Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Mild conditions tonight as surface winds will be breezy out of the south all night long and a low level jet developing which will also bring in warm air. Overnight lows should fall back into the upper 40s and low 50s. Wednesday should be another breezy day with southwest winds especially for the southeast zones as the pressure gradient tightens through the day the most there. Overall winds of 20-35 mph with higher gusts should be expected. Warmest temperatures of the season look to be on tap with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Moisture from the Rio Grande areas will expand through southwest Kansas during the day giving us low to mid 50 dewpoints by afternoon. The main question will be if there is enough lift to break through the cap by late afternoon. The CAMs are suggesting one or two storms developing along the Kansas-Colorado border where the higher terrain combining with the weakest cap (based off NAM and RAP suggestions) and a 700 mb shortwave passing through. Model CAPE values may be overdone but certainly values of 1000-1500 J/kg isn`t out of the question. If a storm can pop, shear values will favor hail potential and large hail could be possible especially if the storm stays discrete. How far east the storms will go during the evening is questionable too as those areas should stay fairly capped...however with another low level jet developing there is potential for the isolated storms to make it as far east at Hays to Med Lodge. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Rain and storm chances continue into Thursday and Friday. Thursday another shortwave will move into western Kansas bringing a surface low into south central Kansas by afternoon. A strong cold front will push into the region by afternoon as well with winds increasing out of the north. It looks like the far eastern zones of the CWA would have the best chance at any storms as the cap looks to erode best in those areas...however it does seem the better chances of rain will be more in Wichita`s area. Friday a closed low moves out of the northern Rockies into the northern plains. A strong shortwave trough and jet max enters into western Kansas by late afternoon and evening producing another round of mainly rainshowers. By early Saturday morning we should have an unseasonable air mass move in from the north which will lead to colder than normal temperatures for the weekend. Sunday morning we may have to highlight freeze concerns for those who did some early planting. A 1035 mb high is forecast to move through Kansas and we could have morning lows starting in the mid 20s. By early next week we should see a warming trend...GFS is a little more active with a shortwave coming in meanwhile the Euro has us quiet for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mid level clouds dissipating shortly after sunset with mostly clear skies overnight. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction shifting to the southwest by late morning tomorrow. LLWS will also be found around the TAF sites overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 50 77 58 75 / 0 20 20 10 GCK 50 80 56 69 / 0 20 20 10 EHA 51 81 55 79 / 10 20 20 10 LBL 51 80 57 79 / 0 20 20 10 HYS 50 80 54 65 / 0 10 20 20 P28 49 74 55 79 / 0 10 20 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Updating Aviation section below for the 00Z TAF update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Southerly wind flow will usher warmer air into region overnight into Wednesday. Overcast low-level stratus clouds will develop overnight from the west due to the isentropic ascent and weak large-scale lifting from an approaching shortwave. Steady southerly winds and the cloud cover overnight will prop up the temperatures, keeping temperatures primarily above the freezing mark in the 30s overnight. This will set the stage for the snow to more actively melt Wednesday. The models suggest there will be drizzle and rain near the Lake Superior region and MN Arrowhead in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will develop. Not confident on the strength of the winds because of significant differences between the models. The strongest winds should be in northwest Wisconsin, probably 20 to 25 mph. However, the RAP is indicating gusts over 30 mph. A cold front will move through the region from the west during the afternoon and early evening. There should be some clearing with the passing front, so the increasing sunshine may actually cause warmer temperatures than ahead of the front. There should also be breezy westerly winds in the wake of the front. This could be day where our temperature forecast fails because of the complexity of the morning cloud cover, timing of the front, and how much clearing will occur in the wake of the front. Best guess is to lean on the warm side of model guidance, with highs in the lower and middle 50s, except near 60 in our far south. Northwest wind flow will develop Wednesday night and begin a cooling trend for the remainder of the week. Wednesday night looks breezy and mostly cloudy. Highs will dip to near or a bit below the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 An elongated area of vorticity will drop through the region on Thursday. With its passage, moisture will be decreasing through the day, leaving little opportunity for some precipitation to occur. Dry in the afternoon with high pressure arriving. Colder air will be pushing across the area Thursday night, while high pressure is in charge at the surface. This will lead to colder min temps for Friday morning. An upper level trof will be dropping down from Canada on Friday and reach the northwest corner of the forecast area by afternoon. Moisture will increase ahead of the trof and its associated cold front. Isolated showers may form late in the afternoon, in the northwest quad of the region. The trof and its vigorous cold front move through the rest of the area Friday night. Some snow showers will accompany the front, but no accumulation is expected as the atmosphere is drying. It will be breezy Friday night with some very cold 850mb temps into the -10 to -15C range. These temps will translate to cold min temps Saturday morning. The high settles over the region Saturday afternoon and lingers through Saturday night. On sunday, a short wave trof drops southeast out of Canada into the forecast area, with its associated cold front. Some rain or snow showers, possibly mixed, will dot the landscape through Sunday evening with its passage. Behind these exiting features, high pressure returns for late Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 A warm front will push across the area through the TAF period. VFR clouds that have already pushed into most of the terminals will slowly lower to MVFR as the front approaches, and the front itself will be accompanied by a period of fog/drizzle/light rain chances along with potentially some IFR ceilings, but these lower conditions are most likely at KINL and KHIB, and have stayed with MVFR for the remaining sites. Some clearing to VFR can be expected to move into the terminals after 15z, but is only expected to affect KBRD by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 No hazardous marine conditions are expected in the next 48 hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Minor flooding will continue on the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley. There will be more rapid melting Wednesday with the relatively warm weather. There could be some ponding of water in low lying and poorly drained areas, such as on streets. Water levels in area creeks, streams, and rivers will continue to rise as the snowmelt runoff works its way downstream. Additional ice jam flooding is possible as water levels gradually rise. Cooler weather will develop for the latter half of this week, which will slow down the snow melting. There are no signs of any significant precipitation until at least the middle of next week, and that middle week system might not affect our region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 51 32 43 / 20 50 0 0 INL 34 51 29 38 / 0 10 10 10 BRD 37 55 31 44 / 0 10 0 0 HYR 35 57 33 47 / 0 50 10 0 ASX 35 55 34 46 / 0 50 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...LE HYDROLOGY...Grochocinski MARINE...GSF
National Weather Service Eureka CA
253 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Another storm system will approach the area late tonight and Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow along with gusty high elevation winds. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Redwood Coast. Showery weather will continue into Thursday. Drier weather will return by the end of the work week. More rains are possible late Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Light showers will remain possible over the interior mountains into the early evening hours as instability remains over that area. More widespread rains will return across the area later tonight ahead of the next system, an upper low presently located near 40N/135W. The 500 mb low will will bottom out around 531 dam Wednesday morning, then gradually fill as the storm very slowly wobbles NE. The NAM and the GFS are coming into better agreement regarding the progression of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing Wednesday morning, with a strong band of vorticity pivoting NE around the E periphery of the upper low. This feature should be coincident with modest instability (near 500 J/kg MUCAPES and LI values below 0). In additions, the models line up Q vector convergence and upper divergence in the same general area. The HRRR model depicts a fairly well organized line of convection oriented SE to NW that lifts N late tonight and Wednesday morning, grazing the Redwood Coast and spreading N by midday. As a result, have refined the thunderstorm forecast to spread isolated activity across the coastal waters early Wednesday morning, along with adjacent coastal areas near and N of Cape Mendocino through midday. SE to S winds will increase overnight tonight, with gusts over 40 mph before daybreak at higher elevations near and N of Cape Mendocino. Any convective activity would also potentially mix stronger wind gusts down to the surface. The duration, areal extent, and expected maximum wind speeds look marginal at this time for any wind advisory, so will defer to later shifts to allow time to monitor model and observational trends. As the upper low become more negatively tilted, periods of positive vorticity advection and lingering instability will support a continuation of shower activity into Thursday, winding down Thursday night. Snow levels are generally expected to remain above 4000 feet through this event, with significant snow accumulations confined to the highest elevations. Modest responses to rivers are expected this week, with crest levels remaining below action stage. A few showers may linger into Friday morning over the extreme N. Patchy frost is possible over portions of the area Friday morning, but this is highly dependent on whether showers and clouds can clear out. Drier weather is anticipated during the day Friday and into Saturday. Showers are expected to return late Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the work week, with temperatures trending upward over the weekend and early next week, particularly over the interior. /SEC && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing area wide this afternoon with only upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next cold front. Clouds will continue to thicken and begin to descend this evening however conditions will remain VFR for the remainder of the night. Rain will begin to spread across the region from