Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/12/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Surface analysis shows one stalled boundary north of the KCLL to
KLFK area which has allowed for a warm sector to develop with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has allowed
for passing showers to move across SE Texas and affect several
terminals. Showers should be short lived but there could be some
brief drops in visibility. Ceilings are expected to drop to
IFR/MVFR levels for KIAH south to the coast. Sea fog should affect
KGLS again but not be much of an issue for KHOU since winds are
more S to SW. Passing showers with lower ceilings/visibility is
expected until 07Z to 12Z when the frontal boundary finally pushes
through the area. The front is now located in the Plains with a
surface low over the Texas Panhandle moving into Oklahoma. HRRR
and other short range guidance have a good handle on this
situation. This means ceilings/visibility will improve quickly
from 09Z to 12Z Tuesday with VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds
will increase from the NNW during the day with gusts near 20 to 25
knots. High pressure builds over Texas allowing winds to decrease
late afternoon tomorrow.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 208 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/...
.DISCUSSION...
There will continue to be rain chances in the forecast for the rest
of the day and overnight ahead of a cold front moves across the area
before sunrise. Cannot rule out more fog development (especially near
the coast/Bays/Gulf waters, some of which could become dense) before
the front moves on through. A couple of cool nights and mild days can
be expected behind the front as high pressure builds into the area.
As the high moves off to the east on Wednesday, look for an increase
in moisture levels and humidities to begin once again as winds come
back around to the southeast and south. Temperatures warm up once
again on Thursday as the onshore winds strengthen in response to
pressure falls in the TX/OK panhandle area, and currently anticipate
little to no rain development in advance/associated with the next
cold front scheduled to move through Southeast Texas on Friday.
Temperatures cool back down over the weekend as high pressure ridges
into the area from the north and northwest. Coastal trough development
looks possible at the end of the weekend and on into early next week
which would help to bring increasing clouds and rain chances as
temperatures remain on the cool/cold side. 42
.MARINE...
Onshore flow will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Sea fog is
expected to re-develop this evening through early morning Tuesday
particularly across the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Fog will
decrease visibilites to below 1 nautical mile, thus, the marine
dense fog advisory will likely be extended through early Tuesday
morning for the nearshore waters as well as expanded to include the
bays. A cold front will push into the coastline by early Tuesday
morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along/ahead of it. Fog is expected to dissipate after the cold front
moves across. Moderate to strong winds and elevated seas expected in
the wake of the frontal passage, therefore, SCEC and SCA flags will
likely be in effect for the Gulf waters Tuesday morning through
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Onshore flow is forecast to return
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model guidance shows another cold front
moving into the coastal waters Friday and could result in another
surge of winds along with elevated seas. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 62 37 65 52 / 30 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 54 65 40 66 54 / 60 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 64 50 62 58 / 60 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
912 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push north bringing a big warm up Tuesday.
Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will precede the cold
front Tuesday evening. Dry high pressure will prevail Wednesday
into Thursday. A warm front will lift north of area by Friday,
followed by Showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of a
cold front late Friday, with drier air spreading into the
Carolinas next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Monday...Visibilities are falling below 1-2 miles
across a large portion of the Pee Dee region in South Carolina.
Model trends from the HRRR and rapid-update statistical guidance
(GFS LAMP) indicates visibilities should continue to fall,
therefore I have issued a Dense Fog Advisory from Georgetown
northward to Lumberton and west across I-95. Cloud ceilings are
down to 200 feet across much of this region, indicating only a
very slight increase in boundary layer relative humidity will be
needed to bring this stratus deck down to the ground.
Visibilities have remained higher closer to the coast, and the
bulk of overnight model guidance shows visibilities remaining in
the 1/2 to 3 mile range here.
Rain has been a bit slower than expected to clear the Cape Fear
area. Based on the latest movement these patches of light rain
should move out of the Wrightsville Beach-Surf City area around
midnight. Only minor tweaks were made to winds and temperatures
as the front should remain well to our south overnight.
Discussion from 630 PM follows...
The front never made it through the area today, and in fact has
retreated a good 80 miles offshore this afternoon. The front
doesn`t come onshore until somewhere south of Savannah where
east/northeast winds veer to the south. The frontal inversion
across our area is filled with moisture, and cloud ceilings are
falling to only a couple hundred feet off the ground. Fog has
already developed at the Florence airport, and this should be
joined by most other locations as the night goes on. We could be
issuing Dense Fog Advisories at some point later this evening
if visibilities appear they will remain at or below 1/4 mile.
Moisture isn`t particularly deep, and the only area of
relatively deep moisture (10kft, around 700 mb) should exit the
Cape Fear region before 9 PM taking the last of the measurable
rainfall with it. Low stratus could be thick enough (1500 feet)
for some drizzle to develop overnight but with minimal potential
for measurable amounts to fall.
Changes with this update include adjusting wind directions and
temperatures slightly to favor a later warm front arrival
Tuesday morning, dropping overnight PoPs to 10-20 percent, and
adding fog for the overnight period. Discussion from 300 PM
follows...
Light rains on the cool side of nearly stalled frontal boundary
to lift out to the northeast this evening with a weak
shortwave. Copious low level moisture remains even as there is
some mid level drying and overnight soundings supportive of fog,
stratus, and drizzle. Diurnal ranges will be small save for the
immediate coast which got a little closer to the warm side of
the boundary; most locales seeing lows in the mid to upper 40s
and a few low 50s far southern zones. West of I95 these lows may
come early followed by rising temperatures as the surface front
lifts northward.
This boundary will take the low level moisture with it
and sky cover will decrease slightly Tuesday bolstering the change
in airmass for a significantly warmer afternoon with highs in the
mid 70s. Dewpoints surge into the 60s Tuesday afternoon favoring sea
fog but there is some question regarding whether or not airmass
residence times/trajectories will be long enough. A line of showers
possibly containing a few cells deep enough for the stray lightning
bolt is due to enter the area from the west Tuesday evening into
early Tuesday night. There is a small but nonzero chance of some
borderline strong/severe gusts in any heavier convective shower.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Cold front passage will bring a return of
dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure filters
in behind the front. Because the high pressure and associated
air mass will not have originated from the colder north,
temperatures mid week are not expected to be very cold but
rather seasonably mild for middle February. High temperatures
during the afternoon hours should reach the mid to upper 60s
Wednesday and Thursday, which is between 5 and 10 degrees above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The next chances for rain will come as a
result of another cold front that is anticipated to pass through
the Carolinas for Friday and into next weekend. Rain could
potentially be heavy at times and there are some indications of
instability in the atmospheric profile that could lead to some
thunderstorm development. Colder air will filter in behind the
frontal passage for next weekend and bring a return of near
normal temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Scattered
lingering precipitation may be possible for the late weekend
into early next week, but otherwise most locations are looking
to remain dry at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...LIFR ceilings around 300ft currently locked in across
the area. Don`t expect improvement in ceiling heights until
tomorrow morning/early afternoon. A warm front will pass through
the area from the south, and as winds become southerly behind it we
can expect lifting of LIFR clouds to MVFR, possibly VFR, though
timing of this is hard to nail down. Visibility restrictions vary
across the region, with vsby as low as 1 mile at inland terminals
and 4-7 miles along the coast. Forecasting widespread fog overnight,
particularly inland. Visibilities may drop as low as 1/4 mile
overnight into early morning. Have included 2SM visibility at
coastal terminals, but possibility can go lower than that. Light
drizzle forecasted overnight at ILM and inland, before clearing
tomorrow. Rain chances increase again in last couple hours of forecast
period ahead of approaching cold front. Also possibility of sea fog
late in the period that may affect coastal terminals, but confidence
too low at the moment. Variable winds will become southerly by
tomorrow afternoon around 10 kts with higher gusts.
Extended Outlook...Possible IFR/LIFR conditions associated with the
passage of a warm front early Tuesday. The warm front will be
followed by the passage of a cold front early Wed. VFR conditions
will develop Thu as high pressure ridges over the region. A warm
front will push north across the area on FRI with MVFR conditions
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 910 PM Monday...Earlier webcams on the Grand Strand
beaches showed falling visibilities in sea fog. While these
visibilities have not become worse over the past hour, model
guidance indicates there is some risk for dense sea fog with
visibilities under 1 mile along the South Carolina coast.
Interesting, this same guidance shows a possible window of
clearing by daybreak Tuesday before increasing moisture behind
the warm front Tuesday afternoon leads to more dense sea fog
through Tuesday evening. No significant changes were needed to
winds or seas with this mid-evening update. Discussion from 630
PM follows...
The warm front remains well to our south and east with
northerly winds still blowing across the Carolina coastal
waters. Winds should veer northeasterly, then easterly by late
tonight, but may not turn southerly with the warm front until
well into Tuesday morning. Rain across the Cape Fear area should
end around 9 PM, but areas of fog, perhaps even dense fog,
could develop across the coastal waters as moisture continues to
increase. I`d say chances for a dense fog advisory are better
than 50-50 either tonight or Tuesday. Discussion from 300 PM
follows...
Flow will veer tonight especially over southern zones where
frontal boundary will draw closer to the coast. Over northern
waters more pronounced veering to southeasterly and eventually
southwesterly will come on Tuesday. Later Tuesday especially the
southwesterly flow will increase dewpoints across the waters
that will favor the development of fog Tuesday night. However
there is uncertainty as to how dense it will grow since as fog
conditions optimize flow will start turning more offshore in
addition to increasing in speed. Conditions expected to
deteriorate to Advisory levels by the end of the period.
Quiet conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under high
pressure with seas up to 3 feet and west winds up to 10 kts. The
next round of rough seas and increasing winds will be Friday
ahead of an approaching cold front that could bring small craft
advisory conditions heading into the early weekend.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-055-056.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ087.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCK
NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...VAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
Hourly grids were updated based on radar trends blended with HRRR
time lagged pops. This better accounted for the current isolated
to scattered activity over much of the area with pops increasing
through the evening with the first round of rain tonight. There
may be a lull or a period of lower coverage of rain for a few
hours after midnight as a warm front lifts north into the area and
the region gets into the warm sector. However, a line of heavier
showers that could produce some gusty winds and brief heavier rain
may affect the region generally during the morning to early
afternoon on Tuesday along or in advance of the cold front per
some of the recent convective allowing model runs including the
HRRR. The heaviest rain during the remaining period of the Flood
Watches should begin late tonight in the far west and occur during
the morning to midday/early afternoon time frame. Rainfall from
now until this time Tuesday evening should generally range from 1
inch to about 1 and two thirds. Any locations that receive
persistent heavier showers late tonight into Tuesday could
receive locally heavier amounts. In general, the heaviest
rainfall over the next 24 hours should occur along and west of a
line from Wayne County to Elliott County.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
The stories in the short term will be the potential for heavy
rainfall and flooding tonight and Tuesday, A big warm up on
Tuesday, and much colder air and the potential for snow Tuesday
night. The latest model data continues to favor an extended period
of moderate rainfall across the area tonight and most of Tuesday.
Due to already saturated ground and runoff from new rain, the
potential for flooding will exist. The models do differ a bit in
their timing of when the next round of heavy precip will begin and
end. Based on that, decided to go with a middle of the road
solution for the forecast without favoring any one model alot more
than another. The primary change made to the forecast was to slow
down the eastward progression of a surface cold front and its
associated precipitation. This boundary and the abundant low level
moisture in the area will the focal points for rain showers
through Tuesday. The time most favored for widespread rain and
heavy rain will be late tonight and tomorrow, as the surface front
moves across the region. the rain should finally begin to taper
off Tuesday night. A flood watch remains in effect through Tuesday
afternoon to address the potential for flooding across the area.
Once the front passes through, colder air will spill into the area
once again. This will allow for a short period of time Tuesday
into early Wednesday morning when rain will mix with and
eventually change over to snow. At this time it appears that
little if any snow accumulation will occur to warm ground
temperatures. The one concern we might have will be the potential
for any left over liquid to freeze on roadways Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, leading to slick spots forming going into the
morning commute.
Temperatures will run above normal through out the period.
Tonights lows will likely range from the low to mid 40s along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, while lows south of the there
should be mainly in the lower 50s.Highs on Tuesday may rise all
the way into upper 50s and lower 60s, as southerly flow ahead of
an approaching cold front begin to strengthen. In fact, we can
expect winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible
as the front moves through the area. The winds may be even
stronger Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient on the backside
of the passing upper low tightens quite a bit. The winds are
forecast to remain persistently strong and gusty Tuesday night as
well, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible across the area. The
highest gusts and strongest winds would most likely occur in our
western counties, where the terrain is flatter and will not
influence the surface flow nearly as much as it would further
east.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
Model solutions are in reasonably good agreement. Pattern is
relatively zonal through the first 48 to 72 hours of the extended,
becoming more amplified and slightly more progressive by the end of
the period. Shortwave energy may deepen into a cutoff low as it
drops into the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. But models vary
with the strength of this feature...less so with the timing. Overall
pattern aloft returns to southwest flow regime by the end of the
forecast window as a deep trough develops over the western CONUS.
Solutions get interesting towards the end of the extended and just
beyond. It would seem that there are signs that the storm track may
shift south slightly. If this happens we could get into a more
wintry pattern. But there is considerable disagreement between the
ECMWF & Canadian (warmer) and the GFS (colder) with this scenario.
For now will tend to stick closer to the more reliable and warmer
ECMWF, especially with some support form the Canadian. The 12Z FV3
is not completely in yet, but the 06Z run advertised a cooler start
before transitioning to a warmer finish.
Sensible weather features a short window of fair weather from
Wednesday through Thursday. But a late week disturbance brings rain
back into the forecast for Thursday night Friday. We could see some
wintry precipitation Saturday behind the exiting disturbance.
Weather improves temporarily Sunday before another disturbance
brings precipitation back into the area by early next week.
Temperatures should moderate a bit by Friday before dropping back
down below normal again for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
Conditions at the TAF sites varied from below airport mins in the
IFR range at JKL to MVFR at SJS and LIFR at SYM. Some of the south
such as LOZ and SME were in the VFR range. A relative lull in
shower activity was occurring at that time, but the next wave
approaches, an increase in generally lift to moderate rain is
expected through about 6Z. This round should be followed by
another relative lull with lesser coverage for a few hours though
heavier showers should reach the far western locations by 12Z.
These should continue progressing across the area through around
18Z. Locations that are currently VFR should experience a
deterioration to MVFR through 6Z though the rainfall may lead to
some improvement into MVFR for areas currently in the IFR range.
Generally MVFR is expected to prevail until the heavier showers
arrive toward 12Z and after when deterioration to the lower end of
MVFR or even into a brief period of IFR is anticipated. Winds
will generally remain 10 KT or less out of the east to south
through 6Z though the pressure gradient will increase ahead of the
approaching low pressure system between 6 and 12Z and some winds
could reach the 10 to 15 KT range across the southwest and west
and in the higher elevations. In addition, winds aloft will also
be increasing enough that some low level wind shear is possible at
the TAF sites between about 3Z and 15Z. Thereafter, momentum
mixdown should end the low level wind shear threat. Behind a cold
front winds will also become more southwest and then west from
about 15Z through the end of the period at 10 KT to as much as
20KT and wind gusts possibly in the 20 to 30KT range by the end of
the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111.
Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
945 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
No significant changes to the forecast. A warm front just south of I-
64 as of this writing will lift north tonight as low pressure
advances into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A wide band of rain from
Texas to Missouri this evening will persist and likely intensify as
it pushes east. The heaviest rain in southern Indiana and central
Kentucky is expected to fall from the first few hours after midnight
into the early daylight hours Tuesday morning. One to two inches of
rain will be possible, which will likely lead to general flooding.
Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky who are in flood
prone locations should soon complete precautions for any overnight
flooding.
Looking ahead a bit into tomorrow, by mid morning and into the
afternoon rainfall rates will lessen. However, a new threat will
emerge as the storm system deepens and its cold front pushes through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Wind gusts, from the west, of 40 to
45 mph are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. The
added wrinkle here is that the ground will be water-logged, possibly
making it easier for winds of that speed to topple weakly rooted
trees.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2019
...River and Areal Flood Threat Continues...
...Windy Conditions Tuesday Afternoon and Night...
Part of our forecast area actually is seeing a break from rain! That
being the Lake Cumberland area, though low clouds and drizzle likely
are linging. They should see rain chances return this evening and
overnight. The rest of the region likely will see continued light
rain/drizzle the rest of the afternoon and evening. Later tonight,
the upper low currently over the Desert Southwest will move into the
southern Plains and provide for quick height falls over our area. In
response expect a more intense line of rains to sweep through the
entire area. Timing on the latest HRRR is a little slower with this
line...now getting to the I-65 corridor in the 9-11Z time frame and
over to I-75 in the 10-12Z time frame. There may be a rumble or two
of thunder associated with this line, but don`t think the chances
are high enough to mention in the zone forecast. After that band,
there is a hint at an additional band of low topped showers forming
right along the cold front and within the dry slot aloft. Models are
pretty uniform in showing a jet rounding the trough and allowing our
region to be in the right rear quadrant...enhancing lift. As the
afternoon continues, that forcing for showers will drop...but we
cannot rule out just enough moisture aloft for a brief snow shower
our southern IN counties. The threat could get just across the river
in the evening hours. Any snow that falls will melt soon after
falling though, given the wet/warmer grounds.
Speaking of wet grounds, expect additional rainfall totals in the 1-
2 inch range areawide. This much rain falling across all of our
basins will continue the threat for flooding on area rivers. See
current river forecasts for all of the forecast rises. Peak 6-hour
QPF`s are early Tuesday, with the band mentioned above. Totals could
get up to an inch...which if it falls in a more concentrated period
of time will get close to our 1-hour flash flood guidance. Would
appreciate any reports of water flowing over roads coming in for the
early morning hours, to differentiate between areal flood warnings
and flash flood warnings.
The other hazard, which could be a big one, will be windy conditions
Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses the region.
Guidance the past couple of days has been showing low-level
instability and mixing that would help mix some stronger wind gusts
down to the surface. Peak value have come down a little bit, but we
likely will see wind advisories posted at some point tomorrow.
Initial thinking was to see even 45 knot wind gusts across parts of
the area, but again models have backed off to more in the 30-40 knot
range.
.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
We`ll begin to see a brief dry period starting Wednesday as surface
high pressure slides off to our south under broad 500mb ridging.
Temperatures will stay generally mild, with highs increasing as we
head toward the end of the week. Rain chances look to return as soon
as Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Precipitation looks to continue into Friday and possibly linger into
Saturday, depending on how quickly a southern stream wave ejects off
the Plains. Rain may end on a wintry note depending on how long it
lingers on the backside of the low where the colder air resides.
Temperatures will remain cool behind the front over the weekend,
with highs generally staying in the 30s. As we finish out the
weekend and start next week, additional chances for precipitation
will be possible, though model guidance varies with timing and
location of systems. With cold air locked into the region, there
stands the potential we could see wintry precipitation as well.
In addition to potential wintry threats, we will have to keep an eye
on river flooding. Given the already saturated conditions and high
water levels, we could see renewed or prolonged flooding along some
rivers, creeks, and streams.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 645 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
A warm front draped along the length of Kentucky this evening will
move north as its parent low advances from between AMA & OKC to
between ORD & IND. Low clouds and rain will continue through the
night in association with this feature. LLWS will become an issue in
the overnight hours as a low level jet cranks up ahead of the low,
especially at BWG and LEX.
On Tuesday the surface low will deepen as it lifts into Michigan,
pulling its cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky
late morning - mid afternoon. Low clouds and showers will continue
along/ahead of the front, and winds will increase as the gradient
tightens and the system deepens. Winds behind the front, coming in
from the west, will be particularly strong and will gust over 30kt
at times, especially at HNB/SDF/LEX. A few rain/snow showers will be
possible as well, especially at SDF towards evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
KY...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
&&
$$
Update...13
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...DM
Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
531 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019
.AVIATION...
Strong westerly winds to continue the next few hours. As the upper
low responsible continues to pas to the northeast, winds will
continue to turn more northerly as an ensuing cold front pushes
through later this evening. BLDU at KPVW and KLBB is expected to
settle within the next hour. Winds will be calmer by the morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Early this afternoon, a tightly wound upper low continued to roll
southeast from the Albuquerque area complete with some heavy
snow squalls earlier at Clines Corner. Ahead of this low, the
leading edge of height falls and much colder temps aloft were
contributing to scattered showers and some thunderstorms in the
southern TX Panhandle. This activity should continue to develop
eastward within 250 J/kg or so of SBCAPE. Wind-wise, the upper
low and its parent upper trough will finally nudge thick high
clouds out of the southern South Plains in time for strong SW
winds to engulf the region in the next few hours along with
blowing dust. However, the high wind potential has definitely lost
some punch as the strongest wind maxima aloft (75 knots at 500mb
and 45 knots at 700mb) won`t reach our counties along the NM
border until closer to 5 PM. It`s around this time that a Pacific
front will be sweeping east ahead of decent pressure rises. This
front should also aid in focusing some instances of 40+ mph winds
and/or gusts near 60 mph for most of our counties along the NM
border. However, this window for high winds is smaller in size
that we have gone ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for
Lubbock, Lynn, Hale, and Parmer Counties in favor of a Wind
Advisory. Both the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory were
extended one hour until 7 PM as the HRRR and RAP indicate some
strong winds lingering a bit past 6 PM. Additionally, a second and
much shorter round of 30+ mph winds may unfold tonight behind a
Canadian front, mainly across the southeast Panhandle near a 40
knot northerly low level jet and stronger pressure rises. This
threat appears too abbreviated in time and coverage to justify an
additional Wind Advisory for the time being.
A cool surface high dropping southeast over the region tomorrow
will bring a welcome break from windy conditions before the West
Texas wind machine attempts an encore on Thursday. Following some
tolerable SW breezes on Wed and warming conditions within a
developing thermal ridge, Thursday spells a recipe for stronger
west winds and very warm temps given a weak shortwave trough
passing overhead by peak heating. Although we have trended winds
higher into the 20-30 mph range, the ECMWF is faster with a backdoor
cold front which could disrupt these winds for many areas, mainly
northeast of Lubbock. By Thursday night and Friday, uncertainty is
very high as the GFS and ECMWF diverge on a second trough and
whether or not we see a stronger wedge of cold air dump southward
behind the trough. For now, we`ve trended cooler toward the GFS
and NationalBlend, but this could go much colder and much warmer
pending tonight`s model runs. Mean westerly flow continues aloft
through the first half of the weekend ahead of what appears to be
a cold snap early next week as arctic air builds through the
middle of the CONUS, possibly affecting West TX as early as Sun.
Oddly, models agree nicely this many days out regarding a
deepening trough to our west on Sun which could deliver some
wintry precip to parts of the region soon thereafter. Inserted a
diminished version of Superblend PoPs for Monday, but otherwise
this will be given more attention in the days ahead.
FIRE WEATHER...
The biggest change to the fire weather headlines this afternoon
was to cancel the Red Flag Warning for all counties east of Hale,
Lubbock and Lynn. This is due to low level moisture remaining
intact much longer than we originally expected, so even once SW
winds amplify later this afternoon in the wake of high clouds, the
window for sufficient drying is very narrow. Farther west,
critical wildfire conditions are on track as strong W-SW winds
with gusts near 50 mph have already been logged near the NM
border. RFTI values of generally 3 and 4 are likely, but a Pacific
front pushing east through the South Plains this evening should
end the critical wildfire threat as much cooler temperatures
arrive, despite still breezy W winds. Winds will turn NW early
tonight, then more northerly overnight behind a Canadian front.
Fire weather concerns may return on Thursday as even warmer
temperatures develop over much of the region with 20-30 mph
westerly winds.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ027-028-033-
034-039-040.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ035-036-
041-042.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-029>031-
035>037-041>043.
&&
$$
99/99/74
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
558 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a developing mid/upper level
trough into the western plains. A vigorous shortwave was located
over northeast NM with another shrtwv into MT. At the surface,
east winds were increasing through the western Great Lakes between
1033 mb high pressure over nrn Ontario/Quebec and 1002 mb low
pressure over the TX/OK panhandle. Low clouds and a few flurries
persisted over Upper Michigan with low level moisture lingering
under the 3k ft inversion.
Tonight, expect easterly winds to produce a few flurries this
evening over central Upper Michigan. Otherwise, clouds will thicken
late tonight with snow at the leading edge of the storm system
moving into the south toward 12Z.
Tuesday, Although there had been some variability with how the
models have handled the QPF/snow into Upper Michigan, the winter
storm scenario remains largely on track. The plains shortwaves
are expected to phase with a negative tilt mid level trough
through the Upper Mississippi Valley and a deepening sfc low
moving into se lower Michigan. Strong 285k-295 isentropic lift
moves into the region with 2-3 g/Kg available and strong 700-300
mb qvector conv will support moderate to heavy snow spreading from
the southern Upper Michigan into the north by midday. Although
the timing may be slightly slower than previous forecasts, no
adjustments were made to headline starting times. Snowfall
amounts were notched slightly lower, in line with model trends
with overall amounts still generally in the 5 to 9 inch range (QPF
into the 0.45-0.70 inch range) into Tuesday night. Locally higher
amounts are expected north central where upslope/lake enhancement
occurs.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
Widespread precip will be winding down and transitioning to NW wind
LES Tue night. Lake enhanced and upslope precip from initially NE
winds Tue night will lead to the most significant snowfall amounts
over the N-central, with additional amounts of 4-6" in that area.
Elsewhere, Tue night will bring 1-3" in the N-NW wind snow belts,
with an inch or less elsewhere. 1-3" of additional snow is expected
in the NW wind snow belts E of Marquette on Wed, with ice coverage
over the western lake limiting accumulations out W. Winds will remain
gusty into Wed, leading to blowing snow in areas exposed to NE
winds initially, the transitioning to NW wind prone areas.
Through the rest of the long term, conditions are seasonal with
chances for some snow at times, but no significantly impactful
events expected. Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the
single digits and teens.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 558 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
Downstream e-se flow at KIWD should maintain VFR conditions there
until low-level moisture moves in lowering cloud deck to MVFR
late afternoon/evening. Easterly winds should maintain mostly MVFR
conditions through tonight at KCMX with a few flurries. IFR cigs at
KSAW with upslope se winds may lift to lower end MVFR by late
afternoon or evening. Snow moving in with an approaching storm
system from the south will impact KIWD and KSAW with conditions
dropping to IFR in the morning.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 410 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019
A low pres system lifting from the southern Plains tonight into the
Great Lakes region on Tue will likely result in east-northeast gales
to 35 knots on Tue across much of the east half of the lake and
perhaps over the west too. Northwest gales to 35 knots may be
possible on Wed over the east half as well. Otherwise, periods of
heavy freezing spray are expected into next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
MIZ004-005.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday to 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009-084.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for MIZ001-003.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday to 1 AM
EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for MIZ010>013.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for MIZ006-007-014-085.
Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Wednesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-
267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB