Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/12/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall south of the area as high pressure
builds into the region through midweek. Another front will come
through late tonight and early Tuesday morning, ushering in
drier air and providing fair weather through Wednesday.
Increasing moisture and a cold front will move through late
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Cold front continues moving southward with a weak disturbance
crossing the eastern Midlands. A few showers remain in the
eastern Midlands and will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours. IR satellite imagery shows some clearing
beginning to push into the Upstate. Overnight clouds will
continue exiting the forecast area with partly to mostly clear
skies over the area by daybreak. Overnight low temperatures will
range from the low 40s north to the upper 40s in the
southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid/upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS through
Wednesday as an upper low lifts into the Great Plains. Upper energy
will move through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface,
high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift toward Delmarva and
off the coast by Wednesday evening. A relatively dry air mass
will be in place for Tuesday with precipitable water values
generally around half an inch or less. Expect a dry day on
Wednesday as well despite moisture deepening slightly.
Northeasterly surface winds Tuesday should promote temperatures
a few degrees cooler than Monday with highs in the middle 60s
to around 70. A little warmer Wednesday with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s
Tuesday night and upper 40s to lower 50s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF appear to be in relatively good agreement
through the extended. Upper ridge axis will shift off the east
coast Thursday as an upper low over the Plains opens up and
lifts northeastward. A warm front will lift northward through
the area Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Moisture
will deepen across the forecast area Thursday into Friday with
precipitable water values climbing to an inch and a half. The
greatest chance for precipitation still appears to be on Friday
along and ahead of the front. Thunderstorms also appear
possible given favorable diurnal timing. The cold front should
make its way from the Appalachians across the forecast area on
Friday before stalling. Broad troughing will continue over the
eastern half of the CONUS through the weekend. Surface high
pressure will build into the region from the middle of the CONUS
with drier and cooler weather expected over the weekend. An
item of uncertainty is how far south the front will push before
stalling and whether it will remain close enough to affect our
weather as a series of upper impulses roll through.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period.
Much of the mid-level cloudiness associated with a shortwave
trough has shifting east of the terminals. Surface high pressure
moving from the Ohio River Valley to the mid-Atlantic Region
will direct a dry flow into the forecast area. Some wind
associated with the high building to the north should help
prevent fog during the early morning hours despite nocturnal
cooling. The MAV and MET MOS plus most SREF members and HRRR
maintain VFR conditions. The MAV and MET MOS support wind light
becoming northeast about 8 knots around 13z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry high pressure is forecast to
dominate through Wednesday. A frontal system may bring flight
restrictions Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
643 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
...00z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
Latest sfc analysis was indicating a ridge axis occupying much of
the mid to upper MS RVR Valley into the southwestern GRT LKS, while
some lee Rockies side troffiness was taking shape acrs eastern CO.
This while the mid week closed upper low storm system was seen on
water vapor imagery lurking just off the northwestern Baja. This now
well advertised system still on track to make for a milder mid week
with rounds of rain fed up through the region, and brisk winds on
either side of it`s passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
Tonight...Bouts of both sfc and upper ridging to slide east-
southeastward acrs the southwestern GRT LKS tonight. Inherent light
winds and mainly clear skies may foster at least some patchy fog
development over the lingering snow fields along and north of the
I80 corridor. The HRRR even suggests some dense pockets, but for now
will just introduce patchy fog in these areas and see how it
develops as the evening/overnight progress. lows will range from the
upper teens/low 20s over the deeper snowpack areas of the northwest,
to around 30 or the upper 20s in the far south.
Tuesday...As the sfc ridge slides acrs the eastern OH RVR Valley,
LLVL troffiness and amplifying steering southwesterlies aloft take
shape acrs the plains. While south to southeasterly sfc winds
strengthen to 10-20 MPH by afternoon, impressive southerly to
southwesterly low level jet of 40-50 KTS will shuttle up acrs the
region by late afternoon. Thus the warm moist conveyor will be
streaming in off the western Gulf and up the plains and toward the
upper MS RVR Valley. Plenty of saturation of the column that need to
take place, but should do so from the west as the late morning and
afternoon progresses. So, expect increasing shower activity initially
elevate in nature to spread acrs the area from the west-southwest
from late morning and through the afternoon, with most areas that
mange to get measurable rain receiving 0.15 or an inch or less. Will
not mention it, but a low chance for some elevated thunder embedded
in the showers/rain acrs the western CWA from mid to late afternoon.
the extent of evapo-cooling, cloud cover and precip will battle
increasing warm air advection processes to make a rather tricky high
temp fcst for Tue. Will play it more conservatively, but a few
models suggest widespread low to mid 50s acrs the snow-less areas
along and south of I80. The far northwest may be held down in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
Another significant storm system will impact the Midwest Tuesday
night through Thursday. Two rounds of rain will be seen; the
heaviest rain looks to occur Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening. Winds could be quite strong with the storm system as well.
Bottom Line Up Front
A flood watch has been issued for areas generally west of a line
from Dubuque to Keosauqua from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. The combination of rain and snow melt places this area at
risk for flooding. Depending upon how the overall situation evolves,
the flood watch may be expanded in time and space.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
Assessment...high confidence on rain occurring. Low confidence on
amounts
The first part of the storm system moves through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Overall the rainfall looks to be light
to moderate with the better amounts over the northwest half of the
area.
The warmer air moving north across the snow field should generate
some fog as well Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Unstable air moving in aloft may allow a few rumbles of thunder to
be seen generally west of a Manchester, IA to Memphis, MO line
Tuesday night.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
Assessment...high confidence
The main event occurs Wednesday afternoon through Thursday when the
main storm system moves through the area. Heavy rain with
thunderstorms is likely Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be well above normal Wednesday through Thursday
which will promote considerable snow melt across the snow field.
This snow melt combined with heavy rain over nearly frozen ground
would run off quickly into area waterways.
The area most at risk for thunderstorms is generally south and east
of a line from Sterling, IL to Memphis, MO.
Currently we are not anticipating any severe storms Wednesday
afternoon or evening. However, some of the stronger storms may
produce some small hail.
Thursday night on...
Thursday night and Friday
Assessment...medium to high confidence
The main cold front sweeps through the area Thursday night with
colder air arriving late Thursday night into Friday. Winds will
likely be quite strong Thursday night into Friday as the colder air
moves into the area.
Light rain Thursday evening will end from west to east, mixing with
and changing over to light snow before ending Friday morning. Any
snow accumulations would be a trace.
The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops Thursday night
with slight chance pops east of the Mississippi Friday morning.
Friday night through Sunday
Assessment...low to medium confidence
Like yesterday, the global models have two upper level disturbances
moving through the area; one Friday night and another late Saturday
night into Sunday. The question is will there be enough moisture
present to generate precipitation with the associated forcing.
The current model consensus has dry conditions Friday night through
Sunday. However, I would not be surprised if isolated showers
develop especially with any daytime heating.
Sunday night into Monday
Assessment...low confidence
Yet another weak upper level disturbance will move through the area.
Moisture will likely be very limited so the chances of having any
precipitation occurring is low.
Right now the model consensus has slight chance pops for part of the
area Sunday night and dry conditions for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
High pressure acrs the region maintaining VFR conditions and light
sfc wind regime into the overnight. The catch will be if some
patchy MVFR or even IFR fog can develop under the clear skies and
light/variable winds over the lingering snow cover areas along
and north of I80. This would impact mainly the CID and DBQ TAFs,
but MLI may also be close. South to southeast sfc winds will
increase to 10 KTs or higher by late Tue morning, with thickening
clouds from the west as the afternoon progresses. The first round
of rain will look to spread in from the west by mid to late
afternoon, bring with it MVFR CIGs and VSBYs to CID before 00z
Wed, with a low chance for IFR CIGs there. The rain may get into
the VCNTY of all the other TAF sites through 00z as well, but VFR
to higher level MVFR conditions should prevail until later in the
evening. ..12..
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019
The heavy rain and snow melt from Saturday is well accounted for
in the river models. Temperatures rising above freezing today will
promote some additional melt before temperatures drop below
freezing tonight.
The new river forecasts this morning now include part of the next
storm system. This additional rainfall has resulted in more rivers
going into flood.
Important note; the river forecasts Tuesday morning will have
nearly all of the rain from the mid-week storm system included
which is expected to be heavy, especially Wednesday afternoon and
night. Users should expect to see a jump, possibly significant,
with the river forecasts that are issued on Tuesday.
Mississippi river:
Flood watches were issued today from New Boston, IL down through
Keokuk, IA. The flood warning continues for Gregory Landing with
higher river levels expected.
Upstream of New Boston, IL general rises are forecast along the
length of the river.
Rock river:
Flood warnings continue along the entire length of the river from
just downstream of Sterling/Rock Falls to the mouth.
A new ice jam developed Sunday evening near Lundeen`s Landing
back upstream to Cleveland. Temperatures above freezing may cause
water levels near the ice jam to fluctuate rapidly.
The situation with the ice jams between Lyndon and Prophetstown has
not changed over the past 24 hours. Route 78 remains open but water
is at the edges of the pavement. Rainfall and temperatures above
freezing may cause water levels near the ice jams to fluctuate
rapidly.
Wapsipinicon river:
Heavy rainfall and snow melt from the weekend continues to work
into the river. Based on new data, a flood warning was issued for
the Wapsipinicon river near De Witt with moderate flooding
expected by late this week.
Pecatonica river:
The flood warning continues for Freeport. The river continues to
rise and will approach moderate flood by the weekend.
Iowa and English rivers:
The flood watches for Marengo and Lone Tree have been converted to
flood warnings as the runoff in the river system is now better
known. Additional flood warnings were issued for Wapello due to
routed flow forecast to move downstream.
The flood warning continues for the Oakville area on the Iowa
river.
On the English river, flood warnings were issued for the Kalona
area. An initial crest below flood stage from the heavy rain on
Saturday has occurred. Routed flow and additional snow melt from
upstream will push the river back above flood stage Wednesday
evening.
North Skunk and Skunk rivers:
The heavy rain and snow melt from Saturday has pushed the North
Skunk river into flood with an initial crest around 17 feet
tonight. A further rise into moderate flood will be seen later
this week with the rainfall from the next weather system.
At Augusta, an initial crest at major flood stage has occurred.
The additional rainfall with the next storm system will push the
Skunk river at Augusta back into major flood.
Fox river:
In Van Buren county the Fox river remains out of its banks from
the Mt. Sterling area upstream due to a combination of heavy rain,
snow melt and possible ice jams. Emergency management reports that
some roads remain closed near and upstream of Mt. Sterling.
La Moine river:
The La Moine river near Colmar remains in moderate flood due to
heavy rainfall over the weekend. The river is forecast to fall
below flood stage on Wednesday but rain from the next storm system
may delay the fall below flood stage.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
for Benton-Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-
Jones-Keokuk-Linn-Van Buren-Washington.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
602 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2019
A complex storm system is set to move through eastern Utah and
western Colorado over the course of the next two days. This
multifaceted storm will bring heavy snow to the mountains, rain to
valley locations, and eventually much colder air from the
northwest by Wednesday. Many winter weather headlines have been
issued this afternoon lasting through Thursday morning. Be sure to
check the latest WSWGJT product for snow totals and timing
specific to your location.
Low pressure currently sits off the northern coast of the Baja
this Monday afternoon. To the east of the low, strong south to
southwesterly flow continues aloft. Surface heating over southern
Utah and southwest Colorado has resulted in low end instability
values on the order of 100-300 j/kg, and the potential exists for
a few isolated instances of thunder with any showers that develop
late this afternoon and early evening along the US 160 corridor.
Overnight, a region of difluent flow aloft to the northeast of
the main low pressure system will approach the Four Corners
region. This will support the development of a broad region of
precipitation over southeast Utah, southwest Colorado, and areas
to the south. With strong southerly flow continuing in the lower
levels, temperatures will remain warm, with 700mb values in the 0
to +2C range. Snow levels will run high, with mostly rain falling
below 9000 feet tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
By midnight Wednesday morning, the main area of low pressure will
pass east of the Four Corners. At the same time, a shortwave
trough will dive southward through the Great Basin. An impressive
phasing of these two systems will occur over the central Rockies,
and explosive cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the eastern
high plains. As this happens, cold air will filter in from the
northwest over the western slope of the Rockies. This will lower
snow levels throughout the day. Northerly flow on the back side of
the Great Plains low-pressure system will continue to transport
moisture southward into western Colorado, and moderate snowfall is
expected to continue in the mountains through Wednesday and
Wednesday night before ending early on Thursday morning.
Forecast guidance in the short term is very consistent across all
major models, both high-res and global. Overall, the 12z forecast
package did increase precipitation totals across the board. This
upward trend was key in the decision point to issue Winter Storm
Warnings for much of the central mountains. While snow levels are
initially forecast to run around 9000 feet, cold air coming in
from the north will drop the snow to the valley floors along the
US 40 corridor by mid-morning Wednesday. We have opted not to
issue Winter Weather Advisories for this region for now - if
enough moisture and cold air continues to be seen in evening model
runs, advisories may be needed for this region.
One other aspect of this storm that should be noted is the
opportunity for convection on Tuesday afternoon. Both the NAM Nest
and 36-hour HRRR indicate a fair amount of instability present
from the San Juan mountains south to the New Mexico border. 500 to
almost 1000 j/kg of CAPE combined with 30-40 knots of speed shear
could result in some linear convective elements developing in the
early afternoon hours. While the majority of thunderstorm
development will remain south in New Mexico, it would not be out
of the question for some small hail (less than 1/2 inch) or gusty
winds to track from Cortez to Pagosa Springs before sunset on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2019
Snow will continue to fall Thursday morning under a northerly flow
as the storm system departs to the east. Overall, snow rates are
expected to be light but some areas to watch for continued
accumulations are the eastern Uintas and northwest San Juans in the
Uncompaghre Gorge that are more favored orographically under
northerly flow. H7 temperatures will be in that favored dendritic
growth zone (-12C to -14C) which given the remnant moisture and
orographic lift could result in additional efficient snow making
through early Thursday afternoon. Something to keep an eye on as
current highlites go through Thursday morning. Most areas will see
drier conditions Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds out
west and slides over the region by Friday. Models are showing a
weak shortwave dropping down the west coast and forming a closed low
over SoCal and Arizona by Friday evening, forming a bit of a brief
Rex Block. This low will open up as it passes south of the Four
Corners through Arizona and New Mexico on Saturday, potentially
generating some additional showers for the southern mountains and
valleys. Northerly flow from this Rex Block will try to suppress
this moisture from working northward so we shall see who wins that
battle. The GFS is generating some showers while the EC keeps
this shortwave further south, resulting in dry conditions. Expect
mostly dry and sunny conditions for most areas over the weekend as
high pressure dominates out west and looks to rebuild over the
region Sunday through early next week. Some weak shortwaves will
overtop the ridge and pass through the Northern Rockies, only
amounting to some passing high clouds from time to time.
Temperatures will start warming up Friday through early next week,
pushing near to slightly above normal values for some areas by
Sunday into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2019
VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail for most areas this evening
with scattered to broken skies and variable cigs. Showers will
increase across the south this evening into the overnight with ILS
breakpoints being reached at KDRO and KTEX at times. Scattered
showers will develop across much of the region by Tuesday morning
with more numerous showers Tuesday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are also possible with reduced cigs/vsby in showers.
Expect rain at the lower elevation TAF sites with snow at higher
elevation sites.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday
for COZ004-012.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
COZ003-009-010-013-017.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ018.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Wednesday night for
COZ019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday
for UTZ023-025.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
UTZ028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1014 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move through late tonight and
early Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in from the
northwest through Wednesday then slide offshore Thursday. The
next front will impact the region Friday into Saturday with high
pressure building in from the northwest Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM Monday...Latest infrared satellite showing skies
starting to clear over the far northern zones as drier air
surges in from the north behind frontal boundary. Radar shows
all of the weak returns have moved to near the coast. While a
sprinkle is possible in the next hour or two, no measurable
precipitation is anticipated and the forecast remains dry.
Cooler air should start to filter into the region after midnight
tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s by
morning. Minimal changes needed to the current forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...High pressure will continue to build in from
the northwest Tuesday as upper trough pushes off the Eastern US.
Temps several degrees cooler with modest CAA. Low level
thickness values and mostly sunny skies support highs ranging
from the low 50s along the Outer Banks to low 60s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Dry weather is expected for the period with
the exception of a chance of showers late in the week.
Tue night through Thu...High pressure will be nearly on top of the
region Tue night into Wed as an upper level ridge amplifies
overhead. With mainly calm and clear conditions Tuesday night,
favored cooler guidance which results in forecast lows around
freezing. Highs this period [NEW HIGHS HERE] low 50s NE coast to
lower 60s SW. The high slides offshore Thursday with continuing dry
weather. Temps increase with the aid of S winds as WAA begins ahead
of another approaching cold front. Highs expected to be in the low
to mid 70s inland to 60s most beaches.
Fri...Low pressure initially deepening over the south central
U.S. will occlude and race over the Great Lakes Thursday,
quickly pushing a cold front east over the Gulf states and
abutting the Appalachians Thursday night. As the low lifts into
Quebec the front is forecast to slow down as it makes its way
towards E NC. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in excellent agreement
timing FROPA and precip, with the best chcs peaking Fri night
and ending from W to E Saturday. Despite this, the GFS is
notably wetter than the ECMWF likely due to slightly stronger
upper level support; that being said total precip amounts still
appear meager. Kept PoPs at high end chance for now because of
these differences. Models have been consistent the last few runs
suggesting some weak instability mainly west of Hwy 17, and did
mention a slight chance thunderstorm or two in these locales.
With warm SW flow continuing Friday highs will reach into the
mid to upper 70s inland.
Sat through Mon...Front pushes offshore Saturday with high
pressure building in from the NW thru Monday. Highs Saturday
should reach into the low to mid 60s for most locales, cooling
to the mid to upper 50s Sunday. Guidance is hinting at the
possibility of some precip for mainly coastal areas Monday but
with large model differences regarding upper level pattern
evolution and a lack of run-to- run consistency have opted to
keep the forecast dry for now.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/...
As of 710 PM Monday...Widespread mid and high clouds across the
region should gradually clear late tonight behind a frontal
trough as strong high pressure builds in from the northern
Mississippi Valley. Sunny skies expected for Tuesday with VFR
conditions prevailing throughout the TAF cycle.
Long Term /Tue night through Saturday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Prolonged period of mainly VFR this period
as high pres builds in thru Wed then slides offshore Thu. Dry
weather expected with sub-VFR possible in the early mornings
with patchy fog, especially Thursday with increasing moisture.
As moisture increases ahead of a cold front late Fri will see
some shra develop with chc of brief sub VFR. Conditions return
to VFR Saturday behind the departing front.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 1015 PM Monday...No major changes needed to the current
forecast. Winds continue light and somewhat variable at late
evening. Good agreement from the HRRR and 3km NAM showing a
good surge of northerly winds developing later tonight, in the
08z-09z range and working down the coast. Winds will be
northerly at 15-25 knots with seas building to 3-6 feet. SCA`s
were issued earlier for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.
This SCA should be fairly short-lived as winds and seas diminish
fairly quickly by midday on Tuesday.
Long Term /Tue night through Saturday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...High pres builds twrd the area Tue night
into Wed with N/NE winds 10-15 knots gradually veering NE/E and
diminishing to 10 kt or less with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. S
winds 10 to 15 kts expected Thu as the high moves offshore with
seas 3 ft or less. SSW winds increase to 15 to 25 knots Friday
ahead of approaching cold front. Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet
Fri. Front passes offshore Sat with winds veering NW at 15-20
knots early before diminishing to 10 knots or less by evening.
Seas gradually subside Sat to 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-
156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/MS
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/MS
MARINE...CTC/CQD/MS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
753 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a trof from the Great
Lakes to New England moving e as a broad upstream ridge shifts e
across s central Canada. On the backside of the departing trof, a
final shortwave along with 850mb temps of -14 to -15C supported
light LES/flurries from nw Upper MI into eastern Upper MI today.
That pcpn has been diminishing/ending from w to e under developing
waa and drying air mass. Skies have also been slowly clearing out
from sw to ne today.
A quiet period of weather is on the way tonight/Tue. Upstream mid-
level ridging will shift e, reaching the Great Lakes on Tue, while
at the sfc, high pres currently centered over eastern IA moves to
the Upper Ohio Valley. Although center of sfc high will pass well s
of the area tonight, still expect a good radiational cooling night
under clear skies (lingering clouds currently from the Keweenaw
roughly se to around Escanaba and points e will depart over the next
several hrs). Kept min temps close to the inherited fcst which puts
temps at lowest end of guidance. This is especially true over the s
central which has best chc of winds being decoupled thru the night.
Temps should fall to around 0F there with a few of the traditional
cold spots as low as -5 to perhaps -10F. Winds will continue to stir
some across the w and n near Lake Superior. Min temps will be in the
teens there.
A sunny start to the day on Tue will give way to some increase in
clouds from the w in the aftn under waa/isentropic ascent ahead of a
shortwave moving from SD to northern MN. Depending on how quickly
the clouds arrive, higher sun angle at this time of year working on
the lower albedo forested terrain will aid warming. If increase in
clouds is slow, temps over at least portions of the w will rise into
the upper 40s. For now, kept max temps generally in the low/mid 40s.
Southerly flow up Lake MI and off the frozen Bay of Green Bay will
keep temps over the e lower. Temps close to the shore won`t be any
higher than around 32F. Pcpn associated with the approaching
shortwave should hold off until after 00z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019
Rain still expected Tue night into Thu night when warm, moist air
surges into the region ahead of a strong low pressure system. Temps
are looking warmer for Tue night, so only chance of freezing rain is
over the east for a short time, resulting in a glaze at most.
Temperatures will top out in upper 30s to mid 40s Wed and in the 40s
Thu with lows Wed night above freezing. Dew points will also be
above freezing. Rain is expected more often than not during the
period, with potential for 0.75-1.50" of liquid. Uncertain on
exactly how much runoff into streams will occur, but at this point
expecting the snow pack to soak much of the precip up. Smaller
stream and upper reaches of stream could see small rises. Mainly
impacts expected at this time are pooling/ponding of water on
sections of roads with poor drainage and potential for ice jams.
Precip turns to snow Thu night and Fri as the rapidly weakening low
and another shot of upper level energy shifts across the area.
Plenty of uncertainty in how much snow falls, but not looking like
anything too significant at this point. Colder temps Fri through the
weekend will, for the most part, put a halt to the melt, leaving us
with even more liquid in the very compressed snow pack.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 745 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019
With a dry air mass spreading into Upper MI, VFR conditions will
prevail thru this fcst period. Expect LLWS to develop at KIWD late
tonight into Tue morning as a sw low-level jet strengthens to
35-40 knots 1 kft off the sfc.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 403 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019
The next possibility of gales will be late Thu night/Fri in the wake
of low pres tracking ne across the northern Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson