Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/15/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1048 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Mild conditions will prevail for eastern New York and western New England tonight, as a warm front lifts north of the region. Showers are expected across most of the region through in the morning into the early afternoon with breezy conditions and well above normal temperatures. Then a cold front will bring back winter type weather with brisk winds and cooler temperatures with rain and snow showers through the first half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1048 PM EDT...The mid and upper level ridge axis continues to slowly shift east of eastern New England this evening, as a south/southwest flow of mild Mid March air continues to increase. The low-level stratus is starting to form and move in across eastern NY and western England. We have seen it forming first just east of the Hudson River Valley. The 00Z KALY sounding shows a very strong inversion between 925-875 hPa. This stable layer will prevent some stronger winds aloft from mixing to the sfc, as a potent low-level jet continues to funnel in the low-level moisture. The better isentropic lift with the warm front does not arrive until after midnight for the west/northwest portion of forecast area, mainly between midnight and 3 am, and then begins to expand eastward between 3-6 am across the Hudson River Valley and towards western New England. The thunder has diminished upstream over Lake Ontario and w-cntrl NY, so we did not add isolated thunderstorms at this time. The showers will be more spotty and scattered from the Hudson River Valley eastward based on the latest CAMs, such as the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest. We continued to trend the POPS slower. The melting snowpack will increase the low-level moisture in the boundary layer, so patchy fog was added late tonight into tomorrow morning. It will be a mild night with lows in the mid and upper 40s in the valleys where the winds stay up, and mid 30s to lower 40s across the hills/mtns and where the winds do not decouple. Previous near term... Through Friday, there is a narrow window of instability with respect to the Showalter Index below 0C, yet moisture profiles remains disjointed. As this seems to be a low confidence event, we will refrain from mentioning thunder at this time. As for the showers, 3KM-NAM and HRRR suggest a bifurcation of the mid and upper level jets. This should in return reduce the overall QPF which seems to the trend the past several runs. The best shot for showers appears to be in the morning hours Friday where we will have the higher PoPs. Within the dry slot by afternoon, combination of increasing mixing layer potential, southwest flow and some breaks in the overcast, could result in valley temperatures climbing into the 60s for valley locations and 50s elsewhere. This too will continue to increase the snowmelt across the region. Cold front per the 18Z HRRR/NAM suggest the Dacks and western Mohawk Valley around noon, then the Hudson River Valley within a couple of hours on either side of 18Z then western New England between 21Z-00Z. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night... Cold frontal passage is well east of the region as cold advection is underway. H850 temperatures are expected to plunge back toward -10C across eastern NY by 12Z Saturday. This will result in residual showers transitioning toward snow showers overnight. Furthermore, lake effect contributions with increasing delta t/s and upslope conditions into the higher terrain and western New England where some increase in showers are expected. Mixing layer heights and momentum transfer also increases as wind gusts and blustery conditions increase. Wind magnitudes of 20-30kts overnight and especially into the daylight hours on Saturday. Through Saturday, blustery conditions remain with deep mixing and continued cold advection for additional snow showers. A few snow squalls with the lake effect are possible for the western Mohawk Valley and Dacks where some minor accumulations are expected. Highs Saturday generally into the lower half of the 40s for the Hudson River Valley and 30s elsewhere. Saturday night, short wave trough axis is expected to cross the region. However, nocturnal timing will reduce snow shower coverage across most of the region. However, lake effect snow is expected to continue and as low level flow backs around to the northwest direction, plumes are expected to drift southward and may impact portions of the Catskills. Overnight lows drop back into the teens and 20s which will also slow down and stop snowmelt. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mean mid and upper level longwave trough will remain over southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region, and the Northeast for the second half of the weekend into at least the middle of next week with generally below normal temps. Temps moderate closer to normal from the mid week into Thursday. Sunday...Some lake effect snow showers will decrease in the morning across the western Adirondacks, as high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley in the wake of a cold frontal passage. H850 temps fall to about -10C to -15C in the morning. It will be brisk and cold with highs in the mid and upper 30s in the valleys with a few lower 40s in the mid Hudson Valley, and mid 20s to mid 30s over the hills and mtns. Sunday night into Monday...The latest GFS/ECMWF/Ensembles have a fast moving northern stream shortwave moving across the central and eastern Great lakes Region, and southeast Ontario Sunday night. Clouds will increase and their could be some isolated to scattered light snow showers and flurries. The disturbance looks moisture starved and at this point we carried mainly slight chance pops across the forecast area initially west of the Hudson River Valley Sunday night, and then across the entire area on Monday. Any snow accums look light with a coating to a few tenths of an inch at this point. Based on the boundary layer temps, some of the snow showers could change to rain showers in the valleys. The latest 12Z GEFS continue to show H850 temps -1 to -2 STD DEVs below normal Monday into Monday night. After lows in the teens to lower/mid 20s across the region, expect similar max temps compared to Sunday with mid 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations, and mid/upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills and mtns. Monday night...Cold advection continues in the wake of the short wave trough and cold front. H850 temps fall to -12C to -16C across the area (1 to 2 STD DEVs below normal) per the 12Z GFS, and lows could fall into the single digits over the southern Dacks, and southern Greens and teens over the rest of the area, except some lower 20s over the mid Hudson Valley, and southern Litchfield Co. Tue-Wed...High pressure builds in from the Midwest and lower Great Lakes Region on Tuesday, and then moves over the area Tue night, and then shifts east of New England by Wednesday afternoon. Sunny, fair, cold and dry weather is expected Tue-Tue night with temps running below normal. However, the return flow from the retreating sfc high will allow temps to moderate closer to normal by Wed, as lower to mid 40s will be widespread in the valleys with mid 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. Wed night into Thu...Another northern stream shortwave and cold front may impact the region late in the day on Thu. There are some timing difference with the Medium Range guidance and Ensembles. For now, we have gone with a slight chance of rain/snow showers, as temps ahead of this disturbance continue the trend to normal to slightly above normal readings. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front will approach from the south overnight with some showers. The cold front to the system will move through tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. VFR conditions will quickly lower to MVFR cigs with increasing low-level moisture ahead of a warm front. Cigs will lower from mid and high level clouds to MVFR stratus of 1.5-2.5 kft AGL with increasing south to southeast flow between 02Z-06Z/FRI at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Also, a strong low-level jet with winds of 35-50 kts at 2 kft AGL will impact the TAF sites tonight through most of tomorrow morning. LLWS groups were continued at KGFL/PSF/KPOU and added to KALB early this evening and kept going through the overnight. Expect widespread low MVFR and even some IFR cigs to impact the TAF sites with showers between 12Z-16Z. VCSH groups were used generally between 09Z-12Z/FRI. The best chance for IFR cigs looks like KPOU/KPSF between 12Z-16Z/FRI. We may have to add lower cigs at KALB/KGFL later. The question will be how quickly the cigs increase to VFR levels tomorrow afternoon. We forecasted a little closer to the NAM sounding and moisture profiles keeping the cigs at MVFR or low VFR levels in the late morning into the early/mid afternoon. After 20-21Z for all the TAF sites we increased cigs to 3.5-4.5 kft AGL with the winds increasing from the southwest to west. The wind tonight will be from the south to southeast at 8-13 kts at KALB/KPSF with some gusts around 20 kts. KGFL/KPOU will see the sfc winds decouple and be light from the south/southeast at 5 kts or less. The low-level wind shear groups were kept until 15-17Z/FRI at KPOU/KGFL/KPSF...and at Albany until 13Z/FRI. The winds will increase from the south to southwest at 10-16 kts in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts around 25 kts at KALB/KPSF. The winds will shift more to the west at KGFL/KALB at 9-15 kts with some gusts around 20-25 kts with the cold frontal passage around 20-21Z/FRI. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Outside some locations in the mid Hudson Valley, we have snow on the ground with deep snowpack across the higher terrain. Temperatures will be mild through Friday with a return to below normal readings over the weekend into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers are expected Friday, mainly in the morning. && .HYDROLOGY... We will have a period of mild temperatures through Friday with temperatures well above normal which will lead to snowmelt. There is uncertainty to how much melt and runoff there will be. Scattered to numerous showers are expected Friday, mainly in the morning, however QPF amounts are expected to be light generally less than a quarter of an inch. Higher amounts of a quarter of an inch to possibly a half inch are expected across the western Adirondacks. The combination of runoff from snow melt and rainfall will lead to rises on rivers and streams, but it`s not expected to be enough to cause rivers to reach or exceed flood stage per latest guidance and coordination from NERFC. There is the possibility flow could be great enough to cause to ice to move/break up which could lead to localized ice jam flooding. Confidence is not high enough at this time to issue a flood watch. Colder air will be ushered in Friday night with temperatures expected to drop into the mid 20s to upper 30s slowing and even stopping the melt. As we look ahead into early next week, below normal temperatures will limit any snowmelt with highs only in the upper 20s to lower 40s. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
959 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will come through the region on Friday bringing with it some showers. This will be followed by another cold frontal passage this weekend with some scattered rain and snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With the evening updates, Some minor adjustments were made on the timing of the showers coming in overnight. Still on track for the showers to become more likely after midnight from west to east. A strong low pressure system will continue to track through the Great Lakes and bring a cold front through the area on Friday. CLouds will continue to increase ahead of the cold front with increasing southerly winds. The clouds and winds should keep temperatures up in the upper 40`s and low 50`s tonight. A fairly good model agreement is in place between the Hi-res NAM and HRRR bringing in showers just after midnight in the Finger Lakes then further eastward as the overnight goes on. Rainfall looks rather light from this system given the main low pressure system will be well northwest of our region. Modeling however has different outcomes with regards to clearing behind the front. The GFS is much quicker clearing the system than the NAM. Quicker clearing would allow for more mixing and the potential for stronger westerly wind gusts throughout the day. This forecast is between the two extremes at this point with morning clearing/ showers ending and also showing the potential for some 20 mph wind gusts. High temperatures once again should get well into the 50`s and perhaps low 60`s before the cold frontal passage. After the cold front passes through temperatures should fall off quick into the 30`s by Saturday morning. Scattered rain and snow showers with the aid of northwesterly flow and moisture off the Great Lakes will be present as well Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 pm update... A fairly quiet period with below normal temperatures and a few showers. Total snow accumulations will be under 2 inches and mostly across the higher terrain of CNY Saturday night. For the entire period under an upper level trough. For Saturday and Saturday night the area is under cold air advection and northwest low level flow. A short wave goes through in the afternoon providing some lift. Surface temperatures are warm enough for a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon. High temperatures from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Saturday night and Sunday the forcing wanes. Moisture levels lower. The low level flow shifts from 280 to 300. This keeps the best shower coverage in the Syracuse area. On Saturday chances for showers best from the Finger Lakes to the western Mohawk Valley and Tug. Saturday night the showers are mostly in the eastern Finger Lakes to the upper Susquehanna Region. Sunday morning just some flurries before ending. Saturday night low temperatures around 20. This is about 5 degrees below normal. Sunday highs in the 30s which is about 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another shortwave starting to track through the area Sunday night will spread snow showers throughout the rest of the area Sunday night through Monday, especially across NE PA and the Southern Tier. High pressure begins to build in, though, and will help to dry things out Monday evening with sunny and dry conditions through Tuesday. Models continue to bring in another system Wednesday through Thursday, with the possibility of rain/snow showers starting as early as Wednesday afternoon - though there continues to be quite a bit of disagreement on the timing with this next system. Therefore, will keep rain/snow chances in Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, finally wrapping up Thursday evening with the passing cold front. As for temperatures, we`re looking to stay more or less seasonal through the long term. Low temperatures start generally in the teens and 20s Monday through Thursday, with highs in the 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR this evening then ceilings forming and likely becoming MVFR with some showers overnight. The MVFR ceilings are more conditional and uncertain at KSYR, KELM and KITH. Showers look to start around 06Z from SYR to KELM and closer to 8Z or so around KBGM. Showers will end from west to east from about 10-15Z Friday. Southeast winds overnight around 15 knots will become more westerly on Friday. LLWS is expected at all TAF sites till around 12-15Z Friday. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...Possible restrictions with rain changing to snow showers; mainly NY terminals. Sunday...Becoming VFR. Sunday night and Monday...Possible restrictions in snow showers. Tuesday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
916 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Offshore high pressure will direct a southerly flow into the forecast area overnight. An approaching cold front will move through the area Friday afternoon and evening. It will be breezy ahead of the front Friday. The front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. It will be dry and cooler behind the front for Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Moisture should remain shallow overnight because of the lingering effects of upper ridging. The main frontal forcing will remain west of the area. The HRRR keeps showers west of the area through sunrise. It will be a mild night as low-level warm advection on southerly winds and mostly cloudy skies will keep minimum temps 15+ degrees above normal. Many places will not drop below 60. Mixing should help prevent fog. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday and Friday Night...The strong winter storm currently impacting the middle of the country will send a cold front through the region on Friday. The day should start out mostly dry and compressional heating ahead of the front will allow the area to warm into the mid 70s in the west and low 80s east. Breezy southwest winds can also be expected ahead of the front. The front is expected to cross the region during the afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms, but convection could begin developing late morning across the northwest CWA. Although the area is not currently outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center, there is the potential for a few storms to become strong or even severe given good vertical shear profiles and the presence of a 45-50kt 850mb jet. The limiting factor could be reduced instability due to considerable cloud cover ahead of the front. The front will move through quickly and any lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will be limited to mainly the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA Friday evening, then will shift east out of the area as drier air filters in behind the front. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Saturday and Saturday Night...Surface high pressure will build over the area, with fairly light northerly winds and a dry airmass in place. Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and nighttime lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period will be mostly cool and dry. An upper level trough that will prevail over the eastern U.S., with the passage of several shortwaves causing the upper trough to dig deeper at times, especially late Monday/early Tuesday then again on Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will be limited, so kept the forecast dry for now, but cannot rule out a few showers with the stronger shortwaves. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s during the day and the mid 30s to low 40s at night. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions through 10Z. MVFR conditions possible Friday. A warm and moist southerly flow will hold across the region overnight between high pressure off the coast and an approaching cold front to our west. Models indicated VFR conditions through 10Z with sct/bkn stratocumulus clouds above 3000 feet agl. Have also included LLWS as a 35-40 knot low level jet sets up across the area 05Z-15Z. After 15Z southwest winds increase 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for MVFR cigs after 10Z as low level moisture increases just ahead of the cold front. Could also see scattered showers develop by late morning, but the best chance for convection will be in the 17Z-22Z time- frame. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. The front will be east of the TAF sites around the end of the period with winds veering west and precip moving east. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to aviation expected through Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A potent storm will track up through the central Great Lakes tonight, dragging a cold front across central Pennsylvania on Friday. Cooler and windy conditions will follow for Friday afternoon and Saturday. Diminishing wind and dry conditions will occur on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Radar loop at 0130Z shows a solid line of showers entering northwest Pa along axis of low level jet. The cold front is still back in western Ohio and is progged to push into the western part of the forecast area late tonight. Linear extrapolation of radar returns and latest HRRR support near 100 pct POPS late this evening across Warren/Mckean counties. Parent shortwave will be weakening overnight and lifting northeast, rather than east, so expect band of frontal showers to dwindle late tonight as it enters the central mountains. Models erode stability in the increasingly moist airmass ahead of the approaching front, so a rumble of thunder would not be a big surprise as convection pushes into the forecast area. Increasing southerly flow and cloudcover ahead of the cold front will make for a very mild overnight. Lows generally in the 50s will be some 20-25 deg warmer than they should be for the last week of winter. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The slowing cold front will move through the eastern part of the forecast area during the late morning and afternoon, accompanied by scattered showers and even a possible rumble of thunder. Models still showing a bit of pre-frontal cape through early afternoon, but weakening forcing in vicinity of slowing front. The front and associated threat of showers may not clear southern York/Lancaster counties until around 21Z. Surface ridging and much drier air behind the front is expected to result in clearing skies spreading southeast across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours. Model soundings indicate mixing to 850mb behind the front, supporting highs well into the 60s over the central part of the forecast area and possibly into the low 70s over the southeast. After a mild start, readings across the northwest mountains are likely to fall through the 40s during the afternoon. Vertical mixing depth up to 5000ft will help support some wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range all day across the western counties and spreading into the southeast counties by afternoon. Increasing clouds and the chance of showers will spread into the northwest mountains during the afternoon hours in association with approaching upper trough over the Grt Lks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... *Noticeably cooler and chilly weekend with lake effect snow *Dry wx pattern with near to below avg temps Mon-Wed Not a lot of change to this portion of the fcst package. Still looks like a dry slot later Friday afternoon into the early evening, before secondary push of colder air works in late Friday night into Saturday. I did adjust the weather grids some, but mainly looking at small amts of snow. Went with mainly dry conditions on Sunday. For Monday and again later Wednesday into Thursday, some small chance of a snow and rain showers. Overall, a welcome change to a drier pattern. More detail below. A fresh wave of cooler, drier air will arrive by the weekend. 24hr maxT changes Fri to Sat will be a rather noticeable -20 to -30 degrees (colder). A gusty west northwest wind 25-35mph will add to the chill with lake effect snow showers bringing a coating to some parts of the Alleghenies Fri night into Saturday. Despite some variability, the overall wx pattern should feature mainly dry conditions with near to below avg temps Mon-Wed. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A potent storm will track west of the state Friday. This will bring showers and lowering conditions into the NW later this evening, spreading eastward overnight and early Friday ahead and along the cold front. A thunderstorm will be possible as the cold front crosses the flying area late tonight and early Friday. Another concern will be LLWS out ahead of this approaching system as strong winds just off the deck begin to develop over the flying area. The showers will bring occasional MVFR/isolated IFR conditions for a few hours from the NW to the SE between about 09-15Z. After frontal passage Friday morning expect improving conditions. A gusty WSW wind will develop by Friday afternoon, in the 25-30kt range at most terminals. Cooler but mainly dry conditions will follow for the weekend into next week, with restrictions likely over the NW mountains. Outlook... Sat...Breezy. Restrictions with scattered rain/snow showers NW. No sig wx elsewhere. Sun-Tue...No sig weather. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin/Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
800 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .AVIATION... Corridor of 1000-500mb height falls and initial cold advection in the 1.5 to 4.5 kft agl layer is currently supporting a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast Michigan. Extreme shear setup with modest late day instability recovery led to embedded supercell thunderstorms that resulted in reported tornado activity. Warm advection and moisture transport is strong enough to maintain a potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat of straight line winds to the east of the current line/through all of the cwa. Latest extrapolation supports the thunderstorms ending at all terminals by 02Z. The focus will then shift late this evening to the potential for strong west flow in the wake of the cold front. Cold advection with steep low level lapse rates will support winds to 40 knots. Models support a deep mixed layer to 4.0 kft agl in the presence of strong, deep environmental wind profile. Low level wrap around moisture and diurnal minimum suggests weakening winds at/around 09Z tonight. Secondary shortwave energy lifting northward under jet impulse aloft will support an area of light rain or drizzle beginning around 16Z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for rain as precipitation type. * High for thunderstorms early evening. * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less late overnight through Friday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 DISCUSSION... Not much has changed from this mornings thoughts/updated afd. Southeast Michigan remains devoid of surface based instability as of 3 PM (per SPC mesoscale analysis) as elevated widespread showers have tracked through and kept temps below 60 degrees (thus far). Subsequently, gradient winds have been subdued with the surface based inversion persisting. Main mid level circulation/cold pool (-23 C at 500 MB) tracking into far southern Wisconsin late today, with cold front moving through southeast Michigan 23-2Z, and thus still a short window to recover before sunset, as latest RAP still indicating MLCAPES reaching around 500 J/kg which could be just enough to generate low topped supercells with the strong low level wind fields in place. Still, bulk of the hires solutions are fairly muted with the activity moving through southeast Michigan. Cold advection then kicks in late this evening, and continuing through the day tomorrow, with the increasing boundary layer depths offset by the decreasing wind fields should keep gusts mostly aob 40 MPH, but still have 50 knots of flow at 850 MB at 9z Friday. Initial post front surge late this evening with about 20 MB rise/fall pressure couplet, so not out of the question to get brief wind pop to 45 mph but not planning on issuing an advisory. With trough axis/height falls swinging through Central Great Lakes Friday evening and 850 MB temps lowering to around -10 C, numerous to widespread rain/snow showers appear likely as low level lapse rates ramp up during the day and surface based capes reach around 50 J/kg by early evening. Slow loss of daytime instability will allow activity to dwindle Friday night, despite some continued cold advection (negative lower teens at 850 MB), but not enough to get much Lake Michigan activity going with inversion heights under 5 kft. However, cold advection will likely be able to sustain brisk northwest winds through the night. Re-enforcing shot of cold air, secondary trough axis to swing through on Saturday. This will assure cold and cloudy conditions during the day, as both GFS and NAM indicating saturation at 850 MB. Cape/cloud depths look shallow in the 4-6 kft foot layer per NAM soundings, but do reside in the DGZ. Will at least introduce a chance of flurries to account for some activity as highs hold in the 30s. For the majority of the extended forecast period going into next week, conditions look to remain dry with only a couple of chances for precipitation. High pressure will continue to influence the region for much of the period, with the exception for some scattered rain/snow showers Sunday afternoon. The only other period a this time that is looking at chances for rain/snow is on Wednesday. High temperatures will continue to slowly warm through the 40s towards the end of next week with lows still below freezing at night. MARINE... A strong low pressure system continues moving through the Midwest and northern Great Lakes tonight while drawing very mild air northward across the central Great Lakes. This relatively warm air passing over the cold, mostly icy lakes, results in strong stability and limits wind gust potential to 25 to 30 knot range until passage of the associated cold front. A few gusts near gales are possible post front in the southwest flow tonight across all marine areas and then again in northwest flow later Friday and Friday night over the north third of Lake Huron. Colder air gradually takes hold during this time and leads to deeper mixing in stronger pressure gradient. Similar conditions persist into Saturday over northern Lake Huron before high pressure builds into the region. Weak high pressure holds through Sunday as equally weak low pressure system move through northern Ontario and through the Ohio valley. HYDROLOGY... A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Tri Cities area through Friday morning for potential flooding due to a combination of heavy rain and melting snow/ice. The runoff of rainfall and melting snow will bring rises in area streams and rivers resulting in potential flooding of prone areas. This will be especially true within the Tittabawassee River basin over central Lower Michigan where the snow pack contains the moist liquid. So, despite the relatively low rainfall totals, the Tittabawassee (and in turn Saginaw) Rivers are forecast to approach flood stage this weekend. Some ice breakup will likely occur within other area rivers as well due to the warmer weather and rainfall. This will lead to an increased chance of ice blockages and flooding in prone areas. The potential for flooding remains driven by a strong storm system moving across the Midwest and northern Great Lakes that is drawing very mild air into the region. This supports showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the evening followed by passage of an associated cold front. Overall rainfall accumulations around a half inch are expected before the system exits the region tonight. Rainy and cooler conditions continue through Friday but with minimal additional rainfall. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MIZ047-048-053. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SF/SP MARINE.......BT HYDROLOGY....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
937 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms return to the area through the end of the work week as a cold front moves through the area. Dry conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds in, and cooler temperatures are expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Thursday: No major changes to the forecast with the late evening update. Convection across GA is bringing its own environment slowly east, but modifying as it does so, with the RAP not wanting to develop any surface-based instability in our area ahead of the front...though some minimal instability may move in after 06z with the front itself. HRRR still hinting at some slightly more intense cells that may be SPS-worthy overnight. Otherwise, expect a very mild night, with min temps in the 50s mountains to lower 60s piedmont given abundant cloudiness east of the approaching front. The surface cold front should move through the western mountains around daybreak, cross the foothills through the late morning hours, and then move east of I-77 during the afternoon hours. Shear appears rather unidirectional across the region through the period of the pre-frontal convection, but surface to 3 km bulk shear does rise to near 40 kt east of the mountains. Surface-based CAPE values should be 600 J/kg or less as the shower band traverses the region, with instability bubbling up mainly just east of the area Friday afternoon. This is in line with the latest SPC Day 2 Marginal outlook across central/eastern NC. However, lapse rates will gradually steepen up to greater than 6 deg C/km tonight through Friday along and ahead of the frontal zone, so isolated to scattered thunder will be warranted throughout. Expect a window of heavier rainfall in the southwest mountains tonight/Friday morning, but this should not be excessive given current stream/river levels. Isolated showers could persist near the TN border late in the day Friday in moist-low level post-fropa NW flow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: A broad upper trough will set up over the eastern CONUS for the upcoming weekend, maintaining a jet streak over the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. This will keep the forecast area within the cirrus/altostratus side of the jet, so a fair amount of high clouds will continue to stream over the area thru the period. But overall, things dry out by late Friday evening and remain dry thru Sunday, as a modest 1025-1030 mb area of high pressure builds in from the west. Temps will be seasonable, slightly above normal Friday night and Saturday, then slightly below normal Saturday night and Sunday, thanks to a persistent NWLY CAA flow atop the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM Thu: A secondary cold front looks to push southward thru the region early Monday, with dry and cold high pressure expanding south behind it. This will keep temps several degrees below normal thru the middle part of next week. Within the broad-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave will swing across the CWFA Monday or Monday night. The GFS remains the most amplified with this feature, and is alone among the major models in depicting precip accompanying it. Thus we will continue to advertise a dry fcst at that time. There is better agreement on a better defined wave advecting across the Appalachians late Wed into Thu, and this warrants some PoPs for the mountains and some of the foothills. As temps cool to near freezing in those areas Wednesday night, it is possible for rain to change to snow. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR cigs continue this evening, but as the moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, cigs will drop to MVFR and then at least some period of IFR likely on Friday morning. Overnight showers will remain mainly in the mountains, spreading east early tomorrow. Some instability will develop as well, and have continued previous trend of VCTS or PROB30 TSRA at most sites except KCLT, where chances are a little too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will be SSW to SW and occasionally gusty with the strong gradient ahead of the front. Wind shift timing to NW just before 00z at KAVL so introduced that, and should be shortly thereafter at other sites so only included the wind shift at KCLT. Outlook: Dry weather will develop behind the front over the weekend and likely persist into early next week. Confidence Table... 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-00Z KCLT High 100% High 92% High 92% High 95% KGSP High 100% High 90% High 81% High 100% KAVL High 84% High 96% Med 77% High 100% KHKY High 98% High 91% Med 68% High 95% KGMU High 98% High 89% High 83% High 100% KAND High 100% High 84% High 94% High 92% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Carroll NEAR TERM...HG/TDP SHORT TERM...Wimberley LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...TDP
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1015 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 With winds decreasing will expire or cancel all wind advisories for our area shortly before 11 PM. A small severe threat will continue for the next couple of hours though. Strongest storms continue to occur just to the northwest of the forecast area, where warnings are in effect for parts of northern KY. Some of the small storms in the southern part of our forecast area have shown some rotation, and a storm near London produced some pea size hail around 10 PM. UPDATE Issued at 809 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 While the severe threat has diminished in our area considerably we are still not completely out of the woods, and an isolated severe wind gust remains possible until midnight or so. An axis of instability with MUCAPE in excess of 500 j/kg still exists across central KY and storms continue to develop on the southern end of a band of broken storms that extends northeast into OH. In fact a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for parts of Shelby and Franklin counties at 752 EDT. It does appear the axis of instability will decrease as it shifts east tonight. The HRRR has been persistent in trying to evolve the broken cells to our northwest into a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms that will move across our area between 03Z and 08Z, with the line weakening as it moves east. The best chance of any severe storms would be in the western part of our area before midnight. Made some minor adjustments to rain chances this evening, but based on the consistent HRRR have continued with high probabilities as a line of showers and storms is forecast to move across the area. Will continue with the wind advisories as they now exist, but wind gusts outside of storms and showers should gradually diminish. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 434 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 Storm system bearing down on our area. Storms to the west will be moving into an environment less conducive for maintaining strength and severity of storms that we have seen to our west through the day. Just the same, marginal conditions do not entirely count out the seems to happen quite often in our area. We are currently in discussions with SPC to determine what type of watch if any should be issued for our area. Determination will likely be made soon. Will continue with the winds advisory as is. Still seeing some gusts even though there has been a bit of a drop off. Cooler air coming in behind this front will bring our temps back down to normal levels. Rainfall across the area will be a bit limited as well with such a progressive system. In general looking for around a half inch or less, but locally higher amounts will be possible with any thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 434 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 The period will begin with high pressure sinking southward out of the Midwest and west to northwest flow bringing in a cooler airmass into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to generally below normal temperatures across the region through The weekend into early next week. For the most part we are looking at dry weather through early next week, but an upper level wave and surface cold front could bring a slight chance of showers by Sunday night. After this dry weather continues until Wednesday afternoon into Thursday when another storm system arrives. Overall model agreement is not bad, but the ECMWF is the driest model at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 Strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue this evening, with occasional gusts of around 35 knots. Low level non-convective wind shear will also continue to affect all TAF sites through at least 03Z and likely later at most TAF sites. While a narrow line of thunderstorms may move across the area between 02Z and 06Z this is still not certain even at this time. Scattered showers will occur but conditions should only temporarily drop from VFR to MVFR. The cold front will pass through the area tonight and winds on Friday will remain gusty but be out of the west or southwest. Wind gusts on Friday will be 20 to 25 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for KYZ086>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SBH
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1047 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... NE to SW oriented frontal boundary lies between New Iberia and Patterson as of this writing, with drier and cooler air continuing to filter into the region from the NW. Strong SFC high is forecast to continue building into N Texas through the overnight hours, kicking the surface boundary east of the area in the next few hours. Tightening pressure gradient along with CAA will result in increasing N winds and building seas over the coastal waters, and the inherited marine hazards were left largely as is. Increasing ascent is also progged over the SE half or so of the forecast area, and there has already been a recent uptick in light radar returns as this process gets underway. While a stray lightning strike is not out of the question, anticipate mostly areas of rain and/or showers. PoP/Wx grids have been updated accordingly. Rest of the forecast is on track, though did freshen up hourly grids to nudge them a little closer to Obs. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ AVIATION...Cold front is now between LFT and ARA and extends southwest into the gulf waters. Radar showing nothing more than a few light showers over lower Acadiana and these will be exiting shortly as boundary advances further southeast. Carrying a dry forecast throughout TAFs at all terminals. VFR expected with just some mid-level cloudiness holding over the region. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1220 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ AVIATION...A cold front will continue to move east across the region through the afternoon. The boundary will pass KLFT and KARA through the next few hours. Behind the boundary ceilings will improve with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the period. Winds will become NW at all terminals this afternoon, but veer more northerly during the night. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1040 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ UPDATE... Cold front is slipping through the region with temps in the lakes region of southeast texas dropping into the upper 60s while srn Louisiana remains in the 70s. The front is forecast through south central Louisiana this afternoon. This will end the threat for additional fog issues. Winds to pickup tonight as a secondary stronger cold surge drops down into the coastal waters with winds picking up and seas building. Current zones are fine. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 818 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ UPDATE...Dense sea fog has developed this morning over nearshore gulf and coastal lakes. A prefrontal trough is also moving through which is mixing out fog over SE TX and Sabine Lake. Conditions are expected to improve over Calcasieu Lake through the next few hours as the trough approaches. An advisory for sea fog is in effect through 16Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ DISCUSSION... For the 14/12Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... A cold front from northwest Louisiana down to east central Texas will continue to move steadily to the east and across the forecast area this morning into early afternoon hours. Breezy and gusty south winds with IFR/MVFR ceilings will occur ahead of the front. A weakening line of showers and a few thunderstorms will occur right along the frontal system, with possibly some brief visibility restrictions and ceilings continuing at MVFR levels. Looks like KAEX will be the only terminal that has a shot of some isolated lightning with this line of showers so will have VCTS for them ahead and along frontal passage. Behind the front, northwest winds will occur and drier air will gradually filter in to end shower activity and raise ceilings to VFR levels. Rua PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ DISCUSSION... Short Term [Today through Saturday] This morning`s surface analysis indicates a surface cold front extends from east of Dallas south-southwestward to just west of San Antonio. This cold front has produced a line of thunderstorms that has been expanding over the past few hours. Some of these thunderstorms have been severe and produced damaging winds across portions of east Texas. Thus far, the HRRR has had a relatively good handle on the evolution of this line of convection over the past several hours. It depicts the line of thunderstorms approaching the northwestern portions of the CWA around 6 AM and gradually becoming less consolidated as it moves southeastward through the rest of the morning hours. Therefore, northwest portions of the CWA were left out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22 which is in effect until 7 AM CDT for adjacent portions of the Houston and Shreveport CWAs. However, a few strong thunderstorms will still be possible this morning with gusty winds and small hail being the main threats. The line of thunderstorms will continue to be monitored to determine if the threat of severe thunderstorms will become more widespread later this morning. The cold front is expected to push offshore by late this afternoon. This will bring an end to precipitation chances inland portions of the CWA. Over running precipitation is expected to linger over the coastal waters and along on Friday and Saturday before high pressure builds southward. Cold air advection associated with the cold front and cloud cover from over running moisture will result in cool temperatures on Friday and Saturday with highs only in the upper 50s/low 60s. Long Term [Sunday through Wednesday] During the long term period, a longwave trough is forecast to develop over the central and eastern portions of the CONUS with the trough axis centered roughly along the East Coast. Later in the forecast there will be some uncertainty as model guidance depict a variety of evolutions for individual shortwaves that will be rotating through the longwave trough. However, the trough axis being predominately centered east of the region should result in a prolonged period of drier conditions. Temperatures will start out below normal and gradually return to near normal by the middle of next week. MARINE... A cold front will push southeastward through the coastal water today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will develop this evening and continue into Saturday. In addition to the strong winds, seas will build and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the majority of the coastal waters. Winds and seas are expected to gradually subside during the second part of the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 46 62 41 / 60 10 0 0 LCH 82 51 61 47 / 60 20 20 20 LFT 79 53 60 47 / 60 50 30 30 BPT 81 51 61 47 / 60 10 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. Small Craft Exercise Caution through Friday evening for GMZ430- 432-435. && $$ Corrected minor typo.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
852 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A deep low pressure system will move northeast into southeast Canada by Friday morning, while pushing a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region Friday. High pressure builds in behind the front for Saturday and Sunday. A weak front then crosses the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Thursday... Seeing a batch of light showers crossing into the far west this evening basically between bands of deeper convection to the southwest along the cold front, and to the northwest closer to the frontal triple point. Latest evening soundings still show some mid level dry air hanging on so eastward extent of the current showers may be limited until the corridor of better lift near the front arrives overnight into early Friday. Latest HRRR also suggests that the more organized showers wont arrive until after midnight and be limited by lack of much instability. Thus increased pops a bit sooner along/west of the I-77 corridor for low QPF amounts, while removing any thunder mention until late along the western slopes when have pops bouncing back to high chance/likelys west. Combination of the jet aloft/mixing and clouds likely to keep temps quite mild in spots overnight with some spots staying near or above 60. Expect showers to allow for a little better cooling mountains where nudged lows down closer to 50. Previous discussion as of 250 PM EDT Thursday... Plume of mid/high level moisture continues to streak northeast over the central Appalachians this afternoon, with strong southwest flow aloft. Lower clouds affecting the NC mountains into the southern Blue Ridge of VA will hang tough into this evening, before mixing increases ahead of a cold front. This front is spawning severe weather from Indiana/western Ohio south through MS/AL this afternoon. As the main low shifts further north across the Great Lakes into Canada the frontal line of showers/storms will stretch out more and become less organized as it moves toward our county warning area tonight. Still should be enough to warrant high chance to likely pops. Given the line is arriving at night and late, will see little threat of thunder, but cannot rule out some isolated rumbles across SE WV. Friday will see the scattered to numerous showers head into the New River Valley by mid morning and reach the piedmont by midday to early afternoon. Forecast reflects best forcing across the southern tier of the area in NC and have pops more in the likely to cat range with lower chances over the north, albeit still good chances. SPC has a marginal risk highlighted for severe weather along and east of a Amelia Court House to Staunton River State Park to Roxboro, NC line. As such will not mention severe threat in the hazardous weather outlook. Thinking early day coverage of showers and clouds will limit severe potential, but will have some isolated thunder in the east during the afternoon. As for temps expect milder temps tonight as clouds and warm advection increases, such that lows will be warmer than our normal highs for this time of year. Not out of the question to see some record warm lows tied or broken. See the records in the climate section below for March 15th. Warm Friday will be experience but less sunshine. Cold advection should bring falling temps in the afternoon across the mountains but temps will still be mild as we head toward dusk. High temps will range form the lower 60s in the mountains, to around 70 in the piedmont. Forecast confidence is high for the temps and winds, but moderate on coverage of rain as some high-res models are showing a little less coverage per stretching/weakening of the front. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Thursday... The late week into the weekend period on the whole is rather quiet/uneventful, aside from a period of gusty northwest winds and a brief period of light upslope snow showers with little accumulation on grassy surfaces Friday night into Saturday. Another light precip event possible late Sunday into Sunday night but not appearing too significant. Highlights include: * Gusty northwest winds, potentially to Advisory levels along the Blue Ridge Friday night into early Saturday. * Brief period of snow showers in the western mountains overnight Friday into early Saturday, and potentially again Sunday night. Neither of which looks substantial/impactful. * Return to more seasonal temperatures with drying/lowering relative humidities. Broad mean longwave trough/cyclonic flow aloft will prevail in the period, with a sprawling area of surface high pressure over the northern Plains/Rockies ridging into the Blacksburg forecast area. In the wake of the frontal passage early Friday evening will be an increase in northwest winds along with falling temperatures closer to typical mid-March levels. Period of strongest wind gusts looks to be between midnight to around mid-morning Saturday, where GFS shows an overlap of 6-9 mb/6 hr pressure rises with an increase in 850 mb northwest winds to 45 kts. Cold advection will also help raise winds, but that being said it is not as robust as seen in stronger post-frontal wind events. Do think that the winds could get close to Advisory levels and will continue to mention gusty northwest winds in the HWO. Other than falling temperatures - lows in the low 30s to near 40 - will also see some shallow moisture banked against the WV Appalachians which should support initial rain changing to snow showers overnight. Better moisture is really more north/eastward into Pocahontas County on upward into northeast WV, and snow growth parameters are pretty unimpressive. Will therefore only show snow amounts to an inch in western Greenbrier County with those accumulations mainly on grass with limited impact. Lows upper 20s to mid 30s west of the Blue Ridge, and into the mid/upper 30s to near 40 east. Otherwise, Saturday into the first part of Sunday will feature mostly clear skies and a return to more seasonable temperatures with high pressure in control. Likely a pretty chilly Saturday night with near optimal radiational cooling conditions. Air mass is quite dry and good mixing should result in falling relative humidities each afternoon. Highs mostly in the 40s to mid 50s Saturday/Sunday with sub-freezing lows in most areas except in the NC Piedmont and the foothills of NC. Late Sunday and more into Sunday night, GFS and Canadian models show a weak and moisture-starved Clipper low associated with a compact shortwave trough/vort max moving across the Ohio Valley into the northern mid-Atlantic. Low pressure generally skirts across the northern Shenandoah Valley or into the MD/VA border overnight hrs. Think at best this feature will result in an increase in clouds across the western half of the forecast area with limited chances for rain/snow showers from Mercer through Greenbrier County. Accumulations again not expected to be substantial. Forecast confidence is generally high, though is closer to moderate on how strong wind gusts get Friday night/early Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Thursday.. An overall quiet, dry period looks likely looking into next week with high pressure in control, and a mean longwave trough aloft. There remains some disagreement for the Tuesday timeframe between the GFS and the international suite of deterministic models on handling a second shortwave which digs from the northern Plains into the eastern Ohio Valley. GFS produces some measurable precip across our southern counties into central NC as this trough digs into the northern Carolinas, and this has been consistently shown in the last couple model cycles. However equally as consistent has been the drier ECMWF/Canadian guidance which digs this shortwave further south and mainly leads to coastal cyclogenesis off the SC coast Tuesday night - Wednesday. Will lean toward the drier solutions in the ECMWF and Canadian in this period. Overall look for an extended period of mostly clear weather with large diurnal ranges and temperatures within a few degrees of mid-March normals. Forecast confidence is moderate to high. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 PM EDT Thursday... Aviation conditions will gradually deteriorate from southwest to to northeast overnight as moisture ahead of a cold front to the west increases within deep southwest flow aloft. Bands of showers may also arrive from the southwest, mainly after midnight, and ahead of the actual cold front by early Friday morning. Ceilings will drop to MVFR over most of the region this evening followed by a period of IFR over parts of the mountains into Friday morning as the showers cross the region. Lower ceilings likely over the west near KBLF/KLWB around daybreak Friday, then east to the Blue Ridge Friday morning, and points east by early afternoon. Vsbys likely to remain mostly VFR but lower to MVFR or brief IFR over the far west early Friday within showers, and out east with any convection that could possibly impact KLYH/KDAN later in the day. These showers will exit areas west of the Blue Ridge by early afternoon as the front crosses from the west. Some IFR cigs may occur at KBLF behind the showers/front Friday as upslope westerly flow kicks in with improvement back to post frontal VFR from west to east Friday afternoon/evening. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... After the frontal passage, isolated rain and snow showers could occur in the western mountains during Friday night into early Saturday where MVFR ceilings may linger. Conditions will improve to VFR Saturday into Sunday as high pressure returns. VFR should stick around early next week, though as a weak upper disturbance passes Monday, and high pressure works in from the north Tuesday, some lower clouds could occur along and west of the Blue Ridge. && .CLIMATE... As of 305 PM EDT Thursday... Warm low temps expected late tonight so record may be realized. Caveat to this will be temps before midnight Friday night which could be colder. Friday 03/15/2019 Site Warmest Lows/Year Bluefield 59 1990 Danville 57 1929 Lynchburg 59 1973 Roanoke 60 1973 Blacksburg 55 1953 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP CLIMATE...WP