south to north early tomorrow morning. Steady moderate rain is expected early in the morning with MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely during the heaviest rain. There is also a slight indication that there may be enough instability around in the morning for a few lightning strikes however confidence is not high enough to include in any of the TAFs at this time. During the afternoon, the steady rain will transition into showers and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. /WCI && .MARINE...Southerly winds are increasing this afternoon ahead of the next cold front that is approaching the area. This front has slowed down a bit therefore have delayed the small craft advisory for the outer waters until 8pm. Short period seas will begin to ramp up this evening as the next round of fresh to strong southeast breezes occur. The front will clear the area on Thursday leading to calming winds however a long period NW swell will keeps seas elevated through Friday. Additional long to moderate period swells will continue to propagate through the waters through early next week however heights will be smaller. Light to gentle northerly breezes will occur Friday evening through Saturday night before winds become southerly again on Sunday. /WCI && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 11 AM Thursday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM Thursday for PZZ470-475. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM Thursday for PZZ455. $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
524 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 359 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 This evening will see the remnants of the dirty ridge be ushered east into the Plains as the next Pacific trough elongates off the west coast. Plenty of cirrus will stream overhead with some midlevel clouds filtering across the Four Corners. Both the NAMNest and the HRRR continue to hint at the development of an isolated shower or two across the San Juans late tonight but any activity should diminish shortly after midnight. Overnight lows will jump to some 4 to 8 degrees warmer than last night, particularly across the southern and central valleys where many locations will see their warmest minimum of the year so far. Eastern Utah and Western Colorado will remain under the steady influence of drier southwest flow aloft through the short term period as the Pacific trough slowly begins to migrate inland. Therefore, we can expect the quiet and benign weather to persist with not much activity except for some increased clouds, especially Wednesday evening. Additionally, despite increased mid-level moisture, we can once again expect daytime highs Wednesday to be well above normal with another mild night on tap for Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Overall dry weather will continue on Thursday as the trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest, though clouds will continue to increase across the region. The first piece of energy and an associated cold front will drop into the Intermountain West Thursday evening with showers developing over the Eastern Uinta Mountains by midnight. Shower coverage will spread east overnight to encompass the northern tier of the forecast area by daybreak Friday. Models continue to not drag much activity across the south with just isolated coverage for the Uncompahgre Plateau and San Juan Mountains. Given the persistent southwest flow out ahead of this system, snow levels will be high at the onset...between 7000 and 8000 feet across the northwest and between 8500 and 9000 feet elsewhere. The passage of the cold front will see snow levels drop to between 4000 and 5000 feet across the northwest and to between 5000 and 6000 feet elsewhere by Friday morning. The bulk of activity will shift to the Continental Divide Friday afternoon with most showers tapering off Friday night. Isolated orographic showers will persist over the northern and central mountains but any additional accumulations will be minimal. Speaking of accumulations...the latest guidance shows below advisory criteria for some of the northern and central mountains with generally 3 to 6 inches for these areas. Of course, locally higher amounts will be possible on favored slopes, and these amounts are subject to change as we get closer. Another weak shortwave trough looks to drop into the region Saturday night and into early Sunday but for now this looks pretty moisture-starved. However the unsettled northwest flow appears to stick around through the entirety of the weekend and even into early next week so there will be plenty to watch over the next few days. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday and into the weekend as the cold front moves through and temperatures drop back to below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019 High clouds will continue to move overhead this evening and overnight but will stay VFR. Ceilings at KDRO and KTEX are being reported near 10K feet at this hour but they should rise after 03Z or so. Some gusty winds up to 20kts have also been reported across the area this afternoon but they should weaken as the sun starts setting. More high clouds expected tomorrow. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
220 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows an upper low near 40 N and 134 W with a southwest flow aloft over the area. The visible image shows mainly high and mid level clouds over the area, although a lower cloud deck exist in portions of northern California and east of the Cascades. So far the radar returns are rather benign and have not seen any observations reporting measurable precipitation. However still could not rule out a stray shower or two later this afternoon in northern California and east of the Cascades. This thinking is being supported by the latest high hes HRRR run. The aforementioned upper low will move closer to the coast later tonight into Wednesday. At the same time an occluded front will move into the area early Wednesday morning bringing more widespread precipitation to most of the area. This is not expected to bring significant precipitation and snow levels will be a bit higher compared to Monday, but moderate heavy snow is expected in and around the Mount Shasta region mainly above 4500 feet with moderate to occasionally heavy snow between 4000 and 4500 feet. Therefore decided to upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning and issue a winter weather advisory surrounding the winter storm warning near the Mount Shasta area and highway 3 south of Callahan. The timing of the warning and advisory is from 11 pm pdt tonight until 11 pm pdt Wednesday night. However there is some hint that most of the significant precipitation could be just before daybreak Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon. Details on this can be found at WSWMFR. The upper low and surface low are expected to become nearly stacked Wednesday night through Thursday. When this happens usually there is little movement of either one. The low is expected to remain offshore during this time with a series of shortwaves moving through the region. Therefore it`s likely we`ll continue to see showers moving in from the west to southwest during this time and could affect most of the forecast area. In addition, the models hint at some elevated instability Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. If there`s enough breaks in the cloud cover, then the combination of the two along with surface heating could result in isolated thunderstorms. Right now we think the best chance for isolated storms will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening in Lake and eastern Klamath County. Thursday afternoon, the best chance for isolated storms will be east of the Cascades, southeast Siskiyou County and Modoc County in northern California. Also a cold core of -30 C at 500 mb is expected to move over the marine waters Wednesday night, so have included a slight chance of thunderstorms. The upper low will gradually weaken Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation will gradually decrease, but a few weak disturbances will still make their way into the forecast area, so showers are still possible at least into Friday morning followed by mainly dry conditions Friday afternoon. Upper ridging builds in Friday night with dry conditions likely. -Petrucelli Long term discussion...Sat 30 Mar through Tue 02 Apr 2019. The extended period will begin with a long wave ridge just off the west coast. Saturday will be dry, starting off cool but warming up quite a bit in the afternoon. The ridge will break to the east of the area Sunday and flow aloft will become southwest to west. The medium-range models differ a bit in the handling of the ridges. The GFS goes with a flatter ridge than the EC, although both show weak systems overriding it and moving onshore Sunday through Monday. However, the EC is slower with these systems and goes with a more northerly track, as would be expected given the differences in the upper level pattern. The GFS shows a weak front moving onshore Sunday morning from the southwest with light precipitation developing over parts of the CWA Sunday. Meanwhile the EC moves a front onshore from the west Sunday afternoon, with light precipitation developing over the CWA Sunday night. Both keep showers going over the area Monday into Monday night. The upstream trough will weaken as it approaches the coast. The remnants will finally move onshore Monday night (GFS) or Tuesday (EC). Post-frontal showers will be ongoing as it approaches, and the wave will just enhance the shower activity Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence diminishes after Tuesday as the model solutions start running out of phase at that time. The showers will diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upstream long wave ridge builds offshore, but the latest GFS shows a short wave moving through the ridge, bringing another round of showers Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, the EC goes with a dry scenario. JRS && .AVIATION...For the 26/18Z TAFS...Conditions are a mix of VFR and local MVFR cigs/vsbys in isolated showers this afternoon and evening. Showers will occur mainly over the higher terrain, over southern Siskiyou, Modoc and Lake counties today. Also local MVFR cigs may linger in western valleys through late afternoon, including in the Rogue and Illinois valleys. Overnight and early Wednesday morning, rain and mountain snow will increase as a front approaches the area. Expect areas of MVFR cigs to develop along the coast and into Siskiyou county along with increasing mountain obscurations. Also areas of valley MVFR/IFR are possible in the Umpqua late tonight and early Wednesday morning. -CC && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 26 March 2019... Seas will continue to gradually lower through this evening. Another front will move onshore Wednesday, and low pressure will remain over the waters into Thursday. This front will produce rain and strong gusty southerly winds Wednesday and Thursday along with steep to very steep seas. Highest seas are expected Wednesday night and Thursday for areas beyond 10 nm from shore. Rain showers are expected Wednesday and Thursday with the front and as the surface low moves near the area. Also expect a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday as the surface low approaches the area from the west. Steep seas are expected to linger Thursday night and Friday morning, then lower during the day Friday. Weak high pressure will build Friday, then weaken late Saturday, with relatively light winds and seas Friday night through Sunday. -CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080-082-083. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Wednesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ080-082-083. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356. Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for PZZ350-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ370-376. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 A ridge of high pressure that was centered across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon, will drift to the east overnight and keep southerly flow across our region. A weak storm system will then move out of the northern Rockies tonight and interact with a warm front that was across the Plains this afternoon. The feature moving out of the Rockies will begin to increase the low level jet. Initially, boundary layer moisture is abundant overnight, but mid level moisture is lacking. Therefore, any precipitation that develops will be associated with the nose of this low level jet, and strong isentropic lift developing along it. At this time, the bulk of any measurable precipitation will be limited to central and east central Minnesota after midnight. As a cold front moves south across the region Wednesday, some moisture will pool along it and generate a few showers in west central Wisconsin. Again, any precipitation will be light and under a tenth of an inch due to the lack of deep moisture. Before the cold front arrives, strong southwest winds will develop with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely by mid/late Wednesday morning. This will aid in good mixing in the boundary layer, and if we have less cloud cover, temperatures will soar into the 60s. I wouldn`t be surprised to see a few 70s over south central Minnesota where the snow cover is nearly gone. Low clouds and gusty winds will follow the cold front Wednesday with temperatures dropping below freezing for most areas by Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 The long term period will be fairly benign with little precip expected, and an initial cool down later this week into the weekend before warming back up toward normal by early next week. Thursday through Sunday...By Thursday morning, an initial cold front will have pushed through the area, with cold air advection from the northwest and high pressure building in as well. This will push the baroclinic zone just south of our area, which the next disturbance will follow from west to east across Nebraska through Iowa and eastward toward the Ohio river valley. The main change to the forecast was to reduce PoPs for our area with dry high pressure looking to maintain a stronger grip over the weather locally, keeping the baroclinic zone and shortwave trough to our south. Still have some slight chance/chance of rain/snow mentioned, but the forecast is trending toward being completely dry. A reinforcing cold front still looks to push through from the north, but it will come through Friday night, a few hour slower than previously expected. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal for the weekend behind this front. Sunday Night-Monday...southerly winds develop as the high shifts to our east, with temperatures warming back up toward normal. Chances for precip looks meager, with no strong systems expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Followed the RAP for timing 2k-4k foot cigs northeast through the area this evening. They will be replaced by a strong low level jet and attendant wind shear issues. At the nose of the LLJ, we may see some showers develop around midnight over central MN that would work toward Lake Superior the rest of the night. Expect mainly high clouds through Wednesday, the one exception is western WI, where the RAP shows moisture in the 2k-4k foot layer likely supporting clouds from the late morning into the afternoon. During the afternoon, the first cold front will move across western MN, turning the winds to the WNW. It`s a secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air that looks to bring any clouds in its wake, but that does not arrive until after this period. KMSP...Is possible MSP sees MVFR cigs between about 3z and 6z, so will be on the lookout for that. Ahead of the cold front, MSP looks to stay dry enough to prevent low clouds from getting any higher than a few coverage. Any post cold front strato-cu really looks to hold off until Thursday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts. Fri...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts. Sat...VFR. Winds NNW 15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level ridge over the plains resulting in wnw flow through the northern Great Lakes. A weak shortwave trough from nw Ontario into ne MN along with mid level WAA supported a band of thin high clouds through Upper Michigan. Otherwise, there was enough sunshine to push temps into the lower to mid 40s, except for areas downstream from Lake Michigan where readings remained in the upper 30s. Tonight, expect a tightening pressure gradient to maintain sw winds that will be gusty at times in downslope areas near Lake Superior. Mixing and thickening clouds late over the west half should keep temps from falling off too much despite the very dry low levels. Min reading will be in the upper 20s to around 30. Wednesday, Another shrtwv moving into Ontario will result in strengthening WAA (300k isentropic lift) and mid level moisture advection into the area. Since the low levels remain remain dry, mainly just sprinkles or very light showers are expected over the north half where only chance POPs are mentioned. Even with mostly cloudy skies, WAA will bring temps into the upper 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019 Overall pretty quiet with no high impact weather expected at this time. Hitting the highlights, it will be windy Wed evening into Wed night, especially over the E where gusts to 30 or maybe 35 mph are possible. Light rain showers will be exiting E Wed night with little or no measurable precip. Breezy conditions linger into Thu as skies clear out. Highs will be in the 40s. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Fri with partly cloudy skies. More active for the weekend as an upper trough moves overhead and a surface low moves SE of the CWA. GFS and ECMWF keep precip associated with the low almost all out of the area, but the CMC is farther NW, bringing lake enhanced snow and some synoptic snow to the area. Still favoring the drier option at this point but overall confidence is on the low end. Even so if the synoptic precip stays SE, should see some light lake effect snow in N-NW wind snow belts as 850mb temps fall to around -15C and some shortwave energy moves through. Overall, expectations at this point are for minimal impacts, but pay attention to updates on this system as potential exists for some impactful snow. Early next work week looks quiet for the most part with a cooler airmass staying overhead. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 748 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019 VFR conditions will likely prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW for most, if not all, of this fcst period. Dry air mass that has dominated the area will give way to an increase in moisture under sw winds ahead of an approaching cold front. This increase in moisture will manifest itself as clouds with bases in the 3500-5000ft range, arriving from w to e late evening thru the overnight. As the cold front moves closer, cigs may fall to MVFR at KCMX Wed evening. Well ahead of the front, tightening pres gradient and nocturnal inversion will lead to LLWS at all terminals overnight into Wed morning. Sfc winds will then become gusty to 20-30kt during the day Wed. A shra is a possibility at KIWD and KCMX later Wed morning/early aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019 The wind stays below 20 knots through tonight before increasing to 30 knots by Wed afternoon out of the south across the east half of Lake Superior. A few gale force gusts will also be possible. Winds increase again to 30 knots Sat from the north. These would be the strongest winds for the forecast period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019 Snowmelt outlook: Despite warming temps through today, extent of snowmelt remains limited due to low dewpoints well below 32F. May see slightly better melting occur Wed into Wed night as it will be warm and windy with dewpoints rising above 32F in the afternoon. The higher dewpoints, perhaps exceeding 40F for a few hours on Wed night, will quickly be replaced by lower dewpoints later Thu into Fri. So far in the last couple weeks we have stayed away from any large scale precipitation producing systems. South and east Upper Michigan may get grazed by a system on Saturday, but still looks like total QPF will stay below 0.5 inch. Given how deep and wet the snowpack remains (snow water equivalent at NWS Marquette on Monday 3/25 was still over 10 inches), as long as snow continues to melt and run off a little at a time before the much warmer temperatures and spring rainfall events arrive again, we may be able to avoid significant snowmelt flooding issues. The outlook is certainly less concerning now than it was just a couple of weeks ago, though we are not entirely out of the woods. However, regardless of how the rest of the melt proceeds, adding this much water to the already wet basins will precondition the area for enhanced flood/flash flood risks in late April and May if heavy rain events do occur. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB HYDROLOGY...Titus
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .UPDATE... Cold front continues to move south through the area this evening but its passage will go mostly unnoticed... Meanwhile, RAP analysis shows a strong shortwave is currently over MS/AL and is diving southeast across the Peninsula. The deep vertical extent of this wave will have an effect on the surface and induce low pressure off the coast of SE Florida. Shower activity will increase north of I-4 overnight and migrate to the east across the interior as moisture is pulled off the Atlantic. Lows will be in the 50s by the morning. Highs around 70 north to mid 70s south. Northeast winds will be gusty tomorrow. The only changes were made to the marine side of things with adding the bays to the Small Craft Advisory as a long fetch will take place due to the orientation of Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds were also nudged upwards over land through evening. && .AVIATION... Some MVFR cigs possible late tonight into tomorrow morning for northern TAF sites. VFR will prevail tomorrow but winds become gusty out of the north to northeast around 15 knots with gusts AOA 20 knots. && .MARINE... A cold front will continue to move south across the waters tonight. Winds will veer to the north to northeast late tonight with speeds increasing to Small Craft Advisory range by early tomorrow morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated with hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators expected to continue through early Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens between developing low pressure east of Florida and strong surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard. Lighter northeast to east winds and lower seas should return late in the week into the weekend. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 60 73 57 78 / 30 20 0 0 FMY 60 77 58 81 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 58 72 56 78 / 30 40 10 0 SRQ 59 75 56 79 / 10 20 0 0 BKV 53 71 51 77 / 50 30 0 0 SPG 63 72 61 77 / 20 20 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound- Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...11/McKaughan