Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
954 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty westerly winds will persist into this evening in
wake of a cold front passage. Fair and cool conditions are
expected for tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds
into the region. It will still be breezy, but winds will not be
as strong. An approaching warm front will bring some rain and
snow to the region on Friday into Friday night, with best
chances for snow across higher elevations.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...Wind Advisory extended for all of eastern New York and
western New England until 1 AM...
As of 945 PM EDT...Mesoscale features show an increase in low
level wind magnitudes with NY Mesonet showing winds at or above
50 mph with a few reports of trees down. So we will extend the
advisory through the midnight hour. 00Z NAM and RAP reveal a jet
core coming down the Mohawk as 00Z sounding shows a healthy
mixing layer which are the culprits for the increase in wind
gusts this evening. Otherwise, just a few clouds across the
region with a little increase in mid level clouds across Lake
Ontario and central NY. Temperatures look in good shape overall
with minimal enhancements at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will feature dry conditions with abundant sunshine and
slightly below normal temperatures, as high pressure builds
eastward across the Great Lakes. With the center of the
anticyclone still positioned to our west, and a very dry air
mass in place, it will be another breezy day. However, winds
will not be as strong as Wednesday due to forecast lower mixing
heights around 850 mb and relatively weaker winds aloft. This
should result in W-NW winds gusting to around 25-35 mph from
late morning through early evening.
Winds will finally subside Thursday night, as the surface high
moves directly over our region. It will be cold night though, as
mainly clear skies and light winds will lead to good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows expected to be in the teens
and 20s.
High pressure will quickly shift eastward into New England
Friday morning, and off the coast by Friday afternoon. As a weak
area of low pressure lifts northward into the central Great
Lakes region, its associated warm front will approach from the
Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. Isentropic lift ahead of
the warm front will result in precipitation developing from SW
to NE across our region during the day Friday. There are some
timing differences among various sources of model guidance, but
the there is consensus that the precip will hold off until after
12Z, and more likely until 15Z or 18Z from Albany north and
east. Due to the timing of precip arriving during the daylight
hours, we are expecting mainly rain in valleys and possible
snow/sleet in the higher terrain. There is a low probability for
some freezing rain, but it is not climatologically favored this
time of year during the late morning/afternoon hours. Low-level
thermal profiles do look cold enough for snow/sleet mix in the
higher terrain, but accumulations should generally be confined
to mountain areas above 1500 ft.
Any rain/snow should change to plain rain late Friday into
Friday night as the warm front is expected to lift just north of
the region. It will be a cold rain with temps mainly in the mid
30 to lower 40s. Precipitation shadowing will likely occur with
the S-SW flow aloft, so areas from Albany west through the
Schoharie Valley and northern mid Hudson Valley will see the
least amounts (around a quarter inch), with another minimum
area across the central Adirondacks. Typical locations such as
the southern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Saratoga region
and western New England will see higher amounts of a half to
three quarters of an inch. At this time total snow accumulations
of a dusting to an inch or two will be possible across the
higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast period will begin with a brief period of
dry weather with seasonable temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
followed by a potentially prolonged period of wet weather.
Saturday and Sunday...Mid-level height rises and broad/weak
subsidence will overspread the region Saturday and continue
through most of Sunday. There could be some lingering rain
showers over western New England on early Saturday, and there
could be some clouds/sprinkles approaching the Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley on late Sunday, but elsewhere the surface
high pressure will keep conditions dry with seasonable
temperatures. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s over the higher
terrain and in the 50s and low 60s over valley regions. Lows
will generally be in the 30s.
Monday through Wednesday...The pattern will quickly change as a
deep upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS. There is
considerable uncertainty with respect to the synoptic flow
pattern amplitude and progression as we head through the first
half of the week, so this will be a low confidence forecast. The
12Z GFS suggests a digging trough transitioning to a cut-off
low over the Great Lakes region. The resultant surface features
include a quasi-stationary boundary situated over the region,
with coastal low redevelopment on the back end of the system.
The deterministic run of the 12Z GFS resolves higher amounts of
QPF then any of the GEFS members, so it is considered somewhat
of an outlier as of now, but multiple runs have shown quite a
bit of QPF. This solution would drop multiple inches of liquid
precipitation over the region with the possibility of multiple
precipitation types. The 12Z ECMWF suggests a less amplified,
more progressive pattern with a warm front lifting through the
region followed by a rapidly translating cold front. This would
be a much drier solution. Just about all guidance points toward
the potential for periods of wet weather Monday through
Wednesday, with normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
The details will have to be worked out as we get closer to early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While VFR conditions will prevail, gusty westerly winds will
persist through the TAF forecast cycle. Occasional gusts
20-30kts are expected through most of the evening hours with a
minimal decrease overnight. Those magnitudes increase once again
with daylight Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SN.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph and RH values of 20 to 30 percent
will persist into early this evening...
Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph and minimum RH values of 15 to 25
percent are expected on Thursday...
Strong gusty westerly winds will persist into this evening in
wake of a cold front passage. Fair and cool conditions are
expected for tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds
into the region. It will still be breezy, but winds will not be
as strong. An approaching warm front will bring some rain and
snow to the region on Friday into Friday night, with best
chances for snow across higher elevations.
Westerly winds tonight will decrease to 10 to 20 mph, then
increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will
become northwest Thursday night and decrease to less than 10
mph.
RH values will only recover to around 50-75 percent tonight,
then decrease to minimum values of 15 to 25 percent Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Other than some isolated to widely scattered sprinkles or
flurries into early this evening, dry weather is expected
through Thursday night. Although daytime temperatures will be a
little milder than recent days, overnight lows still looks to
below freezing for much of the area for the next few nights.
This should allow for a diurnal melting pattern of the snowpack
that continues to be in place over the high terrain.
The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Friday
into Friday night, with some rain and high elevation snow from
an approaching frontal boundary. Some rises are possible on
rivers/stream, but it still appears runoff looks limited enough
to keep rivers and streams well within their banks. Also, the
precipitation may fall as at least some snow over the mountains.
Dry weather should then return for the weekend, but additional
precipitation is expected by early next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will occur Thursday as high pressure
crosses the area. Another cold front will approach the area with
rain expected Thursday night into Friday. Active but warm
weather is expected late in the weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows cirrus clouds crossing the region with
temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight dry
high pressure will remain over the region with light and
variable winds. With high clouds to continue crossing the
region overnight radiational cooling conditions will be less
than optimal with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s at
most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak shortwave ridging will develop over the forecast area
Thursday ahead of an approaching upper trough over the
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will shift
farther offshore allowing for a warm, moist southeasterly
surface flow to develop. Precipitable water values will rise
from below 0.5 inches to almost an inch by 00z Friday. Rainfall
will hold off through the day remaining to our west before
overspreading the area during the overnight hours Thursday
night.
The upper trough will move east into the area late Thursday
night and cross the region Friday bringing widespread rain to
the forecast area. The greatest moisture flux into the region
will coincide with a precipitable water value max just under 1.5
inches early Friday morning. Will maintain high likely to
categorical pops in the forecast late Thursday night into
Friday. Chances of rain decrease through the day as the upper
trough shifts east and the forecast area is within the
subsidence behind the departing system. A weak cold front will
push through the region and eventually stall to our south late
Friday night. Rainfall amounts expected to be generally around a
half inch but some locations could see amounts up to an inch.
Temperatures during this period will be mild with highs in the
70s Thursday followed by lows in the 50s Thursday night.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday with clouds
and rain early ranging from the upper 60s northern and western
Midlands to lower 70s southeast Midlands and CSRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A building upper ridge will shift over the forecast area over
the weekend in response to a deep upper trough over the western
part of the country. Despite reasonable atmospheric moisture
with precipitable water values around an inch Saturday the
subsidence from the upper ridging and lack of upper forcing
should prevent much in the way of precipitation. However, with
plenty of sunshine and developing instability cannot rule out
isolated or scattered showers possible in the CSRA. As the upper
system to our west pushes into the MS/TN valleys Sunday and
Sunday night there will be greater chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area as deep southerly flow
promotes moisture transport into the region off the Gulf of
Mexico and precipitable water values rise to around 1.5 inches.
The atmosphere will become moderately unstable as well with
forecast LI values -6 to -8 C.
Medium-range models continue to differ on timing of the passage
of the upper trough through the forecast area with the EC being
more progressive and ending precipitation by Monday night while
the GFS has a more positively tilted trough that is slower to
push through lingering into Tuesday. Will keep pops similar to
what was inherited given the uncertainty and add a dry day 7
Wednesday with generally zonal 500 mb flow and a drier
atmosphere in place.
Temperatures during this period will be above normal through
this period with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s
to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period.
Dry high pressure in the region will move farther off the coast
Thursday. An increase in low-level moisture will occur in an
onshore flow. Expect mainly VFR conditions tonight because of
the initial dryness. The GFS and NAM MOS, SREF, HRRR plus
crossover temperature indicate VFR conditions. We forecasted
VFR conditions except did include a period of MVFR fog at AGS
and OGB because of the added moisture in the river valleys
combined with light wind. The moisture increase and diurnal
heating should result in stratocumulus Thursday afternoon.
Model forecast soundings suggest a VFR level and scattered
coverage. The MAV and MET MOS have wind light tonight and
southeast around 10 knots Thursday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
are expected late Thursday night through Monday associated with
a frontal system in the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
...Please see latest 0Z aviation discussion...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Main focus is centered on the ongoing rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast Wyoming that will
then spread into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Thunderstorms
will contain brief heavy downpours and wind gusts upwards of 30 to
40 mph. Thunderstorms and overall shower coverage will decrease
through the evening hours as they shift east.
A weak shortwave trough axis is passing over the central Rockies
this afternoon per RAP analysis and water vapor imagery. The
resultant weak synoptic lift plus weak instability of 500 J/Kg
MUCAPE is supporting isolated thunderstorms along the I-80
corridor east of Cheyenne moving towards Kimball and Sidney,
Nebraska. Instability is more limited north of this corridor and
reduce thunder wording in weather grids there. Other than a brief
heavy downpour and winds gusts of 30-40 mph, the thunderstorms
are not expected to be strong. Thunderstorms will weaken as
greater stabilization occurs during the evening hours and as the
shortwave trough shift east.
Given the saturated grounds across the NE Panhandle and with the
rain from this afternoon plus cool east upslope flow overnight,
fog and low clouds appear likely. Fog and low cloud development is
hinted at in the HRRR and NAM guidance across the Panhandle for
Thursday morning. The fog will dissipate by late morning to a
warmer and sunnier afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Clouds and precipitation will clear to the east early Thursday as
high pressure settles in. Temperatures will be on the rise quickly
Thursday and Friday with highs in the 60s for the plains. A few
showers and partly cloudy skies are expected Friday with the
passage of s shortwave trough. Precip chances will remain
scattered to isolated with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Saturday as some
residual cloud and showers sticks around. Temps however will
remain above average and pleasant.
Sunday and early next week look to remain above average in the
temperature department as high pressure and northwest flow
develop. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected until
mid-week next week as the next storm system arrives. Beyond day 6
models loose grip on the general pattern but a wet and active is
generally expected with potential for snow and rain mid week next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
An area of showers and weak thunderstorms associated with a
shortwave are continuing to impact southeastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle. This is contributing to ceilings down to MVFR.
Visibility is mostly unaffected due to the lack of strength in
these showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, however, areas in the
Nebraska Panhandle including KCDR and KAIA will likely see fog.
Visibility may get down to IFR or lower. Towards the end of the
period, fog will dissipate and clouds will begin to move out.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Fire weather concerns remain low as saturated soils and fuels
continue. Warming and drying conditions will occur late week and
partially into the weekend ahead of another weather system mid-
next week. Winds will be on the increase over the weekend from the
west at 20 to 30 mph and minimum relative humidity falls near 30
percent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Potential for isolated flooding remains across the Nebraska
panhandle as showers continue tonight and through Thursday
evening. The good news is that this system has limited QPF with
only 2 to 3 tenths expected for maximum precip. The bad news is
that soils remain saturated and runoff will likely cause streams
to swell. No change to the existing flood products is expected at
this time but conditions will be evaluated as needed.
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...JSA
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...CW
FIRE WEATHER...JSA
HYDROLOGY...AL/JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Vigorous shortwave evident on infrared satellite imagery near the
Four Corners as of midday, preceded by a widespread canopy of
cirrus over Kansas. Once again today, cirrus will likely temper
temperatures down a few degrees from forecasted values, serving to
limit already modest CAPE/bouyancy values. Indeed, 12z NAM shows
both most unstable and surface based CAPE struggling to get over
500 J/kg through this evening, even along the southern Oklahoma
border. Moisture return ahead of this otherwise energetic
shortwave is meager, with dewpoints only expected to rise into the
40s across the southern counties prior to convective initiation
this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50-52 range in NW Texas as of
midday will advect northward across the eastern TX panhandle this
afternoon, where better forcing and modestly better CAPE will
assist some supercell development. Any supercell structures are
expected to remain confined to the eastern TX panhandle and
western OK, with messier modes in SW KS. Latest HRRR iterations
show convection initiation near Elkhart-Liberal by 5 pm which
seems reasonable. Showers and thunderstorms will subsequently move
eastward across the southern counties this evening (primarily
south of US 50). Some storms may produce marginally severe
wind/hail, per 5% wind/hail probabilities from SPC. Measurable
rain is most likely SE of Dodge City this evening nearest the
strongest forcing, with many other areas likely missing out.
After midnight, associated weak cold front will arrive with a
gentle northerly wind shift. Short term models agree that
widespread postfrontal stratus will develop after midnight through
Thursday morning, as the boundary layer saturates. Some areas of
fog are also possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall
tonight. Temperatures tonight holding in the 40s at most
locations.
Thursday...Shortwave exits early, followed by strong subsidence
and a clearing sky. There will be no cold air advection behind
this southern stream system. In fact, models show several degrees
of warming at 850 mb compared to Wednesday. With full sunshine
tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will warm easily through the 60s
to near 70, despite light northerly winds. A beautiful spring
afternoon...get outside and enjoy!
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Friday...Much warmer but also much windier. Strong warming
expected in the afternoon, in response to developing SW flow
aloft, and 850 mb temperatures warming to 18+ C. Expect 70s for
all zones, with warmest locales cracking 80. South winds will
respond to the next lee trough, gusting 30-40 mph.
Models are now much weaker with the next southern stream shortwave
expected to eject out onto the plains over the weekend. 12z ECMWF
actually splits the energy into two pieces, one over Kansas
Saturday, while the other shortwave digs into northern Mexico on
Saturday. Mentioned mainly chance category rain showers and
isolated embedded thunder during the Saturday time frame. Rainfall
and impacts will be limited, with little if any threat of severe
weather. Second piece of energy evolves into a closed low in Texas
on Sunday. GFS has much stronger NW winds on Sunday behind this
departing system, with ECMWF not nearly as much.
Quiet and dry, beautiful spring weather is expected early next
week. Dry NW flow Monday becoming zonal Tuesday, accompanied by
strong warming. 12z ECMWF bias correction is warmer than the model
blend on Tuesday, approaching 80 degrees.
The last several runs of ECMWF have shown consistency showing a
strong cyclone impacting Kansas during the Wednesday April 10th
timeframe. Of course, details will change many times with this
cyclone over the coming 7 days. At any rate, ECMWF currently shows
an intense cyclone with rain changing to snow, intense winds, and
a very strong cold surge into April 11th. No freezes are expected
through April 10th, but a very hard freeze may occur Friday
morning April 12th.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
VFR will start out in the TAF pd. Eventually, IFR/LIFR stratus and some
patchy fog will develop by morning. Thunderstorms are still possible
this evening. The highest chance right now stands at KLBL. Storms may
not make it far enough north to KGCK and KDDC. Will monitor short term
radar trends. Otherwise, winds will eventually shift SE/S to N later
in the TAF pd.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 69 47 75 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 43 68 45 75 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 39 69 46 78 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 42 69 48 77 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 46 65 46 73 / 50 0 0 0
P28 50 69 47 75 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
923 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Overall, very quiet conditions will continue across the Northland as
high pressure, currently situated over the Red River Valley over
eastern North Dakota, builds into the region this evening and
overnight, leading to enhanced radiational cooling due to clear
skies and light winds. We did decrease the overnight lows tonight by
a degree or two in some spots, but otherwise, the forecast for cold
temperatures tonight is still on track. The coldest readings should
be over the Minnesota Arrowhead, where lows will fall into the
single digits and lower teens above zero, with middle teens to lower
20s elsewhere.
The high will shift eastward Thursday morning, which will help to
bring southerly return flow and warm air advection into the region.
RAP and NAM model soundings show a deep layer of dry air in the low-
levels, so no precipitation should result from this warm air
advection through the early afternoon. However, the soundings do
show some top-down saturation of the column as additional moisture
advects into the region, so PoPs will increase from the south in the
late afternoon and into Thursday evening. Initially, the
precipitation type will mainly be rain, although some snow could mix
in along the North Shore where it is colder. A wintry mix will be
possible Thursday night and Friday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
The pattern will turn more active for the long term with multiple
systems expected to move through. Temperatures will continue to warm
above normal for the weekend before cooling below normal for the new
week.
A weak shortwave will move through the Northland Thursday night into
Friday morning. A warm front will lift through the region with the
associated warm air advection leading to isentropic lift and a
chance of wintry precipitation for Thursday night. Precipitation will
be more snow around Lake Superior with rain or a rain/snow mix away
from the lake to start the evening. Snow will expand during the
evening as temperatures cool, but as warmer air moves in for the
early morning hours, a change over to rain will occur from southwest
to northeast. Some areas of freezing rain will be possible in the
transition zone with a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible
across mainly northwest Wisconsin, especially Price County and
adjacent areas of Ashland, Iron, and Sawyer Counties. Any
lingering mix or snow will change over to rain after sunrise
Friday before tapering off by late morning. Snowfall amounts of
around a dusting to around an inch will be possible, especially
along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Another weak wave will move through the region late Friday night
into Saturday morning and bring a light round of precipitation. It
may start as a light wintry mix early Saturday morning, but is
expected to quickly change to rain. Confidence decreases beyond this
point due to poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency with
several different scenarios being possible for the evolution of this
system for the remainder of Saturday and into Sunday and Monday.
Rain chances will be possible through much of this period, but the
exact timing and intensity remains in question. However, models
continue to indicate some MUCAPE for Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg across the southern
reaches of the forecast area which could lead to a few thunderstorms
south of a Cass Lake to Moose Lake to Winter, WI, line. While the
EURO and GEM are more progressive with this system, moving the bulk
of it to our east by Monday, the GFS is much slower and meanders the
low around Wisconsin and Michigan into Tuesday night before quickly
moving into the Northeast. This scenario seems unlikely at this
point, but have kept some showers in place for Monday into Tuesday
as we remain under an inverted trough per the EURO/GEM for much of
Monday and then slight chances for rain Tuesday from the GFS. While
this activity Monday and Tuesday will be mainly rain, a rain/snow
mix or all snow will be possible during the overnight hours, but it
looks light.
Temperatures will run above normal in the 50s for Friday and the
weekend, although winds off the lake Saturday will keep areas along
the lakeshore in the 40s. A few 60s will also be possible in our far
southern areas on Saturday as well. Temperatures will then cool to
near to below normal for Monday and Tuesday as the storm system
moves out. This will result in readings in the upper 30s to middle
40s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
VFR with high pressure overhead. By Thursday mid morning, clouds
will be on the increase from the south, above 5K ft. Gusty surface
winds will also return by mid morning Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
High pressure departs Thursday morning, winds will veer
northeasterly at 10 to 20 knots over the southwest arm of Lake
Superior. An easterly wind at 5 to 10 knots is forecast elsewhere.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 18 38 30 50 / 0 30 40 20
INL 12 44 33 47 / 0 20 50 30
BRD 23 46 35 56 / 0 20 30 10
HYR 19 46 33 53 / 0 30 40 20
ASX 21 43 33 52 / 0 20 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...GSF
MARINE...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
924 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.UPDATE...
The inherited forecast remains in great shape with just a few
cosmetic changes required.
Regional radar imagery at this hour indicated that streamer
showers continue to lift northward, though the 00 UTC FWD RAOB
indicates very dry air below cloud base has precluded much in the
way of measurable rainfall. Regional VWP indicates that 925mb
flow has increased up to near 40 knots and this will continue to
usher in deeper moisture and thus I expect more in the way of
measurable rainfall associated with WAA after midnight. With the
strong capping still evidenced on area RAOBs, I believe most of
this activity will remain in the form of showers. Upstream, radar
depicts a cluster of storms ongoing across western Oklahoma. With
850-700mb flow on the increase, a conveyor of higher theta-e air
should be transported northward. This may foster some slight back-building
of convective cells associated with any storm complex to the
north just prior to 12 UTC and the latest HRRR and NAM NEST
solutions suggest that this is quite plausible. With this in mind,
I`ve nudged PoPs upward into the likely category (60%) near and
north of the US HWY 380 corridor. MUCAPE values will near 1000
J/kg and with deep layer shear increasing ahead of the lead
shortwave trough, there will be some organization to convective
elements and thus a strong to near severe storm cannot be ruled
out capable of hail near the size of quarters.
Outside of adjusting PoPs/Wx grids, the rest of the forecast
remains in solid shape.
Bain
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 714 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/
Concerns---Ceiling trends at all TAFs and thunder potential at
Metroplex.
Low level moisture has been slow to slosh eastward towards the
I-35/I-35W corridors and this has resulted in VFR for most of the
day today. This will change over the next 2-4 hours as winds just
above the surface start to slowly veer. In response, cigs should
fall into the MVFR category at ACT...FTW and AFW with MVFR
expected at all sites by 0400 UTC. Lift will continue to increase
and some spotty SHRA will be possible, with the best potential in
the near term at ACT. Near and just after midnight, IFR cigs are
anticipated as low level moisture deepens across Central Texas
(at ACT). Farther north, the potential for a prolonged period of
IFR seems a little less likely given the nocturnal mixing and
elevated cloud bases and a TEMPO group to address this seems more
appropriate for the Metroplex.
During the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, our attention will turn
towards a loose convective complex now taking shape across the
Panhandles and western Oklahoma. With low level flow increasing in
magnitude, there seems to be a good potential for the development
of SHRA/TSRA south of the Red River. Impacts to both the Bowie
and Bonham cornerposts and to northbound departures appears most
certain during the morning push and the latest guidance does
indicate that convective cells will build southward into D10
airspace. Given the strong low level flow and building
instability aloft, felt it prudent to include a few hours of VCTS
at Metroplex TAFs from 1000-1400 UTC. If the potential for
thunder looks more likely in subsequent guidance and is supported
by observational data, a TEMPO TS may be included in later TAF
issuances---but confidence to do so now is too low. Otherwise,
south winds of 15 to 18 knots are anticipated with gusts in the 20
to 22 knot range. During the late morning to early afternoon
hours, VFR and westerly surface winds of 15 knots are expected.
Bain
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/
/Through Tomorrow/
A lee cyclone over the southern High Plains continues to organize
this afternoon, ahead of a 90-kt jet streak crossing the southern
Rockies. Ahead of this system, breezy south/southeasterly flow has
transported a modest plume of moisture (beneath 850 mb) across
North and Central Texas this afternoon. Some occasional breaks
have been noted within this cloud shield, but the approach of the
aforementioned system and re-invigoration of a low-level jet after
00Z will surge low clouds, patchy mist/fog, and a few showers
northward overnight. Lowest clouds and greatest coverage of fog
should exist over Central Texas, where RH values will be slightly
higher within the return flow regime.
Most convection across our area overnight should remain rather
shallow, given a fairly stout capping inversion above 850 mb.
However, near the terminus of the low-level jet (generally
southern Oklahoma trailing southeast towards the Sabine Valley),
focused isentropic ascent may weaken inhibition sufficiently for
a few thunderstorms. Most of these storms will likely remain to
our north/east overnight into tomorrow morning, but isolated
storms could work into our Red River and/or East Texas counties.
Any such cells are generally expected to be sub-severe, but one or
two could deepen sufficiently for a hail threat, owing to steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable effective shear. Still, dry
air associated with the EML will likely preclude parcels from
utilizing the entirety of available buoyancy.
As the shortwave trough crosses North Texas tomorrow morning, the
low-level jet will veer and shift east, focusing aforementioned
convection farther east towards the Mississippi Valley. While
precipitation chances will reduce considerably across our area,
the surface trough will take a few more hours to clear our eastern
counties. Veered flow and drying aloft will likely prohibit most
parcels from deepening sufficiently for thunderstorm activity
through mid-day, but a couple could do so, owing to a narrow pre-
trough reservoir of mid/upper 60s dew points. Hail would be the
primary threat, although gusty winds would be possible as well.
Behind the surface trough, a downslope breeze and clearing skies
will boost temps in the 80s in many locations. While fire-weather
conditions could become locally elevated, widespread concerns are
not anticipated. See the fire-weather discussion for more details.
Picca
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/
/Thursday Night through Wednesday/
Thursday night will be a quiet night as the rain shifts east of
the region and a weak front meanders in from the north. This
front is expected to stall across our Central Texas counties and
remain in that area through at least Friday morning. Some fog may
occur early Friday morning within the vicinity of the front.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected north of the front
Friday morning, but otherwise Friday will be a warm day as an
upper level ridge slides across the Southern Plains ahead of a
shortwave disturbance moving across northern Mexico. I have hedged
on the warmer side of guidance with afternoon highs ranging from
the upper 70s in the northeast to mid 80s in the west.
The shortwave disturbance, and associated upper level trough, will
move into southwest Texas Friday afternoon and night, spreading
larger scale lift across the region. In response to the
approaching system, the stalled front will have lifted north on
Friday afternoon allowing dewpoints in the 60s to spread back across
the region. Southerly winds through H850 will bring additional
moisture into the region, and showers and storms will start to
spread across the region from west to east Friday night. Forecast
soundings indicate some elevated storms may be able to produce
small hail overnight, and we will continue to assess this threat
with better model guidance arriving in the next 48 hours.
The rain will continue through the day on Saturday, likely
affecting outdoor plans across much of North and Central Texas.
Showers and storms will prevail through the morning hours, but may
start to end from west to east during the afternoon hours. At this
time, the upper level shortwave will be pulling north into
Oklahoma, but another upper level trough will be quickly digging
into southwest Texas on the heels of the first system. This
secondary system may prolong rain chances across our western
counties, but the influence of this secondary system is not quite
fully understood yet. Additional rain will likely occur across
part of the region on Sunday as the second upper level trough
moves across the state and a front also moves across North and
Central Texas...but confidence is low in where the better rain
chances will be on Sunday. For now, will carry high PoPs
everywhere on Saturday with a slow decrease across our western
counties Saturday night. Then will linger PoPs across roughly the
eastern half of the CWA on Sunday, but this area may need to be
expanded once we get better confidence in the influence of the
second system.
Severe weather concerns do exist on Saturday, but are not quite
clear cut yet. A severe weather risk may exist in the morning
hours, but the potential for widespread rainfall may minimize any
severe weather threat during the afternoon hours. In addition,
the first shortwave will be moving north of the area in the
afternoon, taking the best large scale lift with it. This may
also work against any severe weather threat during the afternoon
and evening hours. However, shear values are good for this time of
year and CAPE values aren`t bad, including Sunday, and we will
continue to monitor the severe weather potential over the weekend.
For the remainder of next week, generally dry weather is expected
with pleasant temperatures, but we may see afternoon highs
approaching 90 degrees by next Wednesday.
JLDunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 82 60 83 64 / 50 20 0 5 50
Waco 62 86 60 82 64 / 30 20 5 5 60
Paris 56 74 57 78 61 / 60 50 5 5 50
Denton 60 81 56 82 62 / 60 20 0 5 50
McKinney 60 80 57 80 62 / 50 20 0 5 50
Dallas 62 83 62 83 65 / 50 20 0 5 50
Terrell 60 81 59 82 62 / 50 30 10 5 60
Corsicana 61 83 62 81 63 / 40 30 10 5 60
Temple 61 86 61 83 64 / 40 20 5 5 60
Mineral Wells 59 83 56 85 61 / 40 10 0 5 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
24/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will migrate across the region, moving overhead
tonight and then offshore on Thursday. A weak system will bring
showers on Friday. A storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Carolinas next Monday followed by high
pressure for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1015 PM Wednesday...KLTX vad wind profile sensing upticks
in wind speed, and HRRR 0-2.5 km time/height sections show
nearly20 knots of wind at 250 meters through the night and early
Thursday. This should help prevent fog/mist concerns in the
overnight period with low-level RH already being marginal. The
sea breeze marched well inland this evening, bringing a stir of
wind to CPC around 0z, and even a backing and increase in wind
at EYF in the last few hours, impressive given only a 10 degree
land vs sea temp differential today, but the veering, synoptic
return flow helped to move this boundary deep inland this
evening in unison, with MAO even seeing a boost of evening
breezes from the sea around 130z. No real changes were made to
the ongoing, but with latest CONS-SHORT loading of sky element,
am seeing partly cloudy wording late, as cirrus over spreads a
bit more, and this looks on target.
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high
pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, with return flow
setting up for Thursday. Guidance consensus keeps min temps
tonight in the mid 40s. Winds will likely decouple after sunset,
which would result in lower 40s in some areas, however with
dewpoints surging back to around 40 by 12Z Thursday, not
expecting much in the way of frost potential. Southerly low-
level flow and weak ridge axis aloft will combine with mostly
sunny skies Thursday to push highs into the low 70s, with the
exception of mid 60s along the beaches. Rainfall potential will
increase late Thursday night ahead of a fast moving shortwave.
The NAM is the quicker of the models to bring precip into the
CWA, but even it keeps precip inland before 12Z Friday. For now
will keep 30-50 PoPs across the western half of the CWA 06-12Z
Friday, and 20 percent or less for the eastern half.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Moderate mid level system to cross the area
in conjunction with a surface warm front on Friday. Models trending
wetter and have raised QPF but not as high as guidance since the
very low amplitude seen in mid levels should preclude the deep layer
moisture featured in forecast soundings. Hard to rule out isolated
thunder for similar reasons but decided to include especially with
the support of SPC`s day 3 Convective Outlook. Widespread cloud
cover will both limit daytime highs to near climatology while
keeping Friday night lows elevated above it. Rain chances will
diminish from west to east Friday night; perhaps somewhat rapidly.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Fairly flat mid level ridge over the area
on Saturday then gains a little amplitude on Sunday. This is partly
due to shortwave digging across TX/LA. Locally will see warm
temperatures but also an increase in low level moisture as a long
fetch of Gulf moisture becomes established ahead of the approaching
wave. Some light to moderate rain should break out across the area
on Monday, possibly lasting into Tuesday deepening on the speed of
the system. Guidance seems to agree that dry air works in from the
west by Wednesday at the latest. Temperatures remain elevated above
climatology late in the period as well as early.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR conditions thruout the 24 hr TAF Issuance
period. Still some question of whether BR occurs in the 06Z to
12Z time-line. However latest and various model MOS guidance
continues to illustrate 3+ degree sfc dewpoint depressions
overnight. As a result, will continue with a fog-less fcst.
Only clouds to contend with during the next 24 hours will be
mainly thin Cirrus SCT to occasionally BKN if opaque enough.
Center of sfc high pressure overhead tonight will slide east of
the Carolinas during Thu, with it`s ridge axis extending back to
the west. Winds will become calm across all sites later this
evening due to a relaxed sfc pg along with a sfc based
inversion. Expect synoptic SE to SSE winds at 5 to 10 kt across
all sites by late morning, with the aftn/evening mesoscale sea
breeze adding 3 to 5 kt to the coastal terminals.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
Thu night. MVFR/brief IFR appearing likely from midday Fri thru
the evening as the next frontal system impacts the area. Mainly
VFR midday Sat thru Mon with MVFR fog each morning.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 618 PM Wednesday...Docile to weak wave energy at present,
around 2 feet shared between 2 wave trains, E at 12 seconds and
SE at 8 seconds, interacting lazily, with very little choppiness
through the overnight. No hazards but SSTs still chilly, 57-61,
so clearly the hypothermia threat has not ended for the season
yet.
Through Thursday night...The center of surface high pressure will
drift east across the waters this evening. The pressure gradient
will be weak, so winds are expected to be generally 10 kt or less.
The center of the high will remain north of the area waters
Thursday, and this will maintain an easterly component to the wind
direction...perhaps just north of east with the possible development
of a very weak inverted trough along the coast Thursday. As the high
lifts north Thursday night, winds will veer to the southeast and
increase to 10-15 kt.
Friday through Friday night: As of 300 PM Wednesday... Approaching
upper level feature to have a weak surface reflection on Friday that
will veer flow. The gradient will also tighten some but generally
east of the area. Right at the end of the period the weak surface
wave passes by to our north turning the winds to the NW but also
starting an abating trend in wind speed.
Saturday through Monday: As of 300 PM Wednesday... The weekend will
bring a very light pressure gradient as the pattern is poorly
defined. What little swell component can be found across the western
Atlantic largely stays to our south. This expect predominantly wind
waves that will only average 2-3 ft.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...CRM/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1129 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
An upper low pressure system will move through central Indiana
Thursday night. This system, nearby frontal boundaries and deep
moisture will result in rain overspreading the area Thursday
afternoon and night. TheN, most areas will dry out by Friday
afternoon as high pressure builds in.
More unsettled weather is expected late this weekend and next week
as a pair of southern systems lift through the area.
Look for above normal temperatures through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Thursday morning/...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Cut PoPs even further based on HRRR and RAP output through the
overnight along with the continued very dry air and inability to
saturate. Only slight chance PoPs confined to the northern counties
beginning after 6z. A little less cloud cover in the southern
counties for the next few hours but end result of increasing clouds
is the same. No other appreciable changes made. Previous discussion
follows...
Isentropic lift on the 300K level, overtop a frontal boundary and
ahead of an upper 4 corners trough of low pressure, could bring a
few rain showers to mainly northern sections late tonight per the
High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Otherwise, model time sections and
satellite strongly support thick cloud cover. The rain will take
some time to reach the ground per dry lower levels and relatively
high condensation pressure deficits. Thus, support the blend low
PoPs, mainly after 06z.
With the clouds around and light southerly low level flow, prefer
temperatures at or above blend lows in the middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Thursday afternoon through Saturday/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Models in good agreement that the 4 corners system will move through
central Indiana Thursday night. Deep moisture and decent lift are
expected to result in widespread rain Thursday afternoon and night.
The rain will be decreasing in coverage and ending Friday as the
system moves out.
Then, good confidence high pressure will bring dry weather and mild
temperatures back for Saturday. Blend highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s look good for Saturday. Normal highs for early April are
near 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night Through Wednesday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.
Upper troughing will remain across the area through the long term
period. Individual smaller waves will move through the upper
troughing. At the surface, surface low pressure systems will move
through.
The result will be frequent chances for rain during the period.
Still not good confidence in timing of the best chances due to
uncertainties at this time frame in how the systems will evolve.
Above normal temperatures to start the long term will give way to
near or below normal temperatures as colder air gets pulled in
behind the low pressure systems.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 040600z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 1129 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
VFR conditions are expected until at least 18z. Sometime between
18z and 0z MVFR ceilings should arrive, and rain (and MVFR
visibilities) should overspread the sites during that period as
well as a frontal system approaches. Winds will continue to be
fairly light and variable through the overnight hours, but
increase to 6 to 11 kts out of mainly the southeast by mid morning
and staying that way through the rest of the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
913 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019
.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb) latest
available satellite imagery overlaid with available model
streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict the axis of the next
shortwave trough aligned from Nebraska to the TX Panhandle within
a zonal/progressive pattern over much of the CONUS. To the south
of that, another shortwave was moving across Central Old Mexico.
Downstream of that, middle and upper ridging was evident from the
Western Caribbean Sea, northwards to Georgia. South Florida and
the Florida Keys were beneath very dry air underneath the northern
periphery of this anticyclone.
At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700
mb), latest available marine and land surface observations and
analysis as of 900 pm, detail a 1030 mb high centered right near
Charleston, SC. Well to the south of that, the tail end of
stationary frontal zone crosses to near the Middle and Lower
Florida Keys. This is the end of an occluding storm force cyclone
located east of Atlantic Canada. The 00Z evening sounding
illustrated a gentle northeast flow from the surface to 900 mb,
then light and chaotic becoming southwest to west above 850 mb,
then reaching 25 knots plus finally above 500 mb. Overall sounding
was very moist for April 3rd, with PWAT at 1.54 with moisture up
to 700 mb.
.CURRENTLY...As of 900 pm, skies across the islands and
surrounding waters were partly to mostly cloudy. Radar still
indicated isolated showers arcing along a broken shear line
moving slowly southwest from north of the Content Keys southeast
to about 30 nm SSE of Ohio Key. Temperatures across the islands
are in the middle to upper 70s, with dewpoints around 70 to the
lower 70s. C-man stations are temporarily recording winds near 20
knots along the Florida Reef well behind the shear line off of
the Upper Keys, but only 15 knots across the Florida Reef ahead of
the shear line out to the Dry Tortugas.
.SHORT TERM...Overnight and Thursday, the aforementioned arcing
shear line will continue to move slowly west southwest and
gradually wither away, and associated shower activity should also
wane along it. That being said, as typically strong, near 1030 mb, early
spring high pressure presently near the SC coast now gradually
slides overnight and Thursday, winds will freshen a bit from east
to west, becoming 15 to 20 knots across all waters. Although a
surge is presently indicating winds near 20 knots for an hour or
two off of the Upper Keys, all available model guidance,
including the latest WRF and HRRR average 15 to 20 knots overnight
and early Thursday (thru 12Z).
A minor update was already performed earlier this evening to
homogenize a 30 percent chance for pops across all of the Keys on
account of the showers along the shear axis but that activity
began to wane as it approached the Lower Keys, and other showers
moving southwest from Mainland Monroe County failed to reach the
Keys. But given the freshening winds and available forecast
soundings illustration of well above normal columnar moisture in
place thru 12Z( averaging about 1.50 inches), expect surface
convergence to allow for redevelopment of isolated showers. Hence
will maintain a 20 percent chance for showers across the Keys and
surrounding waters.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC conditions are expected to develop across all
waters tonight across all waters overnight. SCEC conditions look
likely across at least the Florida Straits and Offshore Gulf
waters 20 to 60 nm west of Mainland Monroe County during Thursday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...Rest of tonight and Thursday am, VFR conditions are
expected across the KEYW and KMTH island terminals. Brief mvfr
cigs and/or vis are possible in isolated showers which may impact
either/both terminals if any showers manage to pass over them.
Surface winds will average 090-100 degrees aoa 10-12 knots with
gusts to between 16 and 20 knots.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...Futterman
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman
Upper Air/Data Collection/Social media......Chesser
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