Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/14/19

National Weather Service Albany NY
1041 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will move northeast of the region early this morning with the light snow and rain showers north of the Capital Region ending. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday, with showers likely ahead of a cold front on Friday. Temperatures will return closer to normal levels for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1040 pm EDT...A short-wave continues to progress across southeast Quebec and northern NY, as heights continue to rise upstream of the short-wave over the central and eastern Great Lakes Region and the OH Valley. Virga has been ongoing from the Capital Region south and east. The 00Z KALY sounding is very dry below 11 kft AGL. Large sfc T-Td spreads continue across the region. We kept some slight and low chance POPs in for a few hours north and west of the Capital Region. The local NYS mesonet cams indicated some light snow accums across the southern Adirondacks. We have seen some light rain amounts of a few hundredths in the west-central Mohawk River Valley but temps remain above freezing. We have mainly retooled the hourly weather grids for light rain/snow showers Temps are having trouble wet bulbing further south with all the dry low-level air. An isolated pocket of freezing drizzle is possible, but at this point we will address with an SPS if we get any reports. Based on the latest 3-km HRRR and NAM this short- wave will not be much of a pcpn producer and it should be north and east of the region after midnight. Temperatures will also remain on the mild side and should only fall into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s overnight as mostly cloudy conditions will persist. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridging continues to build into the forecast area on Thursday with temperatures warming well above normal. Thicker clouds will be in place at daybreak but should erode throughout the morning hours as the ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures should warm well into the 50s across most areas by the afternoon. Stronger upper energy and increasing low level jet convergence approach our region Thursday night with rain reaching western areas prior to midnight and all other areas by daybreak Friday. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible in western areas but model soundings show a pretty strong inversion in place. SPC currently has the western areas in an area of general thunder through daybreak Friday. Overnight lows will be even milder, in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Strong southwest boundary layer winds spread across the region early Friday, resulting in a very mild day with rain showers. Temperatures may warm into lower 60s in the valleys with low to mid 50s in the higher terrain. The southwest winds may result in some downsloping effects, limiting coverage of the showers. Total QPF looks to range from a quarter to a half an inch of rain throughout the day with highest amounts western areas. Showers should exit the region Friday evening as winds turn more out of the west, ushering in colder air. Cold air advection continues Friday night, allowing for rain to change back over to snow in the southern Adirondacks, Western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills. Snow showers continue through the day in these areas as upper level energy continues to move across the area. Temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 20s to upper 30s, with high temperatures on Saturday in the 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended forecast will feature the return of the mean H500 longwave trough across the Northeast based on the latest medium range and deterministic model guidance for late in the weekend into the middle of next week with generally below normal temps for late March. Saturday night...A cold front and short-wave trough move across the region with limited low-level moisture to work with. The best chance of snow showers will be north and west of the Capital Region. Some lake enhanced snow showers may produce some light snow accums across the western Adirondacks, and the western Mohawk Valley. In the cold advection in the wake of the front, it will get rather cold with H850 temps falling to -12C to -16C based on the 12Z GFS. Lows will fall back into the teens and 20s with a few single digits over the southern Dacks. Sunday...A brisk and cold day is expected with some lake effect snow showers or flurries impacting the western Adirondacks. H850 temps will continue to be 1 to 2 STD DEVs below normal based on the 12Z GEFS. Highs will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s over the mountains, and mid 30s to lower 40s over the hills and in the valleys. Sunday night into Monday...Another short-wave in the cyclonic flow within the H500 longwave trough moves towards and across the region. There are some timing differences between the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Ensembles. This impulse once again does not have a lot of low-level moisture with it, and it may produce some isolated snow showers or scattered flurries mainly west of the Hudson River Valley. It will remain cold with lows in the teens to lower 20s, except single digits across the southern Adirondacks, and highs will remain in the mid and upper 30s over the lower elevations to start the week with a few lower 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley, and mid 20s to mid 30s over the mtns. Monday night into Tuesday...High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region over NY and New England with fair, cold and dry weather. The March sun angle should help out some, but still temps will be running below normal with H850 temps of -12C to -16C. Lows mainly in the teens to lower 20s once again with some single numbers over the southern Greens, and southern Adirondacks. Highs will be slightly below normal with 30s to lower 40s across most of the region, but some upper 20s over mountains. Tuesday night into Wednesday...The sfc high retreats offshore Tuesday Night, as a clipper low moving across the Great Lakes Region/Midwest may increase clouds and bring isolated to scattered snow/rain showers north and west of the Capital Region based more on the latest GFS/CMC and some of Ensembles late in the day. Temps start to trend closer to normal by the mid week ahead of this system. Overall, below normal temps and potentially below normal pcpn in the extended. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level disturbance will move across northern NY and New England tonight. A mid and upper level ridge will build in over NY and New England tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours ending 00Z/FRI at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The upper level disturbance will generally produce bkn cigs in the 5-6 kft AGL range at KALB-KPSF to KGFL with mid-level clouds in the 8-10 kft AGL range. A VCSH group was used at KGFL, but overall this disturbance has produced a lot of virga. Further south, towards KPOU expect mid and high level clouds to continue with cigs around 10 kft AGL. The cigs at KGFL/KPSF will become scattered at 5-6 kft AGL around noontime, with mid level clouds continuing at those sites and KALB/KPOU. As the ridge builds in expect mainly high clouds around for the duration of the afternoon at all the TAF sites. The winds will be light and variable in direction at 4 kts or less tonight. They will increase from the southeast at 5-10 kts in the late morning into the afternoon. Low-level wind shear may increase towards 00Z/FRI, but has not been included in the TAFS yet. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will be mild overnight as an upper level disturbance brings the chances for a passing rain shower or some spotty freezing rain. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday, with showers likely ahead of a cold front on Friday. Temperatures will return closer to normal levels for the weekend. RH values will be at or above 40 percent through Friday. Winds will be south to southeast at less than 15 mph today through Thursday. Winds turn to the west Friday evening and become breezy. && .HYDROLOGY... Late this afternoon and evening, some very light precipitation in the form of rain and freezing rain will pass through northern areas during the evening hours and into the first part of the overnight. Total liquid equivalent will be under a tenth of an inch and this precipitation will have little to impact on area rivers and streams. Behind this system, mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday, along with much milder temperatures. This will allow for some snowmelt across the region. Temperatures will remain mild for Thursday night into Friday, which will continue to allow snow melt to occur. There still is some uncertainty just how much snow melts occurs, as the snow pack is still very cold across high terrain areas and will need to ripen before it can melt. Some rainfall is also expected on Thursday night into Friday, which will also contribute to the runoff, but amounts look to mainly be under a half inch. While the combination of snow melt and rainfall should allow for some rises on rivers and streams, it may not be enough to cause rivers to reach flood stage. The latest MMEFS show a few river points have about a 30% chance of reaching flood stage, and this is mainly due to the model showing some aggressive melt of the snowpack across the Adirondacks which may not occur. As of right now, river flooding due to rainfall/snowmelt looks to be a limited threat for late this week. While snowmelt flooding doesn`t appear likely, we cannot totally rule out localized flooding due to ice jams. River rises could allow for some ice to move, and it`s always possible this time of year that ice gets stuck in a particular spot that can cause a localized backup of water. The threat for ice jam flooding appears to be highest Friday and perhaps lingering into the weekend. Colder and drier weather returning this weekend should help limit any additional runoff for this weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLV/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...NAS/JLV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...JLV HYDROLOGY...JLV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Tweaked POPs again as they were too high mid to late evening across much of western and a good chunk of central ND. Most of the snowfall has been confined to far south central ND and into the James River Valley. Snow should expand north and west with time tonight. We continue to struggle to saturate west and north of the main area of snow. KBIS radar depicts a solid 2500 ft layer of dry air still to work through as of 930PM. This area is decreasing so precipitation should eventually result. 00Z high resolution models (ARM/NMM) along with the latest NAM have pushed the heavy snow area farther east, now in the 2-4 inch range for the southwest and south central. Far south central ND still has 6-8" with the higher totals over the James River Valley. Latest HRRR/RAP are advertising very similar numbers for the areas above. Thus the high forecast snowfall totals were maintained far south central and across much of my southeast (James River area), but we decreased forecast snow amounts elsewhere by on average 3 inches, including for Bismarck/Mandan. Regardless of this decrease, with the strong winds still expected to develop now through the overnight, blizzard conditions will develop so our headlines will remain as is with this update. UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Slowed the northward expansion of POPs a bit, utilizing the HREF and CONSSHORT models, which seem to have the best grasp of current radar imagery and reports. Headlines remain valid. Have had reports from both the Dickey and LaMoure county Emergency Managers of visibilities from less than 1/2 mile to a couple of city blocks within urban areas. Conditions will further deteriorate through this evening to the west and north as snow moves in and northerly winds increase. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Developing blizzard conditions south and east late this afternoon and into the night highlight the short term. Latest satellite imagery presents a gorgeous and textbook example of a mid-latitude upper level cyclone centered near the intersection of Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. At the surface, low pressure continues to undergo explosive cyclogenesis over western Kansas with a RAP analyzed closed contour of 972 hPa. As the entire system starts to pick up speed and move northeast, the surface low will begin to fill, the storm will become more vertically stacked and the pressure gradient will tighten over western and central North Dakota. Strong upper level Q-Vector convergence rotates catawampus into the southwest and south central after 00z Thursday. Two distinct flavors of forcing are being advertised through 12 UTC Thursday per the 12 UTC iteration of today`s GFS. A large uniform area of decent mid level frontogenesis collocated with strong omega in the dendritic growth zone will be the primary mechanism for accumulations across the west and the central with the exception of the south central. Further south and east, strong frontogenesis in the lower levels will be collocated with very strong omega in the dendritic growth layer. This is the area that will extend from somewhere in Sioux county, northeast through Logan county, to Stutsman and Foster counties. These areas and east will see the best signals for banded snow and will be characterized by steeper mid level lapse rates that points further west. This band will likely see totals ranging from 8 to 14 inches with isolated pockets of greater accumulations. Elected to trend the edge of this relatively narrow band a bit further west than most guidance as western QPF associated with the more uniform synoptic forcing appears to be a bit underdone. The other complicating factor will be some mid level dry air intruding over Dickey and LaMoure counties overnight, bringing the potential for some freezing drizzle and perhaps a local minimum in snowfall totals if and where the intruding dry slot sets up and ice aloft is lost. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the western gradient of the precipitation shield. The Bismarck/Mandan corridor has consistently been near or right on top of this gradient, thus a slight wobble on track could vastly alter snow amounts there. Still, even a few inches of snow will create widespread blizzard conditions when coupled with 55 to 65 mph wind gusts. These values seem reasonable analyzing potential momentum transfer using 12 UTC BUFKIT soundings across the south central and eastern portions of our area. Synoptic forcing for large scale ascent becomes more diffuse through the day on Thursday and the snow will gradually taper. Gusty winds will remain in place through much of the day and blizzard conditions across the south central and east will be slow to relax. By the late afternoon, light snow will linger but winds will slowly start to abate. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 BLizzard conditions continue to diminish Thursday evening from west to east. A few weak clippers follow overnight, late Friday night through Saturday, and another Sunday. However little or no significant weather will come of these, other than low end precipitation chances from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River Valley. High temperatures will remain in the 30s through the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Accumulating snow combined with strong winds will lead to blizzard conditions at KBIS and KJMS by 06z this evening. Although blizzard conditions are not expected at KDIK, visibilities will still be significantly reduced down to 1/2 mile at times. Very little to no accumulating snow is expected at KMOT and KISN with visibilities remaining VFR. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions improve Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon from west to east. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ012-019-021-033-040. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ005-013. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ036- 037-045>048-050-051. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday for NDZ020- 022-023-025-034-035-041>044. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1030 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the east coast tonight. A cold front approaching from the west on Thursday should reach the mountains Thursday night and cross the region on Friday. Dry high pressure will then follow for the weekend. A weak cold front will arrive from the northwest early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1020 pm EDT: A highly amplified flow pattern will remain in place tonight as the major cyclone over the plains slowly lifts northeast while the downstream ridge axis moves over the eastern seaboard. Well ahead of this system, and the associated surface cold front advancing east across the Mississippi River Valley, the southerly to southwesterly 850 mb jet will ramp up across the southern mountains overnight, with 40+ kt speeds likely ariving after 06Z. Expect breezy to windy conditions to develop. With this update, wind gust potential was re-evaluated. It is limited by the warm-advective nature of the winds, but some of the higher elevations may be more directly exposed to the winds within the jet. HRRR guidance seems to capture a minor mountain-wave wind event, with notably stronger winds on the Tennessee side of the mtns. With lack of support from the model guidance that normally might indicate significant gusting, we will continue to advertise advisory-level gusts only at elevations above 4000 feet, and sparsely even at that elevation. Hence no Wind Advisory appears warranted. Isentropic lift and southern mountain upslope flow will increase through the morning hours, with solid chance PoPs for light showers indicated by daybreak. Per latest meso model output and relatively shallow nature of the moist layer, the onset of overnight PoPs has been slowed down a bit, but there remains reason to believe chances increase more rapidly in the morning. Expect a strengthening, deep-layer southwesterly flow to develop through the day on Thursday as the filling central CONUS system lifts to the Great Lakes and the associated cold front pushes east toward the southern Appalachians. Despite the offshore surface high position, cannot rule out some shallow, weak surface wedging as the upglide improves a bit from the west and a nose of surface high pressure persists east of the mountains. However, precipitation over the piedmont is questionable and the guidance sources all have southerly flow at the surface, so will only shade temperatures slightly toward the cooler end of the guidance envelope. Will also keep a sharp PoP gradient going late day as the southern mountains experience deepening upslope flow and moisture, while the I-77 corridor stays relatively dry. Any sbCAPE should be limited to far southern and southwestern sections late Thursday afternoon, where little more than isolated thunder should be possible. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The short term picks up at 00z Friday with a deep cyclone tracking NE across the Great Lakes dragging a cold front across the Ohio to Lower MS valleys. A band of convection is expected to be along/ahead of the front approaching the southern Appalachians Thursday evening. The better dynamics looks to stay north of the area, and only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE is expected to push into the western Carolinas ahead of activity from the south. So I expect mainly showers and perhpas a few weakening thunderstorms to enter western NC overnight Thursday night, struggling to survive to the eastern escarpment by daybreak Friday. A SWLY 40-50 kt LLJ will provide strong upslope forcing and pool 1.0-1.5" pwats into the NC mountains and NE GA. So a quick 1-2" of QPF is possible in these areas, which should be well under FFG. With that said, a non-zero excessive rain threat will exist in these areas. Elsewhere, it will be a mild night under cloudy skies and spotty light showers. The front will cross the area during the day Friday. Much like the previous front, the air mass ahead of the front will struggle to destabilize until it gets mostly east of the CWFA. The NAM is a slow outlier, and has 500-1000 J/kg of sbCAPE across most of the NC/SC piedmont by 21z Friday. But all the global models show at least a few hundred J/kg along the I-77 corridor. So some redevelopment/ strengthening convection looks possible before the line exits to the east. Bulk shear will be on the order of 40-50 kts, but mostly unidirectional. So the severe threat looks low at this time. Temps will be tricky Friday, as CAA ramps up in the mountains, while the piedmont sees downslope warming after very warm morning lows. Will go with superblend for now, but may need to bump up maxes in the east, if the front`s exit is any slower. Highs ranging from upper 50s along TN border to lower 70s in the extreme SE. Friday night, shallow moisture will bank up against the NC/TN border areas within NW flow. A few sprinkles/flurries may be seen overnight, but accums are unlikely. Then cool and dry high pressure builds in from the west on Saturday under a deepening trough aloft. Min temps will still be a couple categories above normal Friday night, but then temps return to slightly below normal for highs Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: A stg ulvl trof will continue to develop across the ern CONUS to begin the period. The guidance is still at odds wrt the amt of mlvl energy diving toward the FA Sun night...however there is now better agreement seen btw the GFS/CMC solns. At any rate...have maintained the slgt chc PoPs with precip continuing thru the daytime Mon. The p/type looks to either be snow or rain which is common with the alignment of this type of pattern. Currently have a mix of -ra/sn to begin then likely all snow aft 06z before changing back to rain as the llvls warm arnd mid-morning. No sigfnt accums are expected with this feature. Strong Canadian hipres will build in quickly Mon and keep the atmos rather dry thru Wed. This new airmass mix will also maintain temps a bit below normal. There could be a more organized system developing off the Atl coast just past the fcst period and right now it looks cold enuf to support wintry weather over most of the FA. The details of this system will be worked out over the next several days. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR this evening under mainly cirrus cigs; these may thin as upper ridge axis moves past the region. Overnight, however, low-level southerly flow will amplify ahead of frontal system moving thru the Mississippi Valley. This will saturate a layer and introduce a restrictive cig, first in the upslope areas near the Blue Ridge Escarpment--hence warranting MVFR at KAVL soon after midnight--and later in the morning at all sites except KCLT, where cigs should remain low VFR. Diurnal mixing is expected to result in eventual lifting of cigs back to VFR, except at KAVL, as a result of the upslope enhancement. Isentropic lift will continue and a chance of precip is introduced early in the morning at KAVL and during the aftn elsewhere, except at KCLT. Outlook: Moisture and associated restrictions will be greatest Thursday night through Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. There is a small chance of thunder Friday east of the mountains. Dry weather will develop over the weekend and likely persist into early next week. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 90% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 93% High 87% High 98% KAVL High 100% High 89% High 86% High 95% KHKY High 100% High 89% High 84% High 95% KGMU High 100% High 89% High 87% High 95% KAND High 100% High 93% High 86% High 90% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...HG/Wimberley SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1020 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Just sent out an evening update to address the ongoing snow and wind situation across western and north central Nebraska. For starters, made a couple of changes to the headlines and they are as follows: Added Custer, Garfield, Wheeler and Holt counties to a blizzard warning and removed Custer county from the high wind warning as a blizzard warning should cover both the wind and snow threat. The latest model solutions this evening develop a band of precipitation on the western periphery of the surface low overnight and sustain this into Thursday morning. There is decent agreement between the HRRR and NAM12 solutions developing the western edge of this band of precipitation from eastern Custer into Garfield, Wheeler and eastern Holt counties. Snow fall amounts will not be huge with this band, however, the latest short term solns indicate the strongest H85 winds (60+ KTS) developing from Boyd county, south to Garfield and Wheeler counties Thursday morning. If the 2 to 5 inches of snow can materialize as indicated in the models, conditions will be very bad across these areas Thursday morning. Finally, went ahead and removed Custer county from the high wind warning as the weather hazards will be covered with the newly issued blizzard warning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 The center of a very impressive mid latitude cyclone is located across western KS this afternoon. The surface low associated with this is near 970 mb. A mid level dry slot has advanced north into southern/eastern portions of Nebraska, allowing for a break in the rainfall. Farther west, across western and portions of north central Nebraska, an intense band of heavy snow is occurring within the deformation zone on the northwest side of the system. Along with the snow, very strong winds have developed and will continue through tonight and into Thursday. The snow band across northwest Nebraska will slowly weaken tonight, but blizzard conditions will continue all night and into at least Thursday morning due to the very strong winds. The other aspect of this system is the widespread flooding that is occurring across central and eastern portions of the state. As the system occludes this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop across portions of north central KS and southern and southwest Nebraska. These will wrap back to the northwest and form a new narrow deformation band this evening. This will change over to snow, with 2 to loaclly 5 inches possible within this band to the east of Highway 83. Winter Storm Warning is in effect for this area due to the combination of snow and blowing snow. Strong damaging winds will be the other factor in this storm system. Gusts of 60 to 65 mph will remain possible through the day Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 High pressure builds in Friday leading sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 30s across the Sandhills to mid 40s south of I-80, which will be roughly 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms. With high pressure in place for the weekend, temperatures will moderate a bit but are expected to remain at or slightly below seasonable norms with h85 temperatures running a bit cool. Winds will be light making for pleasant conditions with highs climbing into the upper 30s to lower 50s from north to south. Our next chance for precipitation arrives late Monday into early Tuesday with the approach of a frontal boundary associated with a clipper system. The ECMWF has backed off a bit and pushed most precipitation south of the area while the GFS is quicker with its solution and clips areas south of I-80 early Tuesday morning. Both models indicate temperature profiles favorable for a rain/snow mix but QPF looks to be light, limiting any potential snow amounts. There does not appear to be much of a cold surge with this system, so little change is expected in daytime highs between Tuesday and Wednesday with highs generally near 40 in the northern Sandhills to near 50 across southwest Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 For the KLBF terminal: Expect periods of IFR conditions this evening into the early overnight hours as snow and blowing snow impacts the terminal. Visbys may drop periodically under a half a mile through mid evening. Very strong northerly winds are expected over the next 24 hours with frequent wind gusts between 40 and 50 KTS. For the KVTN terminal: Expect LIFR conditions this evening as blizzard conditions impact northern Nebraska. Conditions will begin to slowly improve overnight, however, visibilities will range from 1-2 miles with very strong northerly winds gusting as high as 50 KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-069>071. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-069>071. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ006>009-027. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ004- 005-010-022>024-028-029-035-038-056-094. && $$ UPDATE...Buttler SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Jurgensen AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
922 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore through Thursday. Strong low pressure will move northeastward across the Great Lakes Thursday night, then into Canada Friday. A warm front will approach from the Carolinas Friday morning, quickly followed by a cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon. High pressure will follow for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure will continue to move offshore through tonight. A weak shortwave rounding the ridge aloft combined with isentropic ascent is resulting in a fairly solid deck of mid level clouds. So far, sprinkles are remaining in Pennsylvania, so may be able to trim this mention from the forecast grids a bit. Light south to southeast flow will continue through the night and will combine with the cloud cover to limit temperature falls. Some areas are calm, and when the mid clouds exit and leave thinner cirrus, some spots could drop into the 30s. Otherwise lows in the 40s can be expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As high pressure continues to drift into the western Atlantic, a strong area of low pressure will move northeastward across the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. A fair amount of mid and high level cloudiness is expected to continue moving overhead well in advance of this system. The associated warm front will move northward toward the region from the Carolinas Thursday night. Strong warm air advection in the low levels should result in at least scattered showers making there way east of the mountains during the second part of the night. Temperatures will be quite mild, well into the 60s to near 70 Thursday and staying in the 50s Thursday night. Some fog seems likely near the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay as dew points rise above the colder water temperatures. The warm front will lift northward across the area Friday morning, quickly followed by a cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon. There may be a break in precipitation between the fronts, before daytime heating leads to the development of more showers near and east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the milder temperatures and higher humidity, there is expected to be a few hundred joules of CAPE, mainly east of I-95, which could result in an isolated thunderstorm or two. There is a fair amount of shear, but the mid and upper support is well removed from our area. Any more organized showers or a thunderstorm or two will have to be reliant on modest instability and surface convergence along the front. Therefore, widespread organized convection is not anticipated, though some gusty winds are possible in any heavier showers along the front. Highs may again approach 70 Friday, but there`s questions as to how much precipitation and cloud cover will allow temperatures rise. Some scattered upslope snow showers are possible along the Allegheny Front Friday night as temperatures cool. Lows will drop into the 40s east of the mountains, to around freezing over the higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cool but mostly dry pattern is expected during the long term. At the start of the period, a cold front will be pushing east off the coast, with cool but dry northwest flow dominating. Some upslope rain/snow showers are expected in the mountains, but elsewhere, little if any precip is expected. A broad trough will settle over the region and remain through Tuesday. While weak disturbances will work across the region, the frontal boundary will remain well to the south and east, keeping moisture limited and limiting any surface development. Will need to watch for any potential stronger disturbances which could result in cyclogenesis, but at least through Tuesday the odds of any significant coastal low pressure development affecting our region appear low. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Southerly winds expected through Friday, with daytime gusts of around 20 knots possible. Mainly VFR through Thursday, although some guidance indicates MVFR clouds could approach CHO as early as Thursday morning as moist flow pushes into the Blue Ridge. Some fog is possible near terminals adjacent to larger bodies of water (dew points rising above colder water temperatures) Thursday night. Sub-VFR ceilings also likely develop Thursday night and persist into Friday as a warm front lifts northward from the Carolinas. A cold front will quickly follow from the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon as the parent surface low moves from the Great Lakes into Canada. Some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are likely during this time (best chance of thunder near/east of I-95). Gusts 20-30 kts possible along the front Friday afternoon. Winds behind the front become NW Friday night. VFR should prevail over the weekend, though the northwesterly flow may gust 20-30 knots at times, especially on Saturday. && .MARINE... S/SE channeling was resulting in numerous 20 kt gusts during the late afternoon hours along the western shore of the Bay south of the Bay Bridge and downstream from Dahlgren on the Potomac, so a Small Craft Advisory was issued until midnight. There seems to be enough decoupling that the winds are generally trending to 15 kt or less. May be able to cancel the Small Craft Advisory early, although it`s worth noting the HRRR model keeps winds elevated past midnight. Southerly flow will likely have trouble mixing down over relatively cooler water as milder air moves in, at least until the gradient increases markedly ahead of an approaching frontal system Thursday night into Friday. However, with the upper tidal Potomac being narrower and the fetch coming from land instead of water, have issued a Small Craft Advisory from noon until 6 PM. It`s possible that this may need to be expanded as models are indicating 12-15 kt sustained winds, but did not have the confidence to issue due to the factors listed above and presentation of NAM forecast soundings at NHK. Likewise, uncertainty in the amount of mixing and magnitude of gusts continues into Thursday night, though a SCA could be required for parts of the waters. Some fog, possibly dense, is likely over the waters as dew points rise above the water temperatures Thursday night into Friday. Showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm or two are likely Friday afternoon. SCA possible, especially Saturday, but winds likely diminish a bit Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Southerly flow will result in rising tidal anomalies through Friday, which may lead to near minor flooding (highest forecast tides will be during the day Friday). Winds will turn to northwesterly behind a cold front Friday night, causing anomalies to decrease. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534- 536-537-542. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...ADS/RCM/DHOF MARINE...ADS/RCM/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
813 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 437 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a trof over the Rockies with a strong shortwave/mid-level low over far nw KS. At the sfc, a ~971mb low was along the CO/KS border, unusually deep and a potentially record breaking low pres for that part of the country. Ahead of the system, southerly flow has transported abundant moisture n thru the Plains with 12z soundings showing anomalously high precipitable water values of 300-375pct of normal across the central Plains. Closer to home, shortwave that brought -shra to the area last night is heading into southern Quebec. In its wake, it`s generally been a dry day across the fcst area. Fog has not been too much of an issue today. Fog has been most persistent and locally dense around the northern end of the Bay of Green Bay e to KISQ/KERY vcnty. Vis satellite imagery has shown low clouds thinning in the s wind downslope areas near Lake Superior. Current temps are in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Aformentioned system over western KS has already reached peak intensity and will be weakening as it lifts ne, reaching the western Great Lakes region Thu evening. A couple of shortwaves lifting out ahead of the main wave will bring 2 periods of more organized shra to the fcst area thru Thu morning. The second wave, passing Thu morning, will be notable stronger than the first wave arriving this evening. Resurgence of isentropic ascent/moisture transport with the first wave should bring sct/nmrs shra from s to n across the fcst area this evening. Forcing tends to strengthen with time, so greater coverage of shra will probably occur across the n and in particular the nw where moisture transport remains more focused. Pcpn should then diminish for a time before increasing again overnight ahead of the next approaching, stronger shortwave. Pcpn fcst on Thu is a little more nebulous, but seems that there would be a diminishing trend in shra late morning into the mid aftn before some increase in shra again late in advance of the decaying/former mid-level low. With some instability aloft, not out the question that there could be a few rumbles of thunder, especially late tonight/Thu morning in association with the stronger shortwave. Expect low temps tonight in the mid 30s to around 40F. There may be some tendency for temps to rise overnight. Highs on Thu should be mostly in the upper 40s/lwr 50s, colder near Lake MI. If there are any breaks in the clouds, temps could rise well into the 50s. Fog could become quite widespread and locally dense at times tonight into Thu as even higher dwpts advect into the area. Have maintained going flood watch. Broadly, expect one-third to two- thirds of an inch of rainfall tonight/Thu. There will probably be locally higher amounts where heavier shra track. At this point, would expect main issues to be with ponding of water on roads near ice/snow packed storm drains and any stretches of road where deep, extensive snowbanks along the shoulders prevent normal water drainage off the roads. Water seeping into basements will also be an issue. Small streams impacted by any heavier showers could see rapid rises in water levels. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2019 Models show the big system currently over the Central Plains beginning to unravel as it passes overhead Thursday evening at the start of the long-term period. It quickly lifts off to the northeast through Thursday night and its cold front surges southeastward across Upper Michigan. It looks right now like the precip forced by the cold front will be primarily rain but may end as wet snow, with amounts generally expected to be less than an inch, except perhaps 2- 3 inches for the Porkies and Ironwood. A secondary short wave dropping down behind the main vort lobe will keep scattered snow showers going into Friday morning and account for another 1-3 inches during the day Friday over the higher terrain of the west. this won`t be pure LES as the air mass alone won`t be cold enough to support it, but the combination of some modest synoptic lift and reduced stability upwind will lead to an enhancement over the western tier of counties. Rather than snow accums, the bigger concern for Friday morning will likely be a flash freeze of slushy roads and standing water left over from this week`s warmup, given temperatures falling quickly from near 40 Thursday evening to the mid to upper 20s by sunrise Friday. This could significantly impact the Friday morning commute, especially on the back roads, so residents are encouraged to stay tuned for further updates. Friday also looks gusty as the reduced stability from cold advection aloft allows for more effective momentum transfer. Could see some 25- 30 mph gusts on land (perhaps up to 40 mph along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette) and gales on the ice-free areas of Lake Superior, which should have grown quite a bit since last week owing to this warmup. Speaking of the lake opening back up... the core of the upper level trough moves over the Upper Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday and along with that temps will cool enough to support another round of LES for the NW wind snowbelts. This round will probably be steadier and more organized than Friday`s with sfc-850 delta T`s climbing to about 17 C. It`s a progressive pattern, however, and the mid-levels start warming and inversion heights begin dropping by midday Saturday west and late afternoon east, bringing a quick end to the snow showers after another 1-3 inches Friday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday. The next system looks to be on Tuesday as another northern stream short wave drops southward across the Great Lakes, but it does not look like anything significant at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 812 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2019 Warmer, moist air mass flowing n into the area, along with rain at times, will result in poor conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through the forecast period. Downsloping wind initially will allow for MVFR conditions at KCMX and low MVFR conditions at KIWD. Both of these terminals will fall to IFR this evening and then probably to LIFR during the night. At KSAW, upsloping wind through the period should result in IFR conditions falling to LIFR. Conditions at KCMX/KSAW may fall below airfield land mins at times late tonight into Thursday morning. LLWS is also expected tonight into Thu morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 437 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2019 Wind gusts up to 20-30kt are possible tonight on Lake Superior, in particular with the ne winds over far western Lake Superior and the se winds over the eastern half of the lake. Winds will diminish for a time on Thu as low pres moves across the area. NW gales of 35-40kt are then expected in the wake of the low Thu night/Fri. Winds will diminish over the weekend, becoming light for Sun. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Friday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084- 085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Winds were a little slow to get going, but finally have in the Advisory area. Higher gusts should continue to develop. Will let the Advisory go as is through 7 p.m. then end. Band of showers to our west, will be timed in our forecast using the 17z HRRR, 12z ARW, and previous hourly grids in house. Band of showers and isolated storms will move into southeast MO late today, and then move west to east across the area tonight. Gusty winds will likely continue. However, with a convective element in play, no Advisory extension planned. Some of the convection could mix increasing 950-850mb winds to the surface, and translate into pockets of high wind gusts, maybe. Both strong shear and weak buoyancy may be a hindrance to the modest convection and overall severe potential. Will issue a strongly worded Wind Advisory for the entire area Thursday. Still some question marks as far as a High Wind Warning. The NAM soundings and HRRR data keeps us just below a warning, with a slower eastward movement (NAM) of the clouds and precip. However the new GFS looks like it did 3 days ago or so, reverting back to a deeper mix layer and warning level gusts (58 mph or greater). We will let the midnight shift fine tune, and upgrade if needed. Seems like the area of greatest concern will run north of a Cape Girardeau MO, to Evansville, IN line, including the I-64 corridor. The mid shift will still have 5-6 hours of lead time on a potential warning. The Advisory will run from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. CDT. Winds will trend down in speed toward sunset. Through the morning hours Thursday, along and east of the Ohio and Wabash, convection should regenerate and increase as it moves east. Severe storms cannot be ruled out, as once again we will have a high shear environment. Question mark is (again) instability. One difference with this forecast data vs. recent events is, it shows us jumping into the lower 70s through the morning, with sfc-5k/ft lapse rates rising to 8 C/km and above. Damaging winds and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out primarily from southwest IN into west KY. SEMO and much of southern IL will likely miss out on most of the main frontal action. By afternoon, lingering convection will be pushing out of our eastern counties, paving the way for a dry and cooler Thursday night. We went closer to warmer MOS for highs Thursday given the strong mixing and return sun for some areas. Storm total QPF is slightly higher than previously forecast. 1/2 to 1" possible north of Route 13, with 1-1.5" possible south into west KY and SEMO. However, other than isolated issues, not expecting too many issues overall. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Surface high pressure will build into the central/southern Plains on Friday. West to northwest winds will bring colder air into our region, and we will see unseasonably cool temperatures Friday through Saturday night. The high will move over the PAH forecast area Saturday night, and light south winds across our region by Sunday will result in moderating temperatures. Models show a weak cold front moving across our region late Sunday. This may produce a few sprinkles or light showers in our northeast counties Sunday afternoon, and went with slight chances in these areas. Another surface high will move from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday night, keeping our region dry with near seasonal temperatures. For Tuesday into Wednesday, models show and mid/upper level trof and a potential weak cold front approaching our area. Included some slight chances for showers across our area Tuesday afternoon, with better chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are not in sync with timing yet, so for now kept pops maxed in the chance category. With && .AVIATION... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 VFR to occasional MVFR conditions anticipated through tonight, as a band of showers and isolated storms will move west to east across the area. Gusty south winds will persist as well. A lull in the convection is anticipated late tonight, then redevelopment is expected early Thursday morning mainly over southeast IL, west KY and southwest IN, moving quickly east through the morning. Some storms may be strong to severe. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-080-081-084- 085-088-089-092>094. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>022. && $$ Update...GM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
915 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A deep low pressure system in the central United States will track into southeast Canada, while pushing a strong cold front through the Mid Atlantic region on Friday. High pressure builds into the region behind the front by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 910 PM EDT Wednesday... Evening soundings continue to show dry air in the mid/low levels this evening with mostly a high cloud shield crossing the region associated with a weak upper vort axis east of the main front to the west. Still appears guidance too fast to moisten up the low levels overnight espcly given only weak upslope flow toward morning. This supported by most short term solutions including the latest HRRR in having little rainfall across the southwest until Thursday morning at the earliest so trimmed back pops some overnight. Otherwise should be mostly cloudy with some breaks late which should allow low temps to fall off a bit more. However not nearly as cold as the last couple nights, with lows mainly in the 40s except 30s in the valleys. Previous discussion as of 133 PM EDT Wednesday... High-res models showing more mid/high cloud coverage this afternoon than the synoptic models. Think the high-res is a little overdone in the east, so blended the Hi-ResARW with the NAN and CMC to account for more clouds thru afternoon in the west, with less in the east. Going to see high pressure work offshore this evening and southerly flow increases gradually while dewpoints start to creep up from the 20s/30s through the 40s by Thursday afternoon. For rainfall chances, Nam and High-res models paint more in the NC mountains late tonight into Thursday while synoptic models are slower. Will add some sprinkles/isolated showers across the southern Blue Ridge late tonight. Southwest flow increase Thursday while deep surface low moves from the central Plains into the upper midwest. A frontal boundary will reach the MS River by late afternoon. At this time, expect scattered showers forming along the Blue Ridge south of Floyd by afternoon with best coverage across the NC mountains per upslope. Winds will start to pick up across the higher terrain but strongest low level jet pushes across the central Appalachians into Ohio, so gusts should be under 45 mph. A few showers should also spill east ahead of the front into WV by dusk. Cloud cover increases and should offset the warm advection somewhat. We will experience temps above normal Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s across the Blue Ridge into the New River and Greenbrier Valley, to mid to upper 60s across the western slopes of of WV into far SW VA where southerly flow is going to produce some downslope warming. Mid to upper 60s will prevail from the Roanoke Valley east to the piedmont around Lynchburg, with around 70 across the far east from Farmville VA to Danville to Reidsville. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... As a weakening upper level trof moves into our region Friday night and Saturday, a strong cold front moves through Friday afternoon. Model and ensemble trends have shown an increasing trend in instability and shear in advance of this system across the VA southside and northern Piedmont of NC. Continued to carry chances of thunderstorm in this region, and there is non-zero threat for localized severe weather in the far southeast portion of our area if enough instability can be realized.CIPS historical analog guidance shows a small probability of severe wx in the far southeast. Confidence is still low about the amount of cloud cover forecast which may limit potential instability. Temperatures will we well above normal in advance of the front as 1000-850 mb thicknesses soar.Continued to lean on the warm side of guidance on Friday, especially in the east. Behind the front, models are also trending stronger with pressure rises and low level winds. Using a local program based on the MET and MAV guidance, peak wind gusts are expected to remain below advisory criteria but 30-40 MPH gusts are expected,especially in the mountains Friday night/early Saturday. Upslope snow showers will commence in the wake of this front across the western slopes Friday night into the first half of Saturday, but forecast soundings show saturation doesn`t occur in the favorable dendritic grow zone, so snow should be very light with accumulations less than an inch. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday with much cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday.. The deterministic long-range models are in general agreement that an upper level trof will be in place across the eastern U.S. for most of the long term period, before transitioning to a zonal or even southwest flow aloft by Tuesday in advance of a potentially vigorous northern stream system by mid-week. There still are some important differences in the models, including the amplitude of a deepening trof Sunday night into early Monday with the GFS, and even to a greater extent, the Canadian model, indicating a deeper and wetter solution versus the 00Z/13 ECMWF and even the FV3-GFS. Will continue to keep a chance of upslope snow showers with this feature Sunday night/early Monday. The next chance of precipitation will arrive toward the end of the long term period. Temperatures should remain at or below normal for much of the long term period with the upper trof in place, with some moderation by Wednesday. GEFS forecasts show 850mb temps 1-2 standard deviations below average from Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... Expect VFR conditions at TAF sites for the bulk of the valid period. High clouds will continue to blanket the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic while return flow around high pressure to our east starts pushing moisture into the Blue Ridge overnight. This will result in some upslope clouds along the Ridge with a few sprinkles/drizzle especially along the southern Ridge. Some of the ridges along the southern Blue ridge, especially into northwest North Carolina will be obscured by the clouds and may have MVFR visibilities in fog early Thursday. However, TAF sites will remain on the periphery and maintain VFR. As Thursday wears on, expect cigs to lower to MVFR along and west of the Blue Ridge. A low level jet increases from the southwest tonight, so ridges above 4000 feet may have gusts from 30 to 35 knots. The gusty conditions will encompass the lower elevations including TAF sites as well by the afternoon. Confidence is above average for all forecast elements. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A cold front will bring the next chance of rain along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities late Thursday night into Friday. After the frontal passage, scattered rain and snow showers could be possible in the western mountains during Friday night into Saturday. Conditions will improve to VFR late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure returns. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 130 AM EDT Monday... KFCX Doppler radar in Floyd county will be down for maintenance March 11-15, 2019. The WSR-88D Radar operated by NOAA National weather Service in Blacksburg Virginia will be out of service through approximately March 15 for the refurbishment of the transmitter. Although the form, fit and function of the transmitter will remain the same, old breakers and cables original to the radar will be replaced with modern fuses and new cables. This will keep the 20- year- old radar operating smoothly for another 20 years. This transmitter update is the second major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades and replacements that will keep our nation`s radars viable into the 2030s. NOAA National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $150 million in the seven year program. The first project was the installation of the new signal processor. The two remaining projects are the refurbishing of the pedestal and equipment shelters. The Service Life Extension Program will be completed in 2022. During the downtime, adjacent radars include KRLX, KLWX, KGSP, KMRX, KRAX and KAKQ. For direct access to any of these surrounding radar sites, go to the following web page: https:/ && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...DS/PH AVIATION...MBS/WP EQUIPMENT...KK