Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Mild conditions tonight as surface winds will be breezy out of the
south all night long and a low level jet developing which will
also bring in warm air. Overnight lows should fall back into the
upper 40s and low 50s.
Wednesday should be another breezy day with southwest winds
especially for the southeast zones as the pressure gradient
tightens through the day the most there. Overall winds of 20-35
mph with higher gusts should be expected. Warmest temperatures of
the season look to be on tap with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. Moisture from the Rio Grande areas will expand through
southwest Kansas during the day giving us low to mid 50 dewpoints
by afternoon. The main question will be if there is enough lift to
break through the cap by late afternoon. The CAMs are suggesting
one or two storms developing along the Kansas-Colorado border
where the higher terrain combining with the weakest cap (based
off NAM and RAP suggestions) and a 700 mb shortwave passing
through. Model CAPE values may be overdone but certainly values of
1000-1500 J/kg isn`t out of the question. If a storm can pop,
shear values will favor hail potential and large hail could be
possible especially if the storm stays discrete. How far east the
storms will go during the evening is questionable too as those
areas should stay fairly capped...however with another low level
jet developing there is potential for the isolated storms to make
it as far east at Hays to Med Lodge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Rain and storm chances continue into Thursday and Friday. Thursday
another shortwave will move into western Kansas bringing a surface
low into south central Kansas by afternoon. A strong cold front
will push into the region by afternoon as well with winds
increasing out of the north. It looks like the far eastern zones
of the CWA would have the best chance at any storms as the cap
looks to erode best in those areas...however it does seem the
better chances of rain will be more in Wichita`s area.
Friday a closed low moves out of the northern Rockies into the
northern plains. A strong shortwave trough and jet max enters into
western Kansas by late afternoon and evening producing another
round of mainly rainshowers. By early Saturday morning we should
have an unseasonable air mass move in from the north which will
lead to colder than normal temperatures for the weekend.
Sunday morning we may have to highlight freeze concerns for those
who did some early planting. A 1035 mb high is forecast to move
through Kansas and we could have morning lows starting in the mid
20s. By early next week we should see a warming trend...GFS is a
little more active with a shortwave coming in meanwhile the Euro
has us quiet for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mid level clouds
dissipating shortly after sunset with mostly clear skies
overnight. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction
shifting to the southwest by late morning tomorrow. LLWS will also
be found around the TAF sites overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 58 75 / 0 20 20 10
GCK 50 80 56 69 / 0 20 20 10
EHA 51 81 55 79 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 51 80 57 79 / 0 20 20 10
HYS 50 80 54 65 / 0 10 20 20
P28 49 74 55 79 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Updating Aviation section below for the 00Z TAF update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Southerly wind flow will usher warmer air into region overnight
into Wednesday. Overcast low-level stratus clouds will develop
overnight from the west due to the isentropic ascent and weak
large-scale lifting from an approaching shortwave. Steady
southerly winds and the cloud cover overnight will prop up the
temperatures, keeping temperatures primarily above the freezing
mark in the 30s overnight. This will set the stage for the snow to
more actively melt Wednesday.
The models suggest there will be drizzle and rain near the Lake
Superior region and MN Arrowhead in the morning and early
afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will develop. Not confident on
the strength of the winds because of significant differences
between the models. The strongest winds should be in northwest
Wisconsin, probably 20 to 25 mph. However, the RAP is indicating
gusts over 30 mph. A cold front will move through the region from
the west during the afternoon and early evening. There should be
some clearing with the passing front, so the increasing sunshine
may actually cause warmer temperatures than ahead of the front.
There should also be breezy westerly winds in the wake of the
front. This could be day where our temperature forecast fails
because of the complexity of the morning cloud cover, timing of
the front, and how much clearing will occur in the wake of the
front. Best guess is to lean on the warm side of model guidance,
with highs in the lower and middle 50s, except near 60 in our far
south.
Northwest wind flow will develop Wednesday night and begin a
cooling trend for the remainder of the week. Wednesday night
looks breezy and mostly cloudy. Highs will dip to near or a bit
below the freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
An elongated area of vorticity will drop through the region on
Thursday. With its passage, moisture will be decreasing through
the day, leaving little opportunity for some precipitation to
occur. Dry in the afternoon with high pressure arriving. Colder
air will be pushing across the area Thursday night, while high
pressure is in charge at the surface. This will lead to colder min
temps for Friday morning. An upper level trof will be dropping
down from Canada on Friday and reach the northwest corner of the
forecast area by afternoon. Moisture will increase ahead of the
trof and its associated cold front. Isolated showers may form late
in the afternoon, in the northwest quad of the region. The trof
and its vigorous cold front move through the rest of the area
Friday night. Some snow showers will accompany the front, but no
accumulation is expected as the atmosphere is drying. It will be
breezy Friday night with some very cold 850mb temps into the -10
to -15C range. These temps will translate to cold min temps
Saturday morning. The high settles over the region Saturday
afternoon and lingers through Saturday night. On sunday, a short
wave trof drops southeast out of Canada into the forecast area,
with its associated cold front. Some rain or snow showers,
possibly mixed, will dot the landscape through Sunday evening with
its passage. Behind these exiting features, high pressure returns
for late Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
A warm front will push across the area through the TAF period. VFR
clouds that have already pushed into most of the terminals will
slowly lower to MVFR as the front approaches, and the front itself
will be accompanied by a period of fog/drizzle/light rain chances
along with potentially some IFR ceilings, but these lower
conditions are most likely at KINL and KHIB, and have stayed with
MVFR for the remaining sites. Some clearing to VFR can be expected
to move into the terminals after 15z, but is only expected to
affect KBRD by the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
No hazardous marine conditions are expected in the next 48 hours.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Minor flooding will continue on the Mississippi River near Fort
Ripley. There will be more rapid melting Wednesday with the
relatively warm weather. There could be some ponding of water in
low lying and poorly drained areas, such as on streets. Water
levels in area creeks, streams, and rivers will continue to rise
as the snowmelt runoff works its way downstream. Additional ice
jam flooding is possible as water levels gradually rise.
Cooler weather will develop for the latter half of this week,
which will slow down the snow melting. There are no signs of any
significant precipitation until at least the middle of next week,
and that middle week system might not affect our region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 51 32 43 / 20 50 0 0
INL 34 51 29 38 / 0 10 10 10
BRD 37 55 31 44 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 35 57 33 47 / 0 50 10 0
ASX 35 55 34 46 / 0 50 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE
HYDROLOGY...Grochocinski
MARINE...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
253 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Another storm system will approach the area late tonight
and Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and high elevation
snow along with gusty high elevation winds. Isolated thunderstorms
are also possible along the Redwood Coast. Showery weather will
continue into Thursday. Drier weather will return by the end of the
work week. More rains are possible late Sunday and into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light showers will remain possible over the interior
mountains into the early evening hours as instability remains over
that area. More widespread rains will return across the area later
tonight ahead of the next system, an upper low presently located
near 40N/135W. The 500 mb low will will bottom out around 531 dam
Wednesday morning, then gradually fill as the storm very slowly
wobbles NE.
The NAM and the GFS are coming into better agreement regarding the
progression of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing Wednesday morning,
with a strong band of vorticity pivoting NE around the E periphery
of the upper low. This feature should be coincident with modest
instability (near 500 J/kg MUCAPES and LI values below 0). In
additions, the models line up Q vector convergence and upper
divergence in the same general area. The HRRR model depicts a
fairly well organized line of convection oriented SE to NW that
lifts N late tonight and Wednesday morning, grazing the Redwood
Coast and spreading N by midday. As a result, have refined the
thunderstorm forecast to spread isolated activity across the coastal
waters early Wednesday morning, along with adjacent coastal areas
near and N of Cape Mendocino through midday.
SE to S winds will increase overnight tonight, with gusts over 40
mph before daybreak at higher elevations near and N of Cape
Mendocino. Any convective activity would also potentially mix
stronger wind gusts down to the surface. The duration, areal extent,
and expected maximum wind speeds look marginal at this time for any
wind advisory, so will defer to later shifts to allow time to
monitor model and observational trends.
As the upper low become more negatively tilted, periods of positive
vorticity advection and lingering instability will support a
continuation of shower activity into Thursday, winding down Thursday
night. Snow levels are generally expected to remain above 4000 feet
through this event, with significant snow accumulations confined to
the highest elevations. Modest responses to rivers are expected this
week, with crest levels remaining below action stage.
A few showers may linger into Friday morning over the extreme N.
Patchy frost is possible over portions of the area Friday morning,
but this is highly dependent on whether showers and clouds can
clear out. Drier weather is anticipated during the day Friday and
into Saturday. Showers are expected to return late Sunday into next
Monday.
Temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the work
week, with temperatures trending upward over the weekend and early
next week, particularly over the interior. /SEC
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing area wide this afternoon
with only upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next cold
front. Clouds will continue to thicken and begin to descend this
evening however conditions will remain VFR for the remainder of the
night. Rain will begin to spread across the region from south to
north early tomorrow morning. Steady moderate rain is expected early
in the morning with MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely during the
heaviest rain. There is also a slight indication that there may be
enough instability around in the morning for a few lightning strikes
however confidence is not high enough to include in any of the TAFs
at this time. During the afternoon, the steady rain will transition
into showers and continue through the remainder of the TAF period.
/WCI
&&
.MARINE...Southerly winds are increasing this afternoon ahead
of the next cold front that is approaching the area. This front has
slowed down a bit therefore have delayed the small craft advisory
for the outer waters until 8pm. Short period seas will begin to ramp
up this evening as the next round of fresh to strong southeast
breezes occur. The front will clear the area on Thursday leading to
calming winds however a long period NW swell will keeps seas
elevated through Friday. Additional long to moderate period swells
will continue to propagate through the waters through early next
week however heights will be smaller. Light to gentle northerly
breezes will occur Friday evening through Saturday night before
winds become southerly again on Sunday. /WCI
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 11 AM Thursday
for PZZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM
Thursday for PZZ470-475.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM
Thursday for PZZ455.
$$
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http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
524 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 359 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019
This evening will see the remnants of the dirty ridge be ushered
east into the Plains as the next Pacific trough elongates off the
west coast. Plenty of cirrus will stream overhead with some
midlevel clouds filtering across the Four Corners. Both the
NAMNest and the HRRR continue to hint at the development of an
isolated shower or two across the San Juans late tonight but any
activity should diminish shortly after midnight. Overnight lows
will jump to some 4 to 8 degrees warmer than last night,
particularly across the southern and central valleys where many
locations will see their warmest minimum of the year so far.
Eastern Utah and Western Colorado will remain under the steady
influence of drier southwest flow aloft through the short term
period as the Pacific trough slowly begins to migrate inland.
Therefore, we can expect the quiet and benign weather to persist
with not much activity except for some increased clouds,
especially Wednesday evening. Additionally, despite increased
mid-level moisture, we can once again expect daytime highs
Wednesday to be well above normal with another mild night on tap
for Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Overall dry weather will continue on Thursday as the trough
pushes into the Pacific Northwest, though clouds will continue to
increase across the region. The first piece of energy and an
associated cold front will drop into the Intermountain West
Thursday evening with showers developing over the Eastern Uinta
Mountains by midnight. Shower coverage will spread east overnight
to encompass the northern tier of the forecast area by daybreak
Friday. Models continue to not drag much activity across the south
with just isolated coverage for the Uncompahgre Plateau and San
Juan Mountains. Given the persistent southwest flow out ahead of
this system, snow levels will be high at the onset...between 7000
and 8000 feet across the northwest and between 8500 and 9000 feet
elsewhere. The passage of the cold front will see snow levels drop
to between 4000 and 5000 feet across the northwest and to between
5000 and 6000 feet elsewhere by Friday morning. The bulk of
activity will shift to the Continental Divide Friday afternoon
with most showers tapering off Friday night. Isolated orographic
showers will persist over the northern and central mountains but
any additional accumulations will be minimal. Speaking of
accumulations...the latest guidance shows below advisory criteria
for some of the northern and central mountains with generally 3
to 6 inches for these areas. Of course, locally higher amounts
will be possible on favored slopes, and these amounts are subject
to change as we get closer.
Another weak shortwave trough looks to drop into the region
Saturday night and into early Sunday but for now this looks pretty
moisture-starved. However the unsettled northwest flow appears to
stick around through the entirety of the weekend and even into
early next week so there will be plenty to watch over the next few
days.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday and into the weekend
as the cold front moves through and temperatures drop back to
below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2019
High clouds will continue to move overhead this evening and
overnight but will stay VFR. Ceilings at KDRO and KTEX are being
reported near 10K feet at this hour but they should rise after 03Z
or so. Some gusty winds up to 20kts have also been reported across
the area this afternoon but they should weaken as the sun starts
setting. More high clouds expected tomorrow.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
220 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows an upper low near 40
N and 134 W with a southwest flow aloft over the area. The visible
image shows mainly high and mid level clouds over the area, although
a lower cloud deck exist in portions of northern California and east
of the Cascades. So far the radar returns are rather benign and have
not seen any observations reporting measurable precipitation.
However still could not rule out a stray shower or two later this
afternoon in northern California and east of the Cascades. This
thinking is being supported by the latest high hes HRRR run.
The aforementioned upper low will move closer to the coast later
tonight into Wednesday. At the same time an occluded front will move
into the area early Wednesday morning bringing more widespread
precipitation to most of the area. This is not expected to bring
significant precipitation and snow levels will be a bit higher
compared to Monday, but moderate heavy snow is expected in and
around the Mount Shasta region mainly above 4500 feet with moderate
to occasionally heavy snow between 4000 and 4500 feet. Therefore
decided to upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning and issue a
winter weather advisory surrounding the winter storm warning near
the Mount Shasta area and highway 3 south of Callahan. The timing of
the warning and advisory is from 11 pm pdt tonight until 11 pm pdt
Wednesday night. However there is some hint that most of the
significant precipitation could be just before daybreak Wednesday
into Wednesday afternoon. Details on this can be found at WSWMFR.
The upper low and surface low are expected to become nearly stacked
Wednesday night through Thursday. When this happens usually there is
little movement of either one. The low is expected to remain
offshore during this time with a series of shortwaves moving through
the region. Therefore it`s likely we`ll continue to see showers
moving in from the west to southwest during this time and could
affect most of the forecast area.
In addition, the models hint at some elevated instability Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon. If there`s enough breaks in the cloud cover,
then the combination of the two along with surface heating could
result in isolated thunderstorms. Right now we think the best chance
for isolated storms will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening in
Lake and eastern Klamath County. Thursday afternoon, the best chance
for isolated storms will be east of the Cascades, southeast Siskiyou
County and Modoc County in northern California. Also a cold core of
-30 C at 500 mb is expected to move over the marine waters Wednesday
night, so have included a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The upper low will gradually weaken Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitation will gradually decrease, but a few weak disturbances
will still make their way into the forecast area, so showers are
still possible at least into Friday morning followed by mainly dry
conditions Friday afternoon. Upper ridging builds in Friday night
with dry conditions likely. -Petrucelli
Long term discussion...Sat 30 Mar through Tue 02 Apr 2019.
The extended period will begin with a long wave ridge just off the
west coast. Saturday will be dry, starting off cool but warming up
quite a bit in the afternoon.
The ridge will break to the east of the area Sunday and flow aloft
will become southwest to west. The medium-range models differ a bit
in the handling of the ridges. The GFS goes with a flatter ridge
than the EC, although both show weak systems overriding it and
moving onshore Sunday through Monday. However, the EC is slower with
these systems and goes with a more northerly track, as would be
expected given the differences in the upper level pattern.
The GFS shows a weak front moving onshore Sunday morning from the
southwest with light precipitation developing over parts of the CWA
Sunday. Meanwhile the EC moves a front onshore from the west Sunday
afternoon, with light precipitation developing over the CWA Sunday
night. Both keep showers going over the area Monday into Monday
night.
The upstream trough will weaken as it approaches the coast. The
remnants will finally move onshore Monday night (GFS) or Tuesday
(EC). Post-frontal showers will be ongoing as it approaches, and the
wave will just enhance the shower activity Monday night into
Tuesday.
Confidence diminishes after Tuesday as the model solutions start
running out of phase at that time. The showers will diminish Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the upstream long wave ridge builds
offshore, but the latest GFS shows a short wave moving through the
ridge, bringing another round of showers Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the EC goes with a dry scenario. JRS
&&
.AVIATION...For the 26/18Z TAFS...Conditions are a mix of VFR
and local MVFR cigs/vsbys in isolated showers this afternoon and
evening. Showers will occur mainly over the higher terrain, over
southern Siskiyou, Modoc and Lake counties today. Also local MVFR
cigs may linger in western valleys through late afternoon, including
in the Rogue and Illinois valleys. Overnight and early Wednesday
morning, rain and mountain snow will increase as a front approaches
the area. Expect areas of MVFR cigs to develop along the coast and
into Siskiyou county along with increasing mountain obscurations.
Also areas of valley MVFR/IFR are possible in the Umpqua late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. -CC
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 26 March 2019...
Seas will continue to gradually lower through this evening. Another
front will move onshore Wednesday, and low pressure will remain over
the waters into Thursday. This front will produce rain and strong
gusty southerly winds Wednesday and Thursday along with steep to
very steep seas. Highest seas are expected Wednesday night and
Thursday for areas beyond 10 nm from shore. Rain showers are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with the front and as the surface
low moves near the area. Also expect a slight chance for
thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday as the surface
low approaches the area from the west. Steep seas are expected to
linger Thursday night and Friday morning, then lower during the day
Friday. Weak high pressure will build Friday, then weaken late
Saturday, with relatively light winds and seas Friday night through
Sunday. -CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
Wednesday for CAZ080-082-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
Wednesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ080-082-083.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday
for PZZ350-356.
Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for PZZ350-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday
for PZZ370-376.
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
A ridge of high pressure that was centered across the southern Great
Lakes this afternoon, will drift to the east overnight and keep
southerly flow across our region. A weak storm system will then move
out of the northern Rockies tonight and interact with a warm front
that was across the Plains this afternoon. The feature moving out of
the Rockies will begin to increase the low level jet.
Initially, boundary layer moisture is abundant overnight, but mid
level moisture is lacking. Therefore, any precipitation that
develops will be associated with the nose of this low level jet, and
strong isentropic lift developing along it. At this time, the bulk
of any measurable precipitation will be limited to central and east
central Minnesota after midnight.
As a cold front moves south across the region Wednesday, some
moisture will pool along it and generate a few showers in west
central Wisconsin. Again, any precipitation will be light and under
a tenth of an inch due to the lack of deep moisture. Before the cold
front arrives, strong southwest winds will develop with gusts of 30
to 40 mph likely by mid/late Wednesday morning. This will aid in
good mixing in the boundary layer, and if we have less cloud cover,
temperatures will soar into the 60s. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few 70s over south central Minnesota where the snow cover is
nearly gone.
