Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/22/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
524 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Region remained under cyclonic flow per the latest water vapor
satellite imagery...plus due to strong inversion and time of
year...low stratus deck of clouds continue to rotate around upper
level trough over the eastern United States...per latest visible
satellite imagery.
Main forecast concerns this evening and tonight if when low stratus
deck of clouds erode across the forecast area. The 21.12z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF and hi-resolution models are not handling the low
level moisture trapped under strong inversion. This will have
impacts on sky conditions clearing across the forecast area this
evening. Surface ridge builds into Wisconsin tonight and eventually
erodes the low stratus deck of clouds across the forecast area.
Weak surface front/shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains
states and the Great Lakes Region Saturday. The 21.12z GFS/ECMWF/NAM
show weak forcing and lift in association with the shortwave
trough...plus the bufkit soundings indicate saturation in low
levels. With the weak lift and forcing...confidence not high enough
on introducing any precipitation chances til late afternoon Saturday
across northern portions of forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Focus turns to Sunday into Monday...Upper level becomes west to east
zonal flow across the northern tier United States. With pieces of
energy embedded in the flow and cooler airmass advecting into the
forecast area. There is potential for some light snow or
flurries...mainly across the northern sections of the forecast area.
At this time...have small chances of light snow over this area
Sunday.
Main forecast concerns Monday night through Friday is the storm
system moving into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes Region
Wednesday into Thursday. Next impulse to impact the forecast area
Monday night. The deterministic 21.12z GFS/ECMWF are placing impulse
and lift/forcing slightly further south than previous
runs...providing the best snow chances across parts of northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The deterministic 21.12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
models are in better agreement than the 21.00/06z runs in
placement/movement of surface/upper level features Wednesday into
Thursday. With slight differences in placement/movement...confidence
in the forecast track of the system Wednesday into Friday remains
low. The forecast area is expected to receive precipitation from the
system Wednesday into Thursday...however details of any type of
precipitation and amounts is still uncertain. Stay tuned to the
latest forecast and trends with this system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
A low confidence scenario with respect to cloud trends is expected
into Saturday. A weak ridge of high pressure will spread over the
area tonight. However, satellite and surface obs indicate quite a
bit of stratus extending west into MN. With weak low-level flow
and a stout inversion, confidence in improving conditions is low.
Model guidance has been quite poor with cloud trends, but the RAP
keeps IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight through Saturday as a weak low
pressure system crosses the area. As a result, have trended
towards a more pessimistic forecast but will amend if necessary
should the stratus show signs of erosion overnight. Winds will
remain light through the period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will lift into Canada overnight while a surface
cold front will sweep across the North Country on Saturday.
Occasional showers will persist tonight, which combined with snow
melt will cause some area rivers to reach minor flood stage. A mild
night will turn sharply cold on Saturday with any leftover rain
showers changing to snow showers. A dusting to an inch or two of
snow accumulation is possible, especially over northern Adirondacks
and the mountains of central and northern Vermont. Cooler weather
with minor chances for light snow is expected for early this
upcoming holiday week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 951 PM EST Friday...No real changes as everyting in
quasi-stationary until surface low near KMSS lifts NNE overnight
then a west to east slow progression. No changes to going
forecast. Check hydro section for flood watch and river status.
Previous Evening Discussion...Steadier rain/showers on our west
and east ends of our forecast area, otherwise dry slot across
region. Current forecast appears on track with eastern activity
continuing to diminish but western activity will slowly progress
east after surface low passes to our north and cold front moves
east. Lack of gradient with moist atmosphere and cold ground
has developed patchy/areas of fog and this should prevail
overnight.
Previous Afternoon Discussion...Flood watch continues until 1
PM Saturday for combination of rainfall and snow melt from
eastern Dacks into all of VT. The near term focus continues to
be hydro related and associated impacts from rainfall and
snowmelt. Based on River Forecast Center still anticipating
multiple rivers to reach minor flood stage with a few
approaching moderate. Through early this aftn storm total
rainfall has ranged from 0.60 to 1.50 across our fa which
combined with snow melt has resulted in some rises on rivers.
Expect peak flows overnight tonight into Saturday. Based on
Emergency manager feedback and web cams, the threat for ice jam
related flooding is minimal.
Water vapor shows deep full latitude mid/upper level trof across the
eastern Conus with strong sub-tropical moisture plume advecting into
central/eastern New England. This axis of higher pws and deeper
moisture is slowly shifting east of our fa, as mid/upper level dry
slot moves across northern/central NY. This will impact our region
overnight with steadier/heavier activity becoming more showery.
Given embedded 5h vorts in the southerly flow aloft, along with axis
of 850 to 500mb moisture over central/eastern VT, will continue to
mention cat pops thru 03z...before dry slot arrives. Additional
areas of showers will be possible throughout the night across our
entire fa, but heaviest qpf will be focused over eastern sections.
Expect areas of fog, especially over colder snowpack regions of
eastern/central/northern Vt and parts of the dacks. Temps hold
steady overnight mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, before dropping aft
06z across our western cwa/slv regions.
Well defined commahead on water vapor will lift across our cwa btwn
09-15z Saturday with general redevelopment of precip from west to
east. Have noted some lightning activity upstream and RAP soundings
indicating showalter values of -1 at SLK with cape of 100 to 200
j/kg. Have not included thunder given low confidence, but cannot
completely rule out a rumble or two over northern NY tonight with
fropa. As the deeper mid/upper level moisture arrives, winds will be
shifting to the southwest/west with strong 925mb to 850mb caa
developing. This will cause 850mb temps to rapidly decrease with 0c
line over the dacks by 12z Saturday and thru most of VT by 15z, with
925mb near 0c line over the CPV at this time. Expect a rapid change
to snow showers across the summits of the dacks btwn 09z-12z and 12z-
15z across the central/northern Greens. A period of wet accumulating
snowfall is likely with several inches possible above 2000 feet. A
dusting to a quick inch or so is possible below 2000 feet. Snow
showers quickly become trrn focused by 18z as drier develops on
brisk northwest winds. Temps continue to fall throughout the aftn
with readings in the 20s and 30s by evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 237 PM EST Friday...Quiet weather expected Sunday through
Sunday night with mountain snow showers winding down through
the morning hours. Overall, no real accumulations expected.
We`ll remain cloudy through most of the day, with a few flurries
likely flying around near the high terrain. High temperatures
will be near normal in the mid 20s to around 30 with lows only
falling slightly into the upper teens to low 20s. Winds will
decrease during the day Sunday as high pressure nudges in ahead
of our next shortwave...this shortwave will determine whether
areas of New England see a white Christmas or not.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 237 PM EST Friday...Weak low pressure moving out of the
Great Lakes on Sunday will track east out of Lake Ontario and
east- southeast across southern New England. Compared to 00z/06z
run of model guidance, this track is slightly further south.
Tricky forecast for the northern portions of our CWA with
Burlington area on outer fridges of available moisture. The best
chances for eeking out a white Christmas will be across our
central and southern zones. Overall, looking at slightly less
than to around 1" of snow. Things trend quieter Monday night
through late- week. Near normal temperatures are expected in the
upper 20s to low 30s. A weak shortwave moves through Wednesday
night but with hardly any available moisture, anticipate mainly
increase in cloud cover and no real falling precipitation. Our
attention shifts towards Friday when another mature system
advances north out of the Central Plains. As previously
mentioned, model spread with this system is large so plenty of
time for things to change.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A mix of VFR to LIFR conditions is
expected during fist half of the TAF period. Varying cloud cover
across the CWA will lead to changing conditions with most TAF
sites bouncing from VFR to LIFR as clouds move out and fog
quickly forms. As clouds move back in conditions will improve to
varying degrees. Showers will move back into KMSS after 04Z and
progress westward into VT after 12Z which will keep conditions
around MVFR and IFR though the end of the period.
Expect winds to be light and variable under 10 knots overnight
before becoming south to southwesterly at 10-15 knots with some
gusts across the northern TAF sites of 20-25 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 955 PM EST Friday...Flood watch remains in effect as we
still have some rivers responding to earlier rainfall and
continued snowmelt. We have received some reports of water over
some roads for minor flooding but nothing significant. Pretty
much behaving as earlier anticipated. There has been some ice
that has affected gages but no reported jams as ice still young
and not as thick as it could have been.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Below are record highs for today and tomorrow for selected sites. If
highs for tomorrow are broken, they`ll likely occur in the pre-dawn
hours.
DateKBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
12-21 61|1957 56|1957 49|2012 62|1957 59|1957 55|1957
12-22 57|1990 58|1949 45|1998 63|1949 54|1967 55|1949
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/SLW
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Verasamy
HYDROLOGY...JMG/Neiles
CLIMATE...JMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1052 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drag a cold front through from west to east
early tonight, allowing colder air to move in. As rain ends this
evening, it will turn to snow over the Alleghenies and Laurels. A
weak Alberta Clipper will affect the region around Sunday
night. High pressure should bring mainly fair weather for
Christmas Day into the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Colder air reaching into the central mountains now with rain
changing to snow in the higher elevations. Still a batch of
moderate rainfall to cross my northeastern counties so will keep
Flood Watch going there through midnight. Streams overall are
lowering, but could rise again in these areas.
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Laurels and also
McKean Co. The rain turning to snow on the western edge of the
deformation band might yield an hour or two of 1"/hr rate
snowfall in these loactions, and the Laurels will also have the
typical upslope snow post-front later tonight and early Sat AM.
Have gone with 2-4" in the Laurels but there could be spots on
the ridges and west-facing slopes which get 6" or more by noon
Sat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Accumulating snowfall should be ending over the NW early in the
day, but may linger into early aftn in the Laurels. Totals of
2-4 with higher amounts on the ridgetops. The winds will be
gusty out of the WNW. Best gusts will be over the Laurels. The
snow and ambient temps will not be conducive to generate
blowing snow, though. Maxes will be limited by the good CAA.
Will keep them in the 30s except in the lower Susq where they
sould get into the L40s with a downslope flow and some sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our best chance at a White Christmas appears to be linked to a
fast moving low amplitude shortwave that will be moving through
the region Sunday afternoon into the overnight. It will be pretty
moisture starved and the models show the usual pattern of the
precip favoring western higher elevations, and petering out
rapidly as we move into central and especially eastern portions
of the CWA. But a coating to an inch from central areas west
would be welcome by most given the holiday timing, though travel
issues will need to be monitored. Confidence at this point is
low.
Christmas Day looks chilly with temperatures generally in the
30s, but it should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
There are differences that arise by the Wed-Thu timeframe with
the ECMWF favoring continued mainly dry conditions, and the GFS
showing a warm advection pattern developing with rain by
Thursday. I used a model blend to bring in low chance POPs by
the end of the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will lift north of Pennsylvania this evening, as a
trailing cold front works east across the region. Upsloping
northwest flow will continue to produce ifr/lifr cigs across
the high terrain of the Alleghenies this evening from KBFD south
through KJST. In addition, expect rain to change to snow in
this same area, resulting in reduced vsbys late evening through
around midnight. Further east, expect predominantly mvfr
conditions later this evening, as band of rain moves across the
area.
Expect diminishing precipitation and rising cigs late tonight,
as drier air flows in behind the cold front. However, the entire
area will experience increasingly gusty northwest winds
overnight. Latest HRRR supports frequent gusts between 20-30kts
late tonight, with the highest gusts across the southwest half
of the state.
Residual moisture ascending the Appalachians is likely to
produce lingering mvfr stratocu Saturday from KBFD south through
KJST. Further east, downsloping flow should yield predominantly
vfr conditions. A tight pressure gradient behind departing
storm system will result in gusty west-northwest winds
throughout the day. Model soundings indicate frequent gusts of
25-30kts are likely with diminishing winds after sunset.
.Outlook...
Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. Evening light snow
possible, mainly northern/western Pa.
Mon...AM snow showers/vis reductions possible NW Mtns.
Tue...Evening light snow possible, mainly W Mtns.
Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for PAZ005-024-
033.
Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ037-041-042-046-
051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
933 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Skies have cleared this afternoon for portions of northern
Minnesota while stubborn stratus has held on elsewhere. Winds over
western Minnesota have turned southerly ahead of an approaching
area of low pressure, which will affect the area tonight through
Sunday. The initial shortwave trough will move into northern
Minnesota tonight with precipitation moving into our western zones
overnight. The shortwave will flatten the mid- level ridge by
Saturday morning. A second lobe of vorticity will follow across
the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest by Saturday
afternoon. Light snow is expected from late tonight through
Saturday night and into Sunday as the system stalls over the
region. Look for a dusting up to half an inch of snow over our
southern zones with 1 to 3 inches along the international border.
Some locations along the north shore may pick up 4 inches with
orographic enhancement on easterly winds. Temperatures tonight
will dip into the middle single digits above zero over interior
areas of the Minnesota Arrowhead and the low 20s in central
Minnesota with upper teens and low 20s in northwest Wisconsin.
Highs on Saturday will reach the low 20s in the northeastern
Arrowhead and around 30 degrees in central Minnesota. Lows
Saturday night will be in the upper teens and low 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
A slow moving area of weak low pressure will slide through the
Northland to kick off the long term period. This will bring light
snow and may even accumulate up to 2-4" in portions of the
Northland - mainly near the Canadian Border. This should be a
light and fluffy snow with low snowfall rates. There may be a
period early Sunday morning for enhanced rates as the DGZ moves
favorably overhead in conjunction with a relatively stronger omega
nose, but still not strongly forced.
After this system passes, another weak shortwave crosses on
Christmas for some flurries over the Arrowhead.
The main focus of the long term is the potential for a larger
system on Thursday. With each consecutive run, I am more confident
that the uncertainty with this system is and will remain high.
While the majority of operational models move a surface low
through Iowa and into Lake Michigan, there are a few things that
catch the eye. A strong cold front fires off convection on the
eastern side of this low and will act to deprive moisture from
advecting far northward limiting its availability to create
significant snowfall in the Northland. Models appear to ignore or
highly downplay the sedimentation of the rich plume of moisture
with this convection. A really strong system may overcome this,
but we`re talking a filling 990mb low at worst with geostrophic
forcing that is greatly reduced in this set of guidance. Further
the GFS v3 actually fills the low as it approaches the area. One
thing to watch for is the LLJ is quite strong (65 kt) with this
system which may be enough to overcome the aforementioned
deposition argument. Another interesting feature, is the system
appears to generate a second cold front late Thursday over
Illinois on the GFS v3 which would also act to slow down the
snowfall rates and continue to sap moisture from the system. So,
either way, the best course of action is to remain weather aware
and plan for a strong system somewhere in the Midwest/Great Lakes
area on Thursday as there are certainly indications that one of
the strongest systems of the winter thus far may be on the
horizon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Low stratus continues for portions of the region, particularly
from KBRD east to KDLH and KHYR, stopping just south of KHIB. The
ceilings will once again be the main concern for tonight. The
models generally have been a bit too high on ceiling heights
lately, so trended a bit lower than most of the guidance. The RAP
model appears to be doing the best in handling the low-level
moisture, which is indicating a more widespread moisture return,
so expecting the stratus to expand overnight. Some high level
cirrus clouds will continue to move eastward across the area ahead
of a trough of low pressure that will move through the region
tonight and Saturday, bringing our next chances of snow, with some
light accumulations possible, especially over our northern areas.
The snow with this system should be steady, but light in nature,
through Saturday as the trough will be pretty slow moving.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Weak high pressure will continue to shift eastward across western
Lake Superior overnight, which will lead to light northeasterly
winds. Despite the light winds, wave heights from Chequamegon Bay
to Saxon Harbor in northern Wisconsin will continue to be in a
Small Craft Advisory, with waves between 3 to 5 feet per the wave
height model guidance. We did trim back the end time of the
advisory to coincide with when the waves start to diminish
overnight.
As the high pressure ridge moves eastward, winds will shift from
the east and southeasterly directions, which should lead to
strengthening winds and building waves along the North Shore late
Saturday morning into the afternoon. Another Small Craft Advisory
may be needed, mainly from Silver Bay northeast to Grand Marais,
but the pressure gradient appears to be a bit too weak to support
advisory issuance at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 27 19 25 / 10 50 40 20
INL 10 26 20 24 / 40 80 80 30
BRD 15 31 19 25 / 40 40 10 20
HYR 18 29 20 29 / 10 40 40 20
ASX 20 30 22 31 / 10 30 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...JTS
MARINE...JTS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
818 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
West edge of the low cloud deck has been making slow progress
eastward, though several holes have recently developed in central
and northwest Illinois. GOES-16 night fog imagery shows the
stratus deck extending into South Dakota, though high clouds over
Iowa are obscuring the amount of cloud breaks there. Latest HRRR
ceiling guidance suggests any sort of wholesale clearing of the
stratus will be well after midnight, though the cirrus won`t
provide much of a clearing trend. Will have to watch the low
temperatures, which may be a tad cool given the cloudier trend. In
the meantime, updates have been sent for the cloud trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Low clouds associated with the departing storm system off to our
east continue to make slow progress east with most of the forecast
soundings for tonight suggesting the clouds will gradually decrease
from west to east. Coldest temperatures tonight will be where the
sky remains clear the longest, across the west and northwest, while
clearing not expected to take place until just before dawn over the
far east, as a result, have nudged temperatures up a few degrees
over far east central and southeast IL.
Surface high pressure will shift east into our area on Saturday
bringing a sun-cloud mixture along with above normal temperatures
as we should see afternoon highs range from 40 to 45 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
The surface ridge axis will shift east of the forecast area Saturday
night allowing a return southerly flow to develop. With the south
wind and a bit more clouds, early morning lows will not be as
cold as tonight with most areas dropping into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Models indicate a weak shortwave will track across the
region on Sunday dragging a weak cold front across the area during
the day. Moisture profiles ahead of this system look meager at
best, with some limited moisture noted on soundings as the upper
wave and attendant frontal system shift just to our east later in
the day.
The upper wave and frontal system will shift off to our east by
Sunday night into Monday with rather quiet weather expected thru
Christmas Eve with afternoon temperatures on Monday mostly in the
40s. The next upper wave on Christmas Day is being handled a
little differently than what we saw yesterday at this time with
the better moisture and lift shifted further south near the Ohio
River Valley. Mainly slight chance POPs during the day Christmas
with low chance POPs holding into Christmas night, but confidence
on the rain and snow Tuesday night rather low as the latest ECMWF
taking the bulk of the moisture/precip chances off to our east
by late Tuesday. The 12z ECMWF indicating upper level ridging
building over the central U.S. in response to a deep trof tracking
into the southern Rockies by Wednesday. Model consensus throwing
POPs in every period starting Tuesday night but find that hard to
believe, especially if the upper ridge is as strong as indicated
on the 00z and 12z runs of the ECMWF which would suggest we would
see a break in the rain/snow chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The major storm system forecast to slowly eject out of the southwest
late Wednesday into Thursday bringing our area the best chances for
rain and mild temperatures. Based on the current low track, it
appears a good part of our forecast area will see afternoon
temperatures in the low to mid 50s on Thursday before the cold front
sweeps across the area late Thursday/Thursday night, putting an end
to the rain and cooling temperatures off for Friday, but still
averaging above normal for late December.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018
Expansive cloud deck around 1500 feet covers all of central
Illinois at 23Z, but west edge is just west of the Mississippi
River. AWIPS timing tool and models suggest ceilings should break
out from KPIA-KSPI toward 06Z, KBMI-KDEC toward 08Z and KCMI by
10-11Z. Once this finally occurs, VFR conditions will prevail the
remainder of the forecast period. Northwest winds will trend more
southwest late tonight, as an area of high pressure drifts east
out of central Illinois.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart