Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/02/19
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 438 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
Dropped the winter weather advisory over the southeastern
forecast zones. Just some flurries left now. But, across the
entire forecast area since late last night, 1 to 4 inches have
been reported throughout the forecast area, with some 3 to 5 inch
reports showing up across where there was an advisory in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
The snow along and east of the James valley will continue to
transition east through the afternoon, with advisory level
accumulations. There will be a lull this evening with clearing and a
light north wind that will allow for some temperature drop before
the next batch of clouds move in. A weak system moves mainly west of
the Missouri valley, with dry air in the east limiting the eastward
extent. Only looking at about 1-2 inches of fluff in the far western
CWA. Otherwise winds pick up Saturday with mixed winds topping out
around 20kts, plus cold advection as a ridge of high pressure slowly
builds across the region. There is some mention of blowing snow but
light drifting will generally impact road conditions more than
anything else.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
The extended period starts off with very cold air in place over the
region. Temperatures will start off in the teens below zero early
Sunday morning, with wind chills in the -25 to -40 range. Bitterly
cold wind chills will remain a concern through the day Monday as the
region remains on the east side of a strong surface ridge, with wind
gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon through the day Monday. May
still see some gusts up to 20 mph or so on Tuesday, then the surface
high slides across the area, with lighter winds Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The next chance for snow comes Wednesday night into
Thursday as a low pressure system tracks across the Central Plains.
High pressure returns Friday, with dry conditions expected.
After the very cold start to the day Sunday, will only see
temperatures rise to the single digits below and above zero Sunday
afternoon. Will then see a gradual warm up through the period, with
highs in the single digits above zero on Monday, in the teens to
lower 20s Tuesday through Thursday, and in the upper teens to upper
20s Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
Things have cleared off or are in the process of clearing off,
with good VFR anticipated for much of the next 6 hours. However,
short range/rapid update guidance continues to suggest that by 12Z
Saturday, lower (sub-VFR) CIGS will develop/move into the area. A
low pressure system will also work its way southeastward across
the front range and northern high plains, generating some light
snow and MVFR vsbys for KMBG/KPIR from early Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
953 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal storm tonight into Saturday with mostly snow, a wintry mix
with rain along the immediate south coast of New England. Some
blustery northeast winds as well. A second storm Sunday night
into early Monday will bring snow, likely changing to rain in
the coastal plain. Significant snow accumulations possible in
the interior. Mainly dry weather, but much colder for the rest
of the coming week with temperatures well below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 pm update ...
Sticking with the going forecast. An eye on how quickly N Gulf
mid-level energy shears downstream out ahead of additional Pacific
energy ejecting E from the Rockies. Monitoring the longevity of
frontogenesis N/NE of the closing H9-8 low extending on up thru
the dendritic growth zone with omega values of 5-10 microbars
per second. Saturated column throughout, the grasp of N Gulf
energy and higher precipitable waters crucial as to what can be
frontogenetically lofted and squeezed out beneath upper level
support of a RRQ of a neighboring H3 jet streak N/E. Latest
satellite showing ingredients coming together in a nice mini-
baroclinic leaf structure. Starting to see some W-E fronto-
genetical banding along the immediate S-coast coincident with
the clash of higher precipitable waters as surface high pressure
lingers to the N/E. Likely will see continued evolution as most
of the high-res guidance indicates over S/E areas of S New
England, but it`ll be interesting if more robust moisture is
sheared out E over the waters, or rather if convection, ongoing
well E of the Delmarva Peninsula, can rob the environment N.
Following HRRR trends closely. Still some concern that outcomes
could turn out slightly less as moisture / synoptics are stretched
E. As alluded to below, a shorter residency time of outcomes
would subsequently limit snowfall accumulations.
Previous discussion ...
Plowable snowfall late tonight into Saturday. Low pressure over
the southeastern states emerges off the Carolina coast, steadily
deepening and strengthening as it tracks toward our area. 12Z
GFS tracks the low center over the 40N/70W benchmark, 12Z NAM
and ECMWF bring the low center slightly SE of the benchmark
during Saturday morning.
Some favorable dynamics for this deepening low, with SNE getting
into right rear quadrant of upper level jet. However looking at the
mid levels, flow shows short wave energy but it is traversing thru a
fast flow with only a modest amount of mid level troughing and a
lack of a downstream block. This will keep this system progressive,
moving steadily thru and then NE of our area during late tonight
thru Saturday afternoon. The expedient track of this low brings a
challenge to determining snowfall amounts, the shorter residence
time limiting accumulations.
Although models not fully consistent on QPF amounts, there is model
agreement that the highest QPF will be over SE MA, with amounts
tapering over the interior. Heaviest snow expected to fall between 4
am and noon. Marginal thermal fields indicate the potential for a
heavier, wet snow over SE MA and RI, and some wintry mix closer to
the coastline as well as the Cape/Islands. Precip type all snow over
the interior, where the snow to liquid ratios will be higher.
A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Bristol and Plymouth
Counties in MA for 4 to 7 inches of snow. Then a Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the BOX County
Warning Area, except for a portion of NW MA and also Nantucket
where amounts are expected to be lower (in Nantucket`s case,
mixing with rain). Generally a 3 to 6 inch event in the Advisory
area.
Winds will be out of the NE, becoming N and increasing during the
day Saturday. Gusts 20 to 30 mph along the east coastal MA and
coastal RI locales, except gusts 30 to 40 mph Cape and Islands.
With surface dewpoints in the teens and low 20s, there will be some
wet bulbing overnight as precip approaches. Looking at overnight
lows mainly in the 20s, except around 30 Cape and Islands. Highs on
Saturday mostly in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s on Nantucket.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night...
The coastal low continues to rapidly deepen but is moving steadily
away from our area, east of Halifax by 06Z. There is the potential
for some lingering wraparound light snow during the evening, and
have slight chance to chance pops for that timeframe. Then after
midnight, dry with partial clearing as surface ridging briefly moves
into our area. Winds shift from the North to the West and become
light. Seasonably cold with lows mainly in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Another coastal storm will likely bring significant snow
accumulation to the interior Sunday night into early Monday
* Snow likely changes to rain near the coast
* Much colder for the rest of next week with temps well below normal
Sunday...
Dry weather holds on for much of the day as high pres gradually
shifts to the east. Clouds will be increasing and some light snow
may reach western MA/CT toward evening, otherwise a dry day with
highs in the 30s to around 40.
Sunday night into Monday...
High confidence that a winter storm will impact the region but there
is still uncertainty with respect to specific details regarding
where rain-snow line sets up and specific snow accums across the
region. GFS remains furthest south and east with low track near the
benchmark and coldest of the guidance and would suggest significant
snowfall across the coastal plain. ECMWF is furthest north with
track across the Cape with heaviest snow in the distant interior
with rain-snow line getting west of the I-95 corridor. NAM is
somewhat of a compromise. Given the lack of a blocking downstream
ridge and mean trough axis back across the Lakes, we think GFS is to
far offshore so favored a track closer to the ECMWF but will blend
with NAM thermal profiles as a basis for the forecast.
Enough cold air in place for precip to start as snow across all SNE
Sun evening, but expect an eventual change to rain overnight along
the south coast and the coastal plain near the I-95 corridor from
PVD to BOS with mostly snow to the north and west. This area has
greatest uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts as ptype transition
zone expected to be nearby. A period of heavy snow with 1-2"/hr
snowfall rates will possible in the interior overnight Sun night but
duration of heavy snowfall rates should will be limited as this will
remain an open wave with no closed mid level low developing.
Regarding snowfall, prelim thinking is max snowfall axis of 6-10"
across the interior west of I-95 corridor, with highest amounts
across interior MA and portions of northern CT. Expect 4-7" along
the I-95 corridor into interior SE MA, 2-4" PVD-TAN-PYM and 1-2"
near the south coast. However, it is important to note that any
shift in the storm track will result in changes to these numbers.
There is a risk of isolated to scattered power outages, especially
from northern CT, NW RI through NE MA where risk of 6+ inches of wet
snow. The snow should be drier further back across central and
western MA with lower risk of power outages here. The heaviest snow
should be winding down Mon morning, but there will be a significant
impact to the morning commute, especially in the interior with snow
covered roads.
Tuesday through Friday...
Unseasonably cold airmass settles over New Eng with 850 mb temps 2-3
SD below normal. The coldest period should be around Wed/Thu with
850 mb temps down around -20C. Looks mostly dry during this period
with NW flow aloft, but will have to watch next approaching
shortwave and low pres which could bring more snow/wintry precip
sometime late Fri into Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight into Saturday...
SN spreading north across the terminals 06-10z. Wintry mix with
IP/RA along the immediate S-coast, Cape and Islands. MVFR-LIFR
impacts, especially with SN, to both CIG and VSBY. SE winds
becoming NE overnight, increasing to 10 to 20 sustained along
E/SE New England. During Sat, gusts 25 to 30 kts eastern MA/RI,
except gusts 30 to 35 kts possible Cape/Islands.
Saturday night...
Lingering MVFR cigs with some light -SN possible during the
evening. Then becoming VFR after midnight with partial clearing.
KBOS Terminal...
VFR, then lowering cigs/vsbys late tonight with SN moving in
around 10Z Saturday, diminishing after 20Z. Expect reductions in
both CIGs and VSBYs as SN accumulates on runways anywhere
around 3 to 6 inches.
KBDL Terminal...
VFR, then lowering cigs/vsbys late tonight with SN moving in
around 10z Saturday and persisting thru 17Z. Looking at
accumulations on runways of 2 to 4 inches.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt. Chance SN.
Monday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...
Low pressure system emerges off the Carolina coastline tonight,
strengthening as it tracks towards the coastal waters. Winds/seas
increase overnight, Shifting from the S to E/SE with gusts 25
to 30 knots on the southern coastal waters late tonight. Seas on
the southern waters building to 3 to 6 feet. Reduced vsbys late
in areas of rain and snow.
Saturday...
Gale Warnings in effect for the southern outer coastal waters and
waters east of Cape Cod, as well as Nantucket Sound. NE winds
becoming N, intensifying with gusts up to 35 kts. Elsewhere
along the waters, SCA headlines hoisted with gusts to 30 kts
during the day. Seas 5 to 10 feet. Reduced vsbys in areas of
rain and snow, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night...
Coastal Storm rapidly pulls NE-ward away from our area. Will still
have some gusts to 25 kts to start, along the outer coastal waters.
Then winds diminish during the overnight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
MAZ004>007-009>016-022-023-026.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
MAZ017>021.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ233-
234.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 3 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ250.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Another fast moving weather system will bring a 4 to 8 hour
period of snow across Central and Southern Pennsylvania tonight,
along with some areas of light freezing rain across the Laurel
Highlands and Southeastern PA. After a quiet weather day
Saturday, a digging trough over the Miss Valley will spawn a
more significant storm system lifting up the east coast late
Sunday into early Monday, bringing more widespread and
potentially heavier snowfall. An anomalous upper level trough
will then pivot across the northeast CONUS next week keeping
temperatures below average.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Northern edge of precipitation shield has been slow to reach the
Central Mountains and latest HRRR trends seem to be outperforming
the more robust earlier solutions from NAM12 and GFS/ECMWF.
Have shaved POPs and snow chances generally to NIL from I80
northward as a result.
Farther south, precip began as a snow and freezing rain mix
across the southern tie as expected. Did lift the mixing area
farther north into the Lower Susq through late evening, but as
precip rates increase after midnight, predominate ptype is still
expected to be snow with general 1 to 3 inch amounts.
Advisory level snow is expected for the southern tier overnight.
The milder air will continue to create a Ptype problem along and
south of the Mason Dixon line overnight. But a solid 2-3" of
snow is likely across the I-81, I-78 corridor overnight until
sunrise. Across the Laurel Highlands temps just aloft rise above
freezing which will bring some light freezing rain, mainly for
Somerset County. Elsewhere, accumulations should be minimal with
the northern edge of the light snow not reaching the northwest
mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Behind the tonight`s system will be a break in the weather with
improving conditions and milder air over the region for
Saturday. Temperatures will rise back towards average for early
March with reading in the mid 30s north to mid 40s south.
After a quiet night on Saturday clouds increase early on Sunday
ahead of the next storms system. Look for clouds to thicken and
lower during the day with snow developing in the afternoon from
SW to NE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There high confidence for a more significant winter storm
impacting most or all of the region Sunday.
First off, as an upper trough digs over the Miss Valley, all
medium range guidance continues to hone in on tracking a
developing surface low from the Gulf Coast states/Lower Miss
Valley northeast to the Delmarva Peninsula by late Sunday night.
With lack of a blocking high to our northeast, we don`t
anticipate a major storm and a somewhat quick-hitter. That
being said, the latest 09-12Z operational/ENS model guidance
indicates a notable, and progressive coupled jet circulation
over the Ohio River Valley and Cent Appalachians Sunday morning,
lifting NE across PA Sunday afternoon through at least the first
half of Sunday night. Large scale forcing gradually wanes late
Sunday night and early Monday as the 994 to 988 MB sfc low move
to the southeast shore of Long Island by daybreak Monday.
Multi-model consensus storm track via the EC/NAM and FV3-GFS is
in a remarkably tight range (right over Southern/Central DE,
with the GFS being the furthest south by about 100-150 NM, and
the GEFS being the compromise right over KORF at 08Z Monday.
A plowable snow of 3-5 inches is likely over a good portion of
the forecast area Sunday PM/early Monday morning, with the
potential for over 6 inches. With the aforementioned sfc low track
over the Delmarva (and the elongated 850 mb low track near the
I-81 corridor), ptype could be either snow or rain across the
Lower Susq Valley (with only a thin ribbon of sleet possible).
EC`s Max wet bulb in the 1000-700 mb layer is about +1-2C as far
north as the I-81 Corridor for a few hours around midnight local
time Sunday night, and should be warm enough to cause a mixture
of rain or sleet to fall for a short time near KTHV and KLNS to
hold down snow accums by a few inches or more (to mainly
advisory levels).
Following the winter storm to kick off the workweek will be an
even a higher (near certainty) confidence for a several day-
long cold outbreak for Monday-Wednesday, with daytime highs
running 10-15 deg F below normal and similar departures for
overnight mins based on ensemble 850 temps 1-2SD below climo and
ECM MOS.
The upslope/Lake Effect stratocu clouds during the first half of
next week will have temps within the favorable thermal ribbon
(of -12 to -18C) for dendritic snow growth, so frequent snow
showers will light additional accums per each 12 hour period
will occur across the Alleghenies of northern and western PA.
As the mid to late wee period nears there will likely be
refinement of the snow accums from upslope and LES across the NW
Mtns and Laurel Highlands.
The large area of high pressure will drift east and over the Mid
Atlantic Region Thursday into early Friday with fair and mainly
dry conditions.
Longer range glance indicates another winter storm possible for
next weekend March 9-10.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low-level moisture keeping ceiling reductions in place overnight
into mid Sat morning. Weak weather system will impact southern
portions of CWA starting late this evening with a period of
light snow or mixed precipitation into the predawn hours, with
precip lingering the longest over the lower Susq. Expect a 4-8
hour period of reduced visibilities (to go along with cig
reductions), followed by improving conditions behind this
system on Saturday as flow shifts around to westerly.
Outlook...
Sat...Reductions areawide early. Then MVFR NW. BCMG VFR
elsewhere.
Sun...Restrictions likely developing due to snow over most of
the area/rain & snow SE.
Mon-Wed...MVFR/sct SHSN poss W, No sig wx elsewhere.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning for PAZ006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
057>059.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ033>036-
056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
for PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063-064.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
AVIATION...Ross/RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
837 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
Cold front currently pushing into eastern Iowa is triggering a
line of radar echoes from northern Illinois W/SW into northern
Missouri. So far this evening, have only seen reports of precip
reaching the ground at the northern end of the line...mainly north
of I-80. Further southwest, relatively dry boundary layer airmass
has prevented precip. Latest HRRR shows zero measurable precip as
the front pushes into central Illinois overnight, but based on
radar trends cannot rule out a few snow flurries. Have therefore
updated the forecast to go with scattered flurries across the
northern two-thirds of the KILX CWA as the front approaches.
Other than that, it will be a cloudy and cold night with lows
mostly in the middle to upper 20s...except lower 30s south of
I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
Mostly sunny skies will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon across central Illinois, however, low clouds continue to
linger in southeast Illinois as saturated soils remain an issue. A
weak disturbance will slide by in northern Illinois this evening,
although no accumulation is expected from this, I added a slight
chance of PoPs to the forecast, in case some flurries are seen.
Low pressure will move onshore Saturday (west US) and collide
with a winter system dropping into the west, then quickly advance
to the Plains Sunday morning. As this system moves through the
Plains, it will pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
Precipitation will arrive into the Midwest around 06-09z Sunday,
well ahead of the main low core. Most of the precip will fall as
snow, but a change was made in temperatures across locations south
of I-70, providing a chance of rain/snow mixture. As the low
deepens Sunday, it will approach the Tennessee Valley region
Sunday afternoon. Model trends continue to tighten the snowfall
gradient and decrease amounts across central Illinois. New totals
show 1-2 inches falling from PIA to ILX- CMI, while locations
south of I-72 and north of I-70 will see 2-3 inches, and south of
I-70 will see 3-4 inches. The highest amounts of snow are forecast
to fall between 09-18z Sunday, as the front side of the system
moves through. This system will then quickly slide out of the
region Sunday evening, with all precipitation done by 03z.
Behind the system, another blast of cold air will filter into the
region, as Arctic High pressure dominates the northern Plains
through the Midwest. A 1042mb High pressure system will set up in
the northern Rockies and linger over the first half of next week.
This will cause temperatures to plummet behind the exiting system,
with forecast lows Monday and Tuesday morning in the single
digits, while wind chill values drop to -10 to -20 around much of
the area. Highs will only reach the teens Monday and low 20s
Tuesday, but another winter warmup arrives mid-week. As the High
drops through the Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley
region, it will continue to hold strength, as a 1035mb High on
Wednesday. Dry conditions will hold through mid- week as well,
before another system arrives late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
VFR conditions currently prevail at the central Illinois
terminals:however, MVFR ceilings are poised along/southwest of a
KEOK to KIJX line and will advect slowly northeastward as the
evening progresses. Based on HRRR forecast, it appears ceilings
will lower to MVFR at KSPI by 03z...then further northeast to KCMI
by around 09z. While HRRR tends to keep lower clouds around
through the remainder of the 00z TAF period, the NAM suggests
once winds veer to the NW behind a departing surface trough,
ceilings will temporarily scatter Saturday morning. Based on
upstream satellite trends, have decided to go with the more
optimistic NAM and scatter the ceilings from west to east across
the area between 11z and 17z. Winds will initially be light and
variable tonight, then will become northwesterly at 8-12kt on
Saturday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
846 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looking at the latest IR Sat, mid-level clouds moving in were
getting quickly eroded by dry air over the eastern half of MS.
JAN`s RAOB had a fairly dry column, but upstream LZK`s RAOB was
starting to moisten up to 850mb. This moist air has been slow to
really advect into the region and the regional radar mosaic
confirmed very little to any precip. HRRR was showing some precip
by 03Z, but this hasn`t materialized, so thinking it best to lower
pops just a bit over the entire area. Isolated showers are still
possible with up to a tenth of an inch of QPF. There may be some
patchy fog, but don`t see temps over much of the area reaching the
fog point.
Temps should stay on track considering there will still be ample
cloud cover over most of the area, so didn`t make any changes to
lows. /LM/TP
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Saturday:
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a nearly stationary front
across southern Forest county and a 1020mb high centered over east
Arkansas. This surface high will provide just enough of a push to
shift the nearly stationary boundary southeast of our CWA. A
cooler and much drier airmass has settled over most of the CWA and
cloud cover has helped hold temperatures in the 40s across our
north and in the 50s across the central portions of our area so
far this afternoon. There may be a shower or two during the next
few hours across our southeast but this potential will end by
evening. Light rain will return from the west later this evening
though as a weak disturbance within our zonal flow aloft moves
across the region. This light rain will end by mid morning as the
disturbance moves east of Mississippi. Although the rain will end
Saturday morning, there will remain plenty of cloud cover through
the afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will be
milder and make it into the 60s across most of the area with lower
70s across the south. /22/
Saturday night through Thursday:
Going into Sunday, a fast-moving shortwave trough will cross into
the Southeast as part of a broad upper-level trough over the central
U.S. Ahead of the shortwave and at the surface, a cutoff low is
expected to develop and allow a broad warm sector to move over the
area. Within this sector, the moist boundary layer will provide
sufficient moisture to feed storms with heavy rainfall. As the
system approaches our area from the west late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, some activity will move in that will have the
potential to develop some elevated hail in our western
counties/parishes. Instability increases throughout the day though
and decent CAPE values of 1500 j/kg and strong deep-layer shear of
35-40kts will support better organized strong to severe storms.
Threats will include flash flooding (mostly due to the antecedent
soil conditions in conjunction with heavy downpours), damaging wind
gusts, hail, and tornadoes. Now, the models differ a bit in that the
bulk of the precip seems to be located in the heart of the cutoff
low where the greatest convergence is with the GFS while with the
Euro it is located along the front where the greatest forcing is.
The Euro shows slightly stronger severe parameters. Overall, we
didn`t see a need to make any changes to the hazardous weather
outlooks at this time.
On the backside of the frontal passage, cold arctic air will surge
into the area and force temperatures down 15-20 degrees below normal
values for the first part of next week. These cold temperatures will
be a bit of a shock to the region as we haven`t seen freezing temps
since mid-February and plants and trees are starting to bud and
bloom already. Low temps will fall into the 20s for at least two
nights, including Monday and Tuesday night. Highs will mostly be in
the 40s. The arctic surface high finally pushes off to the east on
Wednesday though and temps begin to rebound back to normal in the
latter part of next week. /10/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
No big changes to the forecast overnight. Looking for MVFR to LIFR
ceilings to prevail across the region. Guidance shows rain moving
through the area as a wave passes, but there wasn`t much
developing upstream. Could see some light rain move across each
site with minimal impacts. Patchy fog may develop also, but should
be within the MVFR-LIFR range early Saturday. Low ceilings may
lift for a few hours in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 48 69 55 70 / 35 20 60 99
Meridian 49 68 54 71 / 35 21 48 99
Vicksburg 47 66 55 66 / 35 12 71 98
Hattiesburg 58 74 60 76 / 21 22 28 97
Natchez 50 70 59 71 / 35 21 56 99
Greenville 42 60 50 54 / 22 3 90 99
Greenwood 42 63 50 58 / 35 3 81 99
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
749 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
This evening`s balloon launch was successful with no problems
encountered. This launch was performed in the warm, unstable
airmass ahead of an approaching weak cold front from the
northwest. This sounding sampled a rather deep, moist airmass in
place with SBCAPE ~1500J/kg, with a distinct moist-adiabatic
thermal profile from the well-mixed planetary boundary layer to
the low to mid-levels. Comparing this sounding to the previous 12
hours shows an interesting transition in the mid-levels. A weak
subsidence inversion at 12Z this morning around 580mb has
descended, and warmed due to compression/subsidence to a base of
640mb illustrating a stable airmass in this layer. However, above
this layer, upper- level moisture continued to advect along a
quasi- zonal phased jet pattern dragging in a thin cirrus deck
aloft. Earlier this afternoon, a few areas of showers did develop
across SE LA and S MS, but with no distinct dynamic trigger in
place (other than surface frontogenisis well to the NW), these
showers remained weak and didn`t ascend deep enough to produce
much lightning or become strong. Since these showers were
primarily diurnally driven by building thermodynamics this
afternoon, all this shower activity has ended, with only some
areas of marine convection remaining.
So for tonight, look for the aforementioned frontal boundary to
continue to slowly press south and east across the area, then
stall right through the heart of SE LA. Latest HRRR trends do show
some isolated showers trying to develop close to sunrise, but
lack of surface based thermodynamics will mean these will be
fueled only by frontal forcing and deep moist flux transport from
the gulf, which means these will be isolated, and should be rather
light. However, guidance also supports this weak stationary
boundary to eventually drift back north as a warm front later
Saturday afternoon, where enough sunshine in the warm sector will
build instability back again with isolated showers, and perhaps a
few thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday evening. Good news
is it will not be an all day washout, and like today, should dry
out by later evening and overnight tomorrow night. KLG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019/
.SHORT TERM...
Scattered convection developing along and south of a
weak boundary extending from Morgan City to Slidell to Lucedale
will persist through the late afternoon and early evening hours
before dissipating. This convection is largely being forced by
daytime heating, and as temperatures cool after the sun sets, the
amount of shower activity will diminish. By late evening, a dry
forecast is called for. However, the warm and humid airmass
combined with light onshore winds will support the development of
fog tonight. Dense fog does not look to be very widespread, and
have opted to not issue a dense fog advisory at this time.
Temperatures north of the boundary should cool into the middle to
upper 50s, and temperatures south of the boundary should cool into
the lower to middle 60s.
Morning fog should begin to lift by mid to late morning, and then
a mostly cloudy sky with isolated to scattered rain showers should
develop as temperatures warm back into the 70s. Overall coverage
should be slightly lower than today, and a lack of instability
should keep the risk of thunderstorms at bay. Lapse rates will
basically be moist adiabatic, and MLCAPE values will only climb to
around 200 J/KG in the afternoon. These values will not support
the deeper updrafts needs to support thunderstorms. The shower
activity should once again begin to dissipate in the evening hours
as daytime heating wanes. As the showers come to an end, another
round of fog should begin to develop as the atmosphere remains
warm and moist. Dense fog should not be as prevalent due to a
gradual increase in atmospheric buoyancy through the overnight
hours in advance of an approaching longwave trough. Overnight lows
will dip into the lower to middle 60s.
Sunday will be the most active day throughout the entire forecast
period as the longwave trough and an associated strong cold front
sweep through the region. Initially, a band of showers and
thunderstorms should sweep through the northern half of the
forecast area Sunday morning. This band of showers and
thunderstorms will be associated with a fast moving upper level
vort lobe swinging out in advance of the main longwave trough.
Fortunately, a weak low level stable layer of air combined with
the diurnal minimum and weaker mid-level lapse rates should keep
most of the thunderstorm activity below severe limits. However, a
relatively low wet bulb zero height and 0-3km speed shear for
areas north of I-12 could allow an isolated severe thunderstorm
to develop.
By early Sunday afternoon, the actual cold front and longwave
trough axis will begin to move through the forecast area. Have the
highest POP values between 18z and 21z extending from Lafayette
to McComb, and this is also the most likely area to experience
severe thunderstorm during this time of day. Steep mid-level lapse
rates, ample CAPE, a low wet bulb zero height, low LCL, and
decent low level shear should support all convective modes with
hail, straight line winds, and a few tornadoes possible over the
aforementioned area extending from from Lafayette to McComb
including metro Baton Rouge.
By late Sunday afternoon from 21z to 00z the most likely area for
convection and severe thunderstorm development will generally
extend along a line from the Houma area through metro New Orleans
and across coastal Mississippi. The severe threat looks slightly
lower for areas south of Lake Pontchartrain with higher lifted
condensation levels, lower CAPE values, and lower shear values
expected. As a result, any severe thunderstorms will be far more
isolated and likely less intense than those across the Northshore
and Mississippi Gulf coast where shear and instability values are
more favorable for severe thunderstorm activity. Temperatures in
advance of the front should easily climb into the upper 70s.
After 00z, the band of convection and the parent trough axis and
cold front will begin to push offshore. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will persist through the early evening hours coastal
portions of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, but conditions
are expected to stabilize to showers by late evening in these
areas. Further to the northwest, skies will begin to clear after
midnight and a surge of much colder air will advect in. Overnight
lows should bottom out in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the
northwest CWA and the middle to upper 40s over the southeast CWA.
.LONG TERM...
A zonal flow regime will linger over the area
through Monday night, and expect to see partly cloudy skies
persist. However, a very dry and stable airmass will continue to
advect into the low levels of the atmosphere. As a result, any
cloud cover should have a fairly high base, and any precipitation
that tries to fall out of these clouds will evaporate before
reaching the ground on Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will
be significantly cooler with highs in the low 50s on Monday and
lows ranging from the upper 20 to the lower 40s Monday night.
Tuesday will see increased negative vorticity advection and
subsidence develop aloft, and this will finally completely clear
out the skies. These clear skies combined with the dry air
advecting into the region will allow overnight lows to cool into
the upper 20s and 30s Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will only
warm into the lower 50s as a pool of cooler air lingers over the
Gulf South.
Deep layer ridging will dominate the region on Wednesday and
Thursday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, low humidity
values, and gradually modifying temperatures expected. Highs will
warm from the 50s on Wednesday into the 60s on Thursday, and lows
will be about 10 degrees warmer Wednesday night as compared to
Tuesday night. By Thursday night, increased onshore flow and warm
air advection will keep temperatures in the low to middle 50s. An
elevated inversion should also produce some clouds during the
overnight hours.
All of the model guidance indicates that a weak and fast moving
short wave feature will slip through the forecast area on Friday.
Have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
to reflect this passing system. Temperatures should warm back into
the 70s, and this should produce just enough low level instability
to support a few thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.
.AVIATION...
MVFR level cloud bases bouncing between SCT-BKN ad
most locations this afternoon. Some diurnally driven convection
focused primarily along quasi-stationary frontal zone along KMOB-
KNEW-KHUM axis with most of the activity likely to diminish by
02/01Z. Some lowering of cloud decks and some marine layer fog to
develop overnight for IFR and some LIFR conditions through about
15Z most terminals, then improving to MVFR levels generally by 18Z
through 03/00Z. 24/RR
.MARINE...
Weak frontal zone extends from Mobile Bay to near New
Orleans to lower Atchafalaya Bay is nearly stationary but may sag
a bit farther south before completely washing out. This may induce
some thunderstorms in the coastal waters tonight. Otherwise,
relatively light winds and low seas outside thunderstorms into
early Saturday. Onshore flow gradient increases Saturday to
moderate levels in advance of approaching strong cold front. Front
moves off the coast Sunday night and may be accompanied by a
squall line of storms. Cold high pressure then builds Monday and
Tuesday into the gulf with strong offshore flow and rough seas to
warrant small craft advisories possibly before the front in the
tighter gradient but certainly post-frontal with the cold air
advection. 24/RR
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Ongoing river flooding and parade safety support
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 73 62 75 / 30 20 30 80
BTR 59 76 64 78 / 20 20 30 70
ASD 60 78 64 78 / 20 20 20 80
MSY 62 78 65 79 / 40 30 20 80
GPT 61 74 63 75 / 30 20 20 80
PQL 60 77 63 76 / 30 20 20 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move over portions of the southern coast this
evening followed by a cold front late tonight. A strong low
pressure system will affect the area late Sunday into Monday.
Another low will develop well offshore could produce some light
precipitation along the coast late Tuesday. Cold high pressure
will build over the area Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure
system is expected to impact the area late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Fri...Minor adjustments for the ongoing forecast,
mainly to account for trends in precip over Eastern NC this
evening. Wind forecast remains the trickiest part, and made
significant adjustments with the warm front now expected to
remain more for southern coastal portions, with northerly winds
for northern areas shifting west-northwesterly by 7-8Z. Used a
blend of latest HRRR and NBM which seem to both have a good
handle on current wind field and predicted low pressure passage
followed by cold front late.
The back edge of the precip is located roughly along I-95
corridor, quickly moving east toward the coast. These showers
were associated with a low amplitude shortwave which is forecast
to move through the area tonight. The surface reflection of
this system is shifting east through the area this evening with
a weak surface low now just off Cape Hatteras. The low will help
push a cold front through the region late tonight. Widespread
showers are expected to taper off from west to east after
midnight with minimal coverage of precipitation expected after
8Z. There is enough lift/elevated instability for a couple of
lightning flashes and have included a mention of thunder in the
forecast. Rainfall amounts of .25-.75" with isolated amounts
around an inch are expected. Temperatures along the immediate
coast will be mild this evening in the 50s, with temps in the
coastal plain- northern Outer Banks in mid the 40s. After the
cold frontal passage temps will drop into the low to mid 40s
across most of the area with upper 40s/lower 50s coast as CAA
develops behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM Fri...The models are indicating an area of
enhanced moisture behind the front Sat morning which could
result in a few light showers, then drier air will move in for
the afternoon as weak high pressure builds over the area. Highs
will range from the low 60s SW zones to the low 50s northern
Outer Banks.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...Unsettled conditions will persist through
early Monday, then drier but much cooler weather is expected
through late next week.
Saturday Night through Monday...Strengthening surface low
pressure will move across the NC Piedmont dragging a strong
Canadian cold front toward the area Sunday and offshore by early
Monday. Deep moisture will be drawn northeast from the Gulf of
Mexico with precipitable water values peaking around 1.5" over
the area Sun night. A warm front will lift north across the area
Sunday with precip chances increasing through the day, but the
best forcing/precip chances comes Sunday night with frontal
forcing and strong upper level jet dynamics. We will be in a
high shear/low CAPE environment with weak instability that could
bring an isolated tstm late Sun afternoon and evening. The cold
front will push across the area late Sunday night and early
Monday morning with CAA ramping up through the day Monday.
Highs Sun are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s and cooler
low to upper 50s Mon. Continue to show a non-diurnal temp curve
for Sunday night as it will likely remain fairly warm ahead of
the cold front.
Tuesday through Friday...Cold high pressure builds into the
region through the middle of next week bringing generally dry
and cold . Model runs continue to trend drier for Tuesday and
Tuesday night with the low tracking further offshore and the GFS
is the only model showing light QPF across the region, and
mainly near the coast. Also, GFS sounding profiles suggest temps
are a bit too warm for P-type concerns along the coast, so have
removed mention of snow in the forecast. Cold high pressure
will then build over the area Wed and Thu with upper troughing
forecast to develop over the eastern US. High pressure moves
offshore Thu night with another storm system is progged to
impact the area late next week. There are some timing
differences among the models so have limited PoPs to slt chc to
low chc at this time.
Highs Tue expected to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, then much
cooler Wed and Thu with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wed
and 45 to 50 Thu. Overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
low 30s. Continued warming Fri with increasing southerly flow
ahead of the front with high expected in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 555 PM Fri...Widespread sub VFR conditions are expected
this evening in visibility and ceiling as frequent showers move
across the TAF sites in advance of a cold front. The showers are
forecast to end by midnight but IFR ceilings are forecast to
persist into early Sat morning as the low levels remain
saturated. High pressure building over the area Sat afternoon
will result in prevailing VFR conditions as drier air
overspreads the area.
Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Fri ...VFR conditions expected Sat night into
Sunday, but deep moisture returns to the region later Sunday
into early Monday with widespread sub-VFR conditions likely with
a low pressure system tracking across the area. A cold front
will push across the area Monday morning with pred VFR
conditions returning and continuing through mid-week as a much
drier and colder airmass builds into the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1015 PM Thu...Wind forecast remains very tricky this
evening. Does not appear likely that the warm front will lift as
far north as Oregon Inlet/Duck, and have adjusted wind field to
indicate winds shifting from N/NE to N and eventually NW late
for northern coastal areas.
Main concern is for a brief period of marginal SCA winds (in
gusts) and possible 6 ft seas over the outer fringes of the
central waters after 11 PM/midnight. Peak conditions last about
4 hours with the highest seas/winds possible over the outer
waters. Confidence remains low that these conditions will occur
and will likely handle with a Marine Weather Statement shortly.
Complex low pressure crossing the waters this evening and a cold
frontal passage late tonight will initially produce SW flow
15-20 kt with a few higher gusts late this evening. Winds will
then shift to the NW around 15 kt late tonight (after 6Z) and
continue NW-N around 15 kt on Sat as high pressure builds over
the waters. Seas will build to 3-5 ft tonight (outside over the
aforementioned outer central waters), then subside to 2-4 ft
Sat afternoon.
Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 415 PM Fri...Relatively quiet marine conditions are
expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with winds at or
below 15 knots and seas around 2-4 feet. High confidence in SCA
conditions (possibly Gales) late Sunday into Monday night.
Strong SW winds 20-30 kt will develop Sunday night ahead of
strong Canadian cold front. This will allow seas to build as
high as 8-10 feet Sunday night and early Mon. Gale force wind
gusts will be possible across the outer waters south of Oregon
Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. This will followed by a strong CAA
surge behind the front Mon with N winds of 15-25 knots with
higher gusts and seas continuing rough at 5-8 feet before
subsiding late Monday night. Developing low pressure is
currently forecast to be far enough offshore Tue such that winds
will be forecast 15 kt or less and seas 3 to 5 ft. Strong CAA
develops Tue night and Wed behind the low with NW winds
increasing to 15-25 kt and seas building back to 3-6 ft.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...DAG/JME/SK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A developing coastal low will bring light rain and snow to the
region through Saturday morning, with precipitation ending by
Saturday afternoon. Dry weather briefly takes hold through
Sunday afternoon. A larger coastal storm system will impact the
mid- Atlantic Sunday night into early Monday with a mix of rain
and snow. High pressure and dry weather moves in for most of the
remainder of next week, but temperatures will be well below
normal Tuesday through Thursday. Another storm system may
threaten by the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 pm update: Precipitation is increasing quickly from
southwest to northeast at this time. The precipitation is mostly
rain, but may be mixing with a bit of sleet or freezing rain in
far western portions of the CWA. A trend toward more wintry
types will continue as the precipitation shield moves northward,
as temperatures are hovering near or just below freezing in the
winter weather advisory area. The latest hi-res model
simulations continue to indicate the p-type axis near the
southeast edge of the current advisory area. As a result, made
no significant changes to the forecast at this time. Made some
tweaks to PoPs through the night based on latest guidance and
current radar trends; otherwise, the forecast appears to be
holding for now.
600 pm update: Few changes made to the grids early this evening,
but did want to make mention of the trend northwestward with the
HRRR p-type axis in the most recent simulations. This places it
more in line with other coarser and hi-res guidance, so do not
feel the need to change the precipitation types much at this
stage.
I did add patchy fog this evening to the grids, based on several
surface observations of visibilities a couple miles or lower in
Delmarva and southern New Jersey.
Previous discussion...
The main feature of interest in the short term is a coastal low
which is currently in the incipient stages of its development off
the NC/VA coasts. This low will deepen & be kicked northeastward
this evening into tonight as a shortwave approaches from the
southwest...passing the area in latitude by early Saturday morning.
Isentropic lift on the NW quadrant of this low combined with dynamic
ascent from the aforementioned shortwave will produce widespread
precipitation over the area tonight into Saturday morning.
Timing: Hi-res guidance has slowed slightly with the onset of
precipitation, with precipitation entering SW portions of the area
around 7-8PM and reaching northern portions of the forecast area
around or just after midnight. The heaviest precipitation will be
with this initial surge tonight into early Saturday morning when
warm advection is maximized in the 850-700 layer .
Precipitation type/amount: Precipitation types will be a challenge
again, however I-95/the Fall Line look like good approximations for
the boundary between wintry precipitation and rain. Guidance has
trended a bit colder overall with most ,except the GFS, keeping the
warm nose southeast of Berks county/the Lehigh valley. This means
most areas in the I-78 corridor and points north/west will recieve
primarily snow with this event, with a mix more likely towards the I-
95 corridor with rain through most of Delmarva (outside of northern
New Castle county perhaps) and the NJ coastal plain. In terms of the
character of the mix, am leaning towards sleet but freezing rain
cannot be ruled out with some minor ice accumulations, particularly
over portions of SE PA and Central NJ near and just west of I-95.
Forecast snow amounts generally range from 1-3 across most of the
area in the snow zone, however some 4+ inch amounts may be possible
particularly in the Lehigh valley/Bucks county and portions of NW NJ
near the I-78/I-80 corridors. Although amounts may be marginal for
headlines decided to issue an advisory for most of eastern PA/NW of
the Fall Line, and parts of NJ north of and around I-78.
Total precipitation amounts will trend down with distance from the
Coast, with coastal NJ and Delmarva likely receiving near or over
0.5 inches of water (although this will be rain), with generally
near or even under a quarter of an inch in the Poconos. There is
some potential of a mix or snow extending a bit further south
towards Philly metro for a time of the heavier precipitation (as the
HRRR suggests) but feel it is a bit too cold so went with a ptype
line more defined by the 3km NAM thermal profiles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Although the heaviest precipitation will have tapered off by
Saturday morning a secondary shortwave may reignite another round of
lighter precipitation for a time Saturday morning. Rather than the
warm advection characterizing the earlier precipitation there will
be cold advection in the 850-700 layer in this period. This may
reduce precipitation intensity but may also somewhat erode the warm
layer aloft allowing some areas further southeast of the Friday
night/early Saturday morning rain-snow line to receive some light
snow at the tail end of the event. Once this feature passes by mid-
morning it should be a quiet but relatively cloudy day over much of
the area, outside of maybe a few showers in the Poconos associated
with a moisture-starved clipping shortwave. Highs should run about 5
degrees below seasonal normals, but the increasing March sun angle
should help melt some of the snowpack in areas affected by the
earlier storm.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast starts out Saturday night with dry conditions
and near normal temperatures as a ridge of surface high pressure
tries to build across the region from the west. Zonal flow aloft is
forecast across most of the CONUS, with a shortwave trof moving
across the southern Rocky Mountains.
On Sunday the shortwv trof continues eastward and induces low
pressure development over the Gulf Coast states. It should be
noted that this upper level feature is currently well off the
West Coast so there is considerable uncertainty about its future
movement and strength, and about the associated surface low and
resultant weather. However, on Sunday increasing moisture and
upward vertical velocity will be spreading northeast across the
mid-Atlantic region. Precipitation in the form of rain and snow
is expected to spread across the region Sunday afternoon and
continue through much of Sunday night.
As for precip-type, we are keeping with the idea of mostly rain
south/east of the I-95 corridor, and mostly snow to the north/west.
Max temps on Sunday are expected to be above freezing, but will
likely fall below freezing north/west as the precip overspreads that
area. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible overnight,
especially across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley and northwest NJ.
Precipitation is expected to be over by around 12Z on Monday with
the deepening surface low somewhere near Cape Cod (although the GFS
is somewhat slower). Strong low-level cold advection will be
underway in NW flow, and max temps are forecast to be 5 to 10
degrees below normal.
Beyond the late weekend/early week storm, much drier weather settles
in for most of next week. Drier, but also much colder. Slow moving
and robust longwave trough will take its time pushing through the
East Tuesday through Thursday, likely finally pulling away towards
Friday. High pressure moving in from the west should keep most of
the region dry for a few days. Some typical nuisance, cold advection
snow showers are possible in the higher terrain to the northwest
with a couple of moisture starved shortwaves nearby. Also watching
cyclogenesis potential offshore towards Tuesday night, but with the
trough axis approaching that system will likely remain far offshore
as it develops. Otherwise, 850mb temperatures tumble to -20C by
Wednesday, impressive for March. Temperatures, both highs and lows,
from Tuesday through at least Thursday look a good 10 to 20 degrees
below normal, with gradual moderation possible towards Friday.
Expecting some cold overnights throughout the week as generally
light winds and clear skies will mean opportunities for efficient
radiational cooling. Any snow cover will further enhance this
potential, so gave some preference to colder solutions for the
midweek period. By late next week, we will have to watch a low
pressure of Pacific origin moving in from the west as the eastern
trough pulls away and the overall flow through the CONUS becomes
more zonal. Much too early for any details with that system, but
given the cold air mass in place ahead of it there is potential for
another winter weather event towards late Friday and into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight through Saturday morning...Conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR from SW-NE between about 02-05Z. Snow is expected
at ABE/RDG while rain or a wintry mix is possible in the I-95
corridor, with rain expected at KACY and KMIV. Possibly a short
break in precip. early Saturday morning before a second round of
lighter precipitation later Saturday morning. NE winds generally
between 5-10 knots (slightly more towards the coast) backing to more
northerly by daybreak. High confidence in IFR conditions, Moderate
confidence in precipitation types,.
Saturday afternoon...Conditions improving to MVFR at most terminals
with no precipitation only lowered CIGS. A chance of VFR conditions
developing, particularly at the southern terminals, later in the
day. Winds backing from NW to light westerly through the afternoon.
Moderate confidence in flight categories.
OUTLOOK...
Saturday night-Sunday... MVFR ceilings potentially lingering at
least early Saturday night north of PHL. Gradual transition to VFR
later Saturday night. VFR Sunday morning, then deteriorating to MVFR
and potentially IFR from southwest to northeast late Sunday
afternoon. Light WNW winds through late morning Sunday, then
becoming light and variable.
Sunday night-Monday... IFR or lower conditions likely in rain
and snow Sunday night and early Monday morning. Snow most likely
near and northwest of PHL-ILG with rain more likely southeast
of there. Clearing conditions and a return to MVFR/VFR towards
Monday afternoon.
Monday night... VFR. WNW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tuesday-Wednesday... VFR. Westerly winds 5 to 10 kt turning WNW
Tuesday night. VFR and light WNW flow should linger for Wednesday as
well.
&&
.MARINE...
600 pm update: Added lower portions of Delaware Bay to the small
craft advisory, as gauges at Lewes and Cape May are approaching
or meeting criteria at this time. Maximum winds should be
observed through late tonight before diminishing below criteria
by dawn. The advisory here goes until 6 am.
Previous discussion...
SCA seas have already developed over much of the Atlantic waters
this afternoon and these 5+ foot seas will continue through most of
the day on Saturday. Northeasterly winds will increase this evening
into Saturday morning as the coastal low approaches, with gusts
decreasing below 25 knots by Saturday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Saturday night through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may
persist for a time Saturday night, mainly elevated seas on the
Atlantic coastal waters. Otherwise, the conditions are anticipated
to be below SCA criteria.
Sunday night through Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions
probable starting Sunday night as seas build, then northwest winds
gust to 25-30 knots Monday. Winds and seas should diminish to below
SCA levels Monday night.
Tuesday-Tuesday night... Generally sub-SCA conditions. Seas 2 to 4
ft. Winds gusting 15 to 20 kt, with gusts approaching 25 kt
possible late Tuesday night.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ054-055-
060>062-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NJZ001-
007>010.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431.
&&
$$
Synopsis...O`Brien
Near Term...CMS/Carr
Short Term...Carr
Long Term...AMC/O`Brien
Aviation...AMC/Carr/O`Brien
Marine...AMC/CMS/Carr/O`Brien
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
135 PM PST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
After a relatively quiet day today, the next storm will bring
snow impacts to much of the region Saturday. Valley areas could be
more of a rain-snow mix. Showers, mainly rain, will persist into
Sunday with a break on Monday. A stronger, warmer storm is
possible Tuesday into Wednesday but predictability on impacts
remains below average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
This Weekend...
Still tracking our temperamental storm for Saturday into Sunday
with rain-snow line elevations Saturday being the main
predictability issue. Other than some gusty ridge winds, valley
winds thankfully don`t look to be a problem with this storm.
* Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon even with mostly
cloudy skies as gusty SW winds kick in coupled with March sun
energy. Not nearly as strong as the past few days but localized
impacts possible in wind prone areas through early evening
including lakes. These warm temperatures are a factor in valley
precip types for late tonight into Sat AM with storm onset...
* Latest round of simulations including HRRR showing warmer trend
for lowest elevations. Precip types still have a chance of being
all (wet) snow at RNO and other valley spots but rain or
rain/snow mix is trending. Even if we`re mainly snow within more
intense bursts of precip, with boundary layer temps mid to upper
30s the impacts should be low-end (or zero) below 5500`. There
could be a little "sweet spot" from Lovelock-Gerlach- Susanville
where temps are just below freezing allowing light snow
accumulation on pavement. Changeover to mainly rain showers
still expected by Sat PM for valleys.
* Mountains and other areas above 5500` are pretty much all-snow
through Sat AM. Heavy wet snow accumulations expected with
corresponding travel impacts, but with quick speed of storm
amounts are not major. Given the winter we`ve had I wonder if
some will even notice this storm, but travel issues up into
Virginia City and Sierra roads are likely Sat AM. Roads should
improve quickly by Sat PM with increased sun energy and lighter
precip rates.
* Sunday is looking more interesting from a rainfall perspective.
Secondary and slow moving low off coast of N Cal in latest
simulations yielding a warming airmass with band of steady rains
setting up from Portola-Gerlach. This could lead to some runoff
issues and rises on creeks and rivers in NE Cal and NW Nev.
Wouldn`t surprise to see Susan and Feather Rivers rise again.
Continued on/off wet snow showers for Sierra passes - possibly a
travel issue for ski traffic. Rain showers elsewhere including
W Nev cities with even a couple t-storms not out of the
question.
-Chris
Monday Onward...
A quiet weather day is in store on Monday with just a light band
of showers near the Nevada/Oregon border. The weather will then
turn active once again as an upper low across the Pacific
Northwest helps draw subtropical moisture northward and push a
couple of shortwaves through the region through Thursday.
The characteristics of this storm so far appear to be a multi-day
event with 2 main pushes of moisture. The first is targeting Tuesday
afternoon in early Wednesday morning followed by a second wave
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.
The initial warmer wave will have a weak to moderate atmospheric
river moisture source associated with it but the trend has been to
keep the main core of the moisture farther south. Right now the main
plume is targeting anywhere from southern Mono county into southern
Inyo county. This southward trend seems reasonable with colder air
enhancing shortwave development on the backside of the main trough.
This first wave also is tending towards being a faster moving system
with easy but short duration rain spillover into western Nevada due
to good isentropic ascent at mid-levels. Snow levels are generally
looking to be around 6,000 feet around the Tahoe Basin and closer to
7000 feet farther south into Mono county.
The second wave for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday time will
drive a cold front through the region with snow levels possibly
dropping to as low as 4,500-5,000 feet. Its a little early to
assign snowfall totals in the Sierra as there will be variability
over the next few days until the trajectory of the AR moisture
comes into better focus but higher totals are looking more
favorable to the south. Nonetheless, travel impacts for Sierra
passes are still looking more likely Tuesday through Thursday.
Periods of gusty southwest winds are likely to accompany with
Wednesday looking to be more favorable with a tighter gradient in
place ahead of the expected cold front. Fuentes
&&
.AVIATION...
* Gusty SW winds will persist across the region through this
evening, but nothing compared to the past few days. Expect bumpy
rides into RNO and other airports through tonight. Recent PIREP
of moderate turbulence into RNO doesn`t surprise with an armada
of space ship lenticulars overtop low level cumulus out the
window. Moderate ridge winds of 30-40 kts will remain through
Saturday so expected continued turbulence issues and maybe some
wind shear with lighter valley winds.
* Quick moving storm will impact the region primarily between 9z-
22z/Sat. Not a big storm but expecting periods of MVFR-IFR in
rain and/or snow. Height of the freezing level remains the
biggest unknown. Mild temperatures today will help start rain-
snow lines above valley floors but periods of more intense
precipitation could drive snow down to RNO,CXP at times Sat AM
during the morning departure rush. Not expecting runway
accumulations due to air temps in mid-upper 30s. For TVL, TRK a
heavy wet sloppy snow is expected with some runway impacts. Same
goes for MMH but snow won`t last as long there with wave
swinging through fast.
* Another weak storm will impact the region Sunday but this one
is warmer with rain the dominant precip type for most airports
in the region.
-Chris
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST
Saturday NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening NVZ002.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM PST
Saturday CAZ071.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST
Saturday CAZ072-073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1027 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the northeast states will wedge southward
into the region into tonight. Weak low pressure across the
Carolinas should pass to the east as well overnight allowing
somewhat drier air to filter in on Saturday. A cold front will
cross the area Sunday followed by a surge of Arctic air for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EST Friday...
Short wave had moved into central Virgina and the bulk of the
precipitation has moved east of Buckingham to Charlotte
Counties. Isolated to scattered light rain will continue to
diminish in coverage for the the rest of the night in all but
the far western upslope areas. Temperatures from Bent Mountain
down through the higher elevations of Floyd County and along the
Blue Ridge south of Roanoke were still around freezing.
Now that the precipitation is ending, will be cancelling the
Winter Weather Advisory. Will highlight the potential for some
freezing drizzle and freezing fog along the Parkway.
MSAS analysis showed the low off the coast just starting to
become deeper than the surface low over West Virginia. The low
off the coast will continue to strengthen and become the
primary feature overnight.
Behind this surface wave a more pronounced northwest trajectory
to take place as we slide between systems within fast zonal
flow aloft. This should help scour out remaining low level
moisture under weak cool advection but to what degree surface
mixing evolves remains in question. Appears areas east of the
Blue Ridge should be able to clear out per downslope and March
sunshine while low clouds may linger Blue Ridge and points west
until afternoon, and perhaps never clear the far western upslope
areas. However expect any lingering light drizzle/freezing
drizzle to fade across the northwest early on with a dry day on
tap for the afternoon. Cloud exodus will also make highs tricky
with potential to top 60 far south while perhaps staying in the
40s mountains where clouds linger. Therefore trended with the
colder Met mos west and some of the warmer guidance east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday...
Zonal flow will give way to a broad upper trof settling over the
eastern part of the country into the first part of next week. This will
usher in much colder air as winter still lingers across the Appalachians
and central mid Atlantic region.
By Sunday, low pressure moving through the deep south will push warm
air up and over a wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This
will gradually generate widespread precipitation across the region
through Sunday afternoon. Temperature profiles look to remain on the
warm side with support for liquid ptype for all but the far northern
sections up near the Interstate 64 corridor where some wet snow or
mixed precip may produce a light slushy accumulation. Things will then
change as the low slides by to our south and then moves up the coast
Sunday night and colder air starts to work in from the west. Expect
ptype to change over to snow in the west with possibly a little freeing
rain mixed in but precipitation further to the east looks like it will
be ending before any appreciable changeover to wintry ptype is
possible. The end result will be 2 to 4 inches of wet snow across
western Greenbrier WV with lesser accumulations elsewhere across the
Alleghany Highlands and at the higher elevations west of the Blue
Ridge, along with a light glaze of freezing rain possible Sunday night
into Monday morning. There is much uncertainty in these accumulations
and if the trend toward a warmer solution continues amounts will be
reduced. If a trend toward a colder solution develops amounts will
increase, possibly by a considerable amount. With so much uncertainty
will not issue a winter storm watch at this point and await later model
runs to arrive at a consensus.
Overall precipitation totals with this system will be fairly robust
with liquid totals of 1 to 2 inches. Soil moisture continues to run
well above normal so excessive runoff and some flooding may be possible
once again, especially for the Dan river basin. Also, as the low drags
an associated cold front along there are indications that convection
may fire to our south. There is an outside chance that some thunder may
be able to work its way up into portions of the NC foothills/piedmont
and possibly Southside VA Sunday evening.
Upslope snow showers will linger west of the Blue Ridge, mainly at the
higher elevations, into Monday before tapering off through Monday
afternoon.
Temperatures will be below normal, then begin to nose dive as colder
air surges in behind the departing low on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday...
The broad upper trof over the eastern US will bring cold and blustery
conditions to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through
the middle of next week. There may be some upslope snow showers around
west of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday and Wednesday but a better chance of
rain, mixed with some snow to the north, on Thursday as a warm front
pushes into the region. Guidance has then offered a variety of
solutions by the latter portion of next week as solutions have ranged
from wet to dry. Ensemble clusters have a good amount of spread
indicative of the uncertainty in the solutions, so confidence is low
heading into Friday. The most likely evolution looks to feature a low
moving through the midwest and spreading precipitation into the region
on Friday and into Friday night which may be a wintry mix west of the
Blue Ridge into the Alleghany Highlands.
Temperatures will be well below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
some moderation will set in for the end of the week, though any
recovery will still leave readings below normal through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Friday...
Water vapor loops showed a well defined short wave just
crossing into southwest Virginia. The western edge of the shield
of light to moderate precipitation associated with this short
wave was just crossing KROA at 00Z. Based on the current radar
trends this MVFR rain will exit southern Virginia and northern
North Carolina by 04Z/11PM. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were behind the main area of rain. These showers
will weaken as they move east over the well-established surface
based wedge of cold air.
Behind this wave and the rainfall ceilings and visibilities
will remain IFR to LIFR with fog, stratus and drizzle. As low
pressure deepens off the coast overnight and erodes the wedge
surface winds will gradually come around to the west and
northwest. By 15Z/10AM SPC HRRR radar showed a northwest wind
all the way through the piedmont. Once this downslope wind
develops, ceilings and visibilities will improve in the Virginia
and North Carolina foothills and piedmont.
Low level moisture will remain banked up against the central
Appalachians and ceilings will remain sub- VFR for much of the
day at KBLF/KLWB.
Above average confidence in the the timing of the
precipitation. Average confidence on the category and timing of
the ceilings.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front crosses the region by later Sunday allowing low
pressure to ride up the boundary resulting in widespread rain
and western mountain snow including MVFR/IFR conditions Sunday
into Sunday night. Deeper moisture exits by Monday with
lingering MVFR possible mountains under lingering lower cigs and
spotty snow showers.
Drier and much colder air on gusty northwest winds will result
in improving conditions, especially east of the Blue Ridge
Monday afternoon. Will see widespread VFR across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday as very dry air associated with Arctic
high pressure arrives from the west.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
750 PM PST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific storm system will move rapidly across California on
Saturday, bringing more widespread rainfall and high snow levels
Saturday through Sunday morning. Strong and gusty westerly winds
will accompany the system over the mountains and deserts on
Saturday and Saturday night. Clouds will slowly break on Monday
with warmer days on tap for both Monday and Tuesday. Another
storm system will take aim at central California by Tuesday.
Scattered, light showers could break out this far south, but rain
looks more likely for Wednesday or Thursday. Cool and showery
weather may persist into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
High clouds were streaming east over SoCal this evening. The 00Z
Miramar sounding showed a gradual increase in westerly winds and
moisture below 25K FT, but little in the way of instability. There
still was little in the way of sfc pressure gradient trends, but
they remained weak to moderate onshore. Peak westerly wind gusts
were still in that 30-40 MPH range at 7 PM PST.
The latest Water Vapor imagery over the EastPac shows the upper
low tracking rapidly east toward the Central Coast this evening.
Lightning was still a prominent feature with this system north of
32N latitude. Indications are that this activity will remain to the
north of the forecast area.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR operational runs are on track, bringing
precip across SW CA area early Sat morning. Given the high PW values
forecast, at least moderate precip rates can be expected for a time
Sat morning. Southwest to west winds should become quite gusty as
well on Saturday, prompting a Wind Advisory for the mts/deserts.
Please see LAXNPWSGX or our web page for details. No forecast
changes this evening.
From previous discussion...
Although good moisture is advecting into the system over the
Eastern Pacific (Sat estimate PWATs are near 1.5" in advance of
the trough and nearly 200% of normal), the trough is on the
decaying side and will not be able to quite tap into all that
subtropical moisture available. Storm total rainfall through
Sunday is expected to be 0.25-1.00" for the coast and valleys, and
1-2" over the mountains, with isolated amounts in the favored
upslope sections of the San Bernardino Mountains up to 2.50"
through Sunday.
Cold air with the Pacific storm is also decreasing and the
potential for thunderstorms has gone down over the last couple of
model runs. As a result, @SPC has pushed the mention of general
thunderstorms to the north of our region, and therefore we have
removed mention of thunderstorms for Saturday, which previously
was over the Inland Empire and OC for Saturday. With the best
colder temperatures to the north, snow levels will generally be
very high with the Pacific storm Saturday through Saturday night,
initially above 8000 feet, then lowering to around 7000 feet by
late Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday, occasional mainly light showers will be pesky given
the remnant moisture profile and we continue to mention at least a
chance of showers in the forecast, especially for the mountains,
through Sunday afternoon.
Looking ahead to next week...
Another Pacific storm system will take aim at Central CA on Tuesday.
There is still considerable spread in the operational model runs
with regard to the onset and amount of any precip that may fall.
Similar to the storm system this weekend, it will have a good tap
on Pacific moisture, but the forcing and trajectory favor areas from
LA County northward to get the brunt of the precip. At least modest
rainfall amounts with high snow levels are possible here, either
Wednesday or Thursday, with the greatest amounts north of San
Diego County. Moist conditions and possible showers could linger
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
020400Z...Coast/Valleys...Patchy stratus with bases 1000-1500 ft MSL
will occur tonight near the coast with local vis 3-5 miles in
fog. Widespread higher clouds will gradually lower to 3000-5000 ft
MSL by 11Z Sat with rain developing 11Z-14Z Sat and continuing most
of the day. BKN-OVC cloud bases will be 800-2500 ft MSL with areas
of vis 3-5 miles in rain, locally lower, with areas of terrain
obscurations.
Mtns/Deserts...Widespread clouds above 15000 ft MSL will gradually
lower to 3000-5000 ft MSL by 12Z Sat with mountain obscurations
developing. Rain will spread over the mountains and into parts of
the deserts after 12Z Sat with widespread mountain obscurations.
Areas of west/southwest winds 20-30 knots with gusts 40-50 knots
will occur in the mountains starting 09Z Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Despite the storm system moving through this weekend, winds will
mostly remain 20 knots or less, with strongest winds from the
south Saturday. Similar winds are expected with the following storm
system around next Wednesday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather
is expected through Wednesday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight PST Saturday night
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...10/Brotherton
OUTLOOK...10
AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell