Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/22/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
546 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening - Monday night) Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a closed mid/upper level low near the NV/UT border within a long wave trough over the Intermountain West. Diffluent flow and jet energy aloft combined with a surface convergent boundary from west central through southeast WY into northern CO has triggered numerous showers and scattered tstorms. HRRR progged the bulk of the convection along the I-80 corridor from Rawlins to Laramie through mid-afternoon. There have been some stronger cells capable of producing half-inch hail, gusty winds to 40 mph and locally heavy rainfall. HRRR trends bring this line of showers and storms eastward into Cheyenne later this afternoon. Mostly light rain with a few embedded tstorms persists from the WY/NE border into the NE Panhandle. Temperatures were in the 40s and 50s with northerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. The mid/upper low tracks south into western AZ Monday. Occasional showers will continue tonight and Monday morning, tapering off Monday afternoon. Model QPF focused the heavier precipitation /0.5 to 1.0 inch/ along and south of I-80 and from east-central WY into the northern NE Panhandle through late tonight. Snow levels drop to 6000 feet tonight, with 3 to 6 inches of wet snow confined above 8000 feet. Road surfaces will remain wet, with some slushy spots possible along I-80 between Arlington and Cheyenne. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 20s mountains to the 30s elsewhere. It will remain unseasonably cool Monday with 700mb temperatures from 0 to -4C. Isolated light snow showers will linger over the southeast WY mountains Monday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday - Sunday) Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 A general trend toward warmer & drier conditions through mid/late- week with quasi-zonal flow aloft on the northern fringe of broad & flat upper-level ridging. An occasional weak mid-level disturbance traversing the flow may result in periods of showers & storms, but such precipitation chances are difficult to resolve at this range. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Ceilings will continue to lower early Sunday evening as rain showers continue across the area. Lightning coverage has substantially decreased over the past 2 hours. Guidance suggests IFR ceilings for all terminals by 04Z with LIFR conditions possible. Lowered visibility at KCYS after 06Z as HRRR has suggested the potential for fog, however surface winds remain high at 10 kts. Will need to monitor this during the 06Z TAF issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 No fire weather concerns as cool and moist conditions will persist through Monday. Milder temperatures return Tuesday and last through the end of the week. Lowest relative humidities each afternoon will range from 25 to 30 percent with excellent nighttime recoveries. There will be slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Widespread precipitation with the potential for moderate to heavy amounts are expected this afternoon and tonight. Elevations above 8000 feet could measure several inches of snow by Monday afternoon. While flooding is not anticipated, rain on snow and additional runoff will likely cause streams and rivers to run high for the next several days. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...CLH AVIATION...MB FIRE WEATHER...MAJ HYDROLOGY...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions through much of Monday with high static stability from the surface through 10 kft agl. Varying mid to high cloud anticipated tonight and likely through Monday with anticyclonic wave break region setting up over the western Great Lakes. Light and variable winds tonight will emerge light southerly Monday. Precipitation associated with next low pressure system will remain upstream until Monday night as flow will be slow to become cyclonic. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 DISCUSSION... Mid and high clouds cycling in coverage across Lower Michigan generally have greater extent across the Tri Cities and Thumb for the late afternoon and evening. These clouds are the result of weak mid level moisture transport into the upper level ridge axis and ahead of the low pressure system developing across the central Plains. Dry air in the low levels associated with surface high pressure ensures any high based activity detected by radar evaporates before reaching the ground. The upper level ridge axis about overhead is also forcing some dissipation of the clouds toward the Ohio border which continues on average as the ridge rebuilds to the west and as the mid level theta-e ridge becomes more aligned with the surface front across the northern Great Lakes tonight. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds along with incipient southerly surface wind support a modest diurnal temperature trend with guidance lows in the lower to mid 40s on target by sunrise Monday. Monday and the bulk of Monday night remain dry across SE Michigan as showers and thunderstorms remain focused more along and north of the front stalled across the northern Great Lakes. The central Plains low pressure system moves into the Midwest and builds a warm sector over Lower Michigan during Monday afternoon which makes above normal temperatures the primary weather topic to start the week. Forecast soundings from extended runs of the RAP support non-NAM sounding profiles that easily mix to around 850 mb Monday afternoon as deepening and strengthening southerly flow warms the profile. Model projections of 850 mb temps around 10C make highs in the mid 70s easily reachable even with additional scattered to broken coverage of mid/high clouds. Even the usual cooling influence of Lake Huron is minimized by a stronger south gradient wind that is more along the shoreline. However, a substantial cooling shadow is likely near St Clair/Erie that limits highs to the upper 60s but which still compares favorably to normals in the lower 60s starting the last full week of April. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increase later Monday night as the Midwest low pressure system sends a renewed surge of moisture advection across Lower Michigan. It maintains a strong low to mid level jet on the east flank that forces the primary theta-e ridge strongly eastward. The resulting plume of elevated instability is shown by model 850 mb LI dropping to near -5C from after midnight through Tuesday morning. This may be the best chance for storms as the surface front closely follows the moisture axis and likely clears SE Michigan before surface based instability can develop Tuesday afternoon. Today`s 12Z model cycle remains consistent and in good agreement across solutions on exit timing of the front by Tuesday evening followed by dry and cooler high pressure for the mid week period. Pleasant weather will dominate much of the extended forecast period. With shortwave ridging and surface high pressure overhead, Wednesday will see mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the lower 60s. Weak warm air advection with 850 mb temps near 6 to 7 C moving in will allow temps to rise a few degrees warmer for Thursday with dry conditions continuing. Slight chance for showers overnight into Friday as a shortwave trough moves in from the upper Midwest, otherwise dry weather continues into late Saturday before another weak system tracks through the Great Lakes for the latter half of the weekend. MARINE... Mostly favorable marine conditions with no significant wind events over the next several days as the overall pattern changes for the Great Lakes region. Moderate breeze out of the SE will pick up Monday with an approaching weak low pressure, which will move into the Straits by Tuesday morning. This system will send a cold front through the region and veer winds to the northwest Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Wind gust potential will reach around 20-25 knots with the cold front. Otherwise, winds of 20 knots or less through the mid-week time frame. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...BT/TF MARINE.......AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
917 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Just completed another update. There was a further refining of the pops through the rest of the night. There many locations in the southwest portion of our area that had small hail pile up to around 3 to 4 inches. From the pictures we were able to see on social media, it looked like it snowed. So am thinking there could be the possibility of some hail fog. There is some high resolution indicating the possibility of fog in the far west as well. So inserted some patchy fog into the forecast for after midnight into Monday morning. UPDATE Issued at 624 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Just completed an update. Based on the latest radar trends and Hrrr which is catching reality well, made adjustments to the pops for this evening. Higher pops needed to be pushed to north and east a little faster. Winds are all over the place along with the temperatures. Will take a look at the temperatures and winds when things settle down a little more. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move out of northeast Colorado and across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska this evening as shortwave trough ejects across the area, exiting to the north by around 07z. Severe threat will be limited to about 04z, then wane as boundary layer cools. Primary hazard will be wind gusts of up to 60 mph with favorable DCAPE environment/relatively high bases, followed by a marginal threat of hail up to quarter sized, and finally a low end risk for locally heavy rainfall. Clouds will persist through the night with breezy north winds. Lows will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Clouds will persist into Monday with perhaps some partial clearing late in northern areas. As a result, temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. North winds will be gusty and strongest in the morning, then slowly diminish in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 While near term models show a decent amount of disagreement with how southern plains H5 trough evolves, consensus still appears that system will track well to the south of the area with only slim chances of light precipitation glancing the southern CWA. After system departs, medium range models in reasonable agreement that ridging will build over the area through the weekend. Differences emerge with the amplification and strength of the ridge, with the GFS being a bit more amplified than other available guidance. Regardless of preferred solution, seems like weather will be fairly quiet from Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures slowly warm, but surface flow does not look really favorable for any meaningful moisture return until Thursday Night and Friday as sfc high shifts east and strong southerly flow develops again. Should we get enough moisture/instability development shear profile with fast zonal flow would support some organized/severe storms, but details at this point remain very unclear. Main forecast changes to available guidance were to nudge temperatures to warmer end of distribution/ensemble data, although potential for mountain cirrus limiting insolation a bit concerning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 For Kgld, a gust