MKO 63 76 61 73 / 30 50 30 50
MIO 60 71 58 72 / 30 50 30 50
F10 63 76 60 72 / 50 40 30 50
HHW 65 80 64 73 / 80 60 20 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14