Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/25/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1104 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the mid Atlantic states will move along the
Maine Coast overnight and then slowly across the Maritimes
Monday and Monday night. Canadian high pressure will then build
towards the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 PM Update...Added mention of tstms for Downeast through
midnight w/elevated CAPE of around 100 joules as noted by the
LAPS and RAP soundings. Lightning detection showed a few strike
across Downeast areas. Otrw, Forecast remains on track with
snow of varying intensity across the north, and snow mixed with
sleet and freezing rain in southern areas. Snow amounts were
slightly decreased in east central areas where some sleet has
been holding amounts down. Also, took down the wind advisory for
the Downeast coast with winds diminishing as the low center
nears the coast. Temps were taken down a couple degrees over the
north. The secondary is pulling in some cooler air from the
east.
Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will track northeast across downeast Maine
tonight and intensify as it tracks east through the Canadian
Maritimes on Monday. Across northern and central areas snow will
continue through much of the overnight hours, before tapering
to snow showers well after midnight. Additional snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with storm total
accumulations 7 to 11 inches expected by daybreak. A Winter
Storm Warning remains up overnight for northern and central
areas. Across interior downeast, including the greater Bangor
region, snow will mix with sleet and rain, possibly changing to
all rain before ending after midnight. Expect storm total snow
accumulations there to range from 3 to 6 inches. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains up for interior downeast, including the
greater Bangor region overnight. Along the downeast coast, snow
is expected to change to all rain, with accumulations expected
to generally range from 1 to 3 inches. A low level jet crossing
the downeast coast will result in gusty winds into this evening
and a wind advisory remains in effect for the downeast coast of
Maine into tonight.
The low will continue to move east of the Canadian Maritimes on
Monday. Snow showers are expected to persist through much of the
day across the far north with some areas picking up an
additional inch or two of snow during Monday, with scattered
snow showers across central and downeast areas. As the low
continues to track east of the region, the gradient is expected
to increase during the afternoon with winds gusting to 35 to 40
mph across western sections. Areas of blowing snow will be a
factor later Monday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The arctic front will just be finishing crossing far NE ptns of
the FA from the WSW as both the sfc and upper low ovr the Ern
Maritimes conts to slowly move ENE toward the open Atlc. Winds
will be on the increase behind this front, with blsn and wind
adv wind gusts the main concerns, and then wind chills very late
Mon ngt into Tue morn. For now, it behooves us to hold off on
issuing hdlns for these events until current hdlns with the wntr
stm are winding down, so not to mix-up messaging to partners and
public alike.
Strong winds, blsn, and bitter wind chills will cont thru the
day Tue and into the eve, with blsn subsiding late Tue ngt as
winds slowly decrease. Otherwise, Wed will be fair, but cont`d
very cold and brisk with diminishing winds Wed ngt. For now, we
kept very low PoPs with a weaker low affecting Srn/Cntrl ptns of
New Eng S of our FA as per blended long range model guidance
with some hi/mid cld cvr, with only the 00z GFS dtmnstc and
ensbls indicating this system affecting the SW third of the FA
with lgt snfl. We will monitor trends with this system, although
it should be noted that moisture alg the Nrn periphery of this
low will fighting very dry llvl arctic air in place ovr our Rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Whats left of any cld cvr Downeast with the departing weak low
pres well S of Nova Scotia will exit the FA by Thu mid morn
leaving clrg skies withe lgt winds Thu aftn as sfc hi pres
settles ovr the area. Otherwise, ptly sunny skies and somewhat
milder temps xpctd Fri after on last chilly ngt Thu ngt.
The next chance of sig precip will be later Sat into Sun as
another primary low moves NE from the great lakes into SW QB
prov while another secondary low forms along the triple point
near the SE New Eng coast, not to dis-similar to tdy`s current
stm system. For now, we leaned more toward the colder msly all
sn scenario (xcpt perhaps a mix ovr Downeast areas) 00z dtmnstc
ECMWF model solution, which is favored climatologically even
for erly Mar ovr the the warmer 00Z GFS solution which was
warmer than its own ensm fcst. Max PoPs with this event were
raised to the high likely category.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected
through tonight in snow north and snow or mixed precipitation
downeast. Steady precipitation is expected to wind down after
midnight downeast, and toward daybreak across the northern
terminals. IFR is expected to persist at the northern terminals
on Monday in snow showers, with MVFR/VFR in scattered snow
showers downeast.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs/vsbys and attms IFR vsbys in
sn/shwrs and blsn will prevail across the N Mon ngt and Tue
while Downeast sites will be VFR. Nrn sites will then become VFR
Tue ngt in addition to Downeast sites, with all sites remaining
VFR thru Fri.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will continue to increase this evening ahead of
low pressure approaching from the southwest. Winds will then
diminish for a while late tonight into early Monday morning
before increasing Monday afternoon. A Storm Warning has been
issued for later Monday afternoon into Monday night.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: No chgs to the current hdlns structure, with
stm force wind gusts ongoing Mon eve and contg into the ovrngt
hrs with the strong back side sfc pres grad of the departing
secondary sfc low. Aftwrds, a lengthy pd of gale force winds
can be xpctd late Mon ngt thru Tue/Tue ngt and potentially even
into Wed morn prior to winds finally lowering back into the SCA
range later Wed as Can sfc hi pres only makes slow progress
toward our Rgn. Kept close to WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts
thru these ptns of the fcst.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-010-
011-031-032.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ015>017.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...BloomerHewitt
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/VJN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
854 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Winds have been slowly diminishing this evening and that will
continue overnight. We will let the Blizzard Warning for Iron
County go at 9 PM as well as the Winter Weather Advisories for
Bayfield, Ashland, and Price Counties. There will still be some
blowing and drifting, especially along the South Shore through
about midnight but visibility restrictions will be limited. KIWD
has been down to 1.5SM for awhile but there is also some light
snow there which will diminish late evening as the storm continues
to move away from the region. Satellite shows clouds were
diminishing and that will also limit any lake effect snow. There
could be an additional inch overnight in the snowbelt of Iron
County. The winds along the North Shore were still strong with
Grand Marais reporting 30 to 40 mph as of 236Z. Those winds will
slowly come down overnight but it will take some time.
UPDATE Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Winds continued to gust to 25 to 45 MPH across the CWA early this
evening with the strongest winds around Lake Superior up into the
Iron Range. Plenty of blowing and drifting snow continued,
although the visibility from observational sites were all at or
above a mile. Light snow continued over the Arrowhead and along
part of the South Shore which was aiding in reducing the
visibility there. The wind will only slowly diminish through the
evening and will stay the strongest along the North Shore.
Guidance still shows strong winds into early morning but the
guidance has also been running too high so far today. We will
likely allow most of the Winter Weather Advisory over northern
Minnesota to expire at 6 PM and may transition the Blizzard
Warning for the North Shore to a Winter Weather Advisory as the
visibility reductions just are not occurring. Gusts of 40 to 45
mph with some locally higher will remain possible well into the
evening. We will keep the Blizzard Warning as is for Iron County
in Wisconsin. We are leaning toward adding a Winter Weather
Advisory for Price/Ashland, and possibly Bayfield Counties for
blowing snow to replace the warnings in effect there for a few
more hours.
Cold air will continue to move in tonight and Wind Chill
Advisories will be needed for the entire Northland and we plan on
issuing those around 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
The focus for this afternoon and early evening continues to be the
on-going winter system, which will continue to depart the region,
but some strong northwesterly winds will persist through the
evening, which should lead to blowing and drifting snow through the
evening hours. Dangerously cold wind chills will then move into the
region this evening and overnight. A Wind Chill Advisory will likely
be needed.
The surface low pressure, which was responsible for the heavy
snowfall over northern Wisconsin is now currently centered over
southeastern Ontario. This surface low has been deepening throughout
the day, going from 982 mb at 6 AM this morning to 974 mb as of 3 PM
this afternoon - nearly one millibar/hour fall. The resulting
pressure gradient has brought a period of strong northwest winds
across the area, with wind gusts between 30 to 45 mph, leading to
blowing and drifting snow. Eventually, the surface pressure gradient
will slacken overnight as the low moves away, but some strong cold
air advection brought in by the northwest flow should keep some of
the stronger wind gusts along the North Shore through the evening
hours. The latest NAM, GFS, and RAP soundings show some deeper
boundary layer mixing, tapping into stronger flow aloft along the
North Shore. Since these strong northwest winds will continue into
the evening hours, decided to extend the Blizzard Warning through 9
PM this evening. As the blowing snow threat diminishes, the strong
cold air advection will usher in some much colder temperatures,
resulting in dangerous wind chills this evening and overnight. Wind
chill temperatures will fall into the -25 to -40 degree range, with
850 mb temperatures cooling into the -20 to -30 degree range. A Wind
Chill Advisory will likely be needed for much of the Northland once
the current headlines expire. With these cold temperatures aloft,
there will be a window of some lake effect snow potential as well,
but this window appears to be fairly small as the low-level moisture
erodes away due to drier air pouring into the region.
Monday will be a dry day overall, with high pressure building into
the region from southern Saskatchewan. On the southern periphery of
the high, a band of 850-700 mb layer FGEN will be situated across
South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota late tonight, which should
result in some cloud cover over our southern counties Monday morning
and into the afternoon. There doesn`t appear to be enough moisture
to support precipitation, per the latest model soundings at BRD.
Areas along the international border might remain mostly sunny
throughout the day Monday. I`ve continued the trend of some
relatively warmer temperatures over northwest Wisconsin due to low
albedo effects from area tree coverage, with highs remaining near
zero over north-central Minnesota to the upper single digits above
zero over northwest Wisconsin.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
High pressure will lead to clear skies and cold temperatures for
Monday night into Tuesday. Lowered the lows Monday night just a
touch as the clear skies and light winds result in good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the upper teens
and lower 20s below zero. It won`t take much to get wind chills in
the -25 to -30 range at those temperatures, so a Wind Chill
Advisory may be needed. Warm air advection will set up over the
area later on Tuesday as some enhanced vorticity moves into the
Northern Plains. This will lead to some light snow showers Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. The NAM and GFS are a bit
stronger with this system with the ECMWF being weaker, but timing
is pretty similar across the three. Current thinking is that only
a couple inches will be possible, mainly for areas along and south
of US 2.
Wednesday night through Thursday night will feature quiet
conditions as weak high pressure moves through. There may be some
lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior,
but the western end of the lake is pretty well iced over and that
could limit the extent of the snow. Temperatures will be slightly
below normal.
Heading into the end of the week, models continue to show the
potential for another winter storm. While there were drastic
differences in the 23.06z suite, runs since then have been fairly
consistent. An area of low pressure over Manitoba will look to
phase with an area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. The
southerly low will then eject out of the Rockies and into the
Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. This system will then
move to the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. Timing and location
are fairly similar between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian, increasing
confidence in a storm across the Nation`s mid-section heading into
the weekend. The current track keeps the low well south of the
area, but there is the potential for accumulating snow in our area
from this system being in the north side of the storm. Plenty of
time for this to change, but it certainly is the most interesting
feature in the long range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Strong winds continue to produce blowing snow with the visibility
of 2 to 5 miles in spots. There was still some snow showers,
mainly in the Arrowhead and along portions of the South Shore
with the visibility of 3/4SM to 2SM. Much of the region will see
clouds diminish tonight but it will take longest in the Arrowhead
and along the South Shore where MVFR ceilings will occur. The wind
will only slowly subside tonight gusts remaining well into the
evening, and for areas near Lake Superior, well into the night.
Some high clouds will affect mainly the south half of the
Northland on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14 4 -16 10 / 10 0 0 20
INL -24 0 -22 10 / 10 0 0 10
BRD -19 3 -18 8 / 0 0 0 50
HYR -15 7 -18 12 / 10 0 0 30
ASX -8 7 -14 12 / 60 0 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for WIZ001>004-
006>009.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ002-
003-009.
Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ004.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ012-
020-021.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for MNZ010>012-018-
019-025-026-033>038.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1029 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
- Widespread strong and damaging winds continue into tonight so
high wind warning will continue as is.
- The combination of snow with strong winds will continue to cause
near zero visibilities over a wide area of central lower
Michigan into tonight so the blizzard warning will continue as
is.
- Turning colder tonight through Tuesday which is a concern for
those that will lose power, which is likely to be many.
- Snow expected Wednesday (3" to 5")
- Possible major storm with wind and snow Friday/Saturday then
much colder with highs below 10 possible Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
Will leave the warnings as is.
Just spoke to Emergency Management in Osceola Co (Reed City - in
the Blizzard Warning) and it sounds really bad. Visibilities are
consistently near zero and even some of the main roads are
becoming impassable with severe drifting. They have shut down city
and county government as well as the schools.
Also the Big Rapids AWOS has been consistently at 1/4 mile
visibility or less all evening. Some of this heavier snow has
been extending southeast across Montcalm/Ionia County in toward
Lansing this evening.
As bad as conditions are currently inland from lake Michigan,
very little has been happening near the lakeshore. Ludington,
Muskegon, Holland, South Haven have all been reporting
visibilities above 6 miles all evening, with generally only
flurries. It is tempting to remove the blizzard warning in
Mason/Oceana for this reason, but since the blizzard conditions
aren`t too far away to the east will just keep those counties
grouped in.
Have had to re-work the pops/snow amts, etc. since the very
strong winds have been keeping the best snows near and east of
Highway 131. The snow intensity is expected to diminish after
midnight as the deeper moisture pulls away. Also the snow showers
should migrate back closer to Lake Michigan late tonight/Monday
morning as the winds begin to gradually subside.
Latest pressure analysis has our sfc low at 972 mb, and it may
still drop a tad before filling overnight and lifting east-
northeast. While it will stay quite windy overnight, the peak
gusts have likely occurred and we will now very slowly/gradually
start to see a diminishing trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
As expected the strong winds in the southwest quadrant of the
departing and rapidly deepening storm (976 mb near PLN at 1 pm)
have developed and are expected to continue into the overnight
hours. The strongest winds, gusts in the 55 mph to 65 mph range,
are expected during the late afternoon an early evening. It will
take until nearly midnight for the wind speed to start to
decrease. By mid morning wind gusts should be under 40 mph and
under 30 mph by mid afternoon.
The Lake Michigan enhanced snowfall continues on the back side of
the departing storm. The inversion heights , which are currently
near 10000 ft do not start coming down until after sunset. The IR
images and the water vapor image loops show the back edge of the
deeper moisture pulling slowly northward. The southern edge is
currently near South Haven. As this lifts north the snow bands
will slowly decrease. Even so the coldest air does not move into
the area (1000 to 850 mb) until mid morning Monday. The lift in
the 925 to 850 mb layer remains strong along the lake shore till
after midnight. As a result I would expect snow showers to
continue into the early morning hours of Monday over lake shore
area inland to near US-131. The heaviest snowfall will be over
our northern CWA where the blizzard warning is. It is in that
area where the deep moisture stays the longest and there is some
lift related elevation increase too due to the west winds. The
NAM has done better than the HRRR with respect to where it would
be snowing and where it would not be snowing. The NAM is a bit
high on total snowfall snowfall amounts but even so still the area
of snowfall was and continues to be superior to the HRRR. We used
the NAM as a basis to forecast the areas that would and would not
see snow into tonight.
So, given the snowfall occurring and is expected to occur in
conjunction with high winds we will continue our blizzard warning
as is.
The snow showers should come to an end across the area during the
morning hour so Monday as a large surface high builds into the
area and the deep cold air departs the area (Polar jet lifts north
of the area). Skies may not clear through as a shallow inversion
remains to trap the moisture for the low clouds. It will be much
colder Monday than today as 850 temps remain below -10c.
There are two more systems of note this coming week. On Wednesday
we have coupled jet feature (northern stream entrance region with
southern stream exit region) creating a surface wave that results
in a warm advection lift snow event. This looks good for 2 to 4
inches of snow at this point. The GFS has been forecasting this
event for nearly a week now. The ECMWF has only starting picking
up on the event in the past 36 hours.
A more significant storm is expected toward next weekend. This
event is the result of northern stream cold core upper low coming
in phase with a southern stream wave. Once again the GFS has been
much more consistent with this event compared to the ECMWF.
However at this point both have been forecasting it for each
model run since the 23rd at 00z. This storm tracks over Lake Huron
instead of Lake Michigan so it would largely be a snow storm. It
also gets very deep (below 985 mb) so it would be another windy
storm. This time through we get arctic air to start the month of
March, highs may not get above 10 on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
Sfc wind gusts are peaking this evening, with some gusts near 50
kts still possible through about midnight. Then a very gradual
decreasing trend to the sustained winds and wind gusts will occur
overnight and Monday.
Snow showers and blowing snow will result in highly variable
conditions tonight. In general MVFR conditions will prevail,
although times of IFR or lower are possible. Snow showers are
expected to gradually diminish on Monday, although MVFR cigs
probably lingering all day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
High river levels continue from snow melt and the half inch (more
or less ) of rainfall that occurred overnight. At this point no
flooding is expected even through river levels continue to be high.
The cold temperatures expected this week will likely result in more
ice development on area rivers, increasing the threat of
additional ice jams. We continue to monitor the ice jam on the
Grand River at Portland.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ046-050>052-
056>059-064>067-071>074.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ037>040-043>045.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...WDM
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
601 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
A tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high over the
northern CONUS and a deep surface low over SE Canada was producing
strong W/NW winds across the region this afternoon. Deep mixing
and strong winds aloft were also producing widespread wind gusts
of 30-40+ kts across the region this afternoon. BUFKIT soundings
from the RAP and HRRR for KUIN and K3LF show 40-50kt winds aloft
during the afternoon hours along with the deep mixing required to
transport some of those winds to the surface. A few counties on
the western side of the existing Wind Advisory have been cancelled
early due to lower observed wind gusts, and the remainder of the
existing Wind Advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 00z if
current trends hold.
A colder air mass as well as clear skies beneath a ridge axis will
contribute to unusually cold temperatures tonight. Overnight lows
will be 5-15 degrees below normal, ranging from around 10 degrees
in NE MO/west central IL to the low/mid 20s in southwestern IL.
The surface ridge axis continues to influence the region on
Monday. Although the air temperatures on Monday will be very
similar to Sunday, it will feel much warmer due to the lack of
wind.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Model solutions depict quasizonal to weakly NW flow aloft through
the middle of the week. A disorganized PV anomaly is forecast to
move through the flow and bring a chance of precipitation to the
region on Wed night and Thu. There is low certainty regarding
precipitation types and amounts with this event due to
significant model disagreements regarding the vertical temperature
profile. This feature should also lift a frontal boundary
northward on Tue, leading to warmer temperatures (especially near
and south of I-70) for Tue and Wed until a 1030 hPa surface high
moving towards the Great Lakes pushes the boundary southward
again.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all depict a deep upper trough moving through the
central CONUS towards the end of next week or early next weekend,
but they do not agree on the timing or strength of this feature.
All 3 models also depict a strong Arctic surface high sliding into
the northern CONUS behind the trough, but again there are timing
differences between the models. This would suggest a period of
precipitation (likely rain changing to snow) followed by at least
a few days of colder-than-normal temperatures.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019
Strong west-northwest surface winds will gradually diminish
through the night as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as the
intense surface low, just northeast of MI continues moving
northeastward, while the surface ridge centered over the northern
Plains builds southeastward into MO and IL. Winds should be
relatively light by Wednesday morning with the surface ridge axis
extending over the Mississippi River at 12Z Monday. The wind will
become east-southeasterly Monday afternoon as the surface ridge
shifts east of the area. Only some high level cloudiness is
expected this forecast period.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Strong west-northwest surface winds will gradually diminish
through the night as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as the
intense surface low, just northeast of MI continues moving
northeastward, while the surface ridge centered over the northern
Plains builds southeastward into MO and IL. Winds should be
relatively light by Wednesday morning with the surface ridge axis
extending over the Mississippi River at 12Z Monday. The wind will
become east-southeasterly Monday afternoon as the surface ridge
shifts east of the area. Only some high level cloudiness is
expected this forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019
...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPPER MI THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/HIGH WINDS...
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a vigorous shortwave/mid-
level low lifting quickly ne across far eastern Lake Superior into
Ontario. At the sfc, rapidly deepening sfc low of 973 mb was located
near Earlton, Ontario at 21z. For anytime of the year, this is an
unusually deep sfc low tracking through the northern Great Lakes.
Northern stream shortwave moving in from the northern Plains has
phased with the main wave and this along with continued forcing in
deformation zone/comma head of system has been a factor in
maintaining the system snow across the area today.
Northwest winds have really strengthened this afternoon in the wake
of the deep, intensifying sfc low and ahead of a 1040mb sfc high
building se toward the Dakotas. This along with stronger caa kicking
in from w to e late toward evening and pres rises upwards of 8-10
mb/3hr developing over/just nw of the area are working in concert to
really crank up winds. Momentum transfer on fcst soundings support
wind gusts of 40-50mph across the board with peak gusts of 55 to 65
mph possible. Of particular concern is the area east of Marquette
close to Lake Superior. Increased mixing over Lake Superior could
support 65 to perhaps 70mph gusts along the lakeshore. Across the
area, there will likely be some tree limbs and power lines downed by
the winds. Sporadic power outages are expected with widespread power
outages a possibility. With the very cold air surging into the area
for tonight and Mon, the prospect of potentially long duration power
outages is a serious concern.
Heaviest pcpn with the system has already lifted out of s central
Upper MI. Cyclonic northerly flow has backed nw and with increased
caa, lake enhanced/upslope snow is impacting all counties along Lake
Superior with heavier snow even reaching into Delta and southern
Schoolcraft counties. Strong winds should break up enough of the
lake ice to allow heat/moisture fluxes to sustain lake enhanced/lake
effect snow. The strong winds will likely also displace upslope
enhancement much farther inland than normally occurs. Often in such
cases, enhancement will be displaced beyond the Keweenaw, and it`s
quite likely that Baraga County/parts of western Marquette County
and perhaps eastern Gogebic/southern Ontonagon/nw Iron Counties
will see the best enhancement. Herman in Baraga County may be a
prime location for greatest storm total snowfall. Eastern Dakotas
shortwave will provide further assistance to the snowfall into the
evening hours. Deeper moisture will depart from w to e tonight,
but still expect perhaps 4-7 inches of new snow across the nw and
eastern fcst area snow belts late this afternoon into tonight.
Storm total accumulations by sunrise Mon will likely exceed 1 foot
across the w and nw with amounts locally up to 2 feet over the
higher terrain of the nw fcst area including Baraga and nw
Marquette County. 8 to as much as 12 inches should be the rule
for the n central/ne fcst area, ranging down to 1 to 3 inches s
central.
With the combination of falling snow/high winds/blsn/frequent
whiteouts, blizzard warnings will continue into the evening/early
overnight hours for most counties. Alger-Luce and northern
Schoolcraft blizzard warning will continue through 12Z Mon as M-28
will likely remained closed into Mon morning.
Travel has become very difficult to impossible across the w and nrn
tier and should be avoided. Where high snow banks line the shoulders
of roads, deep drifting will likely occur once the strong winds/blsn
develop, making some of them impassable.
Wind chills will likely lower toward advisory criteria of 25 below
over the inland west half of Upper Mi overnight into early Mon
morning. Evening or mid shift may need to issue headlines for
wind chills when winter storm and blizzard warnings expire later
tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019
We`re looking at a bitterly cold first half of the week arctic air
spilling down across the Upper Great Lakes. Through the end of the
week, temperatures will warm slightly, but will remain well below-
normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will start off in the
low to mid teens Tuesday and will climb up into the 20s by the end
of the week. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold, especially in
locations that see clearing skies given the fresh snowpack. Wouldn`t
be surprised if wind chill advisory may be needed on Tuesday morning
due to the bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values around
25 below.
As for precipitation chances later this week. Expect lake effect
snow Monday night into Tuesday across the northwest wind snow belts.
Given the bitterly cold arctic air mass progged to be in place,
expect this lake effect snow to be efficient at reducing visibilities
due to small snowflakes. Then, Tuesday we will see a break in the
weather with mostly dry conditions across the area as high pressure
moves overhead. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning a quick moving
shortwave will bring a chance for snow across the area. Right now,
it doesn`t appear to be anything major. Following behind the
shortwave will be lake effect snow showers across the west wind snow
belts, Wednesday into Friday. Given the significant winds observed
with the ongoing system across the region, ice cover is certainly
going to change across the lake, thus having a large impact on where
lake effect snow showers may be more persistent and efficient. With
likely a limited view of how the ice cover will change ahead of
these lake effect snow events due to persistent cloud cover, do not
expect models to handle QPF well during these events. This means,
confidence in how impactful this lake effect snow will be is low!
Otherwise, attention then turns towards the potential for another
deepening low pressure system to track across the Upper Great Lakes.
Far too early to say for any certainty if the system will impact the
Great Lakes, but it`s worth keeping a close eye on as we progress
through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 721 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019
Very strong northwest winds gusting to 35 to 45kt this evening have
developed in the wake of a deep low.
At KCMX, Conditions below airfield mins with VLIFR vsby will
continue through this evening and then slowly improve to IFR vsby
overnight lingering blsn. Expect improvement to MVFR by late
morning and then VFR in the afternoon.
At KSAW and KIWD, LIFR vsby with blsn will also continue this
evening with some imrprovement after 06z as the wind diminishes.
MVFR conditions are then expected by morning with VFR by midday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 326 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019
NW storms to 50-60 knots over the central and eastern portions of
the lake will continue into tonight. Gales to 45 knots this evening
will subside over the western half overnight and over the eastern
half by midday Monday. After that, quiet conditions expected through
much of next week with gusts less than 20 knots over the western
half and less than 25 knots over the eastern half.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Blizzard Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
MIZ002-009-010-084.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ006-007-085.
Blizzard Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ001-003>005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
MIZ012>014.
Lake Superior...
Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LSZ249>251-266-267.
Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ243>248-264-265.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for LSZ162-
240>242-263.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss