Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/20/19

National Weather Service Binghamton NY
814 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A large slow moving low pressure system will move from the Tennessee Valley through the Mid-Atlantic region into the weekend, bringing periods of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms to most of the area tonight. On and off rain showers with mild temperatures this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 8 pm update... Minor update to tonight`s forecast. Forecast in good shape. A surface boundary has moved south into the Finger Lakes. Behind it is stable air with temperatures around 50. On the south side of it temperatures and dewpoints around 60. The Chemung basins are getting the best rain now but that will move east. 345 PM Update...Latest GOES-East water vapor and IR satellite loop continue to show a deep moisture fetch extending from the Florida peninsula, across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and now entering PA. The upper level circulation continues to spin over Alabama/Mississippi increasing the moist, southerly flow into our area. Surface temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to mid-70s areawide, with dew points rising into the upper 50s and near 60 already. SPC mesoanalysis shows PWATs rising fast (1.3-1.5 inches) as the area of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms rides north across east-central PA. Low level moisture transport is impressive, with a strong low level jet, upwards of 50 kts expected at 850mb later this evening. The warm cloud layer will be approaching 9000-10000 ft through this event. There is also some surface based and ML CAPE present across NE PA and the NY southern tier; mainly less than 350 J/Kg into the late evening. Overall the set up remains favorable for periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms across much of the area this evening and into tonight. The heaviest batch of rain likely impacts the area from about 9PM to 3 AM. SPC continues to advertise a marginal risk for an isolated strong to severe storm over the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA this evening...with the main threat being isolated strong, gusty thunderstorm winds. There is around 40 kts of bulk effective shear in place. Latest radar and mesoscale model trends show the heaviest rain axis shifting a bit west from earlier runs. There still remains uncertainty on exactly where this narrow band of the heaviest rain ultimately sets up; current forecast put this across Bradford, Wyoming, Chemung, Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties. In this area a solid 1-2 inches of rain is forecast, with localized amounts around 3 inches also possible. Expanded the flash flood watch a bit west, to now included Steuben, Schuyler and Tompkins counties. The entire watch area still looks to receive between 1-2", with locally higher totals. Used a blend of the latest guidance, including WPC, RFC and some of the HRRR for our official QPF amounts. Further north, outside of the watch area expect a soaking 0.75 to 1.50 inch rainfall. Main stem rivers are still expected to remain mostly below flood stage; but smaller creeks and perhaps a few flashier headwater points could get into minor flooding. The rain looks to gradually taper off from west to east after 2-5am tonight, exiting the eastern areas toward or just after daybreak Saturday. Much of the area gets into a dry slot from later Saturday morning into the afternoon. There will be some marginal instability, so could still see a scattered pop up shower. Think there will be some breaks of sun during the day and very mild temperatures as southerly winds increase between 10-20 mph once again. Highs will reach 65-75 areawide. Saturday night: The upper level low continues to slowly spin over the Appalachians and will bring more cloud covers and perhaps an isolated shower to the region. Our area finally gets under the cold pool aloft, so low temperatures will be cooler; in the 40s to near 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 pm update... An upper level low over WV will move northeast through PA sunday and Sunday night. Moisture and forcing with this will cause some showers especially in the afternoon and evening due to diurnal heating. Sunday ahead of the low, high temperatures get into the 60s. The airmass is only slightly colder with the upper level low. Monday highs again in the 60s with more showers. Lows Sunday night in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 pm update... Models have come into better agreement but that won`t take much. both Euro and GFS have a low lifting northeast along a frontal boundary with another round of showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. That track of the low will make a difference on the high temperatures. With the current track to the north and approaching late in the day, temperatures should get into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows again mostly 40s. Wednesday drier and cooler air moves in behind the low. Still a few showers and temperatures peak mid 50s to mid 60s far south. On Thursday some signs of the frontal boundary sinking to our south leaving a dry day. Again Thursday morning lows mainly in the 40s with highs in the 60s. Friday an upper level trough could send a cold front southeast into the area with showers. Temperatures similar again with lows 40s, highs 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 730 pm update... Complicated forecast as lower conditions close in from the north, west, and south. Generally cigs and vsbys fall this evening to IFR/low MVFR then slowly improve Saturday. Adding to that is the chance of thunderstorms at least AVP and maybe into NY. Also some low level wind shear at AVP. Surface boundary dropping south into SYR/ITH with IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys around 05z. RME also falls to IFR around this time. ELM/BGM also fall to IFR cigs around 06z as steadier rain moves in. AVP should only fall to fuel alternate MVFR. CNY sites return to MVFR around 16z. AVP/ELM go to VFR around 18z but other sites hold onto MVFR a few more hours. At AVP south winds 10 kts but at 2k feet 40 kts. In NY winds shifting to east or even northwest behind the front. Winds speeds of 5 to 10 kts. On Saturday Winds shift to the south and increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Outlook... Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. Sunday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ022>025- 044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC NEAR TERM...MJM/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...TAC
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... For tonight periods of rain...locally heavy at times...will continue into Saturday. This rainfall combined with higher elevation snowmelt will cause significant rises on many streams and rivers with multiple rivers reaching flood stage by Saturday. Additional showers are likely on Saturday, especially across Vermont with a large range in temperatures anticipated due to a sharp cold front in the area. Cooler and unsettled weather continues for Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1048 PM EDT Friday...Flood Watch continues with no big changes at this time. We continue to see waves of precipitation moving up across the area with the Saint Lawrence Valley seeing a half to just over an inch of rain with a steady decrease in precipitation amounts as one heads east. That will be changing as more waves of precipitation over the mid-Atlantic states move north-northeast up into the region. Will not take much to get higher rainfall amounts everywhere and more noticeably rises on area waterways will be taking place as the night wears on. Only tweak was to match the sharp thermal gradient across the area. Previous Discussion... Flood Watch goes into effect this evening at 6 PM and continues until Noon on Sunday. Still anticipating multiple rivers to reach flood stage and several to approach moderate flood stage by Saturday based on the Northeast River Forecast Center`s latest forecasts. Isolated convection this evening into the overnight hours could produce higher rainfall rates with localized flash flooding possible, especially across the higher trrn of the Dacks into the mountains of VT. Forecast challenge continues to be placement of heaviest precipitation axis through Saturday, but general trends have been for a slight shift south with axis from northern NY into central VT, for widespread 1 to 2 inches expected and isolated higher amounts possible. Water vapor shows an impressive closed 5h/7h circulation across the MS Valley with deep moisture advection across the entire eastern CONUS. In addition, classic baroclinic leaf is present, indicating region of strong upper level divergence from rrq of 150 knot jet and multiple rounds of convection is observed upstream. Surface analysis shows sharp boundary slowly sagging south across the SLV and northern/central CPV as of early this aftn, with temps well into the 70s and dew points in the 50s ahead of this front. This strong low level convergence will serve as the focus for multiple periods of showers with enhanced higher rainfall rates in the warm sector associated with stronger convective elements through the overnight hours. The best 925mb to 850mb fgen forcing and associated rainfall will extend from northern NY into northern VT, while the best instability with capes of 300 to 800 J/kg and deeper convection will be from eastern Dacks into central/southern VT. Other ingredients supporting widespread moderate to localized heavy rainfall is pws climbing btwn 1.0 and 1.5 inches, strong IVT signal, good south to southwest nose of 850mb jet of 40 to 50 knots, and favorable jet position, helping to enhance deep synoptic scale lift. Given pockets of elevated instability lingering throughout the overnight hours, a few embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be rules out, especially southern cwa. High resolution NAM 3km, HRRR, BTV4km, and RAP13 all indicate this potential. For Saturday...Deep closed 5h/7h circulation slowly moves east with strong mid level southerly flow prevails. The forecast challenge for Saturday is the placement of well defined dry slot and axis of deep tropical moisture feed from the Atlantic. GFS continues well defined mid level dry slot impacting most of our cwa on Saturday, while RAP/NAM and HRRR show deep layer moisture with additional threat for showers with heavier rainfall amounts. Thinking this scenario looks reasonable, given deep cutoff of system with negative tilt, which will help to advect deeper moisture into VT. Will mention likely to cat pops with additional rainfall expected. eventually dry slot develops btwn 18-21z and steadier rainfall should exit to our east with just scattered showers overnight Saturday. Guidance shows warm front lifting back north with 925mb temps climb btwn 15-16c on Saturday, resulting in very mild temps and more high elevation snow melt. Expecting highs mid 60s to mid 70s, with mid slopes well into the 50s, especially eastern sections. If clearing can develop in dry slot, temps could be warmer. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 252 PM EDT Friday...A generally cloudy and warm day is expected on Sunday while cut off low lifts north. Relatively dry air in place will prevent widespread showers, but vort maxes spiraling along the upper low as well as orographic lift will keep slight chance for showers across higher terrain. Towards Sunday night, upper low sluggishly advances northeast and deep moisture will begin to return. A surface low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and increase chances for precipitation Sunday night mainly across portions of southern and eastern Vermont. Highs forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 252 PM EDT Friday...Weather pattern remains unsettled. Low pressure continues to slowly lift towards the Maine Coast, bringing showers mainly to eastern VT. This shifts eastward Tuesday and precipitation gradually decreases until a shortwave dives east from the Great Lakes late Tuesday. This is followed by yet another, stronger shortwave on Wednesday. This initiates development of a coastal low with wrap around precipitation keeping chances for showers, mainly in the Northeast Kingdom, going through Wednesday. The best weather day looks to be next Thursday, when a brief upper ridge builds into place. Quiet weather will be short-lived with another system reaching the North Country next Friday. Temperatures above normal, then become near normal on Wednesday, and then trend back upwards. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Ceilings and visibilities will continue to lower through 04z as widespread precipitation moves into the region. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to develop during this time period and then persist through about 12z. Areal coverage of the precipitation will decrease over the area as bulk of the steadier precipitation gradually shifts east of the region. There will be improvement to the visibilities...climbing into MVFR and VFR categories...but ceilings will generally remain in the IFR category. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period with turbulence expected aloft. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 332 PM EDT Thursday...A Flood Watch goes in effect at 6 PM and continues until Noon on Sunday for the entire North Country. We continue to expect a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event heading into the weekend, especially northern NY into most of VT, with sharp rises anticipated on many rivers and streams. Several main stem rivers are expected to reach minor flood stage with the potential for moderate flood stage for some of the northern rivers with higher snow melt. In addition, embedded higher rainfall rates could produce an isolated flash flood threat during this time period, especially across complex terrain of the Adirondacks into mountains of VT. Specific river rises will be dependent on exactly where the heavy rainfall occurs so please follow the latest rainfall and river forecasts for flooding. Main stem rivers most at risk for flooding include the Passumpsic, the Wells, the Missisquoi, the Lamoille, the Winooski, the Ausable, and the Saranac Rivers. Sharp river rises will begin tonight, with most rivers expected to crest on Saturday. Additionally, Lake Champlain continues to slowly rise with current levels over 99 feet. With the additional rainfall and snow melt this weekend, the Lake Champlain level will likely approach or exceed 100 feet this weekend or early next week. Those with interests in low-lying or flood prone areas should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Evenson/Haynes HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1044 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will move through the region later this evening and overnight. Unsettled weather will hang around through the weekend as the associated upper air disturbance crawls eastward. Much of the time from later Sunday into mid week will be dry, but no long term dry spells are seen at this point. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Last counties removed from SVR Watch #92. As SVR/TOR threat winds down, still some hydro concerns as line of locally training convection in rich PW environment lifts up the Lower and Middle Susq River Valleys through the early morning hours. PW in excess of 1.5" surging north on the nose of a southerly 35-60kt LLJ ahead of negative tilted upper trough and strong upper diffluence/large scale uvvel. Selective areas of higher CAPE support scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour. The window of heaviest rain will be closing by around midnight with the HRRR taking the deepest convection east of the CWA. Scattered showers will continue into Saturday however. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry slot should bring a decrease in shower activity east of the Alleghenies to start the weekend. Despite some clouds, high temps should manage to peak around 70 degrees from the central mountains into the Susquehanna Valley. Cooler temps and most likely area of showers should be across western PA. Saturday looks like the better day for the upcoming holiday weekend. Falling heights and gradually cooling temps aloft associated with slow moving upper level low will spread shower risk to the east across most of central PA on Easter Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will trend cooler but max climo departures are only about 5 degrees from mid April averages. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect improving conditions/dry wx early next week as high pressure moves into the area behind departing upper level low. Look for a nice rebound in temperatures with highs in the 65 to 75 degree range on Tuesday. 80F not out of the question in the Lower Susquehanna Valley Tuesday afternoon. There is decent model agreement in the next frontal system moving into or through the area around midweek. Beyond Wednesday, guidance shows a large divergence in the evolution of the boundary and overall precipitation pattern. Trends seem to lean toward wet vs. dry into the second half of next week but confidence is low. Temperatures are likely to cool off from Tuesday`s highs before trending warmer into next weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to overspread the flying area into the evening hours. Localized downpours are expected, and a few of the thunderstorms could produce strong winds. Expect widespread flight restrictions into tonight. Unsettled, showery weather will persist into Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. .Outlook... Sat...Widespread restrictions in the morning with some improvement despite continued chc of showers. Sun...Scattered showers and areas of sub-VFR. Mon-Wed...Mainly VFR with scattered showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Flash flood watch expanded westward earlier today coincident with shift/trend in the hires models and HREF mean QPF. River (small stream) flooding threat remains largely predicated on exactly where (location) the heavy rain falls. That said, still expecting widespread 1-2 inches across most of central PA. Hydro models still show minor flooding on the Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern and Middletown. The lower mainstem Susq. small streams/tribs remain very vulnerable to quick rises and most susceptible/likely to experience short duration flooding. Smaller, quick responding streams in the Juniata and WB Susq. should also be monitored for potential flooding. Several-foot rises are fcst on larger rivers with fcst crests above caution/action levels at Harrisburg and Williamsport later Saturday into Sunday. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ012-018-019- 026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1039 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Expect showers to form this evening along a frontal boundary. Rain will be heaviest over the mountains of New Hampshire and western Maine. Coastal areas will still see some rain, but not as much as further north. Expect there to be some areas of fog as well. A cold front moving through on Sunday will bring drier conditions. Unsettled weather will remain in place across northern New England into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM Update...A few minor adjustments to temperatures and PoPs for the next few hours based on latest obs and radar imagery. 70 Degrees at the Portland Jetport as of the 10 PM observation...impressive and a long time coming! Even hearing "peepers" outside of the office here a for the first time this year. The stationary front continues to waver around near the Canadian border with some far northern towns in the forecast area in the 40s. Otherwise, south of the boundary we continue warm overnight with even some slightly muggy conditions in places. No major changes to the forecast at this time. 630 PM Update...Have updated the forecast mainly for minor adjustments to temperatures and PoPs based on latest observational data and latest mesoscale model output. Timed the PoPs close to the HRRR for the next 6-12 hours or so. Have added a slight chance of thunder to all zones for later this evening and overnight. Nose of 70 kt LLJ will impinge on the forecast area later this evening bringing plenty of forcing for ascent to support high PoPs for rain. In addition, added moisture and slightly steeper mid level lapse rates will support a couple of embedded thunderstorms. Warm front continues quasi-stationary across central Somerset County ME...with readings in the 30s and 40s there. South of the front will be remain quite warm with lows in the 50s and 60s. Previously... Southerly flow this afternoon has allowed temperatures to climb well above normal. This will likely have at least some impact on overnight low temperatures. Expect them to be a bit higher than guidance. The bigger story though, will be the rain. As low pressure begins to move north out of Virginia, showers will form along the stalled frontal boundary draped across the region. Initially, the showers will be confined to New Hampshire and the western mountains of Maine. As the low pressure center moves north of the Mason-Dixon line though, the precipitation will become more widespread. We should see showers across the entire region, but the QPF amounts will be highest over the aforementioned areas of NH and the Maine mountains. The warm and moist flow will likely generate some areas of fog tonight as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The low pressure system moves every so slowly into western PA and western NY states tomorrow, while the frontal boundary remains stalled over our area. The primary area of QPF tomorrow will shift further east, over the coastal plain. The warm temperatures of today, coupled with continued warmth overnight tonight and tomorrow, will generate some flooding issues. Please see the hydro section for more on that. Continued warm and moist conditions will keep fog in the forecast for the overnight periods. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The bulk of the precipitation will shift to far eastern portions of the forecast area on Sunday. A band of showers will likely continue, extending poleward from well of the Mid Atlantic coast to the Mid and Downeast coast of Maine. We will continue to remain in the warm sector with temperatures topping out in the 60s during the day. Rainfree conditions are expected Sunday night into early Monday morning as the precipitation continues to shift east and into the Canadian Maritimes. However, 12Z model runs are in relatively good agreement swinging the upper level support into northern New England during the day Monday through Tuesday morning. An active weather pattern will continue as more upper level support dives southeastward and into the forecast area on Wednesday. This will trigger cyclogenesis during the middle part of the work week. This system will also be followed by cooler air entering the region from Canada. There will potentially be a changeover to snow in the northern mountains with this feature as noted by the latest Canadian and European model runs. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...VFR conditions this afternoon will quickly deteriorate tonight to IFR/LIFR conditions as fog sets up and rain moves in. Expect the IFR conditions to continue through tomorrow and tomorrow night. Long Term...Most sites gradually improve to VFR conditions on Sunday with areas of IFR conditions along the coast during the morning. MVFR conditions Monday in lowered ceilings and precipitation which will continue at times Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday Night/...Southerly flow will keep SCA conditions in the forecast through at least tomorrow. Seas will be slow to come down, and the SCA that is currently in effect will likely need to be extended into tomorrow night. Long Term... Persistent S-SE flow will keep seas in the 7-11 feet range through Sunday, mainly in the open waters. SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night. && .HYDROLOGY... The question is where will the axis heavy rain will be located. A front will sink south into Maine and bisect the area from east to west Saturday. The exact location of this front will have a big impact on precipitation amounts and temperatures. Currently we are looking at a 1 to 2 inch rainfall. This will certainly be enough to bring many rivers to minor flood stage when combined with snowmelt. Moderate flooding is possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides this weekend will combine with a prolonged onshore southerly flow to potentially lead to minor beach erosion and splashover. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Any impact would occur tonight and Saturday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028. NH...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday afternoon for NHZ001>009-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Pohl LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION...Cannon/Pohl MARINE...Cannon/Pohl
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
920 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Some showers will move across the area into this evening before one last round of widespread rainfall arrives tonight and persists into Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday afternoon will range from less than one quarter of an inch across far northwest Indiana and extreme southwest Lower Michigan to around an inch along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor. Otherwise, cool and windy conditions are expected today with high temperatures only reaching the mid and upper 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue into Saturday before high temperatures warm back into the 60s and lower 70s for Sunday under mostly sunny skies. && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Latest satellite, radar, and surface obs show an aggressive push of dry air in our NW zones with little/no precip in all but our far eastern zones. Latest model guidance (notably the hi-res/rapid refresh models) also trending slower and further SE with upper low and associated deformation band track. Have therefore made some substantial cuts to PoPs/QPF in our northwest zones and adjusted the timing a bit for all areas. Further adjustments may be necessary as some guidance (mainly RAP and HRRR) suggest precip will not push much further north than US-24. There will also be an incredibly sharp cutoff between moderate rain in the deformation zone and no precip/sunny skies just to the northwest. Did not go too aggressive with new PoP and Sky grids given some lingering uncertainty in exact location of deformation but could easily see further trimming necessary if trends in hi-res guidance continue. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Extensive cloud cover has kept temps in the mid 40s across the area with a stiff NE wind now taking shape as stout upper level low pressure dropping into Mississippi will eventually come back northeast tonight into Saturday to bring one more round of rain to the area. Deformation zone will quickly setup and pivot NW to impact at least the SE half of the area, but will take till after closer to the 9Z Sat window given how far south the upper low currently is with precip lingering into 15 to 18Z. Models still varying on exactly how far NW it comes with a tight cutoff expected closer to Lake Michigan where not a drop of rain may fall. Rainfall amounts of one half to 1 inch look on track SE half and quickly tapering from there. Lows will drop into the upper 30s, but precip should stay all rain (although can`t entirely rule out a bit of snow mixing in). Rain will move out Saturday afternoon with skies clearing somewhat in far W/NW areas where highs may climb into the 50s vs another raw day in the 40s where the clouds and rain linger. Flooding concerns have diminished given that the expected QPF overnight didn`t fully pan out with mainly rises into action stage on several rivers and continuation of standing water in fields. HWO will be toned down somewhat. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Models generally in agreement on closed upper low near the KY/WV border at the start of the period, slowly filling as it works East to the East coast by 12Z Mon. This will allow the end of rain for a few days as 574 dm ridge axis shifts over the region at the same time. Clearing skies Sunday will allow for warmer low level temps to be mixed down, with highs in the 60s. Clouds will increase Monday in advance of a the first of 2 systems, the first a weak northern stream disturbance moving out of the Plains. Models agree to some extent with minor differences in timing and strength, but all warranting chc pops for some showers/isol storms. Next system remains more problematic with models refusing to agree on handling of southern stream trough and potential phasing with a northern stream wave. Agree with previous forecaster that best course for the time being will be to maintain a dry forecast with seasonable temps in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 For KFWA...fuel alternate ceilings likely to persist for bulk of the period as upper low slowly lifts NE. Latest guidance trends have been a little slower and further SE with deformation band slated to push into our area late tonight/Sat. Therefore have lower confidence in IFR/heavier rain impacting KFWA but will leave a TEMPO mention. Otherwise...expect showers to persist through much of Sat with ceilings holding in low MVFR category. Drier air currently working into KSBN and expect VFR stratus to slowly scatter through this evening. There is a low chance for some brief MVFR stratus to return late tonight as moisture/ deformation band try to push NW but will hold with VFR for now given latest guidance trends noted above. Skies will be entirely clear during the day Saturday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...AGD SYNOPSIS...Fisher SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...AGD Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1059 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 Band of showers and storms continues to pivot northward across northeast and far eastern Kentucky. This activity will shift off to the north over the next hour or two, leaving behind generally dry weather for much of the remainder of the night. Updated grids to reflect latest trends. UPDATE Issued at 920 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 Band of heavier showers has been pivoting northeast across east Kentucky over the past few hours as the center of the low pressure system is shifting overhead. A pronounced dry slot is moving northward behind this band of precipitation and will likely bring a lull for eastern Kentucky through the second half of the night after this current band of precipitation pivots northward and out of the area by midnight. Wrap around moisture will begin to move back into our southwestern zones by dawn. Updated the pops and weather to reflect these trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 421 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 The afternoon surface analysis shows frontal boundary slowly moving into eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This boundary has pushed east on a line from Lewis County back to Clinton County based on Kentucky Mesonet observations. The surface low is now centered in the heart of Eastern Tennessee this afternoon, and this feature will be a player for eastern Kentucky late this afternoon and evening. This feature will slowly pull north and east, as a upper level low digs and slowly progresses north and east through the period. We have been able see some clearing across our far south and this is leading to MUCAPE values in the 250 to 500 J/kg range this afternoon. Even though we are seeing the better clearing the winds are backing to the southeast and this is leading to a downward trend in dewpoints/moisture. This will yield drier conditions and this would also cut into the overall severe threat. The guidance and even the recent SPC mesoanalysis data suggests we will have ample effective shear of 30 to 40 knots and increasing to 50 to 60 knots over the next 4 to 6 hours. This could prove to be too much shear for the amount of CAPE generated in this environment. However, the surface low leading to more rapid pressure fails and upper level forcing for ascent could make up some for the deficiency in the instability. This leads to an isolated and more conditional risk for strong to even severe storms late this afternoon and evening. Overall the main risks would be gusty winds, but hail could be a factor given the lower freezing levels. However, the low topped nature and high shear could leave you with less resonance time for hail growth. The CAMs do show some storm cells developing this evening, with the HRRR showing activity underneath the deepening surface low by 19/23Z to 20/04Z timeframe. There are also isolated updraft helicity swaths showing up suggesting more organized storms could develop. This will be closely monitored through the evening where additional updates can be made. This low will track right across eastern Kentucky, with a TROWAL/deformation zone setting up further west into central Kentucky. A previously mentioned boundary will lead to lowering temperatures and this will lead to more cold rain showers through the night into Saturday. The lower freezing levels based on the model soundings suggest some locations in the highest terrain could see temperatures lowering around freezing by Saturday morning. This will lead to mixing or changing to snow in some cases mainly along the higher terrain near the Virginia and Tennessee borders. The clouds and cold air advection should lead to a cold day for even spring standards across the eastern Kentucky Saturday. There will also be lingering showers, as the upper level low and surface low track nearby the area. The rain showers will linger into Sunday night mainly in the far east, and clouds will also be slower to clear given the upper level low just to our east. This will lead to fairly uniform temperatures Sunday night under weak winds and cloud skies. The low temperatures will bottom out into the upper 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 510 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 The last of any remaining precip from Saturday`s system will be exiting to the east on Sunday morning as the associated upper low weakens and moves further northeast of our area. Surface high pressure is then expected to remain nearby from Sunday afternoon into early Tuesday, as ridging aloft passes over. This will result in mainly clear skies. Light winds and good radiating conditions will allow for chilly temperatures by Monday morning. Some patchy frost can`t be ruled out in our coldest valleys, but will hold off on its mention at this point. Outside of this, the building geopotential heights and abundant sunshine will bring a warming trend through Tuesday. After this, a negatively tilted upper trough will move east and work to flatten the aforementioned ridge. A weak cold front will accompany the upper trough. Moisture will advect over the area in advance of the front and lead to our next prospect of rain coming in from the northwest late Tuesday. Models have not honed in on common solution to handle this system going into the later portion of the week. The ECMWF wants to close off an upper low at the tail of the aforementioned upper trough and tracks it slowly across the southeast CONUS late in the week. Meanwhile, the GFS maintains an open wave which moves more quickly eastward. The GFS ensemble mean shows support for the GFS operational run, and ECMWF trended faster with the upper low. In light of this, it supports leaning toward the GFS, with lower POPs on Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 IFR ceilings will be seen west of a line from KSYM to KLOZ overnight with MVFR ceilings or higher to the west as an area of low pressure moves nearly directly overhead of east Kentucky overnight. As wrap around moisture moves back over the area on Saturday, a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected through the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
525 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected thru the TAF period. However there are some TSRA over the area that could locally impact the TAF sites for the next few hours mainly ALW, BDN, RDM. Reduced cigs psbl if TSRA impacts an individual arpt. SHRA will continue overnight and decrease durg the mrng and cdfnt moves thru from w to e. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2019/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...WSR-88D is showing increasing returns with showers developing over the southern Blue Mountains northeast to Wallowa County. Few cloud-to-ground strikes detected in southern Wheeler County near Mitchell. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are developing ahead of a cold front currently moving across central WA and northwest OR. The HRRR has been consistent with most thunderstorm activity in Union and Wallowa Counties this evening. MLCAPES around 600-900 J/kg and 35-40 knots of bulk shear could mean strong thunderstorms capable of penny size hail and heavy rain. The front will gradually make its way across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. The upper level jet is parallel to the front, resulting in a slow-moving system. Keeping this in mind, QPF was increased over north central and northeast OR and far southeast WA tonight. 0.25-0.5 inch of rain is possible over the Blues and Wallowas overnight and up to 0.25 inch of rain elsewhere. Previous models indicated the upper level trough moving into Idaho Saturday with drier air from the north-northwest, but the timing is slower. Therefore, numerous showers will continue Saturday morning throughout central and northeast Oregon then tapering off to scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. After midnight on Sunday morning, the only showers left will be over the Wallowa Mountains. It will be a perfect day for outdoor activities and Easter egg hunting on Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s...near 70 in the Lower Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys. Wister LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday. Monday and Tuesday, there will be a ridge of high pressure with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal and mainly dry conditions. The ridge is expected to flatten slightly on Wednesday with some moisture pushing into the Blue Mountains and models indicate some instability, so have kept a slight chance of thunder for this area as well. A trough of low pressure will be nearing the coast on Thursday with some moisture and instability ahead of it. Currently, models keep this a little further south of the forecast area so I have not mentioned thunder at this time. A large trough of low pressure remains over the area on Friday into Saturday with a mainly dry west to northwest flow. This will also usher in some cooler air with temperatures cooler to near normal levels. 93 AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Showers will spread across the area this afternoon and tonight. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over central Oregon and the eastern Oregon mountains. Have opted to leave mention out of forecast for BDN/RDM as coverage of storms may be just to east of this area. Cigs will be 035-080 with MVFR cigs possible in heaviest showers. Showers will continue overnight decreasing from the northwest by early morning. West to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts this afternoon from 20Z-03Z. 93 HYDROLOGY...Flood Warnings continue for the Grande Ronde river at Troy and John Day river at Service Creek as warm temperatures and some heavy rain will increase runoff over the next few days. 93 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 48 60 40 65 / 60 60 10 0 ALW 50 61 43 67 / 50 50 10 0 PSC 52 68 44 72 / 40 30 0 0 YKM 47 67 41 70 / 20 10 0 0 HRI 51 66 43 70 / 40 40 0 0 ELN 42 62 38 66 / 10 10 0 0 RDM 45 57 35 63 / 70 70 10 0 LGD 47 53 39 60 / 80 60 30 0 GCD 46 51 38 61 / 80 70 30 0 DLS 50 65 43 67 / 40 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 85/93/77