Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/22/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
546 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening - Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a closed mid/upper level low near
the NV/UT border within a long wave trough over the Intermountain
West. Diffluent flow and jet energy aloft combined with a surface
convergent boundary from west central through southeast WY into
northern CO has triggered numerous showers and scattered tstorms.
HRRR progged the bulk of the convection along the I-80 corridor
from Rawlins to Laramie through mid-afternoon. There have been
some stronger cells capable of producing half-inch hail, gusty
winds to 40 mph and locally heavy rainfall. HRRR trends bring this
line of showers and storms eastward into Cheyenne later this
afternoon. Mostly light rain with a few embedded tstorms persists
from the WY/NE border into the NE Panhandle. Temperatures were in
the 40s and 50s with northerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
mph.
The mid/upper low tracks south into western AZ Monday. Occasional
showers will continue tonight and Monday morning, tapering off Monday
afternoon. Model QPF focused the heavier precipitation /0.5 to 1.0
inch/ along and south of I-80 and from east-central WY into the
northern NE Panhandle through late tonight. Snow levels drop to
6000 feet tonight, with 3 to 6 inches of wet snow confined above
8000 feet. Road surfaces will remain wet, with some slushy spots
possible along I-80 between Arlington and Cheyenne. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the 20s mountains to the 30s elsewhere. It
will remain unseasonably cool Monday with 700mb temperatures from
0 to -4C. Isolated light snow showers will linger over the southeast
WY mountains Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday - Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
A general trend toward warmer & drier conditions through mid/late-
week with quasi-zonal flow aloft on the northern fringe of broad &
flat upper-level ridging. An occasional weak mid-level disturbance
traversing the flow may result in periods of showers & storms, but
such precipitation chances are difficult to resolve at this range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Ceilings will continue to lower early Sunday evening as rain
showers continue across the area. Lightning coverage has
substantially decreased over the past 2 hours. Guidance suggests
IFR ceilings for all terminals by 04Z with LIFR conditions
possible. Lowered visibility at KCYS after 06Z as HRRR has
suggested the potential for fog, however surface winds remain high
at 10 kts. Will need to monitor this during the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
No fire weather concerns as cool and moist conditions will persist
through Monday. Milder temperatures return Tuesday and last through
the end of the week. Lowest relative humidities each afternoon will
range from 25 to 30 percent with excellent nighttime recoveries. There
will be slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Widespread precipitation with the potential for moderate to heavy
amounts are expected this afternoon and tonight. Elevations above
8000 feet could measure several inches of snow by Monday afternoon.
While flooding is not anticipated, rain on snow and additional runoff
will likely cause streams and rivers to run high for the next several
days.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through much of Monday with high static stability
from the surface through 10 kft agl. Varying mid to high cloud
anticipated tonight and likely through Monday with anticyclonic wave
break region setting up over the western Great Lakes. Light and
variable winds tonight will emerge light southerly Monday.
Precipitation associated with next low pressure system will remain
upstream until Monday night as flow will be slow to become cyclonic.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019
DISCUSSION...
Mid and high clouds cycling in coverage across Lower Michigan
generally have greater extent across the Tri Cities and Thumb for
the late afternoon and evening. These clouds are the result of weak
mid level moisture transport into the upper level ridge axis and
ahead of the low pressure system developing across the central
Plains. Dry air in the low levels associated with surface high
pressure ensures any high based activity detected by radar
evaporates before reaching the ground. The upper level ridge axis
about overhead is also forcing some dissipation of the clouds toward
the Ohio border which continues on average as the ridge rebuilds to
the west and as the mid level theta-e ridge becomes more aligned with
the surface front across the northern Great Lakes tonight. Scattered
to broken mid/high clouds along with incipient southerly surface
wind support a modest diurnal temperature trend with guidance lows in
the lower to mid 40s on target by sunrise Monday.
Monday and the bulk of Monday night remain dry across SE Michigan as
showers and thunderstorms remain focused more along and north of the
front stalled across the northern Great Lakes. The central Plains
low pressure system moves into the Midwest and builds a warm sector
over Lower Michigan during Monday afternoon which makes above normal
temperatures the primary weather topic to start the week. Forecast
soundings from extended runs of the RAP support non-NAM sounding
profiles that easily mix to around 850 mb Monday afternoon as
deepening and strengthening southerly flow warms the profile. Model
projections of 850 mb temps around 10C make highs in the mid 70s
easily reachable even with additional scattered to broken coverage
of mid/high clouds. Even the usual cooling influence of Lake Huron
is minimized by a stronger south gradient wind that is more along
the shoreline. However, a substantial cooling shadow is likely near
St Clair/Erie that limits highs to the upper 60s but which still
compares favorably to normals in the lower 60s starting the last
full week of April.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms increase later Monday night
as the Midwest low pressure system sends a renewed surge of moisture
advection across Lower Michigan. It maintains a strong low to mid
level jet on the east flank that forces the primary theta-e ridge
strongly eastward. The resulting plume of elevated instability is
shown by model 850 mb LI dropping to near -5C from after midnight
through Tuesday morning. This may be the best chance for storms as
the surface front closely follows the moisture axis and likely
clears SE Michigan before surface based instability can develop
Tuesday afternoon. Today`s 12Z model cycle remains consistent and in
good agreement across solutions on exit timing of the front by
Tuesday evening followed by dry and cooler high pressure for the mid
week period.
Pleasant weather will dominate much of the extended forecast period.
With shortwave ridging and surface high pressure overhead, Wednesday
will see mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the
lower 60s. Weak warm air advection with 850 mb temps near 6 to 7 C
moving in will allow temps to rise a few degrees warmer for Thursday
with dry conditions continuing. Slight chance for showers overnight
into Friday as a shortwave trough moves in from the upper Midwest,
otherwise dry weather continues into late Saturday before another
weak system tracks through the Great Lakes for the latter half of
the weekend.
MARINE...
Mostly favorable marine conditions with no significant wind events
over the next several days as the overall pattern changes for the
Great Lakes region. Moderate breeze out of the SE will pick up
Monday with an approaching weak low pressure, which will move into
the Straits by Tuesday morning. This system will send a cold front
through the region and veer winds to the northwest Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Wind gust potential will reach around 20-25 knots
with the cold front. Otherwise, winds of 20 knots or less through
the mid-week time frame.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...BT/TF
MARINE.......AA
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
917 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Just completed another update. There was a further refining of the
pops through the rest of the night. There many locations in the
southwest portion of our area that had small hail pile up to
around 3 to 4 inches. From the pictures we were able to see on
social media, it looked like it snowed. So am thinking there could
be the possibility of some hail fog. There is some high resolution
indicating the possibility of fog in the far west as well. So
inserted some patchy fog into the forecast for after midnight into
Monday morning.
UPDATE Issued at 624 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Just completed an update. Based on the latest radar trends and
Hrrr which is catching reality well, made adjustments to the pops
for this evening. Higher pops needed to be pushed to north and
east a little faster. Winds are all over the place along with the
temperatures. Will take a look at the temperatures and winds when
things settle down a little more.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move out of northeast
Colorado and across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska this
evening as shortwave trough ejects across the area, exiting to
the north by around 07z. Severe threat will be limited to about
04z, then wane as boundary layer cools. Primary hazard will be
wind gusts of up to 60 mph with favorable DCAPE environment/relatively
high bases, followed by a marginal threat of hail up to quarter
sized, and finally a low end risk for locally heavy rainfall.
Clouds will persist through the night with breezy north winds.
Lows will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 50s in
north central Kansas. Clouds will persist into Monday with perhaps
some partial clearing late in northern areas. As a result,
temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. North winds will be gusty and strongest in the morning,
then slowly diminish in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
While near term models show a decent amount of disagreement with
how southern plains H5 trough evolves, consensus still appears
that system will track well to the south of the area with only
slim chances of light precipitation glancing the southern CWA.
After system departs, medium range models in reasonable agreement
that ridging will build over the area through the weekend.
Differences emerge with the amplification and strength of the ridge,
with the GFS being a bit more amplified than other available
guidance.
Regardless of preferred solution, seems like weather will be
fairly quiet from Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures slowly
warm, but surface flow does not look really favorable for any
meaningful moisture return until Thursday Night and Friday as sfc
high shifts east and strong southerly flow develops again. Should
we get enough moisture/instability development shear profile with
fast zonal flow would support some organized/severe storms, but
details at this point remain very unclear. Main forecast changes
to available guidance were to nudge temperatures to warmer end of
distribution/ensemble data, although potential for mountain cirrus
limiting insolation a bit concerning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
For Kgld, a gust front is about to come through the site with a
reprieve before the winds come up again as the front comes
through. Vfr conditions are expected until 10z. Until 02z
northwest winds look to be near 25 knots with gusts to around 37
knots. At the same time light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be in the area. At 02z some light rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be leaving the area with the wind
from the west at 15 knots. From 02z to 04z the winds shift to the
north at 10 knots and this will last until near 10z.
From 10z to 16z mvfr conditions and north winds near 20 knots with
gusts to 29 knots are expected. At 20z vfr conditions will return
as winds decrease to 18 knots without gusts.
For Kmck, northwest winds near 15 knots and vfr conditions are
expected until 14z. Isolated thunderstorms will be near the site
from 02z to 05z. From 14z to 19z mvfr conditions and north winds
near 20 knots with gusts to 28 knots will occur. At 19z vfr
conditions return with north winds of near 19 knots with gusts to
27 knots expected.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1019 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Low level moisture transport continue to feed into the line of
convection currently over central KS from Lincoln south to Great
Bend. Latest RAP suggests that this moisture transport will
continue to veer to the NE overnight and lift slowly to the NE as
well. Current propagation vectors also suggest that the central KS
convection will continue to shift E-SE mainly along and north of
highway 50 along this moisture transport axis. So think areas south
of this convection will stay dry for the overnight hours.
Current forecast and grids looks right on track, but will send out
an update shortly.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
It has been a warm and windy Easter Sunday across central, south
central, and southeast Kansas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure is centered over northwest Kansas ahead of a cold front
extending across the Northern Plains from the Great Lakes region
westward to the Rockies. A distinct dryline extends southward from
the surface low through western/central Kansas and into the
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Ahead of the dryline and front
across the CWA, good mixing and a tightened pressure gradient have
allowed for gusty south winds that have flirted with advisory
criteria this afternoon, particularly in southeast Kansas.
Combined with plenty of sunshine, the southerly flow has warmed
temperatures into the low 80s areawide this afternoon.
Heading into the evening and overnight period is when things
begin to get more interesting as the dryline and front slowly
progress east/southeast into central Kansas. Convergence along and
ahead of these boundaries in concert with an uptick in available
low-level moisture could produce some isolated thunderstorms this
evening- overnight in central Kansas as the cap in this area
erodes. Still think elsewhere in south central Kansas will remain
under a strong cap throughout the evening preventing convective
initiation. With 1500-2000J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE and fairly steep
700mb-500mb lapse rates, cannot rule out a strong to marginally
severe storm capable of wind gusts up to around 60mph or so. Shear
looks marginal at best in the area of weakest convective
inhibition, so thinking wind will be the primary threat though
some hail up to around 1 inch cannot be completely ruled out.
There is still some question regarding precip coverage during the
day on Monday. Most models keep south central and southeast Kansas
capped during the day on Monday, but the NAM, NAMNEST, and HIRES
guidance are much more liberal with chances for isolated to
scattered showers along and ahead of the frontal boundary during
the day. Even if that turns out the be the case, only marginal
instability would prevent widespread thunder in favor of just a
few rain showers during the day. Given the uncertainty, felt it
was worth including a slight chance mention in the forecast.
Monday night through Tuesday, another shortwave will bring better
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms to southern Kansas. The
threat for severe storms looks low throughout this period,
however. Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with highs
expected to range in the low to mid 60s area-wide as a result of
much lower thickness values, sky cover, and boundary layer cold
air advection over the area for much of the day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
The forecast becomes much more quiet in the long term once precip
ends for most of the area on Tuesday night. Models have been
fairly consistent depicting a mid/upper low that will move across
the Southern Plains Wednesday-Thursday. Guidance keeps this system
and most, if not all, of its associated precip south of the
Kansas/Oklahoma border leaving central, south central, and
southeast Kansas dry. A warming trend in temperatures will
commence beginning on Wednesday, with highs gradually increasing
each day from the low 70s on Wednesday to the low 80s next
weekend. Behind the Southern Plains mid/upper low during the
middle of the week, a ridging pattern will take over continuing
the dry tend until the weekend. Early indications are that a
couple of shortwaves could bring chances for showers/thunderstorms overnight
Friday night and again Saturday night, but confidence is rather
low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
VFR conditions are expected for most locations over the next 24
hours. A cold front and dryline will gradually push into central KS
this evening, with convection over the high plains slowly
propagating east into areas along and north of Interstate 70 later
this evening. So will include a VCTS for the KRSL/KGBD and KSLN taf
sites. Will also go with a tempo group for the KRSL taf, as once
TSRA moves into the area, it may produce some gusty winds and reduce
vsbys to MVFR for some short periods.
Cold front will make slow progress to the S-SE late tonight into
early on Mon, with a wind shift expected to the NW. there is some
hints at some MVFR or possibly some IFR cigs over SE KS just ahead
of the front, so will mention some scattered lower clouds for now.
Ketcham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next week with
beneficial rainfall expected across the area from multiple
chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 59 76 50 63 / 10 10 40 40
Hutchinson 56 73 47 63 / 30 10 30 30
Newton 57 73 47 62 / 20 10 40 30
ElDorado 60 76 49 62 / 20 20 40 50
Winfield-KWLD 61 77 51 63 / 10 20 60 60
Russell 53 67 43 65 / 30 10 10 10
Great Bend 53 69 44 64 / 30 10 10 20
Salina 56 72 47 65 / 50 10 10 20
McPherson 55 72 47 63 / 40 10 30 20
Coffeyville 62 77 54 63 / 10 20 60 70
Chanute 61 76 52 62 / 20 20 40 60
Iola 61 76 51 61 / 20 20 40 60
Parsons-KPPF 62 76 54 62 / 10 20 50 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...TAV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
H5 analysis from this morning had an amplified pattern
across the CONUS. Closed low pressure was noted over southwestern
Pennsylvania with a trough of low pressure extending south to the
Bahamas. East of this feature, high pressure was located north
northeast of Bermuda with a ridge extending north into Newfoundland.
West of the wrn PA low, low amplitude ridging extended from the
Ozarks north to the upper Mississippi Valley. West of this ridge, a
broad area of low pressure was present across the western CONUS. A
shortwave was noted over central Nevada with a second shortwave
noted over NE Colorado. The NE colorado shortwave, in combination
with a cold front, touched off showers and thunderstorms earlier
today in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and western Sandhills. This
activity has continued into the afternoon hours. At the surface: Low
pressure was noted over northwestern Kansas, just west of Hill City.
A stationary front extended northeast of the low into south central,
then central and northeastern Nebraska, just east of O`Neill. West
of the low, the front extended to the west northwest into
northeastern Colorado. Behind the front, temperatures ranged from the
upper 40s in northwestern Nebraska to around 70 at Imperial and
Broken Bow. South and east of the front, temperatures were in the
lower to middle 80s in south central and southeastern Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
In the near term, precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be
the main forecast challenge. The shortwave trough, currently over
nern Colorado, will eject slowly to the east northeast tonight.
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
The first area will be INVOF the surface front which will be
located from northwestern Kansas into south central and
northeastern Nebraska. The high res models including the HRRR and
4KM NAM develop convection along the front in northwestern Kansas
and south central Nebraska around 00z, lifting this along the
front into the evening hours. That being said, with the front
expected to be just off to the southeast of the forecast area this
evening, the severe threat should be just southeast of the
forecast area as well. Further north, more persistent and greater
coverage of showers will develop this evening INVOF the shortwave
trough and enhanced mid level warm air advection. The mid level
warm air advection is strongest over the central and northern cwa
tonight. That being said, will continue the highest pops in the
central and northern cwa tonight. Will limit pops to slight chance
and low end chance pops in the southwest. This area will be by-
passed by the best mid level forcing (north) and frontal forcing
(south). Precipitation will end from west to east across northern
Nebraska on Monday as the H5 shortwave traverses northern
Nebraska. Behind the exiting shortwave, dry conditions are
expected, however, plenty of mid level moisture, will lead to
mostly cloudy skies which will hold highs in the lower to middle
50s. High pressure will build into the forecast area Monday night,
leading to clearing skies and light winds.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
The midweek will start off dry
with the front draped across the southern plains and mid level
forcing extending from the desert sw east into central Texas. Highs
Tuesday will rebound to the 60s with 70s forecast for Wednesday. The
next chance for precipitation will arrive Wednesday night across the
northern half of the forecast area. A weak northern stream
disturbance will lift from the northern Rockies east into the
Dakotas and far northern Nebraska. This disturbance will force a
weak cold front into the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday. As this front is forced south, mid level lift is much
weaker, so dry conditions are anticipated across southern Nebraska.
Temperatures behind the front Thursday will be slightly cooler, with
highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will
lift through the forecast area Friday, followed by a cold fropa
Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
warm front Friday and Friday night. Moisture appears limited with
this fropa, so will limit pops to slight chance and low end chance
for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
The area of MVFR/IFR ceilings in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across nwrn Nebraska move east tonight and exit
ncntl Nebraska Monday afternoon. VFR/areas of MVFR are expected
south of highway 2 tonight and Monday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
627 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 428 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019
...Potential for moderate to heavy rainfall could cause or aggravate
existing flooding tonight into Tuesday for the northwest half of
Upper Michigan...
