Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
534 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1253 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Despite high pressure continuing to build in during the afternoon, light snow was falling across parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin along some mid-level frontogenesis and some weak shortwave energy sliding through. Latest RAP guidance does show another band of frontogenesis developing farther north this afternoon and radar imagery seems to show that this is taking place. However, with the strongest shortwave energy nearly out of the area, not thinking this northern band will amount to much, if any snow accumulation. For tonight, more cold temperatures are on tap, with lows ranging from near 0 in far southern portions of the forecast area to the teens below zero in the north. Winds will remain lighter tonight than last night, with wind chill values generally remaining in the teens below zero. Some spots could get to the -20 to -25 range with any puff of wind, but not thinking this values will be sustained long enough to warrant any Wind Chill Advisory. Attention then turns to precip chances moving in on Tuesday. Broad mid-level warm air advection along with some shortwave energy working through the zonal flow aloft will be enough to produce some snow across much of the area, though most will fall east of the Mississippi River. Highest totals should be north of Interstate 94, where the strongest mid-level frontogenesis will be. Expect 3 to 4 inches in those areas, so have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Taylor and Clark Counties for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1253 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 The upper level flow looks to remain active to close out the week. After the system that moves past the area area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the flow is expected to remain quasi-zonal. A short wave trough in this pattern is expected to get ejected out of the long wave trough along the Pacific Northwest Coast and quickly top the weak ridging over the Rockies. The models are showing some differences on the track of this wave with the 25.12Z GFS, GFSFV3 and NAM taking the wave farther north than the ECMWF and GEM. These differences result in the first set of models bringing another round of light snow across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday while the more southern solutions keep the region dry with low level ridging in place. Until there is better agreement on the track of this wave, will keep in the snow chances for this system generally in the 30 to 50 percent range. Most of the models then suggest the trough from the Pacific Northwest will get kicked east across the Upper Midwest for the end of the week. This looks to occur ahead of a large upper level low dropping southeast across Canada that looks to eventually close off an upper level low that moves across the northern Great Lakes next weekend. The ECMWF is not quite as strong with the remains of the Pacific system but still has enough energy to agree with the other models on yet another round of snow for the area Friday and Friday night. The passage of the late week system then looks to open the doors for another arctic intrusion. Temperatures at 850mb look to drop int the -18 to -24C range starting Saturday and do not show much change through Monday. While not nearly as cold as the late January outbreak, high temperatures through the weekend look to mainly be in the single digits above zero with overnight lows falling into the single digits and teens below zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Any -SN that was at/near the taf sites at mid afternoon was quickly on its way out of the area, with VFR conditions expected tonight and much of Tue morning. This along with lighter NW winds this evening shifting to NE by Tue morning. By late Tue morning the next system with a round of moisture and lift will be moving into the area. Much like today, initially the column will struggle to saturate for -SN to reach the ground. Carried a period of VCSH for possible flurries or very light snow with VFR cigs in the 17-21z period. A few high- res models showing potential for faster saturation and bands of -SN as early as late Tue morning. Toward the end of the taf period, consensus among models for MVFR cigs/vsbys in -SN to rather quickly spread/develop over the taf sites around 21z Tue afternoon. May eventually need some IFR vsbys in -SN very late Tue afternoon/into Tue evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ017-029. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....CA
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will gradually wind down through the evening hours as low pressure pulls away from the North Country. Quieter conditions develop tonight through Tuesday as high pressure begins to build into the area, but wind chills will become bitterly cold going as low as 25 below for the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Unseasonably cold temperatures continue through Thursday with our next chance for light snow coming Wednesday night as low pressure tracks through southern New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1026 PM EST Monday...Strong low-level CAA continues late this evening and overnight, and anticipate temperatures falling to the single digits by daybreak, and locally zero to -6F across the northern Adirondacks and northeastern VT. Gusty sfc winds remain owing to moderately strong gradient flow and continued steep low-level lapse rates, aiding in turbulent/downward mixing. The 03Z RAP analysis still shows WNWLY flow around 50kt at 850mb, but a bit lower (40kts) near the St. Lawrence Valley. Expectation is for a gradual lessening of WNWLY wind and wind gusts, but can`t rule out localized gusts to 40 mph across central/ern VT next 1-3 hrs. Seeing good upstream drying with partial clearing, so decided to let the Winter Weather Advisory expire, with just isold/sct snow showers near and downwind of the Greens. Any additional accumulation will be minimal (dusting to 1"). That said, the Wind Chill Advisory remains through 15Z Tuesday for n-central/nern VT and the nrn Adirondacks. The continued gusty winds and falling temps will contribute to wind chills falling into the 15 to 25 below range in the above mentioned areas in the next couple of hours, and persisting thru 15Z Tuesday. Previous Discussion...Scattered snow showers continue across much of the region this afternoon, some of which have been heavy enough to reduce visibility to below one mile and drop a quick inch of snow. This activity should gradually wane as we head through the evening hours with moisture decreasing as low pressure pulls away through the Maritimes. Until then, some areas could pick up another inch or two of accumulation, especially in the higher terrain. Have therefore kept the Winter Weather Advisory for the northern Adirondacks and portions of northern Vermont. Also of concern, winds will remain gusty at 40-55 mph through early this evening, particularly over the central and southern Greens, where locally higher gusts will be possible. Therefore the Wind Advisory also remains in effect. Winds will decrease a bit overnight, but with the tight pressure gradient between the retreating low and the advancing high, winds are still expected to be in the 15 to 25 mph range. This coupled with cold air sinking in from Canada will result in wind chills down to -25F; so the Wind Chill Advisory also remains in place for later tonight into early Tuesday. Quieter but cold weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Tuesday night with high pressure gradually building over the area. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but temperatures only top out in the single digits in the mountains and the mid teens in the wider valleys. This unseasonable cold continues Tuesday night with the high cresting right over the North Country early Wednesday morning. Lows will be below zero for a majority of the region, with the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom dropping down into the negative middle teens. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 333 PM EST Monday...Quiet and unseasonably cold weather continues for the first half of Wednesday as surface high slides east of the the region. As we head into Wednesday afternoon mid to high level cloud cover will be on the increase in advance of a weak clipper low tracking east-southeast from the Great Lakes region. Expect some light snow across the Southern part of our forecast area. Given the cold start and gradually thickening clouds by afternoon temperatures will remain quite chilly with highs only in the teens. Clipper low then tracks south of the region Wednesday night with a 4 to 8 hour window of higher light snow probabilities. Ensemble mean low tracks agree nicely showing a path across the southern tier of NY into southern New England, which is a typical climo path of weak systems advancing east from the lower Great Lakes. Highest PoPs across southern counties in closer proximity to the surface feature and slightly better dynamical support. Here a general 2-4" snowfall is expected. Further north moisture will be more limited and only a chance of light snow is expected. Here accumulations should range from a dusting to 2 inches with some areas near the international border likely to just see flurry activity. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 333 PM EST Monday...Any lingering light snow will taper off Thursday morning and another area of surface high pressure will build into the north country. Moderating temperatures and drier weather is then expected through early Saturday. Will have just a chance for a light snow shower on Friday with shortwave crossing the area. Lots of model differences headed into the weekend for our next system to potentially impact the region. Hopefully longer range models will soon come into better agreement. Currently the GFS is much more robust than the ECMWF bringing some precipitation to the region, still lots of uncertainty on the track of the low which will also tell us what type of precip. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period for KMSS, KPBG, KBTV, and KRUT. Meanwhile, KSLK and KMPV will continue to see IFR/MVFR conditions through 04Z as mountain snow showers diminish, then transition to VFR conditions through the night. Areas of blowing snow will continue to result in some localized reduced visibilities through 04Z, but as snow showers end, the amount of transportable snow available will decrease and visibilities should improve. Strong northwesterly winds (currently observing gusts 25 to 40 kts) will diminish some overnight, but still expecting gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range to persist through 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ003-004-006- 007. NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...RSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Temps continue to fall esp in NW MN with several areas -20F or lower Hallock thru Fosston especially. Lowered lows a bit more but overall think as clouds thicken up overnight temps will reach a bottom soon. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 334 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Temperatures across the region this afternoon continue to warm gradually thanks to mostly clear skies and diurnal insolation. However, afternoon highs will still struggle to reach above the zero mark. Additionally, there is a pocket of colder air residing across the Devils Lake basin with temperatures in the teens below zero. In this cold pocket persistent 5-10 mph winds are allowing wind chills to remain in the -25 to -35 range, well below wind chill advisory criteria. Wind chills will likely remain below criteria through the remainder of the day and into tonight. Afternoon satellite imagery shows nearly zonal flow across the northern Plains with a Canadian shortwave exiting the region to the northeast. Broad subsidence behind this shortwave is allowing for the mostly clear skies along with maintaining the surface high observed over the Dakotas. Morning raob soundings from Canada and International Falls also hint at weak subsidence and drying aloft. Meanwhile to the south across SD, recent 700mb RAP analyses show a mid level baroclinic zone positioned across MT/SD. This feature is going to be the main driver for snow chances heading into tomorrow as isentropic ascent across this boundary increases and the feature lifts northward as a warm front. Snow chances will generally increase during the early morning hours tonight through the day on Tuesday with the best chance for accumulation snow across the southern Red River Valley and along/south the I-94 corridor. However, snowfall may have trouble developing during the early morning hours due to the aforementioned dry air in place over the region. Current guidance suggests 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation possible with a hi-res guidance showing possible snow banding along and south of I-94. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches will be possible along this band if it develops and persists Tuesday morning. In addition to the snow, wind chills tonight are expected to once again drop down into advisory criteria (generally -25 to -35). Wind chills will drop most rapidly after sunset tonight but may improve overnight as clouds move in after 3 AM. The far northern Red River Valley/northern MN and Devils Lake basin will likely hold on to below-criteria wind chills through sunrise due to less expected cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday morning through Monday) Issued at 334 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 12Z Wed - 00Z Fri Surface high pressure to extend from western SD into ALTA. Some warm advection is forecast over southern Canada and the forecast area Wed. A weak cold from will move out of Canada Thu and Thu night. A short wave will move across SD and graze the far southern zones Wed night/Thu morning. Colder air will move out of Canada late Thu aftn into Thu night. Fri - Mon Flow aloft remains split with north stream over central and eastern Canada and the southern stream over the central and southern states. Long wave ridge over AK/Yukon weakens over the period and rolls over. Long wave trough was located near the west shore of Hudson Bay with another trough over the Pacific Northwest. Zonal flow will be across much of the US. However cold air will remain over the Northern Plains. Hudson Bay trough will eventually shift into eastern Canada toward the end of the period. Pacific Northwest trough will shift east and another trough to redevelop over western Canada. Flow remains active and progressive with short waves moving through both northern and southern streams. ECMWF and the GFS already have timing differences on Fri. The GFS was a faster solution with upper low over the Pacific Northwest. GFS shortwave affects far southern zones Fri. GFS also bring another short wave out the northern stream/Canada/ early Sat. The northern stream was in good agreement but here the ECMWF becomes the faster solution in time. So timing issues continue with both streams. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 There will an increase from west to east in high and mid clouds overnight...then lowering into the MVFR range esp by Tues aftn as light snow moves in. Vsbys mostly in the 1 1/2 to 3SM range in E ND into WC MN. Winds light tonight then south-southeast 7-10 kts Tuesday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ028>030-038- 039-049-052-053. Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014- 015-024-026-054. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ002-003- 022>024-027>032-040. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ001-004>009- 013>017. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 What is an easy way to spot a cold front? Check the temperature difference across central Kansas this afternoon. Between Russell and Great Bend which is roughly 40 miles, there was difference of 30 degrees for a few hours. At one point, Hoisington and Great Bend (10 miles) had a difference of 20 degrees. South central and southeast Kansas was able to bask in the sunshine with temperatures in the upper 50s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Made a few tweaks to grids to account for current and anticipated cold front positions. As of 2200 UTC, appeared that NAM/NMM had best positioning of front and adjusted overnight forecast in that direction. This also resulted in lowering temperatures quicker across much of south central KS, although little if any change in lows. Observations show light snow/flurries occurring at KRSL and KGBD during the past hour and going forecast had that covered. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Highlights: 1) Colder 2) Chances for precipitation Tues-Thu A shallow Arctic cold front will ooze slowly south across the forecast area tonight. Warm advection atop the shallow cold dome will likely produce patchy areas of light snow flurries across portions of central and north-central Kansas overnight into Tuesday morning. NAM and RAP forecast soundings indicate low-level moistening likely just deep enough for the flurries. Contemplated inserting patchy very light freezing drizzle given the moistening will be confined to just the first 3000 ft AGL, but low-level temperatures around -10 to -13C will likely allow ice nucleation for the light snow flurries. Accumulation is not expected. A weak wave will move from the Front Range on Tuesday night and Wednesday. There will be chances of drizzle and freezing drizzle throughout this time period in mainly south central and southeast Kansas which is consistent with the previous forecast. Freezing drizzle is definitely a challenging weather type in terms of impact with the tendency by many travelers to think that the roads will have no issues from such light precipitation; however, slick spots develop resulting in slide offs and accidents. One key factor is timing. The chances for freezing drizzle could impact the Wednesday morning commute. Southeast Kansas has the highest chances for drizzle at this time, but temperatures above freezing could keep the slick spots only on elevated surfaces. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Challenge: Temperatures Highlight: Cold and chances of snow Models are suggesting warmer air leading to near or above freezing temperatures across the area. This would certainly be a relief for those in most of central Kansas. Cold air may dominate though and not push out as anticipated thus the current forecast may be too warm. This period is going to be cold plain and simple. Temperature anomalies indicate values of -16 to -20 for the weekend which essentially means temperatures are anticipated to be 25 to 30 degrees below seasonal normals. Central Kansas may only see highs in the teens while the rest of the area is in the 20s. Values are approaching but not expected to set any record cool highs though. A decrease in temperatures has been made compared to the previous issuance for the weekend with a trend to the cold side or tending in the direction of the cooler ECMWF. It is possible that the current values may not be low enough. March is certainly not going to be off to a great start in the eyes of many people. Another weak wave is anticipated to come off of the Front Range and Friday and then to end the weekend. Chances for snow have been adjusted for Friday and Saturday with a decrease and increase respectively for the two days. The cold air makes for no question in the precipitation type. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 628 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Challenging forecast with strong front between KHUT and KICT at the start of the forecast. Strong cold air advection and lift behind front has resulted in some light snow at KRSL/KGBD during the last hour and suspect that will persist into the evening. NAM/NMM were best with front position at 2100 UTC and trended timing that direction. This puts front through KICT around 0130 UTC. Anticipate mostly MVFR clouds to spread across the entire area. Precipitation will become increasingly likely late across the Flint Hills where best moisture and warm air advection will occur. -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Cold air is keeping fire weather concerns minimal throughout this forecast. The chances for precipitation are another factor reducing the Grassland Fired Danger Index values. Additionally the snow pack in most of central Kansas negates any concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 26 32 23 26 / 0 10 30 40 Hutchinson 17 25 20 25 / 0 10 20 20 Newton 19 30 21 26 / 0 10 30 30 ElDorado 26 39 24 29 / 0 20 30 40 Winfield-KWLD 33 46 25 31 / 0 20 30 50 Russell 8 22 14 19 / 10 10 10 10 Great Bend 8 22 15 20 / 10 10 10 10 Salina 10 22 19 22 / 10 10 20 10 McPherson 15 24 19 25 / 10 10 20 20 Coffeyville 31 55 33 41 / 0 20 40 50 Chanute 29 51 28 35 / 0 20 40 50 Iola 27 50 28 32 / 0 20 40 50 Parsons-KPPF 29 54 31 38 / 0 20 40 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...PJH SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...ADK/VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...VJP