Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
954 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Strong gusty westerly winds will persist into this evening in wake of a cold front passage. Fair and cool conditions are expected for tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. It will still be breezy, but winds will not be as strong. An approaching warm front will bring some rain and snow to the region on Friday into Friday night, with best chances for snow across higher elevations. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ...Wind Advisory extended for all of eastern New York and western New England until 1 AM... As of 945 PM EDT...Mesoscale features show an increase in low level wind magnitudes with NY Mesonet showing winds at or above 50 mph with a few reports of trees down. So we will extend the advisory through the midnight hour. 00Z NAM and RAP reveal a jet core coming down the Mohawk as 00Z sounding shows a healthy mixing layer which are the culprits for the increase in wind gusts this evening. Otherwise, just a few clouds across the region with a little increase in mid level clouds across Lake Ontario and central NY. Temperatures look in good shape overall with minimal enhancements at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will feature dry conditions with abundant sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures, as high pressure builds eastward across the Great Lakes. With the center of the anticyclone still positioned to our west, and a very dry air mass in place, it will be another breezy day. However, winds will not be as strong as Wednesday due to forecast lower mixing heights around 850 mb and relatively weaker winds aloft. This should result in W-NW winds gusting to around 25-35 mph from late morning through early evening. Winds will finally subside Thursday night, as the surface high moves directly over our region. It will be cold night though, as mainly clear skies and light winds will lead to good radiational cooling conditions. Lows expected to be in the teens and 20s. High pressure will quickly shift eastward into New England Friday morning, and off the coast by Friday afternoon. As a weak area of low pressure lifts northward into the central Great Lakes region, its associated warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. Isentropic lift ahead of the warm front will result in precipitation developing from SW to NE across our region during the day Friday. There are some timing differences among various sources of model guidance, but the there is consensus that the precip will hold off until after 12Z, and more likely until 15Z or 18Z from Albany north and east. Due to the timing of precip arriving during the daylight hours, we are expecting mainly rain in valleys and possible snow/sleet in the higher terrain. There is a low probability for some freezing rain, but it is not climatologically favored this time of year during the late morning/afternoon hours. Low-level thermal profiles do look cold enough for snow/sleet mix in the higher terrain, but accumulations should generally be confined to mountain areas above 1500 ft. Any rain/snow should change to plain rain late Friday into Friday night as the warm front is expected to lift just north of the region. It will be a cold rain with temps mainly in the mid 30 to lower 40s. Precipitation shadowing will likely occur with the S-SW flow aloft, so areas from Albany west through the Schoharie Valley and northern mid Hudson Valley will see the least amounts (around a quarter inch), with another minimum area across the central Adirondacks. Typical locations such as the southern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Saratoga region and western New England will see higher amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch. At this time total snow accumulations of a dusting to an inch or two will be possible across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended forecast period will begin with a brief period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a potentially prolonged period of wet weather. Saturday and Sunday...Mid-level height rises and broad/weak subsidence will overspread the region Saturday and continue through most of Sunday. There could be some lingering rain showers over western New England on early Saturday, and there could be some clouds/sprinkles approaching the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley on late Sunday, but elsewhere the surface high pressure will keep conditions dry with seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s over the higher terrain and in the 50s and low 60s over valley regions. Lows will generally be in the 30s. Monday through Wednesday...The pattern will quickly change as a deep upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS. There is considerable uncertainty with respect to the synoptic flow pattern amplitude and progression as we head through the first half of the week, so this will be a low confidence forecast. The 12Z GFS suggests a digging trough transitioning to a cut-off low over the Great Lakes region. The resultant surface features include a quasi-stationary boundary situated over the region, with coastal low redevelopment on the back end of the system. The deterministic run of the 12Z GFS resolves higher amounts of QPF then any of the GEFS members, so it is considered somewhat of an outlier as of now, but multiple runs have shown quite a bit of QPF. This solution would drop multiple inches of liquid precipitation over the region with the possibility of multiple precipitation types. The 12Z ECMWF suggests a less amplified, more progressive pattern with a warm front lifting through the region followed by a rapidly translating cold front. This would be a much drier solution. Just about all guidance points toward the potential for periods of wet weather Monday through Wednesday, with normal to slightly below normal temperatures. The details will have to be worked out as we get closer to early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... While VFR conditions will prevail, gusty westerly winds will persist through the TAF forecast cycle. Occasional gusts 20-30kts are expected through most of the evening hours with a minimal decrease overnight. Those magnitudes increase once again with daylight Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph and RH values of 20 to 30 percent will persist into early this evening... Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph and minimum RH values of 15 to 25 percent are expected on Thursday... Strong gusty westerly winds will persist into this evening in wake of a cold front passage. Fair and cool conditions are expected for tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. It will still be breezy, but winds will not be as strong. An approaching warm front will bring some rain and snow to the region on Friday into Friday night, with best chances for snow across higher elevations. Westerly winds tonight will decrease to 10 to 20 mph, then increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will become northwest Thursday night and decrease to less than 10 mph. RH values will only recover to around 50-75 percent tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 15 to 25 percent Thursday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Other than some isolated to widely scattered sprinkles or flurries into early this evening, dry weather is expected through Thursday night. Although daytime temperatures will be a little milder than recent days, overnight lows still looks to below freezing for much of the area for the next few nights. This should allow for a diurnal melting pattern of the snowpack that continues to be in place over the high terrain. The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Friday into Friday night, with some rain and high elevation snow from an approaching frontal boundary. Some rises are possible on rivers/stream, but it still appears runoff looks limited enough to keep rivers and streams well within their banks. Also, the precipitation may fall as at least some snow over the mountains. Dry weather should then return for the weekend, but additional precipitation is expected by early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013. Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025. Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions will occur Thursday as high pressure crosses the area. Another cold front will approach the area with rain expected Thursday night into Friday. Active but warm weather is expected late in the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows cirrus clouds crossing the region with temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight dry high pressure will remain over the region with light and variable winds. With high clouds to continue crossing the region overnight radiational cooling conditions will be less than optimal with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s at most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak shortwave ridging will develop over the forecast area Thursday ahead of an approaching upper trough over the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will shift farther offshore allowing for a warm, moist southeasterly surface flow to develop. Precipitable water values will rise from below 0.5 inches to almost an inch by 00z Friday. Rainfall will hold off through the day remaining to our west before overspreading the area during the overnight hours Thursday night. The upper trough will move east into the area late Thursday night and cross the region Friday bringing widespread rain to the forecast area. The greatest moisture flux into the region will coincide with a precipitable water value max just under 1.5 inches early Friday morning. Will maintain high likely to categorical pops in the forecast late Thursday night into Friday. Chances of rain decrease through the day as the upper trough shifts east and the forecast area is within the subsidence behind the departing system. A weak cold front will push through the region and eventually stall to our south late Friday night. Rainfall amounts expected to be generally around a half inch but some locations could see amounts up to an inch. Temperatures during this period will be mild with highs in the 70s Thursday followed by lows in the 50s Thursday night. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday with clouds and rain early ranging from the upper 60s northern and western Midlands to lower 70s southeast Midlands and CSRA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A building upper ridge will shift over the forecast area over the weekend in response to a deep upper trough over the western part of the country. Despite reasonable atmospheric moisture with precipitable water values around an inch Saturday the subsidence from the upper ridging and lack of upper forcing should prevent much in the way of precipitation. However, with plenty of sunshine and developing instability cannot rule out isolated or scattered showers possible in the CSRA. As the upper system to our west pushes into the MS/TN valleys Sunday and Sunday night there will be greater chances for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area as deep southerly flow promotes moisture transport into the region off the Gulf of Mexico and precipitable water values rise to around 1.5 inches. The atmosphere will become moderately unstable as well with forecast LI values -6 to -8 C. Medium-range models continue to differ on timing of the passage of the upper trough through the forecast area with the EC being more progressive and ending precipitation by Monday night while the GFS has a more positively tilted trough that is slower to push through lingering into Tuesday. Will keep pops similar to what was inherited given the uncertainty and add a dry day 7 Wednesday with generally zonal 500 mb flow and a drier atmosphere in place. Temperatures during this period will be above normal through this period with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Dry high pressure in the region will move farther off the coast Thursday. An increase in low-level moisture will occur in an onshore flow. Expect mainly VFR conditions tonight because of the initial dryness. The GFS and NAM MOS, SREF, HRRR plus crossover temperature indicate VFR conditions. We forecasted VFR conditions except did include a period of MVFR fog at AGS and OGB because of the added moisture in the river valleys combined with light wind. The moisture increase and diurnal heating should result in stratocumulus Thursday afternoon. Model forecast soundings suggest a VFR level and scattered coverage. The MAV and MET MOS have wind light tonight and southeast around 10 knots Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions are expected late Thursday night through Monday associated with a frontal system in the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 ...Please see latest 0Z aviation discussion... && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 312 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Main focus is centered on the ongoing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast Wyoming that will then spread into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Thunderstorms will contain brief heavy downpours and wind gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph. Thunderstorms and overall shower coverage will decrease through the evening hours as they shift east. A weak shortwave trough axis is passing over the central Rockies this afternoon per RAP analysis and water vapor imagery. The resultant weak synoptic lift plus weak instability of 500 J/Kg MUCAPE is supporting isolated thunderstorms along the I-80 corridor east of Cheyenne moving towards Kimball and Sidney, Nebraska. Instability is more limited north of this corridor and reduce thunder wording in weather grids there. Other than a brief heavy downpour and winds gusts of 30-40 mph, the thunderstorms are not expected to be strong. Thunderstorms will weaken as greater stabilization occurs during the evening hours and as the shortwave trough shift east. Given the saturated grounds across the NE Panhandle and with the rain from this afternoon plus cool east upslope flow overnight, fog and low clouds appear likely. Fog and low cloud development is hinted at in the HRRR and NAM guidance across the Panhandle for Thursday morning. The fog will dissipate by late morning to a warmer and sunnier afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Clouds and precipitation will clear to the east early Thursday as high pressure settles in. Temperatures will be on the rise quickly Thursday and Friday with highs in the 60s for the plains. A few showers and partly cloudy skies are expected Friday with the passage of s shortwave trough. Precip chances will remain scattered to isolated with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Saturday as some residual cloud and showers sticks around. Temps however will remain above average and pleasant. Sunday and early next week look to remain above average in the temperature department as high pressure and northwest flow develop. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected until mid-week next week as the next storm system arrives. Beyond day 6 models loose grip on the general pattern but a wet and active is generally expected with potential for snow and rain mid week next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 An area of showers and weak thunderstorms associated with a shortwave are continuing to impact southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. This is contributing to ceilings down to MVFR. Visibility is mostly unaffected due to the lack of strength in these showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, however, areas in the Nebraska Panhandle including KCDR and KAIA will likely see fog. Visibility may get down to IFR or lower. Towards the end of the period, fog will dissipate and clouds will begin to move out. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Fire weather concerns remain low as saturated soils and fuels continue. Warming and drying conditions will occur late week and partially into the weekend ahead of another weather system mid- next week. Winds will be on the increase over the weekend from the west at 20 to 30 mph and minimum relative humidity falls near 30 percent. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Potential for isolated flooding remains across the Nebraska panhandle as showers continue tonight and through Thursday evening. The good news is that this system has limited QPF with only 2 to 3 tenths expected for maximum precip. The bad news is that soils remain saturated and runoff will likely cause streams to swell. No change to the existing flood products is expected at this time but conditions will be evaluated as needed. .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...CW SHORT TERM...JSA LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...CW FIRE WEATHER...JSA HYDROLOGY...AL/JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Vigorous shortwave evident on infrared satellite imagery near the Four Corners as of midday, preceded by a widespread canopy of cirrus over Kansas. Once again today, cirrus will likely temper temperatures down a few degrees from forecasted values, serving to limit already modest CAPE/bouyancy values. Indeed, 12z NAM shows both most unstable and surface based CAPE struggling to get over 500 J/kg through this evening, even along the southern Oklahoma border. Moisture return ahead of this otherwise energetic shortwave is meager, with dewpoints only expected to rise into the 40s across the southern counties prior to convective initiation this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50-52 range in NW Texas as of midday will advect northward across the eastern TX panhandle this afternoon, where better forcing and modestly better CAPE will assist some supercell development. Any supercell structures are expected to remain confined to the eastern TX panhandle and western OK, with messier modes in SW KS. Latest HRRR iterations show convection initiation near Elkhart-Liberal by 5 pm which seems reasonable. Showers and thunderstorms will subsequently move eastward across the southern counties this evening (primarily south of US 50). Some storms may produce marginally severe wind/hail, per 5% wind/hail probabilities from SPC. Measurable rain is most likely SE of Dodge City this evening nearest the strongest forcing, with many other areas likely missing out. After midnight, associated weak cold front will arrive with a gentle northerly wind shift. Short term models agree that widespread postfrontal stratus will develop after midnight through Thursday morning, as the boundary layer saturates. Some areas of fog are also possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall tonight. Temperatures tonight holding in the 40s at most locations. Thursday...Shortwave exits early, followed by strong subsidence and a clearing sky. There will be no cold air advection behind this southern stream system. In fact, models show several degrees of warming at 850 mb compared to Wednesday. With full sunshine tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will warm easily through the 60s to near 70, despite light northerly winds. A beautiful spring afternoon...get outside and enjoy! .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Friday...Much warmer but also much windier. Strong warming expected in the afternoon, in response to developing SW flow aloft, and 850 mb temperatures warming to 18+ C. Expect 70s for all zones, with warmest locales cracking 80. South winds will respond to the next lee trough, gusting 30-40 mph. Models are now much weaker with the next southern stream shortwave expected to eject out onto the plains over the weekend. 12z ECMWF actually splits the energy into two pieces, one over Kansas Saturday, while the other shortwave digs into northern Mexico on Saturday. Mentioned mainly chance category rain showers and isolated embedded thunder during the Saturday time frame. Rainfall and impacts will be limited, with little if any threat of severe weather. Second piece of energy evolves into a closed low in Texas on Sunday. GFS has much stronger NW winds on Sunday behind this departing system, with ECMWF not nearly as much. Quiet and dry, beautiful spring weather is expected early next week. Dry NW flow Monday becoming zonal Tuesday, accompanied by strong warming. 12z ECMWF bias correction is warmer than the model blend on Tuesday, approaching 80 degrees. The last several runs of ECMWF have shown consistency showing a strong cyclone impacting Kansas during the Wednesday April 10th timeframe. Of course, details will change many times with this cyclone over the coming 7 days. At any rate, ECMWF currently shows an intense cyclone with rain changing to snow, intense winds, and a very strong cold surge into April 11th. No freezes are expected through April 10th, but a very hard freeze may occur Friday morning April 12th. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 VFR will start out in the TAF pd. Eventually, IFR/LIFR stratus and some patchy fog will develop by morning. Thunderstorms are still possible this evening. The highest chance right now stands at KLBL. Storms may not make it far enough north to KGCK and KDDC. Will monitor short term radar trends. Otherwise, winds will eventually shift SE/S to N later in the TAF pd. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 69 47 75 / 50 0 0 0 GCK 43 68 45 75 / 20 0 0 0 EHA 39 69 46 78 / 30 0 0 0 LBL 42 69 48 77 / 50 0 0 0 HYS 46 65 46 73 / 50 0 0 0 P28 50 69 47 75 / 50 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
923 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Overall, very quiet conditions will continue across the Northland as high pressure, currently situated over the Red River Valley over eastern North Dakota, builds into the region this evening and overnight, leading to enhanced radiational cooling due to clear skies and light winds. We did decrease the overnight lows tonight by a degree or two in some spots, but otherwise, the forecast for cold temperatures tonight is still on track. The coldest readings should be over the Minnesota Arrowhead, where lows will fall into the single digits and lower teens above zero, with middle teens to lower 20s elsewhere. The high will shift eastward Thursday morning, which will help to bring southerly return flow and warm air advection into the region. RAP and NAM model soundings show a deep layer of dry air in the low- levels, so no precipitation should result from this warm air advection through the early afternoon. However, the soundings do show some top-down saturation of the column as additional moisture advects into the region, so PoPs will increase from the south in the late afternoon and into Thursday evening. Initially, the precipitation type will mainly be rain, although some snow could mix in along the North Shore where it is colder. A wintry mix will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 The pattern will turn more active for the long term with multiple systems expected to move through. Temperatures will continue to warm above normal for the weekend before cooling below normal for the new week. A weak shortwave will move through the Northland Thursday night into Friday morning. A warm front will lift through the region with the associated warm air advection leading to isentropic lift and a chance of wintry precipitation for Thursday night. Precipitation will be more snow around Lake Superior with rain or a rain/snow mix away from the lake to start the evening. Snow will expand during the evening as temperatures cool, but as warmer air moves in for the early morning hours, a change over to rain will occur from southwest to northeast. Some areas of freezing rain will be possible in the transition zone with a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible across mainly northwest Wisconsin, especially Price County and adjacent areas of Ashland, Iron, and Sawyer Counties. Any lingering mix or snow will change over to rain after sunrise Friday before tapering off by late morning. Snowfall amounts of around a dusting to around an inch will be possible, especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Another weak wave will move through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning and bring a light round of precipitation. It may start as a light wintry mix early Saturday morning, but is expected to quickly change to rain. Confidence decreases beyond this point due to poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency with several different scenarios being possible for the evolution of this system for the remainder of Saturday and into Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will be possible through much of this period, but the exact timing and intensity remains in question. However, models continue to indicate some MUCAPE for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg across the southern reaches of the forecast area which could lead to a few thunderstorms south of a Cass Lake to Moose Lake to Winter, WI, line. While the EURO and GEM are more progressive with this system, moving the bulk of it to our east by Monday, the GFS is much slower and meanders the low around Wisconsin and Michigan into Tuesday night before quickly moving into the Northeast. This scenario seems unlikely at this point, but have kept some showers in place for Monday into Tuesday as we remain under an inverted trough per the EURO/GEM for much of Monday and then slight chances for rain Tuesday from the GFS. While this activity Monday and Tuesday will be mainly rain, a rain/snow mix or all snow will be possible during the overnight hours, but it looks light. Temperatures will run above normal in the 50s for Friday and the weekend, although winds off the lake Saturday will keep areas along the lakeshore in the 40s. A few 60s will also be possible in our far southern areas on Saturday as well. Temperatures will then cool to near to below normal for Monday and Tuesday as the storm system moves out. This will result in readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 VFR with high pressure overhead. By Thursday mid morning, clouds will be on the increase from the south, above 5K ft. Gusty surface winds will also return by mid morning Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 High pressure departs Thursday morning, winds will veer northeasterly at 10 to 20 knots over the southwest arm of Lake Superior. An easterly wind at 5 to 10 knots is forecast elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 18 38 30 50 / 0 30 40 20 INL 12 44 33 47 / 0 20 50 30 BRD 23 46 35 56 / 0 20 30 10 HYR 19 46 33 53 / 0 30 40 20 ASX 21 43 33 52 / 0 20 50 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...BJH AVIATION...GSF MARINE...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
924 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .UPDATE... The inherited forecast remains in great shape with just a few cosmetic changes required. Regional radar imagery at this hour indicated that streamer showers continue to lift northward, though the 00 UTC FWD RAOB indicates very dry air below cloud base has precluded much in the way of measurable rainfall. Regional VWP indicates that 925mb flow has increased up to near 40 knots and this will continue to usher in deeper moisture and thus I expect more in the way of measurable rainfall associated with WAA after midnight. With the strong capping still evidenced on area RAOBs, I believe most of this activity will remain in the form of showers. Upstream, radar depicts a cluster of storms ongoing across western Oklahoma. With 850-700mb flow on the increase, a conveyor of higher theta-e air should be transported northward. This may foster some slight back-building of convective cells associated with any storm complex to the north just prior to 12 UTC and the latest HRRR and NAM NEST solutions suggest that this is quite plausible. With this in mind, I`ve nudged PoPs upward into the likely category (60%) near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. MUCAPE values will near 1000 J/kg and with deep layer shear increasing ahead of the lead shortwave trough, there will be some organization to convective elements and thus a strong to near severe storm cannot be ruled out capable of hail near the size of quarters. Outside of adjusting PoPs/Wx grids, the rest of the forecast remains in solid shape. Bain && .AVIATION... /Issued 714 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ /00 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling trends at all TAFs and thunder potential at Metroplex. Low level moisture has been slow to slosh eastward towards the I-35/I-35W corridors and this has resulted in VFR for most of the day today. This will change over the next 2-4 hours as winds just above the surface start to slowly veer. In response, cigs should fall into the MVFR category at ACT...FTW and AFW with MVFR expected at all sites by 0400 UTC. Lift will continue to increase and some spotty SHRA will be possible, with the best potential in the near term at ACT. Near and just after midnight, IFR cigs are anticipated as low level moisture deepens across Central Texas (at ACT). Farther north, the potential for a prolonged period of IFR seems a little less likely given the nocturnal mixing and elevated cloud bases and a TEMPO group to address this seems more appropriate for the Metroplex. During the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, our attention will turn towards a loose convective complex now taking shape across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma. With low level flow increasing in magnitude, there seems to be a good potential for the development of SHRA/TSRA south of the Red River. Impacts to both the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts and to northbound departures appears most certain during the morning push and the latest guidance does indicate that convective cells will build southward into D10 airspace. Given the strong low level flow and building instability aloft, felt it prudent to include a few hours of VCTS at Metroplex TAFs from 1000-1400 UTC. If the potential for thunder looks more likely in subsequent guidance and is supported by observational data, a TEMPO TS may be included in later TAF issuances---but confidence to do so now is too low. Otherwise, south winds of 15 to 18 knots are anticipated with gusts in the 20 to 22 knot range. During the late morning to early afternoon hours, VFR and westerly surface winds of 15 knots are expected. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ /Through Tomorrow/ A lee cyclone over the southern High Plains continues to organize this afternoon, ahead of a 90-kt jet streak crossing the southern Rockies. Ahead of this system, breezy south/southeasterly flow has transported a modest plume of moisture (beneath 850 mb) across North and Central Texas this afternoon. Some occasional breaks have been noted within this cloud shield, but the approach of the aforementioned system and re-invigoration of a low-level jet after 00Z will surge low clouds, patchy mist/fog, and a few showers northward overnight. Lowest clouds and greatest coverage of fog should exist over Central Texas, where RH values will be slightly higher within the return flow regime. Most convection across our area overnight should remain rather shallow, given a fairly stout capping inversion above 850 mb. However, near the terminus of the low-level jet (generally southern Oklahoma trailing southeast towards the Sabine Valley), focused isentropic ascent may weaken inhibition sufficiently for a few thunderstorms. Most of these storms will likely remain to our north/east overnight into tomorrow morning, but isolated storms could work into our Red River and/or East Texas counties. Any such cells are generally expected to be sub-severe, but one or two could deepen sufficiently for a hail threat, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable effective shear. Still, dry air associated with the EML will likely preclude parcels from utilizing the entirety of available buoyancy. As the shortwave trough crosses North Texas tomorrow morning, the low-level jet will veer and shift east, focusing aforementioned convection farther east towards the Mississippi Valley. While precipitation chances will reduce considerably across our area, the surface trough will take a few more hours to clear our eastern counties. Veered flow and drying aloft will likely prohibit most parcels from deepening sufficiently for thunderstorm activity through mid-day, but a couple could do so, owing to a narrow pre- trough reservoir of mid/upper 60s dew points. Hail would be the primary threat, although gusty winds would be possible as well. Behind the surface trough, a downslope breeze and clearing skies will boost temps in the 80s in many locations. While fire-weather conditions could become locally elevated, widespread concerns are not anticipated. See the fire-weather discussion for more details. Picca && .LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ /Thursday Night through Wednesday/ Thursday night will be a quiet night as the rain shifts east of the region and a weak front meanders in from the north. This front is expected to stall across our Central Texas counties and remain in that area through at least Friday morning. Some fog may occur early Friday morning within the vicinity of the front. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected north of the front Friday morning, but otherwise Friday will be a warm day as an upper level ridge slides across the Southern Plains ahead of a shortwave disturbance moving across northern Mexico. I have hedged on the warmer side of guidance with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to mid 80s in the west. The shortwave disturbance, and associated upper level trough, will move into southwest Texas Friday afternoon and night, spreading larger scale lift across the region. In response to the approaching system, the stalled front will have lifted north on Friday afternoon allowing dewpoints in the 60s to spread back across the region. Southerly winds through H850 will bring additional moisture into the region, and showers and storms will start to spread across the region from west to east Friday night. Forecast soundings indicate some elevated storms may be able to produce small hail overnight, and we will continue to assess this threat with better model guidance arriving in the next 48 hours. The rain will continue through the day on Saturday, likely affecting outdoor plans across much of North and Central Texas. Showers and storms will prevail through the morning hours, but may start to end from west to east during the afternoon hours. At this time, the upper level shortwave will be pulling north into Oklahoma, but another upper level trough will be quickly digging into southwest Texas on the heels of the first system. This secondary system may prolong rain chances across our western counties, but the influence of this secondary system is not quite fully understood yet. Additional rain will likely occur across part of the region on Sunday as the second upper level trough moves across the state and a front also moves across North and Central Texas...but confidence is low in where the better rain chances will be on Sunday. For now, will carry high PoPs everywhere on Saturday with a slow decrease across our western counties Saturday night. Then will linger PoPs across roughly the eastern half of the CWA on Sunday, but this area may need to be expanded once we get better confidence in the influence of the second system. Severe weather concerns do exist on Saturday, but are not quite clear cut yet. A severe weather risk may exist in the morning hours, but the potential for widespread rainfall may minimize any severe weather threat during the afternoon hours. In addition, the first shortwave will be moving north of the area in the afternoon, taking the best large scale lift with it. This may also work against any severe weather threat during the afternoon and evening hours. However, shear values are good for this time of year and CAPE values aren`t bad, including Sunday, and we will continue to monitor the severe weather potential over the weekend. For the remainder of next week, generally dry weather is expected with pleasant temperatures, but we may see afternoon highs approaching 90 degrees by next Wednesday. JLDunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 82 60 83 64 / 50 20 0 5 50 Waco 62 86 60 82 64 / 30 20 5 5 60 Paris 56 74 57 78 61 / 60 50 5 5 50 Denton 60 81 56 82 62 / 60 20 0 5 50 McKinney 60 80 57 80 62 / 50 20 0 5 50 Dallas 62 83 62 83 65 / 50 20 0 5 50 Terrell 60 81 59 82 62 / 50 30 10 5 60 Corsicana 61 83 62 81 63 / 40 30 10 5 60 Temple 61 86 61 83 64 / 40 20 5 5 60 Mineral Wells 59 83 56 85 61 / 40 10 0 5 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will migrate across the region, moving overhead tonight and then offshore on Thursday. A weak system will bring showers on Friday. A storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Carolinas next Monday followed by high pressure for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday...KLTX vad wind profile sensing upticks in wind speed, and HRRR 0-2.5 km time/height sections show nearly20 knots of wind at 250 meters through the night and early Thursday. This should help prevent fog/mist concerns in the overnight period with low-level RH already being marginal. The sea breeze marched well inland this evening, bringing a stir of wind to CPC around 0z, and even a backing and increase in wind at EYF in the last few hours, impressive given only a 10 degree land vs sea temp differential today, but the veering, synoptic return flow helped to move this boundary deep inland this evening in unison, with MAO even seeing a boost of evening breezes from the sea around 130z. No real changes were made to the ongoing, but with latest CONS-SHORT loading of sky element, am seeing partly cloudy wording late, as cirrus over spreads a bit more, and this looks on target. As of 3 PM Wednesday...Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, with return flow setting up for Thursday. Guidance consensus keeps min temps tonight in the mid 40s. Winds will likely decouple after sunset, which would result in lower 40s in some areas, however with dewpoints surging back to around 40 by 12Z Thursday, not expecting much in the way of frost potential. Southerly low- level flow and weak ridge axis aloft will combine with mostly sunny skies Thursday to push highs into the low 70s, with the exception of mid 60s along the beaches. Rainfall potential will increase late Thursday night ahead of a fast moving shortwave. The NAM is the quicker of the models to bring precip into the CWA, but even it keeps precip inland before 12Z Friday. For now will keep 30-50 PoPs across the western half of the CWA 06-12Z Friday, and 20 percent or less for the eastern half. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Moderate mid level system to cross the area in conjunction with a surface warm front on Friday. Models trending wetter and have raised QPF but not as high as guidance since the very low amplitude seen in mid levels should preclude the deep layer moisture featured in forecast soundings. Hard to rule out isolated thunder for similar reasons but decided to include especially with the support of SPC`s day 3 Convective Outlook. Widespread cloud cover will both limit daytime highs to near climatology while keeping Friday night lows elevated above it. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Friday night; perhaps somewhat rapidly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Fairly flat mid level ridge over the area on Saturday then gains a little amplitude on Sunday. This is partly due to shortwave digging across TX/LA. Locally will see warm temperatures but also an increase in low level moisture as a long fetch of Gulf moisture becomes established ahead of the approaching wave. Some light to moderate rain should break out across the area on Monday, possibly lasting into Tuesday deepening on the speed of the system. Guidance seems to agree that dry air works in from the west by Wednesday at the latest. Temperatures remain elevated above climatology late in the period as well as early. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR conditions thruout the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Still some question of whether BR occurs in the 06Z to 12Z time-line. However latest and various model MOS guidance continues to illustrate 3+ degree sfc dewpoint depressions overnight. As a result, will continue with a fog-less fcst. Only clouds to contend with during the next 24 hours will be mainly thin Cirrus SCT to occasionally BKN if opaque enough. Center of sfc high pressure overhead tonight will slide east of the Carolinas during Thu, with it`s ridge axis extending back to the west. Winds will become calm across all sites later this evening due to a relaxed sfc pg along with a sfc based inversion. Expect synoptic SE to SSE winds at 5 to 10 kt across all sites by late morning, with the aftn/evening mesoscale sea breeze adding 3 to 5 kt to the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thu night. MVFR/brief IFR appearing likely from midday Fri thru the evening as the next frontal system impacts the area. Mainly VFR midday Sat thru Mon with MVFR fog each morning. && .MARINE... As of 618 PM Wednesday...Docile to weak wave energy at present, around 2 feet shared between 2 wave trains, E at 12 seconds and SE at 8 seconds, interacting lazily, with very little choppiness through the overnight. No hazards but SSTs still chilly, 57-61, so clearly the hypothermia threat has not ended for the season yet. Through Thursday night...The center of surface high pressure will drift east across the waters this evening. The pressure gradient will be weak, so winds are expected to be generally 10 kt or less. The center of the high will remain north of the area waters Thursday, and this will maintain an easterly component to the wind direction...perhaps just north of east with the possible development of a very weak inverted trough along the coast Thursday. As the high lifts north Thursday night, winds will veer to the southeast and increase to 10-15 kt. Friday through Friday night: As of 300 PM Wednesday... Approaching upper level feature to have a weak surface reflection on Friday that will veer flow. The gradient will also tighten some but generally east of the area. Right at the end of the period the weak surface wave passes by to our north turning the winds to the NW but also starting an abating trend in wind speed. Saturday through Monday: As of 300 PM Wednesday... The weekend will bring a very light pressure gradient as the pattern is poorly defined. What little swell component can be found across the western Atlantic largely stays to our south. This expect predominantly wind waves that will only average 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...CRM/MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1129 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 An upper low pressure system will move through central Indiana Thursday night. This system, nearby frontal boundaries and deep moisture will result in rain overspreading the area Thursday afternoon and night. TheN, most areas will dry out by Friday afternoon as high pressure builds in. More unsettled weather is expected late this weekend and next week as a pair of southern systems lift through the area. Look for above normal temperatures through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight and Thursday morning/... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Cut PoPs even further based on HRRR and RAP output through the overnight along with the continued very dry air and inability to saturate. Only slight chance PoPs confined to the northern counties beginning after 6z. A little less cloud cover in the southern counties for the next few hours but end result of increasing clouds is the same. No other appreciable changes made. Previous discussion follows... Isentropic lift on the 300K level, overtop a frontal boundary and ahead of an upper 4 corners trough of low pressure, could bring a few rain showers to mainly northern sections late tonight per the High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Otherwise, model time sections and satellite strongly support thick cloud cover. The rain will take some time to reach the ground per dry lower levels and relatively high condensation pressure deficits. Thus, support the blend low PoPs, mainly after 06z. With the clouds around and light southerly low level flow, prefer temperatures at or above blend lows in the middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday afternoon through Saturday/... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Models in good agreement that the 4 corners system will move through central Indiana Thursday night. Deep moisture and decent lift are expected to result in widespread rain Thursday afternoon and night. The rain will be decreasing in coverage and ending Friday as the system moves out. Then, good confidence high pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures back for Saturday. Blend highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s look good for Saturday. Normal highs for early April are near 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM (Saturday Night Through Wednesday)... Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper troughing will remain across the area through the long term period. Individual smaller waves will move through the upper troughing. At the surface, surface low pressure systems will move through. The result will be frequent chances for rain during the period. Still not good confidence in timing of the best chances due to uncertainties at this time frame in how the systems will evolve. Above normal temperatures to start the long term will give way to near or below normal temperatures as colder air gets pulled in behind the low pressure systems. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 040600z TAF issuance/... Issued at 1129 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 VFR conditions are expected until at least 18z. Sometime between 18z and 0z MVFR ceilings should arrive, and rain (and MVFR visibilities) should overspread the sites during that period as well as a frontal system approaches. Winds will continue to be fairly light and variable through the overnight hours, but increase to 6 to 11 kts out of mainly the southeast by mid morning and staying that way through the rest of the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK/CP SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
913 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb) latest available satellite imagery overlaid with available model streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict the axis of the next shortwave trough aligned from Nebraska to the TX Panhandle within a zonal/progressive pattern over much of the CONUS. To the south of that, another shortwave was moving across Central Old Mexico. Downstream of that, middle and upper ridging was evident from the Western Caribbean Sea, northwards to Georgia. South Florida and the Florida Keys were beneath very dry air underneath the northern periphery of this anticyclone. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest available marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 900 pm, detail a 1030 mb high centered right near Charleston, SC. Well to the south of that, the tail end of stationary frontal zone crosses to near the Middle and Lower Florida Keys. This is the end of an occluding storm force cyclone located east of Atlantic Canada. The 00Z evening sounding illustrated a gentle northeast flow from the surface to 900 mb, then light and chaotic becoming southwest to west above 850 mb, then reaching 25 knots plus finally above 500 mb. Overall sounding was very moist for April 3rd, with PWAT at 1.54 with moisture up to 700 mb. .CURRENTLY...As of 900 pm, skies across the islands and surrounding waters were partly to mostly cloudy. Radar still indicated isolated showers arcing along a broken shear line moving slowly southwest from north of the Content Keys southeast to about 30 nm SSE of Ohio Key. Temperatures across the islands are in the middle to upper 70s, with dewpoints around 70 to the lower 70s. C-man stations are temporarily recording winds near 20 knots along the Florida Reef well behind the shear line off of the Upper Keys, but only 15 knots across the Florida Reef ahead of the shear line out to the Dry Tortugas. .SHORT TERM...Overnight and Thursday, the aforementioned arcing shear line will continue to move slowly west southwest and gradually wither away, and associated shower activity should also wane along it. That being said, as typically strong, near 1030 mb, early spring high pressure presently near the SC coast now gradually slides overnight and Thursday, winds will freshen a bit from east to west, becoming 15 to 20 knots across all waters. Although a surge is presently indicating winds near 20 knots for an hour or two off of the Upper Keys, all available model guidance, including the latest WRF and HRRR average 15 to 20 knots overnight and early Thursday (thru 12Z). A minor update was already performed earlier this evening to homogenize a 30 percent chance for pops across all of the Keys on account of the showers along the shear axis but that activity began to wane as it approached the Lower Keys, and other showers moving southwest from Mainland Monroe County failed to reach the Keys. But given the freshening winds and available forecast soundings illustration of well above normal columnar moisture in place thru 12Z( averaging about 1.50 inches), expect surface convergence to allow for redevelopment of isolated showers. Hence will maintain a 20 percent chance for showers across the Keys and surrounding waters. && .MARINE...SCEC conditions are expected to develop across all waters tonight across all waters overnight. SCEC conditions look likely across at least the Florida Straits and Offshore Gulf waters 20 to 60 nm west of Mainland Monroe County during Thursday morning. && .AVIATION...Rest of tonight and Thursday am, VFR conditions are expected across the KEYW and KMTH island terminals. Brief mvfr cigs and/or vis are possible in isolated showers which may impact either/both terminals if any showers manage to pass over them. Surface winds will average 090-100 degrees aoa 10-12 knots with gusts to between 16 and 20 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Futterman Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman Upper Air/Data Collection/Social media......Chesser Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: