Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/26/19

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1003 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push east across the area on Friday with a drier, cooler air mass moving into the region behind it. Another low pressure system will bring additional rain chances to the area later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... With low pressure centered over Southeast Indiana, isolated severe weather from rotating cells has developed this evening in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. We have received a few reports of wind damage and hail, with more cells to interrogate on the radar. The NAM/ CMC and several of the 12Z higher res models are suggesting some heavier rain swaths with some localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches possible. The GFS and the ECMWF are not as aggressive, with the ECMWF keeping the heaviest swath to our northwest. FFG is on the higher side with 6 hour guidance generally in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. Considered going with a flood watch across parts of our northwest to account for this. However, with some uncertainty between the models in the location of the heaviest swaths and the latest RAP and HRRR continuing to shift farther to the northwest, have opted to hold off on a watch. That being said, think there is potential to see a fair amount of flood advisory type issues tonight and will continue to mention this threat in the HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The mid/upper level trough axis will shift off to the east through the day on Friday with the surface low shifting off to our northeast and the cold front moving east of our area. This will lead to a decreasing trend in pcpn from west to east as we progress through the day. As drier air moves in, we will also see at least some partial clearing work in from the west through the afternoon. In developing low level CAA behind the front, winds will be on the increase and become gusty. Have trended a little closer to the more mixy GFS, with wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range possible. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mainly clear skies are expected for Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the lower 40s in the south. It does look like the gradient will help keep the winds up enough through the night to limit any frost development across the north Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place for this weekend and into next week with multiple systems moving through the region. Although dry conditions will start out the day on Saturday an approaching low pressure system will bring precipitation chances to the region beginning during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Precipitation will taper off Sunday morning. Instability is limited during this time and therefore generally kept any thunder mention out of this time period or at a minimum. Clouds will decrease for Sunday evening into the first part of Sunday night. There is the potential for some frost across central Ohio if winds decrease for a long enough period of time. At time point limited frost mention to central Ohio and kept it patchy. The dry weather for Sunday night will be short lived as precipitation chances move back into the region for Monday and remain in place through the week. Warmer temperatures will be in place during this time with highs generally in the 60s in 70s. A few 80 degree temperatures will also be possible near and south of the Ohio River on Wednesday and Thursday. There is at least some instability each day and therefore have a thunder mention in the forecast as well. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Flight conditions will be affected by weather associated with low pressure moving from Central Indiana to Northwest Ohio. Showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by IFR visibilities, and wind gusts as high as 35 knots this evening at CVG and LUK. Thunderstorms may decrease in strength overnight, while showers increase in coverage, and MVFR ceilings become widespread. As the low lifts north on Friday, winds from the northwest will increase in speed with gusts over 30 knots. VFR should arrive Friday afternoon as high pressure moves closer, while wind speeds gradually subside by Friday evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will be possible on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Coniglio
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
647 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley will be exiting the region this evening, taking the persistent rain over southeast and east central Missouri and southern Illinois with it. The rain should begin moving a little more quickly over the next few hours as the upper level low trough continues to open up and accelerate to the east-northeast. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front which is currently pushing through south central Iowa and northwest Missouri will continue moving southeast tonight, and sweep through southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by 08Z-10Z. A broken line of showers is already forming just ahead of the front in southeast Iowa and north central Missouri. Short range guidance including all of the convection allowing models continue to develop convection ahead of the front late this afternoon and push the broken line into northeast and central Missouri and west central Illinois...and even into east central Missouri and southwest Illinois by mid-evening. RAP and GFS do show a bit of instability ahead of the front, so have kept isolated thunder mention in the forecast with this convection. Most guidance shows the line weakening between 03-05Z. Cooler and drier air will filter into the mid Mississippi Valley behind the front tonight with lows dropping into the 40s. There will also likely be some gusty winds of 20-30 mph behind the front tonight and Friday. While we`ll start Friday on the cool side, it looks like a mostly sunny day, and even with northwest wind temperatures should easily rebound into the mid 60s per guidance...and these temperatures agree well with upstream highs over Nebraska this afternoon. Lows may be tricky on Friday night though as the wind drops off during the evening and then turns back to the south ahead of the next system. With dry air in place and a clear sky temperatures could drop fairly quickly in the evening and then remain nearly steady in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Carney .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday) Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 An active pattern is staged to impact the Midwest through the period. The greatest potential for heavier rain comes next week as a boundary becomes nearly stationary and meanders through the Midwest. This will also bring the potential for a north/south spread in temperatures. The first system will come in the form of a surface low passing southeast through the Dakotas, under an upper level shortwave. As it progresses east, it will continue to the place the MO/IL region deeper into warm air advection and associated southwesterly flow. Moisture will continue to increase, along with the presence of isentropic lift over Missouri Saturday morning. Showers are expected to develop over Missouri Saturday morning and toward the MO/IL border around early afternoon. Activity will move into Illinois through mid-afternoon. Showers are likely to be the mode of activity with little/no MLCAPE and early morning clouds should keep temperatures in the 60s/near 70 with little opportunity for diurnal surface heating, despite warm air advection. Behind the first round of showers will likely be somewhat of a lull Saturday afternoon. Overall rain chances will remain limited with hit-or-miss showers until the surface low`s trailing cold front approaches from the northwest late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Even this isn`t all that impressive with scattered activity confined to a narrow area of convergence along the front. Given marginal convective potential, thunder was kept to slight wording in the going forecast. All should move east with the front by late Saturday evening. Clouds could break late with winds remaining between 5-10 mph, even in the coldest areas of NE Missouri. therefore, frost still looks like a long shot. Sunday currently looks like a dry day between systems with a surface high pushing through the Upper Midwest underneath upper level ridging. There could be some lingering low level moisture through the morning hours, but the loss in moisture depth from late morning into the afternoon will allow for clearing. Temperatures will be held in the 60s as cooler air continues to advect in behind the aforementioned cold front. Upper level flow goes nearly zonal late Sunday into Monday, taking on the slightest tilt out of the southwest. Additional disturbances will begin to push west to east through the zonal flow during this period. As this occurs, the surface boundary stalls through the region, becoming the focus for the storm track from early week through the midweek period. I believe the main feature we will need to watch will be the building ridge over the western Atlantic and southeast CONUS. Should this ridge continue to build westward, it lending to warmer and more moist southwesterly flow over the region. The strength and westward build of this ridge will be a factor in boundary placement, determining the track of additional waves along the boundary, resulting rainfall totals and north/south temperature spread in the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. For now, each of the three days will involve chances for rain with the potential that some rain could be heavy given ample moisture transport out of the gulf. Maples && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Rain has moved southeast of the St. Louis area terminals and the MVFR ceilings at KCPS will move out shortly. Otherwise, a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move southeast evening bringing a brief shower with low VFR or high MVFR ceilings and visibilities at the terminals this evening. Winds will increase from the northwest this evening with gusts above 20kts. Dry and VFR conditions are expected after 06Z. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Rain has moved southeast of the terminal with VFR conditions currently. A line of showers currently over northeast Missouri will move southeast into the terminal around 03Z with brief low VFR or high MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
900 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE...Upper level trof axis was pivoting eastward over the eastern MS/western AL state borders this evening. On the east side of this feature, deep convection has moved rapidly eastward with the back edge of the shield of showers and embedded storms moving out of the far eastern zones. To the south, beyond 20 nautical miles offshore, organized stronger storms continue to track eastward and has required the issuance of marine warnings. Storms may remain potent for awhile longer well offshore. A large plume of deep dry air, per water vapor satellite imagery, was advancing over the forecast area in the wake of earlier passing storms. Despite this, forecasters note bands of showers rotating eastward over central/northern MS within the colder portions of the upper trof axis itself where the back edge of -12 to -14C 500 mb air is aiding in some instability aloft. Lingering moisture was also being lifted by an eastward moving north to south draped frontal boundary positioned from western KY to the central Gulf. Following the departure of the bulk of precipitation, the 26.00Z HRRR high resolution guidance supports the passage of isolated to perhaps scattered showers/thunder thru the remainder of the evening. This activity is shown mainly over the interior with an eastward shift into the eastern zones overnight, as the upper level trof axis and surface front makes passage. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. UPDATE...Shield of showers and embedded storms have moved steadily eastward early this evening and is now over the far eastern zones. Strongest convection is confined to the 20 to 60 nautical mile zones over the marine area and will remain so thru mid, to perhaps late evening. Over the land zones, the severe weather threat has ended. Convective watches have been cancelled and headlines removed from public zones. Another cluster of showers and isolated storms were developing over eastern MS and has been moving east. West of the higher PoPs this evening in the eastern zones, will maintain a small PoP to account for new activity to the northeast. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 26/00Z Issuance...Rain shield is moving east across the area, now primarily east of a Camden to Gulf Shores line. The stronger storms are now located out over the Gulf to the south. Rains will be ending across nearly the entire area by around 20/03z. Low clouds (MVFR) will persist through most of the night, with some patchy light fog possible (but generally MVFR or greater). Light east to southeast winds overnight, becoming more southwesterly early Friday morning and then light to moderate northwesterly late Friday morning. 12/DS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below. MARINE...Currently have a well defined book-end vortex currently moving east across the Gulf just offshore of the Alabama coast south of the mouth of Mobile Bay. KMOB velocity data is indicating winds up to as high as 74 knots just below 3000 feet. Special Marine Warnings are in effect for much of our marine area, where localized wind gusts above 50 knots and very rough seas are expected. 12/DS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...As of 315 PM this afternoon, a convective outflow boundary extends from Butler county southwest generally along I-65 down to Mobile county. A weakly defined warm front appears to extend inland across the western FL panhandle and intersects the outflow boundary somewhere in the vicinity of Conecuh county (where remnants of earlier strong convection has flared up once again). At this time most of that inland convection is expected to continue over our eastern interior zones into early evening, generally remaining strong but sub-severe (although an isolated severe storm could be possible). Further south toward the coast in the areas bounded by by old outflow boundary to the west and the warm front to the east (generally Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia FL, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties) we still have a severe threat this evening, and a Tornado Watch continues until 8 PM CDT. Cooling cloud tops associated with intensifying convection over the offshore MS coastal waters that HiRes models indicate will move east-northeast across our coastal counties early this evening and generally moving east of our area by late evening. This stronger convection will be coincident with the strong 30 to 40 knot low level jet and the better instabilities with MLCAPES continuing to approach 1500 J/KG in this area. Some severe storms with damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado possible. Could see some lingering showers over the eastern half of our forecast area overnight into the predawn hours Friday, but all precipitation is expected to have moved east of our area after daybreak on Friday with no rain expected for the remainder of the day. Lows tonight in the upper 50s over northwestern counties to lower 60s elsewhere. Highs on Friday will be ranging from the mid/upper 70s to the lower 80s. 12/DS SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Weak upper ridging builds into the eastern CONUS in the wake of today`s shortwave trough, bringing quieter weather and clearer skies to the local area this weekend. A weak impulse passes by to our north on Sunday and brings another front south into central and northern AL/MS, where it should stall well north of the local area. No precip is expected in our area with this front due to a lack of moisture and forcing, though areas well inland may see some additional cloudiness on Sunday. Plenty of daytime heating beneath mostly clear skies will support high temps in the upper 70s and low 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Dry air and efficient radiative cooling help overnight lows dip into the upper 40s inland and low 50s along the coast Friday night, then low to mid 50s everywhere Saturday and Sunday nights. /49 LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Upper ridging amplifies over the eastern CONUS as we head into early next week, leading to stronger subsidence and a continuation of warm and sunny weather for the local area. No rain chances in the forecast until late next week. High temps reach the low to mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland each afternoon through the long term. High surface pressure over the eastern Gulf maintains a light southerly wind through the period, which helps gradually bring Gulf moisture back into the area. As a result, overnight lows see a slow warming trend, ranging from upper 50s Monday night to mid 60s by the end of the week. /49 MARINE...A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue across the marine area tonight, gradually subsiding after midnight. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Gulf Waters, MS sound and southern Mobile Bay until 1 AM, with SCEC elsewhere. Some strong to severe storms will be possible near shore early this evening, but convection is expected to move on off to the east of our marine area late this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest and decrease somewhat behind the line of storms as a cold front moves east across the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow is then expected to continue Friday through Saturday, before becoming more east and southeasterly Sunday trough the early part of next week as surface high pressure builds east across the marine area. 12/DS && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
736 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 428 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous shortwave dropping se over southern Manitoba. This will be the next feature of interest for Upper MI. Closer to home, healthy upper divergence from the right entrance of 110kt upper jet extending from northern Lake Superior to southern Quebec has lead to considerable high cloudiness across the fcst area today. It has also supported an expansion of shra to the ne into far s central Upper MI, mainly Menominee County. Separate from this area of shra, more shra have recently developed around KIMT due to weak instability underneath the larger scale upper diffluence. Shra will persist for the next several hrs over s central Upper MI. Not expecting the shra to expand n of where they are currently occurring as the upper diffluence is beginning to shift e. In addition, radar imagery shows an overall s and e trend to the pcpn. Attention then turns to the vigorous shortwave to the nw. This wave will move across Upper MI Fri morning. Associated cold front will swing across the fcst area overnight and will have exited by 12z Fri. With track of the shortwave across Upper MI, best forcing will pass by just to the n and e. Still, there could be a few -shra along the front. If so, only the nw and possibly the n central/ne fcst area would be affected by a brief, isold -shra. Area of low-level moisture following the front will combine with daytime heating and incoming 850mb thermal trof to produce considerable stratocu for a time on Fri. These clouds should be rather short-lived over the w as much drier air arrives in the aftn. Farther e, may end up turning mainly cloudy late morning thru the aftn. Some of the models are generating some light pcpn in the upslope areas of the w. Seems overdone given the shallow moisture depth. Could be some -dz if there is enough low-level moisture for a low stratus deck, but not seeing much in the way of postfrontal low-clouds upstream currently. Have thus left out any pcpn mention for now. Bigger impact of this shortwave will be the wind. Rather vigorous caa occurs, especially across the central and eastern fcst area during the day Fri to increase mixing. Higher sun angle/stronger insolation at this time of year will also aid the mixing. Fcst soundings show the potential to mix into 35 to as high as 45kt winds within a few thousand feet of the ground with the strongest winds aloft to tap into across the eastern fcst area. While not particularly strong, there will be a favorable orienation of the incoming pres rises for an additional isallobaric wind component to the nw/nnw winds, especially e. As a result, expect wind gusts to 40-45mph across roughly the e half of the fcst area Fri aftn. Later shifts will need to consider a wind advy if it appears gusts will be frequently aoa 45mph. To the w, gusts will be mostly in the 25-35mph range. With the blustery winds/caa and clouds, it will be a chilly day. Temps over the e will likely fall into the 30s during the aftn. Temps may reach the upper 40s/around 50F toward the MI/WI stateline late in the aftn. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 432 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019 Models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail through the CONUS as a mid level trough over north central Canada slowly drifts southwest into western Canada. Shortwaves moving through the northern Great Lakes will bring pcpn chances to Upper Michigan Monday and again from late Wed into Thu. Temperatures are expected to remain at or below normal through the period. Friday night into Saturday, a sfc ridge will build into the region bringing diminishing winds Friday along with clearing. Pcpn with the shrtwv and sfc low moving through IA into IL will remain south of Upper Michigan. Stronger winds and mixing over the east will keep temps in the upper 20s while readigns drop to the lower 20s inland west. Sunshine and mixing in a very dry airmass will likely drop dewpoints below guidance into the single digits resulting in low RH values despite the cold air. Sunday, Mid level and sfc ridging will continue to dominate the region with dry weather and gradual warming as highs rebound into the mid and upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Monday, Models have trended toward a stronger shrtwv and sfc trough with higher POPs mentioned. Overall QPF is likely to remain light given limited moisture inflow, with overall amounts in the 0.10-0.25 inch range. Tue-Thu, there is lower confidence with the timing/strength of the shrtwv and sfc trough lifting northeast from the plains from Wed into Thu. Expect greater moisture advection toward the northern Great Lakes with PWAT values to near an inch with the potential for moderate rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 735 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019 With low-levels remaining relatively dry, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KMCX/KSAW thru tonight. A cold front moving across the area tonight will be followed by blustery nw winds on Fri, especially at KCMX/KSAW where gusts to 30kt or higher are expected. In addition, colder air and low-level moisture will likely result in MVFR cigs developing during the morning/early aftn. Skies will clear by Friday evening with diminishing winds. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 428 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019 Ahead of an approaching cold front, winds across Lake Superior will be on the lighter side, under 20kt. The cold front will pass across Lake Superior late evening thru the overnight, bringing a wind shift to the nw. Winds will then ramp up on Fri with gales developing over the central and eastern part of Lake Superior. Will probably see a few hrs with gusts as high as 45kt. After a period of winds gusting 20-25kt over the w in the morning, winds will fall back to mostly under 20kt in the aftn. Winds will diminish blo gale force over the eastern part of Lake Superior during Fri night. Winds will fall back under 20kt over the weekend as high pres builds into the northern Great Lakes. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 2 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ251- 267. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ250- 266. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LSZ248-249-265. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LSZ244-245-264. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 2 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...MZ MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
931 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .DISCUSSION...Forecast generally on track this evening with a few minor updates. Biggest change was to refine hourly POPs to match up with latest radar trends and HRRR runs. Still looks like a few isolated storms could be possible later tonight but mainly expecting rain showers as current MLCAPE values are pretty low across the area, in the 200 to 300 J/kg range. Also made tweaks to hourly temps and dewpoints. All other elements on track. Will issue new zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 71 48 79 / 80 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 68 45 77 / 80 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 69 45 78 / 80 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 63 41 73 / 80 80 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None. && $$ SR