Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/28/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1047 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 The latest data (NAM, RAP, HRRR etc.) suggests a slight shift south and the latest satellite and radar trends suggest a slower onset of precipitation. Therefore, expanded precip chances a bit south with this update and delayed precip chances southwest for a few hours. Overall the big picture of the forecast has not changed much and snowfall amounts remain highly dependent on temperatures rather than placement of highest QPF. UPDATE Issued at 750 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 The upcoming storm and the impacts that will follow are on track with previous thinking. Only slight adjustments were made based of the latest data (generally just a few tweaks to timing and a slight lowering of temperatures north tomorrow). Initially, we`ll see mainly rain west this evening, then as diurnal cooling and dynamic cooling link up we`ll see a mix of rain/snow and then finally all snow across the north by tomorrow morning. Initial accumulations tonight may be tempered by melting as ground temperatures remain well above freezing. As the system moves overhead tomorrow and dynamic cooling is maximized and combined with intense precipitation rates snow should quickly accumulate north, especially across higher terrains and on grassy surfaces. Temperatures will flirt with critical thresholds tomorrow and a degree or two can have huge impacts on precipitation type and accumulations. Therefore, snow amounts and road conditions could vary wildly and change rapidly across short distances. UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Minor adjustments were made this evening to precipitation forecast tonight as scattered/numerous showers remain over central North Dakota. Also increased winds west were 20mph gusting to 30 mph winds were common ahead of the next wave. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Highlights include an upgrade of the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for heavy snow Sunday morning through Sunday night. A winter weather advisory will be issued surrounding the winter storm warning. For the rest of this afternoon, a weakening mid level s shortwave trough across western ND is resulting in scattered rain showers from south central through north central. Will maintain scattered PoPs north to likely Pops far south central this afternoon and into the early evening. For tonight and Sunday, the latest water vapor imagery shows our next strong mid/upper level low now circulating over southern Alberta. This will slide southeast into western North Dakota 12z-18z Sunday, then into eastern North Dakota by 12z/7AM Monday. Models similar with the track of the 700mb low, from around Trotters to Washburn and east into Carrington Sunday into Sunday night. Generally the heaviest snow is just to the north of this track, and concur with this idea given what the models are suggesting in terms of heavy snow placement. Very strong ascent atop strong low level frontogenesis and steep mid level lapse rates linking in between are advertised to develop late tonight through Sunday for northwest and north central ND. Areas of instability at times show up tonight northwest, then south central Sunday afternoon. Have mentioned some thunder in the grids, with some potential of thundersnow Sunday, although the better instability per BUFKIT soundings resides across the south Sunday. Across the far north,gusty east to northeasterly winds of up to 40 mph at times will result in near zero visibilities along with wet heavy snow. Precipitation will slowly wane from west to east Sunday evening/night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 As our storm system exits to our east, cooler air remains in place over the Northern Plains on Monday. After morning lows in the 20s and lower 30s, and lingering snow/rain showers that taper off by noon, temperatures will reach only into the upper 30s to mid 40s, with Monday night lows mainly in the 20s. By Tuesday, the upper flow becomes southwesterly as yet another storm system develops over the US Rockies. This system will bring another round of rain and snow to Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday. For western and central North Dakota, look for a chance of rain or snow showers in southwest and south central North Dakota Tuesday, but more widespread rain/snow showers Wednesday. This active pattern continues, with another system setting up for a chance of rain and a possible snow mix for next weekend. The models hint at a chance of thunder as well Friday night and Saturday. A cool first half of next week, with highs mainly in the 40s...then a modest warming trend towards the end of the week, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 A strong low pressure system develops over the region tonight bringing initially -RA to western ND this evening. Heavy snow and strong easterly winds develop Sunday morning, continuing through Sunday night across northern North Dakota. MVFR and IFR cigs and vsbys return at KDIK and KISN after 06z. IFR conditions expand to KMOT-KBIS after 10z with rain at KBIS and rain changing to snow and increasing winds at KMOT. The greatest potential for accumulating snow with reduced visibility and cigs at KISN/KMOT Sunday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ Sunday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Monday for NDZ012-013-017>019-021>023. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for NDZ001>005-009>011. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
950 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... After a brief break in an active weather pattern tonight into Sunday...the next low pressure system will move by to our south Sunday Afternoon and will spread more precipitation across southern areas Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build into the region Monday, followed by another area of low pressure passing by to our South on Monday Night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will attempt to build back into the region Wednesday, followed by yet more low pressure late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 945 PM Update... Showers have diminished across the area except for a few stragglers. Drier air is working its way in from the west now as the upper level low lifts towards northeastern Maine. Winds are also dying down steadily. Made a few minor updates to the forecast, but no major changes to the PoPs as we may still see some showers over the mountains and foothills. 6 PM Update... Low pressure continues to pass by overhead bringing some scattered showers to the region. These should diminish with time from the south but have kept the showers /including some snow showers over the higher terrain/ over a larger extent temporally and spatially overnight as models are not handling this system well. Only expecting minor QPF amounts, with a cooler night than last night. Previous discussion... High Impact Weather Potential: *Minor river flooding continues on the Presumpscot...Saco...and Suncook Rivers. We expect flooding to occur later on the Kennebec. Pattern: Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals an impressive shortwave directly overhead with a moisture plume east of this wave reaching all the way south into the tropical Atlantic. Drier air is slowly filtering into the region as this moisture plume peels east of the region. Looking to the west we see another smaller shortwave disturbance quickly marching east which suggests that our break in active weather will be rather brief. For the near term forecast period tonight the focus will be on gradually improving conditions as the aforementioned wave overhead lifts north and east into the Canadian maritimes with a very weak ridge of high pressure building into the region between the departing low and the approaching one from the west. Through this evening: While radar echoes have expanded over northern NH and western ME this afternoon...drying continues to arrive from the south and expect the ongoing shower activity to gradually become increasingly restricted to the mountains. Temperatures will likely fall below 40F in the mountains towards 8pm...with 40s dominates elsewhere. Tonight: Cyclonic flow this evening slowly loses it/s grip over the region tonight as low pressure continues to pull north and east of the region with a weak and narrow mid level shortwave ridge axis arriving overnight. Shower activity will be confined to the mountains and likely take the form of snow overnight with some accumulating snow certainly possible in the upslope areas of the Whites. Elsewhere expect a very gradual clearing trend with northwesterly winds likely remaining coupled through the night. Cold advection will already have largely ended...but with a cooler airmass overhead...expect lows in the 20s in the mountains...and 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... High Impact Weather Potential: * While river flooding will come to an end...river and lake levels will remain high in many areas with some lingering flood impacts. * Some potential for wet snow in the hills of southern NH Sunday afternoon and evening. Pattern: Secondary shortwave quickly scoots east along the southern flank of longwave trough axis centered over Ontario/Hudson Bay...but weakens somewhat initially as it runs into downstream shortwave ridging...and passes south of New England Sunday afternoon/Sunday night. It then strengthens as another upstream shortwave arrives from the northwest and reorients the flow aloft but this happens too late for any impacts here as the wave pushes east of the New England coast. Thus...the primary forecast concerns through the short term forecast period include precipitation with this wave as it passes south of the region with a focus on any potential for snow. Sunday: There is a good model consensus on surface low pressure moving east from a position over northern West Virginia around the southern Jersey coast by early afternoon and then south of New England towards evening. Warm-advection induced precipitation will make a run at southern New Hampshire by late morning with the potential for a 6-8 hour period of precipitation over southern NH and southwestern Maine during the afternoon and evening. While the surface low and it/s track is well agreed upon...the northern extent of the precipitation shield is not with the 27.12Z NAM showing a complete miss...with a bit of a southward adjustment in the northern extent of precipitation seen in the GFS as well. Looking at the 27.12Z HRRR and the 27.12Z HREF shows a much further north extent /LEB-LEW and points south/. Given the scenario /weakening surface wave south of New England/ do not have the confidence to go higher than likely PoPs over far southern areas with this package. Also have to watch precipitation type. At this looks like wet bulb zero heights will be around 2.5kft during the event...which should keep most spots plain rain. As precipitation arrives...could see some of the highest hilltops /above 1.5kft/ see some wet snowflakes. High temperatures will not make it higher than the lower 50s along the coast with 40s in the mountains. Sunday Night: Low pressure will pull east of the region overnight with clearing skies and northwesterly winds. Arriving airmass is rather dry with PWATs falling to -1 to -2 sigma /below 0.25"/ and surface dewpoints reaching the teens over northern areas and the 20s south of the mountains. The gradient gradually slackens overnight which should allow some locations in deeper valleys to decouple. Here...expect lows around 20...with 20s to around the freezing mark elsewhere...which is about 5F below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A rather active weather pattern will continue through the long term portion of the forecast. Early in the period (Monday) weak high pressure will result in dry and somewhat cool conditions over the region. Monday Night into Tuesday the first of three areas of low pressure will move east from the Ohio Valley. This low will be weak with most of its precipitation staying south of the region although light precipitation is possible over southern areas. The 12z GFS is furthest north with the precipitation shield while the 12Z Canadian is in line with the 00z ECMWF keeping the northern extent of the precipitation area further south. If the precipitation shield reaches to the lakes region or north then snow showers are possible over those areas. High pressure will nose south from Canada late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. A second area of low pressure will move NE from the Southern Plains later Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF dries most of the precipitation out as it runs into the dry Canadian airmass associated with high pressure over Southern Canada. The GFS and the Canadian models bring precipitation to Central and Southern areas with the GFS again having the furthest north progress of the precipitation shield. Similar to the first system, if the precipitation shield makes it far enough north precipitation type could be snow over central and northern areas. Given the size of the Canadian High of Southern Canada would expect the precipitation to weaken some as it moves NE. High pressure will briefly build in later Thursday before a third area of low pressure will moves east from the Great Lakes Region Friday and Friday Night. All models develop a secondary area of low pressure east of Cape Cod. Currently the models move the secondary low pretty fast and offshore thereby limiting the extend to the precipitation over the region...a closer to the coast or slower solution would result in more precipitation. While mostly rain is expected with this the mountains may see some snow mixed in. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term... Summary: Low pressure pulling away from the region will bring improving flying conditions through tonight. Quick on its heels is another system that will pass south of New England on Sunday and Sunday night bringing rain to southern NH and potentially southwest ME. Restrictions: Conditions improving as of 18Z with VFR expected to dominate most of the period through Sunday night. Exceptions to this will be at HIE with lingering rain /and potentially snow/ showers tonight with MVFR CIGS. Also...improvement has not yet reached RKD...with IFR conditions expected to improve to VFR over the next few hours. There is some potential for a period of MVFR CIGS Sunday afternoon at MHT and perhaps CON...but confidence is not high in this yet. Winds: Southwesterly winds 15G25kts will diminish to 5-10kts tonight with 10kt westerly winds expected for the day on Sunday before diminishing to less than 5kts Sunday night. LLWS: No LLWS expected through Sunday night. Long Term... VFR conditions on Monday will transition to areas of IFR Monday Night into Tuesday over southern areas as low pressure moves south of the region. MVFR conditions likely Later Tuesday into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure with return areas of IFR conditions late Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term... Small crafts continue as of this afternoon with residual waves and westerly winds necessitating them through tonight for the outer waters. For the bays...winds and waves have dropped far enough to drop them from the SCA. While a brief break in headlines is possible for the outer waters on Sunday... strengthening northwesterly winds behind departing low pressure Sunday night will renew the need for additional SCAs. Long Term... Waves below SCA levels into Wednesday. SCA level waves possible late Wednesday through the end of the week as areas of low pressure approach the region. Winds expected to stay below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... River flood warnings continue on the Androscoggin, Presumpscot, Saco, Suncook, and Kennebec Rivers with many other rivers near bankfull. We`re transitioning from headwater to main stem flooding this afternoon and evening. Have dropped the flood watch with no additional flood warnings expected and only minor amounts of additional rainfall. All flooding is in the minor category with all rivers likely falling below flood stage by late Sunday/Sunday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Arnott LONG TERM...Lulofs
National Weather Service Jackson KY
946 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2019 Did a quick update to include slight chance of thunder with a few isolated strikes showing up on lightning detection. This is brought in by a small ribbon of MUCAPE and EL temperatures colder that -20 C based off the SPC mesoanalysis page. This will be more and more limited as this band of light showers progresses east and more favorable conditions mentioned above decrease. Otherwise, mostly minor changes made to incorporate the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 748 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2019 The late afternoon surface analysis shows a warm front long and just north of northern Kentucky and an area of low Pressure in Missouri and cold front stretching from there back into the Texas Panhandle. The warm front has been the focus for showers this afternoon and will continue into this evening. Did update POPs to reflect the better coverage of showers seen generally along and north of I-64. Then once you move south the more downslope flow and consequently drier air/high cloud bases have capped this more as sprinkles in most cases. That said, the HRRR has been having a hard time maintaining awareness of better POPs and actually leaned toward the HREF placement for updated POPs. Overall feel the grids are in reasonable shape and also blended in the latest obs to allow for better trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 451 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2019 The latest surface map features low pressure currently centered across northeast Missouri. A warm front is branched east of the low into the Ohio Valley, with a cold front aligned southwestward into the southern Plains. Aloft, fairly flat flow reigns for most east of the Rockies. An embedded short wave through is noted across the Midwest, aiming towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions. Light precipitation has broken out across the Ohio Valley, with some locations closer to the Ohio River having measured thus far. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the Midwest low pressure system dampening as it travels east across the Ohio Valley tonight. This will spread some light rain showers at times across eastern Kentucky. A cold front will move through at around dawn, with a few showers lingering through Sunday morning across far southeastern Kentucky. High pressure will then quickly build in across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, bringing drier weather to the Commonwealth through Sunday night. Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 50s tonight, with highs on Sunday similar to today, generally upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Sunday night under mostly clear skies will be cooler. Some of the more sheltered valleys will drop into the low to mid 40s, while broader valleys and ridgetops remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 410 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2019 A warm front will lift north through northeast Kentucky during the day Monday, becoming a stationary frontal boundary north of the Ohio River through the day Tuesday. A low pressure system will then ride NE into the mid-Mississippi Valley and push the frontal boundary farther northward, before dragging a cold front eastward into Kentucky. This cold front is expected to sweep across the state Thursday into Thursday night, exiting eastern Kentucky Friday morning. High pressure and northerly flow will then follow behind the passage of the cold front for the remainder of Friday, continuing into Saturday as well. Some passing showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible in the northern portion of the CWA Monday as the warm front pushes north. After that generally dry weather should be on tap through mid- week, with most of the precip remaining along the stationary front located to our north. SW flow in place across eastern KY will boost temperatures into the mid and upper 80s for most locations on Tuesday and Wednesday (slightly cooler in the low to mid 30s on Monday afternoon). As the cold front nears the CWA Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase. By Thursday, scattered pops will begin to overspread the region. Coverage will continue to increase heading into Thursday night as the front begins to pass over, with high pops remaining place through Friday morning before tapering off throughout the afternoon as drier air begins to filter in. Some instability will be present ahead of the frontal passage on Thursday and Thursday night, so did include thunder chances. However, most of this instability is lost by Friday morning once the front has moved over, so thunder potential will be more limited or not likely. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with the cloud cover and rain. However, post frontal temperatures will be much colder as northerly winds take hold. Highs on Friday may barely top 70 degrees in some locations. A similar story will be had for Saturday as well as the northerly flow continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2019 A warm front is now around northern Kentucky and nearer the Ohio River, and an low pressure and attendant cold front are located to our west around Missouri. We have some more scattered rain shower activity along and just south of the warm front that has brought some light showers to SYM, but the dry air is keeping other areas capped to mostly sprinkles under high clouds bases. Overall this will allow for VFR CIGs and VIS through much of the night outside any temporary drops in VIS to maybe MVFR at SYM at worst. The low pressure and cold front will push east tonight and move across the region early Sunday. While this system does become more anemic in terms of moisture, we could see some showers along and near this feature. This system will also bring some post frontal low clouds with it and therefore kept the mention of MVFR toward dawn Sunday. However, the LAMP and HREF probabilities of IFR seemed lower overall and leaned away from that for now. The lower clouds will decrease through the day Sunday and lead to a return to VFR by Sunday afternoon. The winds will increase out of the southwest tonight at 5 to 10 knots with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots not out of the question. The winds will veer back around to the northwest and north as the front passes through Sunday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
943 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Isolated showers have moved out of the far eastern part of the CWA ahead of the cold front. Northwest winds have occasionally gusted up to 40 mph this evening behind the front, and these winds will begin to slowly decrease during the late evening and overnight hours as surface low over central Illinois moves off to the east. Low clouds are progressing southeastward across the area behind the front, and expect most of the area to remain mostly cloudy through the night. Satellite trends and forecast soundings still suggest that there will be some clearing across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois late tonight. This coupled with winds decreasing below 10 mph will be enough for some areas of frost as temperatures fall to near freezing over the northern CWA. Do not plan on issuing a frost advisory as extent of frost is questionable given how quickly the clouds will be clearing out and how quickly the winds will be decreasing late tonight. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Low pressure near Kirksville is dragging a cold front through western Missouri. Strong southwest wind ahead of the front has pushed temperatures well into the 70s along and west of the Mississippi River this afternoon so far, and nearly 80 in central Missouri where much of the morning cloudiness has dissipated. The surface low is forecast to move rapidly east into the Ohio Valley this evening which will push the cold front through through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois by Midnight tonight. Winds behind the front will turn sharply to the northwest and current indications are that the wind will be just as strong behind the front tonight as it was today ahead of it with gusts in excess of 35 mph in some spots. Blended MOS guidance did not seem to do justice to the strong cold advection behind the front, so I used a blend of RAP and GFS 1hr 2m temperature grids to show the downward spiral tonight. Most of the forecast area should stay above freezing in the mid to upper 30s, but it looks like parts of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will just kiss 31-32 degrees for a short period Sunday morning. Unsure of frost potential due to cold advection clouds behind the front and the probability that wind will interrupt frost deposition, but can`t rule out some patchy frost before sunrise Sunday morning. Lingering stratus/strato-cu should dissipate before noon. However, the morning cloudiness will dampen the warm up somewhat. With the morning starting out primarily in the 30s, afternoon highs will barely break 60 in most locations...and probably won`t get out of the upper 50s in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. This is about 10 degrees below normal for late April. Carney .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Next Saturday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Next week continues to look wet, with several rounds of potentially heavy rain. The GFS and ECMWF both have the first wave developing Sunday night and affecting primarily areas north of I-70 in central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. A 40+ knot low level jet and strong moisture convergence at 850mb make the model output QPF of an inch or more very believable. The convection tries to push the effective low level baroclinic zone further south into central and east central Missouri on Monday, but persistent southwest flow will continue to try to push the baroclinic zone back closer to Iowa. Of course, the southwest flow across the baroclinicity will also provide lift to continue to produce precipitation. This process continues Monday night, through at least Wednesday night and into Thursday. Both the GFS and ECMWF primarily target northeast Missouri and west central Illinois for the heaviest rain through the period. WPC total QPF through the end of the week exceeds 3 inches in those areas...and given what the EC and GFS are showing this looks reasonable. Both the GFS and EC break the wet pattern with a broad upper level wave moving through the Upper Midwest on Thursday afternoon/evening. This should finally push a weak cold front through the mid Mississippi Valley and bring us dry weather for Friday and Saturday. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 A cold front is moving across the area and causing winds to shift out of the northwest at all of the terminal, with gusts expected around 30KT tonight. These gusts will begin to diminish between 06-12Z. Low clouds will move in behind the cold front, with low MVFR ceilings or possible IFR ceilings tonight. These clouds are expected to clear out of the terminals on Sunday morning allowing for dry and VFR conditions for most of the day on Sunday. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: A cold front is moving through the terminal and causing winds to shift out of the northwest, with gusts expected around 30KT tonight. These gusts will begin to diminish toward 12Z. Low clouds will move in behind the cold front, with low MVFR ceilings or possible IFR ceilings tonight into Sunday morning. These clouds are expected to clear out of the terminal late on Sunday morning allowing for dry and VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon and evening. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .UPDATE... Strong convection is ongoing west of the DFW Metroplex. The HRRR appears to be the only model that is accounting for this activity, and it suggests the storms should dissipate shortly after midnight. Latest mesoanalysis and regional 00z soundings suggest the convection will encounter a more stable environment and increasing convective inhibition as they approach the Metroplex and locations farther east. In addition, latest radar loops show a slight downward trend in overall thunderstorm activity. Thus, it appears the HRRR seems to have a decent handle on the situation. No additional showers or thunderstorms have developed along the cold front across Southern and Southeast Oklahoma. Some light radar returns have been present most of the evening north of the Interstate 30 corridor. This is associated with a band of mid- level moisture across the region. So far, none of this precipitation has reached the ground, but an isolated observation or two of light rain can`t be ruled out through the night. PoPs were lowered into the slight chance category and were generally confined to areas along and north of US Highway 82 in Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northeast Texas. The remainder of the grids were left largely intact. CN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019/ UPDATE... See below for 28/00z Aviation Discussion. Gusty winds still persist in a few locations, but overall, wind speeds have begun to diminish. Therefore, the Lake Wind Advisory was allowed to expire. CN AVIATION... For the 28/00z TAFs, VFR conditions should prevail at most terminals until the early morning hours. Scattered convection may develop throughout the period along a cold front, mainly affecting Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northeast Texas. This includes KTXK and KELD. However, confidence is not particularly high regarding the timing or overall convective coverage. Therefore, convection was not mentioned in the TAFs, but amendments will be made if conditions change. Otherwise, low-level southerly flow should result in low clouds and MVFR ceilings in most locations for a few hours around sunrise Sunday morning, but VFR flight conditions should return by late morning or early afternoon. CN PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/ A weak trough and associated cold front will continued to be pushed southward toward the region by a short wave digging across upper midwest. This boundary will stall near the I-30 corridor this evening and will become the focus for widely scattered convection mainly north of I-30 and possibly down to Interstate 20 tonight through early Sunday. With steep mid level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft, some large hail and isolated damaging winds will be possible. Dry conditions should return on Sunday across most of the region, although some leftover boundaries may remain across areas north of I-30. With an unstable airmass in place, some isolated diurnal convection could be possible. Highs on Sunday expected to reach near 80 degrees with lows near 60. /20/ LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ A very unsettled pattern will define the long-term forecast with a slow-moving frontal boundary across the Plains on Monday approaching our region. The boundary is progged to stall out just to our NW and linger through mid week as weak forcing begins encroaching on much of our region. Additional lift will come with upper level impulses transitioning through the increasing SW flow aloft, result in higher rain chances by Tuesday and especially into Wednesday and Thursday. This will occur as a strong shortwave pivots eastward out of the Rockies and helps to nudge the front southward into our region late Wednesday through Thursday. This is the general timeframe for the possibility of a few strong to severe storms in addition to heavy rainfall, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor. For now, the concern is slightly higher for the threat of heavy rain followed by possible flooding as rainfall amounts could exceed 4-5 inches in some areas across our NW through the end of the week. The front is expected to eventually clear the region over the weekend, but low rain chances could linger through at least Saturday depending on how quickly the front shifts southward. Temperatures will generally run near to slightly above average through much of the period with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly in the 60s. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 83 60 83 / 0 10 10 10 MLU 62 80 59 84 / 0 10 10 10 DEQ 62 78 59 79 / 20 20 10 10 TXK 62 80 59 79 / 20 20 10 10 ELD 61 79 59 82 / 10 20 10 10 TYR 64 82 62 80 / 10 0 10 10 GGG 63 82 61 81 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 62 83 62 82 / 0 0 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/15