Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/20/19

/Previous forecast discussion issued 442 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/
Wednesday through Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft continues on Wednesday between a positively tilted longwave trough over the western CONUS and a strong subtropical ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Within the western CONUS trough, a negatively tilted shortwave over the Central Plains will continue to lift northward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while an additional vort max digs down the back side of the trough along the West Coast, reinforcing the longwave trough. A weak surface low will be over Mississippi, with another low beginning to deepen near Kansas City. A 1037 mb high will be centered near New York City, with a classical CAD wedge extending down the lee of the Appalachians into Central Alabama. A cold front will be over Mississippi with a warm front/wedge front extending southeastward into far southwest Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across Mississippi into far northwest Alabama in the warm conveyor belt ahead of front, aided by a 45-50kt LLJ. While some linear segments may be present, CAMs do not suggest a well-organized QLCS. Meanwhile further east across the rest of Central ALabama, a few lighter isentropic lift showers may be occurring. This activity will slowly inch eastward through the day, as flow will be largely parallel to it and it may lack cold pool organization. It will be maintained by the low level jet, some upper-level divergence from the right entrance region of a jet streak, the cold front, and perhaps some weak height falls at least initially. While area-average modeled QPF amounts aren`t as impressive as previously thought, this will still have the potential to produce pockets of locally heavy rainfall given the uni-directional flow promoting training, slow movement of the overall line, instability resulting in convection, and especially the high PWATs. The February monthly all-time PWAT record of 1.7 inches at BMX will definitely be in jeopardy. The flow parallel to the front will help limit significant lifting over the boundary, however. The main threat will be areal flooding of low- lying areas and streams, and eventual flooding on area rivers. This is why an areal flood watch is in effect rather than a flash flood watch. But some pockets of flash flooding will be possible as well, especially in urban areas, and quick rises on area creeks will occur. So use caution when traveling and do not drive on flooded road ways. Did expand the flood watch by a row of counties southward, based on expected QPF and to include the urban areas of Anniston/Oxford and Shelby County. By Thursday evening the front and associated moisture/precipitation axis along it will stall and become oriented from the southwest to the northeast. The precipitation area will probably contract some, centered along the front. Forcing will be weaker resulting in lighter rainfall rates, but these will only serve to continue to saturate soils and aggravate any ongoing flooding. The tricky part of the forecast Wednesday will be the erosion of the CAD wedge and retreat of the warm front/wedge front, which will impact temperatures, dew points, and resultant surface-based CAPE potential. Tonight`s CAMs followed suit with the NAM in indicating the warm front getting hung up along our southern border during the day on Wednesday. Thinking remains the same that the higher resolution models have a better handle on the CAD, though the long range HRRR and regional Canadian do show higher dew points. There may be a non-zero threat of a brief tornado if the warm front can lift up into our far southwest counties, but confidence in this occurring is too low to mention in the HWO at this time. Will note that the NAM suggests elevated MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg across the western half of the state and mid-level lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km and plenty of bulk shear, so some elevated hailers may be possible, and isolated severe hail cannot be ruled out if an elevated supercell forms. Did beef up the thunder mention in the grids in the west for this reason. Height rises aloft occur on Thursday as ridging builds over the eastern CONUS ahead of a closed low over the southwestern CONUS. This will be indicative of subsidence aloft. However, still expect a band of lighter rain to be ongoing along the front due to lift at low levels. While the surface front will remain stalled near I-85, southerly flow in the 925-850mb layer will begin to push the elevated portion of the front in that layer northward and the moisture axis also moves northward. Isentropic lift associated with the process will cause the band of light rain to move northward. Overall rainfall amounts in the watch area will be light, but could aggravate ongoing flooding. Could also see some shower and thunderstorm development south of the front in our far southeast counties with daytime heating of a moist air mass and additional moisture moving off the Gulf. With SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear around 45 kts, some of these storms could be strong, and an isolated severe storm with wind/hail cannot be ruled out. However, low-level shear will be confined to the cool side of the front, and the lack of an upper- level trigger should prevent anything from being too organized. Similar trends continue on Friday. Low pressure begins to develop over the southern High Plains, with a 30-35 kt LLJ developing over Mississippi into northwest Alabama. The warm front aloft should continue to push north of the area, while models disagree how quickly the surface warm front will push north with a weak wedge also potentially developing. The main heavy rain threat should set up north of the area from Arkansas to Tennessee, but rain chances remain high given the moist air mass. A similar threat for strong storms/possible isolated severe to Thursday exists, but encompassing more of the area. Models are in good agreement on a strong negatively tilted trough lifting from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night, accompanied by a deepening surface low and cold front. Strong heating of an expansive warm sector will occur on Saturday afternoon. If forcing is strong enough this far south, then there is the potential for supercells developing in Mississippi to track into at least our northwest counties due to 60-65kt southwesterlies at 500mb and a 50 kt LLJ, potentially followed by a QLCS. Will introduce a threat for tornadoes to the HWO. If the timing remains during the later afternoon and early evening versus overnight, and forcing is sufficient, an increase in the confidence factor is a definite possibility. Dry conditions finally arrive behind the front by midday Sunday. However, this looks to be short-lived, as models are already in agreement on another shortwave trough bringing more wet weather for Monday night and Tuesday. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. We remain in a very wet pattern and should remain socked in with low cigs through the forecast period. The current upper shortwave will continue to move to the north/northeast this evening. We should get a lull in the convection of at least the more widespread activity until during the day on Wednesday. Winds will stay up through the period as gradients remain tight. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread again by Wednesday afternoon as a warm front moves northward and ahead of a cold front approaching from MS. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A prolonged period of rainfall will continue through the end of the week, with a strong storm system expected over the weekend. Very wet conditions are expected, especially across the northern half of the area. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 43 60 51 59 52 / 90 100 100 80 70 Anniston 44 62 55 63 55 / 90 80 100 80 60 Birmingham 47 65 54 61 55 / 90 100 100 80 70 Tuscaloosa 49 66 53 60 55 / 90 100 90 80 60 Calera 47 66 55 63 56 / 90 90 100 80 60 Auburn 45 65 61 73 60 / 70 60 80 70 60 Montgomery 52 71 63 74 63 / 70 70 80 70 50 Troy 53 71 66 77 64 / 50 40 60 60 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne... Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...Pickens... Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
858 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019 The areas of light snow which persisted through the afternoon and early evening are on the decrease and moving eastward as the main upper trough moves out over the Central Plains. Radar data shows a few bands of heavier snow moving over central and eastern Elbert County, with light snow extending across Lincoln and Washington Counties. Cold temperatures and lower dew points are moving in from the north and northwest. Areas of stratus are evident over northern Weld County, but the latest HRRR shows that this cloud cover should remain north of the Denver Metro area overnight. Th emain changes to the evening forecast were removing the snowfall from the plains areas except for the Palmer Divide and up into Washington County. Palmer Divide locations may see another inch or so of accumulation overnight, and Washington and Lincoln Counties should see less than a half inch. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019 Current satellite IR picture shows moisture pulling up from the south and NE across the region. Another batch of moisture and CAA will move SE from Utah and into the central mountains by the evening hours. There will be a slight break over the mountains between the two disturbances but conditions are expected to remain mostly cloudy and cold. The next batch of energy is projected to impact the mountains around midnight with light to moderate snow. NAM model cross sections are showing 8-9 C/km lapse rates, which at first glance seems a tad high, but could indicate some instability in the mid levels that will increase snow intensity for a short period of time overnight. For the plains, a denver cyclone continues to spin, pulling in moisture from the SE and wrapping it around to the south keeping light snow across the region. Cyclone center remains just NE of the airport and is expected to break apart as increasing westerly flow moves in from the approaching system and a lee side low sets up over the northern foothills. This will aid in increasing westerly winds and dry out the low and mid levels over Denver, ending the snow. Accumulations into Wednesday evening will be 1 to 4 inches for the mountains with a trace to an inch across the plains, with the higher amounts east of a Sterling to limon line. Some gusting is possible over the higher northern foothills with increased subsidence during this time and some blowing snow may be possible early Wednesday morning with the low density snow. With the increased westerly winds by early Wednesday, conditions will partially clear out over the plains, minus the far eastern plains where some low level clouds may linger. Temperatures will drop into the low single digits overnight. For Wednesday, the upper trough will have moved out with increasing zonal flow aloft. There is enough moisture upstream ahead of the next upper level disturbance over Oregon to keep a slight chance of snow in the mountains through Wednesday, but amounts will be light and impact mainly the central and northern mountains. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly warmer in the 30s across the plains. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019 A brief period of ridging will develop over Colorado Wednesday night which will allow for mainly dry conditions across the CWA. Strengthening southwesterly mid to upper level flow will increase the chance for snow showers in the mountains during the second half of Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday will be around 10 degrees below normal across the majority of the CWA. By Thursday evening, the focus will shift to the trough digging into the Desert Southwest. Models are now showing a weak shortwave breaking off from the stronger trough and moving northeastward through Colorado early Friday morning. This will create a chance of snow showers in the mountains and foothills and northeastward across to the Cheyenne Ridge. In addition, a lee cyclone developing over east-central Colorado will likely develop low clouds over most of the South Platte River Valley. With shallow, low-level moisture in place, fog and perhaps freezing drizzle could develop but there remains considerable uncertainty with those developing so they were not included in the gridded forecast. The main portion of the trough will then eject onto the central plains Friday night and into Saturday with a surface cyclone developing over northeastern New Mexico. Models still produce moderate to heavy snowfall over the northwest side of this cyclone but overall guidance has shifted farther southeastward with this system. Therefore, it looks less likely that the eastern plains will receive moderate to heavy snowfall with this system unless there is a major shift back northwestward. Instead, there is a good chance of light snow over the eastern plains Friday night and Saturday with little impacts. Another system may affect Colorado Sunday night into Monday but there is little agreement in the models on this system and low confidence in the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 858 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019 Lingering snow flurries over the Denver area airports should be clearing out in the next hour or so. Drier air will be moving into the Denver area from the north and northwest through the night. Winds should remain light. Some low cloud decks may hang around through the early morning hours, but no ceilings below 2500 feet AGL are expected. No impacts from ceiling or visibility are expected tomorrow, but some gusty northwest winds may develop during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Dankers SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
552 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 409 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Confidence: High on snow chances and amounts tonight into Wednesday. Little overall changes to the system expected to impact the area tonight into Wednesday. Main changes was to shift the heavier snow axis a bit north, and increase amounts in that area slightly. Otherwise did delay onset of the heavier snow this evening, so made an adjustment to the start time of the Winter Storm Warning. Looks like main area of precipitation will begin to spread across southern and central Iowa toward mid/late evening. More dry air in place across the state today than models had originally had thus, looks like it will take a bit longer for snow to move into the state. Already seeing some mid level echoes across the far south, and may still see a flurry or some very light snow at times across the south/west early this evening. Otherwise push of moisture advection across Iowa by this evening into tonight. As the column saturates snow will spread and pick up in intensity overnight. Cross-sections indicate decent lift through the DGZ especially across central/northern Iowa late tonight and also some instability present aloft across most of the area. Strongest in the south from 06-12z. Therefore expecting fairly intense snowfall rates at times with a decent band moving through. Have trended initial pops toward the HRRR given the drier air to overcome. Much of the area to be covered in snow by late tonight with rates of 1-2 inches per hour at times. This will allow snow to build up quickly on roads and significantly reduce visibilities to less than 1/2 miles at times. Travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly after 03-06z through 12z. The bulk of the snow across metro area and southern Iowa to fall through 10-12z tonight, with some heavier snow into northern Iowa initially still Wednesday morning. The morning commute will be impacted at all sites. As the surface low tracks across Iowa from south to north through Wednesday morning, should start to see the snow lighten up and taper off from south to north through the day. Also have some drier air aloft move into the south/southeast which could allow for a transition to some light freezing drizzle/rain Wednesday morning resulting in a light glazing of ice potentially. The latest model sounding suggest the west/southwest could see some light snow linger a bit longer than previously anticipated with the deformation zone moving through Wednesday. Therefore did extend the Winter Storm Warning for Cass, Adair and Audubon Counties through the morning hours. Also similar for the extension of the western Hwy 20 counties from 18-21z Wednesday afternoon. As for amounts, kept fairly similar amounts as previous forecast. Latest track and potential for banded snow/higher snowfall rates shifts this axis slightly further north pushing the highest snowfall still in our forecast area west of I-35 and north of I-80. These trends can be further refined as the snow moves in, but a location within the heavier band may likely see close to 10" of snow or possible slightly higher. Otherwise widespread 8-10" in the west central to northwest looks most likely. Once the snow moves out Wednesday, dry conditions expected for Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds in to the state. Temperatures will remain chill with highs into the 20s to around 30 Thursday. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Tuesday/ Issued at 409 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 The active weather pattern continues into early next week. While timing and placement issues still exist, the current trends indicate that a winter storm will impact the state later Friday and persist through Sunday morning. On Friday an upper trough will deepen over the Plains eventually closing off into an upper low. As it deepens, it will tap warmer air and eventually a lot of deeper moisture sending this up over Iowa. As the precip potential increases across the far west late Friday, we will see a rain or freezing rain potential across the south with snow north. As the precip spreads across the state Friday night, ice introduction and temps are all sporadic and very messy giving us a wintry mix including the potential for rain far south, freezing rain or snow far north and freezing rain and sleet in between. Ice accruals during this period look to be around a tenth of an inch northwest and west with a secondary area southeast. Somewhat lighter amounts are expected across central sections. Late Saturday and Saturday night as the low lifts out of Kansas and into Southern Iowa a second shot of deeper moisture and much colder air sweeps in on the backside and precip changes over to snow northwest into central Iowa. Wind picks up during this period as well and this will be a period of moderate to heavy snowfall with wind across the northwest. Across central sections, light to moderate snowfall is expected and across the southeast, precip will change from rain to snow late with around an inch of so. The interesting thing with this area is that there is enough instability during the afternoon and evening that thunderstorms may be possible. Uncertainty with this is too high to include in the forecast for now but it is something that we will be evaluating as time goes on. Late Saturday night and Sunday morning, the system wraps up and lifts into the Great Lakes with deformation zone precip continuing north and northeast and the rest of the state seeing much colder and windy conditions. High pressure builds in for Sunday into Monday then by late Monday into Tuesday, another weak system pushes in from the west. A surface low over the Southern Plains with a frontal boundary extending into Missouri and possibly southeast Iowa will increase the forcing and moisture across southern/western Iowa which will spread precip across the state Monday night into Tuesday. with a couple of stronger systems to contend with first, and the high uncertainty with anything regarding the Monday/Tuesday system, we will not be highlighting this at this time. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Poor aviation weather will occur for much of the forecast period as widespread snowfall moves through the state. Severe restrictions to visibilities and ceilings are expected with widespread IFR to LIFR conditions late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some improvement is expected by Wednesday afternoon, mainly to visibilities as the snow ends. Winds will increase from the east tonight and become south to southwest by Wednesday afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for IAZ044>048-057>062-070>075-084>086. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-037>039-050. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ081>083-092>097. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for IAZ049. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ033-034. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ035-036. && $$ SHORT TERM...Beerends LONG TERM...FAB AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1010 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... Emphasis in the evening update is placed on the character of snow expected at the start of the event across the Winter Weather Advisory area. Rapid onset of snow remains projected in the 5-7 AM time window followed by a burst of heavier snow shortly after and lasting through mid morning. This has potential for stronger negative impact on the morning commute before the transition to wintry mix and then freezing rain/drizzle mid to late morning, which remain on track in terms of timing. As for the snow, there remains concern for the limiting factor of lower end snow-liquid ratio, as detailed in the afternoon discussion, but with trends toward higher QPF brushing the south 4 counties during the 12-15Z time period. These trends are supported by upstream observations across MO, KS, NB, and IA that report pockets of 1/4-1/2sm visibility in snow occuring with the leading zone of strong isentropic ascent that is expected to follow the entrance region of the upper jet into Lower Michigan toward sunrise. The rapid progression of forcing through the region does suggest just adding an inch to total accumulation for now along with greater emphasis on snow intensity in the WSW update. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 708 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 AVIATION... Surface high pressure exits the central Great Lakes while maintaining VFR across the area for almost the entire night. During this time, low pressure continues to organize over the Plains and reaches northern Missouri during Wednesday morning. A pattern of snow develops ahead of the system and across the Ohio valley before moving into Lower Michigan and first reaching the DTW area around sunrise. The snow quickly spreads northward during the morning resulting in at least MVFR restriction in ceiling and visibility. A burst of heavier snow capable of IFR is also expected during mid morning but likely only reaches PTK before shearing eastward. This is followed by a transition to mixed sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle through the afternoon which further strengthens IFR conditions across the region. As low pressure moves into Wisconsin, the associated warm/occluded front moves into Lower Michigan and keeps conditions IFR/LIFR through mid Wednesday evening. Temperature warms above freezing as far north as FNT while barely reaching the freezing mark at MBS during late afternoon which likely maintains a mix of rain or freezing rain before precipitation decreases coverage and intensity around mid Wednesday evening. For DTW... VFR above 5000 ft holds through much of the night while the wind gradually becomes light easterly. Conditions rapidly transition down to MVFR with the onset of snow toward sunrise and then IFR with a burst of heavier snow around mid morning. About 1 inch of normal to wet snow accumulation is expected before a transition to freezing rain/freezing drizzle occurs by late morning. Temperature then rises above freezing mid to late afternoon resulting in just scattered rain showers before ending Wednesday evening. LIFR ceiling and fog is expected to persist from late afternoon through mid Wednesday evening when a cold front brings a gusty wind shift to southwest. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less after 11Z Wed. * High for precip type as snow 12z-16z Wed * High for precip as mix of freezing rain and sleet 16z-20z. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 DISCUSSION... Very strong dynamic response taking shape over the southern tier of the United States this afternoon. Strong right entrance dynamics are strengthening a deep tropospheric warm front that is supporting increasingly widespread heavy rain currently extending from the Arklatex eastward to the Appalachians. Moisture transport into and ascent within the frontal zone will tend to increase tonight as height falls associated with the deep PV anomaly over the Desert Southwest emerge over the Front Range and amplify the low-level response. Snowfall will expand over Iowa, Minnesota, and the eastern Great Plains as the deformation zone matures overnight. The warm conveyor has been forecast to mainly deflect south and east of the area, although the 12z EC did make a slight westward adjustment with slightly higher QPF suggested in the southern segment of the advisory first thing Wednesday morning. Most of the forecast reasoning remains unchanged from last night and this morning`s update. What would typically be a solid WAA type snowfall along this impressive incoming warm front will be compromised early by the surging dry slot which will set the stage for transition to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle as the warm nose surges north. Forecast cross-sections indicate that Wednesday afternoon will be characterized by a strongly stable boundary layer supportive of freezing drizzle courtesy of both large scale ascent and respectable shearwise forcing. In addition, a considerable coverage of conditional instability is noted over the entirety of CWA between the top of the boundary layer and about 600 or 650mb. Spontaneous PV generation by the NAM12 within this layer is a nod toward the convective potential. The general expectation is still for 0.1" or less of ice accretion, however fzra showers are appearing increasingly likely during the afternoon and will support locally higher amounts. Coverage of showers and/or intensity of drizzle will be key concerns going forward. Northern counties were omitted from the advisory due to increased probability of sleet reducing the magnitude of the travel hazard there. There is one item of concern heading into tonight. Widespread convection across the south has been, and will continue to, generate copious amounts of latent heat. Coincidentally, the rapid refresh guidance and the 18z NAM has been trending westward with the higher QPF prior to the arrival of the dry slot. Quick analysis of the 18z NAM output suggests that it is not due to a westward migration of the warm conveyor. Instead, it appears that the warm front may simply be modeled to retain its integrity for slightly longer as it lifts north. The physical reason for this trend is presumably convection-driven backbuilding of the upper jet and attendant right entrance dynamics. The latest RAP guidance exhibits an identical trend, though slightly more aggressive. The afternoon update will feature a slight upward nudge in QPF across the board with another adjustment to QPF 09-15z in the southern portion of the advised area most of which will go into antecedent snowfall. However, the warm column will support plenty of riming and a coincident lowering of snow ratios below 10:1. Lowering of the dry slot will relegate any remnant precip after 03z Wed evening to drizzle or flurries. Breezy with gusts around 25 mph on Thursday as the gradient ramps up with high pressure building to the south, but modest cold advection will limit forcing for any higher end gusts and keep highs elevated in the 30s. Height rises associated with a high pressure and confluent flow aloft with be passing through the region on Friday and result in quiet and dry weather conditions to end the work week. Cold start to the morning with temperatures starting out in the teens to low 20s with the expectation of mostly clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling overnight. Diurnal temperature increase will bring highs into the mid to upper 30s. Main focus for the weekend will be a very strong upper wave tracking out of the Four Corners Region and undergoing strong cyclogenesis as it tracks into the Midwest. This system will lift through the Great Lakes Region with the center of the low pressure tracking northeastward across the Lower Peninsula Saturday night and into southern Ontario by Sunday afternoon. Precipitation in the form of rain will first impact southeast Michigan Saturday afternoon ahead of this system within a region of WWA and isentropic ascent. High temperatures will increase into the 40s for much of the area within this warm sector. Given the track of the low, expect rain to be the dominant precipitation type with the warm sector being driven east throughout the day Sunday. By Sunday late afternoon and early evening, cold air on the back side of the departing low will be ushered into southeast Michigan and bring falling temperatures and a transition to snow into Sunday night. Cold northwesterly off the lakes will keep a chance for lingering snow showers into Monday before high pressure moves in and brings and end to precipitation. MARINE... High pressure will bring quiet weather and light winds the rest of today and tonight. A low pressure system will move across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southeasterly winds will increase Wednesday to 20-25kts with gusts to around 30kts across north half of Lake Huron. Winds will veer to the west by noon Thursday as the low moves off to the east. Winds will continue sustain 20-25kts gusting to around 30kts Thursday before diminishing Thursday night through Saturday. Another system Sunday will bring another round of higher winds. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ075- 076-082-083. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ060>063-068>070. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......BT AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...JVC/AA MARINE.......DRC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will ridge down over the forecast area into Wednesday as a series of low pressure systems moves up from the Gulf. The combination of cold air and abundant moisture will result in an area of wintry precipitation for the mountains and foothills through early Wednesday. The moist pattern will continue well into the weekend until a cold front finally moves through the region and dries things out. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM: Precip rates have tapered off across the northern CWFA as frontogenesis band has shifted northward above the drier airmass. This trend is expected to continue for the very near term. The predominant forcing soon will become upglide atop the strengthening CAD wedge, as 1035-ish mb arctic high pressure settles into southern New England. Thus likely to categorical PoPs return to the area over the next few hrs where not already present in the fcst. The fcst temps produced by day shift so far have performed very well. That fcst leaned heavily on the cold NAM, which has done rather well with diabatically enhanced CAD events throughout the winter. Wet bulb temps from current mesoscale analysis and short-term guidance however remain a bit warmer than the fcst does overnight. The assumption of diabatic cooling still seems wise, so these temps mostly look good. With this update some LAMP temps/dewpts have been blended in for the first few hrs, in order to match obs to the fcst. Combined with updated temp profiles from the RAP, this results in some areas that previously were fcst to get a few hrs of freezing rain now getting mostly sleet instead. The NW NC Piedmont still looks to be on the fence as far as getting more than a trace of ice, but the advisory looks well-placed for now, in light of the intermittent possibility of wintry wx beyond what has already happened. Confidence is high that cold air will be able to lock in near the Blue Ridge, especially in the barrier jet location along and near the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment. In addition to the cooling from the maintenance of the CAD, very strong SE upslope flow at the top of the developing cold dome will both enhance the cooling while providing additional forcing to augment precip rates. In fact, with the frontogenetical forcing shifting north of the forecast area this evening, upslope flow will become the primary source of lift tonight into Wednesday. All that being the case, our confidence in significant ice accretion remains highest in areas along the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment north of I-40, where the warning is currently in place. Other areas of concern will be farther southeast, especially in the upslope areas of Polk/Rutherford mtns, as well as Henderson and Transylvania Counties. I suspect that some locations in these zones will see warning criteria ice, esp along and south/west of the Divide, but confidence is low in heavy ice accretion being widespread enough to warrant an upgrade. Meanwhile, the strength of the SE upslope flow and developing CAD creates a concern that areas along the Blue Ridge in northwest SC and extreme northeast GA will see light icing develop toward daybreak Wed, and Pickens/Oconee Mtns in SC, as well as Rabun County in GA will be added to an advisory. Otherwise, Wed will see gradually diminishing precip chances, with most areas likely warming enough to see just rain/drizzle during the afternoon. Temps will be almost 20 degrees below climo under the influence of mature cold air damming. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Tuesday: Upper jetlet divergence will increase over the mountains Wednesday night, with 500 mb channeled vorticity crossing the region as well, enhancing upward vertical motion over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a surface cold front west of the Appalachians Wednesday night will push east into the mountain chain before laying over into the region through the day on Thursday. The uptick in forcing and deeper moisture along and ahead of the frontal zone will raise the QPF, and the associated hydro threat, starting Wednesday night. It`s quite possible that a Flood Watch will be needed soon, especially for the southwest NC mountains and the northeast Georgia mountains. The narrow zone of deeper moisture around the frontal boundary may well stay parked over the forecast area Thursday. Anticipate some 500+ J/kg sbCAPE values over the lower piemdont southeast of the front, with temperatures throughout being quite difficult to pin down given uncertainty over the frontal position. Anticipate some very modest height rises over the southeast Thursday night through Friday. The strongest upper jet energy continues to wrap around to the north and west of the region for most of late Thursday through Friday. However, low level southwest flow refocuses once again over the mountains through Friday while upglide fans out to the east along a baroclinic zone. This will cause the hydro threat to either persist or return through the period. Although 1032 mb high pressure will set up to the north, low level temperatures do not look quite cold enough to support mixed ptypes at present, so will keep the robust PoPs all associated with liquid rain for now. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday: A southern stream closed low will move from the four corners region of the desert southwest to the southern plains Friday night through Saturday, before lifting over the Great Lakes on Sunday. This will batter down heights across the southeast over the weekend. Low-level southwesterly flow will strengthen Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, and it`s good bet that hydro problems will persist and develop through a good chunk of the weekend. There is good consensus on a cold fropa from the west on Sunday morning. This timing will be unfavorable for much instability along the passing front, keeping any thunder in check. Upper flow then becomes more zonal late Sunday through Monday. Any shot of shallow northwest flow moisture into the NC mountains Sunday night behind the departing cold front will be very short-lived. Mid to upper flow backs Monday night through Tuesday, with weak shortwaves moving from the western Gulf coast to the southern Appalachians. The GFS holds off on upglide moisture returning across the southeast until Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF brings moisture back a bit faster late Monday night. Will feature a consensus of increasing PoPs for rain on Tuesday. Max temps some 10 degrees above climo on Sunday will fall back below climo by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: The primary forcing for precip at the start of the TAF period is a band of midlevel frontogenesis extending across NC and northern upstate SC. This forcing is occurring over a cold sfc high centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cold-air damming is beginning to take shape as a result of precip falling into this dry airmass. Mostly RA is present over the region, but within some of the heavier pockets, PL or even SN is mixing in. Precip rates will diminish to some degree as the frontogenesis band moves further north and also weakens. Cigs are mainly VFR with the forcing being elevated, but as nocturnal cooling occurs in the PBL and as isentropic upglide over the wedge takes over as the primary forcing, IFR cigs will develop overnight. Have kept cig trends closer to the more pessimistic MAV/MET, since LAMP and HRRR aren`t reflecting enough of the CAD`s effect. Periods of IFR vsby may occur during heavier precip. FZRA still looks likely to develop over KAVL as temps cool below freezing via diabatic processes in the CAD wedge, and can`t rule this out at KHKY either--though with lower confidence it is mentioned only in TEMPO there. This threat will come to an end by late Wed morning as temps warm again, as precip rates diminish as warm front effectively moves north. This is expected to worsen vsby, however, as fog settles in. IFR will persist to end of period. Outlook: A series of low pressure systems will continue to move through the region through the end of the week. This will produce precipitation and associated restrictions for long periods of time with each system. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 83% Med 69% High 84% High 80% KGSP Med 78% Med 76% High 86% Med 78% KAVL High 83% Med 73% High 81% High 84% KHKY High 87% High 82% High 82% High 90% KGMU Med 79% Med 78% High 87% Med 78% KAND High 87% Med 69% High 86% Med 78% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ010. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ035>037-048-052-053-056-057-059-063>065-502-504- 506>510. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ033-049- 050-501-503-505. SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for SCZ001>003. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/Wimberley SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
935 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Will continue the winter weather advisory tonight starting at 9 pm, and going til 6 am in southeast IL and through noon on Wed over central IL. Updated the forecast for the light snow chances increasing late this evening, and also having the chance of light freezing rain arriving a bit quicker from the sw during overnight. Much of CWA has been dry so far this evening as mid level cloud deck as been gradually lowering in the 5-10k ft range. During past 30-60 minutes finally has some very light snow develop in Altona with a dusting, while flurries at weather office in Lincoln started around 9 pm. Radar mosaic and surface obs show brunt of precipitation along and south of a St Louis to Bloomington, IN line, just south of Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties. Temps were 32-35F along and south of I-70, so mixed precipitation over southern IL with rain, snow and light freezing rain being reported south of CWA. Temps were 30-32F over central IL north of I-70 and holding nearly steady or dropping about a degree this evening with an increasing easterly wind 10-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph. Latest hi-resolution models show one band of light snow developing over northern CWA late this evening mainly along and north of a Canton to Bloomington line. The larger area of mixed pcpn over southern IL is forecast to spread northward across southern half of CWA by midnight and overspread northern CWA early overnight. Much of central IL will start as light snow, with mixed pcpn in southeast IL, including snow, rain and freezing rain. The mixed pcpn including chance of freezing rain to spread northward across central IL during overnight, reaching northern CWA late tonight. Temps in southeast IL forecast to drop to near or just below freezing for a few hours, then rise back above freezing late tonight. Northern CWA has lows in upper 20s overnight, then rising above freezing by late Wed morning. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches over much of CWA overnight, will ice accumulations around a tenth inch northern/nw CWA and just a light glaze in southeast IL until late tonight when temps rise back into the mid 30s with ESE winds. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 A fast-moving winter storm system will affect central and southeast Illinois tonight and Wednesday. A deep upper level trough centered on the Rockies this afternoon will become negatively tilted tonight as surface cyclogenesis occurs over Nebraska. That low is forecast to track through Iowa on Wednesday and eventually into NW Wisconsin by Wednesday evening. During that time, a 150KT 300MB jet across the southern Great Lakes will create upper level divergence over Illinois, in the right entrance region. At the same time, another lobe of the 300mb jet is projected to intensify across Missouri, further aiding in forcing for upward vertical motion. Southerly 850MB winds will intensify tonight into the 40-50KT range, becoming a major player in the moisture and heat transport into the system. The combination of those features will work to produce widespread snow across our southern counties early this evening. Meso-scale models continue to indicate a rogue band of waa farther north of the main precip shield as it advances into southern Illinois late this afternoon. It looks to affect areas along I-72 and north through I-74 between 6pm and 9 pm. That band of snow could even contain a brief period of freezing rain, per the latest HRRR and RAP models. Have sped up the northward expansion of PoPs as a result, but did not introduce freezing rain that far north that early in the event, as the warm nose will not have reached a sufficient warmth in that area to produce freezing rain, according to forecast soundings. Will have to watch that closely, as freezing rain falling on dry cold ground could cause a sheet of ice to develop before snow accumulates. NAM3K/NAM12 guidance are outliers with moderately heavy snow in our southeast counties south of I-70, while all other models continue with minor snow amounts in that area this evening before precip changes through freezing rain to rain. However, have increased snow amounts in the southeast slightly to account for the NAMs persistence in keeping those higher snow totals in the south for several days now. High QPF and nearly convective omega in the southeast are also factors that support the potential for a quick burst of a couple inches of snow in those southern counties. Thunderstorms are already active in Arkansas, and are poised to surge into SE Illinois late tonight. Instability projections show 80-100 J/kg of MUCAPE into Lawrence county from 09z-12z tonight (3am-6am). So a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out. Snowfall for areas north of I-70 looks similar to our previous forecasts, with a surge of light to moderate snow northward this evening and continuing after midnight. Snow amounts were generally kept in the 1 to 2 inch range through Wed morning. Snow could linger the longest in Knox and Stark counties, closer to the colder air mass. As the 850mb LLJ shifts from a SE direction to the south after midnight, the warm nose will advance quickly into central IL from SW to NE, affecting Jacksonville to Springfield initially. All portions of our forecast area will eventually have the potential to see icing from freezing rain, with the highest amounts along and NW of the Illinois river, where 0.10" to 0.15" of ice will be possible. The duration of the freezing rain portion of the storm still remains in question. However, forecast soundings continue to show the warm layer aloft as a nearly isothermal layer surrounding the freezing line, as surface temps linger near or just below freezing for several hours. If the surface temps warm more quickly, and freezing rain transitions to rain sooner, icing amounts could be diminished. Another fly in the ointment is a potential quicker end to the precip on Wed morning. A dry slot aloft has been consistently forecast to push into Illinois from SW to NE on Wed morning, as early as 12z in Scott Co to Sangamon Co. That will remove ice crystals from feeding the precipitating cloud layer, but drizzle or freezing drizzle could linger much longer than the models show precip occurring. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing Wednesday afternoon all across C and SE IL. So some melting of ice/snow would occur Wed afternoon into early evening. However, low temps Wed night will dip back below freezing, so any lingering moisture on untreated surfaces will refreeze. The end result in our messaging has been no change to the Winter Weather Advisory timing, and wintry travel impacts are likely across our entire forecast area over the next 18 to 24 hours. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 A dry period is forecast from Wed night through Friday, as a warming trend develops. Some light rain showers are forecast for Saturday, as a strong low pressure system develops in western OK Sat morning and advances quickly toward lower Michigan by Sunday morning. A cold front will get dragged across Illinois during that time, with strong jets at the lower and upper levels creating the potential for severe storms late Saturday afternoon and evening in our SE counties, mainly S of I-70. SPC continues to indicate that time frame for severe weather potential in the Day 5 outlook. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes also continue to be the primary hazards. Highs on Saturday could climb near 60 in our SE counties, with dewpoints into the mid 50s, which would definitely support strong storms this time of year. A brief period of freezing rain could also be a part of that system, mainly NW of the Illinois river late Friday night into Sat morning. As that low pressure system departs to the NE on Sunday, rain could change to snow for a time as colder air returns, before precip ends by Noon on Sunday. No significant snow or ice accums are expected from that system, with current model solutions. A brief dry and cooler period is expected for Monday, but another low pressure system is expected to shift from the Plains toward Illinois on Tuesday, bringing rain and snow chances back to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 VFR conditions currently across the central IL airports will overcast mid level clouds around 10k ft. Will see possible MVFR ceilings of 2-3k ft at times this evening, with a band of light snow spreading in from the sw during mid to late evening from 03-06Z. IFR conditions to develop during overnight as light snow mixed with and eventually changes to light freezing rain with vsbys getting as low as 1-2 miles and ceilings dropping below 1k ft during overnight. Surface temps will rise above freezing toward dawn at DEC and SPI and by mid morning at PIA and BMI with light freezing rain changing to light rain/drizzle. Ceilings below 1k ft Wed morning to rise to 1-1.5k ft by late afternoon. East winds 10-15 kts could have few gusts 15-20 kts tonight. East winds to veer se around 10 kts Wed morning and then sw during Wed afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ062-063- 066>068-071>073. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
831 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the Gulf Coast States tonight will track northeast across the Carolinas by Thursday morning. Moisture associated with this system will bring a swath of significant wintry weather to the area tonight into Wednesday evening. Our weather pattern will remain on the wet side for the remainder of the week into the weekend as a series of fronts and low pressure systems track through the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 825 PM EST Tuesday... Radar showing precipitation slowly making its way northeast into the area this evening but hampered so far by dry air aloft which remains in the 85h-7h layer per evening RNK raob. Latest short term models show this finally being overcome across western/southwestern Virginia by midnight and over points to the northeast shortly thereafter. However models disagree a bit on just how long the ptype will remain snow given a slower to evolve event this evening. Latest HRRR suggests that much of the column will become isothermal espcly along the I-81 corridor as lift increases and is able to overcome the warm nose that looks to actually be above the 85h layer overnight. This scenario with a higher level warm nose in the past has supported snow longer then more sleet per a deeper lower layer below freezing after the initial snowfall. Moisture layer finally looks to shallow out allowing precip to become more liquid per loss of crystals late tonight or early Wednesday as the axis of forcing lifts north. This in conjunction with the HRRR showing more banding after midnight as the warm front aloft edges north supports bumping up totals a bit in a strip from BCB to ROA to LYH and points northeast where deeper colder air will reside longer. Otherwise only some minor tweaks to slow down pops a bit with all of the area bumping to categorical pops overnight. Small changes to bump up lows a degree or two in spots but overall upper 20s/lower 30s. Previous discussion as of 240 PM EST Tuesday... Regional/national radar shows band of precipitation extending from south of I-40 in wester/central NC west across the TN Valley into Arkansas. This area of precip is making inroads toward the NC mountains/foothills. However, ground truth reveals most of the precip is evaporating in NC or barely reaching the ground. As is the case with dry airmass and increasing moisture transport will be a battle into seeing precip reach the ground but mountains/higher ridges will see snow/rain by dusk in NC then moving northward through the evening as isentropic lift maximizes. Best frontogenetical forcing/lift along band will reach our southern CWA this evening and exits to the north overnight. Think along this axis will be when precip falls the heaviest, and could see some mesoscale banding of sleet/snow which may bring a quick 1 to 2 inches before precip starts to swing toward freezing rain. This is more likely in the foothills/mountains. At the moment our current headlines look good. May see less wintry precip in the Mountain Empire given decent inverted trough with 8h temps around +2 to +3 and as wedge strengthens this evening, southeast flow in the low level increases which will create a downslope warming effect toward far SW VA. So places like Saltville/Richlands/Chilhowie may see barely a dusting if any with snow/sleet with more potential for trace to light icing. Meanwhile still looks like a solid 1 to 2 tenths of ice over most of the forecast area with potential for a third of an inch of ice across the Greenbrier Valley into the Alleghanys. This area is also the last to switch from snow/sleet to freezing rain late tonight into early Wed, so snow/sleet amounts will total 3 to 6 inches here. Further south most will see less than 2 inches of snow/sleet, with little to none south of the Roanoke River in the piedmont south to NC. As we head through the day Wednesday models continue showing warm nose increasing and eventually the low levels warm enough to change freezing rain to rain from southwest to northeast, but will still see sub-freezing temps in the wedge keep freezing rain past dusk from the Roanoke/Floyd line northward into the Shenandoah Valley to Lynchburg/Buckingham and Greenbrier. As far as heavy rain threat, will see greatest rainfall west of our area, so at this time flooding threat is low. Models do show a lull in the precip fields behind the best banding/isentropic lift pushing in from south to north Wednesday, so may see transition to freezing drizzle/drizzle. Temps tonight to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, then hold steady or slowly rise in the wedge Wednesday to the lower to mid 30s while the far southwest VA area warms to the mid 40s with break in the precip. Southeast winds will still be gusty across far southern WV into the Mountain Empire around 35 mph, so this will still be mentioned in the winter weather headlines. Confidence is high for winter weather impacts, but lower on snow/sleet amounts, and medium to high for ice amounts. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday... Winter storm warnings and advisories continue into Wednesday night. A cold front approaches the region Wednesday evening, ushering in relatively warmer air and converting any frozen precipitation over to a cold rain. Unfortunately, the front will slowly move across the area, depositing another quarter inch or so of rain to an already water-logged ground. This round of rain may push creeks and streams above bankfull if they are not already there. The front is expected to move east of the mountains Thursday morning, then south into North Carolina by noon. Creek and stream levels will begin to recede Thursday, but river flooding will remain a concern into the day Friday, especially along the Roanoke and Dan Rivers. Temperatures Wednesday night are expected to warm from the lower 30s to near 40F Thursday morning. Cold air lags well behind the front Thursday which will help allow temperatures to warm into 50s across the region. High pressure will build in Thursday night as the front slides farther south into the Carolinas. However, dry weather will be brief as a disturbance over the southern Mississippi Valley throws moisture over another high pressure surface wedge. Isentropic lift increases over the area Friday and Friday night producing around a quarter to half of an inch of liquid precipitation. At this time, sounding profiles support an all rain event. If models trend colder, the Greenbrier Valley to the southern Shenandoah Valley could see a light winter mix as temperatures wet-bulb down below freezing through the event. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s north of the VA/NC state line, south around 40F. High temperatures Friday will only warm into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Tuesday... An upper level trough will swing out of the Rockies and over the central Plains on Saturday. A surface low will move quickly into the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Pressure falls over the Ohio Valley will mark the beginning of end for this weekend`s wedge. Until the wedge and moisture are pushed out of the region by a cold front Sunday morning, rain will continue to fall over the area Friday night into Saturday night. Storm total rainfall could be on the order of 1 to 2 inches for this weekend`s event. With very little drying between Wednesday`s and this weekend`s event, flooding of creeks, streams and rivers are again possible. We will know more once we get this first system out of the way. Cold high pressure will allow the area to dry out Sunday through Tuesday. Our next chance for precipitation is expected next Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal Friday night and Saturday, then near normal for the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 600 PM EST Tuesday... VFR early this evening will transition to MVFR from south to north with cigs lowering including arrival of wintry precipitation across the area between 00z/7PM and 06z/1AM. Will see snow at the start on all TAF sites, except mixed with rain at KDAN and possibly KROA/KLYH/KBCB, then shift over after 06z to sleet to freezing rain while cigs/vsbys linger in LIFR to low end MVFR range, but confidence is higher on sub 1K feet cigs. There may be some weakening of the precip after 12z/7AM Wednesday, but still enough low level moisture to keep freezing rain/freezing drizzle around, except changing to rain along/west of a KBKW-KBLF-KMKJ line by afternoon. Guidance has the winds picking up from the southeast in the mountains as a strong low level jet moves into the area after 00Z/7PM. Winds at KBLF may gusts as high as 35 knots overnight. Confidence in the aviation forecast is above average. Extended Aviation Discussion... Wintry precipitation will gradually transition to all rain from south to north by early Wednesday evening as warmer air arrives. Expect widespread sub-VFR conditions through much of the day. A frontal boundary will meander around the region into the start of the weekend, along with several areas of low pressure moving along this boundary. This will keep the potential for rain and sub-VFR conditions across the area through Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ014-017- 018-022-032-033. Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Wednesday night for VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-045>047. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ010>013- 015-016. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for VAZ007- 009. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ043- 044-058-059. NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ001>003- 018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ004>006-020. WV...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ044. Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Wednesday night for WVZ507-508. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/KK/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH/NF/WP