Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/24/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1030 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low drifting slowly east across
Nebraska and northern Kansas. Near the surface, low pressure is
edging eastward across north central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Closed low over NW Kansas as of midday will drift to the north of
Hays, into south central Nebraska by this evening. Increasing
westerly momentum behind this system will continue to erode most
of the remaining stratus this afternoon, and the downslope
components will encourage temperatures to warm into the low to mid
60s (especially SE of Dodge City), with upper 50s closer to the
closed low/cold air aloft over the NW counties. Some W/SW wind
gusts of 30-35 mph are likely for several hours this afternoon.
Will need to keep an eye on Ellis county and vicinity about 3-5 pm
this afternoon, with a Miller Type-D severe weather setup for
southern Nebraska/north central Kansas. An arc of low topped
thunderstorms is expected just ahead of the closed low, with very
modest CAPE and strong shear. Some small hail is likely with the
cold temperatures aloft (-23C at 500 mb), and funnel clouds and/or
small/weak tornadoes are possible from this activity. The latest
iterations of the HRRR have consistently shown most of this
activity remaining in the WFO Goodland/Hastings CWAs, but the
initial development may briefly impact Ellis county and vicinity.
Subsidence takes over tonight, as the closed low exits toward
Omaha. A mostly clear sky and a diminishing NW wind, with lows
Sunday morning primarily in the 30s.
Sunday...A beautiful early spring day anticipated, with a quiet
weather regime. Cloud cover will be limited with a north breeze at
10-20 mph. Despite the northerly flow, most locations will easily
achieve the lower 60s Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
A minor shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft will swing through the
region during the Monday time frame, generating extra clouds and
probably some light rain showers as the 12z ECMWF suggests. 12z
ECWMF would suggest higher pops will be needed for this feature,
but other models are drier, and the pop grids are conservative.
Regardless, no impacts are expected. The extra clouds and showers,
and minor cooling at 850 mb, will delay the anticipated coming
warming trend by a day, with afternoon temperatures in the 55-60
range. Winds on Monday will be light and variable as this weak
disturbance passes.
A broad high pressure ridge axis will spread over the plains
Tuesday, initiating an aggressive warming trend that will persist
through Thursday. Strong south winds return on Tuesday, with mslp
gradients of about 10 mb across SW KS, supporting winds of 25-35
mph with higher gusts. Expecting few clouds beneath the upper
ridge axis, with afternoon temperatures ranging from mid 60s east
to the lower 70s west.
The warming trend continues Wednesday, as a strong Pacific cyclone
makes landfall on the west coast. Continued warm advection will
send afternoon temperatures to near 70 east, to near 80 along the
Colorado border. Lee side cyclogenesis will be stronger over
eastern Colorado Wednesday, supporting S/SW winds gusting near
40 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the week, ahead of a
strong cold front that 12z ECMWF shows crashing through Nebraska
Thursday afternoon. Thursday morning appears unseasonably warm,
with morning low temperatures holding in the 50s for most locales.
As 850 mb temperatures soar into the 20C range, afternoon
temperatures in the 75-85 range are expected. SWly downslope will
encourage these toasty readings, ahead of the primary surface low
expected to develop near Syracuse Thursday evening. The warmest
temperatures in the mid 80s will occur in the Red Hills SE of
Dodge City. The surface low will track to near Hays Thursday
night, allowing a strong cold front to race through SW KS. Behind
this cold front, it will be much colder, probably colder than the
current forecast indicates. Have noted 12z ECMWF crashes 850 mb
temperatures to near 0C at Dodge City Friday afternoon, which
would only support 40s. Have retained the pops introduced by the
model blend for the Friday timeframe, but have very low
confidence. 12z ECMWF has trended significantly north, progging a
snowstorm across Nebraska/South Dakota on Friday. 12z ECMWF
dryslots SW KS and does not support the precipitation mentioned in
the current forecast. Will monitor for future storm track
changes, but feel now the main impact for SW KS will be winds and
wild temperature flucuations at the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Gusty west winds at 15 to 20 knots will fall back into the 10 to
15 knot range by 02z as the atmosphere decouples and a surface
ridge begins to build into western Kansas. In Hays the winds will
stay stronger a little longer but even here wind speeds of 10 to
15 knots will be possible by 04z Monday. VFR ceilings in the 5000
to 9000 ft AGL level this evening will give way to clearing skies
overnight. On Sunday the winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots
with a chance for some increasing clouds in the afternoon in the
3000 to 7000 ft AGL level.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 65 39 58 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 36 64 37 58 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 36 65 39 61 / 0 0 30 10
LBL 37 66 40 61 / 0 0 20 10
HYS 39 59 39 54 / 20 0 10 10
P28 41 66 41 59 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Forecast problems will be when the precipitation ends tonight and
the next chance of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Satellite
continuing to show an amplified from the Pacific into the western
Atlantic. Main focus will be the very slow moving upper low now
going into Nebraska.
For tonight...Precipitation shield/deformation band took its time
but it did expand this afternoon on the backside of the exiting
upper low. It has been light to occasionally moderate rain with some
embedded thunderstorms. High resolution guidance especially the Hrrr
has been doing well this. Precipitation ends from southwest to
northeast by late this evening. Thought the models would be more
aggressive with fog but the westerly winds appear to be strong
enough to keep fog from from forming. Also looks to be drier air
moving in. So kept it for now, and let the evening that this will
be something to watch.
For Sunday/Sunday night...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures
prevail for the day. Temperatures look to recover into the middle
50s to the lower 60s. The next shortwave trough comes through during
the night. This trough looks to come through in a couple of
different parts/looks disorganized. Kept the chances in the slight
chance to low chance category. However, am thinking the models are
overdoing this a little.
For Monday...Above mentioned shortwave trough keeps rainfall
lingering into the morning. There is more cloud cover this day.
Forecast builder temperatures are slightly cooler than Sundays
and that looks reasonable.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019
The upper air pattern will start to change come Monday afternoon
as high pressure starts to take over the Tri-State area. Highs
will climb in the the mid to upper 60s Monday, and gradually warm
increase daily highs to the mid to upper 70s come Wednesday.
Tuesday afternoon we will see winds come up to 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts from the southwest and hang in the area through
Wednesday night. Stronger winds will be located in the
southeastern section of our CWA.
With increase winds and dryer air moving into our CWA we could
see some potential fire weather risks for the southeastern portion
of the Tri-State area Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Wednesday the ridge will continue to move east out of our CWA with
an upper level trough pushing in right behind it, bringing a very
wet and active pattern through the weekend. Rain and snow showers
will start Thursday night lasting throughout the entirety of the
weekend. At this time guidance still remains in disagreement as to
what we can expect for impacts and timing. At this time went with
the Superblend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019
The potential for light rain continues into Saturday evening at
both terminals as an area of low pressure slowly slides northeast
and out of the region. As the low exits, sky cover decreases and dry
conditions should return by 03Z, first to KGLD and then KMCK.
Winds around 10 knots or less shift from northwest to west through
the overnight hours.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JBH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated nw mid/upper level flow
through the northern Great Lakes between a deep trough over
northeast Canada and a ridge from the Mississippi Valley through the
northen plains. A shortwave trough and cold front was dropping sse
through northern Manitoba into Ontario. Otherwise, abundant sunshine
over the region and sw winds have pushed temps into the upper 40s to
around 50.
As the front moves through Lake Superior and Upper Michigan late
tonight into Sunday morning, expect some light pcpn as models
indicate decent 900-700 mb fgen. With the relatively shallow moist
layer where temps are forecast above -10C resulting in a lack of ice
nuclei, mainly dz/fzdz is expected that will transition to some
leftover light snow as the deeper cold air moves in. Although QPF
remains mainly less than 0.05 inch, some light glaze could lead to
slippery spots and locally hazardous driving. The best chance for
higher pcpn amounts will be where upslope northeast flow is
maximized over portions of the Keweenaw and north central Upper
michigan.
Drier air aill quickly move in during the afternoon with clearing
and sunshine. However, CAA with 925 mb temps dropping to around -10C
will keep readings in the mid and upper 20s north and mid 30s south
during the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
Sunday night the large scale upper atmospheric pattern will consist
of a trough over eastern Canada, with near-zonal flow across the
southern half of the CONUS and split flow/an ill-defined ridge over
Big Sky Country. Northwest flow will keep Upper Michigan seasonally
cool Monday, but ridging is expected to amplify over western CONUS
and then shift eastward through the early half of the week, which
will help push surface high pressure across the Upper Great Lakes
Monday night into Tuesday. As this high continues off to the east
midweek, flow shifts back to southerly/southwesterly until Friday,
allowing a warmup back into the low 50s Wednesday and mid 50s
Thursday.
A weak shortwave will bring increased cloudiness and a chance for
scattered light showers Wednesday. Overcast conditions will likely
stick around Thursday, limiting the chances of reaching 60 degrees,
however dew points will rise into the lower 40s across most of Upper
Michigan, helping to melt off some more of the snowpack.
Thursday through Friday night is also where model divergence begins
to muddy up the outlook. The GFS and to some extend CMC are modeling
a surface low tracking SW to NE across WI that would
bring appreciable rainfall to the area during the time frame,
however the EC has not bit on this solution at all and keeps the
precip shield well to our south. A glance at the GEFS postage stamps
and plumes confirms that there is still far too much uncertainty to
begin any messaging, but the deterministic GFS solution is
concerning enough to warrant special attention to this period as we
get closer.
Saturday, CAA behind this system could bring 850 mb temps down into
the -10 C (ECMWF) to -15 C (GFS) range, and with ample open water on
Lake Superior once again some lake effect snow seems very plausible.
Still plenty of time to narrow down specifics on that once things
become clearer for the latter half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
Under a dry air mass in advance of a cold front approaching from the
n, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru the evening.
With the passage of the cold front late tonight/early Sun morning,
expect an abrupt wind shift to gusty n to ne winds to 20-30kt,
likely strongest at KSAW. In addition, immediately after fropa, a
narrow ribbon of low-level moisture, aided by upsloping, will yield
low MVFR cigs at KCMX/KIWD and IFR at KSAW. Some patchy -fzdz/-sn
may also occur for a few hrs, especially at KSAW. Arrival of much
drier air from the n will then result in clouds clearing out/return
to VFR conditions from n to s during the day Sun.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 357 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
Southwest winds of 25 knots, strongest from tip of the Keweenaw
westward will linger into this evening. Winds sharply veer to
northeast to 30 kts behind sharp front late tonight into Sunday
morning. A brief period of gale gusts to 35 kts look possible. Winds
diminish to 25 knots or less by late Sunday afternon and should
remain at those levels as the 2019 shipping season starts on Lake
Superior this week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KCW
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
The main forecast concerns are precipitation coverage/intensity
tonight and potential for rain amounts of over half an inch in
some locations.
Surface analysis at 20Z showed a low pressure center over western
KS, likely one county well of KHLC. A weak warm front warm
front/surface convergence zone, extended from the low across
northern KS and then over into central MO. Dewpoints in the local
area were in the mid 30s to lower 40s, but lower and mid 50s
surface dewpoints extended from OK into parts of central KS.
Temperatures had warmed into the 40s in northeast NE with 50s
for most of the rest of the area. Some lower and mid 60s were
noted in KS, and it had warmed to 61 at Beatrice.
Water vapor loop early this afternoon showed two circulations of
interest. First was over the northeast corner of CO and another
was in northwest KS south of McCook. SPC Day 1 outlook has parts
of south central NE/north central KS in a marginal risk and that
seems reasonable. As of 20Z there was a narrow ribbon of 100 mb
MLCAPE of over 250 J/kg in central KS. If storms get going, and
recent HRRR output suggests it will, then we could see some
thunderstorms and locally heavy rain west of Beatrice, Lincoln and
Columbus. SPC did issue an MCD recently for parts of KS and NE.
Models are then in decent agreement that showers/isolated thunder
will spread across the central parts of the forecast area for the
overnight. Bumped up rain amounts for both this evening and
overnight compared to 12 hours ago. We will then see gradually
decreasing rain chances through the day Sunday as the mid level
low moves off to the east and weakens. We expect mainly dry weather
for Monday/Tuesday. High temperatures tomorrow should be mostly
in the lower and mid 50s, 45 to 50 Monday and in the 50s to around
60 Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Rain chances increase Wednesday night and remain in the 20 to 60
percent range into at least Friday. Rain amounts could be over
half an inch for parts of the area Thursday night. Temperatures
early Friday could be cool enough for a rain/snow mix in parts of
northeast NE, but no accumulation is expected at this time. The
ECMWF is very aggressive with a system for Friday and we did not
prefer that solution for now. By next weekend there is a large
spread in the model guidance so confidence on any details drops to
below normal by then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
A deep-layer cyclone over south-central NE early this evening will
track east-northeast into the area tonight into Sunday. An
associated band of showers and thunderstorms ongoing over south-
central NE and north-central KS will accordingly move/develop into
eastern NE this evening. Latest model guidance suggests that a
more continuous area of showers and a few thunderstorms could
reach KLNK by 10 or 11 PM, KOFK by about the same time, and KOMA
after midnight. Prior to that time isolated showers could affect
mainly KLNK and KOFK where we have indicated VCSH. With the onset
of more continuous precipitation, ceilings will lower through MVFR
into the IFR range with those conditions lasting through Sunday
morning. Southeast winds this evening will gradually back to
northeast and then north with the passage of the surface low
through the area.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Sct convection continues this evening over extreme SE OK/Nrn
sections of SW AR, along an elevated theta-e axis, oriented along
the base of an upper trough extending from the Red River Valley N
to the attendant and well-defined upper low spinning over Srn NE.
This area of convection has been working in an area with limited
instability, and just E of a developing 35-40kt SWrly LLJ
extending from E TX into extreme SE OK/Wrn AR. The short term
progs remain quite variable in regards to the ongoing convection,
as well as whether it will persist overnight, with the GFS/ECMWF
the wetter solutions which maintain the shallow convection over SW
AR and possibly grazing extreme Nrn LA overnight, whereas the 18Z
and 00Z NAM solutions alongside the latest HRRR runs depict much
drier solutions over the Nrn half of the area. Prefer to take a
blend of these solutions overnight as weak forcing should persist
late along the base of the departing trough across SW AR/extreme
NE TX, but remain mostly E of the deeper low level moisture return
along the SWrly LLJ axis.
Have updated the forecast to raise pops to mid and high chance for
SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR for the ongoing convection, which
may linger across the Nrn zones overnight. Did taper pops down to
slight chance farther S across much of E TX, while maintaining
slight chance pops for extreme Nrn LA as -SHRA may build farther S
late once the elevated theta-e axis shifts a bit farther S in time
as the low level moisture begins to deepen. Made only minor tweaks
to min temps, mainly to nudge temps up a tad across portions of SW
AR/E TX as Srly winds persist and the deepening low level moisture
will limit the extent of the temp fall overnight. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast remains on track.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the evening, even as an
extensive 7-9kft AC shield spreads ENE into SCntrl AR and much of
N LA from E TX/SE OK. Thus, these cigs should reach ELD by 02Z and
possibly MLU by 06Z, although a break in these cigs may remain
free from TYR/GGG and possibly LFK at times this evening as well
before filling back in with 4.5-5.0kft cigs. Sct convection will
be possible this evening over portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/Nrn
sections of SW AR before diminishing late, but should remain N of
the TXK/ELD terminals. An increasing SSW low level flow should
result in the development of MVFR cigs over Cntrl TX later this
evening, which should eventually spread NE into E TX after 06Z,
affecting the E TX terminals between 08-12Z, and SHV/TXK
around/shortly after 12Z. Brief MVFR cigs may also affect ELD by
mid-morning Sunday, and persist over much of the area through the
morning as well, before VFR cu cigs return with mixing/diurnal
heating. S winds 4-10kts, except for 10-13kts across the Wrn
sections of E TX tonight, will increase to 7-12kts by midmorning,
with occasional gusts to 20kts possible across the Wrn sections of
E TX. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 76 59 74 / 20 20 70 20
MLU 54 77 59 74 / 10 20 60 40
DEQ 56 72 49 70 / 50 30 60 0
TXK 57 73 54 71 / 30 30 60 10
ELD 54 74 54 72 / 30 30 60 20
TYR 62 77 58 73 / 20 20 50 20
GGG 60 76 58 74 / 20 20 60 20
LFK 60 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15