front is about to come through the site with a reprieve before the winds come up again as the front comes through. Vfr conditions are expected until 10z. Until 02z northwest winds look to be near 25 knots with gusts to around 37 knots. At the same time light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be in the area. At 02z some light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be leaving the area with the wind from the west at 15 knots. From 02z to 04z the winds shift to the north at 10 knots and this will last until near 10z. From 10z to 16z mvfr conditions and north winds near 20 knots with gusts to 29 knots are expected. At 20z vfr conditions will return as winds decrease to 18 knots without gusts. For Kmck, northwest winds near 15 knots and vfr conditions are expected until 14z. Isolated thunderstorms will be near the site from 02z to 05z. From 14z to 19z mvfr conditions and north winds near 20 knots with gusts to 28 knots will occur. At 19z vfr conditions return with north winds of near 19 knots with gusts to 27 knots expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1019 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Low level moisture transport continue to feed into the line of convection currently over central KS from Lincoln south to Great Bend. Latest RAP suggests that this moisture transport will continue to veer to the NE overnight and lift slowly to the NE as well. Current propagation vectors also suggest that the central KS convection will continue to shift E-SE mainly along and north of highway 50 along this moisture transport axis. So think areas south of this convection will stay dry for the overnight hours. Current forecast and grids looks right on track, but will send out an update shortly. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 It has been a warm and windy Easter Sunday across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered over northwest Kansas ahead of a cold front extending across the Northern Plains from the Great Lakes region westward to the Rockies. A distinct dryline extends southward from the surface low through western/central Kansas and into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Ahead of the dryline and front across the CWA, good mixing and a tightened pressure gradient have allowed for gusty south winds that have flirted with advisory criteria this afternoon, particularly in southeast Kansas. Combined with plenty of sunshine, the southerly flow has warmed temperatures into the low 80s areawide this afternoon. Heading into the evening and overnight period is when things begin to get more interesting as the dryline and front slowly progress east/southeast into central Kansas. Convergence along and ahead of these boundaries in concert with an uptick in available low-level moisture could produce some isolated thunderstorms this evening- overnight in central Kansas as the cap in this area erodes. Still think elsewhere in south central Kansas will remain under a strong cap throughout the evening preventing convective initiation. With 1500-2000J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE and fairly steep 700mb-500mb lapse rates, cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm capable of wind gusts up to around 60mph or so. Shear looks marginal at best in the area of weakest convective inhibition, so thinking wind will be the primary threat though some hail up to around 1 inch cannot be completely ruled out. There is still some question regarding precip coverage during the day on Monday. Most models keep south central and southeast Kansas capped during the day on Monday, but the NAM, NAMNEST, and HIRES guidance are much more liberal with chances for isolated to scattered showers along and ahead of the frontal boundary during the day. Even if that turns out the be the case, only marginal instability would prevent widespread thunder in favor of just a few rain showers during the day. Given the uncertainty, felt it was worth including a slight chance mention in the forecast. Monday night through Tuesday, another shortwave will bring better chances for rain showers and thunderstorms to southern Kansas. The threat for severe storms looks low throughout this period, however. Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with highs expected to range in the low to mid 60s area-wide as a result of much lower thickness values, sky cover, and boundary layer cold air advection over the area for much of the day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 The forecast becomes much more quiet in the long term once precip ends for most of the area on Tuesday night. Models have been fairly consistent depicting a mid/upper low that will move across the Southern Plains Wednesday-Thursday. Guidance keeps this system and most, if not all, of its associated precip south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border leaving central, south central, and southeast Kansas dry. A warming trend in temperatures will commence beginning on Wednesday, with highs gradually increasing each day from the low 70s on Wednesday to the low 80s next weekend. Behind the Southern Plains mid/upper low during the middle of the week, a ridging pattern will take over continuing the dry tend until the weekend. Early indications are that a couple of shortwaves could bring chances for showers/thunderstorms overnight Friday night and again Saturday night, but confidence is rather low at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 VFR conditions are expected for most locations over the next 24 hours. A cold front and dryline will gradually push into central KS this evening, with convection over the high plains slowly propagating east into areas along and north of Interstate 70 later this evening. So will include a VCTS for the KRSL/KGBD and KSLN taf sites. Will also go with a tempo group for the KRSL taf, as once TSRA moves into the area, it may produce some gusty winds and reduce vsbys to MVFR for some short periods. Cold front will make slow progress to the S-SE late tonight into early on Mon, with a wind shift expected to the NW. there is some hints at some MVFR or possibly some IFR cigs over SE KS just ahead of the front, so will mention some scattered lower clouds for now. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next week with beneficial rainfall expected across the area from multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 59 76 50 63 / 10 10 40 40 Hutchinson 56 73 47 63 / 30 10 30 30 Newton 57 73 47 62 / 20 10 40 30 ElDorado 60 76 49 62 / 20 20 40 50 Winfield-KWLD 61 77 51 63 / 10 20 60 60 Russell 53 67 43 65 / 30 10 10 10 Great Bend 53 69 44 64 / 30 10 10 20 Salina 56 72 47 65 / 50 10 10 20 McPherson 55 72 47 63 / 40 10 30 20 Coffeyville 62 77 54 63 / 10 20 60 70 Chanute 61 76 52 62 / 20 20 40 60 Iola 61 76 51 61 / 20 20 40 60 Parsons-KPPF 62 76 54 62 / 10 20 50 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...TAV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 H5 analysis from this morning had an amplified pattern across the CONUS. Closed low pressure was noted over southwestern Pennsylvania with a trough of low pressure extending south to the Bahamas. East of this feature, high pressure was located north northeast of Bermuda with a ridge extending north into Newfoundland. West of the wrn PA low, low amplitude ridging extended from the Ozarks north to the upper Mississippi Valley. West of this ridge, a broad area of low pressure was present across the western CONUS. A shortwave was noted over central Nevada with a second shortwave noted over NE Colorado. The NE colorado shortwave, in combination with a cold front, touched off showers and thunderstorms earlier today in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and western Sandhills. This activity has continued into the afternoon hours. At the surface: Low pressure was noted over northwestern Kansas, just west of Hill City. A stationary front extended northeast of the low into south central, then central and northeastern Nebraska, just east of O`Neill. West of the low, the front extended to the west northwest into northeastern Colorado. Behind the front, temperatures ranged from the upper 40s in northwestern Nebraska to around 70 at Imperial and Broken Bow. South and east of the front, temperatures were in the lower to middle 80s in south central and southeastern Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 In the near term, precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be the main forecast challenge. The shortwave trough, currently over nern Colorado, will eject slowly to the east northeast tonight. Two areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The first area will be INVOF the surface front which will be located from northwestern Kansas into south central and northeastern Nebraska. The high res models including the HRRR and 4KM NAM develop convection along the front in northwestern Kansas and south central Nebraska around 00z, lifting this along the front into the evening hours. That being said, with the front expected to be just off to the southeast of the forecast area this evening, the severe threat should be just southeast of the forecast area as well. Further north, more persistent and greater coverage of showers will develop this evening INVOF the shortwave trough and enhanced mid level warm air advection. The mid level warm air advection is strongest over the central and northern cwa tonight. That being said, will continue the highest pops in the central and northern cwa tonight. Will limit pops to slight chance and low end chance pops in the southwest. This area will be by- passed by the best mid level forcing (north) and frontal forcing (south). Precipitation will end from west to east across northern Nebraska on Monday as the H5 shortwave traverses northern Nebraska. Behind the exiting shortwave, dry conditions are expected, however, plenty of mid level moisture, will lead to mostly cloudy skies which will hold highs in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will build into the forecast area Monday night, leading to clearing skies and light winds. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 The midweek will start off dry with the front draped across the southern plains and mid level forcing extending from the desert sw east into central Texas. Highs Tuesday will rebound to the 60s with 70s forecast for Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation will arrive Wednesday night across the northern half of the forecast area. A weak northern stream disturbance will lift from the northern Rockies east into the Dakotas and far northern Nebraska. This disturbance will force a weak cold front into the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. As this front is forced south, mid level lift is much weaker, so dry conditions are anticipated across southern Nebraska. Temperatures behind the front Thursday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will lift through the forecast area Friday, followed by a cold fropa Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the warm front Friday and Friday night. Moisture appears limited with this fropa, so will limit pops to slight chance and low end chance for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 The area of MVFR/IFR ceilings in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across nwrn Nebraska move east tonight and exit ncntl Nebraska Monday afternoon. VFR/areas of MVFR are expected south of highway 2 tonight and Monday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
627 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 428 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019 ...Potential for moderate to heavy rainfall could cause or aggravate existing flooding tonight into Tuesday for the northwest half of Upper Michigan... WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal northern stream mid/upper level flow through southern Canada. In the southern stream, a ridge extended from eastern TX through the mid Mississippi Valley between lows over the central Appalachians and Great Basin. A weak shortwave trough into western Lake Superior along with 850-700 mb fgen supported an area of showers from ne MN into western Upper Michigan. At the surface, a trough extended from s cntrl KS to sw MN with a warm front from srn MN cntrl WI. Tonight, another weak shrtwv along with continued 850-700 mb fgen will continue to support bands of moderate to ocnly heavy rain. Radar/satellite trends suggest that the heavier pcpn will likely extend from western lake Superior into the Keweenaw. Although the majority of SREF members and high res models suggest the heaviest rain axis will remain from IWD-CMX, there are enough models, including the NAM that bring the bands farther south into cntrl Upper Michigan so that confidence is still limited. Monday, as the stronger cntrl Plains shrtwv and sfc low lifts closer to the area, moisture transport will increase(PWAT values above 1.0 inch) with the potential for moderate to heavy rain continuing through the nw half of Upper Michigan in bands of low to mid level fgen in the area of upper level div from the right entrance of the 250-300 jet over northern Ontario. The heavier rain is expected to shift from the west in the morning to the central in the afternoon into the evening. Overall QPF values from around 1.0 inch central to near 2.0 inches over the west into Mon evening represents a northwest shift of the heavier rain compared to previous forecasts. Nevertheless, the combination of substantial rainfall amounts along with continued snowmelt (remaining SWE values of 4 to 8 inches high terrain northwest to 2-4 inches central) could still result in flooding on small creeks and rivers. So, that flood watch will continue for the northwest half. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 355 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019 An active pattern will continue to bring additional chance for precipitation after the slow-moving system vacations the region early Tuesday. The inherited Flood Watch looks good, so did not make any changes in regards to timing as there should be some lag between flooding impacts and when the heavier rainfall exits the region. In regards to temperatures next week into the following weekend, we will see seasonable temperatures in the 50s, with a few warmer days towards the middle of the week. Monday night into Tuesday: Low pressure will slowly slide across central Lake Michigan and northern portions of Lower Michigan, with the main Fgen band slowly pushing eastward across the Upper Peninsula. This will allow ongoing moderate to at times heavy rain to slowly push eastward during the overnight Monday and into the early morning hours Tuesday. With northeasterly flow on the backside, high-res models are picking up on enhanced rainfall amounts over the north central due to upslope conditions. Didn`t buy into the higher-end of high-res guidance, but did hit the higher terrain a bit hard with the QPF during this time period. Certainly still expect flooding issues to arise from the mod/heavy rain interacting with saturated soils and some areas that are still holding onto a water-loaded snowpack. Tuesday through Wednesday: During the morning hours, precipitation will continue to push east of the region and conditions will dry out. On Wednesday, as shortwave energy tracks along the US/Canadian border, warm air advection will foster warmer and breezy conditions ahead of the trailing cold front. Could see a few afternoon showers ahead of and along the front on Wednesday, mainly across the west. Thursday through the upcoming weekend: The active pattern continues as another shortwave trough digs across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. As this waves moves through, we will see another chance for showers from west to east on Thursday. A brief period of dry weather will follow on Friday as high pressure slides east across the region. As low-pressure begins to develop in the lee of the Rockies/northern Plains Friday night into Saturday, warm air advection will surge northward across the central CONUS, making it`s way northward towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. As another shortwave digs south across the Great Lakes next weekend, this will shift the axis of return flow across the Upper Peninsula bringing back chances for widespread precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 627 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019 Conditions will continue to drop as rain continues across the area and lower clouds and fog develops at all sites. Conditions overnight will deteriorate further at all sites to IFR/LIFR which will last into Mon afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 428 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019 Northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected on the western end of Lake Superior tonight into Monday with north winds 20 to 25 knots into central Lake Superior Monday night into Tuesday. Areas of fog could develop beginning tonight and continuing into Tuesday as rain and higher dewpoints are expected to move over the lake. Otherwise, a quiet stretch of weather will continue from midweek on as winds remain below at or below 20 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ001>005-009-010-084. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB