Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring some light rain to the southern part of
the forecast area this evening as it stalls out. The cold front
will lift back northward as a warm front later tonight into
Saturday with a few showers. The first half of the weekend will
be mild with above normal temperatures, but a strong cold front
will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday with unsettled
weather and colder temperatures to close the weekend and start
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT, still an area of mainly clear skies across
most of the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.
Combined with light to calm winds, temps have dropped into the
upper 20s to lower 30s in this area. Elsewhere, clouds remain
prevalent from about the I-90/I-88 corridor south and east.
Patchy drizzle and fog has developed across higher terrain areas
of the Catskills/Schoharie County, as well as within the
Taconics and areas just east of the Hudson River in Columbia
County.
Areas of drizzle may tend to expand north/east over the next
few hours, affecting areas mainly south of I-90. Otherwise,
limited precipitation is expected through at least midnight.
After midnight, increasing mid level isentropic lift at leading
edge of renewed low level jet currently traversing Ohio Valley
should allow for increasing coverage of light showers/drizzle
to develop (currently some showers developing across NE Ohio and
far SW NY) and/or expand across the NE Catskills/Schoharie
Valley, then expanding into the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks
closer to daybreak. Hi-Res near-term models (i.e. RAP 13 and
HRRR) seem to have slowed timing of shower development a bit
compared to earlier today. Have therefore shaved back timing a
few hours. This may limit any patchy freezing rain/sleet/snow
chances across the SW Adirondacks toward daybreak. Will keep
slight mention for now, but it appears it could be rather patchy
and limited to highest elevations.
Lows will be mild for most the region with cloudy/mostly cloudy
conditions with lower to mid 40s from the Capital District
/south-central Berkshires south and east, and 30s to the north
and west with a few upper 20s in the southern Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...The warm front and the associated baroclinic zone
shifts north and west of the forecast area with the most
persistent showers also north and west. After some spotty
showers in the morning, most of the forecast area from the
Capital Region south and east should be rain-free in the warm
sector. The showers maybe the most persistent over northern
Hamilton, and Herkimer Counties. The question will be how much
warming may occur beneath the clouds or if any breaks in the
clouds occur. Either way a mild day as MOS guidance has temps in
the 60s here at Albany. In the warm sector, sfc dewpts get into
the 40s mountains, to around 50F in the mid- Hudson Valley, so
some snow melt will likely occur over the higher terrain and
northern most zones. The winds will increase from the south at
10-20 mph with gusts to 30mph, and high temps will generally be
in the upper 40s to mid 50s over the mtns, and upper 50s to
upper 60s over the hills valleys. Some locations in the mid
Hudson Valley will be close to 70F.
Sat night...The mid and upper level trough begins to shift from
positively tilted to neutral over the Great Lakes Region. The
sfc low lifts northeast across southern Quebec. Most of the pcpn
looks like it fall behind the cold front like an ana-cold
front. 12 NAM was slowest with cold front, while the 12Z/GFS was
fastest and 12Z/Euro right between the two so we split the
difference between GFS/NAM with timing of cold front. Front
looks to move across Hudson Valley right around 8AM and clear
all our zones before 2 PM. The pcpn may become moderate in
intensity at times west/northwest of the Capital Region and even
a rumble of thunder is possible as isolated spots of negative
showalter index show up ahead of cold front. It looks like it
will be a mild night for most of the region with 40s/50s, except
30s over the southern Adirondacks.
Sunday...The colder air spreads across the area with temps
likely peaking or reaching their max values in the late morning
or around noontime, especially for the southern half of the
forecast area. Some light accums of snow are possible over the
higher terrain west of the Hudson River Valley and the southern
Greens (coating to an inch or so), except the southern
Adirondacks where 1 to 3 inches are possible. The winds will
increase from the west to northwest with the strong cold
advection. Lake enhanced snow showers are possible late in the
day off Lake Ontario. Highs will be in the mid/upper 40s (with a
few lower 50s over the mid-Hudson Valley) from the Hudson River
Valley eastward, but again occurring early in the day with 30s
to around 40F to the west.
Sunday Night...Lake effect snow showers and the upper level
trough axis will impact the western Adirondacks, and the
mountainous areas with some snow showers and flurries before the
inversion heights lower with high pressure building in from the
OH Valley. Additional light snow accums of a few tenths to an
inch are possible over the western Adirondacks, but coatings to
a few tenths of a inch are possible over the higher terrain
outside of the Hudson River Valley and NW CT, and in the Mohawk
River Valley. A cold night is expected with lows in the 20s
with teens over the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period will start with a departing upper level
shortwave trough for Monday, with surface high pressure building
into the area for the Ohio Valley. Although temperatures are
expected to be below normal (highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s),
there will be plenty of sunshine. Temps will be chilly for Monday
night with continued clear skies and lows in the teens and 20s, as
high pressure passes by south of the area over the mid Atlantic
States.
As the high pressure area shifts offshore, a return flow will start
to develop. It will be another fairly sunny day for Tuesday,
although there may be more clouds around by afternoon. Temps will
be milder than Monday, although still a little on the cool side,
with most areas still only reach into the 40s.
By Tuesday night into Wednesday, model guidance shows that a
southern stream low pressure area that will be developing in the
Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast US will be lifting northeast.
Guidance has come into better agreement (GFS/GGEM/ECMWF and most of
the 12z GEFS) showing this system remaining far enough east of the
area to have little to no impact to our weather. Will keep a slight
to low chc POPs in the forecast in case guidance shifts this system
back further west, otherwise, it should be continued dry. If precip
does reach into the eastern areas, it looks to be mainly rain
(although higher terrain areas could see some wet snow mixed in if
surface temps get cold enough). Overnight lows across the region
will be in the mid 20 to mid 30s for Tuesday night with highs on
Wednesday in the 40s and 50s (although this will ultimately depend
on if the storm does impact the region).
High pressure should allow for more dry weather on Wed night into
Thursday. Temps look to actually get a little above normal with a
south to southwest flow in place, and highs on Thursday could reach
well into the 50s for much of the area.
The next chance of rain looks to arrive late in the week, as the
next frontal system approaches from the west. Have gone with chc
POPs starting on Thursday night and especially on Friday, as the
cold front moves through the area. Temps will continue to be a
little above normal for Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal system will stall across the region this evening,
before lifting back northward late tonight into Saturday
morning. The front should lift north of the area by Saturday
evening, as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Most of the rain has shifted well east and south of the TAF
sites as of early this evening. Still could be some patches of
drizzle near KALB this evening, and perhaps KPSF/KPOU.
Later tonight, isolated to scattered showers may develop at
KALB/KPSF and KGFL, with best chances at KGFL. Showers may
linger until 16Z/Sat at KGFL, otherwise mainly dry other TAF
sites from late Saturday morning into the afternoon.
As for flight conditions, MVFR Cigs should redevelop across most
TAF sites overnight as the front remains nearby and then lifts
north. There is a slight chance of IFR Cigs, esp at KPSF.
However, at KGFL, brief clearing will continue through around
04Z/Sat, before MVFR Cigs redevelop. During the clearing window,
some patchy ground fog may develop which could lead to periods
of MVFR/IFR Vsbys.
On Saturday, MVFR Cigs should become VFR from south to north
during the day, with KGFL last to have Cigs lift (probably not
until after 20Z/Sat), while other areas should witness
improvement roughly between 16Z-18Z/Sat.
Winds will become light/variable overnight, then trend into the
southeast to south Saturday morning and increase to 5-10 KT.
Southeast to south winds will continue Saturday afternoon and
increase to 8-14 KT, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible,
especially at KALB where even higher gusts due to channeling
winds through the Hudson River Valley.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will lift back northward as a warm front tonight
into Saturday with some showers possible. Areas south of Albany
could see breaks of sunshine and gusty southerly winds to 30mph
Saturday afternoon. The front will move slowly southward again
Saturday night into Sunday with more rain and snow showers and
colder temperatures for Sunday into Monday.
The max RH values will be close to 100 percent tonight, and
then lower to 45 to 80 percent on Saturday, recovering to 80 to
100 percent Saturday night.
The winds will be from south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph south
of the boundary this evening, but from the north or northwest
at 5 to 10 mph north of it. The winds will vary in direction at
10 mph or less late tonight, but increase from the south at 10
to 20 mph with some gusts around 30 mph on Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rises to around bankfull possible on rivers and streams across
the upper Mohawk Basin, basins of the southern Adirondacks, Lake
George area and southern Vermont.
Periods of showers and light rain are forecast today through
Sunday. Forecast rainfall through this time is generally 0.33 to
0.75 inches across most of the HSA, but 0.75 to 1.25 inches are
possible over the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley. Dewpoints rising into the 40s with breezy southerly
winds will enhance snowmelt over the southern Adirondacks, Lake
George Region, upper Mohawk River Basin and southern Vermont
Friday night through Saturday. The combination of rainfall and
snow melt in these areas will lead to rises on rivers and
streams to around bankfull. The threat for widespread flooding
looks low at this time.
Sunday afternoon into early next week, drier and colder weather
will return to the region, which will allow for flows to
recede.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...SND/Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
907 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
No significant changes to the current forecast. Have decided to
drop the mention of thunderstorms the rest of this evening. Models
keep the best snowfall in the light to moderate range through
midnight or so then gradually decrease the coverage and intensity
from north to south through mid morning on Saturday. No changes to
the expected snowfall amounts overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Forecast looks on track at this hour. A few showers popping up
around the bald spot from Lake George to Elbert county, but
there`s already some cooler outflow developing that should squash
any severe threat within the next hour. The larger scale trough
axis is now dropping across the northern mountains and weaker
showers are becoming widespread along with the developing north
winds. There`s pretty good agreement with the big picture. Still
some question about how fast it cools and the rain/snow
transition, which will affect snow amounts. QPF forecasts from the
models also vary based on where each one puts the showers, and the
overdone convective QPF in the HRRR (the most recent run had 10
inches of snow over Downtown Denver, for instance). While there
could be some localized heavier showers through mid evening, they
should be moving right along and also mainly while it is still
warm enough to be mostly rain. We blended in some new model QPF,
but the story is still the same with a widespread 1-3 inches and
more like 3-5 in the Front Range foothills and the higher
elevations of the Palmer Divide. Some of these spots could be near
our advisory criteria, but the heaviest mountain snows will
probably be in little populated areas of Larimer county and
melting will seriously limit the impact on the Palmer Divide.
Even at higher elevations, warm ground temperatures should limit
the road impacts though some slush can be expected under heavier
showers.
There is a trend toward slower clearing on Saturday despite most
of the lift dropping southward by morning. We only pushed the end
of the snow back an hour or two, but left a slowly lifting cloud
deck over Denver most of the day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Models have an upper ridge over the CWA Saturday night into
Monday morning. There is a weak upper closed low over the four
corners Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is pretty strong
northwesterly flow aloft the rest of Monday and Monday night.
There is some weak upward vertical velocity in the synoptic scale
for the CWA Saturday night and Sunday. Downward energy is in
place Sunday night through Monday night. The boundary layer winds
look to follow normal diurnal wind patterns for the CWA Saturday
night through Monday night. There is some moisture around through
the later periods. It is mostly over the mountains Saturday night
into Sunday evening, then again Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Nothing significant. There is a bit of CAPE over the mountains
south of I- 70 Sunday afternoon. There is also some over the far
northeast corner late day Monday. The QPF fields have a tad of
measurable snow over the mountains Saturday evening, then a bit
more Sunday afternoon and early evening. There is a tiny bit
progged late day Monday. Will go with "chance"s in the mountains
Saturday evening, then again Sunday afternoon and evening. Will
have "slight chance"s in for the mountains late day Monday. For
temperatures, Sunday`s highs will be 1-4 C warmer than Saturday`s.
Monday`s highs will be 1-4 C warmer than Sunday`s highs. For the
later days, Tuesday through Friday, models have an upper ridge
over the CWA on Tuesday, then a weak upper trough on Wednesday.
There is more upper ridging later on Thursday, than another weak
trough late day Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 858 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
IFR conditions are expected the rest of tonight with ceilings
generally less than 1000 feet. MVFR visibilities should prevail
then tempo IFR visibilities developing in the heavier snowfall
mainly this evening. Light snow should last until 15z, with MVFR
ceilings lingering after from around 16z-19z Saturday, and
gradually rising ceilings Saturday afternoon. Snow amounts in the
Denver area are expected to be 2-4 inches, highest around KAPA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1001 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure will prevail into Sunday. A cold front will
then move through late Sunday, followed by a coastal storm
which will produce rain and below-normal temperatures Monday
and Tuesday. Warmer and drier high pressure will then build
over the region mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Still no evidence of anything worse than patchy fog, which will
take until after 4 or 5 am to develop given the large dew point
depressions that still exist. Other than scattered to
occasionally broken, but thin cirriform clouds, skies will be no
worse than partly cloudy. A southerly synoptic flow will
prevent temps from getting anywhere near as cold as recent
nights, and our current min temp forecast has a range of 47-51F
inland from US-17 to 52-56F along the barrier islands, in
downtown Charleston and near the shores of Lake Moultrie.
Previous discussion...
The forecast required few changes with the evening update,
mainly just to show less clouds early on, mainly as thin cirrus
and to open a slightly larger range of min temps from far inland
to the immediate coast. The risk for fog is not as great as it
was this morning, mainly with more winds in the boundary layer,
the high cloud cover and the SREF, NARRE-TL and HRRR showing
little coverage. But with Fog Stability Index less than 20 or
30 and RAOB radiation fog probabilities of 50-60%, we`ll keep
mention in the forecast late tonight. Winds will quickly
decouple this evening allowing for a quick drop to temps with
the large dew point depressions.
Discussion from 335 pm...
Tonight: The forecast area will continue to sit on the southwest
periphery of high pressure centered to the northeast. The main
impact of this will be to promote light southerly flow through
the night. Aloft, a well defined mid- level short wave move
across Mississippi and Alabama, approaching the forecast area
late. Upper level moisture will increase with this feature, but
mid and low levels remain quite dry. The forecast is dry, but
clouds will definitely increase through the night. The main
forecast issue is the potential for fog once again. The airmass
is quite similar to this morning, but there will be a bit more
flow in the lowest levels of the column as well as more high
cloudiness. So fog is possible, but chances appear lower than
this morning for locally dense fog. Patchy fog is in the
forecast, mainly for locations closer to the coast. Lows will be
warmer thanks to the southerly flow, and temperatures should
bottom out in the low 50s in most places. Some upper 40s could
occur, inland in the typically cool spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: After patchy fog to start the morning, south flow
between Atlantic high pressure and a cold front approaching from
the west should push afternoon temperatures to around 80F away
from the immediate coast. Strengthening south/southwest low-
level flow will hold minimum temperatures in the 55-60F range at
most locations Saturday night.
Sunday: A strong cold front will cross the region during the
afternoon/evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures should again
top out around 80F away from the beaches. Also, transport of an
axis of PWAT values exceeding 1.25 inches into the region and
modest forcing for ascent should support scattered/numerous
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, with best precipitation
coverage from Sunday midday/afternoon into early evening.
Meanwhile, models depict a plume of instability ahead of the
front, especially across southern/western counties Sunday
afternoon. However, model MLCape values struggle to exceed
500-750 J/KG, an indication that the potential for any severe
thunderstorms should remain low.
Sunday night into Monday: Forecast details become challenging.
In the wake of cold fropa, much cooler surface high pressure
will build from the north. Meanwhile, the cold front will stall
south/east of the region, and the baroclinic zone/associated
band of deep-layered moisture will settle over or close to
southern counties of the forecast area. Eventually, an
approaching/amplifying upper trough will promote cyclogenesis
along the stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico, and these
features will push deep layered moisture back toward the
north/west. Sunday night into Monday, forecast uncertainty
centers on the progress of the high pressure/associated drier
air from the north and resulting position of the band of
moisture/precipitation to the south. Thereafter, the initial
moisture gradient in the wake of cold fropa will continue to
impact the timing of increasing PoPs/more widespread rain as the
surface low tracks northeast toward our region. The 12z GFS
suggests that moisture/precipitation will persist through this
period especially over southern counties and will even begin to
expand north/deeper into the forecast area Monday afternoon,
while the 12z Euro pushes high pressure/drier air deeper into
the forecast area, nudges best precipitation coverage farther
south Sunday night through Monday and delays the onset of more
widespread rain until Monday night. For now, a reasonable
compromise graduates Sunday night/Monday PoPs from slight
chance/chance north to high chance south. Aside from post cold
fropa precipitation issues, temperatures cooling into the mid
40s inland/lower 50s near the coast Sunday night will only
recover into the upper 50s/lower 60s north and into the
lower/mid 60s south Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deepening low pressure at the surface and aloft will track
northeast across the region Monday night through Tuesday,
producing periods of rain and much below-normal temperatures
across the region. This event will likely produce the greatest
rainfall amounts since 2.95 inches of rain fell at KCHS on
December 14, and 1.17 inch of rain fell at KSAV on January 24.
Also, depending on the strength/track of the coastal low, gusty
northeast winds could impact coastal counties and adjacent
coastal waters. After the low exits the region to the northeast,
high pressure will build over the region, and temperatures will
moderate then recover to above-normal levels mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR at both terminals through 00Z Sunday. However, there
does remain a chance for some fog/mist late tonight and around
daybreak Saturday. For now we have 6SM MIFG at KCHS and 5SM BR
at KSAV from 10-13Z. Conditions though do not appear as
favorable as they were late last night and early Friday
morning.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible as
a cold front crosses the region Sunday afternoon/evening, and
more persistent/significant flight restrictions appear likely
Monday into Tuesday as low pressure crosses the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Light SE and S flow will prevail across the local
waters, generally topping out around 10 knots. Seas will
continue to gradually diminish, and no higher than 2-3 feet out
to 20 nm and 3-5 feet beyond. There is the potential for patchy
fog in and around Charleston Harbor again late tonight, but odds
are diminishing given a little too much mixing.
Saturday through Wednesday: Light south winds will be enhanced
by the sea breeze Saturday afternoon. Then, between offshore
high pressure and a cold front approaching from the west, south
to southwest winds will increase and seas will build Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Winds/seas should remain below SCA
levels during this period. The cold front will then cross the
waters Sunday afternoon/evening, and winds will turn through
west/northwest to northeast. SCA winds/seas should then develop
as high pressure presses from the north later Sunday night or
early Monday. As coastal low pressure develops and tracks
northeast Monday through Tuesday, widespread SCA conditions are
likely, and a period of gales could occur Monday night into
Tuesday. Then, the low will exit northeast, and building high
pressure should provide more benign conditions by midweek.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The impacts of coastal low pressure will depend on the
track/strength of this system Monday through Tuesday. This low
could could produce rather strong northeast winds and elevated
tides along the coast. Also, if rainfall occurs around the times
of high tide, the combination of salt/fresh water could impact
some roads in coastal communities.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Highlight of the short term forecast will be the possibility of
some snow mainly for areas along and north of highway 96 after
midnight tonight...with the possibility of some convective snow.
This may produce a brief period between midnight and 6am of
0.5"-1" snowfall rates for areas along the I-70 corridor.
An upper level low will be moving in from the northern Rockies to
the central plains tonight. An area of rain and storms is forecast
to develop with the initial shortwave in eastern Colorado and move
into western Kansas late this afternoon into the evening. As
colder air moves in after 10PM tonight the rain that will be
in place will change over to snow.
Both RAP and HRRR models are hinting at snowfall rates with this
convective event at 0.5"-1" for a 1-3 hour period north of a Scott
City to La Crosse line. It is possible we may see 2-3 inches of
snow falling from the sky...but given the warm ground and
temperatures hovering around 32 degrees we will probably see quite
a bit of this snow melt. Visibilities issues would be the main
impact with the heavier snow at night...however the roads
themselves probably won`t have any impacts.
Saturday winds will increase as the low pressure moves eastward
and we have a high in the northern plains. Winds of 20-35 mph out
of the north should be common. Clouds will start to erode in the
north mainly after the noon hour and should erode as far west and
south as Dodge City by late afternoon. Clouds should fully erode
by evening and winds will die down as a 1034mb high moves into
western Kansas...and with the cold air in place temperatures by
Sunday morning will be in the lower 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
A certain widespread freeze event will occur for southwest Kansas
Sunday morning with overnight lows in the lower 20s. Afterwards
the long term looks relatively quiet with a warming trend coming
for the start of the next work week. There will be a passing
shortwave Monday morning that should keep the precipitation to our
south into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
The next shortwave looks to come in on Wednesday. At this point
this looks to be mainly a wind maker during the day with storms
developing towards the evening.
High pressure afterwards should keep the forecast quiet for
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected overnight with
a thick deck of stratus across all TAF sites. Snow or a mix of
rain and snow will be possible around the GCK and HYS terminals
overnight. Winds will generally be from a northerly direction
gusting to over 20 knots at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 45 21 51 / 60 20 0 0
GCK 31 45 22 51 / 60 20 0 0
EHA 32 45 23 51 / 60 10 0 0
LBL 33 47 23 51 / 50 10 0 0
HYS 32 43 21 51 / 80 20 0 0
P28 37 49 24 51 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Overview: An upper level low, centered invof south-central Wyoming
this afternoon, will gradually de-amplify into an open wave as it
tracks ESE into the Central Plains (tonight) and MS river valley
(Saturday).
Rest of Today: Marginal diurnal destabilization is underway in
the immediate lee of the Rockies this afternoon -- in association
with decreasing cloud cover /increasing insolation/, lingering
low-level moisture, and very steep mid-level lapse rates (8 C/km).
Weak low-level convergence invof an inverted trough in the lee of
the Rockies and cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern
periphery of a ~110 knot westerly jet streak in southern
CO are expected to aid in initiating isolated convection invof
Denver by mid-late afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts
from the HRRR and NAM NEST have been consistent in showing
isolated convection developing along the Palmer Divide around
20-21Z, with activity progressing E/SE into southeast Colorado
this evening. It is possible that the aforementioned convection
may clip portions of western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in
eastern Colorado in the 23-01Z time-frame, however, activity
should generally remain W-SW of the GLD CWA.
Tonight: Expect showers to increase in coverage from N-NW to S-SE
this evening as the de-amplifying upper low progresses across the
Tri-State area. Measurable precipitation is most likely to occur
between 00-09Z, with precipitation ending AOA sunrise Saturday
morning. Thermal profiles suggest that rain will rapidly
transition to wet snow from NW-SE this evening. Due to the
marginal thermodynamic setup and convective nature of
precipitation (inconsistent rates, non-uniform coverage), snow
accumulations are generally expected to range from a Trace to 1".
Although locally heavier accumulations (1-2") cannot be entirely
ruled out -- such variations cannot be predicted with any
confidence. Expect temps to decrease to ~32F this evening,
perhaps falling into the upper 20s by sunrise Sat (especially in
northeast Colorado and extreme northwest Kansas). Winds will
shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25 mph this evening (~03Z),
becoming N at 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph overnight
(06-12Z Sat).
Saturday: Expect a clearing trend in assoc/w subsidence in the
wake of the aforementioned upper wave -- though isolated
sprinkles/flurries cannot be ruled out in association with very
shallow diurnal convection during the afternoon. Breezy north
winds during the morning will decrease to 10-20 mph during the
afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 30s to lower
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Synopsis... A significant warming trend is expected during the long
term for the Tri-State area. High temperatures are expected to
increase from the low to mid 50s on Sunday to the low 60s on Monday,
eventually getting into the upper 60s by Friday. In addition,
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday are expected to be dry with no
precipitation. Some light rain showers will be possible overnight
Tuesday through overnight Wednesday, but no significant rainfall is
expected at this time.
Discussion... An upper-level trough will form and intensify over the
western United States this weekend before traversing eastward across
the Southern Plains. However, this trough is expected to be too far
south to add any significant upper-level support for rising motion
and precipitation in the Tri-State area. With weak upper-level flow
over the Central High Plains between the trough to the south and
mostly zonal flow to the north, conditions are expected to be rather
calm and pleasant for the forecast area to end this week and begin
next week. High temperatures will return to the low 60s across the
Tri-State area during this time period.
The next best chance for precipitation comes early Wednesday through
early Thursday as the next upper-level trough progresses eastward
into the western United States. However, current model guidance
suggests this next trough will be relatively broad and weak, so no
significant rainfall is expected for the Tri-State area for
Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The warming trend should
continue into the latter part of next week as highs get into the
upper 60s or low 70s across the Central High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 450 PM MDT Fri Mar 29 2019
For KGLD and KMCK sub vfr conditions are expected from taf
issuance through about 17z-20z before improving to vfr.
An upper level trough will move across the forecast area from the
northwest overnight producing low cigs, reduced visibilities in
rain showers/rain showers and snow showers and snow showers
depending on surface temperatures. Drizzle and mist possible
before main precipitation begins. Winds begin the period from the
northeast around 12kts backing to the north around 06z with speeds
near 15kts with some higher gusts. From late morning through the
afternoon drier air aloft moves in behind the trough passage
scouring out the low level moisture and raising cigs to vfr with
no precipitation expected. Winds in the afternoon from the north
gusting to around 25kts or so.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1028 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
Rain showers continue to propagate NE across eastern Kentucky.
Some of these are still not hitting the ground, but others are
resulting in light showers with up to a 0.01 of an inch of
accumulation possible. Extended the low end chances across a
larger portion of the CWA for the next few hours based on the
latest radar trends. Also loaded in the latest observations to
make sure the near term forecast for the temps and winds were on
track with the current conditions. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. A new zone forecast was also sent out to
reflect these changes, as well as to transition to overnight
wording.
UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
A few rain showers are moving across the southern CWA. Some of
these returns may not be hitting the ground, but some of the
heavier returns have reported rain at Somerset AWOS and at the
Stearns mesonet in McCreary county. Did end up increases pops
across the CWA to account for theses showers as they move NE
across the state throughout the evening and possibly into the
first part of the overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast seems to be in good shape. Loaded in the latest
observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps and
winds was on track with the current conditions. This resulted in
only minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. Since most of the edits to pop were for the evening
period, this should not have much effect on the ongoing forecast
package, so no need to update text products at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
19z sfc analysis shows low pressure centered over the Southern
Plains with an elongated front to the northwest of Kentucky. The
developing warm front passing through eastern Kentucky this
afternoon is still responsible for a patch of lingering light
showers or sprinkles exiting the area. Additional showers will be
possible into the evening as the warm sector further establishes
over the area. Currently - under mostly cloudy skies -
temperatures are running in the middle and upper 60s with
dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s - though some of the
ridges are still in the 30s. Winds have been mainly from the south
to southwest at around 10 mph with occasionally higher gusts this
afternoon.
The models remain in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict the southwest
retrogression of the large northern North American trough down
more into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This
evolution will be coincident with a southern stream shortwave
trough moving east out of the Southern Plains. In advance of this
wave a weaker one will move through Kentucky tonight - more
focused on the Deep South. Look for height falls to arrive for
eastern Kentucky later Saturday as the full latitude trough sweeps
through the Ohio Valley. The trough axis and core of the mid
level energy pass through the JKL CWA Saturday night into Sunday
morning with minimal model spread seen for strength and timing.
Accordingly, have favored a blended forecast with the higher
resolution HRRR and NAM12 used for details.
Sensible weather will feature warm sector warmth through Saturday
evening. Only scattered showers can be expected through the night
under partly to mostly cloudy skies and a decent ridge to valley
temperature split. While not much pcpn is expected through at
least late afternoon, Saturday, there will be a small potential
for a stray thunderstorm during the day - limited by the still dry
boundary layer and slow to build instability. The approaching
cold front will overcome the other parameters and probably
generate a few thunderstorms along with the categorical showers
as it approaches in the evening. This boundary will put an end to
the warmth as it passes through the area late Saturday followed by
good CAA as high pressure builds in from the west. The cold air
aloft may cool the column fast enough post frontal, Saturday
night, for the showers to end as a touch of snow, though warm
ground temperatures will keep most of eastern Kentucky from seeing
any accumulations of note.
Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance as the starting
point for the grids with some significant adjustments to low
temperatures tonight on account of favorable radiational cooling
conditions likely setting up a moderate to large ridge to valley
temperature split. As for PoPs, the only adjustments were to allow
for a slight chance through the night and much of Saturday across
the CWA - and also to linger them a tad longer in the eastern
higher terrain through dawn Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
The majority of the extended period will be under the influence of
high pressure. The weather should be quite warm and mostly dry. A
few rain or snow showers may be exiting the eastern half of the area
Sunday morning behind a departing area of low pressure. A dry but
much cooler air is expected to settle over the area Sunday and
Sunday night. In fact, we may see highs only making it into the 40s
on Sunday, with lows that night possibly falling into the mid to
upper 20s. Temperatures that low would lead to a widespread hard
freeze across eastern Kentucky. A gradual warm up is then on tap to
begin the new work week, with highs on Monday and Tuesday forecast
to reach the low to mid 50s for most locations. Monday night`s lows
are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. However, due to the
influence of expected cloud cover, radiational cooling should be
small enough to keep frost from forming. The rest of the week will
feature daily highs in the 60s and nightly lows in the 40s. The one
exception to this will likely be Tuesday night, when we are
expecting mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper
30s across the area. Frost will be possible again late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning, especially in our normally colder
valleys. The latest model blend has some precipitation affecting
eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, but with the latest runs of the ECMWF
and GFS20 both keeping the area dry, decided to keep Tuesday dry for
now. The models have another shot of rain moving into the area
Thursday night, but we will take this with a grain of salt for now
due to how far out in the forecast this scenario is at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period despite a
nearing frontal boundary. This boundary will not reach eastern
Kentucky until near the end of the period Saturday evening,
remaining west of the state tonight and into the first part of
the day Saturday. It will be close enough, however, to continue
the generally mid and high level clouds across the region. Some
rain showers have developed and are moving northeast across
eastern Kentucky this evening. These showers are sporadic and
very light, with very little impact expected at TAF sites, so did
not include anything other than VCSH. Shower potential will taper
off late this evening as we lose daytime energy. SW winds will
begin increasing as the front nears early Saturday morning.
However, a llvl inversion will keep winds from mixing to the
ground, and may create a llvl wind shear situation. Just after
daybreak, winds will begin mixing down, with gusts between 20 and
30 kts expected throughout the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
817 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 418 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a deep mid/upper level trough
over northeast Canada resulting in cyclonic westerly flow through
the northern Great Lakes. An upstream shortwave trough was located
over southern Manitoba with an associated trough/front from
northwest Ontario into the nw corner of MN. Otherwise, sfc ridging
through Upper Michigan has brought light winds inland and lake
breezes near the Great Lakes shores.
Tonight, After quiet conditions this evening, expect the cold front
to move through western Lake Superior into western Upper Michigan
between 06z-09z and through the east btwn 12z-15z. Although the
stronger qvector conv with the shrtwv and deeper moisture will move
in near the front, 850 mb temps of only around -8C will only provide
marginal instability for lake enhanced snow. Accumulations of around
an inch may be possible, especially where upslope nw to n flow is
greatest.
Saturday, expect a more favorable period for LES in the morning with
lingering 850-700 mb moisture as 850 mb temps drop through the -10C
to -14C. NNW flow favored locations over the central and east could
see an inch or two before drier air with inversion heights dropping
to 5k ft move in during the afternoon. Blustery conditions will also
prevail with the CAA keeping max readings in the upper 20s to
around 30 north and the lower to mid 30s far south.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
Lake-enhanced activity will be ongoing at the start of this
forecast period, but is expected to generally remain light with
minor snow accumulations possible overnight Saturday. Although
the forecast calls for precip chances to persist into early next
week for much of the area, these showers will be transient and
sporadic in nature. By Tuesday, more widespread chances will move
through, thanks to a shortwave quickly tracking across the region.
There should then be a brief reprieve before the next chance for
widespread activity moves in as a low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes region from the Central Plains late Wednesday into
Thursday. As for precip types, snow chances will generally be
confined to the overnight hours when temps will be at their
chilliest, with 40s anticipated during each day of the long-term
period. The exception will be Sunday with highs topping out in the
30s, with the northern and eastern sections of the U.P. likely
seeing snow showers rather than rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 816 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
Expect VFR conditions into this evening with light winds. A cold
front arriving late tonight will result in breezy conditions with
scattered snow showers. Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR at all the
TAF sites. The greatest chance for IFR vsby with the snow showers
will be at CMX and maybe IWD. Look for improvement to VFR by mid
to late morning at KIWD/KCMX and by late afternoon at KSAW as
drier air moves in from the west.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 418 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2019
Arrival of north to south progressing cold front overnight tonight
will switch winds to north-northwest 35 to 40 kt gales midnight
tonight through daybreak Saturday. N-NW gales continue much of
Saturday mainly east half, before diminishing by Saturday night.
Beyond Saturday evening, winds look to remain 25 kts or less.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ251-267.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ245>250-265-
266.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ243-244-263-
264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLB