Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/19/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
738 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018 No significant updates at this time. Timing of current highlights still in tact. Latest RAP shows the best period of snowfall appears to be late tonight into Wednesday morning, approximately 09-15z time frame. Although the snow may taper off, strong gusty winds will produce areas of blow snow and poor visibilities over the mountain passes into the afternoon. Current highlights in the mountains look fine, with strong winds developing across the northeast plains on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018 Another warm and dry afternoon across the CWA has lead to the 12th consecutive day of above normal temperatures in Denver. This quiet weather pattern will be put to an end as a strong jet stream enters Colorado tonight. This jet stream will have peak 200-300 mb winds of 150 knots and will be positioned to the west of the northern mountains late tonight and tomorrow morning meaning that the area will be in the ascent-favored left exit region. This, combined this with strong upslope winds, will help create snow especially across the western and northern slopes of the northern mountains. Since the moist layer is not very deep and the lapse rates are marginal, amounts should be generally light to moderate. One of the most difficult parts of this storm to nail down is determining the snow rates and end time of the snow during the day Wednesday. The aforementioned jet stream will have moved over the eastern plains during the day tomorrow leaving the mountains in the subsident, right exit region of the jet stream. The typically bullish HRRR produces nearly no snow at all in the mountains from 18Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday. I disagree with this solution and have gone with a blend of global models that produce a trace to 2 inches of snow during this time frame. By the end of the snowfall from this system, snow amounts will be on the low end of advisory criteria with 2 to 6 inches expected above 9000 feet with higher amounts on the western and northern slopes. In addition to the snow, there will be strong winds with gusts up to 70 mph possible meaning blowing snow and reduced visiblities will be likely. Consequently, there is high confidence in hazardous travel conditions in this storm and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern mountains and I-70 corridor mountains from 11pm tonight through 5pm Wednesday. The jet streak will also create hazards over the plains. The subsidence from the jet stream and the strong surface pressure gradient the surface, will create wind gusts between 45-60 mph which is borderline High Wind Warning criteria. However, the impacts from this event, such as blowing dust and elevated fire weather conditions, will be bad enough to allow for the issuance of a High Wind Warning. There was also consideration of a Red Flag Warning for this event due to the strong winds. However, minimum relative humidities will be between 20 to 25 percent over the eastern plains which does not meet the criteria. Nonetheless, precautions should be taken as any fire that does start will be able to spread rapidly. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018 All of the weather activity from Wednesday afternoon will be winding down through the evening as the strong upper level jet slides eastward and heights begin rising over the state. Subsident forcing under the building ridge should cut off most snow shower activity in the mountains and begin the process of clearing out the skies. Surface pressure gradients should also begin relaxing and winds will diminish as they de-couple from the flow at mid- levels. Thursday and Friday will then be less windy with gradually warming temperatures. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains. Medium range models show the upper ridge breaking down by Saturday as the first of a series of Pacific troughs move into the northern Rockies Friday night. This will bring periods of mountain snow back to the forecast through the weekend. The upper pattern will be progressive with pieces of Pacific energy moving through every 24 hours or so. Cooler air is also expected to move back in from the north, with temperatures through the weekend around seasonal normals. Another upper disturbance will move through Saturday night. Snow amounts in the mountains should remain light as the upper disturbances move across the state rapidly. Early next week there are indications of a deeper trough carving out over the western United States, beginning to impact Colorado by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will keep weather fairly unsettled and may eventually bring a stronger surge of cooler air to eastern Colorado in the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 724 PM MST Tue Dec 18 2018 VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday evening. The winds are light at all airports through the evening as drainage takes over. The wind will increase substantially tomorrow. Gusts will be highest at KDEN and KBJC with peak gusts around 40 knots. There is a small chance that blowing dust created by the gusty winds, could reduce visibilities Wednesday afternoon. Due to the low chance of this, no visibility restrictions are included in the terminal forecasts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ031-033-034. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ038- 042>049. && $$ UPDATE...Cooper SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Dankers AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
914 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 No significant changes to prev thoughts about late tonight/Wed AM. Mid level moisture with short wave and while the mid level saturation increases late tonight/early Wed in the region from Jamestown to Grand Forks feel any precip will remain quite light and more trace. Will maintain the low pops and messaging as is for psbl slick spots in areas where precip may form. But nothing suggests playing it up any more than that. Upstream in Montana and in Saskatchewan cloud bases in the 10000-12000 ft AGL range. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Precipitation amounts and type late tonight into tomorrow morning will be the primary challenge for the period. Fairly quiet weather late this afternoon and evening ahead of the next incoming shortwave currently moving onto the west coast. The shortwave will move quickly towards the MT/ND border tonight, and into MN during the day on Wednesday. The surface trough will move into the western counties by early tomorrow and off to the east late in the day. The models had been showing some light precip along the trough axis as it moves through during the morning, then some more with the cold air coming down into the northwestern counties during the afternoon. There is some 850mb frontogenetical forcing going on, and a few of the high resolution models have some higher simulated reflectivities indicating some banding potential. However, QPF is pretty minimal in all but one or two model runs, and RAP model soundings indicate a dry layer to be overcome. The 12Z NAM was very bullish on low level moisture pooling along the trough axis, but the 18Z run is much drier and has very little precip with the morning round. Will continue to keep chance POPs going with very light to no QPF. Besides precipitation chances, the type will be in question as there will be robust warm layer aloft. Temperatures at the surface continue to be very warm this afternoon, with low 30s over snowy northwest MN and some mid 40s even over eastern ND. With southwesterly winds and good mixing down to the surface, think there will be not a huge amount of drop off after sunset and there could be even some temps rising above freezing overnight. However, we will lose surface heating and even liquid rain could encounter sub freezing road temperatures. Will include a rain/freezing rain mix as precip moves in during the morning. Colder temperatures will move in later in the day on Wednesday, so kept a rain/snow mix but again any amounts look to be minimal. Will continue to keep a mention of mixed precip but not confident enough to include any winter headlines at this time. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 On Wednesday night, the main forcing upper level trough moves out of the region, but low level moisture redevelops as the atmospheric column cools. Model soundings are indicating an area of low level sub freezing saturation that persists in the region before slowly deteriorating as drier air moves in on Thursday. Assuming that the near surface layer can saturate sufficiently, this setup brings potential for a range of scenarios from lingering low level cloud cover to scattered freezing drizzle and/or a light wintry mix on Wednesday night. For the second half of the work week, colder air pushes into the region as a longwave trough aloft digs into the central U.S. Northerly flow on Thursday night will bring low temperatures back into the teens and daytime highs primarily into the 20s. Friday night through Saturday brings the next chance for precipitation passing through the region. As a rapidly intensifying Alberta clipper moves from the Canadian Rockies toward the Eastern Seaboard, the Northern Plains stands poised to receive some precipitation along and behind the cold front pushing through. Despite some disagreement in the details, this system looks to bring more snow than rain, but there is potential for a rain/snow mix. Most models suggest a transition to snow by early Saturday as strong cold air advection develops. The highest precipitation chances are expected for northeast ND and northwest MN. A consensus of probabilistic guidance suggests a high likelihood of accumulating snow for most locations by the end of Saturday, with most locations seeing at least a tenth of an inch and perhaps as much as a third of an inch or more of liquid equivalent precipitation. Behind this system, colder air moves in for Sunday and Monday, perhaps even colder than is currently forecast depending on the extent of fresh snow cover and strength of trailing cold air intrusion. This could bring chilling morning low temperatures in the single digits above and below zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Expect high/mid level moisture to increase overnight with a south-southwest wind to 10 kts. Winds turning west then northwest Wed aftn over E ND/RRV should bring in some MVFR cigs mid to late Wed aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...BP AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
908 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Have been watching radar and am seeing the light rain/sprinkles drifting into northeast Missouri. HRRR has this very light precipitation continuing to affect northeast Missouri for a few more hours this evening and overnight, and then lifting northeast away from our forecast area. Am in the process of updating the forecast to mention sprinkles for a few hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the rest of tonight. Carney && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 340 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 The main focus in the short term will be the potential for incoming precipitation late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. High temperature Wednesday could be a bit tricky, pending increasing cloud cover through the afternoon. Analysis as of 3pm depicts a surface ridge over the southern end of the Great Lakes Region, which extends south into the Tennessee Valley. Plenty of dry air has been funneled in from the east and southeast around this feature, resulting in mainly clear skies and mild conditions. Surface temperatures generally ranged from the mid-40s to lower 50s over Illinois to the mid-50s in central Missouri. Mid and upper troughing extends eastward from the central plains over Missouri and Illinois, marking a gradual shift in flow out of the south and southwest. Occasional mid and high clouds have streamed through the area from time to time ahead of this trough, but thicker cloud cover has made little eastward progress with deep dry air over the St. Louis area. Cloud cover this afternoon has been thin and scattered at best. This will likely be the theme until after nightfall, when low level moisture begin to increase ahead of the Kansas shortwave and the surface ridge moves east. The main weather-maker for late Wednesday is currently over western Texas. This is expected drive northeast through the Arklatex Region and into the Midwest by Wednesday night. In the meantime, a surface cold front will extend south from the Upper Midwest and work into western Missouri. This creates a struggle in timing the onset of rainfall as the closed low weakens and ejects northeast ahead of the deepening upper trough. For now, it looks like slight chances of precip will be introduced over central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and just ahead of the surface boundary. Additional rain is expected to develop from the south in relation to main wave. It is likely most rain will hold off until after sunset, when moisture finally deepens through the area. Rain chances increase closer to midnight and continue into early Thursday morning. There is likely to be a range in temperature Wednesday afternoon with a wide spread in ensembles. Low 50s are more probable under cloud cover in central and northeast Missouri. Outside this, where there better potential for sunshine, highs could reach the mid to upper 50s. Maples .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Much of the activity in the long term lies within the first several hours of the period. Otherwise, near to slight above normal temperatures are favored with less certainty in the potential for precipitation. An amplified trough will develop almost overhead by Thursday morning with another closed wave feature taking over in the southern gulf states. While rainfall is not out of the question through Thursday morning, much of it will come along the convergence area along and just ahead of the surface boundary pushing through from west to east. It`s likely the bulk of the ascent supporting any widespread rainfall will be south and east of the metro area as the low continues to broaden over the east coast through late Thursday into Friday. I wouldn`t be too surprised to see most of the rain ending between 18z-00z Thursday afternoon. There`s very little in the way of cold air to work with as the H8 temps barely touch 0C with the lowest 5k feet of air well above freezing. So, have little confidence in anything more than a couple of snowflakes mixing in on the very back edge of the system. No accumulation is expected. Upper flow goes zonal through much of the remainder of the period with a couple of weak pulses moving west to east. While there is some degree of disagreement in exact long range solutions, there is a general theme for surface ridging to take over from west to east from Sunday through late Monday. As the ridge moves east, return flow kicks in on Christmas Eve with the potential for additional precipitation to develop late in the day and into Christmas. There is plenty of spread in how this evolves but should it materialize, most (if not all) looks to be in the form of rain with near to above normal temperatures favored through Christmas Day. Maples && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 The primary concern for aviation interests tonight is the possibility that MVFR ceilings may spread into parts of central and northeast Missouri from the southeast Plains late tonight. Several short-range models are showing this scenario, but there are just as many which do not bring the low clouds into our area. Additionally, the models that are bringing the low clouds in are not doing very well with the current ceilings over Arkansas and are much too pessimistic at this time. Have therefore decided to err on the side of VFR tonight, but will monitor the clouds closely this evening and update as needed. VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the daylight hours on Wednesday with the wind turning to the southwest ahead of a weak cold front. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Will be watching for the potential development of MVFR ceilings late tonight, but most guidance keeps VFR conditions over the St. Louis Metro area through sunrise. Wind will be turning to the southwest ahead of a weak cold front. Lower ceilings will likely move in Wednesday evening ahead of the front, but confidence is not high on timing or height of the clouds at this time. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
844 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 .UPDATE...Evening Update. && .DISCUSSION... Our best fog potential overnight will be in Northwest Mississippi. Added areas of fog in the zones, but will hold off and monitor conditions to see if an Advisory is warranted. The HRRR brings 1/2 mile Visibility into far Southwest portions of our forecast area from just before sunrise to around mid-morning. Otherwise the forecast looks to be in good shape. No significant changes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018/ A weak surface high brought another dry and mild day to the region with high clouds approaching from the southwest. The surface high will move more to the east tonight while increased high clouds will provide partly cloudy conditions. A deep upper trough over west Texas will move eastward and move across the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An associated occluded surface low will move across MS during the day Thursday. Expect rain to increase from the SW late Wed, cover a large part of the area Wednesday night through Thursday night, then exit the area early Friday from W to E. Near the surface low Thursday across north Mississippi, the precipitation will be more showery with a thunderstorm possible. The weekend will be dry and seasonal as the upper flow becomes more zonal. A surface high will be in place Saturday. A weak cold front will move through the area early Sunday but lack moisture and dynamics for any precipitation. Southerly flow will increase early next week while an upper shortwave provides some showers Monday night into Christmas Day. Christmas will be somewhat milder than normal but nothing extreme. SWC AVIATION... 00Z TAF cycle Mainly VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast period. Some low clouds may move into southern and western sections of the forecast area overnight and could produce some MVFR ceilings for a few hours. Winds will be light and variable tonight and then become more southerly at around 5 knots on Wednesday. ARS && .AVIATION... && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
612 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Short term concern remains light mixed precipitation threat Wednesday and Wednesday night. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue with lack of snow cover and sunshine. This should extend into Wednesday with tonight lows only dropping off through the upper 20s to low 30s. We should see thickening clouds ahead of the incoming upper trough. It looks dry through the night however. The first surge of limited moisture will affect a portion of west central WI Wednesday morning. Question of cloud ice development and lower boundary layer temperatures could yield a light freezing drizzle or snow grains before temperatures warm enough to generate light rain/drizzle. QPF looks to be meager with this and the attendant upper trough as it swings through into Wednesday night. It does appear we could see a light rain/drizzle or freezing drizzle/light snow mix into the evening as temperatures cool with trough passage. Again, not expecting anything heavy, so still anticipate any impacts will be limited. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 A cooler but dry period ensues through Friday. Both deterministic models drive another trough through the region Saturday/Saturday night with the ECMWF a bit slower with its trough progression. It looks cold enough for just snow with this system, mainly affecting the northern portion of the CWA. The GFS and ECMWF diverge on the next system, with the ECMWF continuing to bring another short wave trough through the northern states in the Monday night/Christmas Day period. This would be the CWA`s last chance for reinforcing our chances of a white Christmas across the CWA. QPF doesnt look too heavy, so expect anything that does occur should be on the light side. The GFS retains a baroclinic zone across IA/South Dakota this period, but does not have this leading short wave. We have retained the blended guidance PoPs for this period. What follows could be interesting into midweek. Significant trough energy is forecast to dive south over the western CONUS and then develop rather strong cyclogenesis around Colorado/Oklahoma panhandle region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The ECMWF has trended toward the GFS in lifting a deepening surface low northeast into southern MN by next Thursday. This could bring significant impacts for holiday travel so travelers are urged to follow the forecast concerning this potential storm system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 612 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 Will be VFR tonight, but the main question is what happens with possible stratus development in Iowa, then how far northwest does said stratus make it. Indications in forecast soundings would say we could see stratus as far northwest as STC, but depth of moisture in GFS soundings is pretty shallow for all but EAU, so continued trend of bringing MVFR cigs into EAU Wed morning, but nowhere else. Not anticipating any precip with the stratus, but in the afternoon, a cold front will be moving into western MN, with indications that we may see a narrow band of rain move through AXN, with it approaching STC by 00z. KMSP...We are still going with a VFR TAF, but MSP is not completely out of the woods for seeing low stratus Wednesday morning into the afternoon. GFS soundings show a shallow saturated layer near the surface developing at about 14z. At the same time, the HRRR is indicating a stratus deck being nearby. It`s the shallowness of the moist layer though that kept us going with a VFR TAF. GFS shows the depth of the moist layer ramping up after 6z Thu, which is when the threat for status really ramps up Wednesday night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15G25 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts. Sat...VFR chc MVFR late. Wind lgt and vrb bcmg WNW 10kts late. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
640 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 206 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018 Broad upper ridging continues to flatten and become more zonal over Ontario this afternoon. RAP analysis shows a tightening sfc pressure gradient over central and eastern Upper Michigan ahead of an quick moving shortwave trough that has led to gusty southerly winds as high as 25-35 mph near the Lake Superior shoreline. A shield of high clouds is building in from the west, with some lower lake effect clouds off of Lake Michigan over the eastern UP that will be diminishing this evening as a warmer airmass continues to move in. With the increased cloudiness and 850 temps increasing to >3C tonight, overnight lows shouldn`t drop off too much, likely remaining in the mid to upper 20s inland and low 30s lakeside. An initially dry airmass will gradually moisten at mid and low levels through the overnight, with deeper moisture reaching the area tomorrow afternoon. This dry air will preclude any precipitation through Wednesday morning. The synoptic pattern amplifies through the day Wednesday as a deep trough digs through the Plains, and a weak shortwave will ride up the downstream side of the trough. This will bring some light precipitation to central and eastern Upper Michigan by mid-afternoon Wednesday. All of this activity is expected to be in the form of rain, as temperatures will remain above freezing up to about 6kft. Only a few hundredths of total precipitation are expected. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018 Incoming amplifying trough (alluded to above) will be responsible for an influx of moisture, pushing PWATs above median levels for mid-December. Cold front associated with a weak low crossing Northern Ontario will be moving through tomorrow night into Thursday, providing a focus for precip. Out ahead of this front, rather warm air will be in place, with lows struggling to drop below the freezing mark tomorrow night, especially across the eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. Mixing all of this together yields a very messy forecast, with mixed wintry precip possible given the thermal profiles. However, even with this influx of moisture, frozen accumulations look to remain on the low side, particularly on already dry surfaces, such as roads, given how warm it`s been as of late. By Thursday night, enough cold air should have advected into Upper Michigan to yield either N-NW- driven LES and/or freezing drizzle, with the type highly dependent on the deepness of the moisture layer, which currently looks to decrease through the night. Look for precip to come to a gradual end by Friday night as upper-level ridge axis treks into the region. The reprieve from precip chances is brief this weekend as another low pressure system and its parent shortwave rotates through. It currently looks cold enough to support straight snow later in the weekend into early next week, with highs anticipated to top out in the upper 20s area-wide. Although Christmas is finally within this forecast period`s view, model solutions diverge enough to limit confidence in whether or not snow will fall for the holiday. Latest model runs are on the pessimistic side that the U.P. won`t see much in the way of precip falling that day, but there is ample time to refine this forecast as that time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 640 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018 Mid to upper level clouds continue to stream eastward across the Upper Peninsula, with winds relaxing across the area as the strongest pressure gradient shifts eastward. Overnight, expect VFR ceilings, with a scattered group of clouds MVFR clouds included at KCMX to hint towards the potential development. Wednesday, ceilings will gradually lower into at least the MVFR category as low to mid level moisture increases across the area. Have included mentions of VCSH at KSAW late in the day, where the better, deeper moisture looks to advect. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 206 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018 Southerly winds of 20-30kt have ramped up this afternoon, highest over central portions of the lake where some gale force gusts have been observed. These winds have been aided by an area of decent sfc pres falls passing across northern Ontario/Lake Superior, but this will quickly pass to the east by this evening. These gale force gusts will continue over roughly the eastern half of Lake Superior for the next 2-4 hours. Winds will gradually diminish with gusts over 30 knots no longer expected after 00Z. Winds will further diminish to below 20 knots by 06Z. Another trof passage on Thu, followed by deepening low pres lifting nne into the Lower Great Lakes on Fri, will lead to a period of stronger northerly winds late Thu into Fri. The stronger winds will be over central and eastern portions of the lake once again, up to 30kt. Sfc high pres ridge nosing s into the Upper Lakes on Sat will result in diminishing winds. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...Ritzman MARINE...KCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 .DISCUSSION... Light fog has developed in far sern OK this evening with one degree dewpoint depressions already noted northward to a Poteau to McAlester line. As forecast, fog will likely develop across much of eastern Oklahoma tonight. Also, mentioned fog in the AR River Valley across west central Arkansas as HRRR has been consistent in suggesting fog also develops there late tonight. Although there was a large break in the clouds this evening, which allowed temperatures to fall rapidly shortly after sunset, another area of high clouds is spreading across the region from the southwest at this time. Still believe the extensive layered clouds and light south wind across most of the forecast area tonight will preclude too much in the way of dense fog. A few light rain showers may develop into far sern OK by daybreak per HRRR, RAP, 00z NAM, and 18z GFS. Showers have moved into western North Texas at this time and continue to develop eastward. Updated forecasts already issued. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69