Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1009 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Breezy conditions with cooler temperatures under mostly
cloudy skies along with a passing rain or snow shower. Conditions
will slowly improve through the remainder of the weekend as
seasonably cool weather will persist into early next week as an
upper trough controls the weather.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM EDT, only minor changes made to the hourly pops
and temps to reflect recent obs. Further details regarding the
near term forecast follow...
As of 730 PM EDT, with loss of daytime heating/mixing, cloud
cover is decreasing with the exception of downwind locations
from the lakes. Snow shower activity has also decreased but will
remain possible across portions of the western Dacks and Mohawk
Valley through this evening. Based on current trends, have
adjusted hourly sky cover, pops and temps. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track.
As of 400 PM EDT...Brisk conditions remain under ample stratus
across the region as we increased cloud coverage with this
update across most of the region. Temperatures have likely
achieved their maximum potential with perhaps another degree or
two as cold advection continues across the region. Some lake
effect rain and snow showers will remain as regional radar and
trends continue to favor the higher terrain and portions of the
western Mohawk Valley.
More of the same tonight, although the pressure gradient relaxes
somewhat, allowing for winds to diminish (but still stay
elevated). Lowering inversion heights should allow lake effect
snow to decrease in coverage. Hires NAM and HRRR suggest a
couple bands of snow will impact portions of the Dacks,
Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills overnight as another
mid-level front moves in from the north and lake effect downwind
of Lake Ontario persists with backing winds. Lows in the teens
and 20s will be near normal, but wind chills will be in the
single digits and teens.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Pre the previous AFD, a broad longwave trough continues to
dominate the weather through the short term. H850 temps
averaging 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal per the
GEFS. The pressure gradient continues to relax, so while there
will still be an elevated westerly breeze, it will be
considerably weaker through the short term period. Any
lingering lake effect activity should diminish early Sunday as
inversion heights get squashed, and a mix of sun and clouds is
expected (most of the cloud coverage across the higher terrain).
Still cool for this time of the year with mainly 30s and 20s
across the higher terrain. Sunday night into early Monday, a
shortwave trough will pivot into the region that originates from
north-central Canada and northern Mississippi River Valley.
Best moisture profiles remain disjointed as downstream mid level
flow remains confluent so a weakening trend should commence.
Regardless, NCEP model suite supports a compact surface wave to
develop well to our south with its precip shield also remaining
to our south. A few flurries or light snow remains an outside
chance as we will continue with the slight chance PoPs to the
areas well west and south of Albany. Seasonably cold Sunday
night with lows mainly in the teens to mid-20s. Monday may be a
couple degrees warmer than Sunday, but still around 5F below
normal. High pressure begins to expand into the region Monday
and Monday night with improving sky conditions with light winds
yet still cool temperatures for the mid-March period.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures for the upcoming long term period will be cool at the
start, ranging 5-10 degrees below normal, before we moderate back
towards normal by mid-week but look to cool down again heading into
the weekend. We enter into a split flow pattern by the middle of
next week with active northern stream and southern stream shortwaves
to monitor. While there are still some discrepancies among the
latest global guidance, the track and intensity of each shortwave is
starting to come into better alignment than previous runs. Thus, we
continue the mention of rain and snow showers for the Wed - Thurs
time period. Read on for details.
We start the long term period on Tuesday with a trough moving
through the Northeast and a strengthening surface high pressure from
the Ohio Valley pushing eastward. Since the trough axis does not
exit eastern NY and western New England until closer to 18z Tuesday,
we lingered cloud coverage through the morning hours. With northwest
flow ushering in 850mb isotherms near -12C to -14C plus delayed
sunshine, Tuesday should be the coolest day of the week. We adjusted
temperatures downward with highs only reaching into the 30s for most
areas which is 5-10 degrees below normal. Subsidence in the wake of
the trough axis combined with the building surface high pressure
should lead to increasing sunshine during the afternoon hours with
mostly clear skies and calm winds overnight. This should lead to
radiational cooling and another chilly night with lows falling into
the teens (single digits Adirondacks/Greens) by early Wednesday
Our 1030-1035hPa high should be in control of the Northeast for
Wednesday giving us mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures
in the mid - upper 40s. Clouds look to gradually increase late in
the day ahead of a northern stream shortwave swinging into the Great
Lakes. As our surface high shifts eastward Wednesday night, we
should see a return southwesterly flow ensue which should keep
temperatures steady overnight in the mid 20s to low 30s.
At this point in the forecast period, we will be closely monitoring
the aforementioned northern stream shortwave in addition to a
southern stream wave in the Mississippi Valley. While the GFS in
previous run showed a more robust northern shortwave leading to a
clipper tracking through the Northeast, it has trended a bit weaker
in the latest run but still suggests an organized area of rain/snow
showers moving through the area Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF has
trended closer to this solution with its QPF field resembling that
of the GFS. The CMC-NH remains the driest solution which is likely
due to it intensifying the southern stream shortwave much more than
than the ECMWF and GFS which leads to downstream subsidence over
eastern NY/western New England. For now, we continued to mention
chance POPs for areas north of I-90 and slight chance south of I-90
for this period. Daytime temperatures look mild enough to support
rain mixed snow showers in the terrain with all rain in the valley,
overnight temperatures could cool enough that mixed showers could
become snow, again mainly in the higher terrain.
The ECMWF and the CMC-NH show our southern stream shortwave quickly
intensifying off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast late in the week
into a notable coast storm and with our northern stream shortwave
diving down into the Northeast, we will have to monitor if any
phasing takes place. At this point, the guidance agrees that our
southern stream wave outruns the northern stream energy which means
any phasing impacts should be limited to eastern New England. Still
worth monitoring in future updates.
The northern stream shortwave amplifies as it progresses through the
Northeast on Friday with a good surge of cold air advection arriving
in the wake of the surface cold front and upper level trough axis.
This should lead to a quick cool down and breezy conditions Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Strong northwest flow will continue to
usher in chilly Canadian air heading into Saturday which lead to
below normal temperatures for the first half of the weekend.
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Breezy and cold weather will persist through 24 hour TAF period
ending 00Z Monday. VFR conditions expected to prevail at the
terminals, with perhaps a snow shower at KALB/KPSF for the next
hour or two. With a cyclonic northwest flow regime in place
through the period, SCT to BKN cigs will generally prevail.
However, some downsloping should result in less cloud cover at
KPOU especially tonight into Sunday.
West-northwest winds around 13-18 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt
will persist this evening, then winds speeds decreasing to
around 9-13 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tonight.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Westerly winds will gust over 25 mph on Sunday...
Breezy conditions continue into Sunday with 25-30 mph at times.
Temperatures will return to seasonable values with partly cloudy
skies for valley areas, and mostly cloudy skies and some light
snow showers for the higher terrain mainly west of the Hudson.
RH values outside of the higher elevations where there is
snowpack will fall to the 30 to 50 percent range Sunday and
Mild temperatures yesterday resulted in snowmelt and allowed
river levels to rise modestly, although no flooding occurred.
Most valley locations have lost the snowpack, but snow depths in
excess of a foot are still being observed over the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Temperatures will return to
near to below normal today into early next week, which should
shut off most of the snowmelt. Some slower-responding rivers
may continue to rise today before leveling off, while other
rivers will begin to fall.
Hydrologically significant precipitation is not expected through
at least the middle if not the end of the upcoming week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Dry northwesterly flow will continue through the rest of the weekend
with an established longwave trough centered across the Great
Lakes. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed a
shortwave trough to the west swinging eastward out of the Dakotas
with several additional waves upstream set to rotate
southeastward through the rest of the weekend. The shortwave to
the west will interact with the mid-level baroclinic zone to
produce a band of light snow that will mainly impact areas to the
south across parts of Iowa and Illinois this afternoon/evening,
with little impact to the local area. With light winds overnight,
could not rule patchy fog development, although increasing
clouds could be a limiting factor for fog. Cyclonic flow aloft
along with steep low level lapse rates on Sunday will result in a
cloudier day with a few flurries/sprinkles possible. Fairly
neutral temperature advection is expected through the weekend so
highs on Sunday once again look to be in the 30s to low 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
A generally quiet period is expected for much of the coming week.
Throughout the course of the work week, an amplified upper level
ridge will gradually translate eastward from the western US into
the plains by late week. As this occurs, airmass recovery will
occur through the week. Temperatures will begin the week below
average with highs in the 30s to around 40 on Monday, recovering
to the 40s to near 50 by mid-week, and likely well into the 50s
for many locales by late in the week.
Precipitation chances through the week will be low. An upper
trough will drop south from the Canadian prairies on Tuesday with
a weak surface cyclone moving from the central plains towards the
lower Great Lakes through Wednesday. The 16.12Z ECMWF/GEM remain
farther west with the upper trough compared with the GFS. However,
either way, model consensus suggests the highest precip chances
will be south of the area.
Beyond mid-week, broad surface high pressure will keep the area dry
late this week into the start of the coming weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Cigs/wx/vsby: shortwave trough scoots just south of the TAF sites
this evening, keeping cig/pcpn impacts south. Another shortwave
moves in overnight, a bit farther north. This looks to bring some
mvfr/ifr to KRST, with RAP now suggesting it could encroach upon
KLSE toward 18z. Periods of flurries looking likely, but not as
confident in -shsn and associated vsby impacts. Will keep any pcpn
mention out of forecast for the moment.
Wind: generally light (sub 10 kts) and from west to northwest though
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Minor to major flooding continues along area Mississippi River
tributaries with record flooding continuing along the Trempealeau
River at Dodge. Elevated water levels are expected to continue on
the Mississippi River, with potential for minor flooding along a
few portions of the Mississippi River into next week. However, water
levels will remain below flood stage along much of the Mississippi
River through next week. Snowmelt runoff will slow through early
week with cooler temps, but warmer temps by late in the week will
accelerate the snowmelt likely leading to further flood concerns.
Please refer to the latest flood statements for additional
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
727 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Coastal trough will continue to drive light to
occasionally moderate northerly winds at the RGV aerodromes.
Occasional light rain/showers are also expected as upper-level
disturbances move by in fast flow aloft, mainly for BRO and HRL.
Best chance of this appears to be between 09-15Z. Ceilings at MFE
should remain VFR, though may drop to higher-end MVFR at BRO and
HRL during times of precip.
Can`t rule out a repeat of last night`s band of elevated showers
with some embedded thunder moving across the RGV from the
west/southwest (as suggested by recent HRRR model runs). However,
not seeing any evidence of this over the upstream Mexican plateau
at this hour, so will just continue to monitor.
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.
.MARINE...Latest report from Buoy 42020 is NNE winds at 16G19KT,
with combined seas right around 7 feet. Buoy is also picking up on
a longer-period (12-13 sec) swell due to the sustained NE fetch
across the northwestern Gulf. Thus, have extended the SCA for the
20-60nm waters until 10 AM Sunday. Model guidance consistent in
showing slightly lower wind speeds and wave heights over the
nearshore waters, so have allowed the SCA to expire for those
areas as of 7 PM.
Regarding the coastal hazards, have opted to expire the High Surf
Advisory as scheduled, as there is no evidence of wave heights
greater than 6 feet in the surf zone, per web cameras on South
Padre Island. Have extended the High Rip Current Risk and Coastal
Flood Advisory another 24 hours, however. This is due to the
aforementioned swell, as well as water levels very similar to
where they were yesterday around this time (just touching 1 foot
MHHW around high tide), so expecting similar impacts as predicted
tides tomorrow very similar to today`s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The H5 blocking feature
remains stationary across the southwestern US, diverting the main
storm track well into the northern plains, and pushing the southern
jet across northern Mexico into south Texas. This keeps our flow
from the southwest, with weak impulses sweeping through from time to
time. These have increased lift briefly, allowing for more shower
activity to form. At the surface, a trough remains offshore today,
keeping keeping the area under dense cloud cover. Northerly winds
continue to push colder air into the region, keeping temps around
60. Models are picking up on another midlevel wave racing through
this evening, with elevated shower activity increasing as it
approaches the coastal trough. Rainfall amount will remain light,
due to the elevated nature of the showers and the speed they will be
Coastal troughing will continue to produce modest northeasterly
winds through the next 36 hours, continuing the coastal flood threat
and rip current risk as wave action pushes ashore. High tides are
currently mid-afternoon, with low tide occurring overnight. Coastal
Flood Advisories and a high rip current threat continues today and
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): The long term period will
begin very similar to much of the short term period. Surface
coastal troughing will keep cloudy and showery conditions across
the region. At the surface, high pressure will move across the Red
River Valley and into the Mid-South region through early next
week. This will keep winds relatively light across the land zones.
QPF doesn`t look too exciting with generally around a quarter of
an inch expected through midweek, especially across the lower to
middle valley with the least amounts in the upper Ranchlands.
By midweek there will be a subtle pattern change. At the surface,
winds will finally veer more east and southeasterly allowing for
warmer air to advect into the region. We`ll need to watch for more
marine fog as moisture rich and warmer air pushes over 65 degree
sea surface temperatures. Aloft, the zonal flow is slightly
interrupted by a subtle ridge axis that will intercept a frontal
boundary moving southward into northern portions of TX by late
Thursday. Eventually, another shortwave will slide east across the
high plains by early next weekend helping push a cold front
deeper into TX. Ahead of this front, expect showers and
thunderstorms to increase. Unfortunately, although a pattern
change is apparent, it doesn`t appear to be a drier pattern with
QPF signals off and on throughout the long term portion of this
package. As stated, at least temperatures will increase back
closer to more seasonal averages.
MARINE (Tonight through Sunday Night): North winds continue at 15 to 20
knots through the next 36 hours with the coastal trough remaining
stationary offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
the Gulf waters through 7pm tonight. Seas have finally begun to
relax some, but remain elevated at 5 to 6 feet. This modest onshore
flow will continue through Sunday night, so small craft will likely
need to continue to exercise caution through Sunday night.
(Monday through Saturday): As moderate to strong northeasterly
flow continues with the strong pressure gradient still situated
across our marine zones, hazardous boating conditions will
continue to start the long term marine period. In addition,
showers will also be present. The moderate easterly fetch across
the GOMEX will allow easterly swells to continue. Surface winds
improve a bit (10 kts instead of 15kt), however, with the increase
swells, cautionary wording or low end SCA is expected early next
week. As pressure gradient and long easterly swells increase by
midweek, hazardous marine conditions will again be likely to
finish up the long term marine period. Also, can`t rule out marine
fog developing again as surface winds shift to more easterly or
southeasterly direction by midweek. Rainfall will be possible
throughout the period as well with the possibility of thunder
increasing late in the period.
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ256-257-351.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ256-257-351.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ170-175.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
The shortwave is tracking into W-NW Illinois this evening, with
precipitation rather spotty to this point, based on radar and
upstream observations. The latest HRRR is indicated a limited
period of snow showers for most of my CWA, and snow accums would
likely be much less than the current forecast if that pans out.
Will be pulling back a bit on snow amounts to trend in that
direction. At this point, an inch in our far northern counties
would be on the high side. At the very least, snow accums look
less widespread than previous model runs. Temps look relatively
mild as well, which works toward lower snow totals due to lower
Updates this evening were mainly to PoP, weather, QPF and snow
amounts. The remainder of the forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Morning model suite has trended a bit north with our incoming
disturbance, focusing the heavier snow axis a bit closer to I-80.
Still looks close enough that the far northern CWA will see some
minor snow accumulations overnight. Have increased PoP`s in that
area, but decreased the snow totals except around Marshall and
Stark Counties, which may see 1-2 inches. A light dusting may
occur as far south as the I-74 corridor.
A few flurries may linger into early Sunday from Peoria to
Danville, but overall trend will be for dry conditions as the
system quickly exits. Temperatures should still reach the mid-
upper 40s, so any snow will quickly melt.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Longer range still looks to be largely quiet, with the only real
concern being the system Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models are
coming into better agreement with the sharpening wave dropping
south out of the Dakotas, though the GFS does not close off a low
over Missouri like the international models. Have kept the
precipitation as all rain, with lows Tuesday night only in the
mid-upper 30s. Heaviest rainfall amounts of around 1/3 inch should
be roughly from Bloomington to Quincy, closer to the track of the
The second half of the week continues to feature a nice warming
trend, as upper level ridging builds into the central U.S.
Expecting mid-upper 50s for Thursday and Friday, with 60 degrees
as we start the weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Satellite and radar images continue to track a fast moving
shortwave over Iowa and headed toward the northern TAF sites.
While VFR conditions expected to largely prevail through the
period, there could be some periods of MVFR clouds and vis between
06z and 10z, if some of the snow showers increase in intensity.
Low level thermal profiles point toward some rain at the onset,
but a change to snow is being indicated in the soundings of the
HRRR, RAP and NAM. PIA and BMI would be the primary recipients of
the precip from this system, with CMI mainly in the
Winds will start out W-NW this evening, then become variable by
mid-evening as low pressure passes across central IL. Winds will
remain less than 10KT for the most part, as they become NE late
tonight, then NW again tomorrow behind the low.