Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/19/18

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 738 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

No significant updates at this time. Timing of current highlights
still in tact.  Latest RAP shows the best period of snowfall
appears to be late tonight into Wednesday morning, approximately
09-15z time frame. Although the snow may taper off, strong gusty
winds will produce areas of blow snow and poor visibilities over
the mountain passes into the afternoon. Current highlights in the
mountains look fine, with strong winds developing across the
northeast plains on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

Another warm and dry afternoon across the CWA has lead to the
12th consecutive day of above normal temperatures in Denver. This
quiet weather pattern will be put to an end as a strong jet
stream enters Colorado tonight. This jet stream will have peak
200-300 mb winds of 150 knots and will be positioned to the west
of the northern mountains late tonight and tomorrow morning
meaning that the area will be in the ascent-favored left exit
region. This, combined this with strong upslope winds, will help
create snow especially across the western and northern slopes of
the northern mountains. Since the moist layer is not very deep and
the lapse rates are marginal, amounts should be generally light
to moderate. One of the most difficult parts of this storm to nail
down is determining the snow rates and end time of the snow
during the day Wednesday. The aforementioned jet stream will have
moved over the eastern plains during the day tomorrow leaving the
mountains in the subsident, right exit region of the jet stream.
The typically bullish HRRR produces nearly no snow at all in the
mountains from 18Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday. I disagree with this
solution and have gone with a blend of global models that produce
a trace to 2 inches of snow during this time frame. By the end of
the snowfall from this system, snow amounts will be on the low
end of advisory criteria with 2 to 6 inches expected above 9000
feet with higher amounts on the western and northern slopes. In
addition to the snow, there will be strong winds with gusts up to
70 mph possible meaning blowing snow and reduced visiblities will
be likely. Consequently, there is high confidence in hazardous
travel conditions in this storm and a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for the northern mountains and I-70 corridor mountains
from 11pm tonight through 5pm Wednesday.

The jet streak will also create hazards over the plains. The
subsidence from the jet stream and the strong surface pressure
gradient the surface, will create wind gusts between 45-60 mph
which is borderline High Wind Warning criteria. However, the
impacts from this event, such as blowing dust and elevated fire
weather conditions, will be bad enough to allow for the issuance
of a High Wind Warning. There was also consideration of a Red
Flag Warning for this event due to the strong winds. However,
minimum relative humidities will be between 20 to 25 percent over
the eastern plains which does not meet the criteria. Nonetheless,
precautions should be taken as any fire that does start will be
able to spread rapidly.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

All of the weather activity from Wednesday afternoon will be
winding down through the evening as the strong upper level jet
slides eastward and heights begin rising over the state. Subsident
forcing under the building ridge should cut off most snow shower
activity in the mountains and begin the process of clearing out
the skies. Surface pressure gradients should also begin relaxing
and winds will diminish as they de-couple from the flow at mid-
levels. Thursday and Friday will then be less windy with gradually
warming temperatures. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of
the week with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across
the plains.

Medium range models show the upper ridge breaking down by Saturday
as the first of a series of Pacific troughs move into the northern
Rockies Friday night. This will bring periods of mountain snow
back to the forecast through the weekend. The upper pattern will
be progressive with pieces of Pacific energy moving through every
24 hours or so. Cooler air is also expected to move back in from
the north, with temperatures through the weekend around seasonal
normals. Another upper disturbance will move through Saturday
night. Snow amounts in the mountains should remain light as the
upper disturbances move across the state rapidly.

Early next week there are indications of a deeper trough carving
out over the western United States, beginning to impact Colorado
by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will keep weather fairly unsettled
and may eventually bring a stronger surge of cooler air to eastern
Colorado in the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 724 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday evening. The winds
are light at all airports through the evening as drainage takes
over. The wind will increase substantially tomorrow. Gusts will
be highest at KDEN and KBJC with peak gusts around 40 knots.
There is a small chance that blowing dust created by the gusty
winds, could reduce visibilities Wednesday afternoon. Due to the
low chance of this, no visibility restrictions are included in the
terminal forecasts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Wednesday for COZ031-033-034.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ038-
042>049.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Cooper



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

 914 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

No significant changes to prev thoughts about late tonight/Wed AM.
Mid level moisture with short wave and while the mid level
saturation increases late tonight/early Wed in the region from
Jamestown to Grand Forks feel any precip will remain quite light
and more trace. Will maintain the low pops and messaging as is for
psbl slick spots in areas where precip may form.

But nothing suggests playing it up any more than that. Upstream in
Montana and in Saskatchewan cloud bases in the 10000-12000 ft
AGL range.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Precipitation amounts and type late tonight into tomorrow morning
will be the primary challenge for the period.

Fairly quiet weather late this afternoon and evening ahead of the
next incoming shortwave currently moving onto the west coast. The
shortwave will move quickly towards the MT/ND border tonight, and
into MN during the day on Wednesday. The surface trough will move
into the western counties by early tomorrow and off to the east
late in the day. The models had been showing some light precip
along the trough axis as it moves through during the morning, then
some more with the cold air coming down into the northwestern
counties during the afternoon. There is some 850mb frontogenetical
forcing going on, and a few of the high resolution models have
some higher simulated reflectivities indicating some banding
potential. However, QPF is pretty minimal in all but one or two
model runs, and RAP model soundings indicate a dry layer to be
overcome. The 12Z NAM was very bullish on low level moisture
pooling along the trough axis, but the 18Z run is much drier and
has very little precip with the morning round. Will continue to
keep chance POPs going with very light to no QPF.

Besides precipitation chances, the type will be in question as
there will be robust warm layer aloft. Temperatures at the surface
continue to be very warm this afternoon, with low 30s over snowy
northwest MN and some mid 40s even over eastern ND. With
southwesterly winds and good mixing down to the surface, think
there will be not a huge amount of drop off after sunset and there
could be even some temps rising above freezing overnight. However,
we will lose surface heating and even liquid rain could encounter
sub freezing road temperatures. Will include a rain/freezing rain
mix as precip moves in during the morning. Colder temperatures
will move in later in the day on Wednesday, so kept a rain/snow
mix but again any amounts look to be minimal. Will continue to
keep a mention of mixed precip but not confident enough to include
any winter headlines at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

On Wednesday night, the main forcing upper level trough moves out of
the region, but low level moisture redevelops as the atmospheric
column cools. Model soundings are indicating an area of low level
sub freezing saturation that persists in the region before slowly
deteriorating as drier air moves in on Thursday. Assuming that the
near surface layer can saturate sufficiently, this setup brings
potential for a range of scenarios from lingering low level cloud
cover to scattered freezing drizzle and/or a light wintry mix on
Wednesday night.

For the second half of the work week, colder air pushes into the
region as a longwave trough aloft digs into the central U.S.
Northerly flow on Thursday night will bring low temperatures back
into the teens and daytime highs primarily into the 20s.

Friday night through Saturday brings the next chance for
precipitation passing through the region. As a rapidly intensifying
Alberta clipper moves from the Canadian Rockies toward the Eastern
Seaboard, the Northern Plains stands poised to receive some
precipitation along and behind the cold front pushing through.
Despite some disagreement in the details, this system looks to bring
more snow than rain, but there is potential for a rain/snow mix.
Most models suggest a transition to snow by early Saturday as strong
cold air advection develops. The highest precipitation chances are
expected for northeast ND and northwest MN. A consensus of
probabilistic guidance suggests a high likelihood of accumulating
snow for most locations by the end of Saturday, with most locations
seeing at least a tenth of an inch and perhaps as much as a third of
an inch or more of liquid equivalent precipitation.

Behind this system, colder air moves in for Sunday and Monday,
perhaps even colder than is currently forecast depending on the
extent of fresh snow cover and strength of trailing cold air
intrusion. This could bring chilling morning low temperatures in the
single digits above and below zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Expect high/mid level moisture to increase overnight with a
south-southwest wind to 10 kts. Winds turning west then northwest
Wed aftn over E ND/RRV should bring in some MVFR cigs mid to late
Wed aftn.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Riddle



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

 908 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Have been watching radar and am seeing the light rain/sprinkles
drifting into northeast Missouri. HRRR has this very light
precipitation continuing to affect northeast Missouri for a few
more hours this evening and overnight, and then lifting northeast
away from our forecast area. Am in the process of updating the
forecast to mention sprinkles for a few hours. Otherwise, the
forecast looks on track for the rest of tonight.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

The main focus in the short term will be the potential for
incoming precipitation late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. High temperature Wednesday could be a bit tricky, pending
increasing cloud cover through the afternoon.

Analysis as of 3pm depicts a surface ridge over the southern end
of the Great Lakes Region, which extends south into the Tennessee
Valley. Plenty of dry air has been funneled in from the east and
southeast around this feature, resulting in mainly clear skies
and mild conditions. Surface temperatures generally ranged from
the mid-40s to lower 50s over Illinois to the mid-50s in central
Missouri.

Mid and upper troughing extends eastward from the central plains
over Missouri and Illinois, marking a gradual shift in flow out
of the south and southwest. Occasional mid and high clouds have
streamed through the area from time to time ahead of this trough,
but thicker cloud cover has made little eastward progress with
deep dry air over the St. Louis area. Cloud cover this afternoon
has been thin and scattered at best. This will likely be the theme
until after nightfall, when low level moisture begin to increase
ahead of the Kansas shortwave and the surface ridge moves east.

The main weather-maker for late Wednesday is currently over
western Texas. This is expected drive northeast through the
Arklatex Region and into the Midwest by Wednesday night. In the
meantime, a surface cold front will extend south from the Upper
Midwest and work into western Missouri. This creates a struggle
in timing the onset of rainfall as the closed low weakens and
ejects northeast ahead of the deepening upper trough. For now, it
looks like slight chances of precip will be introduced over
central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and
just ahead of the surface boundary. Additional rain is expected to
develop from the south in relation to main wave. It is likely
most rain will hold off until after sunset, when moisture finally
deepens through the area. Rain chances increase closer to midnight
and continue into early Thursday morning.

There is likely to be a range in temperature Wednesday afternoon
with a wide spread in ensembles. Low 50s are more probable under
cloud cover in central and northeast Missouri. Outside this, where
there better potential for sunshine, highs could reach the mid to
upper 50s.

Maples

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Much of the activity in the long term lies within the first
several hours of the period. Otherwise, near to slight above
normal temperatures are favored with less certainty in the
potential for precipitation.

An amplified trough will develop almost overhead by Thursday
morning with another closed wave feature taking over in the
southern gulf states. While rainfall is not out of the question
through Thursday morning, much of it will come along the
convergence area along and just ahead of the surface boundary
pushing through from west to east. It`s likely the bulk of the
ascent supporting any widespread rainfall will be south and east
of the metro area as the low continues to broaden over the east
coast through late Thursday into Friday. I wouldn`t be too
surprised to see most of the rain ending between 18z-00z Thursday
afternoon. There`s very little in the way of cold air to work with
as the H8 temps barely touch 0C with the lowest 5k feet of air
well above freezing. So, have little confidence in anything more
than a couple of snowflakes mixing in on the very back edge of the
system. No accumulation is expected.

Upper flow goes zonal through much of the remainder of the period
with a couple of weak pulses moving west to east. While there is
some degree of disagreement in exact long range solutions, there
is a general theme for surface ridging to take over from west to
east from Sunday through late Monday. As the ridge moves east,
return flow kicks in on Christmas Eve with the potential for
additional precipitation to develop late in the day and into
Christmas. There is plenty of spread in how this evolves but
should it materialize, most (if not all) looks to be in the form
of rain with near to above normal temperatures favored through
Christmas Day.

Maples

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

The primary concern for aviation interests tonight is the
possibility that MVFR ceilings may spread into parts of central
and northeast Missouri from the southeast Plains late tonight.
Several short-range models are showing this scenario, but there
are just as many which do not bring the low clouds into our area.
Additionally, the models that are bringing the low clouds in are
not doing very well with the current ceilings over Arkansas and
are much too pessimistic at this time. Have therefore decided to
err on the side of VFR tonight, but will monitor the clouds
closely this evening and update as needed. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail during the daylight hours on Wednesday with
the wind turning to the southwest ahead of a weak cold front.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Will be watching for the potential development of MVFR ceilings
late tonight, but most guidance keeps VFR conditions over the St.
Louis Metro area through sunrise. Wind will be turning to the
southwest ahead of a weak cold front. Lower ceilings will likely
move in Wednesday evening ahead of the front, but confidence is
not high on timing or height of the clouds at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

 844 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.UPDATE...Evening Update.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our best fog potential overnight will be in Northwest Mississippi.
Added areas of fog in the zones, but will hold off and monitor
conditions to see if an Advisory is warranted. The HRRR brings 1/2
mile Visibility into far Southwest portions of our forecast area
from just before sunrise to around mid-morning.

Otherwise the forecast looks to be in good shape. No significant
changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018/


A weak surface high brought another dry and mild day to the
region with high clouds approaching from the southwest. The
surface high will move more to the east tonight while increased
high clouds will provide partly cloudy conditions.

A deep upper trough over west Texas will move eastward and move
across the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An
associated occluded surface low will move across MS during the day
Thursday. Expect rain to increase from the SW late Wed, cover a
large part of the area Wednesday night through Thursday night,
then exit the area early Friday from W to E. Near the surface low
Thursday across north Mississippi, the precipitation will be more
showery with a thunderstorm possible.

The weekend will be dry and seasonal as the upper flow becomes
more zonal. A surface high will be in place Saturday. A weak cold
front will move through the area early Sunday but lack moisture
and dynamics for any precipitation.

Southerly flow will increase early next week while an upper
shortwave provides some showers Monday night into Christmas Day.
Christmas will be somewhat milder than normal but nothing extreme.

SWC

AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

Mainly VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast
period. Some low clouds may move into southern and western
sections of the forecast area overnight and could produce some
MVFR ceilings for a few hours. Winds will be light and variable
tonight and then become more southerly at around 5 knots on
Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 612 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Short term concern remains light mixed precipitation threat
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue with lack of snow cover
and sunshine. This should extend into Wednesday with tonight lows
only dropping off through the upper 20s to low 30s. We should see
thickening clouds ahead of the incoming upper trough. It looks dry
through the night however. The first surge of limited moisture
will affect a portion of west central WI Wednesday morning.
Question of cloud ice development and lower boundary layer
temperatures could yield a light freezing drizzle or snow grains
before temperatures warm enough to generate light rain/drizzle.
QPF looks to be meager with this and the attendant upper trough as
it swings through into Wednesday night. It does appear we could
see a light rain/drizzle or freezing drizzle/light snow mix into
the evening as temperatures cool with trough passage. Again, not
expecting anything heavy, so still anticipate any impacts will be
limited.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

A cooler but dry period ensues through Friday. Both deterministic
models drive another trough through the region Saturday/Saturday
night with the ECMWF a bit slower with its trough progression. It
looks cold enough for just snow with this system, mainly
affecting the northern portion of the CWA.

The GFS and ECMWF diverge on the next system, with the ECMWF
continuing to bring another short wave trough through the
northern states in the Monday night/Christmas Day period. This
would be the CWA`s last chance for reinforcing our chances of a
white Christmas across the CWA. QPF doesnt look too heavy, so
expect anything that does occur should be on the light side. The
GFS retains a baroclinic zone across IA/South Dakota this period,
but does not have this leading short wave. We have retained the
blended guidance PoPs for this period.

What follows could be interesting into midweek. Significant
trough energy is forecast to dive south over the western CONUS and
then develop rather strong cyclogenesis around Colorado/Oklahoma
panhandle region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The ECMWF
has trended toward the GFS in lifting a deepening surface low
northeast into southern MN by next Thursday. This could bring
significant impacts for holiday travel so travelers are urged to
follow the forecast concerning this potential storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Will be VFR tonight, but the main question is what happens with
possible stratus development in Iowa, then how far northwest does
said stratus make it. Indications in forecast soundings would say
we could see stratus as far northwest as STC, but depth of
moisture in GFS soundings is pretty shallow for all but EAU, so
continued trend of bringing MVFR cigs into EAU Wed morning, but
nowhere else. Not anticipating any precip with the stratus, but
in the afternoon, a cold front will be moving into western MN,
with indications that we may see a narrow band of rain move
through AXN, with it approaching STC by 00z.

KMSP...We are still going with a VFR TAF, but MSP is not
completely out of the woods for seeing low stratus Wednesday
morning into the afternoon. GFS soundings show a shallow saturated
layer near the surface developing at about 14z. At the same time,
the HRRR is indicating a stratus deck being nearby. It`s the
shallowness of the moist layer though that kept us going with a
VFR TAF. GFS shows the depth of the moist layer ramping up after
6z Thu, which is when the threat for status really ramps up
Wednesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15G25 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts.
Sat...VFR chc MVFR late. Wind lgt and vrb bcmg WNW 10kts late.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 640 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

Broad upper ridging continues to flatten and become more zonal over
Ontario this afternoon. RAP analysis shows a tightening sfc pressure
gradient over central and eastern Upper Michigan ahead of an quick
moving shortwave trough that has led to gusty southerly winds as
high as 25-35 mph near the Lake Superior shoreline. A shield of high
clouds is building in from the west, with some lower lake effect
clouds off of Lake Michigan over the eastern UP that will be
diminishing this evening as a warmer airmass continues to move in.
With the increased cloudiness and 850 temps increasing to >3C
tonight, overnight lows shouldn`t drop off too much, likely
remaining in the mid to upper 20s inland and low 30s lakeside.

An initially dry airmass will gradually moisten at mid and low
levels through the overnight, with deeper moisture reaching the area
tomorrow afternoon. This dry air will preclude any precipitation
through Wednesday morning. The synoptic pattern amplifies through
the day Wednesday as a deep trough digs through the Plains, and a
weak shortwave will ride up the downstream side of the trough. This
will bring some light precipitation to central and eastern Upper
Michigan by mid-afternoon Wednesday. All of this activity is
expected to be in the form of rain, as temperatures will remain
above freezing up to about 6kft. Only a few hundredths of total
precipitation are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

Incoming amplifying trough (alluded to above) will be responsible
for an influx of moisture, pushing PWATs above median levels for
mid-December. Cold front associated with a weak low crossing
Northern Ontario will be moving through tomorrow night into
Thursday, providing a focus for precip. Out ahead of this front,
rather warm air will be in place, with lows struggling to drop
below the freezing mark tomorrow night, especially across the
eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. Mixing all of this together
yields a very messy forecast, with mixed wintry precip possible
given the thermal profiles. However, even with this influx of
moisture, frozen accumulations look to remain on the low side,
particularly on already dry surfaces, such as roads, given how
warm it`s been as of late. By Thursday night, enough cold air
should have advected into Upper Michigan to yield either N-NW-
driven LES and/or freezing drizzle, with the type highly
dependent on the deepness of the moisture layer, which currently
looks to decrease through the night. Look for precip to come to a
gradual end by Friday night as upper-level ridge axis treks into
the region.

The reprieve from precip chances is brief this weekend as another
low pressure system and its parent shortwave rotates through.
It currently looks cold enough to support straight snow later in
the weekend into early next week, with highs anticipated to top
out in the upper 20s area-wide. Although Christmas is finally
within this forecast period`s view, model solutions diverge enough
to limit confidence in whether or not snow will fall for the
holiday. Latest model runs are on the pessimistic side that the
U.P. won`t see much in the way of precip falling that day, but
there is ample time to refine this forecast as that time
approaches.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

Mid to upper level clouds continue to stream eastward across the
Upper Peninsula, with winds relaxing across the area as the
strongest pressure gradient shifts eastward. Overnight, expect VFR
ceilings, with a scattered group of clouds MVFR clouds included at
KCMX to hint towards the potential development. Wednesday, ceilings
will gradually lower into at least the MVFR category as low to mid
level moisture increases across the area. Have included mentions of
VCSH at KSAW late in the day, where the better, deeper moisture
looks to advect.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 206 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

Southerly winds of 20-30kt have ramped up this afternoon, highest
over central portions of the lake where some gale force gusts have
been observed. These winds have been aided by an area of decent sfc
pres falls passing across northern Ontario/Lake Superior, but this
will quickly pass to the east by this evening. These gale force
gusts will continue over roughly the eastern half of Lake Superior
for the next 2-4 hours. Winds will gradually diminish with gusts
over 30 knots no longer expected after 00Z. Winds will further
diminish to below 20 knots by 06Z. Another trof passage on Thu,
followed by deepening low pres lifting nne into the Lower Great
Lakes on Fri, will lead to a period of stronger northerly winds late
Thu into Fri. The stronger winds will be over central and eastern
portions of the lake once again, up to 30kt. Sfc high pres ridge
nosing s into the Upper Lakes on Sat will result in diminishing
winds.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KCW
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...KCW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

 917 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Light fog has developed in far sern OK this evening with one degree
dewpoint depressions already noted northward to a Poteau to McAlester
line. As forecast, fog will likely develop across much of eastern
Oklahoma tonight. Also, mentioned fog in the AR River Valley across
west central Arkansas as HRRR has been consistent in suggesting fog
also develops there late tonight. Although there was a large break in
the clouds this evening, which allowed temperatures to fall rapidly
shortly after sunset, another area of high clouds is spreading across
the region from the southwest at this time. Still believe the
extensive layered clouds and light south wind across most of the
forecast area tonight will preclude too much in the way of dense fog.
A few light rain showers may develop into far sern OK by daybreak
per HRRR, RAP, 00z NAM, and 18z GFS. Showers have moved into western
North Texas at this time and continue to develop eastward. Updated
forecasts already issued.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69