Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/25/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1104 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from the mid Atlantic states will move along the Maine Coast overnight and then slowly across the Maritimes Monday and Monday night. Canadian high pressure will then build towards the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 11 PM Update...Added mention of tstms for Downeast through midnight w/elevated CAPE of around 100 joules as noted by the LAPS and RAP soundings. Lightning detection showed a few strike across Downeast areas. Otrw, Forecast remains on track with snow of varying intensity across the north, and snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain in southern areas. Snow amounts were slightly decreased in east central areas where some sleet has been holding amounts down. Also, took down the wind advisory for the Downeast coast with winds diminishing as the low center nears the coast. Temps were taken down a couple degrees over the north. The secondary is pulling in some cooler air from the east. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will track northeast across downeast Maine tonight and intensify as it tracks east through the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Across northern and central areas snow will continue through much of the overnight hours, before tapering to snow showers well after midnight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with storm total accumulations 7 to 11 inches expected by daybreak. A Winter Storm Warning remains up overnight for northern and central areas. Across interior downeast, including the greater Bangor region, snow will mix with sleet and rain, possibly changing to all rain before ending after midnight. Expect storm total snow accumulations there to range from 3 to 6 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory remains up for interior downeast, including the greater Bangor region overnight. Along the downeast coast, snow is expected to change to all rain, with accumulations expected to generally range from 1 to 3 inches. A low level jet crossing the downeast coast will result in gusty winds into this evening and a wind advisory remains in effect for the downeast coast of Maine into tonight. The low will continue to move east of the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Snow showers are expected to persist through much of the day across the far north with some areas picking up an additional inch or two of snow during Monday, with scattered snow showers across central and downeast areas. As the low continues to track east of the region, the gradient is expected to increase during the afternoon with winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph across western sections. Areas of blowing snow will be a factor later Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The arctic front will just be finishing crossing far NE ptns of the FA from the WSW as both the sfc and upper low ovr the Ern Maritimes conts to slowly move ENE toward the open Atlc. Winds will be on the increase behind this front, with blsn and wind adv wind gusts the main concerns, and then wind chills very late Mon ngt into Tue morn. For now, it behooves us to hold off on issuing hdlns for these events until current hdlns with the wntr stm are winding down, so not to mix-up messaging to partners and public alike. Strong winds, blsn, and bitter wind chills will cont thru the day Tue and into the eve, with blsn subsiding late Tue ngt as winds slowly decrease. Otherwise, Wed will be fair, but cont`d very cold and brisk with diminishing winds Wed ngt. For now, we kept very low PoPs with a weaker low affecting Srn/Cntrl ptns of New Eng S of our FA as per blended long range model guidance with some hi/mid cld cvr, with only the 00z GFS dtmnstc and ensbls indicating this system affecting the SW third of the FA with lgt snfl. We will monitor trends with this system, although it should be noted that moisture alg the Nrn periphery of this low will fighting very dry llvl arctic air in place ovr our Rgn. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Whats left of any cld cvr Downeast with the departing weak low pres well S of Nova Scotia will exit the FA by Thu mid morn leaving clrg skies withe lgt winds Thu aftn as sfc hi pres settles ovr the area. Otherwise, ptly sunny skies and somewhat milder temps xpctd Fri after on last chilly ngt Thu ngt. The next chance of sig precip will be later Sat into Sun as another primary low moves NE from the great lakes into SW QB prov while another secondary low forms along the triple point near the SE New Eng coast, not to dis-similar to tdy`s current stm system. For now, we leaned more toward the colder msly all sn scenario (xcpt perhaps a mix ovr Downeast areas) 00z dtmnstc ECMWF model solution, which is favored climatologically even for erly Mar ovr the the warmer 00Z GFS solution which was warmer than its own ensm fcst. Max PoPs with this event were raised to the high likely category. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected through tonight in snow north and snow or mixed precipitation downeast. Steady precipitation is expected to wind down after midnight downeast, and toward daybreak across the northern terminals. IFR is expected to persist at the northern terminals on Monday in snow showers, with MVFR/VFR in scattered snow showers downeast. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs/vsbys and attms IFR vsbys in sn/shwrs and blsn will prevail across the N Mon ngt and Tue while Downeast sites will be VFR. Nrn sites will then become VFR Tue ngt in addition to Downeast sites, with all sites remaining VFR thru Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will continue to increase this evening ahead of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Winds will then diminish for a while late tonight into early Monday morning before increasing Monday afternoon. A Storm Warning has been issued for later Monday afternoon into Monday night. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No chgs to the current hdlns structure, with stm force wind gusts ongoing Mon eve and contg into the ovrngt hrs with the strong back side sfc pres grad of the departing secondary sfc low. Aftwrds, a lengthy pd of gale force winds can be xpctd late Mon ngt thru Tue/Tue ngt and potentially even into Wed morn prior to winds finally lowering back into the SCA range later Wed as Can sfc hi pres only makes slow progress toward our Rgn. Kept close to WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-010- 011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ015>017. MARINE...Storm Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...BloomerHewitt Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Bloomer/VJN Marine...Bloomer/VJN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
854 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Winds have been slowly diminishing this evening and that will continue overnight. We will let the Blizzard Warning for Iron County go at 9 PM as well as the Winter Weather Advisories for Bayfield, Ashland, and Price Counties. There will still be some blowing and drifting, especially along the South Shore through about midnight but visibility restrictions will be limited. KIWD has been down to 1.5SM for awhile but there is also some light snow there which will diminish late evening as the storm continues to move away from the region. Satellite shows clouds were diminishing and that will also limit any lake effect snow. There could be an additional inch overnight in the snowbelt of Iron County. The winds along the North Shore were still strong with Grand Marais reporting 30 to 40 mph as of 236Z. Those winds will slowly come down overnight but it will take some time. UPDATE Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Winds continued to gust to 25 to 45 MPH across the CWA early this evening with the strongest winds around Lake Superior up into the Iron Range. Plenty of blowing and drifting snow continued, although the visibility from observational sites were all at or above a mile. Light snow continued over the Arrowhead and along part of the South Shore which was aiding in reducing the visibility there. The wind will only slowly diminish through the evening and will stay the strongest along the North Shore. Guidance still shows strong winds into early morning but the guidance has also been running too high so far today. We will likely allow most of the Winter Weather Advisory over northern Minnesota to expire at 6 PM and may transition the Blizzard Warning for the North Shore to a Winter Weather Advisory as the visibility reductions just are not occurring. Gusts of 40 to 45 mph with some locally higher will remain possible well into the evening. We will keep the Blizzard Warning as is for Iron County in Wisconsin. We are leaning toward adding a Winter Weather Advisory for Price/Ashland, and possibly Bayfield Counties for blowing snow to replace the warnings in effect there for a few more hours. Cold air will continue to move in tonight and Wind Chill Advisories will be needed for the entire Northland and we plan on issuing those around 6 PM. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 The focus for this afternoon and early evening continues to be the on-going winter system, which will continue to depart the region, but some strong northwesterly winds will persist through the evening, which should lead to blowing and drifting snow through the evening hours. Dangerously cold wind chills will then move into the region this evening and overnight. A Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed. The surface low pressure, which was responsible for the heavy snowfall over northern Wisconsin is now currently centered over southeastern Ontario. This surface low has been deepening throughout the day, going from 982 mb at 6 AM this morning to 974 mb as of 3 PM this afternoon - nearly one millibar/hour fall. The resulting pressure gradient has brought a period of strong northwest winds across the area, with wind gusts between 30 to 45 mph, leading to blowing and drifting snow. Eventually, the surface pressure gradient will slacken overnight as the low moves away, but some strong cold air advection brought in by the northwest flow should keep some of the stronger wind gusts along the North Shore through the evening hours. The latest NAM, GFS, and RAP soundings show some deeper boundary layer mixing, tapping into stronger flow aloft along the North Shore. Since these strong northwest winds will continue into the evening hours, decided to extend the Blizzard Warning through 9 PM this evening. As the blowing snow threat diminishes, the strong cold air advection will usher in some much colder temperatures, resulting in dangerous wind chills this evening and overnight. Wind chill temperatures will fall into the -25 to -40 degree range, with 850 mb temperatures cooling into the -20 to -30 degree range. A Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed for much of the Northland once the current headlines expire. With these cold temperatures aloft, there will be a window of some lake effect snow potential as well, but this window appears to be fairly small as the low-level moisture erodes away due to drier air pouring into the region. Monday will be a dry day overall, with high pressure building into the region from southern Saskatchewan. On the southern periphery of the high, a band of 850-700 mb layer FGEN will be situated across South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota late tonight, which should result in some cloud cover over our southern counties Monday morning and into the afternoon. There doesn`t appear to be enough moisture to support precipitation, per the latest model soundings at BRD. Areas along the international border might remain mostly sunny throughout the day Monday. I`ve continued the trend of some relatively warmer temperatures over northwest Wisconsin due to low albedo effects from area tree coverage, with highs remaining near zero over north-central Minnesota to the upper single digits above zero over northwest Wisconsin. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 High pressure will lead to clear skies and cold temperatures for Monday night into Tuesday. Lowered the lows Monday night just a touch as the clear skies and light winds result in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the upper teens and lower 20s below zero. It won`t take much to get wind chills in the -25 to -30 range at those temperatures, so a Wind Chill Advisory may be needed. Warm air advection will set up over the area later on Tuesday as some enhanced vorticity moves into the Northern Plains. This will lead to some light snow showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The NAM and GFS are a bit stronger with this system with the ECMWF being weaker, but timing is pretty similar across the three. Current thinking is that only a couple inches will be possible, mainly for areas along and south of US 2. Wednesday night through Thursday night will feature quiet conditions as weak high pressure moves through. There may be some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior, but the western end of the lake is pretty well iced over and that could limit the extent of the snow. Temperatures will be slightly below normal. Heading into the end of the week, models continue to show the potential for another winter storm. While there were drastic differences in the 23.06z suite, runs since then have been fairly consistent. An area of low pressure over Manitoba will look to phase with an area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. The southerly low will then eject out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. This system will then move to the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. Timing and location are fairly similar between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian, increasing confidence in a storm across the Nation`s mid-section heading into the weekend. The current track keeps the low well south of the area, but there is the potential for accumulating snow in our area from this system being in the north side of the storm. Plenty of time for this to change, but it certainly is the most interesting feature in the long range. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Strong winds continue to produce blowing snow with the visibility of 2 to 5 miles in spots. There was still some snow showers, mainly in the Arrowhead and along portions of the South Shore with the visibility of 3/4SM to 2SM. Much of the region will see clouds diminish tonight but it will take longest in the Arrowhead and along the South Shore where MVFR ceilings will occur. The wind will only slowly subside tonight gusts remaining well into the evening, and for areas near Lake Superior, well into the night. Some high clouds will affect mainly the south half of the Northland on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -14 4 -16 10 / 10 0 0 20 INL -24 0 -22 10 / 10 0 0 10 BRD -19 3 -18 8 / 0 0 0 50 HYR -15 7 -18 12 / 10 0 0 30 ASX -8 7 -14 12 / 60 0 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ002- 003-009. Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ004. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ012- 020-021. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for MNZ010>012-018- 019-025-026-033>038. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...BJH AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1029 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 - Widespread strong and damaging winds continue into tonight so high wind warning will continue as is. - The combination of snow with strong winds will continue to cause near zero visibilities over a wide area of central lower Michigan into tonight so the blizzard warning will continue as is. - Turning colder tonight through Tuesday which is a concern for those that will lose power, which is likely to be many. - Snow expected Wednesday (3" to 5") - Possible major storm with wind and snow Friday/Saturday then much colder with highs below 10 possible Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Will leave the warnings as is. Just spoke to Emergency Management in Osceola Co (Reed City - in the Blizzard Warning) and it sounds really bad. Visibilities are consistently near zero and even some of the main roads are becoming impassable with severe drifting. They have shut down city and county government as well as the schools. Also the Big Rapids AWOS has been consistently at 1/4 mile visibility or less all evening. Some of this heavier snow has been extending southeast across Montcalm/Ionia County in toward Lansing this evening. As bad as conditions are currently inland from lake Michigan, very little has been happening near the lakeshore. Ludington, Muskegon, Holland, South Haven have all been reporting visibilities above 6 miles all evening, with generally only flurries. It is tempting to remove the blizzard warning in Mason/Oceana for this reason, but since the blizzard conditions aren`t too far away to the east will just keep those counties grouped in. Have had to re-work the pops/snow amts, etc. since the very strong winds have been keeping the best snows near and east of Highway 131. The snow intensity is expected to diminish after midnight as the deeper moisture pulls away. Also the snow showers should migrate back closer to Lake Michigan late tonight/Monday morning as the winds begin to gradually subside. Latest pressure analysis has our sfc low at 972 mb, and it may still drop a tad before filling overnight and lifting east- northeast. While it will stay quite windy overnight, the peak gusts have likely occurred and we will now very slowly/gradually start to see a diminishing trend. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 As expected the strong winds in the southwest quadrant of the departing and rapidly deepening storm (976 mb near PLN at 1 pm) have developed and are expected to continue into the overnight hours. The strongest winds, gusts in the 55 mph to 65 mph range, are expected during the late afternoon an early evening. It will take until nearly midnight for the wind speed to start to decrease. By mid morning wind gusts should be under 40 mph and under 30 mph by mid afternoon. The Lake Michigan enhanced snowfall continues on the back side of the departing storm. The inversion heights , which are currently near 10000 ft do not start coming down until after sunset. The IR images and the water vapor image loops show the back edge of the deeper moisture pulling slowly northward. The southern edge is currently near South Haven. As this lifts north the snow bands will slowly decrease. Even so the coldest air does not move into the area (1000 to 850 mb) until mid morning Monday. The lift in the 925 to 850 mb layer remains strong along the lake shore till after midnight. As a result I would expect snow showers to continue into the early morning hours of Monday over lake shore area inland to near US-131. The heaviest snowfall will be over our northern CWA where the blizzard warning is. It is in that area where the deep moisture stays the longest and there is some lift related elevation increase too due to the west winds. The NAM has done better than the HRRR with respect to where it would be snowing and where it would not be snowing. The NAM is a bit high on total snowfall snowfall amounts but even so still the area of snowfall was and continues to be superior to the HRRR. We used the NAM as a basis to forecast the areas that would and would not see snow into tonight. So, given the snowfall occurring and is expected to occur in conjunction with high winds we will continue our blizzard warning as is. The snow showers should come to an end across the area during the morning hour so Monday as a large surface high builds into the area and the deep cold air departs the area (Polar jet lifts north of the area). Skies may not clear through as a shallow inversion remains to trap the moisture for the low clouds. It will be much colder Monday than today as 850 temps remain below -10c. There are two more systems of note this coming week. On Wednesday we have coupled jet feature (northern stream entrance region with southern stream exit region) creating a surface wave that results in a warm advection lift snow event. This looks good for 2 to 4 inches of snow at this point. The GFS has been forecasting this event for nearly a week now. The ECMWF has only starting picking up on the event in the past 36 hours. A more significant storm is expected toward next weekend. This event is the result of northern stream cold core upper low coming in phase with a southern stream wave. Once again the GFS has been much more consistent with this event compared to the ECMWF. However at this point both have been forecasting it for each model run since the 23rd at 00z. This storm tracks over Lake Huron instead of Lake Michigan so it would largely be a snow storm. It also gets very deep (below 985 mb) so it would be another windy storm. This time through we get arctic air to start the month of March, highs may not get above 10 on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Sfc wind gusts are peaking this evening, with some gusts near 50 kts still possible through about midnight. Then a very gradual decreasing trend to the sustained winds and wind gusts will occur overnight and Monday. Snow showers and blowing snow will result in highly variable conditions tonight. In general MVFR conditions will prevail, although times of IFR or lower are possible. Snow showers are expected to gradually diminish on Monday, although MVFR cigs probably lingering all day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 High river levels continue from snow melt and the half inch (more or less ) of rainfall that occurred overnight. At this point no flooding is expected even through river levels continue to be high. The cold temperatures expected this week will likely result in more ice development on area rivers, increasing the threat of additional ice jams. We continue to monitor the ice jam on the Grand River at Portland. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ046-050>052- 056>059-064>067-071>074. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ037>040-043>045. && $$ UPDATE...Meade SYNOPSIS...WDM DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
601 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 A tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high over the northern CONUS and a deep surface low over SE Canada was producing strong W/NW winds across the region this afternoon. Deep mixing and strong winds aloft were also producing widespread wind gusts of 30-40+ kts across the region this afternoon. BUFKIT soundings from the RAP and HRRR for KUIN and K3LF show 40-50kt winds aloft during the afternoon hours along with the deep mixing required to transport some of those winds to the surface. A few counties on the western side of the existing Wind Advisory have been cancelled early due to lower observed wind gusts, and the remainder of the existing Wind Advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 00z if current trends hold. A colder air mass as well as clear skies beneath a ridge axis will contribute to unusually cold temperatures tonight. Overnight lows will be 5-15 degrees below normal, ranging from around 10 degrees in NE MO/west central IL to the low/mid 20s in southwestern IL. The surface ridge axis continues to influence the region on Monday. Although the air temperatures on Monday will be very similar to Sunday, it will feel much warmer due to the lack of wind. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Model solutions depict quasizonal to weakly NW flow aloft through the middle of the week. A disorganized PV anomaly is forecast to move through the flow and bring a chance of precipitation to the region on Wed night and Thu. There is low certainty regarding precipitation types and amounts with this event due to significant model disagreements regarding the vertical temperature profile. This feature should also lift a frontal boundary northward on Tue, leading to warmer temperatures (especially near and south of I-70) for Tue and Wed until a 1030 hPa surface high moving towards the Great Lakes pushes the boundary southward again. ECMWF/GFS/GEM all depict a deep upper trough moving through the central CONUS towards the end of next week or early next weekend, but they do not agree on the timing or strength of this feature. All 3 models also depict a strong Arctic surface high sliding into the northern CONUS behind the trough, but again there are timing differences between the models. This would suggest a period of precipitation (likely rain changing to snow) followed by at least a few days of colder-than-normal temperatures. Kanofsky && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Strong west-northwest surface winds will gradually diminish through the night as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as the intense surface low, just northeast of MI continues moving northeastward, while the surface ridge centered over the northern Plains builds southeastward into MO and IL. Winds should be relatively light by Wednesday morning with the surface ridge axis extending over the Mississippi River at 12Z Monday. The wind will become east-southeasterly Monday afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the area. Only some high level cloudiness is expected this forecast period. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Strong west-northwest surface winds will gradually diminish through the night as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as the intense surface low, just northeast of MI continues moving northeastward, while the surface ridge centered over the northern Plains builds southeastward into MO and IL. Winds should be relatively light by Wednesday morning with the surface ridge axis extending over the Mississippi River at 12Z Monday. The wind will become east-southeasterly Monday afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the area. Only some high level cloudiness is expected this forecast period. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 326 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019 ...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPPER MI THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/HIGH WINDS... Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a vigorous shortwave/mid- level low lifting quickly ne across far eastern Lake Superior into Ontario. At the sfc, rapidly deepening sfc low of 973 mb was located near Earlton, Ontario at 21z. For anytime of the year, this is an unusually deep sfc low tracking through the northern Great Lakes. Northern stream shortwave moving in from the northern Plains has phased with the main wave and this along with continued forcing in deformation zone/comma head of system has been a factor in maintaining the system snow across the area today. Northwest winds have really strengthened this afternoon in the wake of the deep, intensifying sfc low and ahead of a 1040mb sfc high building se toward the Dakotas. This along with stronger caa kicking in from w to e late toward evening and pres rises upwards of 8-10 mb/3hr developing over/just nw of the area are working in concert to really crank up winds. Momentum transfer on fcst soundings support wind gusts of 40-50mph across the board with peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph possible. Of particular concern is the area east of Marquette close to Lake Superior. Increased mixing over Lake Superior could support 65 to perhaps 70mph gusts along the lakeshore. Across the area, there will likely be some tree limbs and power lines downed by the winds. Sporadic power outages are expected with widespread power outages a possibility. With the very cold air surging into the area for tonight and Mon, the prospect of potentially long duration power outages is a serious concern. Heaviest pcpn with the system has already lifted out of s central Upper MI. Cyclonic northerly flow has backed nw and with increased caa, lake enhanced/upslope snow is impacting all counties along Lake Superior with heavier snow even reaching into Delta and southern Schoolcraft counties. Strong winds should break up enough of the lake ice to allow heat/moisture fluxes to sustain lake enhanced/lake effect snow. The strong winds will likely also displace upslope enhancement much farther inland than normally occurs. Often in such cases, enhancement will be displaced beyond the Keweenaw, and it`s quite likely that Baraga County/parts of western Marquette County and perhaps eastern Gogebic/southern Ontonagon/nw Iron Counties will see the best enhancement. Herman in Baraga County may be a prime location for greatest storm total snowfall. Eastern Dakotas shortwave will provide further assistance to the snowfall into the evening hours. Deeper moisture will depart from w to e tonight, but still expect perhaps 4-7 inches of new snow across the nw and eastern fcst area snow belts late this afternoon into tonight. Storm total accumulations by sunrise Mon will likely exceed 1 foot across the w and nw with amounts locally up to 2 feet over the higher terrain of the nw fcst area including Baraga and nw Marquette County. 8 to as much as 12 inches should be the rule for the n central/ne fcst area, ranging down to 1 to 3 inches s central. With the combination of falling snow/high winds/blsn/frequent whiteouts, blizzard warnings will continue into the evening/early overnight hours for most counties. Alger-Luce and northern Schoolcraft blizzard warning will continue through 12Z Mon as M-28 will likely remained closed into Mon morning. Travel has become very difficult to impossible across the w and nrn tier and should be avoided. Where high snow banks line the shoulders of roads, deep drifting will likely occur once the strong winds/blsn develop, making some of them impassable. Wind chills will likely lower toward advisory criteria of 25 below over the inland west half of Upper Mi overnight into early Mon morning. Evening or mid shift may need to issue headlines for wind chills when winter storm and blizzard warnings expire later tonight. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019 We`re looking at a bitterly cold first half of the week arctic air spilling down across the Upper Great Lakes. Through the end of the week, temperatures will warm slightly, but will remain well below- normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will start off in the low to mid teens Tuesday and will climb up into the 20s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold, especially in locations that see clearing skies given the fresh snowpack. Wouldn`t be surprised if wind chill advisory may be needed on Tuesday morning due to the bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values around 25 below. As for precipitation chances later this week. Expect lake effect snow Monday night into Tuesday across the northwest wind snow belts. Given the bitterly cold arctic air mass progged to be in place, expect this lake effect snow to be efficient at reducing visibilities due to small snowflakes. Then, Tuesday we will see a break in the weather with mostly dry conditions across the area as high pressure moves overhead. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning a quick moving shortwave will bring a chance for snow across the area. Right now, it doesn`t appear to be anything major. Following behind the shortwave will be lake effect snow showers across the west wind snow belts, Wednesday into Friday. Given the significant winds observed with the ongoing system across the region, ice cover is certainly going to change across the lake, thus having a large impact on where lake effect snow showers may be more persistent and efficient. With likely a limited view of how the ice cover will change ahead of these lake effect snow events due to persistent cloud cover, do not expect models to handle QPF well during these events. This means, confidence in how impactful this lake effect snow will be is low! Otherwise, attention then turns towards the potential for another deepening low pressure system to track across the Upper Great Lakes. Far too early to say for any certainty if the system will impact the Great Lakes, but it`s worth keeping a close eye on as we progress through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 721 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019 Very strong northwest winds gusting to 35 to 45kt this evening have developed in the wake of a deep low. At KCMX, Conditions below airfield mins with VLIFR vsby will continue through this evening and then slowly improve to IFR vsby overnight lingering blsn. Expect improvement to MVFR by late morning and then VFR in the afternoon. At KSAW and KIWD, LIFR vsby with blsn will also continue this evening with some imrprovement after 06z as the wind diminishes. MVFR conditions are then expected by morning with VFR by midday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 326 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019 NW storms to 50-60 knots over the central and eastern portions of the lake will continue into tonight. Gales to 45 knots this evening will subside over the western half overnight and over the eastern half by midday Monday. After that, quiet conditions expected through much of next week with gusts less than 20 knots over the western half and less than 25 knots over the eastern half. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Blizzard Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ002-009-010-084. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ006-007-085. Blizzard Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ001-003>005. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ012>014. Lake Superior... Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ243>248-264-265. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for LSZ162- 240>242-263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Voss