Low clouds and gusty winds will follow the cold front Wednesday with
temperatures dropping below freezing for most areas by Thursday
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
The long term period will be fairly benign with little precip
expected, and an initial cool down later this week into the weekend
before warming back up toward normal by early next week.
Thursday through Sunday...By Thursday morning, an initial cold front
will have pushed through the area, with cold air advection from the
northwest and high pressure building in as well. This will push the
baroclinic zone just south of our area, which the next disturbance
will follow from west to east across Nebraska through Iowa and
eastward toward the Ohio river valley. The main change to the
forecast was to reduce PoPs for our area with dry high pressure
looking to maintain a stronger grip over the weather locally,
keeping the baroclinic zone and shortwave trough to our south. Still
have some slight chance/chance of rain/snow mentioned, but the
forecast is trending toward being completely dry. A reinforcing
cold front still looks to push through from the north, but it will
come through Friday night, a few hour slower than previously
expected. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal for
the weekend behind this front.
Sunday Night-Monday...southerly winds develop as the high shifts to
our east, with temperatures warming back up toward normal. Chances
for precip looks meager, with no strong systems expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Followed the RAP for timing 2k-4k foot cigs northeast through the
area this evening. They will be replaced by a strong low level
jet and attendant wind shear issues. At the nose of the LLJ, we
may see some showers develop around midnight over central MN that
would work toward Lake Superior the rest of the night. Expect
mainly high clouds through Wednesday, the one exception is western
WI, where the RAP shows moisture in the 2k-4k foot layer likely
supporting clouds from the late morning into the afternoon. During
the afternoon, the first cold front will move across western MN,
turning the winds to the WNW. It`s a secondary cold front with a
reinforcing shot of cold air that looks to bring any clouds in
its wake, but that does not arrive until after this period.
KMSP...Is possible MSP sees MVFR cigs between about 3z and 6z, so
will be on the lookout for that. Ahead of the cold front, MSP
looks to stay dry enough to prevent low clouds from getting any
higher than a few coverage. Any post cold front strato-cu really
looks to hold off until Thursday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NNW 15G25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level ridge
over the plains resulting in wnw flow through the northern Great
Lakes. A weak shortwave trough from nw Ontario into ne MN along with
mid level WAA supported a band of thin high clouds through Upper
Michigan. Otherwise, there was enough sunshine to push temps into
the lower to mid 40s, except for areas downstream from Lake Michigan
where readings remained in the upper 30s.
Tonight, expect a tightening pressure gradient to maintain sw winds
that will be gusty at times in downslope areas near Lake Superior.
Mixing and thickening clouds late over the west half should keep
temps from falling off too much despite the very dry low levels. Min
reading will be in the upper 20s to around 30.
Wednesday, Another shrtwv moving into Ontario will result in
strengthening WAA (300k isentropic lift) and mid level moisture
advection into the area. Since the low levels remain remain dry,
mainly just sprinkles or very light showers are expected over the
north half where only chance POPs are mentioned. Even with mostly
cloudy skies, WAA will bring temps into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
Overall pretty quiet with no high impact weather expected at this
time.
Hitting the highlights, it will be windy Wed evening into Wed night,
especially over the E where gusts to 30 or maybe 35 mph are
possible. Light rain showers will be exiting E Wed night with little
or no measurable precip.
Breezy conditions linger into Thu as skies clear out. Highs will be
in the 40s.
Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Fri with partly cloudy
skies.
More active for the weekend as an upper trough moves overhead and a
surface low moves SE of the CWA. GFS and ECMWF keep precip
associated with the low almost all out of the area, but the CMC is
farther NW, bringing lake enhanced snow and some synoptic snow to
the area. Still favoring the drier option at this point but overall
confidence is on the low end. Even so if the synoptic precip stays
SE, should see some light lake effect snow in N-NW wind snow belts
as 850mb temps fall to around -15C and some shortwave energy moves
through. Overall, expectations at this point are for minimal
impacts, but pay attention to updates on this system as potential
exists for some impactful snow.
Early next work week looks quiet for the most part with a cooler
airmass staying overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
VFR conditions will likely prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW for most, if
not all, of this fcst period. Dry air mass that has dominated the
area will give way to an increase in moisture under sw winds ahead
of an approaching cold front. This increase in moisture will
manifest itself as clouds with bases in the 3500-5000ft range,
arriving from w to e late evening thru the overnight. As the cold
front moves closer, cigs may fall to MVFR at KCMX Wed evening.
Well ahead of the front, tightening pres gradient and nocturnal
inversion will lead to LLWS at all terminals overnight into Wed
morning. Sfc winds will then become gusty to 20-30kt during the
day Wed. A shra is a possibility at KIWD and KCMX later Wed
morning/early aftn.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
The wind stays below 20 knots through tonight before increasing to
30 knots by Wed afternoon out of the south across the east half of
Lake Superior. A few gale force gusts will also be possible. Winds
increase again to 30 knots Sat from the north. These would be the
strongest winds for the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
Snowmelt outlook: Despite warming temps through today, extent of
snowmelt remains limited due to low dewpoints well below 32F. May
see slightly better melting occur Wed into Wed night as it will be
warm and windy with dewpoints rising above 32F in the afternoon. The
higher dewpoints, perhaps exceeding 40F for a few hours on Wed
night, will quickly be replaced by lower dewpoints later Thu into
Fri. So far in the last couple weeks we have stayed away from any
large scale precipitation producing systems. South and east Upper
Michigan may get grazed by a system on Saturday, but still looks
like total QPF will stay below 0.5 inch.
Given how deep and wet the snowpack remains (snow water equivalent
at NWS Marquette on Monday 3/25 was still over 10 inches), as long
as snow continues to melt and run off a little at a time before the
much warmer temperatures and spring rainfall events arrive again, we
may be able to avoid significant snowmelt flooding issues. The
outlook is certainly less concerning now than it was just a couple
of weeks ago, though we are not entirely out of the woods. However,
regardless of how the rest of the melt proceeds, adding this much
water to the already wet basins will precondition the area for
enhanced flood/flash flood risks in late April and May if heavy rain
events do occur.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...Titus
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019
.UPDATE...
Cold front continues to move south through the
area this evening but its passage will go mostly
unnoticed... Meanwhile, RAP analysis shows a strong
shortwave is currently over MS/AL and is diving southeast
across the Peninsula. The deep vertical extent of this wave
will have an effect on the surface and induce low pressure
off the coast of SE Florida. Shower activity will increase
north of I-4 overnight and migrate to the east across the
interior as moisture is pulled off the Atlantic. Lows will
be in the 50s by the morning. Highs around 70 north to mid
70s south.
Northeast winds will be gusty tomorrow. The only changes were made
to the marine side of things with adding the bays to the Small Craft
Advisory as a long fetch will take place due to the
orientation of Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds were
also nudged upwards over land through evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
Some MVFR cigs possible late tonight into tomorrow morning for
northern TAF sites. VFR will prevail tomorrow but winds become gusty
out of the north to northeast around 15 knots with gusts AOA 20
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will continue to move south across the waters tonight.
Winds will veer to the north to northeast late tonight with speeds
increasing to Small Craft Advisory range by early tomorrow morning.
Winds and seas will remain elevated with hazardous boating
conditions for small craft operators expected to continue through
early Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens between developing
low pressure east of Florida and strong surface high pressure along
the eastern seaboard. Lighter northeast to east winds and lower seas
should return late in the week into the weekend.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 60 73 57 78 / 30 20 0 0
FMY 60 77 58 81 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 58 72 56 78 / 30 40 10 0
SRQ 59 75 56 79 / 10 20 0 0
BKV 53 71 51 77 / 50 30 0 0
SPG 63 72 61 77 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT
Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT
Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...11/McKaughan