Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/12/19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Surface analysis shows one stalled boundary north of the KCLL to KLFK area which has allowed for a warm sector to develop with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has allowed for passing showers to move across SE Texas and affect several terminals. Showers should be short lived but there could be some brief drops in visibility. Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR/MVFR levels for KIAH south to the coast. Sea fog should affect KGLS again but not be much of an issue for KHOU since winds are more S to SW. Passing showers with lower ceilings/visibility is expected until 07Z to 12Z when the frontal boundary finally pushes through the area. The front is now located in the Plains with a surface low over the Texas Panhandle moving into Oklahoma. HRRR and other short range guidance have a good handle on this situation. This means ceilings/visibility will improve quickly from 09Z to 12Z Tuesday with VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds will increase from the NNW during the day with gusts near 20 to 25 knots. High pressure builds over Texas allowing winds to decrease late afternoon tomorrow. Overpeck && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 208 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/... .DISCUSSION... There will continue to be rain chances in the forecast for the rest of the day and overnight ahead of a cold front moves across the area before sunrise. Cannot rule out more fog development (especially near the coast/Bays/Gulf waters, some of which could become dense) before the front moves on through. A couple of cool nights and mild days can be expected behind the front as high pressure builds into the area. As the high moves off to the east on Wednesday, look for an increase in moisture levels and humidities to begin once again as winds come back around to the southeast and south. Temperatures warm up once again on Thursday as the onshore winds strengthen in response to pressure falls in the TX/OK panhandle area, and currently anticipate little to no rain development in advance/associated with the next cold front scheduled to move through Southeast Texas on Friday. Temperatures cool back down over the weekend as high pressure ridges into the area from the north and northwest. Coastal trough development looks possible at the end of the weekend and on into early next week which would help to bring increasing clouds and rain chances as temperatures remain on the cool/cold side. 42 .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Sea fog is expected to re-develop this evening through early morning Tuesday particularly across the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Fog will decrease visibilites to below 1 nautical mile, thus, the marine dense fog advisory will likely be extended through early Tuesday morning for the nearshore waters as well as expanded to include the bays. A cold front will push into the coastline by early Tuesday morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Fog is expected to dissipate after the cold front moves across. Moderate to strong winds and elevated seas expected in the wake of the frontal passage, therefore, SCEC and SCA flags will likely be in effect for the Gulf waters Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon/evening. Onshore flow is forecast to return Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model guidance shows another cold front moving into the coastal waters Friday and could result in another surge of winds along with elevated seas. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 62 37 65 52 / 30 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 54 65 40 66 54 / 60 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 64 50 62 58 / 60 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ AVIATION...Overpeck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
912 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push north bringing a big warm up Tuesday. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will precede the cold front Tuesday evening. Dry high pressure will prevail Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will lift north of area by Friday, followed by Showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of a cold front late Friday, with drier air spreading into the Carolinas next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 910 PM Monday...Visibilities are falling below 1-2 miles across a large portion of the Pee Dee region in South Carolina. Model trends from the HRRR and rapid-update statistical guidance (GFS LAMP) indicates visibilities should continue to fall, therefore I have issued a Dense Fog Advisory from Georgetown northward to Lumberton and west across I-95. Cloud ceilings are down to 200 feet across much of this region, indicating only a very slight increase in boundary layer relative humidity will be needed to bring this stratus deck down to the ground. Visibilities have remained higher closer to the coast, and the bulk of overnight model guidance shows visibilities remaining in the 1/2 to 3 mile range here. Rain has been a bit slower than expected to clear the Cape Fear area. Based on the latest movement these patches of light rain should move out of the Wrightsville Beach-Surf City area around midnight. Only minor tweaks were made to winds and temperatures as the front should remain well to our south overnight. Discussion from 630 PM follows... The front never made it through the area today, and in fact has retreated a good 80 miles offshore this afternoon. The front doesn`t come onshore until somewhere south of Savannah where east/northeast winds veer to the south. The frontal inversion across our area is filled with moisture, and cloud ceilings are falling to only a couple hundred feet off the ground. Fog has already developed at the Florence airport, and this should be joined by most other locations as the night goes on. We could be issuing Dense Fog Advisories at some point later this evening if visibilities appear they will remain at or below 1/4 mile. Moisture isn`t particularly deep, and the only area of relatively deep moisture (10kft, around 700 mb) should exit the Cape Fear region before 9 PM taking the last of the measurable rainfall with it. Low stratus could be thick enough (1500 feet) for some drizzle to develop overnight but with minimal potential for measurable amounts to fall. Changes with this update include adjusting wind directions and temperatures slightly to favor a later warm front arrival Tuesday morning, dropping overnight PoPs to 10-20 percent, and adding fog for the overnight period. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Light rains on the cool side of nearly stalled frontal boundary to lift out to the northeast this evening with a weak shortwave. Copious low level moisture remains even as there is some mid level drying and overnight soundings supportive of fog, stratus, and drizzle. Diurnal ranges will be small save for the immediate coast which got a little closer to the warm side of the boundary; most locales seeing lows in the mid to upper 40s and a few low 50s far southern zones. West of I95 these lows may come early followed by rising temperatures as the surface front lifts northward. This boundary will take the low level moisture with it and sky cover will decrease slightly Tuesday bolstering the change in airmass for a significantly warmer afternoon with highs in the mid 70s. Dewpoints surge into the 60s Tuesday afternoon favoring sea fog but there is some question regarding whether or not airmass residence times/trajectories will be long enough. A line of showers possibly containing a few cells deep enough for the stray lightning bolt is due to enter the area from the west Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. There is a small but nonzero chance of some borderline strong/severe gusts in any heavier convective shower. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Cold front passage will bring a return of dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure filters in behind the front. Because the high pressure and associated air mass will not have originated from the colder north, temperatures mid week are not expected to be very cold but rather seasonably mild for middle February. High temperatures during the afternoon hours should reach the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday, which is between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The next chances for rain will come as a result of another cold front that is anticipated to pass through the Carolinas for Friday and into next weekend. Rain could potentially be heavy at times and there are some indications of instability in the atmospheric profile that could lead to some thunderstorm development. Colder air will filter in behind the frontal passage for next weekend and bring a return of near normal temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Scattered lingering precipitation may be possible for the late weekend into early next week, but otherwise most locations are looking to remain dry at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...LIFR ceilings around 300ft currently locked in across the area. Don`t expect improvement in ceiling heights until tomorrow morning/early afternoon. A warm front will pass through the area from the south, and as winds become southerly behind it we can expect lifting of LIFR clouds to MVFR, possibly VFR, though timing of this is hard to nail down. Visibility restrictions vary across the region, with vsby as low as 1 mile at inland terminals and 4-7 miles along the coast. Forecasting widespread fog overnight, particularly inland. Visibilities may drop as low as 1/4 mile overnight into early morning. Have included 2SM visibility at coastal terminals, but possibility can go lower than that. Light drizzle forecasted overnight at ILM and inland, before clearing tomorrow. Rain chances increase again in last couple hours of forecast period ahead of approaching cold front. Also possibility of sea fog late in the period that may affect coastal terminals, but confidence too low at the moment. Variable winds will become southerly by tomorrow afternoon around 10 kts with higher gusts. Extended Outlook...Possible IFR/LIFR conditions associated with the passage of a warm front early Tuesday. The warm front will be followed by the passage of a cold front early Wed. VFR conditions will develop Thu as high pressure ridges over the region. A warm front will push north across the area on FRI with MVFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... As of 910 PM Monday...Earlier webcams on the Grand Strand beaches showed falling visibilities in sea fog. While these visibilities have not become worse over the past hour, model guidance indicates there is some risk for dense sea fog with visibilities under 1 mile along the South Carolina coast. Interesting, this same guidance shows a possible window of clearing by daybreak Tuesday before increasing moisture behind the warm front Tuesday afternoon leads to more dense sea fog through Tuesday evening. No significant changes were needed to winds or seas with this mid-evening update. Discussion from 630 PM follows... The warm front remains well to our south and east with northerly winds still blowing across the Carolina coastal waters. Winds should veer northeasterly, then easterly by late tonight, but may not turn southerly with the warm front until well into Tuesday morning. Rain across the Cape Fear area should end around 9 PM, but areas of fog, perhaps even dense fog, could develop across the coastal waters as moisture continues to increase. I`d say chances for a dense fog advisory are better than 50-50 either tonight or Tuesday. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Flow will veer tonight especially over southern zones where frontal boundary will draw closer to the coast. Over northern waters more pronounced veering to southeasterly and eventually southwesterly will come on Tuesday. Later Tuesday especially the southwesterly flow will increase dewpoints across the waters that will favor the development of fog Tuesday night. However there is uncertainty as to how dense it will grow since as fog conditions optimize flow will start turning more offshore in addition to increasing in speed. Conditions expected to deteriorate to Advisory levels by the end of the period. Quiet conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure with seas up to 3 feet and west winds up to 10 kts. The next round of rough seas and increasing winds will be Friday ahead of an approaching cold front that could bring small craft advisory conditions heading into the early weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-056. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ087. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCK NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB SHORT TERM...MCK LONG TERM...MCK AVIATION...VAO
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 Hourly grids were updated based on radar trends blended with HRRR time lagged pops. This better accounted for the current isolated to scattered activity over much of the area with pops increasing through the evening with the first round of rain tonight. There may be a lull or a period of lower coverage of rain for a few hours after midnight as a warm front lifts north into the area and the region gets into the warm sector. However, a line of heavier showers that could produce some gusty winds and brief heavier rain may affect the region generally during the morning to early afternoon on Tuesday along or in advance of the cold front per some of the recent convective allowing model runs including the HRRR. The heaviest rain during the remaining period of the Flood Watches should begin late tonight in the far west and occur during the morning to midday/early afternoon time frame. Rainfall from now until this time Tuesday evening should generally range from 1 inch to about 1 and two thirds. Any locations that receive persistent heavier showers late tonight into Tuesday could receive locally heavier amounts. In general, the heaviest rainfall over the next 24 hours should occur along and west of a line from Wayne County to Elliott County. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 The stories in the short term will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding tonight and Tuesday, A big warm up on Tuesday, and much colder air and the potential for snow Tuesday night. The latest model data continues to favor an extended period of moderate rainfall across the area tonight and most of Tuesday. Due to already saturated ground and runoff from new rain, the potential for flooding will exist. The models do differ a bit in their timing of when the next round of heavy precip will begin and end. Based on that, decided to go with a middle of the road solution for the forecast without favoring any one model alot more than another. The primary change made to the forecast was to slow down the eastward progression of a surface cold front and its associated precipitation. This boundary and the abundant low level moisture in the area will the focal points for rain showers through Tuesday. The time most favored for widespread rain and heavy rain will be late tonight and tomorrow, as the surface front moves across the region. the rain should finally begin to taper off Tuesday night. A flood watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon to address the potential for flooding across the area. Once the front passes through, colder air will spill into the area once again. This will allow for a short period of time Tuesday into early Wednesday morning when rain will mix with and eventually change over to snow. At this time it appears that little if any snow accumulation will occur to warm ground temperatures. The one concern we might have will be the potential for any left over liquid to freeze on roadways Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, leading to slick spots forming going into the morning commute. Temperatures will run above normal through out the period. Tonights lows will likely range from the low to mid 40s along and north of the Mountain Parkway, while lows south of the there should be mainly in the lower 50s.Highs on Tuesday may rise all the way into upper 50s and lower 60s, as southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front begin to strengthen. In fact, we can expect winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible as the front moves through the area. The winds may be even stronger Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient on the backside of the passing upper low tightens quite a bit. The winds are forecast to remain persistently strong and gusty Tuesday night as well, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible across the area. The highest gusts and strongest winds would most likely occur in our western counties, where the terrain is flatter and will not influence the surface flow nearly as much as it would further east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 Model solutions are in reasonably good agreement. Pattern is relatively zonal through the first 48 to 72 hours of the extended, becoming more amplified and slightly more progressive by the end of the period. Shortwave energy may deepen into a cutoff low as it drops into the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. But models vary with the strength of this feature...less so with the timing. Overall pattern aloft returns to southwest flow regime by the end of the forecast window as a deep trough develops over the western CONUS. Solutions get interesting towards the end of the extended and just beyond. It would seem that there are signs that the storm track may shift south slightly. If this happens we could get into a more wintry pattern. But there is considerable disagreement between the ECMWF & Canadian (warmer) and the GFS (colder) with this scenario. For now will tend to stick closer to the more reliable and warmer ECMWF, especially with some support form the Canadian. The 12Z FV3 is not completely in yet, but the 06Z run advertised a cooler start before transitioning to a warmer finish. Sensible weather features a short window of fair weather from Wednesday through Thursday. But a late week disturbance brings rain back into the forecast for Thursday night Friday. We could see some wintry precipitation Saturday behind the exiting disturbance. Weather improves temporarily Sunday before another disturbance brings precipitation back into the area by early next week. Temperatures should moderate a bit by Friday before dropping back down below normal again for the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 Conditions at the TAF sites varied from below airport mins in the IFR range at JKL to MVFR at SJS and LIFR at SYM. Some of the south such as LOZ and SME were in the VFR range. A relative lull in shower activity was occurring at that time, but the next wave approaches, an increase in generally lift to moderate rain is expected through about 6Z. This round should be followed by another relative lull with lesser coverage for a few hours though heavier showers should reach the far western locations by 12Z. These should continue progressing across the area through around 18Z. Locations that are currently VFR should experience a deterioration to MVFR through 6Z though the rainfall may lead to some improvement into MVFR for areas currently in the IFR range. Generally MVFR is expected to prevail until the heavier showers arrive toward 12Z and after when deterioration to the lower end of MVFR or even into a brief period of IFR is anticipated. Winds will generally remain 10 KT or less out of the east to south through 6Z though the pressure gradient will increase ahead of the approaching low pressure system between 6 and 12Z and some winds could reach the 10 to 15 KT range across the southwest and west and in the higher elevations. In addition, winds aloft will also be increasing enough that some low level wind shear is possible at the TAF sites between about 3Z and 15Z. Thereafter, momentum mixdown should end the low level wind shear threat. Behind a cold front winds will also become more southwest and then west from about 15Z through the end of the period at 10 KT to as much as 20KT and wind gusts possibly in the 20 to 30KT range by the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111. Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
945 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .Forecast Update... Issued at 945 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 No significant changes to the forecast. A warm front just south of I- 64 as of this writing will lift north tonight as low pressure advances into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A wide band of rain from Texas to Missouri this evening will persist and likely intensify as it pushes east. The heaviest rain in southern Indiana and central Kentucky is expected to fall from the first few hours after midnight into the early daylight hours Tuesday morning. One to two inches of rain will be possible, which will likely lead to general flooding. Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky who are in flood prone locations should soon complete precautions for any overnight flooding. Looking ahead a bit into tomorrow, by mid morning and into the afternoon rainfall rates will lessen. However, a new threat will emerge as the storm system deepens and its cold front pushes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Wind gusts, from the west, of 40 to 45 mph are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. The added wrinkle here is that the ground will be water-logged, possibly making it easier for winds of that speed to topple weakly rooted trees. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2019 ...River and Areal Flood Threat Continues... ...Windy Conditions Tuesday Afternoon and Night... Part of our forecast area actually is seeing a break from rain! That being the Lake Cumberland area, though low clouds and drizzle likely are linging. They should see rain chances return this evening and overnight. The rest of the region likely will see continued light rain/drizzle the rest of the afternoon and evening. Later tonight, the upper low currently over the Desert Southwest will move into the southern Plains and provide for quick height falls over our area. In response expect a more intense line of rains to sweep through the entire area. Timing on the latest HRRR is a little slower with this getting to the I-65 corridor in the 9-11Z time frame and over to I-75 in the 10-12Z time frame. There may be a rumble or two of thunder associated with this line, but don`t think the chances are high enough to mention in the zone forecast. After that band, there is a hint at an additional band of low topped showers forming right along the cold front and within the dry slot aloft. Models are pretty uniform in showing a jet rounding the trough and allowing our region to be in the right rear quadrant...enhancing lift. As the afternoon continues, that forcing for showers will drop...but we cannot rule out just enough moisture aloft for a brief snow shower our southern IN counties. The threat could get just across the river in the evening hours. Any snow that falls will melt soon after falling though, given the wet/warmer grounds. Speaking of wet grounds, expect additional rainfall totals in the 1- 2 inch range areawide. This much rain falling across all of our basins will continue the threat for flooding on area rivers. See current river forecasts for all of the forecast rises. Peak 6-hour QPF`s are early Tuesday, with the band mentioned above. Totals could get up to an inch...which if it falls in a more concentrated period of time will get close to our 1-hour flash flood guidance. Would appreciate any reports of water flowing over roads coming in for the early morning hours, to differentiate between areal flood warnings and flash flood warnings. The other hazard, which could be a big one, will be windy conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses the region. Guidance the past couple of days has been showing low-level instability and mixing that would help mix some stronger wind gusts down to the surface. Peak value have come down a little bit, but we likely will see wind advisories posted at some point tomorrow. Initial thinking was to see even 45 knot wind gusts across parts of the area, but again models have backed off to more in the 30-40 knot range. .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 220 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 We`ll begin to see a brief dry period starting Wednesday as surface high pressure slides off to our south under broad 500mb ridging. Temperatures will stay generally mild, with highs increasing as we head toward the end of the week. Rain chances look to return as soon as Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west. Precipitation looks to continue into Friday and possibly linger into Saturday, depending on how quickly a southern stream wave ejects off the Plains. Rain may end on a wintry note depending on how long it lingers on the backside of the low where the colder air resides. Temperatures will remain cool behind the front over the weekend, with highs generally staying in the 30s. As we finish out the weekend and start next week, additional chances for precipitation will be possible, though model guidance varies with timing and location of systems. With cold air locked into the region, there stands the potential we could see wintry precipitation as well. In addition to potential wintry threats, we will have to keep an eye on river flooding. Given the already saturated conditions and high water levels, we could see renewed or prolonged flooding along some rivers, creeks, and streams. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 645 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 A warm front draped along the length of Kentucky this evening will move north as its parent low advances from between AMA & OKC to between ORD & IND. Low clouds and rain will continue through the night in association with this feature. LLWS will become an issue in the overnight hours as a low level jet cranks up ahead of the low, especially at BWG and LEX. On Tuesday the surface low will deepen as it lifts into Michigan, pulling its cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late morning - mid afternoon. Low clouds and showers will continue along/ahead of the front, and winds will increase as the gradient tightens and the system deepens. Winds behind the front, coming in from the west, will be particularly strong and will gust over 30kt at times, especially at HNB/SDF/LEX. A few rain/snow showers will be possible as well, especially at SDF towards evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. KY...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. && $$ Update...13 Short Term...RJS Long Term...DM Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
531 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... Strong westerly winds to continue the next few hours. As the upper low responsible continues to pas to the northeast, winds will continue to turn more northerly as an ensuing cold front pushes through later this evening. BLDU at KPVW and KLBB is expected to settle within the next hour. Winds will be calmer by the morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... Early this afternoon, a tightly wound upper low continued to roll southeast from the Albuquerque area complete with some heavy snow squalls earlier at Clines Corner. Ahead of this low, the leading edge of height falls and much colder temps aloft were contributing to scattered showers and some thunderstorms in the southern TX Panhandle. This activity should continue to develop eastward within 250 J/kg or so of SBCAPE. Wind-wise, the upper low and its parent upper trough will finally nudge thick high clouds out of the southern South Plains in time for strong SW winds to engulf the region in the next few hours along with blowing dust. However, the high wind potential has definitely lost some punch as the strongest wind maxima aloft (75 knots at 500mb and 45 knots at 700mb) won`t reach our counties along the NM border until closer to 5 PM. It`s around this time that a Pacific front will be sweeping east ahead of decent pressure rises. This front should also aid in focusing some instances of 40+ mph winds and/or gusts near 60 mph for most of our counties along the NM border. However, this window for high winds is smaller in size that we have gone ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for Lubbock, Lynn, Hale, and Parmer Counties in favor of a Wind Advisory. Both the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory were extended one hour until 7 PM as the HRRR and RAP indicate some strong winds lingering a bit past 6 PM. Additionally, a second and much shorter round of 30+ mph winds may unfold tonight behind a Canadian front, mainly across the southeast Panhandle near a 40 knot northerly low level jet and stronger pressure rises. This threat appears too abbreviated in time and coverage to justify an additional Wind Advisory for the time being. A cool surface high dropping southeast over the region tomorrow will bring a welcome break from windy conditions before the West Texas wind machine attempts an encore on Thursday. Following some tolerable SW breezes on Wed and warming conditions within a developing thermal ridge, Thursday spells a recipe for stronger west winds and very warm temps given a weak shortwave trough passing overhead by peak heating. Although we have trended winds higher into the 20-30 mph range, the ECMWF is faster with a backdoor cold front which could disrupt these winds for many areas, mainly northeast of Lubbock. By Thursday night and Friday, uncertainty is very high as the GFS and ECMWF diverge on a second trough and whether or not we see a stronger wedge of cold air dump southward behind the trough. For now, we`ve trended cooler toward the GFS and NationalBlend, but this could go much colder and much warmer pending tonight`s model runs. Mean westerly flow continues aloft through the first half of the weekend ahead of what appears to be a cold snap early next week as arctic air builds through the middle of the CONUS, possibly affecting West TX as early as Sun. Oddly, models agree nicely this many days out regarding a deepening trough to our west on Sun which could deliver some wintry precip to parts of the region soon thereafter. Inserted a diminished version of Superblend PoPs for Monday, but otherwise this will be given more attention in the days ahead. FIRE WEATHER... The biggest change to the fire weather headlines this afternoon was to cancel the Red Flag Warning for all counties east of Hale, Lubbock and Lynn. This is due to low level moisture remaining intact much longer than we originally expected, so even once SW winds amplify later this afternoon in the wake of high clouds, the window for sufficient drying is very narrow. Farther west, critical wildfire conditions are on track as strong W-SW winds with gusts near 50 mph have already been logged near the NM border. RFTI values of generally 3 and 4 are likely, but a Pacific front pushing east through the South Plains this evening should end the critical wildfire threat as much cooler temperatures arrive, despite still breezy W winds. Winds will turn NW early tonight, then more northerly overnight behind a Canadian front. Fire weather concerns may return on Thursday as even warmer temperatures develop over much of the region with 20-30 mph westerly winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ027-028-033- 034-039-040. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ035-036- 041-042. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-029>031- 035>037-041>043. && $$ 99/99/74
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
558 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 410 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a developing mid/upper level trough into the western plains. A vigorous shortwave was located over northeast NM with another shrtwv into MT. At the surface, east winds were increasing through the western Great Lakes between 1033 mb high pressure over nrn Ontario/Quebec and 1002 mb low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle. Low clouds and a few flurries persisted over Upper Michigan with low level moisture lingering under the 3k ft inversion. Tonight, expect easterly winds to produce a few flurries this evening over central Upper Michigan. Otherwise, clouds will thicken late tonight with snow at the leading edge of the storm system moving into the south toward 12Z. Tuesday, Although there had been some variability with how the models have handled the QPF/snow into Upper Michigan, the winter storm scenario remains largely on track. The plains shortwaves are expected to phase with a negative tilt mid level trough through the Upper Mississippi Valley and a deepening sfc low moving into se lower Michigan. Strong 285k-295 isentropic lift moves into the region with 2-3 g/Kg available and strong 700-300 mb qvector conv will support moderate to heavy snow spreading from the southern Upper Michigan into the north by midday. Although the timing may be slightly slower than previous forecasts, no adjustments were made to headline starting times. Snowfall amounts were notched slightly lower, in line with model trends with overall amounts still generally in the 5 to 9 inch range (QPF into the 0.45-0.70 inch range) into Tuesday night. Locally higher amounts are expected north central where upslope/lake enhancement occurs. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 329 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 Widespread precip will be winding down and transitioning to NW wind LES Tue night. Lake enhanced and upslope precip from initially NE winds Tue night will lead to the most significant snowfall amounts over the N-central, with additional amounts of 4-6" in that area. Elsewhere, Tue night will bring 1-3" in the N-NW wind snow belts, with an inch or less elsewhere. 1-3" of additional snow is expected in the NW wind snow belts E of Marquette on Wed, with ice coverage over the western lake limiting accumulations out W. Winds will remain gusty into Wed, leading to blowing snow in areas exposed to NE winds initially, the transitioning to NW wind prone areas. Through the rest of the long term, conditions are seasonal with chances for some snow at times, but no significantly impactful events expected. Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 558 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 Downstream e-se flow at KIWD should maintain VFR conditions there until low-level moisture moves in lowering cloud deck to MVFR late afternoon/evening. Easterly winds should maintain mostly MVFR conditions through tonight at KCMX with a few flurries. IFR cigs at KSAW with upslope se winds may lift to lower end MVFR by late afternoon or evening. Snow moving in with an approaching storm system from the south will impact KIWD and KSAW with conditions dropping to IFR in the morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 410 PM EST MON FEB 11 2019 A low pres system lifting from the southern Plains tonight into the Great Lakes region on Tue will likely result in east-northeast gales to 35 knots on Tue across much of the east half of the lake and perhaps over the west too. Northwest gales to 35 knots may be possible on Wed over the east half as well. Otherwise, periods of heavy freezing spray are expected into next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ004-005. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009-084. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ001-003. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for MIZ010>013. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ006-007-014-085. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266- 267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB