Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
926 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Based on new data and trends, any chance of freezing drizzle
occurring rest of tonight would be most favored across the far
southern counties. Therefore, I`ve removed another tier of
counties from the advisory...roughly areas south of I-80 and
north of Burlington. Still some uncertainty on whether freezing
drizzle will occur in the far south, as not many reports
with satellite also showing opportunity for more in cloud ice for
at least part of the overnight. But still some slick spots from
the earlier snowfall possible far south in addition to a chance
of freezing drizzle, thus will keep ongoing advisory for now
Burlington on southward. Main roads in Iowa are reported as
seasonal driving but still a few slick spots possible on those
secondary or untreated roads far southeast Iowa into northeast
Missouri, and also west central Illinois where report of patchy
covering in Hancock Co.
UPDATE Issued at 755 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Short term trends and looking drier rest of tonight with weak
ascent atop drier easterly low level flow, with mainly just some
flurries in limited low level moisture depth. This drying trend
continues bearing out in trends of past several runs of HRRR, and
other short term guidance. DVN 00z RAOB moisture depth is limited
with notable drying below 2-2.5kft thus casting uncertainty on
any drizzle, except perhaps portions of southern counties where
some lowering cloud bases exist of around 1kft and some weak WAA
persists. Per diminishing trends for any additional accums of
snow and non-favorable moisture depth for freezing drizzle, and
with latest clear road report most of E IA and IL I`ve cancelled
the winter weather advisory for the I-80 corridor. Have kept it
going in the south for now where some chance for patchy freezing
drizzle is possible, and continue to monitor trends for any
additional cancellations.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Ohio Valley into the
upper Midwest as a storm system continues to develop in southeast
Colorado. Dew points were in the single digits and teens from the
Great Lakes into the northern Plains. Dew points in the 20s and
higher ran from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains on south to
the Gulf Coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Bottom Line Up Front
Will keep the current headlines as is. There are questions whether
or not any freezing drizzle will be seen in the I-80 corridor
tonight. However, given the two significant metro areas along I-80
will keep those headlines going for now. Further south DOT reports
show slick roads in southeast Iowa so those headlines look ok.
Late this afternoon and tonight
The dry air continues to win across roughly the northern half of the
area but the forcing and moisture have made inroads up to I-80 west
of the Quad Cities in the form of a band of snow that is slowly
moving east.
RAP trends has the band in the I-80 corridor making slow progression
to the east through late afternoon and gradually weakening by early
evening. Thus overall snowfall intensity in the band will decrease
with time. Further south overall snowfall intensity will continue to
weaken through sunset.
Tonight, as the atmosphere aloft dries out another round of forcing
will move through the area. While not completely certain, there a
mixture of freezing drizzle and very light snow should develop in
the near saturated lower atmosphere.
The area favored to see ice accumulation is generally south of I-80.
These amounts would be under 0.10 inches. In the I-80 corridor a
light glaze may or may not occur. Any additional snowfall tonight
would be a dusting at best.
After midnight the forcing moves east of the area. Thus any mixed
precipitation will end from west to east with areas west of the
Mississippi generally dry by sunrise Friday.
On Friday any lingering snow/freezing drizzle mix will end by mid-
morning leaving dry conditions for the rest of the day. The clouds
will persist all day as a layer of moisture will remain trapped
below a warm layer aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Active pattern into next week will feature two strong storm systems
capable of widespread significant rain, along with relatively warmer
temperatures throughout.
Friday night through Saturday night: Latest models have come into
close agreement with the upper low currently off the west coast
phasing with energy in the northwest, spinning up a lee cyclone
Friday. This surface low lifts northeast from KS through central
Iowa Saturday, into northern Lake Mi Saturday night. At the upper
levels, a negatively tilted trough concentrates an axis of strong
lift advancing northeast through the the forecast area Saturday,
especially through midday. With PW values unseasonably high in the
.75 to 1 inch range, this will likely send an axis of moderate to
locally heavy showers through the area. The fast movement of this
band should keep QPF in close to what model consensus has, or
roughly in a .5 to 1 inch range during the day. The strong upper
level forcing along with steep mid level lapse rates will sufficient
to produce at least scattered thunderstorms, which are kept in the
forecast.
Ahead of this, late Friday night, an initial round of strong 850 mb
warm advection will bring in light rain or drizzle from southwest to
northeast well after midnight. With surface temperatures initially
close to freezing, will have a low confidence mention of freezing
drizzle or light freezing rain north of I-80. Temperatures should be
nearly steady or even rise through the 30s on strengthening brisk
southeast winds.
Saturday night: The trailing dry slot will end the precipitation or
perhaps change it to light drizzle. Colder air wrapping into the
area from the west and only shallow moisture lingering will likely
end the precipitation before temperatures fall below freezing.
Strong westerly winds in the tight pressure gradient may push
advisory criteria with models conservatively suggesting 20 kts
sustained and 35 to 40 kts or greater gusts, looking at winds at the
top of the mixed layer late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
High pressure then follows for Sunday night into Monday with another
somewhat similar storm system setting up for Tue into Wed. Current
model trends have this tracking further northwest than the weekend
system and this would again be largely a rain maker with strong
winds. Based on low confidence thermal profiles, this is advertised
to start as snow in the initial warm advection band early Tuesday.
The bulk of the system would be rain and possible thunderstorms with
the strongest upper forcing Wed. With similar PW values as the
weekend system, this could bring another round of .5 to over 1 inch
of rain, which could contribute to river flooding as the hydro
system will be primed from the weekend rain. Wednesday`s highs, from
the mid 40s to mid 50s, may indeed be too cool, deepening on the
timing and track of the low.
Thursday looks a bit cooler with another round of light
precipitation possible in the afternoon as a lobe of vorticity is
shown rotating around the backside of Wednesday`s upper trough to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
MVFR to occasional IFR with bouts of light snow and possibly
freezing drizzle expected at BRL tonight. MLI, CID and DBQ will
start the evening VFR and expect lowering to MVFR especially at
CID and MLI, with a few flurries/very light snow and patchy
freezing drizzle possible. Much more uncertainty at DBQ on timing
of MVFR conditions due to drier air. Generally MVFR to VFR
conditions for CIGs expected on Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Ice jams and ice action continue to impact the Rock River,
especially from the Lyndon/Prophetstown areas downstream to Joslin.
Emergency management confirmed this morning that the high water
remains in place with flooding of farm land and water approaching
the edge of route 78 in the vicinity of Lyndon and Prophetstown.
An Areal Flood Warning thus remains in effect for the stretch of the
river from Lyndon downriver to Hillsdale, along the Rock Island
county border. High resolution satellite imagery from Wednesday
suggested there may be several ice jams and ice impacts along the
river.
At Joslin, a Flood Watch remains in effect for both the potential
for ice jam flooding and also possible rises above flooding from
rainfall events this weekend and next week. Potential rainfall of
.5 to 1 inch from each of the next two storm systems will extend the
threat of flooding to all tributary rivers and possibly the mainstem
Mississippi as well. Ice jams and ice action may also plague the
remaining tributary rivers as well.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for Des Moines-
Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for Hancock-
Henderson-McDonough-Warren.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for Clark-Scotland.
&&
$$
UPDATE...McClure
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...McClure
HYDROLOGY...Sheets
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
948 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Had to add some mixed wintry precip in our far south into the
early overnight.
Also, fog is a bigger concern as both LAMP data and HRRR seem to
focus at least our northwest quarter of the CWA with fog potential
as our stratus builds down. I beefed up the fog wording in the HWO
and in the forecast, but held off from the fog advisory as both
LAMP and HRRR were too aggressive at initiation, and I suspect
that dense fog will be more spotty and local in nature, but this
is a situation that must be monitored as sites may drop to one
quarter or less toward 8-11Z. Again, confidence was not high
enough to go with fog advisory. If sites to the northwest were
actually foggier I would have been more likely to issue the fog
advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
The main concern for the next 24-48 hours is the upcoming storm
system approaching from the southwest. This is a complicated
system for south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few
things to note.
Evolution:
This storm system is expected to move across the Four Corners
Region Friday afternoon/night with lee cyclogenesis deepening in
southeast Colorado. Precipitation will develop Friday night after
sunset with the low eventually tracking northeast across Kansas
and eventually into Iowa. Warm air advection ahead of this system
is the main concerning factor with how warm it will get.
Temperatures are expected to remain steady or warm briefly
overnight Friday into Saturday. A transition line will wobble
right over the forecast area, which is what makes this a tricky
event. After the system exits to the east, strong northwesterly
winds will move in. Mixing with these winds could cause
temperatures to rise during the day Saturday despite cold air
advection. Something else to watch.
Friday during the day/afternoon:
Low clouds are expected to persist tonight into Friday with the
potential for fog tonight. A concern looking at soundings across
the area is the potential for freezing drizzle starting before 00z
Saturday. The saturated depth with east winds eventually becoming
southeast with warm air advection and some lift could cause
freezing drizzle. Confidence was not high enough to put it in the
forecast, but definitely wanted to mention it here.
Precipitation Type:
What a mess! To start, soundings look to be mainly drizzle or
freezing drizzle prior to 6z Saturday, and forced drizzle as the
precipitation type. After 6z, soundings saturate and rain,
freezing rain, sleet or snow...a true wintry mix is the primary
precipitation type. With warmer temps, but not quite warm enough
to be all rain, this forecast has a bit more freezing rain and ice
accumulation that the prior forecast. This could be overdone, but
more on that below.
Snow Amounts and Ice Amounts:
Snow amounts have decreased quite a bit with the main
precipitation type being freezing rain or sleet. This system is
quick hitting and by the time the true cold air moves in, it will
be exiting, so feel the better chance for snow remains north an
inch or less in central Nebraska. Ice amounts with this forecast
are up to 2 tenths, this is quite a bit higher and somewhat more
scary than before...but am concerned this is way to high! I am not
Confidence we will have THAT much freezing rain during the event.
This whole event hinges on 2 degrees...and it`s the 2 degrees we
are wavering around. Ice is a definite possibility, which will
impact travel, but at this point am not expecting a lot of other
impacts due to ice loading.
Wind and Blowing Snow:
The winds during the bulk of the precipitation will be light, but
as the system exits Saturday morning, northwesterly winds will
pick up with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible. These winds could
cause additional blowing snow, even from old snow on the ground
that could impact roadways. Something to watch for.
Headlines:
No headlines are being issued on this shift, but see a Winter
Weather Advisory being issued tonight, and at the latest tomorrow
due to the ice potential. The best chance for this is for all
Nebraska counties, but cannot be ruled out for Kansas counties as
well. While the temperature is a concern for later periods, feel
that freezing drizzle and at least a glaze of ice from 00-6z
Saturday is a good possibility and at a minimum a headline needed
for that period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
The main concern during this period is the next storm system
looking to impact the area Monday night into Wednesday morning.
This storm system is a bit more concerning regarding the amount of
rain that may fall. While there are discrepancies among the
guidance in the timing and location and specific details of the
storm system as it impacts the Central Plains, there has been
fairly good agreement for a few days that this storm system is
going to bring rain to much of the area. This is concerning
specifically because as of Thursday morning, the frost depth in
Hastings is 25 inches and most locations across the area have
between 5 and 15 inches of snow on the ground (not counting
how the weekend system may impact this). With the ground frozen,
the main concern will be flooding due to most if not all of the
rain water being runoff. There is still a number of days until
this impacts us, but it is definitely something to watch.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Went pessimistic for visibility with expected light and variable
to upslope flow. Ceilings should also tank as the night wears on.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
944 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Ceilings lowering and the stronger winds starting relax so less
mixing. Will be issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for the areas
adjacent to Matagorda Bay through 9 am. Will probably need to
expand it and plan to do so piecemeal given the remaining winds
and webcams further up the coast still showing well over 6
miles...but eventually these too should come down. Updated the
forecast for a little cooler temperatures early this morning 1-4
am in the northeast then will probably level out or start warming
back up and to boost the cloud cover. Light drizzle will be
possible throughout the night as LLJ starts to strengthen and
gives the area a little stronger WAA pattern. Also looking at the
soundings could see some streamer showers develop near Matagorda
county toward sunrise and angle inland to the northeast.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019/
DISCUSSION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
Southerly wind flow will prevail during the TAF period,
transporting low level moisture across the region. There was a
break in the clouds today this afternoon and evening with the
northern TAF sites reporting VFR ceilings, however, IFR cloud
deck is expected to return tonight through Friday morning. Areas
of fog are forecast to develop overnight through Friday morning.
KGLS and KLBX may continue to see fog resulting in periods of
IFR-LIFR through late Friday morning due to sea fog forming and
expanding across the coastal areas.
Warm air advection pattern will continue tonight and Friday with
periods of showers affecting portions of the CWA. Also, local
pressure gradient will tighten Friday resulting in an increase in
wind speeds, with most sites possibly having winds at 10 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019/
DISCUSSION...
As of 3 PM, temperatures are in the mid 60s to low 70s with
dewpoints in the mid 60s area wide. Water vapor imagery shows a
pocket of drier air in the mid levels quickly eroding and moisture
values are on the rise. Radar imagery this afternoon continues to
show signs of drizzle and light rain mainly along and south of I-10.
Short term guidance such as the TT WRF has done an excellent job
with the placement of the precipitation today. Moving forward,
the TT WRF, ARW, and HRRR all show coverage lessening during the
overnight hours before picking back up around 10Z tomorrow and a
similar pattern like today unfolds yet again for tomorrow.
Rather zonal flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere can be
anticipated for the remainder of the day and through Friday out
ahead of a weak cold front that should approach the region on
Saturday. As a result, SE TX will remain under cloudy skies with the
chance for drizzle and showers through the remainder of the work
week. Another weak disturbance and additional isentropic upglide
will result in more showers tomorrow, with better chances for
coverage along and south of I-10 beginning in the morning hours and
spreading further inland tomorrow afternoon. With a warm air
advection pattern in place, onshore flow will continue to advect
in Gulf moisture, allowing precipitable water values (PWs) to
rise from less than an inch area wide to 1.1 to 1.3 inches by
Friday afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more divergent by Saturday morning, as
the trough axis swings across the Plains, struggling to find a
push to really dig southward. Forecast soundings show decent
instability parameters with favorable unstable lapse rates and a
cap at 800 mb that appears to erode by the afternoon hours
(especially in the latest NAM12 solution) Saturday. The NAM12 is
the also the fastest with its progression of this frontal
boundary, pushing it just north of I-10 by 18Z Saturday.
Interesting enough, the NAM12 is the driest model solution out of
the global guidance, producing only a bit of precipitation along
the boundary between 9-15Z in our far northern counties.
Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF solutions are more similar lagging
behind the NAM12 just slightly, and overall, producing more in
the way of rainfall along the boundary itself. Also worth
mentioning, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our NE zones
under a marginal risk for severe storms with the primary hazard
being damaging winds and possibly small hail. Additionally, the
850mb jet during does increase to between 50 to 60 kts Saturday
morning, weakening behind the boundary by Saturday late afternoon.
Therefore, at this the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
and risk of severe thunderstorms should remain NE of the forecast
area. Our northeastern counties from Brazos to northern Harris
into Liberty County and northeastward could see some strong storms
and potentially isolate severe storms with this feature.
Behind this frontal boundary, counties from Burleson to Houston
may see short-lived partly cloudy skies as drier air attempts to
build in early Sunday before mostly cloudy skies take back over.
This boundary will wobble north and south through the remainder
of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This boundary
will also act as a focusing mechanism for showers and
thunderstorms for the beginning of the work week. Because this
feature is never able to get the push it needs to clear the coast,
wet and cloudy conditions linger through the weekend and much of
early next week. The passage of our next cold front is forecast to
push through the area sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday. Still
plenty of uncertainty with the timing and strength of this
system. Recent model runs have the GFS the fastest with the
frontal passage, with the boundary oriented north-south and
progressing west to east across SE TX (reaching our eastern
counties by 12Z Wednesday), followed by the Canadian (reaching
eastern counties 15Z Wednesday), and finally the ECMWF (18-00Z
Wednesday).
Hathaway
MARINE...
The return of mostly light/moderate onshore winds this afternoon/to-
night will be favorable for the continued development of sea fog. A
Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the bays and the near
shore waters from the rest of this afternoon on through tomorrow at
noon. Visibilities should be decreasing further this evening and be
continued threat through the upcoming weekend (and then possibly in-
to the start of next week). Models have been trending with the idea
of stalling the next cold front (on Sat) over northern/central port-
ions of SE TX...with a second stronger front progged for late Tues/
early Weds which would clear the fog out. In the meantime, this app-
roaching front on Sat will help to tighten the gradient a bit tomor-
row and we could see brief SCEC conditions over the offshore waters.
Winds should be increasing once again late Mon/Tue/Tue night as the
next next cold front approaches from the west. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 78 67 76 55 / 30 20 50 50 0
Houston (IAH) 65 76 67 76 60 / 40 50 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 63 70 64 68 63 / 40 30 10 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...45
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
843 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Updated the forecast for precipitation trends and to trim back a
bit on snow/ice amounts overnight.
The latest surface analysis indicated low pressure near the SE
KS/NE OK border, with a trough extending northeast toward west
central IL. The snow has tapered off in central Illinois, although
a few bands of light snow remain in southeast IL.
The water vapor satellite loops show a mid-upper level wave
approaching central MO at 830 pm. This feature is expected to
shift eastward and provide enough support for redevelopment of
light snow in central IL between 10 pm and midnight - mainly south
of Springfield-Mattoon line. Areas to the north should see a
little light snow late tonight, but amounts will only be a few
tenths of an inch.
Forecast soundings from the HRRR and NAM continue to show that as
the wave passes and the mid levels become dry, we will lose ice
crystals aloft after 09z(3 am) in central IL. With plenty of
moisture in the low levels, this should lead to light freezing
rain/freezing drizzle. Not expecting this to happen in eastern/SE
IL til just before daybreak. Overall, the amount of time favorable
for freezing drizzle will be fairly limited, so icing should be
minor - but still enough to create slippery conditions in spots
for the AM commute. Thus, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory
going overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Warm advection snow band remains in place along and north of a
Macomb...to Decatur...to Paris line this afternoon...while upstream
radar imagery shows dry conditions across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri. As has been advertised by the HRRR all day, the band
will rapidly dissipate from west to east over the next 3-4
hours...leading to a lull in the precip early this evening. As low
pressure currently over southeast Kansas slides eastward, wintry
precip will re-develop later this evening into the overnight
hours...with the precip most concentrated along/south of the I-70
corridor. With thermal profiles warming and a loss of ice crystals
aloft, think light snow will mix with and/or change to freezing
drizzle tonight. Storm total snow accumulations will generally range
from 1 to 2 inches across the heart of the KILX CWA...with
isolated amounts up to 3 inches. Ice accumulations will remain
under one tenth of an inch, but will be significant enough to
create slippery driving conditions. As a result, the Winter
Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 10am Friday. After
some lingering light snow/freezing drizzle Friday morning, dry
weather will return by afternoon. Despite an end to the precip,
boundary layer moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion
will ensure an overcast day. Due to the clouds and snow cover, high
temperatures will remain below guidance in the middle to upper
30s across all but the far SE where readings will top the
40-degree mark.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
After a brief respite Friday afternoon/night, the next storm
system will quickly progress into the region on Saturday. All
model solutions track low pressure from eastern Colorado Friday
evening to northern Michigan by Sunday morning...keeping central
Illinois in the warm sector of the storm. Other than a narrow
window of opportunity at the onset of the precip early Saturday
morning, this appears to be an all rain system for central
Illinois. In fact, as GFS MUCAPE values increase to 200-400J/kg, a
few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon as high
temperatures climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Rainfall
totals will range from one half to one inch...enough to create
ponding of water and full ditches...but likely not enough to
warrant any widespread flooding threat.
Once the low departs, cooler/drier weather will be on tap for
Sunday and Monday...before the next system quickly tracks into
the region within the progressive upper flow regime. Rain will
develop Tuesday afternoon/evening...then will become more
widespread on Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the west.
High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 40s on Tuesday,
then will soar well into the 50s and perhaps into the 60s by
Wednesday as WAA increases markedly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
A complex storm system will result in a variety of precipitation
types and aviation conditions in central Illinois, particularly
during the next 12-15 hours.
MVFR to VFR conditions are being reported in many areas of central
IL just before 00z. However, a pocket of IFR ceilings in west
central IL extends from KSPI and westward. Expect this gradually
shift east and impact KDEC from about 01-03z. The snow has also
ended in this same area, and will gradually end from KPIA toward
KCMI early this evening.
Low pressure along the SE KS/NE OK border will shift eastward
later this evening, and as it does it will result in the
development of another round of light snow toward 04z. This will
spread east and northward overnight, as indicated by numerous
short range models. The HRRR has been consistent in depicting this
the past several runs. It is also showing the loss of ice crystals
in the lower-mid parts of the atmosphere, which will result in a
mix and possible swich over to FZDZ after midnight from KSPI to
KCMI. This will be followed by IFR ceilings in much of central IL
early Friday morning due to the proximity of a surface trough and
weak frontal boundary. Ceilings will gradually improve during the
afternoon, but MVFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1059 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
Only some minor adjustments have been made to the overnight
forecast. The first was to start the advisory in a tier of western
counties from Rockcastle to Rowan where on average temperatures
are colder and either ongoing bands of light snow were moving
through near and north of I 64 or some steadier snow was expected
to potentially begin before midnight as in the remainder of this
western tier. As for trends in 0Z guidance, the bulk of the 0Z
guidance supports the current forecast. Hourly grids have been
updated based on recent observations.
UPDATE Issued at 814 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
Hourly grids have been updated based on recent updates and trends.
One interesting trend has been the recent HRRR runs which have
more QPF and snow from Estill County to Pike County than recent
runs. This trend will continue to be monitored as the 0Z guidance
rolls in for any possible changes. Overall, no significant
changes have been made at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 510 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
Based on observations of temperature as well spotter reports there
is a bit more snow mixing in for falling across the north and
east compared to the previous forecast. With that in mind, added
in a bit more of a mix of snow and flurries further south this
evening with generally entirely snow or flurries through the
evening for p type near and especially north of the Mtn Parkway.
Otherwise, no changes were needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
20z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north of the area
with a developing boundary lying across the CWA generally from
northwest to southeast. Lowering cigs and virga continue along
this with a potential for sprinkles or light rain on the warm side
of the boundary and snow/flurries to the cold side. Temperatures
range from the upper 30s north and east to the lower 40s in the
southwest while dewpoints are mainly in the teens through eastern
Kentucky. Winds, meanwhile, are generally light and variable.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict slightly northwest of
zonal flow over Kentucky into the evening with energy mainly
staying north of the state. Later tonight into Friday morning,
though, better height falls and more energy moves into and across
the area from the west. Some upper level divergence will help
out providing enhanced lift for the CWA tonight into Friday
morning thanks to a quick jet streak passing by just south of
Kentucky. Cyclonic mid level flow then moves off to the east later
Friday with rebounding heights and some ridging for our state that
night. Given the small model spread aloft will favor a blended
solution with a near term nod to the higher resolution CAMs.
Sensible weather will feature the lower levels moistening up
this evening along a developing warm front bisecting the CWA.
This will result in some light snow, mixed with light rain early,
into the evening for the middle and northern parts of the CWA. Do
not expect any significant snow to occur before midnight, but will
have to watch this band and its potential to moisten up ahead of
schedule. The NAM is more aggressive with the QPF through the
night and would lead to more snow accumulation than currently
forecast, but the GFS and ECMWF have much less. Have raised
amounts with this forecast particularly north of the Mountain
Parkway more in line with the CAMs guidance, and also extended
the better snow amounts south a notch picking up an extra 4
counties for the advisory. The freezing rain threat seems to be
even more diminished with enough turbulence and ice crystals
expected to keep the cold column as mainly snow. Given the
relatively mild sfc temperatures do expect the snow that falls to
be wet and slushy for most of the area. Warming conditions then
ensue later Friday changing the lingering snow to light rain from
southwest to northeast. The remains of the pcpn slides off to the
east with the sfc wave later Friday as temperatures remain above
freezing through the night under cloudy conditions and a continued
threat of light rain in the far south through Saturday morning.
Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance as the starting point
for the grids with limited adjustments to temperatures given the
small diurnal curve. Did adjust PoPs to go higher through the
night and into Friday morning across the board shifting the
higher QPF and snow a bit further south - in line with taking the
advisory another row of counties south. Also started the advisory
an hour sooner to allow for some uncertainty as the main wave
moves into the area toward midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
A potent shortwave trough will rotate into the western great lakes
on Saturday as an area of low pressure occludes over the northern
great lakes. This system will send a warm front north into the
region on Saturday with rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms
developing with the isentropic ascent and low level jet. A line of
showers and storms will then develop upstream along the cold front
and advance east across the area during the mid to late evening
hours. There is enough elevated instability to justify
thunderstorms areawide. May need to watch for a strong wind threat
with any more organized storms, but surface instability will be
needed and right now, it looks fairly weak.
The actual surface cold front may hang up to our west and may not
make its way across the area Saturday night. Thus, milder weather
will likely continue into Sunday and have stayed above guidance
on temperatures for this period. A vort max rotating around the
upper trough in the great lakes will eventually push the cold
front through the area Sunday night allowing for cooler conditions
to set in for the early portions of next week. High pressure will
build into the area on Tuesday and should yield a fairly dry day
with dewpoints well into the 20s, and relative humidities under 30
percent. Fortunately, dispersion and transport winds should be
fairly low during this period to limit any fire danger. As high
pressure shifts east on Wednesday, return flow will take hold
sending our temperatures soaring by Wednesday. It does appear
another system may take shape upstream by late Wednesday and could
push into the area by Wednesday evening. However, these kinds of
well developed systems tend to eject slower out of the plains than
models anticipate, so its possible the dry weather will hold into
Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019
VFR was generally in place across the region at issuance time
with vis reduced at times in patchy snow. As the main mid level
disturbance approaches from the west, we should a gradual lowering
of ceilings into the MVFR range 8Z to 12Z. Some IFR CIGS and or
VIS will occur by that time at least in heavier snow as well,
mainly at or near JKL, SJS, and SYM. IFR or lower end of MVFR CIGS
are expected to persist 12Z to 0Z as the low levels saturate,
despite a VIS improvement as steadier precipitation departs.
Winds will generally be light and variable, throughout the TAF
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ104-
106>112-114-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Dense fog is underway from near Anselmo west through Tryon,
southern Cherry county, Thedford, North Platte and areas in
between. Dry air will move in later tonight and enhance the
potential for dense fog. The HRRR and RAP models shows this
feature and are the basis for a dense freezing fog advisory
covering much of the Sandhills.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
For tonight: Patchy fog has persisted into the afternoon hours
today. With sundown and SE winds expected tonight, the fog should
re-develop once again across the western 2/3rds of the forecast
area. This has support from the latest 12z NAM Bufkit sounding
forecasts, as well as the SREF ensembles from earlier this
morning. In addition, weak lift in the boundary layer, along with
an easterly component in the winds, will lead to an increased
threat for patchy freezing drizzle overnight. Have introduced both
freezing fog and patchy freezing drizzle to the forecast. On
Friday, a surface trough of low pressure, will deepen along the
front ranges of eastern Colorado and sern Wyoming. Southerly winds
will increase during the day Friday with the moist boundary layer
remaining in place. Fog should persist into the morning hours
with a temporary improvement in visibilities during the afternoon.
By early Friday evening, the mid levels will begin to moisten as
the upper level trough emerges from the Rockies. Before that mid
level moisture arrives, some patchy freezing drizzle may be
possible, especially in the southwest where meager boundary layer
lift increases Friday afternoon. By Friday night, the emergence of
the H5 trough, will initiate precipitation over NERN Colorado and
western Kansas. This activity will lift quickly north northeast
into the forecast area Friday evening. Forecast soundings support
a wintry mix of precipitation for all of western and north central
Nebraska with the exception of northwestern portions of the
forecast area where cooler temps exist aloft. As for ice
accumulations, am expecting these to be under a tenth of an inch
as forecast soundings indicate only a very shallow layer of warm
air more indicative of sleet or graupel vs. freezing rain. Across
northern Nebraska, the threat for snow will increase Friday night
into Saturday morning as the H5 trough lifts from western into
eastern Nebraska. In these areas, the potential exists for 3 to 6
inches of snow late Friday night into Saturday morning. Even with
snow totals trending down with this forecast package, went ahead
and issued a winter storm watch to account for strong northerly
wind potential Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will
lead to blowing and drifting snow with the potential for near
blizzard conditions over northern Nebraska. The fresh snow cover
from last night`s system, won`t help matters either. As to the
watch timing, carried it over into Sunday morning as the threat
for blowing snow remains possible.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
Beginning Sunday morning, high pressure builds into the region
bringing drier weather to north central Nebraska. Dry weather lasts
through the beginning of Monday before the next chance of
precipitation arrives Monday afternoon through the middle of next
week.
A developing low pressure system will track northeastward across the
central Plains between Monday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Inconsistency in the track of this system is quite high and
therefore confidence is low regarding details of this system.
Current model trends are indicating precipitation starting off as a
rain/snow mix Monday afternoon before changing to all snow Monday
night. Precipitation will then change over to all rain on Tuesday
and eventually change back to all snow Tuesday night. Due to this
changing from snow to rain to snow, total snow accumulations are
uncertain as snow from Monday night may possibly melt during the day
Tuesday as high temperatures rise to the mid 30s to low 40s. Will
hold off on declaring any official snow totals for now as the
forecast is still being refined.
Precipitation is currently expected to continue into Wednesday
before moving off the east by Wednesday afternoon/early evening.
With colder temperatures on Wednesday (low to mid 30s),
precipitation will likely remain mostly snow early Wednesday before
briefly changing over to rain again in south central Nebraska.
For Thursday, lingering snow showers/flurries are possible across
the north. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions are expected across
north central Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
IFR/LIFR in fog and low or very low ceilings is expected to
become fairly widespread tonight. Improvment to MVFR/IFR is
expected 15z-18z Friday. There is a chance that the IFR/LIFR will
last into Friday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Friday for
NEZ005-023>026-035>038-059-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning
for NEZ004>010-023>029-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
838 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
This evening`s balloon launch was successful with no problems
encountered. Observing the state of the atmosphere this evening
and comparing to the previous 12 hours illustrates some
interesting changes. A surface high pressure area that helped
deliver much colder air to the area has drifted slowly to the east
across New England and the Ohio Valley. With the northern Gulf
coast on the southwestern periphery of the anticyclonic surface
flow around the high pressure center, better deep moisture return
at the surface to low-levels is evident in the thermal profile.
This is also supported by an increase in low-level winds as
hodographs depict a slightly stronger warm air advection pattern
in place. However, much drier air resides in the mid-levels,
indicating a sinking, stable airmass in this layer. Meanwhile, the
upper-levels continue moist from around 250mb to the tropopause
as a relatively active quasi-zonal upper-air flow advects moisture
in from the Pacific in the form of cirrus clouds across the area.
This upper-level feed of Pacific moisture is also very evident on
GOES 16/17 UL Water Vapor IR Band satellite imagery.
So for tonight, with better deep-layer low-level moisture return
in place, as well as a relatively thick cirrus canopy across the
area, overnight lows will range 15 to 25 degrees warmer than last
night. Any rain would be better associated with the deeper
moisture flux return to our west, collocated with a much stronger
warm air advection. Spotty drizzle cannot be ruled out,
especially near or west of the Mississippi River but should
remain dry through daybreak. KLG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019/
.SHORT TERM...
The recent sunny and cool weather period is gradually coming to an
end as transitioning into a wet pattern takes place. Upper level
trough and surface ridge are both sliding east, allowing for
moisture levels to begin to rise throughout the column. Mid level
clouds are already rolling in and higher dewpoints should be doing
the same this evening and tonight. Regional radars shows light
showers tracking northeast across southeast TX and SW Louisiana.
HRRR and medium range models do indicate a little of that activity
spreading into northwestern zones during the overnight period.
Therefore, have added slight chance of rain in those parishes and
counties from BTR and northwestward. Impacts should be minimal.
Friday should be similar to tonight with moisture levels increasing
as southerly flow strengthens. Dewpoints will continue slowly
rising and isolated to scattered light showers will be developing
with coverage highest north of I-12. Again, qpf totals should be on
the low side, a tenth of an inch or less.
A stronger onshore push Saturday will bring dewpoints into the mid
60s. Increased 500mb heights will allow for temperatures to moderate
well into the 70s. This combo will first, bring the potential for
thunderstorms. Afternoon CAPE values are upwards of 1000j/kg but
that doesn`t tell the whole story. The sounding profiles show that
the lapse rates below 15kft are generally moist adiabatic with sharp
cooling above that layer. This type of profile, even with bulk shear
values of 50-60kts isn`t particularly conducive for severe storms.
Thus, the SPC D3 marginal severe risk seems quite appropriate.
Sunday and possibly Monday, however, look a bit more conducive for
severe potential. The main difference is we`ll have a stalled
frontal boundary in place for a focal point and instability is much
deeper, starting at near 850mb instead of 650mb. The wind profile
doesn`t provide nearly as much shear, but wbz down to 10kft is
plenty low enough for hail. It may be a marginal severe risk day as
well, but feeling more confident for Sunday than Saturday based on
current model solutions.
.LONG TERM...
Tuesday progged to be a transitional day. The frontal boundary that
was in place will dissipate while upper level ridge passes across
the region. Temps should respond to this by moderating quite a bit.
Have increased highs by a few degrees from the previous forecast,
staying close to MEX as blends typically miss days like this.
Strong building ridge this time of year is typically indicative of a
strong trough to the west and that appears to be the case this time
as well. Models show an upper trough dropping out of the Rockies
Tuesday and occluding as it tracks across the Central Plains
Wednesday/Thursday. This will bring the tail end of a cold front
into the CWA Wednesday. From there, models diverge quite a bit. The
GFS suggests it will stall near the area and remain in place until
the next trough pushes it out. The ECMWF on the other hand stalls it
south of the region before the next trough moves it along.
Uncertainty remains high that far out with either wet or dry
scenarios possible.
MEFFER
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions with good VSBY and mid level/VFR category CIGS
are expected at most locations through Friday. The exception is at
KBTR, KHDC and KMCB where MVFR CIGS are forecast to develop late
tonight/early Friday morning after 10-11z. 22/TD
.MARINE...
High pressure currently over the eastern United States will continue
to move eastward tonight as low pressure develops over the southern
Plains. This will result in southeast to south winds mostly in 10 to
15 knots range tonight with highest winds over western coastal
waters (offshore from Terrebonne Parish). These onshore winds mostly
in 10 to 15 knots range are expected to continue through Saturday
night. A strong low pressure system moving out of the central Plains
into the western Great Lakes region will have an associated cold
front approaching the coast from the northwest Saturday night into
Sunday. This will bring increasing shower/storm chances. The front
will likely stall near the coast early next week. 22/TD
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River Flood Warnings
Monitoring potential for severe weather this weekend
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 55 72 62 77 / 20 30 10 40
BTR 57 75 63 80 / 20 30 10 30
ASD 57 74 62 79 / 0 10 0 20
MSY 59 75 64 79 / 0 10 0 20
GPT 57 71 63 75 / 0 10 0 20
PQL 55 72 63 78 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
943 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019
.DISCUSSION...Forecast mostly on track with a few minor adjustments
made. We`ve had light radar returns over the area for the past
several hours but still nothing reaching the ground as the airmass
in the lowest levels is still very dry. Light precip in the form
of rain/snow will begin first up across southwest Virginia and
extreme northeast TN. This is because the airmass is a bit more
saturated up that way due to the colder temperatures. Elsewhere,
dewpoints still in the upper teens to lower 20s with temps in the
low to mid 40s so it will be a while before precip reaches the
ground.
The current special weather statement still looks good as light
snow is still expected later tonight across some of our northern
areas, once the airmass further moistens. Impacts still expected
to be minimal due to the short window of time that the snowfall is
expected to occur in, along with the light QPF.
Other updates were to tweak hourly temps and dewpoints. Also made
some minor changes to POPs to match up with latest HRRR and RUC
which show the better chances of precip not occurring until
between 09z and 12z. Will send out new zones.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 54 49 64 / 40 90 80 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 48 44 61 / 30 90 70 70
Oak Ridge, TN 36 48 44 62 / 40 90 60 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 44 39 59 / 40 80 60 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
816 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
The Winter Storm Warning for the E Sawatch and W Mosquito Mtns
and Leadville area was allowed to expire at 8 PM as snow has
largely come to an end in those areas. GOES water vapor imagery
indicates the shortwave trough has moved east of the area and
shortwave ridging has taken over, leading to mainly dry conditions
across the forecast area. Weak energy embedded in the southwest
flow may bring periodic light snow showers to the Continental
Divide later this evening through tomorrow morning. Snow is still
expected to pick up again tomorrow afternoon as another shortwave
trough, currently off the California coast, advances east through
the region. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory for the
Continental Divide remains in effect from Noon tomorrow through 5
AM Saturday. ~Line
UPDATE Issued at 553 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
Winter Weather Advisory across the eastern San Juan and La Garita
Mountains, and parts of Chaffee county, was allowed to expire at
5 PM this evening as snow has largely come to an end across those
areas. The Winter Storm Warning for the E Sawatch, W Mosquitos,
and Leadville area looks good to expire at 8 PM this evening as
snowfall and gusty winds continue to decrease in coverage and
intensity. ~Line
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
...Parade of weather systems to continue as heavy snow returns to
the Continental Divide Friday...
Trailing upper energy and favorable moist orographic flow keeping
some banded snow showers going over the Central Mountains, and will
retain highlights into the evening as models suggest some
accumulations (1-3 inches, mainly from Monarch Pass northward)
still possible until at least sunset. Snow should diminish
overnight, but may not end completely as snow showers and flurries
linger into Fri morning. Farther east, still getting some gusts
around 50 knots near Trinidad, though remainder of the area
has seen winds settle back into the 35-45 kt range. Waited most of
the day for winds around Pueblo and Colorado Springs, with weak
convection/virga finally boosting mixing and bringing gusty/warm
conditions to the area after 2 pm. Overnight, winds should decrease
all areas, though upper jet overhead will keep conditions above
timberline brisk with areas of blowing snow. HRRR now suggests
low clouds and fog may redevelop over the lower Arkansas Valley as
easterly wind redevelops, with stratus making it all the way back to
Pueblo/Colorado Springs after midnight. Confidence is low given poor
model performance the past 24 hrs, but will include some fog from La
Junta eastward as westerly flow will likely not reach the KS border
before reversing after sunset.
On Friday, next wave reaches the srn Great Basin by 12z, then races
quickly into wrn CO by late afternoon. Snow will increase along the
Continental Divide by afternoon, and some bursts of heavy snow
will be likely by 00z as dynamic lift increases. Will hoist a new
advisory for most zones along the Divide beginning around noon, as
conditions will worsen late in the day. Interior valleys and
eastern mountains will see snow showers by afternoon, though
accums will be light. On the plains, surface low spins up in its
preferred location south of La Junta, bringing gusty west winds and
warm temps to the I-25 corridor and much of the plains, though east
wind in the lower Ark Valley will keep locations near the KS border
on the cool side of blended guidance once again.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
...Active weather to continue into next week...
Models and ensembles continue to have close agreement through the
extended period with low ensemble spreads. This leads to high
forecast confidence through the extended period with an incoming
storm system.
Friday night...a fast moving upper level shortwave trough will be
moving across the area Friday night. Snow will be ongoing along
the Continental Divide during the evening hours which could be
heavy. Locations over the Central Mountains will see the highest
amounts before dissipating late. Across the Plains, models are in
good agreement with a band of rain and snow lifting northeast into
Kansas overnight. This band should clear into Kansas by Saturday
morning. Any snow accumulations will be minor and remain confined
to grassy surfaces.
Saturday and Sunday...strong zonal flow will encompass the region
on Saturday with mixing allowing for strong winds at the surface.
This will help temperatures to rise into the 50s to perhaps a few
low 60s across the Plains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will exist, mainly over the I-25 corridor. Winds will definitely
be there, with gusts in excess of 30 mph expected, but humidity
values are expected to remain just above 15 percent. Over the
mountains, periods of light snow will continue over the Central
Mountains where an inch or two of accumulation are expected. By
Sunday, the upper level flow will shift southwesterly as the next
storm system approaches. Snow will continue to be light over the
Continental Divide throughout the day. Winds are also expected
subside by Sunday morning with weak high pressure aloft moving
across the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the
departing system with generally 40s across the lower elevations.
Monday into Thursday...a major storm system is forecast to move
across Colorado beginning Monday and persisting into Wednesday.
Snow will increase by Monday morning over the mountains,
especially the San Juan and Southern Sangre ranges. As the upper
system slowly moves across the Desert Southwest, expect rain and
snow to expand across the region. The mountains will likely see
several inches, if not feet of snowfall through Wednesday. As for
the Plains, models in good agreement with a heavy band of rain
moving up from the south with a very good moisture tap. Model
projections are printing out around 1 to 2 inches of rainfall as
the upper system moves into New Mexico Monday night into Tuesday.
Temperatures at this time look to remain above freezing, with all
precipitation looking like rain. As the upper system closes off
in western Kansas, and lifts into Nebraska, colder air will move
into the Plains behind a cold front. Models are mixed with rain
and snow across the Plains behind the cold front and how long they
want to hold on to it. Minor accumulations may be possible in the
wrap around precipitation band. By Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday, broad northwesterly flow will encompass the area with
more energy dropping across the area. This will likely keep snow
going over the mountains, while areas on the Plains will depend on
upslope flow. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2019
At KALS, VFR conditions expected overnight and through the day on
Friday. Very slight chance of a shower near the mts until 02z, won`t
include in the taf at this point. Strong southwest winds this
afternoon will drop back into the 10-20 kt range this evening,
before increasing quickly again Fri morning, with gusts to 40 kts
after 18z.
At KCOS, virga/isolated -shra have increased the winds across the
terminal this afternoon, with some gusts to 30 kts possible into the
evening. Winds diminish this evening, then turn easterly 03z-05z,
with a potential return of IFR cigs/vis for a period 08z-16z,
before clearing and VFR by 18z as gusty S-SW winds return.
At KPUB, gusty west winds will persist into the evening, then turn
easterly 03z-05z. Expect a return of stratus and fog after 06z, with
a period of IFR cigs/vis 08z-17z. Clearing with VFR conditions
expected after 18z, with gusty S-Sw winds returning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 5 AM MST Saturday
for COZ058>061-066-068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN