Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Satellite imagery shows widespread stratus completely covering SW Kansas at midday. A tricky temperature forecast was anticipated today, but it appears the cold air and stratus will win the battle today. 12z NAM and various CAMs show the frontal boundary strengthening along a Boise City-Guymon-Perryton line through late this afternoon, and it appears the warm sector will fail to reach even far SW Kansas. Already reduced afternoon temperatures north, but will need to do the same soon for the southern zones. North of the boundary, stratus will hold through sunset, with temperatures struggling through the 50s. Models show consistency developing scattered convection developing across eastern Colorado this afternoon, and subsequently spreading east through SW Kansas this evening. Have high confidence in this evolution, and continued with pop grids in the likely category through this evening. Another beneficial rain of 0.10-0.25 inch appears probable for many zones. Other models are wetter (such as the ECMWF) but appear unrealistic considering how quickly forcing will spread across tonight. With the cold sector and stable boundary layer holding tough, surface-based severe convection is not expected in SW Kansas through this evening. Where stratus is eroding across SE Colorado, initiating convection will have a chance to root at least near the boundary layer late this afternoon/early this evening. Convection will move eastward, but become elevated/undercut by the surging cold front this evening. As such, the primary risk from any strong to severe convection would be marginally severe hail, and the 5% hail probabilities from SPC look appropriate. At the time of this discussion, the latest HRRR iteration is back to developing a discrete (but elevated) supercell across the SW zones around 7 pm this evening. Any such cell would try to ride the boundary, but with the boundary surging south this evening, the severe threat would be limited to hail. North winds will increase sharply this evening, in response to 1025 mb surface high building into Nebraska/NW Kansas through sunrise Thursday. Gusts to 40 mph are expected per the stronger, preferred MAV guidance. The strongest winds are expected along the GCK-LBL (US 83) corridor. Post- frontal showers/isolated thunder will be exiting the SE zones around sunrise Thursday. Cool stable surface high pressure ridge axis will be in control Thursday, with zero threat of thunderstorms during the daylight hours. Temperatures will clearly be below normal Thursday, but how far below is the question. Post-frontal morning stratus will again prevail, and temperatures will be a function of how fast the stratus can erode through the afternoon. With early May solar angles now, optimistically selected the warmer MAV guidance in the lower 60s. At any rate, winds will be relatively light beneath the surface ridge. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 A pronounced warming trend is expected Friday through Monday, with both morning lows and afternoon highs warming up through the period. Much more spring-like conditions will result, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 80s by Sunday and Monday. A weak passing shortwave is consistently progged by the models to pass early Friday, offering another round of beneficial rain showers. Instability will be slim to none, so did not include thunder in the grids. Guidance also remains consistent, developing WNW flow aloft over the weekend, in response to another strong/cold cyclone near Hudson Bay, and broad ridging up the spine of the Rockies. Weak convection from the higher terrain/Colorado may arrive in the western counties late Saturday, and retained pops for this. Most of Saturday will be dry and pleasant for most locations. Rising heights/thickness will send us into the 80s Sunday afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible along the developing dryline late Sunday, but the early estimate is that this is more likely in the Texas panhandle. Southwest flow aloft develops aloft on Monday, in response to a strong closed low near Los Angeles. The dryline will be established by Monday, and it appears we will hang onto the warm sector in SW Kansas through Monday afternoon. As such, severe thunderstorms are possible mainly eastern counties Monday afternoon. 12z medium range models including ECMWF develop a broad western trough over the western/SW U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday. Diffluence/divergence aloft and strong lift will increase with time as shortwaves from this trough approach. Increased rain and thunderstorm coverage early next week is a given. However, the threat of severe weather in Kansas is much more subdued. 12z ECMWF drives another cold front through Tuesday, with the cold stable sector progged to prevail in SW KS through Wednesday. Early in the game, this favors rain and elevated thunder in SW KS, and surface-based severe across Texas and Oklahoma. Models are still debating how to handle this ejecting upper low, and mesoscale/convective details will have a lot to do with day-to-day frontal position. 12z ECMWF suggests cool stable air will hold on in Kansas even through Thursday and Friday, despite persistent troughing to the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Widespread IFR and even LIFR conditions will continue tonight behind the latest cold front. Winds will be out of the north- northeast, increasing in speed to 18 to 23 knots sustained at times with higher gusts. The best time frame for thunderstorms will be a 3-5 hour period from roughly 02Z to 06Z later this evening. Scattered showers are then expected thereafter through roughly daybreak. The ceiling will hover near the IFR/MVFR threshold tomorrow morning through midday with the greater chance for IFR being LBL terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 61 46 69 / 80 10 40 30 GCK 40 63 45 71 / 70 0 30 20 EHA 40 61 45 71 / 40 0 20 20 LBL 41 61 47 70 / 70 10 40 30 HYS 41 61 44 68 / 60 0 50 20 P28 49 62 50 68 / 70 20 40 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
919 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .UPDATE... Loss of heating has allowed for convection over the higher terrain of Mexico to wane this evening along the Rio Grande with attention for rain chances tonight remaining focused across Central Texas into the Hill Country. Aircraft soundings out of Austin and San Antonio showed a gradual weakening/lifting capping inversion late this afternoon, but latest soundings have shown very little overall change in the cap the past 1-2 hours across the metro areas. Ongoing convection across Hamilton/Bosque Counties does indicate the cap is weaker just north of the Austin metro though. Have maintained a mention of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the evening across the Central Texas counties as a broad vorticity maxima evident on SPC Mesoanalysis continues to lift across the Edwards Plateau. Farther north, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) draped roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor has produced a series of outflow boundaries evident on both the KDYX and KFWS radars. Simple extrapolation of these boundaries` current movements would place them into the Hill Country/Central Texas between 3-5 AM (but modification of their associated cold pools may result in a slower arrival... or keep these boundaries from reaching the forecast area entirely). Will have to watch the southward progress of these features as they may serve as a potential focus for additional rain development overnight and possibly result in a brief wind shift/slightly cooler temperatures than presently forecast across Central Texas. Regardless, strong southerly flow will mean a few streamer type showers develop east of the Interstate 35 corridor ahead of these boundaries overnight tonight. High resolution guidance has intermittently shown the outflow or possibly the MCS reaching the Central Texas counties before sunrise and should this solution pan out, another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may clip areas generally north of a Mason to San Marcos to Eagle Lake line during the pre-dawn hours. Have kept a mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for these areas overnight with generally dry conditions expected farther west. Forecast soundings indicate that the cap persists overnight across the region and expect this to temper the intensity of any activity that is able to move into the region from North Texas, but stronger cells may still be capable of a brief hail or gusty wind threat with observed mid-level lapse rates on both the FWD and DRT 00Z soundings in excess of 8 C/km. Persistent southerly flow will also allow lower clouds to fill in across the region, keeping evening and overnight temperatures warm. Austin Bergstrom, Austin Mabry, and San Antonio all have the potential to set or tie record high minimums for May 1 should their temperatures not fall below 74 degrees through the remainder of today. Overnight temperatures are only expected to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/ AVIATION... Overcast clouds are currently bisecting the area with SCT/BKN VFR ceilings at AUS and OVC VFR skies at SAT/SSF. DRT has waffled back and forth between VFR and MVFR through the evening, but generally VFR skies are forecast into the early evening hours at all terminals. The greatest chances for precipitation and especially thunderstorms will be at DRT and AUS through the evening hours with isolated storms currently ongoing west of DRT. While rain chances should end by 06z at all terminals ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR and possibly IFR levels in a few spots. Have kept prevailing MVFR cigs with SCT IFR mentioned due to uncertainty in how far ceilings will drop and based on a persistence forecast due to the MVFR ceilings the last few mornings. Ceilings will be slow to improve during the day Thursday but VFR should return late in the afternoon. Tomorrow should only see a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm, not warranting a mention in the TAFs at this point. Precipitation chances do begin to increase tomorrow evening so VCTS has been included in the AUS TAF. Winds will generally be out of the southeast around 10 knots through this TAF period. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Forecast this afternoon and evening looks to be drier than expected with the cap holding on. Most of the convection over the last couple of hours has initiated well north of the area. CAMs continue to develop convection over west central Texas into this evening but are pessimistic on rain chances for our area. The ARW is the outlier which develops a robust line of storms through the northeastern parts of the region, but is doubtful with current development. The last few model runs of the HRRR develops a supercell type complex and moves it into Val Verde County just after 22Z, but confidence is low on this actually materializing. Rain chances hang around for Thursday but remain relatively low for the period with broad troughing off to the west and in between pulses of energy that are ejected out over the state from Mexico. Have kept 30 PoP in for the northern portion of CWA for the day Thursday. Late Thursday night, the next upper level shortwave disturbance translates out of Mexico. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Friday is looking like the best chances for rain in the forecast period. Persistent southeast flow off the Gulf has primed the region with elevated moisture and sufficient available energy with forecast sounding throughout the region holding 2500+ CAPE. The shortwave disturbance moving over the state Friday looks to put forcing farther south than previous ones. Timing of convection is highly dependent on the timing of the shortwave but elevated rain chances exist all day Friday. Rain chances push into the eastern CWA and out of the region heading into Saturday. Shortwave ridging tries to establish itself over south central Texas late Saturday and into early next week but rain chances look to make a return Monday as an embedded shortwave moves over the state once again. Both GFS and ECMWF has this occurring Monday but may need to reassess PoP chances as this time period gets closer. Another upper level low approaches from the Pacific toward the end of the period bringing chances for rain once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 85 68 80 64 / 30 30 40 70 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 30 30 40 70 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 20 20 30 60 60 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 65 77 61 / 30 30 50 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 89 68 85 65 / 20 20 50 50 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 83 67 79 63 / 40 30 40 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 72 90 68 83 63 / 10 20 40 50 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 85 67 80 63 / 30 20 30 60 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 87 70 83 66 / 30 20 30 60 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 69 81 65 / 20 20 40 60 60 Stinson Muni Airport 73 87 70 82 66 / 20 20 30 50 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...Treadway Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
841 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .UPDATE... Early area of showers which persisted longer than expected has moved east and well offshore this evening. Models in agreement that shower chances remain slim in the wake of this activity until late tonight with pronounced cap between h85-h7 at CRP at 00z /which is much less but still present around h7 at LCH/ under 8 c/km mid level lapse rates. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about later tonight/Thu morning with regards to linear MCS sliding south as it shifts eastward across nrn/nern TX tonight. Latest Texas Tech WRF and HRRR both trend towards weakening this activity as it approaches far northern counties early Thu morning and very well may stay north of sern TX altogether. Have adjusted rain chances downwards until well after midnight with chance wording over the far north and slight chance elsewhere towards morning. Winds over Galveston Bay increased with gusts over 30 mph this evening and we added Advisory wording to the forecast there. Expect these will diminish some, but winds will remain breezy through the night. Evans && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/ AVIATION... A mix of MVFR and possible IFR ceilings are expected tonight. Could see some lingering SHRA early this evening, and possible TSRA overnight through maybe early tomorrow morning mainly up north (models are offering a wide variety of scenarios). Have VFR conditions developing tomorrow, but some MVFR ceilings might linger around. Will also need to watch for possible SHRA/TSRA development tomorrow afternoon. Not a whole lot of forecaster confidence with the 00Z TAF package. 42 SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]... The main concern for the forecast looks to be Friday as a frontal boundary pushes into the region and jet streak/vorticity maximum work in tandem to cause quite a bit of lift thus eroding the cap. Precip Water values get up to 1.8 to 2.0 inches to along with stronger moisture transport due to a decent low level jet. All of the synoptic models hit SE Texas with heavy rainfall and rainfall totals in the 1 to 2 inch range. With that there could be some isolated 3-4 inch amounts. WPC has put the northwest part of SE Texas in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. It looks like the main area for heavy rainfall will be north of I-10. While we cannot rule out some severe weather like hail/damaging winds, this looks like a decent set up for heavy rainfall across the area. Antecedent conditions do not look to bad and most of the area has been dry. At a minimum, the area has dried out between rain events such that the ground can handle a decent amount of rainfall before runoff makes conditions worse. This means there will be more than anything just a typical urban/street flood threat with flash flooding in the typical low areas if higher rain rates are achieved. It is possible for some thunderstorm activity to linger into Saturday afternoon but the model trends have been for most of the activity to be out of the area. LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]... Weak ridging aloft is expected Sunday into Monday so kept the forecast on the dry side. Monday into Tuesday may be another period of thunderstorm activity. GFS and Canadian are showing a strong short wave trough coming out of Mexico and producing thunderstorm activity. ECMWF is not as strong with the trough so does not produce as much rainfall. Still this will be another system to monitor. Systems coming out of Mexico have a habit of over-producing and sneaky systems. This will all depend upon how the models resolve features out over the Pacific and move across Mexico. Models can very easily lose these features from run to run. For now we will go with 40/50 PoPs mainly Monday night into Tuesday but the timing could very well change quite a bit depending upon model initialization from run to run. Overpeck MARINE... Weak low pressure over the central U.S. and high pressure over the southeast U.S. will maintain a moderate to occasionally strong onshore wind into Thursday. Seas well offshore will remain right at SCA criteria at 6 to 7 feet, so have extended the SCA and caution statements into Thursday morning. High pressure will build into the central plains on Thursday and this will push a cold front into the state. The front will stall well north of the coastal waters and onshore winds will persist. A secondary surge of high pressure will push the front further south on Saturday afternoon. It is still unclear if the weak front will clear the coast on Saturday afternoon, however the pressure gradient will relax significantly as the front nears with lighter winds next weekend. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 85 69 81 65 / 40 30 30 80 80 Houston (IAH) 74 86 71 83 68 / 30 10 10 50 70 Galveston (GLS) 74 81 74 79 71 / 20 10 10 20 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following zones: Galveston Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following zones: Galveston Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... Low confidence forecast this evening predicated on mesoscale convective complex ongoing to our west. Thinking there is potential for TSRA overnight, especially western/central terminals in the 02/06-14Z time frame, so tried to handle with TEMPO groups. SHRA with embedded TS increase in coverage area wide after 02/15Z with increasing likelihood of at least intermittent MVFR cigs. Cooper && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 526 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019) UPDATE... Updated forecast based on observed trends so far this afternoon. Hi-res CAMs are still struggling to resolve the mesoscale pattern with ongoing convection across portions of OK and TX. That said, still think there is a sensible shot that at least the remnants of this mesoscale complex will push in from the west overnight. As mentioned earlier, point forecast soundings do show capping with convection likely remaining elevated through tonight. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible where capping is weaker and/or precip loading can provide enough downward force to overcome near-surface static stability. Flooding will also be possible with heavier storms as well as areas that see any convective training. Cooper PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night Thunderstorms and showers moved through the state today and severely limited high temperatures today. Showers and thunderstorms pushed south and east of the state shortly after noon. Started to see breaks in the clouds across the western half of the state and will see temperatures begin to warm across this area. 12z models have done a poor job with afternoon high temperatures today...which will likely have trickle down effects to the forecast during the overnight hours. HRRR has consistently been showing future development across NW Arkansas shortly after 06z...with a stronger storm system approaching SW Arkansas shortly before 12z. Model soundings around 12z do show that a cap will be in place which would somewhat limit severe weather chances. However, if the cap is able to erode...severe weather could be possible. With this storm system, the main threat would be damaging straight line winds. Thursday afternoon should be fairly similar to what was seen today with precipitation coming to an end from west to east. Yet another round of precipitation will be seen on Friday as another upper level disturbance moves through the area and keeps rain chances in the area to round out the short term. 65 LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday The long term portion of the forecast will remain unsettled for the majority of the period. Rain chances will linger through the early portion of the weekend as a shortwave trough advances eastward through the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This storm system should pass through the state on Saturday, bringing with it a surface cold front. Although the frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the state, we`ll see a few days of quieter weather as more zonal flow aloft takes over. This will provide westerly flow aloft as weak ridging begins to build over the Southwest US. Unfortunately, rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday through Wednesday as quasi-stationary boundaries around the area provide a focus for convection initiation, and southerly winds help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Due to the warm and moist air in place resulting in instability across the Natural State, have included thunderstorms in the forecast. Despite mostly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms through the majority of the period, expect warm temperatures each day with highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Cross && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR Baxter-Boone- Conway-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Pike- Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-Yell. && $$ Aviation...COOPER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Main concerns in the near term will be with storm development late this afternoon and tonight. Atmosphere recovering from big cold pool push from last night`s convection. Shortwave ridge aloft is keeping things quiet in our area. However, another upper level impulse/shortwave will move northeast from the Red River reaching northeast OK by early evening. Most guidance breaks out scattered convection over southeast KS/northeast OK toward 00z/7pm. By this time, 2000-3000 j/kg cape and around 30kts m/l 0-6km shear (KJLN vcnty from the HRRR) will support either multicells or supercells this evening and overnight as the shortwave continues to lift northeast through the region. In general storm development will be more favored in/near the convergence/frontal zone that extends from northeast OK into southwest and central MO. While hail/wind will be the main potential hazards, couldn`t rule out a tornado if the cells can remain rooted near the sfc. Unlike yesterday, it looks the convection will be more scattered in nature. Relying somewhat on the HRRR for the near term fcst mixed with some consensus short term guidance. The frontal boundary is progged to shift south on Thursday and overall better chances for shower/tstms will be more confined to our southern cwfa. Another upper level impulse or remnant MCV will move through southern MO during the afternoon with scattered storms. Progged cape/instability is not expected to be as strong, but mucape over 1000 j/kg will support hail and potentially a wind threat if some sfc based cape can be realized. Will extend the flash flood watch through the day Thursday. We have watches and warnings everywhere along with most of our river forecast points under warnings. It doesn`t look like the precip will be as widespread over the next couple of days, but we will have some locally heavy rain with storm clusters. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Friday-Saturday: A shortwave over the eastern Rockies now will lift northeast, and another now moving into the Pacific northwest will move into the central/northern Rockies Thu night and into the Midwest and MO Fri night. The sfc front will lift back to the north Fri. Showers/tstms will develop ahead of the shortwave before ending Fri night. Progged instability doesn`t look too impressive at this point, but we don`t need the additional rainfall. Will continue to monitor hydro through this period. The precip should finally exit off to the east Sat. Total rainfall in the forecast through Sat generally ranges one inch in the northwest cwfa to two inches in the southeast. Sunday: Looks quiet with sfc high pressure. Sunday night-Wednesday: Sfc low pressure moves into the western Plains w/moisture return into the Plains. Flat ridging aloft will amplify over the central CONUS as a closed upper low develops over the southwest. Convective coverage may be more limited but will continue rain chances through this period with above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening and through the overnight hours. A storm system will spread across the region bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities with moderate to heavy rainfall. Slowly improving flight conditions are expected late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
952 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .DISCUSSION... Line of elevated storms will be moving out of LeFlore Co in the next half hour. These storms have left a fairly stable airmass in their wake and will thus cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for SE OK counties prior to 10 PM. Trailing area of moderate rain with some embedded lightning will also persist south of I-40 for a few more hours before gradually moving east. Additional storms have developed over western KS this evening along a cold front which will push into northeast OK later tonight. Earlier runs of HRRR were much more bullish with expanding convection along the boundary overnight, but latest runs have trended in keeping the bulk of the significant rainfall back to the west and north. POPS will be trended down some across parts of northeast OK in the 06-12z time frame, but will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect through 12z given the uncertainty and the highly saturated ground from recent rainfall. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR overnight tonight. A complex of showers and thunderstorms this evening is most likely to affect KFSM. MVFR ceilings will prevail at all sites Thursday, with another complex of showers and storms likely to affect all sites from late tonight until around midday Thursday. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/ DISCUSSION... Currently keeping a close eye on the clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms ongoing across south central OK. This activity has developing in an area of very unstable air just ahead of a surface front draped from southwest OK into north central OK. Available instability drops off significantly across eastern OK, so the storms have shown signs of weakening and becoming less organized at they move rather slowly north and northeast. This is also supported by recent HRRR output. Still not out of the question to see a few storms move into parts of the area this evening, with the best potential of any severe storms being across parts of far southeast OK. Short term guidance also suggests that additional showers/thunderstorms may develop overnight near the frontal boundary across northeast OK, with the activity shifting east into northwest AR later tonight. Southwesterly low/mid level flow could encourage some training of storms, so have opted to expand the flash flood watch through the night for the entire forecast area. Most locations saw around 2"-4" inches of rain from yesterdays convection (with locally higher amounts of 4"-6") any additional rainfall could result in further flooding. Precipitation will gradually shift east and southeast by Thursday afternoon. By Friday, another upper wave will move from the Rockies into the Plains by the afternoon. Chances of showers/storms will continue, with the atmosphere remaining uncapped/weakly unstable and moist (PWATs around 1.5"). Took a broadbrush approach for PoPs by Friday, although these numbers may tick upward with subsequent forecasts. Aside from some early rain chances Saturday, the weekend is looking mostly dry at this time. The patter becomes a bit more active next week, with storm chances returning by Tue/Wed as surface boundary potentially nudges into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 73 59 73 / 50 30 30 50 FSM 65 78 64 75 / 80 70 20 50 MLC 64 79 62 73 / 80 50 20 50 BVO 57 71 54 72 / 60 30 30 50 FYV 63 75 59 71 / 40 70 30 50 BYV 63 74 59 71 / 30 70 30 50 MKO 63 76 61 73 / 30 50 30 50 MIO 60 71 58 72 / 30 50 30 50 F10 63 76 60 72 / 50 40 30 50 HHW 65 80 64 73 / 80 60 20 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14