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal northern stream
mid/upper level flow through southern Canada. In the southern
stream, a ridge extended from eastern TX through the mid
Mississippi Valley between lows over the central Appalachians and
Great Basin. A weak shortwave trough into western Lake Superior
along with 850-700 mb fgen supported an area of showers from ne MN
into western Upper Michigan. At the surface, a trough extended
from s cntrl KS to sw MN with a warm front from srn MN cntrl WI.
Tonight, another weak shrtwv along with continued 850-700 mb fgen
will continue to support bands of moderate to ocnly heavy rain.
Radar/satellite trends suggest that the heavier pcpn will likely
extend from western lake Superior into the Keweenaw. Although the
majority of SREF members and high res models suggest the heaviest
rain axis will remain from IWD-CMX, there are enough models,
including the NAM that bring the bands farther south into cntrl
Upper Michigan so that confidence is still limited.
Monday, as the stronger cntrl Plains shrtwv and sfc low lifts closer
to the area, moisture transport will increase(PWAT values above 1.0
inch) with the potential for moderate to heavy rain continuing
through the nw half of Upper Michigan in bands of low to mid level
fgen in the area of upper level div from the right entrance of the
250-300 jet over northern Ontario. The heavier rain is expected to
shift from the west in the morning to the central in the afternoon
into the evening.
Overall QPF values from around 1.0 inch central to near 2.0 inches
over the west into Mon evening represents a northwest shift of the
heavier rain compared to previous forecasts. Nevertheless, the
combination of substantial rainfall amounts along with continued
snowmelt (remaining SWE values of 4 to 8 inches high terrain
northwest to 2-4 inches central) could still result in flooding
on small creeks and rivers. So, that flood watch will continue for
the northwest half.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019
An active pattern will continue to bring additional chance for
precipitation after the slow-moving system vacations the region
early Tuesday. The inherited Flood Watch looks good, so did not make
any changes in regards to timing as there should be some lag between
flooding impacts and when the heavier rainfall exits the region. In
regards to temperatures next week into the following weekend, we
will see seasonable temperatures in the 50s, with a few warmer days
towards the middle of the week.
Monday night into Tuesday: Low pressure will slowly slide across
central Lake Michigan and northern portions of Lower Michigan, with
the main Fgen band slowly pushing eastward across the Upper
Peninsula. This will allow ongoing moderate to at times heavy rain
to slowly push eastward during the overnight Monday and into the
early morning hours Tuesday. With northeasterly flow on the
backside, high-res models are picking up on enhanced rainfall
amounts over the north central due to upslope conditions. Didn`t buy
into the higher-end of high-res guidance, but did hit the higher
terrain a bit hard with the QPF during this time period. Certainly
still expect flooding issues to arise from the mod/heavy rain
interacting with saturated soils and some areas that are still
holding onto a water-loaded snowpack.
Tuesday through Wednesday: During the morning hours, precipitation
will continue to push east of the region and conditions will dry
out. On Wednesday, as shortwave energy tracks along the US/Canadian
border, warm air advection will foster warmer and breezy conditions
ahead of the trailing cold front. Could see a few afternoon showers
ahead of and along the front on Wednesday, mainly across the west.
Thursday through the upcoming weekend: The active pattern continues
as another shortwave trough digs across the Upper Mississippi Valley
on Thursday. As this waves moves through, we will see another chance
for showers from west to east on Thursday. A brief period of dry
weather will follow on Friday as high pressure slides east across
the region. As low-pressure begins to develop in the lee of the
Rockies/northern Plains Friday night into Saturday, warm air
advection will surge northward across the central CONUS, making it`s
way northward towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. As another
shortwave digs south across the Great Lakes next weekend, this will
shift the axis of return flow across the Upper Peninsula bringing
back chances for widespread precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 627 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019
Conditions will continue to drop as rain continues across the area
and lower clouds and fog develops at all sites. Conditions overnight
will deteriorate further at all sites to IFR/LIFR which will last
into Mon afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 428 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2019
Northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected on the western end of
Lake Superior tonight into Monday with north winds 20 to 25 knots
into central Lake Superior Monday night into Tuesday. Areas of fog
could develop beginning tonight and continuing into Tuesday as rain
and higher dewpoints are expected to move over the lake. Otherwise,
a quiet stretch of weather will continue from midweek on as winds
remain below at or below 20 knots.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ001>005-009-